Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/14/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEK... WILL LIKELY SPREAD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANY AREAS NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AZ HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OVER EASTERN AZ. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL HAS PROVEN THE MOST ACCURATE SO FAR...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON FORECAST TO SPREAD AND DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. THE HRRR DOES RESPOND TO THIS CONVECTION BY FORECASTING A DISTINCT NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...20 PERHAPS 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS...TO MOVE THROUGH CASA GRANDE AND COOLIDGE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM...AND INTO THE PHOENIX EAST VALLEY BY 8 PM. AREAS OF DUST ARE POSSIBLE. THE HRRR ONLY PRODUCES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY...INCLUDING PHOENIX. AS A RESULT OF THIS EVENING PASSING OUTFLOWS...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID DAY. IT MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MONDAY TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND LESS HUMID OVER OUR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTWHEST AZ TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STILL RELATED TO THE POSITIONAL WEST COAST TROF AND ITS INLAND MOVING DISTURBANCES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE THREATS IN EASTERN AZ...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS HURRICANE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA. ALL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST CURRENT TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...JUST OFF THE ACAPULCO COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TO MOVE NORTHWEST...STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND HUG THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA WEST COAST 450 MILES OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. IT NEVER MAKES LANDFALL...HOWEVER ITS MOISTURE AND RELATED HIGH PRECIP WATER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...MAXING OUT OVER AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A FIRST GUESS...MODELED UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ARE NOT IDEAL FOR BIG AND WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT SAT AND SUN. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTHWEST AZ...SOUTHERN NV...AND SOUTHWEST UT. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... OVERALL WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...HOWEVER THE DIRECTION HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND. EXPECTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BEFORE THAT...THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AZ ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 - 25 KTS TO IMPACT KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 02Z AND 03Z. LIKELY SOME BLOWING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTFLOWS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE REDUCED VISIBILITY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... FAIRLY QUIET AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO RETAIN A DIURNAL WEST- SOUTHWEST HEADING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND SETS IN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY BE IN STORE STARTING FRIDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RISING HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL BE COMMONLY BREEZY AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ AVIATION...DEWEY FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MINOR COOLING NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY TO SOUTHERLY TODAY AS EXPECTED. MAJOR FEATURES UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM HAVE FOCUSED A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH QUITE A LONG FETCH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN A HEALTHY 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH HIGHER VALUES UPSTREAM IN SONORA. SOLID DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...SOLAR INSOLATION...AND A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADD UP TO BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. COULD WE FINALLY GET AN AFTERNOON WITH ALL OR MOST OF TUCSON METRO IMPACTED? STORM MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY SLOW A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY A CONCERN...ISOLATED SEVERE. MINOR FIRST PERIOD FORECAST UPDATES BLENDING IN LATER MODEL DATA WITH AN END RESULT OF INCREASING PRECIP PROBABILITIES 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/18Z. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35-45 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY GENERATE BLDU/S REDUCING VSBYS TO 1SM NW OF KTUS BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/03Z. CLOUD DECKS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 6-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS CHARACTERIZED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ARC OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO NWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA...THEN NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE... DARKENING FEATURE OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REPRESENTS A VORT MAX THAT VARIOUS 12/00Z MODELS MOVE NWD ADJACENT THE ERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT...AND A FAVORABLE GENERALLY SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THE CHANCES FOR WESTWARD EXPANSION OF SHOWER/TSTMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR AROUND 16Z- 17Z TODAY EITHER NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY...OR FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS ACROSS SWRN COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE NWWD AND ENCROACH UPON THE TUCSON METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...POPS WERE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED MODESTLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON NWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS FROM 12/21Z TO 13/03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY...HOWEVER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF SHOWER-AND-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR MON-WED MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WEAK SWLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ TSTMS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRI WILL HAVE SIMILAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS BY FRI THOUGH APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY SAT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS FORECAST AREA FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES. THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND FURTHER WWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS...AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE NEXT SAT. IF THERE IS CONTINUED CONTINUITY AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS WILL LIKELY BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT. AS AN ASIDE...SUN IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAS RESULTED IN DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THRU THURSDAY...THEN SOME MINOR COOLING IS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENHANCED NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALIZED. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON MEYER/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MINOR COOLING NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS CHARACTERIZED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ARC OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO NWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA...THEN NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE... DARKENING FEATURE OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REPRESENTS A VORT MAX THAT VARIOUS 12/00Z MODELS MOVE NWD ADJACENT THE ERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT...AND A FAVORABLE GENERALLY SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THE CHANCES FOR WESTWARD EXPANSION OF SHOWER/TSTMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR AROUND 16Z- 17Z TODAY EITHER NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY...OR FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS ACROSS SWRN COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE NWWD AND ENCROACH UPON THE TUCSON METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...POPS WERE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED MODESTLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON NWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS FROM 12/21Z TO 13/03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY...HOWEVER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF SHOWER-AND-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR MON-WED MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WEAK SWLY MID- LEVEL STEERING FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ TSTMS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRI WILL HAVE SIMILAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS BY FRI THOUGH APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY SAT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS FORECAST AREA FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES. THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND FURTHER WWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS...AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE NEXT SAT. IF THERE IS CONTINUED CONTINUITY AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS WILL LIKELY BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT. AS AN ASIDE...SUN IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAS RESULTED IN DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THRU THURSDAY...THEN SOME MINOR COOLING IS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENHANCED NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALIZED. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z. ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF KTUS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/ INTERNATIONAL BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35-45 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY GENERATE BLDU/S REDUCING VSBYS TO 1SM NW OF KTUS BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/03Z. CLOUD DECKS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 6-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
938 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE MODIFIED WEATHER FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF NV 447. HRRR AND NAM ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN WE CURRENTLY SHOW...SO WILL PULL THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SOON. 20 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. SHORT TERM... A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AT 25-30 MPH. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT AS THE GFS INDICATES LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE GFS SOUNDINGS WERE ALREADY TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT 06Z (11 PM SATURDAY) SO I HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM FOR AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. THE NAM IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO WORK TOGETHER TO INITIATE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONES. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE BEST CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF THE SIERRA TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE. EVEN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM IS RATHER ANEMIC WITH PRECIPITATION SO CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN WIND UP REMAINING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MONDAY, AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS EVEN MORE SPARSE AS UPPER FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL AND CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY ON TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREAS SUCH AS THE MONO-MINERAL-SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY AREA. ELSEWHERE, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NO MORE THAN SOME FLAT CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED CONVECTION-WISE. TUESDAY, THE GFS, NAM AND THE SREF ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SNYDER LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS. A FEW BRIEF LATE DAY TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THURSDAY (THE WARMER DAY) BUT THIS POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS RATHER SLIM SO WE HAVE NOT YET ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS BY THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING TOWARD DEVELOPING A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE FARTHER EAST. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL INITIALLY BE INCREASING WINDS AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY. THE GFS WAS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEST CENTRAL NV, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PRODUCE CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME COOLING MAY REACH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY, BUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY DUE TO FULL MIXING AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. COOLING TREND CONTINUES THRU SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN, BUT AT THIS TIME WE DID NOT ADD ANY PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL SAT NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MJD AVIATION... FOR TODAY, ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL NV NEAR THE HWY 95 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MONO COUNTY BTWN 20-04Z, BUT THE MAIN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. FOR MONDAY, THE THREAT OF ISOLD LATE DAY TSTMS BECOMES REDUCED TO EASTERN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. FOR BOTH DAYS, SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY BTWN 22Z-04Z. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KTRK EACH MORNING MAINLY BTWN 11-15Z, BUT OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. MJD && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND AVIATION UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NV THIS EVENING AND THE 00Z NAM/GFS PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL AND KEEP CONVECTION GOING A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HANGS ONTO IT TIL MORNING ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FLOW WAS BACKING SLIGHTLY WHICH WAS ALLOWING STORMS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGINIA RANGE. LIGHTNING WAS NOTED FROM THE NWS OFFICE TO THE SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING INCLUDE SPREADING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WESTWARD JUST A BIT BUT KEEPING IT EAST OF KRNO-KCXP. WE ALSO KEPT SOME SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT UNTIL 09Z FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE AND REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FAR NORTH. HOHMANN && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ SYNOPSIS... DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM... NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DOWN TO THE SIERRA CREST OF MONO COUNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THE HRRR AND NAM ARE FAVORING SOME CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS AT LEAST A 15% COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN PERSHING COUNTY. THEN, DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY ONWARD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVER-CONVECTING MONDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY, BUT MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM; KEPT CHANCES AROUND 10%. THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. BOYD LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE PATTERN IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TO START THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA VALLEYS NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES EACH DAY WITH MAINLY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW 15% FOR THESE AREAS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY STILL IS SIZABLE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ATTEMPT A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA IN MORE OF A TROUGH PATTERN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND IN THE GFS WHILE THE EC DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS IS ALMOST THE REVERSE OF WHAT EACH MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING IN THEIR RESPECTIVE LAST FEW CYCLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ENSEMBLES SPREADS ARE LARGE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. FUENTES AVIATION... ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z MAINLY FOR AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF KNFL, BUT OVERALL AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. FOR SUNDAY, ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A FALLON-SUSANVILLE LINE BUT THE MAIN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS 20- 25 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY BTWN 21Z-04Z. TF && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPDATED TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...HOT DAY ON TAP... AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EDGING WEST INTO CO TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO/KS BORDER. THIS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE...AND PROVIDE FOR JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE. EXPECT A VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT LACKS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATELY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RIDING UP ACROSS CO ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THIS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...AND ADDED FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT...GRIDS WILL CARRY GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SFC DEW POINTS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY HIGH YET ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND CAPES AND SHEAR APPEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO BURN SCARS. BETTER RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS A TAP OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRACKING OVER THE REGION. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT TUES AFTERNOON...WITH GFS LIFTING IT BACK NORTHWARD INTO NE CO TUES AFTN...WHILE NAM12 AND ECMWF KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM RUNS FOR NOW. WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING BACK INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAPE VALUES TO 1500 TO PERHAPS CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. 0-6 KM SHEARS LOOK ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS EC OR SE CO TUESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...NAM12 AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE DETAILS VS THE DRIER GFS SOLN...WHICH WAS DISCOUNTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SENDS A SHORTWAVE TROF RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND SERVES TO SEND SOME DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN CO WED AFTN. THIS DROPS BACK SFC DEW POINTS AGAIN...WHICH DIMINISHES CAPE AND REDUCES POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DRY OUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS COMPARED TO ECMWF. WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR BURN SCARS THIS DAY AS THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. AIRMASS DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE NEXT RESURGENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME APPEARS TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT SUNDAY. -KT && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS EVENING...BOTH KALS AND KPUB MAY SEE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE VCNTY. MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WL MOVE THRU THE SERN CO PLAINS AND WL BRING SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...28 SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AN UPR HIGH CENTER IS OVR ERN TX TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVR TX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MSTR OVR THE AREA TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TIED TO THE HIGHER TRRN... INCLUDING THE PALMER DVD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE OUT OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR BACA AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE MSTR WL STILL BE LIMITED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MONDAY...DURING THE DAY THE NORTHWEST US TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST...AND MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE LOW END SCATTERED TO ISOLATED POPS GOING AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE CWA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S TO 70S MOUNTAINS. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED SOUTH SOME...AND THE MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SUBTROPICS WILL STILL BE OVER THE CWA. SO...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS READINGS. WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BUT IT SHOULD BE CENTERED FAR TO OUR NORTH. STILL...ANOTHER SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME FORCING ALOFT. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SOME TO THE WEST...AND THE ROCKIES WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW AND A LITTLE MORE SETTLED WEATHER. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY. OF COURSE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TO IMPACT BURN SCARS...SO THAT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. -TLM- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
803 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS WANED BUT WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR COASTAL LOCALES. SW FLOW COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWER OR TSTORMS TO MOVE IN ALONG THE GULF COAST...SHOULD NIGHTTIME STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, SOME CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED ACTIVITY GOING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT...BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ATLANTIC COAST AS HRRR IS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ANY RAIN IS BENEFICIAL FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAIN COMES THE TYPICAL LIGHTNING WITH OUR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION...AND THIS LIKELY SPARKED A WILDFIRE JUST NORTH OF 8TH ST AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES COULD BE SPARKED BY LIGHTNING IN THE COMING DAYS WITH THE INCREASED TSTORM ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/ ..THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING INTERIOR-EAST COAST METRO THIS WEEK, PROVIDING FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS TO DROUGHT-STICKEN SOUTHEAST FL... DISCUSSION... THUNDER RUMBLING OUTSIDE NWS MIAMI IS A SIGN OF CHANGING TIMES WITH FINALLY A WIND FLOW REGIME ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEING THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE HAVING INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FAVORING MAX CONVERGENCE ON THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. IT WILL BE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE REGIME DOMINATING EACH DAY. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY IS THAT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED HIGHER WITH REGARDS TO ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE INCREASE ALREADY OCCURRING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW UP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THE UPWARD MOISTURE TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HR WITH PWATS APPROACHING OUR MEDIAN FOR MID JULY...AROUND 1.8 INCHES. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND IN THE MODELS CONTINUES. THIS WOULD SPELL A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WHICH LIES IN A SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. WPC QPF FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOWS AREAL AVERAGE OF 1-1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND 0.75-1.0 INCH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THINKING IF MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS CONTINUE, THESE NUMBERS COULD GO HIGHER. CERTAINLY ISOLATED DAILY TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...IN SOUTH FL TYPICAL RAINY SEASON STYLE. MUCH NEEDED RAINS INDEED! OF COURSE WITH THE RAINS COMES THE INCREASING LIGHTNING RISK. THREE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA THIS YEAR. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OVER 10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE LIGHTNING RISK ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND OUR PRODUCTS SINCE IT HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY TSTORM-FREE ACROSS THE POPULATED EAST COAST METRO FOR SOME TIME. /GREGORIA MARINE... THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LEADING TO A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...SO MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SCATTERED TSTORMS MOVE INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 93 75 93 / 20 50 40 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 76 91 / 20 40 50 50 MIAMI 78 91 76 91 / 20 50 40 50 NAPLES 77 90 77 90 / 20 30 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IN NW GA NEAR REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS THAT MOVED THRU ERN KY AND ERN TN THIS MORNING. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. CORRECTED... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BDL && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... PRIMARY CONCERN IS LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TO ATL METRO TAFS FROM 20-23Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN AS HELPFUL TODAY. SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION TONIGHT THEN BACK TO WEST COMPONENT 4 TO 8KTS MONDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 94 73 94 74 / 30 20 30 20 ATLANTA 94 76 91 76 / 40 20 30 20 BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 50 30 30 40 CARTERSVILLE 93 71 92 73 / 50 20 30 20 COLUMBUS 98 76 94 76 / 20 10 30 20 GAINESVILLE 92 74 91 74 / 40 30 30 20 MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 10 30 20 ROME 93 72 93 74 / 50 20 30 20 PEACHTREE CITY 94 73 92 74 / 30 10 30 20 VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 10 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EVEN THE HI-RE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. CORRECTED... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BDL && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL NOT UPGRADE THE PROB GROUP TO A TEMPO AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS 5KT OR BELOW. THE DIRECTION MAY SWITCH TO THE NE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE WEST DURING MIXING MONDAY MORNING. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... LOW TO MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40 ATLANTA 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 30 BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 40 20 40 50 CARTERSVILLE 92 71 92 73 / 30 20 30 30 COLUMBUS 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20 GAINESVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 30 MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 20 ROME 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 30 30 PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 92 74 / 30 20 40 20 VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EVEN THE HI-RE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. CORRECTED... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BDL && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS ARE PROGGING WINDS AOB 5KT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH A NE DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO BACK WEST BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE BEST TIME FOR STORMS AFTER 20Z. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40 ATLANTA 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 30 BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 40 20 40 50 CARTERSVILLE 92 71 92 73 / 30 20 30 30 COLUMBUS 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20 GAINESVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 30 MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 20 ROME 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 30 30 PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 92 74 / 30 20 40 20 VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OF THE REGION, WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE LONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE NOTED AS INSTABILITY WANES AND AS A SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED TO DRIVE THE STORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY 02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST-CENTRAL IL TO SOUTHEAST IL...WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES AS OF 05Z. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE KSPI MAY BE AFFECTED NEXT FEW HOURS BY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY KPIA- KBMI-KCMI. THIS FOG WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VSBY THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES FROM NW. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS STARTING 00Z FOR POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS BUT STRONG...GUSTY...VARIABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>043-047-048. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
342 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS ROUGHLY WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS FIELD...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED JUST UPSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY. CLOSEST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS STILL IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT SHORT WAVE TROF IS APPROACHING SOUTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA LINE AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS KEEP MAIN MCS EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE ADVANCING CONVECTION. IF THESE FORM IT WILL QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. MAIN MCS SHOULD MOVE PAST THE AREA BY 12 UTC AND FRONT DOESNT REALLY MOVE MUCH BY THEN. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WERE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD A NAM12/ECMWF BLEND FOR TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE STATE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT...BUT ENOUGH THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLD IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A MUCH LESS HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE. SOME MIXING LOOKS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH TUESDAY...BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY NOT CONCERNED WITH EXTREME HEAT INDEX VALUES. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE AND BEST CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TO PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS AS HIGH AS 4000 METERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TRENDED DRIER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHEN AND IF ANY SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WENT WITH LESSER POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. PLUS WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...TRENDED WARMER FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THINKING LESS CLOUD COVER AND MODELS AT LEAST HINTING ON STRONGER WAA. && .AVIATION...12/18Z ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LINGERING STRATUS AFFECTING KMCW AND KALO WILL DISSIPATE TO VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HOUR. LATER IN THE PERIOD INTRODUCED MENTION OF VCTS TO KALO KMCW AND KOTM WITH MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS- APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD- DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HUMBOLDT-JASPER- KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS- POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE- WEBSTER. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS- APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS- DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION- MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION- WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARDING LONG TERM...PODRAZIK AVIATION...HARDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER MOISTURE PLUME HAD WORKED ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS WITH A FEW CUMULUS RECENTLY NOTED IN HYS/HLC VICINITY NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN LESS IMPRESSIVE MIXING, AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INHIBITION TO CONVECTION IS LOW THOUGH SO IS FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS DECENT AND COULD KEEP SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORMS THAT FORM TO THE WEST. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE CUMULUS, THOUGH AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY, ALREADY HAS STORMS BY THIS POINT AND IT HAS BEEN OVERZEALOUS ON PRECIP IN RECENT DAYS. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A SMALL POP IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 0Z. NORTHERN UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST MONDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIOUS IDEAS ON LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS, AND MIXING AGAIN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE, LIKELY KEEPING DEWPOINTS RATHER HIGH. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT BUT THIS STILL SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED CIN AND, LIKE TODAY, LIMITED FORCING. WITH A MORE DEFINED BOUNDARY, WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT, WITH AGAIN SOME DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING MAINLY DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN, WITH APPARENT TEMPS AROUND 110 LIKELY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. AGAIN EXACT VALUES HARD TO NAIL DOWN AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN WARNING AREAS COULD BE NEEDED LATER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MODELS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +13C PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN GENERAL THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PERIOD WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE OBVIOUS. THE FORECAST HAS SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE IN THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN KS AND CENTRAL NEB ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS GOING. THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT OR FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN KS FOR SUNDAY SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CENTER OF THE THERMAL RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE EXTENDED SO TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HOT WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT MAY NOT BE HAS EXTREME AS WE ARE EXPECTING TOMORROW, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 100 FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH 0Z BUT SUCH SPEEDS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION. WILL GO AHEAD WITH WIND SHEAR INCLUSION WITH GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN STRONGER SW WINDS DEVELOPING NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ012- 024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ012-024-026-038>040- 054>056-058-059. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ008>011-020>023- 034>037. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...WOLTERS AVIATION...65
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ARLATX REGION. MEANWHILE THERE WERE SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE WAVES MOVING ON SHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE TX PANHANDLE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR PHILLIPSBURG KS TO NORTH OF HEBRON AND INTO NORTHERN MO. FOR THIS EVENING, THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THERE CERTAINLY IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR STORMS TO FORM, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE UPDRAFTS. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY SOLUTION SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE ALONE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING. THERE REMAINS SOME WILDCARDS THOUGH. THE HRRR ALSO WANTS TO DEVELOP AN MCS AND BRING IT INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH STORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, THIS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PLAUSIBLE. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW SOME LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES, HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SATURATED AIR BEING LIFTED. SO I DON`T HAVE A GOOD FEELING FOR WHETHER STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND I THINK THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONE TO CAUSE SOME ELEVATED STORMS. IN THE END HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR NORTH. FOR SUNDAY, MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WHILE 700 MB TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE DAY. SO UNLESS SOMETHING UNEXPECTED HAPPENS, LIKE AN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KS IN THE MORNING, THINK THE STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOW LIMITED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KS WHILE NORTH CENTRAL KS COULD MIX TO NEAR 800MB. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS SOME DRY AIR MOVING IN AT 850 WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 15C. SO ACROSS EASTERN KS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BUT WITH LESS MIXING SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD APPROACH 100 WITH DEEPER MIXING, BUT SHOULD MIX SOME OF THE DRYER AIR TO THE SURFACE. IN THE END, HEAT INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 105 SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM GETTING TOO FAR ABOVE 100, BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. HEAT INDICES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL INTO ADVISORY AND PERHAPS WARNING LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS IS USUAL AT THIS RANGE, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AND JUST HOW MUCH THE POOLED MOISTURE CAN MIX OUT BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT ON APPARENT TEMPS. THIS ALSO LEADS TO INSTABILITY/CAP VALUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DESPITE WEAK CONVERGENCE. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW LEADS TO MODERATE SHEAR AND COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION FOR NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH WIND POTENTIAL. HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE QUICKER FRONT TIMING WITH MORE MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH STILL MODEST RELIEF TO THE HEAT, ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY IN CHECK. THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN A SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND ENTERING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES L0CALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT COOLER WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE, WITH RIDGE REGAINING SOME STRENGTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND IN THE LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS AT TO ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK COULD EASILY BRING ABOUT MORE HEAT HEADLINE POTENTIAL BY THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...WOLTERS LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY KICKED IN ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING AND TODAY. MOST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON UNDER THE SLIGHT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...BENDING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE EASTERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OBSERVED SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 1PM CDT SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEND OUTFLOWS AND SOME UPSHEAR LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS CLOSE TO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS FOR PARTS OF PIKE...WARRICK AND SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS INDIANAPOLIS...DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE IN SPACE AND TIME. IT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...ADDED A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VERY ROBUST CAPE FOR UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR INITIATION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE INVERSION IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND POSSIBLY A MICROBURST OR TWO) WITH THIS REGIME IN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SUNDAY. THE ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE ANY DELAY IN REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SURFACE OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LEFT OVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL EXPAND WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS DEFINITELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEANED CLOSER TO THE 3KM HRRR FOR THE EXTREMELY SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...BLENDING TOWARD THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS AND WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF REGARDING ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE AREA...DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TUE. PCPN CHANCES (HIGHEST IN THE SERN QUADRANT) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING WILL WANE TUE NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW GOES SLIGHTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC...LEAVING WED DRY. BY MIDDAY THU...A SECOND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR WEST (PARTS OF SERN MO) CLOSER TO A DOMINANT SRN CONUS RIDGE. SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MINOR ENERGY IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS EVENT SHOULD END THU NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND THE ANTI- CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AGAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE MARK IN SERN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN 09-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KEVV/KOWB TSRA POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z AOB 6 KNOTS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1153 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 IN MANY SPOTS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. WARM...HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A FEW DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 1150 AM...CU ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THROUGH SW MAINE...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THE MID-COAST. UPDATED GRIDS FOR MOST RECENT OBS AND TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHC AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTM. 840 AM...CURRENT SATL PIC AND RADAR SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MAINE AS BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS AND HAVE RAISED MORNING HOURLY TEMPS AT BIT WHICH SHOULD RISE QUICKLY-- ALTHOUGH HAVEN`T CHANGED MAXES FOR DAY. 640 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST 10Z MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...A WARM OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWST MAINE FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH WITH DRIER LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ZONES...WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RELEGATED TO A HUMID AIRMASS. R OR TSTM IN SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASING MAKING FOR A STICK NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S SOUTH TO 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND LAKES REGION NORTHWARD TO VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AN ONSHORE WIND WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN AS HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE TO BUILD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB PATTERN FEATURES A DECENT TROUGH ROTATING EWD AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD TUESDAY AND WED BUT WILL ALSO BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DEFINITELY LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BENEATH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WILL SEE FLOW BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE ONSHORE AS TROUGH APPROACHES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHRA BUT MORE LIKELY WILL SE STRATUS/FOG AND EVEN SOME DZ MOVE ONSHORE MON NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUE MORNING. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MID-UPPER FLOW SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SW...AND THE THREAT FOR TSRA WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA...DESPITE THE PAUCITY OF QPF IN THE 00Z EURO. HIGHS TUE WILL REACH 80-85 INLAND...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK IN THE 70S COASTAL AREAS....AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FROPA COULD GET BACK INTO THE 80S ON WED. THE LESS HUMID AIR MOVES IN FOR THU AND FRI...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. GFS WANT TO BRING PRECIP IN BY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE EURO IS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT LOCAL IFR VCNTY OF KLEB AND KHIE IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. WIDELY SCT MVFR TODAY AND MONDAY IN -SHRA AND -TSRA. LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AT LEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE NIGHT INTO WED COULD BRING SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR....WITH VFR WED NIGHT INTO THU. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BLO SCA LVLS MON NIGHT THRU THU. SOME SWELL FORM OFFSHORE SYSTEM COULD PUSH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
