Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/14/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEK...
WILL LIKELY SPREAD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MANY AREAS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN AZ HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OVER EASTERN AZ.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL HAS PROVEN THE MOST ACCURATE SO
FAR...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON FORECAST TO
SPREAD AND DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. THE HRRR DOES
RESPOND TO THIS CONVECTION BY FORECASTING A DISTINCT NORTHWESTWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...20 PERHAPS 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS...TO MOVE THROUGH CASA GRANDE AND COOLIDGE
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM...AND INTO THE PHOENIX EAST VALLEY BY 8 PM. AREAS
OF DUST ARE POSSIBLE. THE HRRR ONLY PRODUCES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING...WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY...INCLUDING PHOENIX.
AS A RESULT OF THIS EVENING PASSING OUTFLOWS...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE A
MUCH MORE HUMID DAY. IT MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MONDAY TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND LESS HUMID OVER OUR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA
AND SOUTWHEST AZ TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STILL RELATED TO THE POSITIONAL
WEST COAST TROF AND ITS INLAND MOVING DISTURBANCES...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE THREATS IN EASTERN AZ...GENERALLY EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS PERIOD.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS HURRICANE MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA. ALL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST
CURRENT TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...JUST OFF THE ACAPULCO COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TO MOVE NORTHWEST...STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND
HUG THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA WEST COAST 450 MILES OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD. IT NEVER MAKES LANDFALL...HOWEVER ITS MOISTURE AND
RELATED HIGH PRECIP WATER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...MAXING OUT OVER AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A FIRST
GUESS...MODELED UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ARE NOT IDEAL FOR BIG AND
WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT SAT AND SUN. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTHWEST AZ...SOUTHERN NV...AND SOUTHWEST
UT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
OVERALL WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...HOWEVER
THE DIRECTION HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND. EXPECTING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BEFORE
THAT...THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AZ ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 - 25 KTS TO IMPACT
KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 02Z AND 03Z. LIKELY SOME BLOWING DUST ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE OUTFLOWS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
FAIRLY QUIET AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO RETAIN A DIURNAL WEST-
SOUTHWEST HEADING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO
SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND SETS IN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY BE IN STORE
STARTING FRIDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND RISING HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL BE COMMONLY BREEZY
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MINOR COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY TO SOUTHERLY TODAY
AS EXPECTED. MAJOR FEATURES UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM HAVE FOCUSED A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH QUITE A LONG FETCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN A HEALTHY 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH HIGHER VALUES UPSTREAM IN SONORA. SOLID
DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...SOLAR INSOLATION...AND A
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADD UP TO BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. COULD WE FINALLY
GET AN AFTERNOON WITH ALL OR MOST OF TUCSON METRO IMPACTED? STORM
MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY SLOW A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY A CONCERN...ISOLATED SEVERE.
MINOR FIRST PERIOD FORECAST UPDATES BLENDING IN LATER MODEL DATA
WITH AN END RESULT OF INCREASING PRECIP PROBABILITIES 5 TO 10
PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/18Z. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35-45 KTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY GENERATE
BLDU/S REDUCING VSBYS TO 1SM NW OF KTUS BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/03Z.
CLOUD DECKS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT
6-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL
AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CHARACTERIZED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ARC OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO
NWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA...THEN NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE...
DARKENING FEATURE OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REPRESENTS A VORT MAX
THAT VARIOUS 12/00Z MODELS MOVE NWD ADJACENT THE ERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY.
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX
THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT...AND A FAVORABLE
GENERALLY SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THE CHANCES FOR WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF SHOWER/TSTMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY VERSUS
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR AROUND 16Z-
17Z TODAY EITHER NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE
COUNTY...OR FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS
ACROSS SWRN COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
THEN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE NWWD AND ENCROACH UPON THE TUCSON METRO
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT ANY RATE...POPS WERE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED MODESTLY FROM TUCSON
EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING.
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF
TUCSON BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST
TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON NWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS...PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED DATA
WEATHER FIELDS FROM 12/21Z TO 13/03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD.
A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF SHOWER-AND-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR MON-WED MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WEAK SWLY MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ TSTMS. AT
THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRI WILL HAVE SIMILAR
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS WEDNESDAY.
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS BY FRI
THOUGH APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY SAT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS FORECAST AREA FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
DOLORES. THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND FURTHER WWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS...AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE NEXT SAT. IF THERE IS CONTINUED
CONTINUITY AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS WILL LIKELY
BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT. AS AN ASIDE...SUN IS BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAS RESULTED IN
DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THRU THURSDAY...THEN SOME MINOR COOLING IS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENHANCED NWD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALIZED.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MINOR COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
CHARACTERIZED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ARC OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO
NWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA...THEN NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE...
DARKENING FEATURE OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REPRESENTS A VORT MAX
THAT VARIOUS 12/00Z MODELS MOVE NWD ADJACENT THE ERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY.
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX
THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT...AND A FAVORABLE
GENERALLY SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THE CHANCES FOR WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF SHOWER/TSTMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY VERSUS
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR AROUND 16Z-
17Z TODAY EITHER NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE
COUNTY...OR FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS
ACROSS SWRN COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
THEN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE NWWD AND ENCROACH UPON THE TUCSON METRO
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT ANY RATE...POPS WERE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED MODESTLY FROM TUCSON
EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING.
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF
TUCSON BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST
TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON NWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS...PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED DATA
WEATHER FIELDS FROM 12/21Z TO 13/03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD.
A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF SHOWER-AND-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR MON-WED MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WEAK SWLY MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRI WILL HAVE
SIMILAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS WEDNESDAY.
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS BY FRI
THOUGH APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY SAT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS FORECAST AREA FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
DOLORES. THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND FURTHER WWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS...AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE NEXT SAT. IF THERE IS CONTINUED
CONTINUITY AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS WILL LIKELY
BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT. AS AN ASIDE...SUN IS BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAS RESULTED IN
DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THRU THURSDAY...THEN SOME MINOR COOLING IS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENHANCED NWD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALIZED.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF KTUS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND
35-45 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY GENERATE BLDU/S REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1SM NW OF KTUS BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/03Z. CLOUD DECKS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 6-12K FT
AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
938 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE MODIFIED WEATHER FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST
OF NV 447. HRRR AND NAM ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN WE CURRENTLY SHOW...SO WILL
PULL THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT
AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SOON. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AT 25-30 MPH.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT AS THE GFS
INDICATES LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THE GFS SOUNDINGS WERE ALREADY TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AT 06Z (11 PM SATURDAY) SO I HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
THE NAM IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO WORK TOGETHER TO INITIATE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONES. WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE BEST CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF THE SIERRA TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND OUT IN
THE BASIN AND RANGE. EVEN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM IS RATHER ANEMIC
WITH PRECIPITATION SO CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAY
EVEN WIND UP REMAINING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
MONDAY, AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS EVEN MORE SPARSE AS UPPER FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL AND
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY ON TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
AREAS SUCH AS THE MONO-MINERAL-SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY AREA.
ELSEWHERE, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NO
MORE THAN SOME FLAT CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED CONVECTION-WISE.
TUESDAY, THE GFS, NAM AND THE SREF ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION-FREE
CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS MORE
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SNYDER
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS. A FEW BRIEF LATE
DAY TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ON
THURSDAY (THE WARMER DAY) BUT THIS POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS RATHER
SLIM SO WE HAVE NOT YET ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS BY THURSDAY
SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING TOWARD
DEVELOPING A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE
FARTHER EAST. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL INITIALLY BE INCREASING WINDS
AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS WAS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WEST CENTRAL NV, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PRODUCE CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME COOLING MAY REACH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY, BUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THURSDAY DUE TO FULL MIXING AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. COOLING TREND
CONTINUES THRU SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN, BUT AT THIS
TIME WE DID NOT ADD ANY PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST
GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
SAT NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MJD
AVIATION...
FOR TODAY, ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL NV NEAR THE
HWY 95 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MONO COUNTY BTWN 20-04Z, BUT THE MAIN
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. FOR MONDAY, THE THREAT
OF ISOLD LATE DAY TSTMS BECOMES REDUCED TO EASTERN MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES.
FOR BOTH DAYS, SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY
BTWN 22Z-04Z.
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KTRK EACH MORNING MAINLY BTWN
11-15Z, BUT OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NV
THIS EVENING AND THE 00Z NAM/GFS PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL
AND KEEP CONVECTION GOING A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HANGS ONTO IT TIL MORNING ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE
OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FLOW WAS BACKING SLIGHTLY WHICH
WAS ALLOWING STORMS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGINIA RANGE.
LIGHTNING WAS NOTED FROM THE NWS OFFICE TO THE SOUTH AS OF THIS
WRITING. MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING INCLUDE SPREADING THE ISOLATED
CONVECTION WESTWARD JUST A BIT BUT KEEPING IT EAST OF KRNO-KCXP.
WE ALSO KEPT SOME SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT UNTIL 09Z FOR THE BASIN
AND RANGE AND REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FAR NORTH. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS DOWN TO THE SIERRA CREST OF MONO COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR AND NAM ARE FAVORING SOME CHANCES OF A
THUNDERSTORM AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A 15% COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE, ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN PERSHING COUNTY. THEN, DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY ONWARD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVER-CONVECTING MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN MONO COUNTY, BUT MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM; KEPT
CHANCES AROUND 10%. THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ONLY
BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA BY MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. BOYD
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE
PATTERN IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TO START THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA
VALLEYS NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH ALPINE AND
MONO COUNTIES EACH DAY WITH MAINLY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT WILL
KEEP CHANCES BELOW 15% FOR THESE AREAS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP MENTION
OF STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY STILL IS
SIZABLE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC ATTEMPT A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA IN MORE OF A TROUGH PATTERN TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND IN THE GFS WHILE THE EC DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS IS
ALMOST THE REVERSE OF WHAT EACH MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE LAST FEW CYCLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ENSEMBLES SPREADS ARE
LARGE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. FUENTES
AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z MAINLY FOR AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF KNFL, BUT OVERALL AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS
WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. FOR SUNDAY, ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A FALLON-SUSANVILLE LINE BUT THE MAIN
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS
20- 25 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY BTWN 21Z-04Z. TF
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPDATED TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
...HOT DAY ON TAP...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EDGING WEST INTO CO
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. THIS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE...AND PROVIDE FOR JUST
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE.
EXPECT A VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT LACKS A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATELY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RIDING UP
ACROSS CO ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THIS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...AND ADDED
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT...GRIDS WILL CARRY GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. SFC DEW POINTS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY HIGH YET ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND CAPES AND SHEAR APPEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD POSE
A THREAT TO BURN SCARS.
BETTER RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY IN EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT KEEPS A TAP OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRACKING
OVER THE REGION. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
TUES AFTERNOON...WITH GFS LIFTING IT BACK NORTHWARD INTO NE CO TUES
AFTN...WHILE NAM12 AND ECMWF KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER. SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM RUNS FOR NOW. WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING BACK INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CAPE VALUES TO 1500 TO PERHAPS CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. 0-6 KM SHEARS LOOK ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS
ACROSS EC OR SE CO TUESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...NAM12 AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE DETAILS VS THE DRIER GFS SOLN...WHICH WAS
DISCOUNTED.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SENDS A SHORTWAVE TROF RIDING UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND SERVES TO SEND
SOME DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN CO WED AFTN. THIS DROPS BACK SFC DEW
POINTS AGAIN...WHICH DIMINISHES CAPE AND REDUCES POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DRY OUT THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS COMPARED TO ECMWF. WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD...BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR BURN SCARS
THIS DAY AS THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
AIRMASS DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT RESURGENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME APPEARS TO STAY MAINLY
WEST OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING POPS AGAIN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT SUNDAY. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS
EVENING...BOTH KALS AND KPUB MAY SEE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE VCNTY.
MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WL MOVE THRU THE SERN CO PLAINS AND WL
BRING SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AN UPR HIGH CENTER IS OVR ERN TX TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD OVR TX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MSTR OVR THE
AREA TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVR AND
NR THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TIED TO THE HIGHER TRRN...
INCLUDING THE PALMER DVD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE OUT OVR THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND OVR BACA AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE MSTR WL STILL BE LIMITED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
MONDAY...DURING THE DAY THE NORTHWEST US TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EDGE EAST...AND MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE HAVE LOW END SCATTERED TO ISOLATED POPS GOING AND THAT
SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE CWA...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S
PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S TO 70S MOUNTAINS.
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED SOUTH SOME...AND
THE MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SUBTROPICS WILL STILL BE OVER THE CWA.
SO...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO MONDAYS READINGS.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH BUT IT SHOULD BE CENTERED FAR TO OUR NORTH. STILL...ANOTHER
SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME FORCING ALOFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
SOME TO THE WEST...AND THE ROCKIES WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW AND A
LITTLE MORE SETTLED WEATHER. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY.
OF COURSE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
IMPACT BURN SCARS...SO THAT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
803 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS WANED BUT WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
COASTAL LOCALES. SW FLOW COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWER OR TSTORMS TO
MOVE IN ALONG THE GULF COAST...SHOULD NIGHTTIME STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, SOME CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED ACTIVITY
GOING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT...BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ATLANTIC COAST AS HRRR IS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.
ANY RAIN IS BENEFICIAL FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HOWEVER, WITH THE
RAIN COMES THE TYPICAL LIGHTNING WITH OUR SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...AND THIS LIKELY SPARKED A WILDFIRE JUST NORTH OF 8TH
ST AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES
COULD BE SPARKED BY LIGHTNING IN THE COMING DAYS WITH THE
INCREASED TSTORM ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/
..THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING INTERIOR-EAST COAST METRO THIS WEEK,
PROVIDING FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS TO DROUGHT-STICKEN SOUTHEAST FL...
DISCUSSION...
THUNDER RUMBLING OUTSIDE NWS MIAMI IS A SIGN OF CHANGING TIMES
WITH FINALLY A WIND FLOW REGIME ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. RIDGING WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BEING THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE HAVING
INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FAVORING MAX CONVERGENCE ON
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. IT WILL BE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE REGIME DOMINATING EACH DAY.
ONE NOTABLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY IS THAT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BOTH TRENDED HIGHER WITH REGARDS TO ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE INCREASE
ALREADY OCCURRING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW UP TO AROUND
1.6 INCHES. THE UPWARD MOISTURE TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HR WITH PWATS APPROACHING OUR MEDIAN FOR MID
JULY...AROUND 1.8 INCHES. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES. THIS WOULD SPELL A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WHICH LIES IN A SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT.
WPC QPF FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOWS AREAL AVERAGE OF 1-1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND 0.75-1.0 INCH OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THINKING IF MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS CONTINUE,
THESE NUMBERS COULD GO HIGHER. CERTAINLY ISOLATED DAILY TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...IN SOUTH FL TYPICAL RAINY SEASON
STYLE. MUCH NEEDED RAINS INDEED!
OF COURSE WITH THE RAINS COMES THE INCREASING LIGHTNING RISK.
THREE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA THIS YEAR.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OVER 10 MILES FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORM. WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE LIGHTNING RISK ON
SOCIAL MEDIA AND OUR PRODUCTS SINCE IT HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY
TSTORM-FREE ACROSS THE POPULATED EAST COAST METRO FOR SOME TIME.
/GREGORIA
MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LEADING TO A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...SO MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SCATTERED TSTORMS MOVE INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 93 75 93 / 20 50 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 76 91 / 20 40 50 50
MIAMI 78 91 76 91 / 20 50 40 50
NAPLES 77 90 77 90 / 20 30 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IN NW GA
NEAR REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS THAT MOVED THRU ERN KY AND ERN TN
THIS MORNING. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK
WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS
ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE
FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE
EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME
GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS
CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM.
CORRECTED...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA
AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TO ATL
METRO TAFS FROM 20-23Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
NOT BEEN AS HELPFUL TODAY. SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION
TONIGHT THEN BACK TO WEST COMPONENT 4 TO 8KTS MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 94 73 94 74 / 30 20 30 20
ATLANTA 94 76 91 76 / 40 20 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 50 30 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 93 71 92 73 / 50 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 98 76 94 76 / 20 10 30 20
GAINESVILLE 92 74 91 74 / 40 30 30 20
MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 10 30 20
ROME 93 72 93 74 / 50 20 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 94 73 92 74 / 30 10 30 20
VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 10 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
EVEN THE HI-RE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK
WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS
ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE
FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE
EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME
GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS
CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM.
CORRECTED...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA
AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH FROM THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL NOT UPGRADE THE PROB GROUP TO A TEMPO AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
5KT OR BELOW. THE DIRECTION MAY SWITCH TO THE NE FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAWN...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE WEST DURING MIXING MONDAY
MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40
ATLANTA 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 40 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 92 71 92 73 / 30 20 30 30
COLUMBUS 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20
GAINESVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 30
MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 20
ROME 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 92 74 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
EVEN THE HI-RE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK
WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS
ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE
FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE
EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME
GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS
CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM.
CORRECTED...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA
AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS ARE
PROGGING WINDS AOB 5KT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH A NE DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO BACK WEST BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH THE BEST TIME FOR STORMS AFTER 20Z. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40
ATLANTA 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 40 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 92 71 92 73 / 30 20 30 30
COLUMBUS 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20
GAINESVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 30
MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 20
ROME 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 92 74 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS
BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OF THE REGION, WHERE THE WARM FRONT
HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR AT LEAST
A LITTLE LONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, ALTHOUGH A
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE NOTED AS INSTABILITY WANES AND AS A SHORT
WAVE THAT HELPED TO DRIVE THE STORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY
02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH
THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE
ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD
TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE
RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH
TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED
INTO THU ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST-CENTRAL IL TO SOUTHEAST
IL...WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES AS OF 05Z.
SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE KSPI MAY BE
AFFECTED NEXT FEW HOURS BY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY KPIA-
KBMI-KCMI. THIS FOG WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VSBY THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES
FROM NW. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS
STARTING 00Z FOR POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS BUT
STRONG...GUSTY...VARIABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
342 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS ROUGHLY WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS
FIELD...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED JUST UPSTREAM FROM THIS
BOUNDARY. CLOSEST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS STILL IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT SHORT WAVE TROF IS APPROACHING SOUTH DAKOTA
MINNESOTA LINE AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS KEEP MAIN MCS EAST OF
THIS FORECAST AREA BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING A POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE ADVANCING
CONVECTION. IF THESE FORM IT WILL QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. MAIN MCS SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA BY 12 UTC AND FRONT DOESNT REALLY MOVE MUCH BY THEN.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WERE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LEANED
TOWARD A NAM12/ECMWF BLEND FOR TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH DEW
POINTS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE STATE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT...BUT ENOUGH THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT POPS
GOING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLD IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE. SOME MIXING LOOKS TO PUSH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH
TUESDAY...BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY NOT CONCERNED WITH EXTREME HEAT
INDEX VALUES.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE AND BEST CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EXTENDED IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TO PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS AS HIGH AS 4000 METERS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TRENDED DRIER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF TIMING AND LOCATION
OF WHEN AND IF ANY SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WENT WITH LESSER POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. PLUS WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...TRENDED WARMER FOR HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THINKING LESS CLOUD COVER AND MODELS AT LEAST
HINTING ON STRONGER WAA.
&&
.AVIATION...12/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
LINGERING STRATUS AFFECTING KMCW AND KALO WILL DISSIPATE TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HOUR. LATER IN THE PERIOD INTRODUCED MENTION
OF VCTS TO KALO KMCW AND KOTM WITH MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-
WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HARDING
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...HARDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTERED OVER WEST
TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER MOISTURE PLUME HAD WORKED ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS WITH A FEW CUMULUS
RECENTLY NOTED IN HYS/HLC VICINITY NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN LESS IMPRESSIVE
MIXING, AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INHIBITION TO CONVECTION IS LOW THOUGH SO IS
FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS DECENT AND COULD KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO STORMS THAT FORM TO THE WEST. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS
SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE CUMULUS, THOUGH AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY,
ALREADY HAS STORMS BY THIS POINT AND IT HAS BEEN OVERZEALOUS ON
PRECIP IN RECENT DAYS. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A SMALL POP IN THE FAR
WEST AROUND 0Z.
NORTHERN UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST MONDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VARIOUS IDEAS ON LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS, AND MIXING AGAIN IS NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE, LIKELY KEEPING DEWPOINTS RATHER HIGH. HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A BIT BUT THIS STILL SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIMITED CIN AND, LIKE TODAY, LIMITED FORCING. WITH A MORE DEFINED
BOUNDARY, WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT, WITH AGAIN SOME DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTING MAINLY DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS. HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN, WITH APPARENT TEMPS AROUND 110 LIKELY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. AGAIN EXACT VALUES HARD TO NAIL DOWN
AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN WARNING AREAS COULD BE NEEDED LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MODELS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
+13C PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN
GENERAL THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PERIOD WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
ARE OBVIOUS. THE FORECAST HAS SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE IN THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN KS AND
CENTRAL NEB ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
GOING. THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT
LIFT OR FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO
EASTERN KS FOR SUNDAY SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE CENTER OF THE THERMAL RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITHIN THE
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE EXTENDED SO TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN HOT WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT MAY NOT BE HAS
EXTREME AS WE ARE EXPECTING TOMORROW, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 100 FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH 0Z
BUT SUCH SPEEDS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION. WILL GO AHEAD WITH WIND
SHEAR INCLUSION WITH GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN STRONGER SW WINDS
DEVELOPING NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ012-
024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ012-024-026-038>040-
054>056-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ008>011-020>023-
034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...65
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
ARLATX REGION. MEANWHILE THERE WERE SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE WEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE WAVES MOVING ON SHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK VORT
MAX OVER THE TX PANHANDLE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE,
A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR PHILLIPSBURG KS TO NORTH OF
HEBRON AND INTO NORTHERN MO.
FOR THIS EVENING, THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. THERE CERTAINLY IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FOR STORMS TO FORM, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS COULD
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE UPDRAFTS. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
SOLUTION SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE ALONE MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING. THERE REMAINS SOME WILDCARDS THOUGH. THE
HRRR ALSO WANTS TO DEVELOP AN MCS AND BRING IT INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL
KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH STORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PLAUSIBLE. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW SOME
LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES, HOWEVER THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF SATURATED AIR BEING LIFTED. SO I DON`T HAVE A GOOD
FEELING FOR WHETHER STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND I THINK THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONE
TO CAUSE SOME ELEVATED STORMS. IN THE END HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON OR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
WARM AIR NORTH.
FOR SUNDAY, MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WHILE 700
MB TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE DAY. SO UNLESS SOMETHING UNEXPECTED
HAPPENS, LIKE AN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KS IN THE MORNING, THINK
THE STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOW
LIMITED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KS WHILE NORTH
CENTRAL KS COULD MIX TO NEAR 800MB. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS SOME DRY
AIR MOVING IN AT 850 WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 15C. SO ACROSS
EASTERN KS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BUT
WITH LESS MIXING SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD APPROACH 100 WITH DEEPER MIXING, BUT
SHOULD MIX SOME OF THE DRYER AIR TO THE SURFACE. IN THE END, HEAT
INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 105 SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM GETTING TOO FAR ABOVE 100, BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING. HEAT INDICES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL INTO ADVISORY AND PERHAPS
WARNING LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS IS USUAL AT
THIS RANGE, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND JUST HOW MUCH THE POOLED MOISTURE CAN MIX OUT BEING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT ON APPARENT TEMPS. THIS ALSO LEADS TO INSTABILITY/CAP VALUES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DESPITE WEAK CONVERGENCE. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER
FLOW LEADS TO MODERATE SHEAR AND COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION FOR NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH WIND POTENTIAL. HAVE
TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE QUICKER FRONT TIMING WITH MORE MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH STILL
MODEST RELIEF TO THE HEAT, ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY EXTENSION TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY IN CHECK.
THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN A SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE AND ENTERING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY,
WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT FOR DECENT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES L0CALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT COOLER WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE,
WITH RIDGE REGAINING SOME STRENGTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND IN THE LATE
WEEK. DEWPOINTS AT TO ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK COULD EASILY BRING
ABOUT MORE HEAT HEADLINE POTENTIAL BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY
KICKED IN ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING AND TODAY.
MOST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE SLIGHT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...BENDING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE EASTERN
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OBSERVED SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 1PM CDT SPRAWLED OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEND OUTFLOWS AND SOME UPSHEAR LIFT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
CLOSE TO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS FOR PARTS
OF PIKE...WARRICK AND SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IN
COLLABORATION WITH NWS INDIANAPOLIS...DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE IN SPACE AND TIME. IT
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...ADDED A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
GRIDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VERY
ROBUST CAPE FOR UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR
INITIATION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE INVERSION IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND POSSIBLY A MICROBURST OR TWO) WITH THIS
REGIME IN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SUNDAY. THE ONLY
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE ANY DELAY IN REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SURFACE OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LEFT
OVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL EXPAND WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE/SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS DEFINITELY CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE 3KM HRRR FOR THE EXTREMELY SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...BLENDING TOWARD THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE IN THE
LONGER TIME PERIODS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS AND WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF REGARDING ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE AREA...DRIVEN BY
A MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MED RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
TUE. PCPN CHANCES (HIGHEST IN THE SERN QUADRANT) ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FORCING WILL WANE TUE NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW GOES
SLIGHTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC...LEAVING WED DRY. BY MIDDAY THU...A
SECOND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR WEST
(PARTS OF SERN MO) CLOSER TO A DOMINANT SRN CONUS RIDGE. SOME
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MINOR ENERGY IMPULSE
IN THE WESTERLIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS EVENT SHOULD END
THU NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND THE ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE
MARK IN SERN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN 09-13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KEVV/KOWB TSRA
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z AOB 6 KNOTS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1153 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 IN MANY SPOTS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY. WARM...HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A FEW DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1150 AM...CU ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
CONTINUED HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THROUGH SW
MAINE...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
EAST THROUGH THE MID-COAST. UPDATED GRIDS FOR MOST RECENT OBS AND
TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHC AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTM.
840 AM...CURRENT SATL PIC AND RADAR SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK
CONVECTION ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE AS BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THAT AREA
TODAY. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS AND HAVE RAISED
MORNING HOURLY TEMPS AT BIT WHICH SHOULD RISE QUICKLY-- ALTHOUGH
HAVEN`T CHANGED MAXES FOR DAY.
640 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST 10Z MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS.
PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...A WARM OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PRECEDE THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH WITH MANY
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWST MAINE FLIRTING
WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH
WITH DRIER LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE ZONES...WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RELEGATED TO A
HUMID AIRMASS. R OR TSTM IN SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASING MAKING FOR A STICK NIGHT.
OVERALL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S SOUTH TO 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND LAKES REGION NORTHWARD TO VICINITY OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AN ONSHORE WIND WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND COULD
FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN AS HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN FEATURES A DECENT TROUGH ROTATING EWD AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WED BUT WILL ALSO BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DEFINITELY
LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BENEATH MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WILL SEE FLOW BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE
ONSHORE AS TROUGH APPROACHES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHRA BUT
MORE LIKELY WILL SE STRATUS/FOG AND EVEN SOME DZ MOVE ONSHORE MON
NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUE MORNING. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MID-UPPER
FLOW SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SW...AND THE THREAT FOR TSRA WILL
INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA...DESPITE THE PAUCITY OF
QPF IN THE 00Z EURO. HIGHS TUE WILL REACH 80-85 INLAND...BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE STUCK IN THE 70S COASTAL AREAS....AND DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA COULD GET BACK INTO THE 80S ON WED.
THE LESS HUMID AIR MOVES IN FOR THU AND FRI...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. GFS WANT TO BRING
PRECIP IN BY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE EURO IS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NIGHT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT LOCAL IFR VCNTY OF KLEB AND KHIE IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. WIDELY SCT MVFR TODAY AND MONDAY IN
-SHRA AND -TSRA.
LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO COASTAL
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AT LEAST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE NIGHT INTO WED COULD BRING SHORT
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR....WITH VFR WED NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BLO SCA LVLS MON NIGHT THRU
THU. SOME SWELL FORM OFFSHORE SYSTEM COULD PUSH SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
605 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
605 AM UPDATE...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITED MAINE WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR AND ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES...BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANY SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE SOME LIFT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL SETTLE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WITH A GUSTY
WIND. DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
SLOWER TO FALL ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND COULD COME CLOSE TO 90F
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. MUCH COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE TONIGHT
AS A SFC HIGH BUILD OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS LOWS
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE MID
50S IN THE BANGOR AREA UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, WARM
FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY AND MUGGY NIGHT; MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH JUST A BIT COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL EVENING. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY; SB CAPES WILL RUN 200-600 J/KG, ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE OWING TO STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
NORTHERN MAINE WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, TAKING THE FRONT AND THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS RIDGE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED, WHICH RESULTED IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND FOR SATURDAY. DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS EITHER, WHICH GAVE HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH/80S
SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY SHALLOW
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KPQI AND KHUL TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTED THAT
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY IN FOG.
BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR IN FOG TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE; MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RESUMES MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89
DEGREES AT BANGOR TODAY. IF THE TEMPERATURE WERE TO HIT 90 DEGREES
IT WOULD BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY AT BANGOR SINCE JULY 19, 2013.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
UPPER AND SFC TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SE
TONIGHT AND TUE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND ARE NOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO MORE NRN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
IN. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER SRN UPPER MI...DEPENDING
ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO AROUND
1000J/KG OF CAPE AROUND AROUND 20KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. USED A BLEND OF HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE FOG WILL BE PUSHED ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING IN UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO BE DONE BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DID LAG CLOUDS BACK FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLEARING IS OFTEN SLOWER
THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID
70S...WARMEST SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE U.P. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN A FEW
DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE DEPARTING BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO LEAD TO ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA (TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL). WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...ALTHOUGH THEY
ARE VARYING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL TRY TO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER TIMING...MAINLY IN THE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD...WITH THE WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS
ARE INCONSISTENT ON THE SUBTLE FEATURES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT
5 DAYS OUT). OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM/HUMID ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE MODELS ARE GIVING A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR WAVE EJECTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND POTENTIALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WL BE VFR AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
3 SITES...VEERING WINDS TOWARD THE N THRU THIS EVNG OFF LK SUP WL
ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND
THEN IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -RA OR -DZ
CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR
FM ONTARIO ON TUE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY
THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE TO A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
AND MONTANA. A BROAD 1000MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED BELOW THIS UPPER
LOW AND A TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY. TO THE EAST OF THOSE FEATURES AND OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND DEPARTING
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH CONTINUES
TO LEAD TO THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.P....WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING
HAS PRODUCED A CU FIELD OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...WHILE THE LAKE
BREEZE OVER THE EAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN (KISQ ONLY 72 AT 3PM) HAS
STABILIZED THAT AREA AND KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY SUNNY. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH
IS NOW PUSHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THEM TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH EAST
INTO THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER
FORCING. EXPECT THAT TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS IN WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE SEEN A DOWNWARD TREND ON RADAR AND LIGHTNING OVER
THE LAST 15-30MIN. HAVE SEEN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL THEY
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL AND VERY ISOLATED. EXPECT THAT ISOLATED
POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE...INHIBITED BY THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME CAPPING NEAR 725MB. IF
SOMETHING COULD GET GOING WOULD LARGELY EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
THE FORECAST THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING
(ALREADY STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND EAST OF FARGO ALONG
THE WARM FRONT) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THEY WILL BE DISCRETE STORMS
INITIALLY...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THEM TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO AN
MCS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT
LOCATION AND STORM MOTION WOULD MOVE THE STORMS TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND THEN DIVE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY NEAR WESTERN WISCONSIN DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST
POINTING FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE LOCATION OF THE
MUCAPE GRADIENT. WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA...STILL THINK THE AREA WILL SEE THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
COMPLEX...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER OUT WEST). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH THEM
AS THE MAIN COMPLEX SLIDES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL ADD A MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS
BRUSHING THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW BEHIND THE MCS
THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE STILL WILL BE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION (ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH). WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS...LIKELY TIED TO THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS. THE
POPS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED TONIGHT ONCE THE MCS HAS SHOWN ITS
LOCATION/MOVEMENT...AS IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY...MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET TO 750J/KG
(EXCEPT OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...SO THINK THE THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL KEEP THE CHANCE THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
NAM SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN WENT DRY FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST 12Z THU. THERE IS
ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU THAT MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME WARMER
AIR TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SFC FRONTS WILL
BE IN THE AREA WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
HAVING SOME POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED SEEMS WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE
THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY
KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.
HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
A WEAKENING RIDGE COMBINED WITH AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL KEEP WINDS
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT SPEEDS WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 20KTS. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS WARM...MOIST
AIR IS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS MORNING THE FOG WAS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE...BUT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS EDGED THAT FOG A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. SEVERAL SHIP OBS TODAY INDICATED THE
FOG WAS DENSE AT TIMES...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST AIR...ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG POTENTIAL TO
DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN
MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER
MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH
CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR
80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER
THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE
GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.
SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
NAM SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN WENT DRY FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST 12Z THU. THERE IS
ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU THAT MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME WARMER
AIR TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SFC FRONTS WILL
BE IN THE AREA WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
HAVING SOME POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED SEEMS WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE
THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY
KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.
HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL
EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN
MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER
MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH
CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR
80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER
THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE
GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.
SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO
SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB
SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC
LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN
AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO
OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K
J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER
VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT
500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST
E AT AROUND 0.25IN/.
BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE
THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY
KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.
HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL
EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
115 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT VERY
SLOWLY CREEPS NE THRU PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TVC OB RECENTLY AND THE FKS OB EARLIER
THIS MORNING...HAVE SEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. SUSPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE
GROUND WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" RETURNS (IF YOU CAN CALL THEM THAT).
OVERALL...CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL FITTING THE BILL FOR
THIS AREA OF DIMINISHING PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BOOSTS CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG
AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT/
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE
FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF
1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS
MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR
THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS
THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW
STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES
UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN
FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED.
THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER
(REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE.
BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...
SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND.
PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN
STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT.
BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS
ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40
DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST
FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS
SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING
FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS.
TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E
AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF
THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION
IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT
SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD
DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO
GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO
KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION
WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE.
(7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV
THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS
PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC
DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY
BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
(7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS
PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK
THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC
TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY
TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY FOR TVC AND MBL AS THE NW EDGE OF A
POTENT SHORT WAVE CLIPS THAT AREA. STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE DAY. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE S/SE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY
MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH
CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT
IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT VERY
SLOWLY CREEPS NE THRU PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TVC OB RECENTLY AND THE FKS OB EARLIER
THIS MORNING...HAVE SEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. SUSPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE
GROUND WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" RETURNS (IF YOU CAN CALL THEM THAT).
OVERALL...CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL FITTING THE BILL FOR
THIS AREA OF DIMINISHING PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BOOSTS CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG
AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT/
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE
FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF
1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS
MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR
THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS
THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW
STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES
UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN
FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED.
THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER
(REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE.
BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...
SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND.
PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN
STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT.
BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS
ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40
DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST
FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS
SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING
FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS.
TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E
AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF
THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION
IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT
SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD
DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO
GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO
KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION
WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE.
(7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV
THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS
PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC
DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY
BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
(7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS
PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK
THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC
TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY
TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE REGION.
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TVC TERMINAL SITE
THROUGH 15Z WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. TONIGHT...LARGELY VFR PERSISTS
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS...LIGHT AND FLOPPY THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TO LAKE BREEZES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.
WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY
MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH
CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT
IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
803 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN
MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER
MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH
CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR
80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER
THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE
GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.
SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO
SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB
SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC
LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN
AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO
OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K
J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER
VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT
500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST
E AT AROUND 0.25IN/.
BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE RETURN OF
THE MOISTER AIR AND DAYTIME HEATING WILLCAUSE SOME SHRA AND TS TO
DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF SITES AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MRNG AT
IWD. SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON PINPOINTING
WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN
IFR BRIEFLY UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHRA OR TSRA...THE VFR WX
SHOULD PREDOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL
EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE
FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF
1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS
MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR
THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS
THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW
STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES
UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN
FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED.
THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER
(REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE.
BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...
SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND.
PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN
STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT.
BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS
ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40
DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST
FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS
SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING
FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS.
TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E
AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF
THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION
IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT
SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD
DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO
GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO
KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION
WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE.
(7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV
THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS
PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC
DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY
BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
(7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS
PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK
THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC
TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY
TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE REGION.
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TVC TERMINAL SITE
THROUGH 15Z WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. TONIGHT...LARGELY VFR PERSISTS
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS...LIGHT AND FLOPPY THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TO LAKE BREEZES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.
WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY
MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH
CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT
IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN
MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER
MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH
CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR
80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER
THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE
GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.
SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO
SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB
SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC
LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN
AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO
OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K
J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER
VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT
500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST
E AT AROUND 0.25IN/.
BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH THE RETURN OF MORE HUMID LLVL AIR OVER MAINLY WRN UPR MI IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MRNG AT IWD AND CMX. BUT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THE REST
OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE RETURN OF THE MOISTER AIR AND DAYTIME
HEATING WL ALSO CAUSE SOME SHRA AND TS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF
SITES AS EARLY AS MID MRNG AT IWD. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LO ON
PINPOINTING WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHRA WL OCCUR TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN
IFR BRIEFLY UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHRA...THE VFR WX SHOULD
PREDOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL
EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL DRY OUT BY MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
I HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
I EXPUNGED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE I-94 AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS JUST NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. IT SEEMS CLEAR TO ME BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN THE IR
IMAGE LOOPS...RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS...AND RECENT RAP MODEL DATA THE
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MOST WE
WOULD SEE HERE IS SHOWERS FROM A MID CLOUD DECK AND THAT WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...NEARLY ALL OF THAT
WOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. MOSTLY WE WILL BE SEEING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THE STEADIEST
RAINS AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FIRST SHORT WAVE
COMES THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO MOST OF THE
STORMS SHOULD HUG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH INTO SW MI MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE WAVE SLOWLY EXITING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...
EXPECT WE WILL SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF PCPN COVERAGE AS WE GET INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER STILL CAN/T RULE A FEW
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG WITH SOME
SUNSHINE WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS MORE POTENT THEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW BRINGS THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND WE SHOULD THEREFORE
GET WITHIN THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE STORM PATH.
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS STILL
LOOK MARGINAL AS THE JET DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG. SO AT THIS
POINT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED ON MONDAY...AND
MINIMAL CHANCES OTHERWISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE LESS FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS. THE MAIN RISK APPEARS TO EAST OF HWY 131
WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. A LAKE SHADOW MAY KEEP
AREAS WEST OF HWY 131 DRY ON TUESDAY.
A GOOD CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A SFC HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY DELIVERS A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRY TREND MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BRINGING BACK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR THAN THE ECMWF.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS H8 TEMPS ABOVE 20C
ARRIVING NEXT SATURDAY WHICH MAY SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
LIMITED IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT THERE
SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT WITH CIGS AROUND 10-12K FT.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME MVFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CHICAGO TO
MADISON WI CORRIDOR AT 06Z WILL IMPACT THE KAZO AND KBTL TERMINALS
AFTER 12Z AND LASTING UNTIL 16-18Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SOME VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL
ALSO KICK IN AT KMKG THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING THEN ONCE THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS DONE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
OTHER THEN THE RISK OF STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING...THE LAKE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE
SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THEN...THE
SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES OF RAIN STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL
TOTALS LOCALLY...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. STREAMFLOW REMAINS
HIGH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SE ND. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SW MN. THE LAST
REMNANTS OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD AND SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL MN N OF THE WARM FRONT AND A COUPLE
COUNTIES W OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ALLOWING
FOR SOME WARMING AND AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
EXPECT SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT AND PERCOLATE IN
THE VCNTY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 06Z. LATEST HRRR IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. SOME STORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS AFTER 08Z
THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. EVEN
THOUGH SOME NICE RAIN WAS NOTED DURING THE DAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
SOME AREAS WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE STORMS IN THE MORNING BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT BEGINS BY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
AND N OF THE LOW TRACK WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKELY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOST DAYS THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY COOL DOWN
TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS MID-WEEK...RETURNING TO THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500MB RIDGE/UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT
AND CAUSE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
RIDGE. ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON LATE TUESDAY. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LOW
LEVELS AND THUS COOLER TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF THE ORIGIN OF THIS
AIR /CANADA/ AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF IT IS MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE REACHING LAND WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
/LOWER DEW POINT/ AIR. HOWEVER...WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
RESULTING IN RISING TEMPS AND DEW POINT VALUES.
LATE IN THE WEEK WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH THE
EXACT DETAILS OF EACH DAY ARE STILL TOUGH TO PIN DOWN.
REGARDLESS...OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY. LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING
MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH A 120KT OR SO JET AT 250MB. THESE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A BETTER ENVIRONMENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. WILL
DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE
HAVE HAD STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MORNING CONVECTION ENDED UP BEING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
TO HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT A FEW SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND FAST MOVING...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. FOLLOWING THESE
STORMS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...WITH IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 64 80 64 71 / 60 40 30 40
INL 61 83 62 78 / 70 40 30 40
BRD 63 85 64 82 / 50 50 40 50
HYR 64 82 63 76 / 60 50 30 30
ASX 61 80 60 69 / 60 40 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTION STARTING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHLAND. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ZONES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND STATIONS ARE STARTING TO REPORT
VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONSAS DEW POINTS ARE CREEPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND.
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER
06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION
MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY
HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND
WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF
THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY
PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE
AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS THE PERIOD
WEARS ON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD
TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
QUITE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE KBRD
AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NE MINNESOTA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SOME FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 79 62 72 / 70 50 40 30
INL 64 83 62 77 / 40 50 40 20
BRD 65 87 65 80 / 70 40 40 40
HYR 66 82 61 75 / 60 50 50 20
ASX 63 80 58 71 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND.
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER
06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION
MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY
HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND
WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF
THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY
PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE
AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS THE PERIOD
WEARS ON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD
TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
QUITE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE KBRD
AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NE MINNESOTA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SOME FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 79 62 72 / 70 50 40 30
INL 64 83 62 77 / 40 50 40 20
BRD 65 87 65 80 / 70 40 40 40
HYR 66 82 61 75 / 60 50 50 20
ASX 63 80 58 71 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
515 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
JUST A SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MO.
COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM IN THIS
AREA, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA WITH CURRENT HEAT INDICES AROUND 102-103
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A WARM MUGGY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH IL LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION AS WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, CAPPING SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE GFS MODEL LOOKS
TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS QPF TONIGHT, WHILE THE NAM MODEL MAY BE TOO
FAR EAST WITH ITS QFF. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST INCLUDE
CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IL, NORTH AND EAST OF STL. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION SHOULD IN THE WEAKENING STAGES AS IT DROPS SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
IT MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT ITS DOMINANCE OVER OUR
REGION WILL WAX AND WANE AT TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DOMINANCE OF THIS UPPER HIGH FADING LATE
MONDAY...AND ROUGHLY CORRESPONDING WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER HIGH`S INFLUENCE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO EXPAND HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND AND THIS
ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHING BACK THRU ON
THURSDAY.
WHEN THE FRONT IS TO OUR NORTH...NAMELY THRU MONDAY AND AGAIN
HEADING INTO LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...DANGEROUS LEVELS OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE A REAL CONCERN AND FOR THE ONGOING
SITUATION...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND WILL COVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY. THIS HANDLES WELL THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. THE POTENTIAL HEAT AND
HUMIDITY EVENT FOR LATE WEEK IS TOO FAR OUT TO DEAL WITH HEADLINES
AT THE MOMENT BUT MERITS A CLOSE WATCH.
DESPITE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
FRONT SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH THRU WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN ON TEMPS BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH OF ONE TO PLACE A
HOLD ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE TEMPS IS LOWER
THAN MONDAY DUE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PCPN
CHANCES FOR SOME AREAS. THE ANTICIPATED DROP IN HUMIDITY FROM
MONDAY WILL MAKE ANY TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF A HEAT ADVISORY ENOUGH IN
DOUBT TO NOT TOUCH HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
PCPN CHANCES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOME SECTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST IL...WHICH WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF WHAT SHOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND SOME AREAS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WHAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD INITIALLY BE
WELL CAPPED BUT THIS CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH ON APPROACH OF THE FRONT
WHERE IT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RIDING BACK NORTH THRU OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS THE SHORT
WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION. FOR OVERNIGHT, HRRR
AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THUDERSTORMS COMPLEX FORMING OVER
UPPER MIDWEST AND DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. WILL THROW OUT THE
OVERLY WET GFS. UIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE, ALBEIT A LOW ONE, SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS GOING. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HRRR AND NAM APPEAR TO BE THE BEST MODELS
WITH THE PRECIPITAION PATTERN, AND THEY KEEP THE RAIN EAST OF STL.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS
CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW-
MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD
ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S
WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON
TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE
VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY
WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A
BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA
INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST
FRINGES OF OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF
+12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION.
I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF
THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS
SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN
CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY
GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL
COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE
COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST
COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A
REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT
THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAKENING MCS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT
UIN, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. SWLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOUD REMAIN SOUTH OF STL IN
THE OZARKS. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL TONIGHT, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST
OF STL. JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE QUITE CAPPED WITH CONVECTION EAST OF STL.
SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...UP
TO 11-13 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS
CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW-
MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD
ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S
WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON
TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE
VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY
WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A
BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA
INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST
FRINGES OR OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF
+12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDENSDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION.
I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF
THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS
SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN
CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY
GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL
COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE
COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST
COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A
REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT
THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
BROWNING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES
MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-
ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW-
MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD
ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S
WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON
TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE
VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY
WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A
BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA
INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST
FRINGES OR OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF
+12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDENSDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION.
I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF
THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS
SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN
CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY
GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL
COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE
COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST
COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A
REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT
THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS LIKELY SLID SOUTH WITH THE COLD POOL GENERATED
BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS HAVE SAGGED SOUTH AND WEST INTO
NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVE. TREND IS A SLOW
SHRINKING AND THERE IS AND LESS REDEVELPMENT NEAR THE IOWA
BORDER. ONCE THIS ENDS LITTLE EXPECTED OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME FOG
IN QUINCY. MODELS PUSH FRONT FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY AND IF THIS
HOLDS STORMS SUNDAY SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: STORMS TOO CLOSE SO WILL PUT IN A TEMPO FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. TREND HAS THE AREA SHRINKING AND DYING SO IT WILL
BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES
MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-
ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1130 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
1130AM UPDATE...
POPS WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
DECIDED TO PLACE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE ORDER OF A
FEW HUNDREDTHS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A WETTING RAIN
WHERE THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURS. MALIAWCO
930AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PUSHES EAST...FOLLOWING
THE LATEST NAM. THE GFS HAS A DRIER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
EXCEPT FOR JUST THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT YET HAVE
BACKING FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TWEAK
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING
WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS SOLID. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT
THE FORT PECK DAM HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT IT TO ONLY GO UP FROM THERE TO EXCEED 20 MPH. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF
MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT
SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE
STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS
FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH
DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
IN BETWEEN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN
ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND
TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE
WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PUSHES EAST...FOLLOWING
THE LATEST NAM. THE GFS HAS A DRIER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
EXCEPT FOR JUST THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT YET HAVE
BACKING FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TWEAK
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING
WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS SOLID. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT
THE FORT PECK DAM HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT IT TO ONLY GO UP FROM THERE TO EXCEED 20 MPH. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF
MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT
SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE
STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS
FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH
DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
IN BETWEEN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN
ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND
TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE
WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
350 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF
MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT
SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE
STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS
FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH
DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
IN BETWEEN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN
ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND
TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE
WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
616 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRAW LOW
LEVEL MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTH FROM WESTERN MEXICO INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER OUR AREA ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER...AS THE MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL NOT QUITE HAVE MADE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST YET.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH
THE WEAK INSTABILITY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE THE RESULT. AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN IN FORCE WITH SOME TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT. EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE WEEKEND.
TURNING TO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BOUNDARY...DISCERNIBLE IN THE
0-2KM THETA-E FIELDS...IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THAT BOUNDARY.
THE NAM12 SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OF 2000-4000J/KG WHILE THE GFS40 IS MUCH LOWER...SO THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
FOR THE TIME BEING...THEN...WE WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOW TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ON THURSDAY...THE 0-2KM THETA-E PROJECTION INDICATES THE HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE BOUNDARY PRESSING EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE NAM12 SHOWS SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 5000J/KG OR HIGHER OVER THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH 35-45KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE AND END FROM THE WEST AND THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL WILL BE
EASTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CNTL
HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
GIVEN THE WEAKNESS IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD...LITTLE MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THUS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS IS LOW.
THE TSTMS NEAR CHEYENNE COULD MOVE THROUGH SWRN NEB SOMETIME
TONIGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. HOWEVER LITTLE EASTERN MOTION
HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE 4 PM CDT AND A GENERALLY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE WEAK 850MB WINDS TONIGHT SHOWN IN
THE RAP MODEL IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TSTMS MAY NOT AFFECT SWRN
AND IF AT ALL...IN A GREATLY WEAKENED STATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OUT THERE ARE VERY HOT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REPORTING HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 AT 3 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS
AGAIN MONDAY FOR QUITE A FEW COUNTIES IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND
IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE DOME OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS VARYING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 70S IN OUR WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR EAST. WE ALSO HAVE
THE SPORADIC IOWA AWOS VALUES IN THE LOW 80S. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A TROUGH IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING IN
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE BOUNDARY
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY ONCE AGAIN SO DID HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR MONDAY.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS HOT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE LOWER AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WE CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES WITH
ANY OF THESE WAVES. CONVECTION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE...THEN
SPREAD EAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD AID CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND BRINGING SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES OF TSTMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-
066>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS A RATHER CLASSIC MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN SOMEWHAT THURSDAY
AS DRY AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A RETURN TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR LUBBOCK TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
BOTH 18Z NAM12 AND 20Z HRRR PICKING UP ON PERTURBATION/VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR SE ARIZONA. BOTH MODELS BRING THIS
FEATURE INTO SWRN AND WEST CENTRAL NM AFTER MIDNIGHT...HELPING TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THERE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD MORE EASILY INTO
THE NE AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM THURSDAY...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE DOWN DAY
THERE. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HANGS TOUGH ELSEWHERE.
12Z GFS PROGGING AN INCREASE IN SELY WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH
AND WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DOLORES. THIS INCREASING FLOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND DEEP
CONVECTION OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND SRN ARIZONA. 12Z GFS GOES SO FAR
AS TO DEVELOP A WARM CORE LOW OVER SE AZ/WRN NM THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. SUCH A FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE IN
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO
FAR OUT AT THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF A FEATURE YET TO
DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
SUNDAY COULD BE THE NEXT DOWNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTS TO
RETROGRADE WWD INTO SRN AZ. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION REMAINS
LOW AS 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER SE NM...KEEPING
WRN AND NRN NM ACTIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CROP TODAY IS GREATER IN
NUMBER AND AT LEAST AS VIGOROUS AS WAS THE CASE SAT...MOST TODAY
BEING ACROSS THE WEST TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA AND INTO EAST AZ. NO
MAJOR CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH FCST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TO BE THU TO FRI AND
MAY BE SHORTER IN DURATION THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED THE PAST DAY OR
TWO. LESS INDICATION THAN 12 TO 24 HRS AGO OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT
PUSHING INTO NE NM NEAR MON TO MON NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH IF
CONVECTION DOES RAMP UP IN SE CO THERE STILL WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
A STORM COMPLEX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR NE. IF IT DOES NOT
HAPPEN THEN STORM COVERAGE IN NE NM MAY NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH.
FCST MODELS FOR THE MOST PART CONTINUING TO DELAY...A FEW EVEN
ELIMINATE...THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE STATE...
LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WEST HALF OF NM. NEXT
WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL INDICATED AS
MOVING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE
WELL TO OUR WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH WED...WITH SOME DECREASE POSS THU.
43
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CENTER OF UPPER LVL HIGH REMAINS TO EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER
TROF JUST OFF WEST COAST AND THIS COMBO IS KEEPING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TO N CENTRAL NM. SHRA AND TSRA TO
INCREASE TO SCT OR EVEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AT
LEAST A FEW REACHING THE LOWER TERRAIN AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER TSRA. ISOLD
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO
THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SE AND E
CENTRAL NM DUE TO TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS
CORRECT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 58 85 60 86 / 20 20 20 10
DULCE........................... 50 80 50 79 / 20 20 20 30
CUBA............................ 51 77 53 75 / 30 40 30 40
GALLUP.......................... 52 82 53 81 / 40 40 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 51 78 52 76 / 40 60 30 40
GRANTS.......................... 53 80 54 79 / 30 40 30 50
QUEMADO......................... 55 79 56 78 / 30 40 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 56 86 57 84 / 30 30 30 30
CHAMA........................... 49 73 48 72 / 30 60 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 80 59 79 / 30 50 30 60
PECOS........................... 56 81 57 79 / 30 20 20 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 76 52 75 / 30 40 30 40
RED RIVER....................... 48 69 46 68 / 40 70 40 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 71 51 70 / 40 60 40 70
TAOS............................ 51 80 51 79 / 30 20 20 20
MORA............................ 53 78 53 76 / 30 40 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 57 86 57 84 / 30 10 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 59 82 60 81 / 20 10 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 85 59 84 / 20 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 86 65 86 / 20 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 88 68 88 / 20 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 90 63 90 / 10 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 89 66 88 / 20 5 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 90 61 88 / 20 5 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 89 65 88 / 20 5 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 63 92 63 91 / 20 10 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 83 59 82 / 20 20 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 56 85 56 84 / 20 10 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 86 51 85 / 10 5 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 83 59 83 / 20 10 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 85 59 84 / 20 5 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 89 62 90 / 20 5 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 59 81 59 81 / 20 20 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 59 83 57 82 / 40 20 30 50
RATON........................... 57 86 56 84 / 30 10 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 58 88 57 86 / 30 10 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 83 55 82 / 20 20 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 65 95 63 92 / 20 5 10 20
ROY............................. 62 89 61 88 / 20 5 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 67 98 67 97 / 10 5 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 95 66 94 / 10 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 66 95 65 95 / 20 0 5 5
PORTALES........................ 67 97 67 97 / 20 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 97 67 96 / 20 0 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 99 67 98 / 5 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 62 93 62 92 / 20 5 10 10
ELK............................. 60 85 60 85 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CENTER OF UPPER LVL HIGH REMAINS TO EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER
TROF JUST OFF WEST COAST AND THIS COMBO IS KEEPING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TO N CENTRAL NM. SHRA AND TSRA TO
INCREASE TO SCT OR EVEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AT
LEAST A FEW REACHING THE LOWER TERRAIN AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER TSRA. ISOLD
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO
THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SE AND E
CENTRAL NM DUE TO TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS
CORRECT.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE
FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE
THE MOST INACTIVE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT
BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND
SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE
RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH.
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT
REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A
WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO
MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST.
THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE
THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE
ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF
WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME
DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO
THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY
BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE
MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E
FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO
DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END
OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO THE EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ALONG
WEST COAST HOLDING PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO. SCT TO NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z WRN AND NRN HIGHER TERRAIN
THEN TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NE HIGHLANDS PRIOR TO
13/00Z. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA.
ISOLD STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV
TO THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. EAST CENTRAL/SE NM TO BE RELATIVELY
STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS CORRECT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE
FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE
THE MOST INACTIVE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT
BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND
SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE
RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH.
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT
REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A
WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO
MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST.
THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE
THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE
ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF
WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME
DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO
THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY
BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE
MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E
FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO
DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END
OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE
FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE
THE MOST INACTIVE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT
BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND
SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE
RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH.
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT
REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A
WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO
MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST.
THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE
THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE
ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF
WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME
DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO
THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY
BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE
MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E
FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO
DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END
OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-SHRA/TSRA LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY -TSRA OR TWO OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN VERY SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN...
SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR
15KTS...AND FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 87 59 88 60 / 50 30 20 20
DULCE........................... 79 51 80 50 / 30 30 30 30
CUBA............................ 79 52 79 53 / 50 30 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 81 52 83 54 / 50 40 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 77 50 80 52 / 70 40 50 30
GRANTS.......................... 80 52 83 54 / 60 30 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 79 54 80 55 / 70 30 50 30
GLENWOOD........................ 86 56 87 57 / 50 30 30 30
CHAMA........................... 77 49 78 48 / 40 30 40 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 59 82 59 / 50 30 40 30
PECOS........................... 81 57 82 57 / 30 30 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 53 76 52 / 40 30 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 70 43 68 43 / 40 40 50 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 49 71 49 / 40 40 50 40
TAOS............................ 81 52 82 52 / 20 30 30 30
MORA............................ 78 54 78 53 / 40 30 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 86 56 88 57 / 20 30 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 82 58 85 60 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 57 88 59 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 63 88 65 / 30 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 65 90 67 / 30 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 92 65 / 30 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 62 91 66 / 30 20 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 89 62 90 65 / 30 20 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 64 91 65 / 30 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 89 63 90 63 / 30 20 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 58 85 59 / 40 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 85 59 87 60 / 40 30 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 54 87 54 / 30 20 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 58 85 58 / 40 20 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 58 84 60 / 30 20 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 89 63 / 30 20 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 79 60 81 59 / 40 20 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 86 59 86 58 / 10 20 10 20
RATON........................... 88 57 88 56 / 5 20 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 88 58 88 58 / 5 20 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 56 84 55 / 20 20 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 95 65 95 63 / 0 10 5 10
ROY............................. 88 62 89 61 / 5 10 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 96 67 98 67 / 5 10 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 66 95 66 / 10 10 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 68 100 68 / 0 5 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 93 65 96 66 / 0 5 0 5
PORTALES........................ 94 66 96 66 / 0 5 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 67 96 67 / 5 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 97 67 100 67 / 0 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 89 62 91 62 / 20 10 10 5
ELK............................. 82 60 85 60 / 20 10 20 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-SHRA/TSRA LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY -TSRA OR TWO OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN VERY SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN...
SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR
15KTS...AND FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON...
FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS AND SHUTS DOWN CHANCES THERE. A WARMING TREND IS
UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW...AND HOLD AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SHIFT
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ONLY THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON
RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MONSOON MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS. TODAY`S ROUND OF STORMS FAVORS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WHERE SHEAR IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THE CURRENT CROP OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SOCORRO...
BELEN AND ALBUQUERQUE. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO
BETWEEN 23-01Z. LOOKING MORE LIKE A GOOD BET HERE IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO WITH A LAST LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT
3 PM MDT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DIFFERENT THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH...
CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES...
MAINLY EAST...AND A FOCUSING OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING-IN. SO...EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SLOWER
MOTION TO TILT THE THREAT TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MUCH
LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE.
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND BACK DOWN MON/TUE AS THE UPPER HIGH BACKS
OFF TO THE EAST A BIT...ALLOWING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
TILT BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA...
LEAVING-OUT ONLY THE SOUTHEAST IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK-WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT THE IDEAL PLUME POSITIONING WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUR FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD CLIMO FOR FRI/SAT.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DOWN TREND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...WITH
LESS ACTIVITY EAST CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
BIT...FINALLY REACHING ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...WHILE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. HAINES
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...WITH AREAS OF 5 TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. VENTILATION TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF
POOR TO FAIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING A FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON SURGE FROM MEXICO INTO NEW
MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAVORED THE WEST. RH
RECOVERIES TODAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES.
AS THE UPPER CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE PLUME WILL BE
NUDGED TO THE WEST AS WELL SUCH THAT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE WETTING
RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THERE ON MONDAY
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY
COULD ALSO HELP EXTEND THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH COULD WEAKEN/FLATTEN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOME ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MONSOON PLUME COULD REPOSITION OVER NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
231 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST
LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
A A QUICK GLANCE AT THE CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN MCS IS STILL WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION SO I SLIGHTLY REDUCED OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS
FORECASTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR
MASS TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SO I
CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY... MILD MID-JULY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH
OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR
THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP
INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING
HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED
500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO
WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS
SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM
SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY
TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE
GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800
AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE
DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV
4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND
SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL
FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO
THE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION
OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING
CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF EARLIER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER CANADA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND LAST EVENING. EXPECTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM 13Z-15Z SUNDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND 00Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTING TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOCALLY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN
FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER.
00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST
LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
A A QUICK GLANCE AT THE CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN MCS IS STILL WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION SO I SLIGHTLY REDUCED OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS
FORECASTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR
MASS TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SO I
CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY... MILD MID-JULY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH
OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR
THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP
INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING
HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED
500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO
WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS
SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM
SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY
TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE
GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800
AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE
DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV
4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND
SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL
FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO
THE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION
OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING
CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECK REMAININ IN PLACE. WITH CLOUD COVER NOT
FORECASTING FOG FORMATION AT TAF SITES. WEAK FRONT TO NORTH
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN ONTARIO SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. LATEST DATA CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHEAST NY AND VERMONT CANADIAN BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT TAF SITES DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES KSLK/KMPV,
HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW OF HITTING INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE AND
IN OUTER PERIOD OF TAF CYCLE SO OPTED TO KEEP THEM OUT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN
FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER.
00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
801 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE A L/W TROUGH TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS PERIOD.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY OVER THE SANDHILLS EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FEEDING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THIS
BOUNDARY. THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT MID AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM THE
TRIAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SO EXPECT THE SCATTERED STORMS TO
EVENTUALLY GENERATE/BUILD WESTWARD INTO THIS SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS REGION SO ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORMS WHICH
EXHIBIT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LOADING WILL HAVE
THE THREAT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHEN THE
PRECIP LOAD DESCENDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE
HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHICH HAS SEEN THE
MOST HEATING TODAY.
LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 02Z-4Z)...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY CROSSING
SOUTHERN OH-NORTHERN KY WILL BE APPROACHING OUR NW COUNTIES.
MAJORITY OF WRF MODELS DISSIPATE THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO
OUR REGION...THOUGH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR DRAGS THIS SYSTEM
(THOUGH IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER FORM) ACROSS THE REGION. GFS HAS HAD A
STRONG SIGNAL THE PAST FEW RUNS A WELL...BRING THIS SYSTEM THOUGH
OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH END CHANCE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-30KTS WITH
MLCAPE 400-800J/KG. THIS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN THE FORM OF BROKEN BANDS WITH SOME BOWING FEATURES POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...
...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
PROBABLE TUESDAY NIGHT...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OR DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HEATING
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL GENERATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
BY AFTERNOON. A STEADY SW WIND AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
MANNER OF A MECHANISM ALOFT TO TRIGGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.
BULK SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...AND MORE SO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL 45-50KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS ENHANCED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40KTS. A
S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL INITIATE/SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. DUE TO THE STRONG HEATING EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PERSIST WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE
ABNORMALLY STRONG BULK SHEAR SUGGEST A GOOD PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE MAY PERSIST WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC SFC BOUNDARY ARE PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST OF I-95 BY 18Z WED...SO LOOK FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO WIND DOWN
DURING THE MORNING TO MID-DAY PERIOD WED. WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE
LAGGING...HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW-MID 90S.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO NC FOR THU
AND FRI...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WITH READINGS NEAR
OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BACK TO CLIMO AND PERHAPS ABOVE CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CENTER OVER THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY MOVES WEST AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROUND THE
RIDGE TOP AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT... MAINLY AFFECTING KGSO/KINT. AS THE LINE OF STORMS
MOVES ACROSS A GIVEN LOCATION EXPECT WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS AT LEAST
INTO THE 25 TO 40 KT RANGE... WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT THE
LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC BY
AROUND 9 PM... THEN QUICKLY PROGRESSING EAST AND SOUTHWARD. PATCHY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING.
EXPECT WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO
25 MPH (TO MAYBE EVEN 30 MPH) BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION HIGHLY PROBABLE IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES/CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEST OF DEVILS
LAKE...WITH VERY LITTLE NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL
KEEP ISOLD STORMS IN ACROSS THE NORTH BUT REMOVE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER MAY SEE SOME INCREASE FROM
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SRN CANADA...AND BOTH NAM AND HRRR MIN TEMPS
WERE A BIT WARMER THAN PREV FCST SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED DID USE THE NAM12 AS A STARTING
POINT AND DROPPED THEM A COUPLE OF DEG TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. OVERALL MID 60S LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE EVENING CONVECTION. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING NW TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
WILL ADDRESS LOCALIZED CONVECTION WITH HIGHER POPS AND KEEP LOW
CHANCE ELSE WHERE. ALSO INCREASING POPS A BIT OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST OVER ROSEAU AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES. NON
SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER IS STILL HIGH (3 TO 4 UNITS) OVER
NORTHEAST ND AND HAVE HAD REPORTS OF WEAK FUNNELS OVER THE LAST
HOUR (NEAR WARROAD...A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHEST AFOREMENTIONED
VALUES...SO CONTINUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK FUNNELS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA.
THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE HOWEVER WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR STORMS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
REMAIN BLO SEVERE LIMITS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WEAK
FUNNELS WITH THESE STORMS AS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF
ROTATION AND WEAK FUNNELS. SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN FA SO A FEW STORMS COULD PULSE UP CLOSE TO SEVERE
LIMITS. WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 60S
AS DEWPOINTS HOLD UP.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND HOLDS INTO MID
WEEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWING WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSES WHICH MAY RIDE
THROUGH RIDGE. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TOMORROW
MAY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
A STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL
BUT WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF DAILY CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY
ZONAL OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS...ALTHOUGH NARROWING IN ON
THE BEST TIME FRAME IS DIFFICULT DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS. ALTHOUGH HAVE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS...PLENTY OF DRY HOURS
ARE EXPECTED. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
VFR CONDS WITH LOCALIZED TS POSSIBLE AT TVF AND DVL. CURRENT RADAR
INDICATING STORMS STILL TOO FAR TO IMPACT AERODROMES BUT IF THEY
BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THESE SITES...WILL MAKE NECESSARY AMENDMENTS.
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF STORMS NOT GIVING ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TOO
MENTION IN EITHER TAFS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO FINE TUNE POPS INTO MID AFTERNOON. SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 2 AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA IS IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN WITH THE STRONGER AREA INITIALLY NEAR THE MN/SD/ND
BORDER AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
CONVECTION CLOSE TO EXITING THE FAR EAST AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. PULLED POPS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER.
EXPECT CIGS AT ALL SITES TO BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SFC HEATING...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO BE AROUND 4-6 KFT AS SFC
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...RESULTING IN ABUNDANT LL
MOISTURE FOR LOW BASED CU DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 21Z-02Z TIME FRAME AS BEST DYNAMICS COME
TOGETHER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKES COUNTRY OF MN...AND AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FA...AT A MINIMUM BROUGHT IN VCTS DURING THE PERIOD
MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR CONTINUED SRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WITH
ERRATIC WINDS AND LLWS INVOF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
CONVECTION CLOSE TO EXITING THE FAR EAST AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. PULLED POPS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
KTVF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
THINK STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE KBJI AREA SO KEPT A
MENTION OUT FROM THERE. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL GET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A FEW MODELS SHOW
STORMS FIRING IN SOUTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR KFAR.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CIGS
VFR IN THE 6000-10000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER RANGE. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE
EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
KTVF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
THINK STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE KBJI AREA SO KEPT A
MENTION OUT FROM THERE. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL GET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A FEW MODELS SHOW
STORMS FIRING IN SOUTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR KFAR.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CIGS
VFR IN THE 6000-10000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER RANGE. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE
EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ALL SITES VFR EXCEPT KDVL...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE SOME VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO THE STORM WHICH WILL BE DONE BY 07Z OR SO. SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...BUT WHICH TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND WILL AMEND FOR VCTS IF NEEDED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
823 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY. MORE DISTURBANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE
800 PM UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO LINE
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING POCKETS OF TREE
DAMAGE. COULDNT FIND ANY ASOS OR MESONETS IN OUR AREA THAT
RECORDED GUSTS PAST 48 MPH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EVEN THESE WINDS ARE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TOPPLE SOME TREES GIVEN HOW WET OUR SOILS ARE.
ALLOWED THE SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CLEANED UP THE PRODUCTS
TO REFLECT THIS.
CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. EVEN
AN INCH OF RAIN CAUSED PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW CREEKS
COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM TO SEE
JUST HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH S/W TROF INTERACTING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE NW TO
SE LLVL THETA E GRADIENT OVER THE OH VALLEY...GENERALLY JUST W OF
OUR CWA. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN HOW WORKED
OVER OUR AIRMASS IS...WOULD THINK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD
SNIFF OUT THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN C KY VS IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE TAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT
EVEN IT PUTS A HVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
ALLOWED HIGHER POPS TO WORK IN TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE REMAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING
IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES.
ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW
OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS
LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES
OF LATE. IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD
CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE EARLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH QPF NEARING
1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. COORDINATED WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRYER WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST
POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY
INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL FIGURING ON MVFR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM 03Z TO
06Z...BUT UNSURE IF THEY STAY SCATTERED OR DEVELOP A CEILING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION MOSTLY CEILINGS. SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT GREAT.
SO...HAVE SOME MVFR SHRA MENTION IN THE TERMINALS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MOSTLY AFTER 21Z WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG TO SVR CONVECTIVE LINE TO MOVE THRU.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG IN QUESTION
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AND MUGGY AIR OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING. IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-
013>018-024>029-033>038.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...MZ/26
LONG TERM...JB/MZ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING STORMS ARE FIRING IN A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BEHIND THE
LARGE SWATH OF STORMS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR PORTSMOUTH AND WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND HAVE A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. MORE STORMS UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXISTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPSTREAM
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND MAY PERSIST AND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN A
STATE OF FLUX WITH HOW THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT
BUT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR MODEL.
IF THE LINE DEVELOPS...THE OVERNIGHT THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE A
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND COULD CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA. A DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT AND
HAVE ADDED SEVERE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AND HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...HWO...AND HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR 70.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR 100 ACROSS EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ATOP BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS WE/LL ACTUALLY GET A COUPLE OF
DAYS WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THOUGH IT
WOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE IF A LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL OHIO ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOL DAYS OF THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CLIMBING BY FRIDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON - BUT THE BULK
OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS FORCING IS WEAK. THE WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES
WASHING OUT A BIT. TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER THAN WE/VE SEEN
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SOME PRETTY STEAMY AIR COMES WITH IT - SO IT
WILL BE MUGGY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TROUGHING TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEEMS ENOUGH
THERE WITH THE WARM/MUGGY AIR THAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WILL BRING REDUCED
VSBYS...CIGS...WIND GUSTS...AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A
LULL AT TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF
NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS
WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A
SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS
THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL
HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF
THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A
TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR
TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP. FOR
MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN H500
SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM LOOKS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER BRINGING MOST OF THE ENERGY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. PREFER THE CONSENSUS FROM GFS/ECMWF. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THIS SHORTWAVE TO BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE CODED
LIKELY POPS FOR BOTH DAYS WITH EACH SYSTEM.
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUES DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING
QUITE HUMID. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LESS NUMEROUS THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LULL
IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS ON FRIDAY.
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD BRING SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATED WIDESPREAD DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
WENT WITH WPC FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO CONTAIN
SOME WIND GUSTS AND INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NEED UPDATES.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOILS REMAIN QUITE WET. WITH THAT IN
MIND...BROUGHT IN IFR FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN WITH
THE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF
NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED SHORTWWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS
WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A
SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS
THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL
HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF
THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A
TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR
TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP. FOR
MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER
FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY
QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO
ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY
PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL
AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS
THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH
HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO CONTAIN
SOME WIND GUSTS AND INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NEED UPDATES.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOILS REMAIN QUITE WET. WITH THAT IN
MIND...BROUGHT IN IFR FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN WITH
THE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
649 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
DECAYING MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. NORTHERN PORTION
SHOULD FALL APART FAIRLY QUICKLY AND IS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD TOP
WARMING...BUT KEEP POPS COMING INTO THE TRI STATE AND SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN PRODUCING INITIATION BOUNDARIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OUTFLOWS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO A MORE CONVECTIVE INDUCING ENVIRONMENT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS THE MID SUMMER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS.
THE FIRST FEATURE TO TRACK TODAY IS AN AXIS DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEATURE CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL IN
THE HRRR INITIALIZATION WHICH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND...SO HAVE BUMPED
UP THE POPS TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING AS
IT ENTERS THE CWA...BUT THIS OLDER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE
OF A FACTOR ALONG THE TUG FORK VALLEY AND WEST. THE BETTER FORCING
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL SEE SORT OF A
SQUEEZE PLAY SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. MAY NOT SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY FOR THE KANAWHA VALLEY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG A BAROCLINIC
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO A NIGHT TIME MCS. STEERING FLOWS TRY TO TAKE THIS FURTHER TO
OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...BUT LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFTERNOON MAY DISRUPT THE
SYNOPTIC SETTING TONIGHT. SPC CARRIES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER
FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY
QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO
ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY
PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL
AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS
THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH
HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG WILL LIFT...BUT HAS HUNG ON DESPITE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN. AFTER THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION CAN
FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL VARY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. TEMPOS AND
AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO A MORE CONVECTIVE INDUCING ENVIRONMENT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS THE MID SUMMER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS.
THE FIRST FEATURE TO TRACK TODAY IS AN AXIS DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEATURE CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL IN
THE HRRR INITIALIZATION WHICH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND...SO HAVE BUMPED
UP THE POPS TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING AS
IT ENTERS THE CWA...BUT THIS OLDER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE
OF A FACTOR ALONG THE TUG FORK VALLEY AND WEST. THE BETTER FORCING
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL SEE SORT OF A
SQUEEZE PLAY SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. MAY NOT SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY FOR THE KANAWHA VALLEY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG A BAROCLINIC
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO A NIGHT TIME MCS. STEERING FLOWS TRY TO TAKE THIS FURTHER TO
OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...BUT LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFTERNOON MAY DISRUPT THE
SYNOPTIC SETTING TONIGHT. SPC CARRIES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER
FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY
QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO
ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY
PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL
AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS
THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH
HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELIEF IS THAT PKB AND HTS WILL GET INTO TOO MUCH OF THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OFF THE MCS TO THE NORTHWEST TO GET INTO ANYTHING
LOWER THAN MVFR MIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HAVE
CRW...CKB...AND EKN AT IFR OR WORSE.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY
MAY VARY TONIGHT. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1102 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE EARLIER...NEARLY SOLID LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
/WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/...HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO 2 OR
3 CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION /ONE ENTERING WARREN COUNTY...AND THE
SECOND/LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/.
BOTH AREAS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT/MID LEVEL VORT MAXES.
THESE POCKETS OF ENERGY /ABOVE A SLOWLY NEWD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT/ WILL LIKELY DRIFT ENE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS PWATS
INCREASE BY ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVERNIGHT /TO BETWEEN
1.5-1.75 INCHES/...SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...BEFORE REACHING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AFTER
08Z TUESDAY.
A MUCH MILDER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S REMAIN STEADY...OR SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 60F IN THE COLDEST
RURAL VALLEYS UP NORTH...TO ABOUT 66 OR 67F IN THE METRO AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES BRINGS A LOW AND SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL BE
SPLITTING THE STATE NW/SE EARLY...WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION
PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY /WITH MODELS INDICATING
THAT SOME SORT OF SECONDARY LOW WILL TRY TO FORM NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY LATE DAY/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD...GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J BY AFTERNOON. WIND
FIELDS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH PWATS QUICKLY SURGING UP OVER
1.5"...SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION COULD PRESENT LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS. WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .50" TO
1.00" POSSIBLE. DON/T PLAN ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...JUST
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IN OUR DISCUSSIONS AND MENTIONED SOME
TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/ZONES.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW MID JULY NORMALS IN NW HALF. HIGHS LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE LWR/MID 80S IN THE SE.
MAIN COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS CWA FROM GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT...BUT WEAK LOW ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND KEEPING MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH.
WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SE WITH LOWS HANGING NEAR
70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED "DEEP" SFC LOW ALONG
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NWRN
ONTARIO WILL MIGRATE EWD THRU QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST. CENTRAL PA
IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR
/JULY 11-20/.
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WED NGT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE DRY WX
DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A VERY LOW
RISK (20% OR LESS) OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ALLEGHENIES. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE NRN TIER LKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK TROUGHING LKLY ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS VERY
DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DWINDLING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. UPSTREAM
OBS SUGGEST KJST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A DROP TO IFR VSBY AS TSRA
COMES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-05Z. KBFD/KAOO COULD EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR
DROP BTWN 04Z-06Z. FOR LATER TONIGHT...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT LOW CIGS RESULTING FROM MOIST
SSERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS KBFD IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR
CONDS. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDS OVR MOST OTHER
CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS...MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z.
EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS TO LIFT BY LATE AM...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
THRU THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN.
HOWEVER...SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE PM
HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN SPOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE EARLIER...NEARLY SOLID LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
/WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/...HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO 2 OR
3 CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION /ONE ENTERING WARREN COUNTY...AND THE
SECOND/LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/.
BOTH AREAS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT/MID LEVEL VORT MAXES.
THESE POCKETS OF ENERGY /ABOVE A SLOWLY NEWD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT/ WILL LIKELY DRIFT ENE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS PWATS
INCREASE BY ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVERNIGHT /TO BETWEEN
1.5-1.75 INCHES/...SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...BEFORE REACHING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AFTER
08Z TUESDAY.
A MUCH MILDER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S REMAIN STEADY...OR SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 60F IN THE COLDEST
RURAL VALLEYS UP NORTH...TO ABOUT 66 OR 67F IN THE METRO AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES BRINGS A LOW AND SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL BE
SPLITTING THE STATE NW/SE EARLY...WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION
PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY /WITH MODELS INDICATING
THAT SOME SORT OF SECONDARY LOW WILL TRY TO FORM NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY LATE DAY/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD...GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J BY AFTERNOON. WIND
FIELDS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH PWATS QUICKLY SURGING UP OVER
1.5"...SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION COULD PRESENT LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS. WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .50" TO
1.00" POSSIBLE. DON/T PLAN ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...JUST
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IN OUR DISCUSSIONS AND MENTIONED SOME
TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/ZONES.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW MID JULY NORMALS IN NW HALF. HIGHS LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE LWR/MID 80S IN THE SE.
MAIN COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS CWA FROM GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT...BUT WEAK LOW ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND KEEPING MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH.
WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SE WITH LOWS HANGING NEAR
70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED "DEEP" SFC LOW ALONG
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NWRN
ONTARIO WILL MIGRATE EWD THRU QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST. CENTRAL PA
IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR
/JULY 11-20/.
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WED NGT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE DRY WX
DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A VERY LOW
RISK (20% OR LESS) OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ALLEGHENIES. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE NRN TIER LKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK TROUGHING LKLY ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS VERY
DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SUN SETS. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS COULD SUSTAIN
SCT SHRA INTO LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT LOW CIGS
RESULTING FROM MOIST SSERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL PA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS KBFD IS MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDS. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR
CONDS OVR MOST OTHER CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS...MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z.
EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS OVER NORTHERN PA TO LIFT BY LATE AM...AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THRU THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED TUE
AFTN. HOWEVER...SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE PM
HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN SPOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAILY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA.
COMPACT S/WV OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO PA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE
ERIE SEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY ESEWD THRU 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO THE LAURELS BTWN 21-00Z. HOWEVER
NEAR/SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR
RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN A NW-SE ZONE FROM ERN OH SEWD
THRU SWRN PA INTO NRN WV/WRN MD/NRN VA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PCPN
TRENDS BEYOND THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BELOW AVG...AND MUCH OF THE CWA
/PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ COULD END UP MAINLY
DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE
CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY...AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWLY
ROTATES NEWD INTO NY STATE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE OVER MT
THIS AFTERNOON CRESTS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT AND DEEPEN THE
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO DY3/TUESDAY.
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LIKE THE IDEA OF
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO P.M. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG COOLER THAN
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DOMINATES THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER PA REINFORCING HIGHER PWAT AIR AT
SAME TIME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS
WEAK OVER CENTRAL PA.
BY WED NIGHT INTO THU THE NAEFS SHOWS THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST IN
FAVOR OF RISING HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR. WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES THIS IS AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF.
LATE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS A WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST AGAIN LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN WAGGLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS PA ALL WEEK. FRI WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE COULD GET INTO A "RING-OF-FIRE" TYPE
PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE SERN US AND WE GET
SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS GIVING
WAY TO A THICKENING MID LVL CLOUD DECK. HRRR/COSPA SHOWS RAIN
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER HLG/PIT TO APPROACH JST BY 00Z. THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
THUR...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...ROSS/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAILY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA.
COMPACT S/WV OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO PA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE
ERIE SEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY ESEWD THRU 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO THE LAURELS BTWN 21-00Z. HOWEVER
NEAR/SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR
RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN A NW-SE ZONE FROM ERN OH SEWD
THRU SWRN PA INTO NRN WV/WRN MD/NRN VA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PCPN
TRENDS BEYOND THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BELOW AVG...AND MUCH OF THE CWA
/PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ COULD END UP MAINLY
DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE
CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY...AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWLY
ROTATES NEWD INTO NY STATE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE OVER MT
THIS AFTERNOON CRESTS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT AND DEEPEN THE
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO DY3/TUESDAY.
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LIKE THE IDEA OF
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO P.M. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG COOLER THAN
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DOMINATES THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER PA REINFORCING HIGHER PWAT AIR AT
SAME TIME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS
WEAK OVER CENTRAL PA.
BY WED NIGHT INTO THU THE NAEFS SHOWS THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST IN
FAVOR OF RISING HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR. WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES THIS IS AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF.
LATE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS A WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST AGAIN LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN WAGGLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS PA ALL WEEK. FRI WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE COULD GET INTO A "RING-OF-FIRE" TYPE
PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE SERN US AND WE GET
SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS GIVING
WAY TO A THICKENING MID LVL CLOUD DECK. HRRR/COSPA SHOWS RAIN
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER HLG/PIT TO APPROACH JST BY 00Z. THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
THUR...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MULTIPLE IMPULSES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM...THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE FOR ALL OUR ZONES.
OVERNIGHT...CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS
IL/IN...WHERE A DIGGING TROF IS INTERSECTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THESE STORMS
CONGEALING INTO ANOTHER MCS...AND TAKES THAT ACTIVITY SOUTH TO THE
TN/NC BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OTHER CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
TREND...EXCEPT GENERALLY KEEP THE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST ACRS
CENTRAL KY/TN. THE 00Z NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR. GIVEN
THAT MOST OF THE UPSTREAM AIR HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THIS EVENING/S
MCS...I THINK THE HRRR IS NOT THE WAY TO GO...AND EXPECT ONLY A SLGT
CHC TO LOW-END CHC OF ANY CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWFA THRU EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SO I HAVE CUT BACK POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S.
THE FCST FOR TUESDAY LOOKS TO DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SECOND MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SUFFER DUE
DO EITHER ITS CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. HIRES GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE NC
ZONES BEING CONVECTION FREE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT MCS TRACK IS
PROGGED BEYOND THE PERIOD AND WILL BE AIDED BY THE PROGRESSION OF
THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE
CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PLACED
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST IN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNSTABLE/SHEARED AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OF 215 PM MONDAY...MAIN ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TUE
NIGHT WHEN A RATHER RARE JULY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEING DRIVEN BY A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SWINGING SE FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TUE
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS RATHER MUTED IN ITS QPF RESPONSE TUE NIGHT AS
IT LIMITS CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT.
THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH DEEP LAYER NW FLOW IN PLACE.
THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
NAM SOLUTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL INDEED BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS JUST SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS SURVIVING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WIND SHEAR
REMAINS ELEVATED.
AFTER THE BKN-SCT CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSES...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY WED. SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN LINE ON WED...AND SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WED SHOULD BE DRY THANKS
TO THE NW FLOW AND RESULTANT LOWER RH`S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT
A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER TO NEAR
CLIMO VALUES ON THU AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE NE/E.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM PLACING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TRACK BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND AND TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE SE STATES. IN
ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH A LEE TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. THIS SET UP IS FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH MONDAY AND SUGGESTS A MAINLY DIURNAL MODE TO THE CONVECTION
WHICH COMMENCES ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD ADVECT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT 3-4 HOURS WILL BE CONVECTION. FIRST
WITH SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINAL.
SECOND...A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS TRYING TO CROSS THE NC MTNS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE LINE WILL AT LEAST REACH KCLT AS A
DECAYING BLOB OF PRECIP WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
WILL TEMPO IN A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPACT AROUND THE TERMINAL FROM
01-03Z. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THINGS TO WIND DOWN WITH MAINLY JUST MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK...IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS AND WINDS CAN GO CALM. WILL
LEAVE OUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS. ON TUESDAY...GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
AND ORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER COMPLEX...PUSHING INTO NC IN THE EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SO WILL ADD A PROB30 STARTING AT 21Z.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE. KAVL AND KHKY HAVE BEST CHC OF
STRONG IMPACTS FROM A LINE OF STORMS JUST TO THEIR NORTH AT TIME OF
00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE LINE IS WEAKENING...AND MAY NOT SURVIVE TO THE
UPSTATE SITES. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENUF INSTBY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS POPPING UP AHEAD OF THAT LINE. SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS
WITH TEMPOS AT KGMU/KGSP. STRONGER IMPACT WORDING FOR KAVL AND KHKY.
AFTER THE STORMS DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY JUST
LEFTOVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS IL/IN WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
SURVIVING TO ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS AND WINDS CAN REMAIN LIGHT. THE BEST CHC
LOOKS TO BE AT KAVL...WHERE I WILL PUT AN MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH AND TRACK INTO THE AREA IN THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THOSE
STORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN. SO
WILL HAVE PROB30 AT ALL SITES STARTING AROUND 21Z. THERE WILL BE
BETTER WIND GUST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTN...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW.
THEN...OF COURSE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WITHIN ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 85% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...HAVE BACKED OFF POP FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS. THE LATEST RAP AND
LAPS CAPE ANALYSES SHOW DECREASING INSTBY AND INCREASING CIN ACRS
THE ENTIRE CWFA THANKS TO THE THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY TSTMS...BUT THE
WINDOW SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION
UPSTREAM ACRS KY/TN MAY REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SO WILL KEEP A HIGHER POP THERE. ANYTHING REACHING THE
MTNS WILL LIKELY BE ON A DISSIPATING TREND GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTBY.
AT 245 PM...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DISSIPATING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD MCS. A THICK SHIELD OF
DEBRIS CIRRUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA...WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CU
EAST OF THE MTNS. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY TEMPS COUPLED WITH SLOW DEWPOINT RECOVER
HAS LEFT THE I-77 CORRIDOR STABLE. AREAS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY MAY RANGE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING DEEPER CONVECTION. THE TIME HAS COME TO DEPART FROM A CAM
AND NAM SCENARIO OF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD MCS COLD
POOL...I WILL LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...UNSETTLED NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERALLY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW STRAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN BORDER. LOW TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 70S
EAST.
ON MONDAY...EXPECTING THE HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE...WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUN SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
STEADILY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF H85 WAA. IN
ADDITION...SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY...YIELDING SEVERAL DEGREES OF DEWPOINT RECOVERY. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING H5 HEIGHTS...TEMPS PEAKING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...RESULTING IN BRISK STEERING FLOW TO THE SE. I EXPECT THAT
TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CARRIED OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BASED
ON DEEP INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR...A FEW SVR TSRAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...
WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES (S/W`S) RIPPLE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SUITE
OF MODELS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERING IN TIMING/EXACT LOCATIONS OF SAID
S/W`S...HAVE A SIMILAR THEME OF BRING A PACKET OF ENERGY ACROSS OUR
FA MONDAY NIGHT. THE ENERGY ALOFT...WITH DPVA...SHOULD INTERCEPT
INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES AND ALLOW CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP OR
MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY LOCAL COLD POOL
INTERACTIONS WITH A MICROBURST/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WE WILL HAVE
OUR HIGHEST POPS IN THE NC/FAR NE TN MOUNTAINS...WHERE BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WERE SHOWING EXTREME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEPARATED FROM THE ACTION EXPECTED WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST. UPSHOT WE WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL POP DISTRIBUTION...
WITH POPS INCREASING UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING DOWN. THE SLIGHT
RISK MONDAY LOOKS WELL PLACED BASED ON VARIOUS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.
WE DO NOT PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE GFS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A CONVECTIVE SCHEME BLOW-UP ALLOWING DAYBREAK CONVECTION TO HIT OUR
NORTHERN FA.
TRYING TO SENSIBLY PUT TOGETHER OUR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON S/W TIMING AND COLD POOL
INTERACTIONS. WE ARE GOING TO TRY AND FOLLOW THE PRIMARY S/W AND
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. AGAIN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE WEST IS THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO START...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH...MAY
SEND AN OUTFLOW AND KICK OFF THE PROCESS. ONCE AGAIN WE ARE
HIGHLIGHTING AN UPTICK IN POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS TIMING DIFFERENCES FILTER IN. NEVERTHELESS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL BE SUCH THAT PERHAPS ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE FRONTAL PATTERN TREND LEADS TO KEEPING
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FAVORED THE UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE TN.
WE HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSELY THIS SECTION...
WHICH MAINTAINS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z THURSDAY JUST
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
COMPLETELY CLEAN...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. MODEST DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO POPS WERE KEPT NEAR TO
BELOW CLIMO AND FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. FROM THIS POINT ON MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES...SO THE FORECAST IS
WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RETROGRESSES BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOISTEN THE
AIRMASS...LIKELY DRIVING UP POPS ONCE AGAIN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
CLIMO...AND INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM EVEN MORE TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WAVES OF THICK DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. CONVECTION FROM
AN OLD MCS WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH 20Z.
CAMS INDICATE THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE MTNS BETWEEN 20-21Z...AS THE OLD COLD POOL PLOWS EAST.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND CAPE ANALYSIS THE CAMS SCENARIO
REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...I WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OLD
TAFS AND INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. AFTER THIS EVENING...THE
CONCERN FOR FOG WILL REMAIN WHERE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KAVL SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST CHC FOR FOG...I WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH 4SM BETWEEN 10Z TO 12Z. ON MONDAY...THE RISK FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE MID
TO LATE MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE CAPE...I WILL ADD A PROB30
EAST OF I-77 DURING THE FINAL HOURS OF THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT.
ONLY THUNDERSTORM ACTION IN BOX IS NORTH OF BISMARCK ND WITH A
LONE SUPERCELL ALONG THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IS
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT 800 MB...WITH A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE. IN
FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURPRISINGLY LOW...ONLY 1.13
INCHES. WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MOST OF THE CU FIELD
IS GONE...AND ANYTHING TRYING TO GET GOING IS DYING QUICK. STILL
CANT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE EAST OF
MOBRIDGE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST AT OR AFTER SUNSET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET DOES GET GOING AFTER 03Z...BUT ITS BRIEF BEFORE
TURNING SW AND STRONGEST FARTHER EAST NEAR THE MN BORDER. THE WATCH
WILL CONTINUE BUT IF NOTHING IS GOING BY 03Z...MAY HAVE TO CANCEL
IT. MINOR UPDATES MADE TO GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 700MB
READINGS ARE IN THE +8 TO +11C RANGE...WITH WARMEST READINGS OVERTOP
THE DRY LINE BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70F...ENOUGH TO GENERATE OVER
4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WINDS THROUGH THE PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SPC SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. POOR OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STEMS FORM THE LACK OF ANY UPPER WAVE...AND A LACK OF
CONVECTION BEING GENERATED IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE WITH ONLY THE MOST
RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR DEPICTING ANY STORMS. BEST
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK
THE CAP...WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE WAVE IS EVIDENT FOR SUNDAY. THE DRY LINE WILL
ALSO BE PUSHED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...SO TEMPERATURES COULD MAX OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 100. WILL LEAVE HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE IN PLACE.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT FETCH OUT OF THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE
REGION AND MORE SMOKE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON STORM MONDAY THANKS
TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF
S/W ENERGY AS A DECENT JET DIGS A TROF INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRETTY DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME DRYNESS AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING KATY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FROM DEMING WEST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH HAS
PRETTY MUCH SNUFFED OUT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWLANDS...WILL REMAIN OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN TO FAR EAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MOST OF THE BORDERLAND. EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE BORDERLAND
FRIDAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS BACK
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION SO FAR IS OCCURRING ABOUT WHERE WE THOUGHT...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SUPPRESSED ANY ACTION OVER THE EASTERN
LOWLANDS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON BOTH ENDS OF THE CWA BUT LITTLE
IN BETWEEN DUE TO THE HIGH. HRRR SHOWS NICE OUTFLOW FROM ARIZONA
MOVING EAST TO AT LEAST DEMING BY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL RUNS ON
THIS FOR CONSISTENCY...THOUGH GUST SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED LAST RUN
OR TWO. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S STILL AROUND 1.0-1.1 INCH ACROSS
THE AREA SO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT MUCH THE SAME MONDAY AGAIN AS
UPPER HIGH JUST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. FOR MONDAY AIRMASS SHOWS GOOD
INSTABILITY MOUNTAINS AND DEMING WEST...THOUGH PW`S OF 1+ INCH
ONLY FROM DEMING WEST.
BY TUESDAY UPPER HIGH IS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSION SHOULD EASE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...POPS BACK IN ALL
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS SUGGESTING BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RIDGING DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM CENTER MAY
SUPPRESS STORMS AGAIN IN THE EAST. GFS SHOWING PW`S REMAINING
AROUND 1 INCH...BUT SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SPEEDS COULD STILL LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND...REGIME OF MOUNTAIN AND FAR WEST THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE LIKELY TOO MUCH FOR THE EAST. GFS LONG TERM
SHOWS UPPER HIGH RE-CENTERING TO OUR WEST...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL
AREAS. ECMWF MORE INCLINED TO KEEP UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS PLAY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z-14/00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO FAR NORTH
AND WEST LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN250 AND WINDS AOB 12 KTS.
HOWEVER VRB15G30KT ISO-SCT -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCS AND DMN
THRU 06Z WITH BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.
$$
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. THIS WILL LIMIT
MOST WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BUT VENT
RATES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE GOOD TO VERY GOOD CATEGORY
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 74 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 97 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 53 73 53 75 / 10 20 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 95 69 97 / 20 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 63 90 64 91 / 30 30 30 30
DEMING 68 98 70 99 / 20 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 67 97 68 98 / 30 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 99 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 97 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 67 98 68 100 / 10 0 0 10
HATCH 67 98 68 100 / 10 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 69 98 70 99 / 10 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 71 98 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 10 20
MESCALERO 55 85 55 87 / 10 20 20 20
TIMBERON 56 84 57 87 / 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 59 87 60 89 / 30 30 30 50
HILLSBORO 64 96 65 97 / 20 20 20 30
SPACEPORT 67 96 68 99 / 10 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 88 59 89 / 30 40 40 40
HURLEY 64 93 65 94 / 20 40 40 30
CLIFF 62 95 63 94 / 30 40 40 30
MULE CREEK 60 97 62 96 / 40 30 30 30
FAYWOOD 64 94 65 96 / 20 30 30 30
ANIMAS 67 97 68 98 / 30 30 30 20
HACHITA 67 97 67 98 / 20 40 40 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 96 67 96 / 30 40 40 30
CLOVERDALE 65 95 66 95 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/27 HEFNER/LANEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1003 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 1000 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SOUTHERN VA PIEDMONT (APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE). ALL OTHER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. MORE
STORMS ARE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY...
REMOVING ROANOKE AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS...ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS...AND SW VA FOOTHILL COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 414.
AS OF 815 PM EDT MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 CANCELLED EARLY AS CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL START ELIMINATING COUNTIES FROM
414 BY 900 PM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY.
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 (10 PM) AND 414 (1 AM)
REMAINS IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY.
CONVECTIVE LINE FADING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
REMOVE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED USING LATEST RADAR TREND AND 1322 HRRR RUN.
AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND
EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
EVENING.
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW
FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST
TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES
IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE
SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN
THE EAST.
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN
UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN
MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL
BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A
DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S
IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY.
ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN
THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE
BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS
AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY
MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED
LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE
WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A
SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF
SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>034.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RCS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
856 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY...
REMOVING ROANOKE AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS...ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS...AND SW VA FOOTHILL COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 414.
AS OF 815 PM EDT MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 CANCELLED EARLY AS CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL START ELIMINATING COUNTIES FROM
414 BY 900 PM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY.
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 (10 PM) AND 414 (1 AM)
REMAINS IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY.
CONVECTIVE LINE FADING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
REMOVE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED USING LATEST RADAR TREND AND 1322 HRRR RUN.
AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND
EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
EVENING.
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW
FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST
TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES
IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE
SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN
THE EAST.
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN
UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN
MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL
BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A
DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S
IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY.
ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN
THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE
BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS
AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY
MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED
LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE
WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A
SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF
SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>034.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RCS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
819 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 CANCELLED EARLY AS CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL START ELIMINATING COUNTIES FROM
414 BY 900 PM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY.
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 (10 PM) AND 414 (1 AM)
REMAINS IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY.
CONVECTIVE LINE FADING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
REMOVE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED USING LATEST RADAR TREND AND 1322 HRRR RUN.
AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND
EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
EVENING.
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW
FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST
TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES
IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE
SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN
THE EAST.
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN
UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN
MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL
BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A
DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S
IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY.
ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN
THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE
BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS
AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY
MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED
LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE
WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A
SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF
SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>034.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/RCS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 (10 PM) AND 414 (1 AM)
REMAINS IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY.
CONVECTIVE LINE FADING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
REMOVE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED USING LATEST RADAR TREND AND 1322 HRRR RUN.
AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND
EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
EVENING.
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW
FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST
TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES
IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE
SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN
THE EAST.
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN
UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN
MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL
BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A
DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S
IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY.
ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN
THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE
BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS
AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY
MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED
LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE
WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A
SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF
SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>034.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
143 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT AND THE MESSAGE CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUCH. HEAT AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING ACROSS IA/MN AT
THIS TIME. CLOUD DISSIPATION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM FORECAST. CONVERGENCE EAST OF KABR
CONTINUES WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGINNING IN SERN ND.
WHILE THE SPC GRAPHIC HAS THE AREA IN A MODERATE/ENHANCED
RISK...IT APPEARS THE CONFIDENCE IN A CONVECTIVE TRACK IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE CONVECTION AFTER INITIATION IN WRN MN LATER TODAY
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION LOOKS TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE DAKOTAS/MN TRIPLE POINT LATER TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SIGNALS FOR INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH NEAR KRWF AND ALSO
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD KGFK.
AFTER INITIATION...A MAJORITY OF CAMS MOVE THE CONVECTION
EAST...FAVORING A MEAN WIND / ADVECTIVE COMPONENT VERSUS
PROPAGATION AND CELL GROWTH INTO THE INSTABILITY POOL TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CONVECTION IS TIED MORE TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALONG I-94 IN DAKOTAS/MN AND LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. THE SPC RISK IS BASED ON PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION
INTO THE INSTABILITY WHICH HAS ITS MAX AXIS NEAR I-35 OR THRU CENTRAL
MN BY EVENING...EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS POOL
CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WI.
WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND WEST OF MISS RIVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER WIND SHEAR AND
WIND PROFILE OVERALL. THE SPREAD OF CAM SOLUTIONS AND THE LACK OF
A LINEAR FEATURE MAY BE DUE TO THE MODEST WIND SHEAR. THIS MAY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE REPORTS FROM THIS EVENT.
BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE SUPPORTING THE SPC CONVECTIVE RISK...WITH AN
ADJUSTMENT EAST A BIT MORE INTO WI. SEEMS THE SPC RISK AND A
PROPAGATION OF NEW CELLS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND FORECAST AREA
FROM CENTRAL MN IS ON TRACK. BELIEVE IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NWRN
FORECAST AREA BY LATER EVENING /AFTER 10 PM/. INITIATION SIGNALS
NEAR KRWF ALONG A SOUTHERN CONVERGENCE REGION AND TRUE MT AIR MASS
WARM FRONT WOULD PROVIDE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF STORMS.
THE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CANNOT BE UNDERPLAYED
EVEN WITH MODEST SHEAR. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE FAVORED FOR MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH ANY LINEAR BAND FAVORING SEVERE WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SEVERE CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME
CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z
NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST
CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE
MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN
PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR
NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES
ACROSS TONIGHT.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO
SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC
WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP
FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE
MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX
COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS.
THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN.
THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP
THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE
30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXPECT TSRA TO MOVE IN TO THE TAF AIRSPACE PROXIMITY LATER THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE VIGOROUS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS INVOF OF TSRA. UNTIL THAT TIME SOME BKN MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD
SKIES CLEAR...OR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG BEFORE TSRA MOVE INTO THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TSRA AND IF CONDIFENCE GROWS IN
TIMING AND ONSET...THIS WILL BE REFINED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SEVERE CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME
CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z
NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST
CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE
MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN
PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR
NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES
ACROSS TONIGHT.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO
SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC
WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP
FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE
MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX
COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS.
THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN.
THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP
THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE
30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
A PROBLEMATIC TAF PERIOD. FIRST OFF IS THE LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK AND AREAS OF BR THAT HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THIS MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK IS IN/UNDER A RATHER STRONG INVERSION NEAR
925MB...WHICH WILL MAKE THE LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTENT AND TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WARMING ALOFT AND A
WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA...EXTENDED MVFR CIGS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS THRU THIS MORNING. A
PERIOD OF SCT LOWER CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID AFTERNOON THRU
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST ON THIS
OCCURRING.
A COMPLEX OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING OF THE TSRA COMPLEX ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIER/
STRONGER OF THE TSRA WILL PASS. LEFT BOTH TAF SITES WITH A 4HR
PERIOD OF VCTS/CB CENTERED ON 05-06Z FOR NOW. ONCE THE COMPLEX
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS TRACK/TIMING CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA COMPLEX
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SEVERE CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME
CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z
NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST
CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE
MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN
PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR
NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES
ACROSS TONIGHT.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO
SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC
WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP
FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE
MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX
COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS.
THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN.
THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP
THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE
30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS OF 12.0430Z...IFR STRATUS DECK NOW
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN IL EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...IMPACTING KLSE/KRST BY 12.08Z TO
12.10Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE
MVFR RANGE WITH MIST. SUB 1 SM VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN FOG...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 12.06Z TAFS. MULTIPLE UPDATES
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS/MIST/FOG EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP 1000
TO 1200 FT AGL BKN LAYER IN PLACE UNTIL 12.17Z TO 12.18Z. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW ON TIMING...
SO WILL BEGIN BY INTRODUCING VCTS/BKN035CB FROM 13.03Z AT KRST TO
13.04Z AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN BOTH COVERAGE AND VERTICAL
EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN DIFFICULTY
FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND +14 TO +16 DEG C AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OWING TO
STRONG MIXING. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY QPF...AND THE HRRR OFFERS
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...OPTED TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A
110 KT H25 JET STREAK AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON.
A WEAK FROPA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY ON MON...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. THINK THIS
WILL KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND
21-00Z. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE H7-H3 LAYER AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN
OR EARLY EVE. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BIG TIME DIFFERENCES IN
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE NAM SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
OVER CYS ON MON AFTN...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS 200 J/KG AT MOST. 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE FROM EITHER MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE ANYTHING SEVERE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ON TUE. THE INCREASE
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. MAINTAINED AT
LEAST SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK
FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS LITTLE CONCERN FOR STRONGER CONVECTION DESPITE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THE MODELS SHOW
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUE...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER FOR HIGHS GIVEN THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MODELS TRENDING WARMER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRAKSA
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM MID WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH SOME
90S INTO THE PLAINS. 90 DEGREE HIGHS LIKELY FOR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SOME 100 DEGREE
READINGS LATE INTO THE WEEK IN PLACES LIKE CHADRON AND SCOTTS
BLUFF. MODELS ALSO TRENDING DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE MOVEMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
YESTERDAYS EC AND GFS BOTH WERE SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LAST
NIGHTS EC AND GFS BOTH INDICATED SPLITTING ENERGY WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE REST OF THE
ENERGY MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION AND THE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COOL AND WET AND
HOT AND DRY RESPECTIVELY. NOT REMOTELY CONFIDENT IN ANY SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE FEW AND VERY FAR BETWEEN.
STRONG ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON MON. ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT
LUSK...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS WILL ARRIVE ON TUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
UPR HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT OVR CENTRAL TX TODAY...WITH A
PLUME OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPR HIGH AND INTO CO. AS A RESULT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AREAS OVR
AND NR THE MTNS SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PCPN THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO
TUE MORNING.
ON TUE THE UPR HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVR ERN TX AS AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WRN STATES. THE
PLUME OF MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA ON TUE...AND THERE
WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST
NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS TUE AFTERNOON IN THE MID OR UPR 40S ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND IN THE MID TO UPR 50S NR THE KS BORDER. CAPE VALUES
LOOK FAIRLY LOW OVR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER NR THE KS BORDER 1000-2000 J/KG IS
FORECAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND
HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREADS THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SITS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TWO STRONG WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO. THE FIRST WILL BE
LIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...SPREADING
EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE GFS DEVELOPING AN MCS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND LIFTING IT
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS AN MCS AND TRACKS
IT EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THEN OVER THE PLAINS. HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE MCS TRACKS.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER STORMS. MODELS PUSH THE ACTIVITY
EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING...WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOCUSING IT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO AMPLIFY AND DRAW THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
FORCE THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
THE WEST. WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL HELP BRING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING. STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS LIMITED TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH SUNDOWN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HIGH ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN STATUS QUO...WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENING AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER TEXAS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE MAIN MOISTURE AND ENERGY
TO THE WEST...WITH CONTINUED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LIMITED
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH PARITAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 17Z AND COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BY 20Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW EVENING. WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAFS FOR COS...PUB
AND ALS FOR NOW...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF STORMS DO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
IN SW FLOW A WAVE PASSED LAST NIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A
SUBSIDENT REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED A BIT THROUGH TODAY WITH NO FAVORABLE
GRADIENT AREAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NO ORGANIZED FORCING IS
SEEN FOR THIS LATE AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT SO CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND POTENTIALLY DRIFT TO NEARBY VALLEYS TO THE
NE. HRRR SHOWS A QUICK DIMINISHING OF STORM COVERAGE WITH SUNSET
EXCEPT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TO SW SAN JUANS WHERE STORMS MAY
PERSIST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT FROM THE SOUTH AND FORCING
INCREASES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF THE JET PUSHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RESULTING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE UT-
CO STATE LINE. THE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...TO THE NE AT
10KTS...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS FAVORING EASTERN
UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO UNDER THE BEST LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING JET FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN
BRINGING A DRIER W-SW FLOW TO EASTERN UTAH. MOST AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN COLORADO. THE TREND
IS FOR LESS DRYING THAN PROGGED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY WHICH MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEW WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.5 INCH...SO ISOLATED
LATE-DAY STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE
RAIN.
THE NEXT MONSOONAL SURGE BEGINS LATE FRIDAY IN THE GFS WITH ITS
DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH. THE EC DELAYS THE SURGE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY. SO FOR THIS FORECAST WE SHOWED A WETTER TREND FOR THOSE
DAYS WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STORM
COVERAGE. THE WET PERIOD COULD INTO MONDAY WHEN THE EC BEGINS TO
PULL MOISTURE OFF OF HURRICANE DOLORES INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ACROSS THE TOP OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE GFS KEEPS
DOLORES FURTHER OUT TO SEA PERHAPS PULLING MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 25 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BRING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.
THE MOIST MONSOONAL AIRMASS WILL FUEL INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL PASS OVER AIRPORTS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS
MAY CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. STORMS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST
PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE CONVECTION TODAY, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS IN THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS WANED BUT WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
COASTAL LOCALES. SW FLOW COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWER OR TSTORMS TO
MOVE IN ALONG THE GULF COAST...SHOULD NIGHTTIME STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, SOME CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED ACTIVITY
GOING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT...BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ATLANTIC COAST AS HRRR IS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.
ANY RAIN IS BENEFICIAL FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HOWEVER, WITH THE
RAIN COMES THE TYPICAL LIGHTNING WITH OUR SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...AND THIS LIKELY SPARKED A WILDFIRE JUST NORTH OF 8TH
ST AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES
COULD BE SPARKED BY LIGHTNING IN THE COMING DAYS WITH THE
INCREASED TSTORM ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/
.THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING INTERIOR-EAST COAST METRO THIS WEEK,
PROVIDING FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN SOUTHEAST
FL...
DISCUSSION...
THUNDER RUMBLING OUTSIDE NWS MIAMI IS A SIGN OF CHANGING TIMES
WITH FINALLY A WIND FLOW REGIME ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. RIDGING WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BEING THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE HAVING
INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FAVORING MAX CONVERGENCE ON
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. IT WILL BE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE REGIME DOMINATING EACH DAY.
ONE NOTABLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY IS THAT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BOTH TRENDED HIGHER WITH REGARDS TO ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE INCREASE
ALREADY OCCURRING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW UP TO AROUND
1.6 INCHES. THE UPWARD MOISTURE TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HR WITH PWATS APPROACHING OUR MEDIAN FOR MID
JULY...AROUND 1.8 INCHES. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES. THIS WOULD SPELL A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WHICH LIES IN A SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT.
WPC QPF FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOWS AREAL AVERAGE OF 1-1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND 0.75-1.0 INCH OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THINKING IF MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS CONTINUE,
THESE NUMBERS COULD GO HIGHER. CERTAINLY ISOLATED DAILY TOTALS OF
2-4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...IN SOUTH FL TYPICAL RAINY SEASON
STYLE. MUCH NEEDED RAINS INDEED!
OF COURSE WITH THE RAINS COMES THE INCREASING LIGHTNING RISK.
THREE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA THIS YEAR.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OVER 10 MILES FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORM. WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE LIGHTNING RISK ON
SOCIAL MEDIA AND OUR PRODUCTS SINCE IT HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY
TSTORM-FREE ACROSS THE POPULATED EAST COAST METRO FOR SOME TIME.
/GREGORIA
MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LEADING TO A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...SO MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SCATTERED TSTORMS MOVE INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 93 75 93 77 / 50 40 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 91 77 / 40 50 50 20
MIAMI 91 76 91 77 / 50 40 50 20
NAPLES 90 77 90 78 / 30 30 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST
SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50
GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50
ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40
VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
201 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY...PRIMARILY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 69. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...THOUGH MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
RAPID DESTABILIZATION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS EXPECTED
AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY EVENING. 18Z DVN SPECIAL SOUNDING
SAMPLED NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM H850 TO H500 AND
NEARLY 100 KNOTS OF FLOW ABOVE 300MB. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S BENEATH THIS EML...EXPECT
EXTREME INSTABILITY OF 4000 TO 6000 J/KG BY 22Z. THIS INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO
EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION LATER THIS EVENING. HP
SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
BEFORE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.
DURING THIS 22Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SSW WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXTREMELY LOW
LCLS COUPLED WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED TORNADIC RISK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY...A
STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER 850 FLOW
(35 TO 40 KNOTS) FROM THE LATEST HRRR VERIFIES.
EACH RUN OF THE HRRR HAS ADVECTED THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSIVELY
FURTHER EAST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A GREATER THREAT FURTHER NORTHEAST
THAN THE CURRENT AREA OF FOCUS WHICH IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 IN
INDIANA.
MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE ROUND OF
RAIN THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS
EVENING WITH A VERY HIGH THETA E AIRMASS AND TRAINING STORMS
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH 06Z.
ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN OUR CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
ROBUST NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR NRN MN WILL DIG SEWD
INTO THE ERN LAKES ON TUE. RESULTING TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS THE
LAKES WILL SHUNT UNSTABLE LL THETA-E RIDGE SWWD UNDER PERSISTENT H5
RIDGE CNTRD ACRS E TX. HWVR RESPITE FM WET PATTN LIKELY FLEETING AS
SRN PLAINS RIDGE BLDS BACK NORTH AGAIN W/EWD FOLDING THETA-E RIDGE
XPCD DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF AT TIMES CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF AMPLIFYING WRN US TROUGHING.
AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT REORDERED POPS/WX
FRI-SUN TO HIGHLIGHT BTR CHCS ACRS THE NORTH IN PROXIMITY TO IMPLIED
UPR JET STREAM ACRS LWR MI AND INVOF OSCILLATING SFC FNTL ZONE.
OTRWS VRY WARM TEMPS XPCD TO MANIFEST UNDERNEATH STEADILY NWD BLDG
UPR RIDGE AXIS AND NO DOUBT HOT...HUMID 90S LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ON MARKED DOWNTREND ERLY THIS AM. VFR MET CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD...SAVE FOR BRIEF MVFR BR FORMATION NEAR
DAYBREAK AROUND SOGGY KFWA AIRFIELD. ADDITIONAL CAVEAT IS LOW PROB
SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY TUE ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH...THOUGH CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR INZ003-012-013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR
MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY
NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER
MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OD
DRIZZLE WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS
INCREASING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR
MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY
NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE
STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO
ONTARIO.
EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED
CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO
OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE
HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING
DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE
AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND
UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE.
LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE
WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF
7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK.
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND
1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST
INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM
CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN
IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER
FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE
IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1217 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SUPPORTS A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EASTWARD BUT SOME GUSTY WEST WIND AND IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
LIKELY AT EACH LOCATION UNTIL THE CLUSTERS EXIT EASTWARD TOWARD
SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATO-CU AND PERHAPS
ADDITIONAL SCT -SHRAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SW TONIGHT TO W DURING THE MORNING NW/N DURING AFTN/EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
FOR DTW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE 07Z-11Z PERIOD AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES PIVOT THROUGH REGION.
IFR RESTRICTION IS LIKELY WITH LOWER VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN
FORECAST WITH SECOND WAVE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT/MORNING. LOW TUESDAY
EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/MORNING AND LOW DURING
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS
SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS
COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS.
THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS
EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS
LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST
AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET
TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW
WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 09Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE THIS. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARYCOLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS (MID MORNING HOURS). BEHIND THAT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT CIGS TO VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM
HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL
BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING.
THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER
THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ADVISORY
AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECASTED...BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS DOWN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
UPPER AND SFC TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SE
TONIGHT AND TUE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND ARE NOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO MORE NRN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
IN. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER SRN UPPER MI...DEPENDING
ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO AROUND
1000J/KG OF CAPE AROUND AROUND 20KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. USED A BLEND OF HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE FOG WILL BE PUSHED ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING IN UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO BE DONE BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DID LAG CLOUDS BACK FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLEARING IS OFTEN SLOWER
THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID
70S...WARMEST SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR
MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY
NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
UPPER AND SFC TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SE
TONIGHT AND TUE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND ARE NOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO MORE NRN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
IN. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER SRN UPPER MI...DEPENDING
ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO AROUND
1000J/KG OF CAPE AROUND AROUND 20KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. USED A BLEND OF HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE FOG WILL BE PUSHED ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING IN UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO BE DONE BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DID LAG CLOUDS BACK FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLEARING IS OFTEN SLOWER
THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID
70S...WARMEST SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE U.P. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN A FEW
DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE DEPARTING BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO LEAD TO ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA (TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL). WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...ALTHOUGH THEY
ARE VARYING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL TRY TO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER TIMING...MAINLY IN THE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD...WITH THE WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS
ARE INCONSISTENT ON THE SUBTLE FEATURES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT
5 DAYS OUT). OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
WARM/HUMID ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE MODELS ARE GIVING A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR WAVE EJECTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND POTENTIALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR
MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY
NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS
THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE
MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS
EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF
WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE
MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO
NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE
PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO
THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST
ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A
SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST
OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO
FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS
WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER CENTRAL NM...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK BTWN
THE CONT DVD AND THE AZ BORDER DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ACTIVITY
WILL REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN NM AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY LATE
MORNING THEN ADVANCE EAST ALONG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL ENHANCE -TSRA INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
BTWN 22-02Z...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO -SHRA DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT BY A TSRA TUESDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
REDUCE VSBY TO BLW 5SM WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 88 60 89 58 / 30 30 10 10
DULCE........................... 78 50 80 48 / 50 40 20 20
CUBA............................ 75 52 79 51 / 50 40 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 82 54 84 52 / 40 40 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 77 52 78 51 / 50 40 60 30
GRANTS.......................... 79 54 81 52 / 50 30 40 30
QUEMADO......................... 77 56 79 54 / 50 40 50 30
GLENWOOD........................ 86 56 83 57 / 30 40 40 40
CHAMA........................... 77 47 76 46 / 60 50 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 58 80 57 / 60 50 70 30
PECOS........................... 80 55 79 54 / 50 50 50 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 74 52 74 50 / 50 50 50 30
RED RIVER....................... 66 45 68 45 / 70 50 70 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 70 49 70 49 / 70 50 70 40
TAOS............................ 80 51 80 49 / 40 40 30 30
MORA............................ 79 53 75 52 / 50 50 60 30
ESPANOLA........................ 86 56 85 55 / 40 40 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 82 58 81 57 / 40 40 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 57 84 57 / 30 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 63 84 63 / 40 40 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 64 87 65 / 30 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 88 62 / 30 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 64 88 63 / 30 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 62 87 60 / 20 30 30 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 64 87 62 / 30 30 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 91 63 87 61 / 30 30 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 57 81 55 / 50 40 60 30
TIJERAS......................... 84 58 84 57 / 40 40 50 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 53 83 52 / 40 30 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 57 81 56 / 40 40 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 58 82 57 / 40 40 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 86 62 / 30 30 20 30
RUIDOSO......................... 80 59 78 58 / 40 30 50 30
CAPULIN......................... 82 56 80 57 / 40 30 40 20
RATON........................... 87 56 84 55 / 30 30 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 88 58 85 56 / 20 30 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 55 82 54 / 50 40 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 95 63 93 64 / 20 20 30 20
ROY............................. 90 60 88 60 / 20 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 97 66 96 67 / 10 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 65 93 66 / 10 20 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 67 98 68 / 10 20 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 97 65 95 66 / 5 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 98 67 96 67 / 5 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 66 94 67 / 10 20 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 100 67 97 68 / 5 10 10 20
PICACHO......................... 92 62 90 62 / 30 20 20 30
ELK............................. 85 60 83 59 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
NO CHANGES TO SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS MID PORTIONS OF CWA NEAR MORNING AND
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO
SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTN AND REALIZE THE WARMEST TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEST OF DEVILS
LAKE...WITH VERY LITTLE NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL
KEEP ISOLD STORMS IN ACROSS THE NORTH BUT REMOVE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER MAY SEE SOME INCREASE FROM
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SRN CANADA...AND BOTH NAM AND HRRR MIN TEMPS
WERE A BIT WARMER THAN PREV FCST SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED DID USE THE NAM12 AS A STARTING
POINT AND DROPPED THEM A COUPLE OF DEG TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. OVERALL MID 60S LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE EVENING CONVECTION. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING NW TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
WILL ADDRESS LOCALIZED CONVECTION WITH HIGHER POPS AND KEEP LOW
CHANCE ELSE WHERE. ALSO INCREASING POPS A BIT OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST OVER ROSEAU AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES. NON
SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER IS STILL HIGH (3 TO 4 UNITS) OVER
NORTHEAST ND AND HAVE HAD REPORTS OF WEAK FUNNELS OVER THE LAST
HOUR (NEAR WARROAD...A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHEST AFOREMENTIONED
VALUES...SO CONTINUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK FUNNELS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA.
THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE HOWEVER WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR STORMS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
REMAIN BLO SEVERE LIMITS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WEAK
FUNNELS WITH THESE STORMS AS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF
ROTATION AND WEAK FUNNELS. SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN FA SO A FEW STORMS COULD PULSE UP CLOSE TO SEVERE
LIMITS. WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 60S
AS DEWPOINTS HOLD UP.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND HOLDS INTO MID
WEEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWING WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSES WHICH MAY RIDE
THROUGH RIDGE. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TOMORROW
MAY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
A STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL
BUT WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF DAILY CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY
ZONAL OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS...ALTHOUGH NARROWING IN ON
THE BEST TIME FRAME IS DIFFICULT DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS. ALTHOUGH HAVE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS...PLENTY OF DRY HOURS
ARE EXPECTED. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND FROM DVL-GFK-BJI SHOULD INCREASE NEAR
MORNING HOURS AND LIFT OVER TVF BY NOONTIME...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO THE UPPER MVFR RANGE AT TVF AND BJI. WILL KEEP VFR
CIGS AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING AND GFSMOS...SHOWING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAKES THE MOST SENSE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RA OR
VCNTY TS AT THESE SITES AS WELL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WARMER
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
800 PM UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO LINE
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING POCKETS OF TREE
DAMAGE. COULDNT FIND ANY ASOS OR MESONETS IN OUR AREA THAT
RECORDED GUSTS PAST 48 MPH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EVEN THESE WINDS ARE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TOPPLE SOME TREES GIVEN HOW WET OUR SOILS ARE.
ALLOWED THE SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CLEANED UP THE PRODUCTS
TO REFLECT THIS.
CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. EVEN
AN INCH OF RAIN CAUSED PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW CREEKS
COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM TO SEE
JUST HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH S/W TROF INTERACTING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE NW TO
SE LLVL THETA E GRADIENT OVER THE OH VALLEY...GENERALLY JUST W OF
OUR CWA. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN HOW WORKED
OVER OUR AIRMASS IS...WOULD THINK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD
SNIFF OUT THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN C KY VS IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE TAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT
EVEN IT PUTS A HVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
ALLOWED HIGHER POPS TO WORK IN TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE REMAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING
IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES.
ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW
OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS
LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES
OF LATE. IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD
CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEEPING THIS SHORT...MOVING INTO FLOOD OPERATIONS AT THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF
CHANGE IN AIRMASS...READILY SEEN BY THE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED DRIER PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. 500MB
HEIGHTS TO CLIMB ABOUT 10DKM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD...SO WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. WET GROUND...WHICH WILL STILL BE WET
OVERALL LATE WEEK...WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON THE TEMPERATURES EVEN
THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 20C.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT...500MB FLOW WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL BY FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST
POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY
INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-13Z WITH
GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN...EXITING PKB AROUND 08Z
AND BKW AROUND 13Z. BEHIND THE COMPLEX...GENERAL MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY. AFTER 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT CLOUDS BY
AROUND 15Z. AFTER 20Z ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
ROLLING SOUTH THRU THE END OF PERIOD. BEHIND THIS COMPLEX GENERAL
MVFR CEILINGS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG OVERNIGHT MAY
VARY...AND TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE FASTER TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BE FASTER.
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY IFR
IN STRATUS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018-
024>029-033>038.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018-
024>029-033>038.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JB/MZ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
225 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINGERING STORMS ARE FIRING IN A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BEHIND THE
LARGE SWATH OF STORMS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR PORTSMOUTH AND WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND HAVE A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. MORE STORMS UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXISTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPSTREAM
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND MAY PERSIST AND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN A
STATE OF FLUX WITH HOW THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT
BUT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR MODEL.
IF THE LINE DEVELOPS...THE OVERNIGHT THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE A
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND COULD CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA. A DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT AND
HAVE ADDED SEVERE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AND HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...HWO...AND HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR 70.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR 100 ACROSS EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ATOP BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS WE/LL ACTUALLY GET A COUPLE OF
DAYS WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THOUGH IT
WOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE IF A LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL OHIO ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOL DAYS OF THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CLIMBING BY FRIDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY.
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON - BUT THE BULK
OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS FORCING IS WEAK. THE WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES
WASHING OUT A BIT. TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER THAN WE/VE SEEN
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SOME PRETTY STEAMY AIR COMES WITH IT - SO IT
WILL BE MUGGY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TROUGHING TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEEMS ENOUGH
THERE WITH THE WARM/MUGGY AIR THAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME ISOLATED STRAGGLERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AND THESE COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANG ON TO THUNDER
A LITTLE LONGER AT KCVG/KLUK AS THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
REDEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS COULD GET CLOSE
TO KCVG/KLUK IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WE SHOULD THEN GET INTO A PCPN
LULL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK SOME MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR TOWARD DAYBREAK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
206 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY. MORE DISTURBANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
800 PM UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO LINE
MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING POCKETS OF TREE
DAMAGE. COULDNT FIND ANY ASOS OR MESONETS IN OUR AREA THAT
RECORDED GUSTS PAST 48 MPH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EVEN THESE WINDS ARE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TOPPLE SOME TREES GIVEN HOW WET OUR SOILS ARE.
ALLOWED THE SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CLEANED UP THE PRODUCTS
TO REFLECT THIS.
CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. EVEN
AN INCH OF RAIN CAUSED PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW CREEKS
COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM TO SEE
JUST HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH S/W TROF INTERACTING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE NW TO
SE LLVL THETA E GRADIENT OVER THE OH VALLEY...GENERALLY JUST W OF
OUR CWA. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN HOW WORKED
OVER OUR AIRMASS IS...WOULD THINK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD
SNIFF OUT THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN C KY VS IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE TAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT
EVEN IT PUTS A HVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
ALLOWED HIGHER POPS TO WORK IN TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE REMAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING
IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES.
ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW
OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS
LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES
OF LATE. IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD
CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE EARLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH QPF NEARING
1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. COORDINATED WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRYER WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST
POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY
INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-13Z WITH
GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN...EXITING PKB AROUND 08Z
AND BKW AROUND 13Z. BEHIND THE COMPLEX...GENERAL MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY. AFTER 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT CLOUDS BY
AROUND 15Z. AFTER 20Z ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
ROLLING SOUTH THRU THE END OF PERIOD. BEHIND THIS COMPLEX GENERAL
MVFR CEILINGS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG OVERNIGHT MAY
VARY...AND TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE FASTER TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BE FASTER.
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY IFR
IN STRATUS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018-
024>029-033>038.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...MZ/26
LONG TERM...JB/MZ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
136 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE EARLIER...NEARLY SOLID LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
/WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/...HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO 2 OR
3 CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION /ONE ENTERING WARREN COUNTY...AND THE
SECOND/LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/.
BOTH AREAS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT/MID LEVEL VORT MAXES.
THESE POCKETS OF ENERGY /ABOVE A SLOWLY NEWD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT/ WILL LIKELY DRIFT ENE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS PWATS
INCREASE BY ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVERNIGHT /TO BETWEEN
1.5-1.75 INCHES/...SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...BEFORE REACHING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AFTER
08Z TUESDAY.
A MUCH MILDER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S REMAIN STEADY...OR SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 60F IN THE COLDEST
RURAL VALLEYS UP NORTH...TO ABOUT 66 OR 67F IN THE METRO AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES BRINGS A LOW AND SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL BE
SPLITTING THE STATE NW/SE EARLY...WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION
PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY /WITH MODELS INDICATING
THAT SOME SORT OF SECONDARY LOW WILL TRY TO FORM NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY LATE DAY/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD...GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J BY AFTERNOON. WIND
FIELDS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH PWATS QUICKLY SURGING UP OVER
1.5"...SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION COULD PRESENT LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS. WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .50" TO
1.00" POSSIBLE. DON/T PLAN ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...JUST
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IN OUR DISCUSSIONS AND MENTIONED SOME
TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/ZONES.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW MID JULY NORMALS IN NW HALF. HIGHS LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE LWR/MID 80S IN THE SE.
MAIN COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS CWA FROM GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT...BUT WEAK LOW ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND KEEPING MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH.
WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SE WITH LOWS HANGING NEAR
70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED "DEEP" SFC LOW ALONG
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NWRN
ONTARIO WILL MIGRATE EWD THRU QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST. CENTRAL PA
IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR
/JULY 11-20/.
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WED NGT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE DRY WX
DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A VERY LOW
RISK (20% OR LESS) OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ALLEGHENIES. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE NRN TIER LKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK TROUGHING LKLY ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS VERY
DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DWINDLING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MARYLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE KMDT AND KLNS 10-12Z. SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF KBFD WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS RESULTING FROM MOIST SOUTH-SERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS
KBFD IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDS. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT BRIEF IFR CONDS OVR MOST OTHER CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS...MAINLY
BTWN 06Z-12Z.
EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS TO LIFT BY LATE AM...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
THRU THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN.
HOWEVER...SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE PM
HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN SPOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MULTIPLE IMPULSES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...TEMPS ARE DROPPING A LITTLE BELOW THE FCST CURVE
ACROSS THE MTNS/FHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT THIS MORNING IN LEFTOVER MCS
COLD POOL INDUCED THETA/E AIR. OTHERWISE EXPECT PERSISTENT DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS TO SLOWLY WANE AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A SLOW DIURNAL TEMP
DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT UPDATE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RETURNS OVER
THE ERN PIEDMONT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS THERE...ELSEWHERE WILL
INTRODUCE A LOWERING POP TREND THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AS OF 1045 PM...THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE FOR ALL OUR ZONES.
OVERNIGHT...CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS
IL/IN...WHERE A DIGGING TROF IS INTERSECTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THESE STORMS
CONGEALING INTO ANOTHER MCS...AND TAKES THAT ACTIVITY SOUTH TO THE
TN/NC BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OTHER CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR
TREND...EXCEPT GENERALLY KEEP THE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST ACRS
CENTRAL KY/TN. THE 00Z NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR. GIVEN
THAT MOST OF THE UPSTREAM AIR HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THIS EVENING/S
MCS...I THINK THE HRRR IS NOT THE WAY TO GO...AND EXPECT ONLY A SLGT
CHC TO LOW-END CHC OF ANY CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWFA THRU EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SO I HAVE CUT BACK POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S.
THE FCST FOR TUESDAY LOOKS TO DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SECOND MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SUFFER DUE
DO EITHER ITS CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. HIRES GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE NC
ZONES BEING CONVECTION FREE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT MCS TRACK IS
PROGGED BEYOND THE PERIOD AND WILL BE AIDED BY THE PROGRESSION OF
THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE
CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PLACED
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST IN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNSTABLE/SHEARED AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OF 215 PM MONDAY...MAIN ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TUE
NIGHT WHEN A RATHER RARE JULY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEING DRIVEN BY A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SWINGING SE FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TUE
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS RATHER MUTED IN ITS QPF RESPONSE TUE NIGHT AS
IT LIMITS CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT.
THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH DEEP LAYER NW FLOW IN PLACE.
THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
NAM SOLUTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL INDEED BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS JUST SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS SURVIVING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WIND SHEAR
REMAINS ELEVATED.
AFTER THE BKN-SCT CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSES...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY WED. SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN LINE ON WED...AND SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WED SHOULD BE DRY THANKS
TO THE NW FLOW AND RESULTANT LOWER RH`S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT
A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER TO NEAR
CLIMO VALUES ON THU AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE NE/E.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM PLACING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TRACK BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND AND TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE SE STATES. IN
ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH A LEE TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. THIS SET UP IS FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH MONDAY AND SUGGESTS A MAINLY DIURNAL MODE TO THE CONVECTION
WHICH COMMENCES ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD ADVECT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE AFTERNOON
CONVEC...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VSBY ARND DAYBREAK AS
TDD/S ARE RUNNING ARND 3 F CURRENTLY AND PREVIOUS LIGHT PRECIP AT
THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL REMAIN MID TO HIGH LEVEL WITH SCT CU AND LOW
END GUSTS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON. PROB30 TSTM AFT 21Z STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE. WIND DIR MAY BE TRICKY WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLY
INTRODUCED LATE EVENING AHEAD OF WRN MCS. FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON
SYNOPTIC FLOW LIGHT NW/LY BEFORE 19Z...THEN BACKING SW/LY AS LEE TROF
DEVELOPS.
ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KGSP COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY ARND DAYBREAK
IN FAIRLY LOW TDD/S AND A MOIST SFC LAYER FROM EARLIER PRECIP. GOOD
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW LOW TO MODERATE GUSTS MOST SITES
ALIGNED SW/LY NON/MTNS AND UPVALLEY AT KAVL. PROB30 ALL SITES BY
LATER AFTERNOON AS CONVEC COULD DEVELOP ALONG OF APPROACHING MCS
OUTFLOWS AND WITHIN A DEVELOPING BROAD LEE TROF. TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDS IN SHRA/TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015
.UPDATE...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
PASS TUE AM SO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. NLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUE WITH THE
FLOW TO TURN ONSHORE OVER ERN WI. THE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WIND
SHIFT MAY SET OFF ISOLD SHOWERS OR TSTORMS BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE PCPN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TUE AM
WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS AT 3.5-5.0 KFT DEVELOPING BY LATE TUE AM INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN WI LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR TSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS TUE NT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
INSTABILITY IS ON THE RISE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER 2500 J/KG AND NO CIN PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS
AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP IN THAT AREA AS OF 20Z AS A SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR MODEL AND OTHER MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN AND
THEY HAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. ALL OF SOUTHERN WI IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THROUGH 02Z OR 9 PM.
THE HIGH CAPE FORECAST OF 3500-4500 J/KG /DEPENDING ON MODEL/ AND
HIGH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS SUPPORTS RAPID SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.
AFTER THESE STORMS ROLL THROUGH... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW CAPE AND LIGHT QPF... SO SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS THEY
COLLIDE WITH THAT WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE EXITS THE DAKOTAS
AND PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION WITH
MAINLY WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE UNTIL EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST. 700
MB DEWPOINTS ARE LOW...BUT BEGIN TO RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 850
MB TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE 850 MB RIDGE OVER
WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB DEWPOINTS DROP THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
A BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
700 MB DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECEDES TO THE EAST...A
RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SLOW TO RISE INITIALLY BUT THEN INCREASES
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ONE SHORTWAVE
EXITING WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS INTO
THE NORTHWEST U.S.
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF TO
LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE 00Z ECMWF PUSHES A MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA.
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF MOVES A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS
STILL HAS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY THEN FINALLY
KICKING OUT A SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
BOTH MODELS SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FEET ARE SPREADING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING DEWPOINT TEMPS AND
WSW WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST MN NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING
FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
558 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR HAS SHOWED
GREAT CONTINUITY WITH CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND 21Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE SHOWERS MAY NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH...HOWEVER DID INCLUDE VCTS AS FAR SOUTH AS
KLIT/KHOT/KADF...MAINLY AFTER 00Z
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT
TERM. VERY FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7
PM THIS EVENING.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST A
BIT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
TO ROTATE THROUGH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO MAINLY
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. RIDGE EXPANDS ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN SHUTTING OFF.
WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND...AREA WILL LIKELY NOT REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE CRITERIA WILL BE
MET ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS RIDGE GETS REESTABLISHED.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPS AND
WILL SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE NUMBERS PROVIDED.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO UPPER 90S. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. WHILE
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DID COME SLIGHTLY MORE IN LINE
THAN THE 12Z RUNS...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT YET
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 96 77 94 74 / 10 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 98 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 93 74 92 73 / 10 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 75 95 74 / 0 0 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 98 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 97 76 95 75 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 95 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 74 93 72 / 10 20 20 20
NEWPORT AR 98 77 94 74 / 10 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 97 75 95 74 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 98 76 95 75 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 96 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 10
STUTTGART AR 98 77 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. KEMX WSR-88D
COMP REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTED A CYCLONIC TWIST SUGGESTING
THE PRESENCE OF A MCV CENTERED OVER ERN COCHISE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT CLOUD TOPS WERE GENERALLY
WARMING DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS OVER CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS OF THIS
FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO GRADUALLY TAPER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ERODES AS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN TEXAS...
AND A TROUGH AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. HURRICANE DOLORES WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS CENTERED NEAR 17N/108W...OR
ABOUT 245 MILES SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AS PER THE 3 AM MDT
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE PLUME WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SE ARIZONA THRU FRI AS THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED VIA
THE 14/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE
WEST COAST.
THE RECENT 2-3 HRRR SOLUTIONS DEPICTED SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION TO
OCCUR EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/WRN COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 14/08Z HRRR
SUBSEQUENTLY DEPICTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY MID-
AFTERNOON TO BE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN COCHISE/CENTRAL GRAHAM
COUNTIES NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL
TRANSPIRE...WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY AND THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SERVING AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT 700-300 MB
WIND REGIME...SLOW EWD/NEWD STORM MOTIONS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXISTS ACROSS THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON. THIS GENERAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND TIMING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THRU FRI.
THEREAFTER...14/00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT RELATIVE TO
SOLUTIONS DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES INTO SE ARIZONA
STARTING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT-FRI...BUT ESPECIALLY FRI
NIGHT-SAT. THE GFS DEPICTS PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS
OF 2.00 INCHES TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY SAT MORNING.
THUS...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ACTUALLY BE GREATER SAT
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS VERSUS ERN LOCALES...AND THIS SCENARIO IS
DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES SUN FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD MON.
HIGH TEMPS INTO THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPS NEXT MON.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS GENERALLY AFTER
18Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL
PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY AROUND 35-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...
CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THIS
WEEKEND. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
OCCUR NEXT MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
822 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 822 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. LATEST HRRR KEEPS MOST
OF OUR AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH NOON. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS START
TO DEVELOP. HRRR ALSO SHOWS MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY 5-6 PM.
AT THE SURFACE HAVE A STALLED AND WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. ALOFT HEIGHTS WILL FALL TODAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE WEAK FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION SO THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. THIS
COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY.
THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER.
NOT EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECTING SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY
NIGHT.
IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT
FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
NORTHWARD...BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING AT KPSF/KPOU...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS
GENERALLY WILL BE VFR.
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TODAY. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT ANY POINT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT
THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE
DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO A N-NW DIRECTION BY LATE TONIGHT AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BDL
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. HI-
RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS.WENT A LITTLE WIDE WITH THE
PROB30 GROUP...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE 01Z TO 04Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST
SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50
GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50
ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40
VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
859 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND A
BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
FOR A BIT AS THEY SHIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAIN...AND FELT THAT
WARRANTED AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO KICK OFF ANOTHER DECENT ROUND THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
INCLUDING THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MAGIC VALLEY. WE DID
INCREASE CHANCES THERE FROM THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. STILL
LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN ISSUE. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...THE LATTER WHERE THE SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW BUT NOT NECESSARILY ZERO. KEYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR WEST KEEPING
SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND SHARP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HOLD ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME CELLS TO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BUILDS AND BY WEDNESDAY THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CURTAIL SOME
OF THE MOISTURE COMING INLAND. SO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AND A LITTLE DRIER. THAT ALSO MEANS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO MONTANA BY
THURSDAY AND PROCEEDS TO DEVELOP A NEW TROUGH OVER THIS AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DRIER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FOCUSES SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES STAY IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY LOW TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE VALLEYS.
RS
AVIATION...A PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE PAC NW WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET OFF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROF
WILL RESULT IN SOME TSTMS PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL THIS AFTN. HEDGES
FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNEDAY...BUT DIMINISHING BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY FALLING ON THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP INVERSION BASED JUST
UNDER 1K FT. ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON /JUST NORTH OF THE
THUMB/ LED TO A RAPID EXPANSION OF STRATUS FOLLOWING SUNRISE.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHOWERS ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ACROSS SE
MI TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER
MORNING INSOLATION SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR HAS LEAD TO SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY.
IN LIGHT OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS NOW BLANKETING THE AREA AND WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED /SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB/. THE ONLY OTHER
UPDATE WILL BE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND LOWER
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE 94 CORRIDOR AS CURRENT
TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK DESTABIIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 713 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AT SUNRISE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND PULL A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MVFR CEILING AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM PTK
SOUTHWARD WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AS THE FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. CEILING WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR POST FRONT
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT UNTIL SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
EVENING. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND VEERING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL
CONSIST OF DRY AIR FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE...BUT NE FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON ALWAYS REQUIRES WE MONITOR FOR MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU.
FOR DTW... MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN THE DTW AREA...ENOUGH FOR INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK
DIMINISHING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CEILING
LESS THAN 5000 FT WILL THEN BE THE ONLY CONCERN UNTIL POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHES OF STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE
STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO
ONTARIO.
EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED
CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO
OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE
HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING
DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE
AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND
UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE.
LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE
WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF
7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK.
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND
1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST
INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM
CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN
IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER
FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE
IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WITH N WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ADVECTING HIGH RH LOW LEVEL AIR INTO
UPPER MI IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AN UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS. THE STEADY NNE WIND WILL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER
MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AXIS OF SHOWERS NEAR LUDINGTON SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH AND RESULT IN
MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS
SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS
COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS.
THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS
EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS
LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST
AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET
TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW
WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
IFR LOOKS LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO KMKG THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MVFR IMPACTS. VFR WEATHER TO RETURN THIS
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPERE DRIES OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM
HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL
BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING.
THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER
THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ADVISORY
AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECASTED...BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS DOWN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
713 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AT SUNRISE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND PULL A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH SE
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MVFR CEILING AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM PTK
SOUTHWARD WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AS THE FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. CEILING WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR POST FRONT
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT UNTIL SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
EVENING. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND VEERING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL
CONSIST OF DRY AIR FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE...BUT NE FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON ALWAYS REQUIRES WE MONITOR FOR MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU.
FOR DTW... MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN THE DTW AREA...ENOUGH FOR INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK
DIMINISHING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CEILING
LESS THAN 5000 FT WILL THEN BE THE ONLY CONCERN UNTIL POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHES OF STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE
STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO
ONTARIO.
EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED
CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO
OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE
HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING
DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE
AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND
UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE.
LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE
WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF
7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK.
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND
1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST
INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM
CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN
IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER
FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE
IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
POCKETS OF SH/TS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. SH/TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING. GUP
AND EVENTUALLY FMN WOULD INITIALLY BE IMPACTED. EVENTUALLY AEG/ABQ
AND SAF SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. USING VCSH/VCTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE IMPACTS BUT COULD SEE SOME TEMPOS BEING USED IN
THE COMING HRS. LVS/TCC/ROW ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED ALTHOUGH USING VCSH TO INDICATE SOME IMPACTS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING
SIGNIFICANTLY. A WELL PLACED ALTHOUGH SHORT DURATION HEAVIER TS
WILL REDUCE CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORY TODAY.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE
MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS
EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF
WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE
MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO
NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE
PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO
THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST
ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A
SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST
OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO
FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS
WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...WITHERING AND FORMER UPSTREAM DERECHO IN
A WEAKENING PHASE...AND ENCROACHING CLOUD COVER MAY OFFSET SEVERE
THREAT TO SOME DEGREE AS ITS ARRIVAL INTO OUR ZONES PRECEDES THE
PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. FORWARD SPEED HOWEVER OF ANY CELLS COULD
STILL LEND TO STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUN
BAKING THE GROUND PRESENTLY ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC WILL HELP GIVE
RISE TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPES.
OUTFLOWS PRECEDING THE MAIN ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF I-95 THROUGH LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL NEAR TERM MODELS IN CONSENSUS BRING A BROKEN LINE OR
SQUALL LIKE FEATURE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY 19Z WITH SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY ALSO IN BLOOM ABOUT THAT TIME ACROSS OUR COASTAL
INTERIOR. TIMING OF THE ORGANIZED FEATURE REACHING THE COAST 22Z-
23Z/6PM-7PM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS UPDATE AND SPC RETAINS AN ENHANCED RISK
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OF CONCERN ARE CELL
MERGERS AS THE ORGANIZED LINE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE TO REACH 86-91 OVER NC AND 90-96 OVER SC. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FAR INLAND DUE TO ENCROACHING CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP
CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE
MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT
CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC
HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY
FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT
LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY...
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN
AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL
WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS AND INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED SFC
TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING
TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 7 FT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO
DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL
AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY
THE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME
TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE
FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING
SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...SRP/DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE PATTERN OF AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WELL OFFSHORE BEYOND
THE GULF STREAM WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG MCS CONTINUES TO WORK SSE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
MOST OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY MOSTLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE 3-KM HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY...LIKELY INVOLVED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AROUND
18Z-20Z NEAR THE COAST. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS. IF A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SOLAR HEATING OCCURS...FORECAST SOUNDING PARAMETERS ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER AND LI VALUES
AS LOW AS -8. MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT INLAND. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STRONG UPR SHRT WV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
AREA FROM NW TONIGHT....AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MCS COMING
ACROSS MTNS PRODUCING WDSPRD SVR THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING
WITH SEVERAL INDICATING MAIN ACTIVITY W AND SW OF ERN NC...THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS AT 50%. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
PROFILE...ENHANCED SVR THREAT IS WARRANTED FOR INLAND AREAS WITH
SLIGHT RISK REST OF AREA.
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN MID TO UPR 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...AN ACTIVE DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONG VORT CENTER PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING AND SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT 50%. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROF SETS
UP ONCE AGAIN ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. MAINLY
DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF TAF PERIOD
ALL SITES. LINE OF TSTMS IS MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WHILE MCS REMNANTS ARE TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS MTNS. SOME REMNANTS
MAY REACH COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SCT STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS PSBL TONIGHT AS
UPR LVL SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN UNTIL
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UPSTREAM LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SW
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH MUCH
HIGHER GUSTS PSBL IN STRONG TO SVR STORMS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...SCATTERED STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF AND END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS...NORTH
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY...NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND
MAINLY EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN INLAND TROUGH AND
HIGH OFFSHORE. GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED FOR SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND BY EVENING AND PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT. NWPS INITIALIZED ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH...THUS ADJUSTED
FCST TOWARD BLEND WITH WW3. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT OUTER
PORTIONS AND SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
BASED ON LATEST WAVE MODEL HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FEET NORTH OF OCRACOKE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE
THE HEADLINES FOR THIS WHEN CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LOOKING AT AN ACTIVE SEVERE WX DAY ACROSS
THE ILM CWA...MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHATS DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY ARE S/W TROFS/VORTS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THESE UPPER S/W TROFS ARE THE PRODUCT
OF UPSTREAM MCS/MCC. NEVERTHELESS...THE TIMING OF THEIR EVENTUAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA REMAINS THE PROBLEM CHILD. CURRENTLY...A S/W
TROF IS EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
REPRIEVE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER S/W TROF OR IN THIS CASE AN MCS CURRENTLY
OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY.
SPECIFICALLY...THE LATEST WRF INDICATES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE THE FA...TO OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID TO
LATE THIS EVENING. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
FAVORABLE SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC ILLUSTRATES THIS WELL IN OUTLINING AN
ENHANCED AREA ACROSS THE ILM CWA. WILL INDICATE SEVERE TSTM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN ALL PRODUCTS...AND PLACE AN EMPHASIS ON
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WET BULB ZEROS REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX TEMPS. COMPARING THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX ILLUSTRATES THAT AS HIGH AS 10 DEGREES
SEPARATE ONE ANOTHER. AGAIN PREFERRED THE COOLER NAM MOS GIVEN
WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY...OPAQUE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PCPN. THE
HIER MAXES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOW
TO MID 90S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR HIGHS. FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH MID 70S THRUOUT...EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP
CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE
MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT
CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC
HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY
FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT
LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY...
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN
AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL
WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS
AND INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED SFC
TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING
TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 7 FT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO
DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL
AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY
THE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME
TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE
FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING
SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
610 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...LOOKING AT AN ACTIVE SEVERE WX DAY ACROSS
THE ILM CWA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHATS
DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY ARE S/W TROFS/VORTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THESE UPPER S/W TROFS ARE THE PRODUCT OF
UPSTREAM MCS/MCC. NEVERTHELESS...THE TIMING OF THEIR EVENTUAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA REMAINS THE PROBLEM CHILD. CURRENTLY...A S/W
TROF IS EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
REPRIEVE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER S/W TROF OR IN THIS CASE AN MCS CURRENTLY
OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY.
SPECIFICALLY...THE LATEST WRF INDICATES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE THE FA...TO OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID TO
LATE THIS EVENING. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
FAVORABLE SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC ILLUSTRATES THIS WELL IN OUTLINING AN
ENHANCED AREA ACROSS THE ILM CWA. WILL INDICATE SEVERE TSTM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN ALL PRODUCTS...AND PLACE AN EMPHASIS ON
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. WET BULB ZEROS REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR LARGE HAIL.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX TEMPS. COMPARING THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ILLUSTRATES THAT AS HIGH AS 10
DEGREES SEPARATE ONE ANOTHER. AGAIN PREFERRED THE COOLER NAM MOS
GIVEN WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY...OPAQUE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PCPN.
THE HIER MAXES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE
LOW TO MID 90S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR HIGHS. FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH MID 70S THRUOUT...EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP
CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE
MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT
CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC
HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY
FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK
OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT
LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY...
THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN
AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL
WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR
ALL WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS AND
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS IS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED
SFC TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING
FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING
TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOCALLY PRODUCED
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND
PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY THE CHOPPY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME
TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE
FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING
SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.
STARTING TO GET T-STORM DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF DEVILS
LAKE...ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH
WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EAST OF A LANGDON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 30%-40%
RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. IN THE
WARM SECTOR TO THE WEST (MAINLY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA)...ANTICIPATE
MLCAPE TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30 KNTS). THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KNT JET STREAK.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD TO SCATTERED
(GIVEN LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE)...DO THINK THESE FACTORS ARE ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE STORMS (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS). ONLY MAJOR UPDATE WILL BE TO EXTEND AREA OF THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE WX STORY AND HWO (SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH THEIR MORNING UPDATE).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT WV
LOOP SHOWS SOME DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL RIDE OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC PATTERN IS VERY
WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM
INCOMING SHORTWAVES AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE...BUT SOME
STORMS PULSING UP ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CAM MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TO KEEP 20-40 POPS
GOING...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING TO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ALTHOUGH THE MODELS BRING
ANOTHER RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE IN...WITH VARIATIONS ON EXACT
TIMING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
MORE MOISTURE...AND CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 2000 J/KG. SHEAR
VALUES ARE AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS IN SOME PLACES AND SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A BIG EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HAVE POPS RAMPING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS HAVE THE MAIN RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...CLOUDS AND A TINY BIT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM REACHING 80...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MID 80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SOUTH WINDS AND LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD KEEP LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS
PERIOD...BUT THINK THAT BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MOIST AIR. THURSDAY
HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE AS PRECIP LIMITS HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT
STILL RATHER HUMID.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING
OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A TROF DIGGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...KEEPING MORE OF A SW FLOW REGIME OVER THE
AREA. VARIOUS IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THRU THE FLOW
BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA EACH DAY...AND ALSO KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE TAMPED DOWN A
BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ON THE WARM
SIDE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SOME SITES HAVE GONE DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORIES WITH VIS BETWEEN
3-5SM. THINK THIS WILL LAST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE ALL SITES
ARE MVFR AGAIN. THERE IS A BIT OF 1000 FT CIGS OUT OVER
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...BUT THINK IT WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR TAF SITES. OTHERWISE THE CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
908 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE
EAST. ELSEWHERE...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SPREAD AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST. POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06
UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL
LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK
SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY.
SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00
UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A
FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER
....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR
DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD
FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AFTER
PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER 00 UTC WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06
UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL
LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK
SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY.
SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00
UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A
FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER
....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR
DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD
FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AFTER
PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER 00 UTC WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
946 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST BY A DEGREE AND UPDATED
POPS TO INCLUDE 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE HRRR AS WELL AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WERE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE 14Z.
THE HRRR SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THAT
CHANCE IS SMALL.
AC/MD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF OK/N TX THRU TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS IN NW OK HAVE BEEN
AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM TSRA IN SW KS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING NEAR AND N OF KGAG-KPNC. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
S WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CHANGES IN SPEED
AND DIRECTION.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN KANSAS HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING CHANGEABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING IN THAT AREA...ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONDITIONS IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...SO OUR
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT 10 PERCENT THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF STORMS CAN
OVERCOME THE LACK OF SUPPORT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ITS SMALL MEANDERINGS WILL ALLOW MINOR DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MODEL DEW POINT FORECASTS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED
TO USE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...SINCE IT
APPEARS TO BE MORE REASONABLE THAN ANY AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SUPPORTS
RETAINING OUR HEAT ADVISORY...AND ADDING LOGAN AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES LESS HOT...AND PERHAPS A TAD LESS HUMID. ASSUMING THIS
HAPPENS...THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT TIME AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 101 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 71 99 72 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 99 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 98 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-
008-012-013-019-020-026.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-011-017-
018-024-025-027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
A WARM, MUGGY AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOWARD THE
AREA. MORNING CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MRX`S CWA. ACROSS MIDDLE TN AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A
WEAK SFC BASED CAP. BY 18Z 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH NO CIN REMAINING. STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE PLATEAU FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THEN
PUSHING SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE 12Z OHX RAOB INDICATED 40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL DESPITE A WARM
THERMAL PROFILE. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE CONDITIONAL ON
INTERACTIONS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT ONCE COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND LINE
SEGMENTS BECOME THE MODE OF CHOICE.
AS FAR AS THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE.
REAGAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 74 91 71 / 60 60 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 92 73 89 71 / 60 60 20 10
CROSSVILLE 86 70 84 67 / 60 60 20 10
COLUMBIA 94 74 93 71 / 60 60 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 95 73 93 71 / 60 60 30 10
WAVERLY 93 74 91 71 / 60 60 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
TODAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LK MI WITH
SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS/FRONTS AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WV IMAGERY SHOWED ONE LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE PLUS A
REMAINING MLCAPE AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG ALLOWING FOR SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO LINGER FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
THESE SLOWLY WANING AND EXITING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. ELSEWHERE...
CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AXIS ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW. EARLY
MORNING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAINED WARM...IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S...ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.
NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 14.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS IN
GOOD/TIGHT AGREEMENT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EAST THIS MORNING
AND HGTS RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. TREND
FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THE RISING HGTS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT BUT RIDGING ALOFT STILL BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS BY 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...FORCING SIGNALS ARE WEAK TODAY...WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE AXIS GENERALLY WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES SOUTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING AND DEEPER NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND IT. DEW
POINTS ARE PROGGED TO HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S TODAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG OF SB/MU CAPE. MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH
PART OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO ROTATE SOUTH/WEST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A WEAK SFC-850MB TROUGH FRONT AS WELL. WILL LEAVE A 20
PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/
DRYING BEHIND THE SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY WIN OUT AND DIURNAL
HEATING WANES. DRY/QUIET TONIGHT AS WEAK BUBBLE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND HGTS RISE ALOFT. 925-
850MB TEMPS COOL TODAY...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO ABOUT
850MB. MIXED 925-850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-MID
80S TODAY. COOLER/DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH LOWS OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI LOOKING TO DIP TO AROUND 50. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY THEN TRENDED TOWARD COOLER
OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATER
WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
14.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE WED...THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION WED NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR A LEAST A COUPLE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU/THU NIGHT. TREND
TENDS TO FAVOR STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE
SHORTWAVES LATER WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS THEY APPROACH/MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.
SOME SIGNAL FOR SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO ALREADY RETURN TO THE WEST END
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GFS/CAN-GEM APPEAR
WAY TO FAST WITH THIS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OVER
WESTERN MN/IA AT 00Z THU AND THE MOISTURE/CAPE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AXES ALL REMAIN WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT WED DRY. MOISTURE/CAPE
AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DO ALL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST
INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT.
THIS WITH INCREASE LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SFC-700MB TROUGH/FRONT...AND UNDER FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE SHORTWAVES. CONTINUED TREND
OF SPREADING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER ROUGHLY THE WEST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...THEN 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THU. CONTINUED 40-60 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU
NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WOULD PUSH EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THU/THU EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 2
INCH RANGE AND CAPE/DEEPER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...
WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 14.00Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR RISING
HGTS OVER THE REGION FRI/SAT. HOWEVER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS/NORTHERN ROCKIES THESE DAYS AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST BY FRI NIGHT SAT. BY SAT NIGHT/SUN
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT/MON. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY FRI
AND ESPECIALLY BY SUN/MON...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE
FRI-MON PERIOD IS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE.
HGTS LOOKING TO RISE FRI...BUT FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH MODELS
TRYING TO RIPPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES THRU THE FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY TO BE IN THE AREA AS WELL. WOULD THINK IN THE WAKE OF
THE THU SYSTEM FRI WOULD BE DRY...BUT CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA NOT UNREASONABLE. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...
WITH A NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION FRI NIGHT. ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT LOOK
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON...AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. MESO-SCALE DETAILS OF SHORTWAVES AND
LOW LEVEL/SFC TROUGHS/FRONTS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN IN THE DAY 6/7
TIME-FRAME...BUT WILL PLAY ROLES IN LOCATION/TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES. SOME OF THE PERIODS FROM FRI THRU MON WILL END UP DRY. T
GIVEN THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7
PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME. WITH
THE HIGHER HGTS AND PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL
FLOW...WARMER AIR IS PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR DAYS 4-7 LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING
AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THESE TO BECOME A CEILING BY LATE MORNING...BUT THE TRENDS IN THE
14.06Z NAM AND 14.09Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN DRIER SO
WILL STICK WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. THUS...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
917 AM MST TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING ON THE FORECAST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS
HELPING KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. SHOWER FREE ELSEWHERE SO FAR. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE THOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE HELP OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO
HANDLE THINGS WELL SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS GENERALLY AFTER
18Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL
PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY AROUND 35-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...
CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THIS
WEEKEND. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
OCCUR NEXT MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NERN TEXAS... AND A TROUGH AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST.
HURRICANE DOLORES WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS
CENTERED NEAR 17N/108W...OR ABOUT 245 MILES SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO AS PER THE 3 AM MDT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE ARIZONA THRU FRI
AS THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED VIA THE 14/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
THE RECENT 2-3 HRRR SOLUTIONS DEPICTED SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION TO
OCCUR EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/WRN COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 14/08Z HRRR
SUBSEQUENTLY DEPICTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY MID-
AFTERNOON TO BE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN COCHISE/CENTRAL GRAHAM
COUNTIES NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL
TRANSPIRE...WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY AND THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SERVING AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT 700-300 MB
WIND REGIME...SLOW EWD/NEWD STORM MOTIONS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXISTS ACROSS THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON. THIS GENERAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND TIMING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THRU FRI.
THEREAFTER...14/00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT RELATIVE TO
SOLUTIONS DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES INTO SE ARIZONA
STARTING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT-FRI...BUT ESPECIALLY FRI
NIGHT-SAT. THE GFS DEPICTS PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS
OF 2.00 INCHES TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY SAT MORNING.
THUS...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ACTUALLY BE GREATER SAT
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS VERSUS ERN LOCALES...AND THIS SCENARIO IS
DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES SUN FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD MON.
HIGH TEMPS INTO THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPS NEXT MON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER TX THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOIST SSW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
COLORADO. LOWER LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOISTEN TODAY...AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...CAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...WHILE CAPE OVER
THE PLAINS ALONG THE NM AND KS BORDERS EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG. RELATIVE
MIN IN THE INSTABILITY FIELD LIES OVER EL PASO/PUEBLO/CROWLEY/OTERO
COUNTIES...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LEADING TO CAPES GENERALLY IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE.
CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE SO FAR TODAY HAS THUS BEEN HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...AND WITH WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY...APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...AS 0-6KM SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS
STRONGEST UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH OVER SERN
AZ...STREAM OF WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST PLUME WILL
CONTINUE PUSH OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING PAST SUNSET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE KS
BORDER. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH MAIN CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING PUSHING INTO KS TOWARD
06Z...WITH HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY AREA OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST STORMS WILL
THEN FADE AWAY BY EARLY WED MORNING...THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MINS RATHER MILD.
ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DON`T CHANGE
VERY MUCH...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
MOST HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING WEAKLY
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
CONVECTION...THOUGH EXPECT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE
AS SURFACE LAYER DRIES. MAX TEMPS DRIFT DOWNWARD JUST SLIGHTLY WED
AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL...THOUGH READINGS MOST LOCATIONS WILL END UP
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF TUESDAY`S READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SOMETHING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACK IT EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND OTHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ELEVATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STRONG STORMS EXIST. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER
TEXAS AND A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MODEST STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP PUSH
THIS ACTIVITY OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS RETROGRADE THE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST EJECT TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE DRYING OUT TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF FLOODING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE ECMWF
IS MUCH DRIER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE MAIN ENERGY TRACK TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY POTENTIALLY BEING WET ACROSS THE AREA. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z-
04Z. CONVECTION THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO KS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25 BY
EARLY WED MORNING. WITH WEAK N-NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB...WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MCS
OUTFLOW LATE TONIGHT COULD PUSH CLOUDS BACK FARTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED. ON WED...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...WITH TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVELS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE PLAINS WED...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
WEAKER STORMS BUT STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THU
AND FRI. WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND BUT ALSO THE RISK
OF SCATTERED T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
NOTICED THAT THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER
SUNSET SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DRY POCKET IS PUNCHING THROUGH NJ
AND PA DEVELOPING A FEW STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT EVOLVES AND IF IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE BULLISH OF
THE MESO GUIDANCE KEEPING SHOWERY ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
WHILE THE HI-RES ARW/NMM DISSIPATE IT. BECAUSE OF THE SOUPY NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT...KEPT ISO
MENTIONING OVERNIGHT.
LASTLY BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FOG UPSTREAM. HOWEVER WE
ARE STILL IN AT 70+ DEWPOINT AIRMASS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP FOG AT
A MINIMUM AND FOCUS MORE ON THE STRATUS POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG...BUT KEPT VSBYS ABOVE
1-2SM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT...
BEHIND DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH SOME WEAK BUT BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HUMID AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S
WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND WARM CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING WEDNESDAY***
WEDNESDAY...
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY MID JULY STANDARDS MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST MODEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FRONTAL SCALE
FORCING WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WARM SECTOR
REGION WILL LIKELY NOT ENTER OUR AREA. THUS ANY INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH A
LOW RISK OF BRIEF LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY MUCH OF THE DAY BUT TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER LATE
IN THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
WITH NE WINDS INCREASING.
WED NIGHT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LINGERS DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY UP TO 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COURTSEY OF 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH ENTERING SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND MODEST FRONTAL WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND COOLER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
* WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...HAVE A LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR PATTERNS. DOMINATE TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST TURNS MORE ZONAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
WESTWARD AS CANADIAN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PUTS THE REGION INTO A DOMINATE SOUTHWEST PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK BEFORE THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TO START BUT WILL MODERATE TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEK. COULD SEE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DAILIES...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AS SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SNE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL BE GUSTY TO START DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.
NE WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP COASTAL ZONE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...PERHAPS INTO THE LOW 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S.
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY
MIX DOWN AROUND 50-55F...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DECOUPLE AND LOWS
DROPPING AROUND 55F IN THE NW. A FEW OTHER SITES MAY RADIATE
OUT...DEF AN OPEN YOUR WINDOWS TYPE OF NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BE WARMER. HIGHS WILL REACH IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. MAY FEEL WARMER THANKS TO FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. A
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AS A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH. A FEW SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND...JUST A MATTER OF TIMING AND WHERE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN SEVERE WEATHER
AS HEIGHTS REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM. HOWEVER
PWATS DUE INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THIS IS STILL 5-6 DAYS
OUT.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THANKS TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND TEMPS ALOFT WARMING CLOSE TO 16C.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOW CONFIDENCE ESP ON TIMING AS THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED VS THE
PROGRESSIVE GFS. REGARDLESS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE THING TO
NOTICE IS THE INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SO
ANTICIPATE A MODERATING TEMP TREND BACK TO AVERAGE OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVG THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS
EVENING BUT INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO WED/WED NIGHT.
AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET AND
ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER. VFR TO START THE EVENING BUT SLIPPING TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD
MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. MARGINAL VFR/MVFR.
WED NIGHT...SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
DURING THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST
WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS!
KBOS TERMINAL...INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z AND
ESPECIALLY WED AND WED NIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z AND
ESPECIALLY WED AND WED NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU THROUGH FRIDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
APPROACH 20-25 KT ON THU...SEA BREEZES LIKELY WITH WEAKER FLOW
ELSEWHERE FRI.
SAT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE SCT
MVFR IN ISO -SHRA/-TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** NEAR GALE FORCE NE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU
MORNING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS ***
TONIGHT...MODEST SE WINDS CONTINUE AND BECOME SOUTH LATE. 3 TO 5
FT SE SWELLS FROM CLAUDETTE CONTINUE TO ENTER THE WATERS. VSBY
LIMITED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...T-STORMS AND FOG.
WED...SHOWERS...T-STORMS AND FOG LIMIT VSBY. SHOWERS MORE
WIDESPREAD WED THAN TODAY. SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
WED NIGHT...FRONTAL WAVE EXITS INTO GEORGES BANK AND COMBINES WITH
1020 MB HIGH ENTERING QUEBEC FOR NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS 10 PM WED UNTIL
ABOUT 10 AM THU.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SCA
MAY NEED TO LINGER A TAD LONGER ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRES.
SAT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. GOOD BOATING WEATHER TO
START. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15KTS ON SAT
AND SUN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5FT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ231-233>235-237-250-251-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH REGION TOWARD
DAYBREAK. A WAVE MIGHT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT SLOWING IT DOWN TO OUR
SOUTH. MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE ENCROACHING ON OUR AREA FROM THE
WEST...SOUTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 PM...HEADING NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER SCATTERED BATCH OF MAINLY SHOWERS WAS WORKING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
BY 600 PM IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL COVER MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POSSIBLY
EAST AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL MIGHT BE IN THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER 600 PM.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPWARD MOTION.
IN ADDITION A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...JUST PASSING NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.
MESO-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY SINCE IT IS REALLY
NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY IN OUR REGION...BUT IT WAS LIMITED...
GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY "TALL" THUNDER BUT
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5+ SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 COULD CREEP INTO OUR REGION TOWARD EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED TO THE MID 80S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE HAD
TO BUMP UP HIGHS THERE. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...75-80 FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WERE CREEPING UP THROUGH THE 60S.
SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE. WHILE SOME PLACES WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL...THOSE THAT
DO COULD HAVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LATER THIS EVENING THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER LULL IN ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN
WESTERN NEW YORK EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER (AND WE THINK IT WILL)...
IT WOULD REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FWA
BY DAYBREAK.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK
PARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH
OF I-90. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGHT LAG A LITTLE
BEHIND...KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED INITIALLY...EVEN NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE DAY WILL START WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NORTH...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH STILL THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MIDDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS...REACHING
IN THE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT MIGHT REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM IN
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND LOTS OF CLOUDS TOMORROW...IT WILL TURN
NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE KICKING
IN. WHILE NOT GOING AS LOW AS THE MET GUIDANCE WE ACTUALLY SIDED A
LITTLE MORE WITH IT...THAN THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS. THAT MEANS HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND 70 IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES (DESPITE SEEING SOME
CLEARING EARLIER)...MID 70S CAPITAL REGION AND NEAR 80 SOUTH WHERE
THE FRONT AGAIN WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO PLUNGE TO
THE 40S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON...50S LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. TO THE SOUTH...DEWPOINTS STARTING OUT NEAR 70...WILL
BE TRIMMED BACK TO THE 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN AROUND 10 MPH...BUT COULD GUST OVER
20 MPH AT TIMES.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK IN
EVERYWHERE...CLEARING THE SKY AND MAKING FOR A REFRESHINGLY COOLER
NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH A FEW CU FORMING. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE SUNNY WITH RATHER LOW HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S) AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS AGAIN LOWER TO
MID 50S ALBANY SOUTH...MID TO UPPER 40S MOST OTHER AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WORK WEEK...AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
NEAR TX...AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HAVE FLAT RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT AS
WE ENTER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN DAY...AND INTO THE
NIGHT PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORM INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE FIRST WEAK SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SFC DEWPTS MAY GET WELL INTO THE 60S. MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY MAY SET UP OVER THE FCST AREA IF
ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. THE LATEST GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
FROM ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD BY 00Z/SUN. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS MAY RISE
A STANDARD DEVIATION OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. THE WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST...AND THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR THE FCST AREA.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/SOUTHEAST MAY AMPLIFY A BIT AS WE CLOSE THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE OLD COLD FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH AND EAST OF UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AS A WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A
RELATIVELY DRY SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/CMC/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE
INDICATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WAS KEPT IN THE
FCST TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TEMPS MAY NUDGE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AS
A STICKY AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE FCST AREA.
MONDAY MAY FEATURE AIR MASS OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT MAY NOT
BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND S-CNTRL ONTARIO MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH.
SOME HEAVY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS
POTENTIALLY 1-2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ON THE GEFS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS AND LOWS STILL LOOK A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE FOR THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND KALB.
WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT
THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS
COVERED IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR MORE...WHILE SOME AREAS LOCALLY RECEIVING UP TO
AN INCH OR MORE.
A COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD LATER
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY...TRENDING TOWARD SEASONAL ON FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE
FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...
BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH.
WITH PWATS MAXING OUT BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS PERHAPS EVEN SOME URBAN FLOODING.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SND/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
229 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
SHOWERS TO NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS NOW LIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY IN THE CT RVR VLY. ELSEWHERE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AS SEEN ON SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE WITH LOWER K INDICES OVER RI AND
EASTERN MA.
NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION OVER NYC AREA AND LONG ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY NONE OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES ARW/NMM/RAP AND HRRR ARE
SIMULATING THIS VERY WELL. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THINKING IS
THAT TOWARD SUNSET AND ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WARM AND MUGGY WITH
TEMPS IN THE U70S TO L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY***
TONIGHT...
BULK OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. LOWER CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCALES...BUT AREAL EXTENT
UNCERTAIN. WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...INSTABILITY BURST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WED.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS BY 12Z AS SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...EARLY WED MORNING
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE WED AM RUSH HOUR.
WEDNESDAY...
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DO AFFECT OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES
EARLY WED MORNING. EITHER WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN WEAK WIND
FIELDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STREET FLOODING
WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD EVENT...IF ANY ACTIVITY TRAINS OVER A PARTICULAR
LOCATION ESPECIALLY IN AN URBANIZED LOCATION. HIGH TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER RIDGES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN USA. ON THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE SCALE...THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION INTO A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVES IN
THE WESTERN USA TO RACE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE IN PARTICULAR MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUFFICIENT SIMILARITY TO GO WITH A BLEND OF LONG RANGE GUIDENCE.
WOULD EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HEIGHTS THEN BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLE OR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY. LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY EARLY
AT NIGHT OVER CT-RI-EASTERN MASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.9 INCHES IN THIS SAME AREA...SO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ALL OF THIS MOVES
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLEARING AT ALL LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH IS INITIALLY
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING A
NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE CT VALLEY. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEA
BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE LIGHT FLOW.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THURSDAY FAVOR MAX SFC TEMPS
AROUND 80. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THIS. MIXING TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW MOVES THROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRAW UPON SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DRAW
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES INTO NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
MOST INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST IN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AND
INCHES INTO WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...NOT A WASHOUT BUT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS. WE WILL FOLLOW LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH
HIGHEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY AND WESTERN HILLS.
MONDAY... NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND STARTS TO RUN
INTO THE BUILDING EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST USA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 2 INCHES. CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS
EVENING BUT INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO WED/WED NIGHT.
230 PM UPDATE...
THRU 00Z...SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOCUSED IN THE CT RVR VLY AND THE
SOUTH COAST. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET AND
ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER. VFR TO START THE EVENING BUT SLIPPING TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD
MORNING.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. MARGINAL VFR/MVFR.
WED NIGHT...SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
DURING THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST
WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS!
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING BUT HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WED AND WED NIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING BUT HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WED AND WED NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A BOSTON-HARTFORD
LINE. ALL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT/04Z.
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR AFTER THAT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALL AREAS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
FRIDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN WESTERN MASS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE PASSING OVER 300
MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO
NOVA SCOTIA WED MORNING. IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WATERS
AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS REDUCING VISIBILITIES
FOR MARINERS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
RESULT IN SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS BUILDING TO BETWEEN
3 AND 6 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. OTHER CONCERNS
FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS
AND SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS FAIRLY DEVOID OF SHOWERS...
EXCEPT A FEW OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY. THERE WAS A PRETTY GOOD CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY HEADING TOWARD HERKIMER COUNTY...
LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THAT COUNTY BEFORE 400 PM. IF THAT BATCH HOLDS
TOGETHER AND DOES NOT CHANGE MOVEMENT...IT WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY THROUGH ABOUT 6-7 PM.
THERE WAS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF DUTCHESS COUNTY THAT MIGHT IMPACT
THAT COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD THROUGH 4-5 PM...ON A SCATTERED BASIS.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPWARD MOTION. IN ADDITION THERE WAS
A WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR NEW YORK CITY...A WAVE RIDING ALONG FURTHER WEST...AND
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MESO-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY SINCE IT IS REALLY
NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY IN OUR REGION...BUT IT WAS LIMITED...
GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY "TALL" THUNDER BUT
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5+ SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COULD CREEP INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD EVENING.
LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURE ALONE. THEY WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY
NIGHT.
IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT
FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER TODAY. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND
KALB.
WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT
THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS
COVERED IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM...UPDATE MAINLY TO COVER RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. ALSO UPDATED CLOUD COVER...POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS. CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO INCREASE BUT MOST OF AREA
STILL RAIN FREE. LARGEST AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN NOW
JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO NEW YORK. THIS MAY REACH WESTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST ARE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WHERE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE WEAK FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION SO THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. THIS
COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
NOT EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER.
EXPECTING SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY
NIGHT.
IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT
FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER TODAY. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND
KALB.
WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE
HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT
THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS
COVERED IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STORING UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS
OF STORMS EFFECTING THE AREA... ONE ONGOING AS STORMS LEFT OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX NOW PUSHING INTO NE GA. THESE STORMS
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON OR SO BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA JUST FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON
LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS
NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALL OF THESE STORMS CLOSELY
WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTING...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED BRIEF FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD
MONITOR RADAR AND FORECAST CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BDL
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING ACROSS
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z-05Z WED... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPING AROUND THE AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THAT TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPO 20-24Z FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION... AND
PREVAILING -TSRA 00-03Z WED TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED STORM COMPLEX
LATER THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY
05-06Z WED... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15-
20KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
/39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50
GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50
ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40
VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STORING UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS
OF STORMS EFFECTING THE AREA... ONE ONGOING AS STORMS LEFT OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX NOW PUSHING INTO NE GA. THESE STORMS
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON OR SO BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA JUST FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON
LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS
NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALL OF THESE STORMS CLOSELY
WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTING...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED BRIEF FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD
MONITOR RADAR AND FORECAST CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BDL
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. HI-
RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS.WENT A LITTLE WIDE WITH THE
PROB30 GROUP...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE 01Z TO 04Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST
SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10
ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50
GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50
ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40
VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL QUIET DOWN FOR MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT TONIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED BY THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PIVOTING AWAY AND DIURNAL HEATING. AFTER ABOUT
02Z-03Z EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE NORTH FLOW SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY
MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MAIN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
SOLID LOW LEVEL JET IS POISED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FORECASTING A LLJ OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS NOTED IN ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...SO EXPECTING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE CHANCES
ARE A BIT TOUGHER TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN THE STORMS WILL BE ROLLING IN
AFTER DARK WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE SYSTEM DOES
HAVE MULTIPLE FACTORS THAT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS
THOUGH...NAMELY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LOW LEVEL JET OVER 30
KNOTS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AS IT COMES INTO THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS TEMPORAL WINDOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW HOT IT GETS AND
WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. WHILE H8 TEMPS
AROUND 20C CERTAINLY SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY... CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION COULD HOLD DOWN TEMPS SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S.
THE UPPER PATTERN WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS OCCASIONAL
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH AND THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL MCS ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL SVR WX THREAT.
IT APPEARS TO COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THE LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS DRY
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP
SHOWS THE CLEARING NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE HEADING SOUTHWARD AS
OF 22Z. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THE CLEARING WILL REACH
I-96 AROUND 06Z AND BE SOUTH OF I-94 BY 09Z. FROM THEN THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MAINTAINED THE MARINE HEADLINES AS IS...SO BOTH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 800AM
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES ARE RAMPING UP ON THE LAKE...WITH 4
FOOTERS HAVING ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH THE LUDINGTON AND PORT
SHELDON BUOYS. THE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE PROGRESSING DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE OVER TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK THIS
EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE WIND IS FORECAST TO AFFECT LAKE MICHIGAN
AT THAT TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUITE A BIT OVER NIGHT WITH
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS WED/THURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
RIVER LEVELS ARE INCREASING DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN
MONDAY. AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL
INCHES AND COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL SITES REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043-
050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMES
BAY)...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND A FEW 80S OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL EJECT OUT THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH OTHERS TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST FORCING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE (SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION) LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT (NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACK). WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA BUT STILL SHOW
CHANCES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF THE U.P. OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...MUCAPE VALUES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOT
SEEING TOO MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH
AND WILL CAP THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE AREAS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND NOSE OF INSTABILITY
OUT AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND REMAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WARM DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. AS MIXING WILL OCCUR UP TO 800MB (TEMPS
THERE AROUND 15-18C). THAT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY
SUPERIOR.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NW CONUS WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ON SATURDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A TRANSITION TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
N WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE ANY REMAINING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER
MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE
SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F
NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT
PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT
WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN
WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY
CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS
A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR
15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME.
THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED
BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400
J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/.
EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE
500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE
GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
N WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE ANY REMAINING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER
MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
104 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND A SFC LOW NOW OVER THE
ERN THUMB HAS LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
STRATO CU. DIURNAL HEATING HAS LIFTED INVERSION HEIGHTS A
BIT...WHICH HAS LED TO A FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM MVFR TO VFR /WITH SOME IFR IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/. THIS FLUCTUATION IN CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TERMINALS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME EXPANSION OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN
ABRUPT CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
FOR DTW...THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS AND REGION OF THUNDERSTORMS SET
UP SOUTH OF TOLEDO TODAY. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL IS LOW. THE REGION OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR AND INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
UPDATE...
THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP INVERSION BASED JUST
UNDER 1K FT. ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON /JUST NORTH OF THE
THUMB/ LED TO A RAPID EXPANSION OF STRATUS FOLLOWING SUNRISE.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHOWERS ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ACROSS SE
MI TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER
MORNING INSOLATION SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR HAS LEAD TO SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY.
IN LIGHT OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS NOW BLANKETING THE AREA AND WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED /SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB/. THE ONLY OTHER
UPDATE WILL BE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND LOWER
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE 94 CORRIDOR AS CURRENT
TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK DESTABIIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE
STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO
ONTARIO.
EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED
CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE
WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO
OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL
UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE
HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING
DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE
AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND
UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE.
LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE
WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF
7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK.
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND
1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST
INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM
CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN
IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER
FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE
IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AXIS OF SHOWERS NEAR LUDINGTON SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH AND RESULT IN
MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE
DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS
SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS
COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS.
THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS
EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS
LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST
AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET
TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW
WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
IFR LOOKS LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO KMKG THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MVFR IMPACTS. VFR WEATHER TO RETURN THIS
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPERE DRIES OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM
HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL
BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING.
THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER
THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
RIVER LEVELS ARE INCREASING DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN
MONDAY. AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL
INCHES AND COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL SITES REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THE FIRST ROUND ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL
SOON IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE SECOND CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
AHEAD OF THIS...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE RIDGE AXIS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
CAM`S BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
EVENING BUT GENERAL FEELING IS THAT THEY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
CONTINUE EAST AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CWA.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN STRONG WAA
REGIME AIDED BY NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY EXIT THE AREA
BY NOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...BUT WILL BE
ELEVATED.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA BY PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SECOND ABOVE
MENTIONED PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON SPEED OF EXITING MORNING TSTMS...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK HEATING. STRONG BULK
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
INTITIALLY...WITH A TORNADIC THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WITH PW`S AOA 2.00". MUCH OF THE CWA IS OUTLOOKED IN
THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FEEL THIS IS QUITE
REASONABLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING IT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
MODEST WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF THESE WAVES IN THE
LONG TERM...BUT CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT TSTMS IN ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. WILL CARRY A LOW CONFIDENCE SMALL POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENTER LATER PERIODS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BEGINNING ABOUT 11Z AT KOFK...13Z AT KLNK AND 14Z AT
KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECAST...
FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. KTCC AND
KROW WILL LIKELY BE LEFT-OUT AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY STORMS LATER TODAY
ARE KGUP...KAEG...KFMN...KABQ AND KSAF...IN THAT ORDER. MVFR
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS...BUT SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ BETWEEN 22-02Z.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE
MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS
EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF
WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE
MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO
NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE
PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO
THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST
ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A
SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST
OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO
FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS
WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
639 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 PM TUE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL OFF THE
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
CONTINUING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TIME OF
ARRIVAL TOOL SHOWS IT INTO WESTERN SECTION OF FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF DIMINISH THIS COMPLEX. WILL LOWER POPS
FOR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT KEEP THEM IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...EXPECT
A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
DEWPOINTS ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER. TEMPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WITH 30 PCT
INLAND AND 20 PCT COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED WITH A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 87
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TO 91 INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING OFF EARLY THU. THOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SFC TROUGHING INLAND AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. HEIGHTS BUILD WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING TO 20-22C...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/90 ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MON/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 631 PM TUESDAY.VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING THIS
COMPLEX DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES. HOWEVER DONT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF NO THREAT SO WILL CARRY VCTS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT WEDNESDAY SO ONLY
EXPECTING MINIMAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...PRED
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NNE. DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 638 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS 5
TO 8 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND SEAS 4-6FT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU...MAINLY 10-20KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 6FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH N/NE FLOW. GRADIENT RELAXES
THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT WITH VEERING WINDS AOB 10KT. SW FLOW
10-15KT RETURNS SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY SO FAR TODAY...WITH A FEW
STORMS TO OUR SOUTH NEAR WILMINGTON AND NORTH OF THE OUTER BANKS.
THINK MAIN TRIGGER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS
INDUCING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OHIO THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY
BLOWING UP NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS AND HAVE
CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS
COMING IN THE LATE EVENING INTO THE POST- MIDNIGHT HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. SOME THREAT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...EXPECT
A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
DEWPOINTS ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER. TEMPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WITH 30 PCT
INLAND AND 20 PCT COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED WITH A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 87
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TO 91 INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING OFF EARLY THU. THOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SFC TROUGHING INLAND AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. HEIGHTS BUILD WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING TO 20-22C...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/90 ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MON/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL FORECAST VCTS WITH LOWER VSBY FROM ROUGHLY
08Z TO 12Z. SUBSIDENCE AGAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS WED
NIGHT AND EARLY THU...WITH WINDS BECOMING NNE. DIURNAL CONVECTION
CHANCES INCREASE SAT AND SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ALREADY
SEEING GUSTS INTO THE MID-20S AT DIAMOND BUOY AND OREGON INET.
WAVE MODELS SHOWING SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 8 FEET LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND SEAS 4-6FT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU...MAINLY 10-20KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 6FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH N/NE FLOW. GRADIENT RELAXES
THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT WITH VEERING WINDS AOB 10KT. SW FLOW
10-15KT RETURNS SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE PATTERN OF AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED
POPS A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS PASSING JUST NORTH
OF OUR CWA WHILE MAIN MESOSCALE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF
EASTERN NC IS FAIRLY STABLE GIVEN EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
FEEL ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN
PERHAPS ADDITIONAL SOLAR HEATING CAN OCCUR. LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL
SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO FORM NEAR THE SEA BREEZE.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...DID LOWER
AFTERNOON MAXES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STRONG UPR SHRT WV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
AREA FROM NW TONIGHT....AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MCS COMING
ACROSS MTNS PRODUCING WDSPRD SVR THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING
WITH SEVERAL INDICATING MAIN ACTIVITY W AND SW OF ERN NC...THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS AT 50%. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
PROFILE...ENHANCED SVR THREAT IS WARRANTED FOR INLAND AREAS WITH
SLIGHT RISK REST OF AREA.
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN MID TO UPR 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...AN ACTIVE DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONG VORT CENTER PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT
NEARLY AS HIGH WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING AND SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT 50%. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROF SETS
UP ONCE AGAIN ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. MAINLY
DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL FORECAST VCTS WITH LOWER VSBY FROM ROUGHLY
08Z TO 12Z. SUBSIDENCE AGAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...SCATTERED STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF AND END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS...NORTH
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY...NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND
MAINLY EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY PICKING UP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS. ALREADY
GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 21 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED FOR SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD
TO 5-7 FT OUTER PORTIONS AND SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
BASED ON LATEST WAVE MODEL HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FEET NORTH OF OCRACOKE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE
THE HEADLINES FOR THIS WHEN CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
INSTABILITY (~2 KJ/KG) OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT THE TIME THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE ARRIVES...WITH INCREASING SHEAR. WILL
PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE IN OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE LARGE
HAIL/WIND THREAT FROM THIS. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY
MID EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE
EAST. ELSEWHERE...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SPREAD AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST. POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06
UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL
LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK
SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY.
SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00
UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A
FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER
....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR
DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD
FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TOWARDS EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER WAVE (SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ARRIVES...AND DID INSERT T+ FOR THIS AREA.
INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING JET STREAK
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLD-SCATTERED.
THERE REMAINS LESS CERTAINTY TO THE EAST...WHERE
THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE
GREATER...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...AND SEVERE
APPEARS UNLIKELY (ALTHOUGH STILL POSSIBLE).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.
STARTING TO GET T-STORM DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF DEVILS
LAKE...ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH
WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EAST OF A LANGDON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK. WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 30%-40%
RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. IN THE
WARM SECTOR TO THE WEST (MAINLY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA)...ANTICIPATE
MLCAPE TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30 KNTS). THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KNT JET STREAK.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD TO SCATTERED
(GIVEN LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE)...DO THINK THESE FACTORS ARE ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE STORMS (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS). ONLY MAJOR UPDATE WILL BE TO EXTEND AREA OF THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE WX STORY AND HWO (SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH THEIR MORNING UPDATE).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT WV
LOOP SHOWS SOME DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL RIDE OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC PATTERN IS VERY
WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM
INCOMING SHORTWAVES AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE...BUT SOME
STORMS PULSING UP ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CAM MODELS HAVE
BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TO KEEP 20-40 POPS
GOING...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING TO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ALTHOUGH THE MODELS BRING
ANOTHER RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE IN...WITH VARIATIONS ON EXACT
TIMING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
MORE MOISTURE...AND CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 2000 J/KG. SHEAR
VALUES ARE AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS IN SOME PLACES AND SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A BIG EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HAVE POPS RAMPING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS HAVE THE MAIN RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...CLOUDS AND A TINY BIT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM REACHING 80...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MID 80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SOUTH WINDS AND LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD KEEP LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS
PERIOD...BUT THINK THAT BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MOIST AIR. THURSDAY
HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE AS PRECIP LIMITS HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT
STILL RATHER HUMID.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING
OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A TROF DIGGING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...KEEPING MORE OF A SW FLOW REGIME OVER THE
AREA. VARIOUS IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THRU THE FLOW
BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA EACH DAY...AND ALSO KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE TAMPED DOWN A
BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ON THE WARM
SIDE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
SEVERAL CHALLENGES THIS FCST PERIOD. AREA OF MVFR CUMULUS IN NW MN
MAY IMPACT TVF/BJI THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO WITH SFC HEATING MAY MIX OUT
SOME INTO THE LOW END VFR RANGE. OTHERWISE ISSUE IS TSTM COVERAGE.
I PUT VCTS IN ALL TAF SITES MID TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS FEEL
COVERAGE OF STORMS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT IT, BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
ENOUGH AT ANY ONE SITE TO GO PREDOMINATE. FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING IF AREAS DO GET RAIN COULD GET SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOWER
CLOUDS BUT AS USUAL THAT TOO THIS FAR OUT IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN.
WINDS BEMIDJI MORE EASTERLY WITH MORE VARIABLE IN THE RRV WITH A
MORE SOUTHEAST WIND AT DVL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE
ARE SOME EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THANKS TO AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH... BUT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST BY A DEGREE AND UPDATED
POPS TO INCLUDE 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE HRRR AS WELL AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WERE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE 14Z.
THE HRRR SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THAT
CHANCE IS SMALL.
AC/MD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF OK/N TX THRU TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS IN NW OK HAVE BEEN
AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM TSRA IN SW KS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING NEAR AND N OF KGAG-KPNC. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
S WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CHANGES IN SPEED
AND DIRECTION.
CMS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN KANSAS HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING CHANGEABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING IN THAT AREA...ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONDITIONS IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...SO OUR
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT 10 PERCENT THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF STORMS CAN
OVERCOME THE LACK OF SUPPORT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ITS SMALL MEANDERINGS WILL ALLOW MINOR DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MODEL DEW POINT FORECASTS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED
TO USE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...SINCE IT
APPEARS TO BE MORE REASONABLE THAN ANY AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SUPPORTS
RETAINING OUR HEAT ADVISORY...AND ADDING LOGAN AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES LESS HOT...AND PERHAPS A TAD LESS HUMID. ASSUMING THIS
HAPPENS...THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT TIME AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 101 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 71 99 72 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 99 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 98 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-
008-012-013-019-020-026.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-010-011-
017-018-024-025-027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
459 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND CLEAN UP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PRODUCTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS
ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD AND
SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH AT TIMES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED. THIS REGION WILL BE AN AREA WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH TIME
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH EAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG. ALSO...A
WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL SUSTAIN STORM STRUCTURE AND
CONTINUED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT AND WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY... ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET AT ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR CONVECTION
THAT IS THE RESULT OF WAA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY A
DECAYING MCS FURTHER EAST. THE HRRR FORMS A LINE OF THESE TWO
DISTURBANCES AND CARRIES THEM SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE PRE STORM AIRMASS AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 4500-6500
J/KG. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY. THE WALNUT RIDGE AWOS STATION HAS ALREADY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1935Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROHIBIT THE TYPE OF
TEMPS THAT WE SAW TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE 90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME OPPRESSIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN 22-23C. THAT CORRELATES TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. CONFIDENT IN THE NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW IF NOT EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
RETROGRADING WEST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS BY MID WEEK.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/JBR MAINLY AFTER 14/20Z WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT JBR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION
OF SHRA/VCTS OUT AFTER 15/01Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS TONIGHT
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY... ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET AT ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR CONVECTION
THAT IS THE RESULT OF WAA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY A
DECAYING MCS FURTHER EAST. THE HRRR FORMS A LINE OF THESE TWO
DISTURBANCES AND CARRIES THEM SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE PRE STORM AIRMASS AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 4500-6500
J/KG. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY. THE WALNUT RIDGE AWOS STATION HAS ALREADY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1935Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROHIBIT THE TYPE OF
TEMPS THAT WE SAW TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE 90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME OPPRESSIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN 22-23C. THAT CORRELATES TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. CONFIDENT IN THE NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW IF NOT EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
RETROGRADING WEST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS BY MID WEEK.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/JBR MAINLY AFTER 14/20Z WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT JBR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION
OF SHRA/VCTS OUT AFTER 15/01Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS TONIGHT
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH COPIOUS REPORTS
OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALREADY POURING IN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
ALTHOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40
WILL BE HARDEST HIT. HRRR SHOWS THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA BY 23Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CELLS RE-
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE MID STATE WELL INTO THE EVENING. LOOK
FOR THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING,
USHERING IN DRIER (BUT NOT MUCH COOLER) WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK WHERE THEY
WERE, WITH HEAT INDICES RETURNING TO THE LOW 100`S, JUST SHY OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 89 69 90 / 50 20 10 10
CROSSVILLE 68 84 65 84 / 60 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 73 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
WAVERLY 73 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY FOR BNA AND CSV. PLACED TEMPO GROUP AT THOSE TWO
TERMINALS AND LEFT VCTS AT CKV DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY. SFC FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREAS
THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING. DROPPED BNA TO MVFR AND CSV TO LIFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS.
REAGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
UPDATE...
A WARM, MUGGY AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOWARD THE
AREA. MORNING CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MRX`S CWA. ACROSS MIDDLE TN AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A
WEAK SFC BASED CAP. BY 18Z 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH NO CIN REMAINING. STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE PLATEAU FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THEN
PUSHING SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE 12Z OHX RAOB INDICATED 40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL DESPITE A WARM
THERMAL PROFILE. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE CONDITIONAL ON
INTERACTIONS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT ONCE COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND LINE
SEGMENTS BECOME THE MODE OF CHOICE.
AS FAR AS THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE.
REAGAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 74 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 89 69 90 / 50 20 10 10
CROSSVILLE 69 84 65 84 / 60 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 74 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 74 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10
WAVERLY 74 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...AND LESS HUMID
AIR...WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL COVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS LOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WAS HIGHEST IN GREENBRIER COUNTY DOWN TO TAZEWELL COUNTY. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME SINCE STORMS MOTION WILL LIMIT
HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THOUGH RATES MAY BE HIGH.
UPPER TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO CROSSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING.
HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT USING THE
TIMING OF THE HRRR AND SPC HRRR. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DROP OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE
UPSLOPE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STAYED CLOSED TO COOLED GUIDANCE BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. AS USUAL...AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON THE
DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT MAY BE ONE OF THE DRIEST
TIME PERIODS WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE. THIS PATTERN IS BEING ATTRIBUTED
TO BOTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF SQUELCHING
ANY CONVECTION AND TRENDING TEMPERATURES COOLER...AS COMPARED TO
READINGS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. OUR SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TWO FORMS ON DIFFERENT DAYS.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
DISSIPATE QUICKLY..AND LIKELY BE ONLY SHOWERS.
ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT EAST...AND A
WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO HELP INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LIFT THAT PURE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE. THIS EXTRA LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY REACH THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND THUS KEEP THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WE WILL RETURN TO A WETTER
PATTERN...ONE NOT TOO UNLIKE WHAT HAS BEEN THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF JULY. THE NORTHERN JET WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN...BRINGING SHORTWAVE AFTER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL HAVE THE AFFECT OF RETROGRADING
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BACK TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME
PERIODS WILL HAVE A GREATER COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO AGAIN HEAD INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE OFFERS A
SOLUTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THESE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WARM A LITTLE BIT MORE
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TWO VERSIONS OF THE HRRR BRINGS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TIMING OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. LOWER
PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT LOCAL AIRPORTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS THAT
WILL BE COMING OUT OF OHIO AND KENTUCKY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WILL
CLEAR OUT KLYH AND KDAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...
OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS EXPERIENCING
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
203 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE ERODED AND MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
PICTURES INDICATED MUCH OF THE LEFTOVER CIRRUS FROM THE STORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO ERODED. FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN A
RELATE AREA OF MORE STABLE AIR BUT SHOULD NOW BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD COVER.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM
OF THE AREA PER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL REACH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER 6PM. AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH BY THEN TO SUPPORT SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO MONDAY...CLOUDS
HOLDING READINGS STEADY DURING THE MORNING...THEN A RAPID RISE
WITH RETURN OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRINGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...ESP FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. MAY NEED TO
RENEW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PENDING RADAR/MODEL TRENDS LATER
TODAY.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
ADVERTISING LOWER NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY COMPARED LAST FEW DAYS.
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY AND ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. CERTAINLY
CAN`T RULE OUT A POP-UP DIURNAL SHOWER...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...AND WILL OMIT ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE
BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TWO VERSIONS OF THE HRRR BRINGS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TIMING OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. LOWER
PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT LOCAL AIRPORTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS THAT
WILL BE COMING OUT OF OHIO AND KENTUCKY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WILL
CLEAR OUT KLYH AND KDAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT...WILL HAVE
SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND
GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...
OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS EXPERIENCING
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...