Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/12/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1000 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN MONO COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH MORE
UPSTREAM MOVING EAST. WITH THE CLOUD COVER, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN
MONO COUNTY AND ALSO CUT BACK ON THUNDER CHANCES AS THE LIMITED
HEATING WILL KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. FURTHER NORTH,
MADE NO OTHER CHANGES, BUT CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. IT APPEARS THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY SOUTH OF THIS
LINE AS OF THE WRITING PERMITTING HEATING FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A DECENT CAP ON THE MORNING SOUNDING DUE TO WARMING
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO APPROACH 80 IN WRN NV VALLEYS TO
BREAK THE CAP AND GET DECENT CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OUT FOR NOW, BUT IF THE SIERRA FRONT CLOUDS OVER, OR HEATING
IS NOT SUFFICIENT, STORMS WILL BE WEAK AT BEST. AFTER THE PAST FEW
DAYS, IT WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK. WALLMANN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TODAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND WITH
DECREASING STORM COVERAGE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR
DAYS NOW RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THE AREA OF DIVERGENCE UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER FORCING AND CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE
(CURRENTLY AROUND 0.80" PWAT IN RENO), SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA
AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE WEAK UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SO STORMS
WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY, WITH ANY ACCELERATED MOVEMENT RELIANT
ON UNPREDICTABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ONCE AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN SCARS, DOWNSTREAM OF STEEP
TERRAIN IN DRAINAGE BASINS, AS WELL AS IN URBANIZED POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS. GIVEN THE RECENT ISSUES IN DOUGLAS COUNTY, NEAR SIX-MILE
CANYON (AROUND STOREY-LYON COUNTY LINE) AND IN SPARKS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AREA IS DEEMED TO HAVE THE
LARGEST POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER,
NOTE THAT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
GOING INTO THIS EVENING, THE 3-KM HRRR AND NAM IMPLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE TOWARDS LOVELOCK
AND FALLON. OUTFLOWS YESTERDAY BROUGHT A HABOOB WITH VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 50 YARDS PER A SPOTTER REPORT FROM LOVELOCK. IF A LARGE
OUTFLOW OCCURS AGAIN TODAY, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING
DUST AFFECTING I-80 AND PERHAPS HIGHWAY 50. WHILE THIS IS
CONVECTIVELY DEPENDENT/UNCERTAIN, IT WAS WORTH THROWING BLOWING
DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS A HEADS UP FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
CONUS WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY RESTRICT
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL HANGING
AROUND AT LEAST A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF LASSEN-NORTHERN
WASHOE AND MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER TODAY SO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO WANE ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS GOING
NORTH OF I-80. HOWEVER, RECENT NAM RUNS ARE DRAGGING THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEVADA. I HAVE BEGUN THE
TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH BUT HAVE NOT GONE
FULL BORE ON THE NAM QUITE YET. SNYDER
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NEXT WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS WEEK AS A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNS TO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY BRING WEAK LATE DAY ZEPHYR
BREEZES TO NORTHEAST CA AND FAR WESTERN NV, THEN FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OVERALL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ARE PROBABLE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AS A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, BUT
MID LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITED FORCING SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS 85-90 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS ON MONDAY, THEN RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER-
MID 90S IN WESTERN NV AND 80-85 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MJD
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH ABOUT 30-40%
PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE MAIN TERMINALS. INITIAL CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 18-20Z NEAR THE SIERRA THEN 1-2 HOURS LATER FOR
WESTERN NV. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY,
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT. MOST CELLS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN BY 01Z NEAR THE SIERRA AND 04Z IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN
NV. FOR SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED WITH LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING THE MAIN
TERMINALS.
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR PREVENTED FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK, BUT SOME CLEARING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITH RH NEAR 100% SO
FOG REMAINS LIKELY BETWEEN 12-16Z. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN AT KTRK
LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AM MAINLY BETWEEN 09-16Z. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ003.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
327 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND
WITH DECREASING STORM COVERAGE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND
AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR
DAYS NOW RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THE AREA OF DIVERGENCE UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER FORCING AND CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE
(CURRENTLY AROUND 0.80" PWAT IN RENO), SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA
AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE WEAK UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SO STORMS
WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY, WITH ANY ACCELERATED MOVEMENT RELIANT
ON UNPREDICTABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ONCE AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN SCARS, DOWNSTREAM OF STEEP
TERRAIN IN DRAINAGE BASINS, AS WELL AS IN URBANIZED POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS. GIVEN THE RECENT ISSUES IN DOUGLAS COUNTY, NEAR SIX-MILE
CANYON (AROUND STOREY-LYON COUNTY LINE) AND IN SPARKS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AREA IS DEEMED TO HAVE THE
LARGEST POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER,
NOTE THAT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
GOING INTO THIS EVENING, THE 3-KM HRRR AND NAM IMPLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE TOWARDS LOVELOCK
AND FALLON. OUTFLOWS YESTERDAY BROUGHT A HABOOB WITH VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 50 YARDS PER A SPOTTER REPORT FROM LOVELOCK. IF A LARGE
OUTFLOW OCCURS AGAIN TODAY, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING
DUST AFFECTING I-80 AND PERHAPS HIGHWAY 50. WHILE THIS IS
CONVECTIVELY DEPENDENT/UNCERTAIN, IT WAS WORTH THROWING BLOWING
DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS A HEADS UP FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
CONUS WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY RESTRICT
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL HANGING
AROUND AT LEAST A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF LASSEN-NORTHERN
WASHOE AND MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER TODAY SO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO WANE ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS GOING
NORTH OF I-80. HOWEVER, RECENT NAM RUNS ARE DRAGGING THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEVADA. I HAVE BEGUN THE
TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH BUT HAVE NOT GONE
FULL BORE ON THE NAM QUITE YET. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NEXT WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS WEEK AS A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNS TO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY BRING WEAK LATE DAY ZEPHYR
BREEZES TO NORTHEAST CA AND FAR WESTERN NV, THEN FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OVERALL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ARE PROBABLE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AS A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, BUT
MID LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITED FORCING SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS 85-90 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS ON MONDAY, THEN RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER-
MID 90S IN WESTERN NV AND 80-85 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH ABOUT 30-40%
PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE MAIN TERMINALS. INITIAL CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 18-20Z NEAR THE SIERRA THEN 1-2 HOURS LATER FOR
WESTERN NV. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY,
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT. MOST CELLS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN BY 01Z NEAR THE SIERRA AND 04Z IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN
NV. FOR SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED WITH LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING THE MAIN
TERMINALS.
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR PREVENTED FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK, BUT SOME CLEARING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITH RH NEAR 100% SO
FOG REMAINS LIKELY BETWEEN 12-16Z. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN AT KTRK
LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AM MAINLY BETWEEN 09-16Z. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
NVZ003.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND SO FAR ONLY A
FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR THE SRN SANGRES AND THE SWRN CO MTNS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ONLY SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN ENDING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE NAM IS QUITE
SIMILAR. LATE TONIGHT THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A LEE TROF OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS...AND EARLY SAT MORNING THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR OR NR KIOWA COUNTY...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WL
GO WITH A DRY SOLUTION FOR NOW.
ON SAT AN UPR HIGH CENTER WL MOVE WESTWARD INTO ERN TX...WITH AN UPR
TROF BEING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WL BE LIMITED MSTR OVR THE
FORECAST AREA ON SAT AND AS A RESULT...JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT
SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANY STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STORMS REMAINING MAINLY HIGH BASED
PRODUCING MORE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THAN RAINFALL. WARM TEMPS
ALOFT (14C TO 18C AT H7)...LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER AND
WETTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
SENDING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER MAY AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS DRIER AIR WITHIN DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. SOME
ISOLD TSTMS WL BE OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KALS...AND LESS OF A CHANCE
A KPUB. ON SAT...PCPN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE HYR
TRRN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
215 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
MODEST AND RATHER DEEP QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY THE
MAIN FACTOR LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS AND STABILITY ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
MINIMAL ACTIVITY. INDEED GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
BOULDER IS PRESENTLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH LESS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT
ELIMINATED THEM COMPLETELY. WHATEVER DOES MANAGE TO GET GOING
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HRRR RUNS GRADUALLY BACKING AWAY
FROM ANY ACTIVITY WHATSOEVER. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER
STILL WITH EVEN LESS CONVECTION THAT TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
NORTH TEXAS WITH THE MID LEVELS OVER COLORADO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...
WITH MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
THE COMBINATION OF LESS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WL ALLOW FOR ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE LOWER
90S. FOR MONDAY...THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT TO THE SOUTH A BIT. THE GFS
DOES APPEAR TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MORE CLOUDS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS
MONDAY AFTN AND EVNG. ON TUESDAY...A BROAD FLAT RIDGE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WITH A PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
COLORADO. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PREVALENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SO ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG. THE OVERALL PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MDL RUN SHOW A DRIER
FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN CO. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SATURDAY DOES NOT PROMISE MUCH MORE IN
THAT DEPARTMENT. WINDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND NOT TERRIBLY ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE DURING THE
EVENING. DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN AT THIS UPDATE TIME IS THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL FACTORS TO
CONSIDER. FIRST...RATHER DECENT QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WILL NOT DO ANY FAVORS FOR CONVECTION ON THE LARGE
SCALE. SECOND...GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT BOULDER
HAVE FALLEN NEARLY A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. 12Z
RAOB HAD A PRETTY DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LATEST ACARS DATA
SUGGESTS SOME MID-LEVEL STABILITY REMAINS AT 15Z. THIRD...DEW
POINTS ON THE PLAINS REMAIN RESPECTABLE ALONG WITH THE CAPE VALUES
BUT EVEN BY AFTERNOON THE MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO
OVERCOME. HRRR IS PERSISTENT IN SHOWING LITTLE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ISOLATED STUFF ON THE PLAINS AFTER
AROUND 20Z. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE EARLIER
FORECASTS OTHERWISE NO MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROLL SLOWLY
ENE THIS MORNING ACROSS LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...BUT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DECREASING. THERE IS A NICE CURL IN
THE RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RECENTLY WE ARE SEEING
SHOWERS EXTENDING WEST FROM THE LOW TO SOUTHWEST WELD COUNTY.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND
THIS CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE STATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL HAVE
A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY APPROACH
THE NORMAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN
EASTERN COLORADO REACHING THE MID 80S.
WE WILL SEE THE NEXT BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY AROUND MIDDAY...WITH SOME RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE
STORMS WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE PLAINS UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL BE
FAVORED...THE SOUTH PLATTE VALLEY NORTH OF DENVER WILL HAVE FEWER
STORMS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER. CAPES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE 1000 TO 1200 RANGE.
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL START TO DECREASE. NAM SUGGESTS A DRYLINE IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR LOGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...AND HAS
CAPES OF 2500 EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
THAT AREA...SO ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING OUT THERE...LINGERING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAISED THE
POPS A BIT IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD IN FAR NORTHEAST FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. BY SUNRISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TO OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CANADA BY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT
MIGRATES WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE SUBTLE SHIFT FROM
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO PROMISES TO TRANSPORT DRIER AND WARMER AIR UP FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
INCREMENTAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME
READINGS POSSIBLY 3-4 DEGS F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WARMUP ON
THE PLAINS BOTH DAYS WILL BE AIDED BY BREEZES DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. EVEN WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG SOLAR
HEATING WILL GENERATE STEEP SFC-TO-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WITH FALLING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS HIGH
BASE CONVECTION.
BY LATE SUNDAY...COULD SEE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN OVER NEW MEXICO AND INTO COLORADO ON SOUTHERLY WINDS
ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AROUND HERE...COULD SEE
HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE NAM...GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS. ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE...AT
LEAST NOT UNTIL MONDAY. ANY ADDITION MOISTURE COULD INCREASE T-
STORM CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE ON SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH
GAINING SOME STRENGTH AS THE 500 MB DROPS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS
OPENS TO THE DOOR TO A LONG FETCH OF VERY MOISTURE AIR ORIGINATING
OVER THE ABNORMALLY WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC.
MODELS SHOW A STEADY RISE IN MEAN LAYER PW VALUES AND BNDRY LAYER
THETA-E VALUES ACRS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
A SOMEWHAT DRIER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES EAST ALONG THE U.S./
CANADIAN BORDER. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN
T-STORM CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TUESDAY POSSIBLY
THE WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
STILL FORECAST TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. SUSPECT
GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAYBE BE A SHADE TOO WARM WITH THE ANTICIPATED
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...THURSDAY APPEARS TO DRY OUT WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO GO MORE THAN
VCTS IN THE NEW TAFS. CURRENT THINKING ON THE WINDS IS A SOMEWHAT
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY AND GULF OF MEXICO LIE UNDER AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. OUR
FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE PROVIDING A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW
BROUGHT A SETUP THAT RESULTED IN AN UNUSUAL MOTION FOR OUR DIURNAL
STORMS TODAY...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA. THIS DEEP
LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WAS SAMPLED WELL ON THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE. THE ACTIVITY TODAY WAS MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WERE IT WAS EXPECTED DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILE ADVECTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...STORMS WERE
VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE UNDER QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
RATHER HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WAS SOMEWHAT HOSTILE TOWARD THE
CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS
WITHIN THE STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP. SAW A COUPLE OF THESE AROUND
THE TAMPA BAY AREA TODAY...INCLUDING A LARGE MICROBURST/DOWNBURST
THAT EXPANDED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORES OF TAMPA BAY.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR MOST...THE STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED QUITE
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND NOT SEEING MUCH ACTIVITY LEFT ON RADAR AS
OF 915PM EDT.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS QUIET.
STILL HAVE A FEW BOUNDARIES SEEN ON RADAR MOVING ABOUT THE
AREA...SO A BRIEF AND ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF US HAVE SEEN OUR
CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT COME AND GO.
FOR SUNDAY...WHILE THE DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE MEMBERS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE SEEN OVER THE NATURE
COAST TODAY...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND
BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AGAIN...THE
PATTERN FOR STORMS SHOULD START OVER THE NATURE COAST/INTERIOR
NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE SEA-BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL HAPPEN
FIRST...AND THEN MIGRATE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. AFTER THE FIRST OR
SECOND GENERATION OF STORMS...THE EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL WILL
SAY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE AFTER 2-3PM...AND BASED ON SOME OF THE
LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE RUNS...THE RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BUMPED
UP A BIT FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST CYCLE.
AWAY FROM THE STORMS...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CAN RESIST A STORM THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THESE TEMPS...HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 WILL BE COMMON. NORMALLY
MORE HUMID LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOME OF THE BAYS
MAY SEE BRIEF HIGHER VALUES...BUT THESE WILL BE OF AN ISOLATED
NATURE AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AREAL FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
FINAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FADING QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY AND EXPAND AND CONSOLIDATE INLAND WITH
TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED A BROAD VCTS AT
ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18-19Z.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A PREDOMINATE FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 94 79 91 / 30 30 20 40
FMY 76 95 76 92 / 20 30 30 30
GIF 76 96 76 94 / 50 40 30 50
SRQ 77 92 77 91 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 74 95 74 92 / 50 30 30 40
SPG 80 93 79 91 / 30 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1046 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EAST
COAST. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ALLOWING NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THROUGH 04Z DUE TO UPPER ENERGY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HRRR WHICH HAS HANDLED THE ACTIVITY
FAIRLY WELL TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH
STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN ON SATURDAY. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWS LFC
LEVELS RISING TO 8 KFT OR HIGHER AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S. BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM
RIDGING AMPLIFIES ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS
RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT
VALUES RISING TO AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. SOME DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ARE
CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAINLY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING WAS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN STRONG WIND AND HAIL. BELIEVE
SOME MIXING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE FOG THREAT. MOST
OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
920 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...STALLING YET AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID-EVENING...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PEE DEE AND GRAND
STRAND...WHILE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST-SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE SLOW MOVING SEA
BREEZE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AS OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS TO THE NORTH DROP INTO THE AREA AND
INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS
INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE THIS EVENING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA....WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FARTHER
SOUTH. LATEST RAP CAPE VALUES ARE 2500-3500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE
MODERATELY STRONG CAPE/INSTABILITY...PRESENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND INLAND TROUGH...EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS EVENING. OUR ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING FROM
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1200-1400
J/KG. SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FEATURE DRAGS A WEAK UPPER VORT LOBE THROUGH
THE AREA...DEPARTING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY HELP TO
KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION AROUND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. THEN...EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO THE
ATLANTIC. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH
LATE...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM SW TO NNE
TOWARD MORNING. THIS FRONT LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL
AREA. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY PROGRESSION INLAND. TEMPS WOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES...WHILE MID 90S WILL PREVAIL
INLAND. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE DISSIPATING FRONT TO ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND
WHERE THE CONVERGENCE MEETS WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER
DAY...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEPING THE CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.
MONDAY...A SOMEWHAT MORE PROMINENT INLAND TROF WILL SET UP ON MONDAY
AS UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE MORE INLAND CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS WILL START WARMING A BIT AGAIN WITH A FEW UPPER
90S POSSIBLE WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN GEORGIA. THE BEST ENERGY
FROM THE DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
STILL BE TRAILING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...SO I DONT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER BULK SHEAR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A JET MAX MOVES INTO THE DEEPENING MEAN
TROF OVER THE EAST. NOT ONLY WILL THE SHEAR BE MORE SUPPORTIVE...BUT
MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG WARMING OF THE LOW LAYERS. BOTH NAM AND
GFS SHOW 925 TEMPS INLAND > 30C BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MIX
DOWN TO NEAR 100 IF CORRECT. THIS WOULD ALLOW MLCAPES TO REACH NEAR
3000...REPRESENTING VERY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. I DID RAISE THE
POPS A LITTLE ON TUESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS STILL QUESTIONABLE THIS
FAR OUT. IF THE JET MAX ARRIVES LATE...THE MAXIMUM DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY MAY NOT ARRIVE IN SYNC...LOWERING THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MID WEEK WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. A WEAKER SFC LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS...BRINGING AT LEAST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS IT
REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS MID TO LATE WEEK.
GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA...THEN OFFSHORE. A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED
LATE WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT...WITH A FLATTENED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WARMEST OVER INLAND AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KCHS...AND WILL NEED TO MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST IF
RADAR TRENDS DICTATE THE NEED. TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IF ANY CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO AFFECT EITHER
TERMINAL...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY/FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. THE BERMUDA ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR SC WATERS LATER TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR THE NORTHERN
GA WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SC...FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF/SC WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
TAME ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEARBY...CREATING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST WHEN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. WINDS WILL PICK
UP SOME ON MONDAY AS THE INLAND TROF BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AND THE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND. WINDS ANS
SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS PRESSURES
DROP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. I HAVE BROUGHT WINDS SPEEDS UP TO
20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 5 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THOSE
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE SCAS FROM LATER SHIFTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR JULY 11TH...
KCHS...102 SET IN 1986.
KCXM...100 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...103 SET IN 1980.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FWA
NEAR TERM...JAQ/RFM
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RFM/FWA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
813 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EAST
COAST. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ALLOWING NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THROUGH 04Z DUE TO UPPER ENERGY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HRRR WHICH HAS HANDLED THE ACTIVITY
FAIRLY WELL TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH
STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN ON SATURDAY. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWS LFC
LEVELS RISING TO 8 KFT OR HIGHER AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S. BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM
RIDGING AMPLIFIES ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS
RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT
VALUES RISING TO AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. SOME DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ARE
CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WAS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BELIEVE
SOME MIXING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE FOG THREAT. MOST
OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG
MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND TODAY WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AS SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE. AN INLAND
TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 500 MB RIDGE IS PARKED ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA JUST A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WARM AIR DESCENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR ALL REGIONS INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING MEASURED AN 850 MB
TEMPERATURE OF +19C...PRECISELY WHAT BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM
MODELS FORECAST. THIS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO OUR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY.
DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON (MIXED-LAYER CAPE EASILY 2500 J/KG) PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT DUE TO THE RIDGE WILL LESSEN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND RAP SHOW VERY
MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN THE LCL AND LFC...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WHICH USUALLY MEANS CUMULUS
CLOUDS MAY ENTRAIN TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO GROW TALLER. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE WRF-NMM CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...
AND INDEED IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG
THE ONLY AVAILABLE SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. I HAVE REMOVED
THE SMALL POP IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA AS IT APPEARS DRY AIR
WILL WIN THE BATTLE HERE. HOWEVER THE 20 POP FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA...WITH NO
ESPECIALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND PLENTY OF
SINKING MOTION WITHIN THE VERTICAL...LINGERING CONVECTION FAR INLAND
THIS EVENING WILL COME TO AN END BY 9 OR 10 PM WITH NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TO DEVELOP. WINDS WON/T ENTIRELY DECOUPLE FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION AND GIVEN THE WARMTH OF TODAY WILL LIMIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LIKELY
ENHANCING THE SFC THROUGH INLAND AND PRODUCING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
INTO AN MCS THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BEST CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP HAS NOW BEEN ADDED. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A WEAKENED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES
TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES
ROUND THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY FLOW COULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER TO START OFF THE WEEK...IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A MID LVL TROUGH STRENGTHENS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ABSORBING A TUTT LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND WHILE THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS DEEPER MOISTURE TO
THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THE INLAND TROUGH INCHES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST BY
THE WEEKEND...LIMITING OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WARMEST OVER INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA...WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM AND THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN
GOING FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINAL MVFR FOG TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN INCREASED
WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 30
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...PROVIDING A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE SC/GA COASTAL WATERS. THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BACK WIND DIRECTIONS MORE
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE NORTH INCLUDING
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS CHARLESTON HARBOR
DUE TO INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE RIDGE. THE LATEST WAVE
OBSERVATION FROM THE EDISTO BUOY IS 3.5 FOOT SEAS PRIMARILY AT A 5
SECOND PERIOD...SUPPORTIVE OF 2-3 FOOT SEAS INSIDE THE 0-20 MILE
COASTAL WATERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS MORNING UPDATE.
TONIGHT...THE INLAND TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. SOUTH/SW WINDS
WILL FEEL SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING EFFECTS...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES OVER
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15
KTS NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20 KTS NEAR SEABREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL SURGES...ESPECIALLY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE COULD SEE A
FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES EACH NIGHT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT THIS WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD TO 2-4 FT. WE COULD SEE 5 FT SEAS IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH BY NORTHWEST OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST OF JEROME. THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL NEED TO RELY ON OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SURFACE HEATING...WHICH
WILL BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER BUFFER
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING NORTHWEST WITH THE STEERING FLOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REACHING THE TREASURE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEDNESDAY...STORM
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS MUCH...BUT WITH
PW STILL CLOSE TO AN INCH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER
THIS MORNING IS STILL FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...LEAVING INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND NOT AS MUCH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT... BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
KTS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...SOUTHERLY 10-20 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER WEISER BASIN TOWARDS BAKER COUNTY
THROUGH 5 AM PDT AS WELL AS ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR SW WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS SW IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE AN ARC OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
FROM BURNS TO STANLEY NORTHWARD...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWAT
REMAINS HIGH AND DDFT CAPE TOO SO GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY OVER SW IDAHO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER HARNEY BAKER AND ADAMS COUNTIES. THEN SATURDAY THERE
IS A TRANSITION TO MORE SHEAR AND WIND ALOFT THOUGH PWAT AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN HIGH SO STORMS WILL BE FASTER MOVERS BUT STILL
HAVE GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVES MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE MONDAY
MORNING. BOTH WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS WITH DEVELOPMENT FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DYNAMICS
IS BETTER ON THE MONDAY /AOA 30 KTS 0-6KM SHEAR/ BUT INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW STRONG THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MUCH STRONGER AND
SLOWER THAN 00Z GFS. BOTH ARE SHOWING A TROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH TO
NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
930 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS
BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OF THE REGION, WHERE THE WARM FRONT
HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR AT LEAST
A LITTLE LONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, ALTHOUGH A
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE NOTED AS INSTABILITY WANES AND AS A SHORT
WAVE THAT HELPED TO DRIVE THE STORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY
02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH
THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE
ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD
TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE
RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH
TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED
INTO THU ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF KBMI AND KPIA AND WERE DRIFTING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF
TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THEIR AFFECT TO CIGS AND
VSBYS. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE KBMI AND KPIA OVERNIGHT...AM LEANING TOWARDS MORE OF AN MVFR
CIG FOR KBMI WITH LOW VFR (SCT-BKN CIGS) FOR OUR SOUTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES BY 13-15Z SUNDAY AS A RESULT...THE BETTER THREAT FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH SO OTHER THAN VCTS WILL NOT ADD
ANY ADDL TEMPO GROUPS. WITH THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH... WILL BRING
MAINLY VFR CIGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 9 KTS
EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE INTO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY
02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH
THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE
ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD
TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE
RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH
TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSST THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF KBMI AND KPIA AND WERE DRIFTING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF
TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THEIR AFFECT TO CIGS AND
VSBYS. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE KBMI AND KPIA OVERNIGHT...AM LEANING TOWARDS MORE OF AN MVFR
CIG FOR KBMI WITH LOW VFR (SCT-BKN CIGS) FOR OUR SOUTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES BY 13-15Z SUNDAY AS A RESULT...THE BETTER THREAT FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH SO OTHER THAN VCTS WILL NOT ADD
ANY ADDL TEMPO GROUPS. WITH THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH... WILL BRING
MAINLY VFR CIGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 9 KTS
EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE INTO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
ARLATX REGION. MEANWHILE THERE WERE SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE WEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE WAVES MOVING ON SHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK VORT
MAX OVER THE TX PANHANDLE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE,
A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR PHILLIPSBURG KS TO NORTH OF
HEBRON AND INTO NORTHERN MO.
FOR THIS EVENING, THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. THERE CERTAINLY IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FOR STORMS TO FORM, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS COULD
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE UPDRAFTS. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
SOLUTION SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE ALONE MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING. THERE REMAINS SOME WILDCARDS THOUGH. THE
HRRR ALSO WANTS TO DEVELOP AN MCS AND BRING IT INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL
KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH STORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PLAUSIBLE. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW SOME
LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES, HOWEVER THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF SATURATED AIR BEING LIFTED. SO I DON`T HAVE A GOOD
FEELING FOR WHETHER STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND I THINK THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONE
TO CAUSE SOME ELEVATED STORMS. IN THE END HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON OR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
WARM AIR NORTH.
FOR SUNDAY, MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WHILE 700
MB TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE DAY. SO UNLESS SOMETHING UNEXPECTED
HAPPENS, LIKE AN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KS IN THE MORNING, THINK
THE STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOW
LIMITED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KS WHILE NORTH
CENTRAL KS COULD MIX TO NEAR 800MB. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS SOME DRY
AIR MOVING IN AT 850 WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 15C. SO ACROSS
EASTERN KS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BUT
WITH LESS MIXING SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD APPROACH 100 WITH DEEPER MIXING, BUT
SHOULD MIX SOME OF THE DRYER AIR TO THE SURFACE. IN THE END, HEAT
INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 105 SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM GETTING TOO FAR ABOVE 100, BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING. HEAT INDICES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL INTO ADVISORY AND PERHAPS
WARNING LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS IS USUAL AT
THIS RANGE, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND JUST HOW MUCH THE POOLED MOISTURE CAN MIX OUT BEING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT ON APPARENT TEMPS. THIS ALSO LEADS TO INSTABILITY/CAP VALUES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DESPITE WEAK CONVERGENCE. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER
FLOW LEADS TO MODERATE SHEAR AND COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION FOR NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH WIND POTENTIAL. HAVE
TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE QUICKER FRONT TIMING WITH MORE MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH STILL
MODEST RELIEF TO THE HEAT, ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY EXTENSION TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY IN CHECK.
THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN A SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE AND ENTERING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY,
WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT FOR DECENT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES L0CALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT COOLER WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE,
WITH RIDGE REGAINING SOME STRENGTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND IN THE LATE
WEEK. DEWPOINTS AT TO ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK COULD EASILY BRING
ABOUT MORE HEAT HEADLINE POTENTIAL BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS ARE SUBSIDING FOR THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH S/SW SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...HELLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH PV HEIGHT
ANOMALY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING
EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN
WITH STATIONARY FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MORNING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT. NEAR OUR CWA THE MAIN CLUSTERS ARE JUST
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTH AND EAST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND COMBINED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE (RAP/NAM) ARE INDICATING MODERATE TO
HIGH CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER
VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. IF THIS IS REALIZED WE COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH SHEER PROFILES TENDING TO SUPPORT MORE OF A
LINEAR/CLUSTER EVENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT A
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH HIGHER LFCS AND LOWER 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEASONALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING
WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. I CONSIDERED KEEPING
FORECAST DRY...WITH DUE TO QUESTIONS ON CAP STRENGTH AND LACK OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL (HIGHER DCAPE VALUES) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE CAP
WEAKENS. FOR NOW I JUST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION TO THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ADVERTISED.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET...SO I HAVE
THIS ENDING BY 03Z.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY...RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. WITH
MAXIMIZED MIXING WE COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 105 ON THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE (PRIMARILY IN OUR EASTER CWA). STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK ON MONDAY
WILL KEEP POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVG FOR MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND
ELONGATE EARLY TUESDAY AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO ROTATE ALONG
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. POPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED NIGHT
INTO THURS MORNING WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS A
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. GOOD MOISTURE AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE TUES THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING A PEAK BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EAST/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN GOODLAND AND
MCCOOK. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THAT STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OF KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH PV HEIGHT
ANOMALY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING
EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN
WITH STATIONARY FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MORNING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT. NEAR OUR CWA THE MAIN CLUSTERS ARE JUST
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTH AND EAST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND COMBINED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE (RAP/NAM) ARE INDICATING MODERATE TO
HIGH CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER
VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. IF THIS IS REALIZED WE COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH SHEER PROFILES TENDING TO SUPPORT MORE OF A
LINEAR/CLUSTER EVENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT A
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH HIGHER LFCS AND LOWER 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEASONALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING
WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. I CONSIDERED KEEPING
FORECAST DRY...WITH DUE TO QUESTIONS ON CAP STRENGTH AND LACK OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL (HIGHER DCAPE VALUES) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE CAP
WEAKENS. FOR NOW I JUST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION TO THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ADVERTISED.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET...SO I HAVE
THIS ENDING BY 03Z.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY...RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. WITH
MAXIMIZED MIXING WE COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 105 ON THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE (PRIMARILY IN OUR EASTER CWA). STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK ON MONDAY
WILL KEEP POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVG FOR MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND
ELONGATE EARLY TUESDAY AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO ROTATE ALONG
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. POPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED NIGHT
INTO THURS MORNING WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS A
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. GOOD MOISTURE AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE TUES THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN KANSAS. THIS IS
IMPACTING THE KGLD TERMINAL WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. WHILE STILL NOT
REFLECTING THE IMPACTS OF THE FOG/STRATUS SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG LOCATION/TIMING...AND SHOWS
THIS FOG/STRATUS TRANSITIONING NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE FRONT LIFTS...EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE KMCK TERMINAL. LOWEST
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY AS A RESULT IN THE
CHANGING AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY AS
GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS POORLY SO FAR.
AFTER FOG/STRATUS LIFTS THIS MORNING...THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME HIGHEST CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE IS AT KMCK...SO I INTRODUCED
VCTS GROUP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING...SO IT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT KMCK AROUND 03Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH PV HEIGHT
ANOMALY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING
EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN
WITH STATIONARY FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MORNING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT. NEAR OUR CWA THE MAIN CLUSTERS ARE JUST
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTH AND EAST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND COMBINED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE (RAP/NAM) ARE INDICATING MODERATE TO
HIGH CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER
VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. IF THIS IS REALIZED WE COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH SHEER PROFILES TENDING TO SUPPORT MORE OF A
LINEAR/CLUSTER EVENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT A
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH HIGHER LFCS AND LOWER 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEASONALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING
WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. I CONSIDERED KEEPING
FORECAST DRY...WITH DUE TO QUESTIONS ON CAP STRENGTH AND LACK OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL (HIGHER DCAPE VALUES) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE CAP
WEAKENS. FOR NOW I JUST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION TO THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ADVERTISED.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET...SO I HAVE
THIS ENDING BY 03Z.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY...RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. WITH
MAXIMIZED MIXING WE COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 105 ON THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE (PRIMARILY IN OUR EASTER CWA). STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK ON MONDAY
WILL KEEP POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVG FOR MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND
ELONGATE EARLY TUESDAY AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO ROTATE ALONG
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. POPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED NIGHT
INTO THURS MORNING WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS A
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. GOOD MOISTURE AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE TUES THROUGH FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
GLD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN
07-09Z AS CONDITIONS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY MVFR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS.
MCK WILL START OUT VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-16Z
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING IFR BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AS FOG AND LOWER
CEILINGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN
BY 16Z AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
1930Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADAS. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH AZ WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS OK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT
WAS OBSERVED FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO.
THE NAM AND RAP HAVE TRENDED TO KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE FROM THIS
MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS KEPT THE PRECIP
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH. EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING, THINK THE SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST TAKING THE FORCING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS EVENING. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WE CLEAR OUT, TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE LOW LYING
AREAS. FOR FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM AZ MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
AND HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM
DEVELOP SOME REASONABLE INSTABILITY, SO THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POP UP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK SO AM NOT
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT MAY BE. ALSO MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST
SKILL IN HANDLING THESE WEAK WAVES KICKING OUT, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE HEAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CO ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA,
DEEPENING THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ALL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEST TO
EAST WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS AND NE BORDER. THE INCREASING LLJ
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE CENTERED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, HIGHEST NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
25 KTS. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS STRONG MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB ADVECTS TEMPS TO THE UPPER 20S C INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS. AT THIS TIME, HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS
INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER 90S FURTHER EAST. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S, BELIEVE
HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR
SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY VARY BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON HOW WELL WE
CAN MIX OUT THE LOW 70 DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX
HEAT INDICES FROM 103 TO 106 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BOARDER. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WESTERN KANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO
BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 90S UP
TO 101 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES THROUGHOUT THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 100 DEGREES, POSSIBLY UP TO 105 IN SOME AREAS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS OF 2500-3000 FEET MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
BUT SHOULD AT THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE TAF SITES BY 13Z AND
CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENINGHOURS.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN/HELLER
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY
KICKED IN ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING AND TODAY.
MOST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE SLIGHT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...BENDING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE EASTERN
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OBSERVED SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 1PM CDT SPRAWLED OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEND OUTFLOWS AND SOME UPSHEAR LIFT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
CLOSE TO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS FOR PARTS
OF PIKE...WARRICK AND SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IN
COLLABORATION WITH NWS INDIANAPOLIS...DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE IN SPACE AND TIME. IT
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...ADDED A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
GRIDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VERY
ROBUST CAPE FOR UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR
INITIATION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE INVERSION IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND POSSIBLY A MICROBURST OR TWO) WITH THIS
REGIME IN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SUNDAY. THE ONLY
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE ANY DELAY IN REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SURFACE OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LEFT
OVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL EXPAND WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE/SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS DEFINITELY CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE 3KM HRRR FOR THE EXTREMELY SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...BLENDING TOWARD THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE IN THE
LONGER TIME PERIODS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS AND WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF REGARDING ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE AREA...DRIVEN BY
A MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MED RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
TUE. PCPN CHANCES (HIGHEST IN THE SERN QUADRANT) ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FORCING WILL WANE TUE NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW GOES
SLIGHTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC...LEAVING WED DRY. BY MIDDAY THU...A
SECOND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR WEST
(PARTS OF SERN MO) CLOSER TO A DOMINANT SRN CONUS RIDGE. SOME
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MINOR ENERGY IMPULSE
IN THE WESTERLIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS EVENT SHOULD END
THU NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND THE ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE
MARK IN SERN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN 09-13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KEVV/KOWB VCTS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03-04Z AND TSRA POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z AOB 6 KNOTS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE EXTENDED THE SVR TSTM WATCH
SOUTH TO THE BORDER THROUGH 6 PM...AND CANCELLED THE NORTHERN
PORTION WHERE STORMS HAVE BLOWN THROUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND HEADING EAST. UPDATE WAS SENT TO
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINE UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. IF TRAINING STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...FLOODING
WOULD BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS...FLOW ALOFT IS
ALLOWING A RAPID MOVEMENT OF CELLS WHICH LIMITS THE THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS
THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING
UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE
A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE
EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY
CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST
KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP
THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION
OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR
WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY...
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD
OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND
NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE...
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN
OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO
ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END
UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE
HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE
NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL
COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW
TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM
TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN...
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO
MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR
AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO
DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION
MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT
THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR
THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE
REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WAS EXITING THE NE PART
OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE JKL FORECAST AREA NORTH OF KSME AND KLOZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH. OTHER ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
RESULT IN IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR OR VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND HEADING EAST. UPDATE WAS SENT TO
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINE UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. IF TRAINING STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...FLOODING
WOULD BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS...FLOW ALOFT IS
ALLOWING A RAPID MOVEMENT OF CELLS WHICH LIMITS THE THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS
THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING
UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE
A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE
EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY
CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST
KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP
THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION
OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR
WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY...
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD
OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND
NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE...
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN
OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO
ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END
UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE
HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE
NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL
COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW
TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM
TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN...
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO
MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR
AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO
DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION
MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT
THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR
THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE
REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WAS EXITING THE NE PART
OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE JKL FORECAST AREA NORTH OF KSME AND KLOZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH. OTHER ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
RESULT IN IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR OR VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
135 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Intense bowing segment has now exited our forecast area. This was
an impressive bowing segment that produced wind damage from the I-65
corridor near Louisville eastward through Lexington and Bluegrass
region. Focus now will turn to the south as a convectively induced
outflow boundary lies from near Butler county northeastward to
Madison county. Instability continues to grow across the region
with mixed layer CAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/KG range. DCAPE
values are in the 800-1000 J/KG range as well suggestive of damaging
downbursts with any of the strong storms. Current thinking is that
the main convective corridor will be down from near Bowling Green to
around Lancaster and points south. Some additional convection may
attempt to fire out across southern Indiana, though the airmass will
need to recover some more over the next few hours. Given the breaks
in the sun, that should not be much of a problem. We plan on
keeping the Severe Thunderstorm Watch going through 400 PM EDT. If
convective activity grows larger in scale, will likely extend the
box later this afternoon.
Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Small, but intense bowing segment continues to push eastward across
north-central KY. This storm did have supercellular characteristics
as it went through eastern Meade county, the Fort Knox area, and
through Bullitt county. The cell has bowed out now with a bookend
vortex on the north side heading through Shelby county. This will
head east-northeast through the rest of Shelby and into southern
Henry and western Franklin county over the next 30-45 minutes.
Convective line is moving steadily eastward at 45-48 knots. Based
on this speed, it would impact the Lexington metro and the Kentucky
Horse Park area in the next 30-35 minutes. We expect damaging winds
to be the primary threat with this activity...though an isolated
spinup could still occur.
Elsewhere, stratiform rain continues out behind the main convective
line. This will continue to move eastward as well. So the western
and southern areas of the forecast area will remain generally dry
for the next few hours. Additional convection is likely to develop
across central and southern KY this afternoon. This activity will
be aided by any outflows from the current convection going across
north-central and east-central KY and by strong surface heating.
Damaging winds will still be the primary threat.
Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch #400 is in effect until 400 PM
EDT. Will be monitoring convective trends for any expansions or
extensions in time later this afternoon.
Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary
bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana
continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help
re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning.
The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be
north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott
County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the
next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable
layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get
closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit.
Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to
see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the
region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region.
Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into
the region which should allow decent instability to develop across
the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG
combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce
severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from
our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000
J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards
with this afternoon`s convection.
Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and
south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move
eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing
line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for
seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an
south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later
tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset.
Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and
the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon,
have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern
2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine
gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN
border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the
Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a
bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the
flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common,
though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question
where training of convection occurs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through
the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this
feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the
edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States.
The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are
the models of choice for today.
Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than
yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a
dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there
is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The
wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted
index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There
will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped
east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water
numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will
still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat.
Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly
impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions
will need to be watched for any signs of rotation.
Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy
atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off
on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of
potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems
are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if
training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later.
The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence
temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s.
Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity
for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once
again.
Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the
overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70.
On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding
southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t
be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small
chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to
the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave
moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to
around 90.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper
level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs
riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and
lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over
the local area with mild/humid conditions in place.
A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper
Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track
east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening
trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could
approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise
Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance
range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on
lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through
Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during
peak heating with modest instability values across the area should
yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY
parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central
Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist.
Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper
ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio
Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing
periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout
the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now,
model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday
afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest
instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms,
some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.
For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the
10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the
upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these
features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with
temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds
clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid
90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and
humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the
afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Mid-level vort max pushing out of Missouri sparked this
morning`s convection. This convection has largely push east of the
terminals into eastern Kentucky with a large convective bowing
segment heading for the Ashland, KY area. Along the southern edge
of the convection, a convectively induced boundary has been laid
down. It extends from near KHOP northeastward to south of KLEX. We
expect further convective development along this line through the
afternoon hours.
For now, plan on leaving things dry at KSDF through the afternoon.
However, will need to watch upstream to see if any new convection
develops. VFR conditions along with west to west-northwest winds
are expected. At KLEX, will keep some vicinity thunder in for the
next hour or so and then let things dry out as well.
Best chances of convection look to be at KBWG for the afternoon as
the outflow boundary remains very close to the KBWG terminal. Plan
on leaving in VCTS through the afternoon and will amend accordingly
if storms approach the terminal.
For tonight, expect some partial clearing across the region. Patchy
fog seems to be likely, though not overly confident on widespread
fog development. Thus, have kept some MVFR visibilities in at KLEX
and KBWG for the 11/08-12Z time frame.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EDT /Midnight CDT/ Saturday FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EDT /Midnight CDT/ Saturday FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Small, but intense bowing segment continues to push eastward across
north-central KY. This storm did have supercellular characteristics
as it went through eastern Meade county, the Fort Knox area, and
through Bullitt county. The cell has bowed out now with a bookend
vortex on the north side heading through Shelby county. This will
head east-northeast through the rest of Shelby and into southern
Henry and western Franklin county over the next 30-45 minutes.
Convective line is moving steadily eastward at 45-48 knots. Based
on this speed, it would impact the Lexington metro and the Kentucky
Horse Park area in the next 30-35 minutes. We expect damaging winds
to be the primary threat with this activity...though an isolated
spinup could still occur.
Elsewhere, stratiform rain continues out behind the main convective
line. This will continue to move eastward as well. So the western
and southern areas of the forecast area will remain generally dry
for the next few hours. Additional convection is likely to develop
across central and southern KY this afternoon. This activity will
be aided by any outflows from the current convection going across
north-central and east-central KY and by strong surface heating.
Damaging winds will still be the primary threat.
Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch #400 is in effect until 400 PM
EDT. Will be monitoring convective trends for any expansions or
extensions in time later this afternoon.
Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary
bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana
continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help
re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning.
The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be
north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott
County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the
next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable
layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get
closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit.
Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to
see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the
region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region.
Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into
the region which should allow decent instability to develop across
the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG
combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce
severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from
our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000
J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards
with this afternoon`s convection.
Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and
south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move
eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing
line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for
seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an
south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later
tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset.
Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and
the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon,
have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern
2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine
gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN
border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the
Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a
bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the
flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common,
though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question
where training of convection occurs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through
the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this
feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the
edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States.
The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are
the models of choice for today.
Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than
yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a
dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there
is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The
wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted
index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There
will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped
east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water
numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will
still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat.
Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly
impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions
will need to be watched for any signs of rotation.
Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy
atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off
on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of
potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems
are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if
training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later.
The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence
temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s.
Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity
for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once
again.
Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the
overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70.
On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding
southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t
be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small
chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to
the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave
moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to
around 90.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper
level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs
riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and
lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over
the local area with mild/humid conditions in place.
A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper
Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track
east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening
trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could
approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise
Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance
range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on
lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through
Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during
peak heating with modest instability values across the area should
yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY
parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central
Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist.
Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper
ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio
Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing
periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout
the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now,
model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday
afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest
instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms,
some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.
For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the
10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the
upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these
features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with
temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds
clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid
90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and
humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the
afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Mid-level vort max pushing out of Missouri sparked this
morning`s convection. This convection has largely push east of the
terminals into eastern Kentucky with a large convective bowing
segment heading for the Ashland, KY area. Along the southern edge
of the convection, a convectively induced boundary has been laid
down. It extends from near KHOP northeastward to south of KLEX. We
expect further convective development along this line through the
afternoon hours.
For now, plan on leaving things dry at KSDF through the afternoon.
However, will need to watch upstream to see if any new convection
develops. VFR conditions along with west to west-northwest winds
are expected. At KLEX, will keep some vicinity thunder in for the
next hour or so and then let things dry out as well.
Best chances of convection look to be at KBWG for the afternoon as
the outflow boundary remains very close to the KBWG terminal. Plan
on leaving in VCTS through the afternoon and will amend accordingly
if storms approach the terminal.
For tonight, expect some partial clearing across the region. Patchy
fog seems to be likely, though not overly confident on widespread
fog development. Thus, have kept some MVFR visibilities in at KLEX
and KBWG for the 11/08-12Z time frame.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EDT /Midnight CDT/ Saturday FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EDT /Midnight CDT/ Saturday FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND HEADING EAST. UPDATE WAS SENT TO
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINE UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. IF TRAINING STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...FLOODING
WOULD BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS...FLOW ALOFT IS
ALLOWING A RAPID MOVEMENT OF CELLS WHICH LIMITS THE THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS
THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING
UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE
A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE
EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY
CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST
KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP
THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION
OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR
WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY...
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD
OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND
NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE...
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN
OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO
ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END
UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE
HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE
NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL
COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW
TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM
TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN...
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO
MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR
AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO
DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION
MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT
THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR
THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE
REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SOME IFR AND MVFR FOG AROUND THE SOUTHERN SITES RIGHT NOW...BUT
THAT SHOULD CLEAR UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS IS
STILL TO UNCERTAIN TO GO WITH A PREVAILING WITH TSRA ATTM SO VCTS
WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR THIS UPDATE. THE CONVECTION WANES LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
ALL SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1133 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Small, but intense bowing segment continues to push eastward across
north-central KY. This storm did have supercellular characteristics
as it went through eastern Meade county, the Fort Knox area, and
through Bullitt county. The cell has bowed out now with a bookend
vortex on the north side heading through Shelby county. This will
head east-northeast through the rest of Shelby and into southern
Henry and western Franklin county over the next 30-45 minutes.
Convective line is moving steadily eastward at 45-48 knots. Based
on this speed, it would impact the Lexington metro and the Kentucky
Horse Park area in the next 30-35 minutes. We expect damaging winds
to be the primary threat with this activity...though an isolated
spinup could still occur.
Elsewhere, stratiform rain continues out behind the main convective
line. This will continue to move eastward as well. So the western
and southern areas of the forecast area will remain generally dry
for the next few hours. Additional convection is likely to develop
across central and southern KY this afternoon. This activity will
be aided by any outflows from the current convection going across
north-central and east-central KY and by strong surface heating.
Damaging winds will still be the primary threat.
Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch #400 is in effect until 400 PM
EDT. Will be monitoring convective trends for any expansions or
extensions in time later this afternoon.
Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary
bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana
continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help
re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning.
The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be
north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott
County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the
next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable
layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get
closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit.
Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to
see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the
region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region.
Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into
the region which should allow decent instability to develop across
the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG
combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce
severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from
our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000
J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards
with this afternoon`s convection.
Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and
south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move
eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing
line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for
seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an
south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later
tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset.
Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and
the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon,
have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern
2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine
gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN
border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the
Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a
bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the
flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common,
though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question
where training of convection occurs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through
the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this
feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the
edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States.
The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are
the models of choice for today.
Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than
yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a
dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there
is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The
wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted
index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There
will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped
east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water
numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will
still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat.
Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly
impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions
will need to be watched for any signs of rotation.
Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy
atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off
on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of
potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems
are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if
training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later.
The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence
temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s.
Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity
for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once
again.
Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the
overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70.
On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding
southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t
be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small
chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to
the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave
moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to
around 90.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper
level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs
riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and
lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over
the local area with mild/humid conditions in place.
A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper
Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track
east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening
trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could
approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise
Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance
range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on
lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through
Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during
peak heating with modest instability values across the area should
yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY
parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central
Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist.
Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper
ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio
Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing
periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout
the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now,
model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday
afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest
instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms,
some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.
For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the
10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the
upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these
features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with
temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds
clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid
90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and
humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the
afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning
in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and
interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary
across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward
into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of
thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with gusty
winds and very heavy rain. Though prevailing conditions will be VFR,
individual storms will bring vsbys well below VFR.
Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving
us with quiet weather tonight. We will again face the possibility of
patchy fog and/or low clouds towards morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-063>067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
948 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary
bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana
continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help
re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning.
The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be
north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott
County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the
next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable
layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get
closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit.
Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to
see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the
region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region.
Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into
the region which should allow decent instability to develop across
the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG
combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce
severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from
our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000
J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards
with this afternoon`s convection.
Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and
south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move
eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing
line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for
seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an
south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later
tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset.
Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and
the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon,
have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern
2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine
gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN
border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the
Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a
bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the
flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common,
though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question
where training of convection occurs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through
the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this
feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the
edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States.
The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are
the models of choice for today.
Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than
yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a
dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there
is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The
wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted
index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There
will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped
east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water
numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will
still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat.
Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly
impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions
will need to be watched for any signs of rotation.
Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy
atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off
on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of
potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems
are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if
training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later.
The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence
temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s.
Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity
for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once
again.
Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the
overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70.
On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding
southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t
be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small
chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to
the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave
moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to
around 90.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper
level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs
riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and
lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over
the local area with mild/humid conditions in place.
A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper
Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track
east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening
trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could
approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise
Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance
range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on
lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through
Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during
peak heating with modest instability values across the area should
yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY
parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central
Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist.
Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper
ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio
Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing
periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout
the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now,
model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday
afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest
instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms,
some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.
For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the
10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the
upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these
features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with
temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds
clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid
90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and
humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the
afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning
in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and
interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary
across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward
into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of
thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with gusty
winds and very heavy rain. Though prevailing conditions will be VFR,
individual storms will bring vsbys well below VFR.
Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving
us with quiet weather tonight. We will again face the possibility of
patchy fog and/or low clouds towards morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-063>067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS
THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING
UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE
A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE
EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY
CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST
KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP
THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION
OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR
WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY...
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD
OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND
NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE...
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN
OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO
ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END
UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE
HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE
NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL
COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW
TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM
TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN...
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO
MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR
AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO
DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION
MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT
THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR
THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE
REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SOME IFR AND MVFR FOG AROUND THE SOUTHERN SITES RIGHT NOW...BUT
THAT SHOULD CLEAR UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS IS
STILL TO UNCERTAIN TO GO WITH A PREVAILING WITH TSRA ATTM SO VCTS
WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR THIS UPDATE. THE CONVECTION WANES LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
ALL SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through
the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this
feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the
edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States.
The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are
the models of choice for today.
Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than
yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a
dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there
is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The
wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted
index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There
will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped
east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water
numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will
still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat.
Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly
impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions
will need to be watched for any signs of rotation.
Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy
atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off
on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of
potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems
are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if
training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later.
The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence
temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s.
Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity
for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once
again.
Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the
overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70.
On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding
southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t
be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small
chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to
the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave
moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to
around 90.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper
level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs
riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and
lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over
the local area with mild/humid conditions in place.
A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper
Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track
east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening
trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could
approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise
Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance
range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on
lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through
Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during
peak heating with modest instability values across the area should
yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY
parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central
Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist.
Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper
ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio
Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing
periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout
the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now,
model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday
afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest
instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms,
some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.
For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the
10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the
upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these
features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with
temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds
clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid
90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and
humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the
afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning
in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and
interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary
across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward
into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of
thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with gusty
winds and very heavy rain. Though prevailing conditions will be VFR,
individual storms will bring vsbys well below VFR.
Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving
us with quiet weather tonight. We will again face the possibility of
patchy fog and/or low clouds towards morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE
A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE
EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY
CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST
KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP
THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION
OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR
WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY...
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD
OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND
NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE...
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN
OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO
ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END
UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE
HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE
NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL
COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW
TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM
TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN...
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO
MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR
AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO
DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION
MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT
THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR
THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE
REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG IT...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE FORECAST THAN
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING FOR A
TIME...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH
ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
319 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through
the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this
feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the
edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States.
The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are
the models of choice for today.
Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than
yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a
dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there
is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The
wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted
index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There
will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped
east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water
numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will
still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat.
Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly
impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions
will need to be watched for any signs of rotation.
Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy
atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off
on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of
potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems
are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if
training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later.
The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence
temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s.
Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity
for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once
again.
Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the
overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70.
On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding
southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t
be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small
chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to
the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave
moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to
around 90.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper
level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs
riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and
lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over
the local area with mild/humid conditions in place.
A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper
Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track
east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening
trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could
approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise
Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance
range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on
lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through
Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during
peak heating with modest instability values across the area should
yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY
parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central
Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist.
Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper
ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio
Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing
periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout
the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now,
model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday
afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest
instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms,
some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.
For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the
10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the
upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these
features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with
temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds
clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid
90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and
humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the
afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 127 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015
An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning
in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and
interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary
across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward
into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of
thunderstorms. Considered going with a prevailing TSRA at SDF during
the early to mid afternoon hours, but since it`s still a ways off
decided to stick with VCTS and watch model and radar trends between
now and the 12Z package.
Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving
us with quiet weather tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH MORNING.
ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
INTERESTING EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THINGS VERY
WELL...SURPRISE. FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN IL TO JUST SOUTH OF
ELIZABETHTOWN TO LEX...TO IOB AND THEN SYM TO SOUTH OF CRW.
RELATIVELY WEAK H925-H850 FLOW IS SETTING UP SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER MO/IL. FLOW THEN BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT OWENSBORO EASTWARD. ADD TO THE
MIX A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...OBVIOUSLY
CONCERN IS THAT TRAINING MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT SOME
LOCATIONS. PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM LIFTS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...THE HRRR TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE ECMWF...
GFS...AND RAP SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH STAYS PUT. MODELS
ALSO SEEM TO BE A LITTLE SLOW MOVING A WAVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE HRRR IS BEGINNING TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...
POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE TRAINING HOWEVER AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY...HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
SOME DECENT ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT THERE TODAY. BUT
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER A
BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TOTALLY DISSIPATING. WILL MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND BRING THEM IN LINE WITH
HOURLY TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR RETURNS.
NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER LINE OF
STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THIS
CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS TO EXTRAPOLATE
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG IT...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE FORECAST THAN
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING FOR A
TIME...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH
ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
INTERESTING EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THINGS VERY
WELL...SUPRISE. FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN IL TO JUST SOUTH OF
ELIZABETHTOWN TO LEX...TO IOB AND THEN SYM TO SOUTH OF CRW. RELATIVELY
WEAK H925-H850 FLOW IS SETTING UP SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVER MO/IL. FLOW THEN BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT OWENSBORO EASTWARD. ADD TO THE MIX A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...OBVIOUSLY
CONCERN IS THAT TRAINING MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT
SOME LOCATIONS. PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH RESPECT TO MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM LIFTS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...THE HRRR TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE ECMWF...
GFS...AND RAP SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH STAYS PUT. MODELS
ALSO SEEM TO BE A LITTLE SLOW MOVING A WAVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE HRRR IS BEGINNING TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...
POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE TRAINING HOWEVER AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY...HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
SOME DECENT ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT THERE TODAY. BUT
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER A
BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TOTALLY DISSIPATING. WILL MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND BRING THEM IN LINE WITH
HOURLY TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR RETURNS.
NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER LINE OF
STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THIS
CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS TO EXTRAPOLATE
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAKING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA FELT GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL
LATELY IS PROBABLY TOO PESSIMISTIC. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE
FORECAST AND ALSO DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG A BIT LATER THAN
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WAITING FOR DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
AND UNTIL BETTER CLEARING OCCURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE VALLEY AREAS THOUGH TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FRIDAY. BUT AS LONG AS THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED AND BRIEF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH GULF BREEZE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE THROUGH 21Z. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SEEMS MORE TYPICAL OF OUR SUMMER TIME
REGIME. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY UNTIL 550MB THEN
EASTERLY FURTHER ALOFT. PWAT VALUES ARE BACK UP TO NORMAL AT
1.87IN. ML AND FCST CAPE VALUES ARE 2000+ J/KG SO BOTH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY ARE PRESENT TODAY. FCST LFC IS AT 1300M WHICH IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT ONCE DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING BEGIN FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL START TO DEVELOP. THERE AFTER CBRZ AND LAKEBRZ
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL PROPMT THE DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
/DRJ/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
SHORT TERM...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR FRESNO CA WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
OF AROUND 89 DEGREES IS REACHED. HRRR DOES INDICATE HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 22Z. WSR-88D THIS MORNING SHOWS
A FEW TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS
EXPECTED UNDER A RIDGE AS LOW TO MID 90S ARE RECORDED AGAIN TODAY.
/KEG/
LONG TERM...
OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST
AND CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR KAMA. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SOME SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY VORT MAX/SHORT WAVES THAT
MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME
SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A DOWNBURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER TSTMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE SE LA/MS GULF
COAST. SPC HAS SOME OF THIS AREA OUTLOOKED AS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 100 TO 105 MARK.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THIS SAME PATTERN THROUGH 200
HOURS WITH SOME BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
RUN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WHERE THE EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
"POPCORN" SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH
DAY ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. /KEG/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHUM AND
KMCB. CONVECTION COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/
MARINE...OVERALL NOT MUCH TO REALLY DISCUSS WITH REPSECT TO THE
MARINE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 6-12KTS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE NEAR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS
WHICH WOULD PROVIDELOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 20 10
BTR 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 10
ASD 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 10
MSY 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 20 10
GPT 89 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10
PQL 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SEEMS MORE TYPICAL OF OUR SUMMER TIME
REGIME. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY UNTIL 550MB THEN
EASTERLY FURTHER ALOFT. PWAT VALUES ARE BACK UP TO NORMAL AT
1.87IN. ML AND FCST CAPE VALUES ARE 2000+ J/KG SO BOTH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY ARE PRESENT TODAY. FCST LFC IS AT 1300M WHICH IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT ONCE DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING BEGIN FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL START TO DEVELOP. THERE AFTER CBRZ AND LAKEBRZ
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL PROPMT THE DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
/DRJ/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
SHORT TERM...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR FRESNO CA WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
OF AROUND 89 DEGREES IS REACHED. HRRR DOES INDICATE HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 22Z. WSR-88D THIS MORNING SHOWS
A FEW TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS
EXPECTED UNDER A RIDGE AS LOW TO MID 90S ARE RECORDED AGAIN TODAY.
/KEG/
LONG TERM...
OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST
AND CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR KAMA. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SOME SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY VORT MAX/SHORT WAVES THAT
MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME
SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A DOWNBURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER TSTMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE SE LA/MS GULF
COAST. SPC HAS SOME OF THIS AREA OUTLOOKED AS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 100 TO 105 MARK.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THIS SAME PATTERN THROUGH 200
HOURS WITH SOME BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
RUN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WHERE THE EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
"POPCORN" SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH
DAY ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. /KEG/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHUM AND
KMCB. CONVECTION COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/
MARINE...OVERALL NOT MUCH TO REALLY DISCUSS WITH REPSECT TO THE
MARINE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 6-12KTS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE NEAR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS
WHICH WOULD PROVIDELOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 20 10
BTR 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 10
ASD 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 10
MSY 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 20 10
GPT 89 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10
PQL 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR FRESNO CA WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
OF AROUND 89 DEGREES IS REACHED. HRRR DOES INDICATE HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 22Z. WSR-88D THIS MORNING SHOWS
A FEW TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS
EXPECTED UNDER A RIDGE AS LOW TO MID 90S ARE RECORDED AGAIN TODAY.
/KEG/
.LONG TERM...
OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST
AND CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR KAMA. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SOME SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY VORT MAX/SHORT WAVES THAT
MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME
SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A DOWNBURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER TSTMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE SE LA/MS GULF
COAST. SPC HAS SOME OF THIS AREA OUTLOOKED AS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 100 TO 105 MARK.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THIS SAME PATTERN THROUGH 200
HOURS WITH SOME BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
RUN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WHERE THE EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
"POPCORN" SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH
DAY ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. /KEG/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHUM AND
KMCB. CONVECTION COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...OVERALL NOT MUCH TO REALLY DISCUSS WITH REPSECT TO THE
MARINE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 6-12KTS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE NEAR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS
WHICH WOULD PROVIDELOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 20 10
BTR 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 10
ASD 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 10
MSY 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 20 10
GPT 89 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10
PQL 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
934 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL DRY OUT BY MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
I HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
I EXPUNGED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE I-94 AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS JUST NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. IT SEEMS CLEAR TO ME BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN THE IR
IMAGE LOOPS...RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS...AND RECENT RAP MODEL DATA THE
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MOST WE
WOULD SEE HERE IS SHOWERS FROM A MID CLOUD DECK AND THAT WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...NEARLY ALL OF THAT
WOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. MOSTLY WE WILL BE SEEING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THE STEADIEST
RAINS AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FIRST SHORT WAVE
COMES THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO MOST OF THE
STORMS SHOULD HUG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH INTO SW MI MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE WAVE SLOWLY EXITING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...
EXPECT WE WILL SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF PCPN COVERAGE AS WE GET INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER STILL CAN/T RULE A FEW
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG WITH SOME
SUNSHINE WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS MORE POTENT THEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW BRINGS THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND WE SHOULD THEREFORE
GET WITHIN THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE STORM PATH.
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS STILL
LOOK MARGINAL AS THE JET DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG. SO AT THIS
POINT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED ON MONDAY...AND
MINIMAL CHANCES OTHERWISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE LESS FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS. THE MAIN RISK APPEARS TO EAST OF HWY 131
WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. A LAKE SHADOW MAY KEEP
AREAS WEST OF HWY 131 DRY ON TUESDAY.
A GOOD CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A SFC HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY DELIVERS A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRY TREND MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BRINGING BACK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR THAN THE ECMWF.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS H8 TEMPS ABOVE 20C
ARRIVING NEXT SATURDAY WHICH MAY SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST MIDNIGHT... BUT AS THE
WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER TO I-80 (AROUND 09Z OR S0) MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE I-94 TAF SITES. THERE IS A WAVE ON THE
FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY. ONCE THAT
SURFACE WAVE GETS EAST OF THIS AREA...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
OUR (18Z-21Z). WHILE RAIN IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...WHAT RAIN DOES
HAPPEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND MOSTLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94. I
PUT VCSH FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. THE
I-96 TAF SITES SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT GET THE MVFR CIGS
AT ALL BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
OTHER THEN THE RISK OF STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING...THE LAKE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE
SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THEN...THE
SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES OF RAIN STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL
TOTALS LOCALLY...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. STREAMFLOW REMAINS
HIGH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND.
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER
06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION
MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY
HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND
WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF
THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY
PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE
AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ONE OF TRANSITION...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF CYCLE. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE NORTHLAND
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD
OVERALL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 80 63 79 / 40 30 70 50
INL 62 85 64 83 / 10 40 40 50
BRD 65 89 65 87 / 50 30 70 40
HYR 65 83 66 82 / 30 40 60 50
ASX 62 82 63 80 / 10 30 60 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1157 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME AS
IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR AS WELL AS RAP AND ECWMF, KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE AND
HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF I-70. SO CANCELLED A PORTION OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS ACTUALLY BEEN PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING, BUT DO
EXPECT IT TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT. SO MOST AREAS TO
SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
BYRD
&&
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT. MCV ORIGINATING
FROM A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THIS AFTN ALONG THE UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW AND
PASS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NE OK/SE
KS/SW MO WILL SPREAD NE THRU THE EVNG IN ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
MEANWHILE, THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY CURRENTLY LAYED OUT FROM NE
OK ACROSS STHRN MO AND STHRN IL AND ON INTO THE OH VLY WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE MCV. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN NORTH AS WELL. INDICATIONS ARE IS
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE I44 CORRIDOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FCSTS SO WILL MOVE UP THE START TIME OF A PORTION OF THE
FFA ACROSS CNTRL MO TO 2Z/9PM. MCV SHIFTS NE OF THE FA FRI MRNG.
2%
.LONG TERM: (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FOR THE WKND. THE
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BNDRY DOESN`T GET TOO FAR NORTH OF THE CWA BUT
FAR ENOUGH THAT A HOT/STICKY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND DPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-5000 J/KG
RANGE. A SHORT WAVE SHOULD INDUCE ANOTHER TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS IA
FRI NIGHT WHICH MAY DROP SE SAT MRNG ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY
AFFECTING NTHRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHRAS/TSTMS SHOULD GET GOING SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A BIT FARTHER
NORTH AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT THE FA ATTM. A DIURNAL THREAT
OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WKND...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NTHRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU THE WKND CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS ON SUN THAN SAT DUE TO THE
BNDRY LIFTING FURTHER N AND MID LVL TEMPS INCREASING. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A DECENT GRADIENT WRT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT NE OF THE STL
METRO AREA DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.
THE WET PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LVL RIDGE SHIFTS W ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE FA GETS BACK INTO NW FLOW WITH ANOTHER FROPA ON TUE. THE BNDRY
STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE KS/OK, MO/AR, KY/TN BORDER
WED. THE BNDRY IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK N LATE WED NIGHT/THU IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF AND DVLPNG MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER BNDRY APPROACHES THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL OFF FROM THE VALUES EXPERIENCED THIS WKND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONAL IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 NEXT WEEK DUE TO 850
TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
AREA OF RAIN...WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...IS MOVING
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THIS AREA OF RAIN, BUT KUUV IS REPORTING 600FT
OVERCAST AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS OBVOUSLY SOME EMBEDDED LOW
STRATUS. SHOULD SEE MVFR AND THEN IFR SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS ONLY NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS STAYING IN LOW MVFR CATEGORY. THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, BUT TRAILING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF IF NOT
ALL OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE
MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AND INTO VFR CATEGORY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
KUUV ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAMBERT REPORTED 600FT OVERCAST
CEILINGS WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN, SO WILL START LAMBERT OUT WITH A
TEMPO FOR IFR CEILNIGS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME VARIABILITY FOR
A FEW HOURS, WITH IFR SETTLING DOWN BY 10-12Z. THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, BUT TRAILING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF IF NOT
ALL OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE
MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AND INTO VFR CATEGORY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-
WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR JEFFERSON MO-ST.
CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR RANDOLPH IL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-
FAYETTE IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
WASHINGTON IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
917 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS CONTINUE IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF BILLINGS. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DEPARTING...BUT ANOTHER IS
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WY AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS APPROACHING SHERIDAN COUNTY FROM THE SW. WE ARE ALSO
SEEING SHOWERS FORMING IN POWDER RIVER COUNTY. THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT SO FEEL SOME
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HRRR AND 00Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS AS WELL. HAVE ADDED
ISOLD POPS ACROSS OUR E-SE PARTS THRU 12Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE BILLINGS AREA HAS BEEN PRODUCING
RAINFALL EFFICIENTLY...INDICATIVE OF THE FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS NEAR AN INCH NORTH AND
EAST OF BILLINGS. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
A PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...URGED THAT DIRECTION BY SOME WEAK ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ENERGY WILL RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY...BUT THESE STORMS WILL
FIGHT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITH RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20
PERCENT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER
THE AREA.
TOMORROW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT DOWNSLOPE DRYING
ON SUNDAY BUT ENHANCED ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE
STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS. MONDAY SEES SOME
RIDGING BUILD IN BEHIND SUNDAYS SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS WILL MAKE IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE ENERGY MOVES
INTO WESTERN MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE PERIOD LOOKS MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON TROF CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE TO END THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH A TROF CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. CONTINUED GOOD MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED WITH THE WAVE. RAISED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A ZONAL TYPE FLOW FOR
THURSDAY...BRINGING CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST.
MODELS DIVERGE DRASTICALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING THE FRONT IN
FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY INCREASE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND THEREFORE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE...SO LEANED TOWARD A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF KBIL.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY AND VFR CONDITIONS. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/088 060/090 061/086 060/084 059/088 058/086 057/081
22/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 31/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 054/084 053/086 053/082 052/080 051/085 051/084 049/079
23/T 13/T 34/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 057/091 057/094 058/090 059/087 058/090 057/088 056/084
22/T 11/B 22/T 34/T 42/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 062/091 061/094 062/093 063/089 061/088 059/088 059/084
22/T 10/U 23/T 34/T 42/T 12/T 22/T
4BQ 061/092 060/093 062/092 061/089 060/087 059/086 058/083
21/B 01/B 12/T 34/T 42/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 060/089 060/090 059/091 060/087 059/085 057/084 057/081
22/T 10/U 02/T 44/T 52/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 055/088 054/089 055/087 055/083 055/086 055/083 053/080
22/T 21/B 22/T 34/T 42/T 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
951 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY.
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND UP POPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI BREAKS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES. THE LATEST
NAM...SSEO AND HRRR RUNS ALL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE THIS AFTERNOON. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LINK TO PACIFIC MOISTURE IS NOT STRONG BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW OPENS UP AND ITS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD. LEE
TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...KEEPING DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY.
JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CALIFORNIA TROF WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY. DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS JET AND LEE
TROF/DRY LINE IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH WEST WINDS
BRINGING DRIER AIR OFF THE MOUNTAINS. GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP
WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING UP OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. POTENTIAL HIGH FOR NEEDING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. EBERT
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE VERY SLOW-MOVING
REMNANTS OF THE WEEKEND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY EMERGE AS THE EC MAINTAINS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AND
CALMER CONDITIONS WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DRAWS IN THE NEXT SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...GENERATING MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SEEMS A BIT MORE IN SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH
OTHER. GFS MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH WHILE THE EC ADVERTISES A
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE. SUBTLE PRECIP CUES THIS FAR OUT WERE SIMPLY
BLENDED WITH CLIMO POPS UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT EMERGES.
OVERALL...WE CAN EXPECT A QUICKLY-REPEATING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...TRIED TO SHARPEN UP THE POPS WHERE BEST MODEL
AGREEMENT WAS FOUND AND BLEND MORE BROADLY WHERE IT WAS NOT FOUND.
MICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LINGERING SMOKE PARTICLES MAY MAINTAIN
SOME HAZE BUT LARGELY REDUCED VISIBILITY IS NOT PRESENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY REDUCED VSBY IF ANY STORM
HAPPENS TO PASS OVER A TERMINAL. MICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAINFALL AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF VERY SLOWLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. ANY
DIRECT HIT FROM A STORM WOULD DROP VSBYS BLW 3SM. STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE TO THE ENE NEAR 15KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TURN TO
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED BY
SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AFT 20Z FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED THAN TODAY.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON...
FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS AND SHUTS DOWN CHANCES THERE. A WARMING TREND IS
UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW...AND HOLD AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SHIFT
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ONLY THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON
RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MONSOON MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS. TODAY`S ROUND OF STORMS FAVORS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WHERE SHEAR IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THE CURRENT CROP OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SOCORRO...
BELEN AND ALBUQUERQUE. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO
BETWEEN 23-01Z. LOOKING MORE LIKE A GOOD BET HERE IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO WITH A LAST LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT
3 PM MDT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DIFFERENT THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH...
CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES...
MAINLY EAST...AND A FOCUSING OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING-IN. SO...EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SLOWER
MOTION TO TILT THE THREAT TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MUCH
LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE.
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND BACK DOWN MON/TUE AS THE UPPER HIGH BACKS
OFF TO THE EAST A BIT...ALLOWING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
TILT BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA...
LEAVING-OUT ONLY THE SOUTHEAST IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK-WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT THE IDEAL PLUME POSITIONING WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUR FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD CLIMO FOR FRI/SAT.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DOWN TREND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...WITH
LESS ACTIVITY EAST CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
BIT...FINALLY REACHING ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...WHILE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. HAINES
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...WITH AREAS OF 5 TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. VENTILATION TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF
POOR TO FAIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING A FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON SURGE FROM MEXICO INTO NEW
MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAVORED THE WEST. RH
RECOVERIES TODAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES.
AS THE UPPER CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE PLUME WILL BE
NUDGED TO THE WEST AS WELL SUCH THAT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE WETTING
RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THERE ON MONDAY
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY
COULD ALSO HELP EXTEND THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH COULD WEAKEN/FLATTEN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOME ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MONSOON PLUME COULD REPOSITION OVER NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE
STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS TO RETURN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
FORCING A STRONG 40-60KT UPPER JET OVER AZ/NM. A 594DM H5 UPPER
HIGH DRIFTING WEST OVER EAST TX IS TAPPING A JUICY ATMOSPHERE FROM
MEXICO AND SHIFTING IT NORTHWARD INTO THE FASTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
IN THIS PATTERN IS FORCING SEVERAL STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE STORM COVERAGE IS
LESS TODAY AND ACTIVITY IS BUMPING ALONG QUICKLY FOR JULY...THUS
LIMITING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS
BETWEEN 3PM AND 7PM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION
PATTERN REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. STORM MOTIONS MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST AND IMPINGES ON
THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER BURST IS ADVERTISED BY
MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. INCREASED POPS AGAIN SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...
A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE THE FEWEST STORMS WHILE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES REMAIN MORE ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY REACH NORMAL OR HIGHER LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST DAYS WITH LOWER VALUES...AND SOME AREAS OF
POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION ON SUNDAY AND THURSDAY.
INTERESTING PATTERN FOR JULY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW
POSITIONED CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
JET EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN BAJA...ACROSS ARIZONA AND OVER NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME ARE PRODUCING HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING
HAVE NOT REALLY TRANSLATED INTO WESTERN ZONES TODAY. THUS...
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...MAINTAINING THE FLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDING OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN A WESTWARD NUDGE OF THE MONSOON
PLUME. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE MOST ZONES...WITH THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CORNERS LEAST FAVORED. BY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERN ZONES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FAVORED.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KTS.
ADDITIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS STRONGER
THAN USUAL FOR JULY...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSTRUCTIONS. MAINLY SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TAPERING
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. 05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 56 85 57 87 / 30 10 20 10
DULCE........................... 46 78 48 80 / 30 20 20 20
CUBA............................ 50 76 53 79 / 30 20 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 50 83 53 83 / 30 20 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 49 80 52 80 / 60 30 30 50
GRANTS.......................... 51 82 54 82 / 50 30 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 52 81 55 82 / 30 30 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 56 85 58 87 / 40 20 30 30
CHAMA........................... 45 71 47 74 / 30 20 20 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 78 57 81 / 40 30 30 40
PECOS........................... 52 78 55 82 / 50 30 30 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 74 50 77 / 30 20 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 44 65 46 68 / 30 30 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 69 49 72 / 30 30 20 40
TAOS............................ 49 80 50 82 / 20 20 10 20
MORA............................ 50 77 52 79 / 50 30 30 40
ESPANOLA........................ 55 84 57 87 / 30 20 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 56 78 58 81 / 40 20 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 82 58 85 / 30 20 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 84 62 87 / 40 20 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 86 64 89 / 30 20 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 87 63 90 / 30 20 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 88 63 91 / 30 20 30 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 86 63 90 / 30 20 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 87 63 90 / 30 20 30 30
SOCORRO......................... 61 88 63 92 / 30 20 20 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 81 58 84 / 40 30 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 55 83 59 86 / 40 20 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 83 55 86 / 30 20 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 80 57 84 / 50 30 30 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 81 58 84 / 40 30 20 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 85 61 88 / 50 20 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 57 76 58 80 / 60 60 30 40
CAPULIN......................... 56 82 58 84 / 30 20 10 10
RATON........................... 55 84 56 87 / 30 10 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 54 86 57 88 / 30 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 80 55 83 / 40 30 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 62 91 64 95 / 30 10 20 10
ROY............................. 58 86 61 89 / 30 10 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 64 93 66 97 / 30 10 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 90 65 94 / 40 20 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 93 67 97 / 40 20 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 63 89 65 93 / 30 20 10 5
PORTALES........................ 64 90 66 93 / 30 20 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 89 66 94 / 30 20 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 67 93 67 96 / 50 20 10 5
PICACHO......................... 61 85 61 89 / 60 40 10 20
ELK............................. 59 79 60 83 / 60 50 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KTS.
ADDITIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS STRONGER
THAN USUAL FOR JULY...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSTRUCTIONS. MAINLY SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TAPERING
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...FIRST STARTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THE MONSOONAL PLUME
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND HEATING UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS PAST
WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WANE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT....ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM...LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET...THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW STORMS POP UP...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF
THAT. OTHER MODELS...HOWEVER...SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM...LIMITING CONVECTION. DO SEE SOME DRYING ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL BE EARLIER RATHER
THAN LATER ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THANKS TO A VORT MAX IN THE SW FLOW. SHOULD
HAVE DECENT STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH WITH THAT SAID...SOILS
ARE SATURATED AND IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH WATER TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS.
THE UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND... PUSHING THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PLUME WESTWARD. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE...SO SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN NM. THUS...BEST
STORM CHANCES WILL BE THERE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
CLIMB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE MONDAY AND MORESO ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
OTHERWISE...THE HIGH WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IT MAY SHIFT JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND ON
OCCASION. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AT LEAST
NW NM BY MID WEEK AS MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND FLATTENED. EC IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
HIGH...SO TIME WILL TELL. DOES LOOK LIKE IT WONT BE AS ACTIVE NEXT
WEEK AS IT HAS BEEN THIS PAST WEEK.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER JET RELATED TO UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO COLORADO AND
WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE EARLY THIS MORNING
WESTERN NM SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MAY STILL MIX OUT SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST...BUT
THIS TREND DID NOT WORK OUT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME
30S DEW POINTS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS MORNING SO
PERHAPS THE MODELS WILL BE END UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY TODAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND A SLOWLY WESTWARD SHIFTING UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TEND
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MORE DIRECTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO. BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED PROCESS AND
OVERALL THE WEEK LOOKS LESS ACTIVE THAN THE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
MODELS STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING ALONG/WEST OF THE
BAJA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
NEW MEXICO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WARM
CLOSER TO...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES
SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS DRIER NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL RECOVERIES REMAIN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND
SATURDAY THEN LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT IMPROVE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
HIGHER TERRAIN OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
ERN PLAINS UNTIL AROUND 15Z. ISOLD CONVECTION AT 12Z WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND AFT 18Z. CELL MOTION
GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND SFC
WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AFT 18Z. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...FIRST STARTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THE MONSOONAL PLUME
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND HEATING UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS PAST
WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WANE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT....ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM...LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET...THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW STORMS POP UP...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF
THAT. OTHER MODELS...HOWEVER...SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM...LIMITING CONVECTION. DO SEE SOME DRYING ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL BE EARLIER RATHER
THAN LATER ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THANKS TO A VORT MAX IN THE SW FLOW. SHOULD
HAVE DECENT STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH WITH THAT SAID...SOILS
ARE SATURATED AND IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH WATER TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS.
THE UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND... PUSHING THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PLUME WESTWARD. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE...SO SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN NM. THUS...BEST
STORM CHANCES WILL BE THERE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
CLIMB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE MONDAY AND MORESO ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
OTHERWISE...THE HIGH WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IT MAY SHIFT JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND ON
OCCASION. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AT LEAST
NW NM BY MID WEEK AS MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND FLATENNED. EC IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
HIGH...SO TIME WILL TELL. DOES LOOK LIKE IT WONT BE AS ACTIVE NEXT
WEEK AS IT HAS BEEN THIS PAST WEEK.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER JET RELATED TO UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO COLORADO AND
WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE EARLY THIS MORNING
WESTERN NM SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MAY STILL MIX OUT SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST...BUT
THIS TREND DID NOT WORK OUT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME
30S DEW POINTS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS MORNING SO
PERHAPS THE MODELS WILL BE END UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY TODAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND A SLOWLY WESTWARD SHIFTING UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TEND
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MORE DIRECTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO. BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED PROCESS AND
OVERALL THE WEEK LOOKS LESS ACTIVE THAN THE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
MODELS STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING ALONG/WEST OF THE
BAJA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
NEW MEXICO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WARM
CLOSER TO...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES
SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS DRIER NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL RECOVERIES REMAIN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND
SATURDAY THEN LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT IMPROVE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...FIRST STARTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THE MONSOONAL PLUME
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND HEATING UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS PAST
WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WANE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT....ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM...LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET...THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW STORMS POP UP...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF
THAT. OTHER MODELS...HOWEVER...SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM...LIMITING CONVECTION. DO SEE SOME DRYING ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL BE EARLIER RATHER
THAN LATER ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THANKS TO A VORT MAX IN THE SW FLOW. SHOULD
HAVE DECENT STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH WITH THAT SAID...SOILS
ARE SATURATED AND IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH WATER TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS.
THE UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND... PUSHING THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PLUME WESTWARD. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE...SO SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN NM. THUS...BEST
STORM CHANCES WILL BE THERE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
CLIMB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE MONDAY AND MORESO ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
OTHERWISE...THE HIGH WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IT MAY SHIFT JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND ON
OCCASION. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AT LEAST
NW NM BY MID WEEK AS MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND FLATENNED. EC IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
HIGH...SO TIME WILL TELL. DOES LOOK LIKE IT WONT BE AS ACTIVE NEXT
WEEK AS IT HAS BEEN THIS PAST WEEK.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER JET RELATED TO UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO COLORADO AND
WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE EARLY THIS MORNING
WESTERN NM SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MAY STILL MIX OUT SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST...BUT
THIS TREND DID NOT WORK OUT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME
30S DEW POINTS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS MORNING SO
PERHAPS THE MODELS WILL BE END UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY TODAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND A SLOWLY WESTWARD SHIFTING UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TEND
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MORE DIRECTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO. BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED PROCESS AND
OVERALL THE WEEK LOOKS LESS ACTIVE THAN THE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
MODELS STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING ALONG/WEST OF THE
BAJA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
NEW MEXICO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WARM
CLOSER TO...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES
SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS DRIER NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL RECOVERIES REMAIN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND
SATURDAY THEN LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT IMPROVE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN TS/SH COVERAGE THROUGH 08/09Z WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS WHICH INCLUDES IMPACTS TO TCC. ANOTHER BATCH OF SEMI
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCT SH AND ISOLD TS WILL BE
FOUND CROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. IMPACTS TO GUP/FMN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT PRETTY HIT AND MISS. EVENTUALLY ABQ/AEG SHOULD SEE
SOME SH DVLPMENT BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER. CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP IN EARNEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL MTNS LATE
MORN/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OUT IN COVERAGE. DOESNT APPEAR TO
BE AS MUCH COVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED TODAY SO USING
VCTS/VCSH. ROW/TCC HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF DIRECT TS HOWEVER AND
LASTING WELL INTO TMRW EVE. HAVE SCALED BACK MVFR CIG POTENTIAL AT
TCC LATE TONIGHT.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 81 55 86 58 / 30 10 10 20
DULCE........................... 74 46 78 48 / 40 30 20 30
CUBA............................ 74 49 77 52 / 50 40 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 79 48 84 53 / 30 10 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 75 49 81 52 / 40 20 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 78 50 83 54 / 30 30 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 76 52 81 55 / 30 20 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 81 55 85 58 / 30 20 40 40
CHAMA........................... 72 44 74 46 / 50 40 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 55 78 57 / 50 50 40 40
PECOS........................... 74 52 78 54 / 50 50 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 48 75 51 / 30 30 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 66 43 70 46 / 40 30 30 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 46 72 48 / 50 40 30 30
TAOS............................ 78 47 79 51 / 30 30 10 20
MORA............................ 74 50 77 52 / 50 50 40 40
ESPANOLA........................ 80 54 84 56 / 40 40 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 77 56 81 57 / 40 40 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 55 84 57 / 30 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 81 60 84 63 / 40 40 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 63 86 66 / 30 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 60 87 63 / 30 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 61 86 64 / 30 30 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 60 86 63 / 30 30 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 82 61 86 63 / 30 30 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 84 62 88 63 / 30 30 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 56 80 58 / 50 50 30 40
TIJERAS......................... 79 56 83 59 / 40 50 30 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 52 83 54 / 40 40 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 77 55 80 57 / 50 50 30 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 56 80 59 / 50 50 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 61 84 61 / 50 50 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 74 57 75 57 / 60 70 60 40
CAPULIN......................... 78 54 82 57 / 30 30 20 20
RATON........................... 82 54 85 55 / 30 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 83 56 86 58 / 30 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 53 81 55 / 40 40 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 84 61 92 64 / 20 30 10 10
ROY............................. 81 58 86 61 / 30 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 86 64 91 66 / 40 30 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 85 62 89 64 / 50 40 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 65 94 67 / 40 40 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 84 63 89 64 / 50 50 20 10
PORTALES........................ 84 65 90 65 / 50 50 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 64 88 65 / 50 40 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 88 66 93 67 / 50 50 20 10
PICACHO......................... 81 61 85 61 / 60 50 40 20
ELK............................. 76 59 79 58 / 60 60 40 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1020 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY...MILD MID-JULY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS). STILL SOME
LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE
BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH
COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH STILL
SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY FROM MONTPELIER
NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE,
TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP
INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING
HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED
500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO
WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS
SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM
SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY
TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE
GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800
AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE
DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV
4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND
SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL
FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO
THE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION
OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING
CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECK REMAININ IN PLACE. WITH CLOUD COVER NOT
FORECASTING FOG FORMATION AT TAF SITES. WEAK FRONT TO NORTH
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN ONTARIO SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. LATEST DATA CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHEAST NY AND VERMONT CANADIAN BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT TAF SITES DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES KSLK/KMPV,
HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW OF HITTING INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE AND
IN OUTER PERIOD OF TAF CYCLE SO OPTED TO KEEP THEM OUT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN
FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER.
00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA HAS TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NC IN A STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS
NORTHEAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED AND LESS INTENSE THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN....WITH REALLY JUST SHOWERS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF I-95...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT
HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE RAH
CWA AND WITHIN THE ONGOING SEVERE TSTORM WATCH. TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN EXPANDING BUT NO MORE THAN A STRAY
SHOWER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OFFSHORE
AND ALLOW A SECONDARY...EFFECTIVE FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SLIP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL ADVECT SOME LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER VA... WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE 1000-
2000FT RANGE...SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...BUT
NAM/GFS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER EAST OF US HWY 1. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOWER SOUTH AND EAST 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SATURDAY...
WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE NC/VA COAST...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. THICKNESSES AROUND
1400M SUNDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 10M BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS SHOULD BE
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 87-91 RANGE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND/OR OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME SOME
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING OR EVEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND ITS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY THERE WILL BE TO AID IN ANY
ADDITIONAL MUCAPE OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP WEST TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST...FOLLOWING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED OVER TX/LA...WITH
TROUGHS OVER EACH COAST...THROUGH THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO POTENTIAL
REMNANT MCS/MCVS TRACKING OVERHEAD AND HENCE SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN PRECISE TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY
CONVECTION...WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL TYPE POPS EACH DAY. AS OF NOW...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE AS
MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION BETTER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE PROGGED OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35
KNOTS IS EXPECTED AND MODELS INDICATE A MODIFIED EML ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THE ECMWF IS STILL 12-24 HOURS BEHIND IN RELATION TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST SHORTWAVE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
SHOW THE RELATIVE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH AT LEAST CLIMO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT THIS COULD BE ALTERED
BY HIGHER CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY... EXCEPT A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SUNDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
MONDAY. HOWEVER... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE KINT/KGSO AREAS... AND ELSEWHERE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...PWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2150 UTC OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A
TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 18-20 UTC HRRR RUNS...INTRODUCED POPS
TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH
A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. OVER OUR
AREA...SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STARTING
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY
A VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES...THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR IS AVAILABLE
SO EXPECT STORMS OVERALL TO REMAIN TAME AND RATHER PULSE.
ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DRAWING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A DRYLINE WILL SETUP
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TIMING OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIETY OF SHORT
WAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST SHEAR
TO BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE SATURDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
RECEIVE MANY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. A RATHER
WARM AND MUGGY SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE INDICATING
VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST SPC
SEVERE OUTLOOKS PLACE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST.
AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS WEEKEND`S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ISOLD/SCT -TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
737 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT AKRON CANTON AREA SHOWING SOME SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE OCCURRING. LATEST HRRR MODEL AND NAM MODEL SHOW SOME
PATCHY SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO ADDED A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...MORE CLOUDS
ADVANCING IN WITH NEXT SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
STILL THINK SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE...SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT
THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL FORCING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE
PLAYED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES VERSUS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
NORTH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER AND THIS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT FOR A VERY SHORT
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AS SUN
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH.
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST A BIT AS MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF A
LATER ARRIVAL TIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY PLACING THE FORECAST
AREA IN A WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS. ACTUALLY LOOKING AT DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
PRECIPITATION THREAT AS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA
BY THIS TIME.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
I DID NOT GO EXCESSIVE WITH THE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SPREADING OUT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR BASIN AVERAGES.
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
HIGHS BY MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD WIND UP BEING OUR FIRST MUGGY
NIGHT OF THE SUMMER SEASON AS LOWS HOVER AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER
FRUSTRATING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES BUT
APPARENTLY NOT ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SHORT WAVES OR SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SO THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH DAYS...IF
ANY...WOULD BE DRY. I SUSPECT THAT TUESDAY WILL TRY TO DRY OUT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE
TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA AS A DECENT SHORT ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY COULD BE DRY
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THURSDAY.
THE GFS REMAINS WARMER THEN THE OTHER MODELS BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY FOR THE TEMPERATURES. WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO KERI THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG LINGER FARTHER SOUTH. THE FOG SEEMS SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THRU MID MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP FROM KFDY TO KMFD TO KCAK THIS
MORNING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT ... WITH PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES...JUST A FEW SPOTS WITH IFR VISIBILITIES.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTUAL WIND WILL LIKELY END UP AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
AN ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL COME AROUND
FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS MAY PICK UP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
633 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS APPEARING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS ACCORDING TO
SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HRRR OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...LEADING TO HIGHER POPS OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...MORE CHANCES FOR TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT GET OUT OF THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT IS VERY FRAGILE IN
TERMS OF ANY SORT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHETHER IT BE FROM AN
OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
FORECAST FOR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.50-
1.75 INCH RANGE REMAIN IN PLACE FROM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THERE IS WHAT SEEMS TO
BE A CONSTANT CONCERN FOR ANY SORT OF PROLONGED RAINFALL IN THE FORM
OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OR TRAINING CONVECTION.
BOTH HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN THIS PATTERN. THAT
SAID...WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY SORT OF FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL STRONGLY WORD POTENTIAL ISSUES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT OVER
THE NEXT 6-18 HOURS AND WILL BE LARGELY BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS.
KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR LOWLAND HIGHS AND
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ALL CONTINUE THE QUITE UNSETTLED...WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON VERY
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA WITH EACH DISTURBANCE AND THE
QUITE WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS ONE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY. GIVEN THE EXACT TRACK UNCERTAINTIES OF
THE DISTURBANCES...AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OF ANY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES...WILL TEND TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS. HOWEVER...IF ANY TIME
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...IT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LUSH VEGETATION...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ALSO HUMID. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALLOWED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...ALLOWED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON.
WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.
WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY FROM TERMINAL TO TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
PKB SOCKED IN WITH FOG...WHILE LIFR TO MVFR STRATUS PLAGUES THE
OTHER SITES EXCEPT FOR CRW...WHICH IS VFR.
IMPROVE THESE CONDITIONS SLOWLY THIS MORNING IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE...THEN BRING IN SHOWERS WITH VCTS/CB FOR THE BULK OF
THE SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...SO IT WILL NOT BE LIMITED TO DIURNAL HEATING TIMES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION TO VARY TODAY. MAY NEED
BRIEF IFR TEMPOS/AMENDMENTS AS CONVECTION EVOLVES.
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT AKRON CANTON AREA SHOWING SOME SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE OCCURRING. LATEST HRRR MODEL AND NAM MODEL SHOW SOME
PATCHY SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO ADDED A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...MORE CLOUDS
ADVANCING IN WITH NEXT SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
STILL THINK SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE...SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT
THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL FORCING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE
PLAYED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES VERSUS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
NORTH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER AND THIS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT FOR A VERY SHORT
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AS SUN
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH.
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST A BIT AS MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF A
LATER ARRIVAL TIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY PLACING THE FORECAST
AREA IN A WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS. ACTUALLY LOOKING AT DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
PRECIPITATION THREAT AS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA
BY THIS TIME.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
I DID NOT GO EXCESSIVE WITH THE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SPREADING OUT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR BASIN AVERAGES.
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
HIGHS BY MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD WIND UP BEING OUR FIRST MUGGY
NIGHT OF THE SUMMER SEASON AS LOWS HOVER AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER
FRUSTRATING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES BUT
APPARENTLY NOT ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SHORT WAVES OR SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SO THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH DAYS...IF
ANY...WOULD BE DRY. I SUSPECT THAT TUESDAY WILL TRY TO DRY OUT AS
THE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE
TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA AS A DECENT SHORT ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY COULD BE DRY
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THURSDAY.
THE GFS REMAINS WARMER THEN THE OTHER MODELS BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY FOR THE TEMPERATURES. WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST. WITH THE FLOW BEING
LIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING IFR FOG
AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND
LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MID AND LATE
MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTUAL WIND WILL LIKELY END UP AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
AN ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL COME AROUND
FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS MAY PICK UP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
WEAK RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE ECHOES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS RECENTLY AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS ARE
PICKING UP ON MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
REORIENTED AND EXPANDED POPS A LITTLE WITH THESE RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OK. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT SOME LOCATIONS AND/OR TIME
PERIOD FOR MENTION IN TAF RIGHT NOW. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NW PORTIONS
OF OK EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
GREATEST CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NW OK. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
AFTER TODAY THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AWHILE ACROSS
THE FA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH THE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THAT TIME. ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE NOT QUITE AS STRONG... ANY DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 72 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 90 72 94 72 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 88 71 94 73 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 90 74 94 73 / 20 10 0 0
DURANT OK 92 72 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
829 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS PUSHING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACNW COAST. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
AND FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES EAST. EXPECT SOME CONTINUED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST, MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING INLAND WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
MOVE ONSHORE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE PACNW
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS INDICATED IN THE GFS AND NAM FROM THE
SISKIYOUS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON EXPECTED MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST HAS BROUGHT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA
BASIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -MND
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BECOME CHOPPY AND WIND-DRIVEN. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS TUESDAY...SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. -MND
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WELL-DEFINED
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE COAST NOW...AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY GENERIC SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NOW
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND DON`T EXPECT MANY STORMS TODAY
BECAUSE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA.
TONIGHT...THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST AREA. TOMORROW IS TRENDING LESS UNSTABLE PER RECENT
MODEL RUNS...THOUGH STILL A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY. WE HAVE
KEPT CONFIDENCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST VERSUS COVERAGE...SIMPLY
BECAUSE THE PATTERN AND THE PARAMETERS THAT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT VERY ROBUST TOMORROW AND THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS
ALIGN WITH THIS THINKING. SAID MORE SUCCINCTLY...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH WE`LL HAVE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON MONDAY MIDLEVEL FLOW SWITCHES MORE WESTERLY AND THIS BRINGS IN
DRIER AIR ALOFT...FURTHER REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING.
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NUDGES EASTWARD SOME...WARMING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SHOW A HEFTY
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC WATERS. THE EC PEGS IT AT 561
DM. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IN A
REGION OF NORTHERLY OR WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY KEEPING US
DRY AND PREVENTING ANY HEATWAVES. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY DICTATE OUR WEATHER OUT PAST DAY 7. OF NOTE ARE SOME
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC THAT WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED...AND MAY
WREAK HAVOC ON MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH..THE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY COOLER BUT MUCH DRIER AIR.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AND THE VALLEYS AND
LOWER SLOPES OF THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR IS
ENTRENCHED.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA
WILL BE IN THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDING INDICATES LIFTED INDEX OF -3 IS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE THIS AREA
IN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES..THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND LIFTING OF THE PARCEL FROM THE CLOUD BASE ONLY GIVES
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY..A THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXPAND
NORTH INTO THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTHERN OREGON LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWERING NIGHT TIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
443 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WELL-DEFINED
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE COAST NOW...AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY GENERIC SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NOW
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND DON`T EXPECT MANY STORMS TODAY
BECAUSE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA.
TONIGHT...THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST AREA. TOMORROW IS TRENDING LESS UNSTABLE PER RECENT
MODEL RUNS...THOUGH STILL A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY. WE HAVE
KEPT CONFIDENCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST VERSUS COVERAGE...SIMPLY
BECAUSE THE PATTERN AND THE PARAMETERS THAT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT VERY ROBUST TOMORROW AND THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS
ALIGN WITH THIS THINKING. SAID MORE SUCCINCTLY...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH WE`LL HAVE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON MONDAY MIDLEVEL FLOW SWITCHES MORE WESTERLY AND THIS BRINGS IN
DRIER AIR ALOFT...FURTHER REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING.
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NUDGES EASTWARD SOME...WARMING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SHOW A HEFTY
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC WATERS. THE EC PEGS IT AT 561
DM. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IN A
REGION OF NORTHERLY OR WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY KEEPING US
DRY AND PREVENTING ANY HEATWAVES. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY DICTATE OUR WEATHER OUT PAST DAY 7. OF NOTE ARE SOME
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC THAT WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED...AND MAY
WREAK HAVOC ON MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST HAS BROUGHT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA
BASIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -MND
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BECOME CHOPPY AND WIND-DRIVEN. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS TUESDAY...SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. -MND
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH..THE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY COOLER BUT MUCH DRIER AIR.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AND THE VALLEYS AND
LOWER SLOPES OF THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR IS
ENTRENCHED.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA
WILL BE IN THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDING INDICATES LIFTED INDEX OF -3 IS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE THIS AREA
IN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES..THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND LIFTING OF THE PARCEL FROM THE CLOUD BASE ONLY GIVES
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY..A THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXPAND
NORTH INTO THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTHERN OREGON LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWERING NIGHT TIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
NSK/FB/MND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
1022 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INLAND TODAY. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING PLENTY OF VORTICIES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW. THESE ARE
ENHANCING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MUCH OF
THIS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER
VORT CENTER IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
EVENING TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY BASIN. THE UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A
LITTLE COOLER TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BRING HIGHS DOWN ABOUT 3-8 DEGREES. GRADIENTS ALSO SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. FOR THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE IN THE 70S. 94
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 100-150 TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCT
SHOWERS MAINLY IMPACTING RDM BDN. WEST WINDS 15-25KT AT DLS.
OTHERWISE WINDS 5-10KT TONIGHT AND 10-20KT FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SWING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL SEE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE
PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY END THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON, AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH OF THESE SAME
AREAS DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP
VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS GOING ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WALLOWA
COUNTY. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACNW SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE
FLOW OVER THE AREA SOUTHWESTERLY. THUS VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. 90
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONSENSUS IN
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR
127W SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST, THUS GIVING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO FORECAST
AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION
RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING SINKING MOTION EAST OF THE CASCADES
THUS YIELDING DRY ND STABLE CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM IN
WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE IN A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH PRODUCES WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES RESULTING IN SINKING AIR WHICH RESULTS IN DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. POLAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD GET A SIGH OF RELIEF
AS THE WEATHER TRANSITIONS FROM THE HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS TO MORE COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE THE TIME OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED SOME OF THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN DESCHUTES COUNTY PRODUCED ABOUT 60 STRIKES IN THE PAST 30
MINUTES. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. MANY STORMS WILL BRING UP TO
A HALF OF AN INCH AND SOME ONE INCH OR MORE...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FIREFIGHTERS IN STEEP
TERRAIN SHOULD WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS
DEBRIS FLOWS. WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 67 91 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
ALW 71 94 68 87 / 20 30 30 20
PSC 69 98 69 91 / 10 20 20 10
YKM 69 95 67 88 / 10 20 20 10
HRI 70 96 68 90 / 20 20 20 20
ELN 68 93 65 86 / 10 20 20 10
RDM 58 83 55 82 / 40 30 20 20
LGD 52 85 56 79 / 40 60 60 60
GCD 59 84 58 84 / 50 70 60 60
DLS 71 87 68 83 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-
640>645.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ643-645.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ030.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
94
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
741 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RIDE FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPECTACULAR DAWN PAINTING THE THIN CIRRUS DECK BRIGHT ORANGE AND
SHADES OF PINK BENEATH THE BACKGROUND OF BLUE.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE
TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
00Z GEFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WOULD IMPLY INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CLOUDS
VERY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE.
AFTER SOME PATCHY LARGE STREAM/RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES OVER
THE NEXT 3 HOURS...EXPECT A NICE END TO THE WORK WEEK WEATHER-WISE
WITH PLENTY OF SUN...WARM TEMPS AND JUST A LIGHT NWRLY BREEZE.
ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 14C SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE M80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES CREEPING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE PENN TURNPIKE EARLY SAT MORNING. A BLEND OF
THE OPER 06Z NAM...THE 03Z SREF...THE 00Z GEFS...AND HRRR POINT
TWD CONDITIONS STAYING TOTALLY DRY TODAY AND SATURDAY NEAR...AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN /PERHAPS UP TO 0.10 OF AN INCH/ LATE
TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE COOL U40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE MID 60S ON THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NORTH WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE THE SW 1/4 TO 1/3 OF PENN WILL SEE PERIODS OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE CHC FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY SAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SCOOTS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH ACRS WVA AND NRN VA.
HIGH TEMPS SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
RESIDES WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA
COAST...WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH
THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES
DIMINISHED THE ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND
LONG TERM.
AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE
REGION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. MORNING LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE LAURELS WILL MIX OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL BY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WEST.
SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
MON-NIGHT-TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RIDE FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPECTACULAR DAWN PAINTING THE THIN CIRRUS DECK BRIGHT ORANGE AND
SHADES OF PINK BENEATH THE BACKGROUND OF BLUE.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE
TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
00Z GEFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WOULD IMPLY INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CLOUDS
VERY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE.
AFTER SOME PATCHY LARGE STREAM/RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES OVER
THE NEXT 3 HOURS...EXPECT A NICE END TO THE WORK WEEK WEATHER-WISE
WITH PLENTY OF SUN...WARM TEMPS AND JUST A LIGHT NWRLY BREEZE.
ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 14C SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE M80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES CREEPING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE PENN TURNPIKE EARLY SAT MORNING. A BLEND OF
THE OPER 06Z NAM...THE 03Z SREF...THE 00Z GEFS...AND HRRR POINT
TWD CONDITIONS STAYING TOTALLY DRY TODAY AND SATURDAY NEAR...AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN /PERHAPS UP TO 0.10 OF AN INCH/ LATE
TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE COOL U40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE MID 60S ON THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NORTH WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE THE SW 1/4 TO 1/3 OF PENN WILL SEE PERIODS OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE CHC FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY SAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SCOOTS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH ACRS WVA AND NRN VA.
HIGH TEMPS SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
RESIDES WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA
COAST...WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH
THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES
DIMINISHED THE ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND
LONG TERM.
AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE
REGION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW
INVERSION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOWER
STRATUS. KBFD HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KJST
TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
OVER CENTRAL AIRFIELDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES.
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING IMPROVING AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WEST.
SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
MON-NIGHT-TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
810 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT.
ONLY THUNDERSTORM ACTION IN BOX IS NORTH OF BISMARCK ND WITH A
LONE SUPERCELL ALONG THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IS
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT 800 MB...WITH A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE. IN
FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURPRISINGLY LOW...ONLY 1.13
INCHES. WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MOST OF THE CU FIELD
IS GONE...AND ANYTHING TRYING TO GET GOING IS DYING QUICK. STILL
CANT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE EAST OF
MOBRIDGE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST AT OR AFTER SUNSET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET DOES GET GOING AFTER 03Z...BUT ITS BRIEF BEFORE
TURNING SW AND STRONGEST FARTHER EAST NEAR THE MN BORDER. THE WATCH
WILL CONTINUE BUT IF NOTHING IS GOING BY 03Z...MAY HAVE TO CANCEL
IT. MINOR UPDATES MADE TO GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 700MB
READINGS ARE IN THE +8 TO +11C RANGE...WITH WARMEST READINGS OVERTOP
THE DRY LINE BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70F...ENOUGH TO GENERATE OVER
4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WINDS THROUGH THE PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SPC SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. POOR OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STEMS FORM THE LACK OF ANY UPPER WAVE...AND A LACK OF
CONVECTION BEING GENERATED IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE WITH ONLY THE MOST
RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR DEPICTING ANY STORMS. BEST
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK
THE CAP...WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE WAVE IS EVIDENT FOR SUNDAY. THE DRY LINE WILL
ALSO BE PUSHED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...SO TEMPERATURES COULD MAX OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 100. WILL LEAVE HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE IN PLACE.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT FETCH OUT OF THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE
REGION AND MORE SMOKE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON STORM MONDAY THANKS
TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF
S/W ENERGY AS A DECENT JET DIGS A TROF INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRETTY DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME DRYNESS AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABR AND KATY THIS EVENING
THROUGH 06Z. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 50
KTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ006>008-011-
018>023.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AT MID AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER AND A RISE IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND HRRR TRY TO SHOW A FEW
CELLS MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL JUST LEAVE 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO WEATHER MENTIONED. A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DECREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS FORECAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE A BRIEF BOUT
WITH STRATUS OVER WACO AROUND SUNRISE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 94 76 96 77 / 5 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 73 94 74 96 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 73 92 73 93 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 72 94 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 74 93 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 76 95 77 96 78 / 5 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 74 93 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 76 93 74 94 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 93 73 95 73 / 5 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 93 73 95 73 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
LOWER MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE NOW SCATTERED
OUT AND RISEN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z SCT040
CUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL CURRENTLY AND WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE TO FEW
AND RISE TOWARDS 060 THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 10-
15 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WIND SPREADS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CALMING TO NEAR 5 KT OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND
IFR CIGS LOOKS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
TAF SITES WITH SOME POSSIBLE POCKETS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS
COULD LOWER TO 600-900 FR RANGE. SOME SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON APPROACH/DEPARTURE IN THE 3-6 SM RANGE
FROM 09-14Z. EXPECT A RETURN OF VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON A SIMILAR
TIME FRAME TO TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONLY REAL MENTIONABLE FORECAST VARIABLE TODAY IS THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS SOMEWHAT OF
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THESE AREAS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PRESSURE FALLS AND THE ORIENTATION
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT APPEARS A BIT OF A ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT MAY BE IN PLAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 18Z
TODAY. A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE MAXIMUM WAS
DEPICTED IN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE RAP MODEL AND
WITH GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING 15+ KT WINDS ALREADY IN
PLACE...THOUGHT GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 30 MPH WAS VALID.
THERE STILL EXISTS A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AS SOME SEE BREEZE
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES WITH
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING DOESNT BODE WELL FOR THUNDER
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. WENT
AHEAD AND LEFT ISO TRW IN JUST IN CASE BUT BASICALLY...THE ONLY
REASON ITS BEING MENTIONED IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO OTHER POP IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEP AND STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PARK ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AND MEANDER AROUND THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS ATTEMPTING TO
ADVERTISE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE ABANDONED
THAT THINKING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE AREA.
WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND MOISTURE DECREASING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING DEL
RIO...WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ASSUMING
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY.
PWAT VALUES IN THE LONG RANGE GFS BOUNCE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING GETTING PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WITH POPS ABSENT
FROM THE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND RH VALUES DECREASING
PROGRESSIVELY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SKEDADDLE...A FOCUS ON HOW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR
THE LATTER PART OF JULY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 92 74 94 73 / - - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 91 73 93 73 / - 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 72 93 72 / - 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 72 94 73 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 93 75 96 75 / - 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 73 93 73 / - - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 72 94 72 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 73 93 72 / - 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 91 74 92 74 / - 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 91 74 94 73 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 94 73 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR
BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER INTO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST AT KDRT. FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND WE/LL MENTION A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35
AFTER 08Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONLY REAL MENTIONABLE FORECAST VARIABLE TODAY IS THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS SOMEWHAT OF
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THESE AREAS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PRESSURE FALLS AND THE ORIENTATION
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT APPEARS A BIT OF A ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT MAY BE IN PLAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 18Z
TODAY. A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE MAXIMUM WAS
DEPICTED IN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE RAP MODEL AND
WITH GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING 15+ KT WINDS ALREADY IN
PLACE...THOUGHT GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 30 MPH WAS VALID.
THERE STILL EXISTS A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AS SOME SEE BREEZE
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES WITH
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING DOESNT BODE WELL FOR THUNDER
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. WENT
AHEAD AND LEFT ISO TRW IN JUST IN CASE BUT BASICALLY...THE ONLY
REASON ITS BEING MENTIONED IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO OTHER POP IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEP AND STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PARK ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AND MEANDER AROUND THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS ATTEMPTING TO
ADVERTISE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE ABANDONED
THAT THINKING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE AREA.
WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND MOISTURE DECREASING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING DEL
RIO...WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ASSUMING
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY.
PWAT VALUES IN THE LONG RANGE GFS BOUNCE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING GETTING PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WITH POPS ABSENT
FROM THE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND RH VALUES DECREASING
PROGRESSIVELY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SKEDADDLE...A FOCUS ON HOW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR
THE LATTER PART OF JULY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 73 92 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 72 93 / 0 - 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 71 90 72 94 / 0 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 74 93 75 96 / 0 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 90 73 93 / 0 - - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 91 72 94 / 0 - - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 74 91 74 92 / 10 - 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 91 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 94 / 0 - - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
317 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONLY REAL MENTIONABLE FORECAST VARIABLE TODAY IS THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS SOMEWHAT OF
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THESE AREAS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PRESSURE FALLS AND THE ORIENTATION
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT APPEARS A BIT OF A ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT MAY BE IN PLAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 18Z
TODAY. A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE MAXIMUM WAS
DEPICTED IN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE RAP MODEL AND
WITH GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING 15+ KT WINDS ALREADY IN
PLACE...THOUGHT GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 30 MPH WAS VALID.
THERE STILL EXISTS A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AS SOME SEE BREEZE
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES WITH
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING DOESNT BODE WELL FOR THUNDER
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. WENT
AHEAD AND LEFT ISO TRW IN JUST IN CASE BUT BASICALLY...THE ONLY
REASON ITS BEING MENTIONED IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO OTHER POP IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEP AND STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PARK ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AND MEANDER AROUND THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS ATTEMPTING TO
ADVERTISE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE ABANDONED
THAT THINKING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE AREA.
WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND MOISTURE DECREASING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING DEL
RIO...WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ASSUMING
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY.
PWAT VALUES IN THE LONG RANGE GFS BOUNCE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING GETTING PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WITH POPS ABSENT
FROM THE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND RH VALUES DECREASING
PROGRESSIVELY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SKEDADDLE...A FOCUS ON HOW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR
THE LATTER PART OF JULY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 73 92 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 72 93 / 0 - 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 71 90 72 94 / 0 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 74 93 75 96 / 0 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 90 73 93 / 0 - - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 91 72 94 / 0 - - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 74 91 74 92 / 10 - 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 91 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 94 / 0 - - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WHICH DIFFER ON
HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS IN SE WV MAKE IT. THE HRRR KEEPS IT
STREAMING EAST TO LYH BY 08Z...WHILE THE RAP DRIES IT OUT. WITH
NIGHTTIME WESTERLY FLOW SOMETIMES CAN SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT
INTO THE FOOTHILLS SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT NEAR
LYH.
NO OTHER CHANGES...BUT ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES UNDER UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER GA...PUT
A LID ON CONVECTION IN OUR CWA TODAY. CONVECTION TRIED TO CREEP
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT WOULD DIMINISH AS SOON AS IT TRIED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE AGAIN AT THIS HOUR...CONVECTION
CREEPING INTO TAZEWELL AND SMYTH...AND SHOWING SIGNS OF
DIMINISHING AS IT DOES SO. HRRR DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AND NEITHER DO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD FRI AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WSW. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR
DESTINED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT AND DRIFT ESE...AND COULD
REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THUS...TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THAT THINKING AND CURRENT CONVECTION...HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS...TO MAINLY CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...TAPERING
TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FIRING CONVECTION AND
LATEST AREA RADARS SHOW A LINE OF STORMS ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP.
INSTABILITY IS MODEST BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECENT AND THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRIMARILY FOR WIND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH A WESTERN TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND AND A LOT
OF FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY DO NOT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WILL
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SO HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WEST BUT POPS WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS SUMMER...THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
CLEAR THE REGION AND REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
INDICATIONS FOR ACTIVITY TO INITIATE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT AND THEN SLIDE EASTWARD. THUS...RATHER THAN BLANKETING THE
WHOLE AREA WITH POPS WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND HAVE A
SLICE OF HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE MIDSECTION WITH LOWER POPS NORTH
AND SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST SO HEAVY RAINERS
LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
WITH NO PUSH TO THE FRONT THERE WILL BE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MIDDLE 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY WITH LOWER 90S EAST TO LOW/MID 80S
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN A WAVE TO THE SE AND ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED MCS TYPE FEATURE TO THE NW UNDER
AN UPPER WAVE. PROGGED LIFT/CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK ESPCLY GIVEN LOSS OF
HEATING UNTIL THE FEATURE TO THE NW ARRIVES...PERHAPS OVER THE NW BY
DAYBREAK PER LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND NAM. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXCEPT RAMPING UP OVER THE FAR
NW TO HIGH CHANCE LATE.
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY THEN TRAVERSE THE NORTH/NE SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND ACT AS A WAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE STILL IFFY BUT
MAY ACTUALLY REDUCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ELSW GIVEN LIKELY SURROUNDING
LIGHTER SHRA EARLY ON AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS PUTS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
THIRD WITH LOW CHANCES SOUTH PENDING TRACK OF THE POSSIBLE COMPLEX.
OTRW THINKING MORE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS BELOW MOS AS MANY MAY STAY IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH BUMPING CLOSER TO
THE UPPER 80S.
SHOULD SEE A LULL SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE
WAVE TO THE EAST SO GOING PC WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED POPS OVERALL. NEXT
WAVE TO THE NW WILL START TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK TO THE NE AS A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST UNDER A
PASSING SHEAR AXIS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A QUICK RETURN IN
HIGHER PWATS SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY AND A FEW SHRA/TSRA BANDS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. OTRW
HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH LOWS REMAINING ON THE WARM/MUGGY
SIDE...MAINLY MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT EASTERN 5H TROUGH WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES RETROGRADES
WESTWARD AND EXPANDS ALLOWING INCREASING NW FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD CAUSE THIS
UPPER TROFFINESS TO AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
MODELS REMAIN DIFFERENT IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH
THE GFS THE WETTEST IN KEEPING A SURFACE FRONT OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION...WHILE THE EARLIER ECMWF A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST CMC...APPEARS THE WETTER SCENARIO LIKELY BEST AT THIS POINT.
THUS PLAN TO KEEP DAILY POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE FAR WEST MONDAY WITH APPROACH
OF THE FRONT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST TUESDAY PER THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY AND PERHAPS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SPILLING SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE
INCLUDING SOME SPOTTY LIKELY POPS OTRW MID/HIGH CHANCES OVERALL.
SHOTGUN TYPE CHANCE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PENDING LOCATION
OF THE FRONT AND OLD OUTFLOW...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTRW MOSTLY PC...WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EXCEPT PERHAPS WARMER PIEDMONT WHERE LOW 90S
POSSIBLE ESPCLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THROUGH THE MORNING A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT LWB/BLF...POSSIBLY
HITTING ROANOKE BUT OVERALL CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR.
WITH SOME BREAKS AFTER THE RAIN...FOG POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER
LWB/BLF...THOUGH THINK IT WILL BE LIMITED TO IFR AT TIMES.
MODELS TODAY WORK AN BAND OF STORMS FROM ERN KY INTO SRN
VA...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE IT EXACTLY LINES UP.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TAKES THE HIGHER THREAT FROM BLF-BCB/DAN.
CONFIDENCE THIS EARLY IS THAT AT LEAST VCTS WILL BE OBSERVED NEAR
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS LYH. WILL NOT THROW ANY TEMPO GROUPS
THIS FAR OUT...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
SIGMETS AND RADAR/TAF TRENDS LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE VFR.
THE CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH VFR
EXPECTED...THOUGH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS AT AIRPORTS THAT GET
RAIN LATER TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER RESIDUAL AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO AREAS NORTH OF LYH/ROA BY 12Z SAT. THIS
COULD HINDER FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE AT LWB...AND POSSIBLY
BCB.
OUTFLOW INTERACTING WITH RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER...WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS AT TIMES...EXCEPT IF ANY HEAVIER
RAIN MOVES ACROSS.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS MONDAY...BUT TIMING OF
SUCH SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE EVENTS THIS FAR OUT IS NOT PRACTICAL.
BEST TO SAY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDING SQUARELY OVER THE CWA MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING LWB/BCB/LYH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE HINTON WEST VA NOAA WEATHER RADIO...BROADCASTING ON A
FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MHZ...REMAINS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS HAVE
BEEN NOTIFIED AND A TECHNICIAN IS IN ROUTE TO THE SITE AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RESTORATION OF SERVICE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADA PROVINCES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER
IOWA...ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE 09.12Z NAM AND 09.15Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION DEVELOPING AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH 5000 FEET TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 07Z
FRIDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF FIRST IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER DPROG/DT. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM
INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE PERIOD AND EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY OUT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW PV
ADVECTION/LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
IMPULSE AND FOCUS THE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT...PER DPROG/DT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WITH
THE IMPULSE TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS/IMPULSE WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AT ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION.
SUNDAY...IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IMPULSE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE IMPULSE PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEN...THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE...WHERE THE 09.12Z GFS BREAKS
DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND THE
09.12Z ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DECENT LIFT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW AND SURFACE FRONT/LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ON AND
OFF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
BACKED OFF ON VALLEY FOG AT KLSE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST VAD
WIND PROFILE FROM THE RADAR SEEMS TO CONFIRM EARLIER FORECAST
GUIDANCE...SHOWING WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KTS AT 2000
FT AGL. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED WINDS FROM THIS LEVEL
EXTENDING DOWNWARD TO THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THESE
STRONGER WINDS...COMBINED WITH A 10.04Z KLSE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 8 DEGREES SHOULD LIMIT EXTENSIVE FOG FORMATION. AS A RESULT...
WILL CONFINE LOWER MVFR VISIBILITY/IFR CEILINGS TO A TWO-HOUR
TEMPO GROUP FROM 10.11Z TO 10.13Z...ALTHOUGH THIS STILL MAY BE TOO
BULLISH. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KLSE/KRST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
540 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST WYO. EXPECT THAT SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS AM. LLVL MOISTURE IS MODEST...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG PER THE LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS FROM SPC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 03Z...AT
WHICH POINT THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHUT THINGS OFF. DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE ANYTHING SEVERE TODAY WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS
IN THE DRIER SFC ENVIRONMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY TO BE FREE OF ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL WEAK MIDLVL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW...BUT H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS FROM
THE GFS/NAM/ECM ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT
THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS SOME LIGHT QPF SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS IN
THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME RECENTLY WITH
THE MOIST LLVL ENVIRONMENT AND SMALL-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...SO
HONESTLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS NEED TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TSTM OR TWO ON THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTN. IT WILL
BE MUCH WARMER ALOFT THOUGH...SO CAPPING WILL PLAY A ROLE. SHOULD BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH H7 TEMPS +14 TO +16 C.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR GIVEN THAT SMALL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF THESE SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE NUMERICAL MODELS TO
DETERMINE WITH GREAT ACCURACY.
BY MID NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATE IN THE WEEK BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...
BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY COOL SHOT OF AIR FOR MID JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER 01Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE MON INTO
TUE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1112 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL WY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING AND OUT OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION
IS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOW
PRODUCING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT LESSER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY
MINIMAL CHANCES INTO THE PLAINS. CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS VERY LOW BUT SHOULD AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING BACK MOST OF
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. ON THE RADAR...WE ARE WATCHING
AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER (MCV). EXPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAINS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SIDNEY
AREA BY DAYBREAK. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE MVC TRANSITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS OF
SOUTHERN ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES BY
LATE MORNING AS THAT NEXT PIECE OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS OUT THE
EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT BULLISH ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES RUNNING AROUND
2200 J/KG...WHEREAS THE ETA IS LESS SO WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1200
J/KG. CURRENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR TODAY
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. CANT REALLY ARGUE WITH THIS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PEGGING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. FORTUNATELY THE SHEAR PROFILES DON`T
LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY IN THE EASTERN ZONES RUNNING
LESS THAN 50 M2/S2...SO MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY
WOULD BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
MOST OF ANY STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 03Z AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A LARGE DRYSLOT (AS SEEN IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) SLIPS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST SHIFTING THE MAIN TRACK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE ONLY
POPS WE WILL CARRY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT MAY GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INT THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW EVEN THERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES OF +14 TO +16C. GOING TO BE A WARM AFTERNOON SUNDAY
AND WENT MORE WITH THE HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. PROBABLY
COULD HAVE WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS 700MB WINDS ARE STILL
GOING TO BE STRONG. GFS SHOWING 30 TO 35KTS OF WESTERLY
WINDS...SO DO BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FROM DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WESTERLY WINDS STAY UP FOR MONDAY AS WELL. DID GO HIGHER THAN BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE ON MONDAY LOWS AS WELL WITH WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS OF 20-25KTS AT 12Z MONDAY KEEPING A WELL MIXED LOW LAYER.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE WEST
OF CHEYENNE.
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY DRY THE AREA OUT FOR THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR TIMING OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLAR...KCYS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS. BAND OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO
KLAR ALREADY. THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE THE AREA THAT WILL EXPAND LATE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY...THEN A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WINDY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THIS WEEKEND AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE
HIGHER AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN WITH DRY AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS AS FUELS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
510 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING BACK MOST OF
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. ON THE RADAR...WE ARE WATCHING
AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT
MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER (MCV). EXPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAINS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SIDNEY
AREA BY DAYBREAK. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE MVC TRANSITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS OF
SOUTHERN ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES BY
LATE MORNING AS THAT NEXT PIECE OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS OUT THE
EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT BULLISH ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES RUNNING AROUND
2200 J/KG...WHEREAS THE ETA IS LESS SO WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1200
J/KG. CURRENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR TODAY
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. CANT REALLY ARGUE WITH THIS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PEGGING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. FORTUNATELY THE SHEAR PROFILES DON`T
LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY IN THE EASTERN ZONES RUNNING
LESS THAN 50 M2/S2...SO MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY
WOULD BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
MOST OF ANY STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 03Z AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A LARGE DRYSLOT (AS SEEN IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) SLIPS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST SHIFTING THE MAIN TRACK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE ONLY
POPS WE WILL CARRY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT MAY GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INT THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW EVEN THERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES OF +14 TO +16C. GOING TO BE A WARM AFTERNOON SUNDAY
AND WENT MORE WITH THE HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. PROBABLY
COULD HAVE WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS 700MB WINDS ARE STILL
GOING TO BE STRONG. GFS SHOWING 30 TO 35KTS OF WESTERLY
WINDS...SO DO BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FROM DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WESTERLY WINDS STAY UP FOR MONDAY AS WELL. DID GO HIGHER THAN BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE ON MONDAY LOWS AS WELL WITH WESTERLY 850MB
WINDS OF 20-25KTS AT 12Z MONDAY KEEPING A WELL MIXED LOW LAYER.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE WEST
OF CHEYENNE.
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY DRY THE AREA OUT FOR THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR TIMING OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLAR...KCYS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS. BAND OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO
KLAR ALREADY. THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE THE AREA THAT WILL EXPAND LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY...THEN A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WINDY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THIS WEEKEND AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE
HIGHER AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN WITH DRY AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS AS FUELS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NV
THIS EVENING AND THE 00Z NAM/GFS PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL
AND KEEP CONVECTION GOING A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HANGS ONTO IT TIL MORNING ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE
OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FLOW WAS BACKING SLIGHTLY WHICH
WAS ALLOWING STORMS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGINIA RANGE.
LIGHTNING WAS NOTED FROM THE NWS OFFICE TO THE SOUTH AS OF THIS
WRITING. MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING INCLUDE SPREADING THE ISOLATED
CONVECTION WESTWARD JUST A BIT BUT KEEPING IT EAST OF KRNO-KCXP.
WE ALSO KEPT SOME SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT UNTIL 09Z FOR THE BASIN
AND RANGE AND REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FAR NORTH. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS DOWN TO THE SIERRA CREST OF MONO COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR AND NAM ARE FAVORING SOME CHANCES OF A
THUNDERSTORM AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A 15% COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE, ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN PERSHING COUNTY. THEN, DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY ONWARD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVER-CONVECTING MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN MONO COUNTY, BUT MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM; KEPT
CHANCES AROUND 10%. THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ONLY
BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA BY MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. BOYD
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE
PATTERN IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TO START THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA
VALLEYS NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH ALPINE AND
MONO COUNTIES EACH DAY WITH MAINLY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT WILL
KEEP CHANCES BELOW 15% FOR THESE AREAS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP MENTION
OF STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY STILL IS
SIZABLE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC ATTEMPT A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA IN MORE OF A TROUGH PATTERN TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND IN THE GFS WHILE THE EC DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS IS
ALMOST THE REVERSE OF WHAT EACH MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE LAST FEW CYCLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ENSEMBLES SPREADS ARE
LARGE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. FUENTES
AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z MAINLY FOR AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF KNFL, BUT OVERALL AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS
WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. FOR SUNDAY, ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A FALLON-SUSANVILLE LINE BUT THE MAIN
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS
20- 25 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY BTWN 21Z-04Z. TF
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AN UPR HIGH CENTER IS OVR ERN TX TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD OVR TX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MSTR OVR THE
AREA TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVR AND
NR THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TIED TO THE HIGHER TRRN...
INCLUDING THE PALMER DVD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE OUT OVR THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND OVR BACA AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE MSTR WL STILL BE LIMITED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
MONDAY...DURING THE DAY THE NORTHWEST US TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EDGE EAST...AND MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE HAVE LOW END SCATTERED TO ISOLATED POPS GOING AND THAT
SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE CWA...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S
PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S TO 70S MOUNTAINS.
