Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/22/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SUNRISE FOG AT KADF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CURRENT TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN SITES. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TODAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE. PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN MISSOURI. IN ADDITION TO THE 12Z
WRF AND 00Z NAM...THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE SHOWED FAIRLY GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DO SUGGEST
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SET OF STORMS. AS
SUCH...TOOK A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW AND JUST ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PERRY-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
WHITE-WOODRUFF.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL
REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
DRYING TREND AND A RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RUNOFF FROM THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT HAS BEGUN SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED SOME
ROAD FLOODING AND MUD FLOWS ON ROADS IN THE SOUTH END. RUNOFF FROM
THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 1615Z /0915 PDT/ THIS
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
THE FOCUS WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...INCLUDING KERN
AND TULARE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN
THE TEHACHAPI AND SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS...AND ALTHOUGH THE RAINS HAD
TAPERED OFF AS OF 08Z /0100 PDT/...THE THREAT CONTINUED FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WHICH CARRIES TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE
DOLORES INTO THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE LESS CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WERE RUNNING SIMILAR TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY CEASED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THE MODELS KEEP ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST
AREA. OF INTEREST IS THAT BOTH THE NAM-12 AND THE HRRR HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE OVER MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES TODAY...WITH THE NAM-12
FINALLY BRINGING THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS KERN COUNTY
BEGINS TO DRY OUT. IF THIS VERIFIES...CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION NORTH OF KERN COUNTY OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN BEING
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING/S RFC QPF GUIDANCE FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
CONTINUED A TREND OF BEING WETTER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THE RFC
STORM-TOTAL QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FORECAST POINTS WAS
OVER AN INCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO FORECAST POINTS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM SUNDAY/S RAIN
SO THERE LIKELY WILL BE FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN DRYING
OUT THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. IN TURN...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD BACK INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE 500-MB 5880-METER HEIGHT LINE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT AREAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH WITH SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AROUND 40 KTS CAN ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-20 111:1908 81:1973 78:1938 54:1903
KFAT 07-21 112:1908 79:1987 82:2006 56:1973
KFAT 07-22 112:2006 83:1896 84:2006 56:1903
KBFL 07-20 112:1938 84:1973 82:1979 49:1906
KBFL 07-21 112:1938 81:1987 83:1969 50:1906
KBFL 07-22 113:1908 82:1984 88:1910 50:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 0915 PDT THIS
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAC029/.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE
/CAZ096-097/.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL
REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
DRYING TREND AND A RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
THE FOCUS WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...INCLUDING KERN
AND TULARE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN
THE TEHACHAPI AND SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS...AND ALTHOUGH THE RAINS HAD
TAPERED OFF AS OF 08Z /0100 PDT/...THE THREAT CONTINUED FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WHICH CARRIES TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE
DOLORES INTO THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE LESS CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WERE RUNNING SIMILAR TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY CEASED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THE MODELS KEEP ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST
AREA. OF INTEREST IS THAT BOTH THE NAM-12 AND THE HRRR HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE OVER MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES TODAY...WITH THE NAM-12
FINALLY BRINGING THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS KERN COUNTY
BEGINS TO DRY OUT. IF THIS VERIFIES...CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION NORTH OF KERN COUNTY OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN BEING
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING/S RFC QPF GUIDANCE FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
CONTINUED A TREND OF BEING WETTER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THE RFC
STORM-TOTAL QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FORECAST POINTS WAS
OVER AN INCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO FORECAST POINTS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM SUNDAY/S RAIN
SO THERE LIKELY WILL BE FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN DRYING
OUT THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. IN TURN...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD BACK INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE 500-MB 5880-METER HEIGHT LINE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT AREAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH WITH SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AROUND 40 KTS CAN ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-20 111:1908 81:1973 78:1938 54:1903
KFAT 07-21 112:1908 79:1987 82:2006 56:1973
KFAT 07-22 112:2006 83:1896 84:2006 56:1903
KBFL 07-20 112:1938 84:1973 82:1979 49:1906
KBFL 07-21 112:1938 81:1987 83:1969 50:1906
KBFL 07-22 113:1908 82:1984 88:1910 50:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE
/CAZ096-097/.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
617 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST RADAR AND SAT TRENDS ALONG WITH
HIGH RES PROGS. HRRR DEVELOPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVE...AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN CO MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT DISCOUNT
IT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION IS NOW E OF THE
CORRIDOR...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
PLAINS. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
CURRENTLY...SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S
TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING WY. THE DAY STARTED
OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS AND MT CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO
INITIATE. A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING...AND FORTUITOUS TIMING OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE...HAS NOW KICKED SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON ACTUAL ONGOING WX...SO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHALLENGING. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...BANDS OF CONVECTION...LIKELY TIED TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TO THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE UNTIL
THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING...SO NO WORD OF ANY
FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR AND STORMS HAVE BEEN AVOIDING AREA BURN
SCARS...SO FAR. SPC HAS PAINTED MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL
AREA....SO THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH. THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT...AND
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE FROM WEST TO EAST AND TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO COLORADO...SHUNTING AVAILABLE MOISTURE
EITHER FAR NORTH...OR WELL SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE THE ISOLATED
SHOT AT MT CONVECTION STARTING MIDDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE START TO A WARM AND ESSENTIALLY DRY PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE E
PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY SEE LESS STORMS OVERALL AS DRIER AIR
IS FORECAST TO IMPINGE OVER THIS REGION DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SO THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE...IE...THE PIKES PEAK REGION...WETS AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE AND ONLY MODEST WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE POPS OVER THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE WILL
BE IN THE ISOLD TO LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...WITH MAINLY ISOLD POPS
OVER THE PLAINS. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE L/M90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S OVER THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AT TERMINALS. COULD ALSO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I25
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND
60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KCOS SOUTH TO KTAD...AND EAST TO
KLHX....THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 04Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALL AREAS FOR WED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2015
CURRENTLY...A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
HAS PUT A DAMPER ON MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...AND
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WAS SLOW TO START. NO
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS OF YET...AS SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING
CONFIRMED THAT THE GREATER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN NM.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS OF 3 PM...AND IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY OUR OF THE EAST...BUT WITHIN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE S-SE DIRECTION.
TONIGHT...A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL
STAY THAT WAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...AS A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. HI RES
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH SOME SPILL OVER ACROSS THE I25
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z. OTHERWISE...FEEL THAT
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY TIED TO THE MTS. SO...NOT A LOT OF
IMPRESSIVE STORMS JUST YET AND THE UPPER W-SW FLOW HAS BEEN KEEPING
STORMS MOVING...CUTTING DOWN ON THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE IN NM ARE WELL OVER AN
INCH...BUT UP NORTH IN THE PUB CWA ARE CLOSER TO .6 TO .7 OF AN
INCH. OF COURSE...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FOR AREA BURN SCARS
REMAINS THIS EVE AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
TOMORROW...THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES
WY...PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER
ALL OF THE MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS BY 15Z. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUE
EAST...THE BAND OF ENHANCED LIFT WILL CROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND E
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...AND AN ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE IN THE
POP GRIDS TO SHOW THIS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTN AS THIS WAVE CROSSES THE AREA...AS THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SHEAR ON TAP...AND SPC HAS PAINTED
MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL AREA. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...BUT SHOULD STILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S
FOR THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR THAT
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
OVERALL IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM AS MONSOON TAP WILL BE DECREASED
AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL
RISE BACK UP INTO THE 90S. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY..
GUIDANCE INDICATES MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE
UPSWING AS SW FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AND A TROUGH TO OUR WEST MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME
PERIODS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
EVE...BUT SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE S-SE DIRECTION THIS AFTN WILL
ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO CROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE...AN
ISOLATED STORM PROBABLE FOR KCOS OR KPUB...BUT MORE SO OUTFLOW
WINDS. KALS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 07Z. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER
THE MT PASSES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND THU...A MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER LOOKS TO
RETURN SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
823 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CT WAS SUPPORTED BY STEEP
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES...WITH MODEST MEAN-LAYER CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WAS 40-45 KT. THUS FAR THIS
HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN WIND GUSTS OF 39 KT AT KHFD.
NOW THAT SUNSET HAS PASSED...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THIS EVENING PROGRESSES. THE MAIN
THREATS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE/I-90 FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. INTERESTINGLY...A FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI.
PRESUMABLY THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS
FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. THIS COLD FRONT AS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NY
STATE AT 8 PM.
TWEAKED TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL CHANCES THIS EVENING. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FULL SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE SLOW
TO DEPARTURE. SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS AT 3 PM TO CLIMB INTO THE
MU80S INLAND...U70S TO L80S ALONG THE COAST GIVEN SEABREEZES.
DESPITE WARM SURFACE READINGS MID LEVEL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WARM WITH
-8C AT 500 MB. THIS IS ONLY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
5.5C/KM. SO DESPITE SBCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN NY...UPDRAFTS WEAKEN ALOFT
GIVEN POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40 KT/ AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING /Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/ IS FAIRLY ROBUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO
SURVIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING 5 PM TO 8
PM...EXCEPT 8 PM TO 11 PM RI AND EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY NOT TIL
11 PM TO 2 AM ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION ARRIVING
AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST OF THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.
MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM AND MUGGY EVENING. SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH DEW PTS
FALLING INTO THE 50S TOWARD MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
COLUMN DRIES NICELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
DEPARTING SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC WITH
COOL AIR ALOFT YIELDING DIURNAL CU/SCU ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MA INTO NH. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
ALOFT TO PRECLUDE CU/SCU FROM DEVELOPING INTO TCU. THUS EXPECTING
DRY WEATHER TO PRECLUDE.
VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S AND A MODEST WNW BREEZE.
ALTHOUGH PGRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGHS MAINLY 80-85. A
REAL NICE DAY BY LATE JULY STANDARDS.
WED NIGHT...
CORE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 AND 925
MB TEMPS ANOMALIES FALLING TO -1 STD BELOW CLIMO. THUS LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER MOS TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS
GIVEN DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS DECOUPLING
FOR A TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK
* A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* WET WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
21/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE THE TYPICAL
MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS MAY CHANGE...HAVE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TREND OF THIS FORECAST. PREFERRED THE
CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER THESE DIFFERENCES.
OVERALL TREND IS FOR A MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA TO MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
LASTLY LOOKING AT THE 850 MB AND THE 925 MB TEMPS...HAVE A HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DAILIES...
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD WEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THURSDAY WILL BE DRY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY...BELIEVE THIS
WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
CHANCE IS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE
MORE INTERACTION WITH SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS ENERGY IS MINIMAL WITH SHEAR
REMAINING ABOUT 40 KTS.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD
AND SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY RAIN-FREE. HOWEVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL BE AROUND AS LAPSE RATES STEEPENED AND
MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS INCREASES FROM SW FLOW.
OVERALL SHOULD BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOW HUMIDITY THANKS TO THE DOMINANT NW
FLOW ALOFT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE MAIN ISSUE HERE IS TIMING. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS ENOUGH VARIATION IN THE GUIDANCE TO NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC
AT THIS POINT.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TREND FOR DRIER WEATHER...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY KACK. IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03Z TO 09Z.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A MODEST WNW WIND INLAND...POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE ALONG EASTERN MA COASTLINE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER/MVFR ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER DURING THE EVENING...VFR PREVAILS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS EVENING.
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WED AFTN.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS. SEA
BREEZES COULD DEVELOP EVERY DAY IN THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA. GREATEST RISK FOR TSRA ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO 00Z MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH WNW WIND POSSIBLE BECOMING
ONSHORE ESP EASTERN MA COASTLINE. COMBINATION OF WNW WIND WAVES
AND SSE OFFSHORE SWELL MAY YIELD SEAS INCREASING TO NEAR 5 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS WED AFTN. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
WED NIGHT...ANY SEABREEZES DECAY AND GIVE WAY TO WNW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
154 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AT NOON ARE ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT HAS REACHED 92 DEGREES AS OF
NOON...WHICH IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 20TH 2013 THAT THE
TEMPS HAS REACHED 90 OR HIGHER AT THIS LOCATION. TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE NYC AND NJ METRO SO
HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR THE NYC
METRO AND NEAR 100 ACROSS NE NJ.
SURFACE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NYC METRO. SEA
BREEZES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NYC METRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES MOVE THROUGH...DEW
POINTS COULD BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SO FAR...NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. STILL FEEL THAT THIS CONVERGENCE IS THE ONLY FOCUS
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY IS VERY HIGH...2000 TO
3000 J/KG TODAY. ANY STRONGER CELL COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS INDICATED BY BUFKIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH...BUT THE
FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS PROGS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO SCHC AS A RESULT...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. HOT TEMPS BUT THE HX ATTM
BLW 95 IN THE CITY. THE ADVY WAS THEREFORE NOT EXTENDED. TEMPS DO
HAVE A TENDENCY TO RISE HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
MOVES SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH MAINLY DRY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIES UPPER FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA WITH A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH.
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND NORTHEAST COAST. THIS ALLOWS
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY AND WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY
PASSING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREVAILING WEATHER WILL BE VFR. TEMPO MVFR IN CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE
IN AFTN AND EVE ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS EACH DAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WINDS...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT BETWEEN KJFK AND KLGA EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WILL STRUGGLE NORTH AND WEST. SW WINDS
ARND 10 KT ARE FCST ARND 19Z KLGA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY W ACROSS METRO NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LESS THAN 10
KT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT SUNSET.
SW WINDS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z ARND 10 KT ON
TUE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS 18Z-
00Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT
OF SEABREEZE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSTM 18Z-
00Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSTM 18Z-
00Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSTM 18Z-
00Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSTM 18Z-
00Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE AFTN AND EVE...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS.
.WED-SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DUE TO A WEAK PRES GRAD OVER THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA
LVLS THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY. WIND AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. DRY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1234 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA AT NOON ARE ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT HAS REACHED 92 DEGREES AS OF
NOON...WHICH IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 20TH 2013 THAT THE
TEMPS HAS REACHED 90 OR HIGHER AT THIS LOCATION. TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE NYC AND NJ METRO SO
HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS CONTINUES TO GIVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR THE NYC
METRO AND NEAR 100 ACROSS NE NJ.
SURFACE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NYC METRO. SEA
BREEZES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CT. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NYC METRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES MOVE THROUGH...DEW
POINTS COULD BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SO FAR...NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. STILL FEEL THAT THIS CONVERGENCE IS THE ONLY FOCUS
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY IS VERY HIGH...2000 TO
3000 J/KG TODAY. ANY STRONGER CELL COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS INDICATED BY BUFKIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH...BUT THE
FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS PROGS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO SCHC AS A RESULT...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. HOT TEMPS BUT THE HX ATTM
BLW 95 IN THE CITY. THE ADVY WAS THEREFORE NOT EXTENDED. TEMPS DO
HAVE A TENDENCY TO RISE HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
MOVES SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH MAINLY DRY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIES UPPER FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA WITH A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH.
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND NORTHEAST COAST. THIS ALLOWS
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY AND WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
PREVAILING WEATHER WILL BE VFR. TEMPO MVFR IN CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE
IN AFTN AND EVE ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS EACH DAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WINDS...TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SEA BREEZES
ACROSS THE METRO AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
FROM KJFK AND KLGA EAST WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING 16Z-18Z AT
ARND 10 KT. SEA BREEZES MIGHT NOT REACH KEWR / KTEB AND KHPN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT
OF SEABREEZE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT
OF SEABREEZE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEABREEZE WIND
SHIFT. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH SEABREEZE WIND
SHIFT. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHC OF
SEABREEZE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT
OF SEABREEZE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MOST PLACES MORE LIKELY
TO NOT EXPERIENCE THAN TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONVECTION.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DUE TO A WEAK PRES GRAD OVER THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA
LVLS THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY. WIND AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. DRY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-
178.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS ONCE IT REACHES THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES BUT LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FOR MID WEEK TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS WINDS HAVE BECOME WESTERLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...AS A SECONDARY DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS LAGGING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT THIS HOUR.
CONVECTION HAS WANED ACROSS OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH WE ARE WATCHING A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL TIER OF NY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY ARCING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION.
HI- RES MODELS INCLUDING THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WITH INSTABILITY
WEAKENING.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY BUT SLOW
ITS PROGRESS AS IT REACHES ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING FOR THIS LIMITED AREA. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY
WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT MUCH OF A THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH
UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS EXCEPT LOWER 90S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TO DEVELOP
AROUND 700-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40-50 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SHOULD THE HIGHER RANGE OF INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...THERE
COULD BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN MENTIONING ANY SEVERE
STORMS AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BASED ON TIMING FROM MODEL GUIDANCE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE. A COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY COURTESY OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. GENERAL TROUGHINESS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME DIURNAL CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S...MAKING IT FEEL
QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE JULY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. THE MEAN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
JUST EAST OF OUR REGION...SO ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR 80 SOUTH AND AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S
NORTH.
ANOTHER ORGANIZED UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION LATER SATURDAY
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS TO
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. WITH THE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...LOWER 70S NORTHERN AREAS.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS TO THE STRENGTH OF UPPER DYNAMICS...LOW
LEVEL FORCING...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...AND
DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...AS NEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE VICINITY OF KGFL.
PUTTING VCTS AT KGFL THROUGH 09Z...WHEN MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME INTERVALS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNRISE...BUT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A TEMPERATURE DEW
POINT SPREAD ARE PREVENTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WELL.
ONCE CONVECTION ENDS AROUND OR AFTER 09Z...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THIN
AND EXIT...SO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL AND KPSF. SO...
INDICATING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH 13Z-14Z.
AFTER 13Z-14Z...ALL AREAS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF DAY AND EVENING
WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT THE MOST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 6 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS ONCE IT REACHES THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES BUT LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
FOR MID WEEK TO LATE WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT...RECOVERING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 80 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...WHICH MAY BRING A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAIN IN
SOME SPOTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS...WITH PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS EACH DAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
342 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE...
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SHORT RANGE PATTERN
REMAINS STATIC WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST...STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TEXAS...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE CONTINENTAL SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH THE MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE WEST- SOUTHWEST THE EARLY
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE FROM THE GULF...THEN MOVING ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST AND THEN TOWARD SAINT AUGUSTINE AND THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. LATER IN THE DAY OUR BARRAGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP OUT OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/INTERSTATE-10. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND EVEN FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK IN
A FEW PLACES. WITH EARLIER CONVECTION AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SFC TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT CLOSES OFF OVER SC AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL. UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH SFC TROUGH BOTH DAYS
ALLOWING AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EACH MORNING NEAR
THE GOMEX THEN SPREADING AREA WIDE...PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE INTENSITY OF STORMS INCREASES EACH
DAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS OF AROUND 2.00
TO 2.25 INCHES HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR
WEDS AND THURS AFTERNOONS. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET EACH
DAY AND REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAT INDICES
STILL A CONCERN WEDS AND THURS AFTERNOONS REACHING 102-107 DEGREES
AS DEWPOINTS DO NOT WAVER FROM THE MID 70S.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WET PATTERN PERSISTS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BEGINNING EARLY IN THE
DAY NEAR THE GOMEX AND SUWANNEE VALLEY THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY CONTINUING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS NE
FL AS BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER AND HIGHEST
LEVELS OF MOISTURE REMAIN LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. BY SUNDAY PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND DRIER AIR MASS
MOVES OVER SE GA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES IN NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER SE GA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH MAXS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPOS IN FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA FIELDS
WITH CEILINGS ABOUT 3 KFT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE IN EVIDENCE OVER GEORGIA WILL KEEP
CONVECTION AS VICINITY FOR SAINT SIMONS ISLAND BUT THAT MAY NEED
TO BE AMENDED IF CONVECTION POPS AS THE HRRR MODEL IS ADVERTISING.
TUESDAY...LOOK FOR A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH EARLY
STORMS OVER THE FIELDS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND LATER ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THERE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WITH TONIGHTS NOCTURNAL SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL REACH SCEC CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO DROP OFF DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN A REPEAT OF EARLY
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 76 94 76 95 / 40 50 30 50
SSI 79 90 79 91 / 40 40 20 40
JAX 76 93 78 94 / 50 50 20 50
SGJ 77 90 77 91 / 50 50 20 40
GNV 74 91 76 91 / 60 60 20 60
OCF 74 90 75 90 / 60 60 20 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GUILLET/SANDRIK/SHASHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
909 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
SO FAR EVERYTHING LOOKING TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER APALACHE BAY AND THE NATURE COAST. LARGE
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND THINK THE
HRRR MODEL MAY BE OVER DOING THINGS JUST A BIT OVER THE SOUTH.
EXPECT IT WILL POP THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAYBE A BIT AFTER THE
EARLIER RUNS OF THE MODEL INDICATED. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SEEMS TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON THAT TREND AND IS A BIT LATER IN DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF FLORIDA STATE ROAD 16.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL WILL KEEP THE MENTION OT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
FOR RIGHT NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND LATER. THAT WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR SGJ AND GNV.
&&
.MARINE... NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST OR THINKING. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A NOCTURNAL SURGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
WITH A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR OFFSHORE BOATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 95 75 94 75 / 50 30 50 20
SSI 93 78 92 79 / 60 30 40 10
JAX 93 75 93 77 / 60 40 50 10
SGJ 92 76 92 76 / 60 40 50 10
GNV 92 74 92 76 / 70 30 60 10
OCF 90 74 90 74 / 40 30 60 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SANDRIK/SHASHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
344 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLC
SEABOARD TO THE FL PANHANDLE WL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A PERSISTENT WEATHER FORECAST WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
SUITABLE NEAR 2.0 INCHES. SWLY WINDS FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE
STEERING LEVEL FAVOR THE EAST PENINSULA FOR OPTIMAL CONV
DEVELOPMENT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.
DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOW MOVING EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY WL LEAD
TO HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SPACE COAST NWD.
LTST HRRR GUID SHOWS THIS SCENARIO SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON
SUNDAY FROM AROUND 19Z THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR REMAINS MID LEVEL TEMPS AROUND -6C (WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2C
WARMER THAN NORMAL). STORMS WL LARGELY COME TO AN END FROM 9-10
PM WHILE SHIFTING OVER THE ATLC WATERS AND DISSIPATING.
TUESDAY...PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DLM RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GIVEN THE NARROW MOISTURE RIBBON AND LITTLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TRIMMED POP BACK TO 50 NORTH AND
DECREASING TO 30 SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD START TO SEE LATE MORNING SHOWERS COMING IN FROM THE
WEST/GULF SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWERS BECOME STORMS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH MAX HEATING AND AS THEY NEAR THE EAST/ATLANTIC
SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THEY HAVE BEEN DOING THE PAST DAYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT POPS LOOKED WAY TOO HIGH BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
ACTUALLY HAPPENING THE PAST FEW DAYS THUS LOWERED THE NIGHT POP TO
20 PERCENT. STORMS AND/OR SHOWER SHOULD BE ALL OVER WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. HIGHS TUESDAY LOW 90S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING
MID 70S EXCEPT LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST MELBOURNE SOUTH WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR IS PUSHED EAST BY LAND
BREEZES.
WED-SUN...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY PUSHING A FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
PAST FEW RUNS. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND LOW/MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS WED-THU. AS THE
FRONT NEARS LIKELY POP VOLUSIA/NORTH LAKE FRI THEN NORTH HALF SAT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH HALF SUN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES IT SLOW PUSH
DOWN THE STATE. HIGHS STILL IN THE LOW 90S. MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 21/12Z
WINDS: THRU 20/14Z...S/SW 3-6KTS. BTWN 20/14Z-20/17Z...S/SW
6-9KTS. BTWN 20/17Z-20/23Z...COASTAL SITES S/SE 8-12KTS...INTERIOR
SITES SW 7-10KTS. BTWN 20/23Z-21/03Z...S/SW 5-8KTS. AFT 21/03Z
S/SW AOB 4KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 20/14Z-20/17Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL
SITES. BTWN 20/17Z-20/24Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL
SITES...ISOLD LIFR +TSRAS WITH SFC G NR 35KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE
S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE
BTWN 2 PM AND SUNSET.
TUE-FRI...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONG FRI AS THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT
STRENGTHENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 75 92 76 / 50 20 50 20
MCO 93 74 92 76 / 40 20 50 20
MLB 92 74 91 76 / 40 20 40 20
VRB 92 73 92 74 / 40 30 30 20
LEE 91 77 91 78 / 50 20 50 20
SFB 93 77 92 77 / 50 20 50 20
ORL 92 76 92 77 / 40 20 50 20
FPR 93 72 91 74 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST US WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE. THE
MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY THE UPPER RIDGING AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AS INDICATED BY DIFLUENT HEIGHTS. THE HRRR AND ARW
DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY. THE SPC WRF
INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED
LI/S -6 TO -8 TODAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING INDICATES DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2
INCHES ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
RECENT BIAS SUPPORTS THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE LATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH HANGS IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THOUGH WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING NEAR THE AREA IN A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS US IN GENERAL
THUNDER BUT COULD HAVE A FEW STRONGER STROMS ALONG COLD FRONT. MAY
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
18-22Z OR SO...ENDED UP HAVING TO ISSUE ONE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS SOUTH. DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S AND TEMPS AROUND 100 WILL
BRING APPARENT TEMPS UP TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US WITH TROUGH
OVER THE NE US. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
BEST CHANCE WHEN TRIGGER COINCIDES WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...LOWER TO MID 90S...BY
THE WEEKEND. 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. FOG POTENTIAL AT THE TAF SITES MAY ALSO
DEPEND ON WHICH SITES RECEIVE RAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING EACH DAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025-030-
035>038-041.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST US WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE. THE
MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY THE UPPER RIDGING AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AS INDICATED BY DIFLUENT HEIGHTS. THE HRRR AND ARW
DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY. THE SPC WRF
INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED
LI/S -6 TO -8 TODAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING INDICATES DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2
INCHES ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
RECENT BIAS SUPPORTS THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE LATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH HANGS IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THOUGH WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING NEAR THE AREA IN A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...A MORE PRONOUCED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS US IN GENERAL THUNDER
BUT COULD HAVE A FEW STRONGER STROMS ALONG COLD FRONT. MAY NEED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON 18-22Z OR
SO...ENDED UP HAVING TO ISSUE ONE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S AND TEMPS AROUND 100 WILL BRING APPARENT
TEMPS UP TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US WITH TROUGH
OVER THE NE US. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
BEST CHANCE WHEN TRIGGER COINCIDES WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...LOWER TO MID 90S...BY
THE WEEKEND. 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.
LIGHT WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH A 25 TO 30 KNOT NOCTURNAL
JET SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. FOG POTENTIAL MAY ALSO DEPEND ON
WHICH SITES RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING EACH DAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025-030-
035>038-041.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
87
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
806 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE RIDGE A
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE. THE
MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY THE UPPER RIDGING AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AS INDICATED BY DIFLUENT HEIGHTS. THE HRRR AND ARW
DISPLAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY. THE SPC WRF
INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED
LI/S -6 TO -8 TODAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING INDICATES DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2
INCHES ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
RECENT BIAS SUPPORTS THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE LATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECASTED THE HIGHER POPS NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONT STALLED IN THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE FRONT MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE HIGHS NEAR 100 WEDNESDAY AND IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS 20
TO 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.
LIGHT WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH A 25 TO 30 KNOT NOCTURNAL
JET SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. FOG POTENTIAL MAY ALSO DEPEND ON
WHICH SITES RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING EACH DAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE RIDGE A
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
YESTERDAY. HEATING AND MIXING WILL DISSIPATE ANY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE. THE
MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY THE UPPER RIDGING AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AS INDICATED BY DIFLUENT HEIGHTS. THE HRRR AND ARW DISPLAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY. THE SPC WRF INDICATED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER
GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-6 TO -8 TODAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
INDICATES DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE RECENT BIAS
SUPPORTS THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT
DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE LATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECASTED THE HIGHER POPS NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONT STALLED IN THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE FRONT MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE HIGHS NEAR 100 WEDNESDAY AND IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS 20
TO 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE 12Z-13Z. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES. LIGHT WEST WINDS
DURING THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING EACH DAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
514 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
230 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AS OF 230 PM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PATCH OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S ATTAINED IN
EASTERN AREAS. THESE ARE AT CONVECTIVE VALUES GIVEN THE DEW POINTS
AND ACCORDINGLY SOME CUMULUS...A FEW TOWERING...HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE AREA. LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LFC REMAIN NON-IMPRESSIVE PER
AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SO WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES EAST...THUNDER MAY STILL
BE HARD TO COME BY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY IN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BASICALLY RIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WISCONSIN TO
EASTERN IOWA HAS STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN CLOUD COVER...BUT
A FEW STORMS ARE STARTING TO POP AS THAT MOVES EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND
SOME ARE ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME 35 MPH PLUS GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS
GIVEN MARGINAL EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 700-1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS NON-CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARING AS WELL. A SECONDARY MOMENTUM PUSH OF THE
DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ON NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK NEAR NORMAL.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS FOR ONE OF THE FEW TIMES THIS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECTING DAILY LAKE BREEZE FORMATION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. 12Z NAM DID HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH CONVECTION FORECAST
TO POP ON LAKE BREEZE...WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE HIGH BIASED EVEN WITH VERY
WET SUMMER SO FAR. THUS THINKING IS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL EVEN WITH A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...COUPLING WITH DRY COLUMN TO
ENABLE DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING SQUEEZED OUT ON THURSDAY GIVEN STRONGER
VORT MAX.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD REACH AROUND 80 INLAND
BASED ON 925 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. THEN EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS FROM SOUTHERN CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGE.
GUIDANCE HAS OFTEN VERIFIED TOO HIGH THIS SUMMER WITH TEMPS...BUT
WONDER IF PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND LOWER
TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH. DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER
CHANCE FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY THOUGH AFTER A FEW TO
SCT CU ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS FAR
OUT AND THEN WITH OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION BEYOND SATURDAY
EVENING FRONT. STILL APPEARS IT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS ACTIVE THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF THIS SUMMER AND SEASONABLY WARM.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY EARLY EVENING.
* NE WINDS ABOVE 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE SHRA/TSRA SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KC09 TO KIGQ WITH SOME
SPOTTY SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING THIS AREA
OF SHRA/TSRA TO EXPAND NORTHWARD MUCH OF AT ALL. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OR JUST BEHIND AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
IT MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING TOGETHER WITH TIME AS IT WILL
BE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS HAD FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOST OF THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO SHRA MENTION BUT SLOW THE
TIMING SLIGHTLY. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS IS TIED TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SLATED TO COME THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS TO
SUPPORT SOME RAIN. DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ARE LOWER
THAN THESE AREAS...THEREFORE IN SPITE OF THE WAVE TRACKING RIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ESPECIALLY
ANY LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL...WILL STRUGGLE INITIALLY. THERE IS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AS WELL. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE TAFS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
AFTER THE WAVE GOES PAST...IT APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED TO
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH TRAILS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WHILE
COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION...BEST TIMING OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 0-3Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO
NW WINDS 4-6Z. CURRENT TAFS PEG THE 0-2Z TIME FRAME AT THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS...COULD BE 1-3Z PER SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS. A FLOP OVER TO NE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS ABOVE 11 KT POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING RUSH.
WINDS BACK TO NNW LATER TUESDAY....THOUGH THEY HANG ON NE CLOSER
TO THE LAKE.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING OF SHRA POTENTIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT TSRA POTENTIAL AT THE TERMINALS IS LOW BUT MEDIUM IN SHRA
OCCURRENCE.
* MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTRW...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING
TURNING WINDS NORTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT
FOR A 3-4 HOUR OR SO PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE HIGHER SPEEDS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BUILD
WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FOR A QUIET MIDWEEK PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
330 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
230 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AS OF 230 PM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PATCH OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S ATTAINED IN
EASTERN AREAS. THESE ARE AT CONVECTIVE VALUES GIVEN THE DEW POINTS
AND ACCORDINGLY SOME CUMULUS...A FEW TOWERING...HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE AREA. LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LFC REMAIN NON-IMPRESSIVE PER
AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SO WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES EAST...THUNDER MAY STILL
BE HARD TO COME BY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY IN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BASICALLY RIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WISCONSIN TO
EASTERN IOWA HAS STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN CLOUD COVER...BUT
A FEW STORMS ARE STARTING TO POP AS THAT MOVES EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND
SOME ARE ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME 35 MPH PLUS GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS
GIVEN MARGINAL EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 700-1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS NON-CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARING AS WELL. A SECONDARY MOMENTUM PUSH OF THE
DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ON NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK NEAR NORMAL.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS FOR ONE OF THE FEW TIMES THIS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECTING DAILY LAKE BREEZE FORMATION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. 12Z NAM DID HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH CONVECTION FORECAST
TO POP ON LAKE BREEZE...WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE HIGH BIASED EVEN WITH VERY
WET SUMMER SO FAR. THUS THINKING IS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL EVEN WITH A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...COUPLING WITH DRY COLUMN TO
ENABLE DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING SQUEEZED OUT ON THURSDAY GIVEN STRONGER
VORT MAX.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD REACH AROUND 80 INLAND
BASED ON 925 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. THEN EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS FROM SOUTHERN CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGE.
GUIDANCE HAS OFTEN VERIFIED TOO HIGH THIS SUMMER WITH TEMPS...BUT
WONDER IF PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND LOWER
TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH. DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER
CHANCE FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY THOUGH AFTER A FEW TO
SCT CU ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS FAR
OUT AND THEN WITH OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION BEYOND SATURDAY
EVENING FRONT. STILL APPEARS IT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS ACTIVE THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF THIS SUMMER AND SEASONABLY WARM.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY EARLY EVENING.
* NE WINDS ABOVE 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS IS TIED TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SLATED TO COME THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS TO
SUPPORT SOME RAIN. DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ARE LOWER
THAN THESE AREAS...THEREFORE IN SPITE OF THE WAVE TRACKING RIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ESPECIALLY
ANY LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL...WILL STRUGGLE INITIALLY. THERE IS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AS WELL. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE TAFS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
AFTER THE WAVE GOES PAST...IT APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED TO
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH TRAILS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WHILE
COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION...BEST TIMING OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 0-3Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO
NW WINDS 4-6Z. CURRENT TAFS PEG THE 0-2Z TIME FRAME AT THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS...COULD BE 1-3Z PER SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS. A FLOP OVER TO NE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS ABOVE 11 KT POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING RUSH.
WINDS BACK TO NNW LATER TUESDAY....THOUGH THEY HANG ON NE CLOSER
TO THE LAKE.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN TIMING IF ANY SHOWERS ARE TO OCCUR. LOW IN TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BUT MEDIUM IN SHRA.
* MEDIUM/HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTRW...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING
TURNING WINDS NORTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT
FOR A 3-4 HOUR OR SO PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE HIGHER SPEEDS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BUILD
WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FOR A QUIET MIDWEEK PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
239 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
230 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AS OF 230 PM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PATCH OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S ATTAINED IN
EASTERN AREAS. THESE ARE AT CONVECTIVE VALUES GIVEN THE DEW POINTS
AND ACCORDINGLY SOME CUMULUS...A FEW TOWERING...HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE AREA. LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LFC REMAIN NON-IMPRESSIVE PER
AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SO WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES EAST...THUNDER MAY STILL
BE HARD TO COME BY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY IN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BASICALLY RIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WISCONSIN TO
EASTERN IOWA HAS STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN CLOUD COVER...BUT
A FEW STORMS ARE STARTING TO POP AS THAT MOVES EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND
SOME ARE ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME 35 MPH PLUS GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS
GIVEN MARGINAL EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 700-1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS NON-CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARING AS WELL. A SECONDARY MOMENTUM PUSH OF THE
DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ON NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK NEAR NORMAL.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY EARLY EVENING.
* NE WINDS ABOVE 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS IS TIED TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SLATED TO COME THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS TO
SUPPORT SOME RAIN. DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ARE LOWER
THAN THESE AREAS...THEREFORE IN SPITE OF THE WAVE TRACKING RIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ESPECIALLY
ANY LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL...WILL STRUGGLE INITIALLY. THERE IS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AS WELL. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE TAFS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
AFTER THE WAVE GOES PAST...IT APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED TO
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH TRAILS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WHILE
COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION...BEST TIMING OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 0-3Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO
NW WINDS 4-6Z. CURRENT TAFS PEG THE 0-2Z TIME FRAME AT THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS...COULD BE 1-3Z PER SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS. A FLOP OVER TO NE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS ABOVE 11 KT POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING RUSH.
WINDS BACK TO NNW LATER TUESDAY....THOUGH THEY HANG ON NE CLOSER
TO THE LAKE.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN TIMING IF ANY SHOWERS ARE TO OCCUR. LOW IN TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BUT MEDIUM IN SHRA.
* MEDIUM/HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTRW...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING
TURNING WINDS NORTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT
FOR A 3-4 HOUR OR SO PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE HIGHER SPEEDS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BUILD
WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FOR A QUIET MIDWEEK PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
231 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
230 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AS OF 230 PM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PATCH OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REACH MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S ATTAINED IN
EASTERN AREAS. THESE ARE AT CONVECTIVE VALUES GIVEN THE DEW POINTS
AND ACCORDINGLY SOME CUMULUS...A FEW TOWERING...HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE AREA. LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LFC REMAIN NON-IMPRESSIVE PER
AMDAR AND RAP ANALYSIS SO WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES EAST...THUNDER MAY STILL
BE HARD TO COME BY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY IN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BASICALLY RIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WISCONSIN TO
EASTERN IOWA HAS STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN CLOUD COVER...BUT
A FEW STORMS ARE STARTING TO POP AS THAT MOVES EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND
SOME ARE ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE 30-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME 35 MPH PLUS GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS
GIVEN MARGINAL EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 700-1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS NON-CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARING AS WELL. A SECONDARY MOMENTUM PUSH OF THE
DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ON NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK NEAR NORMAL.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY EARLY EVENING. SCHC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
* NE WINDS ABOVE 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS IS TIED TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SLATED TO COME THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS TO
SUPPORT SOME RAIN. DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ARE LOWER
THAN THESE AREAS...THEREFORE IN SPITE OF THE WAVE TRACKING RIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ESPECIALLY
ANY LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL...WILL STRUGGLE INITIALLY. THERE IS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AS WELL. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE TAFS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
AFTER THE WAVE GOES PAST...IT APPEARS THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED TO
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH TRAILS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WHILE
COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION...BEST TIMING OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 0-3Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO
NW WINDS 4-6Z. CURRENT TAFS PEG THE 0-2Z TIME FRAME AT THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS...COULD BE 1-3Z PER SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS. A FLOP OVER TO NE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS ABOVE 11 KT POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING RUSH.
WINDS BACK TO NNW LATER TUESDAY....THOUGH THEY HANG ON NE CLOSER
TO THE LAKE.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN TIMING IF ANY SHOWERS ARE TO OCCUR. LOW IN TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BUT MEDIUM IN SHRA.
* MEDIUM/HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDS.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTRW...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING
TURNING WINDS NORTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT
FOR A 3-4 HOUR OR SO PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE HIGHER SPEEDS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BUILD
WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LAKE FOR A QUIET MIDWEEK PERIOD.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND ALSO
LOWERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER CENTRAL IL AND
MID TO UPPER 90S IN SOUTHEAST IL. MCS/MCV MOVING EAST OUT OF MO
INTO SW AND WEST CENTRAL IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR EAST AS A BEARDSTOWN TO JACKSONVILLE TO EAST
OF ST LOUIS LINE AND TRACKING EAST AT 35 MPH. RAP MODEL APPEARED
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS MCS AND IT SPREADS QPF EAST ACROSS
AREAS FROM RUSHVILLE TO RANTOUL SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF WI/IA AND SHORT WAVE OVER IA TO TRACK
SE INTO NW IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TO HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL MOVING INTO IL RIVER
VALLEY LATE TODAY. SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDESTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM I-72 SOUTH. SPC HAS SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWERENCE COUNTIES. BUT MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COVERS
CENTRAL IL CWA WITH 5-15% RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
MODEST MUCAPES ARE 1500-2500 J/KG SW CWA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
MODEST BULK SHEAR IS 25-35 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR ST.LOUIS LAST EVENING HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
STORMS ARC BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MO INTO
NORTHEAST KS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. QUESTION BECOMES WHAT
AFFECT FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER COOL
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY.
USING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OFF THE RAP MODEL WOULD SUGGEST A
SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS MISSOURI
THRU FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH A SECONDARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOWING UP ALONG THE WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP THIS
MORNING ACROSS OUR WEST. MIXED LAYER CAPES OFF THE NAM MODEL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING THAT
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORM THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI. WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT IS WHERE THE
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR AN IMPULSE BRINGING PRECIP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH SOMEWHAT AND FOR THE MOST PART,
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE CONSIDERABLY FASTER TONIGHT.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE LARGELY DRY AFTER 06Z, WITH THE NAM STILL
STRUGGLING. HAVE PUSHED THE GRIDS CLOSER TO THAT SOLUTION, BUT THE
SLOWING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...HAVE KEPT
THE SLIGHTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, ALTHOUGH THOSE SMALL POPS MAY
ALSO GET PULLED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE.
ELUSIVE DRY TREND IS BACK IN THE FORECAST FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED EVENING, AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY A WAVE DIVES
INTO THE REGION AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO PASS TO THE
SW, SOME SMALL POPS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE SUPERBLEND ALONG
AND SW OF A LINE FROM HAVANA TO LAWRENCEVILLE. CONCERNED WITH THE
LOOK OF THE MODELS IN THAT TIME FRAME ARE NOT PROPERLY REPRESENTED
IN THE SUPERBLEND JUST YET. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF ON
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER IL...AND ECMWF PASSES THE WAVE ALOFT IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME WITH LITTLE TO SHOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND
AGAIN. WITH THE WARM TEMPS, A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ILLINOIS HAS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING
FLOW AND MODELS ARE A BIT MORE SCATTERED WITH WEAK WAVES...WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING AT THE WEEKEND DEALING WITH A TROF PASSING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. FOR NOW, SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
MCV SOUTH OF VANDALIA WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-72. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF WI/IA WILL
MOVE SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY BY SUNSET WHILE A SHORT WAVE OVER
IA MOVES INTO IL BY 00Z/7 PM. THIS MOVING INTO A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
UNTIL EARLY OR MID EVENING. MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG OVER SW CWA
WHILE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20Z-01Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE TO PIA BETWEEN 06Z-07Z AND REACH DEC AND CMI
BY 09Z WITH SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS SHIFTING NW OVERNIGHT AND NORTH
TUE MORNING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1041 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND ALSO
LOWERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER CENTRAL IL AND
MID TO UPPER 90S IN SOUTHEAST IL. MCS MOVING EAST OUT OF MO INTO
SW AND WEST CENTRAL IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS FAR EAST AS A BEARDSTOWN TO JACKSONVILLE TO EAST OF ST LOUIS
LINE AND TRACKING EAST AT 35 MPH. RAP MODEL APPEARED TO HAVE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS MCS AND IT SPREADS QPF EAST ACROSS AREAS FROM
RUSHVILLE TO RANTOUL SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL PARTS OF WI/IA TO TRACK SE INTO NW IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL
MOVING INTO IL RIVER VALLEY LATE TODAY. SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM I-72 SOUTH. SPC HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF
CLAY...RICHLAND AND LAWERENCE COUNTIES. BUT MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS COVERS CENTRAL IL CWA WITH 5-15% RISK OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING UNTIL SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR ST.LOUIS LAST EVENING HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
STORMS ARC BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MO INTO
NORTHEAST KS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. QUESTION BECOMES WHAT
AFFECT FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER COOL
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY.
USING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OFF THE RAP MODEL WOULD SUGGEST A
SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS MISSOURI
THRU FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH A SECONDARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOWING UP ALONG THE WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP THIS
MORNING ACROSS OUR WEST. MIXED LAYER CAPES OFF THE NAM MODEL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING THAT
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORM THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI. WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT IS WHERE THE
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR AN IMPULSE BRINGING PRECIP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH SOMEWHAT AND FOR THE MOST PART,
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE CONSIDERABLY FASTER TONIGHT.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE LARGELY DRY AFTER 06Z, WITH THE NAM STILL
STRUGGLING. HAVE PUSHED THE GRIDS CLOSER TO THAT SOLUTION, BUT THE
SLOWING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...HAVE KEPT
THE SLIGHTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, ALTHOUGH THOSE SMALL POPS MAY
ALSO GET PULLED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE.
ELUSIVE DRY TREND IS BACK IN THE FORECAST FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED EVENING, AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY A WAVE DIVES
INTO THE REGION AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO PASS TO THE
SW, SOME SMALL POPS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE SUPERBLEND ALONG
AND SW OF A LINE FROM HAVANA TO LAWRENCEVILLE. CONCERNED WITH THE
LOOK OF THE MODELS IN THAT TIME FRAME ARE NOT PROPERLY REPRESENTED
IN THE SUPERBLEND JUST YET. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF ON
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER IL...AND ECMWF PASSES THE WAVE ALOFT IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME WITH LITTLE TO SHOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND
AGAIN. WITH THE WARM TEMPS, A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ILLINOIS HAS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING
FLOW AND MODELS ARE A BIT MORE SCATTERED WITH WEAK WAVES...WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING AT THE WEEKEND DEALING WITH A TROF PASSING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. FOR NOW, SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI AND MAY PUSH
INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MODELS NOT VERY AGREEABLE AS TO WHETHER THE BAND WILL HOLD
TOGETHER BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE VCTS OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS BY 16Z...AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS BY 18 OR 19Z. THE RAIN THREAT SHOULD END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO
13 KTS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO A LIGHT NORTHWEST DIRECTION
AFTER FROPA LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
615 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR ST.LOUIS LAST EVENING HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
STORMS ARC BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MO INTO
NORTHEAST KS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. QUESTION BECOMES WHAT
AFFECT FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER COOL
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY.
USING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OFF THE RAP MODEL WOULD SUGGEST A
SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS MISSOURI
THRU FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH A SECONDARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOWING UP ALONG THE WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP THIS
MORNING ACROSS OUR WEST. MIXED LAYER CAPES OFF THE NAM MODEL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING THAT
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORM THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI. WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT IS WHERE THE
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR AN IMPULSE BRINGING PRECIP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH SOMEWHAT AND FOR THE MOST PART,
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE CONSIDERABLY FASTER TONIGHT.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE LARGELY DRY AFTER 06Z, WITH THE NAM STILL
STRUGGLING. HAVE PUSHED THE GRIDS CLOSER TO THAT SOLUTION, BUT THE
SLOWING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...HAVE KEPT
THE SLIGHTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, ALTHOUGH THOSE SMALL POPS MAY
ALSO GET PULLED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE.
ELUSIVE DRY TREND IS BACK IN THE FORECAST FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED EVENING, AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY A WAVE DIVES
INTO THE REGION AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO PASS TO THE
SW, SOME SMALL POPS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE SUPERBLEND ALONG
AND SW OF A LINE FROM HAVANA TO LAWRENCEVILLE. CONCERNED WITH THE
LOOK OF THE MODELS IN THAT TIME FRAME ARE NOT PROPERLY REPRESENTED
IN THE SUPERBLEND JUST YET. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF ON
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER IL...AND ECMWF PASSES THE WAVE ALOFT IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME WITH LITTLE TO SHOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND
AGAIN. WITH THE WARM TEMPS, A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ILLINOIS HAS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING
FLOW AND MODELS ARE A BIT MORE SCATTERED WITH WEAK WAVES...WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING AT THE WEEKEND DEALING WITH A TROF PASSING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. FOR NOW, SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI AND MAY PUSH
INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MODELS NOT VERY AGREEABLE AS TO WHETHER THE BAND WILL HOLD
TOGETHER BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE VCTS OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS BY 16Z...AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS BY 18 OR 19Z. THE RAIN THREAT SHOULD END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO
13 KTS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO A LIGHT NORTHWEST DIRECTION
AFTER FROPA LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
319 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR ST.LOUIS LAST EVENING HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
STORMS ARC BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MO INTO
NORTHEAST KS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. QUESTION BECOMES WHAT
AFFECT FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER COOL
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY.
USING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OFF THE RAP MODEL WOULD SUGGEST A
SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS MISSOURI
THRU FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH A SECONDARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOWING UP ALONG THE WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE
FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP THIS
MORNING ACROSS OUR WEST. MIXED LAYER CAPES OFF THE NAM MODEL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING THAT
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORM THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI. WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT IS WHERE THE
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR AN IMPULSE BRINGING PRECIP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH SOMEWHAT AND FOR THE MOST PART,
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE CONSIDERABLY FASTER TONIGHT.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE LARGELY DRY AFTER 06Z, WITH THE NAM STILL
STRUGGLING. HAVE PUSHED THE GRIDS CLOSER TO THAT SOLUTION, BUT THE
SLOWING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...HAVE KEPT
THE SLIGHTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, ALTHOUGH THOSE SMALL POPS MAY
ALSO GET PULLED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE.
ELUSIVE DRY TREND IS BACK IN THE FORECAST FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED EVENING, AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY A WAVE DIVES
INTO THE REGION AND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO PASS TO THE
SW, SOME SMALL POPS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE SUPERBLEND ALONG
AND SW OF A LINE FROM HAVANA TO LAWRENCEVILLE. CONCERNED WITH THE
LOOK OF THE MODELS IN THAT TIME FRAME ARE NOT PROPERLY REPRESENTED
IN THE SUPERBLEND JUST YET. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF ON
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER IL...AND ECMWF PASSES THE WAVE ALOFT IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME WITH LITTLE TO SHOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND
AGAIN. WITH THE WARM TEMPS, A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ILLINOIS HAS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING
FLOW AND MODELS ARE A BIT MORE SCATTERED WITH WEAK WAVES...WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING AT THE WEEKEND DEALING WITH A TROF PASSING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. FOR NOW, SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES. SO
WILL START ALL SITES WITH FOG AND CONTINUE THAT UNTIL THE MORNING
HOURS AROUND 14Z. THEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS AN
MCS FROM THE PLAINS GETS INTO THE AREA...SOMETIME AFTER 15Z. THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THE MORNING STUFF AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER SOME HEATING AND ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LAST WAVE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW...THEN
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS FRONT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
THROUGH CWA TONIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE FLUX WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT ENOUGH AMBIENT MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TO SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SEEM
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOTH MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY BUT STILL
SHOW SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AS
MUCAPES ONLY IN THE 1-2K J/KG RANGE AT BEST AND 0-3KM SHEAR
BETWEEN 20 AND 30KTS. LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING SHOULD ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ENDING PCPN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COOL FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL MODERATION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AND
EVENTUALLY BUILD FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HIGHS HERE
WILL BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RISING INTO THE 80S BY
FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT SOME
ENERGY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. CONTINUED WITH VCSH
MENTION AT KSBN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER
PUSHED TIMING BACK A BIT AND CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION IS
CONTINUING TO LOWER. FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
631 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
THROUGH CWA TONIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE FLUX WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT ENOUGH AMBIENT MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TO SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SEEM
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOTH MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY BUT STILL
SHOW SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AS
MUCAPES ONLY IN THE 1-2K J/KG RANGE AT BEST AND 0-3KM SHEAR
BETWEEN 20 AND 30KTS. LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING SHOULD ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ENDING PCPN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COOL FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL MODERATION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AND
EVENTUALLY BUILD FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HIGHS HERE
WILL BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RISING INTO THE 80S BY
FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT SOME
ENERGY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT POCKETS
OF GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS FRONT BUT LIFT IS WEAK AND CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
THROUGH CWA TONIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE FLUX WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT ENOUGH AMBIENT MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TO SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SEEM
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOTH MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY BUT STILL
SHOW SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AS
MUCAPES ONLY IN THE 1-2K J/KG RANGE AT BEST AND 0-3KM SHEAR
BETWEEN 20 AND 30KTS. LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING SHOULD ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ENDING PCPN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COOL FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL MODERATION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... AND
EVENTUALLY BUILD FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HIGHS HERE
WILL BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RISING INTO THE 80S BY
FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT SOME
ENERGY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT POCKETS
OF GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS FRONT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
124 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 1930Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM FORT WAYNE EASTWARD TO FINDLAY...WHERE SBCAPES HAVE REACHED
3000 TO 4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS WEAK WITH 500MB SPEED MAX WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AS WELL...WITH BETTER VEERING
WINDS AND LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. W/ MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FORCING/SHEAR...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE
FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ASIDE FROM A LOW DAMAGING WIND THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT GOING FORWARD...W/ PWATS MAXING OUT NEAR 2.00
INCHES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
AS FAR AS POPS GO...KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH 00Z...WITH
A GRADUAL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z AS FRONTAL FORCING BECOMES A BIT STRONGER...HOWEVER HI
RES GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY RECENT HRRR RUNS...HAVE SUGGESTED
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TAPERED OFF TO
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST FROM KANSAS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS MAY SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS VERY WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT ANY PRECIP COVERAGE BEFORE 00Z...HOWEVER FOR
COLLABORATION SAKE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER
21Z. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WENT SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
UPSTREAM SYSTEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015
DIFFUSE CDFNT MOVG THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH REMNANT BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL LIFTING BACK N-NE MONDAY AS SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED CDFNT OVER SASK MOVES SE INTO THE UPR GRTLKS AND SECOND
VORT MAX OVER WY GETS INGESTED INTO THE WRLYS AND MOVES TO THE
MID MS VALLEY. COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS AND
RETURN MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SCT
TSTMS IN OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT... CONTINUED WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SRN
STREAM VORT MAX. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OF THE ONTARIO UPR LOW AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA.
THIS WILL ALLOW A RATHER STRONG SFC HIGH TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE-E FROM
THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GRTLKS PROVIDING FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND... SFC HIGH
SHOULD MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/WAA
RETURNING TO OUR AREA AND COMBINING WITH WK SHRTWV`S MOVG OVER THE
TOP OF THE SRN PLAINS/ROCKIES UPR HIGH BRINGING A CHC OF TSTMS
BACK TO OUR AREA. THE NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...PSBLY RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT POCKETS
OF GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS FRONT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES DUE TO CANCELLING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 444. ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO STRONGER
STORMS WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE FA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT THAT WOULD HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015
COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE. EITHER OR SOME COMBINATION
OF A LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SURFACE TROUGH RETREATING FRONT
IS NOW NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A WEAK
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
THE RAP IS CATCHING THE SURFACE WIND FIELD THE BEST RIGHT NOW. IT
AND THE HRRR WHICH DID WELL FROM LAST NIGHT...IS CATCHING THE WIND
FIELD AND THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VERY
WELL RIGHT NOW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST THROUGH A
DEEP DEPTH. WHERE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL/SOME FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED LAST NIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING IS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THEREFORE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VERY LIGHT LINGERING RAINFALL MAY BE AROUND THROUGH MID MORNING.
AFTER THAT IT SHOULD STAY QUIET UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH. AIR MASS DOES NOT APPEAR AS MOIST. ALSO SURFACE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF AREA. MODELS ARE NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL CHANCES. HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AM KEEPING SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...NEEDED TO MAKE SOME CHANGES FOR
THIS RUN AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TWO FEATURES. FIRST...GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A FURTHER SOUTH PUSH FROM THE
FRONT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. SECOND...GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEGINNING WITH MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
DUE TO THE FRONT AND THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINING FURTHER
SOUTH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE FRONT. A NARROW TONGUE OF
INSTABILITY RETURNS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTER FLOW EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING SO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. ALL
PARAMETERS ARE DELAYED BY 6-12 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY SO ACTIVITY MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THEREFORE...LOWERED POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WET PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT AXIS WHERE THE RAIN WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINS. THE BEST
FORCING SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY WEDNEDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING A MAXIMUM NEAR 1.60 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES SLIDES WEST AND STRENGTHENS/BUILDS NORTH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN END IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...SOME MEMBERS OF THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE DO INDICATE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AND
NO TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR TO HONE IN ON. IN FACT...THINK THAT
MOST LIKELY THE REGION REMAINS DRY DUE TO CLOSENESS/STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE
CURRENT EXITING SHORTWAVE. RADAR SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF STORMS
MOVING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY STORM
IMPACTING THEM.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MCV THAT HELPED PROVIDE ASCENT FOR THE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO IL. THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA ALONG THE NE BORDER PICKED UP BETWEEN 2
TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH RESULTED IN SOME FLASH FLOODING
BETWEEN 6 AM-8AM. A SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE BEGIN TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH MID 70 DEWPOINTS.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. I`LL PROBABLY JUST GO
WITH 14 POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH ASCENT FRONT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. I EXPECT AN
MCS/COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS DURING THE
MID EVENING HOURS AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THERE`S STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THE MCS WILL FORM AND TRACK. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL BETWEEN 03Z-12Z THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SHOWS THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KS
AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
WRF SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE
12Z NAM SHOWS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WEAKENING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ONCE IT REACHES CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...AND THE CHANCE OF AN MCS OR COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...I HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THROUGH 11
AM MONDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS GENERALLY ALONG A MINNEAPOLIS TO
MANHATTAN...TO HOYT...TO OKALOOSA LINE. COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED ON THIS EVENING IF THE MCS DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
ENVIRONMENT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS WILL CONSIST OF 2000-3000 MUCAPE ALONG WITH 0-6KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KTS. THEREFORE SOME OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE.
IF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPS THEN THERE MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY MCS OR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FORECAST PWATS IN
THE 1.9-2.25 INCH RANGE.
MONDAY...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NE AND EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ON A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER DUE TO
THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE NE BORDER TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT
PUSHES DOWN TO NEAR KS/OK BORDER BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. COULD
BE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL MONDAY EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW
COMBINES WITH ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER THE THERMAL BOUNDARY TO GIVE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL KS AND
AREAS SOUTH. ON TUESDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WEAK WAVE AND
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AFFECTS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY
THE MODELS TO EDGE NORTHWARD...BEST LIFT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS AND HAVE CONFINED HIGHEST POPS AND LARGER QPF
TO OUR EAST CENTRAL KS COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF I70.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATE WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL ON AND
OFF CHANCES OF PRECIP. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP INTO THE REGION
AS WELL A COUPLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WORKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND OVER NORTHEASTERN KS. GENERALLY HAVE POPS DECREASING
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF FAIRLY SHARPLY BY
EVENING WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT NARROW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING A BROADER MID LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIP ON SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER AREAS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. THE LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER A BIT AT THIS POINT AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT AN
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THAT A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE FORCED INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROADER TROUGH OF THE WESTERLIES MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EITHER WAY, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND MORNING THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. WITH A
SITUATION THAT LOOKS TO LEAVE SEVERAL POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES IN PLAY
OVER THE REGION, SUNDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS A
WEAK WAVE TURNS THE RIDGE AND INSTABILITY SETS UP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KS.
LOWS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION REMAINS THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TAF CYCLE. HIT AND MISS
TSRA WILL BODE FOR VCTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND BECOME A TEMPO
IN A FEW HOURS AS HIGHER COVERAGE COMPLEX MOVES EASTWARD AND CAN
REASSESS. DOES STILL LOOK TO CLEAR MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TAKING HOLD BEHIND.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...PHILLIPS/DRAKE
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
322 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2015
Plenty of debris cloudiness overhead as a result of convection that
affected western Kentucky early this morning. Within the last hour
we have seen storms develop where the old outflow boundary is
interacting with the Cumberland Escarpment, but these storms are
already pushing onto the Plateau as we speak. Main challenge is
timing and impact of the round, or rounds of storms that could
affect mainly central Kentucky through tonight.
Even the hi-res models seem to really be struggling from one run to
the next, so this is quite a low-confidence forecast. A couple of
weak swirls were apparent in visible imagery over southern Illinois
and western Kentucky, but even this juicy environment is not
responding yet. Earlier HRRR runs have seemed to be the only models
with any handle on initial conditions, and have hinted that one
round of convection could come through in the hours just before
sunset, with others keying on the actual front which would arrive
around midnight. Less confident in the SPC slight risk as progged
DCAPE is well out of sync with current analysis, and the effective
source of lift remains unclear. Best chance is from roughly 22Z to
05Z Tue, but not likely to affect that entire time period.
Even with the low-confidence forecast, any storms that do develop
could be prolific rain producers due to high precipitable water and
storm motion parallel to a nearly stationary boundary. Flash Flood
Guidance is quite low especially across the Bluegrass, where 1-hr
FFG is 1.5 inches or less in many places. Therefore will continue
with the Flash Flood Watch until Tuesday morning, but no extension
is planned unless convective trends show themselves more clearly.
Whatever organized storms we see should clear the area around
midnight or not too long after. Wind shift arrives by mid-morning,
but we`ll hang on to high dewpoints and chance POPs through the day
as fropa seems to occur in pieces. Mid-level WNW winds picking up to
around 30 kt could support a few strong storms with gusty winds over
east-central KY, but organized SVR potential is farther north and
east as our precip chances will be diminishing as the afternoon
progresses. Chance POPs in the middle of the day will be dropping
off by mid/late afternoon, with only south central KY in a slight
chance for storms for Tue night. Drier air will be filtering in,
with dewpoints dropping into the lower/mid 60s and temps dropping to
the upper 60s/near 70.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2015
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature generally northwest flow across the Ohio Valley, as ridging
over the south-central CONUS remains in place. This ridging will
actually build NNE into the region by this weekend, bringing a
return to the hot and humid conditions.
A weak frontal boundary will have pushed into TN at the start of the
long term period. There is some discrepancy in the guidance as to
how far south this boundary will get, which will be the deciding
factor as to whether or not southern KY ends up dry. For now, will
continue with slight chance pops across southern KY Wednesday into
Thursday as impulses riding along this boundary may be enough to
bring precip into the region, but suspect most will end up dry.
Given the majority of the region will be on the northern side of the
front, temperatures and humidity values will be rather comfortable.
Look for highs in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s, perhaps pushing into the upper 60s over southern KY.
Heading into Friday and through the upcoming weekend, upper-level
ridging will build back into the Ohio Valley which will bring
increasing heat and humidity. The region will still be on the
periphery of the mid-level westerlies/northwesterlies, so cannot
completely rule out thunderstorm chances this weekend. It appears
the best chance for a disturbance to impact the region may come
Saturday night into Sunday, but confidence in that scenario is quite
low and does not warrant any higher mention than just slight chance
to chance POPs (20-30%). Otherwise, it will be hot and humid as
upper-level ridging builds in and 850mb temps rise back to near
20C. Look for highs back in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat
indices from 95-100 degrees at times.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 1250 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2015
Decent cu field already developing anywhere that the mid/high cloud
deck has thinned. Bases are only between 3-4K feet as temp/dewpoint
spreads are not that big. Expect enough continued cu development for
ceilings this afternoon, but should remain VFR. Otherwise we`ll
remain convectively quiet until very late in the afternoon, at which
point a weakening precip shield now moving across southern Illinois
will arrive.
Best chance for storms will be this evening, either with the leading
upper impulse or if convection develops along the actual front,
which would swing in closer to midnight. Still enough uncertainty in
the timing to limit the mention to VCTS/CB over a period longer than
we expect actual impacts. Will stay VFR, but brief IFR will likely
accompany any thunderstorm that directly impacts an airport.
SW winds will come around to NW around daybreak for SDF, but more
like mid to late morning in BWG and LEX.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KYZ029>043-045>049-
054>057-065>067-077-078-081-082.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR INZ078-079-091-092.
&&
$$
Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE LATEST HI RES
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS...THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY INITIATING QUITE WELL OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE
LATEST HRRR...DON/T EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY START TICKING UP TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING TO SLOW
DOWN THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ALSO...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE OUR FORECAST MATCHED UP WITH THE
ONGOING CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GETTING INTO THE MIX BY 15 OR 16Z. ASIDE FROM
INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS OVERNIGHT.
PIKE...ROCKCASTLE...AND LAUREL COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR WERE
EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAIN AT AFD ISSUANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH SUN RISE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ALL POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL THEN BECOME NUMEROUS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS IN GENERAL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
WEATHER...SO A MODIFIED BLEND OF MODEL DATA WAS USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...RIGHT AT NORMAL TOMORROW...AND SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. TODAYS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW STRAY
READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 90 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE
BALMY...WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TAP. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY SHOULD COME IN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL...WITH MAX READINGS IN
THE MID 80S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
WHILE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CERTAINLY LOOKS QUIETER
AND LESS ACTIVE...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ALL
REVOLVING AROUND EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES IT
ON TUESDAY. GFS PUSHES THIS BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTH...WITH DRY
WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
UP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF KENTUCKY WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF WET WEATHER LATELY AND THE TENDENCY
FOR FRONTS TO NOT MAKE A GOOD PUSH SOUTH THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. PLAN TO KEEP THINGS IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE FOR POPS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. NORTHERN KENTUCKY...HAS A BETTER SHOT OF HAVING A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
BRINGING OUR NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
DRY. THUS...WILL JUST STAY WITH A COMPROMISED APPROACH AND GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES AS NO MATTER THE SOLUTION...WE SHOULD SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA...OR EVEN IF IT
DOESN`T...WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SKY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE A MIX OF SCT AND BKN UPPER
END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION
TO THE ALREADY HIGH MOISTURE RATES...ANY SHOWERS WHICH DO AFFECT
TAF SITES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE EXACT
IMPACTS FROM THIS FOG ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...SO WHILE
ONLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...SOME MOMENTS OF EVEN LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR DAWN AS SOME OF THE
VALLEY FOG LIFTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE
ON INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. VIS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO SOME
VARYING DEGREE AT THE TAF SITE UNDER ANY STORM WHICH AFFECTS THEM.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LARGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MUCH STRONGER WIND
GUSTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1057 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE LATEST HI RES
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS...THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY INITIATING QUITE WELL OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE
LATEST HRRR...DON/T EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY START TICKING UP TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING TO SLOW
DOWN THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ALSO...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE OUR FORECAST MATCHED UP WITH THE
ONGOING CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GETTING INTO THE MIX BY 15 OR 16Z. ASIDE FROM
INGESTING THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS OVERNIGHT.
PIKE...ROCKCASTLE...AND LAUREL COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR WERE
EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAIN AT AFD ISSUANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH SUN RISE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ALL POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL THEN BECOME NUMEROUS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS IN GENERAL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
WEATHER...SO A MODIFIED BLEND OF MODEL DATA WAS USED TO CREATE THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...RIGHT AT NORMAL TOMORROW...AND SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. TODAYS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW STRAY
READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 90 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE
BALMY...WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TAP. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY SHOULD COME IN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL...WITH MAX READINGS IN
THE MID 80S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
WHILE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CERTAINLY LOOKS QUIETER
AND LESS ACTIVE...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ALL
REVOLVING AROUND EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES IT
ON TUESDAY. GFS PUSHES THIS BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTH...WITH DRY
WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
UP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF KENTUCKY WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF WET WEATHER LATELY AND THE TENDENCY
FOR FRONTS TO NOT MAKE A GOOD PUSH SOUTH THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. PLAN TO KEEP THINGS IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE FOR POPS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. NORTHERN KENTUCKY...HAS A BETTER SHOT OF HAVING A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
BRINGING OUR NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
DRY. THUS...WILL JUST STAY WITH A COMPROMISED APPROACH AND GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES AS NO MATTER THE SOLUTION...WE SHOULD SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA...OR EVEN IF IT
DOESN`T...WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR DURING
DRY PERIODS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING INTENSE
RAIN SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PEAK ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
649 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
THE DILEMMA TODAY IS HOW TO RECONCILE 2 MCS/S WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAT ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ONE MCS IS CURRENTLY RAINING
ITSELF OUT OVER OUR REGION...WHILE A SECOND ONE IS MOVING EASTWARD
OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THERE IS A CORRIDOR
OF CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXTENDING
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FROM REYNOLDS COUNTY NORTHWESTWARD.
THE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FIRST MCS...SLOWLY
DISSIPATING IT AS IT MOVES OVER WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH 14Z. IT DOES
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION FROM REYNOLDS COUNTY
WESTWARD. IT TAKES THE BULK OF THE WESTERN MCS EASTWARD...KEEPING
IT NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH 18Z. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE REYNOLDS COUNTY CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND
IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A PIEDMONT TO CAPE GIRARDEAU LINE.
CONTEMPLATED JOINING SGF AND LSX IN ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ENOUGH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE ZONE THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE
A MAJOR ISSUE IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE RAIN OVER THE AREA SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE...TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 105 OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE
PURCHASE AND LAKES AREAS OF WEST KENTUCKY...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THIS FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS THAT HAVE TO COME TOGETHER TO MAKE
IT HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH. IF I WOULD HAVE
ISSUED AN ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE IT WOULD HAVE ONLY BEEN FOR
BUTLER...RIPLEY AND CARTER COUNTIES...WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
MONITOR RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ENOUGH.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING IS QUITE LOW.
THE GENERAL TRENDS ARE FOR BETTER CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE KS/MO MCS GLANCES
BY THE REGION. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT IS STILL SUPPOSED TO REACH THE
AREA...SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY...SO WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED IF MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA IS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE 925MB OR
850MB FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THIS SIGNAL WAS THERE 24 HOURS AGO...SO WILL KEEP 30-40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PROBABLY HAVE TOO MUCH POP LEFT OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
IF THERE IS TO BE CONVECTION IN THE AREA IN THESE PERIODS IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE IN OUR WESTERN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES.
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
COOLING TREND IS FORECAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ENJOY!
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CENTERS AROUND THE BEHAVIOR OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
VARIATIONS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY /AND TO WHAT EXTENT/ THE RIDGE
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY MORE MODEL AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS. TAKING A BLEND
OF ALL THE MODELS...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL RETURN TO HOTTER AND
MORE HUMID WEATHER ALONG WITH SMALL DAILY PRECIP CHANCES.
AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT APPEARS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER OUR REGION. THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
FUNNEL RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.
SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT POPS OCCASIONALLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S...EVEN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PLAINS RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE RIDGE WILL NOT BUILD EAST SUFFICIENTLY TO QUASH ALL
CHANCES OF CONVECTION. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES IN THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 90 ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME VERY WEAK AT
LOWER AND MID LEVELS. ANY EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL BE VERY
SLIGHT. ISOLATED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS IN MOST AREAS. ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF ALL
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME MVFR RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MEANTIME. WINDS SHOULD RECOVER TO SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL
ARRIVE AT KCGI AROUND 18Z...AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TS POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONFINED TO KCGI AND KPAH...WITH ONLY SHOWERS AT KEVV AND KOWB.
CANNOT RULE OUT MORE CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO ADD IT TO THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT MAY REACH KCGI AND KEVV BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT ON
THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
358 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
THE DILEMMA TODAY IS HOW TO RECONCILE 2 MCS/S WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAT ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ONE MCS IS CURRENTLY RAINING
ITSELF OUT OVER OUR REGION...WHILE A SECOND ONE IS MOVING EASTWARD
OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THERE IS A CORRIDOR
OF CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXTENDING
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FROM REYNOLDS COUNTY NORTHWESTWARD.
THE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FIRST MCS...SLOWLY
DISSIPATING IT AS IT MOVES OVER WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH 14Z. IT DOES
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION FROM REYNOLDS COUNTY
WESTWARD. IT TAKES THE BULK OF THE WESTERN MCS EASTWARD...KEEPING
IT NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH 18Z. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE REYNOLDS COUNTY CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND
IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A PIEDMONT TO CAPE GIRARDEAU LINE.
CONTEMPLATED JOINING SGF AND LSX IN ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ENOUGH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE ZONE THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE
A MAJOR ISSUE IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE RAIN OVER THE AREA SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE...TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 105 OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE
PURCHASE AND LAKES AREAS OF WEST KENTUCKY...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THIS FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS THAT HAVE TO COME TOGETHER TO MAKE
IT HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH. IF I WOULD HAVE
ISSUED AN ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE IT WOULD HAVE ONLY BEEN FOR
BUTLER...RIPLEY AND CARTER COUNTIES...WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
MONITOR RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ENOUGH.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEYOND THIS MORNING IS QUITE LOW.
THE GENERAL TRENDS ARE FOR BETTER CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE KS/MO MCS GLANCES
BY THE REGION. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT IS STILL SUPPOSED TO REACH THE
AREA...SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY...SO WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED IF MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA IS DRY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE 925MB OR
850MB FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THIS SIGNAL WAS THERE 24 HOURS AGO...SO WILL KEEP 30-40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PROBABLY HAVE TOO MUCH POP LEFT OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
IF THERE IS TO BE CONVECTION IN THE AREA IN THESE PERIODS IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE IN OUR WESTERN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES.
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
COOLING TREND IS FORECAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ENJOY!
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CENTERS AROUND THE BEHAVIOR OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
VARIATIONS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY /AND TO WHAT EXTENT/ THE RIDGE
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY MORE MODEL AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS. TAKING A BLEND
OF ALL THE MODELS...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL RETURN TO HOTTER AND
MORE HUMID WEATHER ALONG WITH SMALL DAILY PRECIP CHANCES.
AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT APPEARS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER OUR REGION. THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
FUNNEL RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.
SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT POPS OCCASIONALLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S...EVEN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PLAINS RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE RIDGE WILL NOT BUILD EAST SUFFICIENTLY TO QUASH ALL
CHANCES OF CONVECTION. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES IN THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 90 ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME VERY WEAK AT
LOWER AND MID LEVELS. ANY EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL BE VERY
SLIGHT. ISOLATED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS IN MOST AREAS. ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF
KOWB EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL RE-INTRODUCE VICINITY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM AT
KEVV AND KOWB LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AOB 6 KNOTS TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE MONDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
130 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.AVIATION...
RIDGE ALOFT WITH KEEP STORMS AND CLOUDS IN CHECK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ATTM. BUT THOSE LCTNS GETTING THE
STORMS WILL SEE LWR CLD DECKS. CONDS TO IMPROVE TWRDS SS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND PRIMARILY ACRS
PORTIONS OF ACADIANA AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
MEANWHILE...THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE ONGOING HEAT WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR 90 DEGREES AT 10 AM THIS MORNING ON
THEIR WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL ABV 100 DEGREES WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA APPROACHING 110.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF AN
ALEXANDRIA TO EUNICE TO PECAN ISLAND LINE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS...BUT THESE CHANGES WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/
AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
BPT WHERE I LEFT IN THE TEMPO MVFR CIG/VIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...TROPICAL CU UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND SOME
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AS DEW POINT SPREAD IS WITHIN A DEGREE.
INCLUDED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACADIANA TERMINALS LFT AND ARA.
THE GFS AND HRRR AGREE AS DOES PERSISTENCE.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR THE RADAR IS
CLEAR.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THERE
IS AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
THAT WILL BE MOVING WEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING UP OVER 108
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY STILL
LOOKS GOOD.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS MOISTURE MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DIAL BACK THE AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD. WHILE THERE
ARE RAIN CHANCES...THE POPS ARE STILL BELOW CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
FOR LATE WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER POPS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...BUT STILL
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
27
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 96 76 95 / 10 20 10 20
LCH 78 93 78 92 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 78 93 78 93 / 10 30 10 40
BPT 77 94 78 93 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ028-029-032-033-
043>045-052>055.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1047 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY DRY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND PRIMARILY ACRS
PORTIONS OF ACADIANA AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
MEANWHILE...THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE ONGOING HEAT WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR 90 DEGREES AT 10 AM THIS MORNING ON
THEIR WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL ABV 100 DEGREES WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA APPROACHING 110.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF AN
ALEXANDRIA TO EUNICE TO PECAN ISLAND LINE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR
OBS/TRENDS...BUT THESE CHANGES WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/
AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
BPT WHERE I LEFT IN THE TEMPO MVFR CIG/VIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...TROPICAL CU UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND SOME
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AS DEW POINT SPREAD IS WITHIN A DEGREE.
INCLUDED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACADIANA TERMINALS LFT AND ARA.
THE GFS AND HRRR AGREE AS DOES PERSISTENCE.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR THE RADAR IS
CLEAR.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THERE
IS AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
THAT WILL BE MOVING WEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING UP OVER 108
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY STILL
LOOKS GOOD.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS MOISTURE MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DIAL BACK THE AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD. WHILE THERE
ARE RAIN CHANCES...THE POPS ARE STILL BELOW CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
FOR LATE WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER POPS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...BUT STILL
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
27
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 98 76 96 76 / 10 10 20 10
LCH 94 78 93 78 / 10 10 20 10
LFT 96 78 93 78 / 20 10 30 10
BPT 95 77 94 78 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ028-029-032-033-
043>045-052>055.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
BPT WHERE I LEFT IN THE TEMPO MVFR CIG/VIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...TROPICAL CU UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND SOME
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AS DEW POINT SPREAD IS WITHIN A DEGREE.
INCLUDED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACADIANA TERMINALS LFT AND ARA.
THE GFS AND HRRR AGREE AS DOES PERSISTENCE.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR THE RADAR IS
CLEAR.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THERE
IS AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
THAT WILL BE MOVING WEST DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING UP OVER 108
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY STILL
LOOKS GOOD.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS MOISTURE MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DIAL BACK THE AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A TAD. WHILE THERE
ARE RAIN CHANCES...THE POPS ARE STILL BELOW CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
FOR LATE WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER POPS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP ONCE AGAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...BUT STILL
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
27
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 98 76 96 76 / 10 10 20 10
LCH 94 78 93 78 / 10 10 20 10
LFT 96 78 93 78 / 30 10 30 10
BPT 95 77 94 78 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ028-029-032-033-043>045-052>055.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1127 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
11:30 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
ONE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO HANCOCK COUNTY AND ANOTHER THIN
LINE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT W/HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME STRONGER STORMS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY W/THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. SPC UPDATED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK W/A
MARGINAL RISK FOR WESTERN MAINE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE MAIN ACTION ATTM WAS ACROSS FAR WNW MAINE W/TRAINING CELLS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. RADAR
ESTIMATES OF UP TO 2"/HR IN THE STRONGER CELLS. CELLS MOVING ALONG
THE UPPER SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR RE-GENERATION OF THE STORMS AND
THEREFORE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. PWATS IN THIS REGION UP AROUND
1.5 INCHES W/GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM 925-850MBS PER THE
LATEST MESO- ANALYSIS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS IGNITING ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WELL FORECASTED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW. LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER E, ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE
THANKS TO A SSE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING HEATING. ACTIVITY TO
THE W IS FORECAST TO BREAK UP AS IT PUSHES E INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION IS SHOWN BY MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL TO MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THIS
ACTION WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION W/THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOUNDING
PROFILES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR STRONG CONVECTION, BUT MUCAPES
OF 600+ JOULES AND COLUMN MOISTENING UP THROUGH 700MBS LATER THIS
EVENING PLUS INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT
SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THREAT. DECIDED TO GO W/BASIN QPF OF 1.25+ INCHES THROUGH WEST AND
NORTHWEST MAINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE TRAINING CELLS.
ALL ACTION WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE ESE LATER TONIGHT W/COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO
ADD FOG INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT BEFORE THE FROPA W/DEEP LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AS SEEING THE FOG. UNSETTLED ON WEDNESDAY W/THE UPPER TROF AXIS
FORECAST TO ACROSS THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE LOOKS TO BE
IN THE LLVLS AROUND 850MBS. SOME INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT MARGINAL
AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THE MENTION OF TSTMS AND KEPT JUST SHOWERS ATTM.
LATER CREWS CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WARD AND CROSS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF MAINE FRIDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...
QPF AND SKY. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW.
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS ALL. WILL USE THE
MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A VERY BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN DRAG ITS ATTENDANT FRONT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT W/SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT.
FOG WILL BE A THREAT FOR KBGR AND KBHB INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A
PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG KEEPING NAVIGATION TRICKY W/VSBYS BELOW 1 NM. KEPT
FOG THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY UNTIL GOOD MIXING W/WINDS VEERING TO
THE W ALLOWING FOR CLEARING. BROUGHT WINDS UP TO 10-15KT WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE NO MORE THAN 3 FT AND
THIS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GFS40. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE COMPOSED OF
LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUPS COMBINING TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS. THE
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF SOUTHERLY 6 SECOND GROUP AND
SOUTHEASTERLY 9-10 SECOND GROUP. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
YEAR TO DATE IT IS STILL THE COLDEST YEAR ON RECORD AT
BANGOR AND HOULTON, AND THE 6TH COOLEST AT CARIBOU.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
923 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
923 PM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN MAINE THIS
EVENING AND WILL PUSH OFF THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MORNING. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED
OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES DETECTED WITHIN THE PAST 90 MINUTES. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.34" ON THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...AND THE RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT W/HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME STRONGER STORMS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY W/THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. SPC UPDATED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK W/A
MARGINAL RISK FOR WESTERN MAINE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE MAIN ACTION ATTM WAS ACROSS FAR WNW MAINE W/TRAINING CELLS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. RADAR
ESTIMATES OF UP TO 2"/HR IN THE STRONGER CELLS. CELLS MOVING ALONG
THE UPPER SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR RE-GENERATION OF THE STORMS AND
THEREFORE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. PWATS IN THIS REGION UP AROUND
1.5 INCHES W/GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM 925-850MBS PER THE
LATEST MESO- ANALYSIS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS IGNITING ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WELL FORECASTED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW. LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER E, ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE
THANKS TO A SSE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING HEATING. ACTIVITY TO
THE W IS FORECAST TO BREAK UP AS IT PUSHES E INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION IS SHOWN BY MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL TO MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THIS
ACTION WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION W/THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOUNDING
PROFILES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR STRONG CONVECTION, BUT MUCAPES
OF 600+ JOULES AND COLUMN MOISTENING UP THROUGH 700MBS LATER THIS
EVENING PLUS INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT
SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THREAT. DECIDED TO GO W/BASIN QPF OF 1.25+ INCHES THROUGH WEST AND
NORTHWEST MAINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE TRAINING CELLS.
ALL ACTION WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH TO THE ESE LATER TONIGHT W/COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO
ADD FOG INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT BEFORE THE FROPA W/DEEP LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AS SEEING THE FOG. UNSETTLED ON WEDNESDAY W/THE UPPER TROF AXIS
FORECAST TO ACROSS THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE LOOKS TO BE
IN THE LLVLS AROUND 850MBS. SOME INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT MARGINAL
AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THE MENTION OF TSTMS AND KEPT JUST SHOWERS ATTM.
LATER CREWS CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WARD AND CROSS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF MAINE FRIDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...
QPF AND SKY. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW.
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS ALL. WILL USE THE
MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A VERY BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN DRAG ITS ATTENDANT FRONT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT W/SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT.
FOG WILL BE A THREAT FOR KBGR AND KBHB INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A
PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG KEEPING NAVIGATION TRICKY W/VSBYS BELOW 1 NM. KEPT
FOG THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY UNTIL GOOD MIXING W/WINDS VEERING TO
THE W ALLOWING FOR CLEARING. BROUGHT WINDS UP TO 10-15KT WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE NO MORE THAN 3 FT AND
THIS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GFS40. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE COMPOSED OF
LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUPS COMBINING TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS. THE
COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF SOUTHERLY 6 SECOND GROUP AND
SOUTHEASTERLY 9-10 SECOND GROUP. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...YEAR TO DATE IT IS STILL THE COLDEST YEAR ON RECORD AT
BANGOR AND HOULTON, AND THE 6TH COOLEST AT CARIBOU.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
328 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER E OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE MOVING THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING INTO MN. SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT JUST AHEAD OF THIS FNT AND MOVING THRU NW LK SUP
TOWARD THE KEWEENAW. BUT WITH AN ABSENCE OF MSTR INFLOW INTO THE
SHRTWV AND NOCTURNAL COOLING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME TO THE S OF SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO
THE N CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK. OTRW...STEADY WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FNT ARE RESULTING IN WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON POPS TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH APRCHG COLD FNT AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP IS FCST TO
MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD TO NEAR THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BY 00Z THIS
EVNG. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SWING THRU THE CWA...REACHING
THE SE ZNS ARND 18Z BEFORE CONTINUING AWAY TO THE SE IN THE AFTN.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE
NRN TIER CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/CORE OF SHARPER FORCING...EXPECT
A MAINLY DRY FROPA BECAUSE THE TIMING WL BE AHEAD OF THE FULL IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING. A BIT CONCERNED THE LATER ARRIVAL EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE SE CWA WITH SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC WITH LK BREEZE
OFF LK MI COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TS THERE AS HINTED AT
BY SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS...SO DID MENTION SOME SCHC POPS IN
THIS AREA BEFORE MORE VIGOROUS DRYING AND THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER
SCALE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC ENDS THE PCPN CHCS BY LATE AFTN.
EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FROPA WITH H925 WSW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS SHIFTING TO THE WNW IN THE
AFTN. EXPECT THE HIEST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S OVER THE SCNTRAL. COOL
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO
FALL TO NEAR 10C OVER THE NW CWA BY 00Z WL LIMIT THE DAYTIME DIURNAL
TEMP RISE TO THE NW.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME MID LVL MSTR ARE FCST TO SWING SE INTO
THE UPR LKS WITHIN DEEPENING UPR TROF. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLDS
ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY PCPN
OVER UPR MI. WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. OVERNGT LOWS WL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
SOME UPR 40S AT SOME OF THE COOL SPOTS. BUT STEADY NW WINDS WL TEND
TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
TUESDAY EVENING WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE DEPARTING BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MODELS SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND MAYBE JUST A FEW DIURNAL CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DAKOTAS AND THEN NEARING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...THINK THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER
OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH DEEP MIXING DURING MOST AFTERNOONS. DID TREND
DEWPOINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH PUSHES RH
VALUES INTO THE LOWER 30S. BUT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW
15KTS...THINK FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED EVEN WITH THE
RECENT DRIER WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY BY
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS AND IN TURN WILL LIMIT THE POPS FROM
BEING ABOVE THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHERE THEY WILL BE ASSISTED
BY THE BETTER TIMING WITH PEAK HEATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA MOVING INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THAT WAVE...AN UPPER RIDGE
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
EXPANSION OF CU/SC CLOUDS ACROSS TAF SITES INTO MID AFTN WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT BY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. ONLY OTHER
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...OVER 30 KTS INTO MID AFTN AT
KCMX...AND RESULTING IN CROSSWIND AT KSAW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE TNGT BUT THERE MAY BE LINGERING SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS. MORE VFR CU/SC EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WEST WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KCMX IN THE AFTN. MORE
TYPICAL LAKE BREEZE DIRECTIONS EXPECTED AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
LOW PRESSURE FROM W ONTARIO TO JUST NW OF JAMES BAY WILL SWING INTO
S HUDSON BAY AND W QUEBEC TODAY WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...25KT WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY EDGE E...AND BUILD ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO
AROUND 20KTS OR LESS. VERY PATCHY FOG /MAINLY N/ WILL ALSO DIMINISH
MONDAY. EXPECT A N PLAINS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT TO SHIFT TO N ONTARIO
BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND W LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
153 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER E OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE MOVING THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING INTO MN. SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT JUST AHEAD OF THIS FNT AND MOVING THRU NW LK SUP
TOWARD THE KEWEENAW. BUT WITH AN ABSENCE OF MSTR INFLOW INTO THE
SHRTWV AND NOCTURNAL COOLING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME TO THE S OF SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO
THE N CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK. OTRW...STEADY WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FNT ARE RESULTING IN WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON POPS TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH APRCHG COLD FNT AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP IS FCST TO
MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD TO NEAR THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BY 00Z THIS
EVNG. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SWING THRU THE CWA...REACHING
THE SE ZNS ARND 18Z BEFORE CONTINUING AWAY TO THE SE IN THE AFTN.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE
NRN TIER CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/CORE OF SHARPER FORCING...EXPECT
A MAINLY DRY FROPA BECAUSE THE TIMING WL BE AHEAD OF THE FULL IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING. A BIT CONCERNED THE LATER ARRIVAL EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE SE CWA WITH SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC WITH LK BREEZE
OFF LK MI COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TS THERE AS HINTED AT
BY SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS...SO DID MENTION SOME SCHC POPS IN
THIS AREA BEFORE MORE VIGOROUS DRYING AND THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER
SCALE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC ENDS THE PCPN CHCS BY LATE AFTN.
EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FROPA WITH H925 WSW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS SHIFTING TO THE WNW IN THE
AFTN. EXPECT THE HIEST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S OVER THE SCNTRAL. COOL
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO
FALL TO NEAR 10C OVER THE NW CWA BY 00Z WL LIMIT THE DAYTIME DIURNAL
TEMP RISE TO THE NW.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME MID LVL MSTR ARE FCST TO SWING SE INTO
THE UPR LKS WITHIN DEEPENING UPR TROF. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLDS
ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY PCPN
OVER UPR MI. WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. OVERNGT LOWS WL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
SOME UPR 40S AT SOME OF THE COOL SPOTS. BUT STEADY NW WINDS WL TEND
TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
IMPACTS...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE WITHIN PREDICTABLE RANGE.
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BUT STILL VERY UNCERTAIN ON THAT ASPECT.
MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MAY
PASS THROUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW GIVEN LIMITED
COVERAGE/PRECIP AMOUNT/CONFIDENCE.
MAY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND/OR NEAR THE WI BORDER
LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS SW OF
THE CWA ON WED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES NE. TIMING/LOCATION MAY BE CHANGED IF ANY DISTURBANCES FORM
THAT CAUSE THE FRONT/MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SURGE FARTHER N.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT IS TIED TO WILL MOVE ACROSS
MANITOBA CANADA AND HUDSON BAY FRI INTO SUN...DRAGGING A SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DEFINITELY SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER S THAN THE ECMWF. WILL USE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS INVOLVED...WHICH WILL SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. SUN LOOKS DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST TUE AND WED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THU
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN. LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGING W
OF THE REGION IS FOR THE MOST PART HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE END OF
JULY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. CFS ALSO POINTS TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE MONTH...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO START AUGUST OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
EXPANSION OF CU/SC CLOUDS ACROSS TAF SITES INTO MID AFTN WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT BY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. ONLY OTHER
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS...OVER 30 KTS INTO MID AFTN AT
KCMX...AND RESULTING IN CROSSWIND AT KSAW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE TNGT BUT THERE MAY BE LINGERING SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS. MORE VFR CU/SC EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WEST WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KCMX IN THE AFTN. MORE
TYPICAL LAKE BREEZE DIRECTIONS EXPECTED AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
LOW PRESSURE FROM W ONTARIO TO JUST NW OF JAMES BAY WILL SWING INTO
S HUDSON BAY AND W QUEBEC TODAY WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...25KT WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY EDGE E...AND BUILD ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO
AROUND 20KTS OR LESS. VERY PATCHY FOG /MAINLY N/ WILL ALSO DIMINISH
MONDAY. EXPECT A N PLAINS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT TO SHIFT TO N ONTARIO
BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND W LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER E OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE MOVING THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING INTO MN. SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT JUST AHEAD OF THIS FNT AND MOVING THRU NW LK SUP
TOWARD THE KEWEENAW. BUT WITH AN ABSENCE OF MSTR INFLOW INTO THE
SHRTWV AND NOCTURNAL COOLING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME TO THE S OF SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO
THE N CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK. OTRW...STEADY WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FNT ARE RESULTING IN WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON POPS TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH APRCHG COLD FNT AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP IS FCST TO
MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD TO NEAR THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BY 00Z THIS
EVNG. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SWING THRU THE CWA...REACHING
THE SE ZNS ARND 18Z BEFORE CONTINUING AWAY TO THE SE IN THE AFTN.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE
NRN TIER CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/CORE OF SHARPER FORCING...EXPECT
A MAINLY DRY FROPA BECAUSE THE TIMING WL BE AHEAD OF THE FULL IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING. A BIT CONCERNED THE LATER ARRIVAL EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE SE CWA WITH SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC WITH LK BREEZE
OFF LK MI COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TS THERE AS HINTED AT
BY SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS...SO DID MENTION SOME SCHC POPS IN
THIS AREA BEFORE MORE VIGOROUS DRYING AND THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER
SCALE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC ENDS THE PCPN CHCS BY LATE AFTN.
EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FROPA WITH H925 WSW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS SHIFTING TO THE WNW IN THE
AFTN. EXPECT THE HIEST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S OVER THE SCNTRAL. COOL
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO
FALL TO NEAR 10C OVER THE NW CWA BY 00Z WL LIMIT THE DAYTIME DIURNAL
TEMP RISE TO THE NW.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME MID LVL MSTR ARE FCST TO SWING SE INTO
THE UPR LKS WITHIN DEEPENING UPR TROF. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLDS
ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY PCPN
OVER UPR MI. WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. OVERNGT LOWS WL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
SOME UPR 40S AT SOME OF THE COOL SPOTS. BUT STEADY NW WINDS WL TEND
TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
IMPACTS...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE WITHIN PREDICTABLE RANGE.
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BUT STILL VERY UNCERTAIN ON THAT ASPECT.
MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MAY
PASS THROUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW GIVEN LIMITED
COVERAGE/PRECIP AMOUNT/CONFIDENCE.
MAY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND/OR NEAR THE WI BORDER
LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS SW OF
THE CWA ON WED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES NE. TIMING/LOCATION MAY BE CHANGED IF ANY DISTURBANCES FORM
THAT CAUSE THE FRONT/MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SURGE FARTHER N.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT IS TIED TO WILL MOVE ACROSS
MANITOBA CANADA AND HUDSON BAY FRI INTO SUN...DRAGGING A SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DEFINITELY SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER S THAN THE ECMWF. WILL USE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS INVOLVED...WHICH WILL SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. SUN LOOKS DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST TUE AND WED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THU
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN. LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGING W
OF THE REGION IS FOR THE MOST PART HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE END OF
JULY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. CFS ALSO POINTS TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE MONTH...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO START AUGUST OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN EXPANSION OF SC TODAY AS SOME MOISTER AIR
ARRIVES FM THE NW FOLLOWING A MORNING COLD FROPA...TIMING DURING
PERIOD OF DIURNAL HEATING SUGGESTS VFR CIGS WL PREVAIL. MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HEATING WL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS
EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
TNGT WITH INFLUX OF DRIER NEAR SFC AIR EVEN IF THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING CLDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
LOW PRESSURE FROM W ONTARIO TO JUST NW OF JAMES BAY WILL SWING INTO
S HUDSON BAY AND W QUEBEC TODAY WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...25KT WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY EDGE E...AND BUILD ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO
AROUND 20KTS OR LESS. VERY PATCHY FOG /MAINLY N/ WILL ALSO DIMINISH
MONDAY. EXPECT A N PLAINS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT TO SHIFT TO N ONTARIO
BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND W LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER E OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE MOVING THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT STRETCHING INTO MN. SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT JUST AHEAD OF THIS FNT AND MOVING THRU NW LK SUP
TOWARD THE KEWEENAW. BUT WITH AN ABSENCE OF MSTR INFLOW INTO THE
SHRTWV AND NOCTURNAL COOLING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME TO THE S OF SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO
THE N CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK. OTRW...STEADY WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FNT ARE RESULTING IN WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS EARLY THIS MRNG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON POPS TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH APRCHG COLD FNT AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP IS FCST TO
MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD TO NEAR THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BY 00Z THIS
EVNG. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SWING THRU THE CWA...REACHING
THE SE ZNS ARND 18Z BEFORE CONTINUING AWAY TO THE SE IN THE AFTN.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE
NRN TIER CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/CORE OF SHARPER FORCING...EXPECT
A MAINLY DRY FROPA BECAUSE THE TIMING WL BE AHEAD OF THE FULL IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING. A BIT CONCERNED THE LATER ARRIVAL EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE SE CWA WITH SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC WITH LK BREEZE
OFF LK MI COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TS THERE AS HINTED AT
BY SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS...SO DID MENTION SOME SCHC POPS IN
THIS AREA BEFORE MORE VIGOROUS DRYING AND THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER
SCALE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC ENDS THE PCPN CHCS BY LATE AFTN.
EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING THE COLD
FROPA WITH H925 WSW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS SHIFTING TO THE WNW IN THE
AFTN. EXPECT THE HIEST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S OVER THE SCNTRAL. COOL
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO
FALL TO NEAR 10C OVER THE NW CWA BY 00Z WL LIMIT THE DAYTIME DIURNAL
TEMP RISE TO THE NW.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV/SOME MID LVL MSTR ARE FCST TO SWING SE INTO
THE UPR LKS WITHIN DEEPENING UPR TROF. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLDS
ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY PCPN
OVER UPR MI. WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. OVERNGT LOWS WL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
SOME UPR 40S AT SOME OF THE COOL SPOTS. BUT STEADY NW WINDS WL TEND
TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
IMPACTS...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE WITHIN PREDICTABLE RANGE.
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BUT STILL VERY UNCERTAIN ON THAT ASPECT.
MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MAY
PASS THROUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW GIVEN LIMITED
COVERAGE/PRECIP AMOUNT/CONFIDENCE.
MAY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND/OR NEAR THE WI BORDER
LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS SW OF
THE CWA ON WED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES NE. TIMING/LOCATION MAY BE CHANGED IF ANY DISTURBANCES FORM
THAT CAUSE THE FRONT/MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SURGE FARTHER N.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT IS TIED TO WILL MOVE ACROSS
MANITOBA CANADA AND HUDSON BAY FRI INTO SUN...DRAGGING A SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DEFINITELY SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER S THAN THE ECMWF. WILL USE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS INVOLVED...WHICH WILL SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. SUN LOOKS DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST TUE AND WED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THU
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN. LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGING W
OF THE REGION IS FOR THE MOST PART HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE END OF
JULY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. CFS ALSO POINTS TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE MONTH...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO START AUGUST OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS IS
EXPECTED AT KIWD AND KSAW OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AT THE SURFACE LATER
TONIGHT AT KCMX AND ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
AT KCMX WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 30 KTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
LOW PRESSURE FROM W ONTARIO TO JUST NW OF JAMES BAY WILL SWING INTO
S HUDSON BAY AND W QUEBEC TODAY WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...25KT WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY EDGE E...AND BUILD ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS RETURNING TO
AROUND 20KTS OR LESS. VERY PATCHY FOG /MAINLY N/ WILL ALSO DIMINISH
MONDAY. EXPECT A N PLAINS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT TO SHIFT TO N ONTARIO
BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND W LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAS REACHED KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES ATTM.
LATEST HRRR HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS OR
ADDED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE BWCAW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MAY
CLIP NORTH CENTRAL INTO NE MN THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 03Z AND JUST HAVE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS. MADE OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS OR A BIT NORTH OF THERE.
THE SHOWERS WERE DROPPING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND MAY BRUSH
PORTIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION DURING THE EVENING.
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE BORDER REGION. AS A RESULT...WE COULD SEE SOME
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH
COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT. WILL ALSO CARRY A SMALL POP IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PROVIDING
THE NORTHLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MEANING A WARMER
DAY FOR THE NORTHLAND. A WARM FRONT MIGHT SET UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND COULD HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GEM AND GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN
WITH THE WARM FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA.
FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE MODEL AGREEMENT.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS OR UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...BUT THERE ARE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT THE TROUGH PASSAGE SLOWS DOWN IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DLH/BRD/HYR BY 09Z AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT AND HAVE USED A
VCSH MENTION. WITH FROPA...WINDS TURN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
AFTER 12Z...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. VFR IS
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
INL 51 75 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 54 81 57 83 / 0 0 20 20
HYR 53 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 20
ASX 57 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1242 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT NOON AS MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHED. COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS MCV MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE,
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S. FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA COULD SEE HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105.
BYRD
&&
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION TRENDS ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP, NAM, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR SHOW THE LINE OF BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUING AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS. THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BEST WITH MASS FIELDS PICKING UP THE
CONVECTION PRETTY WELL AT THIS TIME. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST-
NORTHEAST THE STORMS WILL GET THIS MORNING...BUT HEAVY RAIN OVER
OUR EASTERN OZARK COUNTIES LOOKS LIKELY SO HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY. THE AREA OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.
SHOULD SEE THAT AREA GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS, BUT I DON`T THINK IT WILL TOTALLY FALL APART.
SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV THIS AFTERNOON
AS DIURNAL HEATING REINVIGORATES CONVECTION. COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THINK AT LEAST 40-50 POPS ARE
WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SECOND CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100
DEGREES AGAIN TODAY. THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES COME VERY NEAR
100 DEGREES (AND I CANNOT RULE OUT THERE WON`T BE SOME 100+ DEGREE
READINGS IN A FEW PLACES THIS AFTERNOON), FEEL THERE ARE TOO MANY
FACTORS AGAINST WIDESPREAD 100+ HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST PROBS
FOR RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NEAR I-70 AND INTO SOUTHEAST MO WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE DIURNALLY DEPENDENT SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OUR REGION THIS
EVENING AND WILL, OVER TIME, SUPPRESS THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
OVER OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTHERN
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY MORNING THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN MOST AREAS TO RESULT IN DRY WX WITH NIGHTTIME
MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE 50S NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW 60S
EXPECTED MOST ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
BENIGN LOW-MID 80S. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THEY TRAVERSE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN
THIS PERIOD.
THE OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM TO
THE ALREADY EXISTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW THAT IT LOOKS
LIKE WHERE THE FRONT WINDS UP EARLY THURSDAY MAY BE WHERE IT STAYS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES
FOR LATE WEEK. THE OTHER SOLUTION...WHICH WAS FAVORED UNTIL
RECENTLY...WAS THE FRONT PUSHING NORTH BRIEFLY AS A WARM FRONT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY BACKING AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK...THEIR LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE IS LOOKING
SLIMMER BY THE DAY.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS EXITED TAF SITES, SO KEPT TAFS DRY FOR NOW.
DID KEEP VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KUIN AND KCOU AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH
WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS EXITED METRO AREA, SO KEPT TAF DRY FOR NOW.
MAY NEED TO ADD VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS MENTION AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS
VEERING TO THE WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY THEN NORTH BY 13Z TUESDAY.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION TRENDS ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP, NAM, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR SHOW THE LINE OF BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUING AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS. THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BEST WITH MASS FIELDS PICKING UP THE
CONVECTION PRETTY WELL AT THIS TIME. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST-
NORTHEAST THE STORMS WILL GET THIS MORNING...BUT HEAVY RAIN OVER
OUR EASTERN OZARK COUNTIES LOOKS LIKELY SO HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY. THE AREA OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.
SHOULD SEE THAT AREA GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS, BUT I DON`T THINK IT WILL TOTALLY FALL APART.
SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV THIS AFTERNOON
AS DIURNAL HEATING REINVIGORATES CONVECTION. COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THINK AT LEAST 40-50 POPS ARE
WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SECOND CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100
DEGREES AGAIN TODAY. THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES COME VERY NEAR
100 DEGREES (AND I CANNOT RULE OUT THERE WON`T BE SOME 100+ DEGREE
READINGS IN A FEW PLACES THIS AFTERNOON), FEEL THERE ARE TOO MANY
FACTORS AGAINST WIDESPREAD 100+ HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST PROBS
FOR RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NEAR I-70 AND INTO SOUTHEAST MO WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE DIURNALLY DEPENDENT SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OUR REGION THIS
EVENING AND WILL, OVER TIME, SUPPRESS THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
OVER OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTHERN
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY MORNING THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN MOST AREAS TO RESULT IN DRY WX WITH NIGHTTIME
MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE 50S NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW 60S
EXPECTED MOST ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
BENIGN LOW-MID 80S. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THEY TRAVERSE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN
THIS PERIOD.
THE OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM TO
THE ALREADY EXISTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW THAT IT LOOKS
LIKE WHERE THE FRONT WINDS UP EARLY THURSDAY MAY BE WHERE IT STAYS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES
FOR LATE WEEK. THE OTHER SOLUTION...WHICH WAS FAVORED UNTIL
RECENTLY...WAS THE FRONT PUSHING NORTH BRIEFLY AS A WARM FRONT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY BACKING AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK...THEIR LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE IS LOOKING
SLIMMER BY THE DAY.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL RISE TO MVFR AND VFR. EXPECT THE
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING, BUT
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE IN STORMS
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WHICH IS WHY I DIDN`T HIT THE
THUNDERSTORMS HARDER IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. STORMS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY SHOULD
BE WEAKENING AFTER 02Z. COULD BE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
DID NOT PUT MENTION INTO TAFS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE MOVING EAST. THINK THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN REMAINING AS IT MOVES INTO THE STL AREA
AFTER 16Z...BUT I AM NOT CERTAIN OF THIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WEAKENING/MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 02Z.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO-
WASHINGTON MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON
IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION TRENDS ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP, NAM, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR SHOW THE LINE OF BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUING AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS. THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BEST WITH MASS FIELDS PICKING UP THE
CONVECTION PRETTY WELL AT THIS TIME. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST-
NORTHEAST THE STORMS WILL GET THIS MORNING...BUT HEAVY RAIN OVER
OUR EASTERN OZARK COUNTIES LOOKS LIKELY SO HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY. THE AREA OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.
SHOULD SEE THAT AREA GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS, BUT I DON`T THINK IT WILL TOTALLY FALL APART.
SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV THIS AFTERNOON
AS DIURNAL HEATING REINVIGORATES CONVECTION. COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THINK AT LEAST 40-50 POPS ARE
WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SECOND CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100
DEGREES AGAIN TODAY. THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES COME VERY NEAR
100 DEGREES (AND I CANNOT RULE OUT THERE WON`T BE SOME 100+ DEGREE
READINGS IN A FEW PLACES THIS AFTERNOON), FEEL THERE ARE TOO MANY
FACTORS AGAINST WIDESPREAD 100+ HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST PROBS
FOR RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS NEAR I-70 AND INTO SOUTHEAST MO WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE DIURNALLY DEPENDENT SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OUR REGION THIS
EVENING AND WILL, OVER TIME, SUPPRESS THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
OVER OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTHERN
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF OUR
REGION TUESDAY MORNING THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN MOST AREAS TO RESULT IN DRY WX WITH NIGHTTIME
MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE 50S NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW 60S
EXPECTED MOST ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY
BENIGN LOW-MID 80S. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THEY TRAVERSE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL TO RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN
THIS PERIOD.
THE OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM TO
THE ALREADY EXISTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW THAT IT LOOKS
LIKE WHERE THE FRONT WINDS UP EARLY THURSDAY MAY BE WHERE IT STAYS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES
FOR LATE WEEK. THE OTHER SOLUTION...WHICH WAS FAVORED UNTIL
RECENTLY...WAS THE FRONT PUSHING NORTH BRIEFLY AS A WARM FRONT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY BACKING AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK...THEIR LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE IS LOOKING
SLIMMER BY THE DAY.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
OUTFLOW BNDY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM KC REGION TO JUST S OF KJEF
TO KFAM AREA. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSRA THIS EVE.
EXPECT A TSRA COMPLEX TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS OR WRN MO OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE EWD IMPACTING TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND INTO MID
MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF LULL MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS FOR SUS/CPS AND PERHAPS COU BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND BEING
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON TIMING OF MORNING CONVECTION AND EXACT PLACEMENT...WHICH
MAY INSTEAD BE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMS BEFORE PUSHING S
OF THE TERMINALS. UIN CURRENTLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING
FG OVERNIGHT AND GOING FCST MAY NOT HAVE VSBYS LOW ENUF.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT TSRA TO IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY WITH A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO-
WASHINGTON MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON
IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
331 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CONVECTION TRENDS ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP, NAM, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR SHOW THE LINE OF BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUING AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS. THE RAP
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BEST WITH MASS FIELDS PICKING UP THE
CONVECTION PRETTY WELL AT THIS TIME. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST-
NORTHEAST THE STORMS WILL GET THIS MORNING...BUT HEAVY RAIN OVER
OUR EASTERN OZARK COUNTIES LOOKS LIKELY SO HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY. THE AREA OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.
SHOULD SEE THAT AREA GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS, BUT I DON`T THINK IT WILL TOTALLY FALL APART.
SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV THIS AFTERNOON
AS DIURNAL HEATING REINVIGORATES CONVECTION. COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THINK AT LEAST 40-50 POPS ARE
WARRANTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SECOND CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100
DEGREES AGAIN TODAY. THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES COME VERY NEAR
100 DEGREES (AND I CANNOT RULE OUT THERE WON`T BE SOME 100+ DEGREE
READINGS IN A FEW PLACES THIS AFTERNOON), FEEL THERE ARE TOO MANY
FACTORS AGAINST WIDESPREAD 100+ HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CARNEY
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR (AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER), WITH THIS CONVECTION
ROLLING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR NOW
I`VE MAINTAINED A CLIMATOLOGICAL FLAVOR TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
AND PRIMARILY KEPT THIS MENTION DURING THE MORNING. IT`S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT GET A BETTER LOOK AT TRENDS BEFORE
EXPANDING FFA FURTHER IN EITHER AREA OR TIME.
NO REAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, AS 12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL ALLOW SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SOUTHWARD WHILE IT ALSO USHERING COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE FA WITH TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY MIDWEEK, WITH GFS AND ECMWF MUCH FUTHER
NORTH THAT NAM ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW GONE WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE, AND GENERALLY KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FORECASTING REINTENSIFICATION OF
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
BUT GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT SOME THREAT OF CONVECTION EVEN AS
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE THREAT DID NOT GO
TOO EXTREME ON HIGH TEMPS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY MEAN A RETURN
OF HIGH DEWPOINTS/APPARENT TEMPS AFTER THE MID-WEEK RESPITE.
TRUETT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
OUTFLOW BNDY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM KC REGION TO JUST S OF KJEF
TO KFAM AREA. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSRA THIS EVE.
EXPECT A TSRA COMPLEX TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS OR WRN MO OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE EWD IMPACTING TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND INTO MID
MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF LULL MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS FOR SUS/CPS AND PERHAPS COU BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND BEING
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON TIMING OF MORNING CONVECTION AND EXACT PLACEMENT...WHICH
MAY INSTEAD BE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMS BEFORE PUSHING S
OF THE TERMINALS. UIN CURRENTLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING
FG OVERNIGHT AND GOING FCST MAY NOT HAVE VSBYS LOW ENUF.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT TSRA TO IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY WITH A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 91 72 85 66 / 60 50 10 10
QUINCY 86 64 80 61 / 60 40 5 5
COLUMBIA 88 68 84 64 / 70 40 5 10
JEFFERSON CITY 89 69 84 65 / 70 50 10 10
SALEM 89 72 85 62 / 50 50 10 10
FARMINGTON 90 72 85 64 / 50 60 30 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO-
WASHINGTON MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON
IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
BOTH HRRR AND RUC ANALYSIS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HI-LINE THIS EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE BORDER
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HI-LINE AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE AGAIN AFTER 18Z WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 257 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK AND TRANSIENT EXISTING
JUST LONG ENOUGH TO SWITCH THE FLOW ALOFT TO WESTERLY BEFORE THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH BACKS IT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE HI-LINE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AIRMASS STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
CLIMB 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MPJ
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AIRMASS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE ZONES. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE
AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODELS HAD FORECAST. THE TROF WILL BE
BROADENING AND MOVING SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY, AS IT MOVES OVER THE ZONES, FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NEARLY ZONAL. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE ZONES WILL ALREADY BE DROPPING BY SATURDAY.
THE TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED BY THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ZELZER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 57 87 57 90 / 10 30 20 10
CTB 53 84 52 85 / 20 30 10 10
HLN 60 89 60 92 / 10 20 20 20
BZN 53 87 53 89 / 10 20 20 10
WEY 42 74 43 76 / 10 10 10 30
DLN 51 83 52 85 / 10 20 20 20
HVR 56 87 56 93 / 30 20 30 10
LWT 55 84 56 89 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1207 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION TO
CONTEND WITH THIS MORNING. FIRST IS CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SD
PUSHING INTO THE NRN CWA ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE A LINE OF
STORMS WAS LIFTING ACROSS KS ON NOSE OF LLVL JET/THETA-E ADV.
LATEST HRRR/RAP13 ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE AS ACTIVITY MERGES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATES BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE 850MB WARM FRONT/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT MAINLY OVER
THE SRN CWA LATER THIS AFTN. RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ON TAP
THEN THROUGH AT LEAST WED AS AS COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION. GOING FCST HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN
CWA WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF KS/MO.
WITH LATEST MODELS STILL SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT...SEE
LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
OVERALL THE GFS/ECM/CMC MAY BE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE FLOW EVOLVING TO A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PATTERN ENCOMPASSING
THE CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
SEEN IN REGARDS TO SFC FEATURES/FROPA. THIS BEST DEPICTED ON SAT/06Z
WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT PER THE GFS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ECM ON THE OTHER HAND AT THAT TIME
DEVELOPS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF KS. GIVEN
THAT THE EVOLVING PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN
ACTIVITY...HAVE TAKEN THE LIBERTY OF REMOVING POPS FROM MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PDS EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING TOKEN 20S IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW-SCT CU ARE
EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUE MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION TO
CONTEND WITH THIS MORNING. FIRST IS CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SD
PUSHING INTO THE NRN CWA ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE A LINE OF
STORMS WAS LIFTING ACROSS KS ON NOSE OF LLVL JET/THETA-E ADV.
LATEST HRRR/RAP13 ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE AS ACTIVITY MERGES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATES BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE 850MB WARM FRONT/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT MAINLY OVER
THE SRN CWA LATER THIS AFTN. RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ON TAP
THEN THROUGH AT LEAST WED AS AS COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION. GOING FCST HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN
CWA WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF KS/MO.
WITH LATEST MODELS STILL SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT...SEE
LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
OVERALL THE GFS/ECM/CMC MAY BE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE FLOW EVOLVING TO A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PATTERN ENCOMPASSING
THE CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
SEEN IN REGARDS TO SFC FEATURES/FROPA. THIS BEST DEPICTED ON SAT/06Z
WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT PER THE GFS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ECM ON THE OTHER HAND AT THAT TIME
DEVELOPS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF KS. GIVEN
THAT THE EVOLVING PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN
ACTIVITY...HAVE TAKEN THE LIBERTY OF REMOVING POPS FROM MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PDS EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING TOKEN 20S IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD SKIRT NEAR KOMA/KOFK...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF TSRA AT KOMA THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-14KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR KOMA/KLNK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN TO
AROUND 5KT OR LESS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION TO
CONTEND WITH THIS MORNING. FIRST IS CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SD
PUSHING INTO THE NRN CWA ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH DEEPER INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE A LINE OF
STORMS WAS LIFTING ACROSS KS ON NOSE OF LLVL JET/THETA-E ADV.
LATEST HRRR/RAP13 ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AREAL COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE AS ACTIVITY MERGES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATES BY LATE MORNING WHEN THE BNDRY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE 850MB WARM FRONT/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT MAINLY OVER
THE SRN CWA LATER THIS AFTN. RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ON TAP
THEN THROUGH AT LEAST WED AS AS COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION. GOING FCST HAS SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN
CWA WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF KS/MO.
WITH LATEST MODELS STILL SUPPORTING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT...SEE
LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
OVERALL THE GFS/ECM/CMC MAY BE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE FLOW EVOLVING TO A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PATTERN ENCOMPASSING
THE CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
SEEN IN REGARDS TO SFC FEATURES/FROPA. THIS BEST DEPICTED ON SAT/06Z
WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT PER THE GFS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ECM ON THE OTHER HAND AT THAT TIME
DEVELOPS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF KS. GIVEN
THAT THE EVOLVING PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN
ACTIVITY...HAVE TAKEN THE LIBERTY OF REMOVING POPS FROM MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PDS EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING TOKEN 20S IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS STORMS TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MORE STORMS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS WILL
APPROACH KLNK BY 09Z AND KOMA BY 11Z...AND AGAIN COULD PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS OR STORMS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF ALL TAF SITES BEFORE 18Z...LEAVING NORTH WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25K FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUALLY SCATTERING
CLOUDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST BY 00Z AND
BEYOND AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1042 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE STRETCHING FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN WILL AIDE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. STORMS IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT CAN PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR A TRIP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. BY MID
WEEK...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING AN
END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...THICK CLOUD COVER IS HOLDING DOWN TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15. AS A
RESULT, I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN THIS AREA ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 8
DEGREES ON AVERAGE. FURTHER SOUTH THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS ERODED AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS WORKED IN AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK MUCH MORE
ACHIEVABLE HERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT OUT.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...ISSUED AT 749 AM PDT MON JUL 20 105
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLING OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PV MAX THAT HELPED TO TRIGGER THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WAS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE NEVADA BORDER. DRIER AIR WAS ALREADY
EVIDENT WORKING ON NORTH.
OVERALL POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP ACROSS MUCH OF LINCOLN, SOUTHERN NYE
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST RADAR RETURNS. POPS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR AND
WRF AS THIS AREA SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE GIVEN THE FEATURES PRESENT
TO PROVIDE FORCING (APPROACHING JET STREAK, LOW OFFSHORE, WAVE
RIDING NORTH). SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE FOR TUESDAY TO BETTER
MATCH THE NEIGHBORING WFO`S AND GIVEN WE HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OUT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 11K
FEET THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLY A TSRA THIS
MORNING THOUGH IT APPEARS ANY HEAVIER TSRA ACTIVITY WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THAT WOULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AIRPORT COMPLEX. AWAY FROM ANY SHRA/TSRA OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST PREVALENT IN
THE BEATTY AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE
OTHER APPROACH CORRIDORS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASES WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 7K
AND 12K FEET LOWERING TO BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 244 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS DAY CONVECTION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. IN
ADDITION, THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A 50KT JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN EXTRA SOURCE OF LIFT. MODELS FORECAST DRIER, MORE STABLE
AIR OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE INTO SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY SHUT
DOWN EARLY THERE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
MID DAY THEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS GET TRIMMED OUT AS THE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE DESERTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW OFF THE COAST OPENS UP TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTING MAINLY TO INYO COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. WEAK INSTABILITY EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF
CLARK COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS
WELL.
BY WEDNESDAY, TROUGHING MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND THE
NORTHWEST CWA LIES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70+ KNOT JET
PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LINGERING MOISTURE IN THAT
AREA FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE ELSEWHERE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A
WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE PAC NW
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP A
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR BISHOP NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
THURSDAY. ADDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TO NORTHERN ESMERALDA COUNTY AS
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO A BREEZY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER YET WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR SUNDAY...INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN
MOHAVE AS MONSOON MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK WEST INTO THE COUNTY.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY AND/OR TUESDAY. REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING, THUNDERSTORM WINDS,
DUST, HAIL AND RELATED DAMAGE AS WELL AS RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
ENCOURAGED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...SALMEN/PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
749 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE STRETCHING FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN WILL AIDE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. STORMS IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT CAN PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR A TRIP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. BY MID
WEEK...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING AN
END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SWIRLING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED PV MAX THAT HELPED TO TRIGGER THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WAS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE NEVADA BORDER. DRIER AIR WAS ALREADY
EVIDENT WORKING ON NORTH.
OVERALL POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP ACROSS MUCH OF LINCOLN, SOUTHERN NYE
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST RADAR RETURNS. POPS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR AND
WRF AS THIS AREA SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE GIVEN THE FEATURES PRESENT
TO PROVIDE FORCING (APPROACHING JET STREAK, LOW OFFSHORE, WAVE
RIDING NORTH). SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE FOR TUESDAY TO BETTER
MATCH THE NEIGHBORING WFO`S AND GIVEN WE HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OUT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 11K
FEET THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLY A TSRA THIS
MORNING THOUGH IT APPEARS ANY HEAVIER TSRA ACTIVITY WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THAT WOULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AIRPORT COMPLEX. AWAY FROM ANY SHRA/TSRA OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WINDS WILL MAINLY FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST PREVALENT IN
THE BEATTY AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE
OTHER APPROACH CORRIDORS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASES WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 7K
AND 12K FEET LOWERING TO BETWEEN 4K AND 6K FEET NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 244 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS DAY CONVECTION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. IN
ADDITION, THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A 50KT JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BECOMING AN EXTRA SOURCE OF LIFT. MODELS FORECAST DRIER, MORE STABLE
AIR OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE INTO SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY SHUT
DOWN EARLY THERE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
MID DAY THEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS GET TRIMMED OUT AS THE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE DESERTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW OFF THE COAST OPENS UP TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTING MAINLY TO INYO COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. WEAK INSTABILITY EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF
CLARK COUNTY ON TUESDAY AND THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS
WELL.
BY WEDNESDAY, TROUGHING MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND THE
NORTHWEST CWA LIES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70+ KNOT JET
PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LINGERING MOISTURE IN THAT
AREA FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE ELSEWHERE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A
WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE PAC NW
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP A
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR BISHOP NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
THURSDAY. ADDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TO NORTHERN ESMERALDA COUNTY AS
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO A BREEZY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER YET WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR SUNDAY...INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN
MOHAVE AS MONSOON MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK WEST INTO THE COUNTY.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY AND/OR TUESDAY. REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING, THUNDERSTORM WINDS,
DUST, HAIL AND RELATED DAMAGE AS WELL AS RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
ENCOURAGED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...SALMEN/PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMBINED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
THE HEAT. THE FRONT/TROF COMBO WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY A DRYING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...THE FA IS UNDER THE SOUTHERN END OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
NATURE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. THE SFC TROF/COOL FRONT COMBO
ORIENTED ENE-WSW...SHOULD PUSH TO OR JUST OFF THE ILM CWA COASTS
AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW TO
N AFTER THIS BOUNDARYS PASSAGE. IN FACT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS AREAS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS HAVING RECEIVED
RAINFALL. TEMPS/DEWPTS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
OVERALL...HRRR MODEL HAD THE GENERAL TRENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE WORSE CONVECTION N THRU NE OF
THE ILM CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST AT SUNRISE IN THE MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
THIS FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS FRONT IS
TO SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO
GEORGETOWN WILL HAVE WAIT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE 90S AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. ON
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 90 IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TO THE 92 TO 95
RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TO A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE WITH THE LOW RIDING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S WITH TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EAST...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING A WEAKER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THAT A COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THIS FLOW NEXT TUESDAY THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE HERE. FOR
FRIDAY TROUGH MONDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL BELOW 1.5 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR AS A HIGHER
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH DIURNAL
COOLING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA BY TAF TIME...SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALL BUT ENDING BY 02-03Z.
AFTER SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SUBSIDES...EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED ANY RAIN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS IN.
SOME BRIEF STRATUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON LATEST WIND AND SEAS
REPORTS/TRENDS AND HRRR PROGRESSION OF WX FEATURES...HAVE TWEAKED
BOTH WIND AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT MAINLY A SLOW VEERING WIND DIRECTION
CHANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS. WILL LIKELY
SEE W-NW WIND DIRECTIONS BY DAYBREAK WED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO DROP DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SFC TROF AXIS
TO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MORE-SO OCCURRING
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ALSO A BIT SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE
THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH A CONTINUED UNDERLYING LAZY 1 FOOT OR
LESS SE GROUND SWELL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER SANTEE. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THIS
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SWITCHING TO THE THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST BY MORNING TO MID-MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE BACK FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR SO TO THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
THE HIGH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
ENSUING. A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS...REMAINING WEAKLY FORCED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND BRINGING A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HEAT ALONG WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY A
DRYING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADV ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM.
A DEGREE OR 2 COOLING IN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE FA STILL A
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOWER
QUICKLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION BY MID-EVENING. THE
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ENTERING THE NW PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA...IS PROGGED BY THE HRRR TO TRAVERSE THE ILM CWA FROM NW-SE
AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEIR STRENGTH REMAINS
SUSPECT BUT FOR NOW WILL INDICATE AN ISOLATED 30-45 MPH WIND GUST
POSSIBLE. HAIL CHANCES VERY LOW WITH CURRENT AND PROGGED VILS WELL
BELOW 1 INCH THRESHOLDS. OVERALL...POPS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO
MODEST CHANCE...20-40 PERCENT THIS EVENING...DROPPING QUICKLY BY
THE EARLY AM HOURS OF WED.
HAVE UPDATED OVERNIGHT MINS...HRLY DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LIMITED INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PCPN
MOVING ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO USE THE LATEST
PROGRESSION OF THE VARIOUS WX FEATURES THROUGH THE HRRR MODEL.
PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPPER SUPPORT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. A DOME OF WARM
H5-H3 AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO UNDERGO SHEAR FROM SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE PLUME OF DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ALOFT
APPROACHES...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM IN VICINITY OF A
PIEDMONT TROUGH WEST OF I-95. SEVERAL DISCREET CELLS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE ASCENT ZONE.
MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES COULD RESULT ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SHORT-WAVE ALOFT PROGRESSES
TOWARD THE COAST...IT WILL FORCE THE HAND OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
INLAND TO GAIN A SE MIGRATION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MINIMUMS MIDDLE 70S INLAND TO LOW
80S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST AT SUNRISE IN THE MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
THIS FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS FRONT IS
TO SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO
GEORGETOWN WILL HAVE WAIT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE 90S AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. ON
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 90 IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TO THE 92 TO 95
RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TO A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE WITH THE LOW RIDING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S WITH TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EAST...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING A WEAKER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THAT A COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THIS FLOW NEXT TUESDAY THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE HERE. FOR
FRIDAY TROUGH MONDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL BELOW 1.5 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR AS A HIGHER
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH DIURNAL
COOLING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA BY TAF TIME...SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALL BUT ENDING BY 02-03Z.
AFTER SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SUBSIDES...EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED ANY RAIN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS IN.
SOME BRIEF STRATUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON LATEST WIND AND SEAS
REPORTS/TRENDS AND HRRR PROGRESSION OF WX FEATURES...OF UPDATED
BOTH WIND AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKING
AT MAINLY A SLOW VEERING WIND DIRECTION CHANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS. COULD SEE W-NW BY DAYBREAK WED.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC TROF AXIS TO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS...MORE-SO OCCURRING RIGHT AFTER DAYBREAK WED. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS ALSO A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5
SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT WITH A CONTINUED
UNDERLYING VERY LAZY 1 FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL.
PREVIOUS.....................................................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP
FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-4 FOOT SEAS. SEAS MAINLY COMPRISED
OF SSW WAVES AROUND 3-4 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS AND ESE WAVES 1-2 FT
EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS COULD TRACK EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AT 25 TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS
AND GENERATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER WIND-WAVES. AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IF 5 FT SEAS
EXPAND INTO THE 20NM CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER SANTEE. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE
THIS FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SWITCHING TO THE
THE NORTHWEST TO WEST BY MORNING TO MID-MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE BACK FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR SO TO THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
THE HIGH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
ENSUING. A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS...REMAINING WEAKLY FORCED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
258 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AND LESSEN THE HEAT WHILE INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIP OFF TO THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PREVIOUS UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FCST STILL
LOOKS AOK THRU THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROF HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
IN LINE WITH THE EARLIER HRRR PROGGED REFLECTIVITY DISPLAY.
THIS UPDATE IS CONCERNED WITH TWEAKS WITH TONIGHTS LOWS. VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT LOWS HAVE INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED THE LOWS TO THE 76-81
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE LOW 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
LOCAL SSTS ARE IN THE 80S. THIN/OPAQUE CLOUDS WILL BECOME MAINLY
THIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVE WINDS IN THE 5 MPH
INLAND...5 TO 10 MPH ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY.
PREVIOUS..........................................................
AS OF 1145 AM MONDAY...TWEAKED AFTN/EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE
FA...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH RESPECT TO THE SEA BREEZE AND
ITS FORWARD AND LIMITED INLAND PROGRESSION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRENGTH OF TODAYS SEA BREEZE. IN
ADDITION...FURTHER LIMITED AFTN AND EVENING CLOUD COVERAGE BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE VIS TRENDS AND LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM
AND ACROSS THE FA WHICH IN TURN WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING
THE PERIOD WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT.
FRONT STALLS ON WED AS THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP LAYING PARALLEL TO THE
STEERING FLOW. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. COVERAGE ON TUE IS LIKELY TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETREATING 5H RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX.
INHERITED LOW CHC POP MESHES WELL WITH VARIOUS GUIDANCE FOR TUE SO
PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES...WITH
SOME INLAND AREAS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE COAST AND COLUMBUS COUNTY WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING INLAND COUNTIES.
FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED MORNING THEN LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL WILL BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST FROM NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH AT
LEAST 200 MB. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THE
FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF ANY STRONG TRIGGERING MECHANISMS
WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE CLIMO...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
COUNTIES WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING BOUNDARY AS
NW FLOW FLATTENS OUT ON BOTTOM OF MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CAROLINAS. PCP WATER FIELDS SHOW BOUNDARY NICELY WITH VALUES DOWN
BELOW 1.5 IN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THURS MORNING AND
HIGHER VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH OVER SC. BUT BOUNDARY
MAY BUCKLE UP AS WIND FIELDS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER
INLAND CAPE FEAR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FETCH TO
CARRY MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURS. THIS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION AS SEA BREEZE
ENHANCES CONVERGENCE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MODELS SUGGESTING LIKELY POPS
ON THURS. FOR NOW...HAVE PUSHED THE POPS UP TO HIGH CHC BUT WILL
WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO JUMP UP ANY FURTHER. WILL KEEP WITH
TREND OF GREATEST CHC OF CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SC ON
THURS INTO FRI AS BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE AND LOW MOVES OUT OFF TO THE EAST ON
FRI...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM
THE NORTH IN DEEP N-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN AT THE SFC.
BY FRI AFTN ANY MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
LOCAL AREA LEAVING PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
POSSIBLE NW FLOW CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OR A LITTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LATE SUN INTO MON COULD BRING IN SOME CLOUD OR POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A LOCALIZED SHWR BY SUN. FOR NOW...ONLY KEEPING LOW END
SLIGHT CHC OF LOCALIZED BUILDUP ALONG SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY JUST INLAND OF COAST. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP ONCE AGAIN WITH POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE OR WEAK FRONT ENHANCING SOME CONVECTION UP STREAM AND
POSSIBLY ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND.
OVERALL...AFTER EARLY FRI...HEADING INTO DRIER AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THRUOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CU AND HIGH CLOUDS
AS WELL. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING...THOUGH GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE
ONLY INTRODUCED VCTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. COULD SEE DEBRIS
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THEIR
OCCURRENCE TO BETWEEN 15K-25K FEET. ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMS...AN
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN SSE-SSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT THRU MID- LATE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO STAY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...EVEN
ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS...AND THUS HAVE KEPT FOG OFF THE BOOKS.
AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH THIN CI/CS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
DIURNAL CONVECTION. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...UPDATED WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS FROM
EARLIER STILL LOOKING AOK THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS...........................................................
AS OF 1145 AM MONDAY...TWEAKED WINDS...MAINLY WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY
HIER BY UP TO SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. IN ESSENCE...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15
TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER THE COMBINED 15-20 KT WINDS AND 3-5 FT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG. THIS WILL BE DETERMINED AT THE NEXT UPDATE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
HITTING A SOLID 20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT MAY FLIRT
WITH 5 FT NEAR THE 20 NM LIMIT BUT THE BULK OF THE ZONES WILL BE 3
TO 4 FT WITH SOME 2 FT NEAR SHORE. WEAK FRONT SETTLES OVER THE AREA
LATE TUE...PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. FRONT
WILL BE OBSCURED WED BY DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE WATERS. GRADIENT WEAKENS FOR WED
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TUE NIGHT
AND REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE MORE
VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS...BUT REMAINING VERY LIGHT OVERALL. SOME
MODELS HINT AT A BROAD WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING ON THURS BUT EITHER
WAY A MORE ON SHORE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS THURS BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRI UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
WINDS AND SEAS EACH AFTN AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ053>056.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ087-096.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL MAINLY SLOW DOWN THE MIXING TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN MARGINAL HEAT INDICES TO
SUPPORT THE ONGOING ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE EAST NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS - AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IN SUCH A PATTERN...A VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL VARIABLES CAN INFLUENCE
THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF
CONVECTION...INCLUDING UPSTREAM CONVECTION OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF
(MCV`S/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES)...SMALL AMPLITUDE BAROCLINIC WAVES AT THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...DEPTH/DEGREE OF MIXING...ETC. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE
IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES/COVERAGE/TIMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
BELOW AVERAGE.
H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C AND STRONG INSOLATION/MIXING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SFC DEWPOINTS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FCST BY THE GFS/NAM ARE
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGESTS 16-18C
H85 DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S (NW) TO ~70F (E/SE). AS A RESULT...THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AND HEAT INDICES AT/AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE GFS INDICATES H85 DEWPOINTS ~14C...
DEEPER MIXING...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT...AND LOWER
HEAT INDICES OF 100-103F SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. SPC
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH H85 DEWPOINTS OF 12-15C (16-17C
ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS). THOUGH WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE CLOSER TO
THOSE DEPICTED BY THE GFS THAN THE NAM.
TWO SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES (BAROCLINIC/MCV/OR A COMBINATION THEREOF)
WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ONE IN WV AND THE
OTHER ALONG THE WESTERN TN/KY BORDER. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WAVE IN WV WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/
NORTHERN VA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
KY/TN WAVE TAKES A MORE UNCERTAIN COURSE (INTO A WEAKER FLOW REGIME)
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND UPSTATE SC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WAVE TRACKING INTO WESTERN NC/SC APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT/EVE GIVEN EXCELLENT
DIURNAL TIMING AND A TRACK WHICH TAKES IS THROUGH A MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION FROM MESOSCALE FORCING...WILL INDICATE A 20-
30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION...HIGHEST IN THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND FAR
NE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT WITH A BETTER
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN
/EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH/ IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AFTER 21Z AND
THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT (21-
04Z). EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
FAR NW PIEDMONT. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...
PERHAPS ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR (I.E. INCLUDING THE
TRIANGLE)...DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE
FRONT STALLING NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS MORE AGGRESSIVELY IN FROM THE NORTH (AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE) WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST PUSHES OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INVOF THE
FRONT... WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND (SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY... DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY).
HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL... WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND... GENERALLY UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS
AFT/EVE...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH POSSIBLY AT
ANY TERMINAL. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ~10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM: TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
LATE DAY CONVECTION...GENERALLY 18-02Z...ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IF WE HAVE STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-
043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1115 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL MAINLY SLOW DOWN THE MIXING TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN MARGINAL HEAT INDICES TO
SUPPORT THE ONGOING ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE EAST NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS - AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IN SUCH A PATTERN...A VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL VARIABLES CAN INFLUENCE
THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF
CONVECTION...INCLUDING UPSTREAM CONVECTION OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF
(MCV`S/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES)...SMALL AMPLITUDE BAROCLINIC WAVES AT THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...DEPTH/DEGREE OF MIXING...ETC. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE
IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES/COVERAGE/TIMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
BELOW AVERAGE.
H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C AND STRONG INSOLATION/MIXING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SFC DEWPOINTS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FCST BY THE GFS/NAM ARE
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGESTS 16-18C
H85 DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S (NW) TO ~70F (E/SE). AS A RESULT...THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AND HEAT INDICES AT/AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE GFS INDICATES H85 DEWPOINTS ~14C...
DEEPER MIXING...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT...AND LOWER
HEAT INDICES OF 100-103F SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. SPC
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH H85 DEWPOINTS OF 12-15C (16-17C
ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS). THOUGH WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE CLOSER TO
THOSE DEPICTED BY THE GFS THAN THE NAM.
TWO SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES (BAROCLINIC/MCV/OR A COMBINATION THEREOF)
WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ONE IN WV AND THE
OTHER ALONG THE WESTERN TN/KY BORDER. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WAVE IN WV WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/
NORTHERN VA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
KY/TN WAVE TAKES A MORE UNCERTAIN COURSE (INTO A WEAKER FLOW REGIME)
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND UPSTATE SC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WAVE TRACKING INTO WESTERN NC/SC APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT/EVE GIVEN EXCELLENT
DIURNAL TIMING AND A TRACK WHICH TAKES IS THROUGH A MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION FROM MESOSCALE FORCING...WILL INDICATE A 20-
30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION...HIGHEST IN THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND FAR
NE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT WITH A BETTER
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN
/EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH/ IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AFTER 21Z AND
THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT (21-
04Z). EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
FAR NW PIEDMONT. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...
PERHAPS ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR (I.E. INCLUDING THE
TRIANGLE)...DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE
FRONT STALLING NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS MORE AGGRESSIVELY IN FROM THE NORTH (AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE) WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST PUSHES OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INVOF THE
FRONT... WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND (SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY... DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY).
HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL... WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND... GENERALLY UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM MONDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFT/EVE...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO
TERMINALS...THOUGH POSSIBLY AT ANY TERMINAL (SEE NEAR TERM
DISCUSSION). EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT ~10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENING TO 5 KT OR LESS BY
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM: WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...EXPECT AN ACTIVE SUMMER-
TIME PATTERN TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY
AVIATION HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION...THOUGH
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-
043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
803 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE EAST NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS - AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN SUCH A PATTERN...A VARIETY
OF ADDITIONAL VARIABLES CAN INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION (OR
LACK THEREOF) OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING UPSTREAM CONVECTION OR THE
REMNANTS THEREOF (MCV`S/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES)...SMALL AMPLITUDE
BAROCLINIC WAVES AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...DEPTH/DEGREE OF MIXING...ETC. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES/COVERAGE/TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS BELOW AVERAGE.
H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C AND STRONG INSOLATION/MIXING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SFC DEWPOINTS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FCST BY THE GFS/NAM ARE
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGESTS 16-18C
H85 DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S (NW) TO ~70F (E/SE). AS A RESULT...THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AND HEAT INDICES AT/AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE GFS INDICATES H85 DEWPOINTS ~14C...
DEEPER MIXING...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT...AND LOWER
HEAT INDICES OF 100-103F SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. SPC
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH H85 DEWPOINTS OF 12-15C (16-17C
ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS). THOUGH WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE CLOSER TO
THOSE DEPICTED BY THE GFS THAN THE NAM.
TWO SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES (BAROCLINIC/MCV/OR A COMBINATION THEREOF)
WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ONE IN WV AND THE
OTHER ALONG THE WESTERN TN/KY BORDER. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WAVE IN WV WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/
NORTHERN VA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
KY/TN WAVE TAKES A MORE UNCERTAIN COURSE (INTO A WEAKER FLOW REGIME)
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND UPSTATE SC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WAVE TRACKING INTO WESTERN NC/SC APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT/EVE GIVEN EXCELLENT
DIURNAL TIMING AND A TRACK WHICH TAKES IS THROUGH A MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION FROM MESOSCALE FORCING...WILL INDICATE A 20-
30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION...HIGHEST IN THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND FAR
NE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT WITH A BETTER
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN
/EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH/ IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AFTER 21Z AND
THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT (21-
04Z). EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
FAR NW PIEDMONT. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...
PERHAPS ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR (I.E. INCLUDING THE
TRIANGLE)...DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE
FRONT STALLING NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS MORE AGGRESSIVELY IN FROM THE NORTH (AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE) WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST PUSHES OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INVOF THE
FRONT... WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND (SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY... DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY).
HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL... WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND... GENERALLY UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM MONDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFT/EVE...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO
TERMINALS...THOUGH POSSIBLY AT ANY TERMINAL (SEE NEAR TERM
DISCUSSION). EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT ~10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENING TO 5 KT OR LESS BY
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM: WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...EXPECT AN ACTIVE SUMMER-
TIME PATTERN TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY
AVIATION HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION...THOUGH
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-
043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
511 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE EAST NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS - AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE WESTERLIES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. IN SUCH A PATTERN...A VARIETY
OF ADDITIONAL VARIABLES CAN INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION (OR
LACK THEREOF) OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING UPSTREAM CONVECTION OR THE
REMNANTS THEREOF (MCV`S/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES)...SMALL AMPLITUDE
BAROCLINIC WAVES AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...DEPTH/DEGREE OF MIXING...ETC. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES/COVERAGE/TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS BELOW AVERAGE.
H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C AND STRONG INSOLATION/MIXING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SFC DEWPOINTS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FCST BY THE GFS/NAM ARE
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGESTS 16-18C
H85 DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S (NW) TO ~70F (E/SE). AS A RESULT...THE NAM SUGGESTS MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AND HEAT INDICES AT/AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE GFS INDICATES H85 DEWPOINTS ~14C...
DEEPER MIXING...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT...AND LOWER
HEAT INDICES OF 100-103F SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. SPC
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH H85 DEWPOINTS OF 12-15C (16-17C
ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS). THOUGH WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE CLOSER TO
THOSE DEPICTED BY THE GFS THAN THE NAM.
TWO SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES (BAROCLINIC/MCV/OR A COMBINATION THEREOF)
WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ONE IN WV AND THE
OTHER ALONG THE WESTERN TN/KY BORDER. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WAVE IN WV WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/
NORTHERN VA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
KY/TN WAVE TAKES A MORE UNCERTAIN COURSE (INTO A WEAKER FLOW REGIME)
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND UPSTATE SC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WAVE TRACKING INTO WESTERN NC/SC APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT/EVE GIVEN EXCELLENT
DIURNAL TIMING AND A TRACK WHICH TAKES IS THROUGH A MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)...UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION FROM MESOSCALE FORCING...WILL INDICATE A 20-
30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION...HIGHEST IN THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND FAR
NE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT WITH A BETTER
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN
/EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH/ IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AFTER 21Z AND
THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT (21-
04Z). EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
FAR NW PIEDMONT. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...
PERHAPS ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR (I.E. INCLUDING THE
TRIANGLE)...DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE
FRONT STALLING NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS MORE AGGRESSIVELY IN FROM THE NORTH (AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE) WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST PUSHES OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INVOF THE
FRONT... WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND (SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY... DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY).
HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL... WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND... GENERALLY UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFT/EVE...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO
TERMINALS...THOUGH POSSIBLY AT ANY TERMINAL (SEE NEAR TERM
DISCUSSION). EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT ~10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM: WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...EXPECT AN ACTIVE SUMMER-
TIME PATTERN TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY
AVIATION HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION...THOUGH
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-
043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA AND STALL FOR A FEW DAYS BRINGING
A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A BREAK FROM
THE HEAT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...CONVECTION DIED 1-2 HOURS AGO AND THE REMNANT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS JUST ABOUT DONE RAINING ITSELF OUT
NOW. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AND
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE IN THE 2-4 AM TIMEFRAME.
WINDS ARE OVERALL LIGHTER THAN MODELS INDICATED LIKELY DUE TO
INTERFERENCE FROM THE SOUTHWARD MOVING CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. IS THE SURFACE INVERSION WELL ENOUGH ESTABLISHED TO RESIST
THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET THAT WOULD TRY TO ADD SOME MOMENTUM BACK
INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER? I`M BETTING THE INVERSION WILL WIN WITH
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK. I HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMP
FORECASTS BY 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST INLAND SITES WITH LITTLE CHANGE
NECESSARY ALONG THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE IS NO
LONGER ANY CLOUD TO GROUND OR EVEN IN CLOUD LIGHTNING NOTED IN THE
AREA. AND ALTHOUGH THIS TOOK TWO HOURS LONGER TO BE TRUE WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THERE IS NO UPSTREAM CONVECTION ASSOC WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. THUS FEEL THAT LOCAL HI RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR ARE
CORRECT IN KEEPING US RAIN-FREE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL WRF HAS COME IN GIVING SUPPORT TO THIS IDEA AS WELL IN
CONTRAST WITH ITS EARLIER RUN THAT HELD ON TO SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WILL FEATURE RAIN OVER NWRN COUNTIES TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A THINNING VEIL OF DEBRIS CIRRUS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN WILL ONLY BE OF THE VARIETY OF CONCERN TO
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL
APPROXIMATE THE MUGGY NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL SPEND ONE LAST DAY ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A 5H RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX ON MON. TUE A 5H LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXPAND SOUTH...SUPPRESSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS
5H RIDGE. ALTHOUGH DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS AROUND 2 INCHES EACH AFTERNOON...AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH/SEA BREEZE SHOULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING EACH
DAY...BUT TIMING IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY BOTH MON AND TUE MEANING
LIMITED DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SUBSIDENCE AS THE WAVE IS EXITING
WILL WORK TO OFFSET CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. STILL THINK SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC AT
BEST. ORGANIZED SEVERE IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
STRONG FEATURES BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TUE NIGHT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND AT LEAST SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BUT THINK
CHC POP IS WARRANTED TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE PINNED SEA
BREEZE. COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE HEAT WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE MON WITH POTENTIALLY
HIGHER VALUES IN PLACES ON TUE. BASED ON THE EXPECTED HEAT INDEX
VALUES MON HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES...EVEN THE
COASTAL ZONES GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
SEA BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN EAST TO WEST FLATTER MID TO UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED UP THE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK ALLOWING TROUGH TO DIG DOWN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WED INTO
THURS WILL BEGIN TO VEER ON FRI BECOMING MORE N-NW BY FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WED LEAVING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH
LINGERING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA THURS INTO FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING MORE OF A DRIER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND BETTER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS TO KEEP MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. THEREFORE WILL SHOW
GREATEST POPS COASTAL ON WED AS SEA BREEZE COMES AGAINST NW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TO PRODUCE GREATEST CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SC ON THURS INTO FRI AS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEARBY. THEN DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
OFF SHORE ALLOWING A DEEP N-NW FLOW TO SET UP. IF RIDGE DOES NOT
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FAR ENOUGH AND WINDS STAY
MORE NW INSTEAD OF NORTHERLY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHC
OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION/MCS OR SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...WED WILL BEGIN THE END OF DANGEROUS HEAT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AROUND WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO 18C BY WED AFTN AND
REMAINING AROUND THAT VALUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT OF
DRIER VS MOISTER AIR WILL RUN MORE N-NW TO S-SE WITH PCP WATER
VALUES DROPPING DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NC
AND REMAINING UP TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL TO COASTAL SC ON WED SOUTH
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH. THE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY NOT SEE AS GREAT A
CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SFC BOUNDARY ACTUALLY MAKES
IT. GFS SHOWS LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS BY WED INTO THURS MOVING INTO AREA
FROM THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS A GREATER CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES OR POSSIBLY
BELOW WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION AFFECTING TEMPS AND POSSIBLE DRIER
AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAS DISSIPATED. WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE
BE VARIABLE...EXCEPT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL BE SW
AROUND 4 KT.
BR WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF TEMPO IFR AT KFLO/KLBT DUE
TO MOIST SOILS FROM YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY. TEMPO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED
AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. AFTER
SUNRISE
VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS. THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SSW...BUT
WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT COULD DELAY PASSAGE TO MID AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
DIURNAL CONVECTION. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...WINDS NEAR THE BEACHES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WHILE OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WINDS ARE
BARELY REACHING 15 KNOTS. THIS IS LIGHTER THAN MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC
AND HRRR OUTPUT. I HAVE REDUCED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS
AS WELL. LATEST BUOYS CLUSTERED NEAR CAPE FEAR SHOW NOTHING HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 3 FEET. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
OUTFLOW FROM DYING CONVECTION INLAND MAY BRIEFLY DISRUPT THE
OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NEXT FEW HOURS THIS MAY
EVEN MEAN A QUICK TURN TO THE W OR NW BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE
MAY JUST BE A RELAXATION IN THE GRADIENT. ONCE THIS BOUNDARY WASHES
OUT (MIDNIGHT-1AM) IT WILL BE BACK TO THE INLAND TROUGH-BORNE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH THE
DOMINANT FEATURES. LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL NOT REACH THE WATERS BEFORE THE END
OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MON WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE...PEAKING AT A SOLID 15 KT IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TUE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ON MON WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT TUE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED 5 FT NEAR 20 NM IN THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A MARGINAL SCEC TUE EVENING/NIGHT
HEADLINES SEEM LIKE A LONG SHOT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH REACHING INTO
AREA WATERS ON WED. THE LATEST MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY BISECTING
WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE SW-W SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY AND LIGHTER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT...MAINLY NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR. AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH WED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WITH A
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. THE WEAKENING FLOW
WILL ALLOW LAND/SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE WINDS WITH GREATER ON
SHORE FLOW EACH AFTN AND A LIGHT OFF SHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
WATERS WHILE IT WEAKENS FURTHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WED AND SLIGHT
UPWARD TREND THURS INTO FRI IN AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
TRIMMED POPS AGAIN CENTRAL FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR CONTINUES TO TO HOLD IONTO SOME CONVECTION
WEST TONIGHT. BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. INSTEAD WILL FOCUS ON
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
LATEST HRRR RUN HINTS AT EXPANDING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL
TRIM POPS BACK ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WILL
LEAVE THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY...THIS TIME MORE HUMID.
CURRENTLY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST WITH A
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT...OVER MY FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LACK OF INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND EAST SO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION
FOR THE DURATION OF TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
A DECENT SOUTHERLY MIXING FLOW COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WAA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE 80S. COOLER WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS.
HIGH RES MODELS STILL INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INITIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
IN PROXIMITY TO A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS THEN
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME IN THE
EVENING. COVERAGE STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH LATEST NSHARP
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. DUE TO THIS AND LITTLE FORCING ALOFT
OPTED TO KEEP OUR POPS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING DRY TONIGHT.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT BUT REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE SFC TROUGH OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING...AND WILL KEEP NORTH DAKOTA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 90S WEST. MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY
AS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION THANKS
TO A MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRETCHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...AND
POTENTIAL OF A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DRAWING 60-65F DEWPOINTS INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS IN PLACE UPSTREAM OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REACHES WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE IN THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES (HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RANGING FROM 3000-5000 J/KG) THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS WOULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. HAVE PUT THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FAR WEST...OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THESE TWO DAYS FOR A NICE
REPRIEVE...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORMING OFF THE WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT AS HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...BUT INCREASING HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
AT 9 PM CDT A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA. THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. HOWEVER TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN VICINITY MENTION FOR KJMS. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MADE A FEW FURTHER TWEAKS TO POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STARTED TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL ND
FROM SD. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
ACTIVITY AND IT HAS THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH DISSIPATING AND MORE
ACTIVITY FIRING JUST WEST OF THE RED RIVER LATER ON DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN HAVE ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NOT A LOT OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO WENT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
TWEAKED POPS A BIT TONIGHT...A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS HAVE STARTED
TO MORE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RETURNS
ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. THINK WE WILL GET SOME
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND EVENTUALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER
TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED POPS GOING OVERNIGHT STARTING
IN THE WEST AND TRANSITIONING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS PROGRESSIVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
THU. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO OVER AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AS
CROSS SECTION INDICATES MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. BIS SOUNDING
INDICATED MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WAS MOVING IN BETWEEN 750 AND 550
HPA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FOLLOW ON THU.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AROUND 84 HOURS AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF AK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE THU. NAM AND GFS
SHOWALTERS BECOME QUITE NEGATIVE FOR THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS
MUCH LESS NEGATIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN
PLACE THU AFTERNOON WILL CAP ATMOSPHERE PRE-FRONTALLY. 700 HPA TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C. MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE WED NIGHT AND BEGIN TO CAP
ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR POST FRONTAL WITH
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THU NIGHT. WILL ADD SEVERE WORDING FOR
THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH A DRY WEEKEND EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE A SW FLOW ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH A MORE
WIDEPSREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND QUITE
YET...BUT WILL IMPACT KFAR TOWARDS 06Z AS WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
RAMPING UP. HAVE VCSH AROUND THAT TIME FOR KFAR AND GOING ON NOW
AT KDVL BUT HAVE IT HOLDING BACK AT KGFK AND KTVF AS PRECIP ONLY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. WIND SHOULD STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE 10 KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
LATEST HRRR RUN HINTS AT EXPANDING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL
TRIM POPS BACK ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WILL
LEAVE THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY...THIS TIME MORE HUMID.
CURRENTLY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST WITH A
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT...OVER MY FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LACK OF INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND EAST SO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION
FOR THE DURATION OF TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
A DECENT SOUTHERLY MIXING FLOW COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WAA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE 80S. COOLER WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS.
HIGH RES MODELS STILL INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INITIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
IN PROXIMITY TO A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS THEN
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME IN THE
EVENING. COVERAGE STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH LATEST NSHARP
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. DUE TO THIS AND LITTLE FORCING ALOFT
OPTED TO KEEP OUR POPS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING DRY TONIGHT.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT BUT REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE SFC TROUGH OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING...AND WILL KEEP NORTH DAKOTA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 90S WEST. MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY
AS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION THANKS
TO A MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRETCHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...AND
POTENTIAL OF A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DRAWING 60-65F DEWPOINTS INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS IN PLACE UPSTREAM OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REACHES WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE IN THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES (HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RANGING FROM 3000-5000 J/KG) THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS WOULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. HAVE PUT THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FAR WEST...OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THESE TWO DAYS FOR A NICE
REPRIEVE...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORMING OFF THE WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT AS HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...BUT INCREASING HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO ADD TO KJMS TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VCTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
406 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS WARM AND MOIST...THOUGH
NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WAS OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S...RATHER THAN PUSHING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOUDS HELPING TO SLIGHTLY
INHIBIT HEATING...WITH THICK LAYERS OF CUMULUS (2500-4000 FEET)
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...MOVING INTO INDIANA AS OF ABOUT 19Z.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 22Z-04Z. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...THOUGH NONE OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (12Z SPC-WRF
OR RECENT HRRR RUNS) INDICATE THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
PARTICULARLY EXPLOSIVE. WITH WEAK FORCING THAT TIMES OUT A LITTLE
TOO LATE FOR THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY...AND THE DIURNAL
CYCLE HEADS TOWARD ITS LOWER END. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT
YET BE CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WARM MIN TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
SOUTH AND UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
MICHIGAN BORDER...CONTINUING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK INTO INDIANA
AND OHIO. THIS FRONT DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TUESDAY WILL STILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FOR THE REGION...THOUGH
PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOTHING NOTEWORTHY FOR JULY (CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 INCHES). NORTH WINDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON...ESSENTIALLY ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR A
PASSING SHOWER. HOWEVER...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THUS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A GRADIENT FOR MAX
TEMPS...WITH UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH AND MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (AS MUCH AS 10-15
DEGREES LOWER)...MIN TEMPS WILL EASILY BE ABLE TO DROP BELOW
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WE WILL REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST SOME
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
FOR THE WEEKEND...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION. WE MAY REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS MODELS
SUGGEST WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH AN UPTICK IN HIGHS AND HUMIDITY BY
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PESKY STRATUS DECK AT KILN IS FINALLY BREAKING UP AND REST OF CWA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TOPPED BY THIN
CI. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT LATER THIS EVENING AND END
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT CROSSES CWA TOWARDS 12Z TOMORROW MORNING
AND WINDS SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH A DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS
THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. BUT THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AND TEMPORARILY BRING TROUGHING BACK
TO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. FORECAST THEN
LEANS TOWARDS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE/FASTER 00Z GFS AND SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN DROPPING A
FRONT INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PESKY STRATUS DECK AT KILN IS FINALLY BREAKING UP AND REST OF CWA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TOPPED BY THIN
CI. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT LATER THIS EVENING AND END
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT CROSSES CWA TOWARDS 12Z TOMORROW MORNING
AND WINDS SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH A DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
450 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...AS ADVERTISED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP IN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY LINGER WELL AFTER SUNSET AS THEY GET
TRIGGERED BY A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE COAST. THE TROF ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO APPROACH THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
FEED STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC
COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FEWER
AND SMALLER. HOWEVER...EASTERN MODOC COUNTY COULD STILL SEE MORE
AND BIGGER STORMS. IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROF AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW
TAKES OVER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WESTERLY WINDS
COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON EXPOSED MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/00Z TAF CYCLE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT
FOR THE UMPQUA BASIN WHICH COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
SKIES...AND THE COAST WHICH WILL BECOME IFR THIS EVENING BEFORE
SCATTERING BACK OUT TOMORROW MORNING. -SCHAAF
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT, TUESDAY, 21 JULY 2015... NORTH WINDS
WILL PEAK THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE NUDGES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A HAZARDOUS SEAS AND GALE WARNING HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WEST OF PISTOL RIVER SOUTH
THROUGH PORT SAINT GEORGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND ON THURSDAY CAUSING THE NORTH WINDS TO
WEAKEN. SHORT PERIOD SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SCHAAF
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 130 PM PDT, TUESDAY 21 JULY 2015...
THE GFS, NAM, RAP, AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTY, SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY, AND MODOC COUNTY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO SCATTERED AS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER THAT WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. A BIT
BEYOND THE RED FLAG WARNED AREA, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH TO SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA CASCADES TO THE KLAMATH BASIN AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF LAKE COUNTY. THE CELLS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BUT
WILL BE FASTER MOVING THAN USUAL AT 15 TO 20 KT, WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF LIGHTNING PRODUCING FIRE STARTS. AFTER THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BUT NOT
ALTOGETHER END AS A SHORTWAVE LINGERS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND THE
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE NECESSARY IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST,
THE QUESTION OF THE DAY WAS THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK THE REGION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE EAST TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING THE
WARNER MOUNTAINS...AND EXTENDING TO THE EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. BUT,
THE GFS INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 250 TO 750 J/KG IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO VALUES OF 750 TO 1500 J/KG TODAY. THUS, WILL HOLD EXPECTED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED WITH A FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IN SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH WILL
ALSO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WESTERLY WINDS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM, STABLE AIR MASS ARRIVING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE END OF WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$
KRS/KRS/BMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
827 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS WELL ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE COAST, AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD FIELDS IN THE FORECAST TO BRING THINGS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND THE EXPECTED
TRENDS, BUT MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE.
MAIN FOCUS OF EFFORTS TO DAY WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE FIRST ROUND THIS EVENING, LIKELY TO BE
THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE, IS ONLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS
BETWEEN MEDICINE LAKE AND THE TRINITY ALPS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY,
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM MODEL
VARIANTS. HOWEVER, CHANCES EXPAND NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY, THEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR
TO BE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A TRIGGER FEATURE, AND THIS HAS
THROWN A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE MIX. FEEL CONFIDENT
THAT ISOLATED STORMS WILL FORM, BUT MUCH LESS SO THAT SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. WILL EVALUATE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST
THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE,
INCLUDING AT KOTH, INTO THE MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY LIFT. ELSEWHERE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 815 AM PDT, MONDAY, 19 JULY 2015... NORTH WINDS
WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE WEST AND LOW
PRESSURE NUDGES NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY AREA IS EXPECTED TO
SHRINK FOR WEDNESDAY TO A PORTION OF THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
BEYOND 10 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF GOLD BEACH AND POINT SAINT GEORGE,
WHILE ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST HAZARDOUS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND SOME
LATER THIS WEEK CAUSING THESE NORTH WINDS TO WEAKEN. /FB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT, MONDAY 18 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND SOUTHERN MODOC
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS ON TUESDAY NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA AND OVER EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ZONES 284, 285,
SOUTHEAST 624 AND SOUTHERN 625. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS WHEN THE LAST ROUND OF STORMS WENT THROUGH AROUND 2 WEEKS
AGO. MOREOVER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST QUICKLY AT
10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SEE DETAILED HAZARD ON
OUR HOMEPAGE FOR THE ACTUAL LOCATION.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A MARINE PUSH INLAND WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST WITH WINDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND FROM CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY EASTWARD INTO MODOC COUNTY.
/FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015/
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL FEATURE ONE MORE ROUND OF WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH READINGS
EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND THIS WILL USHER IN ENOUGH MOISTURE...LOOSELY
CONNECTED TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES.
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT DUE TO NAM12 H7-H5
MUCAPE IN THE HUNDREDS AND STEEP UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RATES. A WELL-
DEFINED MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH COASTAL VALLEYS SEEING SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY MORE MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL
ACT IN CONCERT WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND WEAK IMPULSE
ALOFT TO GENERATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...WITH BOTH SHOWING SWATHS OF -3C 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. ADDITIONALLY...THE HIGH-RES ARW AND NMM MODELS INFER
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
INTO MODOC AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. IN SHORT...THIS
SUPPORTS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...FOUND AT RFWMFR. THE TRIGGER
CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAKEST INGREDIENT IN THIS THUNDERSTORM
RECIPE...BUT BELIEVE THE OTHER INGREDIENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
ACT ON EVEN A WEAK TRIGGER. ONE NOTE IS THAT STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 15KT IN MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES...LIMITING
WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL THERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER OVER THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
AND USHERS IN MARINE STRATUS ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MOST AREAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...THOUGH SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
ANOTHER COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REACH BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SW.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ281-284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$
BPN/FJB/NSK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM...
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SE HAS ENDED.
ONGOING CLUSTER OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG I-80 CORRIDOR THIS MID
EVENING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
WW443 CONTINUES FOR THIS REGION...BUT HAS BEEN SCALED BACK ALONG
NORTHERN BORDER WHERE THREAT HAS ENDED.
BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK GRADUALLY LATE THIS EVENING AND ESP
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THREAT FOR SHOWERS/POSS A TSTM WILL PERSIST
UNTIL COLD FROPA.
6 PM...
EARLY CONVECTION WHICH POPPED UP IN THE HEAT OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS HAVE DISSIPATED. OTHER THAN A FEW SPECKLES
ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS NOW THE STORMS OVER THE FAR
NW. LOTS OF STORMS SEEM TO SPLIT AND LEAVE THE LEFT-MOVER AS THE
STRONGER CELL. SO HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT WITH THE WIND DAMAGE STILL
THE MAIN THREAT. HAIL MAY END UP MELTING DOWN SOME EVEN IF IT WAS
LARGE ALOFT DUE TO HOT TEMPS AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. TWEAKS
MAINLY FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
PREV...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #443 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH 11 PM EDT. PRELIMINARY CELLS FIRING
DUE TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL RIDGE
PUSHING EAST OF MY AREA. HOTTEST DAY OF SUMMER THUS FAR IN
PROGRESS WITH APPARENT TEMPS SURGING INTO THE 90S THROUGHOUT.
HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 100F AND 104F ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
VERY WARM ALOFT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING OF EARLIER TOWERS
NOW DECREASING AS CIN ANALYSIS SHOWS DESTABLIZATION OCCURRING
OVER LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST PA. JUST ONE HOUR AGO...ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCE SHOWERS BRIEFLY SPROUTED OVER SOUTH MOUNTAIN BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE TERRAIN AND QUICKLY DISSIPATING. SIMILAR SHOWERS
TRYING TO GROW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ARE
NOW OVERCOMING THE CAP. HRRR DOES DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE THIS
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA AREA SIMILAR TO SAT EVENING ACTIVITY BEFORE
DISSIPATING IT WITH THE DECREASE IN DIURNAL HEATING BY 00Z.
MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT FROM
THE EASTERN GLAKS THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NO REAL
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...WITH NORTHERN AREAS STANDING THE
GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...AS THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. FAR
SOUTHEAST MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO RAIN FROM THIS FRONT AS A RESULT
LATE TONIGHT...AS GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE WANING LG SCALE
FORCING ACCOMPANIES FROPA FURTHER SOUTH. THUS TAPERING POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
COOLER/DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME INROADS
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE LOWS IN THE L60S EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE
REST OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN MUGGY AIR MASS FOR ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH LOWS BTWN 70-75F SOUTH OF I-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT NR THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SCT PM CONVECTION ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...ARRIVAL OF LOW PWAT
AIR ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM THE L80S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L90S
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PERIOD. DID GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO SEE A LOT GOING ON AFTER THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LACK
OF SFC CONVERGENCE.
DID GO WITH SOME CHC POPS LATER MONDAY INTO TUE. HIGHEST CHC
ON TUE...AS SECONDARY FRONT DROPS SE.
AFTER THIS...LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WED INTO FRIDAY.
SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS40 HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE SW ON THU.
LEFT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER TEMPS MORE FOR THE PERIOD WED INTO
FRIDAY. MAIN FACTORS ARE LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ON THE MODELS LATELY
ALSO THE TENDENCY FOR THE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONTS TO BE COLDER
THAN FCST LATELY. ALSO THE WET GROUND.
MID SHIFT DID PUT SOME SHOWERS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INTO AT LEAST NW PA ON SUNDAY. EC NOT REALLY
SHOWING MUCH OF THIS. FOR NOW...DID CARRY SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN EVEN RARER TSTM STILL IMPACTING CENTRAL
PA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BUT
ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED SINCE THE EVENING HOURS.
ATTENTION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG/MIST AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR FOG WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF WHERE RAIN OCCURRED /FROM KBFD-KUNV-
KIPT/. LIGHT SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING AN MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK TO MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS. THE SE
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...WITH JUST A BIT OF MVFR FOG POSS RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 12-15Z. MONDAY WILL BRING
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. BUT
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND POSS VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH DURING THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. CIG
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY NW HALF...PRIMARILY VFR SE.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL A.M. FOG POSS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1003 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
STORMS DYING OFF AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST AR ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH OUT OF THIS PRE-12Z WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD
BEHIND. WILL LEAVE ONLY SMALL POPS IN AT THIS TIME THERE.
WILL REMOVE FROM NORTHEAST ALL TOGETHER. NO CHANGES OVERWISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS HAVE BEEN SKIRTING
ALABAMA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. RUC SHOWING SHORT WAVE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT 00Z WILL
WORK EAST NEXT FEW HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY TSTORMS. SCATTERED TSTORMS
IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY SINKING SOUTH BUT APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AT
THIS TIME. I KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSTORMS OUT OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THINK BEST CHANCE WILL COME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE CLOSER LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA LATER THIS
EVENING AND UPDATE TERMINALS IF NEED BE. DO EXPECT FOG IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 90 73 88 71 / 20 20 30 50
CLARKSVILLE 88 71 86 70 / 10 10 30 40
CROSSVILLE 85 68 83 67 / 20 10 30 20
COLUMBIA 91 72 87 71 / 20 20 50 50
LAWRENCEBURG 92 72 87 71 / 30 20 60 50
WAVERLY 91 71 86 70 / 20 20 40 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
724 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS HAVE BEEN SKIRTING
ALABAMA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. RUC SHOWING SHORT WAVE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT 00Z WILL
WORK EAST NEXT FEW HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY TSTORMS. SCATTERED TSTORMS
IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY SINKING SOUTH BUT APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AT
THIS TIME. I KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSTORMS OUT OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THINK BEST CHANCE WILL COME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE CLOSER LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA LATER THIS
EVENING AND UPDATE TERMINALS IF NEED BE. DO EXPECT FOG IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.DISCUSSION... JUST NOW SEEING THE BEGINNINGS OF THE NEXT MCS WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUR WAY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN MO IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR BUT
THE MODELS TRANSFER THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ON AN EASTWARD
TRACK...PRIMARILY NORTH OF OUR AREA. AT ANY RATE...FOR THE FCST THIS
EVENING...WILL ADHERE LARGELY TO THE LATEST RADAR SCANS AND INCLUDE
POPS BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP POPS A
LITTLE ELEVATED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AREAS. AS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...OUR NW COUNTIES ARE STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK. NOT REALLY
SEEING MUCH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT BUT LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
COMBINE WITH A 20 KT FLOW AT 850 TO PERHAPS MAKE THINGS INTERESTING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES DO ABOUND AS FAR AS THE
SOUTHWARD INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR GOES AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS IS MORE BULLISH BUT
STILL...CAPES ARE RATHER HEFTY THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE OVERALL CONVECTION
CHANCES. I WILL MAKE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THE EURO AND NAM ARE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE FRONTS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS...LOW POPS WILL GENERALLY STILL REMAIN.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...MANY PLACES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 100 TO
105 HEAT INDEX ZONE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM AS SCHEDULED. OTW...NUMERICAL MODELS ALL HINT
TOWARD LOWER HUMIDITIES BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BACK OFF
A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS AS WE RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES AND HUMIDITIES.
IN THE EXT FCST...THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THU AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN. HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER TN
AND POPS WILL LOWER.
WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE LOWER LEVEL GULF FETCH WILL NO LONGER
BE IN TACT. THUS...A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS HUMID TEMP REGIME IS
EXPECTED. INSTEAD OF THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS...WHICH IS A CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCE.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 76 93 72 90 / 30 30 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 73 91 69 86 / 50 30 20 20
CROSSVILLE 72 88 68 84 / 40 30 30 20
COLUMBIA 76 94 72 90 / 30 30 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 75 94 72 90 / 20 40 30 40
WAVERLY 73 91 70 87 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>064-075-077-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AT 3 AM AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S IN THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST. CURRENT
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MARCHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH AND WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH SUNRISE. H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS...AND THE CONTINUED
WESTWARD MIGRATION OF THE FEATURE WILL ALLOW DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY...LEADING TO HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105
DEGREES. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARD TO THE ADVISORY AFTER THIS
EVENING...AND THUS THE DAY SHIFT WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND
FOR HOW LONG TO EXTEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL UNDER INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...THOUGH AREAS
PRIMARILY LOCATED IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE HEAT INDICES JUST
NEAR CRITERIA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ABSENT FROM THE REGION...A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION...LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THESE CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WE ADVANCE THE WEEK WITH THE
MIGRATION OF THE BOUNDARY SOUTH. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
HOLD THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS STATIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH SEVERAL
SUBTLE IMPULSES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE FEATURE. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG THIS WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. ALONG WITH INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMES A RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AFTER MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASING AS MODELS HINT AT
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION.
ZDM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LATE EVENING RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF TSRA COMPLEX IN SOUTHEAST MO MAY ENTER
NORTHEAST AR AND NORTHWEST TN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IT MAY BE
CLOSE CALL IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. NAM REMAINS FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING MKL AND JBR DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING FURTHER ON MONDAY... ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN RIVER... POSSIBLY
INTO THE MKL VICINITY.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1143 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.
INCREASED POPS DUE TO STORMS IN MISSOURI...WHICH THE HRRR BRINGS
INTO THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. NAM ALSO HINTS AT SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER AREA TONIGHT. HRRR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MUCH MORE OF THE
AREA COVERED. HOWEVER...ONLY RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY AND THUS ONLY
NORTHERN PORTION HAVE HIGH ENOUGH POPS TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
HEAT ADVISORY STILL CONTINUES FOR THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A RARE EVENT FOR THE MID-SOUTH WITH
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT ADVISORIES...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO DATA
FOUND THIS EVENING AT OFFICE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. TLSJR
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOST AREAS HAVE REMAINED RAIN FREE EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR SAVANNAH AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND QUICKLY
PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL BASED CUMULUS FROM LATE MORNING. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CHANCES ARE THE CHALLENGES
IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAS RESULTED IN HEAT
INDEX READINGS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUD COVER HAS TEMPORARILY DROPPED HEAT INDEX READINGS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THESE AREAS TO SEE VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES AGAIN
BEFORE SUNSET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT WILL WEAKEN
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE KENTUCKY/MISSOURI BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND
NORTH OF I-40 ON MONDAY. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK
OVERALL AND THINK ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE TRIGGERED BY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE HOT ON MONDAY AND HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX READINGS ONCE AGAIN REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
THROUGH AT LEAST 7 PM CDT MONDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR
TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH/EXCEED 105
DEGREES AND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING TO UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE MID SOUTH TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
CJC
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOOKING AT DATA FROM 2004 TO TODAY WHEN THE MEMPHIS OFFICE ISSUED
EITHER A HEAT ADVISORY OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. THE FOLLOWING
TABLES SHOW THE TOP SIX NUMBER OF DAYS IN A ROW A ADVISORY OR
WARNING WERE ISSUED. WE DON/T HAVE RECORDS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES
FOR ALL DAYS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SO USED THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS.
FOR ALL THE MID-SOUTH (THAT IS ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH)
19 DAYS - JULY 29 - AUGUST 16, 2010
13 DAYS - JULY 26 - AUGUST 8, 2011
11 DAYS - JULY 16 - JULY 26, 2010
11 DAYS - JULY 26 - AUGUST 5, 2008
9 DAYS - JULY 18 - JULY 26, 2012
8 DAYS - JULY 12 - JULY 19, 2015 /TODAY/
8 DAYS - JULY 28 - AUGUST 5, 2012
8 DAYS - JUNE 18 - JUNE 25, 2010
8 DAYS - JULY 20 - JULY 27, 2005
WE SHOULD REACH THE TOP FIVE FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY.
LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT MEMPHIS /SHELBY COUNTY/ IT IS ALREADY IN
THE TOP 5 FOR THE PAST 11 YEARS.
FOR SHELBY COUNTY
11 DAYS - JULY 26 - AUGUST 5, 2008
10 DAYS - JULY 30 - AUGUST 8, 2011
10 DAYS - AUGUST 7 - AUGUST 16, 2010
9 DAYS - JULY 18 - JULY 26, 2012
8 DAYS - JULY 12 - JULY 19, 2015 /TODAY/
8 DAYS - JULY 29 - AUGUST 5, 2010
8 DAYS - JUNE 18 - JUNE 25, 2010
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LATE EVENING RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF TSRA COMPLEX IN SOUTHEAST MO MAY ENTER
NORTHEAST AR AND NORTHWEST TN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IT MAY BE
CLOSE CALL IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. NAM REMAINS FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING MKL AND JBR DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING FURTHER ON MONDAY... ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN RIVER... POSSIBLY
INTO THE MKL VICINITY.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015
.AVIATION AND MESOSCALE UPDATE...FOR 06Z FORECAST
MESO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS
IN AREA OF 700 MBAR THERMAL TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE AS CAN BE SEEN
IN LATEST RUC RUN. HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THIS COMPLEX WILL GET IS IN
QUESTION SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY
CAPPED WITH TEMPS AROUND 11 DEGREE CELSIUS ALONG TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
BORDER UNDERNEATH WARM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND AROUND 14
DEGREES ACROSS A GOOD PART OF ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE.
I DID NOTICE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STATIONARY FRONT OR SOME TYPE OF
BOUNDARY FEATURE STRUNG OUT FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER NORTH OF LOUISVILLE. NOT SURE HOW THIS
FEATURE EVOLVED BUT IT IS DEFINITELY THERE. WINDS ARE LIGHT
NORTHERLY NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF COMPLEX. H-TRIPLE-R WORKS COMPLEX DOWN
INTO FAR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND 09Z THE PLAYS IT OUT
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL BASE 06Z FORECASTS ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>064-075-077-093>095.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1031 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS REST OF TONIGHT AS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS
OCCURRED THIS EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOT
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT
TSTMS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER KGUY OR KDHT WILL
BE IMPACTED SO HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS ELEMENT FROM THIS FCST CYCLE.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING FOR PSBL AMENDMENTS. SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE KEPT A SCT
MVFR DECK FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
TONIGHT AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE SATURATED FROM LAST NIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITH VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A MARKED DECREASE IN MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THAT THROUGHOUT
THE LOW LEVELS. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS KEPT THE AREA FROM
DESTABILIZATION AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS YESTERDAY AND ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAS YIELDED A FAIRLY UNIFORM CUMULUS
FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION IN NEW MEXICO HAS FORMED BUT OVERALL EXPANSIVENESS IS FAR
LESS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP PV
ANALYSIS SHOW ONE WAVE TRAVERSING THE PANHANDLES NOW WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TONIGHT GIVEN TRENDS.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AGAIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BRB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
918 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
T-STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS PRETTY MUCH BEEN LIMITED TO THE
VICNITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ARCING NEWD FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO
NORTH TEXAS/RED RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE STORMS MOVING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO HAVE DIED OFF IN THE FACE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES/WEAKER INSTABILITY AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
A SHORTWAVE BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. KAMA 00 UTC SOUNDING
SHOWED A PRETTY STOUT INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. DESPITE THIS...WE
CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SOME
WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD. WE
HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 07 OR 08 UTC. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME OR AREA
SO WE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A CONCERN AT SOME TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
WEST TEXAS...THIS TIME WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT IF
THE FORECAST PANS OUT AS EXPECTED. MODELS PRE-12Z WERE VERY
SKEPTICAL AND DIFFERED GREATLY ON WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION WOULD
OCCUR LATER TODAY. WHILE SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN...MOST MODELS
MINUS THE HRRR HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM
SEEMED TO HAVE AT FIRST GLANCE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AS IT
PICKED UP ON AN AREA OF LIFT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM WHICH STARTED
TO SHOW UP ON WV JUST AFTER 13Z. THE AREA OF LIFT HAS SINCE
ENHANCED FURTHER AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTWARD
PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF RUIDOSO NM. THESE STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS A WESTWARD PROPAGATING
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA. HIGHER RES
MODELS...EVEN THE HRRR TO AN EXTENT...HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MLCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONS SURFACE HEATING
CAN BE ACHIEVED AS TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED INTO MID DAY. THE MAIN
THREAT...AS IS USUALLY OUT HERE IN THESE PARTS...FROM CONVECTION
WOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNBURSTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A VALID THREAT AS WAS
SEEN YESTERDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND
STABILIZES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION MAKING
WAY FOR HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WHICH WILL GREATLY DECREASE STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE FA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TONIGHT WHICH COULD COOL TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FOR NOW
MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FLEETING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. HEIGHT
RISES WILL LIKELY SQUASH ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY. AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITHIN SURFACE TROUGHING
WELL WEST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CHANCE BUT VERY LITTLE OF
ANY STORMS BEING ABLE TO CROSS STATE LINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS WARM BIAS ON MAX
TEMPERATURES AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST BELOW MOS...CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 90 67 94 / 30 20 20 20
TULIA 66 92 69 95 / 30 10 20 10
PLAINVIEW 68 91 70 94 / 20 10 20 0
LEVELLAND 68 93 71 95 / 20 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 72 94 72 97 / 20 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 69 94 70 95 / 30 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 69 94 71 96 / 20 20 20 0
CHILDRESS 73 98 75 101 / 20 10 10 0
SPUR 70 94 73 96 / 20 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 73 98 76 101 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/6
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT
TSTMS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER KGUY OR KDHT WILL
BE IMPACTED SO HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS ELEMENT FROM THIS FCST CYCLE.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING FOR PSBL AMENDMENTS. SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE KEPT A SCT
MVFR DECK FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
TONIGHT AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE SATURATED FROM LAST NIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITH VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A MARKED DECREASE IN MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THAT THROUGHOUT
THE LOW LEVELS. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS KEPT THE AREA FROM
DESTABILIZATION AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS YESTERDAY AND ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAS YIELDED A FAIRLY UNIFORM CUMULUS
FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION IN NEW MEXICO HAS FORMED BUT OVERALL EXPANSIVENESS IS FAR
LESS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP PV
ANALYSIS SHOW ONE WAVE TRAVERSING THE PANHANDLES NOW WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TONIGHT GIVEN TRENDS.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AGAIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BRB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 07 OR 08 UTC. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME OR AREA
SO WE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A CONCERN AT SOME TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
WEST TEXAS...THIS TIME WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT IF
THE FORECAST PANS OUT AS EXPECTED. MODELS PRE-12Z WERE VERY
SKEPTICAL AND DIFFERED GREATLY ON WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION WOULD
OCCUR LATER TODAY. WHILE SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN...MOST MODELS
MINUS THE HRRR HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM
SEEMED TO HAVE AT FIRST GLANCE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AS IT
PICKED UP ON AN AREA OF LIFT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM WHICH STARTED
TO SHOW UP ON WV JUST AFTER 13Z. THE AREA OF LIFT HAS SINCE
ENHANCED FURTHER AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTWARD
PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF RUIDOSO NM. THESE STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS A WESTWARD PROPAGATING
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA. HIGHER RES
MODELS...EVEN THE HRRR TO AN EXTENT...HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MLCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONS SURFACE HEATING
CAN BE ACHIEVED AS TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED INTO MID DAY. THE MAIN
THREAT...AS IS USUALLY OUT HERE IN THESE PARTS...FROM CONVECTION
WOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNBURSTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A VALID THREAT AS WAS
SEEN YESTERDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND
STABILIZES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION MAKING
WAY FOR HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WHICH WILL GREATLY DECREASE STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE FA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TONIGHT WHICH COULD COOL TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FOR NOW
MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FLEETING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. HEIGHT
RISES WILL LIKELY SQUASH ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY. AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITHIN SURFACE TROUGHING
WELL WEST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CHANCE BUT VERY LITTLE OF
ANY STORMS BEING ABLE TO CROSS STATE LINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS WARM BIAS ON MAX
TEMPERATURES AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST BELOW MOS...CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 90 67 94 / 40 20 20 20
TULIA 66 92 69 95 / 40 10 20 10
PLAINVIEW 68 91 70 94 / 40 10 20 0
LEVELLAND 68 93 71 95 / 30 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 72 94 72 97 / 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 69 94 70 95 / 30 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 69 94 71 96 / 30 20 20 0
CHILDRESS 73 98 75 101 / 40 10 10 0
SPUR 70 94 73 96 / 30 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 73 98 76 101 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
242 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL LOOP AND GOES DERIVED TPW SHOWS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE. 12Z SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS WITH A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PWAT FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT (1.47 VS 0.82 INCHES). THIS IS
APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. DOWNSTREAM...A
SHORTWAVE AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT BEHIND IT. VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS SOME
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING SOME THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A TREND TOWARD PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE FAR SOUTH TEXAS
PANHANDLE. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR
WHEELER TO JUST SOUTH OF CANYON. STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED NEAR
CLOVIS AND CU/TCU HAS RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD BE THE
INITIAL FOCUS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING LATER THIS
EVENING.
THE TENDENCY OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS UPPER
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. PRESENCE OF
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS RAISES CONCERN
FOR FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AT OR ABOVE CURRENT QPF
OUTPUT FROM MOST GUIDANCE. IN THE ABSENCE OF A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT BELIEVE THAT THE IMPACTS WOULD BE
LOCALIZED. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE AMOUNTS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS IS
INFLUENCED BY THE BAD AWOS OBSERVATION AT PLAINVIEW/KPVW. THIS IS
GETTING INTO THE RAP AND HAS CONSISTENTLY RESULTED IN A SPURIOUS
7000+ CAPE BULLSEYE IN THE SOUTH TEXAS PANHANDLE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. CAM GUIDANCE NESTED WITHIN THE RAP SUCH AS THE HRRR MAY BE
EXAGGERATED WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF AS A RESULT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A SECONDARY CONCERN TODAY ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SEVERE
EPISODES SHOULD BE BRIEF AND MARGINAL. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS MONSOON PATTERN BUT ARE
STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR SUPPORTING FAIRLY INTENSE
BUT VERTICAL UPDRAFTS WITH WATER LOADING BENEATH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT FROM BRIEF
DOWNBURSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...WEAK ASCENT IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS ON THE 315K
SURFACE WHICH IS FAIRLY MOIST AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT AND IN A WEAKENED STATE
PROBABLY EVEN INTO THE MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
SIMILAR CHALLENGES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAKING SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL DETAILS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND BY MORNING AS WE MONITOR HOW
EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EVOLVES. STARTING WEDNESDAY MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. TOWARD SATURDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS FOR RIDGE FLATTENS AGAIN AND MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 89 66 82 66 91 / 40 60 50 30 10
BEAVER OK 91 68 78 66 91 / 30 60 60 50 20
BOISE CITY OK 84 63 79 62 92 / 30 60 60 40 20
BORGER TX 91 70 82 69 94 / 30 60 60 40 20
BOYS RANCH TX 89 67 84 67 95 / 40 60 60 30 20
CANYON TX 91 66 84 65 92 / 40 60 50 30 10
CLARENDON TX 95 69 85 68 94 / 30 60 50 30 10
DALHART TX 86 65 82 65 94 / 40 60 60 30 20
GUYMON OK 91 67 80 65 93 / 30 60 60 50 20
HEREFORD TX 92 66 86 66 92 / 40 60 50 30 20
LIPSCOMB TX 94 69 79 67 93 / 30 60 60 50 20
PAMPA TX 90 66 79 65 91 / 30 60 60 40 10
SHAMROCK TX 96 70 85 68 95 / 30 60 50 40 10
WELLINGTON TX 98 71 89 69 97 / 20 50 50 30 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
134 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO IOWA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH LESS
HUMID AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE FORECAST UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REFLECT A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEWLY ARRIVED 12Z/8AM NAM AND GFS SUPPORT WHAT THE MESO-SCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT...NAMELY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN OUR MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS OF VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...HAVE MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS
A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE SHOWERS WERE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SLOW THE RISE OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE OCCURRING IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS. THERE
ARE WEAK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF
BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES OF VIRGINIA. THERE ARE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...HEADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR COVERAGE IN INCREASE ONCE WE REACH THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NO NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED UPON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS MORNING. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY SURVIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE 12Z/8AM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WIND EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LEE TROUGHING IN
PLACE...FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT MAY ALSO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPING AND MIXING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND KEEP THE HEAT INDEX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. NO HEAT ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING
AND IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO THE LEE TROUGH PERCHED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KENTUCKY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...TO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA (BLUEFIELD VA-
LEWISBURG WV). LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY
QUICKLY...REDUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
MORNING SHOWERS MAY NOT COMPLETELY FADE AS THEY APPROACH THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THIS WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT JUMPS TO
THE LEE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...A NEW LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
FORM. ALL MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING WHERE THIS LINE
WILL INITIATE. BASED ON WHERE MODELS HAVE THE LEE TROUGH
POSITIONED...THIS LINE WILL BE EAST OF HWY 29...POSSIBLY EAST OF HWY
501. THE DEW POINT FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY NOT SEE
SHOWERS CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WITH CLEARING
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE DEW POINT FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. A WEAK BUT COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE REGION DRY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAY FOR THIS WEEK. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RANGE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...HOPEFULLY SAFELY ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OF MUCH EXTENT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THURSDAY AS THERE IS YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT COULD BUCKLE THE BOUNDARY BACK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NW NC MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS BETTER PROBABILITY/CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE THIS FEATURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKE THE
CONVECTION WITH IT.
A WEAK UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE
WEEKEND AND STALLS. BY SAT-SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WE QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO A MORE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
TO REACH THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW +20C THU-SAT...CREEPING BACK ABOVE +20C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY THU
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE QUITE REFRESHING...BEFORE THEY CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU-FRI...SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENTLY...ALL TAF SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE
HOLDING WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WHILE KLWB/KBLF CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH
THE VFR/MVFR LINE. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB
INTO VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSSES THE AREA...AS A COLD FRONT SINKS
TOWARD THE WV/VA LINE THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED VCTS FROM ALL SITES
EXCEPT KBLF DUE TO A DROP EXPECTED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...IN
PART TO EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF
VA AND HIGHLANDS OF NC. NEAR-TERM MODELS TEND TO AGREE..WITH
LITTLE TO NO INITIATION EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. THIS MAY
NEED AMENDING BASED ON FUTURE RADAR TRENDS...ESPECIALLY IF
HEATING BECOMES ENOUGH FOR SPOTTY INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL STORM/LTG
FORMATION MAINLY IN THE FAR WEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
IMPACT KLYH AND KDAN. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. REMOVED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST AFTER 02Z/10PM AT KBLF.
BR/FG FORMATION WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON
THE OCCURRENCE OF RAINFALL...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS TUESDAY AM. KEPT
BR/FG FORMATION AT KLWB AND BR AT KBLF WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SITES HAVE BEEN LEFT OFF DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
AN AM MID-DECK ALONG WITH LOW MON EVENING POPS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
AMENDED BASED ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPERIENCED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY... AS A
REINFORCED FRONT SINKS SWD IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. A BIT CONCERNED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE DRY-AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SOME MODELS BRING
INTO THE AREA WELL BEFORE PEAK-HEATING...WHICH COULD GREATLY
DIMINISH COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION.
THIS FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
BUCKLES NWD AGAIN FRIDAY. SO FOR NOW WILL EXPECT OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION TUESDAY...THEN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
WED/THU MORNING IN THE BCB/LWB AREA PENDING HOW DRY THE AIR GETS
BEHIND THIS FRONT. THEN MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS/JM
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO IOWA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH LESS
HUMID AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE FORECAST UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REFLECT A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEWLY ARRIVED 12Z/8AM NAM AND GFS SUPPORT WHAT THE MESO-SCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT...NAMELY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN OUR MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS OF VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...HAVE MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS
A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE SHOWERS WERE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP SLOW THE RISE OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE OCCURRING IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS. THERE
ARE WEAK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF
BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES OF VIRGINIA. THERE ARE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...HEADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR COVERAGE IN INCREASE ONCE WE REACH THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NO NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED UPON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS MORNING. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY SURVIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE 12Z/8AM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WIND EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LEE TROUGHING IN
PLACE...FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT MAY ALSO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPING AND MIXING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND KEEP THE HEAT INDEX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. NO HEAT ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING
AND IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO THE LEE TROUGH PERCHED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KENTUCKY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...TO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA (BLUEFIELD VA-
LEWISBURG WV). LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY
QUICKLY...REDUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
MORNING SHOWERS MAY NOT COMPLETELY FADE AS THEY APPROACH THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THIS WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT JUMPS TO
THE LEE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...A NEW LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
FORM. ALL MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING WHERE THIS LINE
WILL INITIATE. BASED ON WHERE MODELS HAVE THE LEE TROUGH
POSITIONED...THIS LINE WILL BE EAST OF HWY 29...POSSIBLY EAST OF HWY
501. THE DEW POINT FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY NOT SEE
SHOWERS CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WITH CLEARING
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE DEW POINT FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. A WEAK BUT COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE REGION DRY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAY FOR THIS WEEK. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RANGE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...HOPEFULLY SAFELY ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OF MUCH EXTENT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THURSDAY AS THERE IS YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT COULD BUCKLE THE BOUNDARY BACK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NW NC MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS BETTER PROBABILITY/CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE THIS FEATURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKE THE
CONVECTION WITH IT.
A WEAK UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE
WEEKEND AND STALLS. BY SAT-SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WE QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO A MORE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
TO REACH THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW +20C THU-SAT...CREEPING BACK ABOVE +20C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY THU
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE QUITE REFRESHING...BEFORE THEY CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU-FRI...SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1730 AM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BEFORE
14Z. NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR LOCAL AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER ENERGY CROSSES
THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST.
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT KLYH AND KDAN. THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST AFTER 03Z/11PM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SINCE A FRONT WILL
SINK SWD IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND BUCKLES NWD AGAIN FRIDAY. SO
FOR NOW WILL EXPECT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION
TUESDAY...THEN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WED/THU MORNING IN THE BCB/LWB
AREA PENDING HOW DRY THE AIR GETS BEHIND THIS FRONT. THEN MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1003 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO IOWA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH LESS
HUMID AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE OCCURRING IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS. THERE
ARE WEAK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF
BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES OF VIRGINIA. THERE ARE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...HEADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AND ALSO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR COVERAGE IN INCREASE ONCE WE REACH THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NO NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED UPON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS MORNING. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY SURVIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE 12Z/8AM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WIND EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LEE TROUGHING IN
PLACE...FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT MAY ALSO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPING AND MIXING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND KEEP THE HEAT INDEX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. NO HEAT ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING
AND IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO THE LEE TROUGH PERCHED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KENTUCKY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...TO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA (BLUEFIELD VA-
LEWISBURG WV). LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY
QUICKLY...REDUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
MORNING SHOWERS MAY NOT COMPLETELY FADE AS THEY APPROACH THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THIS WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT JUMPS TO
THE LEE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...A NEW LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
FORM. ALL MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING WHERE THIS LINE
WILL INITIATE. BASED ON WHERE MODELS HAVE THE LEE TROUGH
POSITIONED...THIS LINE WILL BE EAST OF HWY 29...POSSIBLY EAST OF HWY
501. THE DEW POINT FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY NOT SEE
SHOWERS CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WITH CLEARING
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE DEW POINT FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. A WEAK BUT COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE REGION DRY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAY FOR THIS WEEK. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RANGE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...HOPEFULLY SAFELY ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OF MUCH EXTENT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THURSDAY AS THERE IS YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT COULD BUCKLE THE BOUNDARY BACK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NW NC MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS BETTER PROBABILITY/CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE THIS FEATURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKE THE
CONVECTION WITH IT.
A WEAK UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE
WEEKEND AND STALLS. BY SAT-SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WE QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO A MORE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
TO REACH THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW +20C THU-SAT...CREEPING BACK ABOVE +20C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY THU
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE QUITE REFRESHING...BEFORE THEY CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU-FRI...SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1730 AM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BEFORE
14Z. NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR LOCAL AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER ENERGY CROSSES
THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST.
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT KLYH AND KDAN. THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST AFTER 03Z/11PM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SINCE A FRONT WILL
SINK SWD IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND BUCKLES NWD AGAIN FRIDAY. SO
FOR NOW WILL EXPECT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION
TUESDAY...THEN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WED/THU MORNING IN THE BCB/LWB
AREA PENDING HOW DRY THE AIR GETS BEHIND THIS FRONT. THEN MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO IOWA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH LESS
HUMID AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS MORNING. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY SURVIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE 12Z/8AM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WIND EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LEE TROUGHING IN
PLACE...FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT MAY ALSO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPING AND MIXING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND KEEP THE HEAT INDEX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. NO HEAT ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING
AND IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO THE LEE TROUGH PERCHED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KENTUCKY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...TO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA (BLUEFIELD VA-
LEWISBURG WV). LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY
QUICKLY...REDUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
MORNING SHOWERS MAY NOT COMPLETELY FADE AS THEY APPROACH THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THIS WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT JUMPS TO
THE LEE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...A NEW LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
FORM. ALL MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING WHERE THIS LINE
WILL INITIATE. BASED ON WHERE MODELS HAVE THE LEE TROUGH
POSITIONED...THIS LINE WILL BE EAST OF HWY 29...POSSIBLY EAST OF HWY
501. THE DEW POINT FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY NOT SEE
SHOWERS CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WITH CLEARING
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE DEW POINT FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. A WEAK BUT COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE REGION DRY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAY FOR THIS WEEK. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RANGE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...HOPEFULLY SAFELY ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OF MUCH EXTENT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THURSDAY AS THERE IS YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT COULD BUCKLE THE BOUNDARY BACK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NW NC MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS BETTER PROBABILITY/CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE THIS FEATURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKE THE
CONVECTION WITH IT.
A WEAK UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE
WEEKEND AND STALLS. BY SAT-SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WE QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO A MORE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
TO REACH THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW +20C THU-SAT...CREEPING BACK ABOVE +20C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY THU
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE QUITE REFRESHING...BEFORE THEY CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU-FRI...SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1730 AM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BEFORE
14Z. NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR LOCAL AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER ENERGY CROSSES
THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST.
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT KLYH AND KDAN. THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST AFTER 03Z/11PM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SINCE A FRONT WILL
SINK SWD IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND BUCKLES NWD AGAIN FRIDAY. SO
FOR NOW WILL EXPECT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION
TUESDAY...THEN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WED/THU MORNING IN THE BCB/LWB
AREA PENDING HOW DRY THE AIR GETS BEHIND THIS FRONT. THEN MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO IOWA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH LESS
HUMID AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA THIS MORNING. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY SURVIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE 12Z/8AM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WIND EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LEE TROUGHING IN
PLACE...FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT MAY ALSO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPING AND MIXING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND KEEP THE HEAT INDEX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. NO HEAT ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING
AND IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO THE LEE TROUGH PERCHED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KENTUCKY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...TO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA (BLUEFIELD VA-
LEWISBURG WV). LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY
QUICKLY...REDUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
MORNING SHOWERS MAY NOT COMPLETELY FADE AS THEY APPROACH THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THIS WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER THE AREA. AS THE FRONT JUMPS TO
THE LEE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...A NEW LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
FORM. ALL MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING WHERE THIS LINE
WILL INITIATE. BASED ON WHERE MODELS HAVE THE LEE TROUGH
POSITIONED...THIS LINE WILL BE EAST OF HWY 29...POSSIBLY EAST OF HWY
501. THE DEW POINT FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY NOT SEE
SHOWERS CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WITH CLEARING
IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE DEW POINT FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. A WEAK BUT COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE REGION DRY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAY FOR THIS WEEK. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RANGE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EAST. WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...HOPEFULLY SAFELY ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OF MUCH EXTENT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THURSDAY AS THERE IS YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT COULD BUCKLE THE BOUNDARY BACK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NW NC MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS BETTER PROBABILITY/CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE THIS FEATURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKE THE
CONVECTION WITH IT.
A WEAK UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE
WEEKEND AND STALLS. BY SAT-SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WE QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO A MORE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
TO REACH THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW +20C THU-SAT...CREEPING BACK ABOVE +20C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA BY THU
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE QUITE REFRESHING...BEFORE THEY CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU-FRI...SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF OHIO WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST BUT HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE KBLF
AND KLWB TAF BEFORE 12Z. FORMATION OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. NO FOG FOG NOW EXPECTED AT
KROA BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN KBCB/KLYH AND
KDAN THROUGH 13Z/9AM.
WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST. LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT KLYH AND KDAN. THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST BY 03Z/11PM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SINCE A FRONT WILL
SINK SWD IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND BUCKLES NWD AGAIN FRIDAY. SO
FOR NOW WILL EXPECT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION
TUESDAY...THEN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WED/THU MORNING IN THE BCB/LWB
AREA PENDING HOW DRY THE AIR GETS BEHIND THIS FRONT. THEN MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
248 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH PLOWING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA /
SASKATCHEWAN...AND TROUGHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN
MN. A SHORTWAVE WAS ALSO EVIDENT OVER EASTERN IOWA...WHICH
COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES HELPED
BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MARCHING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...NOW FROM GREEN BAY TO OELWEIN.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BEEN LIMITED DUE TO MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS...
BUT RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PREVENTING MORE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS DOWN TO 0.75 INCHES...RESULTING IN DRYING
OF THE AIR INCLUDING AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED IN THE COLD POOL REGION UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH IN FAR
NORTHERN MN/ONTARIO. BREEZY CONDITIONS NOTED TOO BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME MIXING. THESE NORTHWEST
WINDS WERE DRIVING IN COLDER AIR...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C
AHEAD COMPARED TO 8-10C OVER NORTHERN MN. SURFACE RIDGE RESIDED
WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THE DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD EXIT BY 23/00Z AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT...COOLER...DRIER AIR
REMAINS ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN MN LOOKS TO SWING ACROSS
ALL OF WI TONIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 10-11C BY 12Z TUE.
ANY OF THE SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD POOL LOOK TO STAY WELL
NORTH AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES AND LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES CUMULUS. IF NOT FOR A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WE COULD SEE A DECENT VALLEY FOG EVENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE MORE SHELTERED SMALLER VALLEYS LIKE THE WISCONSIN
WILL FOG. THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD ALSO RADIATE NICELY AND DIP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 50S. PLENTY OF SUN ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 12-14C
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THANKS TO DEEP MIXING...HIGHS IN THE 70S SHOULD BE
COMMON WITH LOW 80S FOUND IN RIVER VALLEYS AND SANDY SOIL AREAS. THE
DEEP MIXING ALSO SHOULD PROMOTE IN QUITE A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
UPPER RIDGING SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SASKATCHEWAN /
ALBERTA IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOVING OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN...COMBINED WITH THE FRONT
TODAY PUSHING ALL THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF I-70 RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT LOOKS TO
SET UP LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SITUATED FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE 20.12Z NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE INTENSITY AND THUS QPF PRODUCTION TO THE POINT OF
NEARLY DRY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE 20.12Z GFS STILL PRODUCES SOME
QPF. BELIEVE THE GFS MIGHT BE OVERLY MOIST...A KNOWN BIAS...AND
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES DURING MID-
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE ON A WARMING
TREND AS 850MB TEMPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB TO 14-16C BY 00Z FRI. MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH VALLEY FOG TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MUCH FOG OUT.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A
PORTION OF THE DEEP TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT DROPS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 20.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL WANT TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THEN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMES THROUGH. SOME TIMING
ISSUES THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SPREAD OUT...THOUGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL OUT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE GFS PANS OUT WE MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP ITS SEVERE THREAT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOMETHING TO
WATCH. DRIER WEATHER THEN FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING BACK IN. PERHAPS ANOTHER INTERESTING PERIOD
COULD SETUP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE ECMWF...AS
A SHORTWAVE COMES DOWN THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE SOME
LOW CHANCES ON MONDAY PER CONSENSUS BUT THESE MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY AT OR ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS...AND SOME OF THE HIGHS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST ALTHOUGH
NEAR CONSENSUS COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KMCW TO KRST TO KRPD AT 20.1730Z
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES...KEEPING THEM DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 21.18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 KTS AT KRST THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.UPDATE...
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...CLIPPING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEING
HELPED ALONG BY THESE FEATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
CENTRAL IOWA.
MESOSCALE MODELS WERE MIXED WITH INITIALIZATION OF CURRENT
FEATURES...AND DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT HANDLE ON
SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH TALL AND SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPES UP TO
800 J/KG OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST...WITH POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.
GIVEN THE ABOVE...EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY EARLY EVENING...AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STORMS. BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE DAY...WHICH MAY HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT. MAY HAVE
TO ADJUST THESE DOWNWARD FROM THE CURRENT MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
BROKEN VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE...USED
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW. MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
LINGER ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LINGER
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. HIGH WAVES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT COULD
CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE PUT
SOME HIGH CHANCES IN THERE FOR THE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND NOON TODAY. HAVE LIKED THE RAP THIS
MORNING AND ITS TRENDS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY...WHICH
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT 1000 J/KG MLCAPE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 20.00Z
NAM/GFS WHICH ARE PUSHING CLOSER TO 2000-3000 J/KG THANKS TO
FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER 70F. SHOULD THE RAP THERMAL
PROFILE PAN OUT...IT WOULD MEAN A SKINNY CAPE SCENARIO WITH
DECREASING SHEAR DUE TO THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE DRY SOUNDING...AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR TODAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN WI ON TUESDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA WILL SET UP A BLOCKING PATTERN AND WE
WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY MODIFY INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER BY THE LAKESHORE.
THE GFS ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO MAKE IT ACROSS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING PRECIP TO WI ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT RUNS INTO THE DRY AIR AND KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST FOR THU SINCE PRECIP
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO REACH
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO WI. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND BRINGS A BOWLING
BALL UPPER LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
CROSSING WI FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND
DELAYS THE SURFACE TROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRIDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DOWN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP US IN A FAIRLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT MAX
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AS WELL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 20-25KT RANGE. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL...BUT THINK THAT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY STAY VFR GIVEN HOW DRY CONDITIONS ARE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MARINE...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WITH THE GUSTY OFF SHORE WINDS WHICH
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PUSH INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE...PARTICULARLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WAVES WILL BE THE HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE OPEN
WATER DUE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE TO PUSH OUT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THESE POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS
WELL WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT COULD
CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE PUT
SOME HIGH CHANCES IN THERE FOR THE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND NOON TODAY. HAVE LIKED THE RAP THIS
MORNING AND ITS TRENDS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY...WHICH
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT 1000 J/KG MLCAPE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 20.00Z
NAM/GFS WHICH ARE PUSHING CLOSER TO 2000-3000 J/KG THANKS TO
FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER 70F. SHOULD THE RAP THERMAL
PROFILE PAN OUT...IT WOULD MEAN A SKINNY CAPE SCENARIO WITH
DECREASING SHEAR DUE TO THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE DRY SOUNDING...AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR TODAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN WI ON TUESDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA WILL SET UP A BLOCKING PATTERN AND WE
WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY MODIFY INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER BY THE LAKESHORE.
THE GFS ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO MAKE IT ACROSS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING PRECIP TO WI ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT RUNS INTO THE DRY AIR AND KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST FOR THU SINCE PRECIP
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO REACH
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO WI. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND BRINGS A BOWLING
BALL UPPER LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
CROSSING WI FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND
DELAYS THE SURFACE TROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRIDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DOWN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP US IN A FAIRLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT MAX
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AS WELL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 20-25KT RANGE. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL...BUT THINK THAT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY STAY VFR GIVEN HOW DRY CONDITIONS ARE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WITH THE GUSTY OFF SHORE WINDS WHICH
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PUSH INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE...PARTICULARLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WAVES WILL BE THE HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE OPEN
WATER DUE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE TO PUSH OUT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THESE POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS
WELL WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES PER LATEST RADAR AND SAT TRENDS ALONG WITH
HIGH RES PROGS. HRRR DEVELOPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVE...AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH NWRN CO MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT DISCOUNT
IT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION IS NOW E OF THE
CORRIDOR...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
PLAINS. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
CURRENTLY...SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S
TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING WY. THE DAY STARTED
OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS AND MT CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO
INITIATE. A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING...AND FORTUITOUS TIMING OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE...HAS NOW KICKED SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON ACTUAL ONGOING WX...SO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHALLENGING. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...BANDS OF CONVECTION...LIKELY TIED TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TO THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE UNTIL
THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING...SO NO WORD OF ANY
FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR AND STORMS HAVE BEEN AVOIDING AREA BURN
SCARS...SO FAR. SPC HAS PAINTED MUCH OF THE E PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL
AREA....SO THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH. THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT...AND
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE FROM WEST TO EAST AND TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO COLORADO...SHUNTING AVAILABLE MOISTURE
EITHER FAR NORTH...OR WELL SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE THE ISOLATED
SHOT AT MT CONVECTION STARTING MIDDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE START TO A WARM AND ESSENTIALLY DRY PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE E
PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD WILL LIKELY SEE LESS STORMS OVERALL AS DRIER AIR
IS FORECAST TO IMPINGE OVER THIS REGION DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SO THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE...IE...THE PIKES PEAK REGION...WETS AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE AND ONLY MODEST WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE POPS OVER THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE WILL
BE IN THE ISOLD TO LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...WITH MAINLY ISOLD POPS
OVER THE PLAINS. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE L/M90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S OVER THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF THE SE CO PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY THAT LOW CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AT KCOS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY WED THAT IT HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE TAF. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. PROBABILITY IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER AT KPUB SO WILL LEAVE THE LOW CLOUD GROUP SCT FOR NOW...BUT
THIS MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENT IF LOW CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KALS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE CO ON WED...SO TS PROBABILITIES WILL BE
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN AS VCTS IN THE TAFS. THERE COULD BE SOME
BUILDUPS OVER THE MTS...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY.
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AND FROM CMI TO JUST SOUTH OF SPI WILL SEE SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB OR APPROX 6000 FEET...WHICH
WOULD BRING US AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THICKEN UP EVEN MORE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 00Z.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXTENDED
SUN-WED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY
AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO
AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE
RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE
RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS DRY, BUT THE NAM CONTINUING TO
TREND THE TRACK JUST TO THE NE AND INTO ILX/S SW. SLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THU.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE
AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. POOL OF
HEAT OVER THE DESERT SW SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE MIDWEST WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 20-23C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
MIXED DOWN, TEMPS AT THE SFC SET TO MAX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, MODELS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLED CONSIDERABLY SHOULD THE
PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE SAT NIGHT-TUES TIME FRAME
MATERIALIZES. PREV DRY RUNS UNDER THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW
ARE LOSING THE DRY FORECAST TO A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SFC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SIMILAR TO THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH THIS SUMMER. WITH A
LACK OF CONTINUITY OR CONSENSUS, SLIGHTS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 06Z TAF PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-8KT ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
339 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST
NOTABLE THING WILL BE THE FACT THESE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTER EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US IN A SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND/UNDER 10 MPH. WE
LACK A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE NIL TO VERY
LOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES START TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...WITH VALUES
MOSTLY AROUND THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE NAM SUGGEST VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BUT THIS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 KNOTS. 0-1 KM HELICITY
VALUES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND EUROPEAN.
OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 80-150 M^2/S^2 OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT A TRUE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM TODAY...WE ARE RELYING SOLELY ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH IS
NOT BACK ACROSS KANSAS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE ARE REALLY GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET
RAINFALL TODAY. MANY OF THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS SUGGEST
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE HRRR IS REALLY THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. NMM...ARW...AND THE
NAM4KM ALL HAVE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. I HAVE DECREASED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
IT APPEARS OMEGA WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH INCLUDES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION OR TWO COULD CLEAR THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH GENERALLY 20-
40% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING
AND NEXT TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...LOW VALUES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH VALUES
OF POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD PRESENT ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAY TO DAY...GIVEN THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF ~2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FELT IT PRUDENT
TO GO WITH A MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON MOST
DAYS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 100
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND AROUND 105 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT INDEX WORDING IN THE HWO AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HEAT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE ADDED A SWATH OF 30-60 POPS FROM THE
WHITEVILLE-LAKE WACCAMAW AREA EAST INTO WILMINGTON WITH A PERSISTENT
BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20 MPH. COMPARED
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS SAMPSON...PENDER AND DUPLIN
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS IS WEAKER AND MORE LIMITED IN
VERTICAL DEPTH BUT STILL CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND PRODUCING LIGHTNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF DARLINGTON
MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME HOLDING TOGETHER. REGARDLESS...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE IN THE 3-5 AM TIMEFRAME WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM
FOLLOWS...
THE FA IS UNDER THE SOUTHERN END OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...AND SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE NATURE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ILM CWA.
THE SFC TROF/COOL FRONT COMBO ORIENTED ENE-WSW...SHOULD PUSH TO OR
JUST OFF THE ILM CWA COASTS AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW TO N AFTER THIS BOUNDARIES PASSAGE. IN
FACT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS AREAS...ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS HAVING RECEIVED RAINFALL. TEMPS/DEWPTS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. OVERALL...HRRR MODEL HAD THE GENERAL
TRENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE WORSE
CONVECTION N THRU NE OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST AT SUNRISE IN THE MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
THIS FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS FRONT IS
TO SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO
GEORGETOWN WILL HAVE WAIT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE 90S AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. ON
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 90 IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TO THE 92 TO 95
RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TO A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE WITH THE LOW RIDING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S WITH TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EAST...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING A WEAKER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THAT A COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THIS FLOW NEXT TUESDAY THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE HERE. FOR
FRIDAY TROUGH MONDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL BELOW 1.5 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS.
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN OUTER
BANKS...BUT NEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY STILL AFFECT THE ILM AIRPORT
OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN MAY SEE SOME FOG...PREDOMINATELY MVFR.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH.
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MYRTLE BEACH & FLORENCE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH. FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE ISSUED AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
FOR THE NC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING NEAR 20 MILES FROM SHORE AT THIS TIME...BUT THE TREND
SHOULD BE TOWARD RAPID IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH IN STRENGTH. LATEST SEAS AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF
SOUTHPORT WERE 5.5 FEET...WITH 4 FOOT SEAS AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. OFFSHORE THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAS HAD
6 FOOT SEAS SINCE 9 PM EDT. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
BASED ON LATEST WIND AND SEAS REPORTS/TRENDS AND HRRR PROGRESSION OF
WX FEATURES...HAVE TWEAKED BOTH WIND AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT MAINLY A SLOW
VEERING WIND DIRECTION CHANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
WED HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE W-NW WIND DIRECTIONS BY DAYBREAK WED.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE SFC TROF AXIS TO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MORE-SO
OCCURRING AFTER DAYBREAK WED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ALSO A BIT SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH A CONTINUED UNDERLYING LAZY 1 FOOT OR LESS SE
GROUND SWELL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER SANTEE. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THIS
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SWITCHING TO THE THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST BY MORNING TO MID-MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE BACK FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR SO TO THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
THE HIGH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
ENSUING. A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS...REMAINING WEAKLY FORCED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
346 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LATEST
(7UTC) HRRR IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE VALLEY AS IT HAS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...YET CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE HRRR/RAP/WRF/NAM.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING...COVERAGE
AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD PLACEMENT
OF QPF COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH IS
ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ND
ON THURSDAY. ALL MODELS FORECAST AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
BY 18Z WITH SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
ND...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM
SHEAR STARTS OUT AROUND 20-25KTS AT 18Z THU PER GFS/NAM WITH
STRONGER VALUES DISPLACED WEST OF BEST CAPE...EVENTUALLY INCREASING
TO 30-35KTS BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONTANA...BRUSHING WESTERN ND AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC...GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KJMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO TRIM POPS FURTHER EAST AND SLIGHTLY ADJUST
TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
TRIMMED POPS AGAIN CENTRAL FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. HRRR CONTINUES TO TO HOLD ONTO SOME CONVECTION
WEST TONIGHT. BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. INSTEAD WILL FOCUS ON
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
LATEST HRRR RUN HINTS AT EXPANDING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL
TRIM POPS BACK ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WILL
LEAVE THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY IN PLACE FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY...THIS TIME MORE HUMID.
CURRENTLY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST WITH A
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT...OVER MY FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LACK OF INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND EAST SO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION
FOR THE DURATION OF TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
A DECENT SOUTHERLY MIXING FLOW COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WAA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE 80S. COOLER WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS.
HIGH RES MODELS STILL INDICATE A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INITIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
IN PROXIMITY TO A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS THEN
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME IN THE
EVENING. COVERAGE STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH LATEST NSHARP
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. DUE TO THIS AND LITTLE FORCING ALOFT
OPTED TO KEEP OUR POPS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING DRY TONIGHT.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT BUT REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE SFC TROUGH OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING...AND WILL KEEP NORTH DAKOTA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 90S WEST. MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY
AS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION THANKS
TO A MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW STRETCHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...AND
POTENTIAL OF A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DRAWING 60-65F DEWPOINTS INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS IN PLACE UPSTREAM OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REACHES WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. KEPT A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE IN THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES (HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RANGING FROM 3000-5000 J/KG) THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS WOULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. HAVE PUT THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FAR WEST...OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THESE TWO DAYS FOR A NICE
REPRIEVE...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORMING OFF THE WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT AS HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...BUT INCREASING HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KJMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT RADAR TRENDS...BUT CONTINUE THINK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES AND A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
MADE A FEW FURTHER TWEAKS TO POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STARTED TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL ND
FROM SD. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
ACTIVITY AND IT HAS THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH DISSIPATING AND MORE
ACTIVITY FIRING JUST WEST OF THE RED RIVER LATER ON DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN HAVE ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING FURTHER NORTH FROM THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NOT A LOT OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO WENT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
TWEAKED POPS A BIT TONIGHT...A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS HAVE STARTED
TO MORE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RETURNS
ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. THINK WE WILL GET SOME
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND EVENTUALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER
TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED POPS GOING OVERNIGHT STARTING
IN THE WEST AND TRANSITIONING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS PROGRESSIVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
THU. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO OVER AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AS
CROSS SECTION INDICATES MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. BIS SOUNDING
INDICATED MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WAS MOVING IN BETWEEN 750 AND 550
HPA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FOLLOW ON THU.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AROUND 84 HOURS AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF AK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE THU. NAM AND GFS
SHOWALTERS BECOME QUITE NEGATIVE FOR THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS
MUCH LESS NEGATIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN
PLACE THU AFTERNOON WILL CAP ATMOSPHERE PRE-FRONTALLY. 700 HPA TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C. MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE WED NIGHT AND BEGIN TO CAP
ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR POST FRONTAL WITH
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THU NIGHT. WILL ADD SEVERE WORDING FOR
THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH A DRY WEEKEND EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE A SW FLOW ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH A MORE
WIDEPSREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH CIGS
AROUND 8000 FT AND ABOVE FOR THE MOST PART. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IMPACTING KFAR AND KDVL WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AND
SHOULD BE NEAR KGFK AND KTVF BY EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KBJI AFTER SUNRISE BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING TO ABOVE 10 KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
437 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL USHER IN COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT A BROKEN LINE OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NOW STRETCHES FROM LONG ISLAND TO CENTRAL VA.
LLVL RIDGING AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT WILL LEAD TO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PRACTICALLY ALL
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...COMPLETE WITH REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR.
THE LONE...SMALL FRUIT FLY IN THE OINTMENT COMES IN THE FORM OF A
WELL-DEFINED/BUT RATHER COMPACT MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KT 300 MB JETLET...THAT WAS FOCUSED OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT 08Z. THIS SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY AND
UVVEL WILL SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY TODAY. SOME BKN-OVC
HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SPRINKLES OR EVEN A BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR NW CWA. LATEST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THIS SPOTTY AND VERY MINOR QPF
POTENTIAL.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL SET UP
RESIDENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PATTERN OVER NOAM SHIFTS FROM
THE UNPLEASANTLY HUMID/WET WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW PW WILL SPELL A GEM OF A DAY
TODAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND NWRLY UPPER FLOW
ACROSS PENN DELIVERS A MORE REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR TO THE
REGION...GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE RECENT 8 WEEKS OF FREQUENTLY
HUMID AND WET WEATHER.
A NW BREEZE...FRESHENING TO 8-12 KTS /WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS/ WILL COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...AND MAX TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST /JUST A
FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN PENN TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES /AND JUST A LIGHT NW BREEZE EARLY
TONIGHT/.
AN EVEN COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP...WITH MINS EARLY THURSDAY RANGING
FROM THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND COLD SPOTS THROUGHOUT
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TO THE U50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COOL AIR TEMPS AND WARM WATER TEMPS MAY YIELD SOME PATCHY 2SM
RIVER VALLEY FOG UP NORTH BETWEEN 08-12Z THUR.
ANOTHER SPLENDID MID SUMMER DAY FOR THURSDAY...UNDER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST 1-3
DEG F SHY OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1016-1018 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE PA/OHIO BORDER
TO START THE PERIOD...WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER WITH MAINLY LIGHT WIND...CONTINUED COMFORTABLY LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MAINLY AFTER
00Z SUNDAY...AS LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING SHEAR
DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WENT DRY FOR TUE...AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS SE. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID CLOUD DECK SLIDING OFF LAKE ERIE INTO WESTERN NY STATE AS COOL
POOL ALOFT EVEN GENERATES A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. PROB REMAINS REMOTE
THAT ONE OF THESE WILL SNEAK TOWARDS KBFD. ELSEWHERE...
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND LATEST FRONTAL
PASSAGE /TUE AFT AND EVE/ MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL
EXTEND INTO SAT.
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 10
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL A.M. FOG POSS NORTH.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...CHC SHRA/TSTM. MVFR CIGS POSS NW.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF A T-STORM IN THE VICINITY OF ANY OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 11 OR 12 UTC...THEN AT KLBB AND KPVW
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
UPDATE...
T-STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS PRETTY MUCH BEEN LIMITED TO THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ARCING NEWD FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO
NORTH TEXAS/RED RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE STORMS MOVING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO HAVE DIED OFF IN THE FACE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES/WEAKER INSTABILITY AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
A SHORTWAVE BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. KAMA 00 UTC SOUNDING
SHOWED A PRETTY STOUT INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. DESPITE THIS...WE
CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SOME
WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD. WE
HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 07 OR 08 UTC. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME OR AREA
SO WE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A CONCERN AT SOME TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
WEST TEXAS...THIS TIME WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT IF
THE FORECAST PANS OUT AS EXPECTED. MODELS PRE-12Z WERE VERY
SKEPTICAL AND DIFFERED GREATLY ON WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION WOULD
OCCUR LATER TODAY. WHILE SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN...MOST MODELS
MINUS THE HRRR HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM
SEEMED TO HAVE AT FIRST GLANCE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AS IT
PICKED UP ON AN AREA OF LIFT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM WHICH STARTED
TO SHOW UP ON WV JUST AFTER 13Z. THE AREA OF LIFT HAS SINCE
ENHANCED FURTHER AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTWARD
PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF RUIDOSO NM. THESE STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS A WESTWARD PROPAGATING
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA. HIGHER RES
MODELS...EVEN THE HRRR TO AN EXTENT...HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MLCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONS SURFACE HEATING
CAN BE ACHIEVED AS TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERED INTO MID DAY. THE MAIN
THREAT...AS IS USUALLY OUT HERE IN THESE PARTS...FROM CONVECTION
WOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DOWNBURSTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A VALID THREAT AS WAS
SEEN YESTERDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND
STABILIZES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION MAKING
WAY FOR HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WHICH WILL GREATLY DECREASE STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE FA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TONIGHT WHICH COULD COOL TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FOR NOW
MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FLEETING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. HEIGHT
RISES WILL LIKELY SQUASH ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY. AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITHIN SURFACE TROUGHING
WELL WEST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CHANCE BUT VERY LITTLE OF
ANY STORMS BEING ABLE TO CROSS STATE LINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS WARM BIAS ON MAX
TEMPERATURES AND WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST BELOW MOS...CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 90 67 94 / 30 20 20 20
TULIA 66 92 69 95 / 30 10 20 10
PLAINVIEW 68 91 70 94 / 20 10 20 0
LEVELLAND 68 93 71 95 / 20 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 72 94 72 97 / 20 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 69 94 70 95 / 30 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 69 94 71 96 / 20 20 20 0
CHILDRESS 73 98 75 101 / 20 10 10 0
SPUR 70 94 73 96 / 20 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 73 98 76 101 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1107 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD. TSTMS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA...AND REDEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY THE REST
OF TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE
RETAINED A SCT MVFR LAYER FROM PREVIOUS FCST. ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...IF STORMS FORM...COVERAGE
SHOULD BE SPARSE. THEREFORE...HAVE OMITTED THAT ELEMENT FROM THIS
FCST CYCLE.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS REST OF TONIGHT AS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS
OCCURRED THIS EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOT
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT
TSTMS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER KGUY OR KDHT WILL
BE IMPACTED SO HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS ELEMENT FROM THIS FCST CYCLE.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING FOR PSBL AMENDMENTS. SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE KEPT A SCT
MVFR DECK FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
TONIGHT AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE SATURATED FROM LAST NIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITH VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A MARKED DECREASE IN MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THAT THROUGHOUT
THE LOW LEVELS. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS KEPT THE AREA FROM
DESTABILIZATION AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS YESTERDAY AND ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAS YIELDED A FAIRLY UNIFORM CUMULUS
FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION IN NEW MEXICO HAS FORMED BUT OVERALL EXPANSIVENESS IS FAR
LESS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP PV
ANALYSIS SHOW ONE WAVE TRAVERSING THE PANHANDLES NOW WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TONIGHT GIVEN TRENDS.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AGAIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BRB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER COMING UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WILL DRIFT EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE
AREA...THERE IS SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE 21.12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT THAT FAVORABLE
FOR FOG FORMATION. IT SUGGESTS IT WILL COME CLOSE TO SATURATION AT
THE SURFACE BUT THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT ABOVE THAT AS THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE 21.17Z RAP IS EVEN LESS ENTHUSED AS IT SHOWS A 3C
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 11Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INTRODUCED
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AND LOWS OF 60 TO 65 BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL COME IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME
OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND MOVE EAST INTO THE
RIDGE AXIS. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND
GEM ON HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THE
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN THE
FLATTEST RIDGE AND THE STRONGEST WAVE COMING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WAVE THE GFS BRINGS THROUGH HAS THE LOOK OF POSSIBLY BEING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GEM IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE SYSTEM
AND KEEPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GEM THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF HAS STARTED TO BACK OFF FROM THE 21.00Z RUN ON THE AMOUNT
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. BASED ON THIS TREND...CAPPED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS GRIDS AT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...WHICH MAINTAINS
PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT SHOWS AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPING TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG OVERNIGHT. THE 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY WEAK IN
THE EVENING BUT COULD INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD
COME ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THEN THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO POTENTIALLY COME THROUGH RIDGE COULD BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
A SFC HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE REGION INTO
THU...ALTHOUGH A FEW MID/LEVEL CLOUDS COULD SPILL ACROSS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON WED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THAT SAID...WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND A LIGHT SFC WIND VALLEY FOG
HAS TO BE CONSIDERED. KLSE BUFKIT RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP
LIGHT WIND FIELD IN EXCESS OF 8 KFT...BUT KEEP A HEALTHY T/TD
SPREAD. NAM12 SIMILAR BUT BRINGS SFC T/TD TOGETHER BY 12Z. EXPECT
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG...BUT HOW WIDESPREAD IN THE MISSISSIPPI IS IN
QUESTION.
03Z T/TD SPREAD AT KLSE WAS 9 F...NOT FAVORABLE FOR 1/4SM FG MAKING
IT TO THE AIRPORT. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT THOUGH. WILL KEEP BCFG AND
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE IF THE FOG THREAT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY.
THU MORNING ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
WHICH COULD IMPACT KLSE. THE SFC HIGH IS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER PERSISTS. LINGERING HIGH
CLOUDS COULD BE A DETERRENT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS AT THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA NEXT WEEK PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS FORECAST COOLER AND
DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR REGION. THANKS TO A MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS A MARINE LAYER AROUND 1800 FEET
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH MANY VALLEY
SPOTS. IN OTHER WORDS...A TYPICAL JULY DAY FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE LACK OF
STRONG INLAND HEAT DUE TO A LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.
SYNOPTICALLY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
BY THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK
TO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH 500 MB HEIGHTS PLUS 850 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE HELPING TO PUSH INLAND HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
AT FIRST AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WORK WEEK. LONGER RANGE
OUTLOOK SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR ALL NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACH 25C.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... MARINE LAYER
STRUGGLING TO GAIN A FOOTHOLD IN THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING AFTER
MAKING AN INITIAL PUSH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. MAJORITY OF SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE STRUGGLING NOT KEEPING UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS...
SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TOWARDS RUC SOLUTION OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSBL BTWN 14-15Z FOR BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE... FORT ORD PROFILER
SHOWING DEPTH OF MARINE LAYER AROUND 1000 FT WITH BASES AT 1000 FT
AND TOPS CLOSE TO 2000 FT. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS MONTEREY BAY AND
SALINAS VALLEY COMMUNITIES ARE UNDER MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT A MID
TO LATE MORNING CLEARING FOR MONTEREY BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REFLECTED BY TEMPO
GROUP THIS MORNING. VFR POSBL THRU MORN AT KSFO. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER RETURNS TONIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THIS MORNING
THROUGH 18-19Z... WITH MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TODAY AROUND
01Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SAN
FRANCISCO BAY WATERS STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE
GRADIENT INCREASES. SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1039 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND REQUIRES NO UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY.
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AND FROM CMI TO JUST SOUTH OF SPI WILL SEE SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB OR APPROX 6000 FEET...WHICH
WOULD BRING US AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THICKEN UP EVEN MORE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXTENDED
SUN-WED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY
AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO
AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE
RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE
RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS DRY, BUT THE NAM CONTINUING TO
TREND THE TRACK JUST TO THE NE AND INTO ILX/S SW. SLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THU.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE
AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. POOL OF
HEAT OVER THE DESERT SW SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE MIDWEST WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 20-23C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
MIXED DOWN, TEMPS AT THE SFC SET TO MAX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, MODELS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLED CONSIDERABLY SHOULD THE
PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE SAT NIGHT-TUES TIME FRAME
MATERIALIZES. PREV DRY RUNS UNDER THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW
ARE LOSING THE DRY FORECAST TO A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SFC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SIMILAR TO THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH THIS SUMMER. WITH A
LACK OF CONTINUITY OR CONSENSUS, SLIGHTS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHALLOW GROUND
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD
AFFECT KPIA...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO
MENTION IN THE TAF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS...AND
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
603 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY.
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AND FROM CMI TO JUST SOUTH OF SPI WILL SEE SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB OR APPROX 6000 FEET...WHICH
WOULD BRING US AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THICKEN UP EVEN MORE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXTENDED
SUN-WED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY
AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO
AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE
RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE
RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS DRY, BUT THE NAM CONTINUING TO
TREND THE TRACK JUST TO THE NE AND INTO ILX/S SW. SLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THU.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE
AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. POOL OF
HEAT OVER THE DESERT SW SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE MIDWEST WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 20-23C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
MIXED DOWN, TEMPS AT THE SFC SET TO MAX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, MODELS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLED CONSIDERABLY SHOULD THE
PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE SAT NIGHT-TUES TIME FRAME
MATERIALIZES. PREV DRY RUNS UNDER THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW
ARE LOSING THE DRY FORECAST TO A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SFC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SIMILAR TO THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH THIS SUMMER. WITH A
LACK OF CONTINUITY OR CONSENSUS, SLIGHTS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHALLOW GROUND
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD
AFFECT KPIA...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO
MENTION IN THE TAF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS...AND
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST
NOTABLE THING WILL BE THE FACT THESE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTER EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US IN A SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND/UNDER 10 MPH. WE
LACK A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE NIL TO VERY
LOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES START TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...WITH VALUES
MOSTLY AROUND THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE NAM SUGGEST VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BUT THIS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 KNOTS. 0-1 KM HELICITY
VALUES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND EUROPEAN.
OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 80-150 M^2/S^2 OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT A TRUE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM TODAY...WE ARE RELYING SOLELY ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH IS
NOT BACK ACROSS KANSAS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE ARE REALLY GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET
RAINFALL TODAY. MANY OF THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS SUGGEST
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE HRRR IS REALLY THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. NMM...ARW...AND THE
NAM4KM ALL HAVE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. I HAVE DECREASED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
IT APPEARS OMEGA WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH INCLUDES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION OR TWO COULD CLEAR THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH GENERALLY 20-
40% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING
AND NEXT TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...LOW VALUES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH VALUES
OF POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD PRESENT ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAY TO DAY...GIVEN THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF ~2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FELT IT PRUDENT
TO GO WITH A MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON MOST
DAYS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 100
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND AROUND 105 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT INDEX WORDING IN THE HWO AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE REALLY TWO CONCERNS
THIS PERIOD. ONE IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND THE OTHER IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SMALL TODAY
BUT LOOK TO BE BEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AROUND 00Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LACK INSTABILITY SHOULD HOLD OFF THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS IN THE TAF
LATER TODAY ONCE TIMING AND COVERAGE IS BETTER UNDERSTOOD. WE
COULD HAVE A CHANGE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
MORE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT HAVE CONDITIONS CHANGING UNTIL
AROUND 09Z TOMORROW WHEN THE CHANCES FOR FOG INCREASE. WE COULD GO
TO AT LEAST MVFR AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW NIGHT WIND SPEEDS WILL GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASE
UNDER A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE INVERSION TOMORROW IS NOT TOO
DEEP/STRONG...SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
AROUND 4 TO 5 HOURS AT MOST BEFORE WE START MIXING OUT. IT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO LOOK TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...GUERRERO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
SKY COVER AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR IMAGERY.
TWO EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
TRIGGERING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY MIGRATE OR
DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCE THAT CONVECTION IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL CROSS THE
BORDER INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED.
HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL MAINTAIN/ADD A LOW POP FOR
THESE AREAS.
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK FOR THE MID/LATE MORNING UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
AND BLENDED OTHER ELEMENTS TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA SLOWLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST
ND. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS WELL...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR HAS ANY ACTIVITY
OUTSIDE OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LATEST
(7UTC) HRRR IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE VALLEY AS IT HAS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...YET CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE HRRR/RAP/WRF/NAM.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING...COVERAGE
AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD PLACEMENT
OF QPF COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH IS
ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ND
ON THURSDAY. ALL MODELS FORECAST AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
BY 18Z WITH SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
ND...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM
SHEAR STARTS OUT AROUND 20-25KTS AT 18Z THU PER GFS/NAM WITH
STRONGER VALUES DISPLACED WEST OF BEST CAPE...EVENTUALLY INCREASING
TO 30-35KTS BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONTANA...BRUSHING WESTERN ND AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC...GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
AND BLENDED OTHER ELEMENTS TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA SLOWLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST
ND. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS WELL...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR HAS ANY ACTIVITY
OUTSIDE OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LATEST
(7UTC) HRRR IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE VALLEY AS IT HAS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...YET CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE HRRR/RAP/WRF/NAM.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING...COVERAGE
AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD PLACEMENT
OF QPF COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH IS
ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ND
ON THURSDAY. ALL MODELS FORECAST AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
BY 18Z WITH SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
ND...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM
SHEAR STARTS OUT AROUND 20-25KTS AT 18Z THU PER GFS/NAM WITH
STRONGER VALUES DISPLACED WEST OF BEST CAPE...EVENTUALLY INCREASING
TO 30-35KTS BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONTANA...BRUSHING WESTERN ND AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC...GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
938 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST. IT
HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS DRASTIC AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. WITH INSTABILITY BEING
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WOULD
EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS THEY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND QPF FORECAST TO FOCUS
HIGHER POPS AND FORECAST RAINFALL ALONG INTERSTATE 40...AND LOWER
THEM SOME IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR. A FEW AREAS OF IFR
AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
SOUTH OF I-44 AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FAIRLY COMMON AS SOME TRAINING OF CELLS HAS BEEN NOTED. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS AREA TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND A FEW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES PROBABLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SW KANSAS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THESE COULD MAKE A
RUN AT NE OKLAHOMA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT DECREASING
TREND HERE AS WELL WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT THROUGH THE
MORNING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH TODAY AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS AGAIN
TONIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY ACROSS KS/MO. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BRUSH FAR NE OKLAHOMA AND
NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
AFTER TONIGHT THE HEAT WILL BE ON ONCE AGAIN AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 105 IN SOME AREAS BY THURSDAY
AND MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS
WORKING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY RESULTING IN SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
753 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL USHER IN COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT A BROKEN LINE OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NOW STRETCHES FROM LONG ISLAND TO CENTRAL VA.
LLVL RIDGING AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT WILL LEAD TO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PRACTICALLY ALL
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...COMPLETE WITH REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR.
THE LONE...SMALL FRUIT FLY IN THE OINTMENT COMES IN THE FORM OF A
WELL-DEFINED/BUT RATHER COMPACT MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KT 300 MB JETLET...THAT WAS FOCUSED OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT 08Z. THIS SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY AND
UVVEL WILL SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY TODAY. SOME BKN-OVC
HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SPRINKLES OR EVEN A BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR NW CWA. LATEST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THIS SPOTTY AND VERY MINOR QPF
POTENTIAL.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL SET UP
RESIDENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PATTERN OVER NOAM SHIFTS FROM
THE UNPLEASANTLY HUMID/WET WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW PW WILL SPELL A GEM OF A DAY
TODAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND NWRLY UPPER FLOW
ACROSS PENN DELIVERS A MORE REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR TO THE
REGION...GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE RECENT 8 WEEKS OF FREQUENTLY
HUMID AND WET WEATHER.
A NW BREEZE...FRESHENING TO 8-12 KTS /WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS/ WILL COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...AND MAX TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST /JUST A
FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN PENN TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES /AND JUST A LIGHT NW BREEZE EARLY
TONIGHT/.
AN EVEN COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP...WITH MINS EARLY THURSDAY RANGING
FROM THE U40S TO L50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND COLD SPOTS THROUGHOUT
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TO THE U50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COOL AIR TEMPS AND WARM WATER TEMPS MAY YIELD SOME PATCHY 2SM
RIVER VALLEY FOG UP NORTH BETWEEN 08-12Z THUR.
ANOTHER SPLENDID MID SUMMER DAY FOR THURSDAY...UNDER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST 1-3
DEG F SHY OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1016-1018 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE PA/OHIO BORDER
TO START THE PERIOD...WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER WITH MAINLY LIGHT WIND...CONTINUED COMFORTABLY LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MAINLY AFTER
00Z SUNDAY...AS LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING SHEAR
DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WENT DRY FOR TUE...AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS SE. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO GENERATE A MID DECK AS IT SLIPS
EASTWARD...WITH BRIEF VFR CIG LIKELY AT KIPT RIGHT AROUND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...FEW CLOUDS TODAY AS WE ENTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER THAT WILL EXTEND INTO
SAT.
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 10
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL A.M. FOG POSS NORTH.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...CHC SHRA/TSTM. MVFR CIGS POSS NW.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
918 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
INLAND WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS AT THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:09 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OF AROUND 2000 FEET IN DEPTH THIS MORNING HAS KEPT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.
WHILE MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN-OFF THROUGH
LATE MORNING...MANY COASTAL AREAS MAY REMAIN UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. NO UPDATED NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS FORECAST
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR REGION. THANKS TO A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE PLUS A MARINE LAYER AROUND
1800 FEET SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH
MANY VALLEY SPOTS. IN OTHER WORDS...A TYPICAL JULY DAY FOR THE SAN
FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
LACK OF STRONG INLAND HEAT DUE TO A LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST
INLAND SPOTS.
SYNOPTICALLY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL
INLAND WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
BY THE WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK
TO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH 500 MB HEIGHTS PLUS 850 MB
TEMPS WILL RISE HELPING TO PUSH INLAND HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
AT FIRST AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WORK WEEK. LONGER RANGE
OUTLOOK SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR ALL NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACH 25C.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... MARINE LAYER
STRUGGLING TO GAIN A FOOTHOLD IN THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING AFTER
MAKING AN INITIAL PUSH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. MAJORITY OF SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE STRUGGLING NOT KEEPING UP WITH SATELLITE TRENDS...
SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TOWARDS RUC SOLUTION OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSBL BTWN 14-15Z FOR BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE... FORT ORD PROFILER
SHOWING DEPTH OF MARINE LAYER AROUND 1000 FT WITH BASES AT 1000 FT
AND TOPS CLOSE TO 2000 FT. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS MONTEREY BAY AND
SALINAS VALLEY COMMUNITIES ARE UNDER MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT A MID
TO LATE MORNING CLEARING FOR MONTEREY BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE REFLECTED BY TEMPO
GROUP THIS MORNING. VFR POSBL THRU MORN AT KSFO. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER RETURNS TONIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THIS MORNING
THROUGH 18-19Z... WITH MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TODAY AROUND
01Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:09 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH MODERATE STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND REQUIRES NO UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY.
HAVE HAD SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AND FROM CMI TO JUST SOUTH OF SPI WILL SEE SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB OR APPROX 6000 FEET...WHICH
WOULD BRING US AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THICKEN UP EVEN MORE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EXTENDED
SUN-WED. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY
AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO
AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MIDWEST GETTING INTO THE
RIDGE WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AS A QUICK IMPULSE RIPPLES OVER THE
RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS DRY, BUT THE NAM CONTINUING TO
TREND THE TRACK JUST TO THE NE AND INTO ILX/S SW. SLIGHTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THU.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH THE
AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST, TEMPS WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. POOL OF
HEAT OVER THE DESERT SW SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON THE MIDWEST WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 20-23C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES.
MIXED DOWN, TEMPS AT THE SFC SET TO MAX INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, MODELS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLED CONSIDERABLY SHOULD THE
PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE SAT NIGHT-TUES TIME FRAME
MATERIALIZES. PREV DRY RUNS UNDER THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW
ARE LOSING THE DRY FORECAST TO A SERIES OF SMALL WAVES AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SFC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SIMILAR TO THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH THIS SUMMER. WITH A
LACK OF CONTINUITY OR CONSENSUS, SLIGHTS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS AT AROUND 4000-5000FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE
AWAY BY SUNSET...LEAVING BEHIND ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES/NEARLY CALM WINDS/AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME MINOR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MINOR DISTURBANCE SEEN OVER SW MO HEADING EAST WITH SOME UPTICK IN
CONVECTION NOTED. HRRR HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH 00Z-03Z...MOVING THE ACTIVITY EAST. LIGHTNING PROGS OFF
THE REFRESH MODEL NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...
MID LEVEL MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ML CAPES MEANS WE WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED. BETTER POPS WILL BE ACROSS SE MO
INTO WRN KY AND SRN TIP OF IL INITIALLY. SHOULD REMAIN DRY EARLY
TONIGHT UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. SUPPOSE A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THERE. OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE...WITH BEST POPS SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
EXPANSION IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY BY THE NAM EVEN UP TOWARD THE
KEVV TRI-STATE AS MOISTURE INCREASES THAT DIRECTION. WILL GUIDE
POPS INTO THAT AREA.
THURSDAY...BEST POPS WILL SHIFT SE WITH TIME COINCIDENT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND BEST MOISTURE...AND AS THE MID
TROP FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE NW. THE VEERING WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRYING INCREASING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE
DO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SE MO WHERE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO EXIST. THAT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST 1/2 OF FRIDAY BEFORE HEADING SSE. FRIDAY
NIGHT DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. WE COULD SEE AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF MISSOURI WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS. WILL WAIT FOR A MORE CONSISTENT
SIGNAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF MOS. TRENDED AWAY FROM
GFS MOS WHEN IT WAS AT ITS WARMEST ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IT HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL AS OF LATE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE RECENT HEAT
EVENT (OPPRESSIVE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS/HIGH DEW POINT AIR)
IN WHICH AMBIENT TEMPS SEEMED TO REACH A LIMIT...JUST BELOW WHAT
GUIDANCE WOULD PROJECT FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THOUGH THE FINER DETAILS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...THE
GENERAL SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE PAH FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE SRN STATES. TWO MAIN NRN STREAM SHRTWVS ARE PROGGED BY THE
MED RANGE MODELS TO MOVE BY TO THE NORTH...ONE DURING THE WEEKEND...
AND ONE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EACH SHOULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A NORTH-SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE IN FAR WRN SECTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...A LINGERING WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...ENCOURAGING MORE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS SETUP...AFTERNOON TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST VS. THE
EAST ESPECIALLY SAT. THUS...HEAT INDICES COULD SPIKE TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
100 AND 105 SHOULD BE MORE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AFTERWARDS.
THE MED RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF NRN STREAM
SHRTWV ENERGY ALOFT IN THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE DESTABILIZING
EFFECT OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WRN KY HAVING THE
LEAST POP. IF A SEWD-MOVING SFC BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...IT MAY BECOME UNRECOGNIZABLE. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS A
PERSISTENT SRLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND.
IT APPEARS A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY MAY SET UP IN THE FAR WEST...WITH ANOTHER
(POSSIBLY STRONGER) SEWD-MOVING SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHING. THIS
SHOULD MEAN SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP
UNTIL WED...WHEN THE PARENT SHRTWV WILL BE CLOSER TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY THEN. RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT
WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR REGION.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN ANY ONE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY. LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S WILL PREVAIL...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE TIME...YIELDING THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT INDICES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
AREA IS ESSENTIALLY PRECIP FREE. CU/MID CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED WITH
LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER KEVV TRI-STATE. NEXT WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER SW MO WILL HEAD EAST ACCOMPANIED BY CHC SHRA
MAINLY SE MO / WRN KY...SRN TIP OF IL LATE DAY / EARLY EVENING.
COULD BE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS. OVERNIGHT SW OF PERRYVILLE
MO...GREENVILLE KY LINE...MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MID CLOUDS EXPECTED NE OF THERE INCLUDING
KEVV / KOWB. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. FUTURE
UPDATES CAN ADD UPON INCREASED CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...CN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DEEPER INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE NOTED WHILE TO
THE SOUTH MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ARE COMMON. THE HIGH ALSO HELPED TO
BREAK UP AND LIFT THE LOWER STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING. ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR...A PAIR OF MCVS ARE MOVING EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE LEADING ONE OF THESE IS JUST
ABOUT TO PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY NEAR
THE TENNESSEE BORDER. OTHERWISE...IT IS A PLEASANT ENOUGH DAY OUT
THERE UNDER PARTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR
80 NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE
THAT FLAT FLOW CURRENTLY ABOVE KENTUCKY WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TRANSITION...WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH KENTUCKY STARTING WITH THE MCVS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SMALL
SCALE NATURE OF THESE FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE MINOR MID LEVEL WAVES PASS BY. THE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOULD KEEP THE FOG A BIT MORE
LIMITED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT
FOR ANYTHING BECOMING ORGANIZED OR TOO STRONG. THIS LEADS TO A
BETTER CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVES
PULL OUT OF KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR A
LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WINDS INTO
TONIGHT AND THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON
TERRAIN DIFFERENCES AND THE EXPECTATION OF RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE
DRIER MET MOS THAN THE MAV TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE WAS IN LINE
WITH THE LOW POP CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER TEXAS AND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM AND NOT SO HUMID FORECAST THE RESULT. A SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE US/CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
WHILE GRADUALLY WASHING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH COVERAGE LIKELY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE
MORNING FOG AND ALSO LIFT THE LOWER CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A
SFC WAVE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR A STRAY STORM TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AND CB IN THE
SOUTHERN TAFS ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS FOR THIS TIME. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL
SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1214 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST
NOTABLE THING WILL BE THE FACT THESE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
TODAY...BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTER EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US IN A SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND/UNDER 10 MPH. WE
LACK A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE NIL TO VERY
LOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES START TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...WITH VALUES
MOSTLY AROUND THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE NAM SUGGEST VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BUT THIS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 KNOTS. 0-1 KM HELICITY
VALUES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND EUROPEAN.
OVERALL...THESE VALUES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 80-150 M^2/S^2 OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT A TRUE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM TODAY...WE ARE RELYING SOLELY ON ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH IS
NOT BACK ACROSS KANSAS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE ARE REALLY GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET
RAINFALL TODAY. MANY OF THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS SUGGEST
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE HRRR IS REALLY THE
MOST OPTIMISTIC FOR RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. NMM...ARW...AND THE
NAM4KM ALL HAVE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. I HAVE DECREASED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
IT APPEARS OMEGA WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH INCLUDES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION OR TWO COULD CLEAR THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH GENERALLY 20-
40% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING
AND NEXT TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...LOW VALUES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH VALUES
OF POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD PRESENT ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAY TO DAY...GIVEN THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF ~2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FELT IT PRUDENT
TO GO WITH A MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON MOST
DAYS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL HELP PROMOTE HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 100
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND AROUND 105 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT INDEX WORDING IN THE HWO AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS ON REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS BUT BETTER CHCS FOR THIS
APPEARS EAST OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY
VARIABLE DUE TO CONVECTION AROUND AND CIGS RANGE FROM NEAR IFR TO
VFR. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF VSBY IN BR AND A LOWER CIG
TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
SKY COVER AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR IMAGERY.
TWO EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
TRIGGERING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY MIGRATE OR
DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCE THAT CONVECTION IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL CROSS THE
BORDER INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED.
HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO WILL MAINTAIN/ADD A LOW POP FOR
THESE AREAS.
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK FOR THE MID/LATE MORNING UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
AND BLENDED OTHER ELEMENTS TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA SLOWLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST
ND. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS WELL...THOUGH CURRENT RADAR HAS ANY ACTIVITY
OUTSIDE OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LATEST
(7UTC) HRRR IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE VALLEY AS IT HAS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOGAN...MCINTOSH...LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...YET CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE HRRR/RAP/WRF/NAM.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AND WE BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM TIMING...COVERAGE
AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD PLACEMENT
OF QPF COMPARED TO NAM/ECMWF/SREF. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH IS
ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWING
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ND
ON THURSDAY. ALL MODELS FORECAST AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND
BY 18Z WITH SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
ND...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM
SHEAR STARTS OUT AROUND 20-25KTS AT 18Z THU PER GFS/NAM WITH
STRONGER VALUES DISPLACED WEST OF BEST CAPE...EVENTUALLY INCREASING
TO 30-35KTS BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONTANA...BRUSHING WESTERN ND AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC...GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT BVO...WITH OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT
FYV/XNA/ROG AS WELL. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE
OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING IMPACTING THE NW AR TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST. IT
HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS DRASTIC AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. WITH INSTABILITY BEING
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WOULD
EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS THEY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND QPF FORECAST TO FOCUS
HIGHER POPS AND FORECAST RAINFALL ALONG INTERSTATE 40...AND LOWER
THEM SOME IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR. A FEW AREAS OF IFR
AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
SOUTH OF I-44 AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FAIRLY COMMON AS SOME TRAINING OF CELLS HAS BEEN NOTED. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS AREA TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND A FEW AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES PROBABLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SW KANSAS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THESE COULD MAKE A
RUN AT NE OKLAHOMA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT DECREASING
TREND HERE AS WELL WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT THROUGH THE
MORNING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH TODAY AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS AGAIN
TONIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOSTLY ACROSS KS/MO. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BRUSH FAR NE OKLAHOMA AND
NW ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
AFTER TONIGHT THE HEAT WILL BE ON ONCE AGAIN AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 105 IN SOME AREAS BY THURSDAY
AND MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND. HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS
WORKING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY RESULTING IN SLIM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CWA. -RA WILL AFFECT BNA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CSV WILL LIKELY SEE SOME -RA AS WELL
THIS AFTERNOON. CKV COULD ESCAPE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON DRY
ALTHOUGH HRRR IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD CKV THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN MID LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF LATER RAIN SO ADDRESSED IT WITH
VCSH. BR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE PARTICULARLY AT CSV TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
LIGHT SW WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/
UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH
NASHVILLE METRO. AN MCV CAN BE NOTED ON RADAR AS WELL AS THE VIS
SATELLITE CENTERED OVER HICKMAN COUNTY. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. BUMPED UP POPS EAST OF NASHVILLE. ACTIVITY IN MEG`S CWA
IS ON THE DOWNSWING. AFTER CURRENT ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SPC 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAD THE SW
THIRD OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUST. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY THAT CAN OCCUR BUT
IF A STRONG STORM DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE AL BORDER
IN VICINITY OF WEAK QUASI STATIONARY FRONT.
REAGAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 72 86 71 91 / 50 60 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 70 85 70 90 / 40 60 20 20
CROSSVILLE 68 80 67 84 / 30 60 20 10
COLUMBIA 71 88 70 91 / 40 60 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 71 88 71 92 / 30 60 40 30
WAVERLY 70 86 70 90 / 50 60 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITHIN THE RIDGE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WARM FRONT. RADAR
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE HI-RES HRRR RUNS ARE
FAIRLY ON POINT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THEREFORE WILL PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CWA WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD WANE QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN
GOES DOWN.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS THE CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. DESPITE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING...THE NWP MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE MEMBERS AND FROM RUN TO RUN WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS RISING TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
500 MB ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
WESTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS A TAD BIT FASTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATED 1500 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE. WIND SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS NOTED ON THE MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN IS WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIALS LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR ALOFT LEAVES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS
WOULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHING
THE AREA...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRB TO AUW AFTER 20 OR 21 UTC THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SPOTTY AND OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE...IT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVLOPING ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AFTER 09Z.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF BR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOX
VALLEY AND EASTCENTRAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SCT-BKN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
231 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR DEPICTING LAST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON WATER
VAPOR OVER MOST OF COLORADO IS INCHING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER. SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON AREA RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE
WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN RANGES TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
SURFACE BASED CAPE OFF THE MESOANALYST PAGE SHOWING RIGHT AROUND
500 J/KG WHERE THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING...SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE TSTMS FROM THESE. BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING 1500-2500 J/KG AT 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE NEAR 60 FOR
ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THUNDERSTORM
EVOLUTION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OUT THAT WAY.
LATEST HRRR FORECAST RADAR SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAKING IT INTO THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 00Z. CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS
FOR THIS EVENING OUT THAT WAY. SHEAR OUT THAT WAY ALMOST
NONEXISTENT...WITH LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...SO THINK THE MORE
PROMINENT HAZARD WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN. ATTENTION TURNS TO ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS FORECASTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA...TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THURSDAY. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE WIND PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AS A
RESULT...WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT ACROSS CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES. GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL MIX UP TO AT LEAST 580MBS OUT THAT WAY.
NAM WINDS UP AROUND THAT LEVEL FORECAST AT 35-40KTS...SO CARBON
AND ALBANY COUNTIES COULD BE SEEING WINDS GUSTING TO 40MPH OR
MORE. FORTUNATELY...FUELS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED AS NOT READY
FOR MOST FIRE ZONES...SO RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS EASE SOME FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA CANADA AND EASTWARD. LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +16C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DID GO OVER GUIDANCE ON HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS WILL
MEANDER OVER THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CWA WILL
RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WITH WARM AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERALL...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES SHOULD ROTATE OVER THE HIGH
AND MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION TO PARTS OF THE CWA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN CUT
OFF FOR THE MOST PART. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHOULD DRIVE
A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS LOWERING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR EXPECTED OVERALL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE WDLY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SE WY MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
A DRIER AND MORE WINDY PERIOD AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA THURSDAY WILL AID IN INCREASING
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
THESE WINDS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 PERCENT BOTH
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1125 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
LATEST HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING OUT INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED OVERHEAD
YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO 500 MB FLOW THERE IS STILL GOOD
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING PEAK
HEATING AND PW VALUES ARE 0.75 TO 1 INCH. THUS...EXPECTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. CAPE IS RATHER MEAGER...SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION STRUGGLING AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND 700 MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO 14C.
MORE WARMING WITH OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING.
PW VALUES DROP TO BELOW 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE MOST NOTABLY TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
AFTN OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. THE
BREEZY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE. FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 304 CURRENTLY HAS FUELS READY...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS ZONE FOR A POTENTIAL RED FLAG HIGHLIGHT. RH VALUES
ARE MARGINAL RIGHT NOW THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
THURSDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 17C. BY FRIDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING. THE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN SOME OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE SCARCE DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE IT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT PER THE GFS.
COMPROMISED WITH 15 TO 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHADRON
TO KIMBALL LINE SUNDAY EVENING. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO 95. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...COOLING
SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT TUESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
VFR EXPECTED OVERALL OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE WDLY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SE WY MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. BRIEF PDS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER ACTIVITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO
20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 TO 30
MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SOME BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1041 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
LATEST HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVING OUT INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED OVERHEAD
YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 700 TO 500 MB FLOW THERE IS STILL GOOD
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING PEAK
HEATING AND PW VALUES ARE 0.75 TO 1 INCH. THUS...EXPECTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. CAPE IS RATHER MEAGER...SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION STRUGGLING AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND 700 MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO 14C.
MORE WARMING WITH OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING.
PW VALUES DROP TO BELOW 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE MOST NOTABLY TO THE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
AFTN OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. THE
BREEZY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE. FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 304 CURRENTLY HAS FUELS READY...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS ZONE FOR A POTENTIAL RED FLAG HIGHLIGHT. RH VALUES
ARE MARGINAL RIGHT NOW THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
THURSDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 17C. BY FRIDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING. THE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN SOME OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE SCARCE DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE IT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT PER THE GFS.
COMPROMISED WITH 15 TO 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHADRON
TO KIMBALL LINE SUNDAY EVENING. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO 95. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...COOLING
SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT TUESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CYS TO
SNY ROUTE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST HRRR/SREF. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE
RWL TO CYS ROUTE. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO
20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 TO 30
MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SOME BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...ZF