Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/26/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
906 AM MST FRI JUL 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL MOIST MONSOON REGIME EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WHICH WAS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TWO REMNANT MCV`S ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA...EMBEDDED WITH A LARGE AXIS OF 1.6-1.8 INCH PWATS. TO THE
WEST REMAINED A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S...PWATS ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
REMAINED SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER /ONLY AROUND 1-1.1 INCHES/.
STORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY...CERTAINLY ACROSS SONORA GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL
MCV`S. HOWEVER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERTS OF CENTRAL
ARIZONA...STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIM GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH ALL LOCAL MODELS /WHICH ARE TYPICALLY PRETTY
AGGRESSIVE/ AND SPC SSEO INDICATE A QUIET DAY. ONLY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING STORMS MAKING A RUN AT THE DESERTS IS THE NCAR HI-RES
ENSEMBLE. GIVEN THESE DATA...I`M GOING TO MAKE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO
THE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HIGHLIGHT THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...AS WELL AS A
SMALL AREA ACROSS NW PINAL AND SW MARICOPA COUNTY. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. AS FOR DUST...SAW
SOME PATCHY AREAS THAT DEVELOPED ON THURSDAY BUT IF STORMS REALLY
DEVELOP AS FAR AWAY AS THEY`RE FORECAST /I.E. OVER THE MOUNTAINS VS
THE DESERTS/...WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REDUCE VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS THIS MORNING INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONSOON SHOWERS BUT
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...IN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AZ. WE DO STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SOME BLOWING DUST. THIS SITUATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A BIT OF DRYING OVER THE
WEEKEND. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO ALIGN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE ENTIRE REGION AND THUS A LIKELY INCREASE IN
STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA ESPECIALLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AM WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT VARIABLE HEADINGS AND BROAD WEST
SFC FLOW. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CIGS TO PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY
THINNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. OUTSIDE CHANCE STILL REMAINS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PHX METRO WITH MOST LIKELY
IMPACT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED BLOWING DUST PSBLY INTO
THE TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE ANY VSBY REDUCTION OR DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT IN THE
TAFS SO FAR THIS AM...BUT PSBL INCLUSION IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH OF
THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO AVIATION CONCERNS
DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE MAY BE AN INTRUSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
ELEVATED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THIS IS STILL
UP FOR DEBATE IN THE ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW I MAINTAINED CLIMO-LIKE POPS
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR HUMIDITIES...EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON READINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. HUMIDITIES WILL
GRADUALLY CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
MAINTAIN TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY PATTERNS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/WATERS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
822 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
WINDS HAVE LESSENED ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO BELOW THE 25 MPH
THRESHOLD WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED SO HAVE
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES DEVELOPED LATER TODAY AROUND 4 PM OVER THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
ATYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON IN A COUPLE OF WAYS...NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
AS OF 19Z. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT A STORM OR TWO WILL POP OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROMPTLY MOVE EAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DOMINATED THIS JULY...SO THE LACK OF
STORMS SEEMS OUT OF PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS TODAY BUT
HARDLY A SCORCHER. OUTSIDE OF MONUMENT VALLEY...NO TEMP SENSOR
HAVE REACHED 90F BY 1 PM. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET SUMMER DAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500 MB VORTICITY STREAMS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
BUT THE MOISTURE SHIELD REACHING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN COLORADO FROM THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY
AND BREEZY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND A 60 KT JET
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A BURLY PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND BRUSH ALONG THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE ENHANCED WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN UT/CO BOUNDARIES THANKS TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A 60 KT JET ALOFT. ASSUMING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN DRY
OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
FOR DAYS...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DO LOOK PROBABLE IN NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL HUG THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS SO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE NAM IS BRINGING A SOLID ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE WY/UT/CO
BORDER ON TUESDAY LINED UP WITH THE ULJ WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE
KEEPING THIS ENERGY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS ENERGY STAYS IN
WYOMING BUT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY ALONG THE WY/UT/CO BORDER.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB ISOBARS SHOW CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THAT LEVEL OVER WESTERN KS...WESTERN OK...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX
WHICH WOULD STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE GULF.
SIGNAL LOOKS SLIGHTLY MONSOONAL AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT THE MAJORITY OF TAF SITES WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z
AND HAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFFECTING KTEX. MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 BEING AFFECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR FIRE ZONE 200 REMAINS IN
EFFECT DUE TO 60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IN PLACE AND DRY AIR
REMAINING OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO WHILE MAINLY STRATIFORM
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM WELL SOUTH OF MOFFAT COUNTY.
ALSO THE WATCH FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 200 201 202 AND 203
REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCIES ON
FORECAST WINDS AND LOW RH FOR MONDAY AS A TROUGH BRUSHES BY THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER. ON MONDAY CERTAIN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA MAY
POTENTIALLY BE BATTLING WITH TOO MUCH MOISTURE FROM SUNDAYS
SHOWERS BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY.
SINCE ITS JUST A WATCH DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH
SUCH A DEFINED FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE SW AS
THE MONSOON REPOSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY ERODE THE DRYER MID LEVEL DECK THROUGH THE DAY ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR AND LATEST NAM THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME RAINSHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE METRO AREA. INCREASED POPS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS TREND.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
INHIBITING HEATING BUT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING CLOSE TO 1 INCH
BY 22Z BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAINSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK TODAY TO HIT
THE LOWER 90S SO DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGES FROM AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA TO 0.9 INCH AT PUEBLO. AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...THOUGH THERE IS BETTER
MOISTURE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THAT WILL KEEP IT FROM DRYING
TOO MUCH FURTHER EAST. WITH CONTINUED HOT AIR ALOFT...THE LOW
LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIMITED TODAY. EXPECT THAT MOST OF OUR ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL MOISTENING GENERATING WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE
BASED STORMS IN THE BETTER MOISTURE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
AGAIN...CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG STILL LIMITED BY THE WARMTH ALOFT
THOUGH SO NOT TOO MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS ACRS NERN
COLORADO EARLY ON SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE APPEARS TO
TEMPORARILY DIVERT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE FCST AREA ALLOWING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA. WARMING ALOFT TOGETHER WITH FALLING PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS T-STORM FORMATION EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD PROVIDE A
HEALTHY BOOST TO TEMPS ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING
ONLY TO SEE WARMING SLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SHIFT TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW. ITS THIS REVERSAL IN FLOW THAT WILL
CONCENTRATE LATE DAY CONVECTION ALBEIT LIMITED TO THE PALMER DVD
AND SRN FTHLS. GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING MOST LIKELY
MAIN PRODUCTS OF THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY TO BE 3-4DEG C ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS RIDGE IS FCST TO STRENGTH
WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DRIVES ANOTHER
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SRN
COLORADO BY MORNING AND OVER NERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY AND VERTICAL MOTION MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THICKENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODEST
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WHILE UPPER LEVELS MOISTEN...A
S-SWLY BNDRY LAYER FLOW APPEARS TO KEEP THE SUB-CLOUD/BNDRY LAYER
RELATIVELY DRY. EVEN SO...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED T-STORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL EXCEED AN
INCH. THERE/S A REMOTE CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS ON THE E-CNTRL
PLAINS...SUCH AS IN ERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPS OF SUNDAY
ONLY A DEG OR TWO COOLER EVEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE TALL UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS
PROGGED TO MIGRATE EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO
STRENGTHENS SOME ON MONDAY WHICH AIDS IN DRIVING A BIT MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP ACRS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WILL
BRUSH THE SERN CORNER OF THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LATE DAY T-STORMS. MONDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE
WARMEST READINGS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MID 90S ON THE
PLAINS...LOWER 80S IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND 60S/70S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH
RACING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND AS IT PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO EARLY THAT MORNING. WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY ARRIVING ABOUT 6 HRS LATER. THAT
SAID...THIS COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO
STABLE FOR STORMS ON THE PLAINS THAT DAY...BUT BY EVENING
MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. LOOK FOR
TEMPS ON TUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS 3-4DEG C
BELOW AVERAGE. REST OF THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW A DRIER...MORE
STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE AROUND TO A NORTHERLY PUSH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING BACK SW AS FLOW INCREASES FROM THAT DIRECTION. ACCORDING
TO LATEST HRRR THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL START TO ERODE THAT
COULD INTRODUCE SOME RAINSHOWERS INTO THE AIRPORTS. DO NOT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BUT WILL UPDATE AT TAF TIME TO INCLUDE IN
A TEMPO GROUP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT GUSTING TO 25 WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1057 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER ISOLATED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHRA
AND TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OFF THE ALY 00Z SOUNDING ARE
SUBDUED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE CAPE...WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR. EVEN SO...WITH TSRA ONGOING
UPSTREAM AND RAP SHOWING SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...SOME TSRA LIKELY.
SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR NIL GIVEN NOTED WEAK PARAMETERS.
ONCE AGAIN HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADD SOME VALUE TO THE GRIDS BY USING
THE HRRR TO TIME PRECIP IN AND ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO UPDATING POPS AND WEATHER ALSO REFRESHED
OBSERVATIONS TO BRING INTO AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT READINGS.
SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT OUR REGION /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90/.
IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES.
INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE
PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND
SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE
TERRITORY FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW...NOT TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 70S AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.
TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.
WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.
IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.
FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.
WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.
MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1009 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY...THEN PASSES JUST EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL NY...AND AS A
WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN
ZONES AND INTO CT LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST HRRR MODEL
HAS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE
LOCAL CWA...BUT WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. THESE SHORTWAVES COUPLED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE...SO DO NOT
EXPECT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF BLEND
FOR POPS...THINKING THE GFS MIGHT BE A TAD OVERDONE WITH ITS
PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS DEW
POINTS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES IN AND AROUND NYC. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LINGERING TROUGH BOTH ALOFT AND
AT THE SFC WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING TUE
THROUGH WED. UPSTREAM TROUGH THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT SETTLES NEARBY OR JUST EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP
NEARBY...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WHEREAS THE GFS TRACKS THIS WEAKENING FRONT TO THE EAST FRI
AND SAT. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES NOTED...FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER LOW.
IN GENERAL...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY
DUE TO AVBL CAPE...AND PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK. ANY STORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING.
THEN DRY AND INCREASING HOT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUE THROUGH WED.
SOME INSTABILITY NOTED...BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR CLASHES WITH THE STEAMY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
PROB FOR CONVECTION WANES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
WEAKENING FRONT. CONFIDENCE LOW AS NOTED ABOVE.
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WED AND THU SHOULD BE
THE HOTTEST DAYS. HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL
THOSE TWO DAYS. THIS SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH THU. MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE WED AND
THU.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT...READINGS FALL BACK
SLIGHTLY...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO CT. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS AS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A SHRA/TSRA TO PASS OVER THE
TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL INTRODUCE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. MVFR
AND POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS IN ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
S/SE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL
RESULT IN S WINDS 10-20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. 5-6SM HAZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS
AND BRING SEAS UP TO 4 FT.
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
AS WEAK FRONT GIVES WAY TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
OCEAN SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
BUT POSSIBLE SWELL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BUILDING 5 FOOT SEAS WED NIGHT AND THU PER WAVE WATCH.
HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERDO SEAS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD OBSERVE TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE MON THROUGH THU PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SLOW MOVING STORMS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
802 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW
INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BATCH OF LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CWA NOW.
UPSTREAM TWO AREAS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION -TSRA-
NOTED...JUST WEST OF ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BETTER INSTABILITY IN THESE REGIONS THAN OVER
ALY CWA WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG VS SUB 250 HERE. AND WHILE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR NIL
HERE...THE SHOWALTER INDEX DOES SLIDE BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. SO RELYING ON HRRR TIMING HAVE
UPDATED POP GRIDS TO BRING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. MESONANALYSIS SHOWS
PWATS WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ZONE TO BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES...SO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT OUR REGION /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90/.
IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES.
INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE
PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND
SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE
TERRITORY FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW...NOT TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 70S AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.
TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.
WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.
IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.
FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.
WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.
MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
811 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.AVIATION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WERE IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THIS MORNING...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE
NEAR THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AND ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR BEST TIMING OF STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. IN GENERAL, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS, WILL DRIFT SOUTH, TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA DRIFTING AROUND THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND, HAS A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER NORTH FLORIDA, AND
DEEPENING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHILE GENERALLY OVER LAND.
WHILE THE GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME, EITHER WILL MEAN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
MORE BASED ON THE WIND, WHICH WILL INDICATE THE AREAS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST, PUSHING MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, GENERALLY
PUSHING THE CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA,
ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL AREAS STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
FOR TODAY, GIVEN THE WEST FLOW, THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREA OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SEE THE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NAM MODELS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MBE VECTORS FOR THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, THIS COULD MEAN URBAN TYPE FLOODING, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS, WHICH HAVE POOR
DRAINAGE. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING WAS RIGHT
AROUND 16K FT. ALSO, THE 500MB TEMP WAS RIGHT AROUND -7C. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR HAIL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE NCAPE TO BE AROUND .15. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THERE WILL A
MIX OF PULSE TYPE STORMS AND SOME CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. IT IS THOSE LONGER LASTING CELLS
THAT MAY HAVE SOME CHANCE AT PRODUCING EVEN SMALL HAIL, ALTHOUGH
IT WOULD BE A SLIM CHANCE. VERY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE 0-3KM BEING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM.
ABOVE THIS, THE LAPSE RATES DROP, WITH THE 3-6KM LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 C/KM. THESE WOULD BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIE
OF YEAR. THERE IS ALSO A BROAD 500MB TROUGH SITTING OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. SO, CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINING
AREAS, INCLUDING THE GULF COAST. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY HEAVY
RAIN, WITH LIGHTENING, AND POSSIBLY SOME WET DOWNBURSTS.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING, AND PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE WESTERN LAKE REGION SEEING THE
CONVECTION FIRST. IT THEN SHOWS THE COASTAL REGIONS SEEING
CONVECTION AROUND 19Z. OF COURSE THIS TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS THE MODEL UPDATES, BUT IT GIVES A
GENERAL IDEA OF HOW THE DAY MAY UNFOLD.
AVIATION...
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SCT TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 16Z AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST SO PLACED VCTS FOR ALL THOSE TERMINALS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY MAINLY BTWN 18-22Z. THE
WESTERLY WIND WILL ALSO PREVENT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP WHICH MAY ALSO LIMIT CONVERGENCE SO ANOTHER REASON FOR
ONLY MENTION OF VCTS AT THIS TIME.
KOB
MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
1-2 FT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 75 / 70 30 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 78 92 77 / 70 30 50 40
MIAMI 92 78 92 78 / 70 20 40 30
NAPLES 91 80 86 80 / 30 60 70 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PORTION F THE FORECAST IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. IN GENERAL, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS, WILL DRIFT SOUTH, TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA DRIFTING AROUND THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND, HAS A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER NORTH FLORIDA, AND
DEEPENING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHILE GENERALLY OVER LAND.
WHILE THE GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME, EITHER WILL MEAN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
MORE BASED ON THE WIND, WHICH WILL INDICATE THE AREAS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST, PUSHING MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, GENERALLY
PUSHING THE CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA,
ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL AREAS STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
FOR TODAY, GIVEN THE WEST FLOW, THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREA OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SEE THE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NAM MODELS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MBE VECTORS FOR THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, THIS COULD MEAN URBAN TYPE FLOODING, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS, WHICH HAVE POOR
DRAINAGE. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING WAS RIGHT
AROUND 16K FT. ALSO, THE 500MB TEMP WAS RIGHT AROUND -7C. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR HAIL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE NCAPE TO BE AROUND .15. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THERE WILL A
MIX OF PULSE TYPE STORMS AND SOME CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. IT IS THOSE LONGER LASTING CELLS
THAT MAY HAVE SOME CHANCE AT PRODUCING EVEN SMALL HAIL, ALTHOUGH
IT WOULD BE A SLIM CHANCE. VERY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE 0-3KM BEING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM.
ABOVE THIS, THE LAPSE RATES DROP, WITH THE 3-6KM LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 C/KM. THESE WOULD BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIE
OF YEAR. THERE IS ALSO A BROAD 500MB TROUGH SITTING OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. SO, CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINING
AREAS, INCLUDING THE GULF COAST. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY HEAVY
RAIN, WITH LIGHTENING, AND POSSIBLY SOME WET DOWNBURSTS.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING, AND PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE WESTERN LAKE REGION SEEING THE
CONVECTION FIRST. IT THEN SHOWS THE COASTAL REGIONS SEEING
CONVECTION AROUND 19Z. OF COURSE THIS TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS THE MODEL UPDATES, BUT IT GIVES A
GENERAL IDEA OF HOW THE DAY MAY UNFOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SCT TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 16Z AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST SO PLACED VCTS FOR ALL THOSE TERMINALS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY MAINLY BTWN 18-22Z. THE
WESTERLY WIND WILL ALSO PREVENT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP WHICH MAY ALSO LIMIT CONVERGENCE SO ANOTHER REASON FOR
ONLY MENTION OF VCTS AT THIS TIME.
KOB
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
1-2 FT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 94 76 88 75 / 50 30 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 78 92 76 / 50 20 50 20
MIAMI 94 79 91 76 / 50 20 40 20
NAPLES 90 81 85 78 / 30 50 60 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
852 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE HAS BECOME SHALLOW BEHIND A LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY DRY AIR
UPSTREAM. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE NEARNESS OF THE
FRONT SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE NAM INDICATES
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE CSRA WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5.
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A NORTH OR
NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS LOW. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOPING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SC/GA COAST SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST.
THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DISPLAY UPPER TROUGHING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME SURFACE
TROUGHING WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION WILL RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MOS HAS LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN IMPROVEMENT. LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WITH THE TIMING OF A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION SUPPORTS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE MOISTURE HAS BECOME SHALLOW BEHIND
A LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MAINLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. IF
THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO DEVELOP THEN DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AIDING
DOWNDRAFTS COULD SUPPORT STRONG WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG DEVELOPING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR
STRATUS OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015/
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED. UPDATED THE POPS EARLIER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR
AND HRRR TRENDS. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.
ALSO...UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING SE. THIS WAVE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST
BY 06-12Z FRI. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE STATE FRIDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA FRI. TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA
FRI WITH SOME 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
01
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT EXTENDED PORTION IN GREAT SHAPE AS MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA
INITIALLY LEAVING OUR LOCAL AREA MUCH DRIER THAN CLIMO FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CONSEQUENTLY POPS FOR SUN ARE QUITE LOW WITH NIL
POPS FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ONLY SMALL POCKETS
OF ISOLATED. AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE UPPER HIGH
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MON AND TUE TIMEFRAME BUT AGAIN OVERALL
GRIDS LOOKS IN GREAT SHAPE.
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE LEAVES THE AREA IN BETWEEN MAJOR
WEATHER SYSTEMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT RESIDUAL HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT SUGGESTS HIGH END CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ALSO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES FOR THE CENTRAL
GEORGIA PORTION.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREAS OF IFR OVER THE ATL/CSG AREAS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE
AHN/MCN AREAS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSRA WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE CSG/MCN AREAS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30
FROM 18Z TO 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST IN THE AHN BY EVENING...AND THE ATL AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON DURATION OF CIGS THIS MORNING
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 71 91 71 / 30 30 20 5
ATLANTA 90 72 91 73 / 30 30 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 85 65 86 63 / 30 30 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 91 71 91 70 / 30 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 95 75 96 74 / 40 40 20 10
GAINESVILLE 89 70 89 72 / 30 30 20 10
MACON 95 73 95 71 / 50 40 20 10
ROME 93 70 93 70 / 30 30 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 91 71 92 71 / 30 30 20 10
VIDALIA 93 74 93 73 / 70 60 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 60S. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN INTO GREAT LAKES REGION IN NW
FLOW AND VIS SAT SHOWING EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION RESULTING IN PLEASANT SEASONABLE
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL TREND OUR AREA TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND
GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
COLD FRONT...TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTENING A SOUTH-CENTRAL US
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL WEAKEN SSE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING LIKELY PASSES NORTH
AND WANES BY PEAK HEATING...THOUGH FOLD OVER OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE AND NEAR 70F SFC DEWPOINTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE MAIN FRONT OR LEADING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BY MID AFTN-EARLY EVE. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS FOR 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
MID LEVEL JET WORKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LOOKS TO STALL JUST
SSW OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WEAK
WNW FLOW WILL HELP FOCUS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS FEATURE. THIS PLACES AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THE US
30 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA FOR BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING NE INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF RENEWED WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER
HUMIDITY/WARMER TEMPS TO BUILD IN BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH BY LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT/CALM WINDS TO THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY ALLOWING A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT ANY LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE AND NOT AFFECT KSBN GIVEN SOME
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWEST GRADIENT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU BASED BETWEEN 4-5K FT DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. SFC HIGH SHOULD SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW
FOR SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST INDIANA JUST
AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY FOR TERMINALS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LOGSDON
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IT WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE DAY TODAY. ALOFT THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD SOME BUT WILL HAVE
BETTER SUCCESS TO THE WEST LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
STATE BUT WILL ONLY BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO THIRDS BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS WILL BRING THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA WITH
BORDERLINE INDICES OF AROUND 105. THE CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THIS
HANDLED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT ADVISORY.
AS FOR PRECIP...HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
PRECIP TRENDS. THE HRRR IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ON POP TRENDS. THE
NAM12 AND NAMDNG HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL SO I TRIED TO KEEP
TRENDS TIED TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE IN MINNESOTA HAS EEKED INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE CONVECTION WILL
TRAVEL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DOES
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER
SUNRISE AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY I FELT IT WARRANTED TO AT
LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CHANCES.
BY AFTERNOON CAPES SKYROCKET TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 J/KG SO THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AROUND. AFTER THIS
MORNING...SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF HOWEVER AND DEEP SHEAR IS NOT
PRESENT. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR APPEAR TO BE
NORTH AND EAST EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTHWEST.
STILL...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. I THINK THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
CONVECTION WILL BE EXPANDING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
OVERALL FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT
WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR TO HELP WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE WEAK CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MAIN THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 12KFT OR SO
WILL HELP RAINFALL EFFICIENCIES OVERNIGHT.
SOME REMAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A RESPITE FROM CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SKIRTING NORTHERN IOWA. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ROBUST IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGES UPON THE BOUNDARY
AT PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
MODEST SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED WITH
NEARBY BOUNDARY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HYDRO ISSUE BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN WITH RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING THE SOILS TO
MOISTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. SHOULD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIFT CONVECTION TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS BY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CAPPING AND HOT/HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THIS AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS IOWA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY
MIDWEEK ALONG WITH THE NEXT BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 18Z...LINE OF TSRA PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KOTM. AS SYSTEM
PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD...CLOUDS BREAKING UP OVER KFOD...KMCW...AND
KALO. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING NEAR KMCW
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MAY NEED TO ADD TS TO KALO TAF AROUND 02Z
TO 05Z SAT TIMEFRAME. INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS
IMPACTING KDSM AND KOTM. MAY NEED TO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IF MOD
TO HEAVY PRECIP PANS OUT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GUTHRIE-RINGGOLD-SAC-TAYLOR-UNION.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IT WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE DAY TODAY. ALOFT THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD SOME BUT WILL HAVE
BETTER SUCCESS TO THE WEST LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
STATE BUT WILL ONLY BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO THIRDS BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS WILL BRING THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA WITH
BORDERLINE INDICES OF AROUND 105. THE CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THIS
HANDLED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT ADVISORY.
AS FOR PRECIP...HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
PRECIP TRENDS. THE HRRR IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ON POP TRENDS. THE
NAM12 AND NAMDNG HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL SO I TRIED TO KEEP
TRENDS TIED TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE IN MINNESOTA HAS EEKED INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE CONVECTION WILL
TRAVEL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DOES
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER
SUNRISE AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY I FELT IT WARRANTED TO AT
LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CHANCES.
BY AFTERNOON CAPES SKYROCKET TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 J/KG SO THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AROUND. AFTER THIS
MORNING...SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF HOWEVER AND DEEP SHEAR IS NOT
PRESENT. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR APPEAR TO BE
NORTH AND EAST EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTHWEST.
STILL...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. I THINK THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
CONVECTION WILL BE EXPANDING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
OVERALL FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT
WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR TO HELP WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE WEAK CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MAIN THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 12KFT OR SO
WILL HELP RAINFALL EFFICIENCIES OVERNIGHT.
SOME REMAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A RESPITE FROM CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SKIRTING NORTHERN IOWA. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ROBUST IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGES UPON THE BOUNDARY
AT PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
MODEST SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED WITH
NEARBY BOUNDARY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HYDRO ISSUE BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN WITH RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING THE SOILS TO
MOISTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. SHOULD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIFT CONVECTION TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS BY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CAPPING AND HOT/HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THIS AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS IOWA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY
MIDWEEK ALONG WITH THE NEXT BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO STATE LATER TODAY BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING WHERE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN VERY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMCW.
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT AND CONSOLIDATE OVERNIGHT INTO A COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN IOWA.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA NEAR THE STORMS
COMPLEX. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT EASES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GUTHRIE-RINGGOLD-
SAC-TAYLOR-UNION.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IT WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE DAY TODAY. ALOFT THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD SOME BUT WILL HAVE
BETTER SUCCESS TO THE WEST LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
STATE BUT WILL ONLY BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO THIRDS BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS WILL BRING THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA WITH
BORDERLINE INDICES OF AROUND 105. THE CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THIS
HANDLED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT ADVISORY.
AS FOR PRECIP...HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
PRECIP TRENDS. THE HRRR IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ON POP TRENDS. THE
NAM12 AND NAMDNG HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL SO I TRIED TO KEEP
TRENDS TIED TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE IN MINNESOTA HAS EEKED INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE CONVECTION WILL
TRAVEL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DOES
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER
SUNRISE AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY I FELT IT WARRANTED TO AT
LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CHANCES.
BY AFTERNOON CAPES SKYROCKET TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 J/KG SO THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AROUND. AFTER THIS
MORNING...SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF HOWEVER AND DEEP SHEAR IS NOT
PRESENT. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR APPEAR TO BE
NORTH AND EAST EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTHWEST.
STILL...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. I THINK THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
CONVECTION WILL BE EXPANDING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
OVERALL FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT
WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR TO HELP WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE WEAK CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MAIN THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 12KFT OR SO
WILL HELP RAINFALL EFFICIENCIES OVERNIGHT.
SOME REMAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A RESPITE FROM CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SKIRTING NORTHERN IOWA. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ROBUST IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGES UPON THE BOUNDARY
AT PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
MODEST SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED WITH
NEARBY BOUNDARY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HYDRO ISSUE BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN WITH RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING THE SOILS TO
MOISTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. SHOULD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIFT CONVECTION TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS BY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CAPPING AND HOT/HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THIS AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS IOWA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY
MIDWEEK ALONG WITH THE NEXT BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE STATE. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY IN FAR NORTHERN IOWA
WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY BUT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GUTHRIE-RINGGOLD-
SAC-TAYLOR-UNION.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
841 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO HAVE COME TO AN END SO A DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MID MORNING
SUNDAY.
FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THREAT FOR FOG...DENSE AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. 00Z NAM AND RUC BRINGING IN
RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER RH FROM BOTH MODELS BECOMES SATURATED
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
DEWPOINTS...BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT UNDER A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR FOG. NAM/RUC/HRRR
VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL SHOW SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTIONS AND DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE. NO HIGHLITES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AND BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO A COUPLE DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER WAS PERSISTENT THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL. ALOFT...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ONCE AGAIN AS A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SIGNALS HAVE BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT THIS EVENING WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE FEATURE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FIRE ON IS CURRENTLY IN EAST COLORADO. THEREFORE...MADE A
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS
SLIDE EAST...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS...2000-
4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM AND DCAPE
NEAR 1500 J/KG INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF A
FAVORABLE SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT WITH A VERY LARGE HAIL
ENVIRONMENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SUPERCELLS BUT WITH A LESS UNSTABLE
AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FEEL THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAIL IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS TODAY ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS ALSO LIKELY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER READINGS ARE 1.50" TO 2.00"...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...LESS THAN 15 KTS...AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING WILL ALSO HEIGHTEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FOR TOMORROW...ANTICIPATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS A MORE
DISTINGUISHABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONE AGAIN POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX READINGS. DECIDED TO PROCEED WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
100S. ALSO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEWPOINTS TO DECREASE AS FAST AS
SUGGESTED BY A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE. AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT
TREND...VERY HUMID CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 100-107 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALSO PULL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NW U.S. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE U.S. FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE PLAINS RETROGRADES AND
DEVELOPS INTO A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS STATES AT THE SURFACE WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK UP INTO THE 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ANTICIPATED A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ESTABLISHING THEMSELVES FROM
THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON SOME GUSTS OF 15-20KTS POSSIBLE. A PRETTY GOOD WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE KGLD TERMINAL FROM THE WEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SUPPORTING A VCTS
MENTION FROM 22Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KMCK THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE TERMINAL SO NO PRECIP
MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ004-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
QUIET AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA. THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BOUNDARY
ACROSS WESTERN NE WITH TOWERING CUMULUS ALREADY DEVELOPING. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FORMING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD. THESE STORMS
MAY ONLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NE BEFORE
WEAKENING. ONLY THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY GOING INTO CENTRAL KS. THERE IS A LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS THAT VEERS THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KS ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DRY AIR WHERE THE
LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
TO BE FAR SOUTHEAST KS. THIS GIVES ME LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR
NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR WESTERN NE CONVECTION REACHING THE AREA AND OR
ELEVATED PRECIP FORMING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH
25-30 C BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEW POINTS STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN FAR EASTERN KS. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER MIXING IN CENTRAL
KS THAT NOSES INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD CAUSE THE
DEW POINTS TO DECREASE DURING PEAK HEATING BUT WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS THE MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM 106-111, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS
PRECIP FORECAST. CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ FOCUSES A LITTLE BETTER TO THE WEST BEFORE
VEERING WITH TIME AND CONVERGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL HAVE TO BATTLE AGAINST PERSISTENT CAP AT 700MB. WITH THIS
PATTERN WOULD ANTICIPATE STORMS TO MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY AND
WILL DRAW UP RAIN CHANCES AS SUCH. NAM AND GFS BRING A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
LITTLE STRONGER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WOULD LIKELY SEE A
BREAK IN PRECIP IN THE MID TO LATE DAY BEFORE STORMS COME IN FROM
THE WEST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONCE AGAIN FOCUSING BETTER TO
THE NORTH. AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST...THE RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES IN ITS WAKE...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE DROPPED TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE PERIODIC IMPACTS ON THE HEAT...HOWEVER
FOR SATURDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS THINK ITS A GOOD BET THAT HEAT
INDICIES WILL RISE BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD CATCH MORE OF A
BREAK. NOT EXTENDING THE ADVISORY PRODUCT AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THINK SUNDAY WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT FROM CONVECTION NEAR
THE AREA...AND DON`T CURRENTLY HAVE ADVISORY INDICES IN THE
FORECAST.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE MONDAY HELPS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER FEW HOT DAYS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY A NICE COOL DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THE CONVECTION WILL REACH MHK BEFORE WEAKENING. 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE MVFR CIG AND OR VIS DEVELOPING
AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO STAY
VFR. CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY
PREVENT MHK FROM THE POSSIBLE HAZE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
AREA OF EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. KTXK/KELD/KMLU SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITES
AFFECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AREAWIDE. SFC
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ESPECIALLY
AT KTXK/KSHV/KELD/KMLU BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.
THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 77 100 76 99 / 10 20 10 10
DEQ 73 98 74 99 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 76 100 77 100 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 76 99 76 99 / 10 20 10 10
TYR 78 100 78 99 / 10 0 0 10
GGG 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 0 10
LFK 75 98 75 98 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. KTXK/KELD/KMLU SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITES
AFFECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AREAWIDE. SFC
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ESPECIALLY
AT KTXK/KSHV/KELD/KMLU BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.
THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 77 100 76 99 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 73 98 74 99 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 76 100 77 100 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 76 99 76 99 / 20 20 10 10
TYR 78 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 78 101 78 100 / 0 10 0 10
LFK 75 98 75 98 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CARIBOU ME
1007 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS.
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE: NO REAL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. 500MB
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT ARE PUSHING INTO VERMONT AT THIS HOUR.
LATEST HRRR HAS RAIN SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN BORDER OF CWA AROUND
11Z. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH SREF
SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES BELOW 100 J/KG...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY FOR THE CHANCE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
630 PM UPDATE: SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING HAPPENING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE THE VERY SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500MB CURRENTLY MOVING
AHEAD. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE ENDED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PUSHING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT ALLOWING FOR
THE MARINE LAYER TO FINALLY PUSH OUT. HAVE TRENDED CLOUD COVER
DOWN A LITTLE TONIGHT...AND TWEAKED TEMPS A LITTLE...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE WAY TO MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT, AS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS AN AREA OF STRATUS DRIFTING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, STARTS TO REDEVELOP AND
ADVECT BACK TOWARD THE DOWN EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVE TOWARD
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARD THE AREA. THE SKY MAY BRIGHTEN A BIT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC BNDRY LOOKS TO ENCROACH ON MAINE FM THE WEST AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM. FORWARD PROGRESS IS ESSENTIALLY HALTED AS IT HEADS EAST
DRG THE OVRNGT AS H8 FLOW WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT ANY HINT OF BNDRY.
S/WV IN H5 FLOW WL PUSH THRU BTWN 00Z AND 06Z MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
EXITING OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS TIME. FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AFT THIS
TIME AND SRLY FLOW AT SFC WL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDS TO ENTIRE
CWA THRU 12Z MON. AREAS OF FOG WL LKLY DVLP AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN DRIZZLE WITH LTR
UPDATES.
SFC TROF SNEAKS SLOWLY IN FM CANADA DRG THE DAY MON WITH NAM
OVERDONE, AS USUAL, WITH CAPE VALUES APPCH 3000 J/KG. GFS IS TAMER
WITH CAPES SOMEWHERE ARND 700 J/KG TO AS HIGH AS 1000 OVR DOWNEAST
ZONES ASSUMING SHOWERS CAN DVLP THAT FAR RMVD FM BNDRY. THUS, HV
LIMITED THUNDER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTERIOR HIGHLANDS AFT 18Z
MONDAY WITH JUST SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EARLY MRNG HRS WL START OFF WITH
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST AS SRLY FLOW CONTS TO PUMP MARINE LAYER
IN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. EXPECT FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 16Z MON.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY WL WARM TO NR/SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL IN THE M/U 70S
ACRS THE NORTH TO ARND 80 OVR DOWNEAST.
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO SLIP THRU LATE MON NGT/TUE MRNG
WITH CHC FOR LOCHC SHOWERS OVRNGT INCRSG TO HICHC TWD 18Z TUE. FRONT
WL WORK ON UNSTABLE AIRMASS, MAINLY OVR SERN ZONES THRU THE AFTN TUE
AND EXPECT THUNDER CHCS TO INCRS AS UPR LVL WV ROTATES ACRS CWA.
HIGHS ON TUE WL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MON ACRS THE FAR NORTH AS
BNDRY WL HV ALREADY MVD THRU IN THE MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT, AND WED THRU
THU AM ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE NICE ACROSS THE CWA AS A SFC HIGH AND
UPPER RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THU PM AND THU NIGHT, WITH CHC POPS
INTRODUCED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THAT TIME. LIKELY TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT, SO THUNDER WAS PUT IN THU
PM THRU FRI PM. FRONT LIKELY BEGINS TO CLEAR THE CWA LATE FRI AM,
THOUGH SLGT CHC AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED THRU 00Z SAT AS THE
UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC
TROF OR WEAK SECONDARY FRONT. POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING SOME SHWRS LATER SAT, BUT POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT KEPT ANY WIDESPREAD CHC OR LKLY POPS OUT OF THE CWA.
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY WED AND THU THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND S`LY WINDS THU AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES TO THE EAST. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT ON THU AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A HIT TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAGNITUDE OF THE DECREASE IS STILL NOT VERY
CLEAR...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT NOT TOO SEVERE.
HOWEVER, IF THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND KEEPS MORE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP AROUND FRI INTO SAT, THAT COULD HURT TEMPS POST FRONT
MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR
AND EVEN SOME LIFR TOWARD MORNING IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LGT SHOWERS, FOG AND
DRIZZLE AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM THRU MON MRNG. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE
FOR MVFR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY ACROSS TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF FRONT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/DUMONT/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/DUMONT/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WV IMAGERY RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PAC NW TO THE
GREAT LAKES ATOP A RIDGE OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE OR REMNANTS OF THE MCV FROM EARLIER TODAY THAT BROUGHT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH UPPER MI HAS LIMITED
SFC HEATING AND KEPT MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. CLEARING WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEST WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-
1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR WEST. A SHRTWV OVER NRN MN ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT INTO NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.
EXPECT THAT THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1K J/KG.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV EDGING INTO UPPER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP BTWN 21Z-00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT
AND STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV ARRIVES...TSRA COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED. ANY REMAINING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE
CWA AFTER 06Z WITH CLEARING MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. SUNSHINE AND MIXING WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 16C
SUPPORT MAX READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS
FAVORED BY NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS 00Z
SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ON SUN AND HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING IN FOR MON. WILL HAVE IT DRY INTO THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY
BEFORE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING
INTO FRI. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL ON THU AND
FRI. WITH THE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE AREA...HARD TO RULE OUT
PCPN AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH WED AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ON THU AND FRI WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTRUBANCE MOVES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING...ONLY MENTIONED VCTS FOR NOW. CIGS AND/OR VSBY
COULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY
AT CMX. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WRLY 15-20KTS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUE KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 15KTS. ANY FOG OVER LAKE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...- NONE -
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
132 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN SRN CANADA. A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS WELL
IDENTIFIED IN WV IMAGERY LIFTING INTO ACROSS FAR SW ONTARIO...ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE. A SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED SOUTH OF THIS LOW...THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NE. AN AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BURIED
UNDERNEATH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...FED BY A 45KT
LLJ. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A POCKET OF STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH WAS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN/NE IOWA ON THE NOSE OF THE
STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION. SHALLOW RIDGING AND AN AXIS OF DRIER
AIR WAS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL UPPER AND LAKE MICHIGAN...AND INGESTING
MOST ALL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD.
ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THERE WERE SOME PRE-DAWN LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS NE LOWER...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ILL-
DEFINED WARM FRONT/AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS ORIGINATING
FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORCING WAS VERY MINIMAL ALONG THIS
FRONT...WHICH WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LEFT NRN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER SUNNY SITUATION TO START OUT THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF DRY
AIR WILL SETTLE IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE THE
LEAD VORT MAX FROM FAR SW ONTARIO DAMPENS...AS IT LIFTS INTO LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. DESPITE OVERALL SLOWLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER -
DIVQ ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD FOCUS ON A
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE ACROSS NE LOWER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE/RADAR. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN...WHILE
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE ON THIS FRONT
AS IT MAKES IT`S WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. JUST HOW MUCH
CONVECTION CAN BE SUSTAINED AFTER NIGHTFALL IS THE MAIN FORECAST
QUANDRY.
THERE IS GROWING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION BEING SUSTAINED...MEANING
MANY FOLKS COULD GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING WITH
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY PORTRAYED IN THE MODEL WORLD...THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DOES SUGGEST SOME LEFT EXIT
JET DYNAMICS. BEST CHANCES/FORCING APPEAR TO BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...BUT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS (MUCAPES IN UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG) ROLLING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AN ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE THIS EVENING...DUE TO A QUICK UPTICK IN A
LLJ...SUGGESTING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS
AT AROUND 6-8 KFT...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ACB
AND GOV IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL ELUDE TO SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU 12Z.
WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO...PUTTING US
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE (850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING PAST PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK OF JUST GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWOODS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
(7/25)SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 12Z AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA, 21Z-ISH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN BY 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS DOES THE 500 MB
RIDGE WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SQUASHES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE MODELS SET UP A "RING OF FIRE" SOUTH OF US.
(7/26)SUNDAY...THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND LOOKS TO DO THAT FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH SETS
UP THE NEXT FEW DRY DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" JULY PATTERN
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK. HERE ARE THE DETAILS... THE HIGH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OVERNIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY, EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SWITCH AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
...POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING EAST...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WSW/SW WINDS...WHICH HAVE BECOME A BIT GUSTY UP TO 18 KTS.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS SEEN UPSTREAM FROM MINNESOTA TO
NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRACK TOWARD NRN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR PER UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A BETTER CHANCE
AT MVFR/IFR COMES WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD MIX OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. DESPITE PRETTY DECENT
STABILITY OVER THE LAKES...LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE WATER SFC
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW LOWER
SHORELINE AND MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST/NW THROUGH
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN SRN CANADA. A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS WELL
IDENTIFIED IN WV IMAGERY LIFTING INTO ACROSS FAR SW ONTARIO...ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE. A SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED SOUTH OF THIS LOW...THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NE. AN AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BURIED
UNDERNEATH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...FED BY A 45KT
LLJ. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A POCKET OF STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH WAS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN/NE IOWA ON THE NOSE OF THE
STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION. SHALLOW RIDGING AND AN AXIS OF DRIER
AIR WAS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL UPPER AND LAKE MICHIGAN...AND INGESTING
MOST ALL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD.
ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THERE WERE SOME PRE-DAWN LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS NE LOWER...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ILL-
DEFINED WARM FRONT/AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS ORIGINATING
FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORCING WAS VERY MINIMAL ALONG THIS
FRONT...WHICH WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LEFT NRN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER SUNNY SITUATION TO START OUT THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF DRY
AIR WILL SETTLE IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE THE
LEAD VORT MAX FROM FAR SW ONTARIO DAMPENS...AS IT LIFTS INTO LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. DESPITE OVERALL SLOWLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER -
DIVQ ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD FOCUS ON A
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE ACROSS NE LOWER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE/RADAR. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN...WHILE
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE ON THIS FRONT
AS IT MAKES IT`S WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. JUST HOW MUCH
CONVECTION CAN BE SUSTAINED AFTER NIGHTFALL IS THE MAIN FORECAST
QUANDRY.
THERE IS GROWING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION BEING SUSTAINED...MEANING
MANY FOLKS COULD GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING WITH
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY PORTRAYED IN THE MODEL WORLD...THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DOES SUGGEST SOME LEFT EXIT
JET DYNAMICS. BEST CHANCES/FORCING APPEAR TO BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...BUT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS (MUCAPES IN UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG) ROLLING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AN ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE THIS EVENING...DUE TO A QUICK UPTICK IN A
LLJ...SUGGESTING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS
AT AROUND 6-8 KFT...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ACB
AND GOV IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL ELUDE TO SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU 12Z.
WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO...PUTTING US
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE (850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING PAST PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK OF JUST GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWOODS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
(7/25)SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 12Z AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA, 21Z-ISH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN BY 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS DOES THE 500 MB
RIDGE WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SQUASHES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE MODELS SET UP A "RING OF FIRE" SOUTH OF US.
(7/26)SUNDAY...THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND LOOKS TO DO THAT FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH SETS
UP THE NEXT FEW DRY DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" JULY PATTERN
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK. HERE ARE THE DETAILS... THE HIGH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OVERNIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY, EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SWITCH AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE OF LWR
MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON...PLANTING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF APN EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT
DRY WX THRU EARLY EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM NW TO SE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...THUS WILL
LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AT PLN/TVC/MBL AFTER
03Z...AND AT APN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. DESPITE PRETTY DECENT
STABILITY OVER THE LAKES...LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE WATER SFC
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW LOWER
SHORELINE AND MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST/NW THROUGH
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
651 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS
AT AROUND 6-8 KFT...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ACB
AND GOV IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL ELUDE TO SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU 12Z.
WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO...PUTTING US
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE (850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING PAST PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK OF JUST GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWOODS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
(7/25)SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 12Z AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA, 21Z-ISH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN BY 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS DOES THE 500 MB
RIDGE WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SQUASHES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE MODELS SET UP A "RING OF FIRE" SOUTH OF US.
(7/26)SUNDAY...THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND LOOKS TO DO THAT FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH SETS
UP THE NEXT FEW DRY DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" JULY PATTERN
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK. HERE ARE THE DETAILS... THE HIGH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OVERNIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY, EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SWITCH AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE OF LWR
MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON...PLANTING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF APN EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT
DRY WX THRU EARLY EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM NW TO SE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...THUS WILL
LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AT PLN/TVC/MBL AFTER
03Z...AND AT APN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS
AT AROUND 6-8 KFT...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ACB
AND GOV IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL ELUDE TO SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU 12Z.
WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO...PUTTING US
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE (850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING PAST PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK OF JUST GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWOODS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
(7/25)SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 12Z AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA, 21Z-ISH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN BY 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS DOES THE 500 MB
RIDGE WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SQUASHES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE MODELS SET UP A "RING OF FIRE" SOUTH OF US.
(7/26)SUNDAY...THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND LOOKS TO DO THAT FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH SETS
UP THE NEXT FEW DRY DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" JULY PATTERN
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK. HERE ARE THE DETAILS... THE HIGH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OVERNIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY, EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SWITCH AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE OF LWR
MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON...PLANTING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT DRY WX THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED... THUS
WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AT PLN/TVC/MBL AFTER
03Z...AND AT APN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A COUPLE OF MCVS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY OVER SODAK ARE
NOW DRIFTING OVER MN...BUT ENCOUNTERING DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
AS THEY DO SO...SO THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN
AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS. THE AREA TO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH IS CENTRAL SODAK OUT BY MILLER AND CHAMBERLAIN WHERE SEVERAL
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP. THIS REGION IS ALSO AT THE
EDGE OF A CAPPING EML. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AROUND 21/22Z AND WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. H85 THETA-E GRADIENT...H7
THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-H3 THICKNESSES ALL POINT TO THIS ACTIVITY
BUILDING SE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WORKING DOWN TO OR EVEN SW OF DES
MOINES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE MPX CWA IS THAT WE
ARE LIKELY TO GET NOTHING MORE THAN A GRAZING FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN BEING SW OF THE MN
RIVER IN SW INTO SC MN. THIS IDEA IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL-
WRF AND THE HOP-WRF MEMBERS. THE HRRR SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR AS
WELL...THOUGH THINK IT BRINGS ACTIVITY TOO FAR NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
FOR THE MPX AREA...OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE
WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SPARK
SOME ACCAS TYPE ACTIVITY IN WRN MN...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR IOWA...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DEVELOPMENT UP HERE.
FOR SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT WE WILL NOT
SEE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL WITH DEWPS INCREASING BACK INTO
THE 70S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE MPX CWA...FORCING WILL BE DECIDEDLY
LACKING. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR US IS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL HAVE RISING H5
HEIGHTS ALL DAY. IN ADDITION TO THAT...ANY SORT OF WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN DOWN IN IOWA...SO WE WILL NOT HAVE THAT TO HELP
WITH FORCING DEEP CONVECTION EITHER. IN THE END...RETAINED SOME 30
POPS OR LESS...BUT TRIMMED THAT MENTION DOWN TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MN RIVER. IN GENERAL THOUGH...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD...THOUGH
WARM/HUMID SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE MPX CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY IS THAT OF
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TUESDAY IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. LOCALLY MN/WI BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
WITH A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BL FLOW BUT NO PRONOUNCED TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. 700MB TEMPS AREN`T OVERLY WARM...SO THE CAPPING
ISN`T OVERLY STRONG...THIS IS WHY WE THINK THE GFS TRIES TO
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST ARE ON MONDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF
ARE DRIER IN MID-LEVELS...SO WE THINK THE POP SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE EITHER.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...PWATS THAT
APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE
925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...WE COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT
THE VERY LEAST CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN
THE UPPER 80S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS SOLID BY TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST OFF TODAY`S MODEL
RUNS. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KABR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT IS TRANSITIONING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. IT IS APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IT WILL IMPACT
RWF TO SOME EXTENT BETWEEN 03-06Z...BUT WHETHER IT IS A DIRECT HIT
FROM THE STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS OR THE NORTHERN
STRATIFORM RAIN IS STILL UNCERTAIN. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THAT
TIME AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
NEEDED. IT DOES APPEAR ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS LINE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF I-94...SO THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
KMSP...CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR KABR SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
MSP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATIFORM RAIN LATE TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON ITS PRECISE TRACK AND WHETHER IT CAN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS ALSO IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF IT AT KCOU ARE SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG
AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40KTS. HAVE INCREASE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI. HAVE ALSO KEPT CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
ASCENT, AND THE RAP IS SHOWING AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GOING TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS REMAIN THE KEY QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE
BASICALLY ONLY TWEAKED THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT`S POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS BREAKS DOWN TO 30-50% CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA PUSHING CAPE
VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO FIRE THOUGH COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A DECENT CAP.
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT WITH THE HIGH
INSTABILITY THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE CONCERNED WITH MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE`LL GET WARM ENOUGH TO
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FOR SATURDAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105. ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...OR
POSSIBLY DROPPED IF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN
EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR
STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF OF
SATURDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO BE REINFORCED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE WANING QUICKLY THOUGH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER IOWA WILL DROP SOUTH AND MAY AFFECT KCOU
AND KUIN, BUT HAVE NOT ADDED THEM TO THE TAFS YET BECAUSE OF
TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS. THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COMPLEX
WILL REACH THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS
IT IS MORE STABLE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR BR
OR HZ OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT IT TO BE PATCHY. MAY BE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT 30 HOURS, MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING,
AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS.
BRITT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 77 92 77 91 / 10 50 50 50
QUINCY 72 89 73 88 / 40 50 50 50
COLUMBIA 75 93 74 91 / 30 40 40 40
JEFFERSON CITY 75 94 75 92 / 30 40 40 40
SALEM 69 90 74 89 / 10 30 40 40
FARMINGTON 71 90 72 89 / 10 30 30 30
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-
WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1126 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
THERE STILL MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING
WHERE THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN CLOSE TO THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. ONCE WE GET PAST
DAYTIME HEATING, THINK IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES IN FROM KANSAS SUPPLYING SOME SUBSIDENCE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE WRF AND RAP AREA NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR INSTABILITY THAT WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM MID EVENING ONWARD. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURES.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
PINNING DOWN THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AND INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY A BIT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH REMANTS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED BENEATH THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. SCENARIO ISN`T ONE THAT FAVORS A LOT IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION, BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE OZARKS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/OROGRAPHIC LIFT
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED CELLS.
CONCERN FOR CONVECTION INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND;
FIRST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO MIGRATE OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SUGGESTS A RING
OF FIRE PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
CONVECTION WILL GET INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
FIRST RIPPLE IN THE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WAA IS PROGGED TO COMMENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND ALL MODELS BEGIN TO HINT AT SOME PRECIP IN
OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH NAM AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS QPF. NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE CONVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL MORE
ROUNDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHILE GFS IS SLOWER WITH PRECIP
PUSHING INTO OUR AREA, AND FOCUSES IT SOUTHWARD SURGE OF QPF IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
OBVIOUSLY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC POP
TRENDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A MYRIAD OF ILL-DEFINED FEATURES
(EXTREMELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, SEVERAL BOUTS OF WEAK
NOCTURNAL JET FORCING, AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT TO
OUR NORTH THAT WILL BE BEAT SOUTH BY SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES)
THAT COULD PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA. AS
NOTED BY WFO EAX EARLIER TODAY...THIS UPCOMING PATTERN IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT THE CENTRAL CONUS EXPERIENCED ABOUT A WEEK AGO.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED GOING FORECAST
TRENDS WHICH INDICATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMPING UP INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. IN TRUTH, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS OF MUCH HIGHER
AND MUCH LOWER POPS, BUT THOSE ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE
WHEN SHORT-TERM TRENDS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR.
OTHER CONCERN IS INCREASING LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH THIS INCREASE WILL BE FELT
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW, PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE IN
THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME WHEN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WELL IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY TO HOW OPPRESSIVE IT
WILL BECOME, AND THIS WILL BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND
CLOUDINESS THE AREA EXPERIENCES. IF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ARE AT A
MINIMUM, HEAT INDICIES OF 105 WILL BE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF MID
MISSOURI. AGAIN, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WITH THE
ABOVE PARAMETERS, SO WILL LET MID SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE
HOISTING ANY HEADLINES.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...ALONG WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SOME REMNANTS OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE
REGION. POPS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER BY MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE BREAKS
DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA.
TRUETT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
LIGHT EAST WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH LINGERING SC OVER KSUS
AND KCPS, FEEL THAT LITTLE OR NO FOG IS EXPECTED, SO LEFT MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
LIGHT EAST WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
845 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO ADDRESS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. FIRST...EXPANDED POPS IN THE WEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO WESTERN ZONES...AS FAR SOUTH AS LIVINGSTON. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WAS TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND THE CAP LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG. CONCERNS STARTED WITH
NOTICING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE ABOVE THE INVERSION.
CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWED SOME INDICATION THAT THE TAIL END OF THE
WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND MAINLY NORTH OF US WOULD
SLIDE THROUGH THE EAST IN THAT GENERAL TIME RANGE.
ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AT 850-700MB. FINALLY...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR MODEL IS
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST FOR THE SAME APPROXIMATE TIME
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS...COULD NOT
IGNORE POTENTIAL FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE INHERITED
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AAG
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES TO CREATE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON
DISTURBANCE...THINGS WILL DRY OUT OVERNIGHT. AS THE MAIN TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA
TOMORROW...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME INSTABILITY
EXISTS SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG AGAIN.
MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLICE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE QUICKLY CYCLOGENESIS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DRAG AND STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONTAL TIMING HAS SPED UP OVER PAST FEW
RUNS WITH THE FRONTAL GETTING INTO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH BILLINGS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE WESTERN ZONES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE EAST WILL BE MUCH WARMER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. THE EAST
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY AND THUS COULD HAVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT ROLLS IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EAST BASED ON THIS. WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE WINDY TOO BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A DECENT SHOWERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS
HAVE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
REIMER/TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
TUESDAY...WILL BE A COOL AND WINDY DAY. 850MB WINDS WERE STILL
PEGGED AT 40KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL PREVENT SOME OF THIS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE UPPER LOW WAS
POSITIONED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...SO THE TREND LOOKS TO BE
DRIER. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL FALL TOO...GIVEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN
CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP ADVERTISING POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE HELD INTO THE 70S WITH GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD FALL OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEATHER WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A
QUIETER PATTERN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT FLATTENED. THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY
AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SATURDAY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCE TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.
TWH/REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WEST AND NORTH OF KBIL THROUGH
06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF KBIL AFTER
06Z...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FROM KMLS EAST AFTER 09Z. LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/091 061/076 052/075 053/086 058/092 061/093 062/092
11/B 24/T 42/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
LVM 054/090 055/070 047/073 047/084 052/090 054/091 056/089
23/T 35/T 53/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
HDN 058/095 058/082 051/077 051/088 056/094 058/095 061/094
11/B 23/T 42/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
MLS 063/096 064/089 054/075 053/087 059/094 062/096 063/094
21/B 22/T 42/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
4BQ 062/096 063/092 054/076 053/086 058/093 060/095 062/092
21/B 22/T 32/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
BHK 060/094 062/091 054/074 052/083 056/090 058/092 060/089
22/T 22/T 42/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
SHR 055/094 056/086 049/073 047/083 052/090 055/091 057/089
12/T 22/T 22/W 01/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
839 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO ADDRESS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. FIRST...EXPANDED POPS IN THE WEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO WESTERN ZONES...AS FAR SOUTH AS LIVINGSTON. THE BIGGER CHANGE
WAS TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND THE CAP LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG. CONCERNS STARTED WITH
NOTICING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE ABOVE THE INVERSION.
CLOSER INSPECTION SHOWED SOME INDICATION THAT THE TAIL END OF THE
WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND MAINLY NORTH OF US WOULD
SLIDE THROUGH THE EAST IN THAT GENERAL TIME RANGE.
ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AT 850-700MB. FINALLY...NOTICED THAT THE HRRR MODEL IS
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST FOR THE SAME APPROXIMATE TIME
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS...COULD NOT
IGNORE POTENTIAL FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE INHERITED
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AAG
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES TO CREATE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON
DISTURBANCE...THINGS WILL DRY OUT OVERNIGHT. AS THE MAIN TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA
TOMORROW...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME INSTABILITY
EXISTS SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG AGAIN.
MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLICE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE QUICKLY CYCLOGENESIS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DRAG AND STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONTAL TIMING HAS SPED UP OVER PAST FEW
RUNS WITH THE FRONTAL GETTING INTO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH BILLINGS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE WESTERN ZONES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE EAST WILL BE MUCH WARMER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. THE EAST
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY AND THUS COULD HAVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT ROLLS IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EAST BASED ON THIS. WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE WINDY TOO BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A DECENT SHOWERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS
HAVE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
REIMER/TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
TUESDAY...WILL BE A COOL AND WINDY DAY. 850MB WINDS WERE STILL
PEGGED AT 40KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL PREVENT SOME OF THIS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE UPPER LOW WAS
POSITIONED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...SO THE TREND LOOKS TO BE
DRIER. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL FALL TOO...GIVEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN
CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP ADVERTISING POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE HELD INTO THE 70S WITH GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD FALL OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEATHER WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A
QUIETER PATTERN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT FLATTENED. THE AREA WILL SEE A DRY
AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SATURDAY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCE TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.
TWH/REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MOSTLY AT BIL AND LVM ANYTIME
FROM 22-03Z. KEPT VCTS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD YIELD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TEMPORARILY WITH HEAVY RAIN, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/091 061/076 052/075 053/086 058/092 061/093 062/092
11/B 24/T 42/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
LVM 054/090 055/070 047/073 047/084 052/090 054/091 056/089
23/T 35/T 53/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
HDN 058/095 058/082 051/077 051/088 056/094 058/095 061/094
11/B 23/T 42/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
MLS 063/096 064/089 054/075 053/087 059/094 062/096 063/094
21/B 22/T 42/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
4BQ 062/096 063/092 054/076 053/086 058/093 060/095 062/092
21/B 22/T 32/W 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
BHK 060/094 062/091 054/074 052/083 056/090 058/092 060/089
22/T 22/T 42/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
SHR 055/094 056/086 049/073 047/083 052/090 055/091 057/089
12/T 22/T 22/W 01/U 11/U 11/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IMPACTING
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 25.18Z NAM
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
BETTER THAN 40-45KTS OF DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. IN
ADDITION...THE OPERATIONAL EMC RAP INDICATES ONLY A WEAK CAP
PRESENT. BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHEN LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA PROMOTES UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO A MCS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN IF THE
SOLUTION VERIFIES AS PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1.75" ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT REMAINS MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE...SO HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS AT CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK FRONT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION THIS
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CAP
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
STORM CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY WESTERN
SANDHILLS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO EXIST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...LEAVING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN OF LOWER TO MID-90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER APPARENT TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA ACROSS OUR ZONES. WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KTS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WEST OF VTN THROUGH BBW.
DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BTWN THE NAM AND GFS...INCREASED POPS TO
30-40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCE TRACK NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
WORK INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN ZONES.
ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND
MOVED POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RETURN OF
MOISTURE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY. COVERAGE HOWEVER LOOKS ISOLATED
AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 92 TO 98 MONDAY...COOLING TO LOWER
80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THEN MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS AND WILL
NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12000
FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TODAYS CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE ECM AND HRRR-CR
MODELS. THE MCS WHICH WORKED THROUGH SWRN NEB AND NCNTL KS
THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A RAIN COOLED MESO HIGH WHICH WOULD FORCE
SOME THE VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR WEST TOWARD IMPERIAL AND THIS
PROCESS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AT 07Z. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WRN NEB WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE KS BORDER. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION
FORMING OVER NERN COLO THIS AFTN AND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE KS BORDER. THIS CONVECTION COULD MERGE TO FORM A MCS WHICH
WOULD TRACK EAST THROUGH SRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS ECM AND NAM ALSO SHOW PARTS OF NCNTL NEB DESTABILIZING
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEB.
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE WITH A
BELT OF 40 KT TO 50 KT 300MB WINDS OVERHEAD. SBCAPE IN THE ECM
RISES TO AROUND 3500J/KG. THE NAM SHOWS 4000+ SBCAPE AND NO CAP
ONCE AGAIN...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECM WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG I-80.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION COULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING OR MOVING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE KS BORDER
AND A 30KT 850MB JET OVER WRN KS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ACTIVE AND WARM WEEKEND. RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE
A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND THEN LIFT
TO S CENTRAL CANADA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL SEND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE OHIO/TENNESSE RVR
VALLEYS.
SATURDAY MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A SFC
LOW OVER WESTERN S DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PLAINS. VERY
HUMID AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH/SEMI DRY LINE WITH DEW PTS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. BEHIND THE TROUGH DEW PTS AROUND
60. MORNING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS
DEPARTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LINGER IN THE CWA. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS FOR
ACTIVITY TO FIRE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DECENT CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
GOOD SHEAR. SHOULD SEE SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIDE TO THE EAST HOWEVER WILL STILL
SEE A DRY LINE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DRY LINE COULD BE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MODELS NOT AS ACTIVE UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH
NOTICABLY COOLER TEMPS...MID 80S...HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE AND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS.
STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE PRIMARY AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REVOLVES AROUND THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL. STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE
LATEST AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM12
SOLUTION HAVE LARGELY PICKED UP ON THIS...AND THUS USED FOR THE
FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
SUGGESTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS HIGHEST
CENTERED ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TODAYS CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE ECM AND HRRR-CR
MODELS. THE MCS WHICH WORKED THROUGH SWRN NEB AND NCNTL KS
THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A RAIN COOLED MESO HIGH WHICH WOULD FORCE
SOME THE VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR WEST TOWARD IMPERIAL AND THIS
PROCESS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AT 07Z. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WRN NEB WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE KS BORDER. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION
FORMING OVER NERN COLO THIS AFTN AND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE KS BORDER. THIS CONVECTION COULD MERGE TO FORM A MCS WHICH
WOULD TRACK EAST THROUGH SRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS ECM AND NAM ALSO SHOW PARTS OF NCNTL NEB DESTABILIZING
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEB.
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE WITH A
BELT OF 40 KT TO 50 KT 300MB WINDS OVERHEAD. SBCAPE IN THE ECM
RISES TO AROUND 3500J/KG. THE NAM SHOWS 4000+ SBCAPE AND NO CAP
ONCE AGAIN...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECM WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG I-80.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION COULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING OR MOVING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE KS BORDER
AND A 30KT 850MB JET OVER WRN KS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ACTIVE AND WARM WEEKEND. RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE
A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND THEN LIFT
TO S CENTRAL CANADA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL SEND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE OHIO/TENNESSE RVR
VALLEYS.
SATURDAY MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A SFC
LOW OVER WESTERN S DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PLAINS. VERY
HUMID AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH/SEMI DRY LINE WITH DEW PTS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. BEHIND THE TROUGH DEW PTS AROUND
60. MORNING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS
DEPARTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LINGER IN THE CWA. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS FOR
ACTIVITY TO FIRE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DECENT CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
GOOD SHEAR. SHOULD SEE SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIDE TO THE EAST HOWEVER WILL STILL
SEE A DRY LINE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DRY LINE COULD BE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MODELS NOT AS ACTIVE UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH
NOTICABLY COOLER TEMPS...MID 80S...HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE AND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS.
STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 22Z-04Z. STORM MOTION WILL CARRY THE STORMS
GENERALLY EAST...PERHAPS NORTHEAST INTO CUSTER COUNTY.
STORM ACTIVITY COULD LAST UNTIL 09Z OR LATER AS A DISTURABANCE
ACROSS ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEBRASKA
TONIGHT.
THE SREF SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS 09Z-12Z SATURDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ARW-NMM SOLNS BUT NOT THE NAM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TODAYS CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE ECM AND HRRR-CR
MODELS. THE MCS WHICH WORKED THROUGH SWRN NEB AND NCNTL KS
THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A RAIN COOLED MESO HIGH WHICH WOULD FORCE
SOME THE VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR WEST TOWARD IMPERIAL AND THIS
PROCESS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AT 07Z. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WRN NEB WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE KS BORDER. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION
FORMING OVER NERN COLO THIS AFTN AND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE KS BORDER. THIS CONVECTION COULD MERGE TO FORM A MCS WHICH
WOULD TRACK EAST THROUGH SRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS ECM AND NAM ALSO SHOW PARTS OF NCNTL NEB DESTABILIZING
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEB.
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE WITH A
BELT OF 40 KT TO 50 KT 300MB WINDS OVERHEAD. SBCAPE IN THE ECM
RISES TO AROUND 3500J/KG. THE NAM SHOWS 4000+ SBCAPE AND NO CAP
ONCE AGAIN...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECM WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG I-80.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION COULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING OR MOVING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE KS BORDER
AND A 30KT 850MB JET OVER WRN KS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ACTIVE AND WARM WEEKEND. RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE
A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND THEN LIFT
TO S CENTRAL CANADA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL SEND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE OHIO/TENNESSE RVR
VALLEYS.
SATURDAY MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A SFC
LOW OVER WESTERN S DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PLAINS. VERY
HUMID AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH/SEMI DRY LINE WITH DEW PTS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. BEHIND THE TROUGH DEW PTS AROUND
60. MORNING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS
DEPARTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LINGER IN THE CWA. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS FOR
ACTIVITY TO FIRE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DECENT CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
GOOD SHEAR. SHOULD SEE SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIDE TO THE EAST HOWEVER WILL STILL
SEE A DRY LINE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DRY LINE COULD BE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MODELS NOT AS ACTIVE UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH
NOTICABLY COOLER TEMPS...MID 80S...HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE AND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS.
STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON
15000 FT AGL WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMING BROKEN
BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING. WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...OPTED FOR A PROB30 GROUP FROM 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY TO
HANDLE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. MUCH WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH/S WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
750 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND WILL FOLLOW. AS EXPECTED
CONVECTION HAS PICKED UP A BIT IN THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND WHILE TRACKING EAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL MAINLY
IMPACT NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. INCREASED POPS HERE TO LIKELY. BY
03Z AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF I-81 IT SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT WITH TIME. LATEST HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNY AND THE FINGER LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH CHANCE POP HERE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW.
MODELS CONT TO SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM MVG THRU LTR
TNGT CONTG TO WEAKEN IN TIME. MODEL QPF AND FCST REFLECTIVETY HAS
BACKED OFF SO HAVE LWRD POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVRNGT.
ESSENTIALLY THE SHRT WV SUPPORT FOR PCPN IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
LVG ONLY SOME LL CONV AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTED BY A BRIEF
LWRG OF HGTS AS THE WV PASSES. ALSO...WITH A LRG HIGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MID LVL WRMG
LIMITS THE AVBL CAPE AND EVEN THE NAM ONLY HAS CAPES OF A FEW
HNDRD OVRNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUBTLE FEATURES AT WORK ON SUN AS THE MODELS SHOW PCPN LINGERING
OVER THE NE CST AND PERHAPS INTO THE XTRM SERN ZONES SUN. SYSTEM
KIND OF STALLS AS THE RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WRN NY BEGINS
TO BLD TRAPPING THE TROF BETWEEN IT AND A RDG OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC. WITH INCRSD HTG A SHWR OR TSTM PSBL OVER THE NEPA ZONES
AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
RDG BLDS IN SOLIDLY FOR MON ADN TUE WITH SHRP HGT RISES. TEMPS MON
AFTN AND ESP TUE COULD RCH INTO THE LWR 90S...ESP IN THE SUSQ VLYS AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM SYR WWRD. WRN CATS AND THE TUG HILL WILL
BE THE COOLEST PLACE TO BE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TYPICAL LATE JULY SUMMER
WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BREAK DOWN AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HEIGHTS/THKNS AND H85 TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THIS
WEEK...PEAKING AT 1 SD ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WHICH REALLY
ONLY MEANS WE SHOULD SEE THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S. PWATS ALSO SURGE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR ONE OF
THOSE HOT/HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT SHOT AT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT DISPLACING THE HEAT. THEN...BROAD CYCLONIC
NWLY FLOW APPEARS TO SET UP AGAIN WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS NEXT FRI-SAT WITH MAINLY DRY WX.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLE TSRA...WILL DRIFT
THROUGH MAINLY KITH IN THE FIRST 1-2 HRS OF FORECAST...WITH OTHER
STATIONS EXPERIENCING MAINLY MID-HIGH LVL VFR CIGS. THEN...WEAK
FORCING CONTINUES DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ACTIVITY AFT 03Z...BUT
LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. VFR WITH OCNL SHRA IS EXPECTED AT
MOST LOCATIONS XCPT KAVP.
ON SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS WITHIN A LOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER IN THE MORNING...THEN MIXES HIGHER AND
SCATTERS OUT TO VFR. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHEST
IN THE KAVP VCNTY AFT 18Z...BUT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM.
WINDS LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT BECOMING W-NW 5-10 KTS ON SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR. COLD FROPA WITH SCT TSRA...MVFR/IFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION OVER
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITHE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A
CU FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY. THE
FORECAST TRENDS IN THE HRRR PLACE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NAM/GFS
ARE DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING BUT DONT THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY.
WILL FOLLOW THE DRYER NAM SOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL BRING THE H500 RIDGE
THROUGH THE STATE. THIS POSITIONS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST US TO BRING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. WILL TREND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
CENTRAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THEN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY
MID-WEEK.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPS WEAK
WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
ON SUNDAY WEAK BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE FRONT RANGE...INCREASES MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE FORECAST CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK (MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT). WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE WORDING JUST YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
ON TUESDAY THE MODELS LIFT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MANITOBA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA...BUT ALSO MOVES A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR TO OUR REGION. LOOKING AT HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 2 PM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER
STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL NOT PUT IN TAF AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT NOON CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH SOME CU IS
FORMING SOUTH CENTRAL. WHILE NEW NAM/GFS KEEP THE REGION DRY THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO FORM SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED T WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING BY MID AFTERNOON
BUT WILL DELAY CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING BASED ON THE SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 9 AM CDT...A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND KEEPING SKIES CLEAR.
LEFTOVER STRATUS FROM THE OVERNIGHT YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IS
BREAKING UP OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASING AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE FOG HAS ENDED AND WILL GO MOST SUNNY WEST AND
DECREASING CLOUDS EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUD CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND THE HIGHER GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST...UNTIL MID
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH TO
STRASBURG. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS
THIS AREA BRANCHING OUT AND JUST GRAZING SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ALSO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 13Z-14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND CENTRAL IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL MINOR/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MONTANA...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAKENING INTO MORE OR LESS A SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
WEAK CAPE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG. SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE GRIDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH
LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN -2C
TO -4C ACROSS THE SOUTH...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPS WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...INCREASES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT NOON CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER
STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL NOT PUT IN TAF AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
953 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 9 AM CDT...A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND KEEPING SKIES CLEAR.
LEFTOVER STRATUS FROM THE OVERNIGHT YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IS
BREAKING UP OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASING AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE FOG HAS ENDED AND WILL GO MOST SUNNY WEST AND
DECREASING CLOUDS EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUD CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND THE HIGHER GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST...UNTIL MID
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH TO
STRASBURG. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS
THIS AREA BRANCHING OUT AND JUST GRAZING SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ALSO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 13Z-14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND CENTRAL IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL MINOR/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MONTANA...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAKENING INTO MORE OR LESS A SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
WEAK CAPE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG. SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE GRIDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH
LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN -2C
TO -4C ACROSS THE SOUTH...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPS WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...INCREASES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 9 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WAS CLEARING SKIES OVER WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS WERE BREAKING UP
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUD CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND THE HIGHER GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST...UNTIL MID
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH TO
STRASBURG. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS
THIS AREA BRANCHING OUT AND JUST GRAZING SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ALSO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 13Z-14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND CENTRAL IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL MINOR/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MONTANA...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAKENING INTO MORE OR LESS A SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
WEAK CAPE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG. SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE GRIDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH
LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN -2C
TO -4C ACROSS THE SOUTH...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPS WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...INCREASES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND KDIK AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 17Z TODAY. VFR IS
FORECAST THEREAFTER. AN ISOLATED -TSRA IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 20Z...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH TO
STRASBURG. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS
THIS AREA BRANCHING OUT AND JUST GRAZING SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ALSO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 13Z-14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND CENTRAL IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL MINOR/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MONTANA...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAKENING INTO MORE OR LESS A SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
WEAK CAPE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG. SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE GRIDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH
LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN -2C
TO -4C ACROSS THE SOUTH...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPS WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...INCREASES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AT KBIS/KJMS/KDIK AND KJMS
THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE BACKEDGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOW
EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ATTENTION TURNS TO PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS HIGHEST THREAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
CANCELLED BURLEIGH...MORTON...GRANT...SIOUX AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
WITH THIS UPDATE. OVERALL...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 240 UTC IS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW. THIS IS PLACING A LIMIT ON THE UTILIZATION OF THE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT SAID...THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND/OR IF ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SUFFICIENTLY DECOUPLES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE MAJORITY OF COUNTIES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 BEHIND THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 130 UTC. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...AND THE 23-00 UTC HRRR...A CONTINUED CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION INTO A LINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE JAMES AND INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4500
J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LOW
LEVEL JET ONSET. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES...TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT SHOULD A LINE
FORM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 AT THIS TIME.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2345 UTC BLENDED TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
AND WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 739 FOR STORM THREAT
AND EVOLUTION DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST.
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA NOW WITH WINDS WEST OF THE FROPA ACROSS THE FAR WEST
OUT OF THE NORTH OR WEST. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE
VERY MOIST EAST OF THE FRONT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH MID 80S AND LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. CLOUD COVER
NORTHWEST WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH DAKOTA
ENABLING INSTABILITY UPWARDS TO 4-5K J/KG.
ROBUST CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN 19-21Z WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...THEN DEVELOP/MOVE EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. AS MODELS HAVE
PORTRAYED THE LAST FEW DAYS...BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY
DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE...BUT CATCHES UP LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
STILL...ENOUGH CAPE TO OVERCOME LACK OF SHEAR ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/WV. AS THE SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION INDICATED...DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO MCS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES TO THE
EAST RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS WHERE
AS HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT FIRST. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG TO EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW TOMORROW SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT FOR FRIDAY WILL BE LOW. STILL WARM BUT MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LIFTED
NORTHEAST...WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
MVFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL SPREAD SOUTH...WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VSBYS AT KBIS/KJMS/KDIK AND KJMS THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.AVIATION...
WILL CONT WITH VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTIONIN THE TAFS AS EXPECT STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE STATE.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS S/SWRN KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
S/SE... INCHING EVER CLOSER TO THE OK/KS BORDER. RADAR TRENDS AND
IR SAT REVEAL A SMALL COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW REGION OF
H850 CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AN OVERALL SLOW EVOLUTION... FROM SPARSE OBS IN KS... IT
APPEARS CURRENT CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON A MINOR COLD POOL AND
POSSIBLY TAPPING INTO THE MODEST DEVELOPING LLJ. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT... ALBEIT BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS AND QPF DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL FLAVORS OF THE HIRES WRF... EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO REACH PORTIONS OF NRN OK. IN RESPONSE... INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
NRN OK EARLY SUN MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALL HAIL... POSSIBLY NICKEL SIZED. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES HOWEVER REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.
EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 98 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 74 100 73 101 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 98 76 99 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 75 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS S/SWRN KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD
S/SE... INCHING EVER CLOSER TO THE OK/KS BORDER. RADAR TRENDS AND
IR SAT REVEAL A SMALL COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW REGION OF
H850 CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AN OVERALL SLOW EVOLUTION... FROM SPARSE OBS IN KS... IT
APPEARS CURRENT CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON A MINOR COLD POOL AND
POSSIBLY TAPPING INTO THE MODEST DEVELOPING LLJ. HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT... ALBEIT BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS AND QPF DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL FLAVORS OF THE HIRES WRF... EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO REACH PORTIONS OF NRN OK. IN RESPONSE... INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
NRN OK EARLY SUN MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALL HAIL... POSSIBLY NICKEL SIZED. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME. CHANCES HOWEVER REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT IS ON.
EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A GAGE TO WOODWARD TO MEDFORD
LINE. IF STORMS OCCUR...WHICH IS A BIG IF...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND SUNNY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STORM AND RAIN
FORMATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WELL AS LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 98 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 74 100 73 101 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 98 76 99 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 75 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTA
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A TROF/DRY
LINE EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGED FROM THE MID 80S OVER THE
BLACK HILLS TO THE UPPER 90S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE DRY LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE DRY LINE SHIFTS
EAST...ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE WESTERN TROF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES THOUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR IS WEAK...VALUES OF
15KTS OR LESS AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY WITH
RESPECT TO POPS TONIGHT WITH RAP SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS...HRRR
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SDSMT WRF INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE HILLS. DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
ON FRIDAY...BROAD RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTERLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE
DAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
SUBTLE WAVES BRINGING DAILY ISOLATED STORMS TO DIFFERING PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PAC
COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECM SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS WILL STILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LCL MVFR VSBY
AND GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
UPDATE...
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE TO ABERDEEN
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE STALLED FRONT HAS
SLIPPED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THAT LINE. WILL
UPDATE TO CUT BACK OR REMOVE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO RAISE POPS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND MUCH OF NORTH MS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE QPF GRID FOR THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA.
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN BACK BUILDING
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR DIMINISH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY...INCREASING AND
EXPANDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS
LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS.
FOR TODAY...THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL
AR...POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ALSO...ANY ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS
THE MS RIVER DELTA...INCLUDING MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO...EXCESSIVE
HEAT WILL OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 106 AND 109 DEGREES. THUS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND KEPT IT GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.
AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY HOT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE 110 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. A POP UP SHRA OR
TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO ADD VCTS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL...KJBR AND KTUP. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1101 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE TO ABERDEEN
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE STALLED FRONT HAS
SLIPPED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THAT LINE. WILL
UPDATE TO CUT BACK OR REMOVE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO RAISE POPS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND MUCH OF NORTH MS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE QPF GRID FOR THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA.
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN BACK BUILDING
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR DIMINISH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY...INCREASING AND
EXPANDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS
LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS.
FOR TODAY...THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL
AR...POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ALSO...ANY ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS
THE MS RIVER DELTA...INCLUDING MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO...EXCESSIVE
HEAT WILL OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 106 AND 109 DEGREES. THUS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND KEPT IT GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.
AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY HOT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE 110 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A COUPLE OF SITES...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD ONLY
LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AT
JONESBORO...MEMPHIS AND TUPELO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WHICH
LOCATIONS AND TIMING. TLSJR
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1205 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/
UPDATE...
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT MIDEVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
AR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED MID AND UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST AR AND
SOUTHEAST MO...WHICH WAS FEEDING SCATTERED STORMS DROPPING SOUTH.
THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AT
930 PM.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES WARRANT CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A
WYNNE ARKANSAS TO A CORINTH MISSISSIPPI LINE. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
REMAIN A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 3-4Z. THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
AFTER 4Z...THE HRRR SHOWS CONDITIONS MAY BE TRANQUIL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. WILL LEAVE SMALL
POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MS-TN BORDER JUST IN CASE
THERE IS A LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY STILL IN PLACE...HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL BECOME NECESSARY BY THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS. WILL LEAVE THE FINAL HEAT ADVISORY CALL TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. ONCE THE HEAT ADVISORIES BEGIN THEY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURING ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOPING AFTER 24/08Z DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FOG IS MOST LIKELY NEAR MEM...MKL...AND TUP AS WINDS WILL GO
NEARLY CALM BY EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR VISBYS..WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR NEAR MKL.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH DURING DAY...WITH MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR JBR...MEM...AND TUP. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY BEHIND BOUNDARY AFTER 24/18Z RANGING 6 TO 8 KTS.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
907 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
STALL...AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOTS OF CAPPING ALOFT
VIA DRY AIR OFF SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER STILL COULD POP ANOTHER LOW
TOPPED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER OLD OUTFLOW AND
LINGERING THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE LOSS OF
HEATING. LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA
OVERNIGHT SO MAY LEAVE IN A MENTION A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE WEST.
OTRW EXPECT SOME LINGERING STRATO-CU OVERNIGHT TO GRADUALLY FADE
BEFORE AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP ESPCLY SW SECTIONS WHERE
EARLIER HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. ALSO BEEFED UP FOG IN SOME OF
THE VALLEYS AS EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
BUMPED UP LOWS A LITTLE IN SPOTS UNDER HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH
SHOULD KEEP ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 60S OVERALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH LOSE OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...LEADING TO PATCHY FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. A SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...ANY STRONG CONVECTION ON THE OUTER RINGS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...POSSIBLY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE...SUNDAY`S AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS.
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WITH A WARM START
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ZEROING IN ON POSSIBLE DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE
BEGINNING OF MONDAY. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE PRECIP
FIELDS...BUT THINK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL BE ONLY
CHANCE RANGE AT BEST.