605 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 605 AM UPDATE...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITED MAINE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AND ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANY SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME LIFT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL SETTLE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WITH A GUSTY WIND. DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. THE DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND COULD COME CLOSE TO 90F ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. MUCH COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH BUILD OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 50S IN THE BANGOR AREA UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, WARM FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AND MUGGY NIGHT; MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH JUST A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY; SB CAPES WILL RUN 200-600 J/KG, ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE OWING TO STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. NORTHERN MAINE WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, TAKING THE FRONT AND THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS RIDGE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED, WHICH RESULTED IN CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND FOR SATURDAY. DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS EITHER, WHICH GAVE HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH/80S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KPQI AND KHUL TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY IN FOG. BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR IN FOG TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE; MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RESUMES MID-TO-LATE WEEK. && .CLIMATE...WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES AT BANGOR TODAY. IF THE TEMPERATURE WERE TO HIT 90 DEGREES IT WOULD BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY AT BANGOR SINCE JULY 19, 2013. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 UPPER AND SFC TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SE TONIGHT AND TUE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND ARE NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO MORE NRN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE IN. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER SRN UPPER MI...DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO AROUND 1000J/KG OF CAPE AROUND AROUND 20KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. USED A BLEND OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION. MARINE FOG WILL BE PUSHED ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING IN UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO BE DONE BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT DID LAG CLOUDS BACK FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLEARING IS OFTEN SLOWER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE U.P. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN A FEW DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE DEPARTING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO LEAD TO ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA (TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL). WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE VARYING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL TRY TO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER TIMING...MAINLY IN THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD...WITH THE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON THE SUBTLE FEATURES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT 5 DAYS OUT). OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WARM/HUMID ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE MODELS ARE GIVING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR WAVE EJECTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND POTENTIALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WL BE VFR AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL 3 SITES...VEERING WINDS TOWARD THE N THRU THIS EVNG OFF LK SUP WL ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -RA OR -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR FM ONTARIO ON TUE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE TO A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. A BROAD 1000MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED BELOW THIS UPPER LOW AND A TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. TO THE EAST OF THOSE FEATURES AND OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND DEPARTING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.P....WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING HAS PRODUCED A CU FIELD OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...WHILE THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE EAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN (KISQ ONLY 72 AT 3PM) HAS STABILIZED THAT AREA AND KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY SUNNY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH IS NOW PUSHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THEM TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. EXPECT THAT TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE SEEN A DOWNWARD TREND ON RADAR AND LIGHTNING OVER THE LAST 15-30MIN. HAVE SEEN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL THEY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL AND VERY ISOLATED. EXPECT THAT ISOLATED POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE...INHIBITED BY THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME CAPPING NEAR 725MB. IF SOMETHING COULD GET GOING WOULD LARGELY EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. THE FORECAST THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING (ALREADY STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND EAST OF FARGO ALONG THE WARM FRONT) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THEY WILL BE DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THEM TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO AN MCS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT LOCATION AND STORM MOTION WOULD MOVE THE STORMS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND THEN DIVE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY NEAR WESTERN WISCONSIN DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST POINTING FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE LOCATION OF THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...STILL THINK THE AREA WILL SEE THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER OUT WEST). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH THEM AS THE MAIN COMPLEX SLIDES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL ADD A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS BRUSHING THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW BEHIND THE MCS THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE STILL WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION (ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS...LIKELY TIED TO THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS. THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED TONIGHT ONCE THE MCS HAS SHOWN ITS LOCATION/MOVEMENT...AS IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET TO 750J/KG (EXCEPT OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...SO THINK THE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL KEEP THE CHANCE THERE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 NAM SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN WENT DRY FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST 12Z THU. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME WARMER AIR TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SFC FRONTS WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND HAVING SOME POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED SEEMS WARRANTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A WEAKENING RIDGE COMBINED WITH AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT SPEEDS WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 20KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MORNING THE FOG WAS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS EDGED THAT FOG A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. SEVERAL SHIP OBS TODAY INDICATED THE FOG WAS DENSE AT TIMES...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST AIR...ALONG WITH SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR 80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 NAM SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN WENT DRY FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST 12Z THU. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME WARMER AIR TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SFC FRONTS WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND HAVING SOME POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED SEEMS WARRANTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...SRF MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR 80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT 500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST E AT AROUND 0.25IN/. BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...SRF MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
115 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT VERY SLOWLY CREEPS NE THRU PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TVC OB RECENTLY AND THE FKS OB EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAVE SEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. SUSPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" RETURNS (IF YOU CAN CALL THEM THAT). OVERALL...CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL FITTING THE BILL FOR THIS AREA OF DIMINISHING PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BOOSTS CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT/ ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ENJOY! UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF 1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET. PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER (REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE. BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES... SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND. PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT. BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40 DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS. TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE. (7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. (7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY FOR TVC AND MBL AS THE NW EDGE OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE CLIPS THAT AREA. STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE DAY. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE S/SE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MLR NEAR TERM...ADAM SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...MLR MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT VERY SLOWLY CREEPS NE THRU PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TVC OB RECENTLY AND THE FKS OB EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAVE SEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. SUSPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" RETURNS (IF YOU CAN CALL THEM THAT). OVERALL...CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL FITTING THE BILL FOR THIS AREA OF DIMINISHING PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BOOSTS CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT/ ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ENJOY! UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF 1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET. PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER (REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE. BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES... SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND. PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT. BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40 DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS. TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE. (7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. (7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE REGION. SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TVC TERMINAL SITE THROUGH 15Z WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. TONIGHT...LARGELY VFR PERSISTS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS...LIGHT AND FLOPPY THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TO LAKE BREEZES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MLR NEAR TERM...ADAM SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
803 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR 80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT 500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST E AT AROUND 0.25IN/. BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE RETURN OF THE MOISTER AIR AND DAYTIME HEATING WILLCAUSE SOME SHRA AND TS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF SITES AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MRNG AT IWD. SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON PINPOINTING WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BRIEFLY UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHRA OR TSRA...THE VFR WX SHOULD PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF 1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET. PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER (REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE. BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES... SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND. PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT. BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40 DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS. TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE. (7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. (7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE REGION. SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TVC TERMINAL SITE THROUGH 15Z WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. TONIGHT...LARGELY VFR PERSISTS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS...LIGHT AND FLOPPY THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TO LAKE BREEZES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ADAM NEAR TERM...ADAM SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR 80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT 500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST E AT AROUND 0.25IN/. BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH THE RETURN OF MORE HUMID LLVL AIR OVER MAINLY WRN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MRNG AT IWD AND CMX. BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE RETURN OF THE MOISTER AIR AND DAYTIME HEATING WL ALSO CAUSE SOME SHRA AND TS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF SITES AS EARLY AS MID MRNG AT IWD. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LO ON PINPOINTING WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHRA WL OCCUR TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BRIEFLY UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHRA...THE VFR WX SHOULD PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL DRY OUT BY MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 I HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. I EXPUNGED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE I-94 AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IT SEEMS CLEAR TO ME BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN THE IR IMAGE LOOPS...RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS...AND RECENT RAP MODEL DATA THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MOST WE WOULD SEE HERE IS SHOWERS FROM A MID CLOUD DECK AND THAT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...NEARLY ALL OF THAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. MOSTLY WE WILL BE SEEING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THE STEADIEST RAINS AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FIRST SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD HUG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH INTO SW MI MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE WAVE SLOWLY EXITING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY... EXPECT WE WILL SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF PCPN COVERAGE AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER STILL CAN/T RULE A FEW ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE APPEARS MORE POTENT THEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW BRINGS THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND WE SHOULD THEREFORE GET WITHIN THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE STORM PATH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK MARGINAL AS THE JET DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG. SO AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED ON MONDAY...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OTHERWISE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON TUESDAY WHILE THE LESS FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS. THE MAIN RISK APPEARS TO EAST OF HWY 131 WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. A LAKE SHADOW MAY KEEP AREAS WEST OF HWY 131 DRY ON TUESDAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY DELIVERS A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRY TREND MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY AS WELL BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING BACK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR THAN THE ECMWF. LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS H8 TEMPS ABOVE 20C ARRIVING NEXT SATURDAY WHICH MAY SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LIMITED IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY MID CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT WITH CIGS AROUND 10-12K FT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME MVFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CHICAGO TO MADISON WI CORRIDOR AT 06Z WILL IMPACT THE KAZO AND KBTL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND LASTING UNTIL 16-18Z THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOME VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL ALSO KICK IN AT KMKG THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THEN ONCE THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS DONE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 OTHER THEN THE RISK OF STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE LAKE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THEN...THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. STREAMFLOW REMAINS HIGH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SE ND. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SW MN. THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL MN N OF THE WARM FRONT AND A COUPLE COUNTIES W OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING AND AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT AND PERCOLATE IN THE VCNTY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 06Z. LATEST HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. SOME STORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS AFTER 08Z THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH SOME NICE RAIN WAS NOTED DURING THE DAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI. SOME AREAS WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE STORMS IN THE MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT BEGINS BY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND N OF THE LOW TRACK WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKELY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS MID-WEEK...RETURNING TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500MB RIDGE/UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND CAUSE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE RIDGE. ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS AND THUS COOLER TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIR /CANADA/ AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF IT IS MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE REACHING LAND WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER /LOWER DEW POINT/ AIR. HOWEVER...WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN RESULTING IN RISING TEMPS AND DEW POINT VALUES. LATE IN THE WEEK WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF EACH DAY ARE STILL TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. REGARDLESS...OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH A 120KT OR SO JET AT 250MB. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A BETTER ENVIRONMENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE HAVE HAD STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MORNING CONVECTION ENDED UP BEING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME CLEARING AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT A FEW SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND FAST MOVING...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. FOLLOWING THESE STORMS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WITH IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 64 80 64 71 / 60 40 30 40 INL 61 83 62 78 / 70 40 30 40 BRD 63 85 64 82 / 50 50 40 50 HYR 64 82 63 76 / 60 50 30 30 ASX 61 80 60 69 / 60 40 30 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHLAND. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ZONES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND STATIONS ARE STARTING TO REPORT VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONSAS DEW POINTS ARE CREEPING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH. ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN THIS PATTERN. THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE KBRD AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NE MINNESOTA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 63 79 62 72 / 70 50 40 30 INL 64 83 62 77 / 40 50 40 20 BRD 65 87 65 80 / 70 40 40 40 HYR 66 82 61 75 / 60 50 50 20 ASX 63 80 58 71 / 60 50 50 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GRANING SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH. ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN THIS PATTERN. THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE KBRD AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NE MINNESOTA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 63 79 62 72 / 70 50 40 30 INL 64 83 62 77 / 40 50 40 20 BRD 65 87 65 80 / 70 40 40 40 HYR 66 82 61 75 / 60 50 50 20 ASX 63 80 58 71 / 60 50 50 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
515 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 JUST A SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM IN THIS AREA, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA WITH CURRENT HEAT INDICES AROUND 102-103 ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, CAPPING SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE GFS MODEL LOOKS TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS QPF TONIGHT, WHILE THE NAM MODEL MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH ITS QFF. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST INCLUDE CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IL, NORTH AND EAST OF STL. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD IN THE WEAKENING STAGES AS IT DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA, IT MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT. GKS .LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT ITS DOMINANCE OVER OUR REGION WILL WAX AND WANE AT TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DOMINANCE OF THIS UPPER HIGH FADING LATE MONDAY...AND ROUGHLY CORRESPONDING WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER HIGH`S INFLUENCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND AND THIS ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHING BACK THRU ON THURSDAY. WHEN THE FRONT IS TO OUR NORTH...NAMELY THRU MONDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE A REAL CONCERN AND FOR THE ONGOING SITUATION...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND WILL COVER MUCH OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY. THIS HANDLES WELL THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. THE POTENTIAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY EVENT FOR LATE WEEK IS TOO FAR OUT TO DEAL WITH HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT BUT MERITS A CLOSE WATCH. DESPITE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONT SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH THRU WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN ON TEMPS BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH OF ONE TO PLACE A HOLD ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE TEMPS IS LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PCPN CHANCES FOR SOME AREAS. THE ANTICIPATED DROP IN HUMIDITY FROM MONDAY WILL MAKE ANY TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF A HEAT ADVISORY ENOUGH IN DOUBT TO NOT TOUCH HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. PCPN CHANCES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOME SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IL...WHICH WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF WHAT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND SOME AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WHAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD INITIALLY BE WELL CAPPED BUT THIS CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH ON APPROACH OF THE FRONT WHERE IT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE RIDING BACK NORTH THRU OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS. TES && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION. FOR OVERNIGHT, HRRR AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THUDERSTORMS COMPLEX FORMING OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. WILL THROW OUT THE OVERLY WET GFS. UIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE, ALBEIT A LOW ONE, SO WILL KEEP THE VCTS GOING. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HRRR AND NAM APPEAR TO BE THE BEST MODELS WITH THE PRECIPITAION PATTERN, AND THEY KEEP THE RAIN EAST OF STL. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND. JPK && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO- JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL- RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW- MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY. GLASS .LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OF OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLASS && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAKENING MCS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT UIN, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOUD REMAIN SOUTH OF STL IN THE OZARKS. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL TONIGHT, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF STL. JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE QUITE CAPPED WITH CONVECTION EAST OF STL. SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...UP TO 11-13 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO- JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL- RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW- MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY. GLASS .LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OR OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDENSDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLASS && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BROWNING && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO- JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL- RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL- ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW- MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY. GLASS .LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OR OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDENSDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLASS && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS LIKELY SLID SOUTH WITH THE COLD POOL GENERATED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS HAVE SAGGED SOUTH AND WEST INTO NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVE. TREND IS A SLOW SHRINKING AND THERE IS AND LESS REDEVELPMENT NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. ONCE THIS ENDS LITTLE EXPECTED OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME FOG IN QUINCY. MODELS PUSH FRONT FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY AND IF THIS HOLDS STORMS SUNDAY SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: STORMS TOO CLOSE SO WILL PUT IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. TREND HAS THE AREA SHRINKING AND DYING SO IT WILL BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JPK && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO- JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL- RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL- ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1130 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 1130AM UPDATE... POPS WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO DECIDED TO PLACE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A WETTING RAIN WHERE THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURS. MALIAWCO 930AM UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PUSHES EAST...FOLLOWING THE LATEST NAM. THE GFS HAS A DRIER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EXCEPT FOR JUST THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT YET HAVE BACKING FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TWEAK ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS SOLID. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT THE FORT PECK DAM HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO ONLY GO UP FROM THERE TO EXCEED 20 MPH. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES IN BETWEEN. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PUSHES EAST...FOLLOWING THE LATEST NAM. THE GFS HAS A DRIER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EXCEPT FOR JUST THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT YET HAVE BACKING FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TWEAK ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS SOLID. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT THE FORT PECK DAM HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO ONLY GO UP FROM THERE TO EXCEED 20 MPH. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES IN BETWEEN. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
350 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES IN BETWEEN. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS... CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
616 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRAW LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM WESTERN MEXICO INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER...AS THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WILL NOT QUITE HAVE MADE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST YET. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE RESULT. AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 90S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IN FORCE WITH SOME TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE WEEKEND. TURNING TO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BOUNDARY...DISCERNIBLE IN THE 0-2KM THETA-E FIELDS...IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THAT BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF 2000-4000J/KG WHILE THE GFS40 IS MUCH LOWER...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...THEN...WE WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WITH THE LOCATION OF THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ON THURSDAY...THE 0-2KM THETA-E PROJECTION INDICATES THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE BOUNDARY PRESSING EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE NAM12 SHOWS SURFACE- BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 5000J/KG OR HIGHER OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH 35-45KT OF SHEAR. THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AND STORMS WILL DECREASE AND END FROM THE WEST AND THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EASTERN NEBRASKA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS IN THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD...LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS IS LOW. THE TSTMS NEAR CHEYENNE COULD MOVE THROUGH SWRN NEB SOMETIME TONIGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. HOWEVER LITTLE EASTERN MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE 4 PM CDT AND A GENERALLY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE WEAK 850MB WINDS TONIGHT SHOWN IN THE RAP MODEL IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TSTMS MAY NOT AFFECT SWRN AND IF AT ALL...IN A GREATLY WEAKENED STATE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAYLOR LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OUT THERE ARE VERY HOT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 AT 3 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS AGAIN MONDAY FOR QUITE A FEW COUNTIES IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS VARYING BETWEEN THE LOWER 70S IN OUR WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR EAST. WE ALSO HAVE THE SPORADIC IOWA AWOS VALUES IN THE LOW 80S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A TROUGH IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE BOUNDARY MONDAY. COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY ONCE AGAIN SO DID HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE LOWER AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WE CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES. CONVECTION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE...THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AID CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES OF TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053- 066>068-078-088>093. IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS A RATHER CLASSIC MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A RETURN TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR LUBBOCK TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BOTH 18Z NAM12 AND 20Z HRRR PICKING UP ON PERTURBATION/VORT LOBE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR SE ARIZONA. BOTH MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE INTO SWRN AND WEST CENTRAL NM AFTER MIDNIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THERE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD MORE EASILY INTO THE NE AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM THURSDAY...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE DOWN DAY THERE. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HANGS TOUGH ELSEWHERE. 12Z GFS PROGGING AN INCREASE IN SELY WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DOLORES. THIS INCREASING FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND SRN ARIZONA. 12Z GFS GOES SO FAR AS TO DEVELOP A WARM CORE LOW OVER SE AZ/WRN NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SUCH A FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE IN HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO FAR OUT AT THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF A FEATURE YET TO DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. SUNDAY COULD BE THE NEXT DOWNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WWD INTO SRN AZ. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AS 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER SE NM...KEEPING WRN AND NRN NM ACTIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CROP TODAY IS GREATER IN NUMBER AND AT LEAST AS VIGOROUS AS WAS THE CASE SAT...MOST TODAY BEING ACROSS THE WEST TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA AND INTO EAST AZ. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH FCST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TO BE THU TO FRI AND MAY BE SHORTER IN DURATION THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED THE PAST DAY OR TWO. LESS INDICATION THAN 12 TO 24 HRS AGO OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE NM NEAR MON TO MON NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH IF CONVECTION DOES RAMP UP IN SE CO THERE STILL WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A STORM COMPLEX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR NE. IF IT DOES NOT HAPPEN THEN STORM COVERAGE IN NE NM MAY NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH. FCST MODELS FOR THE MOST PART CONTINUING TO DELAY...A FEW EVEN ELIMINATE...THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE STATE... LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WEST HALF OF NM. NEXT WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL INDICATED AS MOVING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE WELL TO OUR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST NORTH AND WEST THROUGH WED...WITH SOME DECREASE POSS THU. 43 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE CENTER OF UPPER LVL HIGH REMAINS TO EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER TROF JUST OFF WEST COAST AND THIS COMBO IS KEEPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TO N CENTRAL NM. SHRA AND TSRA TO INCREASE TO SCT OR EVEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AT LEAST A FEW REACHING THE LOWER TERRAIN AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER TSRA. ISOLD STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SE AND E CENTRAL NM DUE TO TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS CORRECT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 58 85 60 86 / 20 20 20 10 DULCE........................... 50 80 50 79 / 20 20 20 30 CUBA............................ 51 77 53 75 / 30 40 30 40 GALLUP.......................... 52 82 53 81 / 40 40 30 20 EL MORRO........................ 51 78 52 76 / 40 60 30 40 GRANTS.......................... 53 80 54 79 / 30 40 30 50 QUEMADO......................... 55 79 56 78 / 30 40 30 40 GLENWOOD........................ 56 86 57 84 / 30 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 49 73 48 72 / 30 60 30 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 80 59 79 / 30 50 30 60 PECOS........................... 56 81 57 79 / 30 20 20 40 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 76 52 75 / 30 40 30 40 RED RIVER....................... 48 69 46 68 / 40 70 40 70 ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 71 51 70 / 40 60 40 70 TAOS............................ 51 80 51 79 / 30 20 20 20 MORA............................ 53 78 53 76 / 30 40 30 50 ESPANOLA........................ 57 86 57 84 / 30 10 20 30 SANTA FE........................ 59 82 60 81 / 20 10 20 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 85 59 84 / 20 10 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 86 65 86 / 20 5 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 88 68 88 / 20 5 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 90 63 90 / 10 5 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 89 66 88 / 20 5 10 20 LOS LUNAS....................... 59 90 61 88 / 20 5 10 20 RIO RANCHO...................... 63 89 65 88 / 20 5 20 20 SOCORRO......................... 63 92 63 91 / 20 10 10 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 83 59 82 / 20 20 20 30 TIJERAS......................... 56 85 56 84 / 20 10 20 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 86 51 85 / 10 5 5 10 CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 83 59 83 / 20 10 10 10 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 85 59 84 / 20 5 10 10 CARRIZOZO....................... 62 89 62 90 / 20 5 10 5 RUIDOSO......................... 59 81 59 81 / 20 20 10 30 CAPULIN......................... 59 83 57 82 / 40 20 30 50 RATON........................... 57 86 56 84 / 30 10 20 30 SPRINGER........................ 58 88 57 86 / 30 10 10 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 55 83 55 82 / 20 20 10 20 CLAYTON......................... 65 95 63 92 / 20 5 10 20 ROY............................. 62 89 61 88 / 20 5 5 20 CONCHAS......................... 67 98 67 97 / 10 5 0 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 66 95 66 94 / 10 5 5 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 0 5 5 CLOVIS.......................... 66 95 65 95 / 20 0 5 5 PORTALES........................ 67 97 67 97 / 20 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 67 97 67 96 / 20 0 10 0 ROSWELL......................... 66 99 67 98 / 5 0 5 0 PICACHO......................... 62 93 62 92 / 20 5 10 10 ELK............................. 60 85 60 85 / 20 10 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE CENTER OF UPPER LVL HIGH REMAINS TO EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER TROF JUST OFF WEST COAST AND THIS COMBO IS KEEPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TO N CENTRAL NM. SHRA AND TSRA TO INCREASE TO SCT OR EVEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AT LEAST A FEW REACHING THE LOWER TERRAIN AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER TSRA. ISOLD STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SE AND E CENTRAL NM DUE TO TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS CORRECT. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015... .SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST INACTIVE DAY. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST. THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO THE EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ALONG WEST COAST HOLDING PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z WRN AND NRN HIGHER TERRAIN THEN TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NE HIGHLANDS PRIOR TO 13/00Z. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. ISOLD STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. EAST CENTRAL/SE NM TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS CORRECT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015... .SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST INACTIVE DAY. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST. THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST INACTIVE DAY. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST. THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE -SHRA/TSRA LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH TO SOME LIGHT RAIN THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY -TSRA OR TWO OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN VERY SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR 15KTS...AND FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUYER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 87 59 88 60 / 50 30 20 20 DULCE........................... 79 51 80 50 / 30 30 30 30 CUBA............................ 79 52 79 53 / 50 30 30 30 GALLUP.......................... 81 52 83 54 / 50 40 40 30 EL MORRO........................ 77 50 80 52 / 70 40 50 30 GRANTS.......................... 80 52 83 54 / 60 30 30 30 QUEMADO......................... 79 54 80 55 / 70 30 50 30 GLENWOOD........................ 86 56 87 57 / 50 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 77 49 78 48 / 40 30 40 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 59 82 59 / 50 30 40 30 PECOS........................... 81 57 82 57 / 30 30 20 20 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 53 76 52 / 40 30 40 30 RED RIVER....................... 70 43 68 43 / 40 40 50 40 ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 49 71 49 / 40 40 50 40 TAOS............................ 81 52 82 52 / 20 30 30 30 MORA............................ 78 54 78 53 / 40 30 30 30 ESPANOLA........................ 86 56 88 57 / 20 30 30 20 SANTA FE........................ 82 58 85 60 / 20 20 20 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 57 88 59 / 20 20 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 63 88 65 / 30 20 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 65 90 67 / 30 20 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 92 65 / 30 20 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 62 91 66 / 30 20 10 20 LOS LUNAS....................... 89 62 90 65 / 30 20 10 10 RIO RANCHO...................... 88 64 91 65 / 30 20 20 20 SOCORRO......................... 89 63 90 63 / 30 20 20 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 58 85 59 / 40 30 20 20 TIJERAS......................... 85 59 87 60 / 40 30 10 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 54 87 54 / 30 20 10 10 CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 58 85 58 / 40 20 10 10 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 58 84 60 / 30 20 10 10 CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 89 63 / 30 20 10 10 RUIDOSO......................... 79 60 81 59 / 40 20 20 10 CAPULIN......................... 86 59 86 58 / 10 20 10 20 RATON........................... 88 57 88 56 / 5 20 10 20 SPRINGER........................ 88 58 88 58 / 5 20 10 10 LAS VEGAS....................... 84 56 84 55 / 20 20 20 10 CLAYTON......................... 95 65 95 63 / 0 10 5 10 ROY............................. 88 62 89 61 / 5 10 10 10 CONCHAS......................... 96 67 98 67 / 5 10 5 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 94 66 95 66 / 10 10 10 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 98 68 100 68 / 0 5 5 5 CLOVIS.......................... 93 65 96 66 / 0 5 0 5 PORTALES........................ 94 66 96 66 / 0 5 0 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 93 67 96 67 / 5 5 5 5 ROSWELL......................... 97 67 100 67 / 0 5 0 5 PICACHO......................... 89 62 91 62 / 20 10 10 5 ELK............................. 82 60 85 60 / 20 10 20 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE -SHRA/TSRA LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH TO SOME LIGHT RAIN THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY -TSRA OR TWO OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN VERY SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR 15KTS...AND FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON... FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS AND SHUTS DOWN CHANCES THERE. A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW...AND HOLD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONLY THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... A MONSOON MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS. TODAY`S ROUND OF STORMS FAVORS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WHERE SHEAR IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CROP OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SOCORRO... BELEN AND ALBUQUERQUE. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO BETWEEN 23-01Z. LOOKING MORE LIKE A GOOD BET HERE IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO WITH A LAST LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 3 PM MDT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DIFFERENT THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH... CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES... MAINLY EAST...AND A FOCUSING OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING-IN. SO...EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SLOWER MOTION TO TILT THE THREAT TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND BACK DOWN MON/TUE AS THE UPPER HIGH BACKS OFF TO THE EAST A BIT...ALLOWING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO TILT BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA... LEAVING-OUT ONLY THE SOUTHEAST IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. A FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT THE IDEAL PLUME POSITIONING WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUR FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD CLIMO FOR FRI/SAT. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DOWN TREND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...WITH LESS ACTIVITY EAST CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT...FINALLY REACHING ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WHILE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...WITH AREAS OF 5 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. VENTILATION TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON SURGE FROM MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAVORED THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES TODAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES. AS THE UPPER CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE PLUME WILL BE NUDGED TO THE WEST AS WELL SUCH THAT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE WETTING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THERE ON MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY COULD ALSO HELP EXTEND THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH COULD WEAKEN/FLATTEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOME ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MONSOON PLUME COULD REPOSITION OVER NEW MEXICO...THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME. 05 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
231 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A A QUICK GLANCE AT THE CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN MCS IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION SO I SLIGHTLY REDUCED OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS FORECASTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR MASS TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SO I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY... MILD MID-JULY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED 500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800 AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV 4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO THE HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER CANADA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST EVENING. EXPECTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM 13Z-15Z SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 00Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTING TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOCALLY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK. 12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER. 00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A A QUICK GLANCE AT THE CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN MCS IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION SO I SLIGHTLY REDUCED OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS FORECASTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR MASS TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SO I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY... MILD MID-JULY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED 500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800 AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV 4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO THE HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECK REMAININ IN PLACE. WITH CLOUD COVER NOT FORECASTING FOG FORMATION AT TAF SITES. WEAK FRONT TO NORTH FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN ONTARIO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. LATEST DATA CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHEAST NY AND VERMONT CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT TAF SITES DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES KSLK/KMPV, HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW OF HITTING INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE AND IN OUTER PERIOD OF TAF CYCLE SO OPTED TO KEEP THEM OUT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHWEST BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER SUNRISE. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK. 12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER. 00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
801 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM MONDAY... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE A L/W TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER THE SANDHILLS EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FEEDING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THIS BOUNDARY. THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT MID AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SO EXPECT THE SCATTERED STORMS TO EVENTUALLY GENERATE/BUILD WESTWARD INTO THIS SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS REGION SO ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORMS WHICH EXHIBIT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LOADING WILL HAVE THE THREAT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHEN THE PRECIP LOAD DESCENDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHICH HAS SEEN THE MOST HEATING TODAY. LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 02Z-4Z)...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN OH-NORTHERN KY WILL BE APPROACHING OUR NW COUNTIES. MAJORITY OF WRF MODELS DISSIPATE THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION...THOUGH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR DRAGS THIS SYSTEM (THOUGH IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER FORM) ACROSS THE REGION. GFS HAS HAD A STRONG SIGNAL THE PAST FEW RUNS A WELL...BRING THIS SYSTEM THOUGH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH END CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-30KTS WITH MLCAPE 400-800J/KG. THIS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF BROKEN BANDS WITH SOME BOWING FEATURES POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM MONDAY... ...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS PROBABLE TUESDAY NIGHT... CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OR DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HEATING OF THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL GENERATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY AFTERNOON. A STEADY SW WIND AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE MANNER OF A MECHANISM ALOFT TO TRIGGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. BULK SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...AND MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL 45-50KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS ENHANCED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40KTS. A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL INITIATE/SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. DUE TO THE STRONG HEATING EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE ABNORMALLY STRONG BULK SHEAR SUGGEST A GOOD PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MONDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC SFC BOUNDARY ARE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF I-95 BY 18Z WED...SO LOOK FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO WIND DOWN DURING THE MORNING TO MID-DAY PERIOD WED. WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE LAGGING...HIGHS ON WED SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW-MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO NC FOR THU AND FRI...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WITH READINGS NEAR OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BACK TO CLIMO AND PERHAPS ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CENTER OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MOVES WEST AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROUND THE RIDGE TOP AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 755 PM MONDAY... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... MAINLY AFFECTING KGSO/KINT. AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS A GIVEN LOCATION EXPECT WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS AT LEAST INTO THE 25 TO 40 KT RANGE... WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC BY AROUND 9 PM... THEN QUICKLY PROGRESSING EAST AND SOUTHWARD. PATCHY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. EXPECT WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH (TO MAYBE EVEN 30 MPH) BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION HIGHLY PROBABLE IN THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES/CBL NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...77/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEST OF DEVILS LAKE...WITH VERY LITTLE NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP ISOLD STORMS IN ACROSS THE NORTH BUT REMOVE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER MAY SEE SOME INCREASE FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SRN CANADA...AND BOTH NAM AND HRRR MIN TEMPS WERE A BIT WARMER THAN PREV FCST SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED DID USE THE NAM12 AS A STARTING POINT AND DROPPED THEM A COUPLE OF DEG TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. OVERALL MID 60S LOWS SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE EVENING CONVECTION. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING NW TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WILL ADDRESS LOCALIZED CONVECTION WITH HIGHER POPS AND KEEP LOW CHANCE ELSE WHERE. ALSO INCREASING POPS A BIT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST OVER ROSEAU AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES. NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER IS STILL HIGH (3 TO 4 UNITS) OVER NORTHEAST ND AND HAVE HAD REPORTS OF WEAK FUNNELS OVER THE LAST HOUR (NEAR WARROAD...A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHEST AFOREMENTIONED VALUES...SO CONTINUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING POTENTIAL FOR WEAK FUNNELS ACROSS THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA. THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE HOWEVER WITH UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR STORMS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN BLO SEVERE LIMITS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WEAK FUNNELS WITH THESE STORMS AS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROTATION AND WEAK FUNNELS. SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA SO A FEW STORMS COULD PULSE UP CLOSE TO SEVERE LIMITS. WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS HOLD UP. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND HOLDS INTO MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWING WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSES WHICH MAY RIDE THROUGH RIDGE. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TOMORROW MAY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 A STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL BUT WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF DAILY CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY ZONAL OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS...ALTHOUGH NARROWING IN ON THE BEST TIME FRAME IS DIFFICULT DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS. ALTHOUGH HAVE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS...PLENTY OF DRY HOURS ARE EXPECTED. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 VFR CONDS WITH LOCALIZED TS POSSIBLE AT TVF AND DVL. CURRENT RADAR INDICATING STORMS STILL TOO FAR TO IMPACT AERODROMES BUT IF THEY BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THESE SITES...WILL MAKE NECESSARY AMENDMENTS. CURRENT MOVEMENT OF STORMS NOT GIVING ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TOO MENTION IN EITHER TAFS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ONLY CHANGES WERE TO FINE TUNE POPS INTO MID AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 2 AREAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA IS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH THE STRONGER AREA INITIALLY NEAR THE MN/SD/ND BORDER AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 CONVECTION CLOSE TO EXITING THE FAR EAST AND WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. PULLED POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD. THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE 08Z. AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90 FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND MENTION IN THE WX STORY. TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. EXPECT CIGS AT ALL SITES TO BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC HEATING...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO BE AROUND 4-6 KFT AS SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...RESULTING IN ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE FOR LOW BASED CU DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 21Z-02Z TIME FRAME AS BEST DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKES COUNTRY OF MN...AND AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...AT A MINIMUM BROUGHT IN VCTS DURING THE PERIOD MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CONTINUED SRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WITH ERRATIC WINDS AND LLWS INVOF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 CONVECTION CLOSE TO EXITING THE FAR EAST AND WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. PULLED POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD. THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE 08Z. AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90 FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND MENTION IN THE WX STORY. TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 KTVF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THINK STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE KBJI AREA SO KEPT A MENTION OUT FROM THERE. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL GET THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A FEW MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING IN SOUTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR KFAR. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR IN THE 6000-10000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER RANGE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD. THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE 08Z. AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90 FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND MENTION IN THE WX STORY. TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 KTVF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THINK STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE KBJI AREA SO KEPT A MENTION OUT FROM THERE. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL GET THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A FEW MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING IN SOUTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR KFAR. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR IN THE 6000-10000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER RANGE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD. THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE 08Z. AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90 FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND MENTION IN THE WX STORY. TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ALL SITES VFR EXCEPT KDVL...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE SOME VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE STORM WHICH WILL BE DONE BY 07Z OR SO. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT WHICH TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED IS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WILL AMEND FOR VCTS IF NEEDED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...DK/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
823 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY. MORE DISTURBANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE 800 PM UPDATE... BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO LINE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING POCKETS OF TREE DAMAGE. COULDNT FIND ANY ASOS OR MESONETS IN OUR AREA THAT RECORDED GUSTS PAST 48 MPH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EVEN THESE WINDS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TOPPLE SOME TREES GIVEN HOW WET OUR SOILS ARE. ALLOWED THE SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CLEANED UP THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. EVEN AN INCH OF RAIN CAUSED PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW CREEKS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING. AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH S/W TROF INTERACTING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE NW TO SE LLVL THETA E GRADIENT OVER THE OH VALLEY...GENERALLY JUST W OF OUR CWA. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER OUR AIRMASS IS...WOULD THINK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD SNIFF OUT THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN C KY VS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE TAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT EVEN IT PUTS A HVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ALLOWED HIGHER POPS TO WORK IN TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES. ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES OF LATE. IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE EARLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH QPF NEARING 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. COORDINATED WITH NEAR TERM FORECASTER ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DRYER WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STILL FIGURING ON MVFR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM 03Z TO 06Z...BUT UNSURE IF THEY STAY SCATTERED OR DEVELOP A CEILING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MOSTLY CEILINGS. SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT GREAT. SO...HAVE SOME MVFR SHRA MENTION IN THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MOSTLY AFTER 21Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG TO SVR CONVECTIVE LINE TO MOVE THRU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG IN QUESTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AND MUGGY AIR OVERNIGHT. AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING. IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>009- 013>018-024>029-033>038. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/30 SHORT TERM...MZ/26 LONG TERM...JB/MZ AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... LINGERING STORMS ARE FIRING IN A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BEHIND THE LARGE SWATH OF STORMS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR PORTSMOUTH AND WEST OF COLUMBUS AND HAVE A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. MORE STORMS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY THAT EXISTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPSTREAM STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND MAY PERSIST AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS EVENING...THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX WITH HOW THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT BUT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR MODEL. IF THE LINE DEVELOPS...THE OVERNIGHT THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND COULD CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THERE WILL BE A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA. A DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT AND HAVE ADDED SEVERE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AND HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST...HWO...AND HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR 70. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR 100 ACROSS EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ATOP BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS WE/LL ACTUALLY GET A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THOUGH IT WOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE IF A LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OHIO ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOL DAYS OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CLIMBING BY FRIDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...DRAGGING A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON - BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS FORCING IS WEAK. THE WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES WASHING OUT A BIT. TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER THAN WE/VE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SOME PRETTY STEAMY AIR COMES WITH IT - SO IT WILL BE MUGGY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROUGHING TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEEMS ENOUGH THERE WITH THE WARM/MUGGY AIR THAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS...CIGS...WIND GUSTS...AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A LULL AT TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP. FOR MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN H500 SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM LOOKS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER BRINGING MOST OF THE ENERGY BY 12Z TUESDAY. PREFER THE CONSENSUS FROM GFS/ECMWF. THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS... SOME WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE CODED LIKELY POPS FOR BOTH DAYS WITH EACH SYSTEM. CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUES DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOR WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LESS NUMEROUS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS ON FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD BRING SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED WIDESPREAD DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH WPC FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE GRADIENTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO CONTAIN SOME WIND GUSTS AND INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NEED UPDATES. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOILS REMAIN QUITE WET. WITH THAT IN MIND...BROUGHT IN IFR FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE:MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. AFTER 18Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORTWWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP. FOR MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE GRADIENTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO CONTAIN SOME WIND GUSTS AND INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NEED UPDATES. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOILS REMAIN QUITE WET. WITH THAT IN MIND...BROUGHT IN IFR FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. AFTER 18Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
649 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... DECAYING MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. NORTHERN PORTION SHOULD FALL APART FAIRLY QUICKLY AND IS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD TOP WARMING...BUT KEEP POPS COMING INTO THE TRI STATE AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING INITIATION BOUNDARIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OUTFLOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE CONVECTIVE INDUCING ENVIRONMENT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID SUMMER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE FIRST FEATURE TO TRACK TODAY IS AN AXIS DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEATURE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL IN THE HRRR INITIALIZATION WHICH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING AS IT ENTERS THE CWA...BUT THIS OLDER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE OF A FACTOR ALONG THE TUG FORK VALLEY AND WEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL SEE SORT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. MAY NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE KANAWHA VALLEY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A NIGHT TIME MCS. STEERING FLOWS TRY TO TAKE THIS FURTHER TO OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...BUT LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFTERNOON MAY DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC SETTING TONIGHT. SPC CARRIES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOG WILL LIFT...BUT HAS HUNG ON DESPITE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. AFTER THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION CAN FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL VARY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS LIKELY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE CONVECTIVE INDUCING ENVIRONMENT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID SUMMER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE FIRST FEATURE TO TRACK TODAY IS AN AXIS DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEATURE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL IN THE HRRR INITIALIZATION WHICH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING AS IT ENTERS THE CWA...BUT THIS OLDER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE OF A FACTOR ALONG THE TUG FORK VALLEY AND WEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL SEE SORT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. MAY NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE KANAWHA VALLEY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A NIGHT TIME MCS. STEERING FLOWS TRY TO TAKE THIS FURTHER TO OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...BUT LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFTERNOON MAY DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC SETTING TONIGHT. SPC CARRIES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BELIEF IS THAT PKB AND HTS WILL GET INTO TOO MUCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OFF THE MCS TO THE NORTHWEST TO GET INTO ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR MIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HAVE CRW...CKB...AND EKN AT IFR OR WORSE. CONVECTION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1102 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE EARLIER...NEARLY SOLID LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS /WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/...HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO 2 OR 3 CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION /ONE ENTERING WARREN COUNTY...AND THE SECOND/LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/. BOTH AREAS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT/MID LEVEL VORT MAXES. THESE POCKETS OF ENERGY /ABOVE A SLOWLY NEWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT/ WILL LIKELY DRIFT ENE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS PWATS INCREASE BY ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVERNIGHT /TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES/...SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...BEFORE REACHING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AFTER 08Z TUESDAY. A MUCH MILDER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S REMAIN STEADY...OR SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 60F IN THE COLDEST RURAL VALLEYS UP NORTH...TO ABOUT 66 OR 67F IN THE METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES BRINGS A LOW AND SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL BE SPLITTING THE STATE NW/SE EARLY...WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY /WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT SOME SORT OF SECONDARY LOW WILL TRY TO FORM NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY LATE DAY/. PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD...GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J BY AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH PWATS QUICKLY SURGING UP OVER 1.5"...SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION COULD PRESENT LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .50" TO 1.00" POSSIBLE. DON/T PLAN ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...JUST HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IN OUR DISCUSSIONS AND MENTIONED SOME TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW MID JULY NORMALS IN NW HALF. HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE LWR/MID 80S IN THE SE. MAIN COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS CWA FROM GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT...BUT WEAK LOW ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH. WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SE WITH LOWS HANGING NEAR 70F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED "DEEP" SFC LOW ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MIGRATE EWD THRU QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST. CENTRAL PA IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR /JULY 11-20/. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WED NGT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE DRY WX DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A VERY LOW RISK (20% OR LESS) OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN ALLEGHENIES. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NRN TIER LKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK TROUGHING LKLY ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DWINDLING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST KJST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A DROP TO IFR VSBY AS TSRA COMES THROUGH BTWN 03Z-05Z. KBFD/KAOO COULD EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR DROP BTWN 04Z-06Z. FOR LATER TONIGHT...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT LOW CIGS RESULTING FROM MOIST SSERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS KBFD IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDS. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDS OVR MOST OTHER CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS...MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS TO LIFT BY LATE AM...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THRU THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN. HOWEVER...SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE PM HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN SPOTS. OUTLOOK... WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE EARLIER...NEARLY SOLID LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS /WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/...HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO 2 OR 3 CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION /ONE ENTERING WARREN COUNTY...AND THE SECOND/LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/. BOTH AREAS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT/MID LEVEL VORT MAXES. THESE POCKETS OF ENERGY /ABOVE A SLOWLY NEWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT/ WILL LIKELY DRIFT ENE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS PWATS INCREASE BY ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVERNIGHT /TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES/...SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...BEFORE REACHING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AFTER 08Z TUESDAY. A MUCH MILDER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S REMAIN STEADY...OR SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 60F IN THE COLDEST RURAL VALLEYS UP NORTH...TO ABOUT 66 OR 67F IN THE METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES BRINGS A LOW AND SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL BE SPLITTING THE STATE NW/SE EARLY...WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY /WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT SOME SORT OF SECONDARY LOW WILL TRY TO FORM NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY LATE DAY/. PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD...GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J BY AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH PWATS QUICKLY SURGING UP OVER 1.5"...SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION COULD PRESENT LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .50" TO 1.00" POSSIBLE. DON/T PLAN ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...JUST HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IN OUR DISCUSSIONS AND MENTIONED SOME TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW MID JULY NORMALS IN NW HALF. HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE LWR/MID 80S IN THE SE. MAIN COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS CWA FROM GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT...BUT WEAK LOW ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH. WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SE WITH LOWS HANGING NEAR 70F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED "DEEP" SFC LOW ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MIGRATE EWD THRU QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST. CENTRAL PA IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR /JULY 11-20/. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WED NGT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE DRY WX DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A VERY LOW RISK (20% OR LESS) OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN ALLEGHENIES. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NRN TIER LKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK TROUGHING LKLY ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDELY SCT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING AS SUN SETS. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS COULD SUSTAIN SCT SHRA INTO LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT LOW CIGS RESULTING FROM MOIST SSERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS KBFD IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDS. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDS OVR MOST OTHER CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS...MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS OVER NORTHERN PA TO LIFT BY LATE AM...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THRU THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN. HOWEVER...SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE PM HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN SPOTS. OUTLOOK... WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. COMPACT S/WV OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE SEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY ESEWD THRU 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO THE LAURELS BTWN 21-00Z. HOWEVER NEAR/SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN A NW-SE ZONE FROM ERN OH SEWD THRU SWRN PA INTO NRN WV/WRN MD/NRN VA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS BEYOND THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BELOW AVG...AND MUCH OF THE CWA /PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ COULD END UP MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY...AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD INTO NY STATE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE OVER MT THIS AFTERNOON CRESTS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO DY3/TUESDAY. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LIKE THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO P.M. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING DOMINATES THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER PA REINFORCING HIGHER PWAT AIR AT SAME TIME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS WEAK OVER CENTRAL PA. BY WED NIGHT INTO THU THE NAEFS SHOWS THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST IN FAVOR OF RISING HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR. WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES THIS IS AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF. LATE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS A WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST AGAIN LIFTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAGGLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS PA ALL WEEK. FRI WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE COULD GET INTO A "RING-OF-FIRE" TYPE PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE SERN US AND WE GET SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS GIVING WAY TO A THICKENING MID LVL CLOUD DECK. HRRR/COSPA SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER HLG/PIT TO APPROACH JST BY 00Z. THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR. OUTLOOK... MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. THUR...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...ROSS/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. COMPACT S/WV OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE SEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY ESEWD THRU 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO THE LAURELS BTWN 21-00Z. HOWEVER NEAR/SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN A NW-SE ZONE FROM ERN OH SEWD THRU SWRN PA INTO NRN WV/WRN MD/NRN VA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS BEYOND THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BELOW AVG...AND MUCH OF THE CWA /PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ COULD END UP MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY...AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD INTO NY STATE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE OVER MT THIS AFTERNOON CRESTS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO DY3/TUESDAY. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LIKE THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO P.M. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING DOMINATES THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER PA REINFORCING HIGHER PWAT AIR AT SAME TIME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS WEAK OVER CENTRAL PA. BY WED NIGHT INTO THU THE NAEFS SHOWS THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST IN FAVOR OF RISING HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR. WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES THIS IS AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF. LATE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS A WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST AGAIN LIFTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAGGLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS PA ALL WEEK. FRI WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE COULD GET INTO A "RING-OF-FIRE" TYPE PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE SERN US AND WE GET SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS GIVING WAY TO A THICKENING MID LVL CLOUD DECK. HRRR/COSPA SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER HLG/PIT TO APPROACH JST BY 00Z. THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR. OUTLOOK... MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. THUR...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1045 PM...THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE FOR ALL OUR ZONES. OVERNIGHT...CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS IL/IN...WHERE A DIGGING TROF IS INTERSECTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THESE STORMS CONGEALING INTO ANOTHER MCS...AND TAKES THAT ACTIVITY SOUTH TO THE TN/NC BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OTHER CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND...EXCEPT GENERALLY KEEP THE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST ACRS CENTRAL KY/TN. THE 00Z NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE UPSTREAM AIR HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THIS EVENING/S MCS...I THINK THE HRRR IS NOT THE WAY TO GO...AND EXPECT ONLY A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC OF ANY CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWFA THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SO I HAVE CUT BACK POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. THE FCST FOR TUESDAY LOOKS TO DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SECOND MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SUFFER DUE DO EITHER ITS CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE NC ZONES BEING CONVECTION FREE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT MCS TRACK IS PROGGED BEYOND THE PERIOD AND WILL BE AIDED BY THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PLACED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST IN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNSTABLE/SHEARED AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OF 215 PM MONDAY...MAIN ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TUE NIGHT WHEN A RATHER RARE JULY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SWINGING SE FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS RATHER MUTED IN ITS QPF RESPONSE TUE NIGHT AS IT LIMITS CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH DEEP LAYER NW FLOW IN PLACE. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL INDEED BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS JUST SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS SURVIVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WIND SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED. AFTER THE BKN-SCT CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSES...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY WED. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN LINE ON WED...AND SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WED SHOULD BE DRY THANKS TO THE NW FLOW AND RESULTANT LOWER RH`S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES ON THU AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE NE/E. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM PLACING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TRACK BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND AND TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE SE STATES. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GENERALLY CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH A LEE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. THIS SET UP IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH MONDAY AND SUGGESTS A MAINLY DIURNAL MODE TO THE CONVECTION WHICH COMMENCES ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD ADVECT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT KCLT...THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT 3-4 HOURS WILL BE CONVECTION. FIRST WITH SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINAL. SECOND...A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS TRYING TO CROSS THE NC MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE LINE WILL AT LEAST REACH KCLT AS A DECAYING BLOB OF PRECIP WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. WILL TEMPO IN A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPACT AROUND THE TERMINAL FROM 01-03Z. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THINGS TO WIND DOWN WITH MAINLY JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS AND WINDS CAN GO CALM. WILL LEAVE OUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS. ON TUESDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND ORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER COMPLEX...PUSHING INTO NC IN THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SO WILL ADD A PROB30 STARTING AT 21Z. ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE. KAVL AND KHKY HAVE BEST CHC OF STRONG IMPACTS FROM A LINE OF STORMS JUST TO THEIR NORTH AT TIME OF 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE LINE IS WEAKENING...AND MAY NOT SURVIVE TO THE UPSTATE SITES. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENUF INSTBY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POPPING UP AHEAD OF THAT LINE. SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS WITH TEMPOS AT KGMU/KGSP. STRONGER IMPACT WORDING FOR KAVL AND KHKY. AFTER THE STORMS DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY JUST LEFTOVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS IL/IN WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SURVIVING TO ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS AND WINDS CAN REMAIN LIGHT. THE BEST CHC LOOKS TO BE AT KAVL...WHERE I WILL PUT AN MVFR VSBY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND TRACK INTO THE AREA IN THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THOSE STORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN. SO WILL HAVE PROB30 AT ALL SITES STARTING AROUND 21Z. THERE WILL BE BETTER WIND GUST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTN...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. THEN...OF COURSE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WITHIN ANY TSRA. OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 85% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG SHORT TERM...LG LONG TERM...LG AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 425 PM...HAVE BACKED OFF POP FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS. THE LATEST RAP AND LAPS CAPE ANALYSES SHOW DECREASING INSTBY AND INCREASING CIN ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA THANKS TO THE THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY TSTMS...BUT THE WINDOW SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACRS KY/TN MAY REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO WILL KEEP A HIGHER POP THERE. ANYTHING REACHING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY BE ON A DISSIPATING TREND GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTBY. AT 245 PM...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DISSIPATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC MTNS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD MCS. A THICK SHIELD OF DEBRIS CIRRUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA...WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CU EAST OF THE MTNS. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY TEMPS COUPLED WITH SLOW DEWPOINT RECOVER HAS LEFT THE I-77 CORRIDOR STABLE. AREAS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MAY RANGE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING DEEPER CONVECTION. THE TIME HAS COME TO DEPART FROM A CAM AND NAM SCENARIO OF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD MCS COLD POOL...I WILL LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT...UNSETTLED NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A FEW STRAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN BORDER. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 70S EAST. ON MONDAY...EXPECTING THE HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE...WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUN SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE STEADILY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF H85 WAA. IN ADDITION...SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...YIELDING SEVERAL DEGREES OF DEWPOINT RECOVERY. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING H5 HEIGHTS...TEMPS PEAKING 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE MID LEVELS...RESULTING IN BRISK STEERING FLOW TO THE SE. I EXPECT THAT TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CARRIED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON DEEP INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR...A FEW SVR TSRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE... WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES (S/W`S) RIPPLE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SUITE OF MODELS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERING IN TIMING/EXACT LOCATIONS OF SAID S/W`S...HAVE A SIMILAR THEME OF BRING A PACKET OF ENERGY ACROSS OUR FA MONDAY NIGHT. THE ENERGY ALOFT...WITH DPVA...SHOULD INTERCEPT INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES AND ALLOW CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY LOCAL COLD POOL INTERACTIONS WITH A MICROBURST/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WE WILL HAVE OUR HIGHEST POPS IN THE NC/FAR NE TN MOUNTAINS...WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE SHOWING EXTREME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEPARATED FROM THE ACTION EXPECTED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. UPSHOT WE WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL POP DISTRIBUTION... WITH POPS INCREASING UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING DOWN. THE SLIGHT RISK MONDAY LOOKS WELL PLACED BASED ON VARIOUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. WE DO NOT PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE GFS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE SCHEME BLOW-UP ALLOWING DAYBREAK CONVECTION TO HIT OUR NORTHERN FA. TRYING TO SENSIBLY PUT TOGETHER OUR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON S/W TIMING AND COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. WE ARE GOING TO TRY AND FOLLOW THE PRIMARY S/W AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. AGAIN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE WEST IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO START...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH...MAY SEND AN OUTFLOW AND KICK OFF THE PROCESS. ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING AN UPTICK IN POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS TIMING DIFFERENCES FILTER IN. NEVERTHELESS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE SUCH THAT PERHAPS ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. A DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE FRONTAL PATTERN TREND LEADS TO KEEPING CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FAVORED THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE TN. WE HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSELY THIS SECTION... WHICH MAINTAINS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z THURSDAY JUST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY CLEAN...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODEST DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO POPS WERE KEPT NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. FROM THIS POINT ON MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES...SO THE FORECAST IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RETROGRESSES BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOISTEN THE AIRMASS...LIKELY DRIVING UP POPS ONCE AGAIN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO...AND INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM EVEN MORE TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WAVES OF THICK DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. CONVECTION FROM AN OLD MCS WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH 20Z. CAMS INDICATE THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MTNS BETWEEN 20-21Z...AS THE OLD COLD POOL PLOWS EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND CAPE ANALYSIS THE CAMS SCENARIO REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...I WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OLD TAFS AND INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. AFTER THIS EVENING...THE CONCERN FOR FOG WILL REMAIN WHERE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KAVL SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST CHC FOR FOG...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH 4SM BETWEEN 10Z TO 12Z. ON MONDAY...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE CAPE...I WILL ADD A PROB30 EAST OF I-77 DURING THE FINAL HOURS OF THE TAF. OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEV NEAR TERM...ARK/NED SHORT TERM...TS LONG TERM...LEV AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT. ONLY THUNDERSTORM ACTION IN BOX IS NORTH OF BISMARCK ND WITH A LONE SUPERCELL ALONG THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IS SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT 800 MB...WITH A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE. IN FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURPRISINGLY LOW...ONLY 1.13 INCHES. WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MOST OF THE CU FIELD IS GONE...AND ANYTHING TRYING TO GET GOING IS DYING QUICK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE EAST OF MOBRIDGE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST AT OR AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DOES GET GOING AFTER 03Z...BUT ITS BRIEF BEFORE TURNING SW AND STRONGEST FARTHER EAST NEAR THE MN BORDER. THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE BUT IF NOTHING IS GOING BY 03Z...MAY HAVE TO CANCEL IT. MINOR UPDATES MADE TO GRIDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 700MB READINGS ARE IN THE +8 TO +11C RANGE...WITH WARMEST READINGS OVERTOP THE DRY LINE BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70F...ENOUGH TO GENERATE OVER 4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WINDS THROUGH THE PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SPC SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. POOR OVERALL CONFIDENCE STEMS FORM THE LACK OF ANY UPPER WAVE...AND A LACK OF CONVECTION BEING GENERATED IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE WITH ONLY THE MOST RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR DEPICTING ANY STORMS. BEST ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK THE CAP...WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S. A MORE DISCERNIBLE WAVE IS EVIDENT FOR SUNDAY. THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...SO TEMPERATURES COULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 100. WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT FETCH OUT OF THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE REGION AND MORE SMOKE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON STORM MONDAY THANKS TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF S/W ENERGY AS A DECENT JET DIGS A TROF INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRETTY DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME DRYNESS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING KATY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-011-018>023. MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...MOHR SHORT TERM...CONNELLY LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FROM DEMING WEST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH HAS PRETTY MUCH SNUFFED OUT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS...WILL REMAIN OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN TO FAR EAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MOST OF THE BORDERLAND. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION SO FAR IS OCCURRING ABOUT WHERE WE THOUGHT...OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SUPPRESSED ANY ACTION OVER THE EASTERN LOWLANDS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON BOTH ENDS OF THE CWA BUT LITTLE IN BETWEEN DUE TO THE HIGH. HRRR SHOWS NICE OUTFLOW FROM ARIZONA MOVING EAST TO AT LEAST DEMING BY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL RUNS ON THIS FOR CONSISTENCY...THOUGH GUST SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED LAST RUN OR TWO. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S STILL AROUND 1.0-1.1 INCH ACROSS THE AREA SO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT MUCH THE SAME MONDAY AGAIN AS UPPER HIGH JUST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. FOR MONDAY AIRMASS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY MOUNTAINS AND DEMING WEST...THOUGH PW`S OF 1+ INCH ONLY FROM DEMING WEST. BY TUESDAY UPPER HIGH IS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSION SHOULD EASE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...POPS BACK IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS SUGGESTING BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RIDGING DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM CENTER MAY SUPPRESS STORMS AGAIN IN THE EAST. GFS SHOWING PW`S REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH...BUT SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SPEEDS COULD STILL LEAD TO LOCAL FLOOD POTENTIAL. FOR THE WEEKEND...REGIME OF MOUNTAIN AND FAR WEST THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE LIKELY TOO MUCH FOR THE EAST. GFS LONG TERM SHOWS UPPER HIGH RE-CENTERING TO OUR WEST...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS. ECMWF MORE INCLINED TO KEEP UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PLAY OUT. && .AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z-14/00Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO FAR NORTH AND WEST LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN250 AND WINDS AOB 12 KTS. HOWEVER VRB15G30KT ISO-SCT -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCS AND DMN THRU 06Z WITH BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. $$ .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. THIS WILL LIMIT MOST WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BUT VENT RATES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE GOOD TO VERY GOOD CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE REGION THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 74 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 68 97 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 68 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 68 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 53 73 53 75 / 10 20 20 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 95 69 97 / 20 10 10 20 SILVER CITY 63 90 64 91 / 30 30 30 30 DEMING 68 98 70 99 / 20 20 20 20 LORDSBURG 67 97 68 98 / 30 30 30 20 WEST EL PASO METRO 74 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 69 99 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 FORT HANCOCK 73 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 LOMA LINDA 69 97 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 FABENS 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 71 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 70 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 10 JORNADA RANGE 67 98 68 100 / 10 0 0 10 HATCH 67 98 68 100 / 10 10 10 20 COLUMBUS 69 98 70 99 / 10 20 20 0 OROGRANDE 71 98 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 10 20 MESCALERO 55 85 55 87 / 10 20 20 20 TIMBERON 56 84 57 87 / 10 10 10 10 WINSTON 59 87 60 89 / 30 30 30 50 HILLSBORO 64 96 65 97 / 20 20 20 30 SPACEPORT 67 96 68 99 / 10 0 0 10 LAKE ROBERTS 58 88 59 89 / 30 40 40 40 HURLEY 64 93 65 94 / 20 40 40 30 CLIFF 62 95 63 94 / 30 40 40 30 MULE CREEK 60 97 62 96 / 40 30 30 30 FAYWOOD 64 94 65 96 / 20 30 30 30 ANIMAS 67 97 68 98 / 30 30 30 20 HACHITA 67 97 67 98 / 20 40 40 20 ANTELOPE WELLS 65 96 67 96 / 30 40 40 30 CLOVERDALE 65 95 66 95 / 30 30 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 17/27 HEFNER/LANEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1003 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS 1000 PM EDT MONDAY... CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SOUTHERN VA PIEDMONT (APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM- HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE). ALL OTHER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. MORE STORMS ARE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY... REMOVING ROANOKE AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AND SW VA FOOTHILL COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414. AS OF 815 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 CANCELLED EARLY AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL START ELIMINATING COUNTIES FROM 414 BY 900 PM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 (10 PM) AND 414 (1 AM) REMAINS IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE LINE FADING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED USING LATEST RADAR TREND AND 1322 HRRR RUN. AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY... ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN THE EAST. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... 500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20 ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY... SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>034. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/RCS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/RCS HYDROLOGY... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
856 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY... REMOVING ROANOKE AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AND SW VA FOOTHILL COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414. AS OF 815 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 CANCELLED EARLY AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL START ELIMINATING COUNTIES FROM 414 BY 900 PM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 (10 PM) AND 414 (1 AM) REMAINS IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE LINE FADING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED USING LATEST RADAR TREND AND 1322 HRRR RUN. AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY... ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN THE EAST. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... 500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20 ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY... SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>034. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/RCS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/RCS HYDROLOGY... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
819 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 815 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 CANCELLED EARLY AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL START ELIMINATING COUNTIES FROM 414 BY 900 PM. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 (10 PM) AND 414 (1 AM) REMAINS IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE LINE FADING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED USING LATEST RADAR TREND AND 1322 HRRR RUN. AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY... ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN THE EAST. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... 500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20 ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY... SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>034. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/RCS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/RCS HYDROLOGY... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 (10 PM) AND 414 (1 AM) REMAINS IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE LINE FADING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED USING LATEST RADAR TREND AND 1322 HRRR RUN. AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY... ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN THE EAST. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... 500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20 ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY... SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>034. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/RCS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS HYDROLOGY... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
143 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT AND THE MESSAGE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS SUCH. HEAT AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING ACROSS IA/MN AT THIS TIME. CLOUD DISSIPATION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM FORECAST. CONVERGENCE EAST OF KABR CONTINUES WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGINNING IN SERN ND. WHILE THE SPC GRAPHIC HAS THE AREA IN A MODERATE/ENHANCED RISK...IT APPEARS THE CONFIDENCE IN A CONVECTIVE TRACK IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE CONVECTION AFTER INITIATION IN WRN MN LATER TODAY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE DAKOTAS/MN TRIPLE POINT LATER TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS FOR INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH NEAR KRWF AND ALSO FURTHER NORTH TOWARD KGFK. AFTER INITIATION...A MAJORITY OF CAMS MOVE THE CONVECTION EAST...FAVORING A MEAN WIND / ADVECTIVE COMPONENT VERSUS PROPAGATION AND CELL GROWTH INTO THE INSTABILITY POOL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CONVECTION IS TIED MORE TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALONG I-94 IN DAKOTAS/MN AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE SPC RISK IS BASED ON PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION INTO THE INSTABILITY WHICH HAS ITS MAX AXIS NEAR I-35 OR THRU CENTRAL MN BY EVENING...EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS POOL CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WI. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF MISS RIVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER WIND SHEAR AND WIND PROFILE OVERALL. THE SPREAD OF CAM SOLUTIONS AND THE LACK OF A LINEAR FEATURE MAY BE DUE TO THE MODEST WIND SHEAR. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE REPORTS FROM THIS EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE SUPPORTING THE SPC CONVECTIVE RISK...WITH AN ADJUSTMENT EAST A BIT MORE INTO WI. SEEMS THE SPC RISK AND A PROPAGATION OF NEW CELLS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL MN IS ON TRACK. BELIEVE IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NWRN FORECAST AREA BY LATER EVENING /AFTER 10 PM/. INITIATION SIGNALS NEAR KRWF ALONG A SOUTHERN CONVERGENCE REGION AND TRUE MT AIR MASS WARM FRONT WOULD PROVIDE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF STORMS. THE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CANNOT BE UNDERPLAYED EVEN WITH MODEST SHEAR. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE FAVORED FOR MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH ANY LINEAR BAND FAVORING SEVERE WINDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE CHANCES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES ACROSS TONIGHT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXPECT TSRA TO MOVE IN TO THE TAF AIRSPACE PROXIMITY LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE VIGOROUS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS INVOF OF TSRA. UNTIL THAT TIME SOME BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD SKIES CLEAR...OR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG BEFORE TSRA MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TSRA AND IF CONDIFENCE GROWS IN TIMING AND ONSET...THIS WILL BE REFINED. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAUMGARDT SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE CHANCES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES ACROSS TONIGHT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A PROBLEMATIC TAF PERIOD. FIRST OFF IS THE LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK AND AREAS OF BR THAT HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK IS IN/UNDER A RATHER STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925MB...WHICH WILL MAKE THE LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTENT AND TOUGH TO GET RID OF. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WARMING ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA...EXTENDED MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS THRU THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF SCT LOWER CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST ON THIS OCCURRING. A COMPLEX OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. REASONABLE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE TSRA COMPLEX ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIER/ STRONGER OF THE TSRA WILL PASS. LEFT BOTH TAF SITES WITH A 4HR PERIOD OF VCTS/CB CENTERED ON 05-06Z FOR NOW. ONCE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS TRACK/TIMING CAN BE ESTABLISHED...TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA COMPLEX SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE CHANCES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES ACROSS TONIGHT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS OF 12.0430Z...IFR STRATUS DECK NOW ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN IL EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...IMPACTING KLSE/KRST BY 12.08Z TO 12.10Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH MIST. SUB 1 SM VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 12.06Z TAFS. MULTIPLE UPDATES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS/MIST/FOG EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP 1000 TO 1200 FT AGL BKN LAYER IN PLACE UNTIL 12.17Z TO 12.18Z. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW ON TIMING... SO WILL BEGIN BY INTRODUCING VCTS/BKN035CB FROM 13.03Z AT KRST TO 13.04Z AT KLSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN BOTH COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN DIFFICULTY FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND +14 TO +16 DEG C AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OWING TO STRONG MIXING. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY QPF...AND THE HRRR OFFERS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110 KT H25 JET STREAK AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. A WEAK FROPA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY ON MON...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. THINK THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 21-00Z. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE H7-H3 LAYER AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BIG TIME DIFFERENCES IN THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE NAM SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER CYS ON MON AFTN...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS 200 J/KG AT MOST. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE FROM EITHER MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANYTHING SEVERE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ON TUE. THE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. MAINTAINED AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS LITTLE CONCERN FOR STRONGER CONVECTION DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THE MODELS SHOW THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUE...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER FOR HIGHS GIVEN THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MODELS TRENDING WARMER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM MID WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH SOME 90S INTO THE PLAINS. 90 DEGREE HIGHS LIKELY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS LATE INTO THE WEEK IN PLACES LIKE CHADRON AND SCOTTS BLUFF. MODELS ALSO TRENDING DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. YESTERDAYS EC AND GFS BOTH WERE SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LAST NIGHTS EC AND GFS BOTH INDICATED SPLITTING ENERGY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE REST OF THE ENERGY MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION AND THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COOL AND WET AND HOT AND DRY RESPECTIVELY. NOT REMOTELY CONFIDENT IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE FEW AND VERY FAR BETWEEN. STRONG ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT LUSK...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MON WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL ARRIVE ON TUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...SML FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 UPR HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT OVR CENTRAL TX TODAY...WITH A PLUME OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR HIGH AND INTO CO. AS A RESULT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AREAS OVR AND NR THE MTNS SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PCPN THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO TUE MORNING. ON TUE THE UPR HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVR ERN TX AS AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WRN STATES. THE PLUME OF MSTR WL CONTINUE STREAMING OVR THE AREA ON TUE...AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM SHOWS DEW POINTS TUE AFTERNOON IN THE MID OR UPR 40S ALONG THE I- 25 CORRIDOR AND IN THE MID TO UPR 50S NR THE KS BORDER. CAPE VALUES LOOK FAIRLY LOW OVR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER NR THE KS BORDER 1000-2000 J/KG IS FORECAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREADS THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TWO STRONG WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO. THE FIRST WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AN MCS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND LIFTING IT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS AN MCS AND TRACKS IT EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING...INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OVER THE PLAINS. HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE MCS TRACKS. ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER STORMS. MODELS PUSH THE ACTIVITY EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS FOCUSING IT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO AMPLIFY AND DRAW THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST. WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL HELP BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING. STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS LIMITED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH SUNDOWN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREADS AND LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN STATUS QUO...WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENING AND THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER TEXAS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE MAIN MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO THE WEST...WITH CONTINUED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LIMITED MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. MOZLEY && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH PARITAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 17Z AND COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 20Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW EVENING. WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAFS FOR COS...PUB AND ALS FOR NOW...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF STORMS DO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 IN SW FLOW A WAVE PASSED LAST NIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED A BIT THROUGH TODAY WITH NO FAVORABLE GRADIENT AREAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NO ORGANIZED FORCING IS SEEN FOR THIS LATE AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT SO CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND POTENTIALLY DRIFT TO NEARBY VALLEYS TO THE NE. HRRR SHOWS A QUICK DIMINISHING OF STORM COVERAGE WITH SUNSET EXCEPT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TO SW SAN JUANS WHERE STORMS MAY PERSIST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT FROM THE SOUTH AND FORCING INCREASES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF THE JET PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RESULTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE UT- CO STATE LINE. THE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...TO THE NE AT 10KTS...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS FAVORING EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO UNDER THE BEST LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING JET FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND MIDNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING A DRIER W-SW FLOW TO EASTERN UTAH. MOST AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN COLORADO. THE TREND IS FOR LESS DRYING THAN PROGGED. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEW WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.5 INCH...SO ISOLATED LATE-DAY STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAIN. THE NEXT MONSOONAL SURGE BEGINS LATE FRIDAY IN THE GFS WITH ITS DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH. THE EC DELAYS THE SURGE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. SO FOR THIS FORECAST WE SHOWED A WETTER TREND FOR THOSE DAYS WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STORM COVERAGE. THE WET PERIOD COULD INTO MONDAY WHEN THE EC BEGINS TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF HURRICANE DOLORES INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE TOP OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE GFS KEEPS DOLORES FURTHER OUT TO SEA PERHAPS PULLING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST UTAH AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 25 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BRING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. THE MOIST MONSOONAL AIRMASS WILL FUEL INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL PASS OVER AIRPORTS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS MAY CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. STORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOE LONG TERM...JOE AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .AVIATION... SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CONVECTION TODAY, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS IN THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/ UPDATE... CONVECTION HAS WANED BUT WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR COASTAL LOCALES. SW FLOW COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWER OR TSTORMS TO MOVE IN ALONG THE GULF COAST...SHOULD NIGHTTIME STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, SOME CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED ACTIVITY GOING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT...BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ATLANTIC COAST AS HRRR IS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ANY RAIN IS BENEFICIAL FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAIN COMES THE TYPICAL LIGHTNING WITH OUR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION...AND THIS LIKELY SPARKED A WILDFIRE JUST NORTH OF 8TH ST AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES COULD BE SPARKED BY LIGHTNING IN THE COMING DAYS WITH THE INCREASED TSTORM ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015/ .THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING INTERIOR-EAST COAST METRO THIS WEEK, PROVIDING FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN SOUTHEAST FL... DISCUSSION... THUNDER RUMBLING OUTSIDE NWS MIAMI IS A SIGN OF CHANGING TIMES WITH FINALLY A WIND FLOW REGIME ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEING THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE HAVING INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FAVORING MAX CONVERGENCE ON THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. IT WILL BE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE REGIME DOMINATING EACH DAY. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY IS THAT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED HIGHER WITH REGARDS TO ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE INCREASE ALREADY OCCURRING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW UP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THE UPWARD MOISTURE TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HR WITH PWATS APPROACHING OUR MEDIAN FOR MID JULY...AROUND 1.8 INCHES. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND IN THE MODELS CONTINUES. THIS WOULD SPELL A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WHICH LIES IN A SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. WPC QPF FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOWS AREAL AVERAGE OF 1-1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND 0.75-1.0 INCH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THINKING IF MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS CONTINUE, THESE NUMBERS COULD GO HIGHER. CERTAINLY ISOLATED DAILY TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...IN SOUTH FL TYPICAL RAINY SEASON STYLE. MUCH NEEDED RAINS INDEED! OF COURSE WITH THE RAINS COMES THE INCREASING LIGHTNING RISK. THREE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA THIS YEAR. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OVER 10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE LIGHTNING RISK ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND OUR PRODUCTS SINCE IT HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY TSTORM-FREE ACROSS THE POPULATED EAST COAST METRO FOR SOME TIME. /GREGORIA MARINE... THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...LEADING TO A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...SO MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SCATTERED TSTORMS MOVE INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 93 75 93 77 / 50 40 50 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 91 77 / 40 50 50 20 MIAMI 91 76 91 77 / 50 40 50 20 NAPLES 90 77 90 78 / 30 30 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI- RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT HAIL. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING... POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BDL && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10 ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20 BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10 CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10 COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50 GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10 MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50 ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10 PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40 VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL... GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES... LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH... PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR... TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER... WILCOX...WILKINSON. && $$ SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
201 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY...PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THOUGH MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 RAPID DESTABILIZATION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS EXPECTED AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY EVENING. 18Z DVN SPECIAL SOUNDING SAMPLED NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM H850 TO H500 AND NEARLY 100 KNOTS OF FLOW ABOVE 300MB. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S BENEATH THIS EML...EXPECT EXTREME INSTABILITY OF 4000 TO 6000 J/KG BY 22Z. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION LATER THIS EVENING. HP SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. DURING THIS 22Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXTREMELY LOW LCLS COUPLED WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED TORNADIC RISK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER 850 FLOW (35 TO 40 KNOTS) FROM THE LATEST HRRR VERIFIES. EACH RUN OF THE HRRR HAS ADVECTED THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER EAST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A GREATER THREAT FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE CURRENT AREA OF FOCUS WHICH IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 IN INDIANA. MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE ROUND OF RAIN THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH A VERY HIGH THETA E AIRMASS AND TRAINING STORMS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN OUR CWA. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 ROBUST NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR NRN MN WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE ERN LAKES ON TUE. RESULTING TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS THE LAKES WILL SHUNT UNSTABLE LL THETA-E RIDGE SWWD UNDER PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE CNTRD ACRS E TX. HWVR RESPITE FM WET PATTN LIKELY FLEETING AS SRN PLAINS RIDGE BLDS BACK NORTH AGAIN W/EWD FOLDING THETA-E RIDGE XPCD DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF AT TIMES CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF AMPLIFYING WRN US TROUGHING. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT REORDERED POPS/WX FRI-SUN TO HIGHLIGHT BTR CHCS ACRS THE NORTH IN PROXIMITY TO IMPLIED UPR JET STREAM ACRS LWR MI AND INVOF OSCILLATING SFC FNTL ZONE. OTRWS VRY WARM TEMPS XPCD TO MANIFEST UNDERNEATH STEADILY NWD BLDG UPR RIDGE AXIS AND NO DOUBT HOT...HUMID 90S LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 CONVECTIVE TRENDS ON MARKED DOWNTREND ERLY THIS AM. VFR MET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD...SAVE FOR BRIEF MVFR BR FORMATION NEAR DAYBREAK AROUND SOGGY KFWA AIRFIELD. ADDITIONAL CAVEAT IS LOW PROB SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY TUE ACRS NERN IN/NWRN OH...THOUGH CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR INZ003-012-013-015-020-022>027-032>034. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...BENTLEY LONG TERM...T AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/ SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON... SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR 15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME. THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400 J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/. EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264- 266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/ SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OD DRIZZLE WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON... SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR 15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME. THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400 J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/. EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264- 266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM... LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE. LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF 7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW- LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND 1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1217 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUPPORTS A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD BUT SOME GUSTY WEST WIND AND IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY AT EACH LOCATION UNTIL THE CLUSTERS EXIT EASTWARD TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATO-CU AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL SCT -SHRAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TONIGHT TO W DURING THE MORNING NW/N DURING AFTN/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SYSTEMS. FOR DTW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE 07Z-11Z PERIOD AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES PIVOT THROUGH REGION. IFR RESTRICTION IS LIKELY WITH LOWER VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN FORECAST WITH SECOND WAVE. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FT TONIGHT/MORNING. LOW TUESDAY EVENING. * MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/MORNING AND LOW DURING AFTERNOON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ441>443. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM....JVC MARINE.......JVC AVIATION.....BT YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS. THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 09Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE THIS. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARYCOLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS (MID MORNING HOURS). BEHIND THAT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT CIGS TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING. THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 URBAN POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECASTED...BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS DOWN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...WDM AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...MJS MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 UPPER AND SFC TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SE TONIGHT AND TUE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND ARE NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO MORE NRN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE IN. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER SRN UPPER MI...DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO AROUND 1000J/KG OF CAPE AROUND AROUND 20KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. USED A BLEND OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION. MARINE FOG WILL BE PUSHED ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING IN UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO BE DONE BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT DID LAG CLOUDS BACK FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLEARING IS OFTEN SLOWER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR 15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME. THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400 J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/. EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264- 266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 UPPER AND SFC TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE SE TONIGHT AND TUE...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND ARE NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO MORE NRN PARTS OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE IN. COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER SRN UPPER MI...DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO AROUND 1000J/KG OF CAPE AROUND AROUND 20KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. USED A BLEND OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THROUGH TUE WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO CONVECTION. MARINE FOG WILL BE PUSHED ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING IN UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST OR ALL PRECIP TO BE DONE BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT DID LAG CLOUDS BACK FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLEARING IS OFTEN SLOWER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE U.P. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN A FEW DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE DEPARTING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO LEAD TO ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA (TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL). WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE VARYING ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL TRY TO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER TIMING...MAINLY IN THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD...WITH THE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON THE SUBTLE FEATURES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT 5 DAYS OUT). OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WARM/HUMID ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE MODELS ARE GIVING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR WAVE EJECTING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND POTENTIALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 EXPECT N WINDS OFF LK SUP TO ADVECT HI RH LLVL AIR/LO CLDS INTO UPR MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNGT AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS...WITH SOME -DZ CONTINUING THRU SUNRISE ON TUE. THE STEADY NNE WIND WL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR ON TUE AS HI PRES BUILDS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BY THE AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE EVNG AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SO...THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MIXING ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264- 266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING HEIGHTS. 50 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER CENTRAL NM...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK BTWN THE CONT DVD AND THE AZ BORDER DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN NM AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY LATE MORNING THEN ADVANCE EAST ALONG A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL ENHANCE -TSRA INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BTWN 22-02Z...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO -SHRA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT BY A TSRA TUESDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO REDUCE VSBY TO BLW 5SM WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GUYER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 88 60 89 58 / 30 30 10 10 DULCE........................... 78 50 80 48 / 50 40 20 20 CUBA............................ 75 52 79 51 / 50 40 40 20 GALLUP.......................... 82 54 84 52 / 40 40 30 20 EL MORRO........................ 77 52 78 51 / 50 40 60 30 GRANTS.......................... 79 54 81 52 / 50 30 40 30 QUEMADO......................... 77 56 79 54 / 50 40 50 30 GLENWOOD........................ 86 56 83 57 / 30 40 40 40 CHAMA........................... 77 47 76 46 / 60 50 40 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 58 80 57 / 60 50 70 30 PECOS........................... 80 55 79 54 / 50 50 50 30 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 74 52 74 50 / 50 50 50 30 RED RIVER....................... 66 45 68 45 / 70 50 70 40 ANGEL FIRE...................... 70 49 70 49 / 70 50 70 40 TAOS............................ 80 51 80 49 / 40 40 30 30 MORA............................ 79 53 75 52 / 50 50 60 30 ESPANOLA........................ 86 56 85 55 / 40 40 30 20 SANTA FE........................ 82 58 81 57 / 40 40 40 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 57 84 57 / 30 30 40 20 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 63 84 63 / 40 40 50 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 64 87 65 / 30 30 40 20 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 88 62 / 30 30 30 20 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 64 88 63 / 30 30 40 20 LOS LUNAS....................... 87 62 87 60 / 20 30 30 20 RIO RANCHO...................... 88 64 87 62 / 30 30 40 20 SOCORRO......................... 91 63 87 61 / 30 30 30 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 57 81 55 / 50 40 60 30 TIJERAS......................... 84 58 84 57 / 40 40 50 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 53 83 52 / 40 30 40 20 CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 57 81 56 / 40 40 40 20 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 58 82 57 / 40 40 40 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 86 62 / 30 30 20 30 RUIDOSO......................... 80 59 78 58 / 40 30 50 30 CAPULIN......................... 82 56 80 57 / 40 30 40 20 RATON........................... 87 56 84 55 / 30 30 40 20 SPRINGER........................ 88 58 85 56 / 20 30 30 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 85 55 82 54 / 50 40 50 20 CLAYTON......................... 95 63 93 64 / 20 20 30 20 ROY............................. 90 60 88 60 / 20 30 30 20 CONCHAS......................... 97 66 96 67 / 10 20 20 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 95 65 93 66 / 10 20 10 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 100 67 98 68 / 10 20 10 20 CLOVIS.......................... 97 65 95 66 / 5 10 10 10 PORTALES........................ 98 67 96 67 / 5 10 10 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 96 66 94 67 / 10 20 10 20 ROSWELL......................... 100 67 97 68 / 5 10 10 20 PICACHO......................... 92 62 90 62 / 30 20 20 30 ELK............................. 85 60 83 59 / 40 30 30 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 NO CHANGES TO SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS MID PORTIONS OF CWA NEAR MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTN AND REALIZE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEST OF DEVILS LAKE...WITH VERY LITTLE NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP ISOLD STORMS IN ACROSS THE NORTH BUT REMOVE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER MAY SEE SOME INCREASE FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SRN CANADA...AND BOTH NAM AND HRRR MIN TEMPS WERE A BIT WARMER THAN PREV FCST SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT EXPECTED DID USE THE NAM12 AS A STARTING POINT AND DROPPED THEM A COUPLE OF DEG TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. OVERALL MID 60S LOWS SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE EVENING CONVECTION. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING NW TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WILL ADDRESS LOCALIZED CONVECTION WITH HIGHER POPS AND KEEP LOW CHANCE ELSE WHERE. ALSO INCREASING POPS A BIT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST OVER ROSEAU AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES. NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER IS STILL HIGH (3 TO 4 UNITS) OVER NORTHEAST ND AND HAVE HAD REPORTS OF WEAK FUNNELS OVER THE LAST HOUR (NEAR WARROAD...A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHEST AFOREMENTIONED VALUES...SO CONTINUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING POTENTIAL FOR WEAK FUNNELS ACROSS THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FA. THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE HOWEVER WITH UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR STORMS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN BLO SEVERE LIMITS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WEAK FUNNELS WITH THESE STORMS AS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROTATION AND WEAK FUNNELS. SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA SO A FEW STORMS COULD PULSE UP CLOSE TO SEVERE LIMITS. WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS HOLD UP. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND HOLDS INTO MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWING WEAK UPSTREAM IMPULSES WHICH MAY RIDE THROUGH RIDGE. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TOMORROW MAY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 A STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL BUT WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF DAILY CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY ZONAL OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS...ALTHOUGH NARROWING IN ON THE BEST TIME FRAME IS DIFFICULT DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS. ALTHOUGH HAVE POPS FOR MOST PERIODS...PLENTY OF DRY HOURS ARE EXPECTED. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND FROM DVL-GFK-BJI SHOULD INCREASE NEAR MORNING HOURS AND LIFT OVER TVF BY NOONTIME...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO THE UPPER MVFR RANGE AT TVF AND BJI. WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING AND GFSMOS...SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAKES THE MOST SENSE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RA OR VCNTY TS AT THESE SITES AS WELL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MESOSCALE UPDATE 800 PM UPDATE... BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO LINE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING POCKETS OF TREE DAMAGE. COULDNT FIND ANY ASOS OR MESONETS IN OUR AREA THAT RECORDED GUSTS PAST 48 MPH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EVEN THESE WINDS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TOPPLE SOME TREES GIVEN HOW WET OUR SOILS ARE. ALLOWED THE SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CLEANED UP THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. EVEN AN INCH OF RAIN CAUSED PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW CREEKS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING. AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH S/W TROF INTERACTING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE NW TO SE LLVL THETA E GRADIENT OVER THE OH VALLEY...GENERALLY JUST W OF OUR CWA. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER OUR AIRMASS IS...WOULD THINK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD SNIFF OUT THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN C KY VS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE TAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT EVEN IT PUTS A HVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ALLOWED HIGHER POPS TO WORK IN TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES. ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES OF LATE. IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEEPING THIS SHORT...MOVING INTO FLOOD OPERATIONS AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANGE IN AIRMASS...READILY SEEN BY THE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED DRIER PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. 500MB HEIGHTS TO CLIMB ABOUT 10DKM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...SO WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. WET GROUND...WHICH WILL STILL BE WET OVERALL LATE WEEK...WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON THE TEMPERATURES EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 20C. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT...500MB FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY... CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-13Z WITH GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN...EXITING PKB AROUND 08Z AND BKW AROUND 13Z. BEHIND THE COMPLEX...GENERAL MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. AFTER 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT CLOUDS BY AROUND 15Z. AFTER 20Z ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH...AND ROLLING SOUTH THRU THE END OF PERIOD. BEHIND THIS COMPLEX GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG OVERNIGHT MAY VARY...AND TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE FASTER TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BE FASTER. AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. && WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018- 024>029-033>038. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018- 024>029-033>038. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JB/MZ AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
225 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LINGERING STORMS ARE FIRING IN A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BEHIND THE LARGE SWATH OF STORMS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR PORTSMOUTH AND WEST OF COLUMBUS AND HAVE A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. MORE STORMS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY THAT EXISTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPSTREAM STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND MAY PERSIST AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS EVENING...THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX WITH HOW THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT BUT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR MODEL. IF THE LINE DEVELOPS...THE OVERNIGHT THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND COULD CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THERE WILL BE A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA. A DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT AND HAVE ADDED SEVERE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AND HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST...HWO...AND HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR 70. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR 100 ACROSS EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ATOP BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS WE/LL ACTUALLY GET A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THOUGH IT WOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE IF A LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OHIO ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOL DAYS OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CLIMBING BY FRIDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...DRAGGING A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON - BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS FORCING IS WEAK. THE WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES WASHING OUT A BIT. TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER THAN WE/VE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SOME PRETTY STEAMY AIR COMES WITH IT - SO IT WILL BE MUGGY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROUGHING TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEEMS ENOUGH THERE WITH THE WARM/MUGGY AIR THAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME ISOLATED STRAGGLERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THESE COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANG ON TO THUNDER A LITTLE LONGER AT KCVG/KLUK AS THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER REDEVELOPMENT BACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCVG/KLUK IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WE SHOULD THEN GET INTO A PCPN LULL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR TOWARD DAYBREAK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN REDEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
206 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY. MORE DISTURBANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... MESOSCALE UPDATE 800 PM UPDATE... BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO LINE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING POCKETS OF TREE DAMAGE. COULDNT FIND ANY ASOS OR MESONETS IN OUR AREA THAT RECORDED GUSTS PAST 48 MPH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EVEN THESE WINDS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TOPPLE SOME TREES GIVEN HOW WET OUR SOILS ARE. ALLOWED THE SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CLEANED UP THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IT CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY. EVEN AN INCH OF RAIN CAUSED PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW CREEKS COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING. AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH S/W TROF INTERACTING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE NW TO SE LLVL THETA E GRADIENT OVER THE OH VALLEY...GENERALLY JUST W OF OUR CWA. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER OUR AIRMASS IS...WOULD THINK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD SNIFF OUT THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN C KY VS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE TAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT EVEN IT PUTS A HVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ALLOWED HIGHER POPS TO WORK IN TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES. ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES OF LATE. IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE EARLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH QPF NEARING 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. COORDINATED WITH NEAR TERM FORECASTER ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DRYER WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY... CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-13Z WITH GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN...EXITING PKB AROUND 08Z AND BKW AROUND 13Z. BEHIND THE COMPLEX...GENERAL MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. AFTER 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT CLOUDS BY AROUND 15Z. AFTER 20Z ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH...AND ROLLING SOUTH THRU THE END OF PERIOD. BEHIND THIS COMPLEX GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG OVERNIGHT MAY VARY...AND TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE FASTER TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BE FASTER. AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-013>018- 024>029-033>038. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/30 SHORT TERM...MZ/26 LONG TERM...JB/MZ AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
136 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... THE EARLIER...NEARLY SOLID LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS /WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/...HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO 2 OR 3 CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION /ONE ENTERING WARREN COUNTY...AND THE SECOND/LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/. BOTH AREAS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT/MID LEVEL VORT MAXES. THESE POCKETS OF ENERGY /ABOVE A SLOWLY NEWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT/ WILL LIKELY DRIFT ENE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS PWATS INCREASE BY ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVERNIGHT /TO BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES/...SCATTERED MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...BEFORE REACHING THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AFTER 08Z TUESDAY. A MUCH MILDER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S REMAIN STEADY...OR SLOWLY CREEP UP LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 60F IN THE COLDEST RURAL VALLEYS UP NORTH...TO ABOUT 66 OR 67F IN THE METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES BRINGS A LOW AND SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL BE SPLITTING THE STATE NW/SE EARLY...WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY /WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT SOME SORT OF SECONDARY LOW WILL TRY TO FORM NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY LATE DAY/. PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD...GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J BY AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH PWATS QUICKLY SURGING UP OVER 1.5"...SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION COULD PRESENT LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .50" TO 1.00" POSSIBLE. DON/T PLAN ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...JUST HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IN OUR DISCUSSIONS AND MENTIONED SOME TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW MID JULY NORMALS IN NW HALF. HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE LWR/MID 80S IN THE SE. MAIN COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS CWA FROM GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT...BUT WEAK LOW ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL SLIDE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH. WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SE WITH LOWS HANGING NEAR 70F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED "DEEP" SFC LOW ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MIGRATE EWD THRU QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST. CENTRAL PA IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR /JULY 11-20/. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WED NGT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE DRY WX DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A VERY LOW RISK (20% OR LESS) OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN ALLEGHENIES. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NRN TIER LKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK TROUGHING LKLY ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE SFC PATTERN LOOKS VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DWINDLING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MARYLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KMDT AND KLNS 10-12Z. SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KBFD WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS RESULTING FROM MOIST SOUTH-SERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS KBFD IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDS. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDS OVR MOST OTHER CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS...MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS TO LIFT BY LATE AM...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THRU THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN. HOWEVER...SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE PM HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN SPOTS. OUTLOOK... WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 130 AM...TEMPS ARE DROPPING A LITTLE BELOW THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE MTNS/FHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT THIS MORNING IN LEFTOVER MCS COLD POOL INDUCED THETA/E AIR. OTHERWISE EXPECT PERSISTENT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO SLOWLY WANE AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A SLOW DIURNAL TEMP DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT UPDATE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS THERE...ELSEWHERE WILL INTRODUCE A LOWERING POP TREND THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS OF 1045 PM...THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE FOR ALL OUR ZONES. OVERNIGHT...CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACRS IL/IN...WHERE A DIGGING TROF IS INTERSECTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THESE STORMS CONGEALING INTO ANOTHER MCS...AND TAKES THAT ACTIVITY SOUTH TO THE TN/NC BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OTHER CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND...EXCEPT GENERALLY KEEP THE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST ACRS CENTRAL KY/TN. THE 00Z NAM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE UPSTREAM AIR HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THIS EVENING/S MCS...I THINK THE HRRR IS NOT THE WAY TO GO...AND EXPECT ONLY A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC OF ANY CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWFA THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SO I HAVE CUT BACK POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. THE FCST FOR TUESDAY LOOKS TO DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SECOND MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SUFFER DUE DO EITHER ITS CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE NC ZONES BEING CONVECTION FREE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT MCS TRACK IS PROGGED BEYOND THE PERIOD AND WILL BE AIDED BY THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE CARRIED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PLACED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST IN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNSTABLE/SHEARED AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OF 215 PM MONDAY...MAIN ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TUE NIGHT WHEN A RATHER RARE JULY COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SWINGING SE FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS RATHER MUTED IN ITS QPF RESPONSE TUE NIGHT AS IT LIMITS CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL SCENARIO WITH DEEP LAYER NW FLOW IN PLACE. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL INDEED BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS JUST SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS SURVIVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WIND SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED. AFTER THE BKN-SCT CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSES...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY WED. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN LINE ON WED...AND SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WED SHOULD BE DRY THANKS TO THE NW FLOW AND RESULTANT LOWER RH`S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES ON THU AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE NE/E. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM PLACING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TRACK BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND AND TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE SE STATES. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GENERALLY CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH A LEE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO GA. THIS SET UP IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH MONDAY AND SUGGESTS A MAINLY DIURNAL MODE TO THE CONVECTION WHICH COMMENCES ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD ADVECT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE AFTERNOON CONVEC...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VSBY ARND DAYBREAK AS TDD/S ARE RUNNING ARND 3 F CURRENTLY AND PREVIOUS LIGHT PRECIP AT THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL REMAIN MID TO HIGH LEVEL WITH SCT CU AND LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON. PROB30 TSTM AFT 21Z STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WIND DIR MAY BE TRICKY WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLY INTRODUCED LATE EVENING AHEAD OF WRN MCS. FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON SYNOPTIC FLOW LIGHT NW/LY BEFORE 19Z...THEN BACKING SW/LY AS LEE TROF DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KGSP COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY ARND DAYBREAK IN FAIRLY LOW TDD/S AND A MOIST SFC LAYER FROM EARLIER PRECIP. GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW LOW TO MODERATE GUSTS MOST SITES ALIGNED SW/LY NON/MTNS AND UPVALLEY AT KAVL. PROB30 ALL SITES BY LATER AFTERNOON AS CONVEC COULD DEVELOP ALONG OF APPROACHING MCS OUTFLOWS AND WITHIN A DEVELOPING BROAD LEE TROF. TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/SBK SHORT TERM...LG LONG TERM...LG AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 .UPDATE...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS TUE AM SO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUE WITH THE FLOW TO TURN ONSHORE OVER ERN WI. THE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WIND SHIFT MAY SET OFF ISOLD SHOWERS OR TSTORMS BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE PCPN CHANCES. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TUE AM WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS AT 3.5-5.0 KFT DEVELOPING BY LATE TUE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN WI LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS TUE NT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. INSTABILITY IS ON THE RISE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER 2500 J/KG AND NO CIN PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP IN THAT AREA AS OF 20Z AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR MODEL AND OTHER MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN AND THEY HAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ALL OF SOUTHERN WI IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 02Z OR 9 PM. THE HIGH CAPE FORECAST OF 3500-4500 J/KG /DEPENDING ON MODEL/ AND HIGH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS SUPPORTS RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS. AFTER THESE STORMS ROLL THROUGH... THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW CAPE AND LIGHT QPF... SO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS THEY COLLIDE WITH THAT WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE EXITS THE DAKOTAS AND PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE UNTIL EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST. 700 MB DEWPOINTS ARE LOW...BUT BEGIN TO RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE 850 MB RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB DEWPOINTS DROP THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. 700 MB DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECEDES TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SLOW TO RISE INITIALLY BUT THEN INCREASES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF TO LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE 00Z ECMWF PUSHES A MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW THE 00Z ECMWF MOVES A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY THEN FINALLY KICKING OUT A SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... AREA OF DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 2000 FEET ARE SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING DEWPOINT TEMPS AND WSW WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST MN NOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEHRING TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
558 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRRR HAS SHOWED GREAT CONTINUITY WITH CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND 21Z. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHOWERS MAY NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH...HOWEVER DID INCLUDE VCTS AS FAR SOUTH AS KLIT/KHOT/KADF...MAINLY AFTER 00Z && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE SHORT TERM. VERY FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST A BIT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. RIDGE EXPANDS ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN SHUTTING OFF. WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND...AREA WILL LIKELY NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE CRITERIA WILL BE MET ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS RIDGE GETS REESTABLISHED. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPS AND WILL SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE NUMBERS PROVIDED. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DID COME SLIGHTLY MORE IN LINE THAN THE 12Z RUNS...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT YET INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 96 77 94 74 / 10 20 20 20 CAMDEN AR 98 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 10 HARRISON AR 93 74 92 73 / 10 20 20 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 97 75 95 74 / 0 0 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 98 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 97 76 95 75 / 0 0 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 95 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 74 93 72 / 10 20 20 20 NEWPORT AR 98 77 94 74 / 10 20 20 20 PINE BLUFF AR 97 75 95 74 / 0 0 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 98 76 95 75 / 10 10 10 10 SEARCY AR 96 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 10 STUTTGART AR 98 77 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER- BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS- DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE- IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION- MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE- PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF- YELL. && $$ AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. KEMX WSR-88D COMP REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTED A CYCLONIC TWIST SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A MCV CENTERED OVER ERN COCHISE COUNTY. MEANWHILE... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT CLOUD TOPS WERE GENERALLY WARMING DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS OVER CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO GRADUALLY TAPER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ERODES AS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN TEXAS... AND A TROUGH AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. HURRICANE DOLORES WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS CENTERED NEAR 17N/108W...OR ABOUT 245 MILES SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AS PER THE 3 AM MDT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE ARIZONA THRU FRI AS THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED VIA THE 14/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE RECENT 2-3 HRRR SOLUTIONS DEPICTED SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION TO OCCUR EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/WRN COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 14/08Z HRRR SUBSEQUENTLY DEPICTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY MID- AFTERNOON TO BE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN COCHISE/CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL TRANSPIRE...WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AND THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT 700-300 MB WIND REGIME...SLOW EWD/NEWD STORM MOTIONS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR TO MONDAY. AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXISTS ACROSS THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...WITH PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON. THIS GENERAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND TIMING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THRU FRI. THEREAFTER...14/00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT RELATIVE TO SOLUTIONS DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES INTO SE ARIZONA STARTING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT-FRI...BUT ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT-SAT. THE GFS DEPICTS PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY SAT MORNING. THUS...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ACTUALLY BE GREATER SAT ACROSS WRN SECTIONS VERSUS ERN LOCALES...AND THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THE GFS/ECMWF HOLD AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES SUN FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD MON. HIGH TEMPS INTO THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPS NEXT MON. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/12Z. EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY AROUND 35-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP... CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN OCCUR NEXT MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON DISCUSSION...FRANCIS AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
822 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 822 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS. LATEST HRRR KEEPS MOST OF OUR AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH NOON. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP. HRRR ALSO SHOWS MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY 5-6 PM. AT THE SURFACE HAVE A STALLED AND WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALOFT HEIGHTS WILL FALL TODAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SO THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. THIS COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. NOT EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NORTHWARD...BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING AT KPSF/KPOU...OTHERWISE FLYING CONDITIONS GENERALLY WILL BE VFR. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TODAY. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY POINT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A N-NW DIRECTION BY LATE TONIGHT AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/SND SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI- RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT HAIL. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING... POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BDL .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. HI- RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS.WENT A LITTLE WIDE WITH THE PROB30 GROUP...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE 01Z TO 04Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10 ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20 BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10 CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10 COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50 GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10 MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50 ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10 PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40 VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL... GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES... LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH... PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR... TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER... WILCOX...WILKINSON. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
859 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS AND A BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER FOR A BIT AS THEY SHIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAIN...AND FELT THAT WARRANTED AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KICK OFF ANOTHER DECENT ROUND THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MAGIC VALLEY. WE DID INCREASE CHANCES THERE FROM THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN ISSUE. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...THE LATTER WHERE THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW BUT NOT NECESSARILY ZERO. KEYES && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ DISCUSSION...CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR WEST KEEPING SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND SHARP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HOLD ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME CELLS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS AND BY WEDNESDAY THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CURTAIL SOME OF THE MOISTURE COMING INLAND. SO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AND A LITTLE DRIER. THAT ALSO MEANS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY AND PROCEEDS TO DEVELOP A NEW TROUGH OVER THIS AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DRIER TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FOCUSES SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES STAY IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY LOW TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE VALLEYS. RS AVIATION...A PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE PAC NW WILL ONCE AGAIN SET OFF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN SOME TSTMS PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTN. HEDGES FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNEDAY...BUT DIMINISHING BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLING ON THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HEDGES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP INVERSION BASED JUST UNDER 1K FT. ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON /JUST NORTH OF THE THUMB/ LED TO A RAPID EXPANSION OF STRATUS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHOWERS ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ACROSS SE MI TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER MORNING INSOLATION SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR HAS LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY. IN LIGHT OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS NOW BLANKETING THE AREA AND WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED /SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB/. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE WILL BE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND LOWER THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE 94 CORRIDOR AS CURRENT TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK DESTABIIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 713 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AT SUNRISE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND PULL A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MVFR CEILING AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM PTK SOUTHWARD WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. CEILING WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR POST FRONT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT UNTIL SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EVENING. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND VEERING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL CONSIST OF DRY AIR FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE...BUT NE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON ALWAYS REQUIRES WE MONITOR FOR MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU. FOR DTW... MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN THE DTW AREA...ENOUGH FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CEILING LESS THAN 5000 FT WILL THEN BE THE ONLY CONCERN UNTIL POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. * MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MID AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. LONG TERM... LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE. LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF 7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW- LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND 1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ441>443. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......SC AVIATION.....BT SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM....JVC MARINE.......JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/ SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON... SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR 15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME. THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400 J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/. EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WITH N WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ADVECTING HIGH RH LOW LEVEL AIR INTO UPPER MI IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...CONDITIONS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS. THE STEADY NNE WIND WILL TAP MUCH DRIER AIR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING TIME OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264- 266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE/AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AXIS OF SHOWERS NEAR LUDINGTON SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH AND RESULT IN MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS. THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 IFR LOOKS LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO KMKG THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MVFR IMPACTS. VFR WEATHER TO RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPERE DRIES OUT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING. THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 URBAN POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECASTED...BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS DOWN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...MJS SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...WDM AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...MJS MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
713 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .AVIATION... LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AT SUNRISE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND PULL A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MVFR CEILING AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM PTK SOUTHWARD WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. CEILING WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR POST FRONT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT UNTIL SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EVENING. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND VEERING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL CONSIST OF DRY AIR FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE...BUT NE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON ALWAYS REQUIRES WE MONITOR FOR MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU. FOR DTW... MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN THE DTW AREA...ENOUGH FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CEILING LESS THAN 5000 FT WILL THEN BE THE ONLY CONCERN UNTIL POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF STRATOCU FORMATION OVERNIGHT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. * MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MID AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. LONG TERM... LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE. LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF 7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW- LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND 1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ441>443. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....BT SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM....JVC MARINE.......JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE POCKETS OF SH/TS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. SH/TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING. GUP AND EVENTUALLY FMN WOULD INITIALLY BE IMPACTED. EVENTUALLY AEG/ABQ AND SAF SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. USING VCSH/VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IMPACTS BUT COULD SEE SOME TEMPOS BEING USED IN THE COMING HRS. LVS/TCC/ROW ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ALTHOUGH USING VCSH TO INDICATE SOME IMPACTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. A WELL PLACED ALTHOUGH SHORT DURATION HEAVIER TS WILL REDUCE CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015... .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING HEIGHTS. 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...WITHERING AND FORMER UPSTREAM DERECHO IN A WEAKENING PHASE...AND ENCROACHING CLOUD COVER MAY OFFSET SEVERE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE AS ITS ARRIVAL INTO OUR ZONES PRECEDES THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. FORWARD SPEED HOWEVER OF ANY CELLS COULD STILL LEND TO STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUN BAKING THE GROUND PRESENTLY ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC WILL HELP GIVE RISE TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPES. OUTFLOWS PRECEDING THE MAIN ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF I-95 THROUGH LATE MORNING. SEVERAL NEAR TERM MODELS IN CONSENSUS BRING A BROKEN LINE OR SQUALL LIKE FEATURE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY 19Z WITH SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO IN BLOOM ABOUT THAT TIME ACROSS OUR COASTAL INTERIOR. TIMING OF THE ORGANIZED FEATURE REACHING THE COAST 22Z- 23Z/6PM-7PM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS UPDATE AND SPC RETAINS AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OF CONCERN ARE CELL MERGERS AS THE ORGANIZED LINE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO REACH 86-91 OVER NC AND 90-96 OVER SC. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FAR INLAND DUE TO ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY... THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT. THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS AND INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY THE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN WAVES. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...DL MARINE...SRP/DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE PATTERN OF AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WELL OFFSHORE BEYOND THE GULF STREAM WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MCS CONTINUES TO WORK SSE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY MOSTLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE 3-KM HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...LIKELY INVOLVED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18Z-20Z NEAR THE COAST. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS. IF A DECENT AMOUNT OF SOLAR HEATING OCCURS...FORECAST SOUNDING PARAMETERS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER AND LI VALUES AS LOW AS -8. MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT INLAND. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STRONG UPR SHRT WV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AREA FROM NW TONIGHT....AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MCS COMING ACROSS MTNS PRODUCING WDSPRD SVR THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING WITH SEVERAL INDICATING MAIN ACTIVITY W AND SW OF ERN NC...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS AT 50%. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILE...ENHANCED SVR THREAT IS WARRANTED FOR INLAND AREAS WITH SLIGHT RISK REST OF AREA. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN MID TO UPR 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...AN ACTIVE DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG VORT CENTER PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING AND SHIFTING OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT 50%. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE HIGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROF SETS UP ONCE AGAIN ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. LINE OF TSTMS IS MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE MCS REMNANTS ARE TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS MTNS. SOME REMNANTS MAY REACH COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCT STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS PSBL TONIGHT AS UPR LVL SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN UNTIL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UPSTREAM LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS PSBL IN STRONG TO SVR STORMS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...SCATTERED STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AND END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS...NORTH 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY...NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND MAINLY EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN INLAND TROUGH AND HIGH OFFSHORE. GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND BY EVENING AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. NWPS INITIALIZED ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH...THUS ADJUSTED FCST TOWARD BLEND WITH WW3. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT OUTER PORTIONS AND SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. BASED ON LATEST WAVE MODEL HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FEET NORTH OF OCRACOKE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE THE HEADLINES FOR THIS WHEN CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JBM/HSA MARINE...CTC/HSA/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LOOKING AT AN ACTIVE SEVERE WX DAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA...MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHATS DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY ARE S/W TROFS/VORTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THESE UPPER S/W TROFS ARE THE PRODUCT OF UPSTREAM MCS/MCC. NEVERTHELESS...THE TIMING OF THEIR EVENTUAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA REMAINS THE PROBLEM CHILD. CURRENTLY...A S/W TROF IS EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER S/W TROF OR IN THIS CASE AN MCS CURRENTLY OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...THE LATEST WRF INDICATES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE THE FA...TO OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS INDICATE FAVORABLE SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC ILLUSTRATES THIS WELL IN OUTLINING AN ENHANCED AREA ACROSS THE ILM CWA. WILL INDICATE SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN ALL PRODUCTS...AND PLACE AN EMPHASIS ON DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WET BULB ZEROS REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR LARGE HAIL. AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX TEMPS. COMPARING THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX ILLUSTRATES THAT AS HIGH AS 10 DEGREES SEPARATE ONE ANOTHER. AGAIN PREFERRED THE COOLER NAM MOS GIVEN WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY...OPAQUE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PCPN. THE HIER MAXES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOW TO MID 90S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR HIGHS. FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH MID 70S THRUOUT...EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY... THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT. THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS AND INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY THE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN WAVES. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
610 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...LOOKING AT AN ACTIVE SEVERE WX DAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHATS DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY ARE S/W TROFS/VORTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THESE UPPER S/W TROFS ARE THE PRODUCT OF UPSTREAM MCS/MCC. NEVERTHELESS...THE TIMING OF THEIR EVENTUAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA REMAINS THE PROBLEM CHILD. CURRENTLY...A S/W TROF IS EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER S/W TROF OR IN THIS CASE AN MCS CURRENTLY OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...THE LATEST WRF INDICATES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE THE FA...TO OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS INDICATE FAVORABLE SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC ILLUSTRATES THIS WELL IN OUTLINING AN ENHANCED AREA ACROSS THE ILM CWA. WILL INDICATE SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN ALL PRODUCTS...AND PLACE AN EMPHASIS ON DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WET BULB ZEROS REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR LARGE HAIL. AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAX TEMPS. COMPARING THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ILLUSTRATES THAT AS HIGH AS 10 DEGREES SEPARATE ONE ANOTHER. AGAIN PREFERRED THE COOLER NAM MOS GIVEN WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY...OPAQUE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PCPN. THE HIER MAXES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOW TO MID 90S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR HIGHS. FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH MID 70S THRUOUT...EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH WILL SETUP CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO TODAY. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN PLACE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. AMPLE CAPE IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY LATE MORNING AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND SUPPORT CONTINUING ALOFT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AS SPC HIGHLIGHTS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND THE AIR-MASS WILL STABILIZE NICELY FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FARTHER INLAND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO MOVE BACK ACROSS TX/NM EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR TSTMS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY... THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME IFR CEILINGS AT LBT. SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN AN HOUR OR TWO. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT. THE HRRR MODEL HAS EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE. WILL WAIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW BY LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL WATERS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND CAROLINAS AND INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS IS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND STRONG RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4.5 TO 5.5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN PRESENT BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY THE CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN WAVES. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME TO AN END WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH LATER THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BOUNCES BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE N-NE WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING SATURDAY. THE RESULTING WINDS BE NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN VEER WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY. STARTING TO GET T-STORM DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE...ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EAST OF A LANGDON TO PARK RAPIDS LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 30%-40% RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE WEST (MAINLY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA)...ANTICIPATE MLCAPE TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30 KNTS). THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KNT JET STREAK. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD TO SCATTERED (GIVEN LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE)...DO THINK THESE FACTORS ARE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS). ONLY MAJOR UPDATE WILL BE TO EXTEND AREA OF THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN THE WX STORY AND HWO (SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THEIR MORNING UPDATE). && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT WV LOOP SHOWS SOME DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC PATTERN IS VERY WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVES AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE...BUT SOME STORMS PULSING UP ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TO KEEP 20-40 POPS GOING...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING TO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ALTHOUGH THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE IN...WITH VARIATIONS ON EXACT TIMING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING MORE MOISTURE...AND CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 2000 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS IN SOME PLACES AND SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A BIG EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HAVE POPS RAMPING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS HAVE THE MAIN RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. TEMPERATURE WISE...CLOUDS AND A TINY BIT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM REACHING 80...BUT THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SOUTH WINDS AND LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS PERIOD...BUT THINK THAT BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MOIST AIR. THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE AS PRECIP LIMITS HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT STILL RATHER HUMID. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A TROF DIGGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...KEEPING MORE OF A SW FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA. VARIOUS IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THRU THE FLOW BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY...AND ALSO KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE TAMPED DOWN A BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SOME SITES HAVE GONE DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORIES WITH VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM. THINK THIS WILL LAST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE ALL SITES ARE MVFR AGAIN. THERE IS A BIT OF 1000 FT CIGS OUT OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...BUT THINK IT WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR TAF SITES. OTHERWISE THE CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
908 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER ....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER 00 UTC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER ....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER 00 UTC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
946 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST BY A DEGREE AND UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. && .DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE HRRR AS WELL AS CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE 14Z. THE HRRR SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THAT CHANCE IS SMALL. AC/MD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.... AVIATION... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF OK/N TX THRU TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS IN NW OK HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM TSRA IN SW KS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING NEAR AND N OF KGAG-KPNC. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY S WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CHANGES IN SPEED AND DIRECTION. CMS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ DISCUSSION... A STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN KANSAS HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING CHANGEABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING IN THAT AREA...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...SO OUR PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT 10 PERCENT THIS MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME THE LACK OF SUPPORT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ITS SMALL MEANDERINGS WILL ALLOW MINOR DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DEW POINT FORECASTS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO USE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE MORE REASONABLE THAN ANY AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SUPPORTS RETAINING OUR HEAT ADVISORY...AND ADDING LOGAN AND LINCOLN COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES LESS HOT...AND PERHAPS A TAD LESS HUMID. ASSUMING THIS HAPPENS...THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT TIME AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED WILL BE THIS WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 101 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 102 71 99 72 / 10 10 10 10 PONCA CITY OK 99 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 DURANT OK 98 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007- 008-012-013-019-020-026. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-011-017- 018-024-025-027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...NONE. && $$ 14/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... A WARM, MUGGY AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOWARD THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MRX`S CWA. ACROSS MIDDLE TN AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A WEAK SFC BASED CAP. BY 18Z 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH NO CIN REMAINING. STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE PLATEAU FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THEN PUSHING SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE 12Z OHX RAOB INDICATED 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL DESPITE A WARM THERMAL PROFILE. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE CONDITIONAL ON INTERACTIONS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT ONCE COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND LINE SEGMENTS BECOME THE MODE OF CHOICE. AS FAR AS THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. REAGAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 93 74 91 71 / 60 60 20 10 CLARKSVILLE 92 73 89 71 / 60 60 20 10 CROSSVILLE 86 70 84 67 / 60 60 20 10 COLUMBIA 94 74 93 71 / 60 60 30 10 LAWRENCEBURG 95 73 93 71 / 60 60 30 10 WAVERLY 93 74 91 71 / 60 60 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TODAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LK MI WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS/FRONTS AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WV IMAGERY SHOWED ONE LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE PLUS A REMAINING MLCAPE AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG ALLOWING FOR SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA TO LINGER FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THESE SLOWLY WANING AND EXITING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. ELSEWHERE... CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AXIS ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW. EARLY MORNING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAINED WARM...IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI. NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 14.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS IN GOOD/TIGHT AGREEMENT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EAST THIS MORNING AND HGTS RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THE RISING HGTS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BUT RIDGING ALOFT STILL BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BY 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE. IN THE SHORT TERM...FORCING SIGNALS ARE WEAK TODAY...WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE AXIS GENERALLY WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES SOUTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND DEEPER NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND IT. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S TODAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG OF SB/MU CAPE. MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH PART OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO ROTATE SOUTH/WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK SFC-850MB TROUGH FRONT AS WELL. WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/ DRYING BEHIND THE SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY WIN OUT AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. DRY/QUIET TONIGHT AS WEAK BUBBLE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND HGTS RISE ALOFT. 925- 850MB TEMPS COOL TODAY...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB. MIXED 925-850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S TODAY. COOLER/DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH LOWS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI LOOKING TO DIP TO AROUND 50. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY THEN TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATER WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES. 14.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE WED...THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WED NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR A LEAST A COUPLE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU/THU NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE SHORTWAVES LATER WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS THEY APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE. SOME SIGNAL FOR SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO ALREADY RETURN TO THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GFS/CAN-GEM APPEAR WAY TO FAST WITH THIS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OVER WESTERN MN/IA AT 00Z THU AND THE MOISTURE/CAPE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXES ALL REMAIN WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT WED DRY. MOISTURE/CAPE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DO ALL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WITH INCREASE LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-700MB TROUGH/FRONT...AND UNDER FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE SHORTWAVES. CONTINUED TREND OF SPREADING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER ROUGHLY THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...THEN 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CONTINUED 40-60 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WOULD PUSH EAST OF THE FCST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THU/THU EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE AND CAPE/DEEPER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT... WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 14.00Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE REGION FRI/SAT. HOWEVER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/NORTHERN ROCKIES THESE DAYS AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST BY FRI NIGHT SAT. BY SAT NIGHT/SUN AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT/MON. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY FRI AND ESPECIALLY BY SUN/MON...WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI-MON PERIOD IS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE. HGTS LOOKING TO RISE FRI...BUT FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH MODELS TRYING TO RIPPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES THRU THE FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO BE IN THE AREA AS WELL. WOULD THINK IN THE WAKE OF THE THU SYSTEM FRI WOULD BE DRY...BUT CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA NOT UNREASONABLE. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT... WITH A NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT. ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. MESO-SCALE DETAILS OF SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL/SFC TROUGHS/FRONTS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME...BUT WILL PLAY ROLES IN LOCATION/TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. SOME OF THE PERIODS FROM FRI THRU MON WILL END UP DRY. T GIVEN THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME. WITH THE HIGHER HGTS AND PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW...WARMER AIR IS PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR DAYS 4-7 LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE TO BECOME A CEILING BY LATE MORNING...BUT THE TRENDS IN THE 14.06Z NAM AND 14.09Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN DRIER SO WILL STICK WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. THUS...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
917 AM MST TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING ON THE FORECAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS HELPING KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. SHOWER FREE ELSEWHERE SO FAR. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE HELP OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSING BY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO HANDLE THINGS WELL SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/18Z. EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY AROUND 35-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP... CLOUD DECKS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN OCCUR NEXT MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN TEXAS... AND A TROUGH AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. HURRICANE DOLORES WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS CENTERED NEAR 17N/108W...OR ABOUT 245 MILES SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AS PER THE 3 AM MDT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE ARIZONA THRU FRI AS THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED VIA THE 14/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE RECENT 2-3 HRRR SOLUTIONS DEPICTED SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION TO OCCUR EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/WRN COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 14/08Z HRRR SUBSEQUENTLY DEPICTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY MID- AFTERNOON TO BE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN COCHISE/CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL TRANSPIRE...WITH THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY AND THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT 700-300 MB WIND REGIME...SLOW EWD/NEWD STORM MOTIONS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR TO MONDAY. AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXISTS ACROSS THE TOHONO O`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
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER TX THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOIST SSW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO. LOWER LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOISTEN TODAY...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...WHILE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS ALONG THE NM AND KS BORDERS EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG. RELATIVE MIN IN THE INSTABILITY FIELD LIES OVER EL PASO/PUEBLO/CROWLEY/OTERO COUNTIES...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...LEADING TO CAPES GENERALLY IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE SO FAR TODAY HAS THUS BEEN HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...AND WITH WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY...APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...AS 0-6KM SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS STRONGEST UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH OVER SERN AZ...STREAM OF WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST PLUME WILL CONTINUE PUSH OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING PAST SUNSET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE KS BORDER. MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING PUSHING INTO KS TOWARD 06Z...WITH HRRR SHOWING A SECONDARY AREA OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST STORMS WILL THEN FADE AWAY BY EARLY WED MORNING...THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MINS RATHER MILD. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DON`T CHANGE VERY MUCH...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MOST HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS...MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING WEAKLY WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION...THOUGH EXPECT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE AS SURFACE LAYER DRIES. MAX TEMPS DRIFT DOWNWARD JUST SLIGHTLY WED AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL...THOUGH READINGS MOST LOCATIONS WILL END UP WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF TUESDAY`S READINGS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREADS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SOMETHING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TRACK IT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH SEVERAL SOLUTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND OTHER OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STRONG STORMS EXIST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER TEXAS AND A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODEST STEERING FLOWS ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP PUSH THIS ACTIVITY OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS RETROGRADE THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST EJECT TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DRYING OUT TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF FLOODING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MAIN ENERGY TRACK TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY POTENTIALLY BEING WET ACROSS THE AREA. MOZLEY && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z- 04Z. CONVECTION THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO KS AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25 BY EARLY WED MORNING. WITH WEAK N-NW WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MCS OUTFLOW LATE TONIGHT COULD PUSH CLOUDS BACK FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. ON WED...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...WITH TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE PLAINS WED...WHICH MAY LEAD TO WEAKER STORMS BUT STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THU AND FRI. WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND BUT ALSO THE RISK OF SCATTERED T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 7 PM UPDATE... THIS EVENING... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. NOTICED THAT THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DRY POCKET IS PUNCHING THROUGH NJ AND PA DEVELOPING A FEW STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT EVOLVES AND IF IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE BULLISH OF THE MESO GUIDANCE KEEPING SHOWERY ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WHILE THE HI-RES ARW/NMM DISSIPATE IT. BECAUSE OF THE SOUPY NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT...KEPT ISO MENTIONING OVERNIGHT. LASTLY BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FOG UPSTREAM. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL IN AT 70+ DEWPOINT AIRMASS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM AND FOCUS MORE ON THE STRATUS POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG...BUT KEPT VSBYS ABOVE 1-2SM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT... BEHIND DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH SOME WEAK BUT BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HUMID AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND WARM CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WEDNESDAY*** WEDNESDAY... IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY MID JULY STANDARDS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS COMBINED WITH FRONTAL SCALE FORCING WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WARM SECTOR REGION WILL LIKELY NOT ENTER OUR AREA. THUS ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH A LOW RISK OF BRIEF LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WARM AND MUGGY MUCH OF THE DAY BUT TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER LATE IN THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH NE WINDS INCREASING. WED NIGHT... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LINGERS DURING THE EVENING WITH A DRYING TREND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY UP TO 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS COURTSEY OF 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH ENTERING SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND MODEST FRONTAL WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND COOLER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY * UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND * WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW... 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE AS MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR PATTERNS. DOMINATE TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST TURNS MORE ZONAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS CANADIAN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE REGION INTO A DOMINATE SOUTHWEST PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK BEFORE THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TO START BUT WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEK. COULD SEE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. DAILIES... THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AS SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SNE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL BE GUSTY TO START DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW. NE WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP COASTAL ZONE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...PERHAPS INTO THE LOW 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. MAY BE QUITE CHILLY IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY MIX DOWN AROUND 50-55F...ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DECOUPLE AND LOWS DROPPING AROUND 55F IN THE NW. A FEW OTHER SITES MAY RADIATE OUT...DEF AN OPEN YOUR WINDOWS TYPE OF NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BE WARMER. HIGHS WILL REACH IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MAY FEEL WARMER THANKS TO FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. A SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AS A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. A FEW SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...JUST A MATTER OF TIMING AND WHERE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN SEVERE WEATHER AS HEIGHTS REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM. HOWEVER PWATS DUE INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THIS IS STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND TEMPS ALOFT WARMING CLOSE TO 16C. MONDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ESP ON TIMING AS THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED VS THE PROGRESSIVE GFS. REGARDLESS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE THING TO NOTICE IS THE INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SO ANTICIPATE A MODERATING TEMP TREND BACK TO AVERAGE OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVG THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING BUT INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO WED/WED NIGHT. AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET AND ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER. VFR TO START THE EVENING BUT SLIPPING TO MVFR IN PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS. WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. MARGINAL VFR/MVFR. WED NIGHT...SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA DURING THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS! KBOS TERMINAL...INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. KBDL TERMINAL...INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THU THROUGH FRIDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACH 20-25 KT ON THU...SEA BREEZES LIKELY WITH WEAKER FLOW ELSEWHERE FRI. SAT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE SCT MVFR IN ISO -SHRA/-TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... *** NEAR GALE FORCE NE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS *** TONIGHT...MODEST SE WINDS CONTINUE AND BECOME SOUTH LATE. 3 TO 5 FT SE SWELLS FROM CLAUDETTE CONTINUE TO ENTER THE WATERS. VSBY LIMITED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...T-STORMS AND FOG. WED...SHOWERS...T-STORMS AND FOG LIMIT VSBY. SHOWERS MORE WIDESPREAD WED THAN TODAY. SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. WED NIGHT...FRONTAL WAVE EXITS INTO GEORGES BANK AND COMBINES WITH 1020 MB HIGH ENTERING QUEBEC FOR NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS 10 PM WED UNTIL ABOUT 10 AM THU. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SCA MAY NEED TO LINGER A TAD LONGER ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRES. SAT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. GOOD BOATING WEATHER TO START. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15KTS ON SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5FT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ANZ232-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-237-250-251-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. A WAVE MIGHT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT SLOWING IT DOWN TO OUR SOUTH. MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 345 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE ENCROACHING ON OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...SOUTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM...HEADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SCATTERED BATCH OF MAINLY SHOWERS WAS WORKING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BY 600 PM IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL COVER MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POSSIBLY EAST AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MIGHT BE IN THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER 600 PM. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPWARD MOTION. IN ADDITION A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...JUST PASSING NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MESO-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY SINCE IT IS REALLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY IN OUR REGION...BUT IT WAS LIMITED... GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY "TALL" THUNDER BUT WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5+ SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 COULD CREEP INTO OUR REGION TOWARD EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED TO THE MID 80S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE HAD TO BUMP UP HIGHS THERE. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ALBANY SOUTHWARD...75-80 FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WERE CREEPING UP THROUGH THE 60S. SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. WHILE SOME PLACES WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL...THOSE THAT DO COULD HAVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS EVENING THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER LULL IN ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE WAS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN NEW YORK EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER (AND WE THINK IT WILL)... IT WOULD REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FWA BY DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGHT LAG A LITTLE BEHIND...KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED INITIALLY...EVEN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE DAY WILL START WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NORTH...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STILL THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY MIDDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS...REACHING IN THE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT MIGHT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND LOTS OF CLOUDS TOMORROW...IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE KICKING IN. WHILE NOT GOING AS LOW AS THE MET GUIDANCE WE ACTUALLY SIDED A LITTLE MORE WITH IT...THAN THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS. THAT MEANS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 70 IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES (DESPITE SEEING SOME CLEARING EARLIER)...MID 70S CAPITAL REGION AND NEAR 80 SOUTH WHERE THE FRONT AGAIN WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO PLUNGE TO THE 40S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON...50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE SOUTH...DEWPOINTS STARTING OUT NEAR 70...WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO THE 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN AROUND 10 MPH...BUT COULD GUST OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK IN EVERYWHERE...CLEARING THE SKY AND MAKING FOR A REFRESHINGLY COOLER NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH A FEW CU FORMING. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE SUNNY WITH RATHER LOW HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS AGAIN LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTH...MID TO UPPER 40S MOST OTHER AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED NEAR TX...AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HAVE FLAT RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN DAY...AND INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORM INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND 70S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE FIRST WEAK SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF MOST OF THE FCST AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR...SFC DEWPTS MAY GET WELL INTO THE 60S. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY MAY SET UP OVER THE FCST AREA IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS. THE LATEST GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG FROM ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD BY 00Z/SUN. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS MAY RISE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE FCST AREA. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. THE WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...AND THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST MAY AMPLIFY A BIT AS WE CLOSE THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE OLD COLD FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH AND EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND AS A WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/CMC/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE INDICATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WAS KEPT IN THE FCST TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TEMPS MAY NUDGE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AS A STICKY AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE FCST AREA. MONDAY MAY FEATURE AIR MASS OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT MAY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND S-CNTRL ONTARIO MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. SOME HEAVY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY 1-2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ON THE GEFS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS AND LOWS STILL LOOK A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z. WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE FOR THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND KALB. WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS COVERED IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR MORE...WHILE SOME AREAS LOCALLY RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH OR MORE. A COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY...TRENDING TOWARD SEASONAL ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH... BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH. WITH PWATS MAXING OUT BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS PERHAPS EVEN SOME URBAN FLOODING. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON SATURDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...SND/HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
229 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS SHOWERS TO NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... 230 PM UPDATE... FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS NOW LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE CT RVR VLY. ELSEWHERE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR AS SEEN ON SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE WITH LOWER K INDICES OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER NYC AREA AND LONG ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES ARW/NMM/RAP AND HRRR ARE SIMULATING THIS VERY WELL. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THINKING IS THAT TOWARD SUNSET AND ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DIMINISH. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WARM AND MUGGY WITH TEMPS IN THE U70S TO L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... ***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY*** TONIGHT... BULK OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCALES...BUT AREAL EXTENT UNCERTAIN. WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WED. HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS BY 12Z AS SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ELEVATED CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...EARLY WED MORNING CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT THE WED AM RUSH HOUR. WEDNESDAY... WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DO AFFECT OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. EITHER WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BRING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STREET FLOODING WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD EVENT...IF ANY ACTIVITY TRAINS OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION ESPECIALLY IN AN URBANIZED LOCATION. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER RIDGES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN USA. ON THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE SCALE...THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION INTO A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERN USA TO RACE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE IN PARTICULAR MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUFFICIENT SIMILARITY TO GO WITH A BLEND OF LONG RANGE GUIDENCE. WOULD EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HEIGHTS THEN BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLE OR SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAILIES... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY EARLY AT NIGHT OVER CT-RI-EASTERN MASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.9 INCHES IN THIS SAME AREA...SO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ALL OF THIS MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLEARING AT ALL LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH IS INITIALLY NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING A NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE CT VALLEY. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE LIGHT FLOW. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THURSDAY FAVOR MAX SFC TEMPS AROUND 80. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS. MIXING TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRAW UPON SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DRAW HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES INTO NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. MOST INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST IN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AND INCHES INTO WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...NOT A WASHOUT BUT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. WE WILL FOLLOW LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY AND WESTERN HILLS. MONDAY... NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND STARTS TO RUN INTO THE BUILDING EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST USA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 2 INCHES. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING BUT INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO WED/WED NIGHT. 230 PM UPDATE... THRU 00Z...SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOCUSED IN THE CT RVR VLY AND THE SOUTH COAST. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET AND ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER. VFR TO START THE EVENING BUT SLIPPING TO MVFR IN PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD MORNING. WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. MARGINAL VFR/MVFR. WED NIGHT...SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA DURING THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS! KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING BUT HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A BOSTON-HARTFORD LINE. ALL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT/04Z. CLEARING SKIES AND VFR AFTER THAT WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALL AREAS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN WESTERN MASS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE PASSING OVER 300 MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA WED MORNING. IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS REDUCING VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 215 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS FAIRLY DEVOID OF SHOWERS... EXCEPT A FEW OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY. THERE WAS A PRETTY GOOD CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY HEADING TOWARD HERKIMER COUNTY... LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THAT COUNTY BEFORE 400 PM. IF THAT BATCH HOLDS TOGETHER AND DOES NOT CHANGE MOVEMENT...IT WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY THROUGH ABOUT 6-7 PM. THERE WAS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF DUTCHESS COUNTY THAT MIGHT IMPACT THAT COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD THROUGH 4-5 PM...ON A SCATTERED BASIS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPWARD MOTION. IN ADDITION THERE WAS A WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR NEW YORK CITY...A WAVE RIDING ALONG FURTHER WEST...AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MESO-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE ACTIVITY SINCE IT IS REALLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY IN OUR REGION...BUT IT WAS LIMITED... GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY "TALL" THUNDER BUT WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5+ SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COULD CREEP INTO OUR REGION TOWARD EVENING. LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURE ALONE. THEY WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS... MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z. WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER TODAY. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND KALB. WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS COVERED IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/SND/HWJIV SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1045 AM...UPDATE MAINLY TO COVER RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ALSO UPDATED CLOUD COVER...POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO INCREASE BUT MOST OF AREA STILL RAIN FREE. LARGEST AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN NOW JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO NEW YORK. THIS MAY REACH WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST ARE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SO THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. THIS COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOT EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING FLAT/ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS TO MATCH AND LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE FAST YET FLAT FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SYSTEMS TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THIS LOOK TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR SAT NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY TIME. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WOULD PROBABLY BE WITHIN THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING...SUCH AS IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH TEMPS RISING ALOFT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 70 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO START AT 18Z. WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER TODAY. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND KALB. WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH UNTIL EXACT THREAT TIMING/EXTENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. AN AREA OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WITH IT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. THIS IS COVERED IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SE DIRECTION AT 10-20 KTS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NORTH. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS WILL BE IN THE RISE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED...SO THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/SND SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... /ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STORING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS EFFECTING THE AREA... ONE ONGOING AS STORMS LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX NOW PUSHING INTO NE GA. THESE STORMS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA JUST FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALL OF THESE STORMS CLOSELY WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED BRIEF FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD MONITOR RADAR AND FORECAST CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. /39 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI- RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT HAIL. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING... POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BDL .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z-05Z WED... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPING AROUND THE AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPO 20-24Z FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION... AND PREVAILING -TSRA 00-03Z WED TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED STORM COMPLEX LATER THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY 05-06Z WED... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15- 20KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. /39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10 ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20 BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10 CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10 COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50 GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10 MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50 ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10 PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40 VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL... GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES... LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH... PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR... TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER... WILCOX...WILKINSON. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STORING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS EFFECTING THE AREA... ONE ONGOING AS STORMS LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX NOW PUSHING INTO NE GA. THESE STORMS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA JUST FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALL OF THESE STORMS CLOSELY WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED BRIEF FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD MONITOR RADAR AND FORECAST CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. /39 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI- RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN`T GO FAR ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT HAIL. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING... POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BDL .AVIATION... /ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ 12Z UPDATE... SCT/ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. HI- RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPS SOUTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS.WENT A LITTLE WIDE WITH THE PROB30 GROUP...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE 01Z TO 04Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 74 95 72 / 50 60 30 10 ATLANTA 93 76 91 74 / 50 60 40 20 BLAIRSVILLE 87 66 85 64 / 60 60 30 10 CARTERSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 50 60 30 10 COLUMBUS 95 76 94 75 / 40 40 40 50 GAINESVILLE 91 73 90 72 / 60 60 30 10 MACON 96 75 94 74 / 40 50 40 50 ROME 94 73 92 71 / 50 60 30 10 PEACHTREE CITY 93 74 91 72 / 40 60 40 40 VIDALIA 95 76 95 75 / 40 50 40 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY... CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL... GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES... LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH... PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR... TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER... WILCOX...WILKINSON. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL QUIET DOWN FOR MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSES THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AIDED BY THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS PIVOTING AWAY AND DIURNAL HEATING. AFTER ABOUT 02Z-03Z EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NORTH FLOW SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MAIN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A SOLID LOW LEVEL JET IS POISED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FORECASTING A LLJ OF ABOUT 40 KNOTS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOTED IN ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...SO EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE CHANCES ARE A BIT TOUGHER TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN THE STORMS WILL BE ROLLING IN AFTER DARK WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE SYSTEM DOES HAVE MULTIPLE FACTORS THAT WOULD FAVOR STRONGER STORMS THOUGH...NAMELY A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LOW LEVEL JET OVER 30 KNOTS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AS IT COMES INTO THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS TEMPORAL WINDOW. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW HOT IT GETS AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. WHILE H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C CERTAINLY SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY... CLOUDS AND CONVECTION COULD HOLD DOWN TEMPS SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE UPPER PATTERN WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH AND THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL MCS ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL SVR WX THREAT. IT APPEARS TO COOL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THE LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP SHOWS THE CLEARING NEAR THE BIG MAC BRIDGE HEADING SOUTHWARD AS OF 22Z. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THE CLEARING WILL REACH I-96 AROUND 06Z AND BE SOUTH OF I-94 BY 09Z. FROM THEN THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 MAINTAINED THE MARINE HEADLINES AS IS...SO BOTH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 800AM ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES ARE RAMPING UP ON THE LAKE...WITH 4 FOOTERS HAVING ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH THE LUDINGTON AND PORT SHELDON BUOYS. THE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE PROGRESSING DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE OVER TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE WIND IS FORECAST TO AFFECT LAKE MICHIGAN AT THAT TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUITE A BIT OVER NIGHT WITH FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS WED/THURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 RIVER LEVELS ARE INCREASING DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY. AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES AND COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL SITES REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUKE SHORT TERM...DUKE LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/ SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON... SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY)...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND A FEW 80S OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL EJECT OUT THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH OTHERS TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE FIRST WAVE (SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION) LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT (NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACK). WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA BUT STILL SHOW CHANCES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF THE U.P. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MUCAPE VALUES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOT SEEING TOO MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND WILL CAP THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND NOSE OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF IT. BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND REMAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. AS MIXING WILL OCCUR UP TO 800MB (TEMPS THERE AROUND 15-18C). THAT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY SUPERIOR. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NW CONUS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ON SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A TRANSITION TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 N WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE ANY REMAINING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SW MANITOBA AND A TROUGH OVER SRN HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WAS SLIDING OFF TO THE SE WITH QVECTOR DIV/ SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM NRN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO INTO THE REGION. SCT -SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WERE SUPPORTED BY THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WAS SPREADING INTO NRN UPPER MI AS UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. TODAY...EXPECT THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OUT. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRLY UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON... SHARP DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AS DEWPOINTS ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE LAKE SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MODELS RH FCST SUGGEST THAT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. NRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH WHILE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. LOOK FOR TEMPS NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MINS INT THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AN A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION /WITH THE APEX THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA/. IT WILL INITIALLY BE A DRY AIRMASS...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.4IN E TO 0.75IN FAR W. IN FACT...THE LOWER PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN WILL LINGER E THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY CENTERS ITSELF FROM SW QUEBEC THROUGH S LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UPPER MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH KS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR INCREASING S WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO NEAR 15KTS AS SHOWERS NEAR THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. ALREADY HAVE SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM A BIT MORE IN THIS DOWNSLOPE/S WIND REGIME. THE FIRST SFC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSISTED BY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TEMPORARILY BREAKING DOWN THE 500MB RIDGE...THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR S /MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 400 J/KG OVER S CENTRAL UPPER MI/. EXPECT INCREASED TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND START OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INLAND W HALF. WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...KEEPING THOSE AREAS MORE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH WINDS AT THIS POINT. THE 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY /AT LEAST OFF THE GFS/. THE 13/12Z ECMWF BRINGS W-NW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS POINT...AS MANY MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 N WINDS WILL DIMINISH WHILE ANY REMAINING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BRINGING INCREASING NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. THE DENSE FOG ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY TODAY UNTIL STRONGER MIXING AND DRYING MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERIN FOG SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
104 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .AVIATION... AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND A SFC LOW NOW OVER THE ERN THUMB HAS LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATO CU. DIURNAL HEATING HAS LIFTED INVERSION HEIGHTS A BIT...WHICH HAS LED TO A FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MVFR TO VFR /WITH SOME IFR IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/. THIS FLUCTUATION IN CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TERMINALS. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME EXPANSION OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN ABRUPT CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR DTW...THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS AND REGION OF THUNDERSTORMS SET UP SOUTH OF TOLEDO TODAY. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IS LOW. THE REGION OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 UPDATE... THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP INVERSION BASED JUST UNDER 1K FT. ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON /JUST NORTH OF THE THUMB/ LED TO A RAPID EXPANSION OF STRATUS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SHOWERS ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE ACROSS SE MI TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER MORNING INSOLATION SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR HAS LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY. IN LIGHT OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS NOW BLANKETING THE AREA AND WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED /SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB/. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE WILL BE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND LOWER THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE 94 CORRIDOR AS CURRENT TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK DESTABIIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON AVERAGE SINCE MIDNIGHT...A GOOD INDICATOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE NEAR EML SHOWN ON THE DTX SOUNDING AVAILABLE TO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE HELPED ERASE THE CAP ALSO SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTION. THE STORMS HAVE SINCE RACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA AT PRESS TIME AND HAVE BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY EXITS INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING AS MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE TRAILS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE DEFORMATION PORTION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON BORDERLINE LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THE RAP IS MOST CONSERVATIVE IN HOLDING SURFACE BASED CAPE WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 82/62 WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF VARIOUS HIGH-RES OUTPUT SUPPORTS LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69...AND CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...THE WIND PROFILE WILL ONLY SUPPORT ORDINARY STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE THE FRONT SLIDES INTO OHIO BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. LONG TERM... LONGWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTING EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL FLATTEN AS ENERGETIC NW FLOW EMERGES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW AROUND THE ONTARIO HIGH WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL MARINE MODIFICATION AS IT STREAMS ACROSS LAKE HURON. THIS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT MIXING DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB REGION, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S. THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WED AFTERNOON IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FURTHER INLAND DUE TO DIMINISHED LAKE INFLUENCE, BUT LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD STILL CAP EVERYONE BELOW 80 DEGREES. OVERALL SHOULD BE AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND UNINHIBITED SUNSHINE. LAKE AUGMENTATION OF RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW STRONGLY ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT A WHILE WEAK GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS OF 7KTS OR LESS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR DECOUPLING UNDER IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. INHERITED FORECAST FOR LOW 50S/UPPER 40S LOOKS ON TRACK. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR THUMB DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST. UPSTREAM, A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO EMERGE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHEAST WITHIN PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW, ANCHORING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITHIN A 50KT LOW- LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS TO 20+C BY FRIDAY MORNING AND PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE BY A FULL INCH IN JUST 6 HOURS (TO AROUND 1.80") THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIGN OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION EASILY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS WORTHY OF A HIGH CHC POP. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODEST INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TSTORM CHANCE UNTIL FORCING EXITS EAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAIN IN EFFECT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET UNDER FRESH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE LATE IN THE DAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT AIR AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ049. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ441>443. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC UPDATE.......SC SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM....JVC MARINE.......JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LATEST UPDATE... HYDRO .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AXIS OF SHOWERS NEAR LUDINGTON SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH AND RESULT IN MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 I DOWNPLAYED THE POPS TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL PASS BY THIS AM. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT THROUGH THE DAY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT AND STAYS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THU. THUS DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ARRIVE THU AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS NOT ALL MODELS SHOW STORMS FOR THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT CERTAIN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE WET DAYS. THERE IS A RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION GOING ON BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT GETS EJECTED FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKAN. THAT WAVE BRINGS WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BUT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE WARMER AIR THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHERE OUR PROBLEM COMES WITH STAYING WARM THIS COMING WEEKEND IS LARGE AND DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAST THAT GETS EAST AND HOW MANY SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST AHEAD OF IT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW WARM IT CAN GET THIS WEEKEND. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES GET TO CLOSE WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION EACH DAY AND THAT WILL LIMIT HOW WARM IT WILL GET. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DO SHOW A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 IFR LOOKS LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO KMKG THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MVFR IMPACTS. VFR WEATHER TO RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPERE DRIES OUT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WILL GO WITH SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS EARLIER STIRRED UP THE LAKE AND CAUSED 3 TO 5 FOOTERS FROM HOLLAND TO BRIDGEMAN OFF OF BERRIEN CO. I SUSPECT THE WAVE WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AM. NORTHERLY DRY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED VALUES 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EVENING. THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES AGAIN AND IT APPEARS THEY MAY BE HIGHER THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SO WILL GO WITH HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING/SWIM DAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 RIVER LEVELS ARE INCREASING DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY. AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES AND COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL SITES REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...MJS SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...WDM AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE FIRST ROUND ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL SOON IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE SECOND CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE CAM`S BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING BUT GENERAL FEELING IS THAT THEY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EAST AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CWA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN STRONG WAA REGIME AIDED BY NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY NOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...BUT WILL BE ELEVATED. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SECOND ABOVE MENTIONED PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON SPEED OF EXITING MORNING TSTMS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK HEATING. STRONG BULK LAYER SHEAR VALUES WOULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS INTITIALLY...WITH A TORNADIC THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WITH PW`S AOA 2.00". MUCH OF THE CWA IS OUTLOOKED IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FEEL THIS IS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING IT THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 MODEST WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF THESE WAVES IN THE LONG TERM...BUT CANNOT REALLY RULE OUT TSTMS IN ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. WILL CARRY A LOW CONFIDENCE SMALL POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK SEASONAL. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENTER LATER PERIODS OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEGINNING ABOUT 11Z AT KOFK...13Z AT KLNK AND 14Z AT KOMA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE ANOTHER FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECAST... FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. KTCC AND KROW WILL LIKELY BE LEFT-OUT AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY STORMS LATER TODAY ARE KGUP...KAEG...KFMN...KABQ AND KSAF...IN THAT ORDER. MVFR IMPACTS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS...BUT SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT KABQ BETWEEN 22-02Z. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015... .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE DELORES. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA...BUT WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BENEFIT FROM IT AS WELL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THE MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ. ANOTHER VORT MAX WITHIN THE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE UP ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN/EVE...AS THE PLUME SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT. IN ADDITION TO THAT...AN MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF WINSLOW AZ SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NM THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...DEVELOPING STORMS BY MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WC/NW NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IF NOT A TAD BIT QUICKER. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CONCERN EXISTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOMETHING ELSE TO NOTE...IS THAT THE HRRR BREAKS OUT CONVECTION AS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...PERHAPS ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THAT THIS AFTN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS OUT THERE. ALSO LIKE OTHER DAYS...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY...TILTING THE PLUME FURTHER ACROSS NE NM. THUS...STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STEERING FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRIER AIR STILL LOOKS TO BE USHERED INTO THE STATE...THEREFORE THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INACTIVE AS WELL...AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM DELORES. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM. THIS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED INTO ARIZONA AND MAY TAKE MORE OF A SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH STAYING EAST OF THE STATE...STILL SOME CHANCES THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NM. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY...AND THE EC IS QUITE EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS IS NOT AS AMBITIOUS. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS AT THIS POINT. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STEERING FLOW SO DURING SOME DAYS WETTING STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST. COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WHILE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME DRYING OBSERVED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOUR CORNERS AREA...THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY FAVORING WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS...INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD BE THE PERIOD OF THE MOST POOR TO FAIR RATINGS THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKENING STEERING FLOWS AND/OR LOWERING MIXING HEIGHTS. 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
639 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 626 PM TUE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL OFF THE COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING CONTINUING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL SHOWS IT INTO WESTERN SECTION OF FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF DIMINISH THIS COMPLEX. WILL LOWER POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT KEEP THEM IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER. TEMPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT FOR TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WITH 30 PCT INLAND AND 20 PCT COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 87 ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TO 91 INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING OFF EARLY THU. THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SFC TROUGHING INLAND AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. HEIGHTS BUILD WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 20-22C...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/90 ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MON/TUE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 631 PM TUESDAY.VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING THIS COMPLEX DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES. HOWEVER DONT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF NO THREAT SO WILL CARRY VCTS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT WEDNESDAY SO ONLY EXPECTING MINIMAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU...WITH WINDS BECOMING NNE. DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE SAT AND SUN. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 638 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND SEAS 4-6FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU...MAINLY 10-20KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER 15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 6FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH N/NE FLOW. GRADIENT RELAXES THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT WITH VEERING WINDS AOB 10KT. SW FLOW 10-15KT RETURNS SUN. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY SO FAR TODAY...WITH A FEW STORMS TO OUR SOUTH NEAR WILMINGTON AND NORTH OF THE OUTER BANKS. THINK MAIN TRIGGER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS INDUCING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OHIO THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY BLOWING UP NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS AND HAVE CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS COMING IN THE LATE EVENING INTO THE POST- MIDNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. SOME THREAT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. MUGGY LOWS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER. TEMPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT FOR TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WITH 30 PCT INLAND AND 20 PCT COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 87 ALONG THE OUTER BANKS TO 91 INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING OFF EARLY THU. THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SFC TROUGHING INLAND AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. HEIGHTS BUILD WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 20-22C...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/90 ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MON/TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND WILL FORECAST VCTS WITH LOWER VSBY FROM ROUGHLY 08Z TO 12Z. SUBSIDENCE AGAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU...WITH WINDS BECOMING NNE. DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE SAT AND SUN. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS INTO THE MID-20S AT DIAMOND BUOY AND OREGON INET. WAVE MODELS SHOWING SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 8 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND SEAS 4-6FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU...MAINLY 10-20KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER 15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 6FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH N/NE FLOW. GRADIENT RELAXES THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT WITH VEERING WINDS AOB 10KT. SW FLOW 10-15KT RETURNS SUN. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE PATTERN OF AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA WHILE MAIN MESOSCALE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF EASTERN NC IS FAIRLY STABLE GIVEN EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND FEEL ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN PERHAPS ADDITIONAL SOLAR HEATING CAN OCCUR. LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO FORM NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...DID LOWER AFTERNOON MAXES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STRONG UPR SHRT WV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AREA FROM NW TONIGHT....AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MCS COMING ACROSS MTNS PRODUCING WDSPRD SVR THREAT. MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING WITH SEVERAL INDICATING MAIN ACTIVITY W AND SW OF ERN NC...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS AT 50%. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILE...ENHANCED SVR THREAT IS WARRANTED FOR INLAND AREAS WITH SLIGHT RISK REST OF AREA. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN MID TO UPR 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...AN ACTIVE DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG VORT CENTER PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING AND SHIFTING OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT 50%. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE HIGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROF SETS UP ONCE AGAIN ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND WILL FORECAST VCTS WITH LOWER VSBY FROM ROUGHLY 08Z TO 12Z. SUBSIDENCE AGAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...SCATTERED STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AND END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS...NORTH 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY...NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND MAINLY EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY PICKING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS. ALREADY GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 21 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT OUTER PORTIONS AND SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. BASED ON LATEST WAVE MODEL HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FEET NORTH OF OCRACOKE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE THE HEADLINES FOR THIS WHEN CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...CTC/HSA MARINE...CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY (~2 KJ/KG) OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT THE TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE ARRIVES...WITH INCREASING SHEAR. WILL PUT A MENTION OF SEVERE IN OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT FROM THIS. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SET UP FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER GOING BY HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE DONE LATELY...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER SINCE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE INCREASING UNTIL LATER WHEN CAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONLY THE MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES JUST DOWNSTREAM INTO MINNESOTA. WITH 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TRANSLATING TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...AND THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WEDNESDAY. A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. THEREAFTER ....QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...YIELDING A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WHILE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY GIVEN PERIOD FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION PAST WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TOWARDS EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER WAVE (SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ARRIVES...AND DID INSERT T+ FOR THIS AREA. INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLD-SCATTERED. THERE REMAINS LESS CERTAINTY TO THE EAST...WHERE THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE GREATER...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...AND SEVERE APPEARS UNLIKELY (ALTHOUGH STILL POSSIBLE). UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY. STARTING TO GET T-STORM DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE...ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EAST OF A LANGDON TO PARK RAPIDS LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 30%-40% RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE WEST (MAINLY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA)...ANTICIPATE MLCAPE TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30 KNTS). THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KNT JET STREAK. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD TO SCATTERED (GIVEN LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE)...DO THINK THESE FACTORS ARE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS). ONLY MAJOR UPDATE WILL BE TO EXTEND AREA OF THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN THE WX STORY AND HWO (SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THEIR MORNING UPDATE). && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT WV LOOP SHOWS SOME DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC PATTERN IS VERY WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVES AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE...BUT SOME STORMS PULSING UP ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TO KEEP 20-40 POPS GOING...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING TO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ALTHOUGH THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE IN...WITH VARIATIONS ON EXACT TIMING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING MORE MOISTURE...AND CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 2000 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS IN SOME PLACES AND SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A BIG EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HAVE POPS RAMPING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS HAVE THE MAIN RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. TEMPERATURE WISE...CLOUDS AND A TINY BIT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM REACHING 80...BUT THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SOUTH WINDS AND LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS PERIOD...BUT THINK THAT BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MOIST AIR. THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE AS PRECIP LIMITS HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT STILL RATHER HUMID. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A TROF DIGGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...KEEPING MORE OF A SW FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA. VARIOUS IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THRU THE FLOW BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY...AND ALSO KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE TAMPED DOWN A BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 SEVERAL CHALLENGES THIS FCST PERIOD. AREA OF MVFR CUMULUS IN NW MN MAY IMPACT TVF/BJI THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO WITH SFC HEATING MAY MIX OUT SOME INTO THE LOW END VFR RANGE. OTHERWISE ISSUE IS TSTM COVERAGE. I PUT VCTS IN ALL TAF SITES MID TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS FEEL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT IT, BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH AT ANY ONE SITE TO GO PREDOMINATE. FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING IF AREAS DO GET RAIN COULD GET SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS BUT AS USUAL THAT TOO THIS FAR OUT IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. WINDS BEMIDJI MORE EASTERLY WITH MORE VARIABLE IN THE RRV WITH A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND AT DVL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE ARE SOME EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THANKS TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH... BUT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ UPDATE... INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST BY A DEGREE AND UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE HRRR AS WELL AS CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE 14Z. THE HRRR SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THAT CHANCE IS SMALL. AC/MD PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.... AVIATION... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF OK/N TX THRU TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS IN NW OK HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM TSRA IN SW KS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING NEAR AND N OF KGAG-KPNC. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY S WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CHANGES IN SPEED AND DIRECTION. CMS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ DISCUSSION... A STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN KANSAS HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING CHANGEABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING IN THAT AREA...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...SO OUR PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT 10 PERCENT THIS MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME THE LACK OF SUPPORT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ITS SMALL MEANDERINGS WILL ALLOW MINOR DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DEW POINT FORECASTS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO USE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE MORE REASONABLE THAN ANY AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SUPPORTS RETAINING OUR HEAT ADVISORY...AND ADDING LOGAN AND LINCOLN COUNTIES TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES LESS HOT...AND PERHAPS A TAD LESS HUMID. ASSUMING THIS HAPPENS...THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT TIME AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED WILL BE THIS WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 101 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 102 71 99 72 / 10 10 10 10 PONCA CITY OK 99 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 DURANT OK 98 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007- 008-012-013-019-020-026. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-010-011- 017-018-024-025-027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...NONE. && $$ 99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
459 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND CLEAN UP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PRODUCTS. && .DISCUSSION... A FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD AND SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AT TIMES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED. THIS REGION WILL BE AN AREA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG. ALSO...A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL SUSTAIN STORM STRUCTURE AND CONTINUED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT AND WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING. JLH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY... ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET AT ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR CONVECTION THAT IS THE RESULT OF WAA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY A DECAYING MCS FURTHER EAST. THE HRRR FORMS A LINE OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES AND CARRIES THEM SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE PRE STORM AIRMASS AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 4500-6500 J/KG. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS TODAY. THE WALNUT RIDGE AWOS STATION HAS ALREADY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1935Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROHIBIT THE TYPE OF TEMPS THAT WE SAW TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE 90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME OPPRESSIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN 22-23C. THAT CORRELATES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. CONFIDENT IN THE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW IF NOT EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND RETROGRADING WEST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY MID WEEK. JPM3 && .AVIATION... VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/JBR MAINLY AFTER 14/20Z WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT JBR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF SHRA/VCTS OUT AFTER 15/01Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS TONIGHT CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD- CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS. MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT. MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS- CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS- MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA. TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL- CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN- HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON- MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY... ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET AT ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR CONVECTION THAT IS THE RESULT OF WAA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY A DECAYING MCS FURTHER EAST. THE HRRR FORMS A LINE OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES AND CARRIES THEM SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE PRE STORM AIRMASS AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 4500-6500 J/KG. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS TODAY. THE WALNUT RIDGE AWOS STATION HAS ALREADY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1935Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROHIBIT THE TYPE OF TEMPS THAT WE SAW TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE 90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME OPPRESSIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN 22-23C. THAT CORRELATES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. CONFIDENT IN THE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW IF NOT EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND RETROGRADING WEST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY MID WEEK. JPM3 && .AVIATION... VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/JBR MAINLY AFTER 14/20Z WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT JBR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF SHRA/VCTS OUT AFTER 15/01Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS TONIGHT CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD- CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS. MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT. MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS- CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS- MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA. TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL- CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN- HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON- MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH COPIOUS REPORTS OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALREADY POURING IN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL BE HARDEST HIT. HRRR SHOWS THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA BY 23Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CELLS RE- DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE MID STATE WELL INTO THE EVENING. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, USHERING IN DRIER (BUT NOT MUCH COOLER) WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK WHERE THEY WERE, WITH HEAT INDICES RETURNING TO THE LOW 100`S, JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 73 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10 CLARKSVILLE 72 89 69 90 / 50 20 10 10 CROSSVILLE 68 84 65 84 / 60 20 10 10 COLUMBIA 73 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10 LAWRENCEBURG 73 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10 WAVERLY 73 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .AVIATION UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FOR BNA AND CSV. PLACED TEMPO GROUP AT THOSE TWO TERMINALS AND LEFT VCTS AT CKV DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY. SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING. DROPPED BNA TO MVFR AND CSV TO LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS. REAGAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ UPDATE... A WARM, MUGGY AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOWARD THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MRX`S CWA. ACROSS MIDDLE TN AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A WEAK SFC BASED CAP. BY 18Z 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH NO CIN REMAINING. STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE PLATEAU FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THEN PUSHING SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE 12Z OHX RAOB INDICATED 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL DESPITE A WARM THERMAL PROFILE. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE CONDITIONAL ON INTERACTIONS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT ONCE COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND LINE SEGMENTS BECOME THE MODE OF CHOICE. AS FAR AS THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. REAGAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 74 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10 CLARKSVILLE 73 89 69 90 / 50 20 10 10 CROSSVILLE 69 84 65 84 / 60 20 10 10 COLUMBIA 74 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10 LAWRENCEBURG 74 93 70 92 / 50 30 10 10 WAVERLY 74 91 70 91 / 50 20 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...AND LESS HUMID AIR...WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL COVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS LOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS HIGHEST IN GREENBRIER COUNTY DOWN TO TAZEWELL COUNTY. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME SINCE STORMS MOTION WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THOUGH RATES MAY BE HIGH. UPPER TROF AXIS FORECAST TO BE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT USING THE TIMING OF THE HRRR AND SPC HRRR. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE UPSLOPE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STAYED CLOSED TO COOLED GUIDANCE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. AS USUAL...AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON THE DAYTIME HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT MAY BE ONE OF THE DRIEST TIME PERIODS WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE. THIS PATTERN IS BEING ATTRIBUTED TO BOTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF SQUELCHING ANY CONVECTION AND TRENDING TEMPERATURES COOLER...AS COMPARED TO READINGS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. OUR SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TWO FORMS ON DIFFERENT DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY..AND LIKELY BE ONLY SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT EAST...AND A WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO HELP INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LIFT THAT PURE DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE. THIS EXTRA LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY REACH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND THUS KEEP THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY... DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WE WILL RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN...ONE NOT TOO UNLIKE WHAT HAS BEEN THE NORM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JULY. THE NORTHERN JET WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN...BRINGING SHORTWAVE AFTER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL HAVE THE AFFECT OF RETROGRADING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BACK TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIME PERIODS WILL HAVE A GREATER COVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO AGAIN HEAD INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE OFFERS A SOLUTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THESE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WARM A LITTLE BIT MORE BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY... TWO VERSIONS OF THE HRRR BRINGS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TIMING OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. LOWER PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT LOCAL AIRPORTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL BE COMING OUT OF OHIO AND KENTUCKY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WILL CLEAR OUT KLYH AND KDAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY... NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA... OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS EXPERIENCING INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/PM EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
203 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS 145 PM EDT TUESDAY... SHOWERS HAVE ERODED AND MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED MUCH OF THE LEFTOVER CIRRUS FROM THE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO ERODED. FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN A RELATE AREA OF MORE STABLE AIR BUT SHOULD NOW BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE AREA PER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER 6PM. AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH BY THEN TO SUPPORT SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO MONDAY...CLOUDS HOLDING READINGS STEADY DURING THE MORNING...THEN A RAPID RISE WITH RETURN OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY... 500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...ESP FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. MAY NEED TO RENEW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PENDING RADAR/MODEL TRENDS LATER TODAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE ADVERTISING LOWER NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY COMPARED LAST FEW DAYS. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY AND ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT A POP-UP DIURNAL SHOWER...BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...AND WILL OMIT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ATTM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20 ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY... TWO VERSIONS OF THE HRRR BRINGS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TIMING OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. LOWER PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT LOCAL AIRPORTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL BE COMING OUT OF OHIO AND KENTUCKY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WILL CLEAR OUT KLYH AND KDAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ORGANIZED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND GROUND FOG FOR THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. OVERALL CONDITIONS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY... NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA... OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS EXPERIENCING INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...AMS/PM EQUIPMENT...