Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/12/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1000 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN MONO COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH MORE UPSTREAM MOVING EAST. WITH THE CLOUD COVER, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN MONO COUNTY AND ALSO CUT BACK ON THUNDER CHANCES AS THE LIMITED HEATING WILL KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. FURTHER NORTH, MADE NO OTHER CHANGES, BUT CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. IT APPEARS THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY SOUTH OF THIS LINE AS OF THE WRITING PERMITTING HEATING FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A DECENT CAP ON THE MORNING SOUNDING DUE TO WARMING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO APPROACH 80 IN WRN NV VALLEYS TO BREAK THE CAP AND GET DECENT CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR NOW, BUT IF THE SIERRA FRONT CLOUDS OVER, OR HEATING IS NOT SUFFICIENT, STORMS WILL BE WEAK AT BEST. AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS, IT WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK. WALLMANN && .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND WITH DECREASING STORM COVERAGE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ SHORT TERM... THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR DAYS NOW RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF DIVERGENCE UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER FORCING AND CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE (CURRENTLY AROUND 0.80" PWAT IN RENO), SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE WEAK UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SO STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY, WITH ANY ACCELERATED MOVEMENT RELIANT ON UNPREDICTABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ONCE AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN SCARS, DOWNSTREAM OF STEEP TERRAIN IN DRAINAGE BASINS, AS WELL AS IN URBANIZED POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. GIVEN THE RECENT ISSUES IN DOUGLAS COUNTY, NEAR SIX-MILE CANYON (AROUND STOREY-LYON COUNTY LINE) AND IN SPARKS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AREA IS DEEMED TO HAVE THE LARGEST POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, NOTE THAT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. GOING INTO THIS EVENING, THE 3-KM HRRR AND NAM IMPLY A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE TOWARDS LOVELOCK AND FALLON. OUTFLOWS YESTERDAY BROUGHT A HABOOB WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 50 YARDS PER A SPOTTER REPORT FROM LOVELOCK. IF A LARGE OUTFLOW OCCURS AGAIN TODAY, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING DUST AFFECTING I-80 AND PERHAPS HIGHWAY 50. WHILE THIS IS CONVECTIVELY DEPENDENT/UNCERTAIN, IT WAS WORTH THROWING BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS A HEADS UP FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE. SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST CONUS WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY RESTRICT CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND AT LEAST A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF LASSEN-NORTHERN WASHOE AND MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD INCREASE OVER TODAY SO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO WANE ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS GOING NORTH OF I-80. HOWEVER, RECENT NAM RUNS ARE DRAGGING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEVADA. I HAVE BEGUN THE TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH BUT HAVE NOT GONE FULL BORE ON THE NAM QUITE YET. SNYDER LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... NEXT WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS WEEK AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNS TO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY BRING WEAK LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES TO NORTHEAST CA AND FAR WESTERN NV, THEN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVERALL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE PROBABLE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, BUT MID LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITED FORCING SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS 85-90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS ON MONDAY, THEN RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER- MID 90S IN WESTERN NV AND 80-85 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MJD AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH ABOUT 30-40% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE MAIN TERMINALS. INITIAL CELLS MAY DEVELOP AS SOON AS 18-20Z NEAR THE SIERRA THEN 1-2 HOURS LATER FOR WESTERN NV. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY, POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT. MOST CELLS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 01Z NEAR THE SIERRA AND 04Z IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV. FOR SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED WITH LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING THE MAIN TERMINALS. AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR PREVENTED FOG FORMATION AT KTRK, BUT SOME CLEARING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITH RH NEAR 100% SO FOG REMAINS LIKELY BETWEEN 12-16Z. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN AT KTRK LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AM MAINLY BETWEEN 09-16Z. MJD && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
327 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND WITH DECREASING STORM COVERAGE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM... THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR DAYS NOW RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF DIVERGENCE UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER FORCING AND CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE (CURRENTLY AROUND 0.80" PWAT IN RENO), SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE WEAK UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SO STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY, WITH ANY ACCELERATED MOVEMENT RELIANT ON UNPREDICTABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ONCE AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN SCARS, DOWNSTREAM OF STEEP TERRAIN IN DRAINAGE BASINS, AS WELL AS IN URBANIZED POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. GIVEN THE RECENT ISSUES IN DOUGLAS COUNTY, NEAR SIX-MILE CANYON (AROUND STOREY-LYON COUNTY LINE) AND IN SPARKS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AREA IS DEEMED TO HAVE THE LARGEST POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, NOTE THAT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. GOING INTO THIS EVENING, THE 3-KM HRRR AND NAM IMPLY A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE TOWARDS LOVELOCK AND FALLON. OUTFLOWS YESTERDAY BROUGHT A HABOOB WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 50 YARDS PER A SPOTTER REPORT FROM LOVELOCK. IF A LARGE OUTFLOW OCCURS AGAIN TODAY, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING DUST AFFECTING I-80 AND PERHAPS HIGHWAY 50. WHILE THIS IS CONVECTIVELY DEPENDENT/UNCERTAIN, IT WAS WORTH THROWING BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS A HEADS UP FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE. SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST CONUS WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY RESTRICT CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND AT LEAST A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF LASSEN-NORTHERN WASHOE AND MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD INCREASE OVER TODAY SO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO WANE ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS GOING NORTH OF I-80. HOWEVER, RECENT NAM RUNS ARE DRAGGING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEVADA. I HAVE BEGUN THE TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH BUT HAVE NOT GONE FULL BORE ON THE NAM QUITE YET. SNYDER .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... NEXT WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS WEEK AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNS TO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY BRING WEAK LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES TO NORTHEAST CA AND FAR WESTERN NV, THEN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVERALL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE PROBABLE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, BUT MID LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITED FORCING SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS 85-90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS ON MONDAY, THEN RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER- MID 90S IN WESTERN NV AND 80-85 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MJD && .AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH ABOUT 30-40% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE MAIN TERMINALS. INITIAL CELLS MAY DEVELOP AS SOON AS 18-20Z NEAR THE SIERRA THEN 1-2 HOURS LATER FOR WESTERN NV. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY, POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT. MOST CELLS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 01Z NEAR THE SIERRA AND 04Z IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV. FOR SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED WITH LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING THE MAIN TERMINALS. AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR PREVENTED FOG FORMATION AT KTRK, BUT SOME CLEARING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITH RH NEAR 100% SO FOG REMAINS LIKELY BETWEEN 12-16Z. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN AT KTRK LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AM MAINLY BETWEEN 09-16Z. MJD && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING NVZ003. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND SO FAR ONLY A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR THE SRN SANGRES AND THE SWRN CO MTNS. THE HRRR SHOWS ONLY SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN ENDING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE NAM IS QUITE SIMILAR. LATE TONIGHT THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A LEE TROF OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...AND EARLY SAT MORNING THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR OR NR KIOWA COUNTY...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WL GO WITH A DRY SOLUTION FOR NOW. ON SAT AN UPR HIGH CENTER WL MOVE WESTWARD INTO ERN TX...WITH AN UPR TROF BEING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WL BE LIMITED MSTR OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON SAT AND AS A RESULT...JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STORMS REMAINING MAINLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MORE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THAN RAINFALL. WARM TEMPS ALOFT (14C TO 18C AT H7)...LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER AND WETTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS SENDING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER MAY AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS DRIER AIR WITHIN DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLD TSTMS WL BE OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KALS...AND LESS OF A CHANCE A KPUB. ON SAT...PCPN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE HYR TRRN. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
215 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MODEST AND RATHER DEEP QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY THE MAIN FACTOR LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS AND STABILITY ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE MINIMAL ACTIVITY. INDEED GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT BOULDER IS PRESENTLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT ELIMINATED THEM COMPLETELY. WHATEVER DOES MANAGE TO GET GOING DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HRRR RUNS GRADUALLY BACKING AWAY FROM ANY ACTIVITY WHATSOEVER. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER STILL WITH EVEN LESS CONVECTION THAT TODAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH THE MID LEVELS OVER COLORADO BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY... WITH MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF LESS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WL ALLOW FOR ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. FOR MONDAY...THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT TO THE SOUTH A BIT. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MORE CLOUDS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVNG. ON TUESDAY...A BROAD FLAT RIDGE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WITH A PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER COLORADO. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PREVALENT IN THE MID LEVELS SO ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG. THE OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MDL RUN SHOW A DRIER FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN CO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SATURDAY DOES NOT PROMISE MUCH MORE IN THAT DEPARTMENT. WINDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND NOT TERRIBLY ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE DURING THE EVENING. DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ET LONG TERM...COOPER AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN AT THIS UPDATE TIME IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER. FIRST...RATHER DECENT QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL NOT DO ANY FAVORS FOR CONVECTION ON THE LARGE SCALE. SECOND...GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT BOULDER HAVE FALLEN NEARLY A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. 12Z RAOB HAD A PRETTY DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LATEST ACARS DATA SUGGESTS SOME MID-LEVEL STABILITY REMAINS AT 15Z. THIRD...DEW POINTS ON THE PLAINS REMAIN RESPECTABLE ALONG WITH THE CAPE VALUES BUT EVEN BY AFTERNOON THE MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME. HRRR IS PERSISTENT IN SHOWING LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ISOLATED STUFF ON THE PLAINS AFTER AROUND 20Z. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE EARLIER FORECASTS OTHERWISE NO MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROLL SLOWLY ENE THIS MORNING ACROSS LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DECREASING. THERE IS A NICE CURL IN THE RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RECENTLY WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS EXTENDING WEST FROM THE LOW TO SOUTHWEST WELD COUNTY. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THIS CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE STATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY APPROACH THE NORMAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO REACHING THE MID 80S. WE WILL SEE THE NEXT BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AROUND MIDDAY...WITH SOME RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE STORMS WILL NOT SPREAD TO THE PLAINS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL BE FAVORED...THE SOUTH PLATTE VALLEY NORTH OF DENVER WILL HAVE FEWER STORMS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PALMER. CAPES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 RANGE. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS WILL START TO DECREASE. NAM SUGGESTS A DRYLINE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR LOGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...AND HAS CAPES OF 2500 EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THAT AREA...SO ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING OUT THERE...LINGERING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAISED THE POPS A BIT IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD IN FAR NORTHEAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. BY SUNRISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD TO OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CANADA BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT MIGRATES WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE SUBTLE SHIFT FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO PROMISES TO TRANSPORT DRIER AND WARMER AIR UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREMENTAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME READINGS POSSIBLY 3-4 DEGS F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WARMUP ON THE PLAINS BOTH DAYS WILL BE AIDED BY BREEZES DOWNSLOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. EVEN WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG SOLAR HEATING WILL GENERATE STEEP SFC-TO-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. WITH FALLING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS HIGH BASE CONVECTION. BY LATE SUNDAY...COULD SEE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN OVER NEW MEXICO AND INTO COLORADO ON SOUTHERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AROUND HERE...COULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE NAM...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL MONDAY. ANY ADDITION MOISTURE COULD INCREASE T- STORM CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH GAINING SOME STRENGTH AS THE 500 MB DROPS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OPENS TO THE DOOR TO A LONG FETCH OF VERY MOISTURE AIR ORIGINATING OVER THE ABNORMALLY WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. MODELS SHOW A STEADY RISE IN MEAN LAYER PW VALUES AND BNDRY LAYER THETA-E VALUES ACRS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO A SOMEWHAT DRIER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES EAST ALONG THE U.S./ CANADIAN BORDER. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN T-STORM CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TUESDAY POSSIBLY THE WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE STILL FORECAST TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. SUSPECT GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAYBE BE A SHADE TOO WARM WITH THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...THURSDAY APPEARS TO DRY OUT WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO GO MORE THAN VCTS IN THE NEW TAFS. CURRENT THINKING ON THE WINDS IS A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ET SHORT TERM...RTG LONG TERM...BAKER AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE... 01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY AND GULF OF MEXICO LIE UNDER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE PROVIDING A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW BROUGHT A SETUP THAT RESULTED IN AN UNUSUAL MOTION FOR OUR DIURNAL STORMS TODAY...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA. THIS DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WAS SAMPLED WELL ON THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. THE ACTIVITY TODAY WAS MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WERE IT WAS EXPECTED DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE ADVECTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...STORMS WERE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE UNDER QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A RATHER HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WAS SOMEWHAT HOSTILE TOWARD THE CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN THE STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP. SAW A COUPLE OF THESE AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA TODAY...INCLUDING A LARGE MICROBURST/DOWNBURST THAT EXPANDED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORES OF TAMPA BAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR MOST...THE STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED QUITE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND NOT SEEING MUCH ACTIVITY LEFT ON RADAR AS OF 915PM EDT. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS QUIET. STILL HAVE A FEW BOUNDARIES SEEN ON RADAR MOVING ABOUT THE AREA...SO A BRIEF AND ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF US HAVE SEEN OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT COME AND GO. FOR SUNDAY...WHILE THE DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE SEEN OVER THE NATURE COAST TODAY...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AGAIN...THE PATTERN FOR STORMS SHOULD START OVER THE NATURE COAST/INTERIOR NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE SEA-BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL HAPPEN FIRST...AND THEN MIGRATE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. AFTER THE FIRST OR SECOND GENERATION OF STORMS...THE EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL WILL SAY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE AFTER 2-3PM...AND BASED ON SOME OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE RUNS...THE RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BUMPED UP A BIT FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. AWAY FROM THE STORMS...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS THAT CAN RESIST A STORM THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN. WITH THESE TEMPS...HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 WILL BE COMMON. NORMALLY MORE HUMID LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOME OF THE BAYS MAY SEE BRIEF HIGHER VALUES...BUT THESE WILL BE OF AN ISOLATED NATURE AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AREAL FORECAST. && .AVIATION... FINAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FADING QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY AND EXPAND AND CONSOLIDATE INLAND WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED A BROAD VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18-19Z. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A PREDOMINATE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 94 79 91 / 30 30 20 40 FMY 76 95 76 92 / 20 30 30 30 GIF 76 96 76 94 / 50 40 30 50 SRQ 77 92 77 91 / 20 30 20 40 BKV 74 95 74 92 / 50 30 30 40 SPG 80 93 79 91 / 30 30 20 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1046 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EAST COAST. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ALLOWING NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH 04Z DUE TO UPPER ENERGY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HRRR WHICH HAS HANDLED THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN ON SATURDAY. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWS LFC LEVELS RISING TO 8 KFT OR HIGHER AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFIES ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. SOME DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ARE CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING WAS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT TAF ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN STRONG WIND AND HAIL. BELIEVE SOME MIXING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE FOG THREAT. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
920 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...STALLING YET AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF MID-EVENING...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PEE DEE AND GRAND STRAND...WHILE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST-SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE SLOW MOVING SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS TO THE NORTH DROP INTO THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE THIS EVENING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA....WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST RAP CAPE VALUES ARE 2500-3500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE MODERATELY STRONG CAPE/INSTABILITY...PRESENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROUGH...EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS EVENING. OUR ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING FROM STRONG DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1200-1400 J/KG. SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FEATURE DRAGS A WEAK UPPER VORT LOBE THROUGH THE AREA...DEPARTING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION AROUND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. THEN...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM SW TO NNE TOWARD MORNING. THIS FRONT LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL AREA. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S WELL INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY PROGRESSION INLAND. TEMPS WOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES...WHILE MID 90S WILL PREVAIL INLAND. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THE DISSIPATING FRONT TO ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND WHERE THE CONVERGENCE MEETS WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER DAY...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEPING THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. MONDAY...A SOMEWHAT MORE PROMINENT INLAND TROF WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE INLAND CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS WILL START WARMING A BIT AGAIN WITH A FEW UPPER 90S POSSIBLE WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN GEORGIA. THE BEST ENERGY FROM THE DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL STILL BE TRAILING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...SO I DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER BULK SHEAR EXPECTED. TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A JET MAX MOVES INTO THE DEEPENING MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST. NOT ONLY WILL THE SHEAR BE MORE SUPPORTIVE...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG WARMING OF THE LOW LAYERS. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW 925 TEMPS INLAND > 30C BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MIX DOWN TO NEAR 100 IF CORRECT. THIS WOULD ALLOW MLCAPES TO REACH NEAR 3000...REPRESENTING VERY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. I DID RAISE THE POPS A LITTLE ON TUESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS STILL QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT. IF THE JET MAX ARRIVES LATE...THE MAXIMUM DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY MAY NOT ARRIVE IN SYNC...LOWERING THE THREAT SOMEWHAT. DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LARGE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MID WEEK WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. A WEAKER SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS...BRINGING AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS IT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS MID TO LATE WEEK. GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA...THEN OFFSHORE. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED LATE WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT...WITH A FLATTENED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WARMEST OVER INLAND AREAS. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KCHS...AND WILL NEED TO MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST IF RADAR TRENDS DICTATE THE NEED. TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. THE BERMUDA ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR SC WATERS LATER TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR THE NORTHERN GA WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO WEST- NORTHWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF/SC WATERS. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY TAME ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEARBY...CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHEN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME ON MONDAY AS THE INLAND TROF BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AND THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND. WINDS ANS SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS PRESSURES DROP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. I HAVE BROUGHT WINDS SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 5 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THOSE REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE SCAS FROM LATER SHIFTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR JULY 11TH... KCHS...102 SET IN 1986. KCXM...100 SET IN 2001. KSAV...103 SET IN 1980. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FWA NEAR TERM...JAQ/RFM SHORT TERM...FWA LONG TERM... AVIATION...JAQ MARINE...RFM/FWA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
813 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EAST COAST. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ALLOWING NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH 04Z DUE TO UPPER ENERGY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HRRR WHICH HAS HANDLED THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN ON SATURDAY. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWS LFC LEVELS RISING TO 8 KFT OR HIGHER AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFIES ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. SOME DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ARE CONFINED TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BELIEVE SOME MIXING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE FOG THREAT. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 114 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND TODAY WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE. AN INLAND TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE 500 MB RIDGE IS PARKED ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WARM AIR DESCENDING DOWN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR ALL REGIONS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING MEASURED AN 850 MB TEMPERATURE OF +19C...PRECISELY WHAT BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM MODELS FORECAST. THIS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON (MIXED-LAYER CAPE EASILY 2500 J/KG) PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE RIDGE WILL LESSEN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND RAP SHOW VERY MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN THE LCL AND LFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WHICH USUALLY MEANS CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY ENTRAIN TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO GROW TALLER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE WRF-NMM CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON... AND INDEED IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG THE ONLY AVAILABLE SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. I HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POP IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA AS IT APPEARS DRY AIR WILL WIN THE BATTLE HERE. HOWEVER THE 20 POP FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA...WITH NO ESPECIALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND PLENTY OF SINKING MOTION WITHIN THE VERTICAL...LINGERING CONVECTION FAR INLAND THIS EVENING WILL COME TO AN END BY 9 OR 10 PM WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZING INFLUENCES TO DEVELOP. WINDS WON/T ENTIRELY DECOUPLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND GIVEN THE WARMTH OF TODAY WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY...A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE H5 SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LIKELY ENHANCING THE SFC THROUGH INLAND AND PRODUCING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BEST CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP HAS NOW BEEN ADDED. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A WEAKENED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY FLOW COULD LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TO START OFF THE WEEK...IN THE LOW/MID 90S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A MID LVL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ABSORBING A TUTT LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WHILE THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THE INLAND TROUGH INCHES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...LIMITING OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WARMEST OVER INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM AND THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN GOING FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL MVFR FOG TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN INCREASED WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... THIS AFTERNOON...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...PROVIDING A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE SC/GA COASTAL WATERS. THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BACK WIND DIRECTIONS MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE NORTH INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS CHARLESTON HARBOR DUE TO INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE RIDGE. THE LATEST WAVE OBSERVATION FROM THE EDISTO BUOY IS 3.5 FOOT SEAS PRIMARILY AT A 5 SECOND PERIOD...SUPPORTIVE OF 2-3 FOOT SEAS INSIDE THE 0-20 MILE COASTAL WATERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE. TONIGHT...THE INLAND TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. SOUTH/SW WINDS WILL FEEL SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING EFFECTS...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT. SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES OVER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20 KTS NEAR SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL SURGES...ESPECIALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES EACH NIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT THIS WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TO 2-4 FT. WE COULD SEE 5 FT SEAS IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...SGL MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH BY NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST OF JEROME. THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO RELY ON OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SURFACE HEATING...WHICH WILL BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING NORTHWEST WITH THE STEERING FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REACHING THE TREASURE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEDNESDAY...STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS MUCH...BUT WITH PW STILL CLOSE TO AN INCH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING IS STILL FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...LEAVING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND NOT AS MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT... BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VFR. EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...SOUTHERLY 10-20 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER WEISER BASIN TOWARDS BAKER COUNTY THROUGH 5 AM PDT AS WELL AS ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE AN ARC OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FROM BURNS TO STANLEY NORTHWARD...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND DDFT CAPE TOO SO GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER SW IDAHO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER HARNEY BAKER AND ADAMS COUNTIES. THEN SATURDAY THERE IS A TRANSITION TO MORE SHEAR AND WIND ALOFT THOUGH PWAT AND INSTABILITY REMAIN HIGH SO STORMS WILL BE FASTER MOVERS BUT STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE MONDAY MORNING. BOTH WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS WITH DEVELOPMENT FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DYNAMICS IS BETTER ON THE MONDAY /AOA 30 KTS 0-6KM SHEAR/ BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW STRONG THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MUCH STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN 00Z GFS. BOTH ARE SHOWING A TROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...JT AVIATION.....AB PREV SHORT TERM...VM PREV LONG TERM....JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
930 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OF THE REGION, WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE LONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE NOTED AS INSTABILITY WANES AND AS A SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED TO DRIVE THE STORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY 02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF KBMI AND KPIA AND WERE DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THEIR AFFECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE KBMI AND KPIA OVERNIGHT...AM LEANING TOWARDS MORE OF AN MVFR CIG FOR KBMI WITH LOW VFR (SCT-BKN CIGS) FOR OUR SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 13-15Z SUNDAY AS A RESULT...THE BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH SO OTHER THAN VCTS WILL NOT ADD ANY ADDL TEMPO GROUPS. WITH THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH... WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CIGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 9 KTS EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KTS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>043-047-048. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY 02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSST THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF KBMI AND KPIA AND WERE DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THEIR AFFECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE KBMI AND KPIA OVERNIGHT...AM LEANING TOWARDS MORE OF AN MVFR CIG FOR KBMI WITH LOW VFR (SCT-BKN CIGS) FOR OUR SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 13-15Z SUNDAY AS A RESULT...THE BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH SO OTHER THAN VCTS WILL NOT ADD ANY ADDL TEMPO GROUPS. WITH THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH... WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CIGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 9 KTS EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KTS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>043-047-048. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...SMITH
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ARLATX REGION. MEANWHILE THERE WERE SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE WAVES MOVING ON SHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE TX PANHANDLE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR PHILLIPSBURG KS TO NORTH OF HEBRON AND INTO NORTHERN MO. FOR THIS EVENING, THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THERE CERTAINLY IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR STORMS TO FORM, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE UPDRAFTS. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY SOLUTION SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE ALONE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING. THERE REMAINS SOME WILDCARDS THOUGH. THE HRRR ALSO WANTS TO DEVELOP AN MCS AND BRING IT INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH STORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, THIS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PLAUSIBLE. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW SOME LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES, HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SATURATED AIR BEING LIFTED. SO I DON`T HAVE A GOOD FEELING FOR WHETHER STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND I THINK THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONE TO CAUSE SOME ELEVATED STORMS. IN THE END HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR NORTH. FOR SUNDAY, MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WHILE 700 MB TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE DAY. SO UNLESS SOMETHING UNEXPECTED HAPPENS, LIKE AN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KS IN THE MORNING, THINK THE STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOW LIMITED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KS WHILE NORTH CENTRAL KS COULD MIX TO NEAR 800MB. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS SOME DRY AIR MOVING IN AT 850 WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 15C. SO ACROSS EASTERN KS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BUT WITH LESS MIXING SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD APPROACH 100 WITH DEEPER MIXING, BUT SHOULD MIX SOME OF THE DRYER AIR TO THE SURFACE. IN THE END, HEAT INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 105 SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM GETTING TOO FAR ABOVE 100, BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. HEAT INDICES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL INTO ADVISORY AND PERHAPS WARNING LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS IS USUAL AT THIS RANGE, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AND JUST HOW MUCH THE POOLED MOISTURE CAN MIX OUT BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT ON APPARENT TEMPS. THIS ALSO LEADS TO INSTABILITY/CAP VALUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DESPITE WEAK CONVERGENCE. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW LEADS TO MODERATE SHEAR AND COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION FOR NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH WIND POTENTIAL. HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE QUICKER FRONT TIMING WITH MORE MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH STILL MODEST RELIEF TO THE HEAT, ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY IN CHECK. THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN A SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND ENTERING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES L0CALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT COOLER WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE, WITH RIDGE REGAINING SOME STRENGTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND IN THE LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS AT TO ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK COULD EASILY BRING ABOUT MORE HEAT HEADLINE POTENTIAL BY THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE SUBSIDING FOR THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH S/SW SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...WOLTERS LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...HELLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN WITH STATIONARY FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT. NEAR OUR CWA THE MAIN CLUSTERS ARE JUST NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTH AND EAST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION...AND COMBINED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE (RAP/NAM) ARE INDICATING MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. IF THIS IS REALIZED WE COULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH SHEER PROFILES TENDING TO SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR/CLUSTER EVENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT A PRIMARY CONCERN WITH HIGHER LFCS AND LOWER 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEASONALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. I CONSIDERED KEEPING FORECAST DRY...WITH DUE TO QUESTIONS ON CAP STRENGTH AND LACK OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL (HIGHER DCAPE VALUES) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE CAP WEAKENS. FOR NOW I JUST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ADVERTISED. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET...SO I HAVE THIS ENDING BY 03Z. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY...RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. WITH MAXIMIZED MIXING WE COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 105 ON THE WARM END OF GUIDANCE (PRIMARILY IN OUR EASTER CWA). STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK ON MONDAY WILL KEEP POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVG FOR MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND ELONGATE EARLY TUESDAY AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO ROTATE ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS A SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE TUES THROUGH FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING A PEAK BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EAST/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN GOODLAND AND MCCOOK. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OF KMCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN WITH STATIONARY FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT. NEAR OUR CWA THE MAIN CLUSTERS ARE JUST NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTH AND EAST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION...AND COMBINED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE (RAP/NAM) ARE INDICATING MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. IF THIS IS REALIZED WE COULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH SHEER PROFILES TENDING TO SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR/CLUSTER EVENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT A PRIMARY CONCERN WITH HIGHER LFCS AND LOWER 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEASONALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. I CONSIDERED KEEPING FORECAST DRY...WITH DUE TO QUESTIONS ON CAP STRENGTH AND LACK OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL (HIGHER DCAPE VALUES) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE CAP WEAKENS. FOR NOW I JUST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ADVERTISED. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET...SO I HAVE THIS ENDING BY 03Z. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY...RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. WITH MAXIMIZED MIXING WE COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 105 ON THE WARM END OF GUIDANCE (PRIMARILY IN OUR EASTER CWA). STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK ON MONDAY WILL KEEP POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVG FOR MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND ELONGATE EARLY TUESDAY AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO ROTATE ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS A SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE TUES THROUGH FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN KANSAS. THIS IS IMPACTING THE KGLD TERMINAL WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. WHILE STILL NOT REFLECTING THE IMPACTS OF THE FOG/STRATUS SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG LOCATION/TIMING...AND SHOWS THIS FOG/STRATUS TRANSITIONING NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS...EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE KMCK TERMINAL. LOWEST CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY AS A RESULT IN THE CHANGING AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY AS GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS POORLY SO FAR. AFTER FOG/STRATUS LIFTS THIS MORNING...THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME HIGHEST CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE IS AT KMCK...SO I INTRODUCED VCTS GROUP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SO IT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT KMCK AROUND 03Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN WITH STATIONARY FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT. NEAR OUR CWA THE MAIN CLUSTERS ARE JUST NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTH AND EAST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION...AND COMBINED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE (RAP/NAM) ARE INDICATING MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. IF THIS IS REALIZED WE COULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH SHEER PROFILES TENDING TO SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR/CLUSTER EVENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT A PRIMARY CONCERN WITH HIGHER LFCS AND LOWER 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEASONALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. I CONSIDERED KEEPING FORECAST DRY...WITH DUE TO QUESTIONS ON CAP STRENGTH AND LACK OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL (HIGHER DCAPE VALUES) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE CAP WEAKENS. FOR NOW I JUST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION TO THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ADVERTISED. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET...SO I HAVE THIS ENDING BY 03Z. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY...RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. WITH MAXIMIZED MIXING WE COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 105 ON THE WARM END OF GUIDANCE (PRIMARILY IN OUR EASTER CWA). STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK ON MONDAY WILL KEEP POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVG FOR MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND ELONGATE EARLY TUESDAY AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO ROTATE ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS A SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE TUES THROUGH FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 GLD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 07-09Z AS CONDITIONS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. MCK WILL START OUT VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-16Z OCCASIONALLY BECOMING IFR BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AS FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY 16Z AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...LOCKHART
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 1930Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADAS. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH AZ WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS OK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT WAS OBSERVED FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE TRENDED TO KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE FROM THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS KEPT THE PRECIP MAINLY TO THE SOUTH. EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING, THINK THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST TAKING THE FORCING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS EVENING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WE CLEAR OUT, TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. FOR FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM AZ MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP SOME REASONABLE INSTABILITY, SO THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POP UP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK SO AM NOT SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT MAY BE. ALSO MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST SKILL IN HANDLING THESE WEAK WAVES KICKING OUT, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE HEAT DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CO ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA, DEEPENING THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ALL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEST TO EAST WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS AND NE BORDER. THE INCREASING LLJ THROUGH THE EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE CENTERED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, HIGHEST NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI BORDERS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 25 KTS. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS STRONG MIXING THROUGH 850 MB ADVECTS TEMPS TO THE UPPER 20S C INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. AT THIS TIME, HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER 90S FURTHER EAST. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S, BELIEVE HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY VARY BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON HOW WELL WE CAN MIX OUT THE LOW 70 DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX HEAT INDICES FROM 103 TO 106 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BOARDER. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WESTERN KANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 90S UP TO 101 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES THROUGHOUT THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 100 DEGREES, POSSIBLY UP TO 105 IN SOME AREAS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS OF 2500-3000 FEET MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE BUT SHOULD AT THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE TAF SITES BY 13Z AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENINGHOURS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WOLTERS LONG TERM...BOWEN/HELLER AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY KICKED IN ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING AND TODAY. MOST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON UNDER THE SLIGHT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...BENDING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE EASTERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OBSERVED SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 1PM CDT SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEND OUTFLOWS AND SOME UPSHEAR LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS CLOSE TO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS FOR PARTS OF PIKE...WARRICK AND SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS INDIANAPOLIS...DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE IN SPACE AND TIME. IT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...ADDED A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VERY ROBUST CAPE FOR UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR INITIATION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE INVERSION IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND POSSIBLY A MICROBURST OR TWO) WITH THIS REGIME IN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SUNDAY. THE ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE ANY DELAY IN REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SURFACE OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LEFT OVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL EXPAND WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS DEFINITELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEANED CLOSER TO THE 3KM HRRR FOR THE EXTREMELY SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...BLENDING TOWARD THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS AND WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF REGARDING ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE AREA...DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TUE. PCPN CHANCES (HIGHEST IN THE SERN QUADRANT) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING WILL WANE TUE NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW GOES SLIGHTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC...LEAVING WED DRY. BY MIDDAY THU...A SECOND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR WEST (PARTS OF SERN MO) CLOSER TO A DOMINANT SRN CONUS RIDGE. SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MINOR ENERGY IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS EVENT SHOULD END THU NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND THE ANTI- CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AGAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE MARK IN SERN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN 09-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KEVV/KOWB VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 03-04Z AND TSRA POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z AOB 6 KNOTS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE EXTENDED THE SVR TSTM WATCH SOUTH TO THE BORDER THROUGH 6 PM...AND CANCELLED THE NORTHERN PORTION WHERE STORMS HAVE BLOWN THROUGH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND HEADING EAST. UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. IF TRAINING STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...FLOODING WOULD BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS...FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING A RAPID MOVEMENT OF CELLS WHICH LIMITS THE THREAT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY... WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE... THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WAS EXITING THE NE PART OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA NORTH OF KSME AND KLOZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH. OTHER ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND HEADING EAST. UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. IF TRAINING STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...FLOODING WOULD BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS...FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING A RAPID MOVEMENT OF CELLS WHICH LIMITS THE THREAT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY... WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE... THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WAS EXITING THE NE PART OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA NORTH OF KSME AND KLOZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH. OTHER ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
135 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Intense bowing segment has now exited our forecast area. This was an impressive bowing segment that produced wind damage from the I-65 corridor near Louisville eastward through Lexington and Bluegrass region. Focus now will turn to the south as a convectively induced outflow boundary lies from near Butler county northeastward to Madison county. Instability continues to grow across the region with mixed layer CAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/KG range. DCAPE values are in the 800-1000 J/KG range as well suggestive of damaging downbursts with any of the strong storms. Current thinking is that the main convective corridor will be down from near Bowling Green to around Lancaster and points south. Some additional convection may attempt to fire out across southern Indiana, though the airmass will need to recover some more over the next few hours. Given the breaks in the sun, that should not be much of a problem. We plan on keeping the Severe Thunderstorm Watch going through 400 PM EDT. If convective activity grows larger in scale, will likely extend the box later this afternoon. Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Small, but intense bowing segment continues to push eastward across north-central KY. This storm did have supercellular characteristics as it went through eastern Meade county, the Fort Knox area, and through Bullitt county. The cell has bowed out now with a bookend vortex on the north side heading through Shelby county. This will head east-northeast through the rest of Shelby and into southern Henry and western Franklin county over the next 30-45 minutes. Convective line is moving steadily eastward at 45-48 knots. Based on this speed, it would impact the Lexington metro and the Kentucky Horse Park area in the next 30-35 minutes. We expect damaging winds to be the primary threat with this activity...though an isolated spinup could still occur. Elsewhere, stratiform rain continues out behind the main convective line. This will continue to move eastward as well. So the western and southern areas of the forecast area will remain generally dry for the next few hours. Additional convection is likely to develop across central and southern KY this afternoon. This activity will be aided by any outflows from the current convection going across north-central and east-central KY and by strong surface heating. Damaging winds will still be the primary threat. Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch #400 is in effect until 400 PM EDT. Will be monitoring convective trends for any expansions or extensions in time later this afternoon. Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning. The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit. Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours. A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region. Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into the region which should allow decent instability to develop across the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000 J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards with this afternoon`s convection. Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset. Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon, have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common, though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question where training of convection occurs. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States. The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are the models of choice for today. Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat. Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions will need to be watched for any signs of rotation. Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later. The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s. Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once again. Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from the mid 60s to around 70. On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to around 90. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the local area with mild/humid conditions in place. A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during peak heating with modest instability values across the area should yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist. Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now, model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms, some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts. For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the 10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid 90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 118 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Mid-level vort max pushing out of Missouri sparked this morning`s convection. This convection has largely push east of the terminals into eastern Kentucky with a large convective bowing segment heading for the Ashland, KY area. Along the southern edge of the convection, a convectively induced boundary has been laid down. It extends from near KHOP northeastward to south of KLEX. We expect further convective development along this line through the afternoon hours. For now, plan on leaving things dry at KSDF through the afternoon. However, will need to watch upstream to see if any new convection develops. VFR conditions along with west to west-northwest winds are expected. At KLEX, will keep some vicinity thunder in for the next hour or so and then let things dry out as well. Best chances of convection look to be at KBWG for the afternoon as the outflow boundary remains very close to the KBWG terminal. Plan on leaving in VCTS through the afternoon and will amend accordingly if storms approach the terminal. For tonight, expect some partial clearing across the region. Patchy fog seems to be likely, though not overly confident on widespread fog development. Thus, have kept some MVFR visibilities in at KLEX and KBWG for the 11/08-12Z time frame. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EDT /Midnight CDT/ Saturday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EDT /Midnight CDT/ Saturday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......ZT Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Small, but intense bowing segment continues to push eastward across north-central KY. This storm did have supercellular characteristics as it went through eastern Meade county, the Fort Knox area, and through Bullitt county. The cell has bowed out now with a bookend vortex on the north side heading through Shelby county. This will head east-northeast through the rest of Shelby and into southern Henry and western Franklin county over the next 30-45 minutes. Convective line is moving steadily eastward at 45-48 knots. Based on this speed, it would impact the Lexington metro and the Kentucky Horse Park area in the next 30-35 minutes. We expect damaging winds to be the primary threat with this activity...though an isolated spinup could still occur. Elsewhere, stratiform rain continues out behind the main convective line. This will continue to move eastward as well. So the western and southern areas of the forecast area will remain generally dry for the next few hours. Additional convection is likely to develop across central and southern KY this afternoon. This activity will be aided by any outflows from the current convection going across north-central and east-central KY and by strong surface heating. Damaging winds will still be the primary threat. Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch #400 is in effect until 400 PM EDT. Will be monitoring convective trends for any expansions or extensions in time later this afternoon. Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning. The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit. Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours. A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region. Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into the region which should allow decent instability to develop across the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000 J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards with this afternoon`s convection. Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset. Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon, have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common, though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question where training of convection occurs. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States. The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are the models of choice for today. Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat. Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions will need to be watched for any signs of rotation. Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later. The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s. Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once again. Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from the mid 60s to around 70. On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to around 90. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the local area with mild/humid conditions in place. A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during peak heating with modest instability values across the area should yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist. Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now, model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms, some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts. For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the 10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid 90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 118 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Mid-level vort max pushing out of Missouri sparked this morning`s convection. This convection has largely push east of the terminals into eastern Kentucky with a large convective bowing segment heading for the Ashland, KY area. Along the southern edge of the convection, a convectively induced boundary has been laid down. It extends from near KHOP northeastward to south of KLEX. We expect further convective development along this line through the afternoon hours. For now, plan on leaving things dry at KSDF through the afternoon. However, will need to watch upstream to see if any new convection develops. VFR conditions along with west to west-northwest winds are expected. At KLEX, will keep some vicinity thunder in for the next hour or so and then let things dry out as well. Best chances of convection look to be at KBWG for the afternoon as the outflow boundary remains very close to the KBWG terminal. Plan on leaving in VCTS through the afternoon and will amend accordingly if storms approach the terminal. For tonight, expect some partial clearing across the region. Patchy fog seems to be likely, though not overly confident on widespread fog development. Thus, have kept some MVFR visibilities in at KLEX and KBWG for the 11/08-12Z time frame. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EDT /Midnight CDT/ Saturday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EDT /Midnight CDT/ Saturday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......ZT Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND HEADING EAST. UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. IF TRAINING STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...FLOODING WOULD BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS...FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING A RAPID MOVEMENT OF CELLS WHICH LIMITS THE THREAT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY... WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE... THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 SOME IFR AND MVFR FOG AROUND THE SOUTHERN SITES RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL TO UNCERTAIN TO GO WITH A PREVAILING WITH TSRA ATTM SO VCTS WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR THIS UPDATE. THE CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED FOR ALL SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1133 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Small, but intense bowing segment continues to push eastward across north-central KY. This storm did have supercellular characteristics as it went through eastern Meade county, the Fort Knox area, and through Bullitt county. The cell has bowed out now with a bookend vortex on the north side heading through Shelby county. This will head east-northeast through the rest of Shelby and into southern Henry and western Franklin county over the next 30-45 minutes. Convective line is moving steadily eastward at 45-48 knots. Based on this speed, it would impact the Lexington metro and the Kentucky Horse Park area in the next 30-35 minutes. We expect damaging winds to be the primary threat with this activity...though an isolated spinup could still occur. Elsewhere, stratiform rain continues out behind the main convective line. This will continue to move eastward as well. So the western and southern areas of the forecast area will remain generally dry for the next few hours. Additional convection is likely to develop across central and southern KY this afternoon. This activity will be aided by any outflows from the current convection going across north-central and east-central KY and by strong surface heating. Damaging winds will still be the primary threat. Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch #400 is in effect until 400 PM EDT. Will be monitoring convective trends for any expansions or extensions in time later this afternoon. Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning. The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit. Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours. A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region. Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into the region which should allow decent instability to develop across the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000 J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards with this afternoon`s convection. Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset. Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon, have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common, though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question where training of convection occurs. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States. The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are the models of choice for today. Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat. Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions will need to be watched for any signs of rotation. Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later. The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s. Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once again. Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from the mid 60s to around 70. On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to around 90. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the local area with mild/humid conditions in place. A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during peak heating with modest instability values across the area should yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist. Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now, model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms, some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts. For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the 10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid 90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and very heavy rain. Though prevailing conditions will be VFR, individual storms will bring vsbys well below VFR. Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving us with quiet weather tonight. We will again face the possibility of patchy fog and/or low clouds towards morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR KYZ023>043-045>049- 053>057-063>067. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......ZT Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
948 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning. The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit. Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours. A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region. Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into the region which should allow decent instability to develop across the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000 J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards with this afternoon`s convection. Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset. Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon, have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common, though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question where training of convection occurs. .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States. The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are the models of choice for today. Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat. Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions will need to be watched for any signs of rotation. Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later. The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s. Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once again. Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from the mid 60s to around 70. On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to around 90. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the local area with mild/humid conditions in place. A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during peak heating with modest instability values across the area should yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist. Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now, model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms, some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts. For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the 10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid 90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and very heavy rain. Though prevailing conditions will be VFR, individual storms will bring vsbys well below VFR. Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving us with quiet weather tonight. We will again face the possibility of patchy fog and/or low clouds towards morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR KYZ023>043-045>049- 053>057-063>067. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....13 Long Term......ZT Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY... WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE... THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 SOME IFR AND MVFR FOG AROUND THE SOUTHERN SITES RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL TO UNCERTAIN TO GO WITH A PREVAILING WITH TSRA ATTM SO VCTS WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR THIS UPDATE. THE CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED FOR ALL SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States. The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are the models of choice for today. Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat. Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions will need to be watched for any signs of rotation. Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later. The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s. Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once again. Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from the mid 60s to around 70. On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to around 90. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the local area with mild/humid conditions in place. A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during peak heating with modest instability values across the area should yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist. Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now, model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms, some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts. For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the 10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid 90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and very heavy rain. Though prevailing conditions will be VFR, individual storms will bring vsbys well below VFR. Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving us with quiet weather tonight. We will again face the possibility of patchy fog and/or low clouds towards morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY... WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE... THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR. THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN. AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG IT...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE FORECAST THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING FOR A TIME...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
319 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States. The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are the models of choice for today. Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat. Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions will need to be watched for any signs of rotation. Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later. The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s. Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once again. Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from the mid 60s to around 70. On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to around 90. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the local area with mild/humid conditions in place. A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during peak heating with modest instability values across the area should yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist. Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now, model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms, some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts. For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the 10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid 90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Updated at 127 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015 An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of thunderstorms. Considered going with a prevailing TSRA at SDF during the early to mid afternoon hours, but since it`s still a ways off decided to stick with VCTS and watch model and radar trends between now and the 12Z package. Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving us with quiet weather tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH MORNING. ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 INTERESTING EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL...SURPRISE. FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN IL TO JUST SOUTH OF ELIZABETHTOWN TO LEX...TO IOB AND THEN SYM TO SOUTH OF CRW. RELATIVELY WEAK H925-H850 FLOW IS SETTING UP SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER MO/IL. FLOW THEN BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT OWENSBORO EASTWARD. ADD TO THE MIX A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...OBVIOUSLY CONCERN IS THAT TRAINING MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS. PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM LIFTS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...THE HRRR TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE ECMWF... GFS...AND RAP SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH STAYS PUT. MODELS ALSO SEEM TO BE A LITTLE SLOW MOVING A WAVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE HRRR IS BEGINNING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE... POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRAINING HOWEVER AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY...HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 SOME DECENT ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT THERE TODAY. BUT FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TOTALLY DISSIPATING. WILL MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR RETURNS. NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER LINE OF STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THIS CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS TO EXTRAPOLATE THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN. AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG IT...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE FORECAST THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING FOR A TIME...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 INTERESTING EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL...SUPRISE. FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN IL TO JUST SOUTH OF ELIZABETHTOWN TO LEX...TO IOB AND THEN SYM TO SOUTH OF CRW. RELATIVELY WEAK H925-H850 FLOW IS SETTING UP SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER MO/IL. FLOW THEN BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT OWENSBORO EASTWARD. ADD TO THE MIX A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...OBVIOUSLY CONCERN IS THAT TRAINING MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS. PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM LIFTS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...THE HRRR TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE ECMWF... GFS...AND RAP SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH STAYS PUT. MODELS ALSO SEEM TO BE A LITTLE SLOW MOVING A WAVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE HRRR IS BEGINNING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE... POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRAINING HOWEVER AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY...HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 SOME DECENT ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT THERE TODAY. BUT FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TOTALLY DISSIPATING. WILL MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR RETURNS. NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER LINE OF STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THIS CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS TO EXTRAPOLATE THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA FELT GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL LATELY IS PROBABLY TOO PESSIMISTIC. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE FORECAST AND ALSO DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG A BIT LATER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WAITING FOR DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND UNTIL BETTER CLEARING OCCURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE LOW STRATUS IN THE VALLEY AREAS THOUGH TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY. BUT AS LONG AS THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AND BRIEF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY PASSAGE THROUGH 21Z. 24/RR && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ ..SOUNDING DISCUSSION... SOUNDING THIS MORNING SEEMS MORE TYPICAL OF OUR SUMMER TIME REGIME. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY UNTIL 550MB THEN EASTERLY FURTHER ALOFT. PWAT VALUES ARE BACK UP TO NORMAL AT 1.87IN. ML AND FCST CAPE VALUES ARE 2000+ J/KG SO BOTH MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY ARE PRESENT TODAY. FCST LFC IS AT 1300M WHICH IS LOW ENOUGH THAT ONCE DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING BEGIN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL START TO DEVELOP. THERE AFTER CBRZ AND LAKEBRZ BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL PROPMT THE DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /DRJ/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ SHORT TERM... OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR FRESNO CA WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 89 DEGREES IS REACHED. HRRR DOES INDICATE HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 22Z. WSR-88D THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS EXPECTED UNDER A RIDGE AS LOW TO MID 90S ARE RECORDED AGAIN TODAY. /KEG/ LONG TERM... OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST AND CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR KAMA. THE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SOME SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY VORT MAX/SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A DOWNBURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE SE LA/MS GULF COAST. SPC HAS SOME OF THIS AREA OUTLOOKED AS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 100 TO 105 MARK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THIS SAME PATTERN THROUGH 200 HOURS WITH SOME BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE RUN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WHERE THE EAST COAST TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SOME "POPCORN" SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH DAY ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. /KEG/ AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHUM AND KMCB. CONVECTION COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/ MARINE...OVERALL NOT MUCH TO REALLY DISCUSS WITH REPSECT TO THE MARINE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH WINDS GENERALLY 6-12KTS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE NEAR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS WHICH WOULD PROVIDELOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/ DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 BTR 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 10 ASD 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 10 MSY 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 20 10 GPT 89 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 PQL 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... SOUNDING THIS MORNING SEEMS MORE TYPICAL OF OUR SUMMER TIME REGIME. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY UNTIL 550MB THEN EASTERLY FURTHER ALOFT. PWAT VALUES ARE BACK UP TO NORMAL AT 1.87IN. ML AND FCST CAPE VALUES ARE 2000+ J/KG SO BOTH MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY ARE PRESENT TODAY. FCST LFC IS AT 1300M WHICH IS LOW ENOUGH THAT ONCE DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING BEGIN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL START TO DEVELOP. THERE AFTER CBRZ AND LAKEBRZ BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL PROPMT THE DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /DRJ/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ SHORT TERM... OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR FRESNO CA WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 89 DEGREES IS REACHED. HRRR DOES INDICATE HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 22Z. WSR-88D THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS EXPECTED UNDER A RIDGE AS LOW TO MID 90S ARE RECORDED AGAIN TODAY. /KEG/ LONG TERM... OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST AND CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR KAMA. THE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SOME SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY VORT MAX/SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A DOWNBURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE SE LA/MS GULF COAST. SPC HAS SOME OF THIS AREA OUTLOOKED AS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 100 TO 105 MARK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THIS SAME PATTERN THROUGH 200 HOURS WITH SOME BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE RUN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WHERE THE EAST COAST TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SOME "POPCORN" SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH DAY ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. /KEG/ AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHUM AND KMCB. CONVECTION COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/ MARINE...OVERALL NOT MUCH TO REALLY DISCUSS WITH REPSECT TO THE MARINE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH WINDS GENERALLY 6-12KTS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE NEAR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS WHICH WOULD PROVIDELOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/ DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 BTR 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 10 ASD 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 10 MSY 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 20 10 GPT 89 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 PQL 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM... OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR FRESNO CA WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 89 DEGREES IS REACHED. HRRR DOES INDICATE HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 22Z. WSR-88D THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS EXPECTED UNDER A RIDGE AS LOW TO MID 90S ARE RECORDED AGAIN TODAY. /KEG/ .LONG TERM... OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST AND CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR KAMA. THE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SOME SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY VORT MAX/SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A DOWNBURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE SE LA/MS GULF COAST. SPC HAS SOME OF THIS AREA OUTLOOKED AS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 100 TO 105 MARK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THIS SAME PATTERN THROUGH 200 HOURS WITH SOME BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE RUN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WHERE THE EAST COAST TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SOME "POPCORN" SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH DAY ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. /KEG/ && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHUM AND KMCB. CONVECTION COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/ && .MARINE...OVERALL NOT MUCH TO REALLY DISCUSS WITH REPSECT TO THE MARINE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH WINDS GENERALLY 6-12KTS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE NEAR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS WHICH WOULD PROVIDELOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/ && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 BTR 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 10 ASD 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 10 MSY 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 20 10 GPT 89 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 PQL 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
934 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL DRY OUT BY MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 I HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. I EXPUNGED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE I-94 AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IT SEEMS CLEAR TO ME BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN THE IR IMAGE LOOPS...RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS...AND RECENT RAP MODEL DATA THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MOST WE WOULD SEE HERE IS SHOWERS FROM A MID CLOUD DECK AND THAT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...NEARLY ALL OF THAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. MOSTLY WE WILL BE SEEING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THE STEADIEST RAINS AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FIRST SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD HUG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH INTO SW MI MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE WAVE SLOWLY EXITING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY... EXPECT WE WILL SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF PCPN COVERAGE AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER STILL CAN/T RULE A FEW ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE APPEARS MORE POTENT THEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW BRINGS THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND WE SHOULD THEREFORE GET WITHIN THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE STORM PATH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK MARGINAL AS THE JET DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG. SO AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED ON MONDAY...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OTHERWISE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON TUESDAY WHILE THE LESS FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS. THE MAIN RISK APPEARS TO EAST OF HWY 131 WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. A LAKE SHADOW MAY KEEP AREAS WEST OF HWY 131 DRY ON TUESDAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY DELIVERS A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRY TREND MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY AS WELL BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING BACK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR THAN THE ECMWF. LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS H8 TEMPS ABOVE 20C ARRIVING NEXT SATURDAY WHICH MAY SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST MIDNIGHT... BUT AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER TO I-80 (AROUND 09Z OR S0) MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE I-94 TAF SITES. THERE IS A WAVE ON THE FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY. ONCE THAT SURFACE WAVE GETS EAST OF THIS AREA...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUR (18Z-21Z). WHILE RAIN IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...WHAT RAIN DOES HAPPEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND MOSTLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94. I PUT VCSH FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. THE I-96 TAF SITES SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT GET THE MVFR CIGS AT ALL BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 OTHER THEN THE RISK OF STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE LAKE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THEN...THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. STREAMFLOW REMAINS HIGH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH. ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ONE OF TRANSITION...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE NORTHLAND BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD OVERALL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 65 80 63 79 / 40 30 70 50 INL 62 85 64 83 / 10 40 40 50 BRD 65 89 65 87 / 50 30 70 40 HYR 65 83 66 82 / 30 40 60 50 ASX 62 82 63 80 / 10 30 60 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1157 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 .UPDATE: ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS RAP AND ECWMF, KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE AND HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF I-70. SO CANCELLED A PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ACTUALLY BEEN PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING, BUT DO EXPECT IT TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT. SO MOST AREAS TO SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. BYRD && .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT. MCV ORIGINATING FROM A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THIS AFTN ALONG THE UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW AND PASS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NE OK/SE KS/SW MO WILL SPREAD NE THRU THE EVNG IN ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE, THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY CURRENTLY LAYED OUT FROM NE OK ACROSS STHRN MO AND STHRN IL AND ON INTO THE OH VLY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE MCV. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN NORTH AS WELL. INDICATIONS ARE IS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE I44 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS SO WILL MOVE UP THE START TIME OF A PORTION OF THE FFA ACROSS CNTRL MO TO 2Z/9PM. MCV SHIFTS NE OF THE FA FRI MRNG. 2% .LONG TERM: (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FOR THE WKND. THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BNDRY DOESN`T GET TOO FAR NORTH OF THE CWA BUT FAR ENOUGH THAT A HOT/STICKY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND DPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-5000 J/KG RANGE. A SHORT WAVE SHOULD INDUCE ANOTHER TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS IA FRI NIGHT WHICH MAY DROP SE SAT MRNG ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY AFFECTING NTHRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHRAS/TSTMS SHOULD GET GOING SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT THE FA ATTM. A DIURNAL THREAT OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WKND...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NTHRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU THE WKND CLOSER TO THE BNDRY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS ON SUN THAN SAT DUE TO THE BNDRY LIFTING FURTHER N AND MID LVL TEMPS INCREASING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT GRADIENT WRT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT NE OF THE STL METRO AREA DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LVL RIDGE SHIFTS W ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE FA GETS BACK INTO NW FLOW WITH ANOTHER FROPA ON TUE. THE BNDRY STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE KS/OK, MO/AR, KY/TN BORDER WED. THE BNDRY IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK N LATE WED NIGHT/THU IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF AND DVLPNG MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER BNDRY APPROACHES THE CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF FROM THE VALUES EXPERIENCED THIS WKND BUT SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 NEXT WEEK DUE TO 850 TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. 2% && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 AREA OF RAIN...WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...IS MOVING MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THIS AREA OF RAIN, BUT KUUV IS REPORTING 600FT OVERCAST AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS OBVOUSLY SOME EMBEDDED LOW STRATUS. SHOULD SEE MVFR AND THEN IFR SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS ONLY NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS STAYING IN LOW MVFR CATEGORY. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, BUT TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AND INTO VFR CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH OF THE AREA. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: KUUV ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAMBERT REPORTED 600FT OVERCAST CEILINGS WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN, SO WILL START LAMBERT OUT WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR CEILNIGS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME VARIABILITY FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH IFR SETTLING DOWN BY 10-12Z. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, BUT TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AND INTO VFR CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH OF THE AREA. CARNEY && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO- FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO- OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO- WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR JEFFERSON MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR RANDOLPH IL. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL- FAYETTE IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL- WASHINGTON IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
917 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS CONTINUE IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DEPARTING...BUT ANOTHER IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WY AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT THAT IS APPROACHING SHERIDAN COUNTY FROM THE SW. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SHOWERS FORMING IN POWDER RIVER COUNTY. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT SO FEEL SOME ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR AND 00Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS AS WELL. HAVE ADDED ISOLD POPS ACROSS OUR E-SE PARTS THRU 12Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE BILLINGS AREA HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAINFALL EFFICIENTLY...INDICATIVE OF THE FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS NEAR AN INCH NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. JKL && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON... A PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT...URGED THAT DIRECTION BY SOME WEAK ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ENERGY WILL RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY...BUT THESE STORMS WILL FIGHT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITH RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 PERCENT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA. TOMORROW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT DOWNSLOPE DRYING ON SUNDAY BUT ENHANCED ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS. MONDAY SEES SOME RIDGING BUILD IN BEHIND SUNDAYS SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE ENERGY MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT... MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD LOOKS MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TROF CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGE TO END THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A TROF CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CONTINUED GOOD MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BOLSTERED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED WITH THE WAVE. RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A ZONAL TYPE FLOW FOR THURSDAY...BRINGING CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. MODELS DIVERGE DRASTICALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING THE FRONT IN FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY INCREASE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE...SO LEANED TOWARD A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND. AAG && .AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF KBIL. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY AND VFR CONDITIONS. BORSUM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061/088 060/090 061/086 060/084 059/088 058/086 057/081 22/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 31/B 12/T 22/T LVM 054/084 053/086 053/082 052/080 051/085 051/084 049/079 23/T 13/T 34/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 22/T HDN 057/091 057/094 058/090 059/087 058/090 057/088 056/084 22/T 11/B 22/T 34/T 42/T 22/T 22/T MLS 062/091 061/094 062/093 063/089 061/088 059/088 059/084 22/T 10/U 23/T 34/T 42/T 12/T 22/T 4BQ 061/092 060/093 062/092 061/089 060/087 059/086 058/083 21/B 01/B 12/T 34/T 42/T 22/T 22/T BHK 060/089 060/090 059/091 060/087 059/085 057/084 057/081 22/T 10/U 02/T 44/T 52/T 22/T 22/T SHR 055/088 054/089 055/087 055/083 055/086 055/083 053/080 22/T 21/B 22/T 34/T 42/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
951 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... UPDATE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING HOT TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND UP POPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI BREAKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES. THE LATEST NAM...SSEO AND HRRR RUNS ALL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE THIS AFTERNOON. GILCHRIST PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LINK TO PACIFIC MOISTURE IS NOT STRONG BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW OPENS UP AND ITS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD. LEE TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL CONTINUE TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY. JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CALIFORNIA TROF WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS JET AND LEE TROF/DRY LINE IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL AID IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING DRIER AIR OFF THE MOUNTAINS. GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP WITH LOW PRESSURE SPINNING UP OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. POTENTIAL HIGH FOR NEEDING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. EBERT .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE VERY SLOW-MOVING REMNANTS OF THE WEEKEND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY EMERGE AS THE EC MAINTAINS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AND CALMER CONDITIONS WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY DRAWS IN THE NEXT SHORT- WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...GENERATING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SEEMS A BIT MORE IN SYNC WITH EACH OTHER SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP. THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. GFS MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH WHILE THE EC ADVERTISES A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE. SUBTLE PRECIP CUES THIS FAR OUT WERE SIMPLY BLENDED WITH CLIMO POPS UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT EMERGES. OVERALL...WE CAN EXPECT A QUICKLY-REPEATING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. OTHERWISE...TRIED TO SHARPEN UP THE POPS WHERE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT WAS FOUND AND BLEND MORE BROADLY WHERE IT WAS NOT FOUND. MICKELSON && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LINGERING SMOKE PARTICLES MAY MAINTAIN SOME HAZE BUT LARGELY REDUCED VISIBILITY IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY REDUCED VSBY IF ANY STORM HAPPENS TO PASS OVER A TERMINAL. MICKELSON && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAINFALL AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF VERY SLOWLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A STORM WOULD DROP VSBYS BLW 3SM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE ENE NEAR 15KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TURN TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AFT 20Z FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED THAN TODAY. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON... FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS AND SHUTS DOWN CHANCES THERE. A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW...AND HOLD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONLY THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... A MONSOON MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS. TODAY`S ROUND OF STORMS FAVORS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WHERE SHEAR IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CROP OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SOCORRO... BELEN AND ALBUQUERQUE. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO BETWEEN 23-01Z. LOOKING MORE LIKE A GOOD BET HERE IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO WITH A LAST LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 3 PM MDT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DIFFERENT THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH... CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES... MAINLY EAST...AND A FOCUSING OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING-IN. SO...EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SLOWER MOTION TO TILT THE THREAT TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND BACK DOWN MON/TUE AS THE UPPER HIGH BACKS OFF TO THE EAST A BIT...ALLOWING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO TILT BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA... LEAVING-OUT ONLY THE SOUTHEAST IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. A FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT THE IDEAL PLUME POSITIONING WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUR FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD CLIMO FOR FRI/SAT. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DOWN TREND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...WITH LESS ACTIVITY EAST CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT...FINALLY REACHING ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WHILE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...WITH AREAS OF 5 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. VENTILATION TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON SURGE FROM MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAVORED THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES TODAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES. AS THE UPPER CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE PLUME WILL BE NUDGED TO THE WEST AS WELL SUCH THAT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE WETTING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THERE ON MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY COULD ALSO HELP EXTEND THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH COULD WEAKEN/FLATTEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOME ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MONSOON PLUME COULD REPOSITION OVER NEW MEXICO...THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME. 05 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW FOR DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS TO RETURN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN... ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. && .DISCUSSION... AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS FORCING A STRONG 40-60KT UPPER JET OVER AZ/NM. A 594DM H5 UPPER HIGH DRIFTING WEST OVER EAST TX IS TAPPING A JUICY ATMOSPHERE FROM MEXICO AND SHIFTING IT NORTHWARD INTO THE FASTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING IN THIS PATTERN IS FORCING SEVERAL STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE STORM COVERAGE IS LESS TODAY AND ACTIVITY IS BUMPING ALONG QUICKLY FOR JULY...THUS LIMITING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN 3PM AND 7PM. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. STORM MOTIONS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST AND IMPINGES ON THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER BURST IS ADVERTISED BY MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. INCREASED POPS AGAIN SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK... A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE THE FEWEST STORMS WHILE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES REMAIN MORE ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NORMAL OR HIGHER LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND MUCH OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST DAYS WITH LOWER VALUES...AND SOME AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION ON SUNDAY AND THURSDAY. INTERESTING PATTERN FOR JULY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW POSITIONED CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER JET EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN BAJA...ACROSS ARIZONA AND OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME ARE PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING HAVE NOT REALLY TRANSLATED INTO WESTERN ZONES TODAY. THUS... OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...MAINTAINING THE FLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN A WESTWARD NUDGE OF THE MONSOON PLUME. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE MOST ZONES...WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CORNERS LEAST FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERN ZONES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FAVORED. 05 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KTS. ADDITIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR JULY...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG... PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSTRUCTIONS. MAINLY SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 56 85 57 87 / 30 10 20 10 DULCE........................... 46 78 48 80 / 30 20 20 20 CUBA............................ 50 76 53 79 / 30 20 30 30 GALLUP.......................... 50 83 53 83 / 30 20 20 30 EL MORRO........................ 49 80 52 80 / 60 30 30 50 GRANTS.......................... 51 82 54 82 / 50 30 40 40 QUEMADO......................... 52 81 55 82 / 30 30 30 50 GLENWOOD........................ 56 85 58 87 / 40 20 30 30 CHAMA........................... 45 71 47 74 / 30 20 20 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 78 57 81 / 40 30 30 40 PECOS........................... 52 78 55 82 / 50 30 30 30 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 74 50 77 / 30 20 10 30 RED RIVER....................... 44 65 46 68 / 30 30 20 40 ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 69 49 72 / 30 30 20 40 TAOS............................ 49 80 50 82 / 20 20 10 20 MORA............................ 50 77 52 79 / 50 30 30 40 ESPANOLA........................ 55 84 57 87 / 30 20 20 30 SANTA FE........................ 56 78 58 81 / 40 20 30 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 82 58 85 / 30 20 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 84 62 87 / 40 20 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 86 64 89 / 30 20 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 87 63 90 / 30 20 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 88 63 91 / 30 20 30 30 LOS LUNAS....................... 60 86 63 90 / 30 20 30 30 RIO RANCHO...................... 60 87 63 90 / 30 20 30 30 SOCORRO......................... 61 88 63 92 / 30 20 20 40 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 81 58 84 / 40 30 30 30 TIJERAS......................... 55 83 59 86 / 40 20 30 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 83 55 86 / 30 20 30 30 CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 80 57 84 / 50 30 30 30 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 81 58 84 / 40 30 20 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 60 85 61 88 / 50 20 20 40 RUIDOSO......................... 57 76 58 80 / 60 60 30 40 CAPULIN......................... 56 82 58 84 / 30 20 10 10 RATON........................... 55 84 56 87 / 30 10 10 10 SPRINGER........................ 54 86 57 88 / 30 10 10 10 LAS VEGAS....................... 53 80 55 83 / 40 30 20 40 CLAYTON......................... 62 91 64 95 / 30 10 20 10 ROY............................. 58 86 61 89 / 30 10 10 10 CONCHAS......................... 64 93 66 97 / 30 10 10 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 63 90 65 94 / 40 20 10 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 65 93 67 97 / 40 20 10 5 CLOVIS.......................... 63 89 65 93 / 30 20 10 5 PORTALES........................ 64 90 66 93 / 30 20 10 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 65 89 66 94 / 30 20 10 5 ROSWELL......................... 67 93 67 96 / 50 20 10 5 PICACHO......................... 61 85 61 89 / 60 40 10 20 ELK............................. 59 79 60 83 / 60 50 30 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KTS. ADDITIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR JULY...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG... PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSTRUCTIONS. MAINLY SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. 05 && .PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...FIRST STARTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THE MONSOONAL PLUME OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND HEATING UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS PAST WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. && .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WANE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT....ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM...LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW STORMS POP UP...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THAT. OTHER MODELS...HOWEVER...SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN NM...LIMITING CONVECTION. DO SEE SOME DRYING ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL BE EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THANKS TO A VORT MAX IN THE SW FLOW. SHOULD HAVE DECENT STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH WITH THAT SAID...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH WATER TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. THE UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND... PUSHING THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PLUME WESTWARD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE...SO SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN NM. THUS...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE THERE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE MONDAY AND MORESO ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IT MAY SHIFT JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND ON OCCASION. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AT LEAST NW NM BY MID WEEK AS MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH AND FLATTENED. EC IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH...SO TIME WILL TELL. DOES LOOK LIKE IT WONT BE AS ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS IT HAS BEEN THIS PAST WEEK. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER JET RELATED TO UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO COLORADO AND WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN NM SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MAY STILL MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS TREND DID NOT WORK OUT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME 30S DEW POINTS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS MORNING SO PERHAPS THE MODELS WILL BE END UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SLOWLY WESTWARD SHIFTING UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TEND TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MORE DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO. BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED PROCESS AND OVERALL THE WEEK LOOKS LESS ACTIVE THAN THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. MODELS STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING ALONG/WEST OF THE BAJA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WARM CLOSER TO...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS DRIER NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL RECOVERIES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND SATURDAY THEN LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT IMPROVE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE HIGHER TERRAIN OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR ERN PLAINS UNTIL AROUND 15Z. ISOLD CONVECTION AT 12Z WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND AFT 18Z. CELL MOTION GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND SFC WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AFT 18Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...FIRST STARTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THE MONSOONAL PLUME OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND HEATING UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS PAST WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. && .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WANE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT....ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM...LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW STORMS POP UP...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THAT. OTHER MODELS...HOWEVER...SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN NM...LIMITING CONVECTION. DO SEE SOME DRYING ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL BE EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THANKS TO A VORT MAX IN THE SW FLOW. SHOULD HAVE DECENT STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH WITH THAT SAID...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH WATER TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. THE UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND... PUSHING THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PLUME WESTWARD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE...SO SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN NM. THUS...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE THERE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE MONDAY AND MORESO ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IT MAY SHIFT JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND ON OCCASION. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AT LEAST NW NM BY MID WEEK AS MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH AND FLATENNED. EC IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH...SO TIME WILL TELL. DOES LOOK LIKE IT WONT BE AS ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS IT HAS BEEN THIS PAST WEEK. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER JET RELATED TO UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO COLORADO AND WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN NM SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MAY STILL MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS TREND DID NOT WORK OUT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME 30S DEW POINTS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS MORNING SO PERHAPS THE MODELS WILL BE END UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SLOWLY WESTWARD SHIFTING UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TEND TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MORE DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO. BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED PROCESS AND OVERALL THE WEEK LOOKS LESS ACTIVE THAN THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. MODELS STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING ALONG/WEST OF THE BAJA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WARM CLOSER TO...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS DRIER NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL RECOVERIES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND SATURDAY THEN LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT IMPROVE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...FIRST STARTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THE MONSOONAL PLUME OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND HEATING UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS PAST WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. && .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WANE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT....ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM...LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW STORMS POP UP...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THAT. OTHER MODELS...HOWEVER...SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN NM...LIMITING CONVECTION. DO SEE SOME DRYING ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL BE EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THANKS TO A VORT MAX IN THE SW FLOW. SHOULD HAVE DECENT STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH WITH THAT SAID...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH WATER TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. THE UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND... PUSHING THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PLUME WESTWARD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE...SO SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN NM. THUS...BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE THERE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE MONDAY AND MORESO ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IT MAY SHIFT JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND ON OCCASION. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AT LEAST NW NM BY MID WEEK AS MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH FURTHER SOUTH AND FLATENNED. EC IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH...SO TIME WILL TELL. DOES LOOK LIKE IT WONT BE AS ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS IT HAS BEEN THIS PAST WEEK. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER JET RELATED TO UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO COLORADO AND WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE EARLY THIS MORNING WESTERN NM SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MAY STILL MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS TREND DID NOT WORK OUT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME 30S DEW POINTS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS MORNING SO PERHAPS THE MODELS WILL BE END UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SLOWLY WESTWARD SHIFTING UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TEND TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MORE DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO. BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED PROCESS AND OVERALL THE WEEK LOOKS LESS ACTIVE THAN THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. MODELS STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING ALONG/WEST OF THE BAJA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WARM CLOSER TO...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS DRIER NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL RECOVERIES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND SATURDAY THEN LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT IMPROVE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE MAIN TS/SH COVERAGE THROUGH 08/09Z WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EC/SE PLAINS WHICH INCLUDES IMPACTS TO TCC. ANOTHER BATCH OF SEMI ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCT SH AND ISOLD TS WILL BE FOUND CROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. IMPACTS TO GUP/FMN WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT PRETTY HIT AND MISS. EVENTUALLY ABQ/AEG SHOULD SEE SOME SH DVLPMENT BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN EARNEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL MTNS LATE MORN/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OUT IN COVERAGE. DOESNT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH COVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED TODAY SO USING VCTS/VCSH. ROW/TCC HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF DIRECT TS HOWEVER AND LASTING WELL INTO TMRW EVE. HAVE SCALED BACK MVFR CIG POTENTIAL AT TCC LATE TONIGHT. 50 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 81 55 86 58 / 30 10 10 20 DULCE........................... 74 46 78 48 / 40 30 20 30 CUBA............................ 74 49 77 52 / 50 40 20 30 GALLUP.......................... 79 48 84 53 / 30 10 20 30 EL MORRO........................ 75 49 81 52 / 40 20 40 40 GRANTS.......................... 78 50 83 54 / 30 30 30 30 QUEMADO......................... 76 52 81 55 / 30 20 40 40 GLENWOOD........................ 81 55 85 58 / 30 20 40 40 CHAMA........................... 72 44 74 46 / 50 40 20 20 LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 55 78 57 / 50 50 40 40 PECOS........................... 74 52 78 54 / 50 50 30 40 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 48 75 51 / 30 30 20 20 RED RIVER....................... 66 43 70 46 / 40 30 30 30 ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 46 72 48 / 50 40 30 30 TAOS............................ 78 47 79 51 / 30 30 10 20 MORA............................ 74 50 77 52 / 50 50 40 40 ESPANOLA........................ 80 54 84 56 / 40 40 20 30 SANTA FE........................ 77 56 81 57 / 40 40 30 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 55 84 57 / 30 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 81 60 84 63 / 40 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 63 86 66 / 30 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 60 87 63 / 30 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 61 86 64 / 30 30 20 30 LOS LUNAS....................... 82 60 86 63 / 30 30 20 30 RIO RANCHO...................... 82 61 86 63 / 30 30 20 30 SOCORRO......................... 84 62 88 63 / 30 30 30 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 56 80 58 / 50 50 30 40 TIJERAS......................... 79 56 83 59 / 40 50 30 40 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 52 83 54 / 40 40 20 30 CLINES CORNERS.................. 77 55 80 57 / 50 50 30 30 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 56 80 59 / 50 50 40 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 81 61 84 61 / 50 50 30 30 RUIDOSO......................... 74 57 75 57 / 60 70 60 40 CAPULIN......................... 78 54 82 57 / 30 30 20 20 RATON........................... 82 54 85 55 / 30 30 20 20 SPRINGER........................ 83 56 86 58 / 30 30 20 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 78 53 81 55 / 40 40 30 30 CLAYTON......................... 84 61 92 64 / 20 30 10 10 ROY............................. 81 58 86 61 / 30 30 20 20 CONCHAS......................... 86 64 91 66 / 40 30 10 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 85 62 89 64 / 50 40 30 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 88 65 94 67 / 40 40 10 10 CLOVIS.......................... 84 63 89 64 / 50 50 20 10 PORTALES........................ 84 65 90 65 / 50 50 20 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 84 64 88 65 / 50 40 20 10 ROSWELL......................... 88 66 93 67 / 50 50 20 10 PICACHO......................... 81 61 85 61 / 60 50 40 20 ELK............................. 76 59 79 58 / 60 60 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1020 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY...MILD MID-JULY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED 500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800 AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV 4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO THE HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECK REMAININ IN PLACE. WITH CLOUD COVER NOT FORECASTING FOG FORMATION AT TAF SITES. WEAK FRONT TO NORTH FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN ONTARIO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. LATEST DATA CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHEAST NY AND VERMONT CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT TAF SITES DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES KSLK/KMPV, HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW OF HITTING INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE AND IN OUTER PERIOD OF TAF CYCLE SO OPTED TO KEEP THEM OUT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHWEST BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER SUNRISE. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK. 12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER. 00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY... A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA HAS TRIGGERED NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NC IN A STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS NORTHEAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED AND LESS INTENSE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN....WITH REALLY JUST SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF I-95...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE RAH CWA AND WITHIN THE ONGOING SEVERE TSTORM WATCH. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN EXPANDING BUT NO MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OFFSHORE AND ALLOW A SECONDARY...EFFECTIVE FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL ADVECT SOME LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER VA... WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE 1000- 2000FT RANGE...SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...BUT NAM/GFS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER EAST OF US HWY 1. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOWER SOUTH AND EAST 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM SATURDAY... WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE NC/VA COAST...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. THICKNESSES AROUND 1400M SUNDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 10M BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 87-91 RANGE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND/OR OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING OR EVEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND ITS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY THERE WILL BE TO AID IN ANY ADDITIONAL MUCAPE OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST...FOLLOWING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED OVER TX/LA...WITH TROUGHS OVER EACH COAST...THROUGH THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO POTENTIAL REMNANT MCS/MCVS TRACKING OVERHEAD AND HENCE SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN PRECISE TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION...WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL TYPE POPS EACH DAY. AS OF NOW... TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE AS MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION BETTER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE PROGGED OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AND MODELS INDICATE A MODIFIED EML ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF IS STILL 12-24 HOURS BEHIND IN RELATION TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST SHORTWAVE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL SHOW THE RELATIVE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH AT LEAST CLIMO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT THIS COULD BE ALTERED BY HIGHER CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY... EXCEPT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY BETWEEN 08Z- 12Z/SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY. HOWEVER... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE KINT/KGSO AREAS... AND ELSEWHERE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PWB NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...PWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2150 UTC OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 18-20 UTC HRRR RUNS...INTRODUCED POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. OVER OUR AREA...SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES...THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR IS AVAILABLE SO EXPECT STORMS OVERALL TO REMAIN TAME AND RATHER PULSE. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DRAWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A DRYLINE WILL SETUP WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TIMING OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES QUITE A BIT WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST SHEAR TO BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE SATURDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO RECEIVE MANY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. WARM...MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. A RATHER WARM AND MUGGY SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST SPC SEVERE OUTLOOKS PLACE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SATURDAY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST. AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS WEEKEND`S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ISOLD/SCT -TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
737 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT AKRON CANTON AREA SHOWING SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE OCCURRING. LATEST HRRR MODEL AND NAM MODEL SHOW SOME PATCHY SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...MORE CLOUDS ADVANCING IN WITH NEXT SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. STILL THINK SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL FORCING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE PLAYED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR PUSHES VERSUS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AND THIS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AS SUN BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH. SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST A BIT AS MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF A LATER ARRIVAL TIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS. ACTUALLY LOOKING AT DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION THREAT AS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA BY THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. I DID NOT GO EXCESSIVE WITH THE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SPREADING OUT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR BASIN AVERAGES. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD WIND UP BEING OUR FIRST MUGGY NIGHT OF THE SUMMER SEASON AS LOWS HOVER AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER FRUSTRATING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES BUT APPARENTLY NOT ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SHORT WAVES OR SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH DAYS...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRY. I SUSPECT THAT TUESDAY WILL TRY TO DRY OUT AS THE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS A DECENT SHORT ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY COULD BE DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS WARMER THEN THE OTHER MODELS BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO CONTINUITY FOR THE TEMPERATURES. WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO KERI THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LINGER FARTHER SOUTH. THE FOG SEEMS SHALLOW AND WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THRU MID MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP FROM KFDY TO KMFD TO KCAK THIS MORNING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT ... WITH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES...JUST A FEW SPOTS WITH IFR VISIBILITIES. OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTUAL WIND WILL LIKELY END UP AS AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS MAY PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
633 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS APPEARING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS ACCORDING TO SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HRRR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...LEADING TO HIGHER POPS OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ANOTHER DAY...MORE CHANCES FOR TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT GET OUT OF THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT IS VERY FRAGILE IN TERMS OF ANY SORT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHETHER IT BE FROM AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.50- 1.75 INCH RANGE REMAIN IN PLACE FROM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THERE IS WHAT SEEMS TO BE A CONSTANT CONCERN FOR ANY SORT OF PROLONGED RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OR TRAINING CONVECTION. BOTH HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN THIS PATTERN. THAT SAID...WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY SORT OF FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL STRONGLY WORD POTENTIAL ISSUES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT 6-18 HOURS AND WILL BE LARGELY BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR LOWLAND HIGHS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ALL CONTINUE THE QUITE UNSETTLED...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON VERY FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA WITH EACH DISTURBANCE AND THE QUITE WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS ONE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY. GIVEN THE EXACT TRACK UNCERTAINTIES OF THE DISTURBANCES...AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...WILL TEND TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS. HOWEVER...IF ANY TIME LOOKS TO BE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS...IT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LUSH VEGETATION...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS... TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ALSO HUMID. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALLOWED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...ALLOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS. WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY FROM TERMINAL TO TERMINAL THIS MORNING. PKB SOCKED IN WITH FOG...WHILE LIFR TO MVFR STRATUS PLAGUES THE OTHER SITES EXCEPT FOR CRW...WHICH IS VFR. IMPROVE THESE CONDITIONS SLOWLY THIS MORNING IN THIS ATMOSPHERE...THEN BRING IN SHOWERS WITH VCTS/CB FOR THE BULK OF THE SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SO IT WILL NOT BE LIMITED TO DIURNAL HEATING TIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION TO VARY TODAY. MAY NEED BRIEF IFR TEMPOS/AMENDMENTS AS CONVECTION EVOLVES. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT AKRON CANTON AREA SHOWING SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE OCCURRING. LATEST HRRR MODEL AND NAM MODEL SHOW SOME PATCHY SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...MORE CLOUDS ADVANCING IN WITH NEXT SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. STILL THINK SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL FORCING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE PLAYED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR PUSHES VERSUS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AND THIS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AS SUN BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH. SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST A BIT AS MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF A LATER ARRIVAL TIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS. ACTUALLY LOOKING AT DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION THREAT AS WE MAY NEED ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA BY THIS TIME. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. I DID NOT GO EXCESSIVE WITH THE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SPREADING OUT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR BASIN AVERAGES. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD WIND UP BEING OUR FIRST MUGGY NIGHT OF THE SUMMER SEASON AS LOWS HOVER AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER FRUSTRATING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES BUT APPARENTLY NOT ENOUGH TO GET THE FRONT VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SHORT WAVES OR SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH DAYS...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRY. I SUSPECT THAT TUESDAY WILL TRY TO DRY OUT AS THE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS A DECENT SHORT ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY COULD BE DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS WARMER THEN THE OTHER MODELS BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO CONTINUITY FOR THE TEMPERATURES. WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IT WILL BE A FIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST. WITH THE FLOW BEING LIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING IFR FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS. OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTUAL WIND WILL LIKELY END UP AS AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS MAY PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... WEAK RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS RECENTLY AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE REORIENTED AND EXPANDED POPS A LITTLE WITH THESE RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ AVIATION... 12Z TAFS... VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OK. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT SOME LOCATIONS AND/OR TIME PERIOD FOR MENTION IN TAF RIGHT NOW. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ DISCUSSION... SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NW PORTIONS OF OK EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NW OK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. AFTER TODAY THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE FA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THAT TIME. ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE NOT QUITE AS STRONG... ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 72 92 72 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 90 72 94 72 / 20 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 91 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 GAGE OK 88 71 94 73 / 20 20 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 90 74 94 73 / 20 10 0 0 DURANT OK 92 72 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
829 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS PUSHING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACNW COAST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES EAST. EXPECT SOME CONTINUED SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INLAND WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE PACNW COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS INDICATED IN THE GFS AND NAM FROM THE SISKIYOUS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON EXPECTED MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST HAS BROUGHT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -MND && .MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME CHOPPY AND WIND-DRIVEN. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TUESDAY...SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. -MND && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ ..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE COAST NOW...AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY GENERIC SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND DON`T EXPECT MANY STORMS TODAY BECAUSE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. TONIGHT...THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA. TOMORROW IS TRENDING LESS UNSTABLE PER RECENT MODEL RUNS...THOUGH STILL A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY. WE HAVE KEPT CONFIDENCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST VERSUS COVERAGE...SIMPLY BECAUSE THE PATTERN AND THE PARAMETERS THAT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT VERY ROBUST TOMORROW AND THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS ALIGN WITH THIS THINKING. SAID MORE SUCCINCTLY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE`LL HAVE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON MONDAY MIDLEVEL FLOW SWITCHES MORE WESTERLY AND THIS BRINGS IN DRIER AIR ALOFT...FURTHER REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING. WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NUDGES EASTWARD SOME...WARMING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SHOW A HEFTY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC WATERS. THE EC PEGS IT AT 561 DM. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IN A REGION OF NORTHERLY OR WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY KEEPING US DRY AND PREVENTING ANY HEATWAVES. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY DICTATE OUR WEATHER OUT PAST DAY 7. OF NOTE ARE SOME TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC THAT WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN OUR EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED...AND MAY WREAK HAVOC ON MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...WITH WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH..THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY COOLER BUT MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AND THE VALLEYS AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR IS ENTRENCHED. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA WILL BE IN THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WHERE FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATES LIFTED INDEX OF -3 IS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE THIS AREA IN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES..THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL CAPPING AND LIFTING OF THE PARCEL FROM THE CLOUD BASE ONLY GIVES MARGINAL INSTABILITY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY..A THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTHERN OREGON LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWERING NIGHT TIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. $$ CC/CC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
443 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE COAST NOW...AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY GENERIC SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND DON`T EXPECT MANY STORMS TODAY BECAUSE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. TONIGHT...THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA. TOMORROW IS TRENDING LESS UNSTABLE PER RECENT MODEL RUNS...THOUGH STILL A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY. WE HAVE KEPT CONFIDENCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST VERSUS COVERAGE...SIMPLY BECAUSE THE PATTERN AND THE PARAMETERS THAT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT VERY ROBUST TOMORROW AND THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS ALIGN WITH THIS THINKING. SAID MORE SUCCINCTLY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE`LL HAVE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON MONDAY MIDLEVEL FLOW SWITCHES MORE WESTERLY AND THIS BRINGS IN DRIER AIR ALOFT...FURTHER REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING. WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NUDGES EASTWARD SOME...WARMING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SHOW A HEFTY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC WATERS. THE EC PEGS IT AT 561 DM. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IN A REGION OF NORTHERLY OR WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY KEEPING US DRY AND PREVENTING ANY HEATWAVES. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY DICTATE OUR WEATHER OUT PAST DAY 7. OF NOTE ARE SOME TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC THAT WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN OUR EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED...AND MAY WREAK HAVOC ON MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST HAS BROUGHT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -MND && .MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME CHOPPY AND WIND-DRIVEN. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TUESDAY...SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. -MND && .FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...WITH WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH..THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY COOLER BUT MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AND THE VALLEYS AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR IS ENTRENCHED. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA WILL BE IN THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WHERE FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATES LIFTED INDEX OF -3 IS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE THIS AREA IN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES..THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL CAPPING AND LIFTING OF THE PARCEL FROM THE CLOUD BASE ONLY GIVES MARGINAL INSTABILITY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY..A THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTHERN OREGON LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWERING NIGHT TIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. $$ NSK/FB/MND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
1022 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INLAND TODAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWING PLENTY OF VORTICIES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW. THESE ARE ENHANCING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MUCH OF THIS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER VORT CENTER IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY BASIN. THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BRING HIGHS DOWN ABOUT 3-8 DEGREES. GRADIENTS ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. FOR THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 70S. 94 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 100-150 TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAINLY IMPACTING RDM BDN. WEST WINDS 15-25KT AT DLS. OTHERWISE WINDS 5-10KT TONIGHT AND 10-20KT FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SWING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL SEE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY END THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OREGON, AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH OF THESE SAME AREAS DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS GOING ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACNW SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA SOUTHWESTERLY. THUS VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. 90 LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONSENSUS IN MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR 127W SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST, THUS GIVING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO FORECAST AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING SINKING MOTION EAST OF THE CASCADES THUS YIELDING DRY ND STABLE CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM IN WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH PRODUCES WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES RESULTING IN SINKING AIR WHICH RESULTS IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. POLAN FIRE WEATHER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD GET A SIGH OF RELIEF AS THE WEATHER TRANSITIONS FROM THE HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS TO MORE COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE THE TIME OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SOME OF THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN DESCHUTES COUNTY PRODUCED ABOUT 60 STRIKES IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD ALSO RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES. AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. MANY STORMS WILL BRING UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH AND SOME ONE INCH OR MORE...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FIREFIGHTERS IN STEEP TERRAIN SHOULD WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS. WISTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 67 91 64 86 / 20 30 30 20 ALW 71 94 68 87 / 20 30 30 20 PSC 69 98 69 91 / 10 20 20 10 YKM 69 95 67 88 / 10 20 20 10 HRI 70 96 68 90 / 20 20 20 20 ELN 68 93 65 86 / 10 20 20 10 RDM 58 83 55 82 / 40 30 20 20 LGD 52 85 56 79 / 40 60 60 60 GCD 59 84 58 84 / 50 70 60 60 DLS 71 87 68 83 / 20 20 10 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611- 640>645. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506. WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ643-645. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON $$ 94
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
741 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RIDE FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SPECTACULAR DAWN PAINTING THE THIN CIRRUS DECK BRIGHT ORANGE AND SHADES OF PINK BENEATH THE BACKGROUND OF BLUE. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z GEFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD IMPLY INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CLOUDS VERY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE. AFTER SOME PATCHY LARGE STREAM/RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...EXPECT A NICE END TO THE WORK WEEK WEATHER-WISE WITH PLENTY OF SUN...WARM TEMPS AND JUST A LIGHT NWRLY BREEZE. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 14C SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE M80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES CREEPING NORTH AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE PENN TURNPIKE EARLY SAT MORNING. A BLEND OF THE OPER 06Z NAM...THE 03Z SREF...THE 00Z GEFS...AND HRRR POINT TWD CONDITIONS STAYING TOTALLY DRY TODAY AND SATURDAY NEAR...AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN /PERHAPS UP TO 0.10 OF AN INCH/ LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE COOL U40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 60S ON THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE SW 1/4 TO 1/3 OF PENN WILL SEE PERIODS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE CHC FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY SAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH ACRS WVA AND NRN VA. HIGH TEMPS SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY RESIDES WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA COAST...WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES DIMINISHED THE ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MORNING LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE ACROSS THE LAURELS WILL MIX OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WEST. SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. MON-NIGHT-TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH RESTRICTIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RIDE FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SPECTACULAR DAWN PAINTING THE THIN CIRRUS DECK BRIGHT ORANGE AND SHADES OF PINK BENEATH THE BACKGROUND OF BLUE. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z GEFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD IMPLY INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CLOUDS VERY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE. AFTER SOME PATCHY LARGE STREAM/RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...EXPECT A NICE END TO THE WORK WEEK WEATHER-WISE WITH PLENTY OF SUN...WARM TEMPS AND JUST A LIGHT NWRLY BREEZE. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 14C SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE M80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES CREEPING NORTH AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE PENN TURNPIKE EARLY SAT MORNING. A BLEND OF THE OPER 06Z NAM...THE 03Z SREF...THE 00Z GEFS...AND HRRR POINT TWD CONDITIONS STAYING TOTALLY DRY TODAY AND SATURDAY NEAR...AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN /PERHAPS UP TO 0.10 OF AN INCH/ LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE COOL U40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID 60S ON THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE SW 1/4 TO 1/3 OF PENN WILL SEE PERIODS OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE CHC FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY SAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH ACRS WVA AND NRN VA. HIGH TEMPS SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY RESIDES WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA COAST...WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES DIMINISHED THE ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOWER STRATUS. KBFD HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KJST TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL. OVER CENTRAL AIRFIELDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING IMPROVING AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WEST. SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. MON-NIGHT-TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH RESTRICTIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
810 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT. ONLY THUNDERSTORM ACTION IN BOX IS NORTH OF BISMARCK ND WITH A LONE SUPERCELL ALONG THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IS SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT 800 MB...WITH A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE. IN FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURPRISINGLY LOW...ONLY 1.13 INCHES. WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MOST OF THE CU FIELD IS GONE...AND ANYTHING TRYING TO GET GOING IS DYING QUICK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE EAST OF MOBRIDGE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST AT OR AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DOES GET GOING AFTER 03Z...BUT ITS BRIEF BEFORE TURNING SW AND STRONGEST FARTHER EAST NEAR THE MN BORDER. THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE BUT IF NOTHING IS GOING BY 03Z...MAY HAVE TO CANCEL IT. MINOR UPDATES MADE TO GRIDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 700MB READINGS ARE IN THE +8 TO +11C RANGE...WITH WARMEST READINGS OVERTOP THE DRY LINE BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70F...ENOUGH TO GENERATE OVER 4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WINDS THROUGH THE PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SPC SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. POOR OVERALL CONFIDENCE STEMS FORM THE LACK OF ANY UPPER WAVE...AND A LACK OF CONVECTION BEING GENERATED IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE WITH ONLY THE MOST RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR DEPICTING ANY STORMS. BEST ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK THE CAP...WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S. A MORE DISCERNIBLE WAVE IS EVIDENT FOR SUNDAY. THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...SO TEMPERATURES COULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 100. WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT FETCH OUT OF THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE REGION AND MORE SMOKE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON STORM MONDAY THANKS TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF S/W ENERGY AS A DECENT JET DIGS A TROF INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRETTY DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME DRYNESS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABR AND KATY THIS EVENING THROUGH 06Z. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 50 KTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ006>008-011- 018>023. MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...SCARLETT SHORT TERM...CONNELLY LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...SCARLETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .DISCUSSION... AT MID AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER AND A RISE IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND HRRR TRY TO SHOW A FEW CELLS MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL JUST LEAVE 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO WEATHER MENTIONED. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DECREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 58 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE A BRIEF BOUT WITH STRATUS OVER WACO AROUND SUNRISE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 94 76 96 77 / 5 5 5 5 5 WACO, TX 73 94 74 96 75 / 5 5 5 5 5 PARIS, TX 73 92 73 93 74 / 5 5 5 5 5 DENTON, TX 72 94 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 74 93 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5 DALLAS, TX 76 95 77 96 78 / 5 5 5 5 5 TERRELL, TX 74 93 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 76 93 74 94 75 / 5 5 5 5 5 TEMPLE, TX 72 93 73 95 73 / 5 5 5 5 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 93 73 95 73 / 5 5 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 30/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/ LOWER MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE NOW SCATTERED OUT AND RISEN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z SCT040 CUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL CURRENTLY AND WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE TO FEW AND RISE TOWARDS 060 THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 10- 15 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WIND SPREADS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CALMING TO NEAR 5 KT OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CIGS LOOKS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH SOME POSSIBLE POCKETS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS COULD LOWER TO 600-900 FR RANGE. SOME SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY RESTRICTS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON APPROACH/DEPARTURE IN THE 3-6 SM RANGE FROM 09-14Z. EXPECT A RETURN OF VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON A SIMILAR TIME FRAME TO TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... ONLY REAL MENTIONABLE FORECAST VARIABLE TODAY IS THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS SOMEWHAT OF A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THESE AREAS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PRESSURE FALLS AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT APPEARS A BIT OF A ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MAY BE IN PLAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 18Z TODAY. A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE MAXIMUM WAS DEPICTED IN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE RAP MODEL AND WITH GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING 15+ KT WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE...THOUGHT GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 30 MPH WAS VALID. THERE STILL EXISTS A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AS SOME SEE BREEZE CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES WITH APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING DOESNT BODE WELL FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT ISO TRW IN JUST IN CASE BUT BASICALLY...THE ONLY REASON ITS BEING MENTIONED IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO OTHER POP IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEP AND STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AND MEANDER AROUND THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS ATTEMPTING TO ADVERTISE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE ABANDONED THAT THINKING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE AREA. WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING DEL RIO...WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ASSUMING SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY. PWAT VALUES IN THE LONG RANGE GFS BOUNCE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING GETTING PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WITH POPS ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND RH VALUES DECREASING PROGRESSIVELY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SKEDADDLE...A FOCUS ON HOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE LATTER PART OF JULY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 92 74 94 73 / - - 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 91 73 93 73 / - 10 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 72 93 72 / - 10 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 72 94 73 / - 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 93 75 96 75 / - 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 73 93 73 / - - 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 72 94 72 / - - 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 73 93 72 / - 10 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 91 74 92 74 / - 20 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 91 74 94 73 / - - 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 94 73 / - - 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER INTO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST AT KDRT. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WE/LL MENTION A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35 AFTER 08Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... ONLY REAL MENTIONABLE FORECAST VARIABLE TODAY IS THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS SOMEWHAT OF A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THESE AREAS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PRESSURE FALLS AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT APPEARS A BIT OF A ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MAY BE IN PLAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 18Z TODAY. A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE MAXIMUM WAS DEPICTED IN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE RAP MODEL AND WITH GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING 15+ KT WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE...THOUGHT GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 30 MPH WAS VALID. THERE STILL EXISTS A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AS SOME SEE BREEZE CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES WITH APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING DOESNT BODE WELL FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT ISO TRW IN JUST IN CASE BUT BASICALLY...THE ONLY REASON ITS BEING MENTIONED IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO OTHER POP IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEP AND STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AND MEANDER AROUND THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS ATTEMPTING TO ADVERTISE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE ABANDONED THAT THINKING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE AREA. WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING DEL RIO...WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ASSUMING SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY. PWAT VALUES IN THE LONG RANGE GFS BOUNCE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING GETTING PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WITH POPS ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND RH VALUES DECREASING PROGRESSIVELY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SKEDADDLE...A FOCUS ON HOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE LATTER PART OF JULY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 73 92 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 72 93 / 0 - 10 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 71 90 72 94 / 0 - 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 74 93 75 96 / 0 - 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 90 73 93 / 0 - - 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 91 72 94 / 0 - - 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 74 91 74 92 / 10 - 20 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 91 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 94 / 0 - - 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
317 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... ONLY REAL MENTIONABLE FORECAST VARIABLE TODAY IS THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS SOMEWHAT OF A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THESE AREAS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PRESSURE FALLS AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT APPEARS A BIT OF A ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MAY BE IN PLAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 18Z TODAY. A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE MAXIMUM WAS DEPICTED IN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE RAP MODEL AND WITH GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING 15+ KT WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE...THOUGHT GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 30 MPH WAS VALID. THERE STILL EXISTS A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AS SOME SEE BREEZE CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES WITH APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING DOESNT BODE WELL FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT ISO TRW IN JUST IN CASE BUT BASICALLY...THE ONLY REASON ITS BEING MENTIONED IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO OTHER POP IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEP AND STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AND MEANDER AROUND THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS ATTEMPTING TO ADVERTISE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE ABANDONED THAT THINKING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE AREA. WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING DEL RIO...WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ASSUMING SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY. PWAT VALUES IN THE LONG RANGE GFS BOUNCE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING GETTING PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WITH POPS ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND RH VALUES DECREASING PROGRESSIVELY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SKEDADDLE...A FOCUS ON HOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE LATTER PART OF JULY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 73 92 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 72 93 / 0 - 10 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 71 90 72 94 / 0 - 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 74 93 75 96 / 0 - 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 90 73 93 / 0 - - 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 91 72 94 / 0 - - 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 74 91 74 92 / 10 - 20 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 91 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 94 / 0 - - 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 115 AM EDT FRIDAY... FOLLOWED THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WHICH DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS IN SE WV MAKE IT. THE HRRR KEEPS IT STREAMING EAST TO LYH BY 08Z...WHILE THE RAP DRIES IT OUT. WITH NIGHTTIME WESTERLY FLOW SOMETIMES CAN SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT NEAR LYH. NO OTHER CHANGES...BUT ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VERY WARM TEMPERATURES UNDER UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER GA...PUT A LID ON CONVECTION IN OUR CWA TODAY. CONVECTION TRIED TO CREEP INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT WOULD DIMINISH AS SOON AS IT TRIED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE AGAIN AT THIS HOUR...CONVECTION CREEPING INTO TAZEWELL AND SMYTH...AND SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS IT DOES SO. HRRR DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND NEITHER DO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WSW. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR DESTINED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT AND DRIFT ESE...AND COULD REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THUS...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THAT THINKING AND CURRENT CONVECTION...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS...TO MAINLY CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...BUT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY... COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FIRING CONVECTION AND LATEST AREA RADARS SHOW A LINE OF STORMS ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP. INSTABILITY IS MODEST BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECENT AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRIMARILY FOR WIND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA INTO THIS EVENING. WITH A WESTERN TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND AND A LOT OF FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY DO NOT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEST BUT POPS WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS SUMMER...THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION AND REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING INDICATIONS FOR ACTIVITY TO INITIATE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AND THEN SLIDE EASTWARD. THUS...RATHER THAN BLANKETING THE WHOLE AREA WITH POPS WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND HAVE A SLICE OF HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE MIDSECTION WITH LOWER POPS NORTH AND SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST SO HEAVY RAINERS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. WITH NO PUSH TO THE FRONT THERE WILL BE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MIDDLE 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY WITH LOWER 90S EAST TO LOW/MID 80S WEST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 210 PM EDT THURSDAY... WEAK FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN A WAVE TO THE SE AND ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED MCS TYPE FEATURE TO THE NW UNDER AN UPPER WAVE. PROGGED LIFT/CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK ESPCLY GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING UNTIL THE FEATURE TO THE NW ARRIVES...PERHAPS OVER THE NW BY DAYBREAK PER LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND NAM. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXCEPT RAMPING UP OVER THE FAR NW TO HIGH CHANCE LATE. RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY THEN TRAVERSE THE NORTH/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND ACT AS A WAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE STILL IFFY BUT MAY ACTUALLY REDUCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ELSW GIVEN LIKELY SURROUNDING LIGHTER SHRA EARLY ON AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS PUTS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THIRD WITH LOW CHANCES SOUTH PENDING TRACK OF THE POSSIBLE COMPLEX. OTRW THINKING MORE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS BELOW MOS AS MANY MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH BUMPING CLOSER TO THE UPPER 80S. SHOULD SEE A LULL SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE WAVE TO THE EAST SO GOING PC WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED POPS OVERALL. NEXT WAVE TO THE NW WILL START TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK TO THE NE AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST UNDER A PASSING SHEAR AXIS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A QUICK RETURN IN HIGHER PWATS SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY AND A FEW SHRA/TSRA BANDS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. OTRW HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH LOWS REMAINING ON THE WARM/MUGGY SIDE...MAINLY MID/UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY... GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT EASTERN 5H TROUGH WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND EXPANDS ALLOWING INCREASING NW FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD CAUSE THIS UPPER TROFFINESS TO AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN DIFFERENT IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS THE WETTEST IN KEEPING A SURFACE FRONT OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WHILE THE EARLIER ECMWF A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST CMC...APPEARS THE WETTER SCENARIO LIKELY BEST AT THIS POINT. THUS PLAN TO KEEP DAILY POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE FAR WEST MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST TUESDAY PER THE BOUNDARY NEARBY AND PERHAPS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SPILLING SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE INCLUDING SOME SPOTTY LIKELY POPS OTRW MID/HIGH CHANCES OVERALL. SHOTGUN TYPE CHANCE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PENDING LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND OLD OUTFLOW...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTRW MOSTLY PC...WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EXCEPT PERHAPS WARMER PIEDMONT WHERE LOW 90S POSSIBLE ESPCLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY... THROUGH THE MORNING A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT LWB/BLF...POSSIBLY HITTING ROANOKE BUT OVERALL CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR. WITH SOME BREAKS AFTER THE RAIN...FOG POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER LWB/BLF...THOUGH THINK IT WILL BE LIMITED TO IFR AT TIMES. MODELS TODAY WORK AN BAND OF STORMS FROM ERN KY INTO SRN VA...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE IT EXACTLY LINES UP. PREVIOUS FORECAST TAKES THE HIGHER THREAT FROM BLF-BCB/DAN. CONFIDENCE THIS EARLY IS THAT AT LEAST VCTS WILL BE OBSERVED NEAR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS LYH. WILL NOT THROW ANY TEMPO GROUPS THIS FAR OUT...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON SIGMETS AND RADAR/TAF TRENDS LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE VFR. THE CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH VFR EXPECTED...THOUGH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS AT AIRPORTS THAT GET RAIN LATER TODAY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER RESIDUAL AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO AREAS NORTH OF LYH/ROA BY 12Z SAT. THIS COULD HINDER FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE AT LWB...AND POSSIBLY BCB. OUTFLOW INTERACTING WITH RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO MORE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS AT TIMES...EXCEPT IF ANY HEAVIER RAIN MOVES ACROSS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS MONDAY...BUT TIMING OF SUCH SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE EVENTS THIS FAR OUT IS NOT PRACTICAL. BEST TO SAY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDING SQUARELY OVER THE CWA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING LWB/BCB/LYH. && .EQUIPMENT... THE HINTON WEST VA NOAA WEATHER RADIO...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MHZ...REMAINS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND A TECHNICIAN IS IN ROUTE TO THE SITE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RESTORATION OF SERVICE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB/WP SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...RAB/WP EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADA PROVINCES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE 09.12Z NAM AND 09.15Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION DEVELOPING AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 5000 FEET TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 07Z FRIDAY. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF FIRST IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER DPROG/DT. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE PERIOD AND EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY OUT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW PV ADVECTION/LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE IMPULSE AND FOCUS THE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE SLOWER PROGRESSION AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...PER DPROG/DT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WITH THE IMPULSE TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS/IMPULSE WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AT ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION. SUNDAY...IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IMPULSE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THE IMPULSE PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE NAM APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN...THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE...WHERE THE 09.12Z GFS BREAKS DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND THE 09.12Z ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DECENT LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND SURFACE FRONT/LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015 BACKED OFF ON VALLEY FOG AT KLSE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE RADAR SEEMS TO CONFIRM EARLIER FORECAST GUIDANCE...SHOWING WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KTS AT 2000 FT AGL. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED WINDS FROM THIS LEVEL EXTENDING DOWNWARD TO THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THESE STRONGER WINDS...COMBINED WITH A 10.04Z KLSE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF 8 DEGREES SHOULD LIMIT EXTENSIVE FOG FORMATION. AS A RESULT... WILL CONFINE LOWER MVFR VISIBILITY/IFR CEILINGS TO A TWO-HOUR TEMPO GROUP FROM 10.11Z TO 10.13Z...ALTHOUGH THIS STILL MAY BE TOO BULLISH. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/ SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KLSE/KRST THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
540 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST WYO. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AM. LLVL MOISTURE IS MODEST...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG PER THE LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 03Z...AT WHICH POINT THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHUT THINGS OFF. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANYTHING SEVERE TODAY WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS IN THE DRIER SFC ENVIRONMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY TO BE FREE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW...BUT H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS FROM THE GFS/NAM/ECM ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS SOME LIGHT QPF SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME RECENTLY WITH THE MOIST LLVL ENVIRONMENT AND SMALL-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...SO HONESTLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS NEED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A TSTM OR TWO ON THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTN. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ALOFT THOUGH...SO CAPPING WILL PLAY A ROLE. SHOULD BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH H7 TEMPS +14 TO +16 C. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR GIVEN THAT SMALL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF THESE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE NUMERICAL MODELS TO DETERMINE WITH GREAT ACCURACY. BY MID NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE IN THE WEEK BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND... BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COOL SHOT OF AIR FOR MID JULY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER 01Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE MON INTO TUE. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1112 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL WY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND OUT OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOW PRODUCING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES INTO THE PLAINS. CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW BUT SHOULD AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING BACK MOST OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. ON THE RADAR...WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER (MCV). EXPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAINS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SIDNEY AREA BY DAYBREAK. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE MVC TRANSITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES BY LATE MORNING AS THAT NEXT PIECE OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS OUT THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES RUNNING AROUND 2200 J/KG...WHEREAS THE ETA IS LESS SO WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG. CURRENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR TODAY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CANT REALLY ARGUE WITH THIS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PEGGING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. FORTUNATELY THE SHEAR PROFILES DON`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY IN THE EASTERN ZONES RUNNING LESS THAN 50 M2/S2...SO MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY WOULD BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL. MOST OF ANY STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 03Z AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE DRYSLOT (AS SEEN IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) SLIPS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST SHIFTING THE MAIN TRACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE ONLY POPS WE WILL CARRY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INT THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW EVEN THERE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +14 TO +16C. GOING TO BE A WARM AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WENT MORE WITH THE HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. PROBABLY COULD HAVE WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS 700MB WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO BE STRONG. GFS SHOWING 30 TO 35KTS OF WESTERLY WINDS...SO DO BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FROM DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS STAY UP FOR MONDAY AS WELL. DID GO HIGHER THAN BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE ON MONDAY LOWS AS WELL WITH WESTERLY 850MB WINDS OF 20-25KTS AT 12Z MONDAY KEEPING A WELL MIXED LOW LAYER. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE WEST OF CHEYENNE. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY DRY THE AREA OUT FOR THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR TIMING OF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLAR...KCYS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. BAND OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO KLAR ALREADY. THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE THE AREA THAT WILL EXPAND LATE && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...THEN A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WINDY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN WITH DRY AND WINDIER CONDITIONS AS FUELS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SML SHORT TERM...JG LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
510 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING BACK MOST OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. ON THE RADAR...WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER (MCV). EXPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAINS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SIDNEY AREA BY DAYBREAK. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE MVC TRANSITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WE ARE SEEING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES BY LATE MORNING AS THAT NEXT PIECE OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS OUT THE EAST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES RUNNING AROUND 2200 J/KG...WHEREAS THE ETA IS LESS SO WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG. CURRENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR TODAY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CANT REALLY ARGUE WITH THIS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PEGGING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. FORTUNATELY THE SHEAR PROFILES DON`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY IN THE EASTERN ZONES RUNNING LESS THAN 50 M2/S2...SO MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY WOULD BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL. MOST OF ANY STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 03Z AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE DRYSLOT (AS SEEN IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) SLIPS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST SHIFTING THE MAIN TRACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE ONLY POPS WE WILL CARRY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INT THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW EVEN THERE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +14 TO +16C. GOING TO BE A WARM AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WENT MORE WITH THE HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. PROBABLY COULD HAVE WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS 700MB WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO BE STRONG. GFS SHOWING 30 TO 35KTS OF WESTERLY WINDS...SO DO BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FROM DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS STAY UP FOR MONDAY AS WELL. DID GO HIGHER THAN BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE ON MONDAY LOWS AS WELL WITH WESTERLY 850MB WINDS OF 20-25KTS AT 12Z MONDAY KEEPING A WELL MIXED LOW LAYER. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE WEST OF CHEYENNE. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY DRY THE AREA OUT FOR THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR TIMING OF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLAR...KCYS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. BAND OF SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT INTO KLAR ALREADY. THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE THE AREA THAT WILL EXPAND LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...THEN A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WINDY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN WITH DRY AND WINDIER CONDITIONS AS FUELS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JG LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND AVIATION UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NV THIS EVENING AND THE 00Z NAM/GFS PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL AND KEEP CONVECTION GOING A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE HRRR HANGS ONTO IT TIL MORNING ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FLOW WAS BACKING SLIGHTLY WHICH WAS ALLOWING STORMS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGINIA RANGE. LIGHTNING WAS NOTED FROM THE NWS OFFICE TO THE SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING INCLUDE SPREADING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WESTWARD JUST A BIT BUT KEEPING IT EAST OF KRNO-KCXP. WE ALSO KEPT SOME SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT UNTIL 09Z FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE AND REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS FAR NORTH. HOHMANN && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ SYNOPSIS... DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM... NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DOWN TO THE SIERRA CREST OF MONO COUNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THE HRRR AND NAM ARE FAVORING SOME CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS AT LEAST A 15% COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN PERSHING COUNTY. THEN, DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY ONWARD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVER-CONVECTING MONDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY, BUT MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM; KEPT CHANCES AROUND 10%. THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. BOYD LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE PATTERN IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TO START THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA VALLEYS NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES EACH DAY WITH MAINLY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW 15% FOR THESE AREAS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY STILL IS SIZABLE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ATTEMPT A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA IN MORE OF A TROUGH PATTERN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND IN THE GFS WHILE THE EC DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS IS ALMOST THE REVERSE OF WHAT EACH MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING IN THEIR RESPECTIVE LAST FEW CYCLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ENSEMBLES SPREADS ARE LARGE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. FUENTES AVIATION... ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z MAINLY FOR AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF KNFL, BUT OVERALL AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. FOR SUNDAY, ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A FALLON-SUSANVILLE LINE BUT THE MAIN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS 20- 25 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY BTWN 21Z-04Z. TF && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AN UPR HIGH CENTER IS OVR ERN TX TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVR TX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MSTR OVR THE AREA TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TIED TO THE HIGHER TRRN... INCLUDING THE PALMER DVD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE OUT OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR BACA AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE MSTR WL STILL BE LIMITED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MONDAY...DURING THE DAY THE NORTHWEST US TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST...AND MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE LOW END SCATTERED TO ISOLATED POPS GOING AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE CWA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S TO 70S MOUNTAINS. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED SOUTH SOME...AND THE MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SUBTROPICS WILL STILL BE OVER THE CWA. SO...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS READINGS. WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BUT IT SHOULD BE CENTERED FAR TO OUR NORTH. STILL...ANOTHER SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME FORCING ALOFT. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SOME TO THE WEST...AND THE ROCKIES WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW AND A LITTLE MORE SETTLED WEATHER. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY. OF COURSE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TO IMPACT BURN SCARS...SO THAT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. -TLM- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EVEN THE HI-RE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. CORRECTED... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BDL && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS ARE PROGGING WINDS AOB 5KT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH A NE DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO BACK WEST BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE BEST TIME FOR STORMS AFTER 20Z. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40 ATLANTA 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 30 BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 40 20 40 50 CARTERSVILLE 92 71 92 73 / 30 20 30 30 COLUMBUS 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20 GAINESVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 30 MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 20 ROME 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 30 30 PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 92 74 / 30 20 40 20 VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OF THE REGION, WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE LONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE NOTED AS INSTABILITY WANES AND AS A SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED TO DRIVE THE STORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY 02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST-CENTRAL IL TO SOUTHEAST IL...WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES AS OF 05Z. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE KSPI MAY BE AFFECTED NEXT FEW HOURS BY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY KPIA- KBMI-KCMI. THIS FOG WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VSBY THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES FROM NW. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS STARTING 00Z FOR POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS BUT STRONG...GUSTY...VARIABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>043-047-048. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY KICKED IN ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING AND TODAY. MOST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON UNDER THE SLIGHT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...BENDING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE EASTERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OBSERVED SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 1PM CDT SPRAWLED OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEND OUTFLOWS AND SOME UPSHEAR LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS CLOSE TO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS FOR PARTS OF PIKE...WARRICK AND SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS INDIANAPOLIS...DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE IN SPACE AND TIME. IT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...ADDED A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VERY ROBUST CAPE FOR UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR INITIATION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE INVERSION IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND POSSIBLY A MICROBURST OR TWO) WITH THIS REGIME IN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SUNDAY. THE ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE ANY DELAY IN REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SURFACE OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LEFT OVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL EXPAND WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS DEFINITELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEANED CLOSER TO THE 3KM HRRR FOR THE EXTREMELY SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...BLENDING TOWARD THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS AND WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF REGARDING ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE AREA...DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TUE. PCPN CHANCES (HIGHEST IN THE SERN QUADRANT) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING WILL WANE TUE NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW GOES SLIGHTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC...LEAVING WED DRY. BY MIDDAY THU...A SECOND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR WEST (PARTS OF SERN MO) CLOSER TO A DOMINANT SRN CONUS RIDGE. SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MINOR ENERGY IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS EVENT SHOULD END THU NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND THE ANTI- CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AGAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE MARK IN SERN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN 09-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KEVV/KOWB TSRA POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z AOB 6 KNOTS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR 80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT 500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST E AT AROUND 0.25IN/. BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH THE RETURN OF MORE HUMID LLVL AIR OVER MAINLY WRN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MRNG AT IWD AND CMX. BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE RETURN OF THE MOISTER AIR AND DAYTIME HEATING WL ALSO CAUSE SOME SHRA AND TS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF SITES AS EARLY AS MID MRNG AT IWD. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LO ON PINPOINTING WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHRA WL OCCUR TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BRIEFLY UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHRA...THE VFR WX SHOULD PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL DRY OUT BY MID WEEK...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 I HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. I EXPUNGED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE I-94 AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IT SEEMS CLEAR TO ME BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN THE IR IMAGE LOOPS...RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS...AND RECENT RAP MODEL DATA THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MOST WE WOULD SEE HERE IS SHOWERS FROM A MID CLOUD DECK AND THAT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...NEARLY ALL OF THAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. MOSTLY WE WILL BE SEEING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THE STEADIEST RAINS AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FIRST SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD HUG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH INTO SW MI MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE WAVE SLOWLY EXITING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY... EXPECT WE WILL SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF PCPN COVERAGE AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER STILL CAN/T RULE A FEW ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR BY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE APPEARS MORE POTENT THEN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW BRINGS THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND WE SHOULD THEREFORE GET WITHIN THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE STORM PATH. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK MARGINAL AS THE JET DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG. SO AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED ON MONDAY...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OTHERWISE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON TUESDAY WHILE THE LESS FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON SB CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS. THE MAIN RISK APPEARS TO EAST OF HWY 131 WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. A LAKE SHADOW MAY KEEP AREAS WEST OF HWY 131 DRY ON TUESDAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY DELIVERS A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRY TREND MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY AS WELL BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING BACK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR THAN THE ECMWF. LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS H8 TEMPS ABOVE 20C ARRIVING NEXT SATURDAY WHICH MAY SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LIMITED IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY MID CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT WITH CIGS AROUND 10-12K FT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME MVFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CHICAGO TO MADISON WI CORRIDOR AT 06Z WILL IMPACT THE KAZO AND KBTL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND LASTING UNTIL 16-18Z THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOME VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL ALSO KICK IN AT KMKG THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THEN ONCE THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS DONE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 OTHER THEN THE RISK OF STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE LAKE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THEN...THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. STREAMFLOW REMAINS HIGH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...NJJ HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHLAND. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ZONES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND STATIONS ARE STARTING TO REPORT VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONSAS DEW POINTS ARE CREEPING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH. ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN THIS PATTERN. THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE KBRD AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NE MINNESOTA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 63 79 62 72 / 70 50 40 30 INL 64 83 62 77 / 40 50 40 20 BRD 65 87 65 80 / 70 40 40 40 HYR 66 82 61 75 / 60 50 50 20 ASX 63 80 58 71 / 60 50 50 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GRANING SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH. ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE IN THIS PATTERN. THE MAIN CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE KBRD AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NE MINNESOTA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 63 79 62 72 / 70 50 40 30 INL 64 83 62 77 / 40 50 40 20 BRD 65 87 65 80 / 70 40 40 40 HYR 66 82 61 75 / 60 50 50 20 ASX 63 80 58 71 / 60 50 50 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW- MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY. GLASS .LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OR OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDENSDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLASS && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS LIKELY SLID SOUTH WITH THE COLD POOL GENERATED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS HAVE SAGGED SOUTH AND WEST INTO NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVE. TREND IS A SLOW SHRINKING AND THERE IS AND LESS REDEVELPMENT NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. ONCE THIS ENDS LITTLE EXPECTED OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME FOG IN QUINCY. MODELS PUSH FRONT FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY AND IF THIS HOLDS STORMS SUNDAY SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: STORMS TOO CLOSE SO WILL PUT IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. TREND HAS THE AREA SHRINKING AND DYING SO IT WILL BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JPK && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO- JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL- RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL- ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
350 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES IN BETWEEN. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS... CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST INACTIVE DAY. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST. THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE -SHRA/TSRA LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH TO SOME LIGHT RAIN THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY -TSRA OR TWO OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN VERY SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR 15KTS...AND FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUYER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 87 59 88 60 / 50 30 20 20 DULCE........................... 79 51 80 50 / 30 30 30 30 CUBA............................ 79 52 79 53 / 50 30 30 30 GALLUP.......................... 81 52 83 54 / 50 40 40 30 EL MORRO........................ 77 50 80 52 / 70 40 50 30 GRANTS.......................... 80 52 83 54 / 60 30 30 30 QUEMADO......................... 79 54 80 55 / 70 30 50 30 GLENWOOD........................ 86 56 87 57 / 50 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 77 49 78 48 / 40 30 40 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 59 82 59 / 50 30 40 30 PECOS........................... 81 57 82 57 / 30 30 20 20 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 53 76 52 / 40 30 40 30 RED RIVER....................... 70 43 68 43 / 40 40 50 40 ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 49 71 49 / 40 40 50 40 TAOS............................ 81 52 82 52 / 20 30 30 30 MORA............................ 78 54 78 53 / 40 30 30 30 ESPANOLA........................ 86 56 88 57 / 20 30 30 20 SANTA FE........................ 82 58 85 60 / 20 20 20 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 57 88 59 / 20 20 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 63 88 65 / 30 20 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 65 90 67 / 30 20 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 92 65 / 30 20 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 62 91 66 / 30 20 10 20 LOS LUNAS....................... 89 62 90 65 / 30 20 10 10 RIO RANCHO...................... 88 64 91 65 / 30 20 20 20 SOCORRO......................... 89 63 90 63 / 30 20 20 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 58 85 59 / 40 30 20 20 TIJERAS......................... 85 59 87 60 / 40 30 10 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 54 87 54 / 30 20 10 10 CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 58 85 58 / 40 20 10 10 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 58 84 60 / 30 20 10 10 CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 89 63 / 30 20 10 10 RUIDOSO......................... 79 60 81 59 / 40 20 20 10 CAPULIN......................... 86 59 86 58 / 10 20 10 20 RATON........................... 88 57 88 56 / 5 20 10 20 SPRINGER........................ 88 58 88 58 / 5 20 10 10 LAS VEGAS....................... 84 56 84 55 / 20 20 20 10 CLAYTON......................... 95 65 95 63 / 0 10 5 10 ROY............................. 88 62 89 61 / 5 10 10 10 CONCHAS......................... 96 67 98 67 / 5 10 5 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 94 66 95 66 / 10 10 10 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 98 68 100 68 / 0 5 5 5 CLOVIS.......................... 93 65 96 66 / 0 5 0 5 PORTALES........................ 94 66 96 66 / 0 5 0 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 93 67 96 67 / 5 5 5 5 ROSWELL......................... 97 67 100 67 / 0 5 0 5 PICACHO......................... 89 62 91 62 / 20 10 10 5 ELK............................. 82 60 85 60 / 20 10 20 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE -SHRA/TSRA LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH TO SOME LIGHT RAIN THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY -TSRA OR TWO OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN VERY SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR 15KTS...AND FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015... .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON... FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS AND SHUTS DOWN CHANCES THERE. A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW...AND HOLD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONLY THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... A MONSOON MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS. TODAY`S ROUND OF STORMS FAVORS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WHERE SHEAR IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CROP OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SOCORRO... BELEN AND ALBUQUERQUE. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO BETWEEN 23-01Z. LOOKING MORE LIKE A GOOD BET HERE IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO WITH A LAST LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 3 PM MDT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DIFFERENT THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH... CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES... MAINLY EAST...AND A FOCUSING OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING-IN. SO...EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SLOWER MOTION TO TILT THE THREAT TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND BACK DOWN MON/TUE AS THE UPPER HIGH BACKS OFF TO THE EAST A BIT...ALLOWING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO TILT BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA... LEAVING-OUT ONLY THE SOUTHEAST IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. A FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT THE IDEAL PLUME POSITIONING WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUR FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD CLIMO FOR FRI/SAT. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DOWN TREND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...WITH LESS ACTIVITY EAST CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT...FINALLY REACHING ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WHILE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...WITH AREAS OF 5 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. VENTILATION TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON SURGE FROM MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAVORED THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES TODAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES. AS THE UPPER CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE PLUME WILL BE NUDGED TO THE WEST AS WELL SUCH THAT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE WETTING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THERE ON MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY COULD ALSO HELP EXTEND THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH COULD WEAKEN/FLATTEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOME ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MONSOON PLUME COULD REPOSITION OVER NEW MEXICO...THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME. 05 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
231 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A A QUICK GLANCE AT THE CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN MCS IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION SO I SLIGHTLY REDUCED OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS FORECASTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR MASS TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SO I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY... MILD MID-JULY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED 500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800 AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV 4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO THE HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER CANADA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST EVENING. EXPECTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM 13Z-15Z SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 00Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTING TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOCALLY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK. 12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER. 00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 109 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A A QUICK GLANCE AT THE CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN MCS IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION SO I SLIGHTLY REDUCED OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS FORECASTING RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT THE DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR MASS TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SO I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY... MILD MID-JULY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER (GREATEST NORTH, LARGELY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS). STILL SOME LEFTOVER MODEST INSTABILITY VALUES WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION REMAINS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY NORTH OF OTTAWA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH STILL SHOWS SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY FROM MONTPELIER NORTHWARD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONED TO JUST SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AND PRESENT TEMPS, I OPTED TO RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED 500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800 AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV 4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO THE HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECK REMAININ IN PLACE. WITH CLOUD COVER NOT FORECASTING FOG FORMATION AT TAF SITES. WEAK FRONT TO NORTH FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN ONTARIO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. LATEST DATA CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHEAST NY AND VERMONT CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT TAF SITES DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN SITES KSLK/KMPV, HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW OF HITTING INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE AND IN OUTER PERIOD OF TAF CYCLE SO OPTED TO KEEP THEM OUT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHWEST BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER SUNRISE. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK. 12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER. 00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD. THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE 08Z. AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90 FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND MENTION IN THE WX STORY. TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ALL SITES VFR EXCEPT KDVL...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE SOME VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE STORM WHICH WILL BE DONE BY 07Z OR SO. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT WHICH TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED IS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WILL AMEND FOR VCTS IF NEEDED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...DK/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE CONVECTIVE INDUCING ENVIRONMENT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID SUMMER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE FIRST FEATURE TO TRACK TODAY IS AN AXIS DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEATURE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL IN THE HRRR INITIALIZATION WHICH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING AS IT ENTERS THE CWA...BUT THIS OLDER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE OF A FACTOR ALONG THE TUG FORK VALLEY AND WEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL SEE SORT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. MAY NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE KANAWHA VALLEY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A NIGHT TIME MCS. STEERING FLOWS TRY TO TAKE THIS FURTHER TO OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...BUT LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFTERNOON MAY DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC SETTING TONIGHT. SPC CARRIES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BELIEF IS THAT PKB AND HTS WILL GET INTO TOO MUCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OFF THE MCS TO THE NORTHWEST TO GET INTO ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR MIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HAVE CRW...CKB...AND EKN AT IFR OR WORSE. CONVECTION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT. ONLY THUNDERSTORM ACTION IN BOX IS NORTH OF BISMARCK ND WITH A LONE SUPERCELL ALONG THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IS SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT 800 MB...WITH A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE. IN FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURPRISINGLY LOW...ONLY 1.13 INCHES. WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MOST OF THE CU FIELD IS GONE...AND ANYTHING TRYING TO GET GOING IS DYING QUICK. STILL CANT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE EAST OF MOBRIDGE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST AT OR AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DOES GET GOING AFTER 03Z...BUT ITS BRIEF BEFORE TURNING SW AND STRONGEST FARTHER EAST NEAR THE MN BORDER. THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE BUT IF NOTHING IS GOING BY 03Z...MAY HAVE TO CANCEL IT. MINOR UPDATES MADE TO GRIDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 700MB READINGS ARE IN THE +8 TO +11C RANGE...WITH WARMEST READINGS OVERTOP THE DRY LINE BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70F...ENOUGH TO GENERATE OVER 4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WINDS THROUGH THE PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SPC SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. POOR OVERALL CONFIDENCE STEMS FORM THE LACK OF ANY UPPER WAVE...AND A LACK OF CONVECTION BEING GENERATED IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE WITH ONLY THE MOST RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR DEPICTING ANY STORMS. BEST ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK THE CAP...WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S. A MORE DISCERNIBLE WAVE IS EVIDENT FOR SUNDAY. THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...SO TEMPERATURES COULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 100. WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT FETCH OUT OF THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE REGION AND MORE SMOKE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON STORM MONDAY THANKS TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF S/W ENERGY AS A DECENT JET DIGS A TROF INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRETTY DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME DRYNESS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING KATY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-011-018>023. MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...MOHR SHORT TERM...CONNELLY LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE CHANCES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES ACROSS TONIGHT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS OF 12.0430Z...IFR STRATUS DECK NOW ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN IL EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...IMPACTING KLSE/KRST BY 12.08Z TO 12.10Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH MIST. SUB 1 SM VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 12.06Z TAFS. MULTIPLE UPDATES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS/MIST/FOG EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP 1000 TO 1200 FT AGL BKN LAYER IN PLACE UNTIL 12.17Z TO 12.18Z. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW ON TIMING... SO WILL BEGIN BY INTRODUCING VCTS/BKN035CB FROM 13.03Z AT KRST TO 13.04Z AT KLSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MINOR COOLING NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS CHARACTERIZED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ARC OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO NWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA...THEN NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE... DARKENING FEATURE OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REPRESENTS A VORT MAX THAT VARIOUS 12/00Z MODELS MOVE NWD ADJACENT THE ERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT...AND A FAVORABLE GENERALLY SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THE CHANCES FOR WESTWARD EXPANSION OF SHOWER/TSTMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR AROUND 16Z- 17Z TODAY EITHER NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY...OR FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS ACROSS SWRN COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE NWWD AND ENCROACH UPON THE TUCSON METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...POPS WERE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED MODESTLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON NWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS FROM 12/21Z TO 13/03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY...HOWEVER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF SHOWER-AND-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR MON-WED MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WEAK SWLY MID- LEVEL STEERING FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ TSTMS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRI WILL HAVE SIMILAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS BY FRI THOUGH APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY SAT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS FORECAST AREA FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES. THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND FURTHER WWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS...AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE NEXT SAT. IF THERE IS CONTINUED CONTINUITY AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS WILL LIKELY BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT. AS AN ASIDE...SUN IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAS RESULTED IN DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THRU THURSDAY...THEN SOME MINOR COOLING IS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENHANCED NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALIZED. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z. ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF KTUS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA FROM KTUS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/ INTERNATIONAL BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35-45 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY GENERATE BLDU/S REDUCING VSBYS TO 1SM NW OF KTUS BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/03Z. CLOUD DECKS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 6-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EVEN THE HI-RE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. CORRECTED... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BDL && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL NOT UPGRADE THE PROB GROUP TO A TEMPO AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS 5KT OR BELOW. THE DIRECTION MAY SWITCH TO THE NE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE WEST DURING MIXING MONDAY MORNING. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... LOW TO MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 95 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40 ATLANTA 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 40 30 BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 40 20 40 50 CARTERSVILLE 92 71 92 73 / 30 20 30 30 COLUMBUS 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 40 20 GAINESVILLE 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 30 MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 20 40 20 ROME 92 72 93 74 / 30 20 30 30 PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 92 74 / 30 20 40 20 VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 20 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1153 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 IN MANY SPOTS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. WARM...HUMID AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A FEW DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 1150 AM...CU ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THROUGH SW MAINE...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THE MID-COAST. UPDATED GRIDS FOR MOST RECENT OBS AND TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHC AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTM. 840 AM...CURRENT SATL PIC AND RADAR SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MAINE AS BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS AND HAVE RAISED MORNING HOURLY TEMPS AT BIT WHICH SHOULD RISE QUICKLY-- ALTHOUGH HAVEN`T CHANGED MAXES FOR DAY. 640 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST 10Z MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...A WARM OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWST MAINE FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH WITH DRIER LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ZONES...WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RELEGATED TO A HUMID AIRMASS. R OR TSTM IN SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASING MAKING FOR A STICK NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S SOUTH TO 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND LAKES REGION NORTHWARD TO VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AN ONSHORE WIND WILL TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN AS HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE TO BUILD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB PATTERN FEATURES A DECENT TROUGH ROTATING EWD AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD TUESDAY AND WED BUT WILL ALSO BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DEFINITELY LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BENEATH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WILL SEE FLOW BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE ONSHORE AS TROUGH APPROACHES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHRA BUT MORE LIKELY WILL SE STRATUS/FOG AND EVEN SOME DZ MOVE ONSHORE MON NIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUE MORNING. BY TUE AFTERNOON...MID-UPPER FLOW SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SW...AND THE THREAT FOR TSRA WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA...DESPITE THE PAUCITY OF QPF IN THE 00Z EURO. HIGHS TUE WILL REACH 80-85 INLAND...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK IN THE 70S COASTAL AREAS....AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FROPA COULD GET BACK INTO THE 80S ON WED. THE LESS HUMID AIR MOVES IN FOR THU AND FRI...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. GFS WANT TO BRING PRECIP IN BY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE EURO IS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT LOCAL IFR VCNTY OF KLEB AND KHIE IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. WIDELY SCT MVFR TODAY AND MONDAY IN -SHRA AND -TSRA. LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AT LEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE NIGHT INTO WED COULD BRING SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR....WITH VFR WED NIGHT INTO THU. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BLO SCA LVLS MON NIGHT THRU THU. SOME SWELL FORM OFFSHORE SYSTEM COULD PUSH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
605 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 605 AM UPDATE...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITED MAINE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AND ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE TRYING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ANY SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME LIFT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL SETTLE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WITH A GUSTY WIND. DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. THE DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND COULD COME CLOSE TO 90F ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. MUCH COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH BUILD OVER THE AREA. A BIT OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 50S IN THE BANGOR AREA UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, WARM FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AND MUGGY NIGHT; MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH JUST A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY; SB CAPES WILL RUN 200-600 J/KG, ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE OWING TO STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. NORTHERN MAINE WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, TAKING THE FRONT AND THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS RIDGE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED, WHICH RESULTED IN CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND FOR SATURDAY. DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS EITHER, WHICH GAVE HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH/80S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH/60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KPQI AND KHUL TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY IN FOG. BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR IN FOG TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE; MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. VFR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RESUMES MID-TO-LATE WEEK. && .CLIMATE...WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES AT BANGOR TODAY. IF THE TEMPERATURE WERE TO HIT 90 DEGREES IT WOULD BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY AT BANGOR SINCE JULY 19, 2013. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT VERY SLOWLY CREEPS NE THRU PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TVC OB RECENTLY AND THE FKS OB EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAVE SEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. SUSPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" RETURNS (IF YOU CAN CALL THEM THAT). OVERALL...CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL FITTING THE BILL FOR THIS AREA OF DIMINISHING PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BOOSTS CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT/ ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ENJOY! UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF 1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET. PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER (REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE. BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES... SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND. PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT. BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40 DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS. TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE. (7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. (7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE REGION. SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TVC TERMINAL SITE THROUGH 15Z WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. TONIGHT...LARGELY VFR PERSISTS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS...LIGHT AND FLOPPY THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TO LAKE BREEZES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MLR NEAR TERM...ADAM SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
803 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR 80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT 500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST E AT AROUND 0.25IN/. BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE RETURN OF THE MOISTER AIR AND DAYTIME HEATING WILLCAUSE SOME SHRA AND TS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF SITES AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MRNG AT IWD. SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON PINPOINTING WHERE AND WHEN THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BRIEFLY UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHRA OR TSRA...THE VFR WX SHOULD PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF 1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET. PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER (REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE. BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES... SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND. PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT. BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40 DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS. TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE. (7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. (7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IMPACTING THE REGION. SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TVC TERMINAL SITE THROUGH 15Z WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. TONIGHT...LARGELY VFR PERSISTS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS...LIGHT AND FLOPPY THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TO LAKE BREEZES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AGAIN TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ADAM NEAR TERM...ADAM SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW- MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY. GLASS .LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OR OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDENSDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLASS && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BROWNING && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO- JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL- RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL- ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PUSHES EAST...FOLLOWING THE LATEST NAM. THE GFS HAS A DRIER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EXCEPT FOR JUST THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT YET HAVE BACKING FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TWEAK ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS SOLID. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT THE FORT PECK DAM HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO ONLY GO UP FROM THERE TO EXCEED 20 MPH. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES IN BETWEEN. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO THE EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ALONG WEST COAST HOLDING PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z WRN AND NRN HIGHER TERRAIN THEN TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NE HIGHLANDS PRIOR TO 13/00Z. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. ISOLD STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. EAST CENTRAL/SE NM TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS CORRECT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015... .SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST INACTIVE DAY. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST. THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 CONVECTION CLOSE TO EXITING THE FAR EAST AND WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. PULLED POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD. THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE 08Z. AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90 FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND MENTION IN THE WX STORY. TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 KTVF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THINK STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE KBJI AREA SO KEPT A MENTION OUT FROM THERE. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL GET THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A FEW MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING IN SOUTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR KFAR. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR IN THE 6000-10000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER RANGE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD. THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE 08Z. AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90 FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND MENTION IN THE WX STORY. TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 KTVF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THINK STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE KBJI AREA SO KEPT A MENTION OUT FROM THERE. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL GET THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A FEW MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING IN SOUTHEASTERN ND NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR KFAR. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE OUT OF THE MORE NORTHERN SITES FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR IN THE 6000-10000 FT OR EVEN HIGHER RANGE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
649 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... DECAYING MCS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. NORTHERN PORTION SHOULD FALL APART FAIRLY QUICKLY AND IS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD TOP WARMING...BUT KEEP POPS COMING INTO THE TRI STATE AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING INITIATION BOUNDARIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OUTFLOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE CONVECTIVE INDUCING ENVIRONMENT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID SUMMER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE FIRST FEATURE TO TRACK TODAY IS AN AXIS DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEATURE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL IN THE HRRR INITIALIZATION WHICH IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME OR SO ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE GOING AS IT ENTERS THE CWA...BUT THIS OLDER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE OF A FACTOR ALONG THE TUG FORK VALLEY AND WEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...SO WILL SEE SORT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. MAY NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE KANAWHA VALLEY UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A NIGHT TIME MCS. STEERING FLOWS TRY TO TAKE THIS FURTHER TO OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...BUT LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFTERNOON MAY DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC SETTING TONIGHT. SPC CARRIES THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOG WILL LIFT...BUT HAS HUNG ON DESPITE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. AFTER THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION CAN FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL VARY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS LIKELY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE CHANCES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES ACROSS TONIGHT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A PROBLEMATIC TAF PERIOD. FIRST OFF IS THE LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK AND AREAS OF BR THAT HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK IS IN/UNDER A RATHER STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925MB...WHICH WILL MAKE THE LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTENT AND TOUGH TO GET RID OF. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WARMING ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA...EXTENDED MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS THRU THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF SCT LOWER CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST ON THIS OCCURRING. A COMPLEX OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. REASONABLE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE TSRA COMPLEX ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIER/ STRONGER OF THE TSRA WILL PASS. LEFT BOTH TAF SITES WITH A 4HR PERIOD OF VCTS/CB CENTERED ON 05-06Z FOR NOW. ONCE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS TRACK/TIMING CAN BE ESTABLISHED...TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA COMPLEX SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEK... WILL LIKELY SPREAD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANY AREAS NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AZ HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OVER EASTERN AZ. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL HAS PROVEN THE MOST ACCURATE SO FAR...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON FORECAST TO SPREAD AND DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. THE HRRR DOES RESPOND TO THIS CONVECTION BY FORECASTING A DISTINCT NORTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...20 PERHAPS 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS...TO MOVE THROUGH CASA GRANDE AND COOLIDGE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM...AND INTO THE PHOENIX EAST VALLEY BY 8 PM. AREAS OF DUST ARE POSSIBLE. THE HRRR ONLY PRODUCES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY...INCLUDING PHOENIX. AS A RESULT OF THIS EVENING PASSING OUTFLOWS...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID DAY. IT MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MONDAY TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND LESS HUMID OVER OUR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTWHEST AZ TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STILL RELATED TO THE POSITIONAL WEST COAST TROF AND ITS INLAND MOVING DISTURBANCES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE THREATS IN EASTERN AZ...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS HURRICANE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA. ALL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST CURRENT TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...JUST OFF THE ACAPULCO COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TO MOVE NORTHWEST...STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND HUG THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA WEST COAST 450 MILES OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. IT NEVER MAKES LANDFALL...HOWEVER ITS MOISTURE AND RELATED HIGH PRECIP WATER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...MAXING OUT OVER AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A FIRST GUESS...MODELED UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...ARE NOT IDEAL FOR BIG AND WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT SAT AND SUN. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTHWEST AZ...SOUTHERN NV...AND SOUTHWEST UT. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... OVERALL WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...HOWEVER THE DIRECTION HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND. EXPECTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BEFORE THAT...THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AZ ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 - 25 KTS TO IMPACT KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 02Z AND 03Z. LIKELY SOME BLOWING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTFLOWS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE REDUCED VISIBILITY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... FAIRLY QUIET AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO RETAIN A DIURNAL WEST- SOUTHWEST HEADING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND SETS IN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY BE IN STORE STARTING FRIDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RISING HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL BE COMMONLY BREEZY AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ AVIATION...DEWEY FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MINOR COOLING NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY TO SOUTHERLY TODAY AS EXPECTED. MAJOR FEATURES UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM HAVE FOCUSED A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH QUITE A LONG FETCH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN A HEALTHY 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH HIGHER VALUES UPSTREAM IN SONORA. SOLID DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...SOLAR INSOLATION...AND A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADD UP TO BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. COULD WE FINALLY GET AN AFTERNOON WITH ALL OR MOST OF TUCSON METRO IMPACTED? STORM MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY SLOW A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY A CONCERN...ISOLATED SEVERE. MINOR FIRST PERIOD FORECAST UPDATES BLENDING IN LATER MODEL DATA WITH AN END RESULT OF INCREASING PRECIP PROBABILITIES 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/18Z. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35-45 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY GENERATE BLDU/S REDUCING VSBYS TO 1SM NW OF KTUS BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/03Z. CLOUD DECKS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 6-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS CHARACTERIZED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ARC OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SONORA MEXICO NWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA...THEN NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE... DARKENING FEATURE OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO REPRESENTS A VORT MAX THAT VARIOUS 12/00Z MODELS MOVE NWD ADJACENT THE ERN ARIZONA/WRN NEW MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT...AND A FAVORABLE GENERALLY SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THE CHANCES FOR WESTWARD EXPANSION OF SHOWER/TSTMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR AROUND 16Z- 17Z TODAY EITHER NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY...OR FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS ACROSS SWRN COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE NWWD AND ENCROACH UPON THE TUCSON METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...POPS WERE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED MODESTLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY LATE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST TO OCCUR FROM TUCSON NWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS FROM 12/21Z TO 13/03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY...HOWEVER. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF SHOWER-AND-THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR MON-WED MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WEAK SWLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/ TSTMS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRI WILL HAVE SIMILAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS BY FRI THOUGH APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY SAT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS FORECAST AREA FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLORES. THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND FURTHER WWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS...AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE NEXT SAT. IF THERE IS CONTINUED CONTINUITY AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS WILL LIKELY BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY FOR SAT. AS AN ASIDE...SUN IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAS RESULTED IN DAYTIME TEMPS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THRU THURSDAY...THEN SOME MINOR COOLING IS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENHANCED NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALIZED. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON MEYER/FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
938 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE MODIFIED WEATHER FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF NV 447. HRRR AND NAM ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN WE CURRENTLY SHOW...SO WILL PULL THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SOON. 20 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. SHORT TERM... A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AT 25-30 MPH. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT AS THE GFS INDICATES LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE GFS SOUNDINGS WERE ALREADY TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT 06Z (11 PM SATURDAY) SO I HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM FOR AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. THE NAM IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO WORK TOGETHER TO INITIATE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONES. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE BEST CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF THE SIERRA TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE. EVEN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM IS RATHER ANEMIC WITH PRECIPITATION SO CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAY EVEN WIND UP REMAINING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. MONDAY, AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS EVEN MORE SPARSE AS UPPER FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL AND CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY ON TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREAS SUCH AS THE MONO-MINERAL-SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY AREA. ELSEWHERE, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NO MORE THAN SOME FLAT CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED CONVECTION-WISE. TUESDAY, THE GFS, NAM AND THE SREF ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SNYDER LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS. A FEW BRIEF LATE DAY TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THURSDAY (THE WARMER DAY) BUT THIS POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS RATHER SLIM SO WE HAVE NOT YET ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS BY THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING TOWARD DEVELOPING A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE FARTHER EAST. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL INITIALLY BE INCREASING WINDS AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV ON FRIDAY. THE GFS WAS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEST CENTRAL NV, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PRODUCE CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME COOLING MAY REACH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY, BUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY DUE TO FULL MIXING AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. COOLING TREND CONTINUES THRU SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN, BUT AT THIS TIME WE DID NOT ADD ANY PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL SAT NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MJD AVIATION... FOR TODAY, ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL NV NEAR THE HWY 95 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MONO COUNTY BTWN 20-04Z, BUT THE MAIN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. FOR MONDAY, THE THREAT OF ISOLD LATE DAY TSTMS BECOMES REDUCED TO EASTERN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. FOR BOTH DAYS, SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY BTWN 22Z-04Z. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KTRK EACH MORNING MAINLY BTWN 11-15Z, BUT OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. MJD && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPDATED TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AS BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...HOT DAY ON TAP... AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EDGING WEST INTO CO TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO/KS BORDER. THIS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE...AND PROVIDE FOR JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE. EXPECT A VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT LACKS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A MODERATELY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RIDING UP ACROSS CO ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THIS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...AND ADDED FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT...GRIDS WILL CARRY GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SFC DEW POINTS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY HIGH YET ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND CAPES AND SHEAR APPEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO BURN SCARS. BETTER RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS A TAP OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRACKING OVER THE REGION. NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT TUES AFTERNOON...WITH GFS LIFTING IT BACK NORTHWARD INTO NE CO TUES AFTN...WHILE NAM12 AND ECMWF KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM RUNS FOR NOW. WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING BACK INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAPE VALUES TO 1500 TO PERHAPS CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. 0-6 KM SHEARS LOOK ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS EC OR SE CO TUESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...NAM12 AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THESE DETAILS VS THE DRIER GFS SOLN...WHICH WAS DISCOUNTED. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SENDS A SHORTWAVE TROF RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND SERVES TO SEND SOME DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN CO WED AFTN. THIS DROPS BACK SFC DEW POINTS AGAIN...WHICH DIMINISHES CAPE AND REDUCES POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DRY OUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS COMPARED TO ECMWF. WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR BURN SCARS THIS DAY AS THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. AIRMASS DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE NEXT RESURGENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME APPEARS TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT SUNDAY. -KT && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS EVENING...BOTH KALS AND KPUB MAY SEE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE VCNTY. MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WL MOVE THRU THE SERN CO PLAINS AND WL BRING SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT KPUB AND KCOS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...28 SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IN NW GA NEAR REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS THAT MOVED THRU ERN KY AND ERN TN THIS MORNING. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN SIDE TODAY AS A TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOST LIKELY WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNRISE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW. THE HRRR CURRENTLY DOESN`T GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO DETERMINE THE ENTIRE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WRF DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION A BIT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...NOT SURE THIS SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. HAVE STUCK WITH THE CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THE SYSTEM DOES HOLD TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE...SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR CONVECTION...SO HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT A BIT AFTER 06Z. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW EARLY ON MONDAY...SO HAVE POPS INCREASING IN THE NORTH A LITTLE EARLY. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AGAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HEAT INDICES IN THE SE CWFA RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THIS CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GA CONTINUES MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. CORRECTED... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SPC INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF ATLANTA AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THE REST OF THE AREA. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BDL && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... PRIMARY CONCERN IS LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TO ATL METRO TAFS FROM 20-23Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN AS HELPFUL TODAY. SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION TONIGHT THEN BACK TO WEST COMPONENT 4 TO 8KTS MONDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 94 73 94 74 / 30 20 30 20 ATLANTA 94 76 91 76 / 40 20 30 20 BLAIRSVILLE 86 67 86 68 / 50 30 30 40 CARTERSVILLE 93 71 92 73 / 50 20 30 20 COLUMBUS 98 76 94 76 / 20 10 30 20 GAINESVILLE 92 74 91 74 / 40 30 30 20 MACON 97 74 96 74 / 20 10 30 20 ROME 93 72 93 74 / 50 20 30 20 PEACHTREE CITY 94 73 92 74 / 30 10 30 20 VIDALIA 97 74 97 75 / 20 10 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
342 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS ROUGHLY WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS FIELD...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED JUST UPSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY. CLOSEST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS STILL IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT SHORT WAVE TROF IS APPROACHING SOUTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA LINE AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS KEEP MAIN MCS EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE ADVANCING CONVECTION. IF THESE FORM IT WILL QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. MAIN MCS SHOULD MOVE PAST THE AREA BY 12 UTC AND FRONT DOESNT REALLY MOVE MUCH BY THEN. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WERE THE MAIN ISSUES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LEANED TOWARD A NAM12/ECMWF BLEND FOR TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER IN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE STATE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT...BUT ENOUGH THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLD IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A MUCH LESS HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE STATE. SOME MIXING LOOKS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH TUESDAY...BUT WITH LESS HUMIDITY NOT CONCERNED WITH EXTREME HEAT INDEX VALUES. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE AND BEST CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TO PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS AS HIGH AS 4000 METERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TRENDED DRIER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHEN AND IF ANY SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WENT WITH LESSER POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. PLUS WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...TRENDED WARMER FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THINKING LESS CLOUD COVER AND MODELS AT LEAST HINTING ON STRONGER WAA. && .AVIATION...12/18Z ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LINGERING STRATUS AFFECTING KMCW AND KALO WILL DISSIPATE TO VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HOUR. LATER IN THE PERIOD INTRODUCED MENTION OF VCTS TO KALO KMCW AND KOTM WITH MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS- APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD- DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HUMBOLDT-JASPER- KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS- POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE- WEBSTER. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS- APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS- DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION- MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION- WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARDING LONG TERM...PODRAZIK AVIATION...HARDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER MOISTURE PLUME HAD WORKED ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS WITH A FEW CUMULUS RECENTLY NOTED IN HYS/HLC VICINITY NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN LESS IMPRESSIVE MIXING, AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INHIBITION TO CONVECTION IS LOW THOUGH SO IS FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS DECENT AND COULD KEEP SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORMS THAT FORM TO THE WEST. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE CUMULUS, THOUGH AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY, ALREADY HAS STORMS BY THIS POINT AND IT HAS BEEN OVERZEALOUS ON PRECIP IN RECENT DAYS. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A SMALL POP IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 0Z. NORTHERN UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST MONDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIOUS IDEAS ON LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS, AND MIXING AGAIN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE, LIKELY KEEPING DEWPOINTS RATHER HIGH. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT BUT THIS STILL SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED CIN AND, LIKE TODAY, LIMITED FORCING. WITH A MORE DEFINED BOUNDARY, WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT, WITH AGAIN SOME DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING MAINLY DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN, WITH APPARENT TEMPS AROUND 110 LIKELY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. AGAIN EXACT VALUES HARD TO NAIL DOWN AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN WARNING AREAS COULD BE NEEDED LATER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MODELS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +13C PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN GENERAL THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PERIOD WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE OBVIOUS. THE FORECAST HAS SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE IN THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN KS AND CENTRAL NEB ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS GOING. THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT OR FORCING PROGGED BY THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN KS FOR SUNDAY SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CENTER OF THE THERMAL RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE EXTENDED SO TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HOT WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT MAY NOT BE HAS EXTREME AS WE ARE EXPECTING TOMORROW, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 100 FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH 0Z BUT SUCH SPEEDS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION. WILL GO AHEAD WITH WIND SHEAR INCLUSION WITH GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN STRONGER SW WINDS DEVELOPING NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ012- 024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ012-024-026-038>040- 054>056-058-059. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ008>011-020>023- 034>037. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...WOLTERS AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE TO A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. A BROAD 1000MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED BELOW THIS UPPER LOW AND A TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. TO THE EAST OF THOSE FEATURES AND OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND DEPARTING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.P....WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING HAS PRODUCED A CU FIELD OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...WHILE THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE EAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN (KISQ ONLY 72 AT 3PM) HAS STABILIZED THAT AREA AND KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY SUNNY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH IS NOW PUSHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THEM TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. EXPECT THAT TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE SEEN A DOWNWARD TREND ON RADAR AND LIGHTNING OVER THE LAST 15-30MIN. HAVE SEEN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL THEY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL AND VERY ISOLATED. EXPECT THAT ISOLATED POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE...INHIBITED BY THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME CAPPING NEAR 725MB. IF SOMETHING COULD GET GOING WOULD LARGELY EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. THE FORECAST THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING (ALREADY STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND EAST OF FARGO ALONG THE WARM FRONT) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THEY WILL BE DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THEM TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO AN MCS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT LOCATION AND STORM MOTION WOULD MOVE THE STORMS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND THEN DIVE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY NEAR WESTERN WISCONSIN DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST POINTING FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE LOCATION OF THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...STILL THINK THE AREA WILL SEE THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER OUT WEST). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH THEM AS THE MAIN COMPLEX SLIDES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL ADD A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS BRUSHING THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW BEHIND THE MCS THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE STILL WILL BE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION (ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS...LIKELY TIED TO THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS. THE POPS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED TONIGHT ONCE THE MCS HAS SHOWN ITS LOCATION/MOVEMENT...AS IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET TO 750J/KG (EXCEPT OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...SO THINK THE THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL KEEP THE CHANCE THERE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 NAM SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN WENT DRY FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST 12Z THU. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME WARMER AIR TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SFC FRONTS WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND HAVING SOME POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED SEEMS WARRANTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A WEAKENING RIDGE COMBINED WITH AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT SPEEDS WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW 20KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MORNING THE FOG WAS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS EDGED THAT FOG A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. SEVERAL SHIP OBS TODAY INDICATED THE FOG WAS DENSE AT TIMES...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST AIR...ALONG WITH SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE FOG POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR 80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 NAM SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN WENT DRY FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST 12Z THU. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT INTO SUN WITH SOME WARMER AIR TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SFC FRONTS WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND HAVING SOME POPS IN FOR THE EXTENDED SEEMS WARRANTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264-266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...SRF MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN MANITOBA RESULTING IN DIFLUENT WRN FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SE SASK THROUGH CNTRL ND TO CNTRL IA. THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NEAR WINNIPEG TO KDVL ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHRTWV WAS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST. TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. TODAY...EXPECT THE NW WI SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...PER SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO UPPER MI...CONTINUED 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE PCPN EVEN THROUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. BY AFTERNOON...SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. WITH TEMPS TO NEAR 80...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE (PWAT TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES) AND LESS CAPPING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE SE CWA. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. SUN NIGHT...WITH A PROMINENT THETA-E RIDGE AND AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD SLIDE EAST FROM MN INTO WI AND POSSIBLY INTO UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER CAPE GRADIENT BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI. SO...THE FCST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS...GREATEST OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE SW...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BRUSH THE FAR WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 12Z MONDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE OVER N HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO MN/ND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SLIDING TO LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB SINKS TO SE HUDSON BAY. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHOWERS AS THE LARGE SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH MN AND S WI. THE NAM PUTS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LARGE LOW TO OUR S...WHICH ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1.5K J/KG REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR S. HOWEVER...THE GFS DID HAVE HIGHER VALUES NOSING INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AS INDICATED BY THE PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2IN ALL THE WAY UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK LATER TUESDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE NEXT 500MB LOW SINKS FROM FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO SW CANADA OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS HAS PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1IN /LOWEST E AT AROUND 0.25IN/. BOTH THEN GFS AND ECMWF POINT AT THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD AFFECT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. IF A SHOWER DOES DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE DIURNAL CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INITIALLY AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO AFFECT KIWD AND LIKELY KCMX/KSAW. THAT RAIN WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...WHICH ALSO LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. HAVE KEPT THINGS AT MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW...BUT DID HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED WORDING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FELT IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HIGH OVERWATER STABILITY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES...FOG WILL EXPAND OVER THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BEGINNING ON TUE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...SRF MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
115 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT VERY SLOWLY CREEPS NE THRU PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TVC OB RECENTLY AND THE FKS OB EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAVE SEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. SUSPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" RETURNS (IF YOU CAN CALL THEM THAT). OVERALL...CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL FITTING THE BILL FOR THIS AREA OF DIMINISHING PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BOOSTS CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT/ ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ENJOY! UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (DRIVEN BY A DEFINITIVE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY) CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE FROM FRANKFORT TO MANISTEE. FRANKFORT REPORTING 4SM AND -RA AS OF 1056Z. SO PRECIP IS IN FACT REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR SUGGESTS SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS MORNING IMPACTING THOSE SW COUNTIES AND HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...WILL IT RAIN OR WILL IT NOT...THAT IS THE QUESTION... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE YET. PATTERN OVERVIEW: STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A FAIRLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS STRETCHES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE THERE IS A COUPLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ONGOING FROM MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED IN FAR NRN NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE GREAT LAKES...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY HOWEVER (REFERENCE APX 00Z SOUNDING) AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE UP THERE. BUT...WITH SMALL POCKETS OF >40 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITIES... SUSPECT SOMETHING IS PROBABLY GETTING TO THE GROUND. PATTERN FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WHILE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIXES ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN STATES. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NRN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT (IF ANY) THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WANTED TO IGNORE IT. BUT SMALL POCKET OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS ON COMING. AND GIVEN POCKETS OF REFLECTIVITIES EXCEEDING 40 DBZ...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST "PROBLEM" OUT OF THE WAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (LOWER 80S OVER UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS) YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING ALOFT. MARINE LAYER(S) CONTRACTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL KICK ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...LIKE THE IDEA IN THE GOING FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP IT AS IS. TONIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OUT ACROSS MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THETA-E AXIS RUNNING UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO TRACKS THE HEART OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THAT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT PART OF THAT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE AND SLIDE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WELL DEFINED MCV THAT SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH...IF THAT HAPPENS...WOULD DRAG SOME RAINFALL THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THAT SAID...THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALLY OVERDONE AND CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED. BUT PROBLEM IS IT/S IMPOSSIBLE TO GUAGE UNTIL IT GETS GOING. BEST COURSE OF ACTION RIGHT NOW IS TO KEEP OUR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING AND WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS GO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO OUR SW...I SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTION WILL MISS US. BUT...WILL SEE. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE. (7/13)MONDAY...AS THE MCS DIVES TO THE SW OF THE STATE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE IN ITS WAKE. FIRST OFF, THE NAM`S SPIN UP OF A 998MB LOW FROM THE MCV THAT TRAILS THE INITIAL MCS SEEMS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS A LESS PRONOUNCED SFC LOW THAT FALLS MORE TO THE SW WITH A 500 MB SHALLOW SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE SFC DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS THE SAME SHALLOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE. SO WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AND BASED ON THE TREND OF THE INSTABILITY BEING SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN LOWER. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. (7/14)TUESDAY...ONCE THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH, A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS PRETTY LOW ON THE PROBABILITY SCALE. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. THURSDAY, TOO, LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY, BUT MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT NIGHT, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF OVERDEVELOPS THE SFC LOW TO 996MB SO THINK THAT IT IS OFF, BUT THE GFS MAY HAVE THE IDEA WITH A WEAKER SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TO KICK THINGS OFF. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE DRY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY FOR TVC AND MBL AS THE NW EDGE OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE CLIPS THAT AREA. STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE DAY. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE S/SE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ANOTHER DAY OF OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVILY MODIFIED BY LAND BREEZES THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TRACK DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN...THROUGH CHICAGO AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MIGHT IMPACT CENTRAL AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT HEART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ANY EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. LOWER IMPACT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MLR NEAR TERM...ADAM SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...MLR MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SE ND. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SW MN. THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL MN N OF THE WARM FRONT AND A COUPLE COUNTIES W OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING AND AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT AND PERCOLATE IN THE VCNTY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 06Z. LATEST HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. SOME STORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS AFTER 08Z THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH SOME NICE RAIN WAS NOTED DURING THE DAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI. SOME AREAS WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE STORMS IN THE MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT BEGINS BY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND N OF THE LOW TRACK WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKELY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS MID-WEEK...RETURNING TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500MB RIDGE/UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AND CAUSE A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE RIDGE. ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS AND THUS COOLER TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIR /CANADA/ AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF IT IS MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE REACHING LAND WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER /LOWER DEW POINT/ AIR. HOWEVER...WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN RESULTING IN RISING TEMPS AND DEW POINT VALUES. LATE IN THE WEEK WE HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF EACH DAY ARE STILL TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. REGARDLESS...OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH A 120KT OR SO JET AT 250MB. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A BETTER ENVIRONMENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE HAVE HAD STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MORNING CONVECTION ENDED UP BEING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME CLEARING AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT A FEW SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND FAST MOVING...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR/LIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. FOLLOWING THESE STORMS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WITH IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 64 80 64 71 / 60 40 30 40 INL 61 83 62 78 / 70 40 30 40 BRD 63 85 64 82 / 50 50 40 50 HYR 64 82 63 76 / 60 50 30 30 ASX 61 80 60 69 / 60 40 30 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
515 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 JUST A SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM IN THIS AREA, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA WITH CURRENT HEAT INDICES AROUND 102-103 ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, CAPPING SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE GFS MODEL LOOKS TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS QPF TONIGHT, WHILE THE NAM MODEL MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH ITS QFF. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST INCLUDE CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IL, NORTH AND EAST OF STL. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD IN THE WEAKENING STAGES AS IT DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA, IT MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT. GKS .LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT ITS DOMINANCE OVER OUR REGION WILL WAX AND WANE AT TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DOMINANCE OF THIS UPPER HIGH FADING LATE MONDAY...AND ROUGHLY CORRESPONDING WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER HIGH`S INFLUENCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND AND THIS ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHING BACK THRU ON THURSDAY. WHEN THE FRONT IS TO OUR NORTH...NAMELY THRU MONDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE A REAL CONCERN AND FOR THE ONGOING SITUATION...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND WILL COVER MUCH OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY. THIS HANDLES WELL THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. THE POTENTIAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY EVENT FOR LATE WEEK IS TOO FAR OUT TO DEAL WITH HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT BUT MERITS A CLOSE WATCH. DESPITE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONT SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH THRU WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN ON TEMPS BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH OF ONE TO PLACE A HOLD ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE TEMPS IS LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PCPN CHANCES FOR SOME AREAS. THE ANTICIPATED DROP IN HUMIDITY FROM MONDAY WILL MAKE ANY TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF A HEAT ADVISORY ENOUGH IN DOUBT TO NOT TOUCH HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. PCPN CHANCES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOME SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IL...WHICH WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF WHAT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND SOME AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WHAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD INITIALLY BE WELL CAPPED BUT THIS CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH ON APPROACH OF THE FRONT WHERE IT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE RIDING BACK NORTH THRU OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS. TES && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION. FOR OVERNIGHT, HRRR AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THUDERSTORMS COMPLEX FORMING OVER UPPER MIDWEST AND DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. WILL THROW OUT THE OVERLY WET GFS. UIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE, ALBEIT A LOW ONE, SO WILL KEEP THE VCTS GOING. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HRRR AND NAM APPEAR TO BE THE BEST MODELS WITH THE PRECIPITAION PATTERN, AND THEY KEEP THE RAIN EAST OF STL. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND. JPK && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO- JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL- RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL CENTERED NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 08Z. THE OVERALL COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO VEERING OF THE LLJ/DECREASING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AFTER DAYBREAK PROBABLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN IL, AND DYING QUICKLY. THEREAFTER CLOUDS SHOULD THIN, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RECOVER AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT LOW- MID LEVEL WARMING SUGGESTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CAP SHOULD ADVANCE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WITH THE HIGHEST CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ARE STILL ON TRACK, AS IS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED METRO STL HEAT ADVISORY. GLASS .LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THERE CONTINUE TO BE ALOT OF QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE VARIED WITH SOME OF THEM GENERATING PRECIPITATION WELL BACK INTO VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST QPF PARTICULARILY WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BIAS WITH TOO MUCH QPF INTO THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS OF THESE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS IS ON TARGET, I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION TONIGHT WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONLY THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OF OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW-MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN CASTS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. I`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL ON MONDAY ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THESE FORECAST MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE CORRECT I THINK THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA IN IL. WHEREEVER THAT EDGE OF THE CAP IS LOCATED, THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S, THE HOTTEST TEMPS AGAIN CENTERED ON METRO ST. LOUIS. HEAT INDICES OF 105+ WILL OCCUPY GREATER REAL ESTATE AND I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/EASTERN OZARKS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PROMPT HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING. WHILE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THE COOLING ALOFT AND FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL, ONLY MODEST COOLING WILL OCCUR AND MANY AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SEASONABLY HOT TEMPS BUT LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDEX VALUES. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING BETTER COOLING AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN WAVERS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLASS && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAKENING MCS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT UIN, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOUD REMAIN SOUTH OF STL IN THE OZARKS. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IL TONIGHT, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF STL. JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE QUITE CAPPED WITH CONVECTION EAST OF STL. SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...UP TO 11-13 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO- JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO. IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL- RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1130 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 1130AM UPDATE... POPS WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO DECIDED TO PLACE LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A WETTING RAIN WHERE THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURS. MALIAWCO 930AM UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEY EXTENDING BACK INTO PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PUSHES EAST...FOLLOWING THE LATEST NAM. THE GFS HAS A DRIER DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EXCEPT FOR JUST THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT YET HAVE BACKING FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND TWEAK ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THE OTHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS SOLID. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT THE FORT PECK DAM HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO ONLY GO UP FROM THERE TO EXCEED 20 MPH. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE OF MONTANA WHICH NOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A FINAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NE MONTANA TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER...THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT SHOWS A BIT MORE DISCREPANCY. REGARDLESS...ANY RESULTING PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IF ANY AT ALL. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE NE MONTANA WILL GET THE STRAGGLING LEFTOVERS. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS FOR US...COVERING MOST OF THE CWA IN SOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTIONS TO COVER ANY ERRANT ISOLATED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE NE MONTANA AND PUSH THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP RESTRICTED TO OUR FAR NE AND SW CORNERS WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES IN BETWEEN. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE IN ON THE OTHERWISE CALM SW FLOW ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MIDWEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND TOWARD SOME SPLITTING WITH A PORTION RETROGRADING INTO A LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN MAINTAINED TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. EBERT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OUT THERE ARE VERY HOT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 AT 3 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS AGAIN MONDAY FOR QUITE A FEW COUNTIES IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS VARYING BETWEEN THE LOWER 70S IN OUR WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR EAST. WE ALSO HAVE THE SPORADIC IOWA AWOS VALUES IN THE LOW 80S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A TROUGH IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 90S NEAR THE BOUNDARY MONDAY. COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY ONCE AGAIN SO DID HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE LOWER AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WE CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES. CONVECTION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE...THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AID CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES OF TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053- 066>068-078-088>093. IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS A RATHER CLASSIC MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A RETURN TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR LUBBOCK TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BOTH 18Z NAM12 AND 20Z HRRR PICKING UP ON PERTURBATION/VORT LOBE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR SE ARIZONA. BOTH MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE INTO SWRN AND WEST CENTRAL NM AFTER MIDNIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THERE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD MORE EASILY INTO THE NE AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM THURSDAY...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE DOWN DAY THERE. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HANGS TOUGH ELSEWHERE. 12Z GFS PROGGING AN INCREASE IN SELY WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DOLORES. THIS INCREASING FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND SRN ARIZONA. 12Z GFS GOES SO FAR AS TO DEVELOP A WARM CORE LOW OVER SE AZ/WRN NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SUCH A FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE IN HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO FAR OUT AT THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF A FEATURE YET TO DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. SUNDAY COULD BE THE NEXT DOWNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WWD INTO SRN AZ. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AS 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER SE NM...KEEPING WRN AND NRN NM ACTIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CROP TODAY IS GREATER IN NUMBER AND AT LEAST AS VIGOROUS AS WAS THE CASE SAT...MOST TODAY BEING ACROSS THE WEST TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA AND INTO EAST AZ. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH FCST MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TO BE THU TO FRI AND MAY BE SHORTER IN DURATION THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED THE PAST DAY OR TWO. LESS INDICATION THAN 12 TO 24 HRS AGO OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE NM NEAR MON TO MON NIGHT PERIOD...THOUGH IF CONVECTION DOES RAMP UP IN SE CO THERE STILL WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A STORM COMPLEX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR NE. IF IT DOES NOT HAPPEN THEN STORM COVERAGE IN NE NM MAY NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH. FCST MODELS FOR THE MOST PART CONTINUING TO DELAY...A FEW EVEN ELIMINATE...THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE STATE... LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WEST HALF OF NM. NEXT WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL INDICATED AS MOVING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE WELL TO OUR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST NORTH AND WEST THROUGH WED...WITH SOME DECREASE POSS THU. 43 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE CENTER OF UPPER LVL HIGH REMAINS TO EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER TROF JUST OFF WEST COAST AND THIS COMBO IS KEEPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TO N CENTRAL NM. SHRA AND TSRA TO INCREASE TO SCT OR EVEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AT LEAST A FEW REACHING THE LOWER TERRAIN AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER TSRA. ISOLD STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SE AND E CENTRAL NM DUE TO TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS CORRECT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 58 85 60 86 / 20 20 20 10 DULCE........................... 50 80 50 79 / 20 20 20 30 CUBA............................ 51 77 53 75 / 30 40 30 40 GALLUP.......................... 52 82 53 81 / 40 40 30 20 EL MORRO........................ 51 78 52 76 / 40 60 30 40 GRANTS.......................... 53 80 54 79 / 30 40 30 50 QUEMADO......................... 55 79 56 78 / 30 40 30 40 GLENWOOD........................ 56 86 57 84 / 30 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 49 73 48 72 / 30 60 30 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 80 59 79 / 30 50 30 60 PECOS........................... 56 81 57 79 / 30 20 20 40 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 76 52 75 / 30 40 30 40 RED RIVER....................... 48 69 46 68 / 40 70 40 70 ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 71 51 70 / 40 60 40 70 TAOS............................ 51 80 51 79 / 30 20 20 20 MORA............................ 53 78 53 76 / 30 40 30 50 ESPANOLA........................ 57 86 57 84 / 30 10 20 30 SANTA FE........................ 59 82 60 81 / 20 10 20 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 85 59 84 / 20 10 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 86 65 86 / 20 5 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 88 68 88 / 20 5 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 90 63 90 / 10 5 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 89 66 88 / 20 5 10 20 LOS LUNAS....................... 59 90 61 88 / 20 5 10 20 RIO RANCHO...................... 63 89 65 88 / 20 5 20 20 SOCORRO......................... 63 92 63 91 / 20 10 10 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 83 59 82 / 20 20 20 30 TIJERAS......................... 56 85 56 84 / 20 10 20 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 86 51 85 / 10 5 5 10 CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 83 59 83 / 20 10 10 10 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 85 59 84 / 20 5 10 10 CARRIZOZO....................... 62 89 62 90 / 20 5 10 5 RUIDOSO......................... 59 81 59 81 / 20 20 10 30 CAPULIN......................... 59 83 57 82 / 40 20 30 50 RATON........................... 57 86 56 84 / 30 10 20 30 SPRINGER........................ 58 88 57 86 / 30 10 10 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 55 83 55 82 / 20 20 10 20 CLAYTON......................... 65 95 63 92 / 20 5 10 20 ROY............................. 62 89 61 88 / 20 5 5 20 CONCHAS......................... 67 98 67 97 / 10 5 0 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 66 95 66 94 / 10 5 5 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 0 5 5 CLOVIS.......................... 66 95 65 95 / 20 0 5 5 PORTALES........................ 67 97 67 97 / 20 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 67 97 67 96 / 20 0 10 0 ROSWELL......................... 66 99 67 98 / 5 0 5 0 PICACHO......................... 62 93 62 92 / 20 5 10 10 ELK............................. 60 85 60 85 / 20 10 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE CENTER OF UPPER LVL HIGH REMAINS TO EAST OF NM WITH WEAK UPPER TROF JUST OFF WEST COAST AND THIS COMBO IS KEEPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TO N CENTRAL NM. SHRA AND TSRA TO INCREASE TO SCT OR EVEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AT LEAST A FEW REACHING THE LOWER TERRAIN AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER TSRA. ISOLD STORMS WITH HAIL AND WND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER AFT 18Z. LITTLE OR NO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SE AND E CENTRAL NM DUE TO TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE IF SHORT TERM MODELS CORRECT. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015... .SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN RECENT DAYS...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE. THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE FAVORED AGAIN ON MONDAY WHILE ON TUESDAY...STORMS MAY ALSO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT. THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST INACTIVE DAY. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT BACK OVER WESTERN NM AND A VORT MAX WILL RIDE UP THRU THE FLOW AND SPARK NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE. THE HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SLOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT REMAINING CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. THUS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING TCC REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE TILTED A BIT MORE TOWARD NE NM ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO. THAT COMBINED WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NE MAY MAKE THAT AREA A BIT MORE ACTIVE. OTHERWISE THOUGH...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO MIX OUT A BIT MORE. STILL EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AT THE VERY LEAST. THE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS ONCE THOUGHT. WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WAS ONCE SUPPOSED TO ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND LIMIT MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD...MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL STAY ACROSS NM...KEEPING IT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME ELONGATION...AND DISRUPTION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE STATE ON OR BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE...BUT AGAIN...PERHAPS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT OR LONG LASTING. MODELS NOW SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER HIGH CENTER STARTING TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS WEST COAST TROF WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CELL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE TRENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SLOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE RGV TO THE AZ BORDER. THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THIS WEEK. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THOUGH WILL MAKE SOME DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTION. THE NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NE MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY SO THIS COULD BE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER CO AND CONSEQUENTLY BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN NE NM. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DOES NOT RETURN AS FAR WESTWARD...LEAVING THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE INTACT OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THE GFS THETA E FORECAST DOESN/T INDICATE MUCH DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...SOME DAY TO DAY INCREASES/DECREASES OVERALL AS THE PLUME WOBBLES AROUND BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND. AT THE END OF THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS SHUNTED UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO CA WITH THE BULK OF IT/S MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEST...BUT RISE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THIS WEEK. VENT RATES GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL EXIST NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ONLY CHANGES WERE TO FINE TUNE POPS INTO MID AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 2 AREAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA IS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH THE STRONGER AREA INITIALLY NEAR THE MN/SD/ND BORDER AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 CONVECTION CLOSE TO EXITING THE FAR EAST AND WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. PULLED POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH...SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGH CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEN WE SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FOG FORMATION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...SO INCLUDED A PATCHY MENTION EVEN THOUGH THE REALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD. THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE 08Z. AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90 FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND MENTION IN THE WX STORY. TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. EXPECT CIGS AT ALL SITES TO BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC HEATING...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO BE AROUND 4-6 KFT AS SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...RESULTING IN ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE FOR LOW BASED CU DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 21Z-02Z TIME FRAME AS BEST DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKES COUNTRY OF MN...AND AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...AT A MINIMUM BROUGHT IN VCTS DURING THE PERIOD MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CONTINUED SRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WITH ERRATIC WINDS AND LLWS INVOF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP. FOR MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN H500 SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM LOOKS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER BRINGING MOST OF THE ENERGY BY 12Z TUESDAY. PREFER THE CONSENSUS FROM GFS/ECMWF. THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS... SOME WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE CODED LIKELY POPS FOR BOTH DAYS WITH EACH SYSTEM. CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUES DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOR WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LESS NUMEROUS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS ON FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD BRING SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED WIDESPREAD DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH WPC FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE GRADIENTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO CONTAIN SOME WIND GUSTS AND INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NEED UPDATES. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOILS REMAIN QUITE WET. WITH THAT IN MIND...BROUGHT IN IFR FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE:MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. AFTER 18Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORTWWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP. FOR MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HARD TO TIME AND TRACK UPPER FEATURES. THE KEY PLAYER IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST. THE KEY QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS US AND ALLOW THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ROLL ACROSS US...OR WILL THE BOUNDARY OUT WEST BE MAINTAINED BY PRIOR COMPLEXES AND KEEP HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH MODEL HANDLING THE QPF DIFFERENTLY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IN THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO CARRY POPS THIS PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH...AS A WEAKER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DRAGGING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND SHOULD ALLOW ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT TO LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ALL THIS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT ALSO REMAINING QUITE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE GRADIENTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO CONTAIN SOME WIND GUSTS AND INDIVIDUAL SITES MAY NEED UPDATES. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOILS REMAIN QUITE WET. WITH THAT IN MIND...BROUGHT IN IFR FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. AFTER 18Z MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JB/ARJ AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. COMPACT S/WV OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE SEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY ESEWD THRU 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO THE LAURELS BTWN 21-00Z. HOWEVER NEAR/SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN A NW-SE ZONE FROM ERN OH SEWD THRU SWRN PA INTO NRN WV/WRN MD/NRN VA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS BEYOND THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BELOW AVG...AND MUCH OF THE CWA /PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ COULD END UP MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY...AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD INTO NY STATE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE OVER MT THIS AFTERNOON CRESTS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO DY3/TUESDAY. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LIKE THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO P.M. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING DOMINATES THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER PA REINFORCING HIGHER PWAT AIR AT SAME TIME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS WEAK OVER CENTRAL PA. BY WED NIGHT INTO THU THE NAEFS SHOWS THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST IN FAVOR OF RISING HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR. WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES THIS IS AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF. LATE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS A WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST AGAIN LIFTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAGGLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS PA ALL WEEK. FRI WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE COULD GET INTO A "RING-OF-FIRE" TYPE PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE SERN US AND WE GET SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS GIVING WAY TO A THICKENING MID LVL CLOUD DECK. HRRR/COSPA SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER HLG/PIT TO APPROACH JST BY 00Z. THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR. OUTLOOK... MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. THUR...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...ROSS/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. COMPACT S/WV OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 18Z WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE SEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO FAR SWRN PA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY ESEWD THRU 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE TO THE LAURELS BTWN 21-00Z. HOWEVER NEAR/SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN A NW-SE ZONE FROM ERN OH SEWD THRU SWRN PA INTO NRN WV/WRN MD/NRN VA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS BEYOND THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BELOW AVG...AND MUCH OF THE CWA /PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ COULD END UP MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY...AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD INTO NY STATE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE OVER MT THIS AFTERNOON CRESTS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO CARVE OUT AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO DY3/TUESDAY. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LIKE THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO P.M. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING DOMINATES THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER PA REINFORCING HIGHER PWAT AIR AT SAME TIME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS WEAK OVER CENTRAL PA. BY WED NIGHT INTO THU THE NAEFS SHOWS THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST IN FAVOR OF RISING HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR. WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES THIS IS AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF. LATE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS A WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST AGAIN LIFTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAGGLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS PA ALL WEEK. FRI WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WE COULD GET INTO A "RING-OF-FIRE" TYPE PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE SERN US AND WE GET SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS GIVING WAY TO A THICKENING MID LVL CLOUD DECK. HRRR/COSPA SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER HLG/PIT TO APPROACH JST BY 00Z. THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD IFR. OUTLOOK... MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. THUR...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...AN UPPER HIGH WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 425 PM...HAVE BACKED OFF POP FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS. THE LATEST RAP AND LAPS CAPE ANALYSES SHOW DECREASING INSTBY AND INCREASING CIN ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA THANKS TO THE THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY TSTMS...BUT THE WINDOW SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACRS KY/TN MAY REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO WILL KEEP A HIGHER POP THERE. ANYTHING REACHING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY BE ON A DISSIPATING TREND GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTBY. AT 245 PM...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DISSIPATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC MTNS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD MCS. A THICK SHIELD OF DEBRIS CIRRUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA...WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CU EAST OF THE MTNS. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY TEMPS COUPLED WITH SLOW DEWPOINT RECOVER HAS LEFT THE I-77 CORRIDOR STABLE. AREAS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MAY RANGE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING DEEPER CONVECTION. THE TIME HAS COME TO DEPART FROM A CAM AND NAM SCENARIO OF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD MCS COLD POOL...I WILL LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT...UNSETTLED NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A FEW STRAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN BORDER. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 70S EAST. ON MONDAY...EXPECTING THE HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE...WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUN SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE STEADILY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF H85 WAA. IN ADDITION...SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...YIELDING SEVERAL DEGREES OF DEWPOINT RECOVERY. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING H5 HEIGHTS...TEMPS PEAKING 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE MID LEVELS...RESULTING IN BRISK STEERING FLOW TO THE SE. I EXPECT THAT TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CARRIED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON DEEP INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR...A FEW SVR TSRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE... WHILE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES (S/W`S) RIPPLE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SUITE OF MODELS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERING IN TIMING/EXACT LOCATIONS OF SAID S/W`S...HAVE A SIMILAR THEME OF BRING A PACKET OF ENERGY ACROSS OUR FA MONDAY NIGHT. THE ENERGY ALOFT...WITH DPVA...SHOULD INTERCEPT INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES AND ALLOW CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY LOCAL COLD POOL INTERACTIONS WITH A MICROBURST/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WE WILL HAVE OUR HIGHEST POPS IN THE NC/FAR NE TN MOUNTAINS...WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE SHOWING EXTREME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEPARATED FROM THE ACTION EXPECTED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. UPSHOT WE WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL POP DISTRIBUTION... WITH POPS INCREASING UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BACKING DOWN. THE SLIGHT RISK MONDAY LOOKS WELL PLACED BASED ON VARIOUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. WE DO NOT PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE GFS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE SCHEME BLOW-UP ALLOWING DAYBREAK CONVECTION TO HIT OUR NORTHERN FA. TRYING TO SENSIBLY PUT TOGETHER OUR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON S/W TIMING AND COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. WE ARE GOING TO TRY AND FOLLOW THE PRIMARY S/W AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. AGAIN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE WEST IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO START...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH...MAY SEND AN OUTFLOW AND KICK OFF THE PROCESS. ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING AN UPTICK IN POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS TIMING DIFFERENCES FILTER IN. NEVERTHELESS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE SUCH THAT PERHAPS ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. A DIFFERENCE IN THE SURFACE FRONTAL PATTERN TREND LEADS TO KEEPING CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FAVORED THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE TN. WE HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSELY THIS SECTION... WHICH MAINTAINS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z THURSDAY JUST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY CLEAN...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODEST DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SO POPS WERE KEPT NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND. FROM THIS POINT ON MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES...SO THE FORECAST IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RETROGRESSES BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOISTEN THE AIRMASS...LIKELY DRIVING UP POPS ONCE AGAIN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO...AND INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM EVEN MORE TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WAVES OF THICK DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. CONVECTION FROM AN OLD MCS WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH 20Z. CAMS INDICATE THAT NEW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MTNS BETWEEN 20-21Z...AS THE OLD COLD POOL PLOWS EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND CAPE ANALYSIS THE CAMS SCENARIO REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...I WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OLD TAFS AND INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO. AFTER THIS EVENING...THE CONCERN FOR FOG WILL REMAIN WHERE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KAVL SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST CHC FOR FOG...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH 4SM BETWEEN 10Z TO 12Z. ON MONDAY...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE CAPE...I WILL ADD A PROB30 EAST OF I-77 DURING THE FINAL HOURS OF THE TAF. OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEV NEAR TERM...ARK/NED SHORT TERM...TS LONG TERM...LEV AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FROM DEMING WEST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH HAS PRETTY MUCH SNUFFED OUT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS...WILL REMAIN OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN TO FAR EAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MOST OF THE BORDERLAND. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION SO FAR IS OCCURRING ABOUT WHERE WE THOUGHT...OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...AS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SUPPRESSED ANY ACTION OVER THE EASTERN LOWLANDS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON BOTH ENDS OF THE CWA BUT LITTLE IN BETWEEN DUE TO THE HIGH. HRRR SHOWS NICE OUTFLOW FROM ARIZONA MOVING EAST TO AT LEAST DEMING BY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL RUNS ON THIS FOR CONSISTENCY...THOUGH GUST SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED LAST RUN OR TWO. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S STILL AROUND 1.0-1.1 INCH ACROSS THE AREA SO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT MUCH THE SAME MONDAY AGAIN AS UPPER HIGH JUST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. FOR MONDAY AIRMASS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY MOUNTAINS AND DEMING WEST...THOUGH PW`S OF 1+ INCH ONLY FROM DEMING WEST. BY TUESDAY UPPER HIGH IS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSION SHOULD EASE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...POPS BACK IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS SUGGESTING BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RIDGING DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM CENTER MAY SUPPRESS STORMS AGAIN IN THE EAST. GFS SHOWING PW`S REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH...BUT SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SPEEDS COULD STILL LEAD TO LOCAL FLOOD POTENTIAL. FOR THE WEEKEND...REGIME OF MOUNTAIN AND FAR WEST THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE LIKELY TOO MUCH FOR THE EAST. GFS LONG TERM SHOWS UPPER HIGH RE-CENTERING TO OUR WEST...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS. ECMWF MORE INCLINED TO KEEP UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PLAY OUT. && .AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z-14/00Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO FAR NORTH AND WEST LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN250 AND WINDS AOB 12 KTS. HOWEVER VRB15G30KT ISO-SCT -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCS AND DMN THRU 06Z WITH BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. $$ .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. THIS WILL LIMIT MOST WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BUT VENT RATES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE GOOD TO VERY GOOD CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE REGION THANKS TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 74 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 68 97 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 68 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 68 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 53 73 53 75 / 10 20 20 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 95 69 97 / 20 10 10 20 SILVER CITY 63 90 64 91 / 30 30 30 30 DEMING 68 98 70 99 / 20 20 20 20 LORDSBURG 67 97 68 98 / 30 30 30 20 WEST EL PASO METRO 74 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 69 99 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 FORT HANCOCK 73 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 LOMA LINDA 69 97 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 FABENS 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 71 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 70 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 10 JORNADA RANGE 67 98 68 100 / 10 0 0 10 HATCH 67 98 68 100 / 10 10 10 20 COLUMBUS 69 98 70 99 / 10 20 20 0 OROGRANDE 71 98 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 10 20 MESCALERO 55 85 55 87 / 10 20 20 20 TIMBERON 56 84 57 87 / 10 10 10 10 WINSTON 59 87 60 89 / 30 30 30 50 HILLSBORO 64 96 65 97 / 20 20 20 30 SPACEPORT 67 96 68 99 / 10 0 0 10 LAKE ROBERTS 58 88 59 89 / 30 40 40 40 HURLEY 64 93 65 94 / 20 40 40 30 CLIFF 62 95 63 94 / 30 40 40 30 MULE CREEK 60 97 62 96 / 40 30 30 30 FAYWOOD 64 94 65 96 / 20 30 30 30 ANIMAS 67 97 68 98 / 30 30 30 20 HACHITA 67 97 67 98 / 20 40 40 20 ANTELOPE WELLS 65 96 67 96 / 30 40 40 30 CLOVERDALE 65 95 66 95 / 30 30 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 17/27 HEFNER/LANEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
143 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT AND THE MESSAGE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS SUCH. HEAT AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING ACROSS IA/MN AT THIS TIME. CLOUD DISSIPATION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM FORECAST. CONVERGENCE EAST OF KABR CONTINUES WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGINNING IN SERN ND. WHILE THE SPC GRAPHIC HAS THE AREA IN A MODERATE/ENHANCED RISK...IT APPEARS THE CONFIDENCE IN A CONVECTIVE TRACK IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE CONVECTION AFTER INITIATION IN WRN MN LATER TODAY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE DAKOTAS/MN TRIPLE POINT LATER TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS FOR INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH NEAR KRWF AND ALSO FURTHER NORTH TOWARD KGFK. AFTER INITIATION...A MAJORITY OF CAMS MOVE THE CONVECTION EAST...FAVORING A MEAN WIND / ADVECTIVE COMPONENT VERSUS PROPAGATION AND CELL GROWTH INTO THE INSTABILITY POOL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CONVECTION IS TIED MORE TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALONG I-94 IN DAKOTAS/MN AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE SPC RISK IS BASED ON PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION INTO THE INSTABILITY WHICH HAS ITS MAX AXIS NEAR I-35 OR THRU CENTRAL MN BY EVENING...EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS POOL CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WI. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS EXCELLENT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF MISS RIVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER WIND SHEAR AND WIND PROFILE OVERALL. THE SPREAD OF CAM SOLUTIONS AND THE LACK OF A LINEAR FEATURE MAY BE DUE TO THE MODEST WIND SHEAR. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE REPORTS FROM THIS EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE SUPPORTING THE SPC CONVECTIVE RISK...WITH AN ADJUSTMENT EAST A BIT MORE INTO WI. SEEMS THE SPC RISK AND A PROPAGATION OF NEW CELLS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL MN IS ON TRACK. BELIEVE IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NWRN FORECAST AREA BY LATER EVENING /AFTER 10 PM/. INITIATION SIGNALS NEAR KRWF ALONG A SOUTHERN CONVERGENCE REGION AND TRUE MT AIR MASS WARM FRONT WOULD PROVIDE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF STORMS. THE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CANNOT BE UNDERPLAYED EVEN WITH MODEST SHEAR. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE FAVORED FOR MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH ANY LINEAR BAND FAVORING SEVERE WINDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE CHANCES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TODAY AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. WITH THESE RISING HEIGHTS...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN MAY COME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE 12.00Z MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT SOME CONVECTION NEAR DLH ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK SECONDARY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. ONCE THIS GOES...IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER BUT THIS WILL BE AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE NOSE OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING AIMED AT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND LAY UP FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE 12.00Z NAM...GFS...HI-RES NMM AND HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN THE MATURE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CR NAM-NEST AT 00Z INDICATES AROUND 2500 J/KG OF BL CAPE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE CAPE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH AT LEAST 3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA AT 06Z. THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS IT COMES ACROSS TONIGHT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT BY SOME OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12.00Z CR-NAMNEST...NSSL WRF AND SPC WRF. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT GET AS FAR NORTH TODAY AND ENDS UP FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE MODELS THEN FIRE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND A SECOND AREA OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX DROPPING IT INTO IOWA SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WHILE THE NORTHERN COMPLEX COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE JUST A GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MUCH OF IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH DOES NOT MIX OUT UNTIL SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE HELD BACK AND ACTUALLY COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AND IF IT PERSISTS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL A BIG NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE QUICKLY ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. THE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94. SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE FOR VERY LONG AND DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER MONDAY TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. THE REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE A DRY MORNING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN COME BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CAPE THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM WOULD KEEP THE CAPE AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AROUND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO WISCONSIN. THERE COULD AGAIN BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CAPE AXIS...SO SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY BEFORE BEING FLATTENED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN BUILDING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE MID WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SO WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 EXPECT TSRA TO MOVE IN TO THE TAF AIRSPACE PROXIMITY LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE VIGOROUS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS INVOF OF TSRA. UNTIL THAT TIME SOME BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD SKIES CLEAR...OR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG BEFORE TSRA MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TSRA AND IF CONDIFENCE GROWS IN TIMING AND ONSET...THIS WILL BE REFINED. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAUMGARDT SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN BOTH COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN DIFFICULTY FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND +14 TO +16 DEG C AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OWING TO STRONG MIXING. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY QPF...AND THE HRRR OFFERS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110 KT H25 JET STREAK AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. A WEAK FROPA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY ON MON...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. THINK THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 21-00Z. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE H7-H3 LAYER AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BIG TIME DIFFERENCES IN THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE NAM SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER CYS ON MON AFTN...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS 200 J/KG AT MOST. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE FROM EITHER MODEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANYTHING SEVERE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ON TUE. THE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. MAINTAINED AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS LITTLE CONCERN FOR STRONGER CONVECTION DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THE MODELS SHOW THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUE...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER FOR HIGHS GIVEN THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 MODELS TRENDING WARMER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM MID WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH SOME 90S INTO THE PLAINS. 90 DEGREE HIGHS LIKELY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS LATE INTO THE WEEK IN PLACES LIKE CHADRON AND SCOTTS BLUFF. MODELS ALSO TRENDING DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. YESTERDAYS EC AND GFS BOTH WERE SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. LAST NIGHTS EC AND GFS BOTH INDICATED SPLITTING ENERGY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE REST OF THE ENERGY MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION AND THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COOL AND WET AND HOT AND DRY RESPECTIVELY. NOT REMOTELY CONFIDENT IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE FEW AND VERY FAR BETWEEN. STRONG ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015 WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT LUSK...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MON WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL ARRIVE ON TUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...SML FIRE WEATHER...CLH