BY MONDAY WHILE WE MAY SEE MORE CLOUD COVER THE LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS LEADING TO MORE CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN HITTING THE MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL BROADBRUSH THREAT CWA
WIDE...THOUGH THINK THE CHANCE IS GOING TO BE 40/50 AROUND AND
EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER
THREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK NORTHEAST. THERE COULD SOME ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA/NW NC MAYBE HAVING
30ISH CHANCE.
TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING...ESPECIALLY LOWS AS HEIGHTS BUILD. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 70 EAST. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT THE
SAME.
HIGHS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S
SOUTHEAST...BUT THE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT SATURDAY...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE STICKS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY THURSDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AREA SINKS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE
TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS WERE KEEPING THREAT OF
SFC WAVES COMING UP THE FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST COAST FRI-SAT THOUGH
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE REGARDING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
CONSENSUS KEEPING MORE AN INLAND LOW WITH FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF STORMS IN THE THU
NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH FRONT SLOWING UP OVER THE COAST BY
SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SATURDAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY.
TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY DROP A
LITTLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY IF THE
FRONT MOVES FAR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR AS OF 25/2345Z...DEVELOPING MAINLY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDFLOW IN A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE ISOLATED...THESE SHOWERS ARE
ALSO SLOW MOVING...AND MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVY RAIN FOR UP TO AN HOUR. EXPECT THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO
LINGER AS LATE A 26/04Z.
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS WINDS SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY. AS SUCH...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY FOR DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND IN SPOTS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE THAT DID RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. MAY SEE LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE LOW CEILINGS IN ANY TAFS.
ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 26/13Z WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. CU FIELD WILL REDEVELOP AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING...
WITH BASES RANGING FROM 4KFT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO 6KFT OVER THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON...AGAIN INITIATING ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. GREATER INSTABILITY AS WELL WITH STRONGER HEATING
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO
LIKELY TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DRIFT OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING
EARLY EVENING...CARRIED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY WITH
THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. OUTSIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MAINLY
VALLEY FOG...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
LATE IN THE COMING WORKWEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
POTENTIAL DEEP FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...NF/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
135 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...STALL...AND BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE FADED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY A WEAK LEFTOVER CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NW
NC FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS INTO SW VA KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
THERE. OTRW SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH TO
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DARTS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT PER VAPOR LOOP SPILLING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SHOWER CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE FOG AND POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITHIN THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS
ALREADY SEEN OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS. EXPECT AREAS ACROSS NW NC TO
SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WHILE CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO FILL IN
ELSW UNTIL LATE SO DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE LOW DECK SOMEWHAT.
WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS SOUTH/SW A FEW MORE HOURS GIVEN
REMAINING WEAK INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH THINK THE HRRR IDEA OF MORE
SHOWERS SW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS OVERDONE GIVEN DRYING
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. OTRW KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME
50S LIKELY NW PER DRIER DEWPOINTS/CLEARING WHILE CLOSER TO 70 SE
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN KY/TN. A GENEROUS GROUPING OF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS IS TO OUR SOUTH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY IN KY/TN WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA AROUND 400 PM. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...IT WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LESS THE
FARTHER EAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER NORTH...YOU ARE WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA.
BY MIDNIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
WITHOUT RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST.
ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND HELP ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MAY
YIELD SOME AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF US THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. MORE OF A WEAK SE FLOW TO TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY...TO ALLOW
FOR MORE SHOWER OR TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE WESTERLY. NOT A HIGH THREAT OF ANY PRECIP...SO KEPT
POPS VERY LOW.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING AGAIN
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY TO MID TO UPPER 80S PIEDMONT...THEN SUNDAY LOW-MID 80S
MTNS...TO UPPER 80S/90 PIEDMONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME 50S DEEPER
VALLEYS SAT MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA/NRN PLAINS THAT ALLOWS FOR SOME RETROGRADING OF
THIS HIGH BY THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
ARRIVE GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS PERIOD DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NNW FLOW ALOFT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHTS MAX OUT WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS.
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO 60S MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST. HIGHS FROM LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST...WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF LATE JULY NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL FILL IN BEFORE 12Z/8AM AT KROA/KDAN AND KLYH. MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO FORMATION AND HEIGHT OF CLOUDS AT KLWB AND KBLF.
IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT FORM AT KLWB...GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP.
THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY AND YIELD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCTD-BKN 4-6K FT CU TO THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOKS LESS
LIKELY TODAY SO LEAVING OUT OF THE TAFS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL COVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT
AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG.SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WOULD EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
535 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH
COLD FROPA.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IA. RAP PUSHES CORRIDOR OF 0-1KM MUCAPE IN THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE (NE-SE RESPECTIVELY) ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY 7PM. HOWEVER...RAP/NAM SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 700-
800MB CAP IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE ONLY
MODEL SHOWING CONVECTIVE REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WITH THE FROPA IS THE
NAM...BUT THIS IS WITH MUCH HIGHER PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE CAP IN PLACE. IF
THE CAP DOES WEAKEN SOME...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
FIRE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS A
RESULT OF THE CONDITIONAL NATURE TO THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING POP
CATEGORY IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
EAST WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST. LOOK FOR STORM THREAT TO SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE TAKES
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HEAT RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WILL GO WITH 20-40 PPS
FOR NOW AND MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO/THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SUB-SEVERE AT
THIS TIME WITH JUST LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE
MAIN IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
MONDAY HOLDS A LOWER-END CHANCE FOR SOME AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE HEAT
RIDGE IN PLACE AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD TOP
90S DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 7S0 TO THE LOWER 80S.
SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCE RETURN ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED...WITH INCREASING CAPE AND FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THAT COULD HELP FUEL/ORGANIZE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AT THE TAF
SITES...AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
CONVERGENT. MESO MODELS ARE NOT FAVORING SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE FRONT...COMING THROUGH WITH SOME VFR-MVFR
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. KLSE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT...AND THAT
LOOKS MEAGER AT THE MOMENT. WILL KEEP TAFS RAIN FREE FOR THE
MOMENT...AND ADD MENTION IF RADAR TRENDS NECESSITATE IT.
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS KRST NEAR 03Z AND KLSE NEAR 05Z. LOOK
FOR WIND TO GO WEST THEN NORTH. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH
COLD FROPA.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IA. RAP PUSHES CORRIDOR OF 0-1KM MUCAPE IN THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE (NE-SE RESPECTIVELY) ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY 7PM. HOWEVER...RAP/NAM SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 700-
800MB CAP IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE ONLY
MODEL SHOWING CONVECTIVE REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WITH THE FROPA IS THE
NAM...BUT THIS IS WITH MUCH HIGHER PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE CAP IN PLACE. IF
THE CAP DOES WEAKEN SOME...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
FIRE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS A
RESULT OF THE CONDITIONAL NATURE TO THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING POP
CATEGORY IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
EAST WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST. LOOK FOR STORM THREAT TO SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE TAKES
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HEAT RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WILL GO WITH 20-40 PPS
FOR NOW AND MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO/THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SUB-SEVERE AT
THIS TIME WITH JUST LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE
MAIN IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
MONDAY HOLDS A LOWER-END CHANCE FOR SOME AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE HEAT
RIDGE IN PLACE AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD TOP
90S DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 7S0 TO THE LOWER 80S.
SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCE RETURN ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED OR SOME BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
COLD FRONT COMES IN. BOTH THE 24.12Z NAM AND 24.15Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AND THAT THIS CAP WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE CAP TO BE DISPLACED LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. BASED ON THIS...PLAN TO SHOW SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THAT COULD GO TO A VFR CEILING FOR A
WHILE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WINDS
DROPPING UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...MOVING DUE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS IS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND THINK CONVECTION WILL OUTRUN THIS MOST UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT-WAVE ALOFT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE...SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG NOSE OF 850 HPA JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CLOSER TO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE THROUGH MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AND 9 AM. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID
80S AND WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...TODAY WILL FEEL MUCH MORE HUMID THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH
HEAT/HUMIDITY...0-3 KM MUCAPE QUICKLY BUILDS TO BETWEEN 1000 TO
3000 J/KG...BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL CAP SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP STORMS
IN CHECK. THAT IS UNTIL A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT IS UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS A WEST-EAST ORIENTED JET
STREAK THAT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI...RESULTING IN 0 T0
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS. LATEST SUITE OF MESO MODELS
ONLY SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON
COVERAGE...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DROP TO ZERO BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
NOT MUCH TIME SPENT ON THE LONG TERM GIVEN MORE IMMEDIATE CONVECTIVE
CONCERNS...BUT WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES MOVE THROUGH BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. MORE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE WARM WITH DAILY HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 80S WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE RATHER
HIGH...RESULTING IN HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE LOWER IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S COLD FRONT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK GIVEN DOMINANT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED OR SOME BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
COLD FRONT COMES IN. BOTH THE 24.12Z NAM AND 24.15Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AND THAT THIS CAP WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE CAP TO BE DISPLACED LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. BASED ON THIS...PLAN TO SHOW SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THAT COULD GO TO A VFR CEILING FOR A
WHILE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WINDS
DROPPING UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR DYING
MCS ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON IT...SO MODELED SHORT TERM FORECAST AFTER
IT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEST THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING AS AT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD MID DRY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND
OF CONVECTION TRIES TO DEVELOP.
MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT IF EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK FROM
CONVECTION HANGS ON WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
A DYING MCS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...BUT THUNDER
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
COMPLEX WIPES OUT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...OTHER THAN SOME
BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN MODERATE RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THEN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A 250 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEST TO
EAST UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 105 KNOTS ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TODAY...THEN INCREASING LATE TONIGHT.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING
TO MODERATE UPWARD MOTION TONIGHT.
A 40 KNOT 700 MB JET EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA...REACHING AREAS JUST NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE JET DECREASES TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AT
AROUND 30 KNOTS.
700/850 AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES...BUT THE HIGH CAPE AXIS
IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ONLY AROUND 600 JOULES/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. BY THE TIME THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPES ARE AROUND 1200
JOULES/KG...AND AROUND 700 JOULES/KG FAR SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A RATHER STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB THAT ONLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPSTREAM MINNESOTA
CONVECTION. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ONES TAKE A WEAKENING AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TODAY...WHILE THE OTHER WEAKEN THE THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLETELY BEFORE REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE.
SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
KEPT LOW POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE MORNING
SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE TOO MOIST AND TOO UNSTABLE...SO
FOLLOWED THE MORE REASONABLE GFS SOUNDINGS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INLAND SATURDAY...PER BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE. LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A BIT COOLER.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS AN AXIS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM APPEARS OVERDONE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUING SLOWLY INCREASING
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER
MILD DAY IS EXPECTED INLAND...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR
THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEEP 500 MB LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THESE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF AND SOME FEATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONTINUED CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD...HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...PER CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODEL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOKING AT SIMILAR VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY...AND PATCHY GROUND FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE IN LOW
LYING AREAS ELSEWHERE.
MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPSTREAM MINNESOTA
CONVECTION. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ONES TAKE A WEAKENING AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TODAY...WHILE THE OTHER WEAKEN THE THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLETELY BEFORE REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE.
EXPECT SHALLOW CUMULUS BELOW THE CAP AT AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD
FT...WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW INCREASES...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
LAKE BREEZE SETTING IN. WINDS/WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
239 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT PRETTY
MUCH RIGHT OVER THE CHEYENNE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH NOT MAKING ANY PROGRESS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAINS OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS MOISTURE...BUT FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...RADAR REMAINS PPINE. HAVE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT SEPARATE VERY DRY AIR WEST AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE.
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH FROM THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
TODAY/THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR HOURLY RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE NEAR CHEYENNE THAT DRIFT OUT INTO
THE PANHANDLE. HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS ALL MORNING...BUT SO
FAR...NOTHING HAS HAPPENED. SO CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH THAT
THIS SOLUTION WILL HAPPEN. CONTINUED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKING AT A PRETTY WARM DAY SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO +18C ACROSS THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER. LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE YEAR. DID GO HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING 700MB WINDS OUT
WEST. BY 00Z MONDAY GFS SHOWING 700MB WINDS OUT WEST AT 20-25KTS.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEY INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS AND THEN BY
MONDAY MORNING...30 TO 35KTS. DID GO HIGHER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE WOULD STAY WELL MIXED WITH POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ANOTHER QUITE WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKYS. THIS WILL
BRING A RATHER WINDY DAY TO THE WIND-FAVORED AREAS OF SE WYOMING
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAKING FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS
THE UPPER TROF EDGES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LEAVING DRY AND MILDER
WEATHER IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR
A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. AFTER THAT THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
KEEPING A MAINLY DRY PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IN
TEMPS. MONSOONAL FLOW APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN CUT OFF MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK BUT SOME INDICATION IT WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE KRWL AND KLAR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
OUT WEST. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP WINDS EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS
WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT
MONDAY. POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING WILL START HUMIDITIES OFF LOW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE WINDS
INCREASE...WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS 9AM MONDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM REMAINED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH IN SONORA
SUNDAY WILL HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE STREAM BACK INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 1.1 INCH SOUTH OF
I-70. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT AROUND 20 MPH SO ONLY
LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FAVORING THE SW SAN JUANS.
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH RAISING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY FORM NORTH OF I-70.
THESE STORMS IN AN INVERTED V ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MORE GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING THAN RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE NE PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. SW GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS WILL
ERODE MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A FEW
STORMS CONTINUING PAST MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY
ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL.
MONDAY THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED 90KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW UTAH THEN
LIFTS INTO WYOMING. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NE
UT AND NW CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW 700-600MB GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SW FLOW IS ALSO QUITE
DRY SO ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EASTERN MOST
MOUNTAINS.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
WINDS HAVE LESSENED ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO BELOW THE 25 MPH
THRESHOLD WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED SO HAVE
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES DEVELOPED LATER TODAY AROUND 4 PM OVER THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
ATYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON IN A COUPLE OF WAYS...NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
AS OF 19Z. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT A STORM OR TWO WILL POP OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROMPTLY MOVE EAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DOMINATED THIS JULY...SO THE LACK OF
STORMS SEEMS OUT OF PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS TODAY BUT
HARDLY A SCORCHER. OUTSIDE OF MONUMENT VALLEY...NO TEMP SENSOR
HAVE REACHED 90F BY 1 PM. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET SUMMER DAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500 MB VORTICITY STREAMS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
BUT THE MOISTURE SHIELD REACHING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN COLORADO FROM THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY
AND BREEZY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND A 60 KT JET
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A BURLY PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND BRUSH ALONG THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE ENHANCED WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN UT/CO BOUNDARIES THANKS TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A 60 KT JET ALOFT. ASSUMING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN DRY
OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
FOR DAYS...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DO LOOK PROBABLE IN NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL HUG THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS SO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE NAM IS BRINGING A SOLID ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE WY/UT/CO
BORDER ON TUESDAY LINED UP WITH THE ULJ WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE
KEEPING THIS ENERGY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS ENERGY STAYS IN
WYOMING BUT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY ALONG THE WY/UT/CO BORDER.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB ISOBARS SHOW CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THAT LEVEL OVER WESTERN KS...WESTERN OK...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX
WHICH WOULD STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE GULF.
SIGNAL LOOKS SLIGHTLY MONSOONAL AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA PROBABILITY IS QUITE
LOW ATTM BUT PASSING STORMS MY IMPACT ILS BREAK POINTS AT
KEGE...KASE AND KRIL TEMPORARILY AFTER 26/20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR COLORADO ZONE 200 FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY...
GUSTY WINDS...AND HAINES INDEX OF 6. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THAT WOULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER 8 PM.
ALSO THE WATCH FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 200 201 202 AND 203
REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW RH FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO. WILL LET THE SUNDAY DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS
PERIOD IN DETAIL AND MAKE THE WARNING DECISION.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
WINDS HAVE LESSENED ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO BELOW THE 25 MPH
THRESHOLD WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED SO HAVE
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES DEVELOPED LATER TODAY AROUND 4 PM OVER THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
ATYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON IN A COUPLE OF WAYS...NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
AS OF 19Z. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT A STORM OR TWO WILL POP OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROMPTLY MOVE EAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DOMINATED THIS JULY...SO THE LACK OF
STORMS SEEMS OUT OF PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS TODAY BUT
HARDLY A SCORCHER. OUTSIDE OF MONUMENT VALLEY...NO TEMP SENSOR
HAVE REACHED 90F BY 1 PM. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET SUMMER DAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500 MB VORTICITY STREAMS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
BUT THE MOISTURE SHIELD REACHING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN COLORADO FROM THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY
AND BREEZY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND A 60 KT JET
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A BURLY PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND BRUSH ALONG THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE ENHANCED WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN UT/CO BOUNDARIES THANKS TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A 60 KT JET ALOFT. ASSUMING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN DRY
OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
FOR DAYS...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DO LOOK PROBABLE IN NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL HUG THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS SO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE NAM IS BRINGING A SOLID ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE WY/UT/CO
BORDER ON TUESDAY LINED UP WITH THE ULJ WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE
KEEPING THIS ENERGY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS ENERGY STAYS IN
WYOMING BUT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY ALONG THE WY/UT/CO BORDER.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB ISOBARS SHOW CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THAT LEVEL OVER WESTERN KS...WESTERN OK...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX
WHICH WOULD STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE GULF.
SIGNAL LOOKS SLIGHTLY MONSOONAL AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA PROBABILITY IS QUITE
LOW ATTM BUT PASSING STORMS MY IMPACT ILS BREAK POINTS AT
KEGE...KASE AND KRIL TEMPORARILY AFTER 26/20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR FIRE ZONE 200 REMAINS IN
EFFECT DUE TO 60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IN PLACE AND DRY AIR
REMAINING OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO WHILE MAINLY STRATIFORM
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM WELL SOUTH OF MOFFAT COUNTY.
ALSO THE WATCH FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 200 201 202 AND 203
REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCIES ON
FORECAST WINDS AND LOW RH FOR MONDAY AS A TROUGH BRUSHES BY THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER. ON MONDAY CERTAIN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA MAY
POTENTIALLY BE BATTLING WITH TOO MUCH MOISTURE FROM SUNDAYS
SHOWERS BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY.
SINCE ITS JUST A WATCH DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH
SUCH A DEFINED FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.
SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.
TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.
WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.
IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.
FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.
WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS.
EXPECTED A BREAK IN THE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS
AT TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.
MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
149 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY...THEN PASSES JUST EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL NY...AND AS A
WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN
ZONES AND INTO CT LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST HRRR MODEL
HAS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE
LOCAL CWA...BUT WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. THESE SHORTWAVES COUPLED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE...SO DO NOT
EXPECT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF BLEND
FOR POPS...THINKING THE GFS MIGHT BE A TAD OVERDONE WITH ITS
PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS DEW
POINTS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES IN AND AROUND NYC. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LINGERING TROUGH BOTH ALOFT AND
AT THE SFC WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING TUE
THROUGH WED. UPSTREAM TROUGH THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT SETTLES NEARBY OR JUST EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP
NEARBY...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WHEREAS THE GFS TRACKS THIS WEAKENING FRONT TO THE EAST FRI
AND SAT. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES NOTED...FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER LOW.
IN GENERAL...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY
DUE TO AVBL CAPE...AND PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK. ANY STORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING.
THEN DRY AND INCREASING HOT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUE THROUGH WED.
SOME INSTABILITY NOTED...BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR CLASHES WITH THE STEAMY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
PROB FOR CONVECTION WANES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
WEAKENING FRONT. CONFIDENCE LOW AS NOTED ABOVE.
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WED AND THU SHOULD BE
THE HOTTEST DAYS. HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL
THOSE TWO DAYS. THIS SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH THU. MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE WED AND
THU.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT...READINGS FALL BACK
SLIGHTLY...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TODAY AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A SFC WARM FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY N&W OF NYC
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
AT KSWF. WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUP FOR KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF. MVFR
AND POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS IN ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. WEAKENING
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS REMAINING
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
SW WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP THIS MORNING. STRONG AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES WILL RESULT IN S WINDS 15-20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
LOW PROB OF SE SEABREEZE MOVING INTO KEWR/KTEB...LIKELY REMAINING
JUST EAST OF TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS OUTLYING
TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. 5-6SM HAZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS
AND BRING SEAS UP TO 4 FT.
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
AS WEAK FRONT GIVES WAY TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
OCEAN SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
BUT POSSIBLE SWELL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BUILDING 5 FOOT SEAS WED NIGHT AND THU PER WAVE WATCH.
HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERDO SEAS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD OBSERVE TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE MON THROUGH THU PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SLOW MOVING STORMS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW
INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.
SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.
TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.
WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.
IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.
FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.
WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.
MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...
A RATHER COMPLEX WX PATTERN TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY
DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE TRAPPED BTWN A DEEP LYR
ANTICYCLONE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...AND THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER
ANTILLES. TROF AXIS MARKED BY SWRLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND NERLY FLOW NORTH OF IT. EVNG SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLEAR FROPA AT
KJAX WITH NE WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR AND SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
ABV H70...KTBW/KXMR SHOW THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THEM WITH LIGHT
W/SW FLOW THRU H100-H70 AND A NEARLY SATURATED H100-H50 LYR.
SUFFICIENT LOW LCL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA WITH PWAT
VALUES BTWN 2.1"-2.2". RAP ANALYSIS BACKS THIS UP WITH H100-H70 MEAN
RH AOA 90PCT OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA AND H85-H50 MEAN
RH BTWN 70-85PCT OVER CENTRAL FL...DECREASING TO AOB 40PCT N OF THE
BIG BEND.
WEAK PGRAD ALONG AND N OF THE FRNTL BNDRY MARKED BY LIGHT W/SW FLOW
THRU THE H100-H70 LYR ON THE USAF 915 HZ PROFILER WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PGRAD ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE
FORMATION. EVEN SO...LIMITED STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE RULE ONCE
AGAIN AS WARM MID LVL TEMPS LIMIT DEEP LYR THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY: H70 TEMPS BTWN 8-9C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -5C ARE YIELDING
LAPSE RATES BTWN 5.0-5.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE
H85-H70 WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMP
TRIGGERS ARE REACHED (M80S-L90S)...WHICH WILL LEAVE LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS TO BUILD UP SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO BECOME
EXPLOSIVE.
DESPITE THE HI MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF...HRRR AND
LCL WRF MODELS ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC THAN THE 26/00Z MAV POPS. TROF
AXIS OVERHEAD HAS WEAKENED THE MID LVL STEERING WINDS...RESULTING IN
A NOTEWORTHY VORT MIN OVER E CENTRAL FL. UPR LVLS ARE LARGELY
NEUTRAL AS WELL WITH NO SIG JET STREAKS IN THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...
WHILE WEAK...GFS DOES INDICATE AN ERLY H85-H50 STEERING COMPONENT
THAT WOULD TEND TO FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN PENINSULA WILL
GO WITH 60/70 POPS INTERIOR AND 50 POPS ALNG THE COAST...BCMG 30-
40PCT CHC OVERNIGHT. THREAT FOR LCL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS RECENT
RAINFALL HAS PUSHED ERC VALUES BLO 20 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BULK OF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFT PEAK HEATING HRS...BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
U80S/L90S...ESP COASTAL REGIONS FROM THE CAPE NWD DUE TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M70S AREAWIDE SUGGEST ABV AVG MIN TEMPS
IN THE M/U70.
MON-WED...
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GRADUALLY ELONGATES AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH
A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A FEW WEAK
SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES...ANYWHERE FROM
THE EASTERN GULF TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BUT THESE FEATURES ARE ALL
FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND WEAK. GENERALLY TREND WILL BE FOR THE BOUNDARY
TO MEANDER AROUND TAMPA/ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD
DRIFT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY..GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE...WILL BE LOWER IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS. DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS BETTER RAIN CHANCES FROM
OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTHWARDS. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK CURRENTLY
ON MONDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS 60-70% AND THEN LOWER COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT 40-60% AS SOME OVERALL DRYING WORKS INTO
THE AREA AND THE TROUGH FURTHER WASHES OUT.
THU-SAT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH THE FEATURE OVERALL
WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...TAKING WITH
IT THE DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG IT. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
OFFSET BY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL BRING ANY
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS. POPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT 40-50%.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 27/12Z
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE
SWRLY WINDS SOUTH KISM-KTIX...NERLY WINDS NORTH OF IT. CHC MVFR
SHRAS E OF KVRB-KOBE THRU 26/12Z...ALL SITES BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z.
BTWN 26/16Z-26/24Z...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS INTERIOR SITES
WITH A SLGT CHC +TSRAS WITH SFC WND G35KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD
IFR TSRAS COASTAL SITES. AFT 27/00Z-27/04Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC
IFR TSRAS ALL SITES. AFT 27/04Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET TO THE STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW S OF THE INLET WILL KEEP SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. CHOPPY WIND WAVES THRU MIDDAY DUE
TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS WITH DOMINANT PDS BTWN 4-5SECS. PDS WILL
LENGTHEN TO 6-8SEC FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD AFT SUNSET AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW DAMPENS OUT THE WIND CHOP. SCT/NMRS OFFSHORE MOVING SHRAS/TSRAS
WITH STRONG SFC WND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARD TODAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO LATE WEEK. PREVAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER MOST OF THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDS
EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY WILL LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD EVEN THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS BY
THURSDAY. CHOPPY SEAS 2-3FT...OCCASIONALLY UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 76 89 74 / 50 30 60 40
MCO 89 75 91 75 / 70 40 70 40
MLB 86 75 91 76 / 50 30 60 40
VRB 88 75 92 75 / 50 30 60 40
LEE 89 76 90 77 / 60 40 70 40
SFB 89 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40
ORL 89 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40
FPR 88 77 92 75 / 50 30 60 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND NORTH FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF ANY CONVECTION GENERALLY
NORTH OF I75. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TODAY WILL STILL SEE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE SFC LOW IS STILL FAIRLY
BROAD, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
CONTRACT AND CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
BACK THE EAST FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ACCORDING TO
THE MOST CURRENT MODELS. THIS WILL LOWER CHANCES OF CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A 500MB LOW PARKED OVER
IT TODAY. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, MOST OF THE INDICES
ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, EXCEPT FOR THE PWATS, WHICH WERE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. THE SFC BASED CAPE WAS AROUND 800J, THE LAPSE RATES
WERE LESS THAN 6C/KM AT THE VARIOUS LEVELS. NCAPE WAS ONLY .07.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS OVER 15K FT. THE 500MB TEMP WAS BETWEEN -6
AND -5C. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WHICH
HAS BEEN JUST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER THE GULF COAST,
SOUTH OF NAPLES.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY, THE 500MB TEMP
STAYS RIGHT AROUND -5.5C. THE FREEZING LEVEL STAYS BETWEEN 15K AND
16K FT. THE LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE 6C/KM OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS, IMMOKALEE LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CAPE, AND THAT IS ONLY AROUND 1100J, FAIRLY LOW FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT, THE PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5
INCHES. NCAPE IS .1 OR LESS. THE MBE VELOCITY IS SHOWING BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS. TODAY REALLY LOOKS MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SHOWER DAY,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. BUT, THE SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY, GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. THEY ALSO INDICATE THERE
COULD BE SOME BACK BUILDING OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS, MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR. BUT ALONG THE COAST, THEY MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FLOODING IN THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKING AT MODEL
PROBABILITIES, THERE IS LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY
FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
LAST NIGHT, WHICH SHOWED NEARLY A 70 PERCENT CHANCE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR FOR THE TYPE OF PATTERN FOR TODAY, IT
DOES SHOW THE GULF COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT ALSO SHOWS THE ATLANTIC
COAST MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. IT SHOWS THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS IN WAVES TODAY. AGAIN, THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BEGIN SOMETIME AROUND 2 TO 3PM, AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS DIURNAL HEATING SETS UP AFT 14Z, TSRA IS AGAIN
EXPECTED NEAR ALL TERMINALS AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A CONTINUATION OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
KOB
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GULF MAY SEE SOME WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO
5 FT OFFSHORE. THE ATLANTIC WILL SEE CALMER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THERE WILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT CHANCES WILL BE LOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEY MAY BE ELEVATED ALONG THE GULF COAST
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 92 77 / 70 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 91 79 / 60 20 40 10
MIAMI 88 77 92 79 / 60 20 40 10
NAPLES 85 79 88 79 / 80 60 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO HAVE COME TO AN END SO A DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MID MORNING
SUNDAY.
FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THREAT FOR FOG...DENSE AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. 00Z NAM AND RUC BRINGING IN
RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER RH FROM BOTH MODELS BECOMES SATURATED
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
DEWPOINTS...BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT UNDER A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR FOG. NAM/RUC/HRRR
VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL SHOW SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTIONS AND DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE. NO HIGHLITES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AND BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO A COUPLE DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER WAS PERSISTENT THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL. ALOFT...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ONCE AGAIN AS A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SIGNALS HAVE BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT THIS EVENING WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE FEATURE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FIRE ON IS CURRENTLY IN EAST COLORADO. THEREFORE...MADE A
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS
SLIDE EAST...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS...2000-
4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM AND DCAPE
NEAR 1500 J/KG INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF A
FAVORABLE SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT WITH A VERY LARGE HAIL
ENVIRONMENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SUPERCELLS BUT WITH A LESS UNSTABLE
AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FEEL THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAIL IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS TODAY ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS ALSO LIKELY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER READINGS ARE 1.50" TO 2.00"...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...LESS THAN 15 KTS...AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING WILL ALSO HEIGHTEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FOR TOMORROW...ANTICIPATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS A MORE
DISTINGUISHABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONE AGAIN POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX READINGS. DECIDED TO PROCEED WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
100S. ALSO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEWPOINTS TO DECREASE AS FAST AS
SUGGESTED BY A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE. AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT
TREND...VERY HUMID CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 100-107 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALSO PULL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NW U.S. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE U.S. FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE PLAINS RETROGRADES AND
DEVELOPS INTO A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS STATES AT THE SURFACE WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK UP INTO THE 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
KGLD...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
(COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL DATA) IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING
IN FROM THE EAST. AT PRESENT TIME JUST REACHED IFR CIGS. OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TIME THOUGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR VLIFR CIGS FROM 11Z-
15Z PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR. FROM 16Z-20Z JUST A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. FROM 21Z-03Z
WILL BE WATCHING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE TERMINAL. LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES IF THEY WERE TO GO OVER THE TERMINAL. AFTER 04Z
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINAL AREA.
KMCK...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 09Z-15Z IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. FROM 16Z-00Z A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED
WHILE WE AWAIT POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE
TERMINAL FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REACH
THE TERMINAL IN THE 01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WITH
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE VISIBILITIES COULD BE
LOWERED INTO IFR/VLIFR CATEGORY FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ004-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AS WELL AS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. REMNANT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION MAY AFFECT KELD/KMLU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
AREA OF EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.
THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 100 78 99 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 76 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 74 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 77 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 76 99 75 98 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 0 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 78 99 / 0 10 10 10
LFK 75 98 74 97 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
151.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
EXPECT BUILDING 5H RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MID-
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO 18-
20C IN A WSW FLOW. EXPECT INLAND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN
LOWER 90S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER TYPICAL WARM SPOT LOCATIONS LIKE
KENTON...BARAGA OR LA BRANCHE. STILL EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.
WITH RAP MODEL SHOWING MLCAPES 200-700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ITS
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD MAYBE
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR SHRA/TSRA WHICH INCLUDE DRY AIR NOTED BELOW 800 MB OFF
RAP SNDGS...MID-LVL (700-500 MB) LAPSE RATES AROUND ONLY 6C/KM AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT DIV AS RIDGE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WL ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM.
HIGH PRES OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SNEAK IN OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTH WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK TO MODERATE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
UPPER MI SHOULD STAY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
NICE DAY OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EAST OF THE BAY DE NOCS AND ALSO
OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. LAKE BREEZES IN BOTH AREAS SHOULD BE
AID THOSE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES...WHILE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SUPERIOR CONFINED TO
THE SHORELINE. THAT LAKE BREEZE OVER THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR IT.
THE FOCUS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING
TO THE 990S MB RANGE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PINNING
DOWN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS TRICKY AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE EVOLUTION BOTH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE WARM/MOIST ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT (PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.9IN AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S) WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT HELPS WEAKEN ANY CAPPING
IN PLACE TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOUR PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...EXPECT THEM TO BECOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1-2K J/KG
RANGE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TRY TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30KTS.
THINK THOSE BORDERLINE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH THE REALLY
WARM AIR (FREEZING LEVELS OF 14-15KFT)...WILL LIMIT THE HAIL
POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. WHILE THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...THEY
WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN FACTORING
IN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TOWARDS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AND END
TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND BRINGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND A HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON ML WINDS OF
25-30KTS DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT THEY
SHOULDN/T BE AS STRONG AS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...SO WON/T GO OVER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS LOWER MI SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON THAT MAY AFFECT KSAW BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER S MANITOBA LATE
TUESDAY WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
EXPECT BUILDING 5H RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MID-
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO 18-
20C IN A WSW FLOW. EXPECT INLAND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN
LOWER 90S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER TYPICAL WARM SPOT LOCATIONS LIKE
KENTON...BARAGA OR LA BRANCHE. STILL EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.
WITH RAP MODEL SHOWING MLCAPES 200-700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ITS
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD MAYBE
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR SHRA/TSRA WHICH INCLUDE DRY AIR NOTED BELOW 800 MB OFF
RAP SNDGS...MID-LVL (700-500 MB) LAPSE RATES AROUND ONLY 6C/KM AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT DIV AS RIDGE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WL ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM.
HIGH PRES OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SNEAK IN OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTH WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK TO MODERATE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
UPPER MI SHOULD STAY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CONUS WHILE STRONG TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER ROCKIES HELPS DEVELOP
PRETTY STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS OVER
SCNTRL CANADA. GFS SHOWS A LOT OF LGT QPF FM WI INTO UPR MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ITS SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY
SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP WITH JUST A COUPLE THIN LAYERS OF MOISTURE AND
MINIMAL LIFT. PREFER THE DRIER IDEA FM THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL.
ONLY SMALL EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND FAR EAST CWA WITH MOISTURE FM
H8-H7 AND AT LEAST HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BASED WHEN LIFTING FM H85-
H8. PROBABLY JUST AN ACCAS FIELD WITH SPRINKLES OR SHRA. BEST CHANCE
WILL STAY OVER LK SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD FORM
BY AFTN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CONUS KEEPS WEAK
RIDGE BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UNTIL LAKE BREEZES COME ONSHORE IN
THE AFTN...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S OR LOW 90S
WITH SOUNDINGS MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 TEMPS UPWARDS OF +20C BY AFTN.
THUS...WHEN LAKE BREEZE COOLING OCCURS IN THE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR
IT COULD HAVE SOME BITE TO IT...ESPECIALLY AT COPPER HARBOR/MARQUETTE
AND MUNISING WITH MORE OF AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED.
AFTER A MILD/MUGGY NIGHT IN THE 60S MONDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT TIED
TO THE SCNTRL CANADA LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY...FEASIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE WEAKER
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES SLIDING OVER UPPER LAKES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ALL THE MODELS AT
LEAST HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY BUT GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THESE
SHORTWAVE AND SHOWS LGT QPF INTO EASTERN CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THINK
GREATEST FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...NEARER THE TIGHTER GRADIENT OF MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG
AND WHERE MUCAPES ARE OVER 3000 J/KG. CAPPING LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE
FOR CONVECTION CHANCES ON TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE REGION AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING REMAINS STRONGEST WELL TO THE WEST OVER DAKOTAS AND
WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHARPER WARMING CENTERED AT H8 PER NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS. UNLESS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVES ARE STRONGER...PROBABLY WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER UPR MICHIGAN. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO MAKE INTO UPR MICHIGAN LATER IN THE DAY
THOUGH AS MEAN WINDS FM WSW WOULD ADVECT ANY POP-UP SHRA/TSRA TOWARD
SW CWA OUT OF MUCH HIGHER MUCAPE AREA TO THE SW. CAPPING MAY DIMINISH
THAT POTENTIAL THOUGH. SINCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BTWN THE
PLAINS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH...MAIN LAKE MODIFICATION WILL BE OFF LK
MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS PUSHING PAST +20C SUPPORT
A HOT DAY AS LONG AS CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO DISRUPTIVE. MAY SEE MULTIPLE
READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FM IMMEDIATE LK MICHIGAN SHORE.
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DETAILS FAR FM CERTAIN...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THE FROPA SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER LAKES REGION...JUST NOT SURE
IT WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN. INCREASING SW H85 JET DOES BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT INTO UPPER LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C BOOSTING PWATS TO OVER 2.0
INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL TO START NIGHT...BUT DOES RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. H85 JET VEERS MORE
WESTERLY LATE SO MIGHT SEE MORE CONCENTRATED AND STRONGER STORMS
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN CLOSER TO PERSISTENT GRADIENT OF
HIGHER MLCAPE. STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO FOCUSED
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. WARMEST TEMPS AT H8 POINT TO STRONGEST
CAPPING OCCURRING SOUTH THOUGH. KEPT WITH CONSENSUS HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS CWA...HIGHEST SOUTH...GIVEN STRONG FROPA/STRONGER
DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH MUCAPES OVER 1000J/KG OVER UPR MICHIGAN.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD
SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS NEARING 15KFT. MAYBE
BETTER WIND POTENTIAL AS 0-1KM SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS RUNS PERPENDICULAR
TO THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS
COLD POOLS WILL BE ABLE TO BALANCE OUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. WITH
SUCH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A BIG HAZARD AS WELL.
SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FRONT MOVES OUT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COULD BE WINDY BY WEDNESDAY AFTN AS WINDS SHIFT WEST AS SFC LOW
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 995MB HEADS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. GFS FORECAST
SOUDNINGS SHOWED WELL MIX PROFILE ON THE LAKE AND OVER KEWEENAW WITH
WINDS WELL OVER 30 KTS. COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45 MPH OVER
THE MORE EXPOSED KEWEENAW. STILL BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH LINGERING
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. NW WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORELINE
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE IN THE 60S. MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS WITH
NEAR 80 DEGREES STILL POSSIBLE OVER FAR SCNTRL NEAR KMNM DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD RESULT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SYNCHS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND MLCAPES NEARING 500 J/KG. DID NOT CHANGE CONSENSUS POPS. AFTER
THE BLO NORMAL DAY ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK TO 80
DEGREES OR ABOVE FRIDAY THEN SLIP BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS LOWER MI SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON THAT MAY AFFECT KSAW BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER S MANITOBA LATE
TUESDAY WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A COUPLE OF MCVS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY OVER SODAK ARE
NOW DRIFTING OVER MN...BUT ENCOUNTERING DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
AS THEY DO SO...SO THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN
AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS. THE AREA TO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH IS CENTRAL SODAK OUT BY MILLER AND CHAMBERLAIN WHERE SEVERAL
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP. THIS REGION IS ALSO AT THE
EDGE OF A CAPPING EML. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AROUND 21/22Z AND WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. H85 THETA-E GRADIENT...H7
THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-H3 THICKNESSES ALL POINT TO THIS ACTIVITY
BUILDING SE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WORKING DOWN TO OR EVEN SW OF DES
MOINES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE MPX CWA IS THAT WE
ARE LIKELY TO GET NOTHING MORE THAN A GRAZING FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN BEING SW OF THE MN
RIVER IN SW INTO SC MN. THIS IDEA IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL-
WRF AND THE HOP-WRF MEMBERS. THE HRRR SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR AS
WELL...THOUGH THINK IT BRINGS ACTIVITY TOO FAR NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
FOR THE MPX AREA...OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE
WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SPARK
SOME ACCAS TYPE ACTIVITY IN WRN MN...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR IOWA...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DEVELOPMENT UP HERE.
FOR SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT WE WILL NOT
SEE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL WITH DEWPS INCREASING BACK INTO
THE 70S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE MPX CWA...FORCING WILL BE DECIDEDLY
LACKING. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR US IS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL HAVE RISING H5
HEIGHTS ALL DAY. IN ADDITION TO THAT...ANY SORT OF WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN DOWN IN IOWA...SO WE WILL NOT HAVE THAT TO HELP
WITH FORCING DEEP CONVECTION EITHER. IN THE END...RETAINED SOME 30
POPS OR LESS...BUT TRIMMED THAT MENTION DOWN TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MN RIVER. IN GENERAL THOUGH...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD...THOUGH
WARM/HUMID SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE MPX CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY IS THAT OF
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TUESDAY IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. LOCALLY MN/WI BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
WITH A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BL FLOW BUT NO PRONOUNCED TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. 700MB TEMPS AREN`T OVERLY WARM...SO THE CAPPING
ISN`T OVERLY STRONG...THIS IS WHY WE THINK THE GFS TRIES TO
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST ARE ON MONDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF
ARE DRIER IN MID-LEVELS...SO WE THINK THE POP SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE EITHER.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...PWATS THAT
APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE
925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...WE COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT
THE VERY LEAST CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN
THE UPPER 80S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS SOLID BY TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST OFF TODAY`S MODEL
RUNS. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOUTHWEST OF RWF...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MN RIVER INTO CENTRAL MN. THIS AREA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...LIKELY ERODING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE SOMEWHAT AS IT
DOES SO. REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...IT APPEARS MSP SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND AMOUNTS WILL
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
304 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.
Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.
There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.
Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.
Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.
For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.
By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Sunday evening with
partly cloudy skies. There will be a low chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm late tonight around Joplin and
Springfield, but chances look too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Surface winds will remain light out of the south.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IMPACTING
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 25.18Z NAM
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
BETTER THAN 40-45KTS OF DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. IN
ADDITION...THE OPERATIONAL EMC RAP INDICATES ONLY A WEAK CAP
PRESENT. BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHEN LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA PROMOTES UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO A MCS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN IF THE
SOLUTION VERIFIES AS PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1.75" ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT REMAINS MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE...SO HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS AT CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK FRONT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION THIS
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CAP
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
STORM CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY WESTERN
SANDHILLS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO EXIST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...LEAVING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN OF LOWER TO MID-90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER APPARENT TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA ACROSS OUR ZONES. WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KTS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WEST OF VTN THROUGH BBW.
DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BTWN THE NAM AND GFS...INCREASED POPS TO
30-40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCE TRACK NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
WORK INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN ZONES.
ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND
MOVED POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RETURN OF
MOISTURE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY. COVERAGE HOWEVER LOOKS ISOLATED
AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 92 TO 98 MONDAY...COOLING TO LOWER
80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THEN MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR MVFR VISBYS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 22Z AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...AND AFTER 00Z MONDAY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. MUCH WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH/S WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
750 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND WILL FOLLOW. AS EXPECTED
CONVECTION HAS PICKED UP A BIT IN THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND WHILE TRACKING EAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL MAINLY
IMPACT NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. INCREASED POPS HERE TO LIKELY. BY
03Z AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF I-81 IT SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT WITH TIME. LATEST HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNY AND THE FINGER LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH CHANCE POP HERE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW.
MODELS CONT TO SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM MVG THRU LTR
TNGT CONTG TO WEAKEN IN TIME. MODEL QPF AND FCST REFLECTIVITY HAS
BACKED OFF SO HAVE LWRD POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVRNGT.
ESSENTIALLY THE SHRT WV SUPPORT FOR PCPN IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
LVG ONLY SOME LL CONV AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTED BY A BRIEF
LWRG OF HGTS AS THE WV PASSES. ALSO...WITH A LRG HIGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MID LVL WRMG
LIMITS THE AVBL CAPE AND EVEN THE NAM ONLY HAS CAPES OF A FEW
HNDRD OVRNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUBTLE FEATURES AT WORK ON SUN AS THE MODELS SHOW PCPN LINGERING
OVER THE NE CST AND PERHAPS INTO THE XTRM SERN ZONES SUN. SYSTEM
KIND OF STALLS AS THE RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WRN NY BEGINS
TO BLD TRAPPING THE TROF BETWEEN IT AND A RDG OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC. WITH INCRSD HTG A SHWR OR TSTM PSBL OVER THE NEPA ZONES
AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
RDG BLDS IN SOLIDLY FOR MON AND TUE WITH SHRP HGT RISES. TEMPS
MON AFTN AND ESP TUE COULD RCH INTO THE LWR 90S...ESP IN THE SUSQ
VLYS AND ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM SYR WWRD. WRN CATS AND THE TUG
HILL WILL BE THE COOLEST PLACE TO BE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TYPICAL LATE JULY SUMMER
WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BREAK DOWN AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HEIGHTS/THKNS AND H85 TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THIS
WEEK...PEAKING AT 1 SD ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WHICH REALLY
ONLY MEANS WE SHOULD SEE THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S. PWATS ALSO SURGE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR ONE OF
THOSE HOT/HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT SHOT AT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT DISPLACING THE HEAT. THEN...BROAD CYCLONIC
NWLY FLOW APPEARS TO SET UP AGAIN WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS NEXT FRI-SAT WITH MAINLY DRY WX.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF KSYR AND KRME
BY AROUND 07Z. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK
SHOULD THEN STAY PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINAL SITES.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD FORM...MAINLY IN THE 08-12Z TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR. THIS
SEEMED MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KELM...SO A PERIOD OF BELOW
ALTERNATE MINIMUM CONDITIONS WAS INCLUDED. ELSEWHERE FOR OUR
CENTRAL NY SITES (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM)...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT FOG WERE ADDED.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SEEMED MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR AT KBGM AND KAVP...SO PROB30 GROUPS WERE WERE INCLUDED FOR
THESE SITES. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING INTO THE WEST BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AT 5-10 KT.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP...SO WE`VE
ADDED SOME RESTRICTIONS TO KELM AFTER 04Z MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOCAL RADAR INDICATING DWINDLING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST BURLEIGH...NORTHERN
KIDDER...AND SOUTHERN WELLS COUNTIES. EXPECTING A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LOWER
VISIBILITIES FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MOBRIDGE TO ABERDEEN AND
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE BORDER BY 11Z. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
LINTON IS ALREADY AT SATURATION. ONLY OTHER UPDATE WAS TO RAISE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEST GIVEN THEY ARE RUNNING
WARMER THAN FORECAST AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL
BE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. REST OF
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
AREAS OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM POPS DOWN...ONLY
KEEPING LOW POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO THE EAST
OF THE STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS A MODEST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE
STORMS PUSH EAST...GREATER INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A FEW STORMS TO
STRENGTHEN BUT STILL HOLD BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST...THOUGH
EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM THE OREGON/WASHINGTON
COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA/IDAHO AND WILL REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CLOSER TO HOME ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THESE TWO FEATURES A RATHER MARGINAL
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE BIT WITH WEAK SURFACE FEATURES. DO
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT GOING MUCH ABOVE 30 TO 40 POPS TONIGHT WITH
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS IT SEEMS
THE OUTLIER BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. IT GENERATES GENEROUS
PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE
MUCH DRIER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND
CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD FRONT RANGE LOW/TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE BORDER OF ND/SD/WY/MT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY/CAPE FOR CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEST AND NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH.
MONDAY EXPECTING MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FROM THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...BUT WITH TIME A MID-LEVEL THERMAL CAP SHOULD DEVELOP KEEPING
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DRY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY THE CAP MAY BREAK IN THE WEST NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...AND
IN TURN THE SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS THE TIME THAT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
BEST CAPE/BULK SHEAR COUPLET DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL AS MENTION
THIS IN THE GRAPHICAL GRIDS.
TUESDAY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS
COOLER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM 70
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH WEST WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH. WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON TUESDAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY AS IT ENTERS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KISN/KDIK/KMOT. A VCTS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AT
THESE TERMINALS. KBIS AND KJMS WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
324 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ARE VFR
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...BUT EXPECTING SOME MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR TO
DEVELOP FROM NOW THROUGH MID MORNING. TOL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
IFR WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR
MOST OTHERS EXPECTING AN EARLY MVFR SCT-BKN SKY TO LIFT TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW OR WIDESPREAD AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME NON VFR FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IT TO THE TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY SUNDAY
EVENING. CLEAR SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER
EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALL NIGHT JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY
BORDER. PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF 850 MB LLJ
IS MAINTAINING PRE DAWN SHRA/TSRA EAST OF THE FINGERLAKES REGION
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CATSKILLS. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB JET MAX. FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED EARLY TODAY ACROSS MY AREA...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO TONIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. HRRR
COVERAGE FAVORS AREAS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS BEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SINCE LAST TUESDAY...COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO INITIAL H5 RIDGING.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY... RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS FLATTENS 5H RIDGE AXIS OVER PA BY
00Z MON. MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE PLACE AROUND
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 22Z...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
H5 TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH H5 RIDGING
RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST. THUS POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IN VICINITY OF DEPARTING
UPPER TROF...DECREASING LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUN MAXES. NORTHWEST HALF OF
PA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINS SOUPY WITH TD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S.
DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF
FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO
BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ
VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT
FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP BFD AND JST FROM DECOUPLING AND FROM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING LOW ENOUGH FOR DENSE PATCHY FOG/MIST TO
FORM. HOWEVER AOO...UNV AND LNS ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR
PATCHY FOG/MIST. ANY OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR HAS IT PRESSING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
16Z TO 18Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING AND OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
410 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RING OF FIRE LIES JUST NORTH OF MY AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE BEST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF 850 MB JET IS INITIATING AND
MAINTAINING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FINGERLAKES REGION
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CATSKILLS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE 850 MB JET MAX...BUT WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
MY AREA OVERNIGHT...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN THIS THROUGH
DAWN.
KEPT HIGHEST POPS WELL NORTH OF I80...GENERALLY HIGHEST ALONG AND
NORTH OF ROUTE 6. MOST AREAS WILL SEE VARYING AMTS OF ALTO CU AND
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHCS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STAND AT
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF RT
6 IN NRN PA STAND THE BEST CHC OF SEEING A SHOWER.
SINCE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 60-65F...IT WON/T FEEL
ALL THAT MUGGY. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S...BUT THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS COULD GET COOLER IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT. OTHERWISE...
MAINTAINED PERIODS OF BKN-OVC STRATO AND ALTOCU CLOUDS ACROSS THAT
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SCT SKY COVER IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY BUT IS
ALREADY TOUGH TO FIND/ANALYZE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT. OF COURSE
BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES HERE...THE WIND SHIFT WILL NOT BE AS
DRASTIC AS IT IS THIS AFTN OVER LOWER MI AND SRN WI. BEFORE IT
PASSES THOUGH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH CAPES PER THE NAM WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER IN
PUSHING THE SFC FRONT THROUGH. THE GFS IS NOT SO BULLISH WITH THE
CAPES DUE TO A MUCH QUICKER FROPA. WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO THE
TIMING SOLUTION FROM THE NAM WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER
MESO MODELS AND THE ECMWF. THIS KEEP CONTINUITY WITH TIMING FROM
PREV FCSTS AS WELL. NUDGED POPS A BIT HIGHER IN THE CENTRAL AND SE
FOR THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCH UP THRU THE
DAY...MAKING IT HAZY HOT AND HUMID WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
80S.
SFC COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BE AN ODD THING...AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DRIER. THE DEWPOINTS MAY ACTUALLY
RISE SOME SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT THE SHOWERS WILL SINK TO THE SE AND
DISSIPATE/BECOME LESS NUMEROUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID
ATLC LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE NRN SEGMENT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE SRN PORTION LOOKS TO STALL OUT
FROM THE OH RIVER TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. RISK FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHER TIER COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF
FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO
BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ
VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT
FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP BFD AND JST FROM DECOUPLING AND FROM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING LOW ENOUGH FOR DENSE PATCHY FOG/MIST TO
FORM. HOWEVER AOO...UNV AND LNS ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR
PATCHY FOG/MIST. ANY OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR HAS IT PRESSING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
16Z TO 18Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING AND OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AIR MOVING WWD
FROM LOUISIANA AND OFFSHORE TOWARD SE TX. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED W/ SOME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...MAKING IT INTO CNTL LA YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAD A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS YDAY...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE TODAY ESP IN
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL
STILL NEED TO OVERCOME QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BUT FELT LIKE
ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FCST IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. HRRR &
TX TECH WRF BOTH SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT & MUGGY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS
OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE
INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE
OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ISOLATED THRU THURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES...DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES BACK
IN...AND POSSIBLY A DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR SEABREEZE PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR HOPEFULLY BETTER AREAL PRECIP CHANCES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN
A WHILE. ADVERTISED POPS IN OUR FCST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD COULD BE
TOO LOW...BUT PREFER TO NUDGE THEM UP W/ TIME AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES - VERSUS THE OPPOSITE. 47
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NO CAUTION FLAGS
ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SE
TX LATE IN THE WEEK (THURS/FRI) BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER ITS PROXIMITY WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A MORE W/SWLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE GENERAL FCSTS OF VFR FOR THE DAYTIME
HRS. VERY ISO PCPN ALONG THE SEABREEZE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN...BUT
THE BETTER CHCS NOT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE APPRO-
ACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS (09-12Z) WILL ALSO PERSIST. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 98 77 98 / 20 20 20 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 82 92 82 92 / 20 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
STALL...AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOTS OF CAPPING ALOFT
VIA DRY AIR OFF SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER STILL COULD POP ANOTHER LOW
TOPPED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER OLD OUTFLOW AND
LINGERING THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE LOSS OF
HEATING. LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA
OVERNIGHT SO MAY LEAVE IN A MENTION A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE WEST.
OTRW EXPECT SOME LINGERING STRATO-CU OVERNIGHT TO GRADUALLY FADE
BEFORE AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP ESPCLY SW SECTIONS WHERE
EARLIER HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. ALSO BEEFED UP FOG IN SOME OF
THE VALLEYS AS EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
BUMPED UP LOWS A LITTLE IN SPOTS UNDER HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH
SHOULD KEEP ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 60S OVERALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH LOSE OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...LEADING TO PATCHY FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. A SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...ANY STRONG CONVECTION ON THE OUTER RINGS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...POSSIBLY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE...SUNDAY`S AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS.
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WITH A WARM START
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ZEROING IN ON POSSIBLE DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE
BEGINNING OF MONDAY. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE PRECIP
FIELDS...BUT THINK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL BE ONLY
CHANCE RANGE AT BEST.
BY MONDAY WHILE WE MAY SEE MORE CLOUD COVER THE LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS LEADING TO MORE CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN HITTING THE MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL BROADBRUSH THREAT CWA
WIDE...THOUGH THINK THE CHANCE IS GOING TO BE 40/50 AROUND AND
EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER
THREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK NORTHEAST. THERE COULD SOME ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA/NW NC MAYBE HAVING
30ISH CHANCE.
TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING...ESPECIALLY LOWS AS HEIGHTS BUILD. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 70 EAST. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT THE
SAME.
HIGHS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S
SOUTHEAST...BUT THE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT SATURDAY...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE STICKS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY THURSDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AREA SINKS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE
TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS WERE KEEPING THREAT OF
SFC WAVES COMING UP THE FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST COAST FRI-SAT THOUGH
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE REGARDING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
CONSENSUS KEEPING MORE AN INLAND LOW WITH FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF STORMS IN THE THU
NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH FRONT SLOWING UP OVER THE COAST BY
SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SATURDAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY.
TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY DROP A
LITTLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY IF THE
FRONT MOVES FAR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 0155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE
WE DEAL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON SUNDAY. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS
STREAMING IN FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL UPSTREAM...WHILE THE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPS A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BY
DAYBREAK. TYPICAL FOG MAGNET KLWB SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH
WITH THE THIN CLOUD COVER TO GENERATE LIFR VSBYS IN FOG. ANY
FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND GIVE WAY TO A
DEVELOPING CU FIELD.
THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON DOES
NOT HAVE BIG FORCING WITH IT AND BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
QUITE MEAGER. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD AND DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL USE ONLY VCSH WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. OUTSIDE MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING MAINLY VALLEY FOG...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
LATE IN THE COMING WORKWEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
POTENTIAL DEEP FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...MBS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
...INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MONSOONAL PLUME EXTENDING THOUGH NRN NM
AND INTO SE CO THIS MORNING. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER
SRN NM AND AZ...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER OUR AREA
LATER TODAY. ALSO...LEAD IMPULSE FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL
INCREASE FORCING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. WILL SEE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR WX
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...MAINLY FOR HAIL AND WINDS. LATEST HRRR HAS
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN MTS BY LATE
MORNING...MOVING EAST TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 20-21Z...THEN INTO
KS BY EARLY EVE. OTHER MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT THE
COMMON THEME IS INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS BY EARLY
EVENING. H7 TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...SO POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NR 100 IS THERE...BUT EARLIER TIMING
OF CONVECTION MAY PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE STORMS ON THE WANE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TO THE KS BORDER BY LATE EVENING...WHILE RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE WRN ZONES. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND/OR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE
60S OVR THE PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MONDAY...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS DAY. SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH G30 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION. WE MAY START APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN
SOME LOCATIONS ON THIS DAY. EXPECT HI TEMPS THIS DAY WILL RANGE IN
THE U90S/L100S PLAINS...80S VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL COOL THE TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT
IT WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST POPS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NITE. THIS 2ND DISTURBANCE WILL DRIVE A
STRONGER FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TUE NITE.
WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY THIS DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
AOA 80F PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S MTNS AND ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. THE DAY WILL LIKELY START OFF CLOUDY AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
OVERALL DRY WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY THIS PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER...OR JUST TO THE WEST OF...THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION IN WEAK WNW TO NW FLOW AT
MID LVLS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY ALLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL START DRYING OUT AS THE MONSOON
TAP WILL BE BLOCKED BY THIS MID LVL FLOW PATTERN. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE INCREASED TS ACTIVITY TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WILL BE FROM AROUND 19Z-23Z. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE E...NR THE KS BORDER. TS
ACTIVITY THIS EVE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CIGS AT KCOS AND KPUB IN
THE 03Z TO 12Z TIME PERIOD TONIGHT. WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN
TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN ATTM. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.
IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION... THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITHIN THE
HOUR. THE SHOWERS THAT STRETCHED FROM FLAGLER COUNTY TO NORTH LAKE
COUNTY WERE SLOWLY DISSIPATING PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. GIVEN THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE...2.15 INCHES AND 2.17 INCHES PER THE 12Z/8AM TAMPA
AND CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STORM/SHOWER MOTION GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
SEA BREEZES WILL BE FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH WHERE THERE IS
A FORECAST FOR MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW...THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF IT
DEVELOPS AT ALL.
GRID CLEANING AND WILL LOOK AT LATEST SHORT RANGE WIND FORECASTS
THEN UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THRU 27/12...Z STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SWRLY WINDS SOUTH KISM-KTIX...NERLY WINDS
NORTH OF IT. CHC MVFR SHRAS E OF KVRB-KOBE THRU 26/12Z...ALL SITES
BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z. BTWN 26/16Z-26/24Z...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR
TSRAS INTERIOR SITES WITH A SLGT CHC +TSRAS WITH SFC WND
G35KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS COASTAL SITES. AFT 27/00Z-
27/04Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS ALL SITES. AFT
27/04Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS.
.MARINE...PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS N OF
SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW S OF THE INLET WILL KEEP
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. CHOPPY WIND WAVES THRU
MIDDAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS WITH DOMINANT PDS BTWN 4-5SECS. PDS
WILL LENGTHEN TO 6-8SEC FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD AFT SUNSET AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW DAMPENS OUT THE WIND CHOP. SCT/NMRS OFFSHORE MOVING
SHRAS/TSRAS WITH STRONG SFC WND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MARINE
HAZARD TODAY.
PREVIOUS AFD
TODAY/TONIGHT...
A RATHER COMPLEX WX PATTERN TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY
DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE TRAPPED BTWN A DEEP LYR
ANTICYCLONE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...AND THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER
ANTILLES. TROF AXIS MARKED BY SWRLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND NERLY FLOW NORTH OF IT. EVNG SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLEAR FROPA AT
KJAX WITH NE WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR AND SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
ABV H70...KTBW/KXMR SHOW THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THEM WITH LIGHT
W/SW FLOW THRU H100-H70 AND A NEARLY SATURATED H100-H50 LYR.
SUFFICIENT LOW LCL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA WITH PWAT
VALUES BTWN 2.1"-2.2". RAP ANALYSIS BACKS THIS UP WITH H100-H70 MEAN
RH AOA 90PCT OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA AND H85-H50 MEAN
RH BTWN 70-85PCT OVER CENTRAL FL...DECREASING TO AOB 40PCT N OF THE
BIG BEND.
WEAK PGRAD ALONG AND N OF THE FRNTL BNDRY MARKED BY LIGHT W/SW FLOW
THRU THE H100-H70 LYR ON THE USAF 915 HZ PROFILER WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PGRAD ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE
FORMATION. EVEN SO...LIMITED STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE RULE ONCE
AGAIN AS WARM MID LVL TEMPS LIMIT DEEP LYR THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY: H70 TEMPS BTWN 8-9C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -5C ARE YIELDING
LAPSE RATES BTWN 5.0-5.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE
H85-H70 WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMP
TRIGGERS ARE REACHED (M80S-L90S)...WHICH WILL LEAVE LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS TO BUILD UP SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO BECOME
EXPLOSIVE.
DESPITE THE HI MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF...HRRR AND
LCL WRF MODELS ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC THAN THE 26/00Z MAV POPS. TROF
AXIS OVERHEAD HAS WEAKENED THE MID LVL STEERING WINDS...RESULTING IN
A NOTEWORTHY VORT MIN OVER E CENTRAL FL. UPR LVLS ARE LARGELY
NEUTRAL AS WELL WITH NO SIG JET STREAKS IN THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...
WHILE WEAK...GFS DOES INDICATE AN ERLY H85-H50 STEERING COMPONENT
THAT WOULD TEND TO FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN PENINSULA WILL
GO WITH 60/70 POPS INTERIOR AND 50 POPS ALNG THE COAST...BCMG 30-
40PCT CHC OVERNIGHT. THREAT FOR LCL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS RECENT
RAINFALL HAS PUSHED ERC VALUES BLO 20 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BULK OF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFT PEAK HEATING HRS...BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
U80S/L90S...ESP COASTAL REGIONS FROM THE CAPE NWD DUE TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M70S AREAWIDE SUGGEST ABV AVG MIN TEMPS
IN THE M/U70.
MON-WED...
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GRADUALLY ELONGATES AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH
A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A FEW WEAK
SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES...ANYWHERE FROM
THE EASTERN GULF TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BUT THESE FEATURES ARE ALL
FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND WEAK. GENERALLY TREND WILL BE FOR THE BOUNDARY
TO MEANDER AROUND TAMPA/ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD
DRIFT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY..GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE...WILL BE LOWER IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS. DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS BETTER RAIN CHANCES FROM
OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTHWARDS. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK CURRENTLY
ON MONDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS 60-70% AND THEN LOWER COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT 40-60% AS SOME OVERALL DRYING WORKS INTO
THE AREA AND THE TROUGH FURTHER WASHES OUT.
THU-SAT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGMIDH THE FEATURE OVERALL
WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...TAKING WITH
IT THE DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG IT. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
OFFSET BY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL BRING ANY
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS. POPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT 40-50%.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 27/12Z
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE
SWRLY WINDS SOUTH KISM-KTIX...NERLY WINDS NORTH OF IT. CHC MVFR
SHRAS E OF KVRB-KOBE THRU 26/12Z...ALL SITES BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z.
BTWN 26/16Z-26/24Z...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS INTERIOR SITES
WITH A SLGT CHC +TSRAS WITH SFC WND G35KTS.MID..SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD
IFR TSRAS COASTAL SITES. AFT 27/00Z-27/04Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC
IFR TSRAS ALL SITES. AFT 27/04Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET TO THE STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW S OF THE INLET WILL KEEP SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. CHOPPY WIND WAVES THRU MIDDAY DUE
TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS WITH DOMINANT PDS BTWN 4-5SECS. PDS WILL
LENGTHEN TO 6-8SEC FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD AFT SUNSET AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW DAMPENS OUT THE WIND CHOP. SCT/NMRS OFFSHORE MOVING SHRAS/TSRAS
WITH STRONG SFC WND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARD TODAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO LATE WEEK. PREVAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER MOST OFMID THE WEEK...KEEPING
WINDS EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY WILL LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD EVEN THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS BY
THURSDAY. CHOPPY SEAS 2-3FT...OCCASIONALLY UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 76 89 74 / 50 30 60 40
MCO 89 75 91 75 / 70 40 70 40
MLB 86 75 91 76 / 50 30 60 40
VRB 88 75 92 75 / 50 30 60 40
LEE 89 76 90 77 / 60 40 70 40
SFB 89 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40
ORL 89 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40
FPR 88 77 92 75 / 50 30 60 40
MID
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
928 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION
OVER THE LENGTH OF CANADA. A DEEP TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANCHORED BY CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE FLOW THEN RIDGES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH AROUND A CLOSED LOW
FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE IS EXTENDING
NORTH FROM LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN
FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN A NORTH/NE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CIRCULATION. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
DEFINED...AND WE FIND A WEAK/POORLY DEFINED DISTURBANCE/VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SPINNING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST/EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...HOWEVER THE DRIEST AIR IS STAYING NORTH/NW
OF OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...GENERALLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PENINSULA. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING APPEARED TO BE
ON THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH A MOIST PROFILE
THROUGH ABOUT 400MB...AND A PW VALUE OF 2.15". THIS VALUE IS UP
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF PWATS FOR LATE JULY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE MOIST PROFILE COMES WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES THROUGH THE LOWER/MID TROP. ONE OF THE PARAMETERS WE GIVE A
QUICK LOOK AT WHEN INITIALLY ANALYZING A SOUNDING PROFILE DURING
THE SUMMER FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THE 500MB TEMPS. THE 500MB
TEMP THIS MORNING IS MEASURED AT -4.5C. THIS IS VERY WARM...EVEN
FOR MID SUMMER AND REPRESENT A VALUE OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
JULY. THIS SOUNDING IS ONE INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS...BUT OF LOW SEVERE THREAT. THE WEAK
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAKER UPDRAFT...KEEP HAIL
AND PRECIP LOADING AT A MINIMUM...AND IN FACT...OVERALL LIGHTING
COUNTS SHOULD BE LOW TODAY AS WELL DUE TO THE HIGHER ALTITUDE OF
MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS.
AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR TAMPA BAY...HOWEVER
USING SURFACE OBS...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE EXACTLY WHERE
THIS FEATURE IS. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE SPIN SEEN WITH THE RADAR
RETURNS IS MUCH MORE LIKELY A COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. SPEAKING OF RADAR...AS OF MID MORNING...THE GREATEST
SHOWER COVERAGE IS ALONG THE SUNCOAST TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THESE COASTAL SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...JUST A FEW MORE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE BEGIN SAMPLED.
HOWEVER...WITH DIURNAL HEATING UNDERWAY...PLENTY OF HIGH SOIL
MOISTURE AND COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE BREAKING OUT. ALTHOUGH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL AREAS SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR EVERYONE THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE WE
HAVE SEEN SO MUCH RAIN IN MANY PLACES THE PAST 72 HOURS...AND SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE FLOOD
WATCH REMAIN UP UNDER THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES...FROM
PASCO/POLK COUNTIES SOUTHWARD.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CLOUDY/SHOWERY SKIES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SUNCOAST...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE BEING OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA THIS MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SUN IS DECEPTIVE
AS IT WILL ONLY HELP TO FUEL THE ENERGY FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BY THE TIME WE REACH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE
SOLUTION YOU USE...THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW MAY DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...BUT AN ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...OR BE PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT (AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) WILL BE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST COUNTIES WITH THE CONVERGENT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT...AND
WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILE.
FOR MONDAY...SURFACE LOW DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL
BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS OCCURS THE MORE FAVORABLE ONSHORE COMPONENT
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT OR EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE
END RESULT IS ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNT
WHERE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONGEAL OFF THE GULF. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE AND DETERMINE IF AN EXTENSION OF
THE FLOOD WATCH FURTHER IN TIME PAST 00Z THIS EVENING MAY BE
APPROPRIATE. THE SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE QUITE
SATURATED...AND ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL COULD
CERTAINLY POSE A CONTINUED CONCERN. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY MAY NOT GET INTO A DEFINED ONSHORE FLOW IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE EVENTUAL LATE DAY LOW POSITION...HOWEVER THEIR
COLUMN WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE LEADING TO SCT-NMRS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK U/L
TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
A NORTHERN STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT SINKING DOWN TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA REINFORCING THE TROUGH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
NORTH FLORIDA.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...WITH A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT MOVING WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SUPPRESSING THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
PCPW VALUES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE MORNING SPREADING OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THE INTERIOR
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE.
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION HOWEVER DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SPREADING INLAND AND INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS...
WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH
VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KSRQ/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH GENERALLY PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS.
FURTHER NORTH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPING STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF ON AND OFF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD TOWARD APALACHEE BAY DURING
MONDAY. WINDS AROUND THIS CIRCULATION WILL GENERALLY GIVE AN
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. DURING MONDAY...THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OUR FORECAST WATERS BY THE END OF THE DAY. A GENERAL
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES
WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM PASCO COUNTY
SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY...AND FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF
POLK...HARDEE...AND DESOTO. DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...IT WILL TAKE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAIN IN MANY AREAS FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN AREAS TO DEVELOP TODAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN OF
1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A FLOOD WARNING FOR MODERATE RIVER FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...AND THIS RIVER HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RISES ALREADY TODAY. IF HEAVY RAIN BECOMES CONCENTRATED IN OTHER
RIVER BASINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. THE MOST AT RISK RIVERS FOR FLOODING TO
DEVELOP ARE THE ALAFIA...LITTLE MANATEE...PEACE...AND MYAKKA
RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS CREEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 77 85 79 / 70 50 60 30
FMY 86 77 86 78 / 100 70 70 30
GIF 89 76 85 75 / 70 40 70 30
SRQ 87 77 85 79 / 70 60 70 40
BKV 90 74 85 76 / 70 40 70 30
SPG 88 77 84 80 / 70 50 70 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
909 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
12Z SOUNDING SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES...WHICH IS ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AWAY FROM THE MAXIMUM PWAT FOR THE DATE. VERY
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 16.6KFT WILL PROMOTE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR TAMPA TODAY...WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
FLOWING INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF
LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS WHERE
TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SETS UP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KAPF...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY REMAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO KEPT VCSH OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND NORTH FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF ANY CONVECTION GENERALLY
NORTH OF I75. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TODAY WILL STILL SEE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE SFC LOW IS STILL FAIRLY
BROAD, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
CONTRACT AND CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
BACK THE EAST FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ACCORDING TO
THE MOST CURRENT MODELS. THIS WILL LOWER CHANCES OF CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A 500MB LOW PARKED OVER
IT TODAY. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, MOST OF THE INDICES
ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, EXCEPT FOR THE PWATS, WHICH WERE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. THE SFC BASED CAPE WAS AROUND 800J, THE LAPSE RATES
WERE LESS THAN 6C/KM AT THE VARIOUS LEVELS. NCAPE WAS ONLY .07.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS OVER 15K FT. THE 500MB TEMP WAS BETWEEN -6
AND -5C. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WHICH
HAS BEEN JUST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER THE GULF COAST,
SOUTH OF NAPLES.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY, THE 500MB TEMP
STAYS RIGHT AROUND -5.5C. THE FREEZING LEVEL STAYS BETWEEN 15K AND
16K FT. THE LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE 6C/KM OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS, IMMOKALEE LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CAPE, AND THAT IS ONLY AROUND 1100J, FAIRLY LOW FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT, THE PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5
INCHES. NCAPE IS .1 OR LESS. THE MBE VELOCITY IS SHOWING BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS. TODAY REALLY LOOKS MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SHOWER DAY,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. BUT, THE SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY, GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. THEY ALSO INDICATE THERE
COULD BE SOME BACK BUILDING OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS, MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR. BUT ALONG THE COAST, THEY MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FLOODING IN THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKING AT MODEL
PROBABILITIES, THERE IS LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY
FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
LAST NIGHT, WHICH SHOWED NEARLY A 70 PERCENT CHANCE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR FOR THE TYPE OF PATTERN FOR TODAY, IT
DOES SHOW THE GULF COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT ALSO SHOWS THE ATLANTIC
COAST MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. IT SHOWS THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS IN WAVES TODAY. AGAIN, THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BEGIN SOMETIME AROUND 2 TO 3PM, AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS DIURNAL HEATING SETS UP AFT 14Z, TSRA IS AGAIN
EXPECTED NEAR ALL TERMINALS AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A CONTINUATION OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
KOB
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GULF MAY SEE SOME WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO
5 FT OFFSHORE. THE ATLANTIC WILL SEE CALMER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THERE WILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT CHANCES WILL BE LOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEY MAY BE ELEVATED ALONG THE GULF COAST
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 92 77 / 70 50 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 91 79 / 60 40 40 10
MIAMI 88 77 92 79 / 60 30 40 10
NAPLES 85 79 88 79 / 100 60 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KAPF...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY REMAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO KEPT VCSH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND NORTH FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF ANY CONVECTION GENERALLY
NORTH OF I75. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TODAY WILL STILL SEE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE SFC LOW IS STILL FAIRLY
BROAD, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
CONTRACT AND CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
BACK THE EAST FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ACCORDING TO
THE MOST CURRENT MODELS. THIS WILL LOWER CHANCES OF CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A 500MB LOW PARKED OVER
IT TODAY. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, MOST OF THE INDICES
ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, EXCEPT FOR THE PWATS, WHICH WERE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. THE SFC BASED CAPE WAS AROUND 800J, THE LAPSE RATES
WERE LESS THAN 6C/KM AT THE VARIOUS LEVELS. NCAPE WAS ONLY .07.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS OVER 15K FT. THE 500MB TEMP WAS BETWEEN -6
AND -5C. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WHICH
HAS BEEN JUST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER THE GULF COAST,
SOUTH OF NAPLES.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY, THE 500MB TEMP
STAYS RIGHT AROUND -5.5C. THE FREEZING LEVEL STAYS BETWEEN 15K AND
16K FT. THE LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE 6C/KM OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS, IMMOKALEE LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CAPE, AND THAT IS ONLY AROUND 1100J, FAIRLY LOW FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT, THE PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5
INCHES. NCAPE IS .1 OR LESS. THE MBE VELOCITY IS SHOWING BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS. TODAY REALLY LOOKS MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SHOWER DAY,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. BUT, THE SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY, GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. THEY ALSO INDICATE THERE
COULD BE SOME BACK BUILDING OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS, MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR. BUT ALONG THE COAST, THEY MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FLOODING IN THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKING AT MODEL
PROBABILITIES, THERE IS LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY
FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
LAST NIGHT, WHICH SHOWED NEARLY A 70 PERCENT CHANCE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR FOR THE TYPE OF PATTERN FOR TODAY, IT
DOES SHOW THE GULF COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT ALSO SHOWS THE ATLANTIC
COAST MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. IT SHOWS THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS IN WAVES TODAY. AGAIN, THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BEGIN SOMETIME AROUND 2 TO 3PM, AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS DIURNAL HEATING SETS UP AFT 14Z, TSRA IS AGAIN
EXPECTED NEAR ALL TERMINALS AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A CONTINUATION OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
KOB
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GULF MAY SEE SOME WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO
5 FT OFFSHORE. THE ATLANTIC WILL SEE CALMER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THERE WILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT CHANCES WILL BE LOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEY MAY BE ELEVATED ALONG THE GULF COAST
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 92 77 / 70 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 91 79 / 60 20 40 10
MIAMI 88 77 92 79 / 60 20 40 10
NAPLES 85 79 88 79 / 100 60 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS. HI RES GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TRYING
TO SHOW CONVECTION BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER RADAR STILL REMAINS
QUIET. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY
NOON THOUGH. HRRR IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LOCAL WRF. FORECAST POPS MAY NOT BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH BUT SINCE THE HI RES MODELS ARE A LITTLE OFF WITH
INITIATION TIMING...AM HOLDING OFF ON MAKING CHANGES TO POPS FOR
NOW. ONCE WE CAN GET MORE OF A TREND THEN WILL RE-EVALUATE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUSTMENT POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS EACH DAY WHERE SOME OROGRAPHIC HELP
WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEAT
INDICES THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
20
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
LONG TERM MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH BUILD THE H5 HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE HIGH WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE WEST ALLOWING A
TROUGH TO START DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE UNDER THE HIGH THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THEN COOL SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
17
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 720 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 14Z...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT
THE TAF SITES. FEW/SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY 14Z
BETWEEN 2-3KFT AGL...LIFTING INTO A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN
4-6KFT AGL BY 18Z. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS 7-10KFT AGL AFTER 22Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z
AND 02Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
THROUGH 14Z...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 4-8KT AFTER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 92 71 94 73 / 10 10 20 20
ATLANTA 92 73 92 77 / 10 10 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 88 66 / 30 40 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 93 74 96 77 / 10 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 90 73 92 74 / 20 20 30 20
MACON 93 70 96 72 / 10 10 10 5
ROME 92 72 94 72 / 10 10 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 92 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
VIDALIA 93 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
614 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN OK, WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW SAT OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE WERE A COUPLE MCS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING MAINLY INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THE
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF MORNING
CONVECTION MAY THROW A WRENCH IN THE FORECAST LIKE YESTERDAY. MOST
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION FALLING APART BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SOME SINCE AS THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN MCV OR VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THAT WOULD FORCE IT`S CONTINUATION LATE INTO THE DAY. THE ONLY WILD
CARD MAY THE MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH IA. IF THIS SYSTEM, WITH A
BETTER DEFINED COLD POOL, WERE TO LAY DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS MAY END UP STAYING COOLER. BUT THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO SIGNAL
FROM THE MODELS FOR CONTINUED PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH A HOT AND HUMID DAY
IN STORE ONCE AGAIN. BUT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY
FORCING AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT GOOD INSOLATION BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 875MB. THIS SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. NORTH CENTRAL KS COULD SEE SOME LOWER
DEWPOINTS FROM THE AFTERNOON MIXING. NEVERTHELESS HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 105 EVEN WITH SOME MODEST MIXING OF THE
DEWPOINTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAD ADVISORY AS IS
FOR NOW AND MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
TONIGHT THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
NORTHERN CO AND WANT TO PROPAGATE IT EAST ALONG THE KS/NEB STATE
LINE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PROG A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND LOWERING HEIGHTS.
BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN. SINCE MODELS WEAKEN THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BEFORE BRINGING IT
INTO EASTERN KS, HAVE KEPT POPS TONIGHT BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR EAST
CENTRAL KS THINKING CONVECTION MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE THAT DEEP
INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THINK LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE THE WESTERN US SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES
AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST KS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NE. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DURING
THE NIGHT UNDER THE H5 RIDGE AXIS.
MONDAY MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AS SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THE MIXING
MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL RANGE FROM
104 TO 110.
ON TUESDAY THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEPER MIXING ALLOWING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MIXING DOWN
INTO THE MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAY BE IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY ONLY REACH THE 100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY NOT SEE AS DEEP OF MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THUS, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE FROM 103 TO 107 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE THE H5 TROUGH AXIS, COMBINED WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH HE AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE NE BORDER TO NEAR 90 SOUTH OF I-35.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL US. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...THUS THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL US
EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE THE
HOT WEATHER MAY RETURN TO EASTERN KS INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
REASONABLY WELL, SHOWING THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN ABILENE AND
MHK. BASED ON THE HRRR, THINK STORMS WILL BE EAST OF MHK BY 12Z
AND TOP/FOE AROUND 14Z. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WHEN VSBY
MIGHT TEMPORARILY BE MVFR, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITH NO OBVIOUS FEATURE TO FORCE CONVECTION LATER
TODAY, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES TO INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1156 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
EXPECT BUILDING 5H RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MID-
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO 18-
20C IN A WSW FLOW. EXPECT INLAND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN
LOWER 90S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER TYPICAL WARM SPOT LOCATIONS LIKE
KENTON...BARAGA OR LA BRANCHE. STILL EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.
WITH RAP MODEL SHOWING MLCAPES 200-700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ITS
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD MAYBE
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR SHRA/TSRA WHICH INCLUDE DRY AIR NOTED BELOW 800 MB OFF
RAP SNDGS...MID-LVL (700-500 MB) LAPSE RATES AROUND ONLY 6C/KM AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT DIV AS RIDGE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WL ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM.
HIGH PRES OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SNEAK IN OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTH WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK TO MODERATE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
UPPER MI SHOULD STAY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
NICE DAY OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EAST OF THE BAY DE NOCS AND ALSO
OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. LAKE BREEZES IN BOTH AREAS SHOULD BE
AID THOSE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES...WHILE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SUPERIOR CONFINED TO
THE SHORELINE. THAT LAKE BREEZE OVER THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR IT.
THE FOCUS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING
TO THE 990S MB RANGE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PINNING
DOWN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS TRICKY AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE EVOLUTION BOTH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE WARM/MOIST ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT (PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.9IN AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S) WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT HELPS WEAKEN ANY CAPPING
IN PLACE TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOUR PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...EXPECT THEM TO BECOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1-2K J/KG
RANGE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TRY TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30KTS.
THINK THOSE BORDERLINE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH THE REALLY
WARM AIR (FREEZING LEVELS OF 14-15KFT)...WILL LIMIT THE HAIL
POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. WHILE THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...THEY
WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN FACTORING
IN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TOWARDS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AND END
TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND BRINGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND A HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON ML WINDS OF
25-30KTS DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT THEY
SHOULDN/T BE AS STRONG AS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...SO WON/T GO OVER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN HIGH SETTLES
OVER LOWER MI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS...HIGHEST EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AS IT TRIES TO SINK DOWN TOWARDS SAW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER S MANITOBA LATE
TUESDAY WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WE INCREASED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH. WE EXTENDED THE
CHANCE INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MOVING A BIT NORTH BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND IF AND
WHEN TO INTRODUCE POPS.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE SCOOTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WERE FROM MILLE LACS LAKE TO JUST SOUTH OF SIREN AS OF
08Z. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AS WELL BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GO DRY THIS MORNING IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL BURN
OFF BETWEEN 8 AM AND 9 AM.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TODAY ON NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TODAY WHICH
WOULD DISCOURAGE NEW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
CAMS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR FAR NORTH AND WE ALREADY
HAD A CHANCE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THERE. IT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOST OF THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT DESPITE
SOME WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME FOG IN
SPOTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE.
WE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO
FOCUS CONVECTION...BUT THINK THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
A SUBTLE UPPERWAVE MAY SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. WINDS WILL TURN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS FIRE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
HOT...HUMID...AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISE INTO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...DEFINITELY THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AT LOW LEVELS...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
PREVENT MUCH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT
/INCREASING TO ABOUT 40KTS/ WILL SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAY
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN WITH PWAT VALUES
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMO...BUT 20-
30KT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD RISK. BEST TIMING
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE
35 SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMEST OF THE
SUMMER...APPROACHING 90 ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER DOWN AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN PINE AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND WITH DEW
POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100.
WED/THURS/FRI...COOLER AND DRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS. HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 80S THURS/FRI.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.
SAT...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT MODEL VARIABILITY TOO
LARGE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES RESOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT
AS FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS OUT OF THE S-SW TODAY DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 20 40
INL 86 64 87 68 / 20 10 10 40
BRD 86 65 86 69 / 30 10 20 70
HYR 85 63 85 68 / 10 10 20 40
ASX 87 63 87 66 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1054 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO FORECAST AT PRESENT. MASSIVE
DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND A MUCH DRYER AIRMASS OBSERVED IN THE 12Z UA SOUNDING
WITH A PW OF 1.39. ALTHOUGH HRRR IS FORECASTING SOME LIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH BEGINNING NOW...VISIBLE
IMAGERY NOT EVEN SHOWING ANY CU DEVELOPMENT YET. CURRENT POP FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT GOING IN THE SOUTH...NOT SURE ABOUT THAT NOW WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO INITIATE./26/
&&
.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.
BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.
MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 100 74 99 74 / 6 4 6 10
MERIDIAN 97 73 97 73 / 6 4 7 9
VICKSBURG 100 75 98 74 / 7 4 8 10
HATTIESBURG 97 73 97 74 / 15 10 8 7
NATCHEZ 97 74 96 74 / 15 12 12 11
GREENVILLE 99 75 99 76 / 5 3 6 7
GREENWOOD 98 74 98 75 / 4 2 6 8
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
26/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.
As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.
Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.
Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.
Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.
Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.
There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.
Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.
Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.
For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.
By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
NO CHANGES IN THE FCST YET. HRRR STILL HAS SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING NW FCST AREA 22Z-23Z PERIOD BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING PER
WATER VAPOR SHOULD KEEP IT A BIT MORE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. PREFER
THE GFS OVER ALL OTHER MODELS THIS MORNING...SINCE GFS KEEPS THE
CAP IN PLACE THE LONGEST FOR MONDAY AND THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE
GIVEN WARM MID LEVELS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM PERHAPS...BUT WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AND ADD THIS THREAT IF NEEDED TODAY WITH NO FORCING TO
SPEAK OF. HEAT INDICES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100
IF DEWPOINTS CAN WARM INTO THE LOW 70S. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT MENTION THIS HAZARD IN THE HWO AND HAVE DAY SHIFT
MONITOR THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL
POPS HERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 OR INTO
THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE FAR
EAST. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100...DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH DEWPOINTS CAN WARM. IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUE...THERE MAY BE A SEVERE MCS THAT WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL ND DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY...50KT LLJ AND FORCING WITH A SFC
LOW/FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT...AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EAST BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUN...A DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BRING
CONVECTION TO EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF IFR NEAR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY STORMS WITH MINIMAL
FORCING...SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
950 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG IN NW OHIO CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE SO HAVE REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH LATER
TODAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL MENTION.
ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL EXPAND MORE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AND THEN SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NON VFR THIS MORNING. ALSO PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KTOL FIRST THING THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS SO HAVE INCREASED MORNING CLOUDS A BIT MAINLY
EAST. ALSO ADDED PATCHY MORNING FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE DISSIPATED SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE GRIDS...HOWEVER TREND
REMAINS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP SO ZONES
WILL STILL REFLECT THAT.
ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL EXPAND MORE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AND THEN SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NON VFR THIS MORNING. ALSO PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KTOL FIRST THING THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
630 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS SO HAVE INCREASED MORNING CLOUDS A BIT MAINLY
EAST. ALSO ADDED PATCHY MORNING FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE DISSIPATED SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE GRIDS...HOWEVER TREND
REMAINS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP SO ZONES
WILL STILL REFLECT THAT.
ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ARE VFR
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...BUT EXPECTING SOME MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR TO
DEVELOP FROM NOW THROUGH MID MORNING. TOL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
IFR WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR
MOST OTHERS EXPECTING AN EARLY MVFR SCT-BKN SKY TO LIFT TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW OR WIDESPREAD AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME NON VFR FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IT TO THE TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY SUNDAY
EVENING. CLEAR SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER
EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALL NIGHT JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY
BORDER. PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF 850 MB LLJ
IS MAINTAINING PRE DAWN SHRA/TSRA EAST OF THE FINGERLAKES REGION
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CATSKILLS. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB JET MAX. FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED EARLY TODAY ACROSS MY AREA...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO TONIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. HRRR
COVERAGE FAVORS AREAS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS BEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SINCE LAST TUESDAY...COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO INITIAL H5 RIDGING.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY... RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS FLATTENS 5H RIDGE AXIS OVER PA BY
00Z MON. MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE PLACE AROUND
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 22Z...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
H5 TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH H5 RIDGING
RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST. THUS POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IN VICINITY OF DEPARTING
UPPER TROF...DECREASING LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUN MAXES. NORTHWEST HALF OF
PA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINS SOUPY WITH TD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S.
DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF
FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO
BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ
VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR AT BFD HAS GIVEN WAY TO MVFR WITH THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES REMAINING VFR. EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST...BEGINNING AROUND
16Z.LATEST HRRR HAS IT SLOWING SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL TAF SITES
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ANY REGIONS THAT RECEIVED ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD SEE RESTRICTING VISBYS AND CIGS BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1004 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TRUCKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR PAH. HRRR INSISTS MCS WILL FALL
APART BEFORE REACHING OUR CWA BUT THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY WITH CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS
WILL HAVE TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY POP UP ON
THE PLATEAU PER HRRR BUT WILL NOT ADD POPS THERE DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...12Z TAF`S FOR BNA/CKV/CSV...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE MORNING WILL
START OFF WITH RADIATION FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LOW STRATUS, BUT
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF THE
DAY AND EVENING, WITH RADIATION FOG ONCE AGAIN DROPPING VSBY`S
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY MORNING IS UPON US IN MIDDLE TN. LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND CALM WINDS IS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
FEW SPOTS MAY TO FALL TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY OR WORSE...BUT WITH
THE PATCHY NATURE...A FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY THIS MORNING. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO LEAVING ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY IS THE MCS THAT IS UPSTREAM OF THE MID-STATE. CURRENTLY OVER
MISSOURI AND ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK...THIS FEATURE COULD BEGIN TO
CLOSE IN ON OUR NW COUNTIES AROUND LUNCHTIME TODAY. AS IS BEING
PORTRAYED IN SOME OF HI-RES GUIDANCE...I`M NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH
IT HOLDING TOGETHER AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ITS CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM GROWTH AS IT NEARS THE STATE. ON TOP OF
THIS...THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS EITHER FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
REASONING. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN NO POPS IN THE MID-
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORY OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY TRIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WHILE I DON`T
LIKE SOME THE GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUGGESTING 96-98 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ITS STRONGEST OVER THE
STATE...A SOLID 93-95 IS LIKELY. WHILE THESE COUPLE OF DEGREES
DON`T SEEM LIKE A BIG DEAL...WHEN COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW 70S EACH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB
TOWARDS TRIPLE DIGITS. IF WE DO END UP SEEING THOSE HIGHER
VALUES...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY. ATTM...A 100-105
HEAT INDEX EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP US JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EITHER WAY...ITS GONNA BE HOT AND STEAMY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW EACH AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...THOUGH THIS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE EACH NIGHT. LOW 70S ON
THE PLATEAU AND MIDDLE 70S WEST OF THE PLATEAU COULD MAKE FOR
UNCOMFORTABLE AIR EACH MORNING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE MID-90S TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT
AND IF YOU CAN BELIEVE IT...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD PUSH INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND SUPPRESSED
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
DIFFUSE AT BEST WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN CANADA...SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD REAR THEIR HEADS THURSDAY. MORE ON THIS AS WE APPROACH
MID-WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...THURSDAY`S FRONT WILL BE A MEMORY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID-STATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RELAX AND BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND.
UNGER
AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
MID AND DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. WITH DESCENDING AIR IN PLACE
BEING THE RULE...THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. IN
FACT...THE ONLY AREA OF EMPHASIS WITH THE TAFS WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMATION TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 91 72 92 74 / 30 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 86 69 87 70 / 10 10 30 20
COLUMBIA 94 72 95 74 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 94 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 92 72 93 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED TWO BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION... WITH THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR GALVESTON ESE TOWARDS
PLATFORM KGHB /ABOUT 160 MILES SE OF CAMERON...LA/. THE SECOND WAS
LOCATED STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA
COAST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FIRST BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THE SECOND BOUNDARY... PER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
APPEARS TO BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
45. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT /LAKE CHARLES REPORTING 2.3
INCH PWAT AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWING THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS
PUSHING SOUTHWEST/ AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 95 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN LOW SHEAR BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER... CREATING AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT MAINLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOP OUT IN THE 101 TO 107 RANGE AND HAVE REISSUED AREA-WIDE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING THIS HAZARD. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AIR MOVING WWD
FROM LOUISIANA AND OFFSHORE TOWARD SE TX. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED W/ SOME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...MAKING IT INTO CNTL LA YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAD A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS YDAY...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE TODAY ESP IN
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL
STILL NEED TO OVERCOME QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BUT FELT LIKE
ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FCST IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. HRRR &
TX TECH WRF BOTH SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT & MUGGY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS
OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE
INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE
OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ISOLATED THRU THURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES...DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES BACK
IN...AND POSSIBLY A DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR SEABREEZE PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR HOPEFULLY BETTER AREAL PRECIP CHANCES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN
A WHILE. ADVERTISED POPS IN OUR FCST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD COULD BE
TOO LOW...BUT PREFER TO NUDGE THEM UP W/ TIME AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES - VERSUS THE OPPOSITE. 47
MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NO CAUTION FLAGS
ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SE
TX LATE IN THE WEEK (THURS/FRI) BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER ITS PROXIMITY WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A MORE W/SWLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 41
AVIATION...
STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE GENERAL FCSTS OF VFR FOR THE DAYTIME
HRS. VERY ISO PCPN ALONG THE SEABREEZE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN...BUT
THE BETTER CHCS NOT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE APPRO-
ACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS (09-12Z) WILL ALSO PERSIST. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 98 77 98 / 20 20 20 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 82 92 82 92 / 20 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN STRATIFORM RAIN PORTION. THE STORMS
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. LATEST HRRR HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THIS COMPLEX AND MOVES
IT SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. HRRR BRINGS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY
BE REASONABLE CONSIDERING SHOWERS CURRENTLY STRETCH AS FAR NORTH
AS EAU CLAIRE. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND LOW POPS FARTHER NORTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS HOW MUCH THIS CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS HANG ON MUCH OF THE
DAY...HIGHS WILL END UP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE CLEARING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THOUGH...SO
WILL JUST MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW AND NOT CHANGE TEMPS QUITE YET.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AS A WEAKENING MCS SLIDES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN THE WEST DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG BOUNDARY OF
DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
LOOKS AS IF THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SW CWA COULD BE
CLIPPED BY THE FAR NORTHERN END OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING AND KEEP
THEM GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWN ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DBQ. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MORNING SYSTEM
COULD LIMIT HEATING AND DEGREE OF RESULTANT INSTABILITY SO KEPT
AFTERNOON POPS IN SLIGHT CATEGORY.
925 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...THOUGH SE WINDS WILL KEEP
EASTERN AREAS COOLER...AND DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT EARLY SUNSHINE
IN THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH THE
NORTHWEST STILL HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR UPPER 80S WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING TO THE EAST. MODELS INDICATING AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE SW
OF FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK SLIDING IT BY TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS NRN IL ALONG 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT. EVEN THE GFS WITH
THE MOST EXPANSIVE QPF FIELD KEEPS BEST FORCING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW BUT POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IF MORE NWD
SOLUTION ON CANADIAN AND GFS QPF FIELDS PAN OUT.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOUTH WINDS OVER THE AREA. STEADY WARM
AIR ADVECTION OCCURS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAIN
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS ON MONDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A
LITTLE VARIATION IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH QPF OVER THE AREA ON ALL MODELS.
NAM/GFS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH ARE A BIT OVERDONE WITH DEW POINTS. WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SEEN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GETTING NEAR 2.00 INCHES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW...DESPITE QPF SHOWING UP ON GFS/ECMWF. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH WARM 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S MONDAY...AND MID 90S TO AROUND 100 TUESDAY. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING...THEN
DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSITION TO SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT LESS HUMID
AIRMASS IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FOR NOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXCEPT FOR FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND PATCHES OF FOG
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. DYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY CLIP THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST
AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COMPLEX SKIMMING THE IL BORDER AREAS. AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THE DECAYING COMPLEX WILL IMPACT OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IN
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LEADS TO A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS FORECAST AREA DRY TONIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
342 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS ACTIVITY SENDING SOME ENHANCED
DRAINAGE/OUTFLOW WINDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN IN
FORCE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS A DRY FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL BELOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DRY FRONT WORKS IN...SENDING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE FOCUS
OVER AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WHERE THE NAM12 AND RAP HOLDING ON TO DEEPER MOISTURE A
BIT LONGER. SFC MOISTURE ALSO DEPARTS WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS WILL
BE UP SLIGHTLY IN MANY AREAS...WITH MOS NUMBERS IN THE BALLPARK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
ENERGETIC NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL BE LIFTING ENE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA TUESDAY...DRIVING THE ABOVE MENTIONED DRY FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THE RIDGE STARTS REBUILDING TO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH...BUT CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO FILL BACK
INTO OUR REGION. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RECENTERS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
WORK BACK INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SENDING THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH BACK IN. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ON THE NEAR NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG- KRIL-KGJT-KCEZ THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOME ISOLATED AND
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF G30-40KTS WITH AREAS OF MODERATE
TURBULENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEX MAY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING
-SHRA/-TSRA. ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP 09Z-15Z
WITH WINDS AT 10000-14000 FT MSL AT INCREASING TO SW 40KTS AFT
12Z. THESE GUSTY SW WINDS WILL MIX INTO TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z
MONDAY. ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. WITH FUELS AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST
INPUT FROM PARTNERS...EXPECTED HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE UPGRADING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200 AND 202 IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
COLORADO. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING CRITERIA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ZONE 202 WAS ADDED LATE WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS AT A FEW SITES. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF DEEP MIXING
STILL TO GO...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200>203.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JOE
FIRE WEATHER...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS ACTIVITY SENDING SOME ENHANCED
DRAINAGE/OUTFLOW WINDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN IN
FORCE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS A DRY FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL BELOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DRY FRONT WORKS IN...SENDING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE FOCUS
OVER AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WHERE THE NAM12 AND RAP HOLDING ON TO DEEPER MOISTURE A
BIT LONGER. SFC MOISTURE ALSO DEPARTS WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS WILL
BE UP SLIGHTLY IN MANY AREAS...WITH MOS NUMBERS IN THE BALLPARK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
ENERGETIC NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL BE LIFTING ENE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA TUESDAY...DRIVING THE ABOVE MENTIONED DRY FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THE RIDGE STARTS REBUILDING TO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH...BUT CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO FILL BACK
INTO OUR REGION. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RECENTERS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
WORK BACK INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SENDING THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH BACK IN. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ON THE NEAR NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG-
KRIL-KGJT-KCEZ FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
+SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF
G30-40KTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...CIGS MAY DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA.
NORTHWEST COLORADO...LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 25KTS IS EXPECTED FROM
19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. WITH FUELS AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST
INPUT FROM PARTNERS...EXPECTED HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE UPGRADING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200 AND 202 IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
COLORADO. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING CRITERIA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ZONE 202 WAS ADDED LATE WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS AT A FEW SITES. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF DEEP MIXING
STILL TO GO...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200 AND COZ202.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
...INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MONSOONAL PLUME EXTENDING THOUGH NRN NM
AND INTO SE CO THIS MORNING. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER
SRN NM AND AZ...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER OUR AREA
LATER TODAY. ALSO...LEAD IMPULSE FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL
INCREASE FORCING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. WILL SEE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR WX
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...MAINLY FOR HAIL AND WINDS. LATEST HRRR HAS
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN MTS BY LATE
MORNING...MOVING EAST TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 20-21Z...THEN INTO
KS BY EARLY EVE. OTHER MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT THE
COMMON THEME IS INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS BY EARLY
EVENING. H7 TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...SO POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NR 100 IS THERE...BUT EARLIER TIMING
OF CONVECTION MAY PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE STORMS ON THE WANE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TO THE KS BORDER BY LATE EVENING...WHILE RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE WRN ZONES. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND/OR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE
60S OVR THE PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MONDAY...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS DAY. SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH G30 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION. WE MAY START APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN
SOME LOCATIONS ON THIS DAY. EXPECT HI TEMPS THIS DAY WILL RANGE IN
THE U90S/L100S PLAINS...80S VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL COOL THE TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT
IT WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST POPS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NITE. THIS 2ND DISTURBANCE WILL DRIVE A
STRONGER FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TUE NITE.
WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY THIS DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
AOA 80F PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S MTNS AND ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. THE DAY WILL LIKELY START OFF CLOUDY AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
OVERALL DRY WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY THIS PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER...OR JUST TO THE WEST OF...THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION IN WEAK WNW TO NW FLOW AT
MID LVLS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY ALLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL START DRYING OUT AS THE MONSOON
TAP WILL BE BLOCKED BY THIS MID LVL FLOW PATTERN. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEAR THAT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM APPROXIMATELY 19Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY.
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL IN COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
NOTED GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR TO THE KANSAS
BORDER. FINALLY...DUE TO EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOME LOW
CEILINGS MAY BE NOTED AT BOTH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE 03Z TO 13Z TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY ALITTLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.
IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION
OVER THE LENGTH OF CANADA. A DEEP TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANCHORED BY CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE FLOW THEN RIDGES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH AROUND A CLOSED LOW
FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE IS EXTENDING
NORTH FROM LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN
FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN A NORTH/NE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CIRCULATION. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
DEFINED...AND WE FIND A WEAK/POORLY DEFINED DISTURBANCE/VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SPINNING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST/EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...HOWEVER THE DRIEST AIR IS STAYING NORTH/NW
OF OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...GENERALLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PENINSULA. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING APPEARED TO BE
ON THE EDGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH A MOIST
PROFILE THROUGH ABOUT 400MB...AND A PW VALUE OF 2.15". THIS VALUE
IS UP AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF PWATS FOR LATE JULY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE MOIST PROFILE COMES WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES THROUGH THE LOWER/MID TROP. ONE OF THE PARAMETERS WE GIVE A
QUICK LOOK AT WHEN INITIALLY ANALYZING A SOUNDING PROFILE DURING
THE SUMMER FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THE 500MB TEMPS. THE 500MB
TEMP THIS MORNING IS MEASURED AT -4.5C. THIS IS VERY WARM...EVEN
FOR MID SUMMER AND REPRESENT A VALUE OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
JULY. THIS SOUNDING IS ONE INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS...BUT OF LOW SEVERE THREAT. THE WEAK
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAKER UPDRAFT...KEEP HAIL
AND PRECIP LOADING AT A MINIMUM...AND IN FACT...OVERALL LIGHTING
COUNTS SHOULD BE LOW THE REST OF TODAY AS WELL DUE TO THE HIGHER
ALTITUDE OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS.
AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE A VERY WEAK SURFACE NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE SPIN SEEN WITH THE RADAR RETURN
IS MORE LIKELY A COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE
SOLUTION YOU USE...THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW MAY DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...BUT AN ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TO THE NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...OR BE PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT (AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
WILL BE ALONG THE SUNCOAST COUNTIES WITH THE CONVERGENT ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT...AND WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILE.
FOR MONDAY...SURFACE LOW DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL
BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS OCCURS THE MORE FAVORABLE ONSHORE COMPONENT
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT OR EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE
END RESULT IS ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS WHERE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONGEAL OFF THE GULF.
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN TODAY AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FROM PASCO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO LEE COUNTY INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
LACK OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AND LESS CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL ZONES WILL
ALLOW US TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR POLK...HARDEE...AND DESOTO
COUNTIES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY WILL NOT GET INTO A
DEFINED ONSHORE FLOW IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EVENTUAL LATE DAY
LOW POSITION...HOWEVER THE COLUMN WILL STILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LEADING TO SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND
SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN STATES.
THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND A STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH HANGING AROUND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...A DEVELOPING CUTOFF
LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND
LIFT NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FROM ABOUT TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL SEE A BIT
MORE VARIABLE (AND HARDER TO PREDICT) LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO HANG
AROUND...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO PEAK
IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE EACH DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ADDING MORE RAINFALL TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVER BASINS AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE ALL THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VIS WILL IMPACT EACH TERMINAL AS THE STORM ROLL PAST. DEEPER
INTO THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT OF ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW WHERE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE OFF
THE GULF.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD TOWARD APALACHEE BAY DURING
MONDAY. WINDS AROUND THIS CIRCULATION WILL GENERALLY GIVE AN
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. DURING MONDAY...THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OUR FORECAST WATERS BY THE END OF THE DAY. A
GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES
WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO
LEE COUNTY UNTIL 8 AM ON MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN IN MANY AREAS FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN AREAS TO DEVELOP TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS STREAMING IN FROM
THE GULF OVER LEE COUNTY...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
22Z TODAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST PASCO COUNTY HAS CAUSED THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS TO RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER CRESTED
THIS AFTERNOON AT 23.5 FEET AND IS CURRENTLY DROPPING. THIS RIVER
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE OF ANY MORE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA
OR UPSTREAM FOR RUNOFF. IF RAINFALL HOLDS OFF IN THE AREA...THE
RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTH...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK HAS REACHED
ACTION STAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME. THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA IS EXPECTED TO GO
ABOVE ACTION STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AS WITH ALL RIVERS DURING THE RAINY
SEASON...WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS CAUSING ANY FURTHER RISE IN THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 88 78 87 / 50 70 40 60
FMY 77 88 78 90 / 70 80 30 60
GIF 75 88 76 89 / 50 70 30 50
SRQ 77 86 78 88 / 70 80 40 60
BKV 75 89 75 89 / 50 70 30 60
SPG 78 87 78 88 / 50 70 50 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING
HYDROLOGY...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1033 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS. HI RES GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TRYING
TO SHOW CONVECTION BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER RADAR STILL REMAINS
QUIET. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY
NOON THOUGH. HRRR IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LOCAL WRF. FORECAST POPS MAY NOT BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH BUT SINCE THE HI RES MODELS ARE A LITTLE OFF WITH
INITIATION TIMING...AM HOLDING OFF ON MAKING CHANGES TO POPS FOR
NOW. ONCE WE CAN GET MORE OF A TREND THEN WILL RE-EVALUATE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUSTMENT POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS EACH DAY WHERE SOME OROGRAPHIC HELP
WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEAT
INDICES THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
20
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
LONG TERM MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH BUILD THE H5 HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE HIGH WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE WEST ALLOWING A
TROUGH TO START DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE UNDER THE HIGH THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THEN COOL SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
ALREADY HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WHILE
IN GENERAL...THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE ATL SITES CLOSELY AS A TSRA COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA.
WINDS HAVE STILL BE SOMEWHAT VRB THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD FAVOR
THE EAST SIDE AT ATL MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME VRB
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 92 71 94 73 / 20 5 20 20
ATLANTA 92 73 92 77 / 20 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 88 66 / 30 20 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 93 74 96 77 / 10 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 90 73 92 74 / 20 10 20 20
MACON 93 70 96 72 / 10 5 5 5
ROME 92 72 94 72 / 20 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 92 70 93 71 / 10 5 10 10
VIDALIA 93 73 94 74 / 10 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MORNING MCS HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 19Z/2PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NO LINGERING
PRECIP. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EASTERN
IOWA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITHIN A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2500J/KG. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING STORMS
FIRING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY CREATED BY THE MORNING MCS.
GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM
THIS SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-74 AND EAST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. AFTER THAT...THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER
ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAPID
REFRESH MODELS SAY NO...HOWEVER THE NAM KEEPS AT LEAST SCATTERED
PRECIP GOING. THE MAIN 850MB JET WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SUPPORT
FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS IN ILLINOIS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...NAM DOES
SHOW A WEAK 20-25KT BRANCH OF THE LLJ NOSING INTO THE AREA. WITH
THIS WEAK INFLOW COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IN
OR CLOSE TO THE CWA...BELIEVE A SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL ONLY BE SEEN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WORDING...BUT WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TUE.
ONCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER WITH APPROACH OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE GOTTEN LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS
FRONT AND IT NOW ARRIVES EARLY ON WED IN THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT WED AND THEN QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA LATE
WED AFTERNOON...SO WED NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH WED WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE MON AND WED...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
THIS HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH DWPTS IN THE 70S...UPPER 70S ON
TUESDAY...TO CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 90S TO 105 FOR MON AND
WED...AND 105-110 FOR TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...105...WILL
BE CLOSE TOMORROW BUT ONLY IN EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. SO LEANING
AWAY FROM ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. CRITERIA IS MET ON TUE AND THEN
MAYBE IN THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA FOR WED. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN
GET ANOTHER LOOK FOR TOMORROW BECAUSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN COULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
ONCE THE MID WEEK FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER DWPTS TO
THE AREA. THIS RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 17Z/12 PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ONLY
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT
BOTH KPIA AND KSPI BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z...BUT THINK THE PRECIP WILL
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE PUSHING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM AS
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS AT THE I-74
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z-03Z. ONCE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DISSIPATES...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUED LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...MAY
SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISBYS IN
THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING. WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.
BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
INITIAL CONCERN IS PEAK HEATING CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY RADIATION
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WATCHING AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR
KMCW/KALO THAT MAY DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE WOULD IMPACT A
PARTICULAR SITE IS LOW HOWEVER SO ALL SITES VFR INTO THE EVENING.
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME
AREAS...LOW LEVEL RH WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING TO FOG POTENTIAL
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KMCW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS
STILL ONLY 5F AT 18Z. HAVE MENTIONED VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR IN
THESE AREAS...ROUGHLY 09-15Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
EARLIER OR EVEN DOWN TO LIFR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015
Given a weak cool front dropping in from the north, an outflow
boundary from old convection coming in from the west, and a weak
upper shortwave trof sliding across Illinois and Indiana, will need
to retain small PoPs in the forecast this evening. HRRR has been
doing fairly well with the convection thus far today and supports
small PoPs as well. Convection chances will decrease during the
overnight hours, with another muggy, still night in store. Guidance
has been too warm with both highs and lows lately, so took lows to
around 70 tonight. If we retain more cloud cover than currently
expected, though, that forecast may indeed be too cool.
On Monday what little is left of tonight`s cool front may still be
lingering around the area, and outflow boundaries from overnight
convection to our northwest may be present as well. Precipitable
water values will pool around two inches and the low levels will
become unstable enough to support convection. Mid-level lapse rates,
though, will be quite weak and 7H temps will be warm. With the
absence of a strong trigger and with the upper ridge building in,
will keep PoPs low. High temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Any convection tomorrow will be diurnal and should dissipate with
the setting of the sun, so will go dry for Monday night with warm,
muggy conditions once again.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015
Tuesday - Thursday...
For mid week, we`ll be on the edge of an upper level ridge with a
weak cold front progged to push southeast through the region late
Wed/Wed night. Ahead of the front, scattered storms will be
possible on Tues and Wed. Generally wind profiles look pretty weak
although ample instability exists both days. For Tues, some mid
level capping may help inhibit storm strength and coverage. Storms
that do get going should be mainly heavy rainers with precipitable
water amounts (PWATs) around or just over 2 inches and slow storm
motions. Wed there will be slightly stronger winds and faster storm
motions with high PWATs, so hopefully any heavy rainers will have
some motion to them. Thursday some lingering showers and storms may
occur early in the day over south central KY close to the front.
Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs
Tues-Thurs with the hottest day being Wed ahead of the front.
Friday - Sunday...
A dry end to the week looks likely behind the fropa with humidity
values dropping as well. Highs will fall back into the mid 80s to
around 90.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 109 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015
SDF stands the best chance at receiving TSRA this afternoon/evening
as a weak cool front drops down from the north and an outflow
boundary coming in from the west sparks scattered convection. A few
TSRA could affect BWG as well from that outflow boundary as it sinks
to the southeast. Will keep LEX dry for now.
Tonight should be quiet with scattered clouds and nearly calm winds
once again. Could see some BR around dawn, especially at BWG, but
more cloud cover tonight than the past couple of nights may help it
from becoming dense.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DINMINSHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.
OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUT MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK
IN 1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY
JUST TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDENT 850MB THETA-E
AXIS HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETORGRADE W BACK OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.
THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 73 99 73 98 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 76 101 76 100 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 77 100 / 20 10 10 10
LFK 75 99 74 98 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
137-138-150>153-165>167.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102 78 100 78 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 98 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 99 74 99 74 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 100 77 100 77 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 99 76 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 99 78 99 78 / 10 0 10 10
GGG 101 78 100 78 / 20 0 10 10
LFK 98 75 98 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
151.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ISLD THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND
WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS
LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH
PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10
SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.
KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. WE HAVE A REMNANT
H7 LOW FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THAT IS NOW STUCK BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE. THIS HAS KEPT MID CLOUDS GOING ALONG THE MN/WI
BORDER AND RAP/NAM SHOW THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
MN/WI WHERE...WHERE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IS NOW UNLIKELY. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT...LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF ISO
THUNDER AROUND SE MN. RAP SHOWS A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL CAMS ALSO SHOW SOME ISO ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING HERE AS WELL...SO FELT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME
JUSTIFICATION FOR LEAVING POPS IN DOWN THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF SAID ACTIVITY...HI-RES MODELS SHOW
700 MB TEMPS/HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...WITH AN H7
TEMP CIRCA +11C OR GREATER DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF CAMS
MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION. WHILE THERE IS
NOT ANY SORT OF WELL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM TO SPARK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OTHER THAN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAINT MIDLEVEL ENERGY
OVERHEAD...FEEL A 20 POP IS WARRANTED.
ANY CONVECTION WOULD COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET...WITH A MUGGY
SUMMER NIGHT AHEAD...AS LOW TEMPS HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BELOW THAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS HOT/HUMID AND UNSETTLED
AT THE BEGINNING...THEN TURNING COOLER AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONDS VERY
WARM AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE URBAN AREA OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA WOULD GET A HEAT ADVISORY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BASED ON THESE CONDS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER MORE
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FULL SUNSHINE AND LOWER AFTN HIGHS.
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW MONDAY TO WARRANT ISOLD TSRA IN EC MN/WC WI...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARND 7.0 TO 7.5C.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WX AND THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX WILL BEGIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG THE INCREASING LLJ
SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHOULD WARRANT
THIS SIGNIFICANT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR MPX CWA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SVR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SPC IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING
OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX. A BETTER CHC OF
SVR WX IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PROBLEM
WITH TUESDAY IS A VERY STRONG CAP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
70H TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 14C. IT MAYBE LATE IN THE EVENING BEFORE
THIS CAP BEGINS TO BREAK WHICH LEADS TO MORE SVR WX SE OF MPX CWA.
THE MAIN PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO MN UNTIL AFT TUESDAY EVENING. SO...THE STRONG CAP COULD
PRECLUDE AN ACTIVE TUESDAY EVENING IN MN...AND THE MAIN FOCUS IN
WI/IA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONCE THE CAP BREAKS.
PAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES...BRING DRIER WX AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.
KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WE INCREASED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH. WE EXTENDED THE
CHANCE INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MOVING A BIT NORTH BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND IF AND
WHEN TO INTRODUCE POPS.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE SCOOTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WERE FROM MILLE LACS LAKE TO JUST SOUTH OF SIREN AS OF
08Z. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AS WELL BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GO DRY THIS MORNING IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL BURN
OFF BETWEEN 8 AM AND 9 AM.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TODAY ON NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TODAY WHICH
WOULD DISCOURAGE NEW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
CAMS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR FAR NORTH AND WE ALREADY
HAD A CHANCE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THERE. IT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOST OF THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT DESPITE
SOME WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME FOG IN
SPOTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE.
WE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO
FOCUS CONVECTION...BUT THINK THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE MAY SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. WINDS WILL TURN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS FIRE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
HOT...HUMID...AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISE INTO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...DEFINITELY THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AT LOW LEVELS...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
PREVENT MUCH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT
/INCREASING TO ABOUT 40KTS/ WILL SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAY
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN WITH PWAT VALUES
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMO...BUT 20-
30KT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD RISK. BEST TIMING
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE
35 SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMEST OF THE
SUMMER...APPROACHING 90 ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER DOWN AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN PINE AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND WITH DEW
POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100.
WED/THURS/FRI...COOLER AND DRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS. HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 80S THURS/FRI.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.
SAT...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT MODEL VARIABILITY TOO
LARGE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES RESOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING AT ALL
SITES. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WMFNT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR INL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE IN NORTHEAST MN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM DLH.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT ALLOWING AMPLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD IFR
VSBYS AT HIB/BRD/HYR WITH MVFR AT DLH/INL. VSBYS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT MOST FAVORABLE AFTER 27.18Z SO WILL
LEAVE THOSE ADDITIONS FOR THE EVENING SHIFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 20 40
INL 86 64 87 68 / 20 10 10 40
BRD 86 65 86 69 / 20 10 20 70
HYR 85 63 85 68 / 10 10 20 40
ASX 87 63 87 66 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
531 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED THUNDWERSTORMS FORMING PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO.
SHORT TERM MODELS WERE DEVELOPING THIS, ALTHOUTH COVERAGE IS MUCH
LESS THEN THEY INDICATE. WEAK BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE. WEAK LIFT ALONG THE 305/310 FURFACE MAY GET
A FEW STORMS GOING EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THE LIFT STARTS TO GO
AWAY AFTER 06Z SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SE NEBRASKA MONDAY DEPRESSING
THE RIDGE A BIT WILL HELP FIRE STORMS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INITIATION
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. JUST A MATTER IF ANYTHING
MOVES FAR ENOUGH SE INTO THE AREA. THAT IS LIKE THROWING DARTS SO
A DRY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR NOW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING SO
WILL LIKELY CARRY A VCTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOKS LIKE STL
WILL BE FAR ENOUGTH SOUTH AND EAST OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MONDAY, AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT, SO WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND KEEP FINGERS CROSSED.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.
Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.
There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.
Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.
Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.
For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.
By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
077-088-093.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.
As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.
Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.
Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.
Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Weak outflow boundary over west central MO should wash out this
afternoon so looking at a dry forecast with VFR conditions.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM AND HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER LATEST HRRR RUN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS CLOSE TO THE NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER IN VICINITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL END ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL AGAIN KEEP MILD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH PRINTING
OUT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM INSIST ON IT BEING DRY.
CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE GFS SOUNDINGS...IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND THE MODEL IS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THAT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPPING AND WITH NO FORCING THINK THAT A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY
TO GO. THE DRYNESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND WARM TEMPERATURES AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
18C WHICH WOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY AND QUIET REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF ITS PARENT 595 DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. CONSEQUENTLY...OUR
REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS LEADING TO A RETURN
OF MIDSUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
UNDER THIS REGIME...850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN +17C AND
+18C TUESDAY AND TO THE +19C TO +20C RANGE WEDNESDAY. TRANSLATING
THESE TO THE SURFACE...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 85-90
RANGE TUESDAY AND TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY. ON
BOTH DAYS...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHILE THE HOTTEST
TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN PUSH THE MID 90S
ON WEDNESDAY IF THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER GFS GUIDANCE VERIFIES. AT THE
SAME TIME... SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S TUESDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEND AN INCREASINGLY MUGGY FEEL TO OUR
AIRMASS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN VERY LOW
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE A STRAY POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE HEAT OF EACH
DAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS THAT GENERAL LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER SHOULD GENERALLY
KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALL OF THIS WILL THEN CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHILE SWINGING ITS
ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS AS IT PUSHES EAST...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ITS
PASSAGE. THIS STATED...ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GREATLY LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE DUE TO
THE UNFAVORABLE NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME...UNIMPRESSIVE
SHEAR PROFILES...AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS IN TIME FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THINGS MORE SPECIFICALLY...AFTER A
SULTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
FALL MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL PULL BACK A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...BEFORE
FALLING OFF TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE DRY/QUIET AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS LOOKING TO RANGE BETWEEN +12C AND +14C PER A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE RIGHT AROUND THE 80
DEGREE MARK.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST... WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THIS FLOW AND TRAVERSING OUR REGION IN THE PROCESS. WITH
SOME MOISTURE ALSO RETURNING INTO OUR AREA OUT AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
BE ON A SLOW BUT GENERAL INCREASE OVER TIME...WITH A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY PERHAPS GIVING WAY TO
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SUCH BY SUNDAY AS A SOMEWHAT MORE
PRONOUNCED IMPULSE WORKS INTO THE REGION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY RISING INTO THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE BY SUNDAY...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH INCLUDED IN THE KJHW TAF
BUT ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES. LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES KEEPING VFR EXCEPT AT KJHW WHERE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF
CANADA. TEMPS OVERALL LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN
WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG EARLY MONDAY...BUT SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
257 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN WEST OF A MINOT TO
DICKINSON LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TOME TO
INCLUDE TSRA IN TAFS. WILL KEEP VCNTY FROM KDIK-KISN-KMOT. THEN A
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD NORTHWEST. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN
AFTER 12Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
DISCUSSED WITH WFO BIS... HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUNS AND HRRR
OPERATIONAL RUNS BOTH THAVE SOME SFC BASED CONVECTION IN NW ND
SPREADING EAST INTO FAR NW FCST AREA IN THAT 23Z-03Z PERIOD AND
AFTER SEEING IT FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL ADD IN A LOW POPS FOR THAT
AREA LANGDON-CANDO-LEEDS. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND VERY WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. PREFER
THE GFS OVER ALL OTHER MODELS THIS MORNING...SINCE GFS KEEPS THE
CAP IN PLACE THE LONGEST FOR MONDAY AND THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE
GIVEN WARM MID LEVELS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM PERHAPS...BUT WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AND ADD THIS THREAT IF NEEDED TODAY WITH NO FORCING TO
SPEAK OF. HEAT INDICES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100
IF DEWPOINTS CAN WARM INTO THE LOW 70S. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT MENTION THIS HAZARD IN THE HWO AND HAVE DAY SHIFT
MONITOR THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL
POPS HERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 OR INTO
THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE FAR
EAST. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100...DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH DEWPOINTS CAN WARM. IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUE...THERE MAY BE A SEVERE MCS THAT WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL ND DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY...50KT LLJ AND FORCING WITH A SFC
LOW/FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT...AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EAST BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUN...A DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BRING
CONVECTION TO EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN
WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG EARLY MONDAY...BUT SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE BIS-JMS SO
USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON SHORE ACROSS
WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE COLD FRONT IT
WILL BECOME ONLY MAKE IT TO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH CENTRAL
AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING BUT WILL SLOW AS THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT LOOK
REASONABLE TODAY. SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (BIS-JMS) HAVE A MID LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE WEST
TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF
MINOT MIXING LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND SO UPPED THE
WINDS VICINITY OF MINOT TO 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NO
FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. UPSTREAM...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES SEEN
OVER WESTERN MONTANA MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. REGIONAL RADAR
WAS INDICATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WAS ALONG A SURFACE A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM...THEN MAKE SOME HEADWAY THROUGH WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 AND 4KM
NAM CONUSNEST REFLECTIVITY`S ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GENERATING A
NARROW LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO MAKE IT ALONG A LINE FROM MINOT TO
GARRISON AND INTO HEBRON AND HETTINGER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT STALLS SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
INITIATES OVER EASTERN MONTANA ALONG WITH INCREASING 925MB-850MB
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. BEST CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER NORTHWEST
AND FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WHERE ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK TODAY/TONIGHT...THUS STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN MESSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LATER TONIGHT. A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING/SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HOTTER
TODAY AND A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AS H85 TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
ISSUE 1...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE ENTIRE NWS BISMARCK FORECAST
AREA...MONDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT.
ISSUE 2...BREEZY TO WINDY MONDAY...THEN WINDY EAST TO VERY WINDY
WEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED
TO BE POSTED FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY...WEST.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH...DIGGING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST TODAY...
BRINGS SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA FOR MONDAY WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THAT FLOW. THEY MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LONG WAVE PUSHES
EAST. WITH THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL BE
DRY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH STORM CHANCES THERE NOT INCREASING
UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
THIS...AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTS 70+ DEW POINT AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...
INCREASING INSTABILITY...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...SEVERE WEATHER RESULTS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WEST...AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT AND A TIGHT GRADIENT
RESULTS IN WHAT SHOULD BE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. ALONG WITH
THIS IS A NEARLY 25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM MONDAY HIGHS TO
TUESDAY HIGHS OVER THE WILLISTON AREA.
DRY FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN WEST OF A MINOT TO
DICKINSON LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TOME TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN TAFS. WILL KEEP VCNTY FROM KDIK-KISN-KMOT. THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD NORTHWEST. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN
AFTER 12Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
149 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG IN NW OHIO CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE SO HAVE REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH LATER
TODAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL MENTION.
ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MOST LIKELY SITES TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAK/YNG
THROUGH 21Z WITH A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS EXTENDING WEST TO
MFD. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY FROM THE NORTH WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LIGHT AND VARIALBE OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD RETURN
OVERNIGHT AT CAK/YNG IN BR.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
306 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS FROM AN MCS THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN. THE CONVECTION DID PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO JUST SOUTH OF
JACKSON TENNESSEE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. AS
EXPECTED...THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION HAS PREVENTED HEAT
INDICES FROM REACHING ADVISORY OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN MANY
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS WALNUT RIDGE AND BLYTHEVILLE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION. AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINS OUT IT MAY LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES REACHING BACK ABOVE CRITERIA AROUND 5 OR 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER. WILL LEAVE
HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AS IS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT PRIMARILY CONDITIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE.
SFC WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY THUS EXPECT MORE
OF THE CWA MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY AND BY TUESDAY THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH WILL LIKELY BE COVERED BY A HEAT ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND THUS EXPECT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MONITORING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE MIDSOUTH WHICH COULD IMPACT KMKL AND KJBR...ADDED A VCTS
AT THOSE LOCATIONS FROM 26/19Z-26/21Z. WILL NEED TO WATCH KMEM AS
WELL THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING VCTS THERE FOR NOW. HRRR HAS
ANOTHER COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER MO THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AS WELL. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MORNING FOG
AT JACKSON AND TUPELO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
RANDOLPH.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-
MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-YALOBUSHA.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
UPDATE...
REMNANTS FROM AN MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER MISSOURI OVERNIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES A MILLINGTON TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE. WILL
UPDATE POPS/SKY CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY.
THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION COULD ALSO WREAK HAVOC WITH THE HEAT
ADVISORY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND LAKE/DYER COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE BUT WILL LEAVE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF SOME
CLEARING OCCURS BRINGING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY...AND GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WATCHING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL
MO THIS MORNING THAT MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST TN.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S EXCEPT SOME LOWER 80S IN NORTHEAST AR. VERY MOIST
AIR CONTINUED ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. JONESBORO HAD AN
IMPRESSIVE DEW POINT OF 80 DEGREES EARLIER TONIGHT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE THE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF WEST TN TODAY. THE MCS OVER CENTRAL MO
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES GENERATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
INCREASED THE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY FOR
TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTEND OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY...MAINLY TO TRIM THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING BACK A LITTLE SINCE LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE
MANAGED TO SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD THAN EARLIER EXPECTED
INCLUDING INTO MEMPHIS. KEPT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING GOING FOR
JONESBORO...WILL BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE HOT AND PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
TAKEN. HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 110 AND 112 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AREA...BETWEEN 105 AND 109
DEGREES IN THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA.
EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND AND
EXPAND THE HEAT WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...KEPT IN MENTION OF A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTH MS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MONITORING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE MIDSOUTH WHICH COULD IMPACT KMKL AND KJBR...ADDED A VCTS
AT THOSE LOCATIONS FROM 26/19Z-26/21Z. WILL NEED TO WATCH KMEM AS
WELL THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING VCTS THERE FOR NOW. HRRR HAS
ANOTHER COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER MO THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AS WELL. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MORNING FOG
AT JACKSON AND TUPELO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
RANDOLPH.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-
MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-YALOBUSHA.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
18Z TAFS...FIRST CONCERN IS POSSIBLE TSRA AT CKV WITH STORMS
MOVING OUT OF WEST KY. A TEMPO WILL BE INCLUDED FOR CKV TO COVER
THIS ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH 21Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE THE TSRA WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH BNA.
OTHER ISOLD TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MID TN...BUT ALSO LOW
CONFIDENCE THESE WILL IMPACT TERMINALS...SO NO TSRA WILL BE
MENTIONED FOR BNA OR CSV FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF BR WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS
2SM.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TRUCKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR PAH. HRRR INSISTS MCS WILL FALL
APART BEFORE REACHING OUR CWA BUT THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY WITH CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS
WILL HAVE TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY POP UP ON
THE PLATEAU PER HRRR BUT WILL NOT ADD POPS THERE DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY MORNING IS UPON US IN MIDDLE TN. LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND CALM WINDS IS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
FEW SPOTS MAY TO FALL TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY OR WORSE...BUT WITH
THE PATCHY NATURE...A FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY THIS MORNING. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO LEAVING ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY IS THE MCS THAT IS UPSTREAM OF THE MID-STATE. CURRENTLY OVER
MISSOURI AND ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK...THIS FEATURE COULD BEGIN TO
CLOSE IN ON OUR NW COUNTIES AROUND LUNCHTIME TODAY. AS IS BEING
PORTRAYED IN SOME OF HI-RES GUIDANCE...I`M NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH
IT HOLDING TOGETHER AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ITS CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM GROWTH AS IT NEARS THE STATE. ON TOP OF
THIS...THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS EITHER FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
REASONING. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN NO POPS IN THE MID-
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORY OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY TRIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WHILE I DON`T
LIKE SOME THE GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUGGESTING 96-98 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ITS STRONGEST OVER THE
STATE...A SOLID 93-95 IS LIKELY. WHILE THESE COUPLE OF DEGREES
DON`T SEEM LIKE A BIG DEAL...WHEN COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW 70S EACH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB
TOWARDS TRIPLE DIGITS. IF WE DO END UP SEEING THOSE HIGHER
VALUES...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY. ATTM...A 100-105
HEAT INDEX EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP US JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EITHER WAY...ITS GONNA BE HOT AND STEAMY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW EACH AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...THOUGH THIS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE EACH NIGHT. LOW 70S ON
THE PLATEAU AND MIDDLE 70S WEST OF THE PLATEAU COULD MAKE FOR
UNCOMFORTABLE AIR EACH MORNING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE MID-90S TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT
AND IF YOU CAN BELIEVE IT...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD PUSH INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND SUPPRESSED
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
DIFFUSE AT BEST WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN CANADA...SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD REAR THEIR HEADS THURSDAY. MORE ON THIS AS WE APPROACH
MID-WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...THURSDAY`S FRONT WILL BE A MEMORY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID-STATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RELAX AND BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND.
UNGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 91 72 92 74 / 60 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 86 69 87 70 / 10 10 30 20
COLUMBIA 94 72 95 74 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 94 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 92 72 93 74 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (09Z-12Z) AT SOME SITES.
WATCHING OFF TO OUR EAST AND ALONG OUR SEABREEZE FOR POSSIBLE SHRA/
TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...KEEPING ALL TAFS DRY AND
WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED TWO BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION... WITH THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR GALVESTON ESE TOWARDS
PLATFORM KGHB /ABOUT 160 MILES SE OF CAMERON...LA/. THE SECOND WAS
LOCATED STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA
COAST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FIRST BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THE SECOND BOUNDARY... PER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
APPEARS TO BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
45. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT /LAKE CHARLES REPORTING 2.3
INCH PWAT AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWING THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS
PUSHING SOUTHWEST/ AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 95 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN LOW SHEAR BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER... CREATING AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT MAINLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOP OUT IN THE 101 TO 107 RANGE AND HAVE REISSUED AREA-WIDE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING THIS HAZARD. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AIR MOVING WWD
FROM LOUISIANA AND OFFSHORE TOWARD SE TX. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED W/ SOME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...MAKING IT INTO CNTL LA YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAD A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS YDAY...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE TODAY ESP IN
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL
STILL NEED TO OVERCOME QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BUT FELT LIKE
ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FCST IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. HRRR &
TX TECH WRF BOTH SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT & MUGGY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS
OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE
INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE
OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ISOLATED THRU THURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES...DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES BACK
IN...AND POSSIBLY A DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR SEABREEZE PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR HOPEFULLY BETTER AREAL PRECIP CHANCES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN
A WHILE. ADVERTISED POPS IN OUR FCST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD COULD BE
TOO LOW...BUT PREFER TO NUDGE THEM UP W/ TIME AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES - VERSUS THE OPPOSITE. 47
MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NO CAUTION FLAGS
ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SE
TX LATE IN THE WEEK (THURS/FRI) BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER ITS PROXIMITY WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A MORE W/SWLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 98 77 98 / 20 20 20 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 82 92 82 92 / 20 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
IT HAS TURNED INTO A MESSY FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AS THERE
IS SOME DESTABILIZATION AND A STACKED SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH /
ELONGATED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE
DOESNT REALLY MOVE AND WITH GROWING INSTABILITY COULD SPAWN
SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.
SPC 17Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED MLCAPE TO 3 KM REALLY
JUMPING UP JUST TO THE WEST OF KAEL TO KALO /200 J/KG/ AND LAPS
LOCAL ANALYSIS SYSTEM CONFIRMS THIS...BUT HAS SBCAPE TO 3KM VALUES
NEAR 250 J/KG. THUS...LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO
SUPPORTIVE OF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES /NST/. THE BIG PARAMETER WE
ARE WATCHING IS THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FOR MISOVORTEX ACTIVITY.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM SC MN /KFRM/ TO SW OF
KMCW...TO SW OF KALO AT 17Z. SO...IT IS CLOSE BUT SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. RAP SEEMS TO SHIFT THIS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BOTTOM LINE IS INSTABILITY AND SFC-700MB TROUGH HANGING OVER THE
AREA MEANS SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA COULD HAPPEN OVER SERN MN...NERN
IA...AND SWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AT ANY TIME. WHILE THE NST
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE APPEARS TO BE JUST SW/W OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HAVE INCLUDED NST FUNNELS INTO THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
A FEW COUNTIES BASED ON INSTABILITY GROWING RAPIDLY AND PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY. MEAN WIND WOULD CARRY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
EASTWARD WOULD THINK...AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY DIMINISHING NST
THREAT.
BEING CAREFUL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WE ARE ONLY 10F
AWAY IN THE CLOUDS. CLEARING COULD EASILY PROVIDE 10F AND HIT THE
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
INTO NORTHWEST IA WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST IMPACTING AREAS
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THIS
COMPLEX ARE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IA NEAR THE HIGHEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE WARM FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA NO LATER THAN NOON...BUT
SOME CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THIS AREA...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE 1 TO 2 CELSIUS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS WESTERN WI. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES TO
NEAR 700 HPA BY MID-AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE DRYING AT THE SURFACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BRIEFLY
DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE WARM BUT DRY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON MONDAY...BUT NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES...MUCAPE
EASILY RISES INTO THE 2000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS IA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP
DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH HEAT
INDICES RISING INTO THE MID 90S.
SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A 40 TO 50 KT 850 HPA NOCTURNAL JET MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN. WITH THIS
SET-UP WITHIN A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS LIKELY BUT ITS TIMING AND LOCATION ARE UNCERTAIN. AT
THIS TIME...WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TUESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW...GENERAL IDEA THAT
STRENGTHENING CAP WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 11 TO
13 CELSIUS RANGE WILL SQUASH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HOLDS. IN THIS SCENARIO...
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE
100 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IGNITE NEAR THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS POOR THIS FAR OUT LENDING TO LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
INVOF KRST THIS AFTERNOON AND TSRA COULD FORM AS WELL NEARBY.
THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR TSRA TO BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE AIR SPACE THERE.
OVERNIGHT IT APPEARS LIGHT LIFT WILL KEEP SOME VFR CLOUDS AT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MORE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SRN
MN INTO IA LOOKS TO GENERATE A NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK BY SUNRISE.
DRIER AIR TOWARD KLSE AND FURTHER EAST SEEMS TO INHIBIT THIS
CLOUD DECK A BIT. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT COULD PULL KLSE TO IFR FOG IN
THE MORNING.
IFR VSBY/CIG ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES BY SUNRISE. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO SUCH...BUT THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE IT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT