Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/24/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
918 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
INLAND WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS AT THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:09 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OF AROUND 2000 FEET IN DEPTH THIS MORNING HAS KEPT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.
WHILE MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN-OFF THROUGH
LATE MORNING...MANY COASTAL AREAS MAY REMAIN UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. NO UPDATED NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS FORECAST
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR REGION. THANKS TO A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS A MARINE LAYER AROUND
1800 FEET SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH
MANY VALLEY SPOTS. IN OTHER WORDS...A TYPICAL JULY DAY FOR THE SAN
FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
LACK OF STRONG INLAND HEAT DUE TO A LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.
SYNOPTICALLY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
BY THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK
TO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH 500 MB HEIGHTS PLUS 850 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE HELPING TO PUSH INLAND HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
AT FIRST AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WORK WEEK. LONGER RANGE
OUTLOOK SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR ALL NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACH 25C.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... MARINE LAYER
STRUGGLING TO GAIN A FOOTHOLD IN THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING AFTER
MAKING AN INITIAL PUSH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. MAJORITY OF SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE STRUGGLING NOT KEEPING UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS...
SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TOWARDS RUC SOLUTION OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSBL BTWN 14-15Z FOR BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE... FORT ORD PROFILER
SHOWING DEPTH OF MARINE LAYER AROUND 1000 FT WITH BASES AT 1000 FT
AND TOPS CLOSE TO 2000 FT. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS MONTEREY BAY AND
SALINAS VALLEY COMMUNITIES ARE UNDER MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT A MID
TO LATE MORNING CLEARING FOR MONTEREY BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REFLECTED BY TEMPO
GROUP THIS MORNING. VFR POSBL THRU MORN AT KSFO. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER RETURNS TONIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THIS MORNING
THROUGH 18-19Z... WITH MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TODAY AROUND
01Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:09 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH MODERATE STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS AT THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA NEXT WEEK PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS FORECAST COOLER AND
DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR REGION. THANKS TO A MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1800 FEET
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH MANY VALLEY
SPOTS. IN OTHER WORDS...A TYPICAL JULY DAY FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE LACK OF
STRONG INLAND HEAT DUE TO A LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.
SYNOPTICALLY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
BY THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK
TO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH 500 MB HEIGHTS PLUS 850 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE HELPING TO PUSH INLAND HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
AT FIRST AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WORK WEEK. LONGER RANGE
OUTLOOK SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR ALL NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACH 25C.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... MARINE LAYER
STRUGGLING TO GAIN A FOOTHOLD IN THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING AFTER
MAKING AN INITIAL PUSH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. MAJORITY OF SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE STRUGGLING NOT KEEPING UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS...
SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TOWARDS RUC SOLUTION OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSBL BTWN 14-15Z FOR BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE... FORT ORD PROFILER
SHOWING DEPTH OF MARINE LAYER AROUND 1000 FT WITH BASES AT 1000 FT
AND TOPS CLOSE TO 2000 FT. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS MONTEREY BAY AND
SALINAS VALLEY COMMUNITIES ARE UNDER MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT A MID
TO LATE MORNING CLEARING FOR MONTEREY BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REFLECTED BY TEMPO
GROUP THIS MORNING. VFR POSBL THRU MORN AT KSFO. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER RETURNS TONIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THIS MORNING
THROUGH 18-19Z... WITH MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TODAY AROUND
01Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SAN
FRANCISCO BAY WATERS STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT INCREASES. SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST RADAR AND SAT TRENDS ALONG WITH
HIGH RES PROGS. HRRR DEVELOPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVE...AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN CO MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT DISCOUNT
IT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION IS NOW E OF THE
CORRIDOR...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
PLAINS. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
CURRENTLY...SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S
TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING WY. THE DAY STARTED
OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS AND MT CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO
INITIATE. A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING...AND FORTUITOUS TIMING OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE...HAS NOW KICKED SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON ACTUAL ONGOING WX...SO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHALLENGING. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...BANDS OF CONVECTION...LIKELY TIED TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TO THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE UNTIL
THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING...SO NO WORD OF ANY
FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR AND STORMS HAVE BEEN AVOIDING AREA BURN
SCARS...SO FAR. SPC HAS PAINTED MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL
AREA....SO THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH. THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT...AND
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE FROM WEST TO EAST AND TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO COLORADO...SHUNTING AVAILABLE MOISTURE
EITHER FAR NORTH...OR WELL SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE THE ISOLATED
SHOT AT MT CONVECTION STARTING MIDDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE START TO A WARM AND ESSENTIALLY DRY PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE E
PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY SEE LESS STORMS OVERALL AS DRIER AIR
IS FORECAST TO IMPINGE OVER THIS REGION DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SO THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE...IE...THE PIKES PEAK REGION...WETS AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE AND ONLY MODEST WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE POPS OVER THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE WILL
BE IN THE ISOLD TO LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...WITH MAINLY ISOLD POPS
OVER THE PLAINS. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE L/M90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S OVER THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF THE SE CO PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY THAT LOW CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KCOS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY WED THAT IT HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE TAF. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PROBABILITY IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER AT KPUB SO WILL LEAVE THE LOW CLOUD GROUP SCT FOR NOW...BUT
THIS MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENT IF LOW CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KALS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE CO ON WED...SO TS PROBABILITIES WILL BE
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN AS VCTS IN THE TAFS. THERE COULD BE SOME
BUILDUPS OVER THE MTS...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...00Z KXMR SOUNDING REVEALS A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 2.15 INCHES WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
LEVELS. AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS CEASED THIS EVENING...THOUGH AM WATCHING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
SLIDING DOWN THE COAST ACROSS ST. JOHNS COUNTY. THE 00Z HRRR LOCAL
MODEL IS NOT CRAZY ABOUT THIS ACTIVITY HANGING TOGETHER INTO VOLUSIA
COUNTY BUT THE 18Z WRFARW2 THINKS OTHERWISE. WILL WATCH ACTIVITY AND
UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS AS NECESSARY BUT WE DO HAVE POPS IN TIL 03Z/11PM.
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER WILL UPDATE
ZONES BEFORE THIS SHIFT ENDS AT 11PM TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD
WORDING.
FRI-SAT...PREVIOUS...LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AROUND 15-
20 KTS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND
DRAGS A FRONTAL TROUGH INTO NORTH FL SAT. DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY (PW VALUES UP TO 2-2.3") AND WILL
COMBINE WITH ENERGY FROM A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY.
LACK OF A SEA BREEZE FROM STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AROUND -6C AT 500MB
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WX THREAT. HOWEVER STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. GREATER
STORM COVERAGE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR ACTIVITY NEAR KSGJ AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD
AND WILL UPDATE TAF AT KDAB IF ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION ON A DOWNWARD SWING THIS EVENING. MOSTLY VFR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ECFL. DEEP MOISTURE WITH WARM MID
LEVELS CONTINUE ON FRI. LOCAL MODELS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY MID
MORNING NORTH OF I-4 CORRIDOR SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WILL SEE IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN SPREADING
SHRA/TSRA QUICKER ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. SCT-NMRS CONVECTION
FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED WRLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SW/W SFC WINDS A BIT STRONGER ON FRI THAN THU. STEERING
WINDS CONTINUE TO TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN BUT AT A
QUICKER CLIP. TEMPO MVFR/IFR FOR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. TORRENTIAL
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS STILL.
&&
.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. SW/W FLOW 10 KTS NEAR SHORE/10-15 KTS OFFSHORE.
THE ECSB IF IT DOES DEVELOP ON FRI WILL BE BOTH DELAYED/PINNED NEAR
THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. SEAS 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT
OFFSHORE. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THE OFFSHORE STORM STEERING
FLOW ON FRI WILL BE FASTER AND MAY TAKE STORMS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
ONE LAST NOTE...ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THIS EVENING OFF OF ST.
AUGUSTINE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
WIDESPREAD AND MAY HANG TOGETHER LONGER THAN THOUGHT AS IT VENTURES
SOUTHWARD...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES...VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE NORTHWARD.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
840 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...PRIOR HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE DID VERY WELL WITH
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOWING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES OVER DUVAL/BAKER COUNTIES
TOWARD 00Z...WITH A SEPARATE CONVECTIVE LINE WITH LARGE STRATIFORM
AREA SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE GA.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT EXPECTATION OF
CONVECTION OVER DUVAL COUNTIES SPREADING/DEVELOPING ESE WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THRU 03Z...WHILE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN GA
CONTINUING ESE TRACK AFFECTING I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THRU
03Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING 03-06Z WHILE TRACKING ACROSS JAX
METRO AREA AND COASTAL GA COUNTIES. LOW TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS
PRODUCING ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
2-4 FT SEAS. BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 98 75 92 75 / 90 80 70 40
SSI 92 77 90 78 / 70 80 70 40
JAX 96 75 90 75 / 70 70 80 40
SGJ 93 77 90 76 / 30 40 70 40
GNV 94 76 88 76 / 40 30 70 50
OCF 93 76 88 75 / 60 30 70 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/ENYEDI/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
708 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED. UPDATED THE POPS EARLIER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR
AND HRRR TRENDS. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.
ALSO...UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING SE. THIS WAVE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST
BY 06-12Z FRI. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE STATE FRIDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA FRI. TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA
FRI WITH SOME 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
01
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT EXTENDED PORTION IN GREAT SHAPE AS MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA
INITIALLY LEAVING OUR LOCAL AREA MUCH DRIER THAN CLIMO FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CONSEQUENTLY POPS FOR SUN ARE QUITE LOW WITH NIL
POPS FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ONLY SMALL POCKETS
OF ISOLATED. AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE UPPER HIGH
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MON AND TUE TIMEFRAME BUT AGAIN OVERALL
GRIDS LOOKS IN GREAT SHAPE.
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE LEAVES THE AREA IN BETWEEN MAJOR
WEATHER SYSTEMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT RESIDUAL HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT SUGGESTS HIGH END CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ALSO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES FOR THE CENTRAL
GEORGIA PORTION.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES. DO THINK SOME SCT LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAWN...WITH LEVELS AROUND 025-030. DIURNAL CU AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 73 91 71 91 / 40 40 30 30
ATLANTA 74 90 72 91 / 30 30 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 68 85 65 86 / 40 30 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 91 71 91 / 30 30 20 20
COLUMBUS 76 95 75 96 / 50 40 30 30
GAINESVILLE 72 89 70 89 / 40 30 20 30
MACON 74 95 73 95 / 40 40 40 30
ROME 73 93 70 93 / 30 30 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 73 91 71 92 / 40 30 30 30
VIDALIA 76 93 74 93 / 60 50 50 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND REQUIRES NO UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY.
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AND FROM CMI TO JUST SOUTH OF SPI WILL SEE SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB OR APPROX 6000 FEET...WHICH
WOULD BRING US AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THICKEN UP EVEN MORE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXTENDED
SUN-WED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY
AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO
AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE
RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE
RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS DRY, BUT THE NAM CONTINUING TO
TREND THE TRACK JUST TO THE NE AND INTO ILX/S SW. SLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THU.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE
AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. POOL OF
HEAT OVER THE DESERT SW SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE MIDWEST WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 20-23C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
MIXED DOWN, TEMPS AT THE SFC SET TO MAX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, MODELS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLED CONSIDERABLY SHOULD THE
PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE SAT NIGHT-TUES TIME FRAME
MATERIALIZES. PREV DRY RUNS UNDER THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW
ARE LOSING THE DRY FORECAST TO A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SFC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SIMILAR TO THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH THIS SUMMER. WITH A
LACK OF CONTINUITY OR CONSENSUS, SLIGHTS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS AT AROUND 4000-5000FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE
AWAY BY SUNSET...LEAVING BEHIND ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES/NEARLY CALM WINDS/AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME MINOR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1039 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND REQUIRES NO UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY.
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AND FROM CMI TO JUST SOUTH OF SPI WILL SEE SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB OR APPROX 6000 FEET...WHICH
WOULD BRING US AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THICKEN UP EVEN MORE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXTENDED
SUN-WED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY
AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO
AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE
RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE
RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS DRY, BUT THE NAM CONTINUING TO
TREND THE TRACK JUST TO THE NE AND INTO ILX/S SW. SLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THU.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE
AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. POOL OF
HEAT OVER THE DESERT SW SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE MIDWEST WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 20-23C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
MIXED DOWN, TEMPS AT THE SFC SET TO MAX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, MODELS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLED CONSIDERABLY SHOULD THE
PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE SAT NIGHT-TUES TIME FRAME
MATERIALIZES. PREV DRY RUNS UNDER THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW
ARE LOSING THE DRY FORECAST TO A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SFC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SIMILAR TO THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH THIS SUMMER. WITH A
LACK OF CONTINUITY OR CONSENSUS, SLIGHTS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHALLOW GROUND
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD
AFFECT KPIA...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO
MENTION IN THE TAF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS...AND
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
603 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY.
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AND FROM CMI TO JUST SOUTH OF SPI WILL SEE SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB OR APPROX 6000 FEET...WHICH
WOULD BRING US AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THICKEN UP EVEN MORE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXTENDED
SUN-WED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY
AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO
AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE
RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE
RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS DRY, BUT THE NAM CONTINUING TO
TREND THE TRACK JUST TO THE NE AND INTO ILX/S SW. SLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THU.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE
AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. POOL OF
HEAT OVER THE DESERT SW SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE MIDWEST WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 20-23C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
MIXED DOWN, TEMPS AT THE SFC SET TO MAX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, MODELS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLED CONSIDERABLY SHOULD THE
PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE SAT NIGHT-TUES TIME FRAME
MATERIALIZES. PREV DRY RUNS UNDER THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW
ARE LOSING THE DRY FORECAST TO A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SFC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SIMILAR TO THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH THIS SUMMER. WITH A
LACK OF CONTINUITY OR CONSENSUS, SLIGHTS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHALLOW GROUND
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD
AFFECT KPIA...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO
MENTION IN THE TAF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS...AND
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY.
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AND FROM CMI TO JUST SOUTH OF SPI WILL SEE SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB OR APPROX 6000 FEET...WHICH
WOULD BRING US AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THICKEN UP EVEN MORE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 00Z.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXTENDED
SUN-WED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY
AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO
AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE
RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE
RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS DRY, BUT THE NAM CONTINUING TO
TREND THE TRACK JUST TO THE NE AND INTO ILX/S SW. SLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THU.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE
AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. POOL OF
HEAT OVER THE DESERT SW SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE MIDWEST WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 20-23C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
MIXED DOWN, TEMPS AT THE SFC SET TO MAX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, MODELS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLED CONSIDERABLY SHOULD THE
PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE SAT NIGHT-TUES TIME FRAME
MATERIALIZES. PREV DRY RUNS UNDER THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW
ARE LOSING THE DRY FORECAST TO A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SFC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SIMILAR TO THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH THIS SUMMER. WITH A
LACK OF CONTINUITY OR CONSENSUS, SLIGHTS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 06Z TAF PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-8KT ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
716 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 60S. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN INTO GREAT LAKES REGION IN NW
FLOW AND VIS SAT SHOWING EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION RESULTING IN PLEASANT SEASONABLE
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL TREND OUR AREA TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND
GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
COLD FRONT...TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTENING A SOUTH-CENTRAL US
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL WEAKEN SSE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING LIKELY PASSES NORTH
AND WANES BY PEAK HEATING...THOUGH FOLD OVER OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE AND NEAR 70F SFC DEWPOINTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE MAIN FRONT OR LEADING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BY MID AFTN-EARLY EVE. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS FOR 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
MID LEVEL JET WORKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LOOKS TO STALL JUST
SSW OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WEAK
WNW FLOW WILL HELP FOCUS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS FEATURE. THIS PLACES AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THE US
30 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA FOR BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING NE INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF RENEWED WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER
HUMIDITY/WARMER TEMPS TO BUILD IN BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH BY LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR CALM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU POSSIBLE IN THE
3-4 KFT RANGE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-9 KTS WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTO KSBN LATE AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LOGSDON
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
QUIET AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA. THE CUMULUS
FIELD WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BOUNDARY
ACROSS WESTERN NE WITH TOWERING CUMULUS ALREADY DEVELOPING. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FORMING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD. THESE STORMS
MAY ONLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NE BEFORE
WEAKENING. ONLY THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY GOING INTO CENTRAL KS. THERE IS A LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS THAT VEERS THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KS ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DRY AIR WHERE THE
LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
TO BE FAR SOUTHEAST KS. THIS GIVES ME LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR
NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR WESTERN NE CONVECTION REACHING THE AREA AND OR
ELEVATED PRECIP FORMING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH
25-30 C BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEW POINTS STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN FAR EASTERN KS. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER MIXING IN CENTRAL
KS THAT NOSES INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD CAUSE THE
DEW POINTS TO DECREASE DURING PEAK HEATING BUT WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS THE MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM 106-111, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS
PRECIP FORECAST. CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ FOCUSES A LITTLE BETTER TO THE WEST BEFORE
VEERING WITH TIME AND CONVERGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL HAVE TO BATTLE AGAINST PERSISTENT CAP AT 700MB. WITH THIS
PATTERN WOULD ANTICIPATE STORMS TO MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY AND
WILL DRAW UP RAIN CHANCES AS SUCH. NAM AND GFS BRING A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
LITTLE STRONGER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WOULD LIKELY SEE A
BREAK IN PRECIP IN THE MID TO LATE DAY BEFORE STORMS COME IN FROM
THE WEST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONCE AGAIN FOCUSING BETTER TO
THE NORTH. AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST...THE RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES IN ITS WAKE...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE DROPPED TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE PERIODIC IMPACTS ON THE HEAT...HOWEVER
FOR SATURDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS THINK ITS A GOOD BET THAT HEAT
INDICIES WILL RISE BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD CATCH MORE OF A
BREAK. NOT EXTENDING THE ADVISORY PRODUCT AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THINK SUNDAY WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT FROM CONVECTION NEAR
THE AREA...AND DON`T CURRENTLY HAVE ADVISORY INDICES IN THE
FORECAST.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE MONDAY HELPS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER FEW HOT DAYS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY A NICE COOL DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IF ANY CONVECTION
OUT IN THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES IT AS FAR AS MHK IT WOULD BE AFTER
06Z. 18Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE MVFR CIG DEVELOPING
AROUND 09Z, CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS BECOMING SOUTH BY 15Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MINOR DISTURBANCE SEEN OVER SW MO HEADING EAST WITH SOME UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NOTED. HRRR HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH 00Z-03Z...MOVING THE ACTIVITY EAST. LIGHTNING PROGS OFF
THE REFRESH MODEL NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...
MID LEVEL MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ML CAPES MEANS WE WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED. BETTER POPS WILL BE ACROSS SE MO
INTO WRN KY AND SRN TIP OF IL INITIALLY. SHOULD REMAIN DRY EARLY
TONIGHT UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. SUPPOSE A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THERE. OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE...WITH BEST POPS SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
EXPANSION IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY BY THE NAM EVEN UP TOWARD THE
KEVV TRI-STATE AS MOISTURE INCREASES THAT DIRECTION. WILL GUIDE
POPS INTO THAT AREA.
THURSDAY...BEST POPS WILL SHIFT SE WITH TIME COINCIDENT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND BEST MOISTURE...AND AS THE MID
TROP FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE NW. THE VEERING WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRYING INCREASING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE
DO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SE MO WHERE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO EXIST. THAT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST 1/2 OF FRIDAY BEFORE HEADING SSE. FRIDAY
NIGHT DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. WE COULD SEE AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF MISSOURI WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS. WILL WAIT FOR A MORE CONSISTENT
SIGNAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF MOS. TRENDED AWAY FROM
GFS MOS WHEN IT WAS AT ITS WARMEST ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IT HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL AS OF LATE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE RECENT HEAT
EVENT (OPPRESSIVE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS/HIGH DEW POINT AIR)
IN WHICH AMBIENT TEMPS SEEMED TO REACH A LIMIT...JUST BELOW WHAT
GUIDANCE WOULD PROJECT FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THOUGH THE FINER DETAILS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...THE
GENERAL SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE PAH FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE SRN STATES. TWO MAIN NRN STREAM SHRTWVS ARE PROGGED BY THE
MED RANGE MODELS TO MOVE BY TO THE NORTH...ONE DURING THE WEEKEND...
AND ONE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EACH SHOULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A NORTH-SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE IN FAR WRN SECTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...A LINGERING WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...ENCOURAGING MORE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS SETUP...AFTERNOON TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST VS. THE
EAST ESPECIALLY SAT. THUS...HEAT INDICES COULD SPIKE TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
100 AND 105 SHOULD BE MORE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AFTERWARDS.
THE MED RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF NRN STREAM
SHRTWV ENERGY ALOFT IN THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE DESTABILIZING
EFFECT OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WRN KY HAVING THE
LEAST POP. IF A SEWD-MOVING SFC BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...IT MAY BECOME UNRECOGNIZABLE. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS A
PERSISTENT SRLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND.
IT APPEARS A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY MAY SET UP IN THE FAR WEST...WITH ANOTHER
(POSSIBLY STRONGER) SEWD-MOVING SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHING. THIS
SHOULD MEAN SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP
UNTIL WED...WHEN THE PARENT SHRTWV WILL BE CLOSER TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY THEN. RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT
WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR REGION.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN ANY ONE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY. LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S WILL PREVAIL...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE TIME...YIELDING THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT INDICES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
AREA IS ESSENTIALLY PRECIP FREE. CU/MID CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED WITH
LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER KEVV TRI-STATE. NEXT WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER SW MO WILL HEAD EAST ACCOMPANIED BY CHC SHRA
MAINLY SE MO / WRN KY...SRN TIP OF IL LATE DAY / EARLY EVENING.
COULD BE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS. OVERNIGHT SW OF PERRYVILLE
MO...GREENVILLE KY LINE...MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MID CLOUDS EXPECTED NE OF THERE INCLUDING
KEVV / KOWB. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. FUTURE
UPDATES CAN ADD UPON INCREASED CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...CN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DEEPER INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE NOTED WHILE TO
THE SOUTH MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ARE COMMON. THE HIGH ALSO HELPED TO
BREAK UP AND LIFT THE LOWER STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING. ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR...A PAIR OF MCVS ARE MOVING EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE LEADING ONE OF THESE IS JUST
ABOUT TO PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY NEAR
THE TENNESSEE BORDER. OTHERWISE...IT IS A PLEASANT ENOUGH DAY OUT
THERE UNDER PARTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR
80 NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE
THAT FLAT FLOW CURRENTLY ABOVE KENTUCKY WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TRANSITION...WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH KENTUCKY STARTING WITH THE MCVS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SMALL
SCALE NATURE OF THESE FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE MINOR MID LEVEL WAVES PASS BY. THE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOULD KEEP THE FOG A BIT MORE
LIMITED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT
FOR ANYTHING BECOMING ORGANIZED OR TOO STRONG. THIS LEADS TO A
BETTER CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVES
PULL OUT OF KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR A
LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WINDS INTO
TONIGHT AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES AND THE EXPECTATION OF RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE
DRIER MET MOS THAN THE MAV TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE WAS IN LINE
WITH THE LOW POP CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER TEXAS AND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM AND NOT SO HUMID FORECAST THE RESULT. A SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
WHILE GRADUALLY WASHING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH COVERAGE LIKELY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE
MORNING FOG AND ALSO LIFT THE LOWER CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A
SFC WAVE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR A STRAY STORM TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AND CB IN THE
SOUTHERN TAFS ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS FOR THIS TIME. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL
SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
643 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
THERE STILL MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING
WHERE THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN CLOSE TO THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. ONCE WE GET PAST
DAYTIME HEATING, THINK IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES IN FROM KANSAS SUPPLYING SOME SUBSIDENCE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE WRF AND RAP AREA NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR INSTABILITY THAT WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM MID EVENING ONWARD. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURES.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
PINNING DOWN THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AND INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY A BIT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH REMANTS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED BENEATH THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. SCENARIO ISN`T ONE THAT FAVORS A LOT IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION, BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE OZARKS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/OROGRAPHIC LIFT
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED CELLS.
CONCERN FOR CONVECTION INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND;
FIRST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO MIGRATE OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SUGGESTS A RING
OF FIRE PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
CONVECTION WILL GET INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
FIRST RIPPLE IN THE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WAA IS PROGGED TO COMMENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND ALL MODELS BEGIN TO HINT AT SOME PRECIP IN
OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH NAM AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS QPF. NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE CONVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL MORE
ROUNDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHILE GFS IS SLOWER WITH PRECIP
PUSHING INTO OUR AREA, AND FOCUSES IT SOUTHWARD SURGE OF QPF IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
OBVIOUSLY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC POP
TRENDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A MYRIAD OF ILL-DEFINED FEATURES
(EXTREMELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, SEVERAL BOUTS OF WEAK
NOCTURNAL JET FORCING, AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT TO
OUR NORTH THAT WILL BE BEAT SOUTH BY SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES)
THAT COULD PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA. AS
NOTED BY WFO EAX EARLIER TODAY...THIS UPCOMING PATTERN IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT THE CENTRAL CONUS EXPERIENCED ABOUT A WEEK AGO.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED GOING FORECAST
TRENDS WHICH INDICATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMPING UP INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. IN TRUTH, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS OF MUCH HIGHER
AND MUCH LOWER POPS, BUT THOSE ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE
WHEN SHORT-TERM TRENDS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR.
OTHER CONCERN IS INCREASING LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH THIS INCREASE WILL BE FELT
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW, PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE IN
THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME WHEN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WELL IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY TO HOW OPPRESSIVE IT
WILL BECOME, AND THIS WILL BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND
CLOUDINESS THE AREA EXPERIENCES. IF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ARE AT A
MINIMUM, HEAT INDICIES OF 105 WILL BE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF MID
MISSOURI. AGAIN, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WITH THE
ABOVE PARAMETERS, SO WILL LET MID SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE
HOISTING ANY HEADLINES.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...ALONG WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SOME REMNANTS OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE
REGION. POPS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER BY MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE BREAKS
DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA.
TRUETT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
SURFACE RIDGE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS,
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PATCHY MVFR FOG TONIGHT FOR KSUS AND KCPS, SO LEFT OUT MENTION FOR
NOW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
SURFACE RIDGE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS,
TO REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1214 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST
NOTABLE THING WILL BE THE FACT THESE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTER EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US IN A SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND/UNDER 10 MPH. WE
LACK A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE NIL TO VERY
LOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES START TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...WITH VALUES
MOSTLY AROUND THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE NAM SUGGEST VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BUT THIS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 KNOTS. 0-1 KM HELICITY
VALUES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND EUROPEAN.
OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 80-150 M^2/S^2 OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT A TRUE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM TODAY...WE ARE RELYING SOLELY ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH IS
NOT BACK ACROSS KANSAS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE ARE REALLY GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET
RAINFALL TODAY. MANY OF THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS SUGGEST
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE HRRR IS REALLY THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. NMM...ARW...AND THE
NAM4KM ALL HAVE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. I HAVE DECREASED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
IT APPEARS OMEGA WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH INCLUDES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION OR TWO COULD CLEAR THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH GENERALLY 20-
40% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING
AND NEXT TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...LOW VALUES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH VALUES
OF POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD PRESENT ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAY TO DAY...GIVEN THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF ~2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FELT IT PRUDENT
TO GO WITH A MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON MOST
DAYS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 100
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND AROUND 105 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT INDEX WORDING IN THE HWO AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS ON REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS BUT BETTER CHCS FOR THIS
APPEARS EAST OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY
VARIABLE DUE TO CONVECTION AROUND AND CIGS RANGE FROM NEAR IFR TO
VFR. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF VSBY IN BR AND A LOWER CIG
TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST
NOTABLE THING WILL BE THE FACT THESE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTER EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US IN A SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND/UNDER 10 MPH. WE
LACK A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE NIL TO VERY
LOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES START TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...WITH VALUES
MOSTLY AROUND THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE NAM SUGGEST VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BUT THIS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 KNOTS. 0-1 KM HELICITY
VALUES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND EUROPEAN.
OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 80-150 M^2/S^2 OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT A TRUE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM TODAY...WE ARE RELYING SOLELY ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH IS
NOT BACK ACROSS KANSAS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE ARE REALLY GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET
RAINFALL TODAY. MANY OF THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS SUGGEST
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE HRRR IS REALLY THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. NMM...ARW...AND THE
NAM4KM ALL HAVE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. I HAVE DECREASED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
IT APPEARS OMEGA WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH INCLUDES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION OR TWO COULD CLEAR THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH GENERALLY 20-
40% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING
AND NEXT TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...LOW VALUES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH VALUES
OF POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD PRESENT ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAY TO DAY...GIVEN THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF ~2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FELT IT PRUDENT
TO GO WITH A MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON MOST
DAYS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 100
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND AROUND 105 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT INDEX WORDING IN THE HWO AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE REALLY TWO CONCERNS
THIS PERIOD. ONE IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND THE OTHER IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SMALL TODAY
BUT LOOK TO BE BEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AROUND 00Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LACK INSTABILITY SHOULD HOLD OFF THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS IN THE TAF
LATER TODAY ONCE TIMING AND COVERAGE IS BETTER UNDERSTOOD. WE
COULD HAVE A CHANGE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
MORE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT HAVE CONDITIONS CHANGING UNTIL
AROUND 09Z TOMORROW WHEN THE CHANCES FOR FOG INCREASE. WE COULD GO
TO AT LEAST MVFR AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW NIGHT WIND SPEEDS WILL GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASE
UNDER A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE INVERSION TOMORROW IS NOT TOO
DEEP/STRONG...SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
AROUND 4 TO 5 HOURS AT MOST BEFORE WE START MIXING OUT. IT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO LOOK TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...GUERRERO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
339 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST
NOTABLE THING WILL BE THE FACT THESE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTER EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US IN A SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND/UNDER 10 MPH. WE
LACK A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE NIL TO VERY
LOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES START TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...WITH VALUES
MOSTLY AROUND THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE NAM SUGGEST VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BUT THIS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 KNOTS. 0-1 KM HELICITY
VALUES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND EUROPEAN.
OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 80-150 M^2/S^2 OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT A TRUE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM TODAY...WE ARE RELYING SOLELY ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH IS
NOT BACK ACROSS KANSAS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE ARE REALLY GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET
RAINFALL TODAY. MANY OF THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS SUGGEST
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE HRRR IS REALLY THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. NMM...ARW...AND THE
NAM4KM ALL HAVE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. I HAVE DECREASED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
IT APPEARS OMEGA WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH INCLUDES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION OR TWO COULD CLEAR THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH GENERALLY 20-
40% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING
AND NEXT TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...LOW VALUES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH VALUES
OF POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD PRESENT ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAY TO DAY...GIVEN THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF ~2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FELT IT PRUDENT
TO GO WITH A MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON MOST
DAYS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 100
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND AROUND 105 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT INDEX WORDING IN THE HWO AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
859 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK SLOWLY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT (MAINLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WINDS)
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SRN/ERN
SANDHILLS... WHERE OUR EARLIER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT HAVE CONGEALED AND GROWN UPSCALE AS THEY
ENCOUNTERED A SEA-BREEZE-ENHANCED INVERTED TROUGH JUST INLAND OVER
ERN NC. ANOTHER WEAK INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NE SC (ALONG THE WAVY WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SC) ACROSS
THE SRN PIEDMONT INTO THE FOOTHILLS... AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER OUR FAR SRN/WRN CWA... DRIVEN IN PART BY
THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO CENTRAL TN. THE
NSSL-WRF AND HRRR HAVE DONE A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH CONVECTION SO FAR
TODAY... AND THEY BOTH AGREE ON THIS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE OVER THE SE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND BACK OVER
THE WRN/SW CWA TOWARD EVENING WITH A TREND TO GOOD CHANCE POPS...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE EXITING CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT... AS THE SURFACE LOW
GETS PUSHED EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WITH GOOD HEATING IN OUR SW CWA IN
RECENT HOURS... WHICH HAVE PUSHED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7.5
C/KM WITH OVER 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR... SO THE SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND WESTWARD TO OUR SW SECTIONS
WELL INTO EARLY EVENING. AGAIN... THIS LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WITH WET MICROBURSTS... BUT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS (ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE RISEN OVER THE SW CWA IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS) HINT THAT A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AND WITH SUCH A WARM AND WET COLUMN (PW WELL OVER 2.0")...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH IN JUST A HALF HOUR WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO TONIGHT. FROM RALEIGH TO THE NORTH...
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT MOST THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LOWS OF 68 TO 73 AS DEWPOINTS START TO FALL
IN THE NORTH LATE. PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A DRYING AND STABILIZING COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OFF THE SRN NC COAST...
ALLOWING DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER OH TO
FINALLY WORK INTO CENTRAL NC. WILL KEEP A TREND TOWARD DECREASING
CLOUDS NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHALLOW
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE IN THE AFTERNOON... AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
FOR THE LOW LEVELS THERE TO DRY OUT WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOT
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THERE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. THICKNESSES AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHS OF 87-91. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE APPALACHIANS...SUPPRESSING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...BUT EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES. IN ADDITION...
THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED NEAR
TEXAS...IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WHICH WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE
MUCH OF OUR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY UPSTREAM
MCS/MCVS WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ALTHOUGH...
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON A SYSTEM LATE MONDAY...BUT THIS TIMING IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUS...WILL JUST SHOW NEAR NORMAL POPS (LOW END
CHANCE) FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL... WITH ONLY POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY KFAY... POSSIBLY
KRDU/KRWI). GIVEN A LINGERING MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH LITTLE
PUSH FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES... EXPECT SUB-VFR (LOW END MVFR/IFR... WITH POSSIBLY SOME
BRIEF LIFR) STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT ON FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE... WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY... AS THE SURFACE
FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE SOUTHWARD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND NE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A DISTURBANCE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HEAT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE ADDED A SWATH OF 30-60 POPS FROM THE
WHITEVILLE-LAKE WACCAMAW AREA EAST INTO WILMINGTON WITH A PERSISTENT
BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20 MPH. COMPARED
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS SAMPSON...PENDER AND DUPLIN
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS IS WEAKER AND MORE LIMITED IN
VERTICAL DEPTH BUT STILL CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND PRODUCING LIGHTNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF DARLINGTON
MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME HOLDING TOGETHER. REGARDLESS...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE IN THE 3-5 AM TIMEFRAME WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM
FOLLOWS...
THE FA IS UNDER THE SOUTHERN END OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...AND SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE NATURE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ILM CWA.
THE SFC TROF/COOL FRONT COMBO ORIENTED ENE-WSW...SHOULD PUSH TO OR
JUST OFF THE ILM CWA COASTS AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW TO N AFTER THIS BOUNDARIES PASSAGE. IN
FACT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS AREAS...ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS HAVING RECEIVED RAINFALL. TEMPS/DEWPTS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. OVERALL...HRRR MODEL HAD THE GENERAL
TRENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE WORSE
CONVECTION N THRU NE OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST AT SUNRISE IN THE MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
THIS FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS FRONT IS
TO SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO
GEORGETOWN WILL HAVE WAIT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE 90S AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. ON
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 90 IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TO THE 92 TO 95
RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TO A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE WITH THE LOW RIDING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S WITH TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EAST...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING A WEAKER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THAT A COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THIS FLOW NEXT TUESDAY THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE HERE. FOR
FRIDAY TROUGH MONDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL BELOW 1.5 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS.
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN OUTER
BANKS...BUT NEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY STILL AFFECT THE ILM AIRPORT
OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN MAY SEE SOME FOG...PREDOMINATELY MVFR.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH.
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MYRTLE BEACH & FLORENCE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH. FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE ISSUED AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
FOR THE NC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING NEAR 20 MILES FROM SHORE AT THIS TIME...BUT THE TREND
SHOULD BE TOWARD RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH IN STRENGTH. LATEST SEAS AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF
SOUTHPORT WERE 5.5 FEET...WITH 4 FOOT SEAS AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. OFFSHORE THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAS HAD
6 FOOT SEAS SINCE 9 PM EDT. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
BASED ON LATEST WIND AND SEAS REPORTS/TRENDS AND HRRR PROGRESSION OF
WX FEATURES...HAVE TWEAKED BOTH WIND AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT MAINLY A SLOW
VEERING WIND DIRECTION CHANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
WED HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE W-NW WIND DIRECTIONS BY DAYBREAK WED.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE SFC TROF AXIS TO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MORE-SO
OCCURRING AFTER DAYBREAK WED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ALSO A BIT SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH A CONTINUED UNDERLYING LAZY 1 FOOT OR LESS SE
GROUND SWELL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER SANTEE. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THIS
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SWITCHING TO THE THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST BY MORNING TO MID-MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE BACK FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR SO TO THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
THE HIGH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
ENSUING. A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS...REMAINING WEAKLY FORCED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
CANCELLED BURLEIGH...MORTON...GRANT...SIOUX AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
WITH THIS UPDATE. OVERALL...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 240 UTC IS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW. THIS IS PLACING A LIMIT ON THE UTILIZATION OF THE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT SAID...THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND/OR IF ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SUFFICIENTLY DECOUPLES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE MAJORITY OF COUNTIES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 BEHIND THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 130 UTC. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...AND THE 23-00 UTC HRRR...A CONTINUED CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION INTO A LINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE JAMES AND INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4500
J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LOW
LEVEL JET ONSET. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES...TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT SHOULD A LINE
FORM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 AT THIS TIME.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2345 UTC BLENDED TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
AND WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 739 FOR STORM THREAT
AND EVOLUTION DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST.
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA NOW WITH WINDS WEST OF THE FROPA ACROSS THE FAR WEST
OUT OF THE NORTH OR WEST. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE
VERY MOIST EAST OF THE FRONT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH MID 80S AND LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. CLOUD COVER
NORTHWEST WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH DAKOTA
ENABLING INSTABILITY UPWARDS TO 4-5K J/KG.
ROBUST CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN 19-21Z WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...THEN DEVELOP/MOVE EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. AS MODELS HAVE
PORTRAYED THE LAST FEW DAYS...BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY
DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE...BUT CATCHES UP LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
STILL...ENOUGH CAPE TO OVERCOME LACK OF SHEAR ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/WV. AS THE SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION INDICATED...DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO MCS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES TO THE
EAST RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS WHERE
AS HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT FIRST. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG TO EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW TOMORROW SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT FOR FRIDAY WILL BE LOW. STILL WARM BUT MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LIFTED
NORTHEAST...WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...APPROACHING KJMS AROUND 3-4 UTC. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MVFR
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HAVE BEEN STRONG ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND HRRR DATA. LOOKING FOR THIS LINE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH AND
A SECONDARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH NEAR NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. SEVERE WATCH GOES UNTIL 1 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL
WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL REACH THE RED RIVER
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL...FRONT IS CURRENTLY
(20Z) LOCATED FROM NORTH OF WINNIPEG INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR DICKINSON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
ALONG THIS FEATURE IN CANADA (WHERE THE MID- LEVEL CAP IS
WEAKER)...AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THE FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NORTH DAKOTA COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAP WILL BE ABLE TO
INITIATE STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (AT LEAST ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY). ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION WILL ORGANIZE INTO SOME SORT OF
EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX...CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE INDICATES
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40 KNOT 500MB JET) AND A DEVELOPING
40 KNOT 850MB JET. IN FACT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
SHOWING A QLCS EVENT WITH AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS E ND
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN. SPC IN ON BOARD WITH THIS ASSESSMENT
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. QLCS
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SE ND WHERE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL
BE WEST 30-40 KNOTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...BUT THE SYSTEM
APPEARS IT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING OF POPS.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK FAST MOVING
WAVE...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY (LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS)
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. KEPT WITH A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES...WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AMONG THE MODELS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S.
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING FROM PAC NW TO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CLOSE OFF...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE LOW INDICATED
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STACKED LOW WILL
BE NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES MOVE TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MINNESOTA TUE/WED WITH CHC POPS PREVAILING. THE COMPLEX IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO NW AND A DRIER REGIME TO END THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS
REACHING THE MN/ND BORDER BY MIDNIGHT OR JUST BEFORE. LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER BEHIND STORMS INTO MORNING HOURS AT KBJI.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
852 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE MAJORITY OF COUNTIES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 BEHIND THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 130 UTC. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...AND THE 23-00 UTC HRRR...A CONTINUED CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION INTO A LINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE JAMES AND INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4500
J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LOW
LEVEL JET ONSET. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES...TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT SHOULD A LINE
FORM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 AT THIS TIME.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2345 UTC BLENDED TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
AND WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 739 FOR STORM THREAT
AND EVOLUTION DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST.
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA NOW WITH WINDS WEST OF THE FROPA ACROSS THE FAR WEST
OUT OF THE NORTH OR WEST. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE
VERY MOIST EAST OF THE FRONT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH MID 80S AND LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. CLOUD COVER
NORTHWEST WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH DAKOTA
ENABLING INSTABILITY UPWARDS TO 4-5K J/KG.
ROBUST CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN 19-21Z WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...THEN DEVELOP/MOVE EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. AS MODELS HAVE
PORTRAYED THE LAST FEW DAYS...BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY
DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE...BUT CATCHES UP LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
STILL...ENOUGH CAPE TO OVERCOME LACK OF SHEAR ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/WV. AS THE SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION INDICATED...DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO MCS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES TO THE
EAST RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS WHERE
AS HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT FIRST. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG TO EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW TOMORROW SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT FOR FRIDAY WILL BE LOW. STILL WARM BUT MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LIFTED
NORTHEAST...WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...APPROACHING KJMS
AROUND 3-4 UTC. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
655 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 AT THIS TIME.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2345 UTC BLENDED TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
AND WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 739 FOR STORM THREAT
AND EVOLUTION DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST.
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA NOW WITH WINDS WEST OF THE FROPA ACROSS THE FAR WEST
OUT OF THE NORTH OR WEST. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE
VERY MOIST EAST OF THE FRONT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH MID 80S AND LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. CLOUD COVER
NORTHWEST WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH DAKOTA
ENABLING INSTABILITY UPWARDS TO 4-5K J/KG.
ROBUST CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN 19-21Z WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...THEN DEVELOP/MOVE EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. AS MODELS HAVE
PORTRAYED THE LAST FEW DAYS...BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY
DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE...BUT CATCHES UP LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
STILL...ENOUGH CAPE TO OVERCOME LACK OF SHEAR ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/WV. AS THE SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION INDICATED...DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO MCS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES TO THE
EAST RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS WHERE
AS HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT FIRST. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG TO EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW TOMORROW SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT FOR FRIDAY WILL BE LOW. STILL WARM BUT MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LIFTED
NORTHEAST...WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FROM KMOT THROUGH KBIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...APPROACHING KJMS AROUND 2-3 UTC. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MVFR
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL
WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL REACH THE RED RIVER
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL...FRONT IS CURRENTLY
(20Z) LOCATED FROM NORTH OF WINNIPEG INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR DICKINSON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
ALONG THIS FEATURE IN CANADA (WHERE THE MID- LEVEL CAP IS
WEAKER)...AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THE FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NORTH DAKOTA COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAP WILL BE ABLE TO
INITIATE STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (AT LEAST ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY). ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION WILL ORGANIZE INTO SOME SORT OF
EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX...CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE INDICATES
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40 KNOT 500MB JET) AND A DEVELOPING
40 KNOT 850MB JET. IN FACT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
SHOWING A QLCS EVENT WITH AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS E ND
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN. SPC IN ON BOARD WITH THIS ASSESSMENT
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. QLCS
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SE ND WHERE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL
BE WEST 30-40 KNOTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...BUT THE SYSTEM
APPEARS IT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING OF POPS.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK FAST MOVING
WAVE...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY (LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS)
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. KEPT WITH A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES...WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AMONG THE MODELS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S.
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING FROM PAC NW TO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CLOSE OFF...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE LOW INDICATED
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STACKED LOW WILL
BE NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES MOVE TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MINNESOTA TUE/WED WITH CHC POPS PREVAILING. THE COMPLEX IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO NW AND A DRIER REGIME TO END THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS
REACHING THE MN/ND BORDER BY MIDNIGHT OR JUST BEFORE. LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER BEHIND STORMS INTO MORNING HOURS AT KBJI.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
SKY COVER AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR IMAGERY.
TWO EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
TRIGGERING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY MIGRATE OR
DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCE THAT CONVECTION IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL CROSS THE
BORDER INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED.
HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL MAINTAIN/ADD A LOW POP FOR
THESE AREAS.
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK FOR THE MID/LATE MORNING UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
AND BLENDED OTHER ELEMENTS TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA SLOWLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST
ND. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS WELL...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR HAS ANY ACTIVITY
OUTSIDE OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LATEST
(7UTC) HRRR IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE VALLEY AS IT HAS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...YET CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE HRRR/RAP/WRF/NAM.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING...COVERAGE
AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD PLACEMENT
OF QPF COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH IS
ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ND
ON THURSDAY. ALL MODELS FORECAST AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
BY 18Z WITH SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
ND...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM
SHEAR STARTS OUT AROUND 20-25KTS AT 18Z THU PER GFS/NAM WITH
STRONGER VALUES DISPLACED WEST OF BEST CAPE...EVENTUALLY INCREASING
TO 30-35KTS BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONTANA...BRUSHING WESTERN ND AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC...GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
SKY COVER AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR IMAGERY.
TWO EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
TRIGGERING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY MIGRATE OR
DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCE THAT CONVECTION IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL CROSS THE
BORDER INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED.
HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL MAINTAIN/ADD A LOW POP FOR
THESE AREAS.
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK FOR THE MID/LATE MORNING UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
AND BLENDED OTHER ELEMENTS TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA SLOWLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST
ND. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS WELL...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR HAS ANY ACTIVITY
OUTSIDE OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LATEST
(7UTC) HRRR IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE VALLEY AS IT HAS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...YET CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE HRRR/RAP/WRF/NAM.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING...COVERAGE
AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD PLACEMENT
OF QPF COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH IS
ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ND
ON THURSDAY. ALL MODELS FORECAST AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
BY 18Z WITH SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
ND...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM
SHEAR STARTS OUT AROUND 20-25KTS AT 18Z THU PER GFS/NAM WITH
STRONGER VALUES DISPLACED WEST OF BEST CAPE...EVENTUALLY INCREASING
TO 30-35KTS BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONTANA...BRUSHING WESTERN ND AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC...GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
AND BLENDED OTHER ELEMENTS TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA SLOWLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST
ND. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS WELL...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR HAS ANY ACTIVITY
OUTSIDE OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LATEST
(7UTC) HRRR IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE VALLEY AS IT HAS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...YET CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE HRRR/RAP/WRF/NAM.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING...COVERAGE
AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD PLACEMENT
OF QPF COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH IS
ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ND
ON THURSDAY. ALL MODELS FORECAST AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
BY 18Z WITH SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
ND...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM
SHEAR STARTS OUT AROUND 20-25KTS AT 18Z THU PER GFS/NAM WITH
STRONGER VALUES DISPLACED WEST OF BEST CAPE...EVENTUALLY INCREASING
TO 30-35KTS BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONTANA...BRUSHING WESTERN ND AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC...GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
346 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LATEST
(7UTC) HRRR IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE VALLEY AS IT HAS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...YET CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE HRRR/RAP/WRF/NAM.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING...COVERAGE
AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD PLACEMENT
OF QPF COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH IS
ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ND
ON THURSDAY. ALL MODELS FORECAST AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
BY 18Z WITH SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
ND...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM
SHEAR STARTS OUT AROUND 20-25KTS AT 18Z THU PER GFS/NAM WITH
STRONGER VALUES DISPLACED WEST OF BEST CAPE...EVENTUALLY INCREASING
TO 30-35KTS BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONTANA...BRUSHING WESTERN ND AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC...GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KJMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO TRIM POPS FURTHER EAST AND SLIGHTLY ADJUST
TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
TRIMMED POPS AGAIN CENTRAL FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR CONTINUES TO TO HOLD ONTO SOME CONVECTION
WEST TONIGHT. BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. INSTEAD WILL FOCUS ON
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
LATEST HRRR RUN HINTS AT EXPANDING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL
TRIM POPS BACK ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WILL
LEAVE THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY...THIS TIME MORE HUMID.
CURRENTLY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST WITH A
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT...OVER MY FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LACK OF INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND EAST SO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION
FOR THE DURATION OF TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
A DECENT SOUTHERLY MIXING FLOW COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WAA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE 80S. COOLER WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS.
HIGH RES MODELS STILL INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INITIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
IN PROXIMITY TO A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS THEN
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME IN THE
EVENING. COVERAGE STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH LATEST NSHARP
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. DUE TO THIS AND LITTLE FORCING ALOFT
OPTED TO KEEP OUR POPS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING DRY TONIGHT.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT BUT REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE SFC TROUGH OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING...AND WILL KEEP NORTH DAKOTA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 90S WEST. MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY
AS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION THANKS
TO A MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRETCHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...AND
POTENTIAL OF A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DRAWING 60-65F DEWPOINTS INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS IN PLACE UPSTREAM OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REACHES WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE IN THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES (HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RANGING FROM 3000-5000 J/KG) THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS WOULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. HAVE PUT THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FAR WEST...OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THESE TWO DAYS FOR A NICE
REPRIEVE...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORMING OFF THE WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT AS HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...BUT INCREASING HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KJMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS...BUT CONTINUE THINK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES AND A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MADE A FEW FURTHER TWEAKS TO POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STARTED TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL ND
FROM SD. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
ACTIVITY AND IT HAS THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH DISSIPATING AND MORE
ACTIVITY FIRING JUST WEST OF THE RED RIVER LATER ON DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN HAVE ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NOT A LOT OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO WENT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
TWEAKED POPS A BIT TONIGHT...A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS HAVE STARTED
TO MORE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RETURNS
ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. THINK WE WILL GET SOME
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND EVENTUALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER
TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED POPS GOING OVERNIGHT STARTING
IN THE WEST AND TRANSITIONING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS PROGRESSIVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
THU. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO OVER AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AS
CROSS SECTION INDICATES MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. BIS SOUNDING
INDICATED MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WAS MOVING IN BETWEEN 750 AND 550
HPA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FOLLOW ON THU.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AROUND 84 HOURS AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF AK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE THU. NAM AND GFS
SHOWALTERS BECOME QUITE NEGATIVE FOR THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS
MUCH LESS NEGATIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN
PLACE THU AFTERNOON WILL CAP ATMOSPHERE PRE-FRONTALLY. 700 HPA TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C. MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE WED NIGHT AND BEGIN TO CAP
ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR POST FRONTAL WITH
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THU NIGHT. WILL ADD SEVERE WORDING FOR
THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH A DRY WEEKEND EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE A SW FLOW ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH A MORE
WIDEPSREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH CIGS
AROUND 8000 FT AND ABOVE FOR THE MOST PART. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IMPACTING KFAR AND KDVL WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AND
SHOULD BE NEAR KGFK AND KTVF BY EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KBJI AFTER SUNRISE BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING TO ABOVE 10 KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT BVO...WITH OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT
FYV/XNA/ROG AS WELL. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE
OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING IMPACTING THE NW AR TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST. IT
HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS DRASTIC AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. WITH INSTABILITY BEING
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WOULD
EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS THEY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND QPF FORECAST TO FOCUS
HIGHER POPS AND FORECAST RAINFALL ALONG INTERSTATE 40...AND LOWER
THEM SOME IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR. A FEW AREAS OF IFR
AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
SOUTH OF I-44 AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FAIRLY COMMON AS SOME TRAINING OF CELLS HAS BEEN NOTED. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS AREA TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND A FEW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES PROBABLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SW KANSAS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THESE COULD MAKE A
RUN AT NE OKLAHOMA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT DECREASING
TREND HERE AS WELL WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT THROUGH THE
MORNING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH TODAY AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS AGAIN
TONIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY ACROSS KS/MO. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BRUSH FAR NE OKLAHOMA AND
NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
AFTER TONIGHT THE HEAT WILL BE ON ONCE AGAIN AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 105 IN SOME AREAS BY THURSDAY
AND MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS
WORKING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY RESULTING IN SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
938 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST. IT
HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS DRASTIC AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. WITH INSTABILITY BEING
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WOULD
EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS THEY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND QPF FORECAST TO FOCUS
HIGHER POPS AND FORECAST RAINFALL ALONG INTERSTATE 40...AND LOWER
THEM SOME IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR. A FEW AREAS OF IFR
AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
SOUTH OF I-44 AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FAIRLY COMMON AS SOME TRAINING OF CELLS HAS BEEN NOTED. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS AREA TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND A FEW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES PROBABLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SW KANSAS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THESE COULD MAKE A
RUN AT NE OKLAHOMA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT DECREASING
TREND HERE AS WELL WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT THROUGH THE
MORNING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH TODAY AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS AGAIN
TONIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY ACROSS KS/MO. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BRUSH FAR NE OKLAHOMA AND
NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
AFTER TONIGHT THE HEAT WILL BE ON ONCE AGAIN AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 105 IN SOME AREAS BY THURSDAY
AND MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS
WORKING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY RESULTING IN SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
753 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL USHER IN COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT A BROKEN LINE OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NOW STRETCHES FROM LONG ISLAND TO CENTRAL VA.
LLVL RIDGING AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT WILL LEAD TO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PRACTICALLY ALL
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...COMPLETE WITH REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR.
THE LONE...SMALL FRUIT FLY IN THE OINTMENT COMES IN THE FORM OF A
WELL-DEFINED/BUT RATHER COMPACT MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KT 300 MB JETLET...THAT WAS FOCUSED OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT 08Z. THIS SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY AND
UVVEL WILL SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY TODAY. SOME BKN-OVC
HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SPRINKLES OR EVEN A BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR NW CWA. LATEST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THIS SPOTTY AND VERY MINOR QPF
POTENTIAL.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL SET UP
RESIDENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PATTERN OVER NOAM SHIFTS FROM
THE UNPLEASANTLY HUMID/WET WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW PW WILL SPELL A GEM OF A DAY
TODAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND NWRLY UPPER FLOW
ACROSS PENN DELIVERS A MORE REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR TO THE
REGION...GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE RECENT 8 WEEKS OF FREQUENTLY
HUMID AND WET WEATHER.
A NW BREEZE...FRESHENING TO 8-12 KTS /WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS/ WILL COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...AND MAX TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST /JUST A
FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN PENN TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES /AND JUST A LIGHT NW BREEZE EARLY
TONIGHT/.
AN EVEN COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP...WITH MINS EARLY THURSDAY RANGING
FROM THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND COLD SPOTS THROUGHOUT
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TO THE U50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COOL AIR TEMPS AND WARM WATER TEMPS MAY YIELD SOME PATCHY 2SM
RIVER VALLEY FOG UP NORTH BETWEEN 08-12Z THUR.
ANOTHER SPLENDID MID SUMMER DAY FOR THURSDAY...UNDER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST 1-3
DEG F SHY OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1016-1018 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE PA/OHIO BORDER
TO START THE PERIOD...WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER WITH MAINLY LIGHT WIND...CONTINUED COMFORTABLY LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MAINLY AFTER
00Z SUNDAY...AS LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING SHEAR
DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WENT DRY FOR TUE...AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS SE. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO GENERATE A MID DECK AS IT SLIPS
EASTWARD...WITH BRIEF VFR CIG LIKELY AT KIPT RIGHT AROUND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...FEW CLOUDS TODAY AS WE ENTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL EXTEND INTO
SAT.
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 10
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL A.M. FOG POSS NORTH.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...CHC SHRA/TSTM. MVFR CIGS POSS NW.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
437 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL USHER IN COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT A BROKEN LINE OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NOW STRETCHES FROM LONG ISLAND TO CENTRAL VA.
LLVL RIDGING AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT WILL LEAD TO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PRACTICALLY ALL
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...COMPLETE WITH REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR.
THE LONE...SMALL FRUIT FLY IN THE OINTMENT COMES IN THE FORM OF A
WELL-DEFINED/BUT RATHER COMPACT MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KT 300 MB JETLET...THAT WAS FOCUSED OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT 08Z. THIS SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY AND
UVVEL WILL SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY TODAY. SOME BKN-OVC
HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SPRINKLES OR EVEN A BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR NW CWA. LATEST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THIS SPOTTY AND VERY MINOR QPF
POTENTIAL.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL SET UP
RESIDENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PATTERN OVER NOAM SHIFTS FROM
THE UNPLEASANTLY HUMID/WET WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW PW WILL SPELL A GEM OF A DAY
TODAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND NWRLY UPPER FLOW
ACROSS PENN DELIVERS A MORE REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR TO THE
REGION...GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE RECENT 8 WEEKS OF FREQUENTLY
HUMID AND WET WEATHER.
A NW BREEZE...FRESHENING TO 8-12 KTS /WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS/ WILL COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...AND MAX TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST /JUST A
FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN PENN TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES /AND JUST A LIGHT NW BREEZE EARLY
TONIGHT/.
AN EVEN COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP...WITH MINS EARLY THURSDAY RANGING
FROM THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND COLD SPOTS THROUGHOUT
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TO THE U50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COOL AIR TEMPS AND WARM WATER TEMPS MAY YIELD SOME PATCHY 2SM
RIVER VALLEY FOG UP NORTH BETWEEN 08-12Z THUR.
ANOTHER SPLENDID MID SUMMER DAY FOR THURSDAY...UNDER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST 1-3
DEG F SHY OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1016-1018 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE PA/OHIO BORDER
TO START THE PERIOD...WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER WITH MAINLY LIGHT WIND...CONTINUED COMFORTABLY LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MAINLY AFTER
00Z SUNDAY...AS LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING SHEAR
DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WENT DRY FOR TUE...AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS SE. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID CLOUD DECK SLIDING OFF LAKE ERIE INTO WESTERN NY STATE AS COOL
POOL ALOFT EVEN GENERATES A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. PROB REMAINS REMOTE
THAT ONE OF THESE WILL SNEAK TOWARDS KBFD. ELSEWHERE...
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND LATEST FRONTAL
PASSAGE /TUE AFT AND EVE/ MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL
EXTEND INTO SAT.
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 10
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL A.M. FOG POSS NORTH.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...CHC SHRA/TSTM. MVFR CIGS POSS NW.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTA
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A TROF/DRY
LINE EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGED FROM THE MID 80S OVER THE
BLACK HILLS TO THE UPPER 90S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE DRY LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE DRY LINE SHIFTS
EAST...ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE WESTERN TROF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES THOUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR IS WEAK...VALUES OF
15KTS OR LESS AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY WITH
RESPECT TO POPS TONIGHT WITH RAP SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS...HRRR
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SDSMT WRF INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE HILLS. DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
ON FRIDAY...BROAD RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTERLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE
DAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
SUBTLE WAVES BRINGING DAILY ISOLATED STORMS TO DIFFERING PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PAC
COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECM SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS WILL STILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
GUSTY WINDS AND LCL MVFR VSBY WITH THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
936 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT MIDEVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
AR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED MID AND UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST AR AND
SOUTHEAST MO...WHICH WAS FEEDING SCATTERED STORMS DROPPING SOUTH.
THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AT
930 PM.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES WARRANT CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A
WYNNE ARKANSAS TO A CORINTH MISSISSIPPI LINE. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
REMAIN A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 3-4Z. THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
AFTER 4Z...THE HRRR SHOWS CONDITIONS MAY BE TRANQUIL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. WILL LEAVE SMALL
POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MS-TN BORDER JUST IN CASE
THERE IS A LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY STILL IN PLACE...HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL BECOME NECESSARY BY THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS. WILL LEAVE THE FINAL HEAT ADVISORY CALL TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. ONCE THE HEAT ADVISORIES BEGIN THEY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURING ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FOG IS MOST LIKELY NEAR MEM...MKL...AND TUP AS WINDS WILL GO
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MVFR VISBYS..WITH A CHANCE OF IFR
NEAR MKL.
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 24/14Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 5
KTS FROM NW AFTER 24/18Z. MORE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
TUP IN THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
652 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A
WYNNE ARKANSAS TO A CORINTH MISSISSIPPI LINE. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
REMAIN A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 3-4Z. THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
AFTER 4Z...THE HRRR SHOWS CONDITIONS MAY BE TRANQUIL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. WILL LEAVE SMALL
POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MS-TN BORDER JUST IN CASE
THERE IS A LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY STILL IN PLACE...HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL BECOME NECESSARY BY THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS. WILL LEAVE THE FINAL HEAT ADVISORY CALL TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. ONCE THE HEAT ADVISORIES BEGIN THEY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURING ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FOG IS MOST LIKELY NEAR MEM...MKL...AND TUP AS WINDS WILL GO
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MVFR VISBYS..WITH A CHANCE OF IFR
NEAR MKL.
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 24/14Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 5
KTS FROM NW AFTER 24/18Z. MORE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
TUP IN THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CWA. -RA WILL AFFECT BNA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CSV WILL LIKELY SEE SOME -RA AS WELL
THIS AFTERNOON. CKV COULD ESCAPE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON DRY
ALTHOUGH HRRR IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD CKV THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN MID LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF LATER RAIN SO ADDRESSED IT WITH
VCSH. BR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE PARTICULARLY AT CSV TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
LIGHT SW WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH
NASHVILLE METRO. AN MCV CAN BE NOTED ON RADAR AS WELL AS THE VIS
SATELLITE CENTERED OVER HICKMAN COUNTY. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. BUMPED UP POPS EAST OF NASHVILLE. ACTIVITY IN MEG`S CWA
IS ON THE DOWNSWING. AFTER CURRENT ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SPC 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAD THE SW
THIRD OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUST. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY THAT CAN OCCUR BUT
IF A STRONG STORM DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE AL BORDER
IN VICINITY OF WEAK QUASI STATIONARY FRONT.
REAGAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 72 86 71 91 / 50 60 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 70 85 70 90 / 40 60 20 20
CROSSVILLE 68 80 67 84 / 30 60 20 10
COLUMBIA 71 88 70 91 / 40 60 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 71 88 71 92 / 30 60 40 30
WAVERLY 70 86 70 90 / 50 60 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF A T-STORM IN THE VICINITY OF ANY OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 11 OR 12 UTC...THEN AT KLBB AND KPVW
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
UPDATE...
T-STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS PRETTY MUCH BEEN LIMITED TO THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ARCING NEWD FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO
NORTH TEXAS/RED RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE STORMS MOVING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO HAVE DIED OFF IN THE FACE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES/WEAKER INSTABILITY AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
A SHORTWAVE BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. KAMA 00 UTC SOUNDING
SHOWED A PRETTY STOUT INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. DESPITE THIS...WE
CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SOME
WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD. WE
HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 07 OR 08 UTC. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME OR AREA
SO WE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A CONCERN AT SOME TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
WEST TEXAS...THIS TIME WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT IF
THE FORECAST PANS OUT AS EXPECTED. MODELS PRE-12Z WERE VERY
SKEPTICAL AND DIFFERED GREATLY ON WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION WOULD
OCCUR LATER TODAY. WHILE SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN...MOST MODELS
MINUS THE HRRR HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM
SEEMED TO HAVE AT FIRST GLANCE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AS IT
PICKED UP ON AN AREA OF LIFT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM WHICH STARTED
TO SHOW UP ON WV JUST AFTER 13Z. THE AREA OF LIFT HAS SINCE
ENHANCED FURTHER AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTWARD
PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF RUIDOSO NM. THESE STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS A WESTWARD PROPAGATING
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA. HIGHER RES
MODELS...EVEN THE HRRR TO AN EXTENT...HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MLCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONS SURFACE HEATING
CAN BE ACHIEVED AS TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED INTO MID DAY. THE MAIN
THREAT...AS IS USUALLY OUT HERE IN THESE PARTS...FROM CONVECTION
WOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNBURSTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A VALID THREAT AS WAS
SEEN YESTERDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND
STABILIZES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION MAKING
WAY FOR HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WHICH WILL GREATLY DECREASE STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE FA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TONIGHT WHICH COULD COOL TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FOR NOW
MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FLEETING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. HEIGHT
RISES WILL LIKELY SQUASH ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY. AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITHIN SURFACE TROUGHING
WELL WEST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CHANCE BUT VERY LITTLE OF
ANY STORMS BEING ABLE TO CROSS STATE LINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS WARM BIAS ON MAX
TEMPERATURES AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST BELOW MOS...CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 90 67 94 / 30 20 20 20
TULIA 66 92 69 95 / 30 10 20 10
PLAINVIEW 68 91 70 94 / 20 10 20 0
LEVELLAND 68 93 71 95 / 20 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 72 94 72 97 / 20 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 69 94 70 95 / 30 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 69 94 71 96 / 20 20 20 0
CHILDRESS 73 98 75 101 / 20 10 10 0
SPUR 70 94 73 96 / 20 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 73 98 76 101 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1107 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD. TSTMS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA...AND REDEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY THE REST
OF TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE
RETAINED A SCT MVFR LAYER FROM PREVIOUS FCST. ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...IF STORMS FORM...COVERAGE
SHOULD BE SPARSE. THEREFORE...HAVE OMITTED THAT ELEMENT FROM THIS
FCST CYCLE.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS REST OF TONIGHT AS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS
OCCURRED THIS EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOT
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT
TSTMS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER KGUY OR KDHT WILL
BE IMPACTED SO HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS ELEMENT FROM THIS FCST CYCLE.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING FOR PSBL AMENDMENTS. SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE KEPT A SCT
MVFR DECK FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
TONIGHT AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE SATURATED FROM LAST NIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITH VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A MARKED DECREASE IN MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THAT THROUGHOUT
THE LOW LEVELS. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS KEPT THE AREA FROM
DESTABILIZATION AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS YESTERDAY AND ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAS YIELDED A FAIRLY UNIFORM CUMULUS
FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION IN NEW MEXICO HAS FORMED BUT OVERALL EXPANSIVENESS IS FAR
LESS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP PV
ANALYSIS SHOW ONE WAVE TRAVERSING THE PANHANDLES NOW WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TONIGHT GIVEN TRENDS.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AGAIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BRB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
904 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...STALL...AND BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE FADED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY A WEAK LEFTOVER CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NW
NC FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS INTO SW VA KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
THERE. OTRW SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH TO
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DARTS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT PER VAPOR LOOP SPILLING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SHOWER CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE FOG AND POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITHIN THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS
ALREADY SEEN OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS. EXPECT AREAS ACROSS NW NC TO
SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WHILE CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO FILL IN
ELSW UNTIL LATE SO DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE LOW DECK SOMEWHAT.
WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS SOUTH/SW A FEW MORE HOURS GIVEN
REMAINING WEAK INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH THINK THE HRRR IDEA OF MORE
SHOWERS SW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS OVERDONE GIVEN DRYING
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. OTRW KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME
50S LIKELY NW PER DRIER DEWPOINTS/CLEARING WHILE CLOSER TO 70 SE
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN KY/TN. A GENEROUS GROUPING OF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS IS TO OUR SOUTH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY IN KY/TN WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA AROUND 400 PM. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...IT WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LESS THE
FARTHER EAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER NORTH...YOU ARE WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA.
BY MIDNIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
WITHOUT RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST.
ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND HELP ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MAY
YIELD SOME AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF US THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. MORE OF A WEAK SE FLOW TO TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY...TO ALLOW
FOR MORE SHOWER OR TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE WESTERLY. NOT A HIGH THREAT OF ANY PRECIP...SO KEPT
POPS VERY LOW.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING AGAIN
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY TO MID TO UPPER 80S PIEDMONT...THEN SUNDAY LOW-MID 80S
MTNS...TO UPPER 80S/90 PIEDMONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME 50S DEEPER
VALLEYS SAT MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA/NRN PLAINS THAT ALLOWS FOR SOME RETROGRADING OF
THIS HIGH BY THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
ARRIVE GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS PERIOD DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NNW FLOW ALOFT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHTS MAX OUT WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS.
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO 60S MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST. HIGHS FROM LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST...WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF LATE JULY NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THICKER CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A
PERIOD OF CLEARING AND CONTINUED VFR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE SE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHEAST TO EAST TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL ALLOW A FETCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO TAKE SHAPE LATER TONIGHT UNDER AN INVERSION ALOFT WITH
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING ABOVE. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL THIS LEAD TO
MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING IFR/MVFR CIGS
OR GIVEN LACK OF MUCH RAIN TODAY JUST PRODUCE MORE FOG WITH LOWER
CIGS SOUTH/SW OF THE TAF SITES WHERE EARLIER HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OCCURRED. LATEST NAM AS USUAL REMAINS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC IN
DROPPING MOST LOCATIONS ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST INTO IFR OR WORSE
BY DAYBREAK WHILE MOST OTHERS HAVE SOME LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR
FOG/STRATUS UNDER SCTD-BKN STRATO-CU AND AC. THINK GIVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS ATTM THAT WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SLOWER TO EVOLVE AT
MOST TAF LOCATIONS SO SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF LOWER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF IFR/MVFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF FRIDAY WHICH COULD STILL BE OVERDONE.
THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY AND YIELD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCTD-BKN 4-6K FT CU TO THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOKS LESS
LIKELY FRIDAY AT THE TAF SITES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WOULD EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITHIN THE RIDGE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WARM FRONT. RADAR
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE HI-RES HRRR RUNS ARE
FAIRLY ON POINT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THEREFORE WILL PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CWA WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD WANE QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN
GOES DOWN.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS THE CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. DESPITE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...THE NWP MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE MEMBERS AND FROM RUN TO RUN WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS RISING TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
500 MB ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
WESTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS A TAD BIT FASTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATED 1500 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE. WIND SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS NOTED ON THE MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN IS WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIALS LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR ALOFT LEAVES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS
WOULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHING
THE AREA...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRB TO AUW AFTER 20 OR 21 UTC THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SPOTTY AND OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE...IT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVLOPING ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AFTER 09Z.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF BR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOX
VALLEY AND EASTCENTRAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SCT-BKN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER COMING UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WILL DRIFT EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE
AREA...THERE IS SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE 21.12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT THAT FAVORABLE
FOR FOG FORMATION. IT SUGGESTS IT WILL COME CLOSE TO SATURATION AT
THE SURFACE BUT THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT ABOVE THAT AS THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE 21.17Z RAP IS EVEN LESS ENTHUSED AS IT SHOWS A 3C
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 11Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INTRODUCED
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AND LOWS OF 60 TO 65 BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL COME IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME
OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND MOVE EAST INTO THE
RIDGE AXIS. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND
GEM ON HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THE
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN THE
FLATTEST RIDGE AND THE STRONGEST WAVE COMING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WAVE THE GFS BRINGS THROUGH HAS THE LOOK OF POSSIBLY BEING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GEM IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE SYSTEM
AND KEEPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GEM THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF HAS STARTED TO BACK OFF FROM THE 21.00Z RUN ON THE AMOUNT
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. BASED ON THIS TREND...CAPPED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GRIDS AT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...WHICH MAINTAINS
PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT SHOWS AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPING TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG OVERNIGHT. THE 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY WEAK IN
THE EVENING BUT COULD INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD
COME ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THEN THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO POTENTIALLY COME THROUGH RIDGE COULD BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
A SFC HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE REGION INTO
THU...ALTHOUGH A FEW MID/LEVEL CLOUDS COULD SPILL ACROSS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON WED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THAT SAID...WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND A LIGHT SFC WIND VALLEY FOG
HAS TO BE CONSIDERED. KLSE BUFKIT RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP
LIGHT WIND FIELD IN EXCESS OF 8 KFT...BUT KEEP A HEALTHY T/TD
SPREAD. NAM12 SIMILAR BUT BRINGS SFC T/TD TOGETHER BY 12Z. EXPECT
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG...BUT HOW WIDESPREAD IN THE MISSISSIPPI IS IN
QUESTION.
03Z T/TD SPREAD AT KLSE WAS 9 F...NOT FAVORABLE FOR 1/4SM FG MAKING
IT TO THE AIRPORT. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT THOUGH. WILL KEEP BCFG AND
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE IF THE FOG THREAT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY.
THU MORNING ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
WHICH COULD IMPACT KLSE. THE SFC HIGH IS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER PERSISTS. LINGERING HIGH
CLOUDS COULD BE A DETERRENT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
231 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR DEPICTING LAST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON WATER
VAPOR OVER MOST OF COLORADO IS INCHING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER. SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON AREA RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE
WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN RANGES TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
SURFACE BASED CAPE OFF THE MESOANALYST PAGE SHOWING RIGHT AROUND
500 J/KG WHERE THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING...SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE TSTMS FROM THESE. BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING 1500-2500 J/KG AT 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE NEAR 60 FOR
ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OUT THAT WAY.
LATEST HRRR FORECAST RADAR SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAKING IT INTO THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 00Z. CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS
FOR THIS EVENING OUT THAT WAY. SHEAR OUT THAT WAY ALMOST
NONEXISTENT...WITH LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...SO THINK THE MORE
PROMINENT HAZARD WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN. ATTENTION TURNS TO ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS FORECASTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA...TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THURSDAY. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE WIND PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AS A
RESULT...WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT ACROSS CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES. GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL MIX UP TO AT LEAST 580MBS OUT THAT WAY.
NAM WINDS UP AROUND THAT LEVEL FORECAST AT 35-40KTS...SO CARBON
AND ALBANY COUNTIES COULD BE SEEING WINDS GUSTING TO 40MPH OR
MORE. FORTUNATELY...FUELS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED AS NOT READY
FOR MOST FIRE ZONES...SO RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS EASE SOME FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA CANADA AND EASTWARD. LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +16C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DID GO OVER GUIDANCE ON HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS WILL
MEANDER OVER THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CWA WILL
RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WITH WARM AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERALL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES SHOULD ROTATE OVER THE HIGH
AND MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION TO PARTS OF THE CWA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN CUT
OFF FOR THE MOST PART. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHOULD DRIVE
A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS LOWERING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR EXPECTED OVERALL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE WDLY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SE WY MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
A DRIER AND MORE WINDY PERIOD AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA THURSDAY WILL AID IN INCREASING
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
THESE WINDS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 PERCENT BOTH
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1125 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
LATEST HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING OUT INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED OVERHEAD
YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO 500 MB FLOW THERE IS STILL GOOD
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING PEAK
HEATING AND PW VALUES ARE 0.75 TO 1 INCH. THUS...EXPECTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. CAPE IS RATHER MEAGER...SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION STRUGGLING AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND 700 MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO 14C.
MORE WARMING WITH OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING.
PW VALUES DROP TO BELOW 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE MOST NOTABLY TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
AFTN OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. THE
BREEZY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE. FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 304 CURRENTLY HAS FUELS READY...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS ZONE FOR A POTENTIAL RED FLAG HIGHLIGHT. RH VALUES
ARE MARGINAL RIGHT NOW THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
THURSDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 17C. BY FRIDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING. THE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN SOME OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE SCARCE DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE IT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT PER THE GFS.
COMPROMISED WITH 15 TO 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHADRON
TO KIMBALL LINE SUNDAY EVENING. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO 95. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...COOLING
SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT TUESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR EXPECTED OVERALL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE WDLY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SE WY MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO
20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 TO 30
MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SOME BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1041 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
LATEST HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING OUT INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED OVERHEAD
YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO 500 MB FLOW THERE IS STILL GOOD
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING PEAK
HEATING AND PW VALUES ARE 0.75 TO 1 INCH. THUS...EXPECTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. CAPE IS RATHER MEAGER...SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION STRUGGLING AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND 700 MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO 14C.
MORE WARMING WITH OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING.
PW VALUES DROP TO BELOW 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE MOST NOTABLY TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
AFTN OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. THE
BREEZY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE. FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 304 CURRENTLY HAS FUELS READY...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS ZONE FOR A POTENTIAL RED FLAG HIGHLIGHT. RH VALUES
ARE MARGINAL RIGHT NOW THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
THURSDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 17C. BY FRIDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING. THE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN SOME OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE SCARCE DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE IT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT PER THE GFS.
COMPROMISED WITH 15 TO 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHADRON
TO KIMBALL LINE SUNDAY EVENING. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO 95. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...COOLING
SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT TUESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CYS TO
SNY ROUTE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR/SREF. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE
RWL TO CYS ROUTE. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO
20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 TO 30
MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SOME BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PORTION F THE FORECAST IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. IN GENERAL, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS, WILL DRIFT SOUTH, TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA DRIFTING AROUND THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND, HAS A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER NORTH FLORIDA, AND
DEEPENING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHILE GENERALLY OVER LAND.
WHILE THE GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME, EITHER WILL MEAN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
MORE BASED ON THE WIND, WHICH WILL INDICATE THE AREAS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST, PUSHING MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, GENERALLY
PUSHING THE CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA,
ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL AREAS STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
FOR TODAY, GIVEN THE WEST FLOW, THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREA OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SEE THE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NAM MODELS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MBE VECTORS FOR THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, THIS COULD MEAN URBAN TYPE FLOODING, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS, WHICH HAVE POOR
DRAINAGE. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING WAS RIGHT
AROUND 16K FT. ALSO, THE 500MB TEMP WAS RIGHT AROUND -7C. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR HAIL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE NCAPE TO BE AROUND .15. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THERE WILL A
MIX OF PULSE TYPE STORMS AND SOME CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. IT IS THOSE LONGER LASTING CELLS
THAT MAY HAVE SOME CHANCE AT PRODUCING EVEN SMALL HAIL, ALTHOUGH
IT WOULD BE A SLIM CHANCE. VERY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE 0-3KM BEING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM.
ABOVE THIS, THE LAPSE RATES DROP, WITH THE 3-6KM LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 C/KM. THESE WOULD BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIE
OF YEAR. THERE IS ALSO A BROAD 500MB TROUGH SITTING OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. SO, CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINING
AREAS, INCLUDING THE GULF COAST. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY HEAVY
RAIN, WITH LIGHTENING, AND POSSIBLY SOME WET DOWNBURSTS.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING, AND PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE WESTERN LAKE REGION SEEING THE
CONVECTION FIRST. IT THEN SHOWS THE COASTAL REGIONS SEEING
CONVECTION AROUND 19Z. OF COURSE THIS TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS THE MODEL UPDATES, BUT IT GIVES A
GENERAL IDEA OF HOW THE DAY MAY UNFOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SCT TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 16Z AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST SO PLACED VCTS FOR ALL THOSE TERMINALS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY MAINLY BTWN 18-22Z. THE
WESTERLY WIND WILL ALSO PREVENT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP WHICH MAY ALSO LIMIT CONVERGENCE SO ANOTHER REASON FOR
ONLY MENTION OF VCTS AT THIS TIME.
KOB
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
1-2 FT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 94 76 88 75 / 50 30 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 78 92 76 / 50 20 50 20
MIAMI 94 79 91 76 / 50 20 40 20
NAPLES 90 81 85 78 / 30 50 60 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015/
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED. UPDATED THE POPS EARLIER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR
AND HRRR TRENDS. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.
ALSO...UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING SE. THIS WAVE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST
BY 06-12Z FRI. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE STATE FRIDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA FRI. TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA
FRI WITH SOME 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
01
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT EXTENDED PORTION IN GREAT SHAPE AS MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA
INITIALLY LEAVING OUR LOCAL AREA MUCH DRIER THAN CLIMO FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CONSEQUENTLY POPS FOR SUN ARE QUITE LOW WITH NIL
POPS FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ONLY SMALL POCKETS
OF ISOLATED. AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE UPPER HIGH
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE MON AND TUE TIMEFRAME BUT AGAIN OVERALL
GRIDS LOOKS IN GREAT SHAPE.
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE LEAVES THE AREA IN BETWEEN MAJOR
WEATHER SYSTEMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT RESIDUAL HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT SUGGESTS HIGH END CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ALSO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES FOR THE CENTRAL
GEORGIA PORTION.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREAS OF IFR OVER THE ATL/CSG AREAS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE
AHN/MCN AREAS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSRA WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE CSG/MCN AREAS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30
FROM 18Z TO 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST IN THE AHN BY EVENING...AND THE ATL AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON DURATION OF CIGS THIS MORNING
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 71 91 71 / 30 30 20 5
ATLANTA 90 72 91 73 / 30 30 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 85 65 86 63 / 30 30 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 91 71 91 70 / 30 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 95 75 96 74 / 40 40 20 10
GAINESVILLE 89 70 89 72 / 30 30 20 10
MACON 95 73 95 71 / 50 40 20 10
ROME 93 70 93 70 / 30 30 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 91 71 92 71 / 30 30 20 10
VIDALIA 93 74 93 73 / 70 60 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 60S. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN INTO GREAT LAKES REGION IN NW
FLOW AND VIS SAT SHOWING EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION RESULTING IN PLEASANT SEASONABLE
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL TREND OUR AREA TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND
GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015
COLD FRONT...TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTENING A SOUTH-CENTRAL US
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL WEAKEN SSE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING LIKELY PASSES NORTH
AND WANES BY PEAK HEATING...THOUGH FOLD OVER OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE AND NEAR 70F SFC DEWPOINTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE MAIN FRONT OR LEADING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BY MID AFTN-EARLY EVE. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS FOR 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
MID LEVEL JET WORKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LOOKS TO STALL JUST
SSW OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WEAK
WNW FLOW WILL HELP FOCUS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS FEATURE. THIS PLACES AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THE US
30 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA FOR BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING NE INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF RENEWED WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER
HUMIDITY/WARMER TEMPS TO BUILD IN BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT
DRIVES THROUGH BY LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT/CALM WINDS TO THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY ALLOWING A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT ANY LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE AND NOT AFFECT KSBN GIVEN SOME
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWEST GRADIENT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU BASED BETWEEN 4-5K FT DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN. SFC HIGH SHOULD SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW
FOR SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST INDIANA JUST
AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY FOR TERMINALS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LOGSDON
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IT WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE DAY TODAY. ALOFT THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD SOME BUT WILL HAVE
BETTER SUCCESS TO THE WEST LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
STATE BUT WILL ONLY BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO THIRDS BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS WILL BRING THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA WITH
BORDERLINE INDICES OF AROUND 105. THE CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THIS
HANDLED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT ADVISORY.
AS FOR PRECIP...HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
PRECIP TRENDS. THE HRRR IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ON POP TRENDS. THE
NAM12 AND NAMDNG HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL SO I TRIED TO KEEP
TRENDS TIED TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE IN MINNESOTA HAS EEKED INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE CONVECTION WILL
TRAVEL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DOES
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER
SUNRISE AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY I FELT IT WARRANTED TO AT
LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CHANCES.
BY AFTERNOON CAPES SKYROCKET TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 J/KG SO THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AROUND. AFTER THIS
MORNING...SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF HOWEVER AND DEEP SHEAR IS NOT
PRESENT. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR APPEAR TO BE
NORTH AND EAST EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTHWEST.
STILL...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. I THINK THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
CONVECTION WILL BE EXPANDING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
OVERALL FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT
WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR TO HELP WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE WEAK CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MAIN THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 12KFT OR SO
WILL HELP RAINFALL EFFICIENCIES OVERNIGHT.
SOME REMAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A RESPITE FROM CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SKIRTING NORTHERN IOWA. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ROBUST IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGES UPON THE BOUNDARY
AT PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
MODEST SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED WITH
NEARBY BOUNDARY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HYDRO ISSUE BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN WITH RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING THE SOILS TO
MOISTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. SHOULD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIFT CONVECTION TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS BY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CAPPING AND HOT/HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THIS AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS IOWA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY
MIDWEEK ALONG WITH THE NEXT BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE STATE. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY IN FAR NORTHERN IOWA
WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY BUT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GUTHRIE-RINGGOLD-
SAC-TAYLOR-UNION.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS
AT AROUND 6-8 KFT...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ACB
AND GOV IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL ELUDE TO SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU 12Z.
WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO...PUTTING US
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE (850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING PAST PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK OF JUST GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWOODS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
(7/25)SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 12Z AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA, 21Z-ISH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN BY 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS DOES THE 500 MB
RIDGE WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SQUASHES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE MODELS SET UP A "RING OF FIRE" SOUTH OF US.
(7/26)SUNDAY...THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND LOOKS TO DO THAT FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH SETS
UP THE NEXT FEW DRY DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" JULY PATTERN
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK. HERE ARE THE DETAILS... THE HIGH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OVERNIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY, EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SWITCH AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE OF LWR
MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON...PLANTING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT DRY WX THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED... THUS
WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AT PLN/TVC/MBL AFTER
03Z...AND AT APN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1126 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
THERE STILL MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING
WHERE THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN CLOSE TO THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. ONCE WE GET PAST
DAYTIME HEATING, THINK IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES IN FROM KANSAS SUPPLYING SOME SUBSIDENCE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE WRF AND RAP AREA NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR INSTABILITY THAT WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM MID EVENING ONWARD. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURES.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
PINNING DOWN THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AND INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY A BIT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH REMANTS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED BENEATH THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. SCENARIO ISN`T ONE THAT FAVORS A LOT IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION, BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE OZARKS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/OROGRAPHIC LIFT
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED CELLS.
CONCERN FOR CONVECTION INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND;
FIRST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO MIGRATE OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SUGGESTS A RING
OF FIRE PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
CONVECTION WILL GET INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
FIRST RIPPLE IN THE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WAA IS PROGGED TO COMMENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND ALL MODELS BEGIN TO HINT AT SOME PRECIP IN
OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH NAM AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS QPF. NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE CONVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL MORE
ROUNDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHILE GFS IS SLOWER WITH PRECIP
PUSHING INTO OUR AREA, AND FOCUSES IT SOUTHWARD SURGE OF QPF IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
OBVIOUSLY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC POP
TRENDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A MYRIAD OF ILL-DEFINED FEATURES
(EXTREMELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, SEVERAL BOUTS OF WEAK
NOCTURNAL JET FORCING, AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT TO
OUR NORTH THAT WILL BE BEAT SOUTH BY SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES)
THAT COULD PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA. AS
NOTED BY WFO EAX EARLIER TODAY...THIS UPCOMING PATTERN IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT THE CENTRAL CONUS EXPERIENCED ABOUT A WEEK AGO.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE PRETTY MUCH MAINTAINED GOING FORECAST
TRENDS WHICH INDICATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMPING UP INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. IN TRUTH, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS OF MUCH HIGHER
AND MUCH LOWER POPS, BUT THOSE ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE
WHEN SHORT-TERM TRENDS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR.
OTHER CONCERN IS INCREASING LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH THIS INCREASE WILL BE FELT
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW, PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE IN
THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME WHEN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WELL IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY TO HOW OPPRESSIVE IT
WILL BECOME, AND THIS WILL BE TIED TO AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND
CLOUDINESS THE AREA EXPERIENCES. IF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ARE AT A
MINIMUM, HEAT INDICIES OF 105 WILL BE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF MID
MISSOURI. AGAIN, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WITH THE
ABOVE PARAMETERS, SO WILL LET MID SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE
HOISTING ANY HEADLINES.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...ALONG WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SOME REMNANTS OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE
REGION. POPS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER BY MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE BREAKS
DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA.
TRUETT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
LIGHT EAST WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH LINGERING SC OVER KSUS
AND KCPS, FEEL THAT LITTLE OR NO FOG IS EXPECTED, SO LEFT MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
LIGHT EAST WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TODAYS CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE ECM AND HRRR-CR
MODELS. THE MCS WHICH WORKED THROUGH SWRN NEB AND NCNTL KS
THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A RAIN COOLED MESO HIGH WHICH WOULD FORCE
SOME THE VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR WEST TOWARD IMPERIAL AND THIS
PROCESS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AT 07Z. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WRN NEB WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE KS BORDER. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION
FORMING OVER NERN COLO THIS AFTN AND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE KS BORDER. THIS CONVECTION COULD MERGE TO FORM A MCS WHICH
WOULD TRACK EAST THROUGH SRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS ECM AND NAM ALSO SHOW PARTS OF NCNTL NEB DESTABILIZING
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEB.
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE WITH A
BELT OF 40 KT TO 50 KT 300MB WINDS OVERHEAD. SBCAPE IN THE ECM
RISES TO AROUND 3500J/KG. THE NAM SHOWS 4000+ SBCAPE AND NO CAP
ONCE AGAIN...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECM WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG I-80.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION COULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING OR MOVING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE KS BORDER
AND A 30KT 850MB JET OVER WRN KS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ACTIVE AND WARM WEEKEND. RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE
A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND THEN LIFT
TO S CENTRAL CANADA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL SEND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE OHIO/TENNESSE RVR
VALLEYS.
SATURDAY MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A SFC
LOW OVER WESTERN S DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PLAINS. VERY
HUMID AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH/SEMI DRY LINE WITH DEW PTS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. BEHIND THE TROUGH DEW PTS AROUND
60. MORNING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS
DEPARTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LINGER IN THE CWA. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS FOR
ACTIVITY TO FIRE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DECENT CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
GOOD SHEAR. SHOULD SEE SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIDE TO THE EAST HOWEVER WILL STILL
SEE A DRY LINE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DRY LINE COULD BE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MODELS NOT AS ACTIVE UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH
NOTICABLY COOLER TEMPS...MID 80S...HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE AND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS.
STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON
15000 FT AGL WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMING BROKEN
BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING. WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...OPTED FOR A PROB30 GROUP FROM 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY TO
HANDLE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH TO
STRASBURG. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS
THIS AREA BRANCHING OUT AND JUST GRAZING SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ALSO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 13Z-14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND CENTRAL IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL MINOR/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MONTANA...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAKENING INTO MORE OR LESS A SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
WEAK CAPE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG. SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE GRIDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH
LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN -2C
TO -4C ACROSS THE SOUTH...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPS WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...INCREASES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AT KBIS/KJMS/KDIK AND KJMS
THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE BACKEDGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOW
EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ATTENTION TURNS TO PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS HIGHEST THREAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
CANCELLED BURLEIGH...MORTON...GRANT...SIOUX AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
WITH THIS UPDATE. OVERALL...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 240 UTC IS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW. THIS IS PLACING A LIMIT ON THE UTILIZATION OF THE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE. THAT SAID...THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND/OR IF ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SUFFICIENTLY DECOUPLES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE MAJORITY OF COUNTIES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 BEHIND THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 130 UTC. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...AND THE 23-00 UTC HRRR...A CONTINUED CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION INTO A LINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE JAMES AND INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4500
J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LOW
LEVEL JET ONSET. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES...TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT SHOULD A LINE
FORM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 AT THIS TIME.
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2345 UTC BLENDED TO A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF
THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
AND WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 739 FOR STORM THREAT
AND EVOLUTION DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST.
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA NOW WITH WINDS WEST OF THE FROPA ACROSS THE FAR WEST
OUT OF THE NORTH OR WEST. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE
VERY MOIST EAST OF THE FRONT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH MID 80S AND LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. CLOUD COVER
NORTHWEST WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH DAKOTA
ENABLING INSTABILITY UPWARDS TO 4-5K J/KG.
ROBUST CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN 19-21Z WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...THEN DEVELOP/MOVE EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. AS MODELS HAVE
PORTRAYED THE LAST FEW DAYS...BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY
DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE...BUT CATCHES UP LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
STILL...ENOUGH CAPE TO OVERCOME LACK OF SHEAR ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/WV. AS THE SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION INDICATED...DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO MCS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES TO THE
EAST RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS WHERE
AS HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT FIRST. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG TO EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW TOMORROW SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT FOR FRIDAY WILL BE LOW. STILL WARM BUT MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LIFTED
NORTHEAST...WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
MVFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL SPREAD SOUTH...WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VSBYS AT KBIS/KJMS/KDIK AND KJMS THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTA
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A TROF/DRY
LINE EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGED FROM THE MID 80S OVER THE
BLACK HILLS TO THE UPPER 90S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE DRY LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE DRY LINE SHIFTS
EAST...ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE WESTERN TROF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES THOUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR IS WEAK...VALUES OF
15KTS OR LESS AND CAPE IS MINIMAL. SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY WITH
RESPECT TO POPS TONIGHT WITH RAP SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS...HRRR
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SDSMT WRF INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE HILLS. DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
ON FRIDAY...BROAD RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTERLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE
DAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
SUBTLE WAVES BRINGING DAILY ISOLATED STORMS TO DIFFERING PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PAC
COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECM SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM. TEMPS WILL STILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LCL MVFR VSBY
AND GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1205 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/
UPDATE...
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AT MIDEVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
AR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED MID AND UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST AR AND
SOUTHEAST MO...WHICH WAS FEEDING SCATTERED STORMS DROPPING SOUTH.
THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AT
930 PM.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES WARRANT CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A
WYNNE ARKANSAS TO A CORINTH MISSISSIPPI LINE. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
REMAIN A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 3-4Z. THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
AFTER 4Z...THE HRRR SHOWS CONDITIONS MAY BE TRANQUIL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. WILL LEAVE SMALL
POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MS-TN BORDER JUST IN CASE
THERE IS A LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY STILL IN PLACE...HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL BECOME NECESSARY BY THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS. WILL LEAVE THE FINAL HEAT ADVISORY CALL TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. ONCE THE HEAT ADVISORIES BEGIN THEY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURING ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOPING AFTER 24/08Z DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FOG IS MOST LIKELY NEAR MEM...MKL...AND TUP AS WINDS WILL GO
NEARLY CALM BY EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR VISBYS..WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR NEAR MKL.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH DURING DAY...WITH MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR JBR...MEM...AND TUP. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY BEHIND BOUNDARY AFTER 24/18Z RANGING 6 TO 8 KTS.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
135 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...STALL...AND BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE FADED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY A WEAK LEFTOVER CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NW
NC FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS INTO SW VA KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
THERE. OTRW SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH TO
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DARTS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT PER VAPOR LOOP SPILLING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SHOWER CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE FOG AND POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITHIN THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AS
ALREADY SEEN OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS. EXPECT AREAS ACROSS NW NC TO
SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WHILE CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO FILL IN
ELSW UNTIL LATE SO DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE LOW DECK SOMEWHAT.
WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS SOUTH/SW A FEW MORE HOURS GIVEN
REMAINING WEAK INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH THINK THE HRRR IDEA OF MORE
SHOWERS SW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS OVERDONE GIVEN DRYING
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. OTRW KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WITH SOME
50S LIKELY NW PER DRIER DEWPOINTS/CLEARING WHILE CLOSER TO 70 SE
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN KY/TN. A GENEROUS GROUPING OF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS IS TO OUR SOUTH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY IN KY/TN WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA AROUND 400 PM. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...IT WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LESS THE
FARTHER EAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER NORTH...YOU ARE WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA.
BY MIDNIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
WITHOUT RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST.
ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND HELP ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MAY
YIELD SOME AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF US THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. MORE OF A WEAK SE FLOW TO TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY...TO ALLOW
FOR MORE SHOWER OR TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE WESTERLY. NOT A HIGH THREAT OF ANY PRECIP...SO KEPT
POPS VERY LOW.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING AGAIN
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY TO MID TO UPPER 80S PIEDMONT...THEN SUNDAY LOW-MID 80S
MTNS...TO UPPER 80S/90 PIEDMONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME 50S DEEPER
VALLEYS SAT MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA/NRN PLAINS THAT ALLOWS FOR SOME RETROGRADING OF
THIS HIGH BY THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
ARRIVE GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS PERIOD DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NNW FLOW ALOFT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHTS MAX OUT WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE ON UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS.
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO 60S MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST. HIGHS FROM LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST...WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF LATE JULY NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL FILL IN BEFORE 12Z/8AM AT KROA/KDAN AND KLYH. MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS TO FORMATION AND HEIGHT OF CLOUDS AT KLWB AND KBLF.
IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT FORM AT KLWB...GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP.
THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY AND YIELD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCTD-BKN 4-6K FT CU TO THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOKS LESS
LIKELY TODAY SO LEAVING OUT OF THE TAFS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL COVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE BUT
AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG.SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WOULD EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE SW AS
THE MONSOON REPOSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY ERODE THE DRYER MID LEVEL DECK THROUGH THE DAY ACCORDING TO
THE HRRR AND LATEST NAM THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME RAINSHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE METRO AREA. INCREASED POPS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS TREND.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
INHIBITING HEATING BUT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING CLOSE TO 1 INCH
BY 22Z BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAINSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK TODAY TO HIT
THE LOWER 90S SO DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGES FROM AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA TO 0.9 INCH AT PUEBLO. AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...THOUGH THERE IS BETTER
MOISTURE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THAT WILL KEEP IT FROM DRYING
TOO MUCH FURTHER EAST. WITH CONTINUED HOT AIR ALOFT...THE LOW
LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE CLOUD COVER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIMITED TODAY. EXPECT THAT MOST OF OUR ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL MOISTENING GENERATING WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE
BASED STORMS IN THE BETTER MOISTURE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
AGAIN...CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG STILL LIMITED BY THE WARMTH ALOFT
THOUGH SO NOT TOO MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS ACRS NERN
COLORADO EARLY ON SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE APPEARS TO
TEMPORARILY DIVERT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE FCST AREA ALLOWING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA. WARMING ALOFT TOGETHER WITH FALLING PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS T-STORM FORMATION EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD PROVIDE A
HEALTHY BOOST TO TEMPS ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING
ONLY TO SEE WARMING SLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SHIFT TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW. ITS THIS REVERSAL IN FLOW THAT WILL
CONCENTRATE LATE DAY CONVECTION ALBEIT LIMITED TO THE PALMER DVD
AND SRN FTHLS. GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING MOST LIKELY
MAIN PRODUCTS OF THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY TO BE 3-4DEG C ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS RIDGE IS FCST TO STRENGTH
WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DRIVES ANOTHER
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SRN
COLORADO BY MORNING AND OVER NERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY AND VERTICAL MOTION MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THICKENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODEST
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WHILE UPPER LEVELS MOISTEN...A
S-SWLY BNDRY LAYER FLOW APPEARS TO KEEP THE SUB-CLOUD/BNDRY LAYER
RELATIVELY DRY. EVEN SO...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED T-STORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL EXCEED AN
INCH. THERE/S A REMOTE CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS ON THE E-CNTRL
PLAINS...SUCH AS IN ERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPS OF SUNDAY
ONLY A DEG OR TWO COOLER EVEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE TALL UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS
PROGGED TO MIGRATE EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO
STRENGTHENS SOME ON MONDAY WHICH AIDS IN DRIVING A BIT MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP ACRS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WILL
BRUSH THE SERN CORNER OF THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LATE DAY T-STORMS. MONDAY TEMPS LIKELY TO BE THE
WARMEST READINGS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MID 90S ON THE
PLAINS...LOWER 80S IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND 60S/70S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH
RACING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND AS IT PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS NERN COLORADO EARLY THAT MORNING. WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY ARRIVING ABOUT 6 HRS LATER. THAT
SAID...THIS COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO
STABLE FOR STORMS ON THE PLAINS THAT DAY...BUT BY EVENING
MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHWRS/T-STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. LOOK FOR
TEMPS ON TUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS 3-4DEG C
BELOW AVERAGE. REST OF THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW A DRIER...MORE
STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH TEMPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE AROUND TO A NORTHERLY PUSH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING BACK SW AS FLOW INCREASES FROM THAT DIRECTION. ACCORDING
TO LATEST HRRR THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL START TO ERODE THAT
COULD INTRODUCE SOME RAINSHOWERS INTO THE AIRPORTS. DO NOT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BUT WILL UPDATE AT TAF TIME TO INCLUDE IN
A TEMPO GROUP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT GUSTING TO 25 WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
811 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.AVIATION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WERE IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THIS MORNING...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE
NEAR THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AND ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR BEST TIMING OF STORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. IN GENERAL, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS, WILL DRIFT SOUTH, TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA DRIFTING AROUND THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND, HAS A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER NORTH FLORIDA, AND
DEEPENING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHILE GENERALLY OVER LAND.
WHILE THE GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME, EITHER WILL MEAN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
MORE BASED ON THE WIND, WHICH WILL INDICATE THE AREAS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST, PUSHING MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, GENERALLY
PUSHING THE CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA,
ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL AREAS STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
FOR TODAY, GIVEN THE WEST FLOW, THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREA OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SEE THE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NAM MODELS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MBE VECTORS FOR THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, THIS COULD MEAN URBAN TYPE FLOODING, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS, WHICH HAVE POOR
DRAINAGE. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING WAS RIGHT
AROUND 16K FT. ALSO, THE 500MB TEMP WAS RIGHT AROUND -7C. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR HAIL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE NCAPE TO BE AROUND .15. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THERE WILL A
MIX OF PULSE TYPE STORMS AND SOME CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. IT IS THOSE LONGER LASTING CELLS
THAT MAY HAVE SOME CHANCE AT PRODUCING EVEN SMALL HAIL, ALTHOUGH
IT WOULD BE A SLIM CHANCE. VERY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE 0-3KM BEING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM.
ABOVE THIS, THE LAPSE RATES DROP, WITH THE 3-6KM LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 C/KM. THESE WOULD BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIE
OF YEAR. THERE IS ALSO A BROAD 500MB TROUGH SITTING OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. SO, CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINING
AREAS, INCLUDING THE GULF COAST. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY HEAVY
RAIN, WITH LIGHTENING, AND POSSIBLY SOME WET DOWNBURSTS.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING, AND PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE WESTERN LAKE REGION SEEING THE
CONVECTION FIRST. IT THEN SHOWS THE COASTAL REGIONS SEEING
CONVECTION AROUND 19Z. OF COURSE THIS TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS THE MODEL UPDATES, BUT IT GIVES A
GENERAL IDEA OF HOW THE DAY MAY UNFOLD.
AVIATION...
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SCT TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 16Z AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST SO PLACED VCTS FOR ALL THOSE TERMINALS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY MAINLY BTWN 18-22Z. THE
WESTERLY WIND WILL ALSO PREVENT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP WHICH MAY ALSO LIMIT CONVERGENCE SO ANOTHER REASON FOR
ONLY MENTION OF VCTS AT THIS TIME.
KOB
MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
1-2 FT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 76 91 75 / 70 30 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 78 92 77 / 70 30 50 40
MIAMI 92 78 92 78 / 70 20 40 30
NAPLES 91 80 86 80 / 30 60 70 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
852 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE HAS BECOME SHALLOW BEHIND A LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY DRY AIR
UPSTREAM. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE NEARNESS OF THE
FRONT SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE NAM INDICATES
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE CSRA WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5.
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A NORTH OR
NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS LOW. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOPING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SC/GA COAST SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST.
THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DISPLAY UPPER TROUGHING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME SURFACE
TROUGHING WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION WILL RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MOS HAS LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN IMPROVEMENT. LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WITH THE TIMING OF A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION SUPPORTS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE MOISTURE HAS BECOME SHALLOW BEHIND
A LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MAINLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. IF
THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO DEVELOP THEN DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AIDING
DOWNDRAFTS COULD SUPPORT STRONG WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG DEVELOPING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR
STRATUS OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IT WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE DAY TODAY. ALOFT THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD SOME BUT WILL HAVE
BETTER SUCCESS TO THE WEST LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
STATE BUT WILL ONLY BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO THIRDS BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS WILL BRING THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA WITH
BORDERLINE INDICES OF AROUND 105. THE CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THIS
HANDLED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT ADVISORY.