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED SOUTH SOME...AND
THE MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SUBTROPICS WILL STILL BE OVER THE CWA.
SO...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO MONDAYS READINGS.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH BUT IT SHOULD BE CENTERED FAR TO OUR NORTH. STILL...ANOTHER
SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME FORCING ALOFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
SOME TO THE WEST...AND THE ROCKIES WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW AND A
LITTLE MORE SETTLED WEATHER. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY.
OF COURSE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
IMPACT BURN SCARS...SO THAT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
EVEN THE HI-RE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK
WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS
ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE
FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE
EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME
GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS
CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM.
CORRECTED...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA
AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS ARE
PROGGING WINDS AOB 5KT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH A NE DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO BACK WEST BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH THE BEST TIME FOR STORMS AFTER 20Z. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40
ATLANTA 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 40 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 92 71 92 73 / 30 20 30 30
COLUMBUS 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20
GAINESVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 30
MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 20
ROME 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 92 74 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS
BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OF THE REGION, WHERE THE WARM FRONT
HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR AT LEAST
A LITTLE LONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, ALTHOUGH A
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE NOTED AS INSTABILITY WANES AND AS A SHORT
WAVE THAT HELPED TO DRIVE THE STORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY
02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH
THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE
ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD
TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE
RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH
TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED
INTO THU ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST-CENTRAL IL TO SOUTHEAST
IL...WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES AS OF 05Z.
SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE KSPI MAY BE
AFFECTED NEXT FEW HOURS BY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY KPIA-
KBMI-KCMI. THIS FOG WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VSBY THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES
FROM NW. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS
STARTING 00Z FOR POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS BUT
STRONG...GUSTY...VARIABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY
KICKED IN ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING AND TODAY.
MOST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE SLIGHT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...BENDING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE EASTERN
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OBSERVED SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 1PM CDT SPRAWLED OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEND OUTFLOWS AND SOME UPSHEAR LIFT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
CLOSE TO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS FOR PARTS
OF PIKE...WARRICK AND SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IN
COLLABORATION WITH NWS INDIANAPOLIS...DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE IN SPACE AND TIME. IT
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...ADDED A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
GRIDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VERY
ROBUST CAPE FOR UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR
INITIATION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE INVERSION IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND POSSIBLY A MICROBURST OR TWO) WITH THIS
REGIME IN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SUNDAY. THE ONLY
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE ANY DELAY IN REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SURFACE OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LEFT
OVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL EXPAND WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE/SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS DEFINITELY CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE 3KM HRRR FOR THE EXTREMELY SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...BLENDING TOWARD THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE IN THE
LONGER TIME PERIODS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS AND WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF REGARDING ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE AREA...DRIVEN BY
A MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MED RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
TUE. PCPN CHANCES (HIGHEST IN THE SERN QUADRANT) ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FORCING WILL WANE TUE NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW GOES
SLIGHTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC...LEAVING WED DRY. BY MIDDAY THU...A
SECOND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR WEST
(PARTS OF SERN MO) CLOSER TO A DOMINANT SRN CONUS RIDGE. SOME
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MINOR ENERGY IMPULSE
IN THE WESTERLIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS EVENT SHOULD END
THU NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND THE ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE
MARK IN SERN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN 09-13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KEVV/KOWB TSRA
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z AOB 6 KNOTS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN
MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER
MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH
CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR
80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER
THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE
GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.
SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO
SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB
SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC
LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN
AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO
OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K
J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER
VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT
500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST
E AT AROUND 0.25IN/.
BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH THE RETURN OF MORE HUMID LLVL AIR OVER MAINLY WRN UPR MI IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MRNG AT IWD AND CMX. BUT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THE REST
OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE RETURN OF THE MOISTER AIR AND DAYTIME
HEATING WL ALSO CAUSE SOME SHRA AND TS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF
SITES AS EARLY AS MID MRNG AT IWD. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LO ON
PINPOINTING WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHRA WL OCCUR TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN
IFR BRIEFLY UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHRA...THE VFR WX SHOULD
PREDOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL
EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL DRY OUT BY MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
I HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
I EXPUNGED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE I-94 AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS JUST NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. IT SEEMS CLEAR TO ME BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN THE IR
IMAGE LOOPS...RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS...AND RECENT RAP MODEL DATA THE
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MOST WE
WOULD SEE HERE IS SHOWERS FROM A MID CLOUD DECK AND THAT WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...NEARLY ALL OF THAT
WOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. MOSTLY WE WILL BE SEEING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THE STEADIEST
RAINS AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FIRST SHORT WAVE
COMES THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO MOST OF THE
STORMS SHOULD HUG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH INTO SW MI MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE WAVE SLOWLY EXITING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...
EXPECT WE WILL SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF PCPN COVERAGE AS WE GET INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER STILL CAN/T RULE A FEW
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG WITH SOME
SUNSHINE WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS MORE POTENT THEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE MODELS ALSO
SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW BRINGS THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND WE SHOULD THEREFORE
GET WITHIN THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE STORM PATH.
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS STILL
LOOK MARGINAL AS THE JET DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG. SO AT THIS
POINT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED ON MONDAY...AND
MINIMAL CHANCES OTHERWISE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE LESS FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS. THE MAIN RISK APPEARS TO EAST OF HWY 131
WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. A LAKE SHADOW MAY KEEP
AREAS WEST OF HWY 131 DRY ON TUESDAY.
A GOOD CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A SFC HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY DELIVERS A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRY TREND MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BRINGING BACK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR THAN THE ECMWF.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS H8 TEMPS ABOVE 20C
ARRIVING NEXT SATURDAY WHICH MAY SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
LIMITED IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT THERE
SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT WITH CIGS AROUND 10-12K FT.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME MVFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CHICAGO TO
MADISON WI CORRIDOR AT 06Z WILL IMPACT THE KAZO AND KBTL TERMINALS
AFTER 12Z AND LASTING UNTIL 16-18Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SOME VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL
ALSO KICK IN AT KMKG THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING THEN ONCE THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS DONE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
OTHER THEN THE RISK OF STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING...THE LAKE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE
SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THEN...THE
SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES OF RAIN STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL
TOTALS LOCALLY...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. STREAMFLOW REMAINS
HIGH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTION STARTING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHLAND. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ZONES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND STATIONS ARE STARTING TO REPORT
VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONSAS DEW POINTS ARE CREEPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND.
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER
06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION
MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY
HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND
WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF
THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY
PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE
AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS THE PERIOD
WEARS ON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD
TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
QUITE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE KBRD
AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NE MINNESOTA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SOME FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 79 62 72 / 70 50 40 30
INL 64 83 62 77 / 40 50 40 20
BRD 65 87 65 80 / 70 40 40 40
HYR 66 82 61 75 / 60 50 50 20
ASX 63 80 58 71 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND.
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER
06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION
MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY
HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND
WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF
THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY
PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE
AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS THE PERIOD
WEARS ON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD
TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN THIS
PATTERN. THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
QUITE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE KBRD
AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NE MINNESOTA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SOME FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 79 62 72 / 70 50 40 30
INL 64 83 62 77 / 40 50 40 20
BRD 65 87 65 80 / 70 40 40 40
HYR 66 82 61 75 / 60 50 50 20
ASX 63 80 58 71 / 60 50 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW-
MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD
ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S
WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON
TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE
VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY
WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A
BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA
INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST
FRINGES OR OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF
+12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDENSDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION.
I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF
THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS
SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN
CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY
GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL
COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE
COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST
COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A
REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT
THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS LIKELY SLID SOUTH WITH THE COLD POOL GENERATED
BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS HAVE SAGGED SOUTH AND WEST INTO
NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVE. TREND IS A SLOW
SHRINKING AND THERE IS AND LESS REDEVELPMENT NEAR THE IOWA
BORDER. ONCE THIS ENDS LITTLE EXPECTED OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME FOG
IN QUINCY. MODELS PUSH FRONT FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY AND IF THIS
HOLDS STORMS SUNDAY SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: STORMS TOO CLOSE SO WILL PUT IN A TEMPO FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. TREND HAS THE AREA SHRINKING AND DYING SO IT WILL
BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES
MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-
ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
350 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF
MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT
SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE
STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS
FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH
DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
IN BETWEEN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN
ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND
TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE
WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE
FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE
THE MOST INACTIVE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT
BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND
SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE
RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH.
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT
REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A
WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO
MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST.
THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE
THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE
ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF
WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME
DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO
THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY
BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE
MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E
FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO
DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END
OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-SHRA/TSRA LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY -TSRA OR TWO OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN VERY SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN...
SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR
15KTS...AND FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 87 59 88 60 / 50 30 20 20
DULCE........................... 79 51 80 50 / 30 30 30 30
CUBA............................ 79 52 79 53 / 50 30 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 81 52 83 54 / 50 40 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 77 50 80 52 / 70 40 50 30
GRANTS.......................... 80 52 83 54 / 60 30 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 79 54 80 55 / 70 30 50 30
GLENWOOD........................ 86 56 87 57 / 50 30 30 30
CHAMA........................... 77 49 78 48 / 40 30 40 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 59 82 59 / 50 30 40 30
PECOS........................... 81 57 82 57 / 30 30 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 53 76 52 / 40 30 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 70 43 68 43 / 40 40 50 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 49 71 49 / 40 40 50 40
TAOS............................ 81 52 82 52 / 20 30 30 30
MORA............................ 78 54 78 53 / 40 30 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 86 56 88 57 / 20 30 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 82 58 85 60 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 57 88 59 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 63 88 65 / 30 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 65 90 67 / 30 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 92 65 / 30 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 62 91 66 / 30 20 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 89 62 90 65 / 30 20 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 64 91 65 / 30 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 89 63 90 63 / 30 20 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 58 85 59 / 40 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 85 59 87 60 / 40 30 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 54 87 54 / 30 20 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 58 85 58 / 40 20 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 58 84 60 / 30 20 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 89 63 / 30 20 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 79 60 81 59 / 40 20 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 86 59 86 58 / 10 20 10 20
RATON........................... 88 57 88 56 / 5 20 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 88 58 88 58 / 5 20 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 56 84 55 / 20 20 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 95 65 95 63 / 0 10 5 10
ROY............................. 88 62 89 61 / 5 10 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 96 67 98 67 / 5 10 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 66 95 66 / 10 10 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 68 100 68 / 0 5 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 93 65 96 66 / 0 5 0 5
PORTALES........................ 94 66 96 66 / 0 5 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 67 96 67 / 5 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 97 67 100 67 / 0 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 89 62 91 62 / 20 10 10 5
ELK............................. 82 60 85 60 / 20 10 20 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-SHRA/TSRA LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY -TSRA OR TWO OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN VERY SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN...
SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR
15KTS...AND FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON...
FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS AND SHUTS DOWN CHANCES THERE. A WARMING TREND IS
UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW...AND HOLD AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SHIFT
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ONLY THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON
RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MONSOON MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS. TODAY`S ROUND OF STORMS FAVORS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WHERE SHEAR IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THE CURRENT CROP OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SOCORRO...
BELEN AND ALBUQUERQUE. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO
BETWEEN 23-01Z. LOOKING MORE LIKE A GOOD BET HERE IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO WITH A LAST LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT
3 PM MDT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DIFFERENT THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH...
CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES...
MAINLY EAST...AND A FOCUSING OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING-IN. SO...EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SLOWER
MOTION TO TILT THE THREAT TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MUCH
LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE.
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND BACK DOWN MON/TUE AS THE UPPER HIGH BACKS
OFF TO THE EAST A BIT...ALLOWING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
TILT BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA...
LEAVING-OUT ONLY THE SOUTHEAST IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK-WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT THE IDEAL PLUME POSITIONING WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUR FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD CLIMO FOR FRI/SAT.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DOWN TREND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...WITH
LESS ACTIVITY EAST CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
BIT...FINALLY REACHING ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...WHILE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. HAINES
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...WITH AREAS OF 5 TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. VENTILATION TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF
POOR TO FAIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING A FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON SURGE FROM MEXICO INTO NEW
MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAVORED THE WEST. RH
RECOVERIES TODAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES.
AS THE UPPER CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE PLUME WILL BE
NUDGED TO THE WEST AS WELL SUCH THAT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE WETTING
RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THERE ON MONDAY
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY
COULD ALSO HELP EXTEND THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH COULD WEAKEN/FLATTEN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOME ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MONSOON PLUME COULD REPOSITION OVER NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
231 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST
LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
A A QUICK GLANCE AT THE CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN MCS IS STILL WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION SO I SLIGHTLY REDUCED OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS
FORECASTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR
MASS TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SO I
CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY... MILD MID-JULY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH
OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR
THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP
INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING
HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED
500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO
WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS
SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM
SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY
TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE
GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800
AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE
DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV
4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND
SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL
FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO
THE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION
OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING
CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF EARLIER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER CANADA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND LAST EVENING. EXPECTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM 13Z-15Z SUNDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND 00Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTING TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOCALLY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN
FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER.
00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST
LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
A A QUICK GLANCE AT THE CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN MCS IS STILL WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION SO I SLIGHTLY REDUCED OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS
FORECASTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR
MASS TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SO I
CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY... MILD MID-JULY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH
OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR
THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP
INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING
HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED
500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO
WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS
SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM
SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY
TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE
GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800
AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE
DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV
4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND
SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL
FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO
THE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION
OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING
CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECK REMAININ IN PLACE. WITH CLOUD COVER NOT
FORECASTING FOG FORMATION AT TAF SITES. WEAK FRONT TO NORTH
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN ONTARIO SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. LATEST DATA CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHEAST NY AND VERMONT CANADIAN BORDER
OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT TAF SITES DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES KSLK/KMPV,
HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW OF HITTING INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE AND
IN OUTER PERIOD OF TAF CYCLE SO OPTED TO KEEP THEM OUT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN
FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK.
12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER.
00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ALL SITES VFR EXCEPT KDVL...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE SOME VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO THE STORM WHICH WILL BE DONE BY 07Z OR SO. SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...BUT WHICH TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND WILL AMEND FOR VCTS IF NEEDED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO A MORE CONVECTIVE INDUCING ENVIRONMENT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS THE MID SUMMER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS.
THE FIRST FEATURE TO TRACK TODAY IS AN AXIS DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEATURE CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL IN
THE HRRR INITIALIZATION WHICH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND...SO HAVE BUMPED
UP THE POPS TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING AS
IT ENTERS THE CWA...BUT THIS OLDER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE
OF A FACTOR ALONG THE TUG FORK VALLEY AND WEST. THE BETTER FORCING
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL SEE SORT OF A
SQUEEZE PLAY SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. MAY NOT SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY FOR THE KANAWHA VALLEY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG A BAROCLINIC
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO A NIGHT TIME MCS. STEERING FLOWS TRY TO TAKE THIS FURTHER TO
OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...BUT LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFTERNOON MAY DISRUPT THE
SYNOPTIC SETTING TONIGHT. SPC CARRIES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER
FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY
QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO
ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY
PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL
AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS
THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH
HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELIEF IS THAT PKB AND HTS WILL GET INTO TOO MUCH OF THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OFF THE MCS TO THE NORTHWEST TO GET INTO ANYTHING
LOWER THAN MVFR MIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HAVE
CRW...CKB...AND EKN AT IFR OR WORSE.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY
MAY VARY TONIGHT. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT.
ONLY THUNDERSTORM ACTION IN BOX IS NORTH OF BISMARCK ND WITH A
LONE SUPERCELL ALONG THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IS
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT 800 MB...WITH A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE. IN
FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURPRISINGLY LOW...ONLY 1.13
INCHES. WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MOST OF THE CU FIELD
IS GONE...AND ANYTHING TRYING TO GET GOING IS DYING QUICK. STILL
CANT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE EAST OF
MOBRIDGE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST AT OR AFTER SUNSET...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET DOES GET GOING AFTER 03Z...BUT ITS BRIEF BEFORE
TURNING SW AND STRONGEST FARTHER EAST NEAR THE MN BORDER. THE WATCH
WILL CONTINUE BUT IF NOTHING IS GOING BY 03Z...MAY HAVE TO CANCEL
IT. MINOR UPDATES MADE TO GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 700MB
READINGS ARE IN THE +8 TO +11C RANGE...WITH WARMEST READINGS OVERTOP
THE DRY LINE BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70F...ENOUGH TO GENERATE OVER
4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WINDS THROUGH THE PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SPC SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. POOR OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STEMS FORM THE LACK OF ANY UPPER WAVE...AND A LACK OF
CONVECTION BEING GENERATED IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE WITH ONLY THE MOST
RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR DEPICTING ANY STORMS. BEST
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK
THE CAP...WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE WAVE IS EVIDENT FOR SUNDAY. THE DRY LINE WILL
ALSO BE PUSHED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...SO TEMPERATURES COULD MAX OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 100. WILL LEAVE HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE IN PLACE.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT FETCH OUT OF THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE
REGION AND MORE SMOKE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON STORM MONDAY THANKS
TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF
S/W ENERGY AS A DECENT JET DIGS A TROF INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRETTY DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME DRYNESS AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING KATY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SEVERE CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME
CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z
NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST
CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE
MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN
PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR
NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES
ACROSS TONIGHT.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO
SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC
WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP
FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE
MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX
COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS.
THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN.
THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP
THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE
30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS OF 12.0430Z...IFR STRATUS DECK NOW
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN IL EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...IMPACTING KLSE/KRST BY 12.08Z TO
12.10Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE
MVFR RANGE WITH MIST. SUB 1 SM VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN FOG...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 12.06Z TAFS. MULTIPLE UPDATES
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS/MIST/FOG EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP 1000
TO 1200 FT AGL BKN LAYER IN PLACE UNTIL 12.17Z TO 12.18Z. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW ON TIMING...
SO WILL BEGIN BY INTRODUCING VCTS/BKN035CB FROM 13.03Z AT KRST TO
13.04Z AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MINOR COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
CHARACTERIZED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ARC OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO
NWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA...THEN NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE...
DARKENING FEATURE OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REPRESENTS A VORT MAX
THAT VARIOUS 12/00Z MODELS MOVE NWD ADJACENT THE ERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY.
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX
THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT...AND A FAVORABLE
GENERALLY SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THE CHANCES FOR WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF SHOWER/TSTMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY VERSUS
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR AROUND 16Z-
17Z TODAY EITHER NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE
COUNTY...OR FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS
ACROSS SWRN COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
THEN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE NWWD AND ENCROACH UPON THE TUCSON METRO
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT ANY RATE...POPS WERE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED MODESTLY FROM TUCSON
EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING.
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF
TUCSON BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST
TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON NWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS...PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED DATA
WEATHER FIELDS FROM 12/21Z TO 13/03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD.
A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF SHOWER-AND-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR MON-WED MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WEAK SWLY MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRI WILL HAVE
SIMILAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS WEDNESDAY.
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS BY FRI
THOUGH APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY SAT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS FORECAST AREA FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
DOLORES. THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND FURTHER WWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS...AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE NEXT SAT. IF THERE IS CONTINUED
CONTINUITY AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS WILL LIKELY
BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT. AS AN ASIDE...SUN IS BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAS RESULTED IN
DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THRU THURSDAY...THEN SOME MINOR COOLING IS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENHANCED NWD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALIZED.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF KTUS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND
35-45 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY GENERATE BLDU/S REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1SM NW OF KTUS BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/03Z. CLOUD DECKS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 6-12K FT
AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
EVEN THE HI-RE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK
WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS
ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE
FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE
EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME
GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS
CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM.
CORRECTED...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA
AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH FROM THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL NOT UPGRADE THE PROB GROUP TO A TEMPO AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
5KT OR BELOW. THE DIRECTION MAY SWITCH TO THE NE FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAWN...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE WEST DURING MIXING MONDAY
MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40
ATLANTA 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 40 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 92 71 92 73 / 30 20 30 30
COLUMBUS 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20
GAINESVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 30
MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 20
ROME 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 92 74 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1153 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 IN MANY SPOTS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY. WARM...HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A FEW DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1150 AM...CU ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
CONTINUED HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THROUGH SW
MAINE...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
EAST THROUGH THE MID-COAST. UPDATED GRIDS FOR MOST RECENT OBS AND
TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHC AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTM.
840 AM...CURRENT SATL PIC AND RADAR SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK
CONVECTION ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE AS BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THAT AREA
TODAY. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS AND HAVE RAISED
MORNING HOURLY TEMPS AT BIT WHICH SHOULD RISE QUICKLY-- ALTHOUGH
HAVEN`T CHANGED MAXES FOR DAY.
640 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST 10Z MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS.
PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NWS DOPPLER RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...A WARM OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PRECEDE THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH WITH MANY
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWST MAINE FLIRTING
WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH
WITH DRIER LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE ZONES...WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RELEGATED TO A
HUMID AIRMASS. R OR TSTM IN SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASING MAKING FOR A STICK NIGHT.
OVERALL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S SOUTH TO 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND LAKES REGION NORTHWARD TO VICINITY OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AN ONSHORE WIND WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND COULD
FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN AS HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN FEATURES A DECENT TROUGH ROTATING EWD AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WED BUT WILL ALSO BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DEFINITELY
LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BENEATH MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WILL SEE FLOW BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE
ONSHORE AS TROUGH APPROACHES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHRA BUT
MORE LIKELY WILL SE STRATUS/FOG AND EVEN SOME DZ MOVE ONSHORE MON
NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUE MORNING. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MID-UPPER
FLOW SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SW...AND THE THREAT FOR TSRA WILL
INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA...DESPITE THE PAUCITY OF
QPF IN THE 00Z EURO. HIGHS TUE WILL REACH 80-85 INLAND...BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE STUCK IN THE 70S COASTAL AREAS....AND DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FROPA COULD GET BACK INTO THE 80S ON WED.
THE LESS HUMID AIR MOVES IN FOR THU AND FRI...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. GFS WANT TO BRING
PRECIP IN BY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE EURO IS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NIGHT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT LOCAL IFR VCNTY OF KLEB AND KHIE IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. WIDELY SCT MVFR TODAY AND MONDAY IN
-SHRA AND -TSRA.
LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO COASTAL
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AT LEAST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE NIGHT INTO WED COULD BRING SHORT
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR....WITH VFR WED NIGHT INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BLO SCA LVLS MON NIGHT THRU
THU. SOME SWELL FORM OFFSHORE SYSTEM COULD PUSH SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
605 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
605 AM UPDATE...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITED MAINE WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR AND ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES...BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANY SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE SOME LIFT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL SETTLE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WITH A GUSTY
WIND. DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
SLOWER TO FALL ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND COULD COME CLOSE TO 90F
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. MUCH COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE TONIGHT
AS A SFC HIGH BUILD OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS LOWS
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE MID
50S IN THE BANGOR AREA UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, WARM
FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY AND MUGGY NIGHT; MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH JUST A BIT COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL EVENING. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY; SB CAPES WILL RUN 200-600 J/KG, ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE OWING TO STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.
NORTHERN MAINE WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, TAKING THE FRONT AND THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS RIDGE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE
SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED, WHICH RESULTED IN CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND FOR SATURDAY. DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS EITHER, WHICH GAVE HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH/80S
SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY SHALLOW
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KPQI AND KHUL TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTED THAT
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY IN FOG.
BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR IN FOG TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE; MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RESUMES MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89
DEGREES AT BANGOR TODAY. IF THE TEMPERATURE WERE TO HIT 90 DEGREES
IT WOULD BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY AT BANGOR SINCE JULY 19, 2013.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT VERY
SLOWLY CREEPS NE THRU PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TVC OB RECENTLY AND THE FKS OB EARLIER
THIS MORNING...HAVE SEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. SUSPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE
GROUND WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" RETURNS (IF YOU CAN CALL THEM THAT).
OVERALL...CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL FITTING THE BILL FOR
THIS AREA OF DIMINISHING PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BOOSTS CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG
AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT/
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE
FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF
1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS
MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR
THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS
THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW
STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES
UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN
FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED.
THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER
(REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE.
BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...
SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND.
PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN
STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT.
BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS
ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40
DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST
FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS
SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING
FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS.
TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E
AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF
THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION
IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT
SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD
DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO
GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO
KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION
WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE.
(7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV
THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS
PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC
DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY
BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
(7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS
PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK
THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC
TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY
TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE REGION.
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TVC TERMINAL SITE
THROUGH 15Z WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. TONIGHT...LARGELY VFR PERSISTS
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS...LIGHT AND FLOPPY THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TO LAKE BREEZES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.
WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY
MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH
CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT
IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
803 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN
MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER
MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH
CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR
80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER
THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE
GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.
SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO
SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB
SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC
LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN
AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO
OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K
J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER
VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT
500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST
E AT AROUND 0.25IN/.
BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE RETURN OF
THE MOISTER AIR AND DAYTIME HEATING WILLCAUSE SOME SHRA AND TS TO
DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF SITES AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MRNG AT
IWD. SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON PINPOINTING
WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN
IFR BRIEFLY UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHRA OR TSRA...THE VFR WX
SHOULD PREDOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL
EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE
FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF
1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS
MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR
THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS
THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW
STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES
UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN
FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED.
THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER
(REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE.
BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...
SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND.
PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN
STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT.
BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS
ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40
DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST
FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS
SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING
FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS.
TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E
AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF
THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION
IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT
SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD
DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO
GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO
KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION
WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE.
(7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV
THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS
PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC
DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY
BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
(7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS
PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK
THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC
TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY
TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE REGION.
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TVC TERMINAL SITE
THROUGH 15Z WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. TONIGHT...LARGELY VFR PERSISTS
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS...LIGHT AND FLOPPY THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TO LAKE BREEZES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.
WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY
MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH
CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT
IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW-
MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD
ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S
WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON
TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE
VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY
WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A
BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA
INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST
FRINGES OR OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF
+12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDENSDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION.
I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF
THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS
SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN
CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY
GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL
COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE
COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST
COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A
REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT
THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
BROWNING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES
MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-
ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PUSHES EAST...FOLLOWING
THE LATEST NAM. THE GFS HAS A DRIER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
EXCEPT FOR JUST THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT YET HAVE
BACKING FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TWEAK
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING
WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS SOLID. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT
THE FORT PECK DAM HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT IT TO ONLY GO UP FROM THERE TO EXCEED 20 MPH. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF
MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT
SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE
STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS
FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH
DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
IN BETWEEN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN
ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND
TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE
WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO THE EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ALONG
WEST COAST HOLDING PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO. SCT TO NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z WRN AND NRN HIGHER TERRAIN
THEN TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NE HIGHLANDS PRIOR TO
13/00Z. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA.
ISOLD STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV
TO THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. EAST CENTRAL/SE NM TO BE RELATIVELY
STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS CORRECT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE
FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE
THE MOST INACTIVE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT
BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND
SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE
RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH.
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT
REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A
WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO
MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST.
THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE
THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE
ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF
WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME
DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO
THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY
BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE
MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E
FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO
DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END
OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
CONVECTION CLOSE TO EXITING THE FAR EAST AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. PULLED POPS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
KTVF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
THINK STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE KBJI AREA SO KEPT A
MENTION OUT FROM THERE. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL GET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A FEW MODELS SHOW
STORMS FIRING IN SOUTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR KFAR.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CIGS
VFR IN THE 6000-10000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER RANGE. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE
EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
KTVF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
THINK STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE KBJI AREA SO KEPT A
MENTION OUT FROM THERE. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL GET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A FEW MODELS SHOW
STORMS FIRING IN SOUTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR KFAR.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CIGS
VFR IN THE 6000-10000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER RANGE. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE
EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
649 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
DECAYING MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. NORTHERN PORTION
SHOULD FALL APART FAIRLY QUICKLY AND IS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD TOP
WARMING...BUT KEEP POPS COMING INTO THE TRI STATE AND SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN PRODUCING INITIATION BOUNDARIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OUTFLOWS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO A MORE CONVECTIVE INDUCING ENVIRONMENT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS THE MID SUMMER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS.
THE FIRST FEATURE TO TRACK TODAY IS AN AXIS DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEATURE CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL IN
THE HRRR INITIALIZATION WHICH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND...SO HAVE BUMPED
UP THE POPS TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING AS
IT ENTERS THE CWA...BUT THIS OLDER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE
OF A FACTOR ALONG THE TUG FORK VALLEY AND WEST. THE BETTER FORCING
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL SEE SORT OF A
SQUEEZE PLAY SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. MAY NOT SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY FOR THE KANAWHA VALLEY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG A BAROCLINIC
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO A NIGHT TIME MCS. STEERING FLOWS TRY TO TAKE THIS FURTHER TO
OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...BUT LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFTERNOON MAY DISRUPT THE
SYNOPTIC SETTING TONIGHT. SPC CARRIES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER
FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY
QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO
ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY
PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL
AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS
THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH
HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG WILL LIFT...BUT HAS HUNG ON DESPITE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN. AFTER THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION CAN
FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL VARY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. TEMPOS AND
AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SEVERE CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME
CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z
NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST
CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE
MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN
PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR
NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES
ACROSS TONIGHT.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO
SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC
WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP
FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE
MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX
COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS.
THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN.
THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP
THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE
30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
A PROBLEMATIC TAF PERIOD. FIRST OFF IS THE LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS
DECK AND AREAS OF BR THAT HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THIS MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK IS IN/UNDER A RATHER STRONG INVERSION NEAR
925MB...WHICH WILL MAKE THE LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTENT AND TOUGH TO
GET RID OF. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WARMING ALOFT AND A
WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA...EXTENDED MVFR CIGS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS THRU THIS MORNING. A
PERIOD OF SCT LOWER CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID AFTERNOON THRU
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST ON THIS
OCCURRING.
A COMPLEX OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING OF THE TSRA COMPLEX ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIER/
STRONGER OF THE TSRA WILL PASS. LEFT BOTH TAF SITES WITH A 4HR
PERIOD OF VCTS/CB CENTERED ON 05-06Z FOR NOW. ONCE THE COMPLEX
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS TRACK/TIMING CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA COMPLEX
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEK...
WILL LIKELY SPREAD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MANY AREAS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN AZ HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OVER EASTERN AZ.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL HAS PROVEN THE MOST ACCURATE SO
FAR...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON FORECAST TO
SPREAD AND DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. THE HRRR DOES
RESPOND TO THIS CONVECTION BY FORECASTING A DISTINCT NORTHWESTWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...20 PERHAPS 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS...TO MOVE THROUGH CASA GRANDE AND COOLIDGE
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM...AND INTO THE PHOENIX EAST VALLEY BY 8 PM. AREAS
OF DUST ARE POSSIBLE. THE HRRR ONLY PRODUCES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING...WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY...INCLUDING PHOENIX.
AS A RESULT OF THIS EVENING PASSING OUTFLOWS...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE A
MUCH MORE HUMID DAY. IT MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MONDAY TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND LESS HUMID OVER OUR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA
AND SOUTWHEST AZ TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STILL RELATED TO THE POSITIONAL
WEST COAST TROF AND ITS INLAND MOVING DISTURBANCES...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE THREATS IN EASTERN AZ...GENERALLY EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS PERIOD.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS HURRICANE MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA. ALL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST
CURRENT TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...JUST OFF THE ACAPULCO COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TO MOVE NORTHWEST...STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND
HUG THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA WEST COAST 450 MILES OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD. IT NEVER MAKES LANDFALL...HOWEVER ITS MOISTURE AND
RELATED HIGH PRECIP WATER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...MAXING OUT OVER AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A FIRST
GUESS...MODELED UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ARE NOT IDEAL FOR BIG AND
WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT SAT AND SUN. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTHWEST AZ...SOUTHERN NV...AND SOUTHWEST
UT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
OVERALL WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...HOWEVER
THE DIRECTION HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND. EXPECTING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BEFORE
THAT...THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AZ ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 - 25 KTS TO IMPACT
KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 02Z AND 03Z. LIKELY SOME BLOWING DUST ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE OUTFLOWS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
FAIRLY QUIET AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO RETAIN A DIURNAL WEST-
SOUTHWEST HEADING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO
SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND SETS IN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY BE IN STORE
STARTING FRIDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND RISING HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL BE COMMONLY BREEZY
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MINOR COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY TO SOUTHERLY TODAY
AS EXPECTED. MAJOR FEATURES UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM HAVE FOCUSED A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH QUITE A LONG FETCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN A HEALTHY 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH HIGHER VALUES UPSTREAM IN SONORA. SOLID
DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...SOLAR INSOLATION...AND A
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADD UP TO BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. COULD WE FINALLY
GET AN AFTERNOON WITH ALL OR MOST OF TUCSON METRO IMPACTED? STORM
MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY SLOW A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY A CONCERN...ISOLATED SEVERE.
MINOR FIRST PERIOD FORECAST UPDATES BLENDING IN LATER MODEL DATA
WITH AN END RESULT OF INCREASING PRECIP PROBABILITIES 5 TO 10
PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/18Z. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35-45 KTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY GENERATE
BLDU/S REDUCING VSBYS TO 1SM NW OF KTUS BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/03Z.
CLOUD DECKS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT
6-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL
AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CHARACTERIZED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ARC OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO
NWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA...THEN NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE...
DARKENING FEATURE OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REPRESENTS A VORT MAX
THAT VARIOUS 12/00Z MODELS MOVE NWD ADJACENT THE ERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY.
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX
THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT...AND A FAVORABLE
GENERALLY SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THE CHANCES FOR WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF SHOWER/TSTMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY VERSUS
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR AROUND 16Z-
17Z TODAY EITHER NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE
COUNTY...OR FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS
ACROSS SWRN COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
THEN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE NWWD AND ENCROACH UPON THE TUCSON METRO
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT ANY RATE...POPS WERE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED MODESTLY FROM TUCSON
EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING.
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF
TUCSON BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST
TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON NWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS...PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED DATA
WEATHER FIELDS FROM 12/21Z TO 13/03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD.
A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF SHOWER-AND-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR MON-WED MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WEAK SWLY MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ TSTMS. AT
THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRI WILL HAVE SIMILAR
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS WEDNESDAY.
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS BY FRI
THOUGH APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY SAT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS FORECAST AREA FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
DOLORES. THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND FURTHER WWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. THESE
SOLUTIONS SEEM HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS...AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE NEXT SAT. IF THERE IS CONTINUED
CONTINUITY AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS WILL LIKELY
BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT. AS AN ASIDE...SUN IS BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAS RESULTED IN
DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THRU THURSDAY...THEN SOME MINOR COOLING IS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENHANCED NWD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALIZED.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
938 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE MODIFIED WEATHER FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST
OF NV 447. HRRR AND NAM ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN WE CURRENTLY SHOW...SO WILL
PULL THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT
AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SOON. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AT 25-30 MPH.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT AS THE GFS
INDICATES LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THE GFS SOUNDINGS WERE ALREADY TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AT 06Z (11 PM SATURDAY) SO I HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
THE NAM IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO WORK TOGETHER TO INITIATE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONES. WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE BEST CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF THE SIERRA TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND OUT IN
THE BASIN AND RANGE. EVEN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM IS RATHER ANEMIC
WITH PRECIPITATION SO CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAY
EVEN WIND UP REMAINING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
MONDAY, AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS EVEN MORE SPARSE AS UPPER FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL AND
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY ON TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
AREAS SUCH AS THE MONO-MINERAL-SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY AREA.
ELSEWHERE, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NO
MORE THAN SOME FLAT CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED CONVECTION-WISE.
TUESDAY, THE GFS, NAM AND THE SREF ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION-FREE
CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS MORE
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SNYDER
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS. A FEW BRIEF LATE
DAY TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ON
THURSDAY (THE WARMER DAY) BUT THIS POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS RATHER
SLIM SO WE HAVE NOT YET ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS BY THURSDAY
SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING TOWARD
DEVELOPING A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE
FARTHER EAST. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL INITIALLY BE INCREASING WINDS
AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS WAS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WEST CENTRAL NV, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PRODUCE CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME COOLING MAY REACH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY, BUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THURSDAY DUE TO FULL MIXING AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. COOLING TREND
CONTINUES THRU SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN, BUT AT THIS
TIME WE DID NOT ADD ANY PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST
GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
SAT NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MJD
AVIATION...
FOR TODAY, ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL NV NEAR THE
HWY 95 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MONO COUNTY BTWN 20-04Z, BUT THE MAIN
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. FOR MONDAY, THE THREAT
OF ISOLD LATE DAY TSTMS BECOMES REDUCED TO EASTERN MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES.
FOR BOTH DAYS, SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY
BTWN 22Z-04Z.
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KTRK EACH MORNING MAINLY BTWN
11-15Z, BUT OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPDATED TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
...HOT DAY ON TAP...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EDGING WEST INTO CO
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. THIS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE...AND PROVIDE FOR JUST
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE.
EXPECT A VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT LACKS A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATELY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RIDING UP
ACROSS CO ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
HIGH. GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THIS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...AND ADDED
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT...GRIDS WILL CARRY GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. SFC DEW POINTS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY HIGH YET ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND CAPES AND SHEAR APPEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD POSE
A THREAT TO BURN SCARS.
BETTER RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY IN EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT KEEPS A TAP OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRACKING
OVER THE REGION. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
TUES AFTERNOON...WITH GFS LIFTING IT BACK NORTHWARD INTO NE CO TUES
AFTN...WHILE NAM12 AND ECMWF KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER. SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM RUNS FOR NOW. WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING BACK INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CAPE VALUES TO 1500 TO PERHAPS CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. 0-6 KM SHEARS LOOK ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS
ACROSS EC OR SE CO TUESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...NAM12 AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE DETAILS VS THE DRIER GFS SOLN...WHICH WAS
DISCOUNTED.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SENDS A SHORTWAVE TROF RIDING UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND SERVES TO SEND
SOME DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN CO WED AFTN. THIS DROPS BACK SFC DEW
POINTS AGAIN...WHICH DIMINISHES CAPE AND REDUCES POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DRY OUT THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS COMPARED TO ECMWF. WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD...BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR BURN SCARS
THIS DAY AS THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
AIRMASS DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT RESURGENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME APPEARS TO STAY MAINLY
WEST OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING POPS AGAIN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT SUNDAY. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS
EVENING...BOTH KALS AND KPUB MAY SEE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE VCNTY.
MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WL MOVE THRU THE SERN CO PLAINS AND WL
BRING SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IN NW GA
NEAR REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS THAT MOVED THRU ERN KY AND ERN TN
THIS MORNING. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK
WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWFA.
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS
ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE
FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE
EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME
GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS
CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM.
CORRECTED...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA
AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TO ATL
METRO TAFS FROM 20-23Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
NOT BEEN AS HELPFUL TODAY. SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION
TONIGHT THEN BACK TO WEST COMPONENT 4 TO 8KTS MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 94 73 94 74 / 30 20 30 20
ATLANTA 94 76 91 76 / 40 20 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 50 30 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 93 71 92 73 / 50 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 98 76 94 76 / 20 10 30 20
GAINESVILLE 92 74 91 74 / 40 30 30 20
MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 10 30 20
ROME 93 72 93 74 / 50 20 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 94 73 92 74 / 30 10 30 20
VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 10 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
342 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS ROUGHLY WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS
FIELD...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED JUST UPSTREAM FROM THIS
BOUNDARY. CLOSEST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS STILL IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...BUT SHORT WAVE TROF IS APPROACHING SOUTH DAKOTA
MINNESOTA LINE AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS KEEP MAIN MCS EAST OF
THIS FORECAST AREA BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING A POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE ADVANCING
CONVECTION. IF THESE FORM IT WILL QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. MAIN MCS SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA BY 12 UTC AND FRONT DOESNT REALLY MOVE MUCH BY THEN.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WERE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LEANED
TOWARD A NAM12/ECMWF BLEND FOR TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH DEW
POINTS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE STATE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT...BUT ENOUGH THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT POPS
GOING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLD IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE. SOME MIXING LOOKS TO PUSH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH
TUESDAY...BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY NOT CONCERNED WITH EXTREME HEAT
INDEX VALUES.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE AND BEST CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EXTENDED IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TO PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS AS HIGH AS 4000 METERS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TRENDED DRIER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF TIMING AND LOCATION
OF WHEN AND IF ANY SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WENT WITH LESSER POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. PLUS WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...TRENDED WARMER FOR HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THINKING LESS CLOUD COVER AND MODELS AT LEAST
HINTING ON STRONGER WAA.
&&
.AVIATION...12/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
LINGERING STRATUS AFFECTING KMCW AND KALO WILL DISSIPATE TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HOUR. LATER IN THE PERIOD INTRODUCED MENTION
OF VCTS TO KALO KMCW AND KOTM WITH MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-
WEBSTER.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HARDING
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...HARDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTERED OVER WEST
TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER MOISTURE PLUME HAD WORKED ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS WITH A FEW CUMULUS
RECENTLY NOTED IN HYS/HLC VICINITY NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN LESS IMPRESSIVE
MIXING, AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INHIBITION TO CONVECTION IS LOW THOUGH SO IS
FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS DECENT AND COULD KEEP SOME
ORGANIZATION TO STORMS THAT FORM TO THE WEST. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS
SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE CUMULUS, THOUGH AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY,
ALREADY HAS STORMS BY THIS POINT AND IT HAS BEEN OVERZEALOUS ON
PRECIP IN RECENT DAYS. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A SMALL POP IN THE FAR
WEST AROUND 0Z.
NORTHERN UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST MONDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VARIOUS IDEAS ON LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS, AND MIXING AGAIN IS NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE, LIKELY KEEPING DEWPOINTS RATHER HIGH. HAVE LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A BIT BUT THIS STILL SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIMITED CIN AND, LIKE TODAY, LIMITED FORCING. WITH A MORE DEFINED
BOUNDARY, WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT, WITH AGAIN SOME DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTING MAINLY DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS. HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN, WITH APPARENT TEMPS AROUND 110 LIKELY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. AGAIN EXACT VALUES HARD TO NAIL DOWN
AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN WARNING AREAS COULD BE NEEDED LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MODELS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
+13C PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN
GENERAL THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PERIOD WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
ARE OBVIOUS. THE FORECAST HAS SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE IN THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN KS AND
CENTRAL NEB ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
GOING. THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT
LIFT OR FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO
EASTERN KS FOR SUNDAY SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE CENTER OF THE THERMAL RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITHIN THE
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE EXTENDED SO TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN HOT WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT MAY NOT BE HAS
EXTREME AS WE ARE EXPECTING TOMORROW, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 100 FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH 0Z
BUT SUCH SPEEDS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION. WILL GO AHEAD WITH WIND
SHEAR INCLUSION WITH GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN STRONGER SW WINDS
DEVELOPING NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ012-
024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ012-024-026-038>040-
054>056-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ008>011-020>023-
034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE TO A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
AND MONTANA. A BROAD 1000MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED BELOW THIS UPPER
LOW AND A TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY. TO THE EAST OF THOSE FEATURES AND OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND DEPARTING
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH CONTINUES
TO LEAD TO THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.P....WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING
HAS PRODUCED A CU FIELD OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...WHILE THE LAKE
BREEZE OVER THE EAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN (KISQ ONLY 72 AT 3PM) HAS
STABILIZED THAT AREA AND KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY SUNNY. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH
IS NOW PUSHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THEM TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH EAST
INTO THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER
FORCING. EXPECT THAT TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS IN WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE SEEN A DOWNWARD TREND ON RADAR AND LIGHTNING OVER
THE LAST 15-30MIN. HAVE SEEN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL THEY
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL AND VERY ISOLATED. EXPECT THAT ISOLATED
POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE...INHIBITED BY THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME CAPPING NEAR 725MB. IF
SOMETHING COULD GET GOING WOULD LARGELY EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
THE FORECAST THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING
(ALREADY STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND EAST OF FARGO ALONG
THE WARM FRONT) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THEY WILL BE DISCRETE STORMS
INITIALLY...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THEM TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO AN
MCS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT
LOCATION AND STORM MOTION WOULD MOVE THE STORMS TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND THEN DIVE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY NEAR WESTERN WISCONSIN DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST
POINTING FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE LOCATION OF THE
MUCAPE GRADIENT. WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA...STILL THINK THE AREA WILL SEE THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
COMPLEX...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER OUT WEST). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH THEM
AS THE MAIN COMPLEX SLIDES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL ADD A MENTION OF
STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS
BRUSHING THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW BEHIND THE MCS
THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE STILL WILL BE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION (ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH). WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS...LIKELY TIED TO THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS. THE
POPS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED TONIGHT ONCE THE MCS HAS SHOWN ITS
LOCATION/MOVEMENT...AS IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY...MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET TO 750J/KG
(EXCEPT OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...SO THINK THE THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL KEEP THE CHANCE THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
NAM SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN WENT DRY FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST 12Z THU. THERE IS
ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU THAT MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME WARMER
AIR TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SFC FRONTS WILL
BE IN THE AREA WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
HAVING SOME POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED SEEMS WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE
THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY
KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.
HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
A WEAKENING RIDGE COMBINED WITH AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL KEEP WINDS
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT SPEEDS WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 20KTS. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS WARM...MOIST
AIR IS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS MORNING THE FOG WAS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE...BUT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS EDGED THAT FOG A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. SEVERAL SHIP OBS TODAY INDICATED THE
FOG WAS DENSE AT TIMES...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST AIR...ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG POTENTIAL TO
DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN
MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER
MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH
CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR
80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER
THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE
GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.
SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
NAM SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN WENT DRY FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST 12Z THU. THERE IS
ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU THAT MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME WARMER
AIR TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SFC FRONTS WILL
BE IN THE AREA WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
HAVING SOME POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED SEEMS WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE
THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY
KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.
HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL
EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN
MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER
MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH
CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR
WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR
80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER
THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE
GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI.
SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE
SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO
SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB
SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC
LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN
AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO
OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K
J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER
VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT
500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST
E AT AROUND 0.25IN/.
BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE
THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND
THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY
KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.
HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL
EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
115 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT VERY
SLOWLY CREEPS NE THRU PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TVC OB RECENTLY AND THE FKS OB EARLIER
THIS MORNING...HAVE SEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. SUSPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE
GROUND WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" RETURNS (IF YOU CAN CALL THEM THAT).
OVERALL...CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL FITTING THE BILL FOR
THIS AREA OF DIMINISHING PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BOOSTS CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG
AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT/
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S. ENJOY!
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE
FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF
1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS
MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR
THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS
THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW
STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES
UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN
FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED.
THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER
(REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE.
BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...
SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND.
PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN
STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH.
THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT.
BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS
ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40
DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST
FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS
SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING
FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS.
TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E
AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING
OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF
THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION
IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT
SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD
DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND
CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO
GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO
KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION
WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE.
(7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV
THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS
PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC
DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY
BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
(7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS
PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.
THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK
THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC
TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY
TO START OFF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY FOR TVC AND MBL AS THE NW EDGE OF A
POTENT SHORT WAVE CLIPS THAT AREA. STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE DAY. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE S/SE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY
MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH
CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT
IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SE ND. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SW MN. THE LAST
REMNANTS OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD AND SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL MN N OF THE WARM FRONT AND A COUPLE
COUNTIES W OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ALLOWING
FOR SOME WARMING AND AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
EXPECT SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT AND PERCOLATE IN
THE VCNTY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 06Z. LATEST HRRR IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. SOME STORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS AFTER 08Z
THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. EVEN
THOUGH SOME NICE RAIN WAS NOTED DURING THE DAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
SOME AREAS WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE STORMS IN THE MORNING BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT BEGINS BY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
AND N OF THE LOW TRACK WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKELY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOST DAYS THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY COOL DOWN
TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS MID-WEEK...RETURNING TO THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500MB RIDGE/UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT
AND CAUSE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
RIDGE. ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON LATE TUESDAY. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LOW
LEVELS AND THUS COOLER TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF THE ORIGIN OF THIS
AIR /CANADA/ AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF IT IS MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE REACHING LAND WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
/LOWER DEW POINT/ AIR. HOWEVER...WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
RESULTING IN RISING TEMPS AND DEW POINT VALUES.
LATE IN THE WEEK WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH THE
EXACT DETAILS OF EACH DAY ARE STILL TOUGH TO PIN DOWN.
REGARDLESS...OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY. LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING
MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH A 120KT OR SO JET AT 250MB. THESE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A BETTER ENVIRONMENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. WILL
DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE
HAVE HAD STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MORNING CONVECTION ENDED UP BEING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
TO HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT A FEW SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND FAST MOVING...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. FOLLOWING THESE
STORMS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...WITH IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 64 80 64 71 / 60 40 30 40
INL 61 83 62 78 / 70 40 30 40
BRD 63 85 64 82 / 50 50 40 50
HYR 64 82 63 76 / 60 50 30 30
ASX 61 80 60 69 / 60 40 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
515 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
JUST A SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MO.
COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM IN THIS
AREA, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA WITH CURRENT HEAT INDICES AROUND 102-103
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A WARM MUGGY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH IL LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION AS WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, CAPPING SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE GFS MODEL LOOKS
TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS QPF TONIGHT, WHILE THE NAM MODEL MAY BE TOO
FAR EAST WITH ITS QFF. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST INCLUDE
CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IL, NORTH AND EAST OF STL. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION SHOULD IN THE WEAKENING STAGES AS IT DROPS SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
IT MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT ITS DOMINANCE OVER OUR
REGION WILL WAX AND WANE AT TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DOMINANCE OF THIS UPPER HIGH FADING LATE
MONDAY...AND ROUGHLY CORRESPONDING WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER HIGH`S INFLUENCE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO EXPAND HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND AND THIS
ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHING BACK THRU ON
THURSDAY.
WHEN THE FRONT IS TO OUR NORTH...NAMELY THRU MONDAY AND AGAIN
HEADING INTO LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...DANGEROUS LEVELS OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE A REAL CONCERN AND FOR THE ONGOING
SITUATION...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND WILL COVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY. THIS HANDLES WELL THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. THE POTENTIAL HEAT AND
HUMIDITY EVENT FOR LATE WEEK IS TOO FAR OUT TO DEAL WITH HEADLINES
AT THE MOMENT BUT MERITS A CLOSE WATCH.
DESPITE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
FRONT SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH THRU WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN ON TEMPS BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH OF ONE TO PLACE A
HOLD ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE TEMPS IS LOWER
THAN MONDAY DUE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PCPN
CHANCES FOR SOME AREAS. THE ANTICIPATED DROP IN HUMIDITY FROM
MONDAY WILL MAKE ANY TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF A HEAT ADVISORY ENOUGH IN
DOUBT TO NOT TOUCH HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
PCPN CHANCES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOME SECTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST IL...WHICH WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF WHAT SHOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND SOME AREAS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WHAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD INITIALLY BE
WELL CAPPED BUT THIS CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH ON APPROACH OF THE FRONT
WHERE IT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RIDING BACK NORTH THRU OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS THE SHORT
WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION. FOR OVERNIGHT, HRRR
AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THUDERSTORMS COMPLEX FORMING OVER
UPPER MIDWEST AND DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. WILL THROW OUT THE
OVERLY WET GFS. UIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE, ALBEIT A LOW ONE, SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS GOING. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HRRR AND NAM APPEAR TO BE THE BEST MODELS
WITH THE PRECIPITAION PATTERN, AND THEY KEEP THE RAIN EAST OF STL.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS
CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW-
MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD
ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S
WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON
TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE
VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY
WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A
BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA
INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST
FRINGES OF OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF
+12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION.
I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF
THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS
SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN
CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY
GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL
COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE
COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST
COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A
REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT
THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAKENING MCS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT
UIN, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. SWLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOUD REMAIN SOUTH OF STL IN
THE OZARKS. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL TONIGHT, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST
OF STL. JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE QUITE CAPPED WITH CONVECTION EAST OF STL.
SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...UP
TO 11-13 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS
CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1130 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
1130AM UPDATE...
POPS WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
DECIDED TO PLACE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE ORDER OF A
FEW HUNDREDTHS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A WETTING RAIN
WHERE THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURS. MALIAWCO
930AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PUSHES EAST...FOLLOWING
THE LATEST NAM. THE GFS HAS A DRIER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
EXCEPT FOR JUST THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT YET HAVE
BACKING FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TWEAK
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING
WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS SOLID. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT
THE FORT PECK DAM HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT IT TO ONLY GO UP FROM THERE TO EXCEED 20 MPH. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF
MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT
SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE
STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS
FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH
DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
IN BETWEEN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN
ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND
TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE
WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OUT THERE ARE VERY HOT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REPORTING HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 AT 3 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS
AGAIN MONDAY FOR QUITE A FEW COUNTIES IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND
IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE DOME OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS VARYING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 70S IN OUR WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR EAST. WE ALSO HAVE
THE SPORADIC IOWA AWOS VALUES IN THE LOW 80S. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A TROUGH IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING IN
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE BOUNDARY
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY ONCE AGAIN SO DID HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR MONDAY.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS HOT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE LOWER AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WE CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES WITH
ANY OF THESE WAVES. CONVECTION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE...THEN
SPREAD EAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD AID CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND BRINGING SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES OF TSTMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-
066>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS A RATHER CLASSIC MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN SOMEWHAT THURSDAY
AS DRY AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A RETURN TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR LUBBOCK TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
BOTH 18Z NAM12 AND 20Z HRRR PICKING UP ON PERTURBATION/VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR SE ARIZONA. BOTH MODELS BRING THIS
FEATURE INTO SWRN AND WEST CENTRAL NM AFTER MIDNIGHT...HELPING TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THERE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD MORE EASILY INTO
THE NE AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM THURSDAY...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE DOWN DAY
THERE. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HANGS TOUGH ELSEWHERE.
12Z GFS PROGGING AN INCREASE IN SELY WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH
AND WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DOLORES. THIS INCREASING FLOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND DEEP
CONVECTION OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND SRN ARIZONA. 12Z GFS GOES SO FAR
AS TO DEVELOP A WARM CORE LOW OVER SE AZ/WRN NM THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. SUCH A FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE IN
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO
FAR OUT AT THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF A FEATURE YET TO
DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
SUNDAY COULD BE THE NEXT DOWNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTS TO
RETROGRADE WWD INTO SRN AZ. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION REMAINS
LOW AS 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER SE NM...KEEPING
WRN AND NRN NM ACTIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CROP TODAY IS GREATER IN
NUMBER AND AT LEAST AS VIGOROUS AS WAS THE CASE SAT...MOST TODAY
BEING ACROSS THE WEST TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA AND INTO EAST AZ. NO
MAJOR CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH FCST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TO BE THU TO FRI AND
MAY BE SHORTER IN DURATION THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED THE PAST DAY OR
TWO. LESS INDICATION THAN 12 TO 24 HRS AGO OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT
PUSHING INTO NE NM NEAR MON TO MON NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH IF
CONVECTION DOES RAMP UP IN SE CO THERE STILL WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
A STORM COMPLEX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR NE. IF IT DOES NOT
HAPPEN THEN STORM COVERAGE IN NE NM MAY NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH.
FCST MODELS FOR THE MOST PART CONTINUING TO DELAY...A FEW EVEN
ELIMINATE...THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE STATE...
LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WEST HALF OF NM. NEXT
WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL INDICATED AS
MOVING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE
WELL TO OUR WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH WED...WITH SOME DECREASE POSS THU.
43
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CENTER OF UPPER LVL HIGH REMAINS TO EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER
TROF JUST OFF WEST COAST AND THIS COMBO IS KEEPING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TO N CENTRAL NM. SHRA AND TSRA TO
INCREASE TO SCT OR EVEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AT
LEAST A FEW REACHING THE LOWER TERRAIN AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER TSRA. ISOLD
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO
THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SE AND E
CENTRAL NM DUE TO TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS
CORRECT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 58 85 60 86 / 20 20 20 10
DULCE........................... 50 80 50 79 / 20 20 20 30
CUBA............................ 51 77 53 75 / 30 40 30 40
GALLUP.......................... 52 82 53 81 / 40 40 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 51 78 52 76 / 40 60 30 40
GRANTS.......................... 53 80 54 79 / 30 40 30 50
QUEMADO......................... 55 79 56 78 / 30 40 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 56 86 57 84 / 30 30 30 30
CHAMA........................... 49 73 48 72 / 30 60 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 80 59 79 / 30 50 30 60
PECOS........................... 56 81 57 79 / 30 20 20 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 76 52 75 / 30 40 30 40
RED RIVER....................... 48 69 46 68 / 40 70 40 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 71 51 70 / 40 60 40 70
TAOS............................ 51 80 51 79 / 30 20 20 20
MORA............................ 53 78 53 76 / 30 40 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 57 86 57 84 / 30 10 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 59 82 60 81 / 20 10 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 85 59 84 / 20 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 86 65 86 / 20 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 88 68 88 / 20 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 90 63 90 / 10 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 89 66 88 / 20 5 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 90 61 88 / 20 5 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 89 65 88 / 20 5 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 63 92 63 91 / 20 10 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 83 59 82 / 20 20 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 56 85 56 84 / 20 10 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 86 51 85 / 10 5 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 83 59 83 / 20 10 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 85 59 84 / 20 5 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 89 62 90 / 20 5 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 59 81 59 81 / 20 20 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 59 83 57 82 / 40 20 30 50
RATON........................... 57 86 56 84 / 30 10 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 58 88 57 86 / 30 10 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 83 55 82 / 20 20 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 65 95 63 92 / 20 5 10 20
ROY............................. 62 89 61 88 / 20 5 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 67 98 67 97 / 10 5 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 95 66 94 / 10 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 66 95 65 95 / 20 0 5 5
PORTALES........................ 67 97 67 97 / 20 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 97 67 96 / 20 0 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 99 67 98 / 5 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 62 93 62 92 / 20 5 10 10
ELK............................. 60 85 60 85 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CENTER OF UPPER LVL HIGH REMAINS TO EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER
TROF JUST OFF WEST COAST AND THIS COMBO IS KEEPING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TO N CENTRAL NM. SHRA AND TSRA TO
INCREASE TO SCT OR EVEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AT
LEAST A FEW REACHING THE LOWER TERRAIN AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER TSRA. ISOLD
STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO
THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SE AND E
CENTRAL NM DUE TO TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS
CORRECT.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE
FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE
THE MOST INACTIVE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT
BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND
SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE
RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH.
MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT
REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A
WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO
MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST.
THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE
THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE
ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF
WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME
DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO
THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY
BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE
MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E
FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO
DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END
OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO
AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO FINE TUNE POPS INTO MID AFTERNOON. SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 2 AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA IS IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN WITH THE STRONGER AREA INITIALLY NEAR THE MN/SD/ND
BORDER AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
CONVECTION CLOSE TO EXITING THE FAR EAST AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. PULLED POPS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER.
EXPECT CIGS AT ALL SITES TO BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SFC HEATING...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO BE AROUND 4-6 KFT AS SFC
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...RESULTING IN ABUNDANT LL
MOISTURE FOR LOW BASED CU DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 21Z-02Z TIME FRAME AS BEST DYNAMICS COME
TOGETHER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKES COUNTRY OF MN...AND AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FA...AT A MINIMUM BROUGHT IN VCTS DURING THE PERIOD
MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR CONTINUED SRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WITH
ERRATIC WINDS AND LLWS INVOF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF
NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS
WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A
SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS
THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL
HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF
THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A
TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR
TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP. FOR
MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN H500
SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM LOOKS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER BRINGING MOST OF THE ENERGY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. PREFER THE CONSENSUS FROM GFS/ECMWF. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THIS SHORTWAVE TO BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE CODED
LIKELY POPS FOR BOTH DAYS WITH EACH SYSTEM.
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUES DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING
QUITE HUMID. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LESS NUMEROUS THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LULL
IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS ON FRIDAY.
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD BRING SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATED WIDESPREAD DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
WENT WITH WPC FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO CONTAIN
SOME WIND GUSTS AND INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NEED UPDATES.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOILS REMAIN QUITE WET. WITH THAT IN
MIND...BROUGHT IN IFR FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN WITH
THE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF
NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED SHORTWWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS
WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A
SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS
THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL
HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF
THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A
TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR
TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP. FOR
MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER
FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY
QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO
ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY
PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL
AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS
THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH
HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE
GRADIENTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO CONTAIN
SOME WIND GUSTS AND INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NEED UPDATES.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOILS REMAIN QUITE WET. WITH THAT IN
MIND...BROUGHT IN IFR FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN WITH
THE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAILY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA.
COMPACT S/WV OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO PA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE
ERIE SEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY ESEWD THRU 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO THE LAURELS BTWN 21-00Z. HOWEVER
NEAR/SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR
RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN A NW-SE ZONE FROM ERN OH SEWD
THRU SWRN PA INTO NRN WV/WRN MD/NRN VA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PCPN
TRENDS BEYOND THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BELOW AVG...AND MUCH OF THE CWA
/PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ COULD END UP MAINLY
DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE
CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY...AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWLY
ROTATES NEWD INTO NY STATE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE OVER MT
THIS AFTERNOON CRESTS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT AND DEEPEN THE
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO DY3/TUESDAY.
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LIKE THE IDEA OF
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO P.M. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG COOLER THAN
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DOMINATES THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER PA REINFORCING HIGHER PWAT AIR AT
SAME TIME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS
WEAK OVER CENTRAL PA.
BY WED NIGHT INTO THU THE NAEFS SHOWS THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST IN
FAVOR OF RISING HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR. WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES THIS IS AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF.
LATE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS A WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST AGAIN LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN WAGGLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS PA ALL WEEK. FRI WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE COULD GET INTO A "RING-OF-FIRE" TYPE
PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE SERN US AND WE GET
SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS GIVING
WAY TO A THICKENING MID LVL CLOUD DECK. HRRR/COSPA SHOWS RAIN
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER HLG/PIT TO APPROACH JST BY 00Z. THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
THUR...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...ROSS/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAILY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA.
COMPACT S/WV OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO PA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE
ERIE SEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY ESEWD THRU 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO THE LAURELS BTWN 21-00Z. HOWEVER
NEAR/SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR
RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN A NW-SE ZONE FROM ERN OH SEWD
THRU SWRN PA INTO NRN WV/WRN MD/NRN VA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PCPN
TRENDS BEYOND THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BELOW AVG...AND MUCH OF THE CWA
/PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ COULD END UP MAINLY
DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE
CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN
THE LAST TWO NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY...AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWLY
ROTATES NEWD INTO NY STATE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE OVER MT
THIS AFTERNOON CRESTS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT AND DEEPEN THE
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO DY3/TUESDAY.
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LIKE THE IDEA OF
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO P.M. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG COOLER THAN
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DOMINATES THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER PA REINFORCING HIGHER PWAT AIR AT
SAME TIME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS
WEAK OVER CENTRAL PA.
BY WED NIGHT INTO THU THE NAEFS SHOWS THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST IN
FAVOR OF RISING HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR. WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES THIS IS AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF.
LATE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS A WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST AGAIN LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN WAGGLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS PA ALL WEEK. FRI WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE COULD GET INTO A "RING-OF-FIRE" TYPE
PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE SERN US AND WE GET
SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS GIVING
WAY TO A THICKENING MID LVL CLOUD DECK. HRRR/COSPA SHOWS RAIN
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER HLG/PIT TO APPROACH JST BY 00Z. THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
THUR...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...HAVE BACKED OFF POP FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS. THE LATEST RAP AND
LAPS CAPE ANALYSES SHOW DECREASING INSTBY AND INCREASING CIN ACRS
THE ENTIRE CWFA THANKS TO THE THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY TSTMS...BUT THE
WINDOW SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION
UPSTREAM ACRS KY/TN MAY REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SO WILL KEEP A HIGHER POP THERE. ANYTHING REACHING THE
MTNS WILL LIKELY BE ON A DISSIPATING TREND GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTBY.
AT 245 PM...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DISSIPATING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NC MTNS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD MCS. A THICK SHIELD OF
DEBRIS CIRRUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA...WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CU
EAST OF THE MTNS. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY TEMPS COUPLED WITH SLOW DEWPOINT RECOVER
HAS LEFT THE I-77 CORRIDOR STABLE. AREAS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY MAY RANGE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING DEEPER CONVECTION. THE TIME HAS COME TO DEPART FROM A CAM
AND NAM SCENARIO OF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD MCS COLD
POOL...I WILL LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...UNSETTLED NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERALLY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW STRAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN BORDER. LOW TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 70S
EAST.
ON MONDAY...EXPECTING THE HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE...WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUN SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
STEADILY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF H85 WAA. IN
ADDITION...SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY...YIELDING SEVERAL DEGREES OF DEWPOINT RECOVERY. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING H5 HEIGHTS...TEMPS PEAKING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS...RESULTING IN BRISK STEERING FLOW TO THE SE. I EXPECT THAT
TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CARRIED OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BASED
ON DEEP INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR...A FEW SVR TSRAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...
WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES (S/W`S) RIPPLE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SUITE
OF MODELS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERING IN TIMING/EXACT LOCATIONS OF SAID
S/W`S...HAVE A SIMILAR THEME OF BRING A PACKET OF ENERGY ACROSS OUR
FA MONDAY NIGHT. THE ENERGY ALOFT...WITH DPVA...SHOULD INTERCEPT
INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES AND ALLOW CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP OR
MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY LOCAL COLD POOL
INTERACTIONS WITH A MICROBURST/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WE WILL HAVE
OUR HIGHEST POPS IN THE NC/FAR NE TN MOUNTAINS...WHERE BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS WERE SHOWING EXTREME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEPARATED FROM THE ACTION EXPECTED WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST. UPSHOT WE WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL POP DISTRIBUTION...
WITH POPS INCREASING UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING DOWN. THE SLIGHT
RISK MONDAY LOOKS WELL PLACED BASED ON VARIOUS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.
WE DO NOT PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE GFS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A CONVECTIVE SCHEME BLOW-UP ALLOWING DAYBREAK CONVECTION TO HIT OUR
NORTHERN FA.
TRYING TO SENSIBLY PUT TOGETHER OUR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON S/W TIMING AND COLD POOL
INTERACTIONS. WE ARE GOING TO TRY AND FOLLOW THE PRIMARY S/W AND
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. AGAIN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE WEST IS THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO START...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH...MAY
SEND AN OUTFLOW AND KICK OFF THE PROCESS. ONCE AGAIN WE ARE
HIGHLIGHTING AN UPTICK IN POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS TIMING DIFFERENCES FILTER IN. NEVERTHELESS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL BE SUCH THAT PERHAPS ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE FRONTAL PATTERN TREND LEADS TO KEEPING
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FAVORED THE UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE TN.
WE HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSELY THIS SECTION...
WHICH MAINTAINS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z THURSDAY JUST
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
COMPLETELY CLEAN...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. MODEST DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO POPS WERE KEPT NEAR TO
BELOW CLIMO AND FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. FROM THIS POINT ON MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES...SO THE FORECAST IS
WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RETROGRESSES BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOISTEN THE
AIRMASS...LIKELY DRIVING UP POPS ONCE AGAIN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
CLIMO...AND INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM EVEN MORE TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WAVES OF THICK DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. CONVECTION FROM
AN OLD MCS WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH 20Z.
CAMS INDICATE THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE MTNS BETWEEN 20-21Z...AS THE OLD COLD POOL PLOWS EAST.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND CAPE ANALYSIS THE CAMS SCENARIO
REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...I WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OLD
TAFS AND INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. AFTER THIS EVENING...THE
CONCERN FOR FOG WILL REMAIN WHERE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KAVL SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST CHC FOR FOG...I WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH 4SM BETWEEN 10Z TO 12Z. ON MONDAY...THE RISK FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE MID
TO LATE MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE CAPE...I WILL ADD A PROB30
EAST OF I-77 DURING THE FINAL HOURS OF THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FROM DEMING WEST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH HAS
PRETTY MUCH SNUFFED OUT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWLANDS...WILL REMAIN OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN TO FAR EAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MOST OF THE BORDERLAND. EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE BORDERLAND
FRIDAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS BACK
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION SO FAR IS OCCURRING ABOUT WHERE WE THOUGHT...OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SUPPRESSED ANY ACTION OVER THE EASTERN
LOWLANDS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON BOTH ENDS OF THE CWA BUT LITTLE
IN BETWEEN DUE TO THE HIGH. HRRR SHOWS NICE OUTFLOW FROM ARIZONA
MOVING EAST TO AT LEAST DEMING BY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL RUNS ON
THIS FOR CONSISTENCY...THOUGH GUST SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED LAST RUN
OR TWO. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S STILL AROUND 1.0-1.1 INCH ACROSS
THE AREA SO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT MUCH THE SAME MONDAY AGAIN AS
UPPER HIGH JUST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. FOR MONDAY AIRMASS SHOWS GOOD
INSTABILITY MOUNTAINS AND DEMING WEST...THOUGH PW`S OF 1+ INCH
ONLY FROM DEMING WEST.
BY TUESDAY UPPER HIGH IS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSION SHOULD EASE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...POPS BACK IN ALL
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS SUGGESTING BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RIDGING DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM CENTER MAY
SUPPRESS STORMS AGAIN IN THE EAST. GFS SHOWING PW`S REMAINING
AROUND 1 INCH...BUT SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SPEEDS COULD STILL LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND...REGIME OF MOUNTAIN AND FAR WEST THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE LIKELY TOO MUCH FOR THE EAST. GFS LONG TERM
SHOWS UPPER HIGH RE-CENTERING TO OUR WEST...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL
AREAS. ECMWF MORE INCLINED TO KEEP UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS PLAY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z-14/00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO FAR NORTH
AND WEST LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN250 AND WINDS AOB 12 KTS.
HOWEVER VRB15G30KT ISO-SCT -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCS AND DMN
THRU 06Z WITH BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.
$$
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. THIS WILL LIMIT
MOST WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BUT VENT
RATES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE GOOD TO VERY GOOD CATEGORY
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 74 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 97 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 53 73 53 75 / 10 20 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 95 69 97 / 20 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 63 90 64 91 / 30 30 30 30
DEMING 68 98 70 99 / 20 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 67 97 68 98 / 30 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 99 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 97 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 67 98 68 100 / 10 0 0 10
HATCH 67 98 68 100 / 10 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 69 98 70 99 / 10 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 71 98 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 10 20
MESCALERO 55 85 55 87 / 10 20 20 20
TIMBERON 56 84 57 87 / 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 59 87 60 89 / 30 30 30 50
HILLSBORO 64 96 65 97 / 20 20 20 30
SPACEPORT 67 96 68 99 / 10 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 88 59 89 / 30 40 40 40
HURLEY 64 93 65 94 / 20 40 40 30
CLIFF 62 95 63 94 / 30 40 40 30
MULE CREEK 60 97 62 96 / 40 30 30 30
FAYWOOD 64 94 65 96 / 20 30 30 30
ANIMAS 67 97 68 98 / 30 30 30 20
HACHITA 67 97 67 98 / 20 40 40 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 96 67 96 / 30 40 40 30
CLOVERDALE 65 95 66 95 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/27 HEFNER/LANEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
143 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT AND THE MESSAGE CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUCH. HEAT AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING ACROSS IA/MN AT
THIS TIME. CLOUD DISSIPATION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM FORECAST. CONVERGENCE EAST OF KABR
CONTINUES WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGINNING IN SERN ND.
WHILE THE SPC GRAPHIC HAS THE AREA IN A MODERATE/ENHANCED
RISK...IT APPEARS THE CONFIDENCE IN A CONVECTIVE TRACK IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE CONVECTION AFTER INITIATION IN WRN MN LATER TODAY
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION LOOKS TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE DAKOTAS/MN TRIPLE POINT LATER TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SIGNALS FOR INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH NEAR KRWF AND ALSO
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD KGFK.
AFTER INITIATION...A MAJORITY OF CAMS MOVE THE CONVECTION
EAST...FAVORING A MEAN WIND / ADVECTIVE COMPONENT VERSUS
PROPAGATION AND CELL GROWTH INTO THE INSTABILITY POOL TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CONVECTION IS TIED MORE TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALONG I-94 IN DAKOTAS/MN AND LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. THE SPC RISK IS BASED ON PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION
INTO THE INSTABILITY WHICH HAS ITS MAX AXIS NEAR I-35 OR THRU CENTRAL
MN BY EVENING...EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS POOL
CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WI.
WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND WEST OF MISS RIVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER WIND SHEAR AND
WIND PROFILE OVERALL. THE SPREAD OF CAM SOLUTIONS AND THE LACK OF
A LINEAR FEATURE MAY BE DUE TO THE MODEST WIND SHEAR. THIS MAY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE REPORTS FROM THIS EVENT.
BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE SUPPORTING THE SPC CONVECTIVE RISK...WITH AN
ADJUSTMENT EAST A BIT MORE INTO WI. SEEMS THE SPC RISK AND A
PROPAGATION OF NEW CELLS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND FORECAST AREA
FROM CENTRAL MN IS ON TRACK. BELIEVE IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NWRN
FORECAST AREA BY LATER EVENING /AFTER 10 PM/. INITIATION SIGNALS
NEAR KRWF ALONG A SOUTHERN CONVERGENCE REGION AND TRUE MT AIR MASS
WARM FRONT WOULD PROVIDE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF STORMS.
THE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CANNOT BE UNDERPLAYED
EVEN WITH MODEST SHEAR. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE FAVORED FOR MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH ANY LINEAR BAND FAVORING SEVERE WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SEVERE CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME
CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z
NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST
CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE
MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN
PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR
NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES
ACROSS TONIGHT.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO
SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC
WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP
FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE
MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX
COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS.
THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN.
THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP
THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE
30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE
MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
EXPECT TSRA TO MOVE IN TO THE TAF AIRSPACE PROXIMITY LATER THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE VIGOROUS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS INVOF OF TSRA. UNTIL THAT TIME SOME BKN MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD
SKIES CLEAR...OR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG BEFORE TSRA MOVE INTO THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TSRA AND IF CONDIFENCE GROWS IN
TIMING AND ONSET...THIS WILL BE REFINED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN BOTH COVERAGE AND VERTICAL
EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN DIFFICULTY
FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND +14 TO +16 DEG C AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OWING TO
STRONG MIXING. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY QPF...AND THE HRRR OFFERS
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...OPTED TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A
110 KT H25 JET STREAK AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON.
A WEAK FROPA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY ON MON...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. THINK THIS
WILL KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND
21-00Z. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE H7-H3 LAYER AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN
OR EARLY EVE. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BIG TIME DIFFERENCES IN
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE NAM SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
OVER CYS ON MON AFTN...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS 200 J/KG AT MOST. 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE FROM EITHER MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE ANYTHING SEVERE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ON TUE. THE INCREASE
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. MAINTAINED AT
LEAST SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK
FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS LITTLE CONCERN FOR STRONGER CONVECTION DESPITE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THE MODELS SHOW
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUE...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER FOR HIGHS GIVEN THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
MODELS TRENDING WARMER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRAKSA
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM MID WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH SOME
90S INTO THE PLAINS. 90 DEGREE HIGHS LIKELY FOR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SOME 100 DEGREE
READINGS LATE INTO THE WEEK IN PLACES LIKE CHADRON AND SCOTTS
BLUFF. MODELS ALSO TRENDING DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE MOVEMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
YESTERDAYS EC AND GFS BOTH WERE SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LAST
NIGHTS EC AND GFS BOTH INDICATED SPLITTING ENERGY WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE REST OF THE
ENERGY MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION AND THE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COOL AND WET AND
HOT AND DRY RESPECTIVELY. NOT REMOTELY CONFIDENT IN ANY SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE FEW AND VERY FAR BETWEEN.
STRONG ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON MON. ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT
LUSK...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS WILL ARRIVE ON TUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH