Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/19/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

127 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING TODAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES
WILL BRING CLOUDS...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SOME REMNANT
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY.
GRADUALLY DRIER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER STRATUS WAS A BIT SHALLOWER THIS MORNING...AS EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS COVERING THE COAST AND WESTERN
VALLEYS...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING SHOWED AN 8 DEG C INVERSION AT AROUND 2300 FEET MSL...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE A 3-7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.

DOLORES IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND LOCATED 420 MILES WEST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA...IT WILL STEER DOLORES TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY REACHING A POINT 200-300
MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES A
REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INCREASING MOISTURE...SOME FROM
DOLORES AND SOME FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
PLENTIFUL CLOUDS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS TO THE DESERTS. GFS...NAM AND WRF SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUING NEAR THOSE VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY. STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW ELEVATED CAPE...WHICH INDICATES THAT THERE IS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE SMALL INCREASES IN MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH DESERTS. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTION SPARKING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON OVER IMPERIAL COUNTY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SPILLING
INTO OUR LOWER DESERTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW
POOR THE 19Z HRRR INITIALIZED. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS FOR THAT
TIME-PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE SHOWN PREVIOUSLY. NONE OF THE HIGH-RES
MODELS SHOW MUCH OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING THAT TIME.
THUS...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE NOT
GREAT...BUT WILL KEEP IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IT MAY START OUT
AS MOSTLY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. THEN...WE START TO SEE THE GOOD SURGE
OF MOISTURE COMING IN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAJORITY
OF MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE 700-300 MB LAYER...AND SOME ENHANCED
MOISTURE REACHING DOWN TO 850 MB. AT THAT TIME...A WEAK WAVE MAY
MOVE OVER THE AREA TO HELP TRIGGER SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION.
ALSO...IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW FOR
DAY-TIME HEATING INDUCED INSTABILITY...THAT WOULD ALSO HELP
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WRF
SHOWS THE WINDS ALOFT BEING SOMEWHAT WEAK...WHICH MEANS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS INDICATES STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
FASTER MOVING STORMS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NAM...WRF AND CANSAC WRF SHOW SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE MOISTURE ALSO REACHES THE SURFACE BY THIS TIME ACCORDING
TO MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS. GOING TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
BETTER CLEARING OF CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE. THIS WOULD HELP ENHANCE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING. WINDS ALOFT OF 15-20 KT SHOULD KEEP STORMS MOVING
QUICKLY ENOUGH FOR THERE NOT TO BE A BIG FLASH FLOOD THREAT...WITH
THE FRESH MOUNTAIN BURN SCARS BEING OF BIGGEST CONCERN. FOR
MONDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO PRODUCE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE CLOSENESS OF THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLORES
COULD CREATE AN OFFSHORE FLOW SCENARIO WHICH COULD HELP TO HEAT UP
THE AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS...IN ADDITION TO SURFACE
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...WILL RESULT IN HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...AND MONDAY AS WELL. FINALLY...ALL THE MOISTURE IN THE MID-
TO-HIGH LEVELS MAY INHIBIT NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER LOW
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION...WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AT BEST.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE GETS NUDGED EAST BY A TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO RETURN FOR THE
COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS.

.AVIATION...
172030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES FROM 1500-1800 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500
FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST/VALLEYS TONIGHT. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL HELP
MAKE THE LOW CLOUDS MORE PATCHY. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST IS MODERATE
TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL
CREATE MOSTLY MDT UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS...MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.MARINE...
130 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING
AND ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.BEACHES...
130 PM...A 5 FT/11 SEC SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES
WILL REACH PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ELEVATED SURF OF 5 TO 7 FT...WITH ISOLATED
SETS TO 8 FT...WILL BE LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE
COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AT THE BEACHES. LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

922 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST MODELS AND OBS. EAST FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER ON THE SIERRA
CREST AND SLIDE MTN THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. WITH WEST
FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE INSIDE SLIDER WE SHOULD SEE WEST
WINDS EARLIER TODAY. AS A RESULT, IT IS DOUBTFUL CONVECTION WILL
FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST UNLESS IT IS BY 1 PM. HAVE PUSHED THE
THREAT FURTHER EAST FROM THE CARSON RANGE INTO THE SIERRA FRONT
AND FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR TO LEE VINING. HRRR SHOWS
THIS IDEA AND BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE.
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AS THEY APPEAR ON TRACK
AT THIS TIME. WALLMANN

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO TONIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER AND WETTER
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

THERE WERE A FEW SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXISTING FORECAST
CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA MAINLY AROUND
THE CREST FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY. NAM AND
HRRR HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL BEFORE WESTERLIES KICK CONVERGENCE
INTO THE SIERRA FRONT. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM
PLACEMENT WERE ONLY SMALL NUDGES BASED ON UPDATED GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. GFS AND NAM ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE
EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. TROUGHING LINGERS INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES INCLUDING LAKE
TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE. SOME BRIEF AND VERY ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE MET ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT.
HOWEVER, WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC SINCE FUELS ARE NOT EXTREMELY DRY
FOR NOW AND THE WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS IS VERY SMALL. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 TODAY IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND 80 FOR
THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES DIP A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW; BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S AND
MID/UPPER 70S RESPECTIVELY. BOYD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST CALLS FOR DOLORES TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO BY MONDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS CAPTURE THIS TRACK FAIRLY WELL BUT THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHEN AND HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE FROM DOLORES
WILL REACH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FOR MONDAY THEY
ALSO DIFFER ON WHETHER A LOW FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DROP OVER
THE GREAT BASIN, OR INSTEAD A LOW FROM THE SOUTH COULD DEVELOP AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA INTO WESTERN NV.
WHILE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN HASN`T COME INTO FOCUS YET,
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTH OF I-80
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
I-80.

FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY, A NEW TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST
U.S. THE CURRENT MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE SIERRA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS, THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. JCM

AVIATION...

AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TODAY, WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL GUST TO UP TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH,
BREEZY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS MAY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCE IS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH AND
STARTING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ZEPHYR WINDS TO BE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. EXPECT TURBULENCE AND GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. JCM

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

631 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY FOR POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
BASED ON OBS AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL RUNS...WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE 04Z
TO 10Z TIME RANGE. LOOKS LIKE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AND AREAS NORTH OF HGWY 160...ESPECIALLY THE NRN
I-25 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE RANGE OVER EL
PASO COUNTY. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY SUN MORNING...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A DAY OF ACTIVE WX ON SUNDAY. ROSE

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A WET DAY LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

TWO DISTURBANCES OF NOTE...THE FIRST WAS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF COLORADO. A BROAD LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
NNE-SSW WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE. THE 2ND DISTURBANCE WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIF/LAS VEGAS
REGION. QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 2ND
DISTURBANCE.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

COULD SEE 2 MCS`S DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST
WILL BE OVER NE CO AND THE 2ND COULD BE FARTHER SOUTH OVER SE
COLORADO. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING IS LIFTING OFF NORTHEAST TOWARDS NE
CO...THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER SE COLO. NEW 18Z NAM IS
CATCHING ON TO THIS POSSIBILITY. HRRR ALSO SHOWS MODEST TO STRONGER
CONVECTION EXTENDING N-S ALONG THE HI PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. 12
GFS WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING OVER THE HI PLAINS ADJ TO COLO
LATER THIS EVENING. ATTM...I HAVE HI ISOLD POPS ALONG MOST OF THE I-
25 CORRIDOR BECOMING SCTD POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATER
THIS EVENING.

PRECIP WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALL AREAS
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION...AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
MOST AREAS.

WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EL PASO AND THE FAR E PLAINS.

TOMORROW...

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY LOW CIGS GIVEN THE WIND
FLOW...BUT IF THE MCS`S BECOME QUITE STRONG THEN SOME LOW STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW.

TOMORROW THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH POPS MOVING OVER THE
REGION...AND GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCE OVER THE CALIF
REGION...THESE VALUES ARE WARRANTED. PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP RATHER
EARLY IN THE MTNS AND MOVE EASTWARD W/TIME. I PAINTED HIGH
SCTD/LIKELY POPS OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD. FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE HI TRRN COULD OCCUR...BUT WILL DEFER TO LATER
SHIFTS TO ISSUE ANY HILITES.

FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE BLOWS UP CONVECTION OVER THE
HI PLAINS TOMORROW...THEY ARE HAVING A PROBLEM WITH LOCATION. EC HAS
THE MCS BLOWING UP RELATIVELY EARLY OVER EAST CENTRAL CO...THE NAM
APPEARS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP A COUPLE OF MCS`S OVER THE HI PLAINS
WHILE THE GFS IS OVER NE COLORADO. WPC HAS THE BULLSEYE OVER EC
COLO. FOR NOW PAINTED SCTD POPS OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE PAINTED MDT RAIN IN THE
NDFD.

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED WEATHER TREND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE PATTERN ACTIVE THROUGH TUE.
FIRST...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MT AND WY SUN EVE...PUSHING A
FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS ON MON. THE
SECOND FEATURE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON MON AND COLORADO ON TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTN AND EVE
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED ACTIVITY
INTO THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE MTS AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
PLAINS...CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE
HOURS. THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...WITH 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 70S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE
HOURS...SO THERE WILL BE THE HEIGHTENED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FOR
AREA BURN SCARS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS STARTING WED AND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REACHES BACK ACROSS NM AND AZ...AND
ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH STARTS TO DIG DOWN OVER THE PAC NW.
WED LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN...SO PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WED AS TEMPS START TO GRADUALLY
WARM. MODELS INDICATE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TAP WILL BE SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH OF CO THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH JUST ISOLATED DIURNAL
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FORECAST. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX READINGS IN THE 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND 80S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

ISOLD TO SCT STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE CO. STORMS PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES...BUT COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 04-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK OF
SVR WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN COUNTIES. ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

541 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A WET DAY LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PRECIP WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALL AREAS
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION...AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
MOST AREAS.

WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EL PASO AND THE FAR E PLAINS.

TOMORROW...

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED WEATHER TREND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1031 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKING HERE AND THERE TO THE GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST NWP. LATEST HRRR RUN IS A BIT MORE
GENEROUS WITH THE CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WSW TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
STAY ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT HIGH BASED STORMS THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS ARE INVERTED-V TYPE WHICH
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WINDS FM ANY SHOWER/TSTM. OVER THE FAR
NERN CORNER A WK CONVERGENCE ZN MAY DVLP BY EARLY AFTN WHICH
COMBINED WITH HIGHER CAPE VALUES COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM.
AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES SO
READINGS ACROSS NERN CO WILL BE IN THE 90S THIS AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT A WK FNTL BNDRY WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH MAY BE FOLLOWED BY SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS
SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

THE WEEKEND WILL START WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN THE
PREVIOUS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S
BY SUNDAY. THE REASON IS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO NE COLORADO
IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THEN A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL KEEP MODERATE WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SLOWLY RE-ENERGIZE THE FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO COLORADO THAT WILL HELP TO INCREASE PW VALUES AND
CONVECTION. SATURDAY WILL SEE AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED ON THE PLAINS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE AND INTRODUCE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO INCREASED MID LEVEL STABILITY. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION TEMP
CAN BE REACHED CAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 40S. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED PW VALUES
ABOVE 1 INCH COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
PLAINS.

FOR THE NEXT WEEK PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS CREATING WSW FLOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE WEEK WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

18Z TAFS WON`T DIFFER MUCH FROM 12Z ONES. WITH LACK OF SUBSIDENCE
TODAY AREA TERMINALS STAND A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING VCTS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...ET

FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ULJ WILL

REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY SO LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED

DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES...THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE IMPULSES OF ENERGY TO KEEP A STORMY PERIOD IN PLACE. NO
DRY SPELL IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 UNTIL AROUND
10Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS AFTER
18Z AND LINGER THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO THE VCNTY
OF KTEX. ALL OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AFTER
18Z AND PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ200-202.

UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1032 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. HOT AND STICKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LAST OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. POP FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT ACCOUNTS FOR THESE SHRAS...AND
IS DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS MOST COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT INCLUDES BERKSHIRE...SOUTHERN CAP
DISTRICT...SCHOHARIE AND POINTS SOUTH.

AFTER REVIEWING LATEST HRRR AND GFS...ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF POPS
FOR HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUR REGION SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE SOURCES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT LAKES AND THREATEN TO TRACK
THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY WITH
A BIT OF A POTENTIAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND HIGH DEW POINTS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 100 IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL
BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY
THAT WOULD TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY EVENING...OR LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL A LITTLE AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY.

SO...HIGHS SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND IT COULD BE
THE FIRST DAY TO HIT 90 IN ALBANY THIS YEAR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN COVERAGE SUNDAY
EVENING. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND WHETHER AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THE MODE AND CHARACTER TO THE
CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TODAY INTO
SUNDAY SHOULD GIVE US CLUES AS TO THE POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD AFFECT OUR AREA. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAX
AT H3 OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AT 00Z MONDAY. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE WITH 30 TO 50 KTS AT 00Z MONDAY.
ALSO SBCAPES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH 2000-4000 J/KG.

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOME DRYING AT LOW LEVELS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS A LITTLE. HIGHS MONDAY WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT AGAIN...LOWER DEW POINTS WITH A BIT
OF A DRYER AIRMASS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS FA WILL BE
UNDER SOME WEAK RIDGING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY INTERESTING DAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING
AND MOVES INTO THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL GO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN A LARGE CLOSED MID/UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCUR FROM SOME DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ANY SMALLER SCALE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE
CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...ONLY SLIGHT CHC...AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN
VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT ONLY REACH THE LOWER
60S. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S COULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA.

BY SATURDAY...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THAT THE FLOW
FLATTENS OUT SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
WARM ADVECTION TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR
MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
AREAS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED.

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SINCE 00Z UPDATE...RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED AT KPSF AND KPOU. KPSF
HAS GONE TO IFR AND WILL LIKELY STAY THERE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. KPOU PICKED UP SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL THIS EVENING...SO
WOULD EXPECT KPOU TO GO TO IFR AS WELL. FOR THE MOMENT HAVE NOT
AMENDED THE TAF...BUT EXPECT WILL NEED TO DO SO.

NO TAF CHANGES AT KALB AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. HOT AND STICKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT...DROP
TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
SUNDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY HOLD
STEADY...ANY SMALLER BASINS THAT SEE REPEATED BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL RISES...AND FLOODING OF URBAN OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE IN THE MID SUMMER DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE NOT HIT 90 DEGREES AT ANY OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS THIS YEAR.

HERE ARE THE DATES OF THE LAST 90+ DEGREE DAY:

ALBANY NY: JULY 23, 2014
GLENS FALLS NY: JULY 23, 2014
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: SEPTEMBER 6, 2014
BENNINGTON VT: SEPTEMBER 11, 2013
PITTSFIELD MA: SEPTEMBER 11, 2013

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

152 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS A GIVEN SITE PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS MOVING
ACROSS A SITE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FAVORS THE EAST
COAST SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT PICKING UP FROM THE SE ALONG EAST COAST
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW WITH A SWLY C-BRZ AT APF BY
LATE MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GULF UNDERNEATH
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FUELING CONVECTION ACROSS THAT REGION AT THIS TIME. 12Z SNDG PARAMETERS
REVEAL MID LEVELS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.2 C/KM WITH A VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
THERMAL PROFILE BELOW 650 MB OR SO. MICROBURST INDICES INDICATE
ONLY MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WITH EVEN LESS FOR HAIL. PWAT
VALUES HAVE FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS PER
BLENDED AMSU/SSMI/GPSMET SATELLITE PRODUCT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
COLUMN. ON THE OTHER HAND, PLENTY OF HEATING TODAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY YET BECAUSE OF UNIMPRESSIVE THERMAL PROFILES MODIFIED
SOUNDING STILL YIELDED 2700 J/KG CAPE. ALL IN ALL THIS MEANS
MOSTLY GARDEN VARIETY STORMS TODAY WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MAY BE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BETWEEN HRRR AND TWO OTHER LOCAL
CONFIGURATIONS STILL INDICATE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE INTERIOR AND EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH BEST CHANCES
UP THE EAST COAST TOWARDS WEST PALM BEACH. THERE IS STILL A LESSER
CHANCE FOR THE WEST COAST FROM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
PROPAGATING SOUTH AND/OR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
IMPACTING NAPLES AREA ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.

FORECAST GRIDS ARE BEING AMENDED ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH HWO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO
CONVECTION EXPECTED AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT AROUND THE 16-17Z TIME FRAME THE EAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA
TODAY WITH ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS OR EVEN
TEMPO/PROB30 AFTER 16Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF ...ON-SET OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE AROUND 15-17Z BUT
ON-SET OF CONVECTION COULD BE ANYTIME AFTER 15Z PARTICULARLY FROM
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST PROPAGATING SOUTH OR FROM DIURNAL
CONVECTION INLAND IMPACTING THE SITE ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.
CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO WIND DOWN BY THE EVENING. STRONGER
CONVECTION TODAY FAVORS THE EAST COAST SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NORTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
RESULTING IN A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR MID
JULY...WITH PW IN THE 1.75-2.00 RANGE. BROAD SCALE CONVERGENCE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY ALONG WITH MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AND WITH HEALTHY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE,
AM EXPECTING THE TRANQUIL MORNING TO TURN TO A STORMY AFTERNOON
FOR MANY LOCALES. A FEW TSTORMS COULD EVEN DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

HIGH RES MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE FLOW PATTERN.

HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AND INTO THE INTERIOR WITH IMPACTS BEING ISOLATED
STREET FLOODING IN TYPICAL (ALTHOUGH NOT THIS YEAR) SOUTH FL
RAINY SEASON STYLE. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SE SURFACE WIND WHICH WILL FOCUS
TSTORMS FURTHER INLAND. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAVY MODEL SHOWS THIS TO BE A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL)...MOVING IN SATURDAY THEN DEPARTING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO REDUCE TSTORM COVERAGE A TAD...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES OF
THE SAL.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE LAKE
REGION AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL FL EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING
SOUTH AGAIN LATE WEEK. A TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL WITH STEERING WINDS FAVORING A FOCUS OF TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.

/GREGORIA

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO
CONVECTION EXPECTED AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT AROUND THE 16-17Z TIME FRAME
THE EAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PENINSULA TODAY WITH ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT
16Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...ONSET OF
SEA BREEZE COULD BE AROUND 14-16Z BUT ONSET OF CONVECTION STARTING
LATER AROUND 20Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. /BD

MARINE...
A PREVAILING WIND FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LOW SEAS.
PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 91 77 / 60 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 79 / 50 40 50 20
MIAMI 91 78 91 79 / 50 30 50 10
NAPLES 89 77 90 77 / 40 30 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...52/PS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GULF UNDERNEATH
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FUELING CONVECTION ACROSS THAT REGION AT THIS TIME. 12Z SNDG PARAMETERS
REVEAL MID LEVELS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.2 C/KM WITH A VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
THERMAL PROFILE BELOW 650 MB OR SO. MICROBURST INDICES INDICATE
ONLY MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WITH EVEN LESS FOR HAIL. PWAT
VALUES HAVE FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS PER
BLENDED AMSU/SSMI/GPSMET SATELLITE PRODUCT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
COLUMN. ON THE OTHER HAND, PLENTY OF HEATING TODAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY YET BECAUSE OF UNIMPRESSIVE THERMAL PROFILES MODIFIED
SOUNDING STILL YIELDED 2700 J/KG CAPE. ALL IN ALL THIS MEANS
MOSTLY GARDEN VARIETY STORMS TODAY WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MAY BE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

FORECAST GRIDS ARE BEING AMENDED ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH HWO.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

/GREGORIA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 91 77 / 60 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 79 / 50 40 50 20
MIAMI 91 78 91 79 / 50 30 50 10
NAPLES 89 77 90 77 / 50 30 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1016 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
524 PM CDT

MAIN COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...HOWEVER SOME STRONGER
STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COOK/DUPAGE/WILL COUNTIES AND STRETCHING EAST INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. A BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS KANE/DUPAGE/SOUTHERN
COOK COUNTIES...WITH CONSIDERABLE HELICITY FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SOUTHERLY WITH A
CONSIDERABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS FEEDING DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR
70S NORTHEAST. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE NOT GROWING VERTICALLY...HOWEVER IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THIS CUMULUS LAYER
THAT ADDITIONAL GROWTH MAY OCCUR.

GIVEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN THIS AREA AND
STRETCHING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT RAPID
GROWTH COULD OCCUR AND WITH THE ENHANCED HELICITY THE UPDRAFTS
COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO. FURTHER WEST WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO THE WEST...WHICH HAS DIMINISHED THE TOR THREAT.
SUBSIDENCE WAS BEING NOTED AS DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
LOWER 70S TO A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR WESTCENTRAL IL.

BEACHLER

.SHORT TERM...
227 PM CDT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA DUE TO
CONCERNS ABOUT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER WISCONSIN MCS HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CWA AND IS BEGINNING TO STALL OUT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THE LAKE HAS AUGMENTED THE
BOUNDARY AND PROVIDED SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ACCELERATION
ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
EVEN OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND PROBABLY RETREAT NORTH DURING THE
DAY AS SUNSHINE ALLOWS FOR STRONG HEATING/MIXING AND A MODEST
SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS. DESPITE THE INITIALLY COOLER AIR NEAR THE
LAKE...STILL FEEL THERE IS A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL/RETREAT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR A HOT/HUMID
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 OVER EVEN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
SO NOT PLANNING TO CHANGE HEAT ADVISORY ANY THIS MORNING. MAY
BROADEN THE RANGE OF HEAT INDICES TO 100 TO 110 AS CLOUDS FROM
IA/MO MCS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY WESTERN
CWA.

AMPLE SUNSHINE IN ADVANCE OF ANY CLOUDINESS FROM MO/IA CONVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI
MCS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DVN/ILX MORNING SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW
MODERATELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
RISE TOWARD PROJECTED HIGHS REGION SHOULD BE LEFT UNCAPPED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MODIFIED ILX SOUNDING SUPPORTING SHOWING
MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 4000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC
PARCEL OF 90/77...WHICH APPEARS EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY.

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND ACARS DATA SHOW 35-45KT FLOW
AROUND 6KM FROM IA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH WILL RESULT IN
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AT LEAST AROUND 30KT...WHICH COMBINED WITH
SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
PERHAPS EVEN A SUPERCELL THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CELLS WERE TO
RIDE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH ANY CELLS INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARIES GIVEN THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAPE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. OBVIOUSLY STILL SITTING IN A
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A THREAT.

PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS SHORTLY TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY LIKE THE TRENDS IN THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WHICH SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING IN EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE IA/MO DECAYING MCS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CAMS NOT HANDLING ONGOING
SITUATION WELL CONFIDENCE IS DIMINISHED...BUT CERTAINLY
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE ABOVE FORECAST SCENARIO AND PLAN
TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

DESPITE THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES TODAY...PRIOR TO ANY STORMS HEAT
INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 100 TO POTENTIALLY 110 DEGREES TODAY
SO LEAVING THE HEAT HEADLINES UNCHANGED.

GRIDS ARE GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF SURGERY TO REFLECT THE ABOVE
THINKING SINCE THERE IS NO REAL GUIDANCE REFLECTING CURRENT TRENDS
OR ABOVE THINKING...BUT FORECAST UPDATES ARE FORTHCOMING.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
227 PM CDT

TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF MY AREA ALL TOGETHER AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY LOOK TO SHIFT THE MAIN
FOCUS FARTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND I
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN I HAVE
FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MY EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY
STRONG WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS NOT HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS DISTURBANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WITH IT
PREVIOUSLY APPEARING THAT THE MAIN THREAT OF STORMS COULD STAY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FARTHER NORTH FOCUS
OF STORMS...I HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF STORMS ON MONDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...SO IT APPEARS THAT TUESDAY COULD BE A DRY AND COOLER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA.

KJB

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH OVER THE END OF THE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY.

LOOKING AT A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF THE ECMWF
IS RIGHT. THE GFS FEATURES PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE LOW END CHANCE OR LOWER RANGE.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND TEMPS COULD BE WARMER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP THAT OCCURS. THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER WITH 925MB TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90S.

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* SOUTHERLY WINDS ARND 6-8KT...SLOWLY TURNING SOUTHWEST THEN
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

* POSSIBLE SHRA ISOLATED TSRA 10Z-13Z.

ED F/BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW EAST OF THE AREA TAKING MAIN AREA OF TSRA
EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS ACROSS NW IND HELPING TO FOCUS
ONGOING TSRA WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL
REESTABLISH AS EARLIER TSRA MOVES AWAY AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
BRIEFLY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS EASE BACK AROUND SUNSET.

MAINLY A QUIET A NIGHT OVERNIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES... HOWEVER
EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE BRIEF IN DURATION AND HAVE NARROWED THE
WINDOW FOR SUCH TO 10-13Z BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MAY SEE
LIGHT FOG/HAZE AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID-LATE MORNING SUNDAY
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS.

ED F

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-13Z.

ED F/BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

TUESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

THURSDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.

ED F

.MARINE...
233 PM CDT

THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER LAKE MICHGAN WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY
HIGH WAVES IN AND AROUND THE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN ON THE LAKE BY SUNDAY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

645 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
524 PM CDT

BEACHLER

.SHORT TERM...
227 PM CDT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA DUE TO
CONCERNS ABOUT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES.

DESPITE THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES TODAY...PRIOR TO ANY STORMS HEAT
INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 100 TO POTENTIALLY 110 DEGREES TODAY
SO LEAVING THE HEAT HEADLINES UNCHANGED.

GRIDS ARE GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF SURGERY TO REFLECT THE ABOVE
THINKING SINCE THERE IS NO REAL GUIDANCE REFLECTING CURRENT TRENDS
OR ABOVE THINKING...BUT FORECAST UPDATES ARE FORTHCOMING.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
227 PM CDT

TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...SO IT APPEARS THAT TUESDAY COULD BE A DRY AND COOLER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA.

KJB

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REESTABLISHING BEHIND DEPARTING TSRA EARLY
THIS EVENING.

* ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHRA AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED TSRA AROUND 10Z-13Z
SUNDAY MORNING.

* NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY STAYING 10 KT OR
LESS.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID-LATE MORNING SUNDAY
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS.

ED F

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

TUESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

THURSDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.

ED F

.MARINE...
233 PM CDT

OTHERWISE...THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN ON THE LAKE BY SUNDAY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-
ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM
SATURDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
SATURDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

UPDATED FORECAST PRIMARILY TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (BLOOMINGTON-TAYLORVILLE
WESTWARD) BEGINNING AROUND NOON TODAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF FOR SATURDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...AND MOST OF THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE HEAT INDEX OF 105
OR MORE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST IS SEEING MORE CLOUD
COVER AND ISOLATED STORMS...WHICH MAY KEEP THINGS A BIT LOWER FOR
THE HEAT INDEX TODAY.

IN TERMS OF THE STORMS...CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE OCCURRING LATE
THIS MORNING AROUND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AND
ALSO NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME CUMULUS GROWING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS LINE TOWARD
VANDALIA. HRRR TRYING TO FILL SOME OF THIS IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY...PERHAPS A REMNANT OF THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT`S STORMS. HAVE MAINLY KEPT ISOLATED STORMS GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS UP TO ABOUT
A 30% CHANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NE OF CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING CWA IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT (SPS) TO ADDRESS THE HEAT WAVE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK FROM 100-105F THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH MAY COME CLOSE TO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 105F ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE
WEST. HIGHS OF 89-93F THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS IN CENTRAL IL NORTH OF I-72 INTO FAR SE
IA. HRRR IS HANDLING THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL AND USED THIS
MODEL FOR FORECAST TODAY WHICH SHIFTS THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
FURTHER SE DURING THE MORNING. UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES OF 2-3K J/KG WILL SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL DURING THAT
TIME WITH 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EAST OF PEORIA AND
SPRINGFIELD. BULK SHEAR IS WEAK TODAY (10-20 KTS) SO STORMS WILL NOT
BE TOO ORGANIZED.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

EVEN HOTTER HEAT INDICES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON PEAKING FROM
104-109F AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THEN AND POSSIBLY
IN SOUTHEAST IL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES NEAR 105F.
SAT APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WHILE SUNDAY HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 80S NW OF IL RIVER TO 90-95F IN
SOUTH OF I-72. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO COMBINE WITH
THESE HOT TEMPS FOR THE HEAT INDICES TOPPING 105F. HEAT INDICES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM MID 90S OVER IL RIVER VALLEY TO 104-108F
IN SOUTHEAST IL.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-72 OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS NW OF LINCOLN SAT NIGHT FOR GUSTY WINDS WHILE
SLIGHT RISK IS NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. 00Z FORECAST MODELS
TRACK COLD FRONT SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL ON SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST
IL SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TO LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST IL IN SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER IL WITH TEMPS COOLING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS OF 82-87F. DEWPOINTS SLIPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL AND NW CWA AND LOWER 70S IN
SOUTHEAST IL ON MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT GETTING FURTHER SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL INTO THE
TN VALLEY WITH CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHEAST IL, SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL
PARTS AND DRY FROM I-74 NORTH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EXPAND EAST INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK UP TO LOWER 20SC
WED/THU. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE SHOULD ELEVATE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED AND 85-90F THU, AND UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
NEXT FRI. DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S LATER NEXT WORK WEEK.
ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ARE STILL DRIER DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE GFS MODEL BRINGS QPF BACK INTO CENTRAL IL ON TUE. GFS MODEL IS
AN OUTLIER AND JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON TUE AND
AREAS FROM I-72 NORTH ON WED NIGHT AND THU.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

DIURNAL CUMULUS STARTING TO INCREASE...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN
HOUR OR TWO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS OCCUR BEFORE CLOUD LEVELS START TO
LIFT. LOCATIONS FROM KPIA-KCMI ARE MOST PRONE FOR THIS OCCURRENCE.
HAVE MENTIONED SOME VCTS FOR KCMI FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE
NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY AND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ044>046-
054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047>053.

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

OTHER THAN AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND
4000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 3 TO 8 KTS.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ044>046-
054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047>053.

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

628 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

348 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEIR AFFECT
ON CIGS AND VSBYS. KPIA RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH KBMI RECEIVING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS DURING
THIS PAST HOUR. FURTHER SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED WITH
THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTING THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE. DUE TO THE STEADIER RAINFALL AT KBMI...IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH THE RAIN
AND THUNDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS TAKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE
EAST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME. ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES...AND IF CIGS CAN LIFT...WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME
FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AT BOTH PIA AND BMI WHO HAVE RECEIVED THE
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE A
MVFR VSBY IN FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SCT-BKN CUMULUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESP
AT KBMI AND KCMI WITH BASES OF 3500-4500 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT BUT BE RATHER GUSTY
IN AN NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10 TO 15 KTS ON FRIDAY.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1202 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS ADVANCED SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE HAVE TENDED TO
DIMINISH...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING ON A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS OVER KNOX COUNTY. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY
OF ROTATION AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY POSITIONED IMMEDIATELY ALONG A
WARM FRONT. AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FRONT INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE E/NE...THINK THEY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
BETWEEN NOW AND 10 PM. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS CLUSTER
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 30-40KT 850MB
JET INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN KILX CWA FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORM COMPLEX...WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA. FURTHER SOUTH...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCS HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA...AND BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE BECOMING MORE FREQUENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST. CAP IS QUICKLY ERODING TO
OUR WEST...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE`S ABOVE 3000 J/KG AS
CLOSE AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTING
SO SHOW SOME AGITATION TO THE CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...IN AN AREA WHERE THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN STARTING UP THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION. ITS SOLUTION
EXPANDS THE CONVECTION NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
VERY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS FAVORING AN EASTWARD
SPREAD NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM AND ARW ALSO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH LESSER OF A SOUTHWEST EXTENT. THUS...WILL
FOCUS THE HIGHEST POP`S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO CHICAGO...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH A TAD SOUTHWARD AND THEN EAST THROUGH CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION
COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ANALYZED OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND THIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME.
MESOSCALE MODELS FOCUS THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST HAVE ALSO HAD A FEW INCHES OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE A BIT MORE FLOOD PRONE. MOST OF THE
NORTH HALF OF ILLINOIS IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING PER
GUIDANCE FROM WPC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. HOWEVER, THE
PRIMARY THEME AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS WELL AS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON) IS THE VERY WARM HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 90S ARE LIKELY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S, AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. THIS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100-105 OR A
LITTLE WARMER DURING PEAK HEATING TIMES. THIS IS CLOSE TO HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS, AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER, OPTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE MORE SOLIDLY 105 OR BETTER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOCAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CAPPED
TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY (PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST
ABOVE 850 MB). HOWEVER, ELEVATED STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, PRODUCING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS (ASIDE FROM TONIGHT). THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
ALSO SUPPORTS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SOUTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH SUNDAY`S SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP
TO SHUNT THE BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046.

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

719 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 110 ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MCS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF LOCAL
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. THIS HAS PRODUCED A NOTICABLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN CITY SE TO PORTLAND.
HAVE REMOVED MANY OF THE COUNTIES NORTH OF THIS OUTFLOW FROM THE
HEAT ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A WARSAW TO THREE RIVERS LINE.
WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY RECOVER INTO THE MID 80S...HEAT INDICES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AROUND 90 WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100...SO THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

CURRENTLY MONITORING UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS NRN IL. HI
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LITTLE HELP TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...HOWEVER LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS ORGANIZATION ACROSS FAR NW
IL/SRN WI. HRRR SUGGEST CONTINUED WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL IL INTO WESTERN IN. THESE STORMS MAY
POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER INTEREST LIES WITH THE
ORGANIZATION ACROSS NRN IL. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY
PROPAGATE E/SE TOWARDS THE AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z...RIDING ALONG
THE APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY GRADIENT DEMARCATED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SBCAPE VALUES BUILDING TO 4000
TO 6000 J/KG SOUTH OF THIS OUTFLOW W/ MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5
C/KM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL...FROM 20-30 KTS ACROSS
THE AREA...HOWEVER IF THIS LINE CAN ORGANIZE...WHICH IT APPEARS TO
BE DOING AS I WRITE THIS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN INTO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AROUND 00Z AS A SQUALL LINE/BOW
ECHO. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A BETTER THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...ROUGHLY ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM MICHIGAN CITY TO JUST SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE. OF
COURSE...WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA...ANY
STORMS THAT PROPAGATE ALONG IT WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHER TORNADO RISK
W/ ENHANCED LOW LVL SHEAR. HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH A
DAMAGING WIND MENTION...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM 22Z TO 03Z. WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AFTER 06Z...AND WILL HINGE
ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. LARGER SCALE FRONT
WILL PUSH SE INTO THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
A BIT...ESPECIALLY NW...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS
ARE CURRENTLY SUNDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT IS LAYED OUT FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WERE CUT JUST A BIT AS
WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY
BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HEAT INDICES APPROACH 100
TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF FORT WAYNE. HOWEVER...WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIP EVOLUTION AND TEMPS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEAT HEADLINES RIGHT NOW FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

CDFNT EXPECTED TO BE MOVG THROUGH SERN PORTION OF CWA SUNDAY
EVE WITH TSTMS PSBL ALONG IT IN THE EVE. SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD
INTO THE AREA MONDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX. MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER
IDAHO THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT/TUE BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED-FRI RESULTING IN FAIR
WX WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE SFC HIGH
COMBINING WITH A WK SHRTWV TOPPING UPR RIDGE MAY BRING TSTMS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. OVERALL... TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
BLO NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

WK LEAD SHRTWV MOVG EAST ACROSS LWR MI TRIGGERING TS IN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. TS SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY... HWVR THERE ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT PSBL ALONG CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION JUST FCST
A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR NOW.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY/NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

143 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE AND IT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER AND HUMID TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

AREA OF RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 10F TO
15F AND CLOUD BASES AROUND 10KFT...EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES THROUGH 21Z.

UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE AS S/W TRACKS ACROSS SE IA INTO
WRN IL BETWEEN 21Z TO 00Z...AS ONGOING SFC DESTABILIZATION SW OF THE
LOCAL AREA CONTINUES W/ SFC FRONT/LOW LVL THETA E GRADIENT PUSHING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. CONTINUED THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS
FCST...W/ POPS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
W/ LIKELY MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF I-69...HOWEVER HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A BIT OF A SPLIT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO FAVOR SOUTHERN CONVECTION RIDING ALONG
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND DIVING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH 06Z. POPS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z...WITH ONLY CHANCE CATEGORY BY 12Z. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL
BY THE TIME CONVECTION WORKS INTO THE AREA W/ LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW W/ HI RES
MODEL SIGNALS SHOWING HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA AFTER 06Z...W/ PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

INTERESTING SETUP FOR FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH EXTREMELY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY...CONTINUED SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TWO CHALLENGES FOR THE FRIDAY FORECAST: MAX
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 IN THE SW WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE NE. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST REACHING AND EXCEEDING 100F. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
COULD COVER ACROSS THE SW WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH
ENOUGH SUN AND MOISTURE TO CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES. AT
THIS POINT...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WRT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND
SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE AND MENTION HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE HWO.

WITH STRONG TEMP/MOIST ADVECTION THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 5000
J/KG LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING. SHEAR IS WEAK AND FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE
OF ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT ENVIRONMENT IS
CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF SCATTERED PULSE STORMS...ESPECIALLY W/ DECENT
MID LVL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ANY STORMS THAT FORM
WILL POSE A MARGINAL WIND RISK. CONCUR W/ MOST RECENT SWODY2 FROM
SPC ADDING A MARGINAL RISK FRIDAY AFTN/EVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

UPR TROF OVER THE PAC NW TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS FRI NGT
WITH WK UPR RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.
MODELS SUGGEST SHRTWV/CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD MAY LEAVE A WK SFC BOUNDARY IN OUR CWA FRI EVE AND
WITH AIRMASS REMAINING VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LEFT A CHC OF TSTMS IN
THE FCST. SFC DWPTS SHOULD BE IN THE L-M70S BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY IN THE SAME RANGE. THE WK SFC BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO GRDLY INCREASING
S-SWLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/CDFNT MOVG THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.
GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE... WK FORCING AT BEST... AND
CAPPING AROUND 5-6KFT... FELT GOING SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
REASONABLE AND MAINTAINED. DWPTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE L-M70S DURING
THE DAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO H850 WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE L90S AND HEAT INDICES AOA OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
100. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF NRN PLAINS UPR TROF WITH 12Z RUNS INDICATING THE
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. MODELS
HINT AT ANOTHER WK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX MOVG ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NGT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING A LOW CHC POP
IN THE FCST... BUT BETTER CHANCES ARE SUNDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WK LIMITING SVR
THREAT DESPITE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS FCST AROUND 2" ALONG THE FRONT WITH
FAIRLY WK FLOW AND SMALL MBE VECTORS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CELLS. CONVECTION/FROPA SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP TEMPS BLO SATURDAY`S READINGS BUT STILL MAY REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY SE HALF OF CWA.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY
PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO AOB NORMAL. ANOTHER
SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS TUE-TUE NGT. FROPA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LACK SGFNT FORCING AND
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA SO MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR TUE-TUE NGT
FOR NOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW THIS WK FRONT
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GRTLKS WED-THU PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH CONTD
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA WERE MOVING THROUGH KSBN AREA AT ISSUANCE.
RADAR SHOWS A LULL BEHIND THIS LINE SO ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO TSRA
FOR AN HOUR. PCPN HEADING TOWARD KFWA STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT SHRA THERE SO KEPT THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL INCLUSION AT TAF
SITES LATER THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF TRIGGER SEEN IN MODELS. THIS KEEPS
CHANCES FOR TSRA AT TERMINALS SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN POINT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO THE
NIGHT. IA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY MODERATE WESTERLIES
UNDER MANITOBA SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STREAM OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
CONTINUES TO RIDE THIS FLOW FROM CO INTO IA WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING
NOTED IN OBJECTIVE RAP ANALYSIS AND SUBJECTIVE GLANCE AT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO AREAS OF GENESIS
CONCERN...ONE ALONG TRUE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SIOUXLAND AREA
AND SECOND WITH TROUGH SW-NE THROUGH THE HEART OF IA. FORMER
AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED WITH CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING WITH SHOWERS OVER
SWRN MN...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...1000 J/G. THE LATTER
AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE...2-3K J/KG...BUT STILL CAPPED WITH NON-
DESCRIPT CONVERGENCE. SOME CU HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM IN THIS AREA
BUT LOOKS UNORGANIZED. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MEANS PULLING LOW
END POPS INTO NWRN IA FOR A BIT...AND KEEPING PREVIOUSLY LOWERED
CHANCE POPS SE. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR BEST POTENTIAL
MAY BE FAR SOUTH LATER INTO THE NIGHT AS NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION
MATURES. RELATIVELY HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
IA...SO ANYTHING THE DOES GO COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE HIGHEST THREATS WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
KINEMATICS.

REGARDING THE PRESENT HEAT ADVISORY...WILL CANCEL SHORTLY AS 20Z
HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EVEN WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF CRITERIA WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO TOP 90. A FEW SPOTS MAY JUST TOP 100F HI...BUT
THIS WOULD NOT SEEM TO JUSTIFY CURRENT WIDESPREAD HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND LEANED TOWARD A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OVER ONTARIO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
PLACES IOWA GENERALLY IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE TO CUT
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. NAM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS AND THUS THE BULLSEYE OF QPF IS IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AND CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NOT CONFIDENT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST MONDAY.
THINKING TIMING DIFFERENCE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FROPA ARE
MINIMAL...THUS ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MORE LIKELY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
EVEN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...SO ANY THREAT SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILD INTO THE STATE AND DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDES THE UPPER RIDGE BUT LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
EAST INTO IOWA THURSDAY. TRENDED DRIER THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE
COOLEST NIGHT ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETTING UP.

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH AND THOUGH CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN 07-18Z...
HOWEVER COVERAGE REMAINS TOO SPARSE TO PUT IN SOUTH AT KOTM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /REV

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

641 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.AVIATION...19/00Z
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THREAT FOR CONVECTION DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOOKING TO
BECOME MORE LIMITED IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY NEARER KOTM. HAVE CUT
BACK ON MENTION MOST SITES AT THIS TIME. WEAK TROUGH CROSSING
SOUTHERN IOWA NOW WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TROUGH ACROSS FAR SOUTH MAY REIGNITE SOME
CONVECTION AFT 05Z SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO
BOUNDARY...BUT BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE LIES IN MO. AFT 12Z MAIN
FOCUS ON FEW-SCT CLOUDS AND VFR HIGH BKN-OVC WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS REMAINDER OF PERIOD. /REV

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ALL OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND WILL REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY
OFF OF LOWER ACADIANA...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LATEST SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWING A PWAT
AROUND 2 INCHES...PLUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MAY PUSH INTO THAT AREA...AND HELP
INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THAT LOCATION. THE 19/00Z HRRR HINTS
AT THIS SCENARIO. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.

RUA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THUS
S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT 3 KTS OR LESS...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT & SUN.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CNTL GULF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH ARE
MANAGING TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY HOT
AND MUGGY DAY CONTINUES.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECASTS FOR THE COMING
WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY REMAINING THE PRIMARY STORIES. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS IT REMAINS MOSTLY ANCHORED OVER ERN TX.
ACCORDINGLY FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MAINLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH MID/UPPER-LEVELS
STAYING FAIRLY DRY. PRIMARY EXCEPTION AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE
SERN ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH LEAST INFLUENCE
FROM THE RIDGE. BETTER POPS WILL NORMALLY BE FOUND OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/LESSER CAPPING AND HELPED ALONG BY PERIODIC WEAK
WAVES PUSHING WWD ALONG THE NRN GULF...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES EVEN
IN THESE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE 20 PERCENT AT BEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE SOME OF ITS GRIP AND
CAPPING IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH A LITTLE.

AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE MID 90S EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S WON`T FEEL MUCH BETTER
ACROSS THE SRN 1/2. THROW IN HIGH DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND APPARENT
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RUN IN THE 102-106 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY.

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NRN GULF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 96 76 96 / 0 10 10 10
LCH 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 10
LFT 78 95 78 95 / 10 10 10 10
BPT 77 96 77 95 / 10 10 10 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

734 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING THAT
MOVES EAST TODAY AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES AS NAM...HRR AND RUC ALL POINT TO NO
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROBLEM IS
NONE OF THOSE MODELS ALSO HANDLED THE MCV/QLCS THAT WENT THROUGH
SOUTH OF HERE THIS MORNING EITHER. CANADIAN POINTS TO REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GFS AND ECMWF. TO COMPLICATE THINGS
FURTHER...THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING IS FAIRLY DRY AND CAPPED WHILE THE
12Z INL SOUNDING IS UNSTABLE AND MOIST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH
WITH THIS FORECAST AND APPEARS THAT THE DRIER AND CAPPED MODEL
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING AND WILL GO WITH THAT SCENARIO. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THAT IF SOMETHING WOULD GO...IT WOULD GO SEVERE IN A
HURRY AS STRONGER SHEAR AND STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO COME IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
AREA...THINKING IS CUTTING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IS THE WAY TO GO
WITH COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL GO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN CASE SOMETHING IS ABLE TO BREAK THAT CAP. STILL THINK
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE

OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES. CUT BACK ON THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
WENT SLIGHT CHANCE ONLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER HUDSON
BAY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL COME
FROM A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST MN SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST...CROSSING THE U.P. BETWEEN 18Z/20 AND 00Z/21. THE VORT
MAX IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FARTHER NORTH OF
THE U.P. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER 850MB-300MB
QCONV WITH DEEP LAYER RH. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH LIMITING THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 18C TO 19C...BEFORE COOLING FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL...VERY WEAK WAVE
WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE U.P. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
SYSTEM WITH CONTINUED LIMITED MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH VERY WEAK
FORCING. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BRINGING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH EVEN DRYER AIR. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 12C TO 13C TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK TO THE MID
70S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT...WIDESPREAD...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT DECIDED TO STICK WITH A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE WITH
TIMING OF THE FRONT. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...BEING THIS FAR THERE
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT
HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. EXPECTED A PERIOD OF LLWS AT THE KIWD AND KCMX THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY JUST
OFF THE SFC BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 20
KNOTS AT KCMX OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 30 KNOT GUSTS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS INTO TNGT... STRONGER WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS WATER TEMPS ARE WARMING UP...WHICH WILL
LIMIT LOW-LEVEL STABILITY AND INCREASE THE CHANCE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. THEN TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT AND BETWEEN HI PRES
MOVING THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
BRING SOME WSW WINDS AS HI AS 25 KTS FROM LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE PERSISTENT...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE W
AND NCENTRAL PORTIONS BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE
TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS AFTER SUN NIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT
DOMINATES NEXT WEEK. RATHER HUMID AIR WILL CAUSE SOME FOG OVER
MAINLY THE COOLER WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

330 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69. THESE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY BY EARLY
EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH
WHILE HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
COME IN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

OUR BIGGEST CONCERNS IN THE FCST THROUGH SUN NIGHT ARE THE STORM
CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH THE HEAT POTENTIAL FOR SAT. A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE FOR THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWFA.

WE HAVE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69. WE ARE WATCHING AN
ENHANCED CU FIELD THAT STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM MIDLAND COUNTY TO EAST
OF SOUTH HAVEN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DUE TO THE
WRLY FLOW OFF OF COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...MU CAPES
ARE AROUND 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING A
BIT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER PULSE TYPE STORMS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THEY MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT LOW CHC OF SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WOULD COME ON SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA. A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS FCST TO DEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS MN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT THERE. THERE ARE SOME MODELS LIKE
THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF THAT BRING THIS E/SE AFTER DAYBREAK SAT
MORNING. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES EXPECTED
TO BE ORIENTED THIS WAY AND A DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY GRADIENT VERY
SIMILAR. THE LLJ WEAKENS BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE...SO WE EXPECT IT
WOULD BE IN THE DECAYING STAGES IF IT MAKES IT HERE.

ONCE THE DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS OUT OF THE PICTURE...THE
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY. ASSUMING THERE IS NOT A PROBLEM WITH
CLEARING CLOUDS OUT SAT MORNING AND SOME POSSIBLE FOG...WE SHOULD
WARM UP QUICKLY AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. WE ARE LOOKING AT HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F ROUGHLY OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWFA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A POP UP STORM SAT AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FLOATING AROUND AND POSSIBLE MU CAPES OF 5000 J/KG. WE LOOK VERY
CAPPED...SO THE CHCS OF A STORM ARE LIMITED TO ABOUT 10-20 PCT.
ANYTHING THAT POPS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH WEAK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

THE BETTER CHC FOR STORMS WILL ROLL IN SAT NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT
LATER ON SUN. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME HIGHER
CHCS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THE CAP AND WILL FOLLOW THE EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND BE BETTER ORGANIZED AS A BETTER WIND FIELD ALOFT
MOVES IN. ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THAT
POTENTIAL THEN ON SUN IF THE FRONT IS STILL IN THE AREA. IF THE
FRONT CLEARS THE CWFA SOONER RATHER THAN LATER ON SUN...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

IN GENERAL NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK RELATIVELY LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND LESS HUMID. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXISTS WITH THE ECMWF MUCH QUICKER
THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED IN SW LWR MI WITH BETTER POPS IN ERN LWR MI WHERE BETTER
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RETURN OF WAA RELATED PRECIP...AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE ALOFT...
ALREADY SHOWING QPF ON THURSDAY. THE GFS MEANWHILE WANTS TO HOLD THE
SFC RIDGE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT AT 18Z WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS
OF 3000 FT OR GREATER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR MIX OUT
COMPLETELY. VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT LOOK FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH VSBYS PROBABLY TRENDING TO IFR
CATEGORY OF 1-3 MILES OR POSSIBLY LOWER...ESPECIALLY 09Z-13Z. THE
FOG WILL LIFT/MIX OUT TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND JXN AND BTL
FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z AND 00Z TODAY. FELT THIS
POSSIBILITY WAS TOO LOW TO HAVE IN THE TAFS BUT WILL MONITOR.
BELIEVE ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL FIRE JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
THESE TERMINALS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

WE HAVE EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR
THE TIME BEING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH WEB CAMS ALONG THE SHORE SHOW FAIRLY DENSE FOG AT MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS BAD AT SOUTH HAVEN...BUT IT
HAS EXPANDED SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE GONE WRLY. EVEN
HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING IN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT IF
NOT SUNDAY. A CORE OF WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
COULD RAMP WINDS UP SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS IS ALWAYS TRICKY WITH
WARMER AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

STREAMFLOWS AT MOST OF OUR RIVER GAUGES ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHORT DURATION URBAN
AND LOW LYING AREA FLOODING. A FEW RIVERS COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR
BANKS IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS WITHIN CERTAIN DRAINAGE BASINS. THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE RIVERS TO FLOODING WILL BE THE ONES THAT WERE AFFECTED
BY HEAVY RAIN LAST MONTH... GENERALLY THE UPPER PORTION OF THE GRAND
RIVER BASIN (IONIA-LANSING-JACKSON AREAS) AND THE KALAMAZOO BASIN.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO
9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

314 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON STORM
CHANCES...STRENGTH...AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

AS OF 3 PM SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TOWARD KOOCHICHING COUNTY. THE STORMS HAVE
WEAKENED AS THEY HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND MOST
OF THE CAMS HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP IS FURTHER
EAST THAN MOST HAD IT AT THIS TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA AS OF LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT MOVING
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY...THEN JUST CLEARING OUR
EASTERN CWA BY 00Z SUN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN SK...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...LAGGING THE FRONT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE MODELS WERE
OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN WILL MAKE
IT TONIGHT...AND WE BLENDED THE HRRR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING THIS AFTERNOON AND WERE FROM
500 OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS
OF THE 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE HIGHEST CAPE AND NOSE OF THE LLJ
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON DEVELOPING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER OUR AREA...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST SOUTH. WE HAVE BEEN QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING...MAINLY FROM NORTHERN CASS COUNTY NNE TO NORTHERN SAINT
LOUIS COUNTY. PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES AGAIN
TONIGHT. WE THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AS BIG A
THREAT AS LAST NIGHT. THE HRRR/NMM/ARW HIGH RES SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE STORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
SOUTH. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL FROM NORTHERN CASS TO KOOCHICHING COUNTIES YESTERDAY INTO THE
EVENING. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORM
MODE/STRENGTH AND MAY HAVE TO ISSUE HEADLINES IF NEEDED.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
MAY WEAKEN OR MOVE OFF LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEY COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE FROM 65 TO AROUND 70...THEN DROP BEHIND IT. MOST AREAS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND IN THE LATE EVENING...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
MANITOBA/ONTARIO LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD BE LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NW WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS INDICATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE DRY...BUT THE SREF IS INDICATING LOW PCPN CHANCES...SO
ADDED THE SREF TO THE MODEL BLEND TO GIVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS
AND GEM. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES
AND PCPN CHANCES. SINCE THE ECMWF FRONT PASSAGE IS DURING THE WEE
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING...IT DOES NOT HAVE THE INSTABILITY AND PCPN
THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE INDICATING WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PASSAGE TIMEFRAME. THE GFS HAS MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY...PARTLY SINCE ITS COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/SREF.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY AND A BIT
COOLER FOR THIS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...BUT
GENERALLY SUGGEST A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SETTING UP DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AND
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THERE MAY BE LINGERING MVFR CEILING ACROSS NW WISCONSIN AND NE
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING TO
PLACE IN THE FORECASTS YET. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 82 60 81 / 40 50 10 10
INL 61 79 57 78 / 70 50 10 20
BRD 66 83 59 84 / 60 20 0 10
HYR 65 85 60 81 / 40 50 0 10
ASX 63 85 61 81 / 30 50 10 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

400 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...HEAT BUILDS...

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS CURRENTLY A BIT MORE CONVECTION ADVANCING
GRADUALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE AL GULF COAST THAN WAS GENERALLY
ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL OF A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ADVANCING WSW DOWN THE COASTLINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS...BUT
IT IS LIKELY THE BULK OF THE MOST POTENT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST BORDER OF MY CWA. REGARDLESS...WE WILL OF
COURSE BE WATCHING IT CLOSELY.

THIS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE EAST AND SOUTHWARD EDGE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING
MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SOME HOPE OF A COOLING LATE-DAY SHOWER.
BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP TOO HIGH BECAUSE POPS ARE GENERALLY
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. EXAMINING MODEL DETAILS...IT
APPEARS AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AL
IS REALLY HELPING DRIVE SEMI-ORGANIZED ACTIVITY PRESENTLY OCCURRING
BUT THIS SIGNATURE SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE SUBTLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE LATTER IS AN ARGUMENT TO SUGGEST WE ARE NOT BIASING POPS TOO LOW
IN THE SHORT TERM.

OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE THE TREND OF GRADUALLY BUILDING HEAT TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOILS
CONTINUE TO DRY AND HEAT UP. INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
LIKELY WORK TO DROP DEWPOINTS A LITTLE MORE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
HIGHER ACTUAL AIR TEMPS MIGHT ALLOW FOR ZERO NET IMPROVEMENT IN HEAT
INDICES. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS SEEING HEAT
INDEX VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 103 AND 109 DEGREES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERING
THIS OUTLOOK WE EXTENDED WITH HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

IN ALL ACTUALITY...THE PEAK IN HEAT MIGHT WAIT UNTIL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER US STARTS BREAKING
DOWN A BIT AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IS MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDSOUTH AND TN VALLEY. AT SOME
POINT IN THE NOT-TOO-DISTANT FUTURE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST HEAT
ADVISORIES BEING EXTENDED IN TIME FOR MOST (IF NOT ALL ALL AREAS)
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. /BB/

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO HBG
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD./15/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/

PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... AS THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY
AND DROP INTO OUR AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT WELL NORTH
OF OUR AREA BUT SOME CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAY TRACK OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES AS A RESULT ON TUESDAY. A WEAKENED MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL LINGER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY GREATER DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT MODEL RUN
ACCUMULATIONS STILL SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. IN FACT...MODELS STILL SHOW NO RAINFALL OVER OUR
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PORTIONS OF THE DELTA. GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES. LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RESULT IN LOWER
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY...HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. /22/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 97 77 97 / 5 15 5 12
MERIDIAN 75 96 76 97 / 8 16 8 16
VICKSBURG 76 96 76 97 / 4 8 3 7
HATTIESBURG 76 97 76 98 / 15 36 12 25
NATCHEZ 75 94 76 96 / 5 11 5 14
GREENVILLE 77 97 77 98 / 3 4 2 4
GREENWOOD 76 97 77 97 / 3 7 2 5

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

BB/15/22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

957 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR ARE STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MO INTO
WEST CENTRAL IL LATER THIS EVENING AS 925-850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASES ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS FORCING INCREASES THROUGH 06Z AND THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
I-70 OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT IS ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S.

BRITT

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

A SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT CAN BE SEEN
SPINNING ACROSS STHRN MANITOBA THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PUT THE FA ON THE STHRN FRINGE OF ZONAL FLOW.
THE TSTM COMPLEX FROM THIS MORNING LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT AS
OF 20Z STRETCHES FROM NTHRN PHELPS...CRAWFORD...WASHINGTON AND STHRN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN MO AND BECOMES UNIDENTIFIABLE FARTHER EAST
INTO SW IL. ISLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BNDRY THIS AFTN
BUT MID LVL TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THIS
BNDRY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DSSPT THIS EVNG. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOC
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE NTHRN FA
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF MORE THAN ENOUGH SB CAPE...IN EXCESS OF
5000 J/KG THIS EVNG...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS...THE NTHRN
PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVNG. MID LVL TEMPS REMAIN A CONCERN BUT AMS IS UNCAPPED AND QUITE
UNSTABLE SO THINK AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
RELATIVELY WARM MID LVLS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DSSPT TOWARDS 12Z WITH THE BEST GUESS ATTM BEING SOMEWHERE ALONG
I70...BUT THE REAL QUESTION IS WHERE THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BNDRY
ENDS UP BY SUN AFTN. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
MOS SEEMS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PASSES NORTH OF THE CWA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG WHICH TRANSITIONS THE UPPER LVL FLOW INTO LOW
AMPLITUDE NW FLOW WITH SLOW HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DVLP IN THE
VC OF THE OUTFLOW BNDRY AND DSSPTNG COLD FRONT SUN AFTN. THE COLD
FRONT IS FCST TO DISSOLVE SUN EVNG IN THE VC OF I70 WITH STHRLY
SFC FLOW RETURNING BY MON MRNG. ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK PER SPC ON SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO PLENTY OF CAPE AND
MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE THREAT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUN PUTS THE HEAT ADVY IN QUESTION...ESP FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I70 WHERE THE OUTFLOW BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO BE...BUT NOT
SURE I CAN CUT THE CHEESE THAT FINE SO WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS
IS. MY LUCK I WOULD ZIG AND MOTHER NATURE WOULD ZAG.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PASSES BY MON AFTN/EVNG WITH THE ASSOC COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE NTHRN CWA MON NIGHT PASSING SOUTH OF THE FA BY
TUE EVNG. MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MON/MON NIGHT. I
DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUN THRU MON NIGHT AND
AS SUCH THE POP FCST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. I AM SURE THERE WILL
BE PERIODIC SCTTRD CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT I AM
NOT SURE ABOUT PLACEMENT...TIMING OR COVERAGE.

WENT AOB THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE SUN/MON NORTH OF I70 IN
ANTICIPATION OF PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP. USED MORE OF
A BLEND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I70...FOR LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BNDRY.

THE FA SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND PRECIP MID WEEK AS THE
COLD FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS COOL FROM THE
LOW 20S ON SUN/MON TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TUE/WED. HIGH TEMPS TUE-
THU SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-UPPER 80S FROM N-S WITH LOWS WED/THU MRNGS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE STL METRO AREA. THE BNDRY IS
FCST TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE EXPANDS
EAST AGAIN. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE UPPER LVL
HEIGHT RISES AND HENCE LIFTS THE BNDRY THRU FASTER AND IS QUICKER TO
REINTRODUCE A RETURN TO HOT TEMPS. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY GETS TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION BY NEXT WKND...IT JUST TAKES LONGER TO GET THERE.
THE END RESULT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF HEAT FOR
NEXT WKND WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE FA WILL BE ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LVL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE SW CONUS MEANING WELL WITHIN
RANGE OF NIGHTTIME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD RUIN A GOOD TEMP
FCST...MUCH LIKE TODAY.

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN FOR TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT IS AT UIN
TONIGHT. TSRA MAY DEVELOP AND IMPACT TERMINAL AS EARLY AS 06Z
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BELIEVE GREATER CHANCES ATTM WILL BE CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. SOME QUESTION REMAINS HOW LONG THE THREAT WILL LINGER
INTO SUN. THE THREAT FOR TSRA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SWD WITH TSRA
POSS AT COU/SUS/CPS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT ANY TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN WELL N
AND W OF TERMINAL OVERNIGHT WITH A SLY TO SWLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
TSRA MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHES SWD.

TILLY

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-
MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-
ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE.
GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

614 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

High pressure centered over the Southern Plains is keeping a hot and
humid air mass firmly in place over the region. A series of short
waves moving along the northern periphery of the upper level ridge
has set off scattered convection across the mid Mississippi into the
Texas panhandle overnight. However...the convection seems to be
falling apart as it makes its way across Kansas. But with lots of
unstable air across the region...will keep slight chance PoPs in
for the morning hours.

High temperatures and heat index values will once again be the main
concerns into the weekend. Highs for today and Saturday are
expected to be in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values
ranging from 99 to 104 today and 100 to 105 on Saturday. With these
conditions having occurred over several days now in our northern
tier of counties...a heat advisory is in effect for this area for
today and will be in effect for the entire area on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Conditions are expected to remain hot and humid through the weekend as
the upper level ridge remains in place over the area. The heat
advisory will be in effect through the early evening on Sunday.
Heat index values on Sunday will range from 102 to 109 across the
entire region.

An upper level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
Northern Plains on Sunday which will suppress the upper ridge and
allow a surface cold front to move into the area. This will bring
a period of unsettled weather to the region through the remainder
of the forecast period.

This next chance of rain is expected to begin during the day on
Sunday. The front stalls out over Arkansas on Monday which will
keep rain chances in the forecast as upper level short waves
periodically traverse the northern periphery of the upper level
ridge. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast
through Thursday.

Highs will also begin to moderate early in the week. Temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday and in the
80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. As the upper level ridge begins to
reassert itself late in the week...expect a return to the hot and
humid conditions.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Some scattered showers were developing in south central Kansas
early this morning and HRRR brings this activity eastward into the
forecast area this morning. Not a high confidence in specific TAF
sites getting showers/thunderstorms today and for now will leave
out and keep in VFR conditions. Should this activity affect any of
the TAF sites, a brief drop to MVFR conditions would be
possible...generally from the mid morning into the early afternoon.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ057-
058-068>071-077-079>083-088>098-101>106.

HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Sunday FOR
MOZ055-056-066-067-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ097-
101.

HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Sunday FOR
KSZ073.

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Lindenberg

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

625 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROPICAL
STORM DOLORES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
SYSTEM COMBINING WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SURGE UP THE 4 CORNERS AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A STALLED BOUNDARY
MEANDERING ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND BACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. BENEATH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPS GENERALLY INTO THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE FROM THE SW WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SW NEB THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ZERO TO
6 KM SHEAR IS GOOD AT 35 TO 40 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES VARY BETWEEN
1500 TO 2500 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL...WHICH IS STILL DECENT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH LESSENS
THE SFC BASED STORMS AND MORE LIKELY TO SEE ELEVATED ACTIVITY.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER
SOME WIND OR AN ISOLD TORNADO COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. PWATS AT
1.50 INCHES OR BETTER AND STORM MOTION IS AROUND 10 KTS SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. YESTERDAY STORMS PRODUCED LOCAL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT STORMS TONIGHT TO
BE SW OF LAST NIGHT ACTIVITY.

TOMORROW HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH. ALSO GOING TO SEE ANOTHER WAVE PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH A CONTINUED TAP TO PACIFIC MOISTURE. WILL MONITOR FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

IN THE MID TERM SOLUTIONS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FLATTENED SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AND CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MID AND HIGH MOISTURE
STREAMING STREAMING FROM SYSTEM OFF BAJA AND ACROSS MEXICO
STREAMING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ENERGY
CONTINUES TO BE EJECTED OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. TIMING OF
WAVES CONTINUES AS A VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OVER KANSAS WILL BE KEY TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL CAP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH 1400
JOULES/ KILOGRAM AND WEAK SHEAR. PROGRESSIVE WAVE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. MONDAY RIDGE REBOUNDS BEHIND
EXITING WAVE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME 90S
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE CARRIED SOME SCHC POPS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BASED ON STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS WITH LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. TUESDAY STRONGER SLOW MOVING AS
A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES
BRINGING HEIGHTENED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTERACTING WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. HIGHS IN
THE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS RISING INTO
THE 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND DRY AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF TSRA AT THE KLBF TAF AND VCNTY
INTO SWRN NEB. SHORT RANGE CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND EVEN 18.00Z
RUNS OF OTHERS FAVOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING
IN THE VCNTY OF THE I80 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO THE KLBF AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE IN
THE AREA OF RETREATING DRY LINE IN THE SRN SANDHILLS AND INTO SWRN
NEB. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...BEST CAPE AND AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
RESIDES EAST OF THE RETREATING DRY LINE SO ONCE ONGOING TSRA MOVES
OUT OF HIGHER TERRAIN CI SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 19.00Z MUCH
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS. HAVE TIMED THE STORMS BASED FOR THE KLBF
TAF BASED ON THIS ASSUMPTION AND CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVE IN THIS
SCENARIO. ONCE STORMS FORM/EVOLVE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE A
CONCERN AND HAVE TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS HAIL. TSRA SHOULD LARGELY BE SOUTH OF KVTN SO
HAVE JUST INCLUDED MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TYPE CLOUDINESS THERE.

SOME INDICATION IN SHORT RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AROUND SUNRISE...AGAIN
PRIMARILY IN SWRN NEB. CONFIDENCE IS LESS IN THAT SCENARIO THOUGH
WOULD BE A TYPICAL EVOLUTION IN MOIST BL ENVIRONMENTS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

356 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. THE NAM AND
THE RAP ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECT THAT CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL SPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE CWA SITS UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/GULF COAST REGIONS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST NEAR
THE CAN/ND BORDER WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE CENTRAL
WRN COAST AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...THAT NRN LOW
WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST...AND WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE START OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND BY LATE AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FAR SERN CORNER. EVEN WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING
MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 14-16 DEGREE C RANGE...AND SHOULD KEEP THINGS
CAPPED. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IS ON THE
LOW SIDE WITH A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
NRN AREAS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S /MAYBE MID 80S?/...WHILE FAR
SRN AREAS WHICH WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
MAY REACH UP TOWARD THE 100 DEGREE MARK. STILL LOOKING AT THOSE SRN
AREAS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB INTO THE
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

SAT EVENING/NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST...AS
THE BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
THINKING THAT THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT AND AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG AN
INCREASED LLJ...BUT THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. MODELS SHOW A MODEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISNT
OVERLY STRONG...COULD SEE SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE CWA SITS IN THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
MARGINAL RISK AREA.

AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY...THE TRAILING EDGE OF THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION...AND KEPT
POPS IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN THIS LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND MAY BE MAINLY A FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
ISSUE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHTLY COOLER /ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER AT 850MB/
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. E/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THAT SFC
FRONT IS LOCATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO NOT BE TOO FAR SOUTH
OF THE CWA. POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ALL ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MON-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...AS THE CWA SITS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THE NRN EDGE OF ELONGATED HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOCIATED POPS IS DEFINITELY ON THE LOW SIDE. HIGHS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME RANGE FROM THE MID 80S/NEAR 90 NORTH TO LOWER/MID 90S IN
THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

551 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TS ACTIVITY WILL BE PRETTY HIT AND MISS THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SH/TS ACROSS SW PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE ABQ METRO AREA LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING. USED
VCSH AT AEG/ABQ/SAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
GUP AND PERHAPS EVEN FMN LATER THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
ACTION ACROSS AZ ALTHOUGH HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOL ACTIVITY. LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CROP OF STORMS TO FORM ACROSS WC AREAS AND IMPACTING
GUP EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE ONLY VCTS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
FOR GUP. TCC/LVS/ROW FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS QUIET ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT SH ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. PRETTY HIT AND MISS
HOWEVER.

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...

THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DOLORES
IS DRAWN WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE STATE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL WAVER OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
SAGGING THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT COOL TEMPERATURES MUCH...COMBINED WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME...IT WILL HELP INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRIER
PERIOD FOR THE WEST AND NORTH. HOWEVER...THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
DRIER SPELL MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE PLUME DIRECTED INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM TODAY AND
THICKER CLOUDS THAT EXISTED ON FRIDAY THINNED OUT TODAY...ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN PLACES WHERE YESTERDAY/S CLOUDS KEPT
HIGHS MORE COMFORTABLE. CONVECTION BEGAN EARLIER AS WELL
TODAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE WEST AND NORTH. A FEW CELLS
GETTING STARTED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ATTM BUT NAM12
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS AREA WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING...AND
HUNG ONTO ONLY ISOLD POPS THERE.

MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY POPS RAMP UP AS THE PLUME REORGANIZES
AND BECOMES MORE FOCUSED OVER NEW MEXICO. A SURFACE BOUNDARY DIPS
INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND UPPED POPS THERE...SINKS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN SAGS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO
BE A BIT SLOWER AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN TODAY. GUIDANCE NOT
LATCHING ONTO AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV AT LEAST AT KABQ JUST YET
BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT DUE TO CONVECTION TO THE EAST.
NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST A BOUNDARY WOULD GO...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
HIGHER POPS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE WEDNESDAY POP GRID FROM
THE RGV TO THE CONTDVD.

OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRIER PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW IT WILL DRY OUT COMPLETELY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD STILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST.
POPULATED HIGHS DO RISE TO NEAR AVERAGE OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONSOON PLUME CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE STATE OVER ARIZONA WITH
LIMITED WETTING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN. PLUME TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
REMAIN CENTERED OVER NM ON TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN WETTING RAIN EACH DAY. DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY LIMITING NORTHWARD PROGRESS IN MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH A DECREASE IN WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...AND ON THURSDAY WHEN WETTING RAIN WILL FAVOR
SOUTHERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES TO WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MONSOON PLUME HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST...
FAVORING ARIZONA...AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO DELAYED THE START OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A
WIND SHIFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND IS REINFORCED LATE
SUNDAY AND ON MONDAY. THUS...A DAY TO DAY INCREASE AND EXPANSION IN
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN FLATTENS AND
DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BY LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A DOWNTICK IN WETTING RAIN
EXPECTED. WHILE THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS A BIT OF THURSDAY...THE DEEP
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WHILE ON
FRIDAY SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS LOOKS TO EXPAND THE CHANCES OF
WETTING RAIN TO WESTERN THEN NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL TREND DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
THEN FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME...HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH A BROAD AREA
OF 5 ON WEDNESDAY WITH REACHING 5/6 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD
TO EXCELLENT...EXPECT ON MONDAY WHEN LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS AND
DECREASED MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST RESULT IN AREAS OF POOR TO
FAIR VENTILATION.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1041 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1041 PM EDT SATURDAY...THOUGH GENERALLY SMALL, I`VE MADE
SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

EARLIER SURFACE CONFLUENCE LINE WHICH HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN A MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS SINCE SHIFTED
INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND I`VE BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS/THUNDER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP-BASED HEIGHT FIELD
PROGS INFER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THAT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY THROUGH
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, RIDGING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGINS TO ENTER ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. LATEST BTV-6 AND HRRR OUTPUT SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA AFTER 08Z, WHICH MAY BE A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER PORTION OF UPSTREAM MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
RE-INTRODUCED FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH HOW
HUMID IT IS OUTSIDE, I COULDN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AS PROGGED.

SPECIFIC TO THE DEWPOINT/HUMIDITY LEVELS...TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ARE ALREADY PRETTY SMALL (WITHIN
2-4 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER). ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE, I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE. THERE
ALREADY ARE A FEW SITES (FSO, CDA AND MVL) REPORTING EITHER FOG OR
MIST.

WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED, THIS WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL FALL VERY SLOWLY INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, CLOSE TO
OR EQUAL TO DEWPOINTS.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE DAY LATE ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUNDAY WILL
START OFF AS A WARM MUGGY MORNING AND WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING TO
BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO WARM
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
RISING TO NEARLY 70 EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. CURRENT FORECAST CAPE WILL RISE TO
2000-3000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON WITH IMPRESSION ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALSO HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT CAP
THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WE FINALLY ERODE THE CAP.
ONCE THE CAP ERODES HOWEVER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WE WILL
SEE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE FORCING WILL COME IN THE SHAPE OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE DYNAMICS ARE SHAPING UP TO
BE A MUCH BETTER STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE THAN SATURDAY. JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO
40-45KT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVING TO 7-7.5 DEG C/KM.
WITH PW ALREADY 1.5 STANDARDIZE ANOMALIES ABOVE NORMAL NEARING THE
2.0" INCH RANGE EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH THE
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FLASH FLOODING IS A
CONCERN BUT WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF`S
ARE A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SO I OPTED TO
HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED EML MOVING IN JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SO STRONG WINDS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, AND THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT MONDAY TO BE QUIET AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO
CLEAR THE AREA OUT ALLOWING TEMPS TO STILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO THE
LOW 80`S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LATEST
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING THE MID WEEK FRONT IN SOONER
SO I CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCE
RAPIDLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME MINOR INSTABILITY
INDICATED...SO OPTED FOR CONTINUITY TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL
REGULATE OUR DAYTIME TEMPS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN PLACE UNDER
A 500 MB TROUGH. DURING WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY GENERATED FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OF A FEW MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE SO I JUST
HAVE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH PARKED OVER EASTERN
CANADA HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS DURING
THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR FOR THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV WITH SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY E OF KBTV AT 2345Z.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. TYPICAL TROPICAL SKY WITH SCT LOW AND MID CLOUDS AND VFR
FOR MOST BUT EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z
WITH POSSIBLE IFR IN FOG AT MPV/SLK. REMNANTS OF GREAT LAKES MCS
AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHC SHRA TO NRN NY AND
POSSIBLY CHAMPLAIN VLY BETWEEN 08-12Z SU.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN EVERYWHERE AT 12-14Z SUN BUT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NY/VT AFT 16-18Z. ATTM ONLY
VCSH IN TAF DUE TO TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON - 12Z MON...VFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG PSBL MPV/SLK.

12Z TUE - 00Z THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING. KCXX RADAR HAS DETECTED MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CELLS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TOWARDS GRAND ISLE.
AFTER THESE CELLS PASS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED AROUND THE LAKE
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MV/SLW
MARINE...VERASAMY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

750 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK SFC/MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACRPSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO CAPE FIELD IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG HAS
ACCOUNTED FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG VT CHAMPLAIN
E OF BTV. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT SFC AND WNW MID-LVL FLOW ACTUALLY
FORMED WEAK MESO WITH LOWERING BASE JUST E OF KBTV AIRPORT BUT
STRENGTH/DURATION OF CIRCULATION LIMITED. TOOK A QUICK VIEW
OUTSIDE AND UPDRAFTS WERE RATHER IMPRESSIVE.

IN ANY EVENT...NO LIGHTNING BEING REPORTED YET AND STARTING TO
LOSE INSTABILITY FROM PEAK HEATING. HRRR HAD NICE PICK UP OF RAPID
DEVELOPMENT THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES IN CENTRAL VT.

OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WINDS SLACKENING AND VERY HUMID
FOR HAZE AND EVENTUAL FOG IN FAVORED MTN VLYS. TEMP TRENDS APPEAR
ON TRACK THUS EXCEPT FOR INCREASED POPS FOR THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
AND SHORT DEMISE...NO BIG CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 338 PM SAT...LIGHT TO MODERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS CLEARING IN THE CU FIELD CONTINUES BREAK OUT. THE CLOUD
COVER HAS DEFINITELY REDUCED OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AFTER WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING EXPECT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS IN THE MID
60S, AND WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS WELL,
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY MUGGY EVENING. WITH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ITS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER RIVER VALLEYS THAT SOME LIGHT
GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP BUT EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR FOR THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV WITH SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY E OF KBTV AT 2345Z.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. TYPICAL TROPICAL SKY WITH SCT LOW AND MID CLOUDS AND VFR
FOR MOST BUT EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z
WITH POSSIBLE IFR IN FOG AT MPV/SLK. REMNANTS OF GREAT LAKES MCS
AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHC SHRA TO NRN NY AND
POSSIBLY CHAMPLAIN VLY BETWEEN 08-12Z SU.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN EVERYWHERE AT 12-14Z SUN BUT SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NY/VT AFT 16-18Z. ATTM ONLY
VCSH IN TAF DUE TO TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON - 12Z MON...VFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG PSBL MPV/SLK.

12Z TUE - 00Z THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/SLW
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MV/SLW
MARINE...VERASAMY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

715 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS DIE DOWN
LATE THIS EVENING A VERY HUMID AND WARM AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY. THE
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MORE
COMFORTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY BEING FUELED BY INSTABILITY PLUME
EXTENDING THROUGH PA TO SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, TYPIFIED BY MLCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG. STORMS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE TO HOLD
OCCASIONALLY IMPRESSIVE CORES. DESPITE THE DOWNPOURS AND SMALL
HAIL, THERE IS NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION OR LEAN.

GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS SEEM TO BE LEANING HEAVILY ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY, BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
APPROACHING.

LIGHT FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 4Z-6Z.

PREV DISC...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE CONVECTION WAS VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE WITH VERY LITTLE
COVERAGE. THE 7.4 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DARKENING IN NY/PA SUGGESTING MID-LEVEL SUBSDC BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE THAT WAS PASSING TO OUR EAST. THIS SUBSDC WAS FIGHTING THE
CONVECTIVE HEATING AND UPDRAFTS AS MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE OVER2000
J/KG IN AS LARGE PART OF C NY AND NE PA. ONCE THIS VERY DARK PATCH
PASSES E OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE SUBSC WILL LESSEN
AND BELIEVE ACVTY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO SCT IN NE PA/SC NY
AND REMAIN JUST ISOLATED IN THE NORTH PART OF CENTRAL NY. THIS
ACVTY DOES HAVE A LOT OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...BUT A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS ALSO WAS HAMPERING
DEVELOPMENT PLUS LACK OF STRG FORCING. HENCE WE DON/T BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE ANY ORGANIZATION AND WE WILL HAVE POPS FROM SLGHT
CHC TO CHC WITH THE HIGHEST CHC IN NE PA/CATSKILLS AND LEAST CHC
IN OUR LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN COUNTIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACVTY. SINCE THE PRESENT ACVTY WAS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IT SHUD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THEN SCT SHRA AND TSRA CUD ARRIVE AGAIN BTWN 9Z-12Z SUN OR SO AS
REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE ACVTY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ARE PROGGED TO
REACH C NY AS PER RAP AND HRRR. OTHER MODELS HINTS AT THIS TOO. IF
ANY ACVTY REACHES C NY IT WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE SOME
POPS FOR THIS ACVTY AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE EURO...GFS...NAM...CMC AS WELL AS
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ALL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PROJECTED HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
CAPES ON THE HI RES MODELS RANGE FROM 2000-4000 J/KG...LI/S ON
THE EURO ARE BETWEEN -8C AND -10C AT 00Z MON...THE GEM GETS DOWN
TO -8C LI. THIS INSTABILITY OCCURS AS A STRG UPR LVL JET MAX MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MON AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
INTO THIS AREA AS WELL. AS A RESULT...SHEAR PROFILES LOOK
IMPRESSIVE LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX
ARRIVES. THIS WHOLE SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING E-SE TWD NY AND PA SUN
PM OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RDG WHICH IS RETROGRADING TO THE SC U.S.
THIS IS A CLASSIC NW FLOW SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.

GIVEN THE RESULTANT SHEAR PROFILES OF ARND 20 KNOTS 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR...30-35 KNOTS 0-3 KM AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 50 KNOTS 0-6
KM SHEAR...WE CUD BE LOOKING AT AN EVENT WHERE SUPERCELLS FORM IN
THE EASTERN LAKES WHICH MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE/DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT REACHES C NY AND NE PA SUN EVE. OUR LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
CHECKLIST RETURNS A COUPLE OF OUR BIGGER DERECHO EVENTS. CONCUR
WITH SPC EXPANDING SLGHT RISK TO COVER OUR WHOLE AREA LATER SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS UPGRADED
FURTHER IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS PERSIST ON THE LATER
MODEL RUNS.

IN ADDTN...GIVEN HOW WET IT HAS BEEN LATELY AND THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION THAT THIS NEXT WAVE HAS AS POINTED OUT BY WFO
BUFFALO...IF RAIN RATES ARE HEAVY ENOUGH THERE CUD BE SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STORMS ARE
MOVING TOO FAST TO PRECLUDE MAJOR FLASH FLOODING SO JUST MENTIONED
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR NOW. ALSO MENTIONED POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IN HWO.

LASTLY HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS
SUNDAY WHICH FALLS SHORT OF OUR HEAT ADVY CRITERIA OF 100F. WE
KEPT MENTION OF HEAT IN HWO FOR GOOD MEASURE.

WE EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR AND COOLER
WEATEHR FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...

MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MODELS BRING
IN A MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEM WITH A SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL TROF TUESDAY. MIDDAY FROPA NOT THE BEST FOR HEATING TO HELP
THE INSTABILITY. TIMING HAS CHANGED ON THIS AND STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT SO IT COULD CHANGE AGAIN.

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TUES NGT ON. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. SO NOW TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. EURO HAS A DEEPER TROF THAT LASTS LONGER.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT TUESDAY EVENING THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU
AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY. CANADIAN AND EURO SIMILAR BUT GFS HAS
WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THE ENTIRE WEEK.

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR THE AVP TERMINAL THIS EVENING, A BRIEF
RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.

MANY TERMINALS MAY BATTLE WITH LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, WITH
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1SM AND 4SM. ELM MAY MAKE A RUN AT
1/2SM FOG TOWARD SUNRISE.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN EVE THRU TUE...A FEW RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA...ESPECIALLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUN AND AGAIN TUE.

WED...VFR.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

321 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TODAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IN
ADDITION, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR 0130 PM UPDATE SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AS A FEW AREAS ARE WARMING SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN NORMAL. KTYX RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 16Z...SO BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST I WENT AHEAD
AND BROUGHT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN SOONER BY A COUPLE OF HOURS
TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR
AND RAP MODELS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AFTER 21Z. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS. WHILE MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ALONG WITH LIKELY
POPS. SHOWALTERS GO NEGATIVE AND PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.75".
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED IN ENHANCED WORDING AS NAM
CONTINUES TO INDICATED HIGH CAPE ACROSS THE AREA IN EXCESS OF
2500. STILL A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH CLEARING THAT WE WILL SEE. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BROUGHT THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH A BIT QUICKER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLEARING
AND RESULTING INCREASED INSTABILITY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PWATS
NEARING 2 INCHES WILL BE PLENTY REASON TO EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAIN
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THERE WILL ALSO BE DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WITH LOW LEVEL JET NEARBY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...NEARING 90 DEGREES AND HUMID. DECENT LAPSE RATES ON
SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY HIGH CAPES ONCE AGAIN MAY BE A SECOND
BUSY DAY FOR US.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT FROPA TIMING, BUT GIVEN THE WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ANY CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, MAYBE JUST
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE AND SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
ASSOCIATED PRECIP/SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SATURDAY, WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AREA-WIDE AND LOCALLY IFR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AT KSLK/KMPV. PRECIP SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 09-12Z
WITH MVFR CIGS TRENDING TO VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SLIGHTLY
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT - 06Z SUN...VFR/MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS VT.
06Z SUN - 18Z SUN...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
18Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z WED - 00Z THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE AFTERNOON -SHRA.

.MARINE...
AS OF 252 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AFTER 8PM LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 2-4 FEET DURING THIS EVENT.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MV
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...MV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

252 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ALONG WITH LIKELY
POPS. SHOWALTERS GO NEGATIVE AND PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.75".
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED IN ENHANCED WORDING AS NAM
CONTINUES TO INDICATED HIGH CAPE ACROSS THE AREA IN EXCESS OF
2500. STILL A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH CLEARING THAT WE WILL SEE. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BROUGHT THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH A BIT QUICKER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLEARING
AND RESULTING INCREASED INSTABILITY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA...THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PWATS
NEARING 2 INCHES WILL BE PLENTY REASON TO EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAIN
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THERE WILL ALSO BE DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WITH LOW LEVEL JET NEARBY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...NEARING 90 DEGREES AND HUMID. DECENT LAPSE RATES ON
SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY HIGH CAPES ONCE AGAIN MAY BE A SECOND
BUSY DAY FOR US.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS RAMP UP PRETTY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...A MODEST EML LAYER SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRONG STORMS EXISTS. PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN COMBINED WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STORMS ON
SATURDAY COULD RAISE SOME FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. MILD AND VERY
MUGGY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY TRICKY...BECAUSE ALTHOUGH
THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SHOWERS...SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE
LOWER 80S BEHIND THE FRONT.

DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. FLOW TURNS MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST
ALOFT WEDNESDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER THEN FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH VALLEY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE AND SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
ASSOCIATED PRECIP/SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SATURDAY, WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AREA-WIDE AND LOCALLY IFR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AT KSLK/KMPV. PRECIP SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 09-12Z
WITH MVFR CIGS TRENDING TO VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SLIGHTLY
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AFTER 8PM
LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 2-4 FEET DURING THIS EVENT.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MV
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...MV
MARINE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

151 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE AND SLOWLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
ASSOCIATED PRECIP/SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SATURDAY, WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AREA-WIDE AND LOCALLY IFR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AT KSLK/KMPV. PRECIP SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 09-12Z
WITH MVFR CIGS TRENDING TO VFR BY 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SLIGHTLY
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MV
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...LAHIFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

139 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AT MPV WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNSHINE
TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
00Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MV
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1120 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE CREATING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM FRIDAY...STRONG CAP AT 700 MB AND DEEP...DRY AND
SUBSIDENT NW FLOW SHOULD MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...ALONG
THE SEABREEZE A STRAY SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING.

CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOW THAT A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WHILE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMO...WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAST
AND LOWER 90S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY SEASONAL OR
ABOVE...RUNNING IN LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE WKND AS
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EXPANDS NORTHEAST.
INITIALLY THIS CREATES HOT BUT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AS THE MID-
LEVELS REMAIN DRY BENEATH SUBSIDENT FLOW...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
DISPLACED WELL WEST OF THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IS BASICALLY NIL (IN FACT SUNDAY MAY BE A BIT HOTTER THAN
SATURDAY) CONVECTION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THIS FEATURE COMBINING WITH...OR
ENHANCING...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. WE WILL BE LOSING INSTABILITY AND
HEATING BY THAT TIME...BUT WILL BUMP POP TO MDT/HIGH CHC ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...DRY MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE RETURNS...SO ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL TSTMS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM ABOUT 19C SATURDAY...UP TO 21C ON
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL
ALLOW THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE INTO THE 90S...EVEN AT THE BEACHES.
SOME UPR 90S ARE POSSIBLE INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JULY...72-75 SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 74-78
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS 2/3 OF THE NATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION...SO MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCALLY WILL BE
W/NW. THE AIRMASS COMING INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
ORIGINATES ACROSS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THEN ADVECTS AROUND THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS DRIVES TREMENDOUSLY WARM 850MB
AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 24C...ALTHOUGH THE COOLER
ECMWF KEEPING TEMPS TO 22C AT THAT LEVEL. THE GFS HAS PERFORMED
BETTER WITH THE BIG HEAT THIS SUMMER HOWEVER...AND IS PREFERRED.
THIS WILL DRIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S EVEN AT THE COAST...WITH 100
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING TO INLAND ZONES. LOWS AT NIGHT
WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW 80. FORCING DURING THIS TIME IS
LIMITED AS WELL...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL MEXICAN EML AND VERY
HOT/UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT
DOWN INTO THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE STAYS
TO THE WEST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BOUNDARY WILL DRAG THIS FAR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WELL OUT OF SEASON. FOR
NOW WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE MORNING STARTS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KFLO AND KMYR
WITH STRATUS AT 600 TO 700 FEET. THIS WILL LIFT BETWEEN 13 AND 14
UTC AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 10 UTC HRRR MODEL ONLY SHOWS WEAK ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES AFTER 19 UTC BUT
SINCE THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A BIAS FOR OVERDEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL
NOT INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING LATER TODAY THERE IS
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISION MAINLY AT THE
INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 08 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM FRIDAY...NE TO E WINDS WILL BECOME SE TONIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS OF
2 TO 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BUT THESE QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT ON SATURDAY...LESS THAN 10 KT...BUT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LIKELY WILL STALL
WEST OF THE WATERS SO NOW FURTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED...BUT THE
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 KT LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE THEY EASE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL
BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT AND VARYING
WINDS...RISING TO 3 FT SUNDAY THANKS TO AN INCREASING 5 SEC SW
WIND WAVE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CONSTANT...SEAS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THANKS TO THE DURATION OF
THIS CONSTANT SW FETCH. SEAS OF AROUND 3 FT MONDAY WILL RISE TO 4
FT TUESDAY...WITH THE 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP DOMINATING THE SPECTRUM.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

738 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE CREATING SEASONABLE TEMPS LOCALLY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOW THAT A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WHILE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE LESS OF A POSSIBILITY THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
A DEEPLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT AND A GENERALLY
SUBSIDENT REGIME WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO INITIATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AT BEST DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE
NORTHWARD-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR POSSIBLY SOME SPOT SHOWERS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO...WITH UPPER 80S AT
THE COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILARLY
SEASONAL OR ABOVE...RUNNING IN LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE MORNING STARTS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KFLO AND
KMYR WITH STRATUS AT 600 TO 700 FEET. THIS WILL LIFT BETWEEN 13
AND 14 UTC AND VFR CONDTIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 10 UTC HRRR MODEL ONLY SHOWS WEAK
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES AFTER 19
UTC BUT SINCE THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A BIAS FOR OVERDEVELOPING
CONVECTION WILL NOT INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING LATER TODAY THERE IS
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISION MAINLY AT THE
INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 08 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GENERALLY NE TO EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SEAS STAYING IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BUT THESE QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT ON SATURDAY...LESS THAN 10 KTS...BUT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LIKELY WILL STALL WEST
OF THE WATERS SO NOW FURTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED...BUT THE
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE THEY EASE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 2 FT SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS...RISING TO
3 FT SUNDAY THANKS TO AN INCREASING 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CONSTANT...SEAS
WILL SLOWLY BUILD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THANKS TO THE DURATION OF
THIS CONSTANT SW FETCH. SEAS OF AROUND 3 FT MONDAY WILL RISE TO 4 FT
TUESDAY...WITH THE 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP DOMINATING THE SPECTRUM.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...REK/CRM
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HAWKINS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1206 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LEADING TO INCREASING MUCAPE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL VERY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE
AREAS ADJACENT.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV ALONG WITH
A SFC TROUGH GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA...PUSHING EAST. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
WEST WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
THERE. REDEVELOPMENT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE SUGGESTING A STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. UTILIZED A TIME
LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY WHICH HAS A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. THE SEVERE CONVECTION
POTENTIAL REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE MORNING
CONVECTION.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18Z.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 60S
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. 00Z NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG
OVER DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES BY 21Z. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE
COUPLED WITH 45-50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...SUGGESTING A
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE
EARLY WITH NEARLY PERPENDICULAR CROSSOVER VECTORS FROM 850-500 MB.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREATS...BUT
THERE MAY BE A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST...AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS BY 00Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
JET KICKS IN. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
WHETHER EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER CAN LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

AS THE SEVERE THREAT BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A BREEZY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AN ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA ON SATURDAY IS FORECAST BY THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
FOR THESE AREAS. GIVEN GOOD POST COLD FRONTAL MIXING AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A POSSIBLE
TRANSITION TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THIS WOULD SUPPORT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND SPORADIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY AT THESE TIME RANGES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE INTO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE FRONT SOUTHEAST BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE SEVERE THREAT BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A BREEZY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

947 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT TO BEGIN AFTER 19Z AFTER HEATING HAS WARMED THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY...AND WE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HRRR INDICATED THE BEST THREAT
IN THE SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL OVERLAP THE
MOST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
ACROSS MANY RECENTLY WETTED AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RRV. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A DEEPENING CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASK
SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRESENTLY MOVING FROM
THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROF...IN EASTERN MT...AND IS PRESSING
INTO WESTERN ND. THAT DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
ND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND NORTHERN MN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

WITH THAT...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO EASTERN ND MIDDAY AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
200. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEASTERN ND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HWY 200...CAN
EXPECT A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO OCCUR. THIS
SHOULD INTENSIFY A SFC LOW PRESSURE TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THAT
AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDAFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS A MAIN THREAT...WHILE ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD AND
ALLOW FOR MORE SETTLED WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON
SATURDAY... SO ITS PROXIMITY SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND MILD...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. CONSENSUS MODELS
HAVE H5 TROF SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA WITH A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY ...WITH UPR FLOW PATTERN OUT OF
WEST NORTHWEST. NAM HAS A SHORTWAVE TROF KICKING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAS KEPT THE
RED RIVE BASIN DRY.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OUT ON A RATHER QUIET
NOTE UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...DEPENDING ON TIMING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN BY THE MID AND LATTER PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SOMETIME AROUND
WED/THUR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH
13Z...WITH FOG DISSIPATING RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. INCREASING MID
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE FORENOON INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN... WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THERE
MIDDAY. STRING TO SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN ND
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND LEAN INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST FROM
EARLY INTO LATE EVENING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

641 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE SEVERE THREAT BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A BREEZY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS TO KJMS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL OTHER SITES THROUGH THE 12Z FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE FRONT BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. TWEAKED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM
MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA. SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WEAK WAVE MOVING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND...BECOMING ISOLATED AS YOU HEAD
FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY ALOFT...HAVE EXTENDED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...COVERING A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE HINTING AT A LINE OF CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. THINK THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MINIMAL BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
TRACKS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MORNING. THIS IS CURRENTLY
COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE EXTENDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 03Z. LAST SHIFT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FAR NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WERE TRACKING
THROUGH DIVIDE COUNTY. A BETTER CHANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH
COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
ALBERTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESSION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION...AND
SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE BY EVENING.
STRONGEST INSTABILITY (~2 KJ/KG) REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH RATHER WEAK SHEAR. THEREFORE...EXPECT THEIR
COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
WEAK RIDGING PASSES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TO BRING A
BRIEF QUIET PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN
BRINGING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR AREA AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES
ITS PROGRESSION. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE TO THE EAST. ONLY AREA WITH
POTENTIAL SEVERE CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE LOWER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE NOTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY PUSHING INTO THE
70S...WITH 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING. CHANCES DECREASE TOWARD 06Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD QUICKLY THEREAFTER. AS THIS HAPPENS...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE NEXT UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS/LIFT RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BORDER. HENCE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. A NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE CONTROL SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...A COLD
FRONT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH. SUPERBLEND GIVES
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATER IN THE WEEK. APPEARS THERE
WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NIGHTTIME CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOP. A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD MAY
BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY ONWARD...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BECOME DOMINANT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA FROM EASTERN
MONTANA...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 08Z. EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1134 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(PLUS MANY AREAS WITH AMPLE RAINFALL). HRRR INDICATES MOST
LOCATIONS MAY DEVELOP FOG...LIKELY DENSE AT TIMES. NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THE DENSE FOG WILL BE...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
IF CONDITIONS UNFOLD AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS. FOR NOW...ADDED PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE CAM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE
CONSISTENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL LEAN ON THE GFS THEREAFTER WITH BETTER SHEAR AROUND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE
SOUTH AND 500-1000J/KG NORTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
STEEP IN THE NORTH...AND A BIT BETTER SOUTH. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
PLENTY OF CLOUDS/PRECIP THAT HAS HINDERED WARMING WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS AROUND 80. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW WHERE AREAS HEAT OUT SOME
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE BEST THREAT IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

ON FRIDAY...A SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER AROUND 00Z...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK NEAR THE SOUTH FA AND
MARGINAL RISK TO THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE MORE HEATING ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH MORE SHEAR...SO POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CLOSE OR INTO THE FA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 45-50KT LLJ
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MN COUNTIES...SO SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

ON SATURDAY...MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTH AND EAST BY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY SAT AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. IT COULD GET A BIT
BREEZY FROM THE W/NW SAT AFTERNOON WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW 1
INCH.

FOR SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN SAT.
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

FOR SUN THROUGH THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH NRN MINNESOTA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVE GIVING A LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. MAINLY DRY AGAIN
TUESDAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS DUE WED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR T-STORMS AT THAT TIME. TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS
OF FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KTVF ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM...WHICH IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES (MOST LIKELY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST). FOR
KGFK...KFAR...KBJI...DID NOT GO TOO LOW WITH VSBY AS COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF NEEDED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

815 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND COOLS AND
DRIES THE AIRMASS ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES THAT
ARE FELT DURING THE WEEKEND. GIVEN AN EXTREMELY WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL VERY DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST - AS MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
MIGHTILY WITH THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY SHEARED...AND WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS MAINTAINED
ITSELF INTO NWRN OHIO AND IS BEING WATCHED FOR GROWTH/DEVELOPMENT
ON PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG
ENTRENCHED OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA VIA DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING/AROUND 90F. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR
/0-6KM BULK SHEAR ABOUT 20KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR FROM 10 TO
15KTS/...THERE IS CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FOR STORMS TO GROW
UPSCALE ON COLD-POOL BALANCED SYSTEM WITH INSTBY /DCAPE TO 1500
J/KG/ COMPENSATING FOR LACK OF SHEAR. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WOULD
SEEM A EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS MAY AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

ALSO A COMPLICATING FACTOR...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE MCV EMINTATING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPARK N-S BAND OF LOOSELY
ORGANIZED STORMS OVER INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING.

LASTLY...SOME INDICATIONS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE OF A
LATE NIGHT MCS/BOW ECHO MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN HRRR INABILITY TO PROPERLY
HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND VERY POOR HANDLING OF LAST NIGHT/S
WEAKLY FORCED ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL RUN WITH STORM CHANCES MOST
AREAS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT AND UPDATE
ACCORDINGLY AS OPPORTUNITIES PRESENT TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

A VERY HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED /ASSUMING MCS COLD POOLS REMAIN
LOCALIZED/ WITH SOME RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS POSSIBLE IN THE
METRO AREAS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES ALL NIGHT FOR URBAN
AREAS OF HAMILTON COUNTY...AND HEAT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WILL COME
DOWN BY SUNSET.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ANY REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY /LOW CONFIDENCE HERE/ THAT IS
STILL AROUND ON SUNDAY MORNING TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFF AND WEAKEN
LEAVING ANOTHER VERY WARM/HUMID DAY ON TAP. DEW POINTS WILL RALLY
BACK INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY. THINK TEMPS
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
EXPECTED...AND MAY BE MORE SO IF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM MCS
ACTIVITY IS APPRECIABLE. THUS...DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE EXTENDING
HEAT ADVISORY BEYOND EXTREME SW OHIO...SERN INDIANA...AND NRN KY
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY PLACED. HEAT INDICES AREA-WIDE THOUGH WILL
BE 95-100F AND HIGHEST IN THE ADVISORY AREA /LOW 100S LIKELY/.
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH/EAST A BIT IF BETTER
INSOLATION THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED DEVELOPS.

CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE BY 18Z ACROSS NRN OH BACK INTO INDIANA
AND SINK SSE INTO THE AREA. PRETTY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE OF A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF STORMS AMIDST STRONG INSTBY BUT
AGAIN MODEST TO MARGINAL SHEAR. WIND DAMAGE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
BUT 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS...WHILE IN GOOD ORIENTATION TO THE
FORCING...ARE A LITTLE WEAK IN MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER LIKE RECENT
DAYS...EXTREME INSTBY/DCAPE MAY AUGMENT. MAY ALSO BE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT GIVEN ORIENTATION OF LINE BUT STORMS SHOULD PROPOGATE TO
SOME DEGREE SO WILL HOLD ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. EXPECT
LINE TO SETTLE THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING
WITH SKIES TURNING CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY IN ITS WAKE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MONDAY
MORNING WHERE IT WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY DURING THE DAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY MEANS
THAT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TO BE KEPT INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM-
WRF AND ECMWF FOR TIMING OF NEXT S/WV ENERGY IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. AS S/WV ENERGY DIGS EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THAT THREAT
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PCPN
THREAT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MID LEVEL RIDGE TRIES
TO REASSERT ITSELF NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WE WILL REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY
POP A DIURNAL SHOWER OR STORM.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER INTO SATURDAY BUT BY THAT TIME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY ARRIVE BY THEN OR SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MAINLY TYPICAL JULY READINGS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS IN VCNTY OF KILN ARE DROPPING SE AND WILL AFFECT IT
FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE LINE
OF STORMS IN ERN INDIANA WILL WORK EWD ACROSS INTO KDAY TAFS BY
01Z. AT THIS TIME DONT THINK THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT
KCMH/KLCK.

SKIES SHOULD GO SCATTERED AFTER THE CONVECTION DIES DOWN. COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FOG AT THE TAFS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...SO HAVE VCTS AT ALL THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ070-071-078.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>096.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

207 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED S/WV ASSOC WITH A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO
THE EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATES THAT SOME CONVERGENCE IS STILL OCCUR ACRS OUR NW ZONES
AND EXTENDING INTO INDIANA...MOST LIKELY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
CONVECTION HERE SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED BY AFTERNOON AND MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. ELSEWHERE...LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
PERHAPS A POP UP SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
THUS...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NW AND THE LEAST IN THE SE.

WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S NORTH AND EAST...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. OUR SW CWFA...INCLUDING THE DAYTON AND CINCINNATI
METRO AREAS...HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE. GIVEN THAT WE HAVE NOT HAD
REALLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THIS SUMMER...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST HRRR RUN SUGGESTS THAT EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN
COVERAGE BUT SHOW A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
FORCING TO BREAK WEAK CAPPING AND TAP SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY.

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAKE
ITS FURTHEST NORTHWARD ENCROACHMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN OVER A MONTH. IN ADDITION...DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE
100 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO GET SUPPRESSED ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY WITH SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS
PREFERRED. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE JUST A BIT LOWER IN NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT EXPECT SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TO BE JUST AS WARM AS SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR ABOVE 100 AGAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

SPECIAL HEAT CRITERIA FOR HAMILTON COUNTY NECESSITATES A HEAT
WATCH/WARNING IF THE HEAT INDEX IS 100 OR GREATER FOR AT LEAST TWO
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. IF FORECAST CONTINUES AS IS THEN THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL LIKELY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AND IN THE
SOUTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE WEEK. THE GFS
KEEPS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH BUT SEEMS TO OVERDEVELOP A WAVE THAT
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DRIVES THE BOUNDARY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS AMBITIOUS. HAVE OPTED TO
ONLY TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WAS TRYING TO PIVOT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
STILL OCCURRING IN ITS VICINITY NEAR THE KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE AND PROPAGATE. SATELLITE
AND RADAR INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS INDIANA ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF THESE
CAN GET GOING IN A MARGINAL SHEAR DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT
FAIRLY HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THEN THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNSET. EXCEPT FOR CURRENT STORMS AT KCMH AT THIS ISSUANCE...STILL
DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO PUT TEMPO GROUPS WITH TSRA AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES. WILL STICK WITH VCTS/CB FOR NOW AND MONITOR
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL RELAX AND DECOUPLE. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE POCKETS OF MVFR MIST AT SOME TERMINALS WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK.

ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL POKE NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. AM NOT SEEING ANY REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. THUS...FEEL
ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...DISORGANIZED...AND
AROUND THE 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY. THIS IS TOO SMALL TO PLACE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ077.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1116 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
FORCING TO BREAK WEAK CAPPING AND TAP SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE WEEK. THE GFS
KEEPS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH BUT SEEMS TO OVERDEVELOP A WAVE THAT
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DRIVES THE BOUNDARY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS AMBITIOUS. HAVE OPTED TO
ONLY TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. AM EXPECTING SHRA TO GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COULD BE CLOSE TO
KCMH/KLCK.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BACK EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. NORTHERN TAF SITES LOOK TO HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES...AND WILL INTRODUCE VCTS FOR ALL SITES BUT
KCVG/KLUK FOR THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...MVFR VIS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ077.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BPP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

122 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND PULL A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US...DRAWING UP HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
ACROSS OHIO. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OTHER THAN A FEW POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF MILLERSBURG...FIRST PUSH OF RAIN HAS DISSIPATED
LEAVING BAND OF MID CLOUDS. MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NRN IL AND THIS
WILL SPREAD OUT WHILE PUSHING EAST. SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS SEEM
SLOW TO GET THIS PRECIP INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE RAP WHICH
DOES NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 13Z.
LIKE THE FASTER HRRR MORE. WILL STAY WITH PLAN TO START RAMPING UP
POPS IN THE NW AFTER 06Z TO BE 50 TO 60% FROM 09Z TO 12Z.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE WEST WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE INLAND EAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER...SO FAR...ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TRAILING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE NEARER TO THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AND PRIMARILY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY SNEAK INTO NWRN OHIO. AS THE LOW PULLS INTO
CANADA...SO WILL THE MOISTURE...SO EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE LESS
IN THE EAST...WITH PERHAPS ERIE BEING THE EXCEPTION GIVEN ITS
HIGHER LATITUDE. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 80`S AND DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
60`S AND LOW 70`S...LENDING ITSELF TO ABUNDANT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...AND IN TURN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS AND COULD CAUSE AREAS OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO EXCEED
1.90 IN MANY LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SUMMERTIME CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
FRIDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM. THESE
STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR THE MOST PART. SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES END UP BEING BETTER CARE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. MONDAY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN
FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY...AND MOST HAVE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THE DAY BUT STILL KEPT A SMALL CHANCE
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO PUSH TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...
GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE ERIE TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.

MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A SECONDARY FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WEAK FRONTS THAT COME THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THIS TIME OF YEAR OFTEN END UP BEING DRY. WILL NOT INTRODUCE SHOWERS
BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK. THE RETURN SOUTH FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION COULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING
RETURNS OVER NW OHIO. A LOT OF THIS IS PROBABLY VIRGA GIVEN HOW
DRY IT IS IN LOW LEVELS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
RETURNS OVER NE INDIANA TO REACH THE AREA BEFORE THERE IS A
LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. WILL GIVE THE
WESTERN SITES A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT. NO THUNDER
FOR NOW. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS PRECIP CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY.
IT APPEARS THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOT OF THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THERE IS
TODAY SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AERIAL EXTENT IS LOW. WILL GIVE
ALL SITES EITHER A TEMPO OR PROB MENTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE FASTEST. LIGHT SE FLOW WILL BECOME S TO
SW THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN SHRA AND TSRA FRI THRU MON ALONG
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG SAT THRU MON.

.MARINE...
THE EASTERLY WIND WITH A BIT OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP WAVES
RUNNING A FOOT OR TWO THIS EVENING ON LAKE ERIE BUT IN GENERAL...THE
GRADIENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND MARINERS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL BRUSH THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. WINDS
SEEM AS THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1156 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT KBVO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE TROUGH LIES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG IT OVER SOUTHWEST
KS. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT US GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP ACTIVITY...MOST
LIKELY HIGH BASED...WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND
EVENTUALLY DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST OK. THIS AGREES WELL WITH GOING
FORECAST.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT KBVO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
THE TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS LARGE UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF CO/AZ
TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN NOSE OF
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HEAT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CLIMB INTO THE 105-110
DEGREE RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING THIS
TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

600 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...
ALL CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND INTO WESTERN OHIO HAS DISSIPATED. NEXT
FORCING DOES NOT COME ALONG FOR 3-5 MORE HOURS WHEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO PA FROM THE WEST. CURRENT RADAR OVER NW OHIO
DEPICTS A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WHERE THE FORCING MAY BE
GREATEST AT THIS TIME. MORE STORMS ARE FORMING BACK IN FAR LWR MI.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE M70S IN C OH...AND ARE CLIMBING INTO THE U60S
HERE. HAVE DIPPED POPS INITIALLY THIS EVENING...THEN BROUGHT THEM
BACK TO THE GOING FCST FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING -
GENERALLY ISOLD/SCT POPS. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THAT AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM THE W/NW. WILL TRY SOME ROUGH TIMING TO
CAPTURE THAT FEATURE.

PREV...
MOISTURE FLOWING RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOTICEABLE STICKINESS RETURNING AS DEWPOINTS RISE THROUGH THE 60S
THROUGHOUT. BROAD MCV LIFTING ACROSS THE FINGERLAKES REGION AND
LAKE ONTARIO IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTH OF THE PA/NY
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG AN
UPPER SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS INTO WEST CENTRAL PA. SHOWERS ALONG
THIS SOUTHERN FLANK HAVE BEEN WEAKENING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MUCH AS THE HRRR DEPICTED. STILL... EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT
SHRA TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND THEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

OTHERWISE...LOTS OF MID LEVEL DEBRIS FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
OVER OHIO IS KEEPING MY FAR NORTHWEST NEARLY OVERCAST...WHILE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE DISTRIBUTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL PA. AS THE SHEAR AXIS CROSSES CENTRAL PA AND EXITS TO
THE EAST BY 04Z...WE SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGHOUT. SOME
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AFT 04Z AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO FROM THE EASTERN GLAKS. NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT WITH A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN THOSE
RECENTLY...WITH MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE M/U60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH
RIDGING ALOFT COUNTERACTING THE POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION OF
INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND HEAT. STILL SHOULD SEE ISOLD TO LCLLY
SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WITH
NO SHEAR TO ORGANIZE...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. JUST
ANOTHER NON-DRY DAY TO ADD TO THE PILE WE`VE ACCUMULATED THIS
SUMMER. HEATING OF VERY WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR
SHIELD MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN...BUT AGAIN TRIGGER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF LEE
TROF OVER SOUTHEAST PA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
INITIATION OTHER THAN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES. IF INSTABILITY CAN
BE RELEASED...MODERATE CAPES AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR IN MDL DATA
DOES YIELD A LOW END THREAT OF ISOLD PULSE TYPE SVR STORMS.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN VICINITY OF
THE LEE TROF. SPC HAS US IN GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR DAY 2.
WESTERN AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS OF 85 TO 90. THIS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S
WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY...AS 850HPA TEMPS RISE TO +2SD BY SUNDAY AFTN. AS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO CLIMB...HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 100F /BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/ IN THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SUNDAY AFTN.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL PA SUN NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WX.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE /SLIGHTLY/ COOLER AND THERE WILL
BE A RESPITE FROM THE MUGGINESS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK...BEHIND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SIGHTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

CU FIELD WILL BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH PERIODS OF BKN
ALTO CU ACRS WRN PENN...AS INCREASING WARMTH AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL
STAY VFR...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AND BRIEF MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW
TSRA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...ISOLD LATE PM AND NIGHTTIME TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...SCT...MAINLY PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

MON...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...IMPROVING CONDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBFD OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE LONG-LINE DUE TO AN FAA COMMS
PROBLEM.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/TYBURSKI
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

332 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE FLOWING RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NOTICEABLE STICKINESS RETURNING AS DEWPOINTS RISE
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGHOUT. BROAD MCV LIFTING ACROSS THE
FINGERLAKES REGION AND LAKE ONTARIO IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TRAILING
LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS INTO WEST
CENTRAL PA. SHOWERS ALONG THIS SOUTHERN FLANK HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MUCH AS THE HRRR DEPICTED. STILL...
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT SHRA TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND THEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS OF 85 TO 90. THIS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S
WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK...BEHIND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SIGHTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...ISOLD LATE PM AND NIGHTTIME TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...SCT...MAINLY PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

MON...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...IMPROVING CONDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBFD OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE LONG-LINE DUE TO AN FAA COMMS
PROBLEM.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/TYBURSKI
EQUIPMENT...CTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

248 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE FLOWING RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NOTICEABLE STICKINESS RETURNING AS DEWPOINTS RISE
THROUGH THE 60S THROUGHOUT. BROAD MCV LIFTING ACROSS THE
FINGERLAKES REGION AND LAKE ONTARIO IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TRAILING
LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS INTO WEST
CENTRAL PA. SHOWERS ALONG THIS SOUTHERN FLANK HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MUCH AS THE HRRR DEPICTED. STILL...
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT SHRA TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND THEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH
RIDGING ALOFT COUNTERACTING THE POTENTIAL DESTABLIZATION OF
INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND HEAT. STILL SHOULD SEE ISOLD TO LCLLY
SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WITH
NO SHEAR TO ORGANIZE...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. JUST
ANOTHER NON-DRY DAY TO ADD TO THE PILE WE`VE ACCUMULATED THIS
SUMMER. HEATING OF VERY WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR
SHIELD MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN...BUT AGAIN TRIGGER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF LEE
TROF OVER SOUTHEAST PA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
INITIATION OTHER THAN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES. IF INSABILITY CAN BE
RELEASED...MODERATE CAPES AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR IN MDL DATA
DOES YIELD A LOW END THREAT OF ISOLD PULSE TYPE SVR STORMS.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN VICINITY OF
THE LEE TROF. SPC HAS US IN GENERAL THUNDER AREA FOR DAY 2.
WESTERN AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS OF 85 TO 90. THIS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S
WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY YET OF THE SUMMER COMING SUNDAY. CENTRAL
PA IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR /JULY 11-20/
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMALS. MAX TEMPS IN THE
L/M90S...COMBINED WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY...WILL LIKELY PUSH
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ARND OR JUST OVER 100F ACROSS THE LWR SUSQ
VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT RISK
IN THE HWO. UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOC WARM MID LVL TEMPS
SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT OVR THE GRT LKS COULD BRING THE CHC OF LATE
DAY TSRA...MAINLY OVR THE W MTNS.

TWO NRN STREAM FRONTS SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR PCPN NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST WILL BE ON MONDAY...WITH A LOWER RISK ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID/LATE JULY CLIMATE
NORMALS.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SIGHTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...ISOLD LATE PM AND NIGHTTIME TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...SCT...MAINLY PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

MON...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...IMPROVING CONDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBFD OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE LONG-LINE DUE TO AN FAA COMMS
PROBLEM.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/TYBURSKI
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1104 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE MCV TRAVERSING ONTARIO ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
LATE THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING SHOWERS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE
FINGERLAKES REGION. FRACTURED LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM IT SSWD
ALONG UPPER SHEAR AXIS INTO A MUCH WARMER AND MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...WHERE A
SECOND CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS PROPOGATING. SLOWLY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS ONTARIO ACTIVITY...WHILE CONVECTION
OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY.

MID LEVEL DEBRIS FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS FILTERING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH SCT TO BKN COVERAGE. EXPECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE OVERALL AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY.
HI RES HRRR DEPICTS A NARROW CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND LIKELY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. ALL BUT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
COUNTIES OF MY CWA ARE IN GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK...WITH THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU IN MARGINAL AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SLOWLY
WEAKENING MCS. ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...PROXIMITY TO RETREATING
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRIDAY DESPITE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST NEEDED EARLY TODAY. PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...COMBINED WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA OVR THE W MTNS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO
THE SUSQ VALLEY BY EARLY SAT AM...AS LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS
PWATS MARCHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT ENSEMBLE DATA
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. APPROACH OF
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND A
MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN THOSE RECENTLY...WITH MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE M/U60S.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NE OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HEATING OF VERY
WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD MODERATE CAPES
BY AFTN. FOCUS OF PM CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN VICINITY OF LEE
TROUGH OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. MODERATE CAPES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
SHEAR IN MDL DATA IMPLIES A THREAT OF ISOLD PULSE-TYPE SVR STORMS.
BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT...WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES AND MAINTAIN JUST A CHC OF A PASSING TSRA FURTHER
WEST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES/CENTRAL MTNS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 85-90F...COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH HUMIDITY.

TWO NRN STREAM FRONTS SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR PCPN NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST WILL BE ON MONDAY...WITH A LOWER RISK ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID/LATE JULY CLIMATE
NORMALS.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SIGHTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...ISOLD LATE PM AND NIGHTTIME TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...SCT...MAINLY PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

MON...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...IMPROVING CONDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBFD OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE LONG-LINE DUE TO AN FAA COMMS
PROBLEM.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/TYBURSKI
EQUIPMENT...CTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

826 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THIS
WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MCS TRAVERSING MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GLAKS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WHILE CONVECTION ENTERING NORTHWEST OHIO IS FOR THE
TIME BEING MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY.

MID LEVEL DEBRIS FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS FILTERING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH SCT TO BKN COVERAGE. EXPECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE OVERALL AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MCS DECREASES AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. HI RES HRRR DEPICTS A NARROW
LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. ALL BUT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
COUNTIES OF MY CWA ARE IN GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK...WITH THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU IN MARGINAL AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SLOWLY
WEAKENING MCS. ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...PROXIMITY TO RETREATING
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRIDAY DESPITE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

TWO NRN STREAM FRONTS SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR PCPN NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST WILL BE ON MONDAY...WITH A LOWER RISK ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID/LATE JULY CLIMATE
NORMALS.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SIGHTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 HOURS. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER OHIO ARE DISSIPATING BUT MY BRING
A LIGHT SHOWER TO KBFD THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...ISOLD LATE PM AND NIGHTTIME TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SAT-SUN...SCT...MAINLY PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

MON...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE...IMPROVING CONDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBFD OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE LONG-LINE DUE TO AN FAA COMMS
PROBLEM.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/TYBURSKI
EQUIPMENT...CTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

1017 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN
IN PLACE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS HIGHER...SO THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...THERE IS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET LIFT OTHER THAN SURFACE HEATING...SO
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP DEPICTIONS OF SHOWERS IN
THAT AREA BETWEEN 20-00Z.

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

357 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN U.S. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
IN/OH THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS.
THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS...HINGING
MORE ON DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH AS OF
THIS WRITING HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE. THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY
THE GFS...AND SEVERAL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE PATTERN AND RECENT TREND OF THIS IN RECENT WEEKS.
THEREFORE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A REMNANT MCS/CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL DRIFT INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. NOT REALLY
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAKE IT EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST LIGHTNING/THUNDER SHOULD BE GONE BY THE
11Z-12Z TIME FRAME.

SATURDAYS FORECAST DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE ABOVE SCENARIO UNFOLDING
AS EXPECTED. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND EVEN LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LINGERING AT DAYBREAK AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH THE BETTER UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
SHIFTING INTO THE PIEDMONT/NC AREA BY AFTERNOON...SHOULD LEAVE THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA CLOUDY AND MAINLY CONVECTIVE FREE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PERHAPS ISOLATED DIURNAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WOULD EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGE OF MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS...AND IN AN AREA OF BETTER HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE
COULD POSSIBLE EVEN BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND
SPC DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE ANY AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR SUCH. ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN A PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT. ANY
CONVECTION WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL LIMIT COOLING WEST AND
LIKELY RADIATIONAL FOG AS WELL. WESTERN AREAS MAY REMAIN A TAD
COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT LATE
AFTERNOON BREAKS COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY. 850MB TEMPS HOVER NEAR +20C...OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PIEDMONT...SO THERE IS LITTLE COOLING TO BE HAD OTHER THAN CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION WILL BUILD
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM HUMID AIR UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
BE SOME OF THE WARMEST OUR AREA HAS EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO
THE 100F TO 105F RANGE BOTH DAY EAST OF A DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG
LINE...AND WE MAY BE ISSUING OUR FIRST HEAT ADVISORIES OF THE
YEAR. OVERNIGHTS WILL BE ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT PERHAPS WITH A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE SUNSET. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL...WITH CAPES RISING TO AROUND ~1500 J/KG...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON MONDAY HOWEVER DUE TO STRONGER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING
ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE FOR OUR AREA...LOOKING AT BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
DOWNDRAFTS. COMBINE THAT WITH CAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...AND ITS
LOOKING LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING SOMEWHERE OVER OR AROUND OUR AREA BY DAWN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT TO START TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT DRAPED AROUND OUR
AREA. LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAK WEST TO EAST PATTERN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS SUCH...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY THOSE WHICH DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MVFR STRATO-CU PRIMARILY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE
HANGING ON LATER INTO THE DAY THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE NOW...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
SOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. UNDER THIS FLOW...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GULF. GIVEN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
STILL CAN EXPECT A SCT-BKN LAYER.

POPS ARE VERY LOW AND WERE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR HOWEVER BASED ON
LATEST HRRR BEST POSSIBILITIES ARE JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS FOR A POTENTIAL REMNANT MCS TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN A GREATLY DIMINISHED
FASHION...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...NAMELY BLF/LWB. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.

FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT QUESTIONABLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM MCS AND/OR DEBRIS SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WOULD BE LESS OF AN EFFECT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT T/TD
SPREAD FROM A HOT AFTERNOON SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST ADVERTISED MVFR AT LWB...BUT
BCB/LYH COULD SEE MVFR BR AS WELL.

LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...FOR THE MOST
PART 5KTS OR LESS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT TSRA POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

REMNANT MCS OR ASSOCIATED DEBRIS LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. THUS...EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM LIKELY TO BEGIN THE DAY. THIS WILL
BECOME IMPORTANT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE REGENERATION
OF CONVECTIONON THE PERIPHERAL BOUNDARY AND/OR IN AREAS OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MODELS HINT THAT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG OR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN NC...THEN DRIFT SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING. SUN APPEARS TO BRING A MINIMUM IN CONVECTION
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING. MON SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
AGAIN...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION IN A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWEST
FLOW. OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW
CLOUDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS/NF
AVIATION...JH/JR/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

134 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRING A RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE LATER TODAY AS WELL AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WEAK RESIDUAL WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN FOR A
WHILE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN
MORE SOUTH/SW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE A SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS THE WEAK WARM FRONT TO THE SW EDGES SLOWLY NE TOWARD THE
SW MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WILL AGAIN INIT
WITH A MIX OF LOWER CLOUDS ESPCLY ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
THESE GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST PERIODS OF SUN WITH HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN LOOK TO BE TIED TO OROGRAPHICS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY LIKELY A BIT
BETTER. HOWEVER DESPITE LINGERING HIGH 85H THETA-E OVER THE WEST...MODELS
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED WITH SHRA/TSRA AGAIN TODAY GIVEN LACK OF MUCH
FORCING UNDER WEAK FLOW AND LINGERING CAPPED DRY AIR ALOFT. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS GOING MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR POP UP SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LITTLE POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST
OVERALL PER LATEST HRRR TRENDS. WITH CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT AND
MORE SOUTH/SW FLOW EXPECT TEMPS TO GET A LITTLE MORE OF A BOOST BUT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR READINGS TO JUMP PENDING EARLY CLOUDS. WITH
MOS LOCKED IN ON UNIFORM MID/UPPER 80S WONT ADJUST MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES FOR NOW.

MOISTURE DEPTH ALONG WITH BETTER FOCUS AND CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN LAKES DIPS SE WHILE THE FAINT WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTH.
THIS COULD PROVIDE A CORRIDOR FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SLIDE SE INTO
WEST VA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME LATE NIGHT REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
UNDER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW SLOPES. FORECAST
INSTABILITY ALSO LINGERS OVERNIGHT UNDER WEAK DIFFLUENCE SO
BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGHER CHANCE NW THIRD MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHILE SPILLING SOME COVERAGE OUT INTO THE NE SECTIONS ALONG THE
PASSING WARM FRONT LATE. SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SW
WHERE WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT BEST. OTRW PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE MUGGY UNDER MOISTENING DEWPOINTS...AND LOWS
THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE WARM UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OVERALL.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT FRIDAY...

ANY LINGER INFLUENCES OF A WEAK WEDGE OVER THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...A LEE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH...WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FADE WITH LOSE OF HEATING EACH
EVENING. HOWEVER...LINGERING INSTABILITIES AND HEAT COULD KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH MID TO UPPER 80S WEST
TO LOWER TO MID 90S EAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINS A BROAD RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH AND ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. TROFFING MAY BE
STARTING TO AMPLIFY IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING IN
THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ENSEMBLE GFS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWED FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MVFR STRATO-CU PRIMARILY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE
HANGING ON LATER INTO THE DAY THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE NOW...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
SOON.

LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...FOR THE MOST
PART 5KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

REMNANT MCS OR ASSOCIATED DEBRIS LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. THUS...EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM LIKELY TO BEGIN THE DAY. THIS WILL
BECOME IMPORTANT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE REGENERATIONCONVECTION
ON THE PERIPHERAL BOUNDARY AND/OR IN AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. MODELS HINT THAT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG OR
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN NC...THEN DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE
EVENING. SUN APPEARS TO BRING A MINIMUM IN CONVECTION WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING. MON SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
AGAIN...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSUR RIDING THROUGH THE REGION IN A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWEST
FLOW. OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW
CLOUDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JR/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

708 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT FRIDAY...

BANDS OF MVFR STRATO-CU CONTINUE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IFR UNDER PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG IN
SPOTS LIKE KLYH/KDAN THAT SAW EARLIER CLEAR SKIES.

THIS TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO MID/LATE MORNING AND MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
TO MIX OUT LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
EAST. APPEARS MOST SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
GIVEN MOISTURE/HEATING STILL EXPECTING A 4-6K FT SCTD-BKN LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE GREATER
RETURN OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. MOST CONVECTION WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. POP VALUES ARE LOW...SO LEFT OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THAT MAY NEED
AMENDING AS WE ENTER INTO THE 12Z/18Z TAF FCST PERIOD TOMORROW
BASED ON SHORT- RANGE MODEL + RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

WIDELY SCATTERED MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
BOUNDARY MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THE CONVECTION.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/NF/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

306 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SEEING STRATO-CU ONCE AGAIN FILL IN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT
AS WEAK SOUTH/SE FLOW IS LIFTED OVER THE WEAK WEDGE AND UNDER THE
INVERSION ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS BASES LOWER AND THE CANOPY SPILLS BACK EAST LATE WITH
THE FLOW TURNING A BIT MORE SW TOWARD DAWN. HOWEVER THINK OVERALL
WILL SEE CIGS STAY AT LOW END VFR LEVELS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
ESPCLY EAST WHERE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH.
FOG FORMATION REMAINS IFFY GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
AND SE FLOW. APPEARS FOG MAY DEVELOP DUE TO STRATUS PER LOWER CIGS
ACROSS THE WEST WHILE IF ANY CLEARING DOES DEVELOP THEN MAY SEE
KLWB/KBCB TREND DOWN INTO MVFR/IFR VSBYS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT SO EDGED FORECAST VSBYS UP A NOTCH. ELSW SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN BUT THINK MIXING
AND LACK OF UPSLOPE AT KBLF SHOULD ALLOW LESS FOG THERE THAN SEEN
IN PAST OVERNIGHTS.

TRAPPED LOWER CIGS INCLUDING SOME FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO MIX OUT LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST. APPEARS MOST
SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN
MOISTURE/HEATING STILL EXPECTING A 4-6K FT SCTD-BKN LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WILL SEE GREATER
RETURN OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES OF POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. MOST CONVECTION WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. POP VALUES ARE SO LOW...LEFT OUT ANY
CONVECTIVE MENTION IN THE TAFS. THAT MAY NEED AMENDING AS WE
ENTER INTO THE 12Z/18Z TAF FCST PERIOD TOMORROW BASED ON SHORT-
RANGE MODEL + RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
HAVE SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...AND GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT. OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/NF/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

109 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO FRIDAY. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRING A RETURN
OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATER FRIDAY AS WELL AS WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT THURSDAY...

NOT SEEING ANY OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF SHOWERS ON RADAR OR IN
OBS...AND THE 18Z/00Z NAM WILL NOT BE USED AS IT HAD CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES PER QPF FIELD BULLSEYES.

WILL SEE THE CLOUD COVER NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EXPAND OVERNIGHT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE VA/NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER WRN SLOPES OF SE WV. MSAS SHOWING LOWER
DEWPOINTS STREAMING SWD TOWARD THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
LYH ALREADY WITH UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS...COMPARED TO MID 60S IN THE
SOUTH. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA. WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
GREATEST WILL BE STEADYING OUT OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE
CONFINED TO VERY LIGHT EARLY OVER THE NC MTNS...SO OVERALL KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE MTNS AND SOME OF THE WRN
VALLEYS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER OCCURS. FURTHER EAST HAVE ADDED FOG
AS WELL AS RAP AND GFS SHOWING THAT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE
NEAR ZERO...THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT FOG TO CLOSER TO THE BLUE
RIDGE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
GULF COAST REGION BUILDS EASTWARD GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
FACTOR THAT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALLOW FOR STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...AND WE CAN EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINNING ITS RETURN ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW INCREASE IN 850
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VALUES FORECAST AROUND +22
IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY.

EXPECT THERE WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL/APPALACHIAN LEE TROF ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS TROF WILL CREATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MORE
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY. FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH OF A CAP TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

PRESENCE OF A LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...FURTHER WARMING THE AIR. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/JM/NF/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

902 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
COULD BE PATCHY FOG BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
TROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY IFR FOG BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THE LAST OF A SMALL MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE 18.18Z HRRR IS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ONCE
THIS MCS MOVES OUT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHWEST
BY DAWN. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SPARK A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GONE BY LATER
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVING THROUGH. LOWS SHOULD FEEL
MORE REFRESHING THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE NAM IS
BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE AS USUAL. FOR NOW WILL CARRY CHCY POPS WITH
THIS POSITIVE TILT SYSTEM.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

REFRESHING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW
POINTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS DRY THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK RAISING A SMALL THREAT...AT LEAST AT THIS
TIME...FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS PLENTY OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT SO STAY TUNED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS
LINE WILL AFFECT THE MKE AND ENW TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY CHANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR AS THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD DRY UP ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVES OUT.
EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER OVERNIGHT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

MARINE...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS AS THIS LINE
MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE COOL FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
WYOMING AT THIS HOUR. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PARALLEL I80 BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH TSTORMS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 06Z HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME STRONGER CELLS BY 20Z. MODELS SHOW THIS COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO COLORADO BY THIS EVENING...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
WELL DUE TO 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE TSTORMS APPEARS TO BE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CASPER WYOMING TO SIDNEY NEBRASKA...HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS THROUGH THE DAY AS RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A GREATER
COVERAGE MAINLY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ANY TSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. IN CONTRAST...THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT...WHICH
MAY LIMIT CONVECTION INITIALLY. THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THE
COOL FRONT WILL BE KEY IN TSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME RAINFALL AND LIGHT
UPSLOPE WINDS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR
THIS WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME STRONGER TSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. SHOULD SEE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR DUE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
IN ADDITION TO BL INSTABILITY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS FOR A DECENT CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO LIMIT DEEP
CONVECTION AND TSTORM ACTIVITY SO KEPT POP BETWEEN 25 TO 35
PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM ON SUNDAY DUE TO
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONCERNING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
GFS IS THE SLOWEST...BUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO DURING THE
AFTN HOURS ON MON. ECMWF/GEM ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND TEND TO
MOVE THIS FEATURE WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN RIDGING OVER THE CWA. TEND TO FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESSIVE THINKING
AS THE GFS SHOWS THIS WAVE TOTALLY OUT OF PHASE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM. PLUS...BELIEVE THE UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVER THE PAC
NW WOULD SERVE AS A KICKER. RESTRICTED POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY. BY THEN...TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A PARTICULARLY MOIST PATTERN BY ANY MEANS...BUT WE
SHOULD SEE PERIODIC SHOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. AS SUCH...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUE-THU WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR NORMS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

A WEAK FRONT ALONG A CASPER-ALLIANCE LINE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING OVER WESTERN NE. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBY WILL OCCUR WITH TSTORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL BE DRY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING FROM RAWLINS TO
CHEYENNE AS GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FUELS REMAIN NON CRITICAL DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HUMIDITIES TRENDING HIGHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

531 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. GENERAL WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS OVER WYOMING TERMINALS BETWEEN 15-02Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

418 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015

VFR. A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

152 AM MST SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL COME ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK LATE IN THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE PHOENIX METRO. SOME
LOCATIONS SAW NORTH OF 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL AND FLOODING WHILE
OTHERS SAW LITTLE TO NOTHING. TYPICAL MONSOON...HIGHLY VARIABLE
DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY DIED OFF THIS MORNING AND WHAT`S LEFT HAS MIGRATED INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...A NEW COMPLEX WAS DEVELOPING
AND SLOWLY BACK-BUILDING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EVEN
FARTHER UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE BAJA SPINE.

AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI-RES MODELS WERE
STRUGGLING A BIT BUT HAVE STARTED TO TURN THE CORNER BACK TOWARD
REALITY. LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF MODELS...NOT
TO MENTION LATEST 00Z SPC SSEO AND NCAR HI-RES ENSEMBLE INDICATE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT TRY AND TAKE A RUN AT YUMA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING COURTESY OF OUTFLOWS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SONORAN COMPLEX BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND SHOULD BE ONE OF DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z.

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE AROUND HERE DURING THE SUMMER...THE BIG
QUESTION IS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER IN TIME FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...I`M LEANING
TOWARD ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY NEAR THE SHORTWAVE /SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/. THE PICTURE LOOKS LESS PROMISING
AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA WHERE NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PAINT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO WITH LITTLE TO
NOTHING IN THE METRO. I`M NOT NEARLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS
ENTIRELY /ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE/ BUT GIVEN THE
WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS IN THE GUIDANCE...I`VE ELECTED TO
REDUCE POPS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND DISCONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. THE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
WEST OF PHOENIX UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH DOLORES WILL USHER IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...EFFECTIVELY MIGRATING ANY
NOTEWORTHY STORM CHANCES WELL INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX. COINCIDENT WITH THE DECREASING MOISTURE TREND WILL BE AN
INCREASING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE BRINGS IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FROM MID WEEK ONWARD AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S...HIGHS IN THE 105-109 RANGE SEEM MORE THAN
REASONABLE.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HURRICANE MOISTURE THAT SPREAD OVER THE REGION IS NOW CONSIDERED
EXCESSIVE. VARIABLE CLOUDS AOA 8 THSD AGL...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z SUN. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CIGS NEAR 5 THSD AGL IN TSTMS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT STARTING MONDAY...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AT LEAST EASTERN ARIZONA AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. FOR TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY DRIER FLOW WILL PRETTY
CONFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST
OF PHOENIX. BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT AS THE AIRMASS DRIES A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
READINGS CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND LOWER INTO THE TEENS
FOR THE MOST PART BY MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT ALL
WEEK...FAVORING NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH TYPICAL OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY. OTHERWISE SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AZZ020-021-025-026.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030>033.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/CB

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

1050 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES STREAMS OVER THE
AREA...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.UPDATE...

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THE CENTER OF NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DOLORES ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES. A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE AIR MASS
WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM SPREADING NORTH INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR
AND RAP MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND PUSH IT NORTH INTO THE AREA.
POPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY BE CUT INTO SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY COULD BE TOO WARM. IF THE CLOUD
SHIELD STICKS AROUND MORE THAN EXPECTED...SOLAR ENERGY WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY REACHING THE SURFACE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
COLBY AND SPRINGS BURN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER ON SUNDAY...SO THE WATCH LOOKS
AGREEABLE AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR FOR
SUNDAY...WITH SOME WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY LESS FOR COAST AND VALLEYS...BUT STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S IN
SOME ELEVATED VALLEYS...LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE.

BY TUESDAY...THE LAST REMNANTS OF DOLORES WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD COOL A TAD
AND MOST OF THE SUB=TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE WELL TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SET OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

.LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE WESTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS A TYPICAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN THIS CASE THE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL START TO EXPAND BY THURSDAY UNDERCUTTING THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
AND POSSIBLY INTO A FEW COASTAL VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MORE
NORMAL BY MID WEEK...WITH MUCH LESS IN THE WAY HUMIDITY.

.AVIATION...19/06Z.

AT 05Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOST LOCATIONS BUT WITH A CHANCE OF
A LOWER VISIBILITY IN STRONGER SHOWERS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A CHANCE OF A LOWER VISIBILITY
IN STRONGER STORMS.

KBUR... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH A CHANCE OF A LOWER VISIBILITY
IN STRONGER STORMS.

.MARINE...19/900 PM

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KAPLAN
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...HALL/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL/SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

936 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

.AVIATION...19/0000Z.

AT 2100Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION.

OVERALL... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...WITH
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY L.A.
AND VENTURA COUNTIES ALTHOUGH TO SOME EXTENT EASTERN SBA COUNTY WILL
SEE SOME TSRA THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR
CIGS/VSBY...BUT WITH A CHANCE OF LOWER VSBY IN STRONGER SHOWERS.

AFTER 12Z...HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA..WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
TIMING OF VCTS MAY CONTINUE PAST 04Z. HEAVIER -SHRA MAY LOWER VSBY
AT ANY TIME. 30% CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

KBUR... LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
TIMING OF VCTS MAY CONTINUE PAST 05Z. HEAVIER -SHRA MAY LOWER VSBY
AT ANY TIME. 30% CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

.MARINE...19/900 PM

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

PUBLIC...HALL/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL/SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

336 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY BY AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
QUITE A BIT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND WITH
INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND AN INCH. BY EARLY AFTN A WK SFC LOW WILL DVLP SOUTH OF
DENVER WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
ACROSS THE ECNTRL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS NERN CO. HOWEVER EXPECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH OF THIS BNDRY AS WELL. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT IS
STRONG ENOUGH SUCH THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY. AS FAR
AS SVR WX THERE IS FAVORABLE SHEAR HOWEVER CIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS
RATHER LOW POTENTIAL FOR SVR BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR WIND
REPORT OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. AS FOR TEMPS READINGS
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

MODELS HAVE A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG MOTION
PROGGED FOR THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE IS PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE PROGGED FOR THE CWA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIODS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 50S F FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS...WITH
SOME LOWER 60S F FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. FOR LATE DAY MONDAY...THE
CAPE IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT OVER THE CWA...AND MAINLY RELEGATED
TO THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND SOUTHERN CWA. BETTER CAPE IS
PROGGED FOR LATE DAY TUESDAY FOR ALL THE CWA. WILL NEED
"SCATTERED" POPS FOR THE LATER DAY PERIODS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSE TO TODAY`S READINGS...WITH 0-1.5 C WARMER READINGS FOR
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS
HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF COLORADO THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIRMASS IS
PROGGED TO BE DRIER AND A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

A WK DENVER CYCLONE IS WEST OF DIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALREADY SHOWS A SMALL PATCH OF
STRATUS JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT AT 09Z. HRRR HAD BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AFFECTING DIA BUT
LATEST RUN NOW KEEP IT MAINLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

FOR THIS AFTN A WK CYCLONE IS FCST TO BE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT WITH A
CONVERGENCE ZN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN
BEST CHC OF STORMS MAY STAY TO THE E AND SE HOWEVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER NORTH SO WILL
KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FM 21Z THRU 01Z. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SSW AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1119 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A WET DAY LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PRECIP WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALL AREAS
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION...AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
MOST AREAS.

WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EL PASO AND THE FAR E PLAINS.

TOMORROW...

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED WEATHER TREND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHWR OR TS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 06Z TAF. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON...FIRST OVER THE MTS...THEN SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY 20-21Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TSRA FOR THE TAF SITES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE OUT
OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ON TO KS SUN EVENING...WITH
TS CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

348 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
STAGNANT WX PATTERN AS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE SERN SEABOARD TO THE NE GOMEX IS TRAPPED BTWN THE ATLC OVER THE
NRN BAHAMAS/S FL AND A CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
RESULTING DEEP LYR COL OVER THE N FL PENINSULA/ERN PANHANDLE IS
ALLOWING HIGH PWAT AIR TO POOL OVER CENTRAL FL...EVENING RAOBS FROM
KTBW/KXMR MEASURING VALUES BTWN 2.0"-2.1". VALUES DIMINISH TO ARND
1.8" AT KJAX AS A SIGNIFICANTLY DRYER AIR WAS INTRUDING INTO THEIR
COLUMN ABV THE H70 LYR.

THIS DRY AIR HAS SINCE WORKED ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FL WITH MEAN RH
VALUES THRU THE H50-H10 LYR FALLING TO ARND 30PCT....SCOURING OUT
VIRTUALLY ALL MID/UPR LVL CLOUD COVER ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. TEMPS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO GENERATE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY...H70
TEMPS ARND 9C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -6C ARE YIELDING LAPSE RATES ARND
5.5C/KM. DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS WEAK AS WELL WITH RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING ONLY A LOCALIZED H85-H30 VORT AXIS ASSOCD WITH THE DEEP
LYR COL.

ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL MAINTAIN THE STEADY SW FLOW THRU THE
H100-H70 LYR THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
WINDS WILL TAP A SLUG OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LOW/MID LVL AIR OVER THE
NRN BAHAMAS WITH MEAN H100-H70 RH VALUES BLOW 60PCT. THE COMBINATION
OF LOW/MID LVL DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST AND MID/UPR LVL DRY
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE N WILL RESULT IN LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE THAN
IN RECENT DAYS...THOUGH STILL IN THE 50-60PCT RANGE WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BTWN 1.8"-2.0".

FULL SUN ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL FL THRU THE PEAK HEATING HRS...
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS IN THE U80S/L90S SHOULD BE MET BY MIDDAY WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION DVLPG SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE RAPID SFC
WARMING/DESTABILIZATION OVERWHELMS WHATEVER WEAK THERMAL CAP THE H70
TEMPS MAY INDICATE. POPS DECREASING TO 20-30PCT AFT SUNSET AS THE
EARLY START TO CONVECTION CONSUMES MOST AVAILABLE CAPE BY SUNSET.
LCL HEAVY RAIN WILL ENHANCE FLOODING THREATS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAIN.

W/SW FLOW WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE L/M90S...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/M70S WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOUT HALF A CAT HIGHER (M/U70S).

MON-TUE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ALONG THE MID ATLC CST
TO THE FL PANHANDLE WL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRESENCE OF FEATURE WL
KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE LCL AREA. SW DLM
FLOW ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WL LEAD TO DIURNALLY FORCED SCT TO
NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS. ACTIVITY WL SHIFT OVER THE ATLC WATERS
WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EVENINGS. STORMS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

EXTENDED...LTST GUID CONTINUES TO POINT TO LITTLE CHG IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH LOWER THAN
NORMAL SFC PRESSURES OVER THE SE TO MID ATLC CST WHERE THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH RESIDES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
RAIN COVERAGES WL BE ADVERTISED GIVEN THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND AMPLE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE.

.AVIATION...THRU 20/12Z

WINDS: THRU 19/14Z...S/SW 4-8KTS. BTWN 19/14Z-19/17Z...S/SW 6-9KTS.
BTWN 19/17Z-19/23Z...COASTAL SITES S/SE 8-12KTS...INTERIOR SITES SW
7-10KTS. BTWN 19/23Z-20/03Z...S/SW 5-8KTS. AFT 20/03Z S/SW AOB 4KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 19/12Z-19/16Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES.
BTWN 19/16Z-19/24Z...SCT/NMRS MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES...SLGT
CHC LIFR +TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE
S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. SCT/NMRS SHRAS/TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE
BTWN NOON AND SUNSET.

RIDGE POSITIONING FORECAST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL FL COAST THROUGH
THE WEEK WL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO PREVAILING
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT. SEAS AROUND 1-2 FT NEAR THE COAST AND
LESS THAN 4 FT WELL BEYOND 20 NM. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AT
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 75 92 75 / 60 20 50 20
MCO 92 74 92 76 / 60 20 50 20
MLB 90 74 92 75 / 60 30 50 20
VRB 92 72 91 73 / 50 30 60 30
LEE 91 75 91 78 / 60 20 50 20
SFB 93 76 93 77 / 60 20 50 20
ORL 92 76 92 77 / 60 20 50 20
FPR 91 72 91 73 / 50 30 60 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

347 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH STATES.
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALSO REMAINS ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE CIRCULATION. THE FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THIS CIRCULATION
IS FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND THIS WAS SAMPLED WELL ABOVE 500MB IN
THE KTBW 19/00Z SOUNDING PROFILE. FURTHER DOWN THE COLUMN THE FLOW
REVERSES ITSELF...BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 700MB. THIS
LOWER LEVEL FLOW RESULTS FROM THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...AND THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA/SE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST WITH A PW VALUE SAMPLED LAST
EVENING AT JUST OVER 2". HOWEVER...LOOKING TO THE NORTH WE SEE A
DRIER COLUMN AT KJAX OF 1.86"...AND A MUCH DRIER PROFILE AT KTLH
OF 1.36". WITH FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHEAST IT WOULD SUGGEST SOME
OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING
TODAY. IN FACT...THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST...WITH A FAIRLY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700-500MB DRIFTING DOWN
OVER OUR NATURE COAST ZONES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT GOING TO GET
DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD HELP LESSEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.

WEAK LAND BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS
SUPPORTING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS CONVECTION BRIEFLY IMPACTED AREAS AROUND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR...BUT HAS SINCE DRIFTED EASTWARD...AND CURRENTLY LOOKING AT
QUIET AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LANDMASS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY... SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS KIND OF A BROKEN RECORD. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING OVER THE NATURE COAST
TODAY...THINGS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE COAST TOWARD DAWN
AND/OR INTO THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE LAND-BREEZE
NOW FORMED...WILL NOT BE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
COAST...BUT RATHER CAP THINGS IN THE 40-50% RANGE...AND PUSH THE
TIMING BACK. MAY NEED TO LET THE LAND HEAT UP A BIT AND WEAKEN THE
LAND BREEZE BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED AND SHOWERS COMMENCE AGAIN ON LAND.

OVER TIME TODAY WILL MIGRATE THE HIGHER POPS (40-50%) INLAND...AND
RAMP DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO THE COAST THE FURTHER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WE PROGRESS. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...NOT
REALLY ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORMS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTING CAN ALWAYS BE DANGEROUS. BETTER CHANCES
FOR ANY GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS WOULD GENERALLY BE NORTH OF I-4
WHERE THE DRIER AIR ALOFT HELPS EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITHIN ANY
CONVECTIVE COLUMNS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR NORMAL TODAY...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF 90 FOR MOST SPOTS.

TONIGHT...
SCT EVENING CONVECTION (MAINLY INLAND) FADES AND LEAVES THE
LANDMASS GENERALLY DRY FOR A WHILE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HIRES LOCAL WRFARW RUNS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. TOWARD DAWN AND INTO THE
FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS...THIS LAND BREEZE WILL FADE...AND AGAIN
WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST.
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NATURE COAST...A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD
PREVENT A LAND BREEZE...AND KEEP A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCT
PRE- DAWN SHOWERS REACHING THE COAST WILL BE NORTH OF PASCO COUNTY
WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.

MONDAY...
GUESS WHAT? SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING MORNING SHOWER
NEAR THE COAST...MIGRATING INLAND AND EXPANDING WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. FORECAST WILL AGAIN SHOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...AND THEN THESE CHANCE POPS SHIFTING
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY EXCEPTION
MADE TO THIS REPEATING PATTERN WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS TO
KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MANY RELIABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION REACHING DOWN TO JUST ABOUT
THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE. MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER THESE AFTERNOON
POPS FOR LEVY COUNTY LATER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS LIFT THE BETTER
FOCUS REGION TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH A DEGREE
OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 90.

HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY EVERYONE!

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ISOLATING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE JET
STREAM SNAKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE
FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...TENDS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...WITH STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TYPICALLY THE AREAS ALONG THE COAST SEE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE INTERIOR
FILLING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK...WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WEST INTO THE PLAINS ALLOWING A MID LEVEL TROUGH
TO DIG IN TOWARDS FLORIDA. THIS COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES EVEN
FURTHER AS THE TROUGH PASSES NEARBY...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS FEATURE IS.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL COME FROM SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND WILL GENERALLY
BE BRIEF IN NATURE.

.MARINE...
A WEAK GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP A GENERAL LARGE
SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WHERE THE GRADIENT IS WEAKEST TO THE SOUTH OF
TARPON SPRINGS...THE FLOW IS LIKELY TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY EACH
MORNING AS A LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO
RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
EACH MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK EXPECTED. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 79 90 79 / 40 30 40 30
FMY 91 76 91 77 / 40 30 40 30
GIF 92 76 91 76 / 50 30 50 20
SRQ 88 78 88 79 / 50 30 40 30
BKV 90 74 90 75 / 30 20 40 30
SPG 88 79 89 79 / 40 30 40 30

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

342 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER/SAL. GPS MET DATA SHOWS PW VALUES RANGING FROM
2.2 INCHES AT NAPLES...1.8 AT OKEECHOBEE...AND DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES
AT FT. LAUDERDALE. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING
THE GULF OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MOVING ONSHORE THERE. AM EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH DAWN.

THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE
EAST COAST. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE OVER THE METRO AREA AT MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INLAND.
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS UP A TAD FOR THE EAST COAST...EVEN DESPITE
THE DRYING NOTED. A FEW STRONG TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH THE
PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALES MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER TSTORMS ARE
THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST AND THE RURAL INTERIOR.

A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET CARVED OUT ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A WIND FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FAVOR THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. MOISTURE CONTINUES
LACK LUSTER THOUGH BELOW 700 MB...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM DEVELOPING. /GREGORIA

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CORRESPONDINGLY LOW SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FL MARINE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 92 76 / 40 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 92 78 / 30 20 20 20
MIAMI 91 78 92 78 / 30 20 20 10
NAPLES 91 77 90 78 / 50 20 30 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

318 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD TODAY.
SFC DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH
MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH TO SEE VERY ISOLATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTN/EVE. GFS/NAM AND RAP ALL PINPOINT THE LEE EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS TOWARD THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE GFS AND
NAM ALSO PICKING UP ON POCKET OF MOISTURE NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA
BORDER REGION AS WELL. MAY NOT BE AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH POPS FOR
DAYTIME PERIOD TODAY. MODELS SHIFT WEAK SHORTWAVE EAST ACROSS EAST
IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND GFS MAINTAINS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ABOVE DRY
NAM...STRENGTHENING CONVECTION INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OPTED TO
STAY DRY GIVEN STRONG DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BUT AGAIN COULD BE TOO
WEAK ON POPS. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO
PACNW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TS
DOLORES WORKING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TO
MERGE WITH NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE. NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO BE ON
THE SAME PAGE WITH PULLING BULK OF DOLORES MOISTURE THROUGH GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT. UPTICK IN CONVECTION OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
ON BOARD WITH MAINTAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON
AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH ALONG COAST. GFS SHARPER WITH TROUGH LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THREAT OF
PRECIP. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE SHALLOW AND WESTERLY INFLUENCE PUSHES
MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FOR A DRIER SOLUTION. BOTH SOLUTIONS
SLOWLY BUILD RIDGE OVER 4-CORNERS/ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND FOR DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. DMH

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER WESTERLY ONE. THEREFORE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE 21-03Z TIME FRAME AS SUN...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 12 KNOTS. AD/DMH

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...AND TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A CORRESPONDING DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR IN TERMS OF
HUMIDITIES AS WELL. GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN INDUCED WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS IN THE 15-
20 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT TUESDAY PM. IMPACTS
FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BE NOTICED BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER IN
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. THESE VALUES SHOULD APPROACH
WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AD/DMH

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

125 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
227 PM CDT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA DUE TO
CONCERNS ABOUT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES.

DESPITE THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES TODAY...PRIOR TO ANY STORMS HEAT
INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 100 TO POTENTIALLY 110 DEGREES TODAY
SO LEAVING THE HEAT HEADLINES UNCHANGED.

GRIDS ARE GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF SURGERY TO REFLECT THE ABOVE
THINKING SINCE THERE IS NO REAL GUIDANCE REFLECTING CURRENT TRENDS
OR ABOVE THINKING...BUT FORECAST UPDATES ARE FORTHCOMING.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
227 PM CDT

TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...SO IT APPEARS THAT TUESDAY COULD BE A DRY AND COOLER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA.

KJB

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
* NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS MID/LATE MORNING. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN BACK A BIT MORE WEST/
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX SOME. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 10KT RANGE BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT
SPEEDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID/
UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
NORTHWEST INDIANA SHORE AND PERHAPS ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND THIS LAKE BREEZE MAY MOVE IS
FAIRLY LOW AND ALL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT AS
FAR WEST AS ORD/MDW. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...ITS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SHORT TERM/HI RES GUIDANCE HAS
SHOWN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS AND WITH
THE EXPECTED ISOLATED AND LIKELY SHORT DURATION IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH ANY PRECIP LIKELY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* LOW FOR SHRA AROUND DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

TUESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

THURSDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.

ED F

.MARINE...

125 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO NEAR
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS WESTERLY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. SPEEDS INTO THE 15-25KT LOOK REASONABLE WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO THE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL TIGHTEN SOME. BUMPED NORTHERLY WIND UP A BIT...INTO THE 10-20
KT RANGE FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR CHANGES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CMS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1223 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
227 PM CDT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA DUE TO
CONCERNS ABOUT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES.

DESPITE THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES TODAY...PRIOR TO ANY STORMS HEAT
INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 100 TO POTENTIALLY 110 DEGREES TODAY
SO LEAVING THE HEAT HEADLINES UNCHANGED.

GRIDS ARE GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF SURGERY TO REFLECT THE ABOVE
THINKING SINCE THERE IS NO REAL GUIDANCE REFLECTING CURRENT TRENDS
OR ABOVE THINKING...BUT FORECAST UPDATES ARE FORTHCOMING.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
227 PM CDT

TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...SO IT APPEARS THAT TUESDAY COULD BE A DRY AND COOLER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA.

KJB

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

JEE

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
* NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS MID/LATE MORNING. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* LOW FOR SHRA AROUND DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

TUESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

THURSDAY...VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.

ED F

.MARINE...
233 PM CDT

OTHERWISE...THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN ON THE LAKE BY SUNDAY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

124 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 90 AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO. IT WILL BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND CONVECTION WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WERE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST GROUND COULD LEAD TO MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND SHOULD CLEAR KSBN EARLY TO MID MORNING. JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A SHRA OR TSRA THIS MORNING SO KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAF.
BETTER CHANCE AT KFWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING HEAT AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT. KEPT A VCTS FOR NOW. ANY TSRA THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF KFWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR THEN
EXPECTED TO END THE PERIOD.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

345 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

WE DID NOT GET QUITE AS HOT AND HUMID AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY...BUT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 70S. FORECAST HEAT INDICES TOP OUT
AT 105-109 THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE
HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY.

HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 100 TO 105 OVER ALL BUT
GIBSON AND PIKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WHICH WOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY UNPLEASANT TO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR A FOURTH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 100+ HEAT INDICES. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY COULD ADVERSELY IMPACT
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
KILLING OFF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ARW AND NMM WRF RUNS
REALLY DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF ALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS TO BRING A COHERENT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WILL FOCUS THE BEST
POPS THROUGHOUT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT. PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AND
THEY WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE 00Z MODELS INCREASE THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AS A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED FORCING SEEMS TO PRECEDE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH OUR REGION...SO WILL HAVE 50 PERCENT POPS ALONG
I-64 MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING GIVEN THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND WHAT SHOULD STILL
BE A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP FOR JULY...SO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN.

WILL HAVE POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION
TUESDAY...BUT IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH CONVECTION AT ALL LEFT
FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TODAY...AND WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW HOT WE
WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HELP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY...BUT CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. IF THE CONVECTION STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY...IT MAY END UP BEING THE MOST OPPRESSIVE DAY OF THIS HOT
STRETCH. UNFORTUNATELY...IF THE CONVECTION MOVES OVER PART OR ALL
OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE THAT HOT AT ALL. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE POSTURE WITH RESPECT TO EXTENDING THE HEAT
ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE
EASTERN TROUGHING WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FOR
MID WEEK. THE PLAINS RIDGE WILL EXPAND SOMEWHAT BY THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACROSS SW KENTUCKY AND SE MISSOURI NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE STALLED FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
RESTRICT POPS TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES AND PARTS OF SE
MISSOURI. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG I-64 TO THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. DEW POINTS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DUE TO CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND EAST OVER OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF
STORMS AS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN EMBEDDED
WEAK SHORTWAVES OR MCV/S. HIGHS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEGINNING THIS EVENING. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM REACHING KEVV OR KOWB LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL
ISSUE IS FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. KCGI WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF HAVING A PERSISTENTLY CALM WIND AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

127 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

.AVIATION...
VFR TAF SITES TONIGHT. RADAR ACTIVITY QUIET AT THE MOMENT.
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
INLAND LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR HIT AND MISS
ACTIVITY SO WILL LOOK AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING TO DECIDE WHETHER
TO KEEP VCNTY OR PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP DEPENDING ON UPCOMING MODEL
UPDATES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/

UPDATE...
ALL OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND WILL REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY
OFF OF LOWER ACADIANA...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LATEST SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWING A PWAT
AROUND 2 INCHES...PLUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MAY PUSH INTO THAT AREA...AND HELP
INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THAT LOCATION. THE 19/00Z HRRR HINTS
AT THIS SCENARIO. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THUS
S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT 3 KTS OR LESS...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT & SUN.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NRN GULF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 96 76 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
LCH 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 10 0
LFT 95 78 95 78 / 10 10 10 10
BPT 96 77 95 76 / 10 10 20 0

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

356 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
MOVING ENEWD THRU NW ONTARIO TO THE N OF UPR LVL RDG CENTERED OVER
THE SRN PLAINS. SFC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV IS MOVING
THRU UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG. DESPITE SOME FAIRLY HI MUCAPES FOR
EARLY IN THE MRNG...AS HI AS 1500-2000 J/KG...THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY
ISOLD SHRA/TS ALONG THE FNT/COMMA TAIL OF ONTARIO SHRTWV DUE TO
DRY/CAPPED MID LVLS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB/RAOB AND RUC ANALYSIS
SDNGS AS WELL AS PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. SOME GUSTY W WINDS HAVE DVLPD OVER WRN UPR MI IN THE WAKE
OF THE SFC COLD FROPA. THE 00Z INL RAOB SHOWED W WINDS AOA 30 KTS AS
LO AS 1K FT AGL WITH FAIRLY STEEP SFC-H7 LAPSE RATES BLO SHARP MID
LVL INVRN ASSOCIATED WITH DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND
SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF ONTARIO SHRTWV. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD IN SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON GUSTY W WINDS TODAY.

TODAY...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHRA/TS TO END BY ARND FCST ISSUANCE
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FNT TO THE E AND ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SHARP PRES GRADIENT
BTWN DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVING TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND SFC HI
PRES MOVING E THRU THE NCENTRL PLAINS IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE CWA.
WITH H925 WINDS AS HI AS 25-30 KTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTING TO WELL MIXED LLVL LAPSE RATES/SOME
DIURNAL CU...EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE EXPOSED KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE LK BREEZE
CONTRIBUTION WL AID THE GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 MPH. WITH H85 TEMPS
NEAR 14-15C THIS AFTN AND DEEP MIXING...EXPECT HI TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE 80S TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AWAY FM LK MODERATION.

TNGT...LINGERING GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEN SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO
SLIDE SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO. SINCE BULK OF THE DPVA/DEEP LYR
FORCING/MID LVL MOISTENING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE N AND MSTR
INFLOW WL BE LIMITED BY PREVAILING W WIND DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...ALMOST ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN WL
REMAIN TO THE N OF THE LAND CWA. THE NAM DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BRUSHING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH STEADY WSW SFC WINDS...THE
DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP WL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WL SEE MIN TEMPS HOLD ARND 65.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

IMPACTS...QUIET LONG TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PRECIP...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING N OF THE CWA DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY MON AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP FRI INTO SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. MODELS DO SHOW A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF TUE
AND WED...WHICH MAY OCCUR IF A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NW
FLOW...BUT CERTAINLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPS...WARMEST TEMPS ON MON WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE 80S INLAND...INCLUDING UPPER 80S SCENTRAL. TUE AND
WED WE WILL BE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH E AND A BUILDING RIDGE W...SO
THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONAL. TUE AND WED HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 70S (60S E ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE) WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THU AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THU THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT
HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS (TO 30 KTS)
EXPECTED AT KCMX DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KIWD SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONGER WEST WINDS CONTINUE OFF THE SFC AS
WINDS DECOUPLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LO PRES MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY
AND HI PRES MOVING THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE SOME WSW
WINDS AS HI AS 25 KTS THRU MON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
PERSISTENT...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE W AND NCENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS AFTER MON WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TYPICAL
OF MID SUMMER DOMINATES THE AREA. PATCHY FOG THRU MON WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE NE PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
LOWEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

233 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015