AS FOR PRECIP...HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
PRECIP TRENDS. THE HRRR IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ON POP TRENDS. THE
NAM12 AND NAMDNG HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL SO I TRIED TO KEEP
TRENDS TIED TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE IN MINNESOTA HAS EEKED INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE CONVECTION WILL
TRAVEL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DOES
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER
SUNRISE AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY I FELT IT WARRANTED TO AT
LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CHANCES.
BY AFTERNOON CAPES SKYROCKET TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 J/KG SO THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AROUND. AFTER THIS
MORNING...SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF HOWEVER AND DEEP SHEAR IS NOT
PRESENT. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR APPEAR TO BE
NORTH AND EAST EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTHWEST.
STILL...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. I THINK THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
CONVECTION WILL BE EXPANDING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
OVERALL FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT
WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR TO HELP WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE WEAK CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MAIN THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 12KFT OR SO
WILL HELP RAINFALL EFFICIENCIES OVERNIGHT.
SOME REMAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A RESPITE FROM CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SKIRTING NORTHERN IOWA. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ROBUST IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGES UPON THE BOUNDARY
AT PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
MODEST SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED WITH
NEARBY BOUNDARY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HYDRO ISSUE BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN WITH RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING THE SOILS TO
MOISTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. SHOULD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIFT CONVECTION TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS BY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CAPPING AND HOT/HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THIS AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS IOWA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY
MIDWEEK ALONG WITH THE NEXT BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO STATE LATER TODAY BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING WHERE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN VERY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMCW.
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT AND CONSOLIDATE OVERNIGHT INTO A COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN IOWA.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA NEAR THE STORMS
COMPLEX. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT EASES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GUTHRIE-RINGGOLD-
SAC-TAYLOR-UNION.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN SRN CANADA. A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS WELL
IDENTIFIED IN WV IMAGERY LIFTING INTO ACROSS FAR SW ONTARIO...ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE. A SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED SOUTH OF THIS LOW...THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NE. AN AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BURIED
UNDERNEATH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...FED BY A 45KT
LLJ. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A POCKET OF STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH WAS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN/NE IOWA ON THE NOSE OF THE
STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION. SHALLOW RIDGING AND AN AXIS OF DRIER
AIR WAS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL UPPER AND LAKE MICHIGAN...AND INGESTING
MOST ALL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD.
ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THERE WERE SOME PRE-DAWN LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS NE LOWER...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ILL-
DEFINED WARM FRONT/AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS ORIGINATING
FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORCING WAS VERY MINIMAL ALONG THIS
FRONT...WHICH WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LEFT NRN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER SUNNY SITUATION TO START OUT THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF DRY
AIR WILL SETTLE IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE THE
LEAD VORT MAX FROM FAR SW ONTARIO DAMPENS...AS IT LIFTS INTO LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. DESPITE OVERALL SLOWLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER -
DIVQ ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD FOCUS ON A
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE ACROSS NE LOWER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE/RADAR. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN...WHILE
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE ON THIS FRONT
AS IT MAKES IT`S WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. JUST HOW MUCH
CONVECTION CAN BE SUSTAINED AFTER NIGHTFALL IS THE MAIN FORECAST
QUANDRY.
THERE IS GROWING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION BEING SUSTAINED...MEANING
MANY FOLKS COULD GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING WITH
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY PORTRAYED IN THE MODEL WORLD...THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DOES SUGGEST SOME LEFT EXIT
JET DYNAMICS. BEST CHANCES/FORCING APPEAR TO BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...BUT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS (MUCAPES IN UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG) ROLLING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AN ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE THIS EVENING...DUE TO A QUICK UPTICK IN A
LLJ...SUGGESTING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS
AT AROUND 6-8 KFT...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ACB
AND GOV IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL ELUDE TO SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU 12Z.
WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO...PUTTING US
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE (850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING PAST PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK OF JUST GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWOODS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
(7/25)SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 12Z AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA, 21Z-ISH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN BY 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS DOES THE 500 MB
RIDGE WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SQUASHES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE MODELS SET UP A "RING OF FIRE" SOUTH OF US.
(7/26)SUNDAY...THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND LOOKS TO DO THAT FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH SETS
UP THE NEXT FEW DRY DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" JULY PATTERN
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK. HERE ARE THE DETAILS... THE HIGH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OVERNIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY, EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SWITCH AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE OF LWR
MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON...PLANTING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF APN EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT
DRY WX THRU EARLY EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM NW TO SE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...THUS WILL
LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AT PLN/TVC/MBL AFTER
03Z...AND AT APN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. DESPITE PRETTY DECENT
STABILITY OVER THE LAKES...LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE WATER SFC
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW LOWER
SHORELINE AND MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST/NW THROUGH
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
651 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS
AT AROUND 6-8 KFT...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ACB
AND GOV IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL ELUDE TO SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU 12Z.
WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO...PUTTING US
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE (850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING PAST PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK OF JUST GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWOODS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
(7/25)SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 12Z AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA, 21Z-ISH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN BY 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS DOES THE 500 MB
RIDGE WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SQUASHES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE MODELS SET UP A "RING OF FIRE" SOUTH OF US.
(7/26)SUNDAY...THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND LOOKS TO DO THAT FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH SETS
UP THE NEXT FEW DRY DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" JULY PATTERN
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK. HERE ARE THE DETAILS... THE HIGH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OVERNIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY, EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SWITCH AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE OF LWR
MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON...PLANTING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF APN EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT
DRY WX THRU EARLY EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM NW TO SE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...THUS WILL
LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AT PLN/TVC/MBL AFTER
03Z...AND AT APN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TODAYS CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE ECM AND HRRR-CR
MODELS. THE MCS WHICH WORKED THROUGH SWRN NEB AND NCNTL KS
THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A RAIN COOLED MESO HIGH WHICH WOULD FORCE
SOME THE VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR WEST TOWARD IMPERIAL AND THIS
PROCESS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AT 07Z. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WRN NEB WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE KS BORDER. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION
FORMING OVER NERN COLO THIS AFTN AND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE KS BORDER. THIS CONVECTION COULD MERGE TO FORM A MCS WHICH
WOULD TRACK EAST THROUGH SRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS ECM AND NAM ALSO SHOW PARTS OF NCNTL NEB DESTABILIZING
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEB.
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE WITH A
BELT OF 40 KT TO 50 KT 300MB WINDS OVERHEAD. SBCAPE IN THE ECM
RISES TO AROUND 3500J/KG. THE NAM SHOWS 4000+ SBCAPE AND NO CAP
ONCE AGAIN...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECM WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG I-80.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION COULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING OR MOVING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE KS BORDER
AND A 30KT 850MB JET OVER WRN KS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ACTIVE AND WARM WEEKEND. RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE
A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND THEN LIFT
TO S CENTRAL CANADA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL SEND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE OHIO/TENNESSE RVR
VALLEYS.
SATURDAY MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A SFC
LOW OVER WESTERN S DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PLAINS. VERY
HUMID AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH/SEMI DRY LINE WITH DEW PTS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. BEHIND THE TROUGH DEW PTS AROUND
60. MORNING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS
DEPARTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LINGER IN THE CWA. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS FOR
ACTIVITY TO FIRE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DECENT CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
GOOD SHEAR. SHOULD SEE SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIDE TO THE EAST HOWEVER WILL STILL
SEE A DRY LINE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DRY LINE COULD BE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MODELS NOT AS ACTIVE UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH
NOTICABLY COOLER TEMPS...MID 80S...HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE AND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS.
STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 22Z-04Z. STORM MOTION WILL CARRY THE STORMS
GENERALLY EAST...PERHAPS NORTHEAST INTO CUSTER COUNTY.
STORM ACTIVITY COULD LAST UNTIL 09Z OR LATER AS A DISTURABANCE
ACROSS ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEBRASKA
TONIGHT.
THE SREF SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS 09Z-12Z SATURDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ARW-NMM SOLNS BUT NOT THE NAM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
953 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 9 AM CDT...A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND KEEPING SKIES CLEAR.
LEFTOVER STRATUS FROM THE OVERNIGHT YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IS
BREAKING UP OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASING AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE FOG HAS ENDED AND WILL GO MOST SUNNY WEST AND
DECREASING CLOUDS EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUD CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND THE HIGHER GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST...UNTIL MID
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH TO
STRASBURG. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS
THIS AREA BRANCHING OUT AND JUST GRAZING SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ALSO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 13Z-14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND CENTRAL IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL MINOR/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MONTANA...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAKENING INTO MORE OR LESS A SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
WEAK CAPE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG. SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE GRIDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH
LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN -2C
TO -4C ACROSS THE SOUTH...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPS WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...INCREASES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 9 AM CDT HIGH PRESSURE WAS CLEARING SKIES OVER WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS WERE BREAKING UP
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUD CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND THE HIGHER GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST...UNTIL MID
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH TO
STRASBURG. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS
THIS AREA BRANCHING OUT AND JUST GRAZING SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ALSO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 13Z-14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND CENTRAL IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL MINOR/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MONTANA...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAKENING INTO MORE OR LESS A SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
WEAK CAPE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG. SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE GRIDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH
LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN -2C
TO -4C ACROSS THE SOUTH...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPS WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...INCREASES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND KDIK AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 17Z TODAY. VFR IS
FORECAST THEREAFTER. AN ISOLATED -TSRA IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 20Z...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR DYING
MCS ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON IT...SO MODELED SHORT TERM FORECAST AFTER
IT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEST THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING AS AT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD MID DRY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND
OF CONVECTION TRIES TO DEVELOP.
MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT IF EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK FROM
CONVECTION HANGS ON WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
A DYING MCS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...BUT THUNDER
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
COMPLEX WIPES OUT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...OTHER THAN SOME
BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN MODERATE RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THEN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A 250 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEST TO
EAST UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 105 KNOTS ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TODAY...THEN INCREASING LATE TONIGHT.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING
TO MODERATE UPWARD MOTION TONIGHT.
A 40 KNOT 700 MB JET EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA...REACHING AREAS JUST NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE JET DECREASES TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AT
AROUND 30 KNOTS.
700/850 AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES...BUT THE HIGH CAPE AXIS
IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ONLY AROUND 600 JOULES/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. BY THE TIME THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPES ARE AROUND 1200
JOULES/KG...AND AROUND 700 JOULES/KG FAR SOUTHEAST TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A RATHER STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB THAT ONLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPSTREAM MINNESOTA
CONVECTION. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ONES TAKE A WEAKENING AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TODAY...WHILE THE OTHER WEAKEN THE THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLETELY BEFORE REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE.
SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
KEPT LOW POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE MORNING
SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE TOO MOIST AND TOO UNSTABLE...SO
FOLLOWED THE MORE REASONABLE GFS SOUNDINGS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INLAND SATURDAY...PER BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE. LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A BIT COOLER.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS AN AXIS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM APPEARS OVERDONE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUING SLOWLY INCREASING
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER
MILD DAY IS EXPECTED INLAND...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR
THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEEP 500 MB LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THESE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF AND SOME FEATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONTINUED CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODEL POPS FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD...HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...PER CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODEL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOKING AT SIMILAR VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY...AND PATCHY GROUND FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE IN LOW
LYING AREAS ELSEWHERE.
MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPSTREAM MINNESOTA
CONVECTION. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ONES TAKE A WEAKENING AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TODAY...WHILE THE OTHER WEAKEN THE THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLETELY BEFORE REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE.
EXPECT SHALLOW CUMULUS BELOW THE CAP AT AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD
FT...WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW INCREASES...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
LAKE BREEZE SETTING IN. WINDS/WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
906 AM MST FRI JUL 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL MOIST MONSOON REGIME EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WHICH WAS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TWO REMNANT MCV`S ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA...EMBEDDED WITH A LARGE AXIS OF 1.6-1.8 INCH PWATS. TO THE
WEST REMAINED A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S...PWATS ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
REMAINED SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER /ONLY AROUND 1-1.1 INCHES/.
STORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY...CERTAINLY ACROSS SONORA GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL
MCV`S. HOWEVER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE DESERTS OF CENTRAL
ARIZONA...STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIM GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH ALL LOCAL MODELS /WHICH ARE TYPICALLY PRETTY
AGGRESSIVE/ AND SPC SSEO INDICATE A QUIET DAY. ONLY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING STORMS MAKING A RUN AT THE DESERTS IS THE NCAR HI-RES
ENSEMBLE. GIVEN THESE DATA...I`M GOING TO MAKE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO
THE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HIGHLIGHT THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...AS WELL AS A
SMALL AREA ACROSS NW PINAL AND SW MARICOPA COUNTY. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. AS FOR DUST...SAW
SOME PATCHY AREAS THAT DEVELOPED ON THURSDAY BUT IF STORMS REALLY
DEVELOP AS FAR AWAY AS THEY`RE FORECAST /I.E. OVER THE MOUNTAINS VS
THE DESERTS/...WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REDUCE VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS THIS MORNING INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONSOON SHOWERS BUT
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...IN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AZ. WE DO STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SOME BLOWING DUST. THIS SITUATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A BIT OF DRYING OVER THE
WEEKEND. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO ALIGN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE ENTIRE REGION AND THUS A LIKELY INCREASE IN
STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA ESPECIALLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AM WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT VARIABLE HEADINGS AND BROAD WEST
SFC FLOW. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CIGS TO PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY
THINNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. OUTSIDE CHANCE STILL REMAINS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PHX METRO WITH MOST LIKELY
IMPACT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED BLOWING DUST PSBLY INTO
THE TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE ANY VSBY REDUCTION OR DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT IN THE
TAFS SO FAR THIS AM...BUT PSBL INCLUSION IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH OF
THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO AVIATION CONCERNS
DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE MAY BE AN INTRUSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
ELEVATED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THIS IS STILL
UP FOR DEBATE IN THE ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW I MAINTAINED CLIMO-LIKE POPS
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR HUMIDITIES...EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON READINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. HUMIDITIES WILL
GRADUALLY CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
MAINTAIN TYPICAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY PATTERNS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/WATERS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IT WILL BE A RATHER ACTIVE DAY TODAY. ALOFT THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD SOME BUT WILL HAVE
BETTER SUCCESS TO THE WEST LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A MORE ZONAL
TYPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
STATE BUT WILL ONLY BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO THIRDS BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS WILL BRING THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA WITH
BORDERLINE INDICES OF AROUND 105. THE CURRENT ADVISORY HAS THIS
HANDLED SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT ADVISORY.
AS FOR PRECIP...HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
PRECIP TRENDS. THE HRRR IS TOO AGGRESSIVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ON POP TRENDS. THE
NAM12 AND NAMDNG HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL SO I TRIED TO KEEP
TRENDS TIED TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS. CURRENTLY CONVECTION IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE IN MINNESOTA HAS EEKED INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE CONVECTION WILL
TRAVEL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DOES
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER
SUNRISE AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY I FELT IT WARRANTED TO AT
LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP CHANCES.
BY AFTERNOON CAPES SKYROCKET TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 J/KG SO THERE
WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AROUND. AFTER THIS
MORNING...SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF HOWEVER AND DEEP SHEAR IS NOT
PRESENT. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR APPEAR TO BE
NORTH AND EAST EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTHWEST.
STILL...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IN DURING PEAK HEATING AND THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. I THINK THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
CONVECTION WILL BE EXPANDING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
OVERALL FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT
WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FOCUS. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR TO HELP WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE WEAK CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MAIN THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER OF 12KFT OR SO
WILL HELP RAINFALL EFFICIENCIES OVERNIGHT.
SOME REMAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A RESPITE FROM CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS SKIRTING NORTHERN IOWA. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ROBUST IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGES UPON THE BOUNDARY
AT PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
MODEST SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED WITH
NEARBY BOUNDARY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HYDRO ISSUE BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN WITH RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING THE SOILS TO
MOISTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. SHOULD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIFT CONVECTION TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS BY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CAPPING AND HOT/HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THIS AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS IOWA INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY
MIDWEEK ALONG WITH THE NEXT BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 18Z...LINE OF TSRA PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KOTM. AS SYSTEM
PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD...CLOUDS BREAKING UP OVER KFOD...KMCW...AND
KALO. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING NEAR KMCW
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MAY NEED TO ADD TS TO KALO TAF AROUND 02Z
TO 05Z SAT TIMEFRAME. INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS
IMPACTING KDSM AND KOTM. MAY NEED TO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IF MOD
TO HEAVY PRECIP PANS OUT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GUTHRIE-RINGGOLD-SAC-TAYLOR-UNION.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WV IMAGERY RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PAC NW TO THE
GREAT LAKES ATOP A RIDGE OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE OR REMNANTS OF THE MCV FROM EARLIER TODAY THAT BROUGHT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH UPPER MI HAS LIMITED
SFC HEATING AND KEPT MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. CLEARING WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEST WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-
1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR WEST. A SHRTWV OVER NRN MN ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT INTO NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.
EXPECT THAT THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1K J/KG.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV EDGING INTO UPPER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP BTWN 21Z-00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT
AND STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV ARRIVES...TSRA COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED. ANY REMAINING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE
CWA AFTER 06Z WITH CLEARING MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. SUNSHINE AND MIXING WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 16C
SUPPORT MAX READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS
FAVORED BY NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS 00Z
SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ON SUN AND HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING IN FOR MON. WILL HAVE IT DRY INTO THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY
BEFORE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING
INTO FRI. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL ON THU AND
FRI. WITH THE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE AREA...HARD TO RULE OUT
PCPN AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH WED AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ON THU AND FRI WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTRUBANCE MOVES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA AE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING...ONLY MENTIONED VCTS FOR NOW. CIGS AND/OR VSBY
COULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY
AT CMX. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WRLY 15-20KTS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUE KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 15KTS. ANY FOG OVER LAKE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...- NONE -
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
132 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN SRN CANADA. A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS WELL
IDENTIFIED IN WV IMAGERY LIFTING INTO ACROSS FAR SW ONTARIO...ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE. A SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED SOUTH OF THIS LOW...THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NE. AN AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BURIED
UNDERNEATH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...FED BY A 45KT
LLJ. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A POCKET OF STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH WAS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN/NE IOWA ON THE NOSE OF THE
STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION. SHALLOW RIDGING AND AN AXIS OF DRIER
AIR WAS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL UPPER AND LAKE MICHIGAN...AND INGESTING
MOST ALL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD.
ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THERE WERE SOME PRE-DAWN LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS NE LOWER...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ILL-
DEFINED WARM FRONT/AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS ORIGINATING
FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORCING WAS VERY MINIMAL ALONG THIS
FRONT...WHICH WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LEFT NRN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER SUNNY SITUATION TO START OUT THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF DRY
AIR WILL SETTLE IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE THE
LEAD VORT MAX FROM FAR SW ONTARIO DAMPENS...AS IT LIFTS INTO LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. DESPITE OVERALL SLOWLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER -
DIVQ ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...THE AIR MASS IS LIKELY GOING TO BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD FOCUS ON A
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE ACROSS NE LOWER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE/RADAR. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN...WHILE
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE. A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE ON THIS FRONT
AS IT MAKES IT`S WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. JUST HOW MUCH
CONVECTION CAN BE SUSTAINED AFTER NIGHTFALL IS THE MAIN FORECAST
QUANDRY.
THERE IS GROWING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION BEING SUSTAINED...MEANING
MANY FOLKS COULD GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING WITH
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY PORTRAYED IN THE MODEL WORLD...THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DOES SUGGEST SOME LEFT EXIT
JET DYNAMICS. BEST CHANCES/FORCING APPEAR TO BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...BUT ALL OF THE REGION WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS (MUCAPES IN UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG) ROLLING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AN ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE THIS EVENING...DUE TO A QUICK UPTICK IN A
LLJ...SUGGESTING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS
AT AROUND 6-8 KFT...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND ACB
AND GOV IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM AND VERY
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NAM12...RAP13 AND HRRR ALL ELUDE TO SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THRU 12Z.
WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO...PUTTING US
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE (850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING PAST PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...THUS SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK OF JUST GENERAL THUNDER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWOODS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
(7/25)SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN
LOOKS TO FALL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 12Z AND LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA, 21Z-ISH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN BY 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS DOES THE 500 MB
RIDGE WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SQUASHES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE MODELS SET UP A "RING OF FIRE" SOUTH OF US.
(7/26)SUNDAY...THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, AND LOOKS TO DO THAT FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, WHICH SETS
UP THE NEXT FEW DRY DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IN GENERAL, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" JULY PATTERN
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK. HERE ARE THE DETAILS... THE HIGH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OVERNIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS A WARM ADVECTION WING OF
RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY, EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE THE SWITCH AS COOLER AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
...POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING EAST...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WSW/SW WINDS...WHICH HAVE BECOME A BIT GUSTY UP TO 18 KTS.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS SEEN UPSTREAM FROM MINNESOTA TO
NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRACK TOWARD NRN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR PER UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A BETTER CHANCE
AT MVFR/IFR COMES WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD MIX OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015
HAVE UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. DESPITE PRETTY DECENT
STABILITY OVER THE LAKES...LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE WATER SFC
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW LOWER
SHORELINE AND MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST/NW THROUGH
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS ALSO IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF IT AT KCOU ARE SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG
AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40KTS. HAVE INCREASE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI. HAVE ALSO KEPT CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
ASCENT, AND THE RAP IS SHOWING AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GOING TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS REMAIN THE KEY QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE
BASICALLY ONLY TWEAKED THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT`S POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS BREAKS DOWN TO 30-50% CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA PUSHING CAPE
VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO FIRE THOUGH COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A DECENT CAP.
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT WITH THE HIGH
INSTABILITY THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE CONCERNED WITH MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE`LL GET WARM ENOUGH TO
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FOR SATURDAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105. ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...OR
POSSIBLY DROPPED IF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN
EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR
STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF OF
SATURDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO BE REINFORCED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE WANING QUICKLY THOUGH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER IOWA WILL DROP SOUTH AND MAY AFFECT KCOU
AND KUIN, BUT HAVE NOT ADDED THEM TO THE TAFS YET BECAUSE OF
TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS. THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COMPLEX
WILL REACH THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS
IT IS MORE STABLE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR BR
OR HZ OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT IT TO BE PATCHY. MAY BE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT 30 HOURS, MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING,
AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS.
BRITT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 77 92 77 91 / 10 50 50 50
QUINCY 72 89 73 88 / 40 50 50 50
COLUMBIA 75 93 74 91 / 30 40 40 40
JEFFERSON CITY 75 94 75 92 / 30 40 40 40
SALEM 69 90 74 89 / 10 30 40 40
FARMINGTON 71 90 72 89 / 10 30 30 30
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-
WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TODAYS CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE ECM AND HRRR-CR
MODELS. THE MCS WHICH WORKED THROUGH SWRN NEB AND NCNTL KS
THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A RAIN COOLED MESO HIGH WHICH WOULD FORCE
SOME THE VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR WEST TOWARD IMPERIAL AND THIS
PROCESS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AT 07Z. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WRN NEB WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE KS BORDER. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION
FORMING OVER NERN COLO THIS AFTN AND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE KS BORDER. THIS CONVECTION COULD MERGE TO FORM A MCS WHICH
WOULD TRACK EAST THROUGH SRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS ECM AND NAM ALSO SHOW PARTS OF NCNTL NEB DESTABILIZING
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEB.
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE WITH A
BELT OF 40 KT TO 50 KT 300MB WINDS OVERHEAD. SBCAPE IN THE ECM
RISES TO AROUND 3500J/KG. THE NAM SHOWS 4000+ SBCAPE AND NO CAP
ONCE AGAIN...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECM WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG I-80.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION COULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING OR MOVING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE KS BORDER
AND A 30KT 850MB JET OVER WRN KS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ACTIVE AND WARM WEEKEND. RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE
A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND THEN LIFT
TO S CENTRAL CANADA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL SEND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE OHIO/TENNESSE RVR
VALLEYS.
SATURDAY MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A SFC
LOW OVER WESTERN S DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PLAINS. VERY
HUMID AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH/SEMI DRY LINE WITH DEW PTS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. BEHIND THE TROUGH DEW PTS AROUND
60. MORNING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS
DEPARTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LINGER IN THE CWA. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS FOR
ACTIVITY TO FIRE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DECENT CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
GOOD SHEAR. SHOULD SEE SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIDE TO THE EAST HOWEVER WILL STILL
SEE A DRY LINE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DRY LINE COULD BE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MODELS NOT AS ACTIVE UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH
NOTICABLY COOLER TEMPS...MID 80S...HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE AND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS.
STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE PRIMARY AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REVOLVES AROUND THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL. STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE
LATEST AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM12
SOLUTION HAVE LARGELY PICKED UP ON THIS...AND THUS USED FOR THE
FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
SUGGESTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS HIGHEST
CENTERED ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION OVER
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITHE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A
CU FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY. THE
FORECAST TRENDS IN THE HRRR PLACE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NAM/GFS
ARE DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING BUT DONT THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY.
WILL FOLLOW THE DRYER NAM SOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL BRING THE H500 RIDGE
THROUGH THE STATE. THIS POSITIONS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST US TO BRING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. WILL TREND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
CENTRAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THEN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY
MID-WEEK.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPS WEAK
WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
ON SUNDAY WEAK BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE FRONT RANGE...INCREASES MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE FORECAST CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK (MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT). WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE WORDING JUST YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
ON TUESDAY THE MODELS LIFT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MANITOBA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA...BUT ALSO MOVES A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR TO OUR REGION. LOOKING AT HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 2 PM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER
STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL NOT PUT IN TAF AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT NOON CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH SOME CU IS
FORMING SOUTH CENTRAL. WHILE NEW NAM/GFS KEEP THE REGION DRY THE
HRRR CONTINUES TO FORM SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED T WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING BY MID AFTERNOON
BUT WILL DELAY CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING BASED ON THE SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT 9 AM CDT...A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND KEEPING SKIES CLEAR.
LEFTOVER STRATUS FROM THE OVERNIGHT YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IS
BREAKING UP OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASING AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE FOG HAS ENDED AND WILL GO MOST SUNNY WEST AND
DECREASING CLOUDS EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUD CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND THE HIGHER GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST...UNTIL MID
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH TO
STRASBURG. THE LATEST HRRR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS
THIS AREA BRANCHING OUT AND JUST GRAZING SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND ALSO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 13Z-14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND CENTRAL IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL MINOR/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS MONTANA...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAKENING INTO MORE OR LESS A SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
WEAK CAPE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG. SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM
OVER THE ENTIRE WEST. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE GRIDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH
LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN -2C
TO -4C ACROSS THE SOUTH...CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPS WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...INCREASES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
AT NOON CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER
STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL NOT PUT IN TAF AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
UPDATE...
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE TO ABERDEEN
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE STALLED FRONT HAS
SLIPPED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THAT LINE. WILL
UPDATE TO CUT BACK OR REMOVE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO RAISE POPS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND MUCH OF NORTH MS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE QPF GRID FOR THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA.
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN BACK BUILDING
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR DIMINISH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY...INCREASING AND
EXPANDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS
LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS.
FOR TODAY...THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL
AR...POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ALSO...ANY ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS
THE MS RIVER DELTA...INCLUDING MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO...EXCESSIVE
HEAT WILL OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 106 AND 109 DEGREES. THUS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND KEPT IT GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.
AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY HOT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE 110 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. A POP UP SHRA OR
TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO ADD VCTS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL...KJBR AND KTUP. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1101 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE TO ABERDEEN
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE STALLED FRONT HAS
SLIPPED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THAT LINE. WILL
UPDATE TO CUT BACK OR REMOVE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO RAISE POPS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND MUCH OF NORTH MS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE QPF GRID FOR THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA.
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN BACK BUILDING
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR DIMINISH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY...INCREASING AND
EXPANDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS
LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS.
FOR TODAY...THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL
AR...POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ALSO...ANY ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS
THE MS RIVER DELTA...INCLUDING MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO...EXCESSIVE
HEAT WILL OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 106 AND 109 DEGREES. THUS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND KEPT IT GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.
AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY HOT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE 110 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A COUPLE OF SITES...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD ONLY
LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AT
JONESBORO...MEMPHIS AND TUPELO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WHICH
LOCATIONS AND TIMING. TLSJR
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
535 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH
COLD FROPA.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IA. RAP PUSHES CORRIDOR OF 0-1KM MUCAPE IN THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE (NE-SE RESPECTIVELY) ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY 7PM. HOWEVER...RAP/NAM SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 700-
800MB CAP IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE ONLY
MODEL SHOWING CONVECTIVE REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WITH THE FROPA IS THE
NAM...BUT THIS IS WITH MUCH HIGHER PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE CAP IN PLACE. IF
THE CAP DOES WEAKEN SOME...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
FIRE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS A
RESULT OF THE CONDITIONAL NATURE TO THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING POP
CATEGORY IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
EAST WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST. LOOK FOR STORM THREAT TO SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE TAKES
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HEAT RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WILL GO WITH 20-40 PPS
FOR NOW AND MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO/THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SUB-SEVERE AT
THIS TIME WITH JUST LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE
MAIN IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
MONDAY HOLDS A LOWER-END CHANCE FOR SOME AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE HEAT
RIDGE IN PLACE AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD TOP
90S DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 7S0 TO THE LOWER 80S.
SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCE RETURN ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED...WITH INCREASING CAPE AND FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THAT COULD HELP FUEL/ORGANIZE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AT THE TAF
SITES...AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
CONVERGENT. MESO MODELS ARE NOT FAVORING SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE FRONT...COMING THROUGH WITH SOME VFR-MVFR
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. KLSE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT...AND THAT
LOOKS MEAGER AT THE MOMENT. WILL KEEP TAFS RAIN FREE FOR THE
MOMENT...AND ADD MENTION IF RADAR TRENDS NECESSITATE IT.
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS KRST NEAR 03Z AND KLSE NEAR 05Z. LOOK
FOR WIND TO GO WEST THEN NORTH. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH
COLD FROPA.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IA. RAP PUSHES CORRIDOR OF 0-1KM MUCAPE IN THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE (NE-SE RESPECTIVELY) ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY 7PM. HOWEVER...RAP/NAM SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 700-
800MB CAP IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE ONLY
MODEL SHOWING CONVECTIVE REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WITH THE FROPA IS THE
NAM...BUT THIS IS WITH MUCH HIGHER PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE CAP IN PLACE. IF
THE CAP DOES WEAKEN SOME...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
FIRE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS A
RESULT OF THE CONDITIONAL NATURE TO THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING POP
CATEGORY IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
EAST WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST. LOOK FOR STORM THREAT TO SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE TAKES
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HEAT RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WILL GO WITH 20-40 PPS
FOR NOW AND MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO/THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SUB-SEVERE AT
THIS TIME WITH JUST LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE
MAIN IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
MONDAY HOLDS A LOWER-END CHANCE FOR SOME AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE HEAT
RIDGE IN PLACE AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD TOP
90S DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 7S0 TO THE LOWER 80S.
SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCE RETURN ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED OR SOME BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
COLD FRONT COMES IN. BOTH THE 24.12Z NAM AND 24.15Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AND THAT THIS CAP WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE CAP TO BE DISPLACED LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. BASED ON THIS...PLAN TO SHOW SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THAT COULD GO TO A VFR CEILING FOR A
WHILE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WINDS
DROPPING UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...MOVING DUE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS IS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND THINK CONVECTION WILL OUTRUN THIS MOST UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT-WAVE ALOFT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN SEVERE...SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG NOSE OF 850 HPA JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CLOSER TO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE THROUGH MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AND 9 AM. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID
80S AND WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...TODAY WILL FEEL MUCH MORE HUMID THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH
HEAT/HUMIDITY...0-3 KM MUCAPE QUICKLY BUILDS TO BETWEEN 1000 TO
3000 J/KG...BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL CAP SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP STORMS
IN CHECK. THAT IS UNTIL A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT IS UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS A WEST-EAST ORIENTED JET
STREAK THAT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI...RESULTING IN 0 T0
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS. LATEST SUITE OF MESO MODELS
ONLY SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON
COVERAGE...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DROP TO ZERO BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
NOT MUCH TIME SPENT ON THE LONG TERM GIVEN MORE IMMEDIATE CONVECTIVE
CONCERNS...BUT WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES MOVE THROUGH BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. MORE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE WARM WITH DAILY HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE MID 80S WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE RATHER
HIGH...RESULTING IN HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE LOWER IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S COLD FRONT. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK GIVEN DOMINANT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED OR SOME BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
COLD FRONT COMES IN. BOTH THE 24.12Z NAM AND 24.15Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AND THAT THIS CAP WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE CAP TO BE DISPLACED LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. BASED ON THIS...PLAN TO SHOW SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THAT COULD GO TO A VFR CEILING FOR A
WHILE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WINDS
DROPPING UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
239 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT PRETTY
MUCH RIGHT OVER THE CHEYENNE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH NOT MAKING ANY PROGRESS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAINS OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS MOISTURE...BUT FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...RADAR REMAINS PPINE. HAVE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE THAT SEPARATE VERY DRY AIR WEST AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE.
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH FROM THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
TODAY/THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR HOURLY RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE NEAR CHEYENNE THAT DRIFT OUT INTO
THE PANHANDLE. HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS ALL MORNING...BUT SO
FAR...NOTHING HAS HAPPENED. SO CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH THAT
THIS SOLUTION WILL HAPPEN. CONTINUED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKING AT A PRETTY WARM DAY SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO +18C ACROSS THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER. LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE YEAR. DID GO HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING 700MB WINDS OUT
WEST. BY 00Z MONDAY GFS SHOWING 700MB WINDS OUT WEST AT 20-25KTS.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEY INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS AND THEN BY
MONDAY MORNING...30 TO 35KTS. DID GO HIGHER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE WOULD STAY WELL MIXED WITH POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
ANOTHER QUITE WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKYS. THIS WILL
BRING A RATHER WINDY DAY TO THE WIND-FAVORED AREAS OF SE WYOMING
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAKING FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS
THE UPPER TROF EDGES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LEAVING DRY AND MILDER
WEATHER IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR
A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. AFTER THAT THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
KEEPING A MAINLY DRY PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IN
TEMPS. MONSOONAL FLOW APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN CUT OFF MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK BUT SOME INDICATION IT WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE KRWL AND KLAR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015
WARM...DRY AND GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
OUT WEST. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP WINDS EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS
WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT
MONDAY. POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING WILL START HUMIDITIES OFF LOW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE WINDS
INCREASE...WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS 9AM MONDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC