Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
558 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR HAS SHOWED
GREAT CONTINUITY WITH CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND 21Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE SHOWERS MAY NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH...HOWEVER DID INCLUDE VCTS AS FAR SOUTH AS
KLIT/KHOT/KADF...MAINLY AFTER 00Z
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT
TERM. VERY FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7
PM THIS EVENING.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST A
BIT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
TO ROTATE THROUGH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO MAINLY
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. RIDGE EXPANDS ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN SHUTTING OFF.
WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND...AREA WILL LIKELY NOT REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE CRITERIA WILL BE
MET ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS RIDGE GETS REESTABLISHED.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPS AND
WILL SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE NUMBERS PROVIDED.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO UPPER 90S. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. WHILE
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DID COME SLIGHTLY MORE IN LINE
THAN THE 12Z RUNS...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT YET
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 96 77 94 74 / 10 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 98 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 93 74 92 73 / 10 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 75 95 74 / 0 0 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 98 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 97 76 95 75 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 95 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 74 93 72 / 10 20 20 20
NEWPORT AR 98 77 94 74 / 10 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 97 75 95 74 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 98 76 95 75 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 96 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 10
STUTTGART AR 98 77 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
917 AM MST TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING ON THE FORECAST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS
HELPING KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. SHOWER FREE ELSEWHERE SO FAR. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE THOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE HELP OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO
HANDLE THINGS WELL SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS GENERALLY AFTER
18Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL
PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY AROUND 35-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...
CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THIS
WEEKEND. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
OCCUR NEXT MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NERN TEXAS... AND A TROUGH AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST.
HURRICANE DOLORES WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS
CENTERED NEAR 17N/108W...OR ABOUT 245 MILES SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO AS PER THE 3 AM MDT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE ARIZONA THRU FRI
AS THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED VIA THE 14/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
THE RECENT 2-3 HRRR SOLUTIONS DEPICTED SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION TO
OCCUR EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/WRN COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 14/08Z HRRR
SUBSEQUENTLY DEPICTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY MID-
AFTERNOON TO BE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN COCHISE/CENTRAL GRAHAM
COUNTIES NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL
TRANSPIRE...WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY AND THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SERVING AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT 700-300 MB
WIND REGIME...SLOW EWD/NEWD STORM MOTIONS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXISTS ACROSS THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON. THIS GENERAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND TIMING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THRU FRI.
THEREAFTER...14/00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT RELATIVE TO
SOLUTIONS DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES INTO SE ARIZONA
STARTING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT-FRI...BUT ESPECIALLY FRI
NIGHT-SAT. THE GFS DEPICTS PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS
OF 2.00 INCHES TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY SAT MORNING.
THUS...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ACTUALLY BE GREATER SAT
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS VERSUS ERN LOCALES...AND THIS SCENARIO IS
DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES SUN FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD MON.
HIGH TEMPS INTO THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPS NEXT MON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. KEMX WSR-88D
COMP REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTED A CYCLONIC TWIST SUGGESTING
THE PRESENCE OF A MCV CENTERED OVER ERN COCHISE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT CLOUD TOPS WERE GENERALLY
WARMING DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS OVER CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS OF THIS
FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO GRADUALLY TAPER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ERODES AS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN TEXAS...
AND A TROUGH AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. HURRICANE DOLORES WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS CENTERED NEAR 17N/108W...OR
ABOUT 245 MILES SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AS PER THE 3 AM MDT
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE PLUME WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SE ARIZONA THRU FRI AS THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED VIA
THE 14/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE
WEST COAST.
THE RECENT 2-3 HRRR SOLUTIONS DEPICTED SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION TO
OCCUR EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/WRN COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 14/08Z HRRR
SUBSEQUENTLY DEPICTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY MID-
AFTERNOON TO BE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN COCHISE/CENTRAL GRAHAM
COUNTIES NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL
TRANSPIRE...WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY AND THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SERVING AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT 700-300 MB
WIND REGIME...SLOW EWD/NEWD STORM MOTIONS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXISTS ACROSS THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON. THIS GENERAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND TIMING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THRU FRI.
THEREAFTER...14/00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT RELATIVE TO
SOLUTIONS DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES INTO SE ARIZONA
STARTING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT-FRI...BUT ESPECIALLY FRI
NIGHT-SAT. THE GFS DEPICTS PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS
OF 2.00 INCHES TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY SAT MORNING.
THUS...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ACTUALLY BE GREATER SAT
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS VERSUS ERN LOCALES...AND THIS SCENARIO IS
DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES SUN FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD MON.
HIGH TEMPS INTO THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPS NEXT MON.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS GENERALLY AFTER
18Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL
PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY AROUND 35-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...
CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THIS
WEEKEND. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
OCCUR NEXT MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER TX THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOIST SSW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
COLORADO. LOWER LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOISTEN TODAY...AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...WHILE CAPE OVER
THE PLAINS ALONG THE NM AND KS BORDERS EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG. RELATIVE
MIN IN THE INSTABILITY FIELD LIES OVER EL PASO/PUEBLO/CROWLEY/OTERO
COUNTIES...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LEADING TO CAPES GENERALLY IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE.
CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE SO FAR TODAY HAS THUS BEEN HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...AND WITH WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY...APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...AS 0-6KM SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS
STRONGEST UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH OVER SERN
AZ...STREAM OF WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST PLUME WILL
CONTINUE PUSH OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING PAST SUNSET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE KS
BORDER. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH MAIN CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING PUSHING INTO KS TOWARD
06Z...WITH HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY AREA OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST STORMS WILL
THEN FADE AWAY BY EARLY WED MORNING...THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MINS RATHER MILD.
ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DON`T CHANGE
VERY MUCH...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
MOST HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING WEAKLY
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
CONVECTION...THOUGH EXPECT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE
AS SURFACE LAYER DRIES. MAX TEMPS DRIFT DOWNWARD JUST SLIGHTLY WED
AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL...THOUGH READINGS MOST LOCATIONS WILL END UP
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF TUESDAY`S READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SOMETHING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACK IT EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND OTHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ELEVATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STRONG STORMS EXIST. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER
TEXAS AND A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MODEST STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP PUSH
THIS ACTIVITY OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS RETROGRADE THE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST EJECT TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE DRYING OUT TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF FLOODING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE ECMWF
IS MUCH DRIER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE MAIN ENERGY TRACK TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY POTENTIALLY BEING WET ACROSS THE AREA. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z-
04Z. CONVECTION THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO KS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25 BY
EARLY WED MORNING. WITH WEAK N-NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB...WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MCS
OUTFLOW LATE TONIGHT COULD PUSH CLOUDS BACK FARTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED. ON WED...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...WITH TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVELS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE PLAINS WED...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
WEAKER STORMS BUT STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
UPR HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT OVR CENTRAL TX TODAY...WITH A
PLUME OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPR HIGH AND INTO CO. AS A RESULT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AREAS OVR
AND NR THE MTNS SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PCPN THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO
TUE MORNING.
ON TUE THE UPR HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVR ERN TX AS AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WRN STATES. THE
PLUME OF MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA ON TUE...AND THERE
WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST
NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS TUE AFTERNOON IN THE MID OR UPR 40S ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND IN THE MID TO UPR 50S NR THE KS BORDER. CAPE VALUES
LOOK FAIRLY LOW OVR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER NR THE KS BORDER 1000-2000 J/KG IS
FORECAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND
HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREADS THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SITS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TWO STRONG WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO. THE FIRST WILL BE
LIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...SPREADING
EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING AN MCS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND LIFTING IT
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS AN MCS AND TRACKS
IT EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THEN OVER THE PLAINS. HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE MCS TRACKS.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER STORMS. MODELS PUSH THE ACTIVITY
EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING...WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOCUSING IT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO AMPLIFY AND DRAW THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
FORCE THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
THE WEST. WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL HELP BRING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING. STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS LIMITED TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH SUNDOWN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HIGH ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN STATUS QUO...WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENING AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER TEXAS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE MAIN MOISTURE AND ENERGY
TO THE WEST...WITH CONTINUED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LIMITED
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH PARITAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 17Z AND COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BY 20Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW EVENING. WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAFS FOR COS...PUB
AND ALS FOR NOW...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF STORMS DO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
IN SW FLOW A WAVE PASSED LAST NIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A
SUBSIDENT REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED A BIT THROUGH TODAY WITH NO FAVORABLE
GRADIENT AREAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NO ORGANIZED FORCING IS
SEEN FOR THIS LATE AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT SO CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND POTENTIALLY DRIFT TO NEARBY VALLEYS TO THE
NE. HRRR SHOWS A QUICK DIMINISHING OF STORM COVERAGE WITH SUNSET
EXCEPT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TO SW SAN JUANS WHERE STORMS MAY
PERSIST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT FROM THE SOUTH AND FORCING
INCREASES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF THE JET PUSHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RESULTING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE UT-
CO STATE LINE. THE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...TO THE NE AT
10KTS...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS FAVORING EASTERN
UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO UNDER THE BEST LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING JET FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN
BRINGING A DRIER W-SW FLOW TO EASTERN UTAH. MOST AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN COLORADO. THE TREND
IS FOR LESS DRYING THAN PROGGED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY WHICH MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEW WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.5 INCH...SO ISOLATED
LATE-DAY STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE
RAIN.
THE NEXT MONSOONAL SURGE BEGINS LATE FRIDAY IN THE GFS WITH ITS
DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH. THE EC DELAYS THE SURGE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY. SO FOR THIS FORECAST WE SHOWED A WETTER TREND FOR THOSE
DAYS WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STORM
COVERAGE. THE WET PERIOD COULD INTO MONDAY WHEN THE EC BEGINS TO
PULL MOISTURE OFF OF HURRICANE DOLORES INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ACROSS THE TOP OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE GFS KEEPS
DOLORES FURTHER OUT TO SEA PERHAPS PULLING MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 25 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BRING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.
THE MOIST MONSOONAL AIRMASS WILL FUEL INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL PASS OVER AIRPORTS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS
MAY CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. STORMS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THU
AND FRI. WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND BUT ALSO THE RISK
OF SCATTERED T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
NOTICED THAT THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER
SUNSET SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DRY POCKET IS PUNCHING THROUGH NJ
AND PA DEVELOPING A FEW STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT EVOLVES AND IF IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE BULLISH OF
THE MESO GUIDANCE KEEPING SHOWERY ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
WHILE THE HI-RES ARW/NMM DISSIPATE IT. BECAUSE OF THE SOUPY NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT...KEPT ISO
MENTIONING OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FOG UPSTREAM. HOWEVER WE
ARE STILL IN AT 70+ DEWPOINT AIRMASS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP FOG AT
A MINIMUM AND FOCUS MORE ON THE STRATUS POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG...BUT KEPT VSBYS ABOVE
1-2SM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT...
BEHIND DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH SOME WEAK BUT BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HUMID AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S
WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND WARM CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING WEDNESDAY***
WEDNESDAY...
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY MID JULY STANDARDS MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST MODEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FRONTAL SCALE
FORCING WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WARM SECTOR
REGION WILL LIKELY NOT ENTER OUR AREA. THUS ANY INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH A
LOW RISK OF BRIEF LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY MUCH OF THE DAY BUT TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER LATE
IN THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
WITH NE WINDS INCREASING.
WED NIGHT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LINGERS DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY UP TO 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COURTSEY OF 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH ENTERING SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND MODEST FRONTAL WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND COOLER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
* WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...HAVE A LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR PATTERNS. DOMINATE TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST TURNS MORE ZONAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
WESTWARD AS CANADIAN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PUTS THE REGION INTO A DOMINATE SOUTHWEST PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK BEFORE THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TO START BUT WILL MODERATE TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEK. COULD SEE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DAILIES...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AS SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SNE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL BE GUSTY TO START DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.
NE WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP COASTAL ZONE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...PERHAPS INTO THE LOW 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S.
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY
MIX DOWN AROUND 50-55F...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DECOUPLE AND LOWS
DROPPING AROUND 55F IN THE NW. A FEW OTHER SITES MAY RADIATE
OUT...DEF AN OPEN YOUR WINDOWS TYPE OF NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BE WARMER. HIGHS WILL REACH IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. MAY FEEL WARMER THANKS TO FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. A
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AS A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH. A FEW SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND...JUST A MATTER OF TIMING AND WHERE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN SEVERE WEATHER
AS HEIGHTS REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM. HOWEVER
PWATS DUE INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THIS IS STILL 5-6 DAYS
OUT.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THANKS TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND TEMPS ALOFT WARMING CLOSE TO 16C.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOW CONFIDENCE ESP ON TIMING AS THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED VS THE
PROGRESSIVE GFS. REGARDLESS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE THING TO
NOTICE IS THE INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SO
ANTICIPATE A MODERATING TEMP TREND BACK TO AVERAGE OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVG THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS
EVENING BUT INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO WED/WED NIGHT.
AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET AND
ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER. VFR TO START THE EVENING BUT SLIPPING TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD
MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. MARGINAL VFR/MVFR.
WED NIGHT...SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
DURING THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST
WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS!
KBOS TERMINAL...INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z AND
ESPECIALLY WED AND WED NIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z AND
ESPECIALLY WED AND WED NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU THROUGH FRIDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
APPROACH 20-25 KT ON THU...SEA BREEZES LIKELY WITH WEAKER FLOW
ELSEWHERE FRI.
SAT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE SCT
MVFR IN ISO -SHRA/-TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** NEAR GALE FORCE NE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU
MORNING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS ***
TONIGHT...MODEST SE WINDS CONTINUE AND BECOME SOUTH LATE. 3 TO 5
FT SE SWELLS FROM CLAUDETTE CONTINUE TO ENTER THE WATERS. VSBY
LIMITED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...T-STORMS AND FOG.
WED...SHOWERS...T-STORMS AND FOG LIMIT VSBY. SHOWERS MORE
WIDESPREAD WED THAN TODAY. SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
WED NIGHT...FRONTAL WAVE EXITS INTO GEORGES BANK AND COMBINES WITH
1020 MB HIGH ENTERING QUEBEC FOR NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS 10 PM WED UNTIL
ABOUT 10 AM THU.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SCA
MAY NEED TO LINGER A TAD LONGER ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRES.
SAT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. GOOD BOATING WEATHER TO
START. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15KTS ON SAT
AND SUN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5FT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ231-233>235-237-250-251-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH REGION TOWARD
DAYBREAK. A WAVE MIGHT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT SLOWING IT DOWN TO OUR
SOUTH. MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE ENCROACHING ON OUR AREA FROM THE
WEST...SOUTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 PM...HEADING NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER SCATTERED BATCH OF MAINLY SHOWERS WAS WORKING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
BY 600 PM IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL COVER MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POSSIBLY
EAST AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL MIGHT BE IN THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER 600 PM.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPWARD MOTION.
IN ADDITION A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...JUST PASSING NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.
MESO-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY SINCE IT IS REALLY
NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY IN OUR REGION...BUT IT WAS LIMITED...
GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY "TALL" THUNDER BUT
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5+ SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 COULD CREEP INTO OUR REGION TOWARD EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED TO THE MID 80S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE HAD
TO BUMP UP HIGHS THERE. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...75-80 FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WERE CREEPING UP THROUGH THE 60S.
SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE. WHILE SOME PLACES WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL...THOSE THAT
DO COULD HAVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LATER THIS EVENING THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER LULL IN ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN
WESTERN NEW YORK EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER (AND WE THINK IT WILL)...
IT WOULD REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FWA
BY DAYBREAK.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK
PARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH
OF I-90. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGHT LAG A LITTLE
BEHIND...KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED INITIALLY...EVEN NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE DAY WILL START WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NORTH...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH STILL THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MIDDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS...REACHING
IN THE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT MIGHT REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM IN
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND LOTS OF CLOUDS TOMORROW...IT WILL TURN
NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE KICKING
IN. WHILE NOT GOING AS LOW AS THE MET GUIDANCE WE ACTUALLY SIDED A
LITTLE MORE WITH IT...THAN THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS. THAT MEANS HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND 70 IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES (DESPITE SEEING SOME
CLEARING EARLIER)...MID 70S CAPITAL REGION AND NEAR 80 SOUTH WHERE
THE FRONT AGAIN WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO PLUNGE TO
THE 40S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON...50S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. TO THE SOUTH...DEWPOINTS STARTING OUT NEAR 70...WILL
BE TRIMMED BACK TO THE 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN AROUND 10 MPH...BUT COULD GUST OVER
20 MPH AT TIMES.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK IN
EVERYWHERE...CLEARING THE SKY AND MAKING FOR A REFRESHINGLY COOLER
NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH A FEW CU FORMING. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE SUNNY WITH RATHER LOW HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S) AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS AGAIN LOWER TO
MID 50S ALBANY SOUTH...MID TO UPPER 40S MOST OTHER AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WORK WEEK...AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
NEAR TX...AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HAVE FLAT RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT AS
WE ENTER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN DAY...AND INTO THE
NIGHT PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORM INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE FIRST WEAK SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SFC DEWPTS MAY GET WELL INTO THE 60S. MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY MAY SET UP OVER THE FCST AREA IF
ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. THE LATEST GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
FROM ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD BY 00Z/SUN. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS MAY RISE
A STANDARD DEVIATION OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. THE WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST...AND THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR THE FCST AREA.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/SOUTHEAST MAY AMPLIFY A BIT AS WE CLOSE THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE OLD COLD FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH AND EAST OF UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AS A WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A
RELATIVELY DRY SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/CMC/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE
INDICATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WAS KEPT IN THE
FCST TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TEMPS MAY NUDGE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AS
A STICKY AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE FCST AREA.
MONDAY MAY FEATURE AIR MASS OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT MAY NOT
BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND S-CNTRL ONTARIO MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH.
SOME HEAVY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 1-2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ON THE GEFS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS AND LOWS STILL LOOK A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE FOR THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND KALB.
WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT
THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS
COVERED IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR MORE...WHILE SOME AREAS LOCALLY RECEIVING UP TO
AN INCH OR MORE.
A COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD LATER
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY...TRENDING TOWARD SEASONAL ON FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE
FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...
BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH.
WITH PWATS MAXING OUT BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS PERHAPS EVEN SOME URBAN FLOODING.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SND/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
229 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
SHOWERS TO NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS NOW LIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY IN THE CT RVR VLY. ELSEWHERE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AS SEEN ON SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE WITH LOWER K INDICES OVER RI AND
EASTERN MA.
NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION OVER NYC AREA AND LONG ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY NONE OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES ARW/NMM/RAP AND HRRR ARE
SIMULATING THIS VERY WELL. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THINKING IS
THAT TOWARD SUNSET AND ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WARM AND MUGGY WITH
TEMPS IN THE U70S TO L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY***
TONIGHT...
BULK OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCALES...BUT AREAL EXTENT
UNCERTAIN. WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...INSTABILITY BURST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WED.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS BY 12Z AS SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...EARLY WED MORNING
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE WED AM RUSH HOUR.
WEDNESDAY...
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DO AFFECT OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES
EARLY WED MORNING. EITHER WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN WEAK WIND
FIELDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STREET FLOODING
WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD EVENT...IF ANY ACTIVITY TRAINS OVER A PARTICULAR
LOCATION ESPECIALLY IN AN URBANIZED LOCATION. HIGH TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER RIDGES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN USA. ON THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE SCALE...THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION INTO A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVES IN
THE WESTERN USA TO RACE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE IN PARTICULAR MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUFFICIENT SIMILARITY TO GO WITH A BLEND OF LONG RANGE GUIDENCE.
WOULD EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HEIGHTS THEN BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLE OR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY. LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY EARLY
AT NIGHT OVER CT-RI-EASTERN MASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.9 INCHES IN THIS SAME AREA...SO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ALL OF THIS MOVES
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLEARING AT ALL LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH IS INITIALLY
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING A
NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE CT VALLEY. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEA
BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE LIGHT FLOW.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THURSDAY FAVOR MAX SFC TEMPS
AROUND 80. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THIS. MIXING TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW MOVES THROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRAW UPON SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DRAW
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES INTO NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
MOST INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST IN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AND
INCHES INTO WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...NOT A WASHOUT BUT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS. WE WILL FOLLOW LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH
HIGHEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY AND WESTERN HILLS.
MONDAY... NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND STARTS TO RUN
INTO THE BUILDING EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST USA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 2 INCHES. CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS
EVENING BUT INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO WED/WED NIGHT.
230 PM UPDATE...
THRU 00Z...SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOCUSED IN THE CT RVR VLY AND THE
SOUTH COAST. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET AND
ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER. VFR TO START THE EVENING BUT SLIPPING TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD
MORNING.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. MARGINAL VFR/MVFR.
WED NIGHT...SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
DURING THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST
WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS!
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING BUT HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WED AND WED NIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING BUT HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WED AND WED NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A BOSTON-HARTFORD
LINE. ALL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT/04Z.
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR AFTER THAT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALL AREAS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
FRIDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN WESTERN MASS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE PASSING OVER 300
MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO
NOVA SCOTIA WED MORNING. IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WATERS
AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS REDUCING VISIBILITIES
FOR MARINERS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
RESULT IN SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS BUILDING TO BETWEEN
3 AND 6 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. OTHER CONCERNS
FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS
AND SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS FAIRLY DEVOID OF SHOWERS...
EXCEPT A FEW OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY. THERE WAS A PRETTY GOOD CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY HEADING TOWARD HERKIMER COUNTY...
LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THAT COUNTY BEFORE 400 PM. IF THAT BATCH HOLDS
TOGETHER AND DOES NOT CHANGE MOVEMENT...IT WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY THROUGH ABOUT 6-7 PM.
THERE WAS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF DUTCHESS COUNTY THAT MIGHT IMPACT
THAT COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD THROUGH 4-5 PM...ON A SCATTERED BASIS.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPWARD MOTION. IN ADDITION THERE WAS
A WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR NEW YORK CITY...A WAVE RIDING ALONG FURTHER WEST...AND
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MESO-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY SINCE IT IS REALLY
NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY IN OUR REGION...BUT IT WAS LIMITED...
GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY "TALL" THUNDER BUT
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5+ SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COULD CREEP INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD EVENING.
LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURE ALONE. THEY WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY
NIGHT.
IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT
FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER TODAY. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND
KALB.
WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT
THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS
COVERED IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM...UPDATE MAINLY TO COVER RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. ALSO UPDATED CLOUD COVER...POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS. CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO INCREASE BUT MOST OF AREA
STILL RAIN FREE. LARGEST AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN NOW
JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO NEW YORK. THIS MAY REACH WESTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST ARE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WHERE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE WEAK FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION SO THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. THIS
COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
NOT EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECTING SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY
NIGHT.
IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT
FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER TODAY. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND
KALB.
WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT
THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS
COVERED IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
822 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 822 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. LATEST HRRR KEEPS MOST
OF OUR AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH NOON. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS START
TO DEVELOP. HRRR ALSO SHOWS MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY 5-6 PM.
AT THE SURFACE HAVE A STALLED AND WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. ALOFT HEIGHTS WILL FALL TODAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE WEAK FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION SO THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. THIS
COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY.
THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER.
NOT EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECTING SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY
NIGHT.
IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT
FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
NORTHWARD...BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING AT KPSF/KPOU...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS
GENERALLY WILL BE VFR.
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TODAY. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT ANY POINT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT
THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE
DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO A N-NW DIRECTION BY LATE TONIGHT AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST
PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE CONVECTION TODAY, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS IN THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS WANED BUT WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
COASTAL LOCALES. SW FLOW COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWER OR TSTORMS TO
MOVE IN ALONG THE GULF COAST...SHOULD NIGHTTIME STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, SOME CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED ACTIVITY
GOING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT...BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ATLANTIC COAST AS HRRR IS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.
ANY RAIN IS BENEFICIAL FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HOWEVER, WITH THE
RAIN COMES THE TYPICAL LIGHTNING WITH OUR SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...AND THIS LIKELY SPARKED A WILDFIRE JUST NORTH OF 8TH
ST AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES
COULD BE SPARKED BY LIGHTNING IN THE COMING DAYS WITH THE
INCREASED TSTORM ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/
.THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING INTERIOR-EAST COAST METRO THIS WEEK,
PROVIDING FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN SOUTHEAST
FL...
DISCUSSION...
THUNDER RUMBLING OUTSIDE NWS MIAMI IS A SIGN OF CHANGING TIMES
WITH FINALLY A WIND FLOW REGIME ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. RIDGING WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BEING THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE HAVING
INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FAVORING MAX CONVERGENCE ON
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. IT WILL BE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE REGIME DOMINATING EACH DAY.
ONE NOTABLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY IS THAT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BOTH TRENDED HIGHER WITH REGARDS TO ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE INCREASE
ALREADY OCCURRING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW UP TO AROUND
1.6 INCHES. THE UPWARD MOISTURE TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HR WITH PWATS APPROACHING OUR MEDIAN FOR MID
JULY...AROUND 1.8 INCHES. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES. THIS WOULD SPELL A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WHICH LIES IN A SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT.
WPC QPF FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOWS AREAL AVERAGE OF 1-1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND 0.75-1.0 INCH OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THINKING IF MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS CONTINUE,
THESE NUMBERS COULD GO HIGHER. CERTAINLY ISOLATED DAILY TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...IN SOUTH FL TYPICAL RAINY SEASON
STYLE. MUCH NEEDED RAINS INDEED!
OF COURSE WITH THE RAINS COMES THE INCREASING LIGHTNING RISK.
THREE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA THIS YEAR.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OVER 10 MILES FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORM. WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE LIGHTNING RISK ON
SOCIAL MEDIA AND OUR PRODUCTS SINCE IT HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY
TSTORM-FREE ACROSS THE POPULATED EAST COAST METRO FOR SOME TIME.
/GREGORIA
MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LEADING TO A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...SO MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SCATTERED TSTORMS MOVE INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 93 75 93 77 / 50 40 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 91 77 / 40 50 50 20
MIAMI 91 76 91 77 / 50 40 50 20
NAPLES 90 77 90 78 / 30 30 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MIDLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A WEAK INLAND SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
16/01 SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT ALONG AN AIKEN-ORANGEBURG-KINGSTREE LINE. THE FRONT HAS
MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF ALLENDALE TO BERKELEY COUNTIES JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH THE LATEST RAP INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP A
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR THIS REASON. IN THE NEAR TERM...A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF DORCHESTER
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE/SEA BREEZE
INTERSECTION WHILE CONVECTION SLOWLY DIES OFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO TAKE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE LAST OF THE STRONG JET ENERGY SHOULD BE PULLING
NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILD. THAT
COMBINATION SHOULD ENSURE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
DYING FRONT. DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP MANY PEOPLE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH
AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES TO THE MID
90S INLAND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RIDGING ALOFT... WHILE THE INLAND TROF WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE
MASS FIELDS. TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH UPPER 90S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL GET UP TO 105-108...SO CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...BUT I THINK WE SHOULD STAY
JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND NO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REDEVELOPS
INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR BY
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURS OVER THE AREA WHILE A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO MID LVL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. SHOWER/TSTM IMPACTS AT KSAV HAVE ENDED WITH ACTIVITY NOW TO
THE SOUTH AND WEAKENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
REDEVELOP LATER WHICH COULD ESTABLISH BKN060-080 CIGS. ATTM IT
DOES NOT APPEAR LEVELS WILL REACH MVFR THRESHOLDS. SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING/POSITION/COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG. OTHERWISE...SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS
SETTLING DOWN INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE NORTH...CAUSING THE WINDS TO GO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK...KEEPING WINDS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE TYPICAL
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS SHOULD BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STORING UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS
OF STORMS EFFECTING THE AREA... ONE ONGOING AS STORMS LEFT OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX NOW PUSHING INTO NE GA. THESE STORMS
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON OR SO BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA JUST FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON
LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS
NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALL OF THESE STORMS CLOSELY
WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTING...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED BRIEF FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD
MONITOR RADAR AND FORECAST CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BDL
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING ACROSS
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z-05Z WED... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPING AROUND THE AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THAT TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPO 20-24Z FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION... AND
PREVAILING -TSRA 00-03Z WED TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED STORM COMPLEX
LATER THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY
05-06Z WED... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15-
20KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
/39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50
GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50
ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40
VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STORING UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS
OF STORMS EFFECTING THE AREA... ONE ONGOING AS STORMS LEFT OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX NOW PUSHING INTO NE GA. THESE STORMS
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON OR SO BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA JUST FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON
LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS
NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALL OF THESE STORMS CLOSELY
WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTING...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED BRIEF FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD
MONITOR RADAR AND FORECAST CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BDL
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. HI-
RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS.WENT A LITTLE WIDE WITH THE
PROB30 GROUP...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE 01Z TO 04Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST
SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50
GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50
ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40
VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BDL
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. HI-
RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS.WENT A LITTLE WIDE WITH THE
PROB30 GROUP...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE 01Z TO 04Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST
SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50
GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50
ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40
VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST
SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50
GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50
ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40
VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
859 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND A
BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
FOR A BIT AS THEY SHIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAIN...AND FELT THAT
WARRANTED AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO KICK OFF ANOTHER DECENT ROUND THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
INCLUDING THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MAGIC VALLEY. WE DID
INCREASE CHANCES THERE FROM THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. STILL
LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN ISSUE. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...THE LATTER WHERE THE SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW BUT NOT NECESSARILY ZERO. KEYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR WEST KEEPING
SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND SHARP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HOLD ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME CELLS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BUILDS AND BY WEDNESDAY THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CURTAIL SOME
OF THE MOISTURE COMING INLAND. SO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AND A LITTLE DRIER. THAT ALSO MEANS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO MONTANA BY
THURSDAY AND PROCEEDS TO DEVELOP A NEW TROUGH OVER THIS AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DRIER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FOCUSES SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES STAY IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY LOW TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE VALLEYS.
RS
AVIATION...A PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE PAC NW WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET OFF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROF
WILL RESULT IN SOME TSTMS PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL THIS AFTN. HEDGES
FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNEDAY...BUT DIMINISHING BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY FALLING ON THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
201 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY...PRIMARILY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 69. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...THOUGH MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
RAPID DESTABILIZATION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS EXPECTED
AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY EVENING. 18Z DVN SPECIAL SOUNDING
SAMPLED NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM H850 TO H500 AND
NEARLY 100 KNOTS OF FLOW ABOVE 300MB. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S BENEATH THIS EML...EXPECT
EXTREME INSTABILITY OF 4000 TO 6000 J/KG BY 22Z. THIS INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO
EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION LATER THIS EVENING. HP
SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
BEFORE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.
DURING THIS 22Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SSW WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXTREMELY LOW
LCLS COUPLED WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED TORNADIC RISK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY...A
STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER 850 FLOW
(35 TO 40 KNOTS) FROM THE LATEST HRRR VERIFIES.
EACH RUN OF THE HRRR HAS ADVECTED THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSIVELY
FURTHER EAST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A GREATER THREAT FURTHER NORTHEAST
THAN THE CURRENT AREA OF FOCUS WHICH IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 IN
INDIANA.
MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE ROUND OF
RAIN THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS
EVENING WITH A VERY HIGH THETA E AIRMASS AND TRAINING STORMS
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH 06Z.
ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN OUR CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
ROBUST NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR NRN MN WILL DIG SEWD
INTO THE ERN LAKES ON TUE. RESULTING TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS THE
LAKES WILL SHUNT UNSTABLE LL THETA-E RIDGE SWWD UNDER PERSISTENT H5
RIDGE CNTRD ACRS E TX. HWVR RESPITE FM WET PATTN LIKELY FLEETING AS
SRN PLAINS RIDGE BLDS BACK NORTH AGAIN W/EWD FOLDING THETA-E RIDGE
XPCD DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF AT TIMES CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF AMPLIFYING WRN US TROUGHING.
AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT REORDERED POPS/WX
FRI-SUN TO HIGHLIGHT BTR CHCS ACRS THE NORTH IN PROXIMITY TO IMPLIED
UPR JET STREAM ACRS LWR MI AND INVOF OSCILLATING SFC FNTL ZONE.
OTRWS VRY WARM TEMPS XPCD TO MANIFEST UNDERNEATH STEADILY NWD BLDG
UPR RIDGE AXIS AND NO DOUBT HOT...HUMID 90S LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ON MARKED DOWNTREND ERLY THIS AM. VFR MET CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD...SAVE FOR BRIEF MVFR BR FORMATION NEAR
DAYBREAK AROUND SOGGY KFWA AIRFIELD. ADDITIONAL CAVEAT IS LOW PROB
SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY TUE ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH...THOUGH CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR INZ003-012-013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
851 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE LATEST THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT
AND COVERAGE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
FAIRLY WELL AT THE MOMENT...SO DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE SOLUTION
INTO THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER FOR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 3 MDT/4 CDT BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUD WITH LOW DAYTIME CUMULUS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN A FEW PLACES. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS LED TO THE LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. A FEW SUBTLE
MONSOON-TYPE IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTH ON THE WESTERN RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE IN PARTICULAR IS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO...HEADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS LIKELY THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENING`S THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATES A FEW STORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST AREA...WHERE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO A STRONG CAP...IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
LOCATED OVER PRIMARILY NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE SECOND AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH POSSESSES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...HAS BEGUN OVER COLORADO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLORADO STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AFTER CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. MOST STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING BEHIND THE
STORMS.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS POSES THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM...AND DCAPE POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS DEFINITELY LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED AS
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE A MEAGER 20-30 KTS WITH 0-3 KM
HELICITY REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 125 M2/S2. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE MORE PULSE-LIKE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS PROJECTED IN THE
1.50"-1.75" RANGE INDICATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. STORMS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AS A RESULT OF COLD POOL
FORMATION BUT ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE AT A SNAILS
PACE. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
FOR TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS NUMEROUS DUE TO LACK OF A
MORE NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE INTENSIFICATION.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FROM
BEING REALIZED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ALSO...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE RIDGE BUILDING...HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED. FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW ARE GENERALLY
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM REACHING THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME SMALL SCALE FEATURES THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH
THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY
INDICATE A NUMBER OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD PROVIDE
AMPLE ASCENT FOR STORMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING. THAT FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OF ALL THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IS NOTED
BY A BROAD BRUSH CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY UNTIL THEY REBOUND AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO IS FORECAST BY
GUIDANCE TO APPROACH BUT MISS KGLD IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SO PLACED
A VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF KGLD.
KMCK SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ONE
MODEL HAD STORMS APPROACHING THE TERMINAL AROUND 4Z. WILL MONITOR
AND UPDATE THE TAF AS NEEDED. RAP AND WRF-ARW MODELS WERE ALSO
HINTING AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCK BETWEEN 9 AND
12Z...HOWEVER THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WAS NOT RESTRICTING
VISIBILITIES BELOW P6SM. NOT EXPECTING FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY
NEED TO MENTION REDUCED VISIBILITIES IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE
UNANIMOUS FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUD WITH LOW DAYTIME CUMULUS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN A FEW PLACES. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS LED TO THE LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. A FEW SUBTLE
MONSOON-TYPE IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTH ON THE WESTERN RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE IN PARTICULAR IS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO...HEADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS LIKELY THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENING`S THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATES A FEW STORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST AREA...WHERE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO A STRONG CAP...IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
LOCATED OVER PRIMARILY NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE SECOND AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH POSSESSES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...HAS BEGUN OVER COLORADO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLORADO STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AFTER CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. MOST STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING BEHIND THE
STORMS.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS POSES THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM...AND DCAPE POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS DEFINITELY LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED AS
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE A MEAGER 20-30 KTS WITH 0-3 KM
HELICITY REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 125 M2/S2. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE MORE PULSE-LIKE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS PROJECTED IN THE
1.50"-1.75" RANGE INDICATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. STORMS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AS A RESULT OF COLD POOL
FORMATION BUT ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE AT A SNAILS
PACE. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
FOR TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS NUMEROUS DUE TO LACK OF A
MORE NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE INTENSIFICATION.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FROM
BEING REALIZED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ALSO...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE RIDGE BUILDING...HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED. FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW ARE GENERALLY
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM REACHING THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME SMALL SCALE FEATURES THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH
THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY
INDICATE A NUMBER OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD PROVIDE
AMPLE ASCENT FOR STORMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING. THAT FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OF ALL THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IS NOTED
BY A BROAD BRUSH CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY UNTIL THEY REBOUND AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO IS FORECAST BY
GUIDANCE TO APPROACH BUT MISS KGLD IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SO PLACED
A VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF KGLD.
KMCK SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ONE
MODEL HAD STORMS APPROACHING THE TERMINAL AROUND 4Z. WILL MONITOR
AND UPDATE THE TAF AS NEEDED. RAP AND WRF-ARW MODELS WERE ALSO
HINTING AT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCK BETWEEN 9 AND
12Z...HOWEVER THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WAS NOT RESTRICTING
VISIBILITIES BELOW P6SM. NOT EXPECTING FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY
NEED TO MENTION REDUCED VISIBILITIES IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE
UNANIMOUS FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1020 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO MOVE IN...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1012 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TREND AND
INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.
PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS... AND
TO INGEST THE 22Z MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER EASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY ALONG
CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO END NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS MARCH THRU THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
CLEARING THE WESTERN MAINE COAST AT THIS HOUR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SOUTHEAST
NH...WHICH WILL ONLY BE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT MOST.
ANY REMAINING POP WILL CONFINED TO THIS AREA OF NH...WITH RAPID
DRYING FROM THE N.
DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING INTO THE 50S AS THE DRIER AIR MASS WORKS
INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS IS SEASONABLY COOL...BUT THE CENTER OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DELAY IN ARRIVING UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THUS WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TONIGHT...AS COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP A SOMEWHAT MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL BE A SPECTACULAR DAY THURSDAY...AS WARM TEMPERATURES
COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY. NW
BREEZE WILL WEAKEN...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...ALLOWING SEA
BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AFTER
SUNSET THURSDAY. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
VALLEYS...AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP. ALSO
EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE MORE PREVALENT THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LACK
OF GRADIENT WILL REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL MIXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY SETTING UP RETURN SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR FRIDAY THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN A DRY DAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
SEND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO MAINE BY
SATURDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE A WARM FRONT MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED. SOUTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH DECREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITHIN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PRODUCE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. WIND
SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. COULD
STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LINGERS NEARBY
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL MAINE. TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S BUT WILL
RISE INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE MARITIME AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS IT IS ALSO SHOVED FURTHER SOUTHEAST BY A
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL SET
UP AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ON
MONDAY... WITH LOW CLOUDS BECOMING LIKELY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REACH THE 70S THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE COOL AIR AND LOW CLOUDS IN MOST OF
THE DAY.
THE NEXT LARGER SCALE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY... WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS IT DOES SO.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WHICH GIVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY. IF THE TIMING LINES UP RIGHT... THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...PROVIDING QUIET
WEATHER THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
IN VALLEY FOG. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LEB AND HIE WILL DROP TO
IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT AS COOLER AIR MASS
ADVECTS IN THE MODELED COOL TEMPERATURES AND FOG WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG APPEARS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND WINDS GO CALM.
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS
BEGIN ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY MAY BRING IN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG OR DRIZZLE TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO SWELL.
LONG TERM...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ON SUNDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL QUIET DOWN FOR MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT TONIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED BY THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PIVOTING AWAY AND DIURNAL HEATING. AFTER ABOUT
02Z-03Z EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE NORTH FLOW SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY
MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MAIN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
SOLID LOW LEVEL JET IS POISED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FORECASTING A LLJ OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS NOTED IN ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...SO EXPECTING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE CHANCES
ARE A BIT TOUGHER TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN THE STORMS WILL BE ROLLING IN
AFTER DARK WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE MULTIPLE FACTORS THAT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS
THOUGH...NAMELY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LOW LEVEL JET OVER 30
KNOTS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AS IT COMES INTO THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS TEMPORAL WINDOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW HOT IT GETS AND
WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. WHILE H8 TEMPS
AROUND 20C CERTAINLY SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY... CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION COULD HOLD DOWN TEMPS SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S.
THE UPPER PATTERN WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS OCCASIONAL
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH AND THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL MCS ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL SVR WX THREAT.
IT APPEARS TO COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THE LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS DRY
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP
SHOWS THE CLEARING NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE HEADING SOUTHWARD AS
OF 22Z. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THE CLEARING WILL REACH
I-96 AROUND 06Z AND BE SOUTH OF I-94 BY 09Z. FROM THEN THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MAINTAINED THE MARINE HEADLINES AS IS...SO BOTH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 800AM
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES ARE RAMPING UP ON THE LAKE...WITH 4
FOOTERS HAVING ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH THE LUDINGTON AND PORT
SHELDON BUOYS. THE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE PROGRESSING DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE OVER TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE WIND IS FORECAST TO AFFECT LAKE MICHIGAN
AT THAT TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUITE A BIT OVER NIGHT WITH
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS WED/THURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
RIVER LEVELS ARE INCREASING DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN
MONDAY. AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL
INCHES AND COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL SITES REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMES
BAY)...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND A FEW 80S OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL EJECT OUT THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH OTHERS TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST FORCING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE (SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION) LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT (NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACK). WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA BUT STILL SHOW
CHANCES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF THE U.P. OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...MUCAPE VALUES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOT
SEEING TOO MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH
AND WILL CAP THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE AREAS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND NOSE OF INSTABILITY
OUT AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND REMAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WARM DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. AS MIXING WILL OCCUR UP TO 800MB (TEMPS
THERE AROUND 15-18C). THAT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY
SUPERIOR.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NW CONUS WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ON SATURDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A TRANSITION TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
N WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE ANY REMAINING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER
MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
N WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE ANY REMAINING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER
MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
104 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND A SFC LOW NOW OVER THE
ERN THUMB HAS LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
STRATO CU. DIURNAL HEATING HAS LIFTED INVERSION HEIGHTS A
BIT...WHICH HAS LED TO A FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM MVFR TO VFR /WITH SOME IFR IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/. THIS FLUCTUATION IN CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TERMINALS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME EXPANSION OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN
ABRUPT CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
FOR DTW...THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS AND REGION OF THUNDERSTORMS SET
UP SOUTH OF TOLEDO TODAY. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL IS LOW. THE REGION OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR AND INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
UPDATE...
THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP INVERSION BASED JUST
UNDER 1K FT. ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON /JUST NORTH OF THE
THUMB/ LED TO A RAPID EXPANSION OF STRATUS FOLLOWING SUNRISE.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHOWERS ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ACROSS SE
MI TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER
MORNING INSOLATION SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR HAS LEAD TO SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY.
IN LIGHT OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS NOW BLANKETING THE AREA AND WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED /SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB/. THE ONLY OTHER
UPDATE WILL BE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND LOWER
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE 94 CORRIDOR AS CURRENT
TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK DESTABIIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE
STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO
ONTARIO.
EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED
CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO
OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE
HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING
DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE
AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND
UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE.
LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE
WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF
7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK.
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND
1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST
INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM
CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN
IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER
FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE
IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AXIS OF SHOWERS NEAR LUDINGTON SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH AND RESULT IN
MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS
SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS
COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS.
THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS
EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS
LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST
AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET
TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW
WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
IFR LOOKS LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO KMKG THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MVFR IMPACTS. VFR WEATHER TO RETURN THIS
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPERE DRIES OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM
HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL
BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING.
THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER
THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
RIVER LEVELS ARE INCREASING DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN
MONDAY. AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL
INCHES AND COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL SITES REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP INVERSION BASED JUST
UNDER 1K FT. ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON /JUST NORTH OF THE
THUMB/ LED TO A RAPID EXPANSION OF STRATUS FOLLOWING SUNRISE.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHOWERS ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ACROSS SE
MI TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER
MORNING INSOLATION SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR HAS LEAD TO SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY.
IN LIGHT OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS NOW BLANKETING THE AREA AND WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED /SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB/. THE ONLY OTHER
UPDATE WILL BE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND LOWER
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE 94 CORRIDOR AS CURRENT
TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK DESTABIIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 713 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AT SUNRISE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND PULL A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MVFR CEILING AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM PTK
SOUTHWARD WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AS THE FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. CEILING WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR POST FRONT
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT UNTIL SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
EVENING. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND VEERING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL
CONSIST OF DRY AIR FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE...BUT NE FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON ALWAYS REQUIRES WE MONITOR FOR MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU.
FOR DTW... MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN THE DTW AREA...ENOUGH FOR INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK
DIMINISHING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CEILING
LESS THAN 5000 FT WILL THEN BE THE ONLY CONCERN UNTIL POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHES OF STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE
STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO
ONTARIO.
EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED
CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO
OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE
HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING
DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE
AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND
UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE.
LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE
WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF
7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK.
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND
1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST
INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM
CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN
IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER
FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE
IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WITH N WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ADVECTING HIGH RH LOW LEVEL AIR INTO
UPPER MI IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AN UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS. THE STEADY NNE WIND WILL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER
MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AXIS OF SHOWERS NEAR LUDINGTON SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH AND RESULT IN
MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS
SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS
COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS.
THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS
EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS
LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST
AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET
TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW
WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
IFR LOOKS LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO KMKG THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MVFR IMPACTS. VFR WEATHER TO RETURN THIS
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPERE DRIES OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM
HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL
BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING.
THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER
THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ADVISORY
AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECASTED...BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS DOWN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
713 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AT SUNRISE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND PULL A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MVFR CEILING AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM PTK
SOUTHWARD WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AS THE FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. CEILING WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR POST FRONT
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT UNTIL SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
EVENING. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND VEERING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL
CONSIST OF DRY AIR FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE...BUT NE FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON ALWAYS REQUIRES WE MONITOR FOR MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU.
FOR DTW... MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN THE DTW AREA...ENOUGH FOR INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK
DIMINISHING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CEILING
LESS THAN 5000 FT WILL THEN BE THE ONLY CONCERN UNTIL POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHES OF STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE
STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO
ONTARIO.
EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED
CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO
OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE
HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING
DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE
AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND
UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE.
LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE
WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF
7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK.
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND
1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST
INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM
CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN
IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER
FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE
IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR
MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY
NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER
MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OD
DRIZZLE WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS
INCREASING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR
MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY
NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE
STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO
ONTARIO.
EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED
CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO
OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE
HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING
DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE
AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND
UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE.
LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE
WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF
7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK.
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND
1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST
INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM
CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN
IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER
FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE
IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1217 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SUPPORTS A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD BUT SOME GUSTY WEST WIND AND IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
LIKELY AT EACH LOCATION UNTIL THE CLUSTERS EXIT EASTWARD TOWARD
SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATO-CU AND PERHAPS
ADDITIONAL SCT -SHRAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SW TONIGHT TO W DURING THE MORNING NW/N DURING AFTN/EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
FOR DTW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE 07Z-11Z PERIOD AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES PIVOT THROUGH REGION.
IFR RESTRICTION IS LIKELY WITH LOWER VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN
FORECAST WITH SECOND WAVE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT/MORNING. LOW TUESDAY
EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/MORNING AND LOW DURING
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS
SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS
COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS.
THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS
EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS
LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST
AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET
TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW
WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 09Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE THIS. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARYCOLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS (MID MORNING HOURS). BEHIND THAT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT CIGS TO VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM
HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL
BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING.
THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER
THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ADVISORY
AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECASTED...BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS DOWN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
UPPER AND SFC TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SE
TONIGHT AND TUE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND ARE NOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO MORE NRN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
IN. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER SRN UPPER MI...DEPENDING
ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO AROUND
1000J/KG OF CAPE AROUND AROUND 20KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. USED A BLEND OF HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE FOG WILL BE PUSHED ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING IN UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO BE DONE BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DID LAG CLOUDS BACK FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLEARING IS OFTEN SLOWER
THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID
70S...WARMEST SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR
MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY
NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
UPPER AND SFC TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SE
TONIGHT AND TUE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND ARE NOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO MORE NRN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
IN. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER SRN UPPER MI...DEPENDING
ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO AROUND
1000J/KG OF CAPE AROUND AROUND 20KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. USED A BLEND OF HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE FOG WILL BE PUSHED ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING IN UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO BE DONE BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DID LAG CLOUDS BACK FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLEARING IS OFTEN SLOWER
THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID
70S...WARMEST SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE U.P. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN A FEW
DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE DEPARTING BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO LEAD TO ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA (TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL). WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...ALTHOUGH THEY
ARE VARYING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL TRY TO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER TIMING...MAINLY IN THE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD...WITH THE WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS
ARE INCONSISTENT ON THE SUBTLE FEATURES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT
5 DAYS OUT). OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM/HUMID ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE MODELS ARE GIVING A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR WAVE EJECTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND POTENTIALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR
MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY
NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
932 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE AND
SHOULD BE DISSIPATED IN AN HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL LEAVE CONDITIONS DRY
OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. /SW/
&&
.AVIATION...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT KMEI FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND A
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AT THE JACKSON AIRPORTS SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR THURSDAY. /SW/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...A LOOSE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF ORGANIZED MIDSOUTH STORMS YESTERDAY IS NOW ALIGNED FROM LIT ESE
TO BHM AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO
ESSENTIALLY WORKING TO POOL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN MY NORTHERN
ZONES...SPIKING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 110 IN SOME CASES AND DRIVING
SBCAPE VALUES UP TO NEARLY 6000 J/KG. MY LATE MORNING ASSESSMENT DID
NOT QUITE ANTICIPATE SO MUCH CAPE MATERIALIZING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE NEW INFO IT SEEMS THE HIGH INSTABILITY
COULD INDEED OVERCOME CAPPING AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
RESERVATIONS FROM EARLIER. FOR THAT REASON WE INCLUDED A LIMITED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO ACROSS BASICALLY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LATEST HRRR THINKING OF VERY
LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORM SEGMENTS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EVENING LOOKS ENTIRELY BELIEVABLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ALTHOUGH TREMENDOUS RAINFALL
RATES MAY BE CAPABLE OF VERY ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES. ALSO EXPECT
SOME EXTREME LIGHTNING RATES FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS OF COURSE ALWAYS A HAZARD.
THE HEAT IS THE OTHER BIG...AND CONTINUING...STORY. THE PREVIOUSLY-
MENTIONED EXTREME SPIKE IN HEAT INDEX VALUES UP IN THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BRIEFLY EXCEEDED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA AND THERE WAS TALK OF PERHAPS GOING WITH A HEAT WARNING IN
THOSE SPOTS THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...UPON FURTHER
CONSIDERATION...WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY STATUS
SINCE THE MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD NOT BE
SUCH AN ISSUE TOMORROW AND THUS PEAK HEAT INDICES UP THERE A LITTLE
TAMER. OVERALL...THE HEAT ADVISORY IN OUR AREA FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF ACME LA...TO JACKSON MS...TO MEI LINE THROUGH THURSDAY WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LOCATIONS CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN BEFORE FRIDAY...BUT THE CURRENT
REGIME IS OFFERING INCREASED MIXING OF DRIER DEWPOINTS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES (WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK). PAST FRIDAY THERE IS
DEFINITELY DECENT POTENTIAL THAT THE HEAT WILL ACTUALLY WORSEN IN
ALL AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN
SPORADIC SPOTS HITTING 100 DEGREES. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME HEAT
WARNINGS...WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY CONSIDERED.
IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AFTER EVENING ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
EXPECT LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION TOMORROW LIKELY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN
MS (AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST MS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON). THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTER MIGRATING MORE FIRMLY OVERHEAD OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL PUSH SEMI-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAY NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR REGION. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 95 75 95 / 15 10 4 14
MERIDIAN 72 95 74 96 / 25 21 12 17
VICKSBURG 74 95 73 95 / 11 7 3 10
HATTIESBURG 74 96 75 96 / 11 19 12 21
NATCHEZ 74 94 75 94 / 6 8 5 10
GREENVILLE 75 96 75 96 / 27 7 2 6
GREENWOOD 74 96 74 96 / 30 13 3 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>053.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>025.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1002 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE
NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET, AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND
NORTHERN MO. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHEAST MO AS THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN HAS
ITS QPF FURTHER SOUTH, AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA LATE TONIGHT. THE
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN SOME AS IT GETS FURTHER EAST INTO SLIGHTLY
LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BNDRY THAT PASSED
THRU THE FA YESTERDAY/LAST EVNG WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS. SHRAS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRD
ALONG THE FRONT FROM WRN MO INTO S CNTRL MO WITH ACTIVITY SLIDING SE
ALONG THE BNDRY. DON`T EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA BUT BORDER
WITH SGF MAY GET BRUSHED LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS NORTH AS AN MCS ASSOC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TRACKS
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVNG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TOMORROW.
THERE SHOULD BE A WAA WING OF PRECIP EMANATING FROM THE STHRN SIDE
OF THE MCS AFFECTING THE NTHRN PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY MORNING.
2%
.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM LATE THURSDAY
MRNG INTO THE AFTN BEFORE ADDTNL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE FA
THURSDAY EVNG ALONG WITH THE BNDRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE MO AND W CNTRL IL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS AS THE BEST SHEAR IS FCST TO REMAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISLD
STRONG/SVR STORM.
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT SIGNALS THE START OF THE NEXT WARMING TREND. 850MB
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 20S BY FRIDAY WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
CORRESPONDED TO SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPS SO USED A BLEND.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY
UPPER LVL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE WKND BCMNG CENTERED OVER
STHRN AR/NTHRN LA SO EXPECTED A TYPICAL MID JULY WKND WITH TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WRT HOW TO HANDLE ENERGY ASSOC WITH A
CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA OVER THE WKND. THE GFS IS NOW
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S FASTER SOLUTION WRT SHORT WAVE ENERGY. MAIN
ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WEST ACROSS TX FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE REGION IS FCST TO REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW
INTO MID-WEEK. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVNG...WHICH WILL ALSO
BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE BNDRY SHOULD
CLEAR THE STHRN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE.
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE WKND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S...COUPLED WITH DPS IN THE 70S...MEANS THAT A HEAT HEADLINE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WKND. THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP 850MB
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT A FEW SPRINKLES AT THE MOST AT THE
TAF SITES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF KCOU WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL ON THEIR
CURRENT TRACK. EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT KUIN, THOUGH
THERE IS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD AFFECT KCOU AND THE ST.
LOUIS METRO TAF SITES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
10Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER, THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. A WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH WILL CAUSE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO VEER SOUTHERLY BEHIND IT.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
621 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS AS OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND
LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE EAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE HAS STEADILY ADVECTED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. AS OF 20Z
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WAS NOTED
ON RADAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH NORTH. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING
FORWARD. CLEARING TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH INTO THE LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST WIND ADVECTING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES RIGHT AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
PV ANOMALY EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. SO FAR TODAY
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED AS INITIATION POINTS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS WORKED TO
ELIMINATE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY INDICATE
THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE LOCAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SREF...NAM...AND MOST HI-RES MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR AN AREA EAST OF
A NORTH PLATTE TO TAYLOR LINE FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER
TODAY...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL STAY EAST OF THE CWA WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE.
POPS CLEAR OUT EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP SAGS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INSOLATION EXPECTED. WEAK FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. WARMING
TEMPERATURES FROM 850MB TO 700MB AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER FURTHER NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS POISED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO BE PULLED NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY EAST AROUND THE HIGH...FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND LATER ONTO THE PLAINS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PAC NW LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE GFS AND EC DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THE PAC NW TROUGH...SO BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT MUDDLED. REGARDLESS...THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
PERIODIC ATMOSPHERIC IMPULSES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES TO PROVIDE FOR
CHANCES OF THUNDER. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PULLS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THE FRONT MORE OR LESS WASHES OUT
SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY...SPARKING OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION SITS IN
A POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO WATCH THE MONSOONAL PLUME
AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH...ANY SUBTLE IMPULSE WOULD
PROVIDE FOR THE RETURN OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
QPF IS NOT LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN
SEASONAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE FCST
AREA THROUGH SWRN NEB AROUND 09Z-12Z. THE HRRR MODEL WAS
PREFERRED. THUS STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT.
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THE FIRST ROUND ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL
SOON IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE SECOND CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
AHEAD OF THIS...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE RIDGE AXIS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
CAM`S BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
EVENING BUT GENERAL FEELING IS THAT THEY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
CONTINUE EAST AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CWA.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN STRONG WAA
REGIME AIDED BY NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY EXIT THE AREA
BY NOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...BUT WILL BE
ELEVATED.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA BY PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SECOND ABOVE
MENTIONED PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON SPEED OF EXITING MORNING TSTMS...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK HEATING. STRONG BULK
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
INTITIALLY...WITH A TORNADIC THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH PW`S AOA 2.00". MUCH OF THE CWA IS OUTLOOKED IN
THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FEEL THIS IS QUITE
REASONABLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING IT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MODEST WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF THESE WAVES IN THE
LONG TERM...BUT CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT TSTMS IN ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. WILL CARRY A LOW CONFIDENCE SMALL POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENTER LATER PERIODS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BEGINNING ABOUT 11Z AT KOFK...13Z AT KLNK AND 14Z AT
KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECAST...
FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. KTCC AND
KROW WILL LIKELY BE LEFT-OUT AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY STORMS LATER TODAY
ARE KGUP...KAEG...KFMN...KABQ AND KSAF...IN THAT ORDER. MVFR
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS...BUT SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ BETWEEN 22-02Z.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE
MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS
EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF
WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE
MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO
NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE
PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO
THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST
ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A
SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST
OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO
FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS
WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
POCKETS OF SH/TS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. SH/TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING. GUP
AND EVENTUALLY FMN WOULD INITIALLY BE IMPACTED. EVENTUALLY AEG/ABQ
AND SAF SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. USING VCSH/VCTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE IMPACTS BUT COULD SEE SOME TEMPOS BEING USED IN
THE COMING HRS. LVS/TCC/ROW ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED ALTHOUGH USING VCSH TO INDICATE SOME IMPACTS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING
SIGNIFICANTLY. A WELL PLACED ALTHOUGH SHORT DURATION HEAVIER TS
WILL REDUCE CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORY TODAY.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE
MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS
EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF
WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE
MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO
NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE
PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO
THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST
ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A
SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST
OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO
FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS
WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE
MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS
EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF
WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE
MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO
NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE
PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO
THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST
ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A
SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST
OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO
FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS
WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER CENTRAL NM...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK BTWN
THE CONT DVD AND THE AZ BORDER DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ACTIVITY
WILL REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN NM AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY LATE
MORNING THEN ADVANCE EAST ALONG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL ENHANCE -TSRA INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
BTWN 22-02Z...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO -SHRA DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT BY A TSRA TUESDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
REDUCE VSBY TO BLW 5SM WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 88 60 89 58 / 30 30 10 10
DULCE........................... 78 50 80 48 / 50 40 20 20
CUBA............................ 75 52 79 51 / 50 40 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 82 54 84 52 / 40 40 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 77 52 78 51 / 50 40 60 30
GRANTS.......................... 79 54 81 52 / 50 30 40 30
QUEMADO......................... 77 56 79 54 / 50 40 50 30
GLENWOOD........................ 86 56 83 57 / 30 40 40 40
CHAMA........................... 77 47 76 46 / 60 50 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 58 80 57 / 60 50 70 30
PECOS........................... 80 55 79 54 / 50 50 50 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 74 52 74 50 / 50 50 50 30
RED RIVER....................... 66 45 68 45 / 70 50 70 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 70 49 70 49 / 70 50 70 40
TAOS............................ 80 51 80 49 / 40 40 30 30
MORA............................ 79 53 75 52 / 50 50 60 30
ESPANOLA........................ 86 56 85 55 / 40 40 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 82 58 81 57 / 40 40 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 57 84 57 / 30 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 63 84 63 / 40 40 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 64 87 65 / 30 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 88 62 / 30 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 64 88 63 / 30 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 62 87 60 / 20 30 30 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 64 87 62 / 30 30 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 91 63 87 61 / 30 30 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 57 81 55 / 50 40 60 30
TIJERAS......................... 84 58 84 57 / 40 40 50 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 53 83 52 / 40 30 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 57 81 56 / 40 40 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 58 82 57 / 40 40 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 86 62 / 30 30 20 30
RUIDOSO......................... 80 59 78 58 / 40 30 50 30
CAPULIN......................... 82 56 80 57 / 40 30 40 20
RATON........................... 87 56 84 55 / 30 30 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 88 58 85 56 / 20 30 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 55 82 54 / 50 40 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 95 63 93 64 / 20 20 30 20
ROY............................. 90 60 88 60 / 20 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 97 66 96 67 / 10 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 65 93 66 / 10 20 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 67 98 68 / 10 20 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 97 65 95 66 / 5 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 98 67 96 67 / 5 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 66 94 67 / 10 20 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 100 67 97 68 / 5 10 10 20
PICACHO......................... 92 62 90 62 / 30 20 20 30
ELK............................. 85 60 83 59 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
639 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 PM TUE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL OFF THE
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
CONTINUING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TIME OF
ARRIVAL TOOL SHOWS IT INTO WESTERN SECTION OF FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF DIMINISH THIS COMPLEX. WILL LOWER POPS
FOR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT KEEP THEM IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...EXPECT
A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
DEWPOINTS ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER. TEMPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WITH 30 PCT
INLAND AND 20 PCT COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED WITH A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 87
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TO 91 INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING OFF EARLY THU. THOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SFC TROUGHING INLAND AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. HEIGHTS BUILD WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING TO 20-22C...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/90 ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MON/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 631 PM TUESDAY.VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING THIS
COMPLEX DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES. HOWEVER DONT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF NO THREAT SO WILL CARRY VCTS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT WEDNESDAY SO ONLY
EXPECTING MINIMAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...PRED
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NNE. DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 638 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS 5
TO 8 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND SEAS 4-6FT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU...MAINLY 10-20KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 6FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH N/NE FLOW. GRADIENT RELAXES
THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT WITH VEERING WINDS AOB 10KT. SW FLOW
10-15KT RETURNS SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY SO FAR TODAY...WITH A FEW
STORMS TO OUR SOUTH NEAR WILMINGTON AND NORTH OF THE OUTER BANKS.
THINK MAIN TRIGGER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS
INDUCING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OHIO THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY
BLOWING UP NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS AND HAVE
CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS
COMING IN THE LATE EVENING INTO THE POST- MIDNIGHT HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. SOME THREAT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...EXPECT
A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
DEWPOINTS ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER. TEMPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WITH 30 PCT
INLAND AND 20 PCT COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED WITH A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 87
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TO 91 INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING OFF EARLY THU. THOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SFC TROUGHING INLAND AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. HEIGHTS BUILD WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING TO 20-22C...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/90 ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MON/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL FORECAST VCTS WITH LOWER VSBY FROM ROUGHLY
08Z TO 12Z. SUBSIDENCE AGAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS WED
NIGHT AND EARLY THU...WITH WINDS BECOMING NNE. DIURNAL CONVECTION
CHANCES INCREASE SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ALREADY
SEEING GUSTS INTO THE MID-20S AT DIAMOND BUOY AND OREGON INET.
WAVE MODELS SHOWING SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 8 FEET LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND SEAS 4-6FT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU...MAINLY 10-20KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 6FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH N/NE FLOW. GRADIENT RELAXES
THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT WITH VEERING WINDS AOB 10KT. SW FLOW
10-15KT RETURNS SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE PATTERN OF AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED
POPS A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS PASSING JUST NORTH
OF OUR CWA WHILE MAIN MESOSCALE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF
EASTERN NC IS FAIRLY STABLE GIVEN EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
FEEL ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN
PERHAPS ADDITIONAL SOLAR HEATING CAN OCCUR. LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL
SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO FORM NEAR THE SEA BREEZE.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...DID LOWER
AFTERNOON MAXES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STRONG UPR SHRT WV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
AREA FROM NW TONIGHT....AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MCS COMING
ACROSS MTNS PRODUCING WDSPRD SVR THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING
WITH SEVERAL INDICATING MAIN ACTIVITY W AND SW OF ERN NC...THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS AT 50%. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
PROFILE...ENHANCED SVR THREAT IS WARRANTED FOR INLAND AREAS WITH
SLIGHT RISK REST OF AREA.
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN MID TO UPR 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...AN ACTIVE DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONG VORT CENTER PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING AND SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT 50%. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROF SETS
UP ONCE AGAIN ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. MAINLY
DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL FORECAST VCTS WITH LOWER VSBY FROM ROUGHLY
08Z TO 12Z. SUBSIDENCE AGAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...SCATTERED STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF AND END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS...NORTH
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY...NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND
MAINLY EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY PICKING UP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS. ALREADY
GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 21 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED FOR SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD
TO 5-7 FT OUTER PORTIONS AND SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
BASED ON LATEST WAVE MODEL HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FEET NORTH OF OCRACOKE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE
THE HEADLINES FOR THIS WHEN CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...WITHERING AND FORMER UPSTREAM DERECHO IN
A WEAKENING PHASE...AND ENCROACHING CLOUD COVER MAY OFFSET SEVERE
THREAT TO SOME DEGREE AS ITS ARRIVAL INTO OUR ZONES PRECEDES THE
PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. FORWARD SPEED HOWEVER OF ANY CELLS COULD
STILL LEND TO STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUN
BAKING THE GROUND PRESENTLY ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC WILL HELP GIVE
RISE TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPES.
OUTFLOWS PRECEDING THE MAIN ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF I-95 THROUGH LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL NEAR TERM MODELS IN CONSENSUS BRING A BROKEN LINE OR
SQUALL LIKE FEATURE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY 19Z WITH SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY ALSO IN BLOOM ABOUT THAT TIME ACROSS OUR COASTAL
INTERIOR. TIMING OF THE ORGANIZED FEATURE REACHING THE COAST 22Z-
23Z/6PM-7PM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS UPDATE AND SPC RETAINS AN ENHANCED RISK
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OF CONCERN ARE CELL
MERGERS AS THE ORGANIZED LINE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE TO REACH 86-91 OVER NC AND 90-96 OVER SC. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FAR INLAND DUE TO ENCROACHING CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP
CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE
MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT
CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC
HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY
FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT
LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY...
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN
AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL
WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS AND INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED SFC
TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING
TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 7 FT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO
DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL
AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY
THE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME
TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE
FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING
SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...SRP/DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE PATTERN OF AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WELL OFFSHORE BEYOND
THE GULF STREAM WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG MCS CONTINUES TO WORK SSE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
MOST OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY MOSTLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE 3-KM HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY...LIKELY INVOLVED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AROUND
18Z-20Z NEAR THE COAST. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS. IF A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SOLAR HEATING OCCURS...FORECAST SOUNDING PARAMETERS ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER AND LI VALUES
AS LOW AS -8. MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT INLAND. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STRONG UPR SHRT WV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
AREA FROM NW TONIGHT....AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MCS COMING
ACROSS MTNS PRODUCING WDSPRD SVR THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING
WITH SEVERAL INDICATING MAIN ACTIVITY W AND SW OF ERN NC...THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS AT 50%. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
PROFILE...ENHANCED SVR THREAT IS WARRANTED FOR INLAND AREAS WITH
SLIGHT RISK REST OF AREA.
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN MID TO UPR 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...AN ACTIVE DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONG VORT CENTER PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING AND SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT 50%. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROF SETS
UP ONCE AGAIN ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. MAINLY
DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF TAF PERIOD
ALL SITES. LINE OF TSTMS IS MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WHILE MCS REMNANTS ARE TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS MTNS. SOME REMNANTS
MAY REACH COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SCT STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS PSBL TONIGHT AS
UPR LVL SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN UNTIL
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UPSTREAM LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SW
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH MUCH
HIGHER GUSTS PSBL IN STRONG TO SVR STORMS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...SCATTERED STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF AND END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS...NORTH
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY...NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND
MAINLY EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN INLAND TROUGH AND
HIGH OFFSHORE. GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED FOR SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND BY EVENING AND PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT. NWPS INITIALIZED ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH...THUS ADJUSTED
FCST TOWARD BLEND WITH WW3. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT OUTER
PORTIONS AND SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
BASED ON LATEST WAVE MODEL HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FEET NORTH OF OCRACOKE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE
THE HEADLINES FOR THIS WHEN CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LOOKING AT AN ACTIVE SEVERE WX DAY ACROSS
THE ILM CWA...MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHATS DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY ARE S/W TROFS/VORTS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THESE UPPER S/W TROFS ARE THE PRODUCT
OF UPSTREAM MCS/MCC. NEVERTHELESS...THE TIMING OF THEIR EVENTUAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA REMAINS THE PROBLEM CHILD. CURRENTLY...A S/W
TROF IS EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
REPRIEVE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER S/W TROF OR IN THIS CASE AN MCS CURRENTLY
OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY.
SPECIFICALLY...THE LATEST WRF INDICATES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE THE FA...TO OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID TO
LATE THIS EVENING. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
FAVORABLE SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC ILLUSTRATES THIS WELL IN OUTLINING AN
ENHANCED AREA ACROSS THE ILM CWA. WILL INDICATE SEVERE TSTM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN ALL PRODUCTS...AND PLACE AN EMPHASIS ON
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WET BULB ZEROS REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX TEMPS. COMPARING THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX ILLUSTRATES THAT AS HIGH AS 10 DEGREES
SEPARATE ONE ANOTHER. AGAIN PREFERRED THE COOLER NAM MOS GIVEN
WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY...OPAQUE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PCPN. THE
HIER MAXES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOW
TO MID 90S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR HIGHS. FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH MID 70S THRUOUT...EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP
CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE
MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT
CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC
HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY
FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT
LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY...
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN
AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL
WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS
AND INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED SFC
TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING
TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 7 FT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO
DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL
AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY
THE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME
TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE
FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING
SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
610 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...LOOKING AT AN ACTIVE SEVERE WX DAY ACROSS
THE ILM CWA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHATS
DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY ARE S/W TROFS/VORTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THESE UPPER S/W TROFS ARE THE PRODUCT OF
UPSTREAM MCS/MCC. NEVERTHELESS...THE TIMING OF THEIR EVENTUAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA REMAINS THE PROBLEM CHILD. CURRENTLY...A S/W
TROF IS EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
REPRIEVE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER S/W TROF OR IN THIS CASE AN MCS CURRENTLY
OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY.
SPECIFICALLY...THE LATEST WRF INDICATES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE THE FA...TO OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID TO
LATE THIS EVENING. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
FAVORABLE SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC ILLUSTRATES THIS WELL IN OUTLINING AN
ENHANCED AREA ACROSS THE ILM CWA. WILL INDICATE SEVERE TSTM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN ALL PRODUCTS...AND PLACE AN EMPHASIS ON
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WET BULB ZEROS REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX TEMPS. COMPARING THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ILLUSTRATES THAT AS HIGH AS 10
DEGREES SEPARATE ONE ANOTHER. AGAIN PREFERRED THE COOLER NAM MOS
GIVEN WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY...OPAQUE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PCPN.
THE HIER MAXES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE
LOW TO MID 90S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR HIGHS. FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH MID 70S THRUOUT...EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP
CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE
MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT
CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC
HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY
FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT
LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY...
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN
AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL
WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR
ALL WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS AND
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS IS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED
SFC TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING
FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING
TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND
PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY THE CHOPPY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME
TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE
FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING
SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
920 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
ADJUSTED SHORT TERM POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA/WYOMING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. RECENT
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MU CAPE OF 2000-3000J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR IN PLACE. MAY STILL SEE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THINK THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A
VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED SLIDING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CURRENT WAVE OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A PAIR OF WAVES OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH...WITH A
VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WAVES BEHIND.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PARADE OF SHORT WAVES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST HIGHER INSTABILITY (2-3 KJ/KG) OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...GREATEST TO THE NORTH.
WITH THAT SAID...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND
THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IS THE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN TRAINING STORMS...AS ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE WET WITH MODELS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~160 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LAST OF
THE SHORT WAVES MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWER
VALUES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO
BE QUITE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REGARDING A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN MOVES EAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA...AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HAVE
BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN CHANCES ARE
BETTER FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
THE MODELS THEN DEVELOP A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA...AND BRING THE WESTERLIES AND HENCE THE JET STREAM FARTHER
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE WEAKER
AND ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW OR NO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID A BROAD BRUSH VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AND
WILL NEED TO MODIFY AS STORMS MOVE NEAR ANY PARTICULAR SITE. MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
ENVIRONMENT CANADA REPORTED A 55MPH WIND GUST IN MORRIS, MANITOBA
AS THE STORM APPROACHING KITTSON COUNTY MOVED THROUGH. THIS STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND MAY HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHERWISE...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY APPROACHES THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT WHERE
STORMS ARE NEAR SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE WEAKENING...WHICH MAY BE TRUE
GIVEN CURRENT MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND HOPWRF
SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH...INTO AN AREA WHERE
MLCAPE IS 2000-2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 30 KNTS.
THERE IS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHERE THESE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND TYPICALLY STORMS DO TEND TO MOVE INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. HRRR/HOPWRF UPDRAFT HELICITY INDICATE THAT THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN TOWARD MIDNIGHT (LOSS OF SOLAR)...BUT DO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM 8/9PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE WATCHING HOW ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST DEVELOPS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE DVL BASIN...AND SHOULD ENTER THE FA NEAR
MIDNIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT SURE.
IT MAY BE A BUSY LATE EVENING PERIOD ACROSS NE ND INTO THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...BUT AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION T+ IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
TSTMS ERUPTED IN SE ND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN AREA WITH
ML CAPES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE AS SFC TEMPS HIT 90F AND DEW
PTS IN THE LOW 70S. ACTIVITY IS NOW SPREADING EAST INTO WCNTRL MN.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM DVL-GFK-TVF HOLDING TEMPS DOWN ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH LOCALLY...THEN FAR NRN VALLEY ENOUGH SUN TO GENERATE
ISOLD STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP REGIME FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT AS DO EXPECT A LIKELY INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
AS THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE MOVES FROM WRN WYOMING INTO WRN DAKOTAS
BY 12Z THU. 500 MB WAVE MOVES THRU THURSDAY WITH AND WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BULK SHEAR IS BETTER FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS BUT CLOUDS MAY RESTRICT HEATING. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF
THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
FRIDAY MORNING GENERALLY DRY WITH NEXT SFC LOW AND SHORT WAVE DUE
TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST FRI
MIDDAY-AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. SOME SEVERE PSBL WITH THIS SHORT WAVE
IF WE GET SOME HEATING FRI. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS BUT HESITANT YET TO PULL POPS
FOR SATURDAY DUE TO POOR RUN TO RUN TIMING OF THESE WAVES.
FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER
OVERALL WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. AN
OVERALL NW/W FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR CONVECTION COULD OCCUR BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WITH MOST AREAS PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. KDVL MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE THUNDER OVERNIGHT...LIKELY TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THUNDER CHANCES DEFINITELY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY...JUST NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT
(MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION...KDVL...KGFK...KTVF). &&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
648 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND HOPWRF
SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH...INTO AN AREA WHERE
MLCAPE IS 2000-2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 30 KNTS.
THERE IS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHERE THESE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND TYPICALLY STORMS DO TEND TO MOVE INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. HRRR/HOPWRF UPDRAFT HELICITY INDICATE THAT THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN TOWARD MIDNIGHT (LOSS OF SOLAR)...BUT DO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM 8/9PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE WATCHING HOW ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST DEVELOPS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE DVL BASIN...AND SHOULD ENTER THE FA NEAR
MIDNIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT SURE.
IT MAY BE A BUSY LATE EVENING PERIOD ACROSS NE ND INTO THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...BUT AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION T+ IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
TSTMS ERUPTED IN SE ND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN AREA WITH
ML CAPES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE AS SFC TEMPS HIT 90F AND DEW
PTS IN THE LOW 70S. ACTIVITY IS NOW SPREADING EAST INTO WCNTRL MN.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM DVL-GFK-TVF HOLDING TEMPS DOWN ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH LOCALLY...THEN FAR NRN VALLEY ENOUGH SUN TO GENERATE
ISOLD STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP REGIME FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT AS DO EXPECT A LIKELY INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
AS THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE MOVES FROM WRN WYOMING INTO WRN DAKOTAS
BY 12Z THU. 500 MB WAVE MOVES THRU THURSDAY WITH AND WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BULK SHEAR IS BETTER FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS BUT CLOUDS MAY RESTRICT HEATING. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF
THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
FRIDAY MORNING GENERALLY DRY WITH NEXT SFC LOW AND SHORT WAVE DUE
TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST FRI
MIDDAY-AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. SOME SEVERE PSBL WITH THIS SHORT WAVE
IF WE GET SOME HEATING FRI. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS BUT HESITANT YET TO PULL POPS
FOR SATURDAY DUE TO POOR RUN TO RUN TIMING OF THESE WAVES.
FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER
OVERALL WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. AN
OVERALL NW/W FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR CONVECTION COULD OCCUR BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WITH MOST AREAS PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. KDVL MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE THUNDER OVERNIGHT...LIKELY TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THUNDER CHANCES DEFINITELY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY...JUST NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT
(MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION...KDVL...KGFK...KTVF). &&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
INSTABILITY (~2 KJ/KG) OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT THE TIME THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE ARRIVES...WITH INCREASING SHEAR. WILL
PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE IN OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE LARGE
HAIL/WIND THREAT FROM THIS. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY
MID EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE
EAST. ELSEWHERE...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SPREAD AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST. POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06
UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL
LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK
SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY.
SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00
UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A
FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER
....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR
DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD
FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TOWARDS EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER WAVE (SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ARRIVES...AND DID INSERT T+ FOR THIS AREA.
INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLD-SCATTERED.
THERE REMAINS LESS CERTAINTY TO THE EAST...WHERE
THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE
GREATER...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...AND SEVERE
APPEARS UNLIKELY (ALTHOUGH STILL POSSIBLE).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.
STARTING TO GET T-STORM DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF DEVILS
LAKE...ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH
WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EAST OF A LANGDON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 30%-40%
RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. IN THE
WARM SECTOR TO THE WEST (MAINLY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA)...ANTICIPATE
MLCAPE TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30 KNTS). THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KNT JET STREAK.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD TO SCATTERED
(GIVEN LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE)...DO THINK THESE FACTORS ARE ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE STORMS (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS). ONLY MAJOR UPDATE WILL BE TO EXTEND AREA OF THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE WX STORY AND HWO (SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH THEIR MORNING UPDATE).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT WV
LOOP SHOWS SOME DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL RIDE OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC PATTERN IS VERY
WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM
INCOMING SHORTWAVES AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE...BUT SOME
STORMS PULSING UP ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CAM MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TO KEEP 20-40 POPS
GOING...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING TO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ALTHOUGH THE MODELS BRING
ANOTHER RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE IN...WITH VARIATIONS ON EXACT
TIMING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
MORE MOISTURE...AND CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 2000 J/KG. SHEAR
VALUES ARE AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS IN SOME PLACES AND SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A BIG EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HAVE POPS RAMPING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS HAVE THE MAIN RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...CLOUDS AND A TINY BIT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM REACHING 80...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MID 80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SOUTH WINDS AND LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD KEEP LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS
PERIOD...BUT THINK THAT BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MOIST AIR. THURSDAY
HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE AS PRECIP LIMITS HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT
STILL RATHER HUMID.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING
OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A TROF DIGGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...KEEPING MORE OF A SW FLOW REGIME OVER THE
AREA. VARIOUS IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THRU THE FLOW
BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA EACH DAY...AND ALSO KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE TAMPED DOWN A
BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ON THE WARM
SIDE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SEVERAL CHALLENGES THIS FCST PERIOD. AREA OF MVFR CUMULUS IN NW MN
MAY IMPACT TVF/BJI THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO WITH SFC HEATING MAY MIX OUT
SOME INTO THE LOW END VFR RANGE. OTHERWISE ISSUE IS TSTM COVERAGE.
I PUT VCTS IN ALL TAF SITES MID TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS FEEL
COVERAGE OF STORMS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT IT, BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
ENOUGH AT ANY ONE SITE TO GO PREDOMINATE. FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING IF AREAS DO GET RAIN COULD GET SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOWER
CLOUDS BUT AS USUAL THAT TOO THIS FAR OUT IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN.
WINDS BEMIDJI MORE EASTERLY WITH MORE VARIABLE IN THE RRV WITH A
MORE SOUTHEAST WIND AT DVL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.
STARTING TO GET T-STORM DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF DEVILS
LAKE...ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH
WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EAST OF A LANGDON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 30%-40%
RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. IN THE
WARM SECTOR TO THE WEST (MAINLY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA)...ANTICIPATE
MLCAPE TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30 KNTS). THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KNT JET STREAK.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD TO SCATTERED
(GIVEN LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE)...DO THINK THESE FACTORS ARE ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE STORMS (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS). ONLY MAJOR UPDATE WILL BE TO EXTEND AREA OF THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE WX STORY AND HWO (SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH THEIR MORNING UPDATE).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT WV
LOOP SHOWS SOME DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL RIDE OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC PATTERN IS VERY
WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM
INCOMING SHORTWAVES AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE...BUT SOME
STORMS PULSING UP ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CAM MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TO KEEP 20-40 POPS
GOING...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING TO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ALTHOUGH THE MODELS BRING
ANOTHER RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE IN...WITH VARIATIONS ON EXACT
TIMING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
MORE MOISTURE...AND CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 2000 J/KG. SHEAR
VALUES ARE AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS IN SOME PLACES AND SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A BIG EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HAVE POPS RAMPING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS HAVE THE MAIN RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...CLOUDS AND A TINY BIT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM REACHING 80...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MID 80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SOUTH WINDS AND LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD KEEP LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS
PERIOD...BUT THINK THAT BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MOIST AIR. THURSDAY
HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE AS PRECIP LIMITS HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT
STILL RATHER HUMID.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING
OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A TROF DIGGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...KEEPING MORE OF A SW FLOW REGIME OVER THE
AREA. VARIOUS IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THRU THE FLOW
BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA EACH DAY...AND ALSO KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE TAMPED DOWN A
BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ON THE WARM
SIDE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SOME SITES HAVE GONE DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORIES WITH VIS BETWEEN
3-5SM. THINK THIS WILL LAST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE ALL SITES
ARE MVFR AGAIN. THERE IS A BIT OF 1000 FT CIGS OUT OVER
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...BUT THINK IT WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR TAF SITES. OTHERWISE THE CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
908 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE
EAST. ELSEWHERE...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SPREAD AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST. POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06
UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL
LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK
SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY.
SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00
UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A
FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER
....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR
DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD
FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AFTER
PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER 00 UTC WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06
UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL
LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK
SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY.
SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00
UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A
FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER
....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR
DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD
FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AFTER
PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER 00 UTC WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
NO CHANGES TO SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS MID PORTIONS OF CWA NEAR MORNING AND
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO
SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTN AND REALIZE THE WARMEST TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEST OF DEVILS
LAKE...WITH VERY LITTLE NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL
KEEP ISOLD STORMS IN ACROSS THE NORTH BUT REMOVE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER MAY SEE SOME INCREASE FROM
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SRN CANADA...AND BOTH NAM AND HRRR MIN TEMPS
WERE A BIT WARMER THAN PREV FCST SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED DID USE THE NAM12 AS A STARTING
POINT AND DROPPED THEM A COUPLE OF DEG TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. OVERALL MID 60S LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE EVENING CONVECTION. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING NW TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
WILL ADDRESS LOCALIZED CONVECTION WITH HIGHER POPS AND KEEP LOW
CHANCE ELSE WHERE. ALSO INCREASING POPS A BIT OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST OVER ROSEAU AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES. NON
SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER IS STILL HIGH (3 TO 4 UNITS) OVER
NORTHEAST ND AND HAVE HAD REPORTS OF WEAK FUNNELS OVER THE LAST
HOUR (NEAR WARROAD...A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHEST AFOREMENTIONED
VALUES...SO CONTINUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK FUNNELS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA.
THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE HOWEVER WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR STORMS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
REMAIN BLO SEVERE LIMITS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WEAK
FUNNELS WITH THESE STORMS AS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF
ROTATION AND WEAK FUNNELS. SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN FA SO A FEW STORMS COULD PULSE UP CLOSE TO SEVERE
LIMITS. WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 60S
AS DEWPOINTS HOLD UP.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND HOLDS INTO MID
WEEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWING WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSES WHICH MAY RIDE
THROUGH RIDGE. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TOMORROW
MAY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
A STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL
BUT WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF DAILY CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY
ZONAL OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS...ALTHOUGH NARROWING IN ON
THE BEST TIME FRAME IS DIFFICULT DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS. ALTHOUGH HAVE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS...PLENTY OF DRY HOURS
ARE EXPECTED. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND FROM DVL-GFK-BJI SHOULD INCREASE NEAR
MORNING HOURS AND LIFT OVER TVF BY NOONTIME...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO THE UPPER MVFR RANGE AT TVF AND BJI. WILL KEEP VFR
CIGS AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING AND GFSMOS...SHOWING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAKES THE MOST SENSE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RA OR
VCNTY TS AT THESE SITES AS WELL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WARMER
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
800 PM UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO LINE
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING POCKETS OF TREE
DAMAGE. COULDNT FIND ANY ASOS OR MESONETS IN OUR AREA THAT
RECORDED GUSTS PAST 48 MPH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EVEN THESE WINDS ARE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TOPPLE SOME TREES GIVEN HOW WET OUR SOILS ARE.
ALLOWED THE SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CLEANED UP THE PRODUCTS
TO REFLECT THIS.
CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. EVEN
AN INCH OF RAIN CAUSED PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW CREEKS
COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM TO SEE
JUST HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH S/W TROF INTERACTING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE NW TO
SE LLVL THETA E GRADIENT OVER THE OH VALLEY...GENERALLY JUST W OF
OUR CWA. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN HOW WORKED
OVER OUR AIRMASS IS...WOULD THINK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD
SNIFF OUT THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN C KY VS IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE TAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT
EVEN IT PUTS A HVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
ALLOWED HIGHER POPS TO WORK IN TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE REMAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING
IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES.
ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW
OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS
LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES
OF LATE. IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD
CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEEPING THIS SHORT...MOVING INTO FLOOD OPERATIONS AT THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF
CHANGE IN AIRMASS...READILY SEEN BY THE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED DRIER PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. 500MB
HEIGHTS TO CLIMB ABOUT 10DKM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD...SO WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. WET GROUND...WHICH WILL STILL BE WET
OVERALL LATE WEEK...WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON THE TEMPERATURES EVEN
THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 20C.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT...500MB FLOW WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL BY FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST
POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY
INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-13Z WITH
GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN...EXITING PKB AROUND 08Z
AND BKW AROUND 13Z. BEHIND THE COMPLEX...GENERAL MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY. AFTER 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT CLOUDS BY
AROUND 15Z. AFTER 20Z ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
ROLLING SOUTH THRU THE END OF PERIOD. BEHIND THIS COMPLEX GENERAL
MVFR CEILINGS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG OVERNIGHT MAY
VARY...AND TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE FASTER TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BE FASTER.
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY IFR
IN STRATUS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018-
024>029-033>038.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018-
024>029-033>038.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JB/MZ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
225 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINGERING STORMS ARE FIRING IN A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BEHIND THE
LARGE SWATH OF STORMS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR PORTSMOUTH AND WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND HAVE A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. MORE STORMS UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXISTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPSTREAM
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND MAY PERSIST AND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN A
STATE OF FLUX WITH HOW THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT
BUT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR MODEL.
IF THE LINE DEVELOPS...THE OVERNIGHT THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE A
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND COULD CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA. A DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT AND
HAVE ADDED SEVERE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AND HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...HWO...AND HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR 70.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR 100 ACROSS EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ATOP BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS WE/LL ACTUALLY GET A COUPLE OF
DAYS WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THOUGH IT
WOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE IF A LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL OHIO ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOL DAYS OF THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CLIMBING BY FRIDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON - BUT THE BULK
OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS FORCING IS WEAK. THE WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES
WASHING OUT A BIT. TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER THAN WE/VE SEEN
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SOME PRETTY STEAMY AIR COMES WITH IT - SO IT
WILL BE MUGGY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TROUGHING TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEEMS ENOUGH
THERE WITH THE WARM/MUGGY AIR THAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME ISOLATED STRAGGLERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AND THESE COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANG ON TO THUNDER
A LITTLE LONGER AT KCVG/KLUK AS THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
REDEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS COULD GET CLOSE
TO KCVG/KLUK IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WE SHOULD THEN GET INTO A PCPN
LULL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK SOME MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR TOWARD DAYBREAK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
206 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY. MORE DISTURBANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
800 PM UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO LINE
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING POCKETS OF TREE
DAMAGE. COULDNT FIND ANY ASOS OR MESONETS IN OUR AREA THAT
RECORDED GUSTS PAST 48 MPH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EVEN THESE WINDS ARE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TOPPLE SOME TREES GIVEN HOW WET OUR SOILS ARE.
ALLOWED THE SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CLEANED UP THE PRODUCTS
TO REFLECT THIS.
CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. EVEN
AN INCH OF RAIN CAUSED PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW CREEKS
COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM TO SEE
JUST HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH S/W TROF INTERACTING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE NW TO
SE LLVL THETA E GRADIENT OVER THE OH VALLEY...GENERALLY JUST W OF
OUR CWA. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN HOW WORKED
OVER OUR AIRMASS IS...WOULD THINK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD
SNIFF OUT THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN C KY VS IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE TAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT
EVEN IT PUTS A HVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
ALLOWED HIGHER POPS TO WORK IN TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE REMAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING
IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES.
ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW
OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS
LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES
OF LATE. IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD
CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE EARLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH QPF NEARING
1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. COORDINATED WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRYER WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST
POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY
INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-13Z WITH
GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN...EXITING PKB AROUND 08Z
AND BKW AROUND 13Z. BEHIND THE COMPLEX...GENERAL MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY. AFTER 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT CLOUDS BY
AROUND 15Z. AFTER 20Z ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
ROLLING SOUTH THRU THE END OF PERIOD. BEHIND THIS COMPLEX GENERAL
MVFR CEILINGS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG OVERNIGHT MAY
VARY...AND TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE FASTER TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BE FASTER.
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY IFR
IN STRATUS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018-
024>029-033>038.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...MZ/26
LONG TERM...JB/MZ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE
ARE SOME EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THANKS TO AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH... BUT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST BY A DEGREE AND UPDATED
POPS TO INCLUDE 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE HRRR AS WELL AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WERE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE 14Z.
THE HRRR SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THAT
CHANCE IS SMALL.
AC/MD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF OK/N TX THRU TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS IN NW OK HAVE BEEN
AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM TSRA IN SW KS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING NEAR AND N OF KGAG-KPNC. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
S WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CHANGES IN SPEED
AND DIRECTION.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN KANSAS HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING CHANGEABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING IN THAT AREA...ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONDITIONS IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...SO OUR
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT 10 PERCENT THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF STORMS CAN
OVERCOME THE LACK OF SUPPORT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ITS SMALL MEANDERINGS WILL ALLOW MINOR DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MODEL DEW POINT FORECASTS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED
TO USE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...SINCE IT
APPEARS TO BE MORE REASONABLE THAN ANY AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SUPPORTS
RETAINING OUR HEAT ADVISORY...AND ADDING LOGAN AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES LESS HOT...AND PERHAPS A TAD LESS HUMID. ASSUMING THIS
HAPPENS...THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT TIME AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 101 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 71 99 72 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 99 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 98 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-
008-012-013-019-020-026.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-010-011-
017-018-024-025-027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
946 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST BY A DEGREE AND UPDATED
POPS TO INCLUDE 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE HRRR AS WELL AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WERE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE 14Z.
THE HRRR SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THAT
CHANCE IS SMALL.
AC/MD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF OK/N TX THRU TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS IN NW OK HAVE BEEN
AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM TSRA IN SW KS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING NEAR AND N OF KGAG-KPNC. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
S WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CHANGES IN SPEED
AND DIRECTION.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN KANSAS HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING CHANGEABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING IN THAT AREA...ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONDITIONS IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...SO OUR
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT 10 PERCENT THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF STORMS CAN
OVERCOME THE LACK OF SUPPORT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ITS SMALL MEANDERINGS WILL ALLOW MINOR DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MODEL DEW POINT FORECASTS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED
TO USE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...SINCE IT
APPEARS TO BE MORE REASONABLE THAN ANY AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SUPPORTS
RETAINING OUR HEAT ADVISORY...AND ADDING LOGAN AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES LESS HOT...AND PERHAPS A TAD LESS HUMID. ASSUMING THIS
HAPPENS...THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT TIME AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 101 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 71 99 72 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 99 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 98 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-
008-012-013-019-020-026.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-011-017-
018-024-025-027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
136 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE EARLIER...NEARLY SOLID LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
/WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/...HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO 2 OR
3 CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION /ONE ENTERING WARREN COUNTY...AND THE
SECOND/LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/.
BOTH AREAS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT/MID LEVEL VORT MAXES.
THESE POCKETS OF ENERGY /ABOVE A SLOWLY NEWD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT/ WILL LIKELY DRIFT ENE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS PWATS
INCREASE BY ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVERNIGHT /TO BETWEEN
1.5-1.75 INCHES/...SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...BEFORE REACHING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AFTER
08Z TUESDAY.
A MUCH MILDER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S REMAIN STEADY...OR SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 60F IN THE COLDEST
RURAL VALLEYS UP NORTH...TO ABOUT 66 OR 67F IN THE METRO AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES BRINGS A LOW AND SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL BE
SPLITTING THE STATE NW/SE EARLY...WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION
PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY /WITH MODELS INDICATING
THAT SOME SORT OF SECONDARY LOW WILL TRY TO FORM NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY LATE DAY/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD...GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J BY AFTERNOON. WIND
FIELDS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH PWATS QUICKLY SURGING UP OVER
1.5"...SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION COULD PRESENT LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS. WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .50" TO
1.00" POSSIBLE. DON/T PLAN ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...JUST
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IN OUR DISCUSSIONS AND MENTIONED SOME
TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/ZONES.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW MID JULY NORMALS IN NW HALF. HIGHS LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE LWR/MID 80S IN THE SE.
MAIN COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS CWA FROM GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT...BUT WEAK LOW ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND KEEPING MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH.
WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SE WITH LOWS HANGING NEAR
70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED "DEEP" SFC LOW ALONG
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NWRN
ONTARIO WILL MIGRATE EWD THRU QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST. CENTRAL PA
IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR
/JULY 11-20/.
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WED NGT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE DRY WX
DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A VERY LOW
RISK (20% OR LESS) OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ALLEGHENIES. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE NRN TIER LKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK TROUGHING LKLY ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS VERY
DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DWINDLING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MARYLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE KMDT AND KLNS 10-12Z. SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF KBFD WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS RESULTING FROM MOIST SOUTH-SERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS
KBFD IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDS. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT BRIEF IFR CONDS OVR MOST OTHER CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS...MAINLY
BTWN 06Z-12Z.
EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS TO LIFT BY LATE AM...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
THRU THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN.
HOWEVER...SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE PM
HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN SPOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MULTIPLE IMPULSES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...TEMPS ARE DROPPING A LITTLE BELOW THE FCST CURVE
ACROSS THE MTNS/FHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT THIS MORNING IN LEFTOVER MCS
COLD POOL INDUCED THETA/E AIR. OTHERWISE EXPECT PERSISTENT DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS TO SLOWLY WANE AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A SLOW DIURNAL TEMP
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT UPDATE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RETURNS OVER
THE ERN PIEDMONT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS THERE...ELSEWHERE WILL
INTRODUCE A LOWERING POP TREND THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AS OF 1045 PM...THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE FOR ALL OUR ZONES.
OVERNIGHT...CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS
IL/IN...WHERE A DIGGING TROF IS INTERSECTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THESE STORMS
CONGEALING INTO ANOTHER MCS...AND TAKES THAT ACTIVITY SOUTH TO THE
TN/NC BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OTHER CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
TREND...EXCEPT GENERALLY KEEP THE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST ACRS
CENTRAL KY/TN. THE 00Z NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR. GIVEN
THAT MOST OF THE UPSTREAM AIR HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THIS EVENING/S
MCS...I THINK THE HRRR IS NOT THE WAY TO GO...AND EXPECT ONLY A SLGT
CHC TO LOW-END CHC OF ANY CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWFA THRU EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SO I HAVE CUT BACK POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S.
THE FCST FOR TUESDAY LOOKS TO DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SECOND MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SUFFER DUE
DO EITHER ITS CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. HIRES GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE NC
ZONES BEING CONVECTION FREE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT MCS TRACK IS
PROGGED BEYOND THE PERIOD AND WILL BE AIDED BY THE PROGRESSION OF
THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE
CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PLACED
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST IN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNSTABLE/SHEARED AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OF 215 PM MONDAY...MAIN ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TUE
NIGHT WHEN A RATHER RARE JULY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEING DRIVEN BY A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SWINGING SE FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TUE
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS RATHER MUTED IN ITS QPF RESPONSE TUE NIGHT AS
IT LIMITS CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT.
THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH DEEP LAYER NW FLOW IN PLACE.
THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
NAM SOLUTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL INDEED BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS JUST SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS SURVIVING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WIND SHEAR
REMAINS ELEVATED.
AFTER THE BKN-SCT CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSES...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY WED. SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN LINE ON WED...AND SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WED SHOULD BE DRY THANKS
TO THE NW FLOW AND RESULTANT LOWER RH`S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT
A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER TO NEAR
CLIMO VALUES ON THU AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE NE/E.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM PLACING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TRACK BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND AND TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE SE STATES. IN
ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH A LEE TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. THIS SET UP IS FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH MONDAY AND SUGGESTS A MAINLY DIURNAL MODE TO THE CONVECTION
WHICH COMMENCES ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD ADVECT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE AFTERNOON
CONVEC...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VSBY ARND DAYBREAK AS
TDD/S ARE RUNNING ARND 3 F CURRENTLY AND PREVIOUS LIGHT PRECIP AT
THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL REMAIN MID TO HIGH LEVEL WITH SCT CU AND LOW
END GUSTS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON. PROB30 TSTM AFT 21Z STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE. WIND DIR MAY BE TRICKY WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLY
INTRODUCED LATE EVENING AHEAD OF WRN MCS. FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON
SYNOPTIC FLOW LIGHT NW/LY BEFORE 19Z...THEN BACKING SW/LY AS LEE TROF
DEVELOPS.
ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KGSP COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY ARND DAYBREAK
IN FAIRLY LOW TDD/S AND A MOIST SFC LAYER FROM EARLIER PRECIP. GOOD
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW LOW TO MODERATE GUSTS MOST SITES
ALIGNED SW/LY NON/MTNS AND UPVALLEY AT KAVL. PROB30 ALL SITES BY
LATER AFTERNOON AS CONVEC COULD DEVELOP ALONG OF APPROACHING MCS
OUTFLOWS AND WITHIN A DEVELOPING BROAD LEE TROF. TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDS IN SHRA/TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
459 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND CLEAN UP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PRODUCTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS
ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD AND
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH AT TIMES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED. THIS REGION WILL BE AN AREA WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH TIME
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH EAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG. ALSO...A
WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL SUSTAIN STORM STRUCTURE AND
CONTINUED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT AND WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY... ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET AT ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR CONVECTION
THAT IS THE RESULT OF WAA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY A
DECAYING MCS FURTHER EAST. THE HRRR FORMS A LINE OF THESE TWO
DISTURBANCES AND CARRIES THEM SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE PRE STORM AIRMASS AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 4500-6500
J/KG. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY. THE WALNUT RIDGE AWOS STATION HAS ALREADY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1935Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROHIBIT THE TYPE OF
TEMPS THAT WE SAW TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE 90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME OPPRESSIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN 22-23C. THAT CORRELATES TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. CONFIDENT IN THE NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW IF NOT EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
RETROGRADING WEST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS BY MID WEEK.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/JBR MAINLY AFTER 14/20Z WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT JBR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION
OF SHRA/VCTS OUT AFTER 15/01Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS TONIGHT
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY... ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET AT ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR CONVECTION
THAT IS THE RESULT OF WAA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY A
DECAYING MCS FURTHER EAST. THE HRRR FORMS A LINE OF THESE TWO
DISTURBANCES AND CARRIES THEM SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE PRE STORM AIRMASS AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 4500-6500
J/KG. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY. THE WALNUT RIDGE AWOS STATION HAS ALREADY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1935Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROHIBIT THE TYPE OF
TEMPS THAT WE SAW TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE 90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME OPPRESSIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN 22-23C. THAT CORRELATES TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. CONFIDENT IN THE NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW IF NOT EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
RETROGRADING WEST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS BY MID WEEK.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/JBR MAINLY AFTER 14/20Z WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT JBR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION
OF SHRA/VCTS OUT AFTER 15/01Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS TONIGHT
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH COPIOUS REPORTS
OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALREADY POURING IN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
ALTHOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40
WILL BE HARDEST HIT. HRRR SHOWS THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA BY 23Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CELLS RE-
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE MID STATE WELL INTO THE EVENING. LOOK
FOR THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING,
USHERING IN DRIER (BUT NOT MUCH COOLER) WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK WHERE THEY
WERE, WITH HEAT INDICES RETURNING TO THE LOW 100`S, JUST SHY OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 89 69 90 / 50 20 10 10
CROSSVILLE 68 84 65 84 / 60 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 73 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
WAVERLY 73 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY FOR BNA AND CSV. PLACED TEMPO GROUP AT THOSE TWO
TERMINALS AND LEFT VCTS AT CKV DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY. SFC FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREAS
THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING. DROPPED BNA TO MVFR AND CSV TO LIFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS.
REAGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
UPDATE...
A WARM, MUGGY AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOWARD THE
AREA. MORNING CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MRX`S CWA. ACROSS MIDDLE TN AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A
WEAK SFC BASED CAP. BY 18Z 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH NO CIN REMAINING. STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE PLATEAU FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THEN
PUSHING SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE 12Z OHX RAOB INDICATED 40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL DESPITE A WARM
THERMAL PROFILE. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE CONDITIONAL ON
INTERACTIONS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT ONCE COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND LINE
SEGMENTS BECOME THE MODE OF CHOICE.
AS FAR AS THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE.
REAGAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 74 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 89 69 90 / 50 20 10 10
CROSSVILLE 69 84 65 84 / 60 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 74 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 74 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
WAVERLY 74 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
A WARM, MUGGY AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOWARD THE
AREA. MORNING CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MRX`S CWA. ACROSS MIDDLE TN AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A
WEAK SFC BASED CAP. BY 18Z 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH NO CIN REMAINING. STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE PLATEAU FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THEN
PUSHING SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE 12Z OHX RAOB INDICATED 40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL DESPITE A WARM
THERMAL PROFILE. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE CONDITIONAL ON
INTERACTIONS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT ONCE COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND LINE
SEGMENTS BECOME THE MODE OF CHOICE.
AS FAR AS THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE.
REAGAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 74 91 71 / 60 60 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 92 73 89 71 / 60 60 20 10
CROSSVILLE 86 70 84 67 / 60 60 20 10
COLUMBIA 94 74 93 71 / 60 60 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 95 73 93 71 / 60 60 30 10
WAVERLY 93 74 91 71 / 60 60 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...AND LESS HUMID
AIR...WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL COVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS LOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WAS HIGHEST IN GREENBRIER COUNTY DOWN TO TAZEWELL COUNTY. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME SINCE STORMS MOTION WILL LIMIT
HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THOUGH RATES MAY BE HIGH.
UPPER TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO CROSSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING.
HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT USING THE
TIMING OF THE HRRR AND SPC HRRR. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DROP OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE
UPSLOPE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STAYED CLOSED TO COOLED GUIDANCE BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. AS USUAL...AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON THE
DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT MAY BE ONE OF THE DRIEST
TIME PERIODS WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE. THIS PATTERN IS BEING ATTRIBUTED
TO BOTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF SQUELCHING
ANY CONVECTION AND TRENDING TEMPERATURES COOLER...AS COMPARED TO
READINGS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. OUR SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TWO FORMS ON DIFFERENT DAYS.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
DISSIPATE QUICKLY..AND LIKELY BE ONLY SHOWERS.
ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT EAST...AND A
WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO HELP INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LIFT THAT PURE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE. THIS EXTRA LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY REACH THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND THUS KEEP THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WE WILL RETURN TO A WETTER
PATTERN...ONE NOT TOO UNLIKE WHAT HAS BEEN THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF JULY. THE NORTHERN JET WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN...BRINGING SHORTWAVE AFTER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL HAVE THE AFFECT OF RETROGRADING
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BACK TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME
PERIODS WILL HAVE A GREATER COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO AGAIN HEAD INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE OFFERS A
SOLUTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THESE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WARM A LITTLE BIT MORE
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TWO VERSIONS OF THE HRRR BRINGS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TIMING OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. LOWER
PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT LOCAL AIRPORTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS THAT
WILL BE COMING OUT OF OHIO AND KENTUCKY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WILL
CLEAR OUT KLYH AND KDAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...
OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS EXPERIENCING
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
203 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE ERODED AND MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
PICTURES INDICATED MUCH OF THE LEFTOVER CIRRUS FROM THE STORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO ERODED. FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN A
RELATE AREA OF MORE STABLE AIR BUT SHOULD NOW BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD COVER.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM
OF THE AREA PER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL REACH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER 6PM. AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH BY THEN TO SUPPORT SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO MONDAY...CLOUDS
HOLDING READINGS STEADY DURING THE MORNING...THEN A RAPID RISE
WITH RETURN OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRINGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...ESP FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. MAY NEED TO
RENEW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PENDING RADAR/MODEL TRENDS LATER
TODAY.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
ADVERTISING LOWER NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY COMPARED LAST FEW DAYS.
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY AND ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. CERTAINLY
CAN`T RULE OUT A POP-UP DIURNAL SHOWER...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...AND WILL OMIT ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE
BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TWO VERSIONS OF THE HRRR BRINGS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TIMING OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. LOWER
PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT LOCAL AIRPORTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS THAT
WILL BE COMING OUT OF OHIO AND KENTUCKY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WILL
CLEAR OUT KLYH AND KDAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...
OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS EXPERIENCING
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
955 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...PCPN OVER IA CONTINUES TO RUN INTO DRY AIR AS IT
APPROACHES FAR ERN IA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY DECENT RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
ON THU AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION APPROACHES. THE MAIN THRUST OF 850 MB THETAE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN PWS WILL INCREASE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR SO WENT ONLY WITH
A CHANCE OF TSTORMS. PCPN WILL LIKELY START AS LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING SPREADING EWD AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO AREAS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE CAPES
RATHER LOW. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU EVE
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND HIGHER CAPE APPROACHING THE IL BORDER.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES OF SVR TSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
BORDER LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THU AM WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING SOUTH CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING AND
TO LAKE MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOIST
SELY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTH CENTRAL WI SEEING 1.0-3.0 KFT CIGS SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN OR LIGHT FOG AT NIGHT. THE REDUCED
CIGS MAY HOLD OFF IN SE WI UNTIL THU EVE AND WILL ALSO HAVE VSBY
REDUCTIONS FROM THE PCPN AND LIGHT FOG DURING THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS SPILLING ACROSS SRN WI.
LATER IN THE NIGHT PRONOUNCED 850 SOUTHERLY LLJ APPROACHES SW WI
THOUGH AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE PROGGD TO STAY LARGELY WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED THOUGH
LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PROXIMITY TO THE LLJ SUGGESTS SOME POP PRIOR
TO 12Z SEEMS PRUDENT IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 LLJ PROGGD TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO SRN WI AND FAVOR A PATTERN
OF SIGNIFICANT MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION. ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS SHOWS
MOIST AXIS NOT FAR AWAY IN MN AND IA. IN ADDITION THE MID LEVELS
SHOW SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AIDING FURTHER ON ALREADY FAVORABLE VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD PROVIDED BY LLJ. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING AN INITIAL SURGE
IN THE MORNING WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE NAM/ECMWF IMPLY SHOW ONE MAIN QPF AREA. SHOULD ANY CLEARING TAKE
PLACE WITH A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT INTO SRN WI...THEN SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE PER SWODY2 MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM DURING ANY OF THE CONVECTION IN
THAT TIMEFRAME SHOW MINIMAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED CAPE. 925
TEMPS RAMP UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S CELSIUS IN THE FAR SOUTH SO IF
THAT WARM SECTOR CAN MAKE GROUND INTO THE CWA WITH SOME
CLEARING...WILL NEED TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING WITH MODELS TAKING MOST OF THE
FORCING WITH INITIAL WARM-AIR ADVECTION SURGE WITH THE 500 MB SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z FRIDAY.
NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PCPN WITH LINGERING LOW-LAYER FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH THE NAM LAYING THE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NRN FORECAST AREA AND THE GFS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH. MODELS EITHER KEEP THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS AREA OR LIFT
IT BACK ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
925 MB TEMPS RISE TO 27-28C...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AROUND 25C BY 00Z
SATURDAY. THOUGH SOME CHANCE FOR LOWER VALUES IF THERE IS MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN FORECAST...BLENDED
VALUES AND MOS GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SW
WINDS ASSURING EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL GET INTO THE WARM AIR. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE 90 TO 95 RANGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
DRY INITIALLY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NAM A BIT
FASTER AND STRONGER WITH AN MCV/COMPACT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. MODEL
VARIANCE WITH LOCATION OF WARM FRONT AND 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
LEADS TO DIFFERING LOCATIONS AND TRACKS OF EXPECTED MCS. WILL HOLD
POPS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD CHANCE POPS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY.
925 MB TEMPS IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD AS FRIDAY AND WILL ONLY DROP
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO AS RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY AFFAIR...THOUGH
TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN COULD KEEP HIGHS EVEN COOLER THAN
FORECAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
AREA WILL SEE SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING UP THE LEADING FLANK OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.
WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
IMPINGE ON SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH...WITH DIFFERING TIMING...
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES LEADING TO VARYING MOVEMENT
AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. CONSENSUS SOLUTION BRINGS LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL HUMID WITH HEAT
INDICES OF UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ECMWF TRIES TO BRUSH SRN CWA WITH PRECIPITATION FROM A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PASSING TO THE SOUTH OVER IL MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. MOST MODELS TRENDING DRIER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH
DRY/STABLE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WITH LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOW LEVELS REMAINING QUITE DRY. IMPRESSIVE LLJ TAKES AIM AT SRN WI
FOR THURSDAY WITH DECENT THERMAL/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED. SO HIGH
POPS LOOK GOOD. SREF MVFR CIG PROBS SHOW GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACRS NRN WI ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
TODAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LK MI WITH
SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS/FRONTS AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WV IMAGERY SHOWED ONE LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE PLUS A
REMAINING MLCAPE AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG ALLOWING FOR SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO LINGER FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
THESE SLOWLY WANING AND EXITING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. ELSEWHERE...
CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AXIS ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW. EARLY
MORNING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAINED WARM...IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S...ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.
NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 14.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS IN
GOOD/TIGHT AGREEMENT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EAST THIS MORNING
AND HGTS RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. TREND
FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THE RISING HGTS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT BUT RIDGING ALOFT STILL BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS BY 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...FORCING SIGNALS ARE WEAK TODAY...WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE AXIS GENERALLY WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES SOUTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING AND DEEPER NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND IT. DEW
POINTS ARE PROGGED TO HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S TODAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG OF SB/MU CAPE. MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH
PART OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO ROTATE SOUTH/WEST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A WEAK SFC-850MB TROUGH FRONT AS WELL. WILL LEAVE A 20
PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/
DRYING BEHIND THE SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY WIN OUT AND DIURNAL
HEATING WANES. DRY/QUIET TONIGHT AS WEAK BUBBLE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND HGTS RISE ALOFT. 925-
850MB TEMPS COOL TODAY...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO ABOUT
850MB. MIXED 925-850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-MID
80S TODAY. COOLER/DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH LOWS OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI LOOKING TO DIP TO AROUND 50. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY THEN TRENDED TOWARD COOLER
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATER
WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
14.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE WED...THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION WED NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR A LEAST A COUPLE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU/THU NIGHT. TREND
TENDS TO FAVOR STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE
SHORTWAVES LATER WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS THEY APPROACH/MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.
SOME SIGNAL FOR SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO ALREADY RETURN TO THE WEST END
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GFS/CAN-GEM APPEAR
WAY TO FAST WITH THIS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OVER
WESTERN MN/IA AT 00Z THU AND THE MOISTURE/CAPE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AXES ALL REMAIN WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT WED DRY. MOISTURE/CAPE
AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DO ALL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST
INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT.
THIS WITH INCREASE LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SFC-700MB TROUGH/FRONT...AND UNDER FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE SHORTWAVES. CONTINUED TREND
OF SPREADING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER ROUGHLY THE WEST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...THEN 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THU. CONTINUED 40-60 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU
NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WOULD PUSH EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THU/THU EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 2
INCH RANGE AND CAPE/DEEPER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...
WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 14.00Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR RISING
HGTS OVER THE REGION FRI/SAT. HOWEVER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS/NORTHERN ROCKIES THESE DAYS AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST BY FRI NIGHT SAT. BY SAT NIGHT/SUN
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT/MON. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY FRI
AND ESPECIALLY BY SUN/MON...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE
FRI-MON PERIOD IS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE.
HGTS LOOKING TO RISE FRI...BUT FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH MODELS
TRYING TO RIPPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES THRU THE FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY TO BE IN THE AREA AS WELL. WOULD THINK IN THE WAKE OF
THE THU SYSTEM FRI WOULD BE DRY...BUT CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA NOT UNREASONABLE. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...
WITH A NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION FRI NIGHT. ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT LOOK
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON...AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. MESO-SCALE DETAILS OF SHORTWAVES AND
LOW LEVEL/SFC TROUGHS/FRONTS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN IN THE DAY 6/7
TIME-FRAME...BUT WILL PLAY ROLES IN LOCATION/TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES. SOME OF THE PERIODS FROM FRI THRU MON WILL END UP DRY. T
GIVEN THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7
PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME. WITH
THE HIGHER HGTS AND PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL
FLOW...WARMER AIR IS PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR DAYS 4-7 LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING
AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THESE TO BECOME A CEILING BY LATE MORNING...BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
14.06Z NAM AND 14.09Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN DRIER SO
WILL STICK WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. THUS...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
.UPDATE...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
PASS TUE AM SO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. NLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUE WITH THE
FLOW TO TURN ONSHORE OVER ERN WI. THE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WIND
SHIFT MAY SET OFF ISOLD SHOWERS OR TSTORMS BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE PCPN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TUE AM
WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS AT 3.5-5.0 KFT DEVELOPING BY LATE TUE AM INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN WI LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR TSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS TUE NT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
INSTABILITY IS ON THE RISE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER 2500 J/KG AND NO CIN PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS
AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP IN THAT AREA AS OF 20Z AS A SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR MODEL AND OTHER MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN AND
THEY HAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. ALL OF SOUTHERN WI IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THROUGH 02Z OR 9 PM.
THE HIGH CAPE FORECAST OF 3500-4500 J/KG /DEPENDING ON MODEL/ AND
HIGH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS SUPPORTS RAPID SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.
AFTER THESE STORMS ROLL THROUGH... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW CAPE AND LIGHT QPF... SO SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS THEY
COLLIDE WITH THAT WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE EXITS THE DAKOTAS
AND PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION WITH
MAINLY WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE UNTIL EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST. 700
MB DEWPOINTS ARE LOW...BUT BEGIN TO RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 850
MB TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE 850 MB RIDGE OVER
WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB DEWPOINTS DROP THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
A BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
700 MB DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECEDES TO THE EAST...A
RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SLOW TO RISE INITIALLY BUT THEN INCREASES
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ONE SHORTWAVE
EXITING WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS INTO
THE NORTHWEST U.S.
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF TO
LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE 00Z ECMWF PUSHES A MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA.
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF MOVES A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS
STILL HAS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY THEN FINALLY
KICKING OUT A SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
BOTH MODELS SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FEET ARE SPREADING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING DEWPOINT TEMPS AND
WSW WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST MN NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING
FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE DOLORES MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES MIGRATING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA INTO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE DOLORES IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA THIS MORNING
AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGESTS PWATS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
1.5-1.7+ INCHES SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ACROSS THE
DESERTS THIS MORNING...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE
SOUTH OF PHOENIX AS OF 09Z WITH A WEAK WESTWARD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SERVING AS THE TRIGGER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE`S APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...I`LL HANG ONTO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL DAYBREAK /AT
WHICH POINT MOST OF THE OUTFLOWS SHOULD HAVE LOST THEIR MOMENTUM/.
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A FAIRLY LOW-GRADE
MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...AS WELL AS ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS SOUTH OF GILA BEND. INHERITED POPS KEPT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OUT OF THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND THIS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE. IF ANYTHING FIRES OVER THE PHOENIX METRO...IT`LL BE
COURTESY OF COLLIDING OUTFLOWS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
MOISTURE FROM DOLORES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AT SOME POINT
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITIES. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN/GFS/NAM ALL
SUGGEST PWATS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
/POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES AROUND YUMA/ FRIDAY NIGHT. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING SIMILAR VALUES...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAT UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE /VALUES
APPROACHING THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE/ WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY...ELEVATED MOISTURE IS ONLY ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONVECTIVE PUZZLE BUT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MARKED JUMP IN MLCAPES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXACTLY WHAT FORCING MECHANISM WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IS
STILL TO BE DETERMINED...BUT THERE`S A FEW SUBTLE CIRCULATIONS IN THE
500-700MB LAYER OVER SONORA PER THE NAM/GFS FORECAST THAT I`VE RAISED
POPS A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND I
RETAINED ELEVATED POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
SATURDAY IS PROBABLY BE THE MOST CHALLENGING DAY TO FIGURE OUT...AS
ELEVATED PWATS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE AREA...NOT TO MENTION THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BE CONTAMINATED FROM
CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING TO AROUND -6 TO -7 C AT 500MB AND FORECAST PROFILES APPEAR TO
BE RELATIVELY STABLE. ANY SORT OF REMNANT MCV FROM STORMS THE NIGHT
BEFORE COULD SERVE AT THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL IT MAY END UP BEING A CLOUDY/MUGGY DAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. AS NEARLY ALL
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC PAINT IN 50-70 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...I`VE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND INCREASED OUR POPS AS WELL.
EXACT TIMING OF WHERE/WHEN STORMS WILL FORM IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN...SO IN REALITY THE POPS ARE LIKELY SPREAD OUT OVER TOO LARGE OF
AN AREA. MADE SURE TO INDICATE ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS THEY WILL ALSO SEE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MANY OF THE ABOVE ARGUMENTS ARE
ALSO VALID DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED
MOISTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SHOWERS.
BY MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES A TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
BEGIN A SLOW PERIOD OF DRY ADVECTION /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
DETERMINISTIC/PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/PRECIP CHANCES
MIGRATING AWAY FROM THE DESERTS AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS. CERTAINLY NOT
TO SAY THE DESERTS WILL BE DRYING OUT ENTIRELY...BUT THERE`S A CLEAR
EASTWARD SHIFT IN ALL OF THE KEY PARAMETERS FROM MONDAY ONWARD. WILL
MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A SMALL NUDGE UPWARD LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE FLOW
TAKES ON IT`S MORE TYPICAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
DEBRIS CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 10KFT WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A FEW WEAK COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DISRUPT EXPECTED DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. DRIER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL DESERTS WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND AT
KIPL THROUGH 08-09Z TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15KT OR SO...AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AT KBLH AFTER 17Z THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A HURRICANE MOVING NORTHWEST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SHED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BODILY
INLAND AND INTO ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A SHARP INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS WELL AS HIGHLY ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES ON THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER MARKEDLY WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND FALLING INTO THE 90S OR AROUND 100 DEGREES.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE VALUES START TO FALL OFF. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN DESERTS...WITH WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
239 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WLY TODAY THRU TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WRN CO WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS IS ALREADY SHOWING UP IN THE IPW SENSORS
WHICH HAVE DROPPED AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FM THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
ACTIVITY OVER NERN CO AS WELL THRU THE AFTN HOURS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH LESS CAPE THIS AFTN STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS STG AS
YESTERDAY. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES TODAY SO
EXPECT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS NERN CO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
STORMS BECOME ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DIP AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WEST TO SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE STATE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE WESTERLY
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO DECREASE STORM COVERAGE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHICS ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP
TO CONTINUE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ISOLATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOW MODELS BRINGING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH WITH
THE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NE FLOW DEEPENS OVER THE NE BY 12Z SUNDAY
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH
WITH THE RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. SHEAR
VALUES ARE MODERATE IN THE 40S WITH DECENT CAPE SO CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AT THIS POINT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ENOUGH HEATING IS PROVIDED. FOR MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES NORTH MID
LEVEL STABILITY WILL HELP TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. INCREASED COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL STILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE
PLAINS GIVEN THE ADDED STABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
WINDS WERE DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR
KEEP THEM LIGHT S TO SSW THRU 18Z. BY MID TO LATE AFTN THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A WIND SHIFT TO MORE WLY AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGH
BASED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE ACROSS. THERE COULD
BE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO ALONG THE BNDRY HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT A
REPEAT OF YESTERDAY SO WILL JUST MENTION VCTS IN THE TAF. FOR THIS
EVENING TSTM THREAT SHOULD END BY 02Z. AS FOR WINDS THEY SHOULD
TREND BACK TO DRAINAGE BY 03Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
It looks like another day with fairly high convective coverage, this
time across the southern half of the area and the coastal waters of
the Gulf of Mexico. There are already signs of renewed convective
initiation near the coastline of Taylor and Dixie Counties in the
Florida Big Bend at 08Z. This is occurring in a region of enhanced 0-
2km moisture flux convergence per RAP analysis, and that area of
convergence is expected to persist over the next several hours into
the mid-morning. Convection-allowing models (CAM) are almost
unanimous in developing widespread convection between 10Z and 15Z,
generally south of a Panama City to Madison FL line. This is the
area we have inserted 60-80% PoPs for the early-mid morning. After
that, additional convective development should occur along sea-
breeze boundaries and around the periphery of any convective cloud
shield lingering from the morning hours. Showers and storms should
be more isolated across the northern half of our area.
One concern with the morning round of storms in the coastal Big Bend
and Panhandle is localized very heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding. Our local ensemble of CAMs has several members producing
over 6" of rain in a 6-hr period (or less) this morning. The average
QPF in Gulf, Franklin, and Dixie Counties is as high as 2".
Regarding the possibility of higher-end amounts, the derived
neighborhood probability (for today) of over 6" of rain from the
ensemble in the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend is around
30%. With 6-hour flash flood guidance from SERFC around 5-6", we
felt there was enough of a chance of flash flooding to warrant a
Flash Flood Watch for those areas. Outside of the flash flooding
threat, there will be the possibility for some isolated severe
storms again today - particularly in our Florida zones that can
receive more substantial heating in the morning and early
afternoon.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
The trough along the U.S. East Coast will lift away to the east
allowing the ridge over Texas to build back to the east. This
should reduce the chances for organized MCSs to organize and work
their way southward into the forecast area. We will still be
dealing with a very unstable air mass south of the cold front
which should stall across the northernmost portions of the
forecast area tonight and then gradually dissipate. Evening PoPs
will be much higher well south of the front across the coastal FL
zones where the flash flood watch will be maintained into the
overnight hours. For Friday and Saturday, we will settle back into
a more typical summer pattern with scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, a few of which could reach strong to
marginally severe limits. Temps will generally be 2-5 degrees
above normal.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley will wobble back
to the west over Texas by Monday as some short wave energy begins
to move off the Mid Atlantic coast. This may open up the
possibility for northwest flow to become re-established by then,
but at this time it does not look very pronounced. A surface
trough will be over or near the forecast area for much of the
period. PoPs will be near climo (40-50%) through the period. Temps
will remain above normal.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] In general, VFR conditions will prevail,
although scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area once
again. Visibility in and near storms may be reduced to IFR levels,
and some storms could have gusty winds over 30 knots. The
terminals most likely to be impacted would be ECP and TLH, from
anytime after 12Z through approximately 00Z. DHN and VLD may be
affected as well, but that would be more likely in the afternoon
hours. Isolated storms are possible near Albany, but the lower
chances preclude a mention of VCTS in the TAF at this time.
&&
.Marine...
The pressure gradient across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will
remain tighter than is typical for mid summer. The result will be
a continuation of WSW winds around 15 knots through tonight.
Conditions will be unsettled over the waters during this time with
a few rounds of strong to severe storms possible. By Friday, winds
will finally drop back to seasonal speeds with daily enhancements
each afternoon and evening in the sea breeze through the weekend
and into next week.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days across the area.
&&
.Hydrology...
There will be the potential for localized very heavy rainfall today,
and possibly again late tonight and into early Friday, across parts
of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. The greatest chance for
rainfall amounts exceeding 6 inches through Friday would be in the
lower portions of river basins (closer to the Gulf of Mexico).
Therefore, the threat of widespread river flooding is not
particularly high, but some smaller streams in the Florida
Panhandle, and perhaps rivers such as the Steinhatchee River and
Econfina River in the Florida Big Bend could be affected. The main
threat from the localized heavy rainfall would be flash flooding of
urban or low lying areas.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 92 75 95 76 95 / 60 30 40 30 40
Panama City 87 80 90 80 90 / 60 30 40 30 40
Dothan 95 76 97 76 97 / 50 20 30 20 30
Albany 95 75 96 75 95 / 30 20 30 20 30
Valdosta 93 74 95 74 95 / 70 30 40 30 40
Cross City 88 75 92 74 93 / 80 60 50 30 50
Apalachicola 89 79 92 79 92 / 80 40 40 40 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Taylor-Inland
Wakulla-Lafayette-Liberty.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through Friday morning for Coastal
Bay-Coastal Gulf.
GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. &&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
356 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THIS
WILL SET INDIANA UP FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
MOVING EAST. CURRENT HRRR AND NAM BRING THESE SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT RAP/GFS DO NOT. GIVEN
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ALOFT CAN/T RULE OUT A SHOWER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING...BUT THINK POSSIBILITY COULD BE BETTER
FOR A BRIEF SPRINKLE GIVEN DRIER AIR MASS HERE. BROUGHT ISOLATED
SPRINKLES INTO PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THIS WAVE THE
PAST FEW RUNS SO WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS BEFORE 0Z IN THE
NORTHWEST...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FROM
THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORED WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND WENT UP A BIT
FROM THERE IN THE SOUTH BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING GUIDANCE AND TODAY GETTING SOME WARM ADVECTION BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
USED A CONSENSUS...BUT WITH POPS THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
NUMBERS DUE MOSTLY TO TIMING DISCREPANCIES.
A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
ENOUGH FORCING WITH IT TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ABOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AS
WELL WILL HELP WITH THE FORCING AND BEHIND IT MORE WARM MOIST AIR
WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT CERTAIN RADAR WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE VARIETY IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RETURNING TO
AROUND 70 SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. FLATTENS AND
ALLOWS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM EXPECT TO SEE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW TO INTERACT WITH THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS.
ISOLATED SEVERE POP UP STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYS WITH
LARGE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR.
AIR AND SOIL MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 90S EVEN WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS SAID GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
SITUATION WELL AND GENERALLY STILL USED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREE
MARK... AND COULD APPROACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY ISSUANCE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HEAT ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY MONDAY. STAGNANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD SUPPLY A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. ANY WAVE COULD TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOWER 90S AT MOST SPOTS SUNDAY. THE HEAT INDEX COULD REACH
105 AT TIMES SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN NOT AS WARM OR HUMID WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
TAFS MAINLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF
BR MVFR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS SAVE FOR IND...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE
AT SOME OF THE OUTLYING SITES...ESPECIALLY BMG/HUF WHICH WERE
TEMPO/D DOWN TO LIFR (2SM BR) FROM 08-12Z BASED ON CALM WINDS AND
-1/-2 OR LESS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING CUMULUS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL AS A RESULT OF WARM MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH
SHOULD NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY EARLY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. AND FINALLY PICKING UP OUT OF THE S/SE BY
15-16Z AT OR BELOW 8-10 KT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1240 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
H500 SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE OTHER FARTHER SOUTH OVER
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS A WEAK SFC LOW AND TROUGH
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST IOWA. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH FORCING INCREASING OVER
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA BY 12Z...FOCUSING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS LOCATION. OF THESE THE EURO
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR IS CONCENTRATING THE LIONS SHARE OF FORCING
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA TONIGHT...RIGHT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY. WITH BOTH VORT MAXES PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST...IT LOOKS LIKE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM WEST CENTRAL
TOWARD NORTHEAST WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...EAST TO ABOUT I35 AGAIN THIS
AREA COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF IOWA NOW...THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD FILL IN
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE H850 LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KT
INCREASES AFTER 03-04Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES BY 06Z OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 13KFT...PROMOTING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PROCESSES. THE DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN INCREASED
FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS SOUTHWEST/WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERNS REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST...WE MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD
OFF ON HEADLINES DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION. LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH UNCOMFORTABLE DEW POINTS NEAR THE SAME VALUES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THE STORM SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH
THIS CLEARING...WHILE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
FASTER WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS SYNOPTIC
SET UP. FURTHERMORE THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE MOVING IN BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING CONVECTION...MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORM REDEVELOPMENT
LATE IN THE DAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT OF ALL OF THESE
FACTORS...MAINTAINED A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING OF HIGHER POPS TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING BUT HELD SOME LOWER POPS BACK IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST AT TIMES MAINLY THURSDAY EVENING. ALSO MAINTAINED
SOME FOG MENTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN
THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND WET GROUND/HIGH DEWPOINTS.
BY FRIDAY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH
500 MB FLOW TURNING TO WEST SOUTHWEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
THIS SHOULD LARGELY STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THERE
MAY BE SOME PEAK HEATING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER A GENERAL LACK
OF FORCING OR FOCUS MECHANISM PROHIBIT INTRODUCING POPS AT THIS
TIME. FRIDAY WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN OF MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AS
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROMOTE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOW CHANCE
OF WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF THEY
DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A WARM AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH BULK SHEAR FORECASTS CERTAINLY SUPPORTING SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE
REMAIN AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STICKING TO
ITS GUNS FOR THE LAST THREE RUNS WITH A MUCH FASTER PASSAGE AND
THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWLY COMING AROUND IN THAT DIRECTION. IF THIS
OCCURS...IT WOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS SUNDAY AND SHIFT
ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA
RATHER THAN FURTHER NORTHWEST. FOR NOW THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
EVOLUTION RESULTS IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS WITH NO
LIKELIES INTRODUCED AS OF YET...BUT ONCE THE DETAILS OF TIMING
BECOME CLEARER THEN HIGHER POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN ONE
OR MORE OF THE PERIODS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
FURTHER AS WELL.
AS ROUGHLY ZONAL STEERING FLOW PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SUNDAY COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING
ANY SUBTLE IMPULSES TYPICALLY MOVING THROUGH SUCH FLOW AT THIS
TIME RANGE...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW POPS AT TIMES IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...16/06Z
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH LLJ POINTED INTO IOWA. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ONCE
MORE. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST AS A FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE STATE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE LATEST THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT
AND COVERAGE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
FAIRLY WELL AT THE MOMENT...SO DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE SOLUTION
INTO THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER FOR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 3 MDT/4 CDT BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUD WITH LOW DAYTIME CUMULUS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN A FEW PLACES. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS LED TO THE LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. A FEW SUBTLE
MONSOON-TYPE IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTH ON THE WESTERN RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE IN PARTICULAR IS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO...HEADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS LIKELY THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENING`S THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATES A FEW STORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST AREA...WHERE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO A STRONG CAP...IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
LOCATED OVER PRIMARILY NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE SECOND AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH POSSESSES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...HAS BEGUN OVER COLORADO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLORADO STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AFTER CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. MOST STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING BEHIND THE
STORMS.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS POSES THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM...AND DCAPE POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS DEFINITELY LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED AS
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE A MEAGER 20-30 KTS WITH 0-3 KM
HELICITY REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 125 M2/S2. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE MORE PULSE-LIKE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS PROJECTED IN THE
1.50"-1.75" RANGE INDICATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. STORMS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AS A RESULT OF COLD POOL
FORMATION BUT ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE AT A SNAILS
PACE. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
FOR TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS NUMEROUS DUE TO LACK OF A
MORE NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE INTENSIFICATION.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FROM
BEING REALIZED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ALSO...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE RIDGE BUILDING...HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED. FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW ARE GENERALLY
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM REACHING THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH PRECIPITATION
TIMING DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT THERE IS
MOISTURE BEING PUMPED UP INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON...
WHICH WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH 700 MB SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA...AS WELL AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK.
BOTH MODELS HAVE A STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE THAT WILL START TO PUSH
WEST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS RIDGE IS A BIG FACTOR ON HOW EACH
MODEL HANDLES PRECIPITATION. THE GFS STILL HAS A NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
THAT LINGERS A LITTLE LONGER ON SUNDAY THAN THE TROUGH IN THE
EUROPEAN...WHICH HAS THE RIDGE A LITTLE STRONGER THAT PUSHES THE TROUGH
MORE NORTHERLY AND INTO CANADA.
AS FAR AS SUNDAY GOES...THE GFS HAS STRONG BULK SHEARING AROUND 60 KTS
FROM 12Z SUN TO 00Z MON. THE SURFACE CAPES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT
THE EUROPEAN HAS SURFACE CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG BUT NO BULK SHEARING
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. FOR WEDNESDAY AT 00Z THE GFS HAS BULK
SHEARING AROUND 50 KTS AND SURFACE CAPES AROUND 2300 J/KG. THE EUROPEAN
DOES NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT VALUES FOR SURFACE CAPES OR BULK SHEARING AT
00Z WED...BUT SURFACE CAPES ARE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TUES AT 18Z. ALONG
WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA...TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE FOR PRECIPITATION BUT IS MORE PROBABLE THESE DAYS.
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE HIGH 70S TO HIGH 80S
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOW
90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KGLD
DIRECTLY...BUT STORMS SHOULD MISS KMCK AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE LATEST THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT
AND COVERAGE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
FAIRLY WELL AT THE MOMENT...SO DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE SOLUTION
INTO THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER FOR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 3 MDT/4 CDT BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUD WITH LOW DAYTIME CUMULUS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN A FEW PLACES. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS LED TO THE LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. A FEW SUBTLE
MONSOON-TYPE IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTH ON THE WESTERN RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE IN PARTICULAR IS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO...HEADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS LIKELY THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENING`S THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATES A FEW STORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST AREA...WHERE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO A STRONG CAP...IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
LOCATED OVER PRIMARILY NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE SECOND AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH POSSESSES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...HAS BEGUN OVER COLORADO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLORADO STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AFTER CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. MOST STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING BEHIND THE
STORMS.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS POSES THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM...AND DCAPE POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS DEFINITELY LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED AS
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE A MEAGER 20-30 KTS WITH 0-3 KM
HELICITY REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 125 M2/S2. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE MORE PULSE-LIKE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS PROJECTED IN THE
1.50"-1.75" RANGE INDICATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. STORMS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AS A RESULT OF COLD POOL
FORMATION BUT ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE AT A SNAILS
PACE. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
FOR TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS NUMEROUS DUE TO LACK OF A
MORE NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE INTENSIFICATION.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FROM
BEING REALIZED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ALSO...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE RIDGE BUILDING...HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED. FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW ARE GENERALLY
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM REACHING THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT THU
JUL 16 2015
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH PRECIPITATION
TIMING DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT THERE IS
MOISTURE BEING PUMPED UP INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON...
WHICH WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH 700 MB SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA...AS WELL AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK.
BOTH MODELS HAVE A STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE THAT WILL START TO PUSH
WEST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS RIDGE IS A BIG FACTOR ON HOW EACH
MODEL HANDLES PRECIPITATION. THE GFS STILL HAS A NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
THAT LINGERS A LITTLE LONGER ON SUNDAY THAN THE TROUGH IN THE
EUROPEAN...WHICH HAS THE RIDGE A LITTLE STRONGER THAT PUSHES THE TROUGH
MORE NORTHERLY AND INTO CANADA.
AS FAR AS SUNDAY GOES...THE GFS HAS STRONG BULK SHEARING AROUND 60 KTS
FROM 12Z SUN TO 00Z MON. THE SURFACE CAPES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT
THE EUROPEAN HAS SURFACE CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG BUT NO BULK SHEARING
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. FOR WEDNESDAY AT 00Z THE GFS HAS BULK
SHEARING AROUND 50 KTS AND SURFACE CAPES AROUND 2300 J/KG. THE EUROPEAN
DOES NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT VALUES FOR SURFACE CAPES OR BULK SHEARING AT
00Z WED...BUT SURFACE CAPES ARE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TUES AT 18Z. ALONG
WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA...TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE FOR PRECIPITATION BUT IS MORE PROBABLE THESE DAYS.
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE HIGH 70S TO HIGH 80S
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOW
90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KGLD
DIRECTLY...BUT STORMS SHOULD MISS KMCK AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE LATEST THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT
AND COVERAGE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
FAIRLY WELL AT THE MOMENT...SO DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE SOLUTION
INTO THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER FOR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LAST
THROUGH ABOUT 3 MDT/4 CDT BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUD WITH LOW DAYTIME CUMULUS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN A FEW PLACES. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AND SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS LED TO THE LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS. A FEW SUBTLE
MONSOON-TYPE IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTH ON THE WESTERN RIDGE
PERIPHERY. ONE IN PARTICULAR IS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO...HEADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS LIKELY THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENING`S THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATES A FEW STORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST AREA...WHERE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO A STRONG CAP...IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
LOCATED OVER PRIMARILY NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE SECOND AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH POSSESSES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...HAS BEGUN OVER COLORADO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE COLORADO STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AFTER CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS. MOST STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING BEHIND THE
STORMS.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS POSES THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM...AND DCAPE POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS DEFINITELY LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED AS
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE A MEAGER 20-30 KTS WITH 0-3 KM
HELICITY REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 125 M2/S2. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE MORE PULSE-LIKE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS PROJECTED IN THE
1.50"-1.75" RANGE INDICATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. STORMS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AS A RESULT OF COLD POOL
FORMATION BUT ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE AT A SNAILS
PACE. THEREFORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
FOR TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS NUMEROUS DUE TO LACK OF A
MORE NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE INTENSIFICATION.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FROM
BEING REALIZED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ALSO...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE RIDGE BUILDING...HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED. FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW ARE GENERALLY
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM REACHING THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME SMALL SCALE FEATURES THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH
THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEY
INDICATE A NUMBER OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD PROVIDE
AMPLE ASCENT FOR STORMS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING. THAT FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OF ALL THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IS NOTED
BY A BROAD BRUSH CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES BOTH
AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY UNTIL THEY REBOUND AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KGLD
DIRECTLY...BUT STORMS SHOULD MISS KMCK AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
108 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO MOVE IN...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
108 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TREND AND
INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.
PREV DISC...
610 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS... AND
TO INGEST THE 22Z MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER EASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY ALONG
CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO END NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS MARCH THRU THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
CLEARING THE WESTERN MAINE COAST AT THIS HOUR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SOUTHEAST
NH...WHICH WILL ONLY BE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT MOST.
ANY REMAINING POP WILL CONFINED TO THIS AREA OF NH...WITH RAPID
DRYING FROM THE N.
DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING INTO THE 50S AS THE DRIER AIR MASS WORKS
INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS IS SEASONABLY COOL...BUT THE CENTER OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DELAY IN ARRIVING UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THUS WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TONIGHT...AS COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP A SOMEWHAT MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL BE A SPECTACULAR DAY THURSDAY...AS WARM TEMPERATURES
COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY. NW
BREEZE WILL WEAKEN...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...ALLOWING SEA
BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AFTER
SUNSET THURSDAY. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
VALLEYS...AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP. ALSO
EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO BE MORE PREVALENT THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LACK
OF GRADIENT WILL REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL MIXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY SETTING UP RETURN SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR FRIDAY THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN A DRY DAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
SEND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO MAINE BY
SATURDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE A WARM FRONT MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED. SOUTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH DECREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITHIN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PRODUCE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE. WIND
SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. COULD
STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LINGERS NEARBY
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL MAINE. TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S BUT WILL
RISE INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE MARITIME AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS IT IS ALSO SHOVED FURTHER SOUTHEAST BY A
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL SET
UP AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ON
MONDAY... WITH LOW CLOUDS BECOMING LIKELY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REACH THE 70S THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE COOL AIR AND LOW CLOUDS IN MOST OF
THE DAY.
THE NEXT LARGER SCALE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY... WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS IT DOES SO.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WHICH GIVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY. IF THE TIMING LINES UP RIGHT... THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...PROVIDING QUIET
WEATHER THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
IN VALLEY FOG. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LEB AND HIE WILL DROP TO
IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT AS COOLER AIR MASS
ADVECTS IN THE MODELED COOL TEMPERATURES AND FOG WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG APPEARS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND WINDS GO CALM.
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS
BEGIN ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY MAY BRING IN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG OR DRIZZLE TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO SWELL.
LONG TERM...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME ON SUNDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
352 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON EARLY
MORNING GOES WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY DROPPING OVER THE REGION. RAP
GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THE ENERGY WELL...DROPPING IT OVER ERN VA
ATTM. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST WITH ADDED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MOISTURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU 7 AM.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY INLAND.
FOR TODAY...TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
NWLY. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WITH PWATS PROGGED
TO DROP AOB 1 INCH. SFC WINDS BECOME NNE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. LOWER THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO AND H85 TEMPS
AROUND 15-17C WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY IS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH RH VALUES AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WRN HALF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S SE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF
STATES...RESULTING IN INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THICKNESSES REBOUND FRI...AS H85 TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C. THIS
TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND...BUT REMAINING
COOLER NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE REGION...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
WILL KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO UPSLOPE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY FORECAST FRI WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AS UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND
SAT MORNING...PRODUCING PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ADDED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GO ALONG WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES) AND PERTURBATIONS IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMING TREND CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE PLAINS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD/JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS/RH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RETURN
(SSW) FLOW SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN
WILL BECOMES A BIT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH THE WEAK LLVL HEIGHT FALLS ALLOWING A LEE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCT
SHRAS EACH AFTN SUN/MON (BEST FORCING REMAINS TO OUR NNW BOTH
DAYS).
BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD COME ON TUESDAY AS SFC BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNING TO A
FAMILIAR SETUP AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
SUNDAY...INCREASING INTO THE MID 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 70-75F.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT SHWRS HAVE DVLPD ACROSS SERN VA IN ASSCTD WITH A WEAK S/W
ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. GIVEN LTST RADAR TRENDS...WENT AHEAD
WITH A VCSH FOR PHF AND TEMPO SHWRS FOR THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME.
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THESE SHWRS DSTPG BEFORE THEY GET TO ECG SO
KEPT PCPN OUT OF THE ECG TAF ATTM. OTW...WND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND FROPA NEXT FEW HRS WITH THE BKN SC DECK SCATTERING OUT.
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD AFTR SR...HOWEVER DATA SUPPORTS A BKN TO OCNL OVC
SC DECK BTWN 4-5K FT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A SCT SHWR THIS AFTRN...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO PUT ANY PCPN INTO THE CSTL TAFS ATTM.
CLRG SKIES WITH DMNSHG WNDS XPCTD AFTR 00Z.
OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER XPCTD FIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
LOW CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST CHANCE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NRLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT CAME IN RTHR QUICK WITH WINDS BEHIND
LINE OF SHWRS / CD FRNT GUSTING BTWN 20-25 KTS OVR THE SRN CHES BAY.
SURGE PROGGED TO CONT FOR NEXT SVRL HRS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS SO WILL
KEEP SCA FOR CHES BAY GOING THRU 14Z. SCA`S ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS
LOOKING MARGINAL AND MAINLY FOR SEAS BLDG TO 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM.
WINDS / SEAS ALL SUBSIDE BLO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE GRDNT
RELAXES. NE FLOW BECOMES E FRI THEN S FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH PRS
MOVES OFF NEW ENDLAND COAST. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS. SWLY
FLOW XPCTD SUN AND MON WITH CHCS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW WITH SURF ZONE
WAVES BTWN 3-4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1134 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE
NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET, AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND
NORTHERN MO. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHEAST MO AS THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN HAS
ITS QPF FURTHER SOUTH, AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA LATE TONIGHT. THE
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN SOME AS IT GETS FURTHER EAST INTO SLIGHTLY
LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BNDRY THAT PASSED
THRU THE FA YESTERDAY/LAST EVNG WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE OUT OF THE
PLAINS. SHRAS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRD
ALONG THE FRONT FROM WRN MO INTO S CNTRL MO WITH ACTIVITY SLIDING SE
ALONG THE BNDRY. DON`T EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA BUT BORDER
WITH SGF MAY GET BRUSHED LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS NORTH AS AN MCS ASSOC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TRACKS
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVNG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TOMORROW.
THERE SHOULD BE A WAA WING OF PRECIP EMANATING FROM THE STHRN SIDE
OF THE MCS AFFECTING THE NTHRN PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY MORNING.
2%
.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM LATE THURSDAY
MRNG INTO THE AFTN BEFORE ADDTNL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE FA
THURSDAY EVNG ALONG WITH THE BNDRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE MO AND W CNTRL IL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS AS THE BEST SHEAR IS FCST TO REMAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISLD
STRONG/SVR STORM.
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT SIGNALS THE START OF THE NEXT WARMING TREND. 850MB
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 20S BY FRIDAY WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
CORRESPONDED TO SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S. MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPS SO USED A BLEND.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY
UPPER LVL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE WKND BCMNG CENTERED OVER
STHRN AR/NTHRN LA SO EXPECTED A TYPICAL MID JULY WKND WITH TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WRT HOW TO HANDLE ENERGY ASSOC WITH A
CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA OVER THE WKND. THE GFS IS NOW
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S FASTER SOLUTION WRT SHORT WAVE ENERGY. MAIN
ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
CWA BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WEST ACROSS TX FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE REGION IS FCST TO REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW
INTO MID-WEEK. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVNG...WHICH WILL ALSO
BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE BNDRY SHOULD
CLEAR THE STHRN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE.
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE WKND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S...COUPLED WITH DPS IN THE 70S...MEANS THAT A HEAT HEADLINE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WKND. THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP 850MB
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE
THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEY SHOULD AFFECT KUIN, SO HAVE ADDED
VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR -SHRA AT THIS TERMINAL. CHANCES REMAIN
TOO LOW AT KCOU AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES TO WARRANT
INCLUDING AT THOSE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT. THESE STORMS ARE
FORMING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA
CURRENTLY WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING, SO HAVE NOT ADDED THEM TO THE TERMINAL. A
WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL BY LATE MORNING CAUSING
EASTERLY WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTH.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
AT 08Z...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST FROM AROUND THE THEDFORD AREA. A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM PORTIONS
OF NRN KS AND SERN NEBR ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL IA AND NRN MO.
TEMPERATURES IN WRN NEBR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
TODAY...ONGOING SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
THEDFORD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTY. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z NEAR AND EAST
OF ONEILL THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THEN...AS A SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES
EAST ACROSS WRN NEBR...THIS WILL BRING DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 10 KTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO SWRN
NEBR AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING...MOST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE
LOCATED NEAR WRN BOYD...HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM TO NEAR 90 NRN NEBR TO AROUND 95 I80 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. SKIES
TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WEST...AS OVERCAST SKIES IN THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY.
LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY ACROSS THE CONUS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH A CLOSED LOW INDICATED IN ALBERTA
CANADA. UPPER FLOW NEARLY ZONAL FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.
TONIGHT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER AND INCREASE TO TO NEAR 55
WEST AND 65 EAST. A DRY FORECAST...WITH ANY EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RESIDE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS FROM NEAR
60 ERN PNHDL TO NEAR 65 EAST. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL AS
AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NW EASTWARD INTO
MONTANA. SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING
THIS PERIOD...AS OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF POSSIBLE STORMS. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY...WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING AND BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEXT WEEK. THEY ALSO INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS SUNDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER
70S DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND BEYOND...IS WHERE THE TIMING OF POSSIBLE
STORMS BECOMES DIFFICULT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA ON NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
WILDCARD FOR NEXT WEEK IS HURRICANE DOLORES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT DOLORES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA SOMETIME EARLY TO
MIDWEEK. OF COURSE WHEN IT DOES MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST IT WILL
BE IN A GREATLY WEAKENED STATE...WITH ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING. THE WILD CARD IS HOW ALL THIS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE CHANCES...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF UPPER WAVES THAT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. SO AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER
CHANCES WILL BE...AND WILL OPT TO JUST CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AND BEYOND AS BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 AS STORMS WILL BE ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE AIR AS THEY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THE SREF AND RAP SUGGEST STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
BURNOFF SHOULD OCCUR BY 15Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS AS OF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND
LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE EAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE HAS STEADILY ADVECTED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. AS OF 20Z
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WAS NOTED
ON RADAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH NORTH. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING
FORWARD. CLEARING TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH INTO THE LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST WIND ADVECTING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES RIGHT AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
PV ANOMALY EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. SO FAR TODAY
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED AS INITIATION POINTS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS WORKED TO
ELIMINATE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY INDICATE
THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE LOCAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SREF...NAM...AND MOST HI-RES MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR AN AREA EAST OF
A NORTH PLATTE TO TAYLOR LINE FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER
TODAY...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL STAY EAST OF THE CWA WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE.
POPS CLEAR OUT EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP SAGS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INSOLATION EXPECTED. WEAK FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. WARMING
TEMPERATURES FROM 850MB TO 700MB AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER FURTHER NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS POISED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO BE PULLED NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY EAST AROUND THE HIGH...FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND LATER ONTO THE PLAINS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PAC NW LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE GFS AND EC DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THE PAC NW TROUGH...SO BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT MUDDLED. REGARDLESS...THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
PERIODIC ATMOSPHERIC IMPULSES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES TO PROVIDE FOR
CHANCES OF THUNDER. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PULLS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THE FRONT MORE OR LESS WASHES OUT
SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY...SPARKING OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION SITS IN
A POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO WATCH THE MONSOONAL PLUME
AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH...ANY SUBTLE IMPULSE WOULD
PROVIDE FOR THE RETURN OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
QPF IS NOT LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN
SEASONAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 AS STORMS WILL BE ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE AIR AS THEY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THE SREF AND RAP SUGGEST STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
BURNOFF SHOULD OCCUR BY 15Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
245 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DOLORES MOVING UP FROM THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
TRYING TO SEEP IN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BUT STRUGGLING TO MAKE
MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS. VAD WIND PROFILER FROM YUMA INDICATES THE
CURRENT MOISTURE SURGE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO WE WILL NEED TO WAIT AT
LEAST ANOTHER DAY BEFORE ANY SUBSTANCIAL MOISTURE INCREASE IMPACTS
THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A DRY AND WARM ONE WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SIERRA WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS
OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK
OUT SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF BISHOP. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...SO I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER TO
THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FAR
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY NEAR PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MONUMENT WHERE
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE
EVENING...BUT I BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA
AND I HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
ON FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE MUCH
ANTICIPATED GULF SURGE COURTESY OF HURRICANE DOLORES BEGINS TO CREEP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ENCROACHING 1.50 INCHES WILL BE
NUDGING INTO THE LAKE HAVASU AREA WITH OVER ONE INCH ALL THE WAY UP
TO LAKE MEAD. THIS WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT ALSO AS FAR WEST
AS LAKE MEAD...NEEDLES...AND LAKE HAVASU. I PULLED POPS A BIT
FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...SOME WESTERLY SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE SO SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AT WHICH POINT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE MOIST
FROM I-15 SOUTH AND EAST. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF RAIN
COULD HINDER INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT BUT THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR HAS ME CONCERNED ABOUT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY.
FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...GRAY AND GLOOMY DAY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WILL STILL BE IN PLAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PAC NW. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS IN THE HANDLING OF
A PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS LEFT BEHIND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AS TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE EAST.
ALSO...THE ECMWF STILL TAKES THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
DOLORES PHASING IT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURES SEPARATE DEPICTING A
TROUGH OVER NEVADA WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES WEST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF
DOLORES. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
BRING A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE CONFINING ANY MENTION OF STORMS
TO MOHAVE COUNTY AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. READINGS WILL WARM CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOWING
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST PARALLEL TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COULD NEXT WEEKEND BE SIMILAR TO
THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED!
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SUNNY AND DRY TODAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. A PERIOD OF VARIABILITY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENTS WILL EXIST BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z BEFORE A PUSH OF
STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERTAKES THE VALLEY OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA NEAR KBIH. SOUTH
WINDS OF 10-15KTS WIH GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD....ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH A KDAG-KLAS-KSGU LINE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
416 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ND...EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ND...AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL /H7-H5/ TROF. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOW ACROSS
ERN ND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE RRV AND
INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE FORENOON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
PATCHY SUNSHINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HEATING IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...AND WILL PROVIDE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF THERE AND FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 AND RAP13
BOTH SHOW UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE 0-2KM FROM 18-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN ND...WITH HIGH VALUES TRANSLATING INTO
WCNTRL MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HRRR AND NSSL
CAMS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DISTINCTLY STRONGER CELLS IN
THE SOUTHERN RRV /19-22Z/ ...CONSISTENT WITH SPC DY1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS
FROM EAST FLANK OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WIDEPSREAD WETTING RAINS AND THUNDER
ARE TO BE EXPECTED...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SOME STRNGER STORMS THERE. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AGAIN MAINTAINS
A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA FROM DY2 INTO DY3.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS THE PATTERN BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT...WITH A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH. LOOK FOR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. MOST ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN ALG AND NORTH OF
DVL- GFK- TVF LINE...WITH SCT THUNDERTSORM ACTIVITY STEADILY
MOVING INTO SERN ND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RRV AND
NORTHWESTERN MN...WITH SCT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OUTHERN RRV AND
WEST CENTRAL MN. MOST ALL ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NCNTRL MN BY EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG/GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
RECENT REFLECTIVITY HAS SHOWN STORMS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST. OTHERWISE NO UPDATE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
ADJUSTED SHORT TERM POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA/WYOMING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. RECENT
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MU CAPE OF 2000-3000J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR IN PLACE. MAY STILL SEE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THINK THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A
VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED SLIDING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CURRENT WAVE OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A PAIR OF WAVES OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH...WITH A
VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WAVES BEHIND.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PARADE OF SHORT WAVES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST HIGHER INSTABILITY (2-3 KJ/KG) OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...GREATEST TO THE NORTH.
WITH THAT SAID...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND
THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IS THE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN TRAINING STORMS...AS ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE WET WITH MODELS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~160 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LAST OF
THE SHORT WAVES MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWER
VALUES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO
BE QUITE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REGARDING A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN MOVES EAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA...AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HAVE
BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN CHANCES ARE
BETTER FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
THE MODELS THEN DEVELOP A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA...AND BRING THE WESTERLIES AND HENCE THE JET STREAM FARTHER
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE WEAKER
AND ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW OR NO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE 5 TERMINALS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
117 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT THURSDAY...
UPDATING TO EXPAND POPS BETWEEN LYH AND DAN GIVEN CONTINUED
PERSISTENT NATURE TO SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING OUT
EAST. LATEST HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THIS COVERAGE FADING WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E INTO
SOUTHSIDE VA MAY ACTUALLY SEE THINGS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY. THIS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST NAM WHICH HAS SOME ISOLATED SHRA PERSISTING AND SHIFTING SW
INTO THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1030 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SEEING ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT FADING.
THE LATEST HRRR/00Z NAM HANG ONTO A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS TRAVERSING THE FOOTHILLS OF VA AND NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S POISED
ACROSS NRN OHIO INTO PA AND MAY SPILL SWD TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS BY MORNING...BUT MOST PLACES STILL STUCK IN THE 60S. NOT
CHANGING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH FROM THE LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 60S PIEDMONT. PATCHY FOG TIL 800 AM OVER THE MTNS AS WELL
ADDED TO GRIDS...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
BUFKIT SHOWED ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE LEFT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z LOCAL WRF WAS SHOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS BY THURSDAY BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE PIEDMONT. SOME OTHER MODEL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DRIER AIR BUT WILL STILL HAVE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY A DRY ONE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IT SILL START TO HEAD EAST IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES REGION SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENOUGH
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS WILL DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY THAT FORM ARE EXPECT TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST RETROGRADING THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHERN JET TO ADVECT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
EAST OF OUR REGION...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A CONTINUATION OF
NORTHWEST...UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WEST WILL HELP MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WE WILL REMAIN IN A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ALL
WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE ON MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER 100 DEGREES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY PROMPT
LOCALIZED INCREASES IN COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT IS HOW QUICKLY...AND HOW FAR
GEOGRAPHICALLY...IT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE GFS OFFERS A SOLUTIONS THAT STALLS THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF ALLOWS FOR PROGRESS OF THE FRONT
OFF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THAT OF THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT THURSDAY...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH CIGS LOWERING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEVELOPING
EASTERLY FLOW. ALSO SEEING ISOLATED SHRA PERSIST ALONG THE KLYH-
KDAN CORRIDOR WHERE MSAS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MUCH HIGHER LOW LEVEL
THETA-E NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS PER LATEST HRRR
WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING BOTH KDAN/KLYH SO INCLUDING A
VCSH THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK.
OTRW EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER INTO LOW END VFR OR MVFR MOST
LOCATIONS GIVEN EXPANDING STRATO-CU UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT OVERNIGHT
WITH IFR/LIFR AT KBLF IN STRATUS/FOG. FOG REMAINS TRICKY ELSEWHERE
AS THE CLOUD CANOPY EXPANDS AND LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING MOST
SPOTS. THINK COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR TYPE VSBYS AT KLWB/KBCB BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE UNDER NE FLOW AS WELL SO KEPT BUMPED VSBYS UP A
NOTCH THERE AND LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAST CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBLF WILL
IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. BUT WILL HAVE
ALL SITES VFR IN THE 13-15Z TIME FRAME AS SHOULD SEE CIGS MIX OUT
EARLY ON AS MODELS SHOW BETTER DRYING FROM THE NORTH DEVELOPING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.
WIDELY SCATTERED MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. OTHERWISE
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE DOLORES MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES MIGRATING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA INTO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE DOLORES IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA THIS
MORNING AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGESTS PWATS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING 1.5-1.7+ INCHES SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ACROSS THE DESERTS THIS MORNING...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
PERCOLATE SOUTH OF PHOENIX AS OF 09Z WITH A WEAK WESTWARD-
PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SERVING AS THE TRIGGER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE`S APPROXIMATELY 300-500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...I`LL HANG ONTO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL DAYBREAK /AT WHICH POINT MOST OF THE OUTFLOWS
SHOULD HAVE LOST THEIR MOMENTUM/.
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A FAIRLY LOW-GRADE
MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...AS WELL AS ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS SOUTH OF GILA BEND. INHERITED POPS KEPT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OUT OF THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND THIS STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. IF ANYTHING FIRES OVER THE PHOENIX METRO...IT`LL
BE COURTESY OF COLLIDING OUTFLOWS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
MOISTURE FROM DOLORES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AT SOME POINT
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITIES. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN/GFS/NAM ALL
SUGGEST PWATS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
/POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES AROUND YUMA/ FRIDAY NIGHT. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING SIMILAR VALUES...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAT UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE /VALUES
APPROACHING THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE/ WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY...ELEVATED MOISTURE IS ONLY ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONVECTIVE PUZZLE BUT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MARKED JUMP IN MLCAPES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXACTLY WHAT FORCING MECHANISM WILL TRIGGER
CONVECTION IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED...BUT THERE`S A FEW SUBTLE
CIRCULATIONS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER SONORA PER THE NAM/GFS
FORECAST THAT I`VE RAISED POPS A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND I RETAINED ELEVATED POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
SATURDAY IS PROBABLY BE THE MOST CHALLENGING DAY TO FIGURE OUT...AS
ELEVATED PWATS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE AREA...NOT TO MENTION THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BE CONTAMINATED FROM
CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING TO AROUND -6 TO -7 C AT 500MB AND FORECAST PROFILES APPEAR
TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE. ANY SORT OF REMNANT MCV FROM STORMS THE
NIGHT BEFORE COULD SERVE AT THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL IT MAY END UP BEING A CLOUDY/MUGGY DAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. AS NEARLY ALL
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC PAINT IN 50-70 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...I`VE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND INCREASED OUR POPS AS WELL.
EXACT TIMING OF WHERE/WHEN STORMS WILL FORM IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN...SO IN REALITY THE POPS ARE LIKELY SPREAD OUT OVER TOO LARGE
OF AN AREA. MADE SURE TO INDICATE ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS THEY WILL ALSO SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MANY OF THE ABOVE
ARGUMENTS ARE ALSO VALID DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ELEVATED MOISTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING OF
SHOWERS.
BY MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES A TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL BEGIN A SLOW PERIOD OF DRY ADVECTION /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED
BY THE DETERMINISTIC/PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/PRECIP
CHANCES MIGRATING AWAY FROM THE DESERTS AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
CERTAINLY NOT TO SAY THE DESERTS WILL BE DRYING OUT ENTIRELY...BUT
THERE`S A CLEAR EASTWARD SHIFT IN ALL OF THE KEY PARAMETERS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD. WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A SMALL NUDGE UPWARD LATE NEXT WEEK
WHEN THE FLOW TAKES ON IT`S MORE TYPICAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT TYPICAL EASTERLY AM WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO W-SW HEADINGS BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ELEVATED BREEZES PSBL DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. MORNING SCT-BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AND THIN WITH AFTN SKIES HOSTING SOME FEW-SCT CU FIELDS
GNLY 10KFT OR ABOVE. STORM ACTIVITY PSBL AGAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PHX METRO AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST...WITH INITIAL IMPACT BEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSION AND
SUBSEQUENT WIND SHIFTS. INTERSECTING OUTFLOWS MAY SUPPORT POP-UP
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HEDGED WITH VCSH IN THE KIWA 12Z TAF
OVERNIGHT FOR NOW.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT AM WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR KIPL AND KBLH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...COURTESY OF CURRENT EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES...WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST REGION SIGNIFICANTLY BOOSTING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOTE...ONLY THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...NOT THE ACTUAL CIRCULATION ITSELF.
UNDER SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK...EVEN FOR THE WARMEST LOWEST
DESERT LOCALES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND WARM UP BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE WEST TRANSITIONS INTO
THE AREA
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY WARRANT SPOTTER DEPLOYMENT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
500 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MONSOON PLUME
SHIFTS EASTWARD. STILL SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND AN APPARENT
WEAK WAVE BACK ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC DEW POINTS DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY WHICH WILL REALLY LIMIT
CAPE VALUES AND STORM STRENGTHS. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS...THOUGH SOME OF THE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY
COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE AXIS OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS MAY HANG IN. IF DEW POINTS CAN STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...THEN CAPE VALUES COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR A
LITTLE BETTER. GFS...RAP13 AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRENDING
DRIER WITH SFC DEW POINTS THOUGH...AND IF THIS OCCURS THEN STORM
STRENGTHS WILL BE LOWER. OTHER HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING NMM AND
ARW LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM12. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS MAY STILL LINGER. COULD SEE A MARGINALLY STRONG
STORM OR TWO DOWN THAT WAY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDING TO EXISTING FORECAST DURING THE LONGER
TERM WITH THE MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AT
TIMES)...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME. UPPER RIDGE THEN ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WEST TOWARDS
COLORADO BY MIDDLE ON NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN COMBINATION
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS(PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) RE ANTICIPATED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FINALLY...NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL MID TO LATER JULY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ANTICIPATED FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN WARMING
AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z...THEN DRIFT EASTWARD
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KCOS AND KALS TERMINALS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF VCTS TO JUST KALS AND
KCOS FOR NOW...THOUGH THERE WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ON THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WIND FIELDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH HRRR AND LAMP
DATA TO DEPICT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. TIMING THOUGHT IS PROBABLY
TOO FAST.
OTHERWISE...STRONG 1018 MB HIGH OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC/NORTHEAST NJ AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR CT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
WAVES STILL AT 5 FT FROM THE BUOY JUST OFFSHORE FIRE ISLAND
(44094). SOME UPWELLING FROM THE NORTH WINDS HAS LOWERED SST`S
INTO THE UPPER 60S AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING FROM NORTHERN NY STATE TO
CAPE COD TONIGHT...CAN EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS NYC AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS
OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP UP AS SFC DEWPOINTS APPROACH 60. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION...BUT FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS DURING SATURDAY. WE DESTABILIZE...AND WITH A
TROUGH RUNNING THROUGH THE CWA...SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
CAPE PROBABLY PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS THE WIND PROFILE VEERS WITH HEIGHT...BUT
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS IS WEAK SPEED SHEAR/MARGINAL
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. AN INVERTED-V PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ALTHOUGH COULD HELP PRODUCE A STRONG GUST OR TWO. MAV/NAM MOS
BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH THE SETUP. THE TROUGH
REMAINS IN A SIMILAR POSITION...BUT QPF FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE TROUGH WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE
BEST. WILL THEREFORE LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SERVE AS FOCUSES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BKN-OVC SKY
CONDS...HOLDING BACK CAPE. IF THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...CAPE COULD BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SEVERE
STORMS A MUCH GREATER CONCERN. HIGH TEMPS COULD ALSO END UP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AS MODELS SHOW 850 TEMPS
INCREASING TO 18-19C. HEAT INDICES WOULD ALSO THEREFORE CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR SOME SPOTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY KEEPING US DRY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
N-NNE FLOW GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. A VEERING OF WINDS TO SE-S FLOW OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT-MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. 25 KT WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY...BUT SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 4-6 FT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING.
SUB-SCA CONDS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE
WATERS.
QUIET WITH RESPECT TO PREVAILING WINDS/SEAS FROM FRI NIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. TSTMS COULD POSE LOCAL HAZARDS ON SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
FORECAST.
TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE CONDUCTED TODAY AT 11AM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
EQUIPMENT...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
921 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...MORNING CANAVERAL SOUNDING AND GPS DATA SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THERE WERE ALREADY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST.
SOUNDING DATA AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO
AROUND MINUS 6 CELSIUS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING HAS WORKED DOWN INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS AND WAS ERODING CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
ELEVATED. THE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SEA BREEZE...BUT LOCALIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD
GENERATE A FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE FROM
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF BURSTS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
AFTER LOOKING AT THE HRRR/LOCAL WRF MODELS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...THINK THAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING
50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR AND AROUND 60
PERCENT ELSEWHERE STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING
W/SW FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH SCT TO NMRS TSRA DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
EXPECTED. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. INCLUDED 2HR TEMPO GROUPS
FOR MVFR CONDS IN TSRA RANGING FROM 16Z-20Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS (MLB-SUA) MAY SEE PREVAILING RA WITH VCTS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING...THEN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS NEAR THE
COAST AROUND 1 FT AND UP TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE WITH A BIT OF A WIND
CHOP. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTN. COVERAGE LOOKS HIGHER FROM
THE CAPE SOUTHWARD BUT ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS SO ONE OR MORE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL
PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTRACOASTAL AND ADJ ATLC
WATERS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
716 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] The forecast reasoning from earlier this
morning largely still holds true. In general, VFR conditions will
prevail other than IFR visibilities in and near thunderstorms.
Some storms could have gusty winds over 30 knots. The terminals
most likely to be impacted would be ECP and TLH, anytime prior to
00Z. DHN and VLD may be affected as well, but that would be more
likely in the afternoon hours. Isolated storms are possible near
Albany, but the lower chances preclude a mention of VCTS in the
TAF at this time.
&&
.Prev Discussion [430 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
It looks like another day with fairly high convective coverage, this
time across the southern half of the area and the coastal waters of
the Gulf of Mexico. There are already signs of renewed convective
initiation near the coastline of Taylor and Dixie Counties in the
Florida Big Bend at 08Z. This is occurring in a region of enhanced 0-
2km moisture flux convergence per RAP analysis, and that area of
convergence is expected to persist over the next several hours into
the mid-morning. Convection-allowing models (CAM) are almost
unanimous in developing widespread convection between 10Z and 15Z,
generally south of a Panama City to Madison FL line. This is the
area we have inserted 60-80% PoPs for the early-mid morning. After
that, additional convective development should occur along sea-
breeze boundaries and around the periphery of any convective cloud
shield lingering from the morning hours. Showers and storms should
be more isolated across the northern half of our area.
One concern with the morning round of storms in the coastal Big Bend
and Panhandle is localized very heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding. Our local ensemble of CAMs has several members producing
over 6" of rain in a 6-hr period (or less) this morning. The average
QPF in Gulf, Franklin, and Dixie Counties is as high as 2".
Regarding the possibility of higher-end amounts, the derived
neighborhood probability (for today) of over 6" of rain from the
ensemble in the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend is around
30%. With 6-hour flash flood guidance from SERFC around 5-6", we
felt there was enough of a chance of flash flooding to warrant a
Flash Flood Watch for those areas. Outside of the flash flooding
threat, there will be the possibility for some isolated severe
storms again today - particularly in our Florida zones that can
receive more substantial heating in the morning and early
afternoon.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
The trough along the U.S. East Coast will lift away to the east
allowing the ridge over Texas to build back to the east. This
should reduce the chances for organized MCSs to organize and work
their way southward into the forecast area. We will still be
dealing with a very unstable air mass south of the cold front
which should stall across the northernmost portions of the
forecast area tonight and then gradually dissipate. Evening PoPs
will be much higher well south of the front across the coastal FL
zones where the flash flood watch will be maintained into the
overnight hours. For Friday and Saturday, we will settle back into
a more typical summer pattern with scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, a few of which could reach strong to
marginally severe limits. Temps will generally be 2-5 degrees
above normal.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley will wobble back
to the west over Texas by Monday as some short wave energy begins
to move off the Mid Atlantic coast. This may open up the
possibility for northwest flow to become re-established by then,
but at this time it does not look very pronounced. A surface
trough will be over or near the forecast area for much of the
period. PoPs will be near climo (40-50%) through the period. Temps
will remain above normal.
.Marine...
The pressure gradient across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will
remain tighter than is typical for mid summer. The result will be
a continuation of WSW winds around 15 knots through tonight.
Conditions will be unsettled over the waters during this time with
a few rounds of strong to severe storms possible. By Friday, winds
will finally drop back to seasonal speeds with daily enhancements
each afternoon and evening in the sea breeze through the weekend
and into next week.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days across the area.
.Hydrology...
There will be the potential for localized very heavy rainfall today,
and possibly again late tonight and into early Friday, across parts
of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. The greatest chance for
rainfall amounts exceeding 6 inches through Friday would be in the
lower portions of river basins (closer to the Gulf of Mexico).
Therefore, the threat of widespread river flooding is not
particularly high, but some smaller streams in the Florida
Panhandle, and perhaps rivers such as the Steinhatchee River and
Econfina River in the Florida Big Bend could be affected. The main
threat from the localized heavy rainfall would be flash flooding of
urban or low lying areas.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 92 75 95 76 95 / 60 30 40 30 40
Panama City 87 80 90 80 90 / 60 30 40 30 40
Dothan 95 76 97 76 97 / 50 20 30 20 30
Albany 95 75 96 75 95 / 30 20 30 20 30
Valdosta 93 74 95 74 95 / 70 30 40 30 40
Cross City 88 75 92 74 93 / 80 60 50 30 50
Apalachicola 89 79 92 79 92 / 80 40 40 40 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Taylor-Inland
Wakulla-Lafayette-Liberty.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Gulf.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THIS
WILL SET INDIANA UP FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
MOVING EAST. CURRENT HRRR AND NAM BRING THESE SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT RAP/GFS DO NOT. GIVEN
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ALOFT CAN/T RULE OUT A SHOWER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING...BUT THINK POSSIBILITY COULD BE BETTER
FOR A BRIEF SPRINKLE GIVEN DRIER AIR MASS HERE. BROUGHT ISOLATED
SPRINKLES INTO PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THIS WAVE THE
PAST FEW RUNS SO WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS BEFORE 0Z IN THE
NORTHWEST...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FROM
THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORED WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND WENT UP A BIT
FROM THERE IN THE SOUTH BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING GUIDANCE AND TODAY GETTING SOME WARM ADVECTION BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
USED A CONSENSUS...BUT WITH POPS THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
NUMBERS DUE MOSTLY TO TIMING DISCREPANCIES.
A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
ENOUGH FORCING WITH IT TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ABOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AS
WELL WILL HELP WITH THE FORCING AND BEHIND IT MORE WARM MOIST AIR
WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT CERTAIN RADAR WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE VARIETY IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RETURNING TO
AROUND 70 SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. FLATTENS AND
ALLOWS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM EXPECT TO SEE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW TO INTERACT WITH THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS.
ISOLATED SEVERE POP UP STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYS WITH
LARGE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR.
AIR AND SOIL MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 90S EVEN WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS SAID GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
SITUATION WELL AND GENERALLY STILL USED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREE
MARK... AND COULD APPROACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY ISSUANCE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HEAT ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY MONDAY. STAGNANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD SUPPLY A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. ANY WAVE COULD TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOWER 90S AT MOST SPOTS SUNDAY. THE HEAT INDEX COULD REACH
105 AT TIMES SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN NOT AS WARM OR HUMID WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY BRIEF MVFR FOG SHOULD BE OVER BY ISSUANCE
TIME. UPPER WAVE IN ZONAL FLOW AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND IOWA STORMS WILL BRING A MID DECK ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF DIURNAL CU WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WELL TO THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
LAF...TONIGHT...HOWEVER AND COULD BRING A STORM OR TWO THERE AFTER
00Z AND IND AND HUF AFTER 03Z. EVEN SO...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH IT BEING 12 PLUS
HOURS OUT. WILL TRY AGAIN FOR THE 18Z OR 00Z TAFS TO SEE IF WE CAN
FIND A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AT IND AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AS THEY SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED FROM -75 CELSIUS IN
THE MCS ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...THE MCS DID CYCLE THROUGH ANOTHER
COOLING/WARMING/COOLING TREND IN THE 04-08Z TIME FRAME.
VWP FROM SURROUNDING RADAR SITES INDICATE 850MB INFLOW INTO THE
MCS HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KNOTS SO THE MCS IS LIKELY AT MATURITY
AND SHOULD START A SLOW DECAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LLJ
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THE MCS SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST OR JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF EAST.
RADAR HAS 1 HOUR RAINFALL RATES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES/HOUR WITH
SMALL POCKETS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES/HOUR FROM KEOKUK COUNTY SOUTH
TO VAN BUREN COUNTY THAT ARE MOVING EAST. RAP MODEL TRENDS HAVE
THE BACKWARD AND FORWARD CORFIDI VECTORS NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO
EACH OTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THUS THE RISK OF ANY FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHER
THERE.
BASED ON THE CURRENT 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...IF RAINFALL
RATES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES/HOUR THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE CURRENT ROUND OF RAIN BUT THERE WOULD BE AREAS OF
STANDING WATER. URBAN AREAS MAY SEE PROBLEMS WITH SOME STREET
FLOODING.
IF THE RAP MODEL TRENDS ARE CORRECT...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ONCE THE CURRENT MCS DISSIPATES.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM THIS MCS
WOULD THEN BE THE FOCUS POINTS FOR THE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
AT 330 AM CDT...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI DOWNSTREAM OF
A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SO FAR TONIGHT...ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WEST OF THE DVN CWA BUT ONE
RELATIVELY LARGE COMPLEX IS ONLY ABOUT ONE TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
WEST AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30...BUT DOES NOT INCLUDE LINN OR
BENTON COUNTIES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HIGHWAY 30.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
OF I-80. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THROUGH E IOWA/NE MISSOURI/W
ILLINOIS... SCATTERED CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
ANALYSIS OF SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES MODELS COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED
CAPE GRADIENTS AND SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ZONES OF FLASH FLOODING.
PWATS ARE FORECAST NEAR 2 INCHES...MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-3000
J/KG...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR ONLY NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLY 40 KTS. THEREFORE
THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISKS TODAY ARE FIRST FLASH FLOODING
AND SECOND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH A LITTLE LOWER THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATE GENERAL PROPAGATION THIS
AFTN AND EVENING ARE 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH BACK- BUILDING VECTORS
SUGGEST CONTINUAL REDEVELOPMENT INTO ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH CONCEPTUALLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
A PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SEEN FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HEADLINES FOR HEAT WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. MOST MODELS POINT TO FRIDAY BEING DRY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING FROM MINNESOTA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT...CATCHING THE THE FAR NORTH. OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY. IF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BOUNDARIES CREATED BY THOSE STORMS WOULD HELP CREATE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
HEADLINES FOR HEAT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED SATURDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY...HEAT HEADLINES BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.
WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
SUNDAY ON...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HEAT INDEX READING APPROACHING 100.
THE WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN MONDAY
COULD EASILY END UP BEING DRY. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN LINGERING RAIN MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LINGERING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT MIGHT GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROJECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THAT MIGHT GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
MCS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA
WILL COME ACRS AND PROBABLY BE A BIG IMPACT AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES EXCEPT MAYBE DBQ WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS AFTER 3 AM
CDT. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...
A POSSIBLE VFR MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE SCTRD
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF MOST OF THE AIRPORTS
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY THU MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KTS BY THU AFTERNOON. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
646 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON EARLY
MORNING GOES WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY DROPPING OVER THE REGION. RAP
GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THE ENERGY WELL...DROPPING IT OVER ERN VA
ATTM. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST WITH ADDED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MOISTURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU 7 AM.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY INLAND.
FOR TODAY...TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
NWLY. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WITH PWATS PROGGED
TO DROP AOB 1 INCH. SFC WINDS BECOME NNE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. LOWER THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO AND H85 TEMPS
AROUND 15-17C WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY IS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH RH VALUES AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WRN HALF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S SE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF
STATES...RESULTING IN INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THICKNESSES REBOUND FRI...AS H85 TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C. THIS
TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND...BUT REMAINING
COOLER NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. WHILE MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE REGION...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
WILL KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO UPSLOPE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY FORECAST FRI WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AS UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND
SAT MORNING...PRODUCING PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ADDED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GO ALONG WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES) AND PERTURBATIONS IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMING TREND CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE PLAINS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD/JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS/RH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RETURN
(SSW) FLOW SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN
WILL BECOMES A BIT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH THE WEAK LLVL HEIGHT FALLS ALLOWING A LEE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCT
SHRAS EACH AFTN SUN/MON (BEST FORCING REMAINS TO OUR NNW BOTH
DAYS).
BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD COME ON TUESDAY AS SFC BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNING TO A
FAMILIAR SETUP AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
SUNDAY...INCREASING INTO THE MID 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 70-75F.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD...HOWEVER DATA SUPPORTS A BKN TO OCNL OVC SC
DECK BTWN 4-5K FT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THROUGH 00Z.
CHALLENGING FORECAST AFTER 00Z AS MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT SOLNS
WRT CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH EVEN
SOME FOG DVLPNG AFTR MIDNIGHT WHILE THE GFS SCATTERS OUT THE SC
CLOUD DECK WITH PTCHY FOG DVLPNG. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE 12Z
ISSUANCE AND SCT OUT THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS SERN TAF SITES BUT KEPT
A BKN CLOUD DECK AT SBY THROUGH 06Z. PTCHY FOG PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENUF TO PUT IN FCST ATTM.
OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER XPCTD FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
LOW CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST CHANCE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NRLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT CAME IN RTHR QUICK WITH WINDS BEHIND
LINE OF SHWRS / CD FRNT GUSTING BTWN 20-25 KTS OVR THE SRN CHES BAY.
SURGE PROGGED TO CONT FOR NEXT SVRL HRS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS SO WILL
KEEP SCA FOR CHES BAY GOING THRU 14Z. SCA`S ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS
LOOKING MARGINAL AND MAINLY FOR SEAS BLDG TO 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM.
WINDS / SEAS ALL SUBSIDE BLO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE GRDNT
RELAXES. NE FLOW BECOMES E FRI THEN S FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH PRS
MOVES OFF NEW ENDLAND COAST. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS. SWLY
FLOW XPCTD SUN AND MON WITH CHCS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW WITH SURF ZONE
WAVES BTWN 3-4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
958 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...SUBTLE EVIDENCE THIS MORNING THAT CONVECTION FROM LATE
YESTERDAY LEFT A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND GWO SE TO AROUND MEI. RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS RATHER POTENT THETAE RIDGE AT 850MB OVERTOP OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH EVEN THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING (WEST OF THIS AXIS) DEPICTING MUCH
LESS CAPPING AND BETTER LAPSE RATES THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SEEMS TO BE LOCATED JUST A LITTLE
WEST OF THE MS RIVER BUT WV IMAGERY SHOW SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES
COULD SLIDE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE TO INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD
20 TO 30 POPS CO-LOCATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN
ABOVE EVIDENCE AND LATEST HRRR PICKING UP BETTER ON ACTIVITY I WILL
BUMP UP POPS SOME 5 TO 15 POINTS IN EASTERN ZONES. IN
ADDITION...PEAK SBCAPE NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 5000 J/KG
AROUND THIS CONVERGENT AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OTHER
PARAMETERS ALSO SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR MICROBURST DEVELOPMENT. WITH
THIS IN MIND INCLUDED A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPS AND HEAT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER`S EXPECTATIONS IN THAT REGARD. OF COURSE LATE-DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES
(MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY)...BUT WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE TO SPARE FROM
THE WORST OF THE AFTERNOON HEAT. STILL ANTICIPATING PARTS OF THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA TO SEE APPARENT TEMPS PEAK A LITTLE ABOVE 110 THIS
AFTERNOON SO HEAT WARNING THERE SEEMS WARRANTED. WILL LIKELY AT
LEAST MAKE SOME FINE-SCALE ADJUSTMENTS TO HEAT PRODUCTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER SEEING THE WAY THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS./BB/
&&
.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST MS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AT GTR, MEI, AND HBG. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
FARTHER EASTWARD, BECOMING CENTERED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAKENING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH WAS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WED AFTERNOON/
EVENING, THIS FEATURE REMAINS POSITIONED THIS MORNING FROM NORTH MS
INTO AL. IT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH GREATER MID LEVEL (AND FOR THAT
MATTER, DEEP LAYER) MOISTURE TODAY, AND SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY THAT WILL EXIST, A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE, BUT THE THREAT IS TOO CONDITIONAL
TO INCLUDE IN HAZARD PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. DIURNAL CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, MOS MAX TEMP OFFERINGS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
STAYING WELL UP INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS (SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST).
ON THE OTHER HAND, IN HOUSE MODEL BLENDS APPEARED TOO LOW FOR TODAY.
THUS OPTED TO TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR TODAY`S HIGHS...MAKING
JUST A FEW TWEAKS FROM YESTERDAY`S OBSERVED MAX. THIS ALONG WITH
FORECAST DEWPOINTS (ALSO BASED SOMEWHAT ON PERSISTENCE) YIELDED HEAT
INDICES OVER 110 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA. READINGS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFF AND ON OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT MOST PERSISTENTLY IN THIS
PARTICULAR AREA. SEE LITTLE REASON WHY THAT WOULD CHANGE TODAY,
THEREFORE, AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR A PORTION
OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA THROUGH 00Z. BEYOND THAT TIME, WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY, THOUGH AN UPGRADE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED SOUTHWARD BY
A ROW OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES EFFECTIVE THROUGH FRIDAY. /DL/
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SOME OF THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WHERE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SITES WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK
ACROSS OUR NORTH EACH AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 110 EACH DAY SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WARRANTING AT LEAST A CONTINUATION OF A HEAT ADVISORY
AND/OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COME SATURDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE 594DAM RIDGE
AXIS WILL EXTEND OVER OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 1015MB
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS FLOW IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA BUT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY STORM IN OUR CWA WILL BE THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOW NO RAINFALL
OVER OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PORTIONS OF THE DELTA
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MONDAY A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE LARGE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND TRY TO DROP AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUR WAY. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT SOME CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN MAY TRACK OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS A RESULT ON TUESDAY. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR
A LITTLE MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH AS WELL.
/22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 96 77 96 77 / 17 13 10 5
MERIDIAN 95 75 95 75 / 35 24 16 7
VICKSBURG 95 75 95 75 / 9 5 7 4
HATTIESBURG 95 77 95 77 / 24 20 25 12
NATCHEZ 93 74 93 74 / 9 5 11 5
GREENVILLE 97 77 96 77 / 11 7 5 3
GREENWOOD 95 76 95 76 / 21 14 6 3
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ027>033-036>060.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
019-025-026-034-035.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025-026-034-035.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
BB/15/DL/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
957 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OFF THE COAST AND STALL
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMBINE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING SATURDAY TO BRING A
RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX/CHS INDICATE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE MODIFIES TO
1500 J/KG WITH A LI TO -4C WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH LOW
90S. ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AND INITIATE
ALONG SURFACE BASED BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAD ALREADY PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS OF
12Z. ANY TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER GORGEOUS MID-JULY DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOWERED HUMIDITY THANKS
TO DRY W/NW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AND STILL COOL NE
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES OR LESS...WHICH COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION FRIDAY
WHILE PERMITTING AMPLE SUNSHINE. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 90 FOR HIGHS...AND IN THE LOW 70S FOR MINS.
500MB RIDGE EXPANDS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SATURDAY...BULGING NE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS DRIVES INCREASING HEIGHTS
LOCALLY...WHICH COMBINE WITH SLOWLY RETURNING SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE TO CREATE A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY
SATURDAY. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO SQUELCH MOST
CONVECTION...BUT SCHC POP IS NEEDED ALONG THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES DUE
TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING CREATING A HIGHLY UNSTABLE COLUMN. DO NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT...BUT
A FEW STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ARE
POSSIBLE...WANING AFTER DARK IN THE USUAL FASHION. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...MID 90S WEST OF I-95
TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW
70S...MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF COAST
REGION WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS COMING
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHTLY SW TO NE RIDGE AXIS CREATING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS LOCALLY. AS THE RIDGE CENTER REMAINS WEST OF THE
CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY W/NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SO WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL HELP SPAWN CONVECTION
EACH AFTN/EVE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING APPEARS ON THE HORIZON
AND ONLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. WITH HEIGHTS
BULGING ALOFT TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-90S EACH AFTN AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. A TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD BUT ANY IMPACTS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANY PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE
HOUR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY STAY THERE
WHILE IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. THINK IT WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. POST
FRONTAL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION WILL FORM INLAND FROM THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AT 12Z. A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
WIND SPEEDS REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS
AROUND 3 FT THIS MORNING AND LITTLE CHANGE IN WAVE HEIGHT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS LOW OVER THE
WATERS...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NW TO N
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ANY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT STANDS A CHANCE
OF DRIFTING OFF THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
FRIDAY...LEAVING NE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT HOWEVER...LESS THAN 10 KTS...AS NO SIGNIFICANT COOL SURGE IS
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY ON FRIDAY SUCH THAT
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL SWELL...SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A NE WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOME THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCES ON THE COASTAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS...BUT REACHING UP
TO 15 KTS IN THE EVENINGS AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SW
WIND WAVE THE PRIMARY GROUPS CREATING THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
625 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OFF THE COAST AND STALL
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMBINE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING SATURDAY TO BRING A
RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT IN PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS FRONT STALLING EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER
DEWPOINT VALUES ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY IT WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING LIGHT NE TO
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING
COLD FROPA...HOWEVER MODEST IT MAY BE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TODAYS
TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...LOWER THAN RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED AND RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING GOING TODAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND EXTENSIVE DRYING ALOFT. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY. SO...INTRODUCING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO THE STALLED FRONT AND ALSO WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT LIKELY WILL REMAIN
PINNED NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE MODEST AND
SHORT-LIVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER GORGEOUS MID-JULY DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOWERED HUMIDITY THANKS
TO DRY W/NW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AND STILL COOL NE
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES OR LESS...WHICH COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION FRIDAY
WHILE PERMITTING AMPLE SUNSHINE. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 90 FOR HIGHS...AND IN THE LOW 70S FOR MINS.
500MB RIDGE EXPANDS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SATURDAY...BULGING NE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS DRIVES INCREASING HEIGHTS
LOCALLY...WHICH COMBINE WITH SLOWLY RETURNING SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE TO CREATE A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY
SATURDAY. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEND TO SQUELCH MOST
CONVECTION...BUT SCHC POP IS NEEDED ALONG THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES DUE
TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING CREATING A HIGHLY UNSTABLE COLUMN. DO NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT...BUT
A FEW STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ARE
POSSIBLE...WANING AFTER DARK IN THE USUAL FASHION. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...MID 90S WEST OF I-95
TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW
70S...MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF COAST
REGION WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS COMING
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHTLY SW TO NE RIDGE AXIS CREATING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS LOCALLY. AS THE RIDGE CENTER REMAINS WEST OF THE
CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY W/NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SO WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL HELP SPAWN CONVECTION
EACH AFTN/EVE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING APPEARS ON THE HORIZON
AND ONLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. WITH HEIGHTS
BULGING ALOFT TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-90S EACH AFTN AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. A TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD BUT ANY IMPACTS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANY PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE
HOUR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY STAY THERE
WHILE IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. THINK IT WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. POST
FRONTAL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION WILL FORM INLAND FROM THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 605 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
COLD FRONT IN PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. AS THERE IS NO REAL COLD SURGE
FOLLOWING FROPA AND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SLACK EXPECT THAT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...TURNING NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
SETTLE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
FRIDAY...LEAVING NE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT HOWEVER...LESS THAN 10 KTS...AS NO SIGNIFICANT COOL SURGE IS
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY ON FRIDAY SUCH THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF ANY
MEANINGFUL SWELL...SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NE WIND CHOP
PREDOMINANT FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOME THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCES ON THE COASTAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS...BUT REACHING UP
TO 15 KTS IN THE EVENINGS AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND SW
WIND WAVE THE PRIMARY GROUPS CREATING THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SEVERE STORMS WILL HINGE ON
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PRECIP...SO HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. THE MAIN SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVEN THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ONCE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ND...EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ND...AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL /H7-H5/ TROF. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOW ACROSS
ERN ND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE RRV AND
INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE FORENOON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
PATCHY SUNSHINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HEATING IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...AND WILL PROVIDE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF THERE AND FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 AND RAP13
BOTH SHOW UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE 0-2KM FROM 18-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN ND...WITH HIGH VALUES TRANSLATING INTO
WCNTRL MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HRRR AND NSSL
CAMS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DISTINCTLY STRONGER CELLS IN
THE SOUTHERN RRV /19-22Z/ ...CONSISTENT WITH SPC DY1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS
FROM EAST FLANK OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WIDEPSREAD WETTING RAINS AND THUNDER
ARE TO BE EXPECTED...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS THERE. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AGAIN
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA FROM DY2 INTO DY3.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS THE PATTERN BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT...WITH A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH. LOOK FOR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT MOVING
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST
OVERNIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHILE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. GREATEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT
THEN WORKS EAST SO THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC TO THE TIME
LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS TO CONFINE POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
GENERALLY TO ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW QUICKLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA.
REFLECTIVITY AS OF 07 UTC WAS SHOWING PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW STORMS AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE SOUTH. MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHERN STORMS ARE TAPPING
INTO THE GREATER AMOUNTS OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE REGION ALONG
WITH A THIN BAND OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FLOWING NORTH ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE STORM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
IS PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WARRANTING A FLOOD
ADVISORY. WHILE A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT SEE ANY REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL LACKING IN
THE AREA AND EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXITING CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY THE NAM...ECMWF..AND GFS 00 UTC RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTA MINNESOTA BORDER BY 00 UTC FRIDAY. WHILE
THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 00 UTC FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
A TRANSITION TO A LESS ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON ONE MORE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS. ML CAPE
AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED. THEREAFTER....A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE
MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. INTO NEXT WEEK UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT KJMS...AND
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACK EDGE COULD IMPACT KBIS. OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COVERAGE AT THIS TIME
IS SCATTERED...HOWEVER...AT TIMES CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
IN THE MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE INTO NORTHEAST ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE. THERE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING INTO SW ND THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO AID MORE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE WITH A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ND...EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ND...AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL /H7-H5/ TROF. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOW ACROSS
ERN ND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE RRV AND
INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE FORENOON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
PATCHY SUNSHINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HEATING IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...AND WILL PROVIDE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF THERE AND FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 AND RAP13
BOTH SHOW UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE 0-2KM FROM 18-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN ND...WITH HIGH VALUES TRANSLATING INTO
WCNTRL MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HRRR AND NSSL
CAMS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DISTINCTLY STRONGER CELLS IN
THE SOUTHERN RRV /19-22Z/ ...CONSISTENT WITH SPC DY1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS
FROM EAST FLANK OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WIDEPSREAD WETTING RAINS AND THUNDER
ARE TO BE EXPECTED...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS THERE. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AGAIN
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA FROM DY2 INTO DY3.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS THE PATTERN BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT...WITH A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH. LOOK FOR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT MOVING
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST
OVERNIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC TO THE TIME
LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS TO CONFINE POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
GENERALLY TO ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW QUICKLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA.
REFLECTIVITY AS OF 07 UTC WAS SHOWING PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW STORMS AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE SOUTH. MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHERN STORMS ARE TAPPING
INTO THE GREATER AMOUNTS OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE REGION ALONG
WITH A THIN BAND OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FLOWING NORTH ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE STORM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
IS PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WARRANTING A FLOOD
ADVISORY. WHILE A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT SEE ANY REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL LACKING IN
THE AREA AND EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXITING CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY THE NAM...ECMWF..AND GFS 00 UTC RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTA MINNESOTA BORDER BY 00 UTC FRIDAY. WHILE
THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 00 UTC FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
A TRANSITION TO A LESS ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON ONE MORE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS. ML CAPE
AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED. THEREAFTER....A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE
MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. INTO NEXT WEEK UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT KJMS...AND
REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACK EDGE COULD IMPACT KBIS. OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COVERAGE AT THIS TIME
IS SCATTERED...HOWEVER...AT TIMES CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
IN THE MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
APPEARS SLIM TO NIL TODAY AS 12Z RAOBS AROUND THE REGION ALL SHOW
A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW
SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK SO FAR...SO NO UPDATE WILL BE
NEEDED.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
614 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TODAY/THIS
EVENING...FOG LATER TONIGHT.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO WAS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS
IA/MN. LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER OF THE MOISTURE RETURN/CONVERGENCE
WAS OVER WESTERN IA...WHERE CONVECTION WAS FIRING AND SPREADING
SLOWLY EAST AND NORTH. STRONGER OF THE CONVECTION WAS NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER...IN THE STRONGER MOISTURE FLOW AND CLOSER TO THE CAPE POOL.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA MAINLY SHRA WITH ISOLATED
TSRA...IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT AHEAD A SHORTWAVE OVER
EASTERN NEB. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS WI/MN WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS ND WITH/AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE.
NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 16.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. HOWEVER WEAKER
GRADIENT/HGT FIELDS AT MANY LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR DO ALLOW FOR
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO MOVE A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN LK MI BY
12Z THIS MORNING...THEN DIFFER ON DETAILS OF ENERGY TO FOLLOW IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN ON THE ND
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 00Z THEN INTO SOUTHWEST ONT
TONIGHT. OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS TODAY/TONIGHT.
BUT...DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEIR IMPACTS ON SHRA/TSRA EVOLUTION
LEAD TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
LEAD TO A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE OUTCOMES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS A STRONG SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
AND HEAVER PRECIP FROM MODEL RUNS OF 15.00Z. THIS PLAYING OUT
ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH TSRA COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST IA MARKING THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/
CONVERGENCE. THIS COMPLEX INTERCEPTING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE/CAPE
THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA WITH THE VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PW AIRMASS DOES LOOK TO MAKE
IT INTO THE FCST AREA BUT THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING NOW TRENDS SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LESSER PRECIP
CHANCES/AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...TIED TO PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVES. BULK OF BOTH STANDARD AND HI-RES/WRF MODELS NOW SPREAD A
WEAKENING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TODAY...WEAKENING AS THE BAND MOVES AWAY FROM THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SHIFTING HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES TODAY TO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. ANY
SEVERE TSRA THREAT TODAY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AS WELL...
WITH GENERALLY LIMITED CAPE INTO THE AREA EVEN BY 00Z. ND SHORTWAVE
AND ITS FORCING/LIFT STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AROUND 06Z. CONTINUED TO
TREND PRECIP CHANCE DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THE EVENING WITH
MAINLY A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. SOME DRYING/SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS...FOR DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME CLEARING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTINUED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT TO ABOUT
12Z FRI MORNING. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...SEVERE TSRA RISK SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...
TEMPERATURES.
MODEL RUNS OF 16.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS
QUICKLY BRING THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO ND BY 12Z
SAT...THEN TRACK THIS EAST ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER SAT/SAT NIGHT AND
LOWER HGTS ACROSS THE REGION. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF THE EARLIER
MODEL RUNS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED IN THIS PERIOD...HAVING POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTION FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
FAVORING THE MODEL CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH WEAK BUT DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS SEEN ON FRI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
CAPPING/CIN REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRI WITH SOME OF THE DRIER 900-
850MB AIR MIXING DOWN AND SFC DEW POINTS MORE IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 VS. THE 70S SHOWN IN THE NAM/GFS SFC DEW POINT PROGS. LEFT
FRI DRY. A WARM AIRMASS OVER THE AREA FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90S. WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 70...FRI AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CLIMB INTO THE 90-95 RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY STARTS TO RETURN FRI
NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ND. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WHERE ANY STRONGER LOWER LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE MAY
FOCUS BUT SOME 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT REASONABLE FOR NOW. MORE
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE/LIFT LOOKING TO MOVE
INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE
SFC-805MB FRONT/TROUGH BEING DRAGGED EAST BY THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN. PW VALUES BACK IN THE 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT/TOUGH BY 00Z SUN. THIS WITH MUCAPE IN THE 2K-4K J/KG
RANGE SAT AFTERNOON AND 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE. THE STRONGER SHEAR MORE SAT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF THE
TROUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING SOME CAPPING SAT AFTERNOON...RATHER
WEAK BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS IN SWODY3 STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
TSRA WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE MORE SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB FRONT/
TROUGH MOVE IN. GIVEN DETAIL DIFFERENCES...STAYED WITH CONSENSUS 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/ TSRA CHANCES SAT...HIGHEST NORTH...THEN CONTINUED
THE 50-60 PERCENT CHANCES SAT NIGHT. SAT TO BE ANOTHER WARM/MUGGY
DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-100 RANGE BY AFTERNOON. FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SUNDAY...RETURNING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF 16.00Z OFFER REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. AREA IS UNDER A
MUDDIED NORTHWEST FLOW MON INTO TUE...WITH THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
QUASI-ZONAL FOR WED. THE USUAL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ARE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY BY MON INTO WED. COMING OUT OF UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY AND AGAIN SAT/SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE AT BEST THIS CYCLE.
PASSING TROUGH SAT NIGHT SWEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PW
AIRMASS OUT OF THE REGION...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FOR SUN-WED. THIS UNDER THE MUDDIED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SUN-TUE TRENDS DRIER UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT
THIS FAR FROM CERTAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST THRU THIS FLOW AND ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TIMING OF THE SAT NIGHT FRONT/TROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IT TO SLOW
AND NOT PASS UNTIL SUNDAY. LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUN NIGHT/MON
WITH A SLOW WARMUP/RETURN OF MOISTURE MON NIGHT INTO WED AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTH AND THE NEST TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED AS THIS TROUGH WOULD APPROACH/
MOVE INTO THE REGION OKAY FOR NOW. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN
THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS ADVANCING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. EXTRAPOLATING OUT THE LEADING EDGE PUTS IT INTO KRST
AROUND 13Z AND TO KLSE AT 14Z OR SO. INITIALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS BUT AFTER A COUPLE HOURS
OF THE LIGHT RAIN COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. THE
16.09Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT DEVELOP ANY CAPE FOR EITHER
SITE SO WILL KEEP IT JUST SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE 16.09Z HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AND SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE
WILL MOVE THROUGH EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR VERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT VERY WELL COULD BE ALL THE RAIN FOR TODAY AS THE
16.00Z AND 16.06Z MESO-MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE 16.06Z GFS
SUGGESTS THE MVFR DECK SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING SETTING UP
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS AS
THE WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO HELP KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...ESPECIALLY AT KRST SO WILL ONLY GO DOWN
TO A MVFR VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS AT KLSE MAY DECOUPLE
MORE IN THE VALLEY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE VISIBILITY TO GO TO IFR
FOR A WHILE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
940 AM MST THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE DOLORES MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES MIGRATING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO THIS
TIME YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINTS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF TUCSON SHOWS A MARGINAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...STRETCHING FARTHER UP THE COLUMN...WHILE THE PHOENIX
SOUNDING HAS THE OPPOSITE OBSERVATION WITH MORE OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER/LOWER LEVELS AND SLIGHT DECREASE IN
PWAT MOISTURE.
INTERPRETING THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...CURRENT HURRICANE
DOLORES REMAINS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA AND IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION IN THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SETTLES IN ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA AND BAJA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AIDING
IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM DOLORES. TURNING ATTENTION TO THE
EAST...A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CAN BE IDENTIFIED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL HELP ADVECT THIS
FEATURE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. THIS COULD BE THE
DRIVING FACTOR TO BRING THE DYNAMICS NEEDED TO DEVELOP CONVECTION.
IN THE SHORT TERM FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST 16 JULY/...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA INTO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE DOLORES IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA THIS MORNING
AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGESTS PWATS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
1.5-1.7+ INCHES SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ACROSS THE DESERTS
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE SOUTH OF
PHOENIX AS OF 09Z WITH A WEAK WESTWARD- PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SERVING AS THE TRIGGER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THERE`S APPROXIMATELY 300-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
TO WORK WITH. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...I`LL HANG ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL DAYBREAK /AT WHICH
POINT MOST OF THE OUTFLOWS SHOULD HAVE LOST THEIR MOMENTUM/.
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A FAIRLY LOW-GRADE
MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...AS WELL AS ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS SOUTH OF GILA BEND. INHERITED POPS KEPT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OUT OF THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND THIS STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. IF ANYTHING FIRES OVER THE PHOENIX METRO...IT`LL
BE COURTESY OF COLLIDING OUTFLOWS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
MOISTURE FROM DOLORES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AT SOME POINT
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITIES. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN/GFS/NAM ALL
SUGGEST PWATS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
/POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES AROUND YUMA/ FRIDAY NIGHT. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING SIMILAR VALUES...LEADING TO A CONTINUED HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAT UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE /VALUES
APPROACHING THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE/ WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY...ELEVATED MOISTURE IS ONLY ONE-THIRD OF THE
CONVECTIVE PUZZLE BUT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MARKED JUMP IN MLCAPES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXACTLY WHAT FORCING MECHANISM WILL TRIGGER
CONVECTION IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED...BUT THERE`S A FEW SUBTLE
CIRCULATIONS IN THE 500-700MB LAYER OVER SONORA PER THE NAM/GFS
FORECAST THAT I`VE RAISED POPS A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND I RETAINED ELEVATED POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
SATURDAY IS PROBABLY BE THE MOST CHALLENGING DAY TO FIGURE OUT...AS
ELEVATED PWATS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE AREA...NOT TO MENTION THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BE CONTAMINATED FROM
CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING TO AROUND -6 TO -7 C AT 500MB AND FORECAST PROFILES APPEAR
TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE. ANY SORT OF REMNANT MCV FROM STORMS THE
NIGHT BEFORE COULD SERVE AT THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL IT MAY END UP BEING A CLOUDY/MUGGY DAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. AS NEARLY ALL
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC PAINT IN 50-70 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...I`VE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND INCREASED OUR POPS AS WELL.
EXACT TIMING OF WHERE/WHEN STORMS WILL FORM IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN...SO IN REALITY THE POPS ARE LIKELY SPREAD OUT OVER TOO LARGE
OF AN AREA. MADE SURE TO INDICATE ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS THEY WILL ALSO SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MANY OF THE ABOVE
ARGUMENTS ARE ALSO VALID DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ELEVATED MOISTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING OF
SHOWERS.
BY MONDAY THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES A TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL BEGIN A SLOW PERIOD OF DRY ADVECTION /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED
BY THE DETERMINISTIC/PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/PRECIP
CHANCES MIGRATING AWAY FROM THE DESERTS AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
CERTAINLY NOT TO SAY THE DESERTS WILL BE DRYING OUT ENTIRELY...BUT
THERE`S A CLEAR EASTWARD SHIFT IN ALL OF THE KEY PARAMETERS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD. WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A SMALL NUDGE UPWARD LATE NEXT WEEK
WHEN THE FLOW TAKES ON IT`S MORE TYPICAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT TYPICAL EASTERLY AM WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO W-SW HEADINGS BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ELEVATED BREEZES PSBL DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. MORNING SCT-BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AND THIN WITH AFTN SKIES HOSTING SOME FEW-SCT CU FIELDS
GNLY 10KFT OR ABOVE. STORM ACTIVITY PSBL AGAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PHX METRO AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST...WITH INITIAL IMPACT BEING STORM OUTFLOW INTRUSION AND
SUBSEQUENT WIND SHIFTS. INTERSECTING OUTFLOWS MAY SUPPORT POP-UP
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HEDGED WITH VCSH IN THE KIWA 12Z TAF
OVERNIGHT FOR NOW.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT AM WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR KIPL AND KBLH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...COURTESY OF CURRENT EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES...WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST REGION SIGNIFICANTLY BOOSTING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOTE...ONLY THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...NOT THE ACTUAL CIRCULATION ITSELF.
UNDER SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK...EVEN FOR THE WARMEST LOWEST
DESERT LOCALES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND WARM UP BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE WEST TRANSITIONS INTO
THE AREA
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY WARRANT SPOTTER DEPLOYMENT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOTLE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
351 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME HIGHS
BECOME MORE SEASONAL. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE DOLORES
MAY BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA CREST FROM PLUMAS
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THESE CELLS ARE STAYING FAIRLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT THEY SHOULD DRIFT EASTWARD AFTER 7 PM.
AS OF 3 PM VALLEY HIGHS WERE RANGING 93 TO 105. THE SACRAMENTO
METRO REGION IS AROUND 93-95 DEGREES WHILE REDDING IS THE HOT
WINNER AT 105 THIS HOUR. ADDITIONAL HEATING BY A DEGREE OR TWO MAY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SLIGHT COOLING BEGINS TOMORROW (FRIDAY) AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GLANCES FAR NORCAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT MAY EVEN BRING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS IN PLUMAS AND SHASTA COUNTIES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL.
THE NEXT FOCUS IN WEATHER WILL BE HOW REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE DOLORES COULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA ON SUNDAY AND THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT SLOWER AND
SHOWS LESS IMPACT TO OUR AREA. FOR THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDING WITH THE ECMWF WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE VALLEY, THEY WOULD LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PART OF THIS WILL BE
REMNANTS OF DOLORES. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE CREST,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MID
WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES. LOOKING OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. EK
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE STRATUS MAY
CAUSE MVFR CIGS INVOF CARQUINEZ STRAIT THRU 18Z. CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE.
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS INVOF
OF DELTA.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MONSOON PLUME
SHIFTS EASTWARD. STILL SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND AN APPARENT
WEAK WAVE BACK ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC DEW POINTS DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY WHICH WILL REALLY LIMIT
CAPE VALUES AND STORM STRENGTHS. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS...THOUGH SOME OF THE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY
COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE AXIS OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS MAY HANG IN. IF DEW POINTS CAN STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...THEN CAPE VALUES COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR A
LITTLE BETTER. GFS...RAP13 AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRENDING
DRIER WITH SFC DEW POINTS THOUGH...AND IF THIS OCCURS THEN STORM
STRENGTHS WILL BE LOWER. OTHER HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING NMM AND
ARW LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM12. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS MAY STILL LINGER. COULD SEE A MARGINALLY STRONG
STORM OR TWO DOWN THAT WAY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDING TO EXISTING FORECAST DURING THE LONGER
TERM WITH THE MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AT
TIMES)...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME. UPPER RIDGE THEN ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WEST TOWARDS
COLORADO BY MIDDLE ON NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN COMBINATION
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS(PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) RE ANTICIPATED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FINALLY...NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL MID TO LATER JULY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ANTICIPATED FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN WARMING
AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS 18Z-20Z...THEN DRIFT
EASTWARD POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KCOS AND KALS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...WITH
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS. HAVEN`T INCLUDED A VCTS AT KPUB...THOUGH GUSTY
OUTFLOOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
343 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF THE AREA HAS HAD A
SHOWER/STORM/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER ONSET TODAY
WILL ALLOW FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL LINGER.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME RAINFALL INTO LATE EVENING...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER...FROM BREVARD TO OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE
COAST. MOS POPS ARE AROUND 50 PERCENT THERE...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS UNTIL LATE EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FRI-SAT...PERSISTENT WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO DRIFTS SEAWARD AND KEEPS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
1000-700 MB LAYER...PINNING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MEANWHILE...AN 850-300 MB ANTICYCLONE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NUDGE ITS WAY INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH...INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF TO PROVIDE A
NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW ABV 500 MB.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TAP AN AIRMASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...RESULTING IN 700 MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 9C WITH 500 MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND
-6C. THE RESULTING LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 5.0-6.0C/KM THRU THE LAYER
WILL LIMIT OVERALL STORM POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE 50-60PCT AREAWIDE AS A PREFRONTAL MOISTURE BAND SETS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL FL AND KEEPS PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2.0". STORMS WILL GENERATE
LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AS THE 850-500 MB STEERING FLOW...ALREADY
WEAKENED BY THE DEEP FRONTAL TROF...REMAINS LARGELY AT OR BELOW 10KTS.
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 90S. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER-MID 70S WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOUT HALF A CATEGORY
HIGHER (MID-UPPER 70S).
SUN-THU...STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK REFLECTION OF THE FRONTAL TROF PERSISTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PREVENTS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS FROM LINKING
UP WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RESULTING COL
WILL KEEP MEAN WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS...WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE COL WHILE THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
THE WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL ALLOW BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES TO FORM BY MIDDAY AND PUSH WELL INLAND. THE LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE 1000-700 MB LAYER WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
CONCENTRATE OVER THE EAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...THOUGH THE WEAK
STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE AT OR BELOW 50 PERCENT. TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE QUITE EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO A WORKED OVER
ATMOSPHERE BY SUNSET...SO WE ARE EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO BE OVER
BY THEN. SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY PERSIST A LITTLE AFTER DARK FROM TIX-MLB SOUTHWARD TO
SUA. THEN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY VFR.
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON FRI WILL LEAD TO EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION
AGAIN. THE WEST TO EAST STEERING FLOW MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER...
PUSHING BACK THE ONSET TIME SLIGHTLY OVER THE INTERIOR. A SEA
BREEZE COULD ALSO FORM AND BE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST...SO STORM
INTENSITY MAY INCREASE A NOTCH FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD EASE AS FRONTAL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH WEAKENS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT BUT THEN DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS ON FRI. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR
MARINERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW COULD AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS LATE IN
THE MORNING TOO.
WEEKEND-TUE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST PATTERN WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS STAYING QUASI STEADY STATE JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME. SPEEDS WILL BE
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS WEEKEND...SO THERE SHOULD BE A SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS...THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO STRONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
CONTINUATION OF OUR DAILY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR STRONG
STORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SHOWN TIGHTENING UP A BIT MON-
TUE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 91 74 91 / 30 60 30 50
MCO 75 92 75 93 / 20 60 30 60
MLB 74 92 75 91 / 40 60 40 60
VRB 74 92 73 91 / 40 60 40 60
LEE 76 90 77 92 / 20 60 30 50
SFB 76 92 75 92 / 20 60 30 60
ORL 76 92 76 92 / 20 60 30 60
FPR 72 91 73 91 / 40 60 40 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
247 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCS HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA...AND BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE BECOMING MORE FREQUENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST. CAP IS QUICKLY ERODING TO
OUR WEST...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE`S ABOVE 3000 J/KG AS
CLOSE AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTING
SO SHOW SOME AGITATION TO THE CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...IN AN AREA WHERE THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN STARTING UP THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION. ITS SOLUTION
EXPANDS THE CONVECTION NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
VERY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST SOLUTIONS FAVORING AN EASTWARD
SPREAD NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NMM AND ARW ALSO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH LESSER OF A SOUTHWEST EXTENT. THUS...WILL
FOCUS THE HIGHEST POP`S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO CHICAGO...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH A TAD SOUTHWARD AND THEN EAST THROUGH CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION
COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ANALYZED OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND THIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME.
MESOSCALE MODELS FOCUS THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST HAVE ALSO HAD A FEW INCHES OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE A BIT MORE FLOOD PRONE. MOST OF THE
NORTH HALF OF ILLINOIS IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING PER
GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. HOWEVER, THE
PRIMARY THEME AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS WELL AS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON) IS THE VERY WARM HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 90S ARE LIKELY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S, AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. THIS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100-105 OR A
LITTLE WARMER DURING PEAK HEATING TIMES. THIS IS CLOSE TO HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS, AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER, OPTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE MORE SOLIDLY 105 OR BETTER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOCAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CAPPED
TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY (PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST
ABOVE 850 MB). HOWEVER, ELEVATED STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, PRODUCING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS (ASIDE FROM TONIGHT). THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
ALSO SUPPORTS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
SUNDAY`S SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SOUTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH SUNDAY`S SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP
TO SHUNT THE BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN FADING...AND ONLY SOME LINGERING VCTS EXPECTED
FROM IT AT KCMI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
SOME RENEWED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPIA LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
ELSEWHERE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GO MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
041>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THIS
WILL SET INDIANA UP FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
MOVING EAST. CURRENT HRRR AND NAM BRING THESE SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT RAP/GFS DO NOT. GIVEN
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ALOFT CAN/T RULE OUT A SHOWER IN
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING...BUT THINK POSSIBILITY COULD BE BETTER
FOR A BRIEF SPRINKLE GIVEN DRIER AIR MASS HERE. BROUGHT ISOLATED
SPRINKLES INTO PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THIS WAVE THE
PAST FEW RUNS SO WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS BEFORE 0Z IN THE
NORTHWEST...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FROM
THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORED WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND WENT UP A BIT
FROM THERE IN THE SOUTH BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING GUIDANCE AND TODAY GETTING SOME WARM ADVECTION BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
USED A CONSENSUS...BUT WITH POPS THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
NUMBERS DUE MOSTLY TO TIMING DISCREPANCIES.
A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
ENOUGH FORCING WITH IT TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ABOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AS
WELL WILL HELP WITH THE FORCING AND BEHIND IT MORE WARM MOIST AIR
WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT CERTAIN RADAR WILL BE CLEAR
FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE VARIETY IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RETURNING TO
AROUND 70 SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. FLATTENS AND
ALLOWS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM EXPECT TO SEE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW TO INTERACT WITH THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS.
ISOLATED SEVERE POP UP STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYS WITH
LARGE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR.
AIR AND SOIL MOISTURE WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING ANY WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 90S EVEN WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS SAID GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
SITUATION WELL AND GENERALLY STILL USED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREE
MARK... AND COULD APPROACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY ISSUANCE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HEAT ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY MONDAY. STAGNANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD SUPPLY A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. ANY WAVE COULD TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOWER 90S AT MOST SPOTS SUNDAY. THE HEAT INDEX COULD REACH
105 AT TIMES SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN NOT AS WARM OR HUMID WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
WARM FRONT SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER SOMEWHAT AND ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE IN/CLOSE TO TAF LOCATION.
MINIMAL IMPACT ON FLIGHTS AND HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAF ISSUANCE.
CONVECTION FORMS OVER IA/IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WITH FAST WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECT TO SEE THIS CONVECTION ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
12Z. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES TO TAF TO
INCLUDE -TS. EVEN WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD STILL DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE TAF. WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...LEWIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1020 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DOLORES MOVING UP FROM THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
CLEAR SKY AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY. THE FOCUS WILL BE ON
THE MOISTURE SURGE THIS WEEKEND AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE GENERAL TRENDS IN THE INHERITED FORECAST. WILL
BE DOING SOME FINE TUNING AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
245 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
TRYING TO SEEP IN ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BUT STRUGGLING TO MAKE
MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS. VAD WIND PROFILER FROM YUMA INDICATES THE
CURRENT MOISTURE SURGE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO WE WILL NEED TO WAIT AT
LEAST ANOTHER DAY BEFORE ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE IMPACTS
THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A DRY AND WARM ONE WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SIERRA WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS
OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK
OUT SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF BISHOP. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...SO I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER TO
THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FAR
NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY NEAR PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MONUMENT WHERE
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE
EVENING...BUT I BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA
AND I HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
ON FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE MUCH
ANTICIPATED GULF SURGE COURTESY OF HURRICANE DOLORES BEGINS TO CREEP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ENCROACHING 1.50 INCHES WILL BE
NUDGING INTO THE LAKE HAVASU AREA WITH OVER ONE INCH ALL THE WAY UP
TO LAKE MEAD. THIS WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT ALSO AS FAR WEST
AS LAKE MEAD...NEEDLES...AND LAKE HAVASU. I PULLED POPS A BIT
FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...SOME WESTERLY SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE SO SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AT WHICH POINT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE MOIST
FROM I-15 SOUTH AND EAST. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF RAIN
COULD HINDER INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT BUT THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR HAS ME CONCERNED ABOUT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY.
FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...GRAY AND GLOOMY DAY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WILL STILL BE IN PLAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PAC NW. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS IN THE HANDLING OF
A PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH IS LEFT BEHIND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AS TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE EAST.
ALSO...THE ECMWF STILL TAKES THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
DOLORES PHASING IT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURES SEPARATE DEPICTING A
TROUGH OVER NEVADA WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES WEST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF
DOLORES. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
BRING A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE CONFINING ANY MENTION OF STORMS
TO MOHAVE COUNTY AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. READINGS WILL WARM CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOWING
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST PARALLEL TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COULD NEXT WEEKEND BE SIMILAR TO
THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED!
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SUNNY AND DRY TODAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. A PERIOD OF VARIABILITY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENTS WILL EXIST BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z BEFORE A PUSH OF
STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERTAKES THE VALLEY OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA NEAR KBIH. SOUTH
WINDS OF 10-15KTS WIH GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED FRIDAY ONWARD....ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH A KDAG-KLAS-KSGU LINE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE CAM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE
CONSISTENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL LEAN ON THE GFS THEREAFTER WITH BETTER SHEAR AROUND FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE
SOUTH AND 500-1000J/KG NORTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
STEEP IN THE NORTH...AND A BIT BETTER SOUTH. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
PLENTY OF CLOUDS/PRECIP THAT HAS HINDERED WARMING WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS AROUND 80. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW WHERE AREAS HEAT OUT
SOME THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE BEST THREAT IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHEAR/INSTABILITY.
ON FRIDAY...A SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER AROUND 00Z...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK NEAR THE SOUTH FA AND
MARGINAL RISK TO THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE MORE HEATING ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH MORE SHEAR...SO POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDEPSREAD SEVERE CLOSE OR INTO THE FA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 45-50KT LLJ
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MN COUNTIES...SO SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
ON SATURDAY...MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTH AND EAST BY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY SAT AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. IT COULD GET A BIT
BREEZY FROM THE W/NW SAT AFTERNOON WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW 1
INCH.
FOR SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN SAT.
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
FOR SUN THROUGH THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH NRN MINNESOTA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVE GIVING A LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. MAINLY DRY AGAIN
TUESDAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS DUE WED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR T-STORMS AT THAT TIME. TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
LINGERING LOW END MVFR CIGS PRESENT FROM THIS MORNING
SHOULD BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON IN NW MN GIVING WAY TO A VFR MOSTLY
MID CLOUD DECK. AREA OF RAIN AND T-STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THRU
NCNTRL MN AFFECTING TVF/BJI TAF SITES THRU 20Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FOR THIS LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE IS QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SO KEPT VCTS IN MOST SITES EXCEPT DVL WHICH
SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT MID AFTN TO THE WEST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED...WITH THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ND...EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ND...AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL /H7-H5/ TROF. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOW ACROSS
ERN ND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE RRV AND
INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE FORENOON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
PATCHY SUNSHINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HEATING IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...AND WILL PROVIDE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF THERE AND FOCUS FOR
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 AND RAP13
BOTH SHOW UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE 0-2KM FROM 18-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN ND...WITH HIGH VALUES TRANSLATING INTO
WCNTRL MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HRRR AND NSSL
CAMS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DISTINCTLY STRONGER CELLS IN
THE SOUTHERN RRV /19-22Z/ ...CONSISTENT WITH SPC DY1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS
FROM EAST FLANK OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WIDEPSREAD WETTING RAINS AND THUNDER
ARE TO BE EXPECTED...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS THERE. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AGAIN
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA FROM DY2 INTO DY3.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS THE PATTERN BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT...WITH A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH. LOOK FOR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
LINGERING LOW END MVFR CIGS PRESENT FROM THIS MORNING
SHOULD BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON IN NW MN GIVING WAY TO A VFR MOSTLY
MID CLOUD DECK. AREA OF RAIN AND T-STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THRU
NCNTRL MN AFFECTING TVF/BJI TAF SITES THRU 20Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FOR THIS LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE IS QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SO KEPT VCTS IN MOST SITES EXCEPT DVL WHICH
SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT MID AFTN TO THE WEST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THIS AREA TO HAVE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY...THUS A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHILE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. GREATEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT
THEN WORKS EAST SO THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC TO THE TIME
LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS TO CONFINE POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
GENERALLY TO ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW QUICKLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA.
REFLECTIVITY AS OF 07 UTC WAS SHOWING PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW STORMS AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE SOUTH. MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHERN STORMS ARE TAPPING
INTO THE GREATER AMOUNTS OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE REGION ALONG
WITH A THIN BAND OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FLOWING NORTH ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE STORM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
IS PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WARRANTING A FLOOD
ADVISORY. WHILE A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT SEE ANY REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL LACKING IN
THE AREA AND EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXITING CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY THE NAM...ECMWF..AND GFS 00 UTC RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTA MINNESOTA BORDER BY 00 UTC FRIDAY. WHILE
THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 00 UTC FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
A TRANSITION TO A LESS ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON ONE MORE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS. ML CAPE
AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED. THEREAFTER....A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE
MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. INTO NEXT WEEK UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
LCL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE IMPROVING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING EAST BY EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE UPPER
FLOW BACKING THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN. THIS SHORTWAVE IN COMBO WITH A LLJ IS PRODUCING A
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE BACKING
FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO PUSHING A SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND
BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP TRENDS
TONIGHT AND MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE QUITE
AMBITIOUS CRANKING OUT RAINFALL OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
THE AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. THOUGH
MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET HEAVY RAINFALL
WITHOUT INSTABILITY OR STRONG FORCING...AND BOTH APPEAR TO BE
ABSENT. BUT WILL STILL GO WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 60-80% RANGE
THIS EVENING WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. AS THE RAIN
EXITS LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER
AND CREATE A WIDESPREAD OVERCAST DECK WITH SOME LOWER VSBYS IN MIST.
LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD AS A RESULT...AND WENT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL INCREASE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...THINK THE DAY WILL BE A DRY ONE
THOUGH WILL START OFF RATHER CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THEN CONDITIONS TURN WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
ZONAL FLOW WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT FOR MID SUMMER IS EXPECTED
MOST OF THE TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH EVERY TWO OR THREE DAYS.
THE FIRST ONE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID
AIR UP INTO WISCONSIN WITH MODELS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO WARM SO FAR THIS SEASON SO NOT SURE IF 90F IS
LIKELY OR NOT. IF IT DOES GET THAT WARM WITH 70F DEWPOINTS HEAT INDICES
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 100F. FORECAST CAPE OF 3000
J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRESENT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMES BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. LOOK FOR CIGS TO
LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THIS EVENING IN THE RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT UNTIL THE CLOUDS MIX OUT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC