Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/11/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
641 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTH AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST ELSEWHERE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWEHERE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...AND THUS ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE BY CLOSE TO AN INCH
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY THIS STILL MEANS THAT
1.50" PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF ARKANSAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY FROM TEXAS. 6Z NAM AND 5Z HRRR ARE BY FAR THE MOST
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS FEATURE...EVEN BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/WRF ARE MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH FFG
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS STILL WELL OVER 2" FOR 6HRS AND 1.5" FOR
2HRS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...AND THE 6Z HRRR COMING IN QUITE A
BIT DRIER...THE PREVAILING THINKING IS THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NATURAL STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS KEEPING
THE CENTER OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE.
SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT FOR THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EVEN HERE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 90 74 93 75 / 30 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 83 69 90 71 / 50 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 94 76 94 76 / 10 0 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 91 70 93 72 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 70 92 72 / 50 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 70 93 72 / 20 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 91 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 93 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
359 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...AND THUS ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE BY CLOSE TO AN INCH
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY THIS STILL MEANS THAT
1.50" PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF ARKANSAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY FROM TEXAS. 6Z NAM AND 5Z HRRR ARE BY FAR THE MOST
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS FEATURE...EVEN BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/WRF ARE MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH FFG
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS STILL WELL OVER 2" FOR 6HRS AND 1.5" FOR
2HRS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...AND THE 6Z HRRR COMING IN QUITE A
BIT DRIER...THE PREVAILING THINKING IS THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NATURAL STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS KEEPING
THE CENTER OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE.
SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT FOR THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EVEN HERE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 90 74 93 75 / 30 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 83 69 90 71 / 50 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 94 76 94 76 / 10 0 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 91 70 93 72 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 70 92 72 / 50 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 70 93 72 / 20 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 91 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 93 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
855 AM MST FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED IN PORTIONS OF
GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND NRN COCHISE COUNTY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
SHOWS JET SEGMENTS LINED UP TO TRAVERSE THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING SLIGHT BACKING OF MID LEVEL WINDS TO A MORE DUE SOUTH
TO NORTH DIRECTION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN SLIGHT
NORTHWARD PUSH OF CLOUD MASS OVER BAJA/NW SONORA. 315K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWS ADEQUATE LIFT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD 06-12Z TONIGHT. THIS
POINTS TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS WILL MOVE BACK EDGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HRRR AND NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS QPF FIELDS ALL
POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT TSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA NORTH
AND EAST OF KTUS-KFHU LINE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TSRA COULD GUST TO 35 KTS. OTHERWISE SFC WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT S TO SW WINDS 10-15 KTS G 20KTS AFT 11/18Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW
WINDS 10-20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND DURING MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTED MAINLY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION IN FAR SE AZ IN WHICH A MOIST PLUME CAN BE
SEEN EXTENDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALONG THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY HAVE
RESULTED IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
MOVED CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER THEN BEGINS TO NUDGE JUST
SOUTH COCHISE COUNTY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
TYPICALLY SHUTS STORMS DOWN BY ELIMINATING THE SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES
THAT HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP VIA SOLAR HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DROZD
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST WED JUL 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN USUAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONSOON SEASON...AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DESPITE THE LACK OF STORM ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL RADAR ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSHOWERS THAT SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY HIGHER TERRAIN A FEW HOURS AGO. 00Z/03Z PSR
BALLOONS INDICATED THE DEEP MIXING PROFILE TODAY AND A THINNING PWAT
SFC DOWN AROUND THE 1 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH DOMINANT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PROFILE. THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALSO SHUNTED THE STORM ACTIVITY
OFF WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTH...KEEPING AREAS OF NM...UT...AND CO
BUSY WITH STORMS THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE RADAR SCOPES WERE GENERALLY QUIET TONIGHT...STRONG
WESTERLY GAP/SUNDOWNER WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES
BETWEEN SAN DIEGO AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES. LATEST OBS OUT OF EL CENTRO
NAS HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S WITH SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN
BLOWING DUST. EVENING CROSS SECTION MODEL FCSTS INDICATE THE STABLE
LAYER DEFLECTION AND RESULTING GUSTY SFC WINDS INTO THE IMPERIAL
VALLEY...AND EVEN A BIT FURTHER INTO THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF
IMPERIAL COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE I8 GRADE INTO IN-KO-PAH THROUGH THURSDAY
AM.
GRID UPDATES TONIGHT INCLUDED EXPANDING THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY
BLOWING DUST/SAND WORDING THROUGH EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL OVERNIGHT. THE
GFS-GEM-NAM 00Z RUNS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP ACTIVITY
BUBBLING UP OVER GILA AND FAR EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY SIMILAR TO THE THIN BAND OF ACTIVITY OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EVENING HI-RES FCSTS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSED...BUT THE HRRR SAT FCST PRODUCT DOES INDICATE SOME COOLER
CLOUD TOPS AND MAYBE A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE RIM AND EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS WHILE MOSTLY ZEROING OUT POPS FOR
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST WITH LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND ADDITIONAL DRYING WORKING INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES
INSTABILITY SOLELY RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE...WITH LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION (SANS SRN GILA COUNTY). THEREFORE...ATTENTION TURNS TO
IMPACTS FROM GUSTY WINDS INCLUDING THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE AND UNSEASONABLE SUNDOWNER EVENT THROUGH SWRN IMPERIAL
COUNTY. THE AREA WEST OF EL CENTRO THROUGH THE IN-KO-PAH GORGE ALONG
I-8 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CREATING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...JUSTIFYING
A WIND ADVISORY FOR JUST THE SMALL SOUTHWEST SEGMENT OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY. WHILE STRONGER WINDS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TRADITIONALLY THE TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS SUGGESTS
AROUND AND THE FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST
GUSTS AND LARGEST IMPACTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH AN
ANOMALOUS JET STREAK AND VORT MAX RAPIDLY SWINGING THROUGH THE
MOHAVE DESERT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT...12Z
KTWC AND KNKX SOUNDINGS SAMPLED H2 WESTERLY WINDS NEAR
100KT...CORRESPONDING TO A U-WIND COMPONENT ANOMALY OF AN IMPRESSIVE
4-5 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE (VERY UN-MONSOON
SEASON LIKE). GIVEN THE UNUSUAL JET STRENGTH...A NICE BULLSEYE OF Q
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY CENTER LIFTS INTO NWRN
ARIZONA...HOWEVER ONLY BRUSHES EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES.
TO VARYING DEGREES...MODELS DO INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
BACKED MIDLEVEL WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING LOW. THUS...SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA WERE RETAINED. THIS LOW ALSO WILL PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES.
HIGH TEMPS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. AS THE FIRST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS...TROUGHING
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. THUS ANTICIPATE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WITH RENEWED
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IS PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF....WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION VERSUS THE ECMWF. EVEN
TAKING THE GFS AT FACE VALUE...1000-700MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS LOOK
BORDERLINE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MODEST
FORECAST CAPE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL IMPINGE UPON SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A SITUATION WHERE STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND BLOWING DUST WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT. OF NOTE...THE GFS BRINGS A PERTURBATION/VORT
MAX THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY BUT CANNOT PUT A LOT OF STOCK IN
THAT SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING...TEMPS
BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW FOR MONDAY THAN THE ECMWF RESULTING IN MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT
STILL LOOKS BORDERLINE. THE GFS THEN SHOWS SOME DECLINE IN MOISTURE
TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGHING MOVES ASHORE AND THE RIDGE SAGS
SOUTHWARD A BIT. STILL NOT AS DRY AS ECMWF BUT ENOUGH SUCH THAT
STORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE MEAGER. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AT MANY OF THE LOW DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING
THE 110 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ELEVATED WEST SFC WINDS TO PERSIST LATE INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE 09/10-11Z AM HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING
THE SHIFT FOR KPHX...BUT BETTER FOR THE SATELLITE AIRFIELDS OF KSDL
AND KIWA. EARLY EVENING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
GNLY AOA 25KFT MOVING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY AM.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS...IN EXCESS OF
35KT...WHICH WILL LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
SUNRISE/13Z WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THEN PICK BACK UP NEAR 18Z
ALBEIT WEAKER. EARLY EVENING SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...GNLY AOA 20-25KFT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AND UNFAVORABLE
FOR EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND STORMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...TO MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SEASON SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...THOUGH COULD BEGIN MOVING
WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN A 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE DURING THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE TO A 15-25 PERCENT RANGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS
AND DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THIS TIME...THOUGH STRONGER
THAN USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...NOLTE/INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
844 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BRING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS HAVE PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. 12Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.09 INCH. THUS MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS OF
THE SJV. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...IR/WV IMAGERY INDICATING THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...IS FINALLY PUSHING INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BEING THE MOST FAVORED AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS FOR THE
PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE LOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES OF THE COASTAL RANGE. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THROUGH 500 AM PDT THIS
MORNING WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR CWFA TODAY
AND PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUDS...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
7-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TODAY. THE 06Z WRF IS INDICATING THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD...BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ON FRIDAY AS THE
PREVAILING AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
THIS WEEKEND. RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD AND RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING DRIER AIR AT
THE MID/UPPER LAYERS SO OUR AREA SO EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND FREE OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST ON
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
INDICATING CENTRAL CA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY UNTIL 03Z. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-09 113:1905 78:1936 81:2008 55:1983
KFAT 07-10 112:2008 81:1974 82:2008 54:1904
KFAT 07-11 110:1961 82:1888 78:2002 52:1974
KBFL 07-09 113:1905 83:1980 84:2008 52:1923
KBFL 07-10 113:1905 82:1936 85:2008 51:1914
KBFL 07-11 110:1961 83:1936 79:2002 51:1906
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
750 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION
TOMORROW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES AND LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG RESTRICTED TO TYPICAL AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP THIS MORNING. A UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WAS JUST
SOUTH OF MONTEREY CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ONLY
DROP SOUTH TO SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST AND FILLING IN BY THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
STARTING TO KICK UP OVER NW KERN COUNTY NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN
LOST HILLS AND BUTTONWILLOW. THE HRRR MODEL INITIATED WELL AND
SHOWED THESE SHOWERS BEING SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE TO THE NE. NOT
MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF TODAY. HOWEVER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MTNS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND MT BALDY IN L.A.
COUNTY WAS INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST THERE WAS ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
MOISTURE POOL WAS AROUND 700 MB OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS WHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE COMBINATION OF MODEST PW...AND WESTERLY STEERING WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH WILL HELP STORMS MOVE ALONG MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES AROUND THE LOCKWOOD VALLEY AREA WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALLY FLOODED ROADS.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE VERY DEEP
MARINE LAYER OR DEEP (STABLE)MOIST LAYER AS HIGH AS 5000 FT DEEP
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OR EVEN SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND LA CANADA AND LA
CRESCENTA FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALL DAY ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR VALLEYS IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. OR...THERE COULD BE A REVERSE
CLEARING SITUATION WHERE THE BEACHES CLEAR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S AS WELL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR LANCASTER THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
AROUND 97 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING NE...ANOTHER DEEPER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND NUDGE INTO THE MOST SOUTHERN
PORTION OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BOTH
FRI AND SAT A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER AZ/EASTERN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TRIES TO NUDGE IN UNDER THE TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO GET MORE CONTROL OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH RETREATS A BIT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
TUE/WED WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND VALLEYS...LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHILE COAST AND SOME COASTAL VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION WILL BE
SHALLOWER SO VALLEYS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKER WHILE A FEW BEACH CITIES
MIGHT FIND IT TOUGH TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...09/0703Z.
AT 06Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS BASED AROUND 4300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KLAX AND KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...09/300 AM.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...RM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
312 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
UPDATED MARINE SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST
AND SOME VALLEYS WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP THIS MORNING. A UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WAS JUST
SOUTH OF MONTEREY CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ONLY
DROP SOUTH TO SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST AND FILLING IN BY THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
STARTING TO KICK UP OVER NW KERN COUNTY NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN
LOST HILLS AND BUTTONWILLOW. THE HRRR MODEL INITIATED WELL AND
SHOWED THESE SHOWERS BEING SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE TO THE NE. NOT
MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF TODAY. HOWEVER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MTNS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND MT BALDY IN L.A.
COUNTY WAS INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST THERE WAS ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
MOISTURE POOL WAS AROUND 700 MB OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS WHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE COMBINATION OF MODEST PW...AND WESTERLY STEERING WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH WILL HELP STORMS MOVE ALONG MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES AROUND THE LOCKWOOD VALLEY AREA WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALLY FLOODED ROADS.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE VERY DEEP
MARINE LAYER OR DEEP (STABLE)MOIST LAYER AS HIGH AS 5000 FT DEEP
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OR EVEN SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND LA CANADA AND LA
CRESCENTA FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALL DAY ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR VALLEYS IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. OR...THERE COULD BE A REVERSE
CLEARING SITUATION WHERE THE BEACHES CLEAR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S AS WELL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR LANCASTER THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
AROUND 97 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING NE...ANOTHER DEEPER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND NUDGE INTO THE MOST SOUTHERN
PORTION OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BOTH
FRI AND SAT A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER AZ/EASTERN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TRIES TO NUDGE IN UNDER THE TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO GET MORE CONTROL OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH RETREATS A BIT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
TUE/WED WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND VALLEYS...LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHILE COAST AND SOME COASTAL VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION WILL BE
SHALLOWER SO VALLEYS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKER WHILE A FEW BEACH CITIES
MIGHT FIND IT TOUGH TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...09/0703Z.
AT 06Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS BASED AROUND 4300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KLAX AND KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...09/300 AM.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
325 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/WV IMAGERY INDICATING THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...IS FINALLY PUSHING INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BEING THE MOST FAVORED AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS FOR THE
PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE LOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES OF THE COASTAL RANGE. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THROUGH 500 AM PDT THIS
MORNING WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR CWFA TODAY
AND PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUDS...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
7-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TODAY. THE 06Z WRF IS INDICATING THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD...BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ON FRIDAY AS THE
PREVAILING AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
THIS WEEKEND. RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD AND RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING DRIER AIR AT
THE MID/UPPER LAYERS SO OUR AREA SO EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND FREE OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST ON
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
INDICATING CENTRAL CA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-09 113:1905 78:1936 81:2008 55:1983
KFAT 07-10 112:2008 81:1974 82:2008 54:1904
KFAT 07-11 110:1961 82:1888 78:2002 52:1974
KBFL 07-09 113:1905 83:1980 84:2008 52:1923
KBFL 07-10 113:1905 82:1936 85:2008 51:1914
KBFL 07-11 110:1961 83:1936 79:2002 51:1906
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING CAZ089-091.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST
AND SOME VALLEYS WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP THIS MORNING. A UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WAS JUST
SOUTH OF MONTEREY CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ONLY
DROP SOUTH TO SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST AND FILLING IN BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALREADY
STARTING TO KICK UP OVER NW KERN COUNTY IN A DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN
LOST HILLS AND BUTTONWILLOW. THE HRRR MODEL INITIATED WELL AND
SHOWED THESE SHOWERS BEING SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE TO THE NE. NOT
MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF TODAY. HOWEVER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MTNS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND MT BALDY IN L.A.
COUNTY WAS INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST THERE WAS ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
MOISTURE POOL WAS AROUND 700 MB OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS WHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERCEPTIBLE WATERS WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH OF AVAILABLE PW TO WORK WITH. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS...AND WESTERLY STEERING WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP STORMS
MOVE ALONG MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AROUND
THE LOCKWOOD VALLEY AREA WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY FLOODED
ROADS.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE VERY DEEP
MARINE LAYER OR DEEP (STABLE)MOIST LAYER AS HIGH AS 5000 FT DEEP
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OR EVEN SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND LA CANADA AND LA
CRESCENTA FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALL DAY ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR VALLEYS IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. OR...THERE COULD BE A REVERSE
CLEARING SITUATION WHERE THE BEACHES CLEAR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S AS WELL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR LANCASTER THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
AROUND 97 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING NE...ANOTHER DEEPER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND NUDGE INTO THE MOST SOUTHERN
PORTION OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BOTH
FRI AND SAT A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER AZ/EASTERN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TRIES TO NUDGE IN UNDER THE TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO GET MORE CONTROL OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH RETREATS A BIT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
TUE/WED WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND VALLEYS...LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHILE COAST AND SOME COASTAL VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION WILL BE
SHALLOWER SO VALLEYS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKER WHILE A FEW BEACH CITIES
MIGHT FIND IT TOUGH TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...09/0703Z.
AT 06Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS BASED AROUND 4300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KLAX AND KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...08/900 PM.
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE E SBA CHANNEL
THIS EVENING...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA IN ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING
TO SCA LEVELS IN THE OUTER WATERS SUN AND MON.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
740 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTWARD. OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED AND CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
MODEST AND RATHER DEEP QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY THE
MAIN FACTOR LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS AND STABILITY ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
MINIMAL ACTIVITY. INDEED GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
BOULDER IS PRESENTLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH LESS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT
ELIMINATED THEM COMPLETELY. WHATEVER DOES MANAGE TO GET GOING
DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HRRR RUNS GRADUALLY BACKING AWAY
FROM ANY ACTIVITY WHATSOEVER. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER
STILL WITH EVEN LESS CONVECTION THAT TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
NORTH TEXAS WITH THE MID LEVELS OVER COLORADO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...
WITH MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
THE COMBINATION OF LESS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS WL ALLOW FOR ISOLD COVERAGE AT BEST
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE LOWER
90S. FOR MONDAY...THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT TO THE SOUTH A BIT. THE GFS
DOES APPEAR TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MORE CLOUDS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS
MONDAY AFTN AND EVNG. ON TUESDAY...A BROAD FLAT RIDGE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WITH A PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
COLORADO. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PREVALENT IN THE MID
LEVELS SO ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG. THE OVERALL PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MDL RUN SHOW A DRIER
FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN CO. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SATURDAY DOES NOT PROMISE MUCH MORE IN
THAT DEPARTMENT. WINDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND NOT TERRIBLY ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE DURING THE
EVENING. DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 06Z. WILL KEEP TS OUT OF THE
TAFS AND IF ONE APPROACHES WILL AMEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AROUND 06Z. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. VISIBLE STLT SHOWING SUFFICIENT CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. WL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST MESOETA
SHOWS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS FM ROUGHLY 09Z-
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING. NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD CAPES OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WITH VALUES OF 1400 TO 2200 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. DECENT
PW VALUES AS WELL...0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES. BUT NAM12 QG IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOWS DECENT DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WHICH MAY KEEP
THE AMS CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHICH WL WIN OUT BUT IT
DOES LOOK SUFFICIENT ENUF TO CAP THINGS. FOR NOW WL KEEP SCT
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS
NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...BUT EVERYTHING ELSE WOULD SUGGEST QUITE LIMITED
CONVECTION. STICKING WITH KEEPING ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL EVENTUALLY
BE SOME WEAK WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...AT LEAST BRINGING A
LITTLE LIFT TO HELP MARGINAL CONVECTION AND BRING SOME COOLING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS US NEAR 90 DURING THE WEEKEND THEN DROPPING
INTO THE 80S WITH SEASONAL POPS BY MID WEEK...AND THAT LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z. IF A THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER THE
AIRPORTS THEN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE
PASSING STORMS. MAY NEED TO KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 09Z...POTENTIAL FOR LOW STATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DOES
EXIST...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRPORT. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND LESS TSTM COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MID SHIFT DID AN
EXCELLENT JOB DESCRIBING THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION AND THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS THINKING. IMPRESSIVE LLJ AT ILN OF 40 TO 50
KTS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 500MB
TEMPS ARE WARM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, THEY
WILL BE COOLING AS WILL 700MB TEMPS (10C POOL OVER US THIS
MORNING). WE ARE IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250MB/300MB JET. OUR BIGGEST WHAT IF REMAINS TIMING AS THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING. THE CAVEAT AS
MENTIONED IF A COLD POOL FORMS, THE TENDENCY IS FOR THE EVENT TO
OCCUR FASTER AND THUS INCREASE OUR SEVERE CHANCES. RIGHT NOW THE
SPC ENHANCED OUTLOOK REGION DOES LOOK VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ALL OF
THE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY PARAMETERS.
WE ARE HEDGING A LITTLE BIT FASTER BASED ON MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS BRINGING MEASURABLE TO PHL BY 00Z. HAVE NOTICED A COUPLE
OF THE LATEST HRRR AND COSPA RUNS ARE SLOWING TSTMS DOWN JUST A
TAD.
WITH CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING, WE ARE HOLDING ON TO PREDICTED MAX
TEMPS AND THE GAP BETWEEN PREDICTED AND OBSERVED TEMPS (GENERALLY
LOWER) IS CLOSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE NY-PA BORDER. THE GREATEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT SPREADS INTO THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHEN UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND DPVA FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES.
THE UPSTREAM MCS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA IN THE
22Z-03Z PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEEPER INTO THE
WARM SECTOR TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST (BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT). POPS THIS
EVENING ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ AS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED BY PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS FROM
WET DOWNBURSTS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT WOULD
ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL A BIT NORTHWEST OF PHILA. HODOGRAPHS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES UNTIL THE EVENING,
WHEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HELPS ENHANCES ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY
CONSIDERABLY.
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL CERTAINLY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS: MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD SHOW SATURATION
IN A DEEP 15 KFT DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, PWATS 2-2.25 INCHES, AND A
FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (I.E., ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE FOR DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT). ASIDE FROM THE 00Z NAM, WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER,
GUIDANCE HAS PLACED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR THE FRONT TO BE
NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR OUR AREA, EXPECT THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN TO
BE RATHER SHORT AS THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AT A STEADY
PACE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT A BIT BUT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVG AWAY FROM THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDD PD AND HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE W.
THEREFORE, A DRY FRI IS IN STORE AND A NICE WEEKEND AS WELL LOOKS
TO BE IN THE CARDS, OR AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU SAT AND INTO SUN. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND CMC ARE DRY THRU 13/00Z MON. THE GFS HAS SOME VERY LOW POPS
(DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA) N AND W. SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY SOME VERY
LOW POPS, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF IT WAS COMPLETELY DRY.
AFTER 00Z MON, BOTH THE CMC AND ECMWF BRING IN PRECIP WITH A LOW
FROM THE W AND A WMFNT. THE GFS IS DRY THROUGH 13/12Z, BUT BRINGS
IN SOME PRECIP AFTER 13/12Z. THE EC IS QUITE WET ON MON. THE CMC
IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND THE GFS IS DRY. THEN BY TUE, THE GFS IS
THE WETTEST MDL,. WITH ANOTHER LOW AND AN APPROACHING CDFNT, WHILE
THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC IS THE COMPROMISE SOLN. SO, WHAT CAN
WE DEDUCE FROM THIS? AT LEAST PART OF MON IS LIKELY TO BE WET AND
PSBLY MORE. TUE IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND WED AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON WED. THE EC HINTS AT SOME BUT IS DRIER.
BUT BOTH DAYS COULD STILL BE UNSETTLED.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT OR A BIT ABV NRML THRU THE PD, BUT DEWPTS SHUD
BE COMFORTABLE UNTIL PSBLY TWD THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAF MAINTAINS A HIGH TSRA IMPACT ACROSS OUR TERMINAL AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT FOR NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS WITH
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT FOR ANY DELMARVA AIRPORTS SOUTH OF
KILG.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...TERMINALS START VFR WITH WINDS SLOWING
BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTINESS INCREASING, GETTING
CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS.
WE CONTINUE A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG TSRAS AFFECTING ALL OF
OUR TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE QUITE LIKELY WITH IFR
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
LIKELY. HIGHEST SVR CHANCE KRDG AND KABE. NOT SURE ABOUT A
DOUBLE BARREL (LESSER SECOND) SHOT AND WE HAVE SHOWERS FOR NOW TO
COVER THE CHANCE.
LATER THIS EVENING, THE CFP IS PREDICTED WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
VFR.
OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH WIND WE BELIEVE TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR, OR AT THE MOST A SCATTERED VFR
DECK LINGERING.
FRIDAY...VFR NO CIG EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THERE MIGHT BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTINESS ONCE BETTER
MIXING OCCURS DURING THE MORNING. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY AT
AIRPORTS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, SO NOT INCLUDED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN...VFR. W TO NW WIND UNDER 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY W ON SUN.
SUN NIGHT - MON...MOSTLY VFR. SOME AFTN SHRA/TSRA PSBL. LOW TO
MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. THE MAIN
WX-CONCERN ON THE WATERS TODAY WILL BE TSTMS. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH MON...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PD.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE AS LOW PRES ON FRI MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WIND
GUSTS WILL GENLY BE 15 TO 20 KT ON FRI, THEN 10-15 KT THRU SUN,
BEFORE APPROACHING 20 KT AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. DIRECTIONS WILL
BE OUT OF THE N THRU SAT NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SW TO W SAT
NIGHT THU MON.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MID SHIFT DID AN
EXCELLENT JOB DESCRIBING THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION AND THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS THINKING. IMPRESSIVE LLJ AT ILN OF 40 TO 50
KTS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 500MB
TEMPS ARE WARM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, THEY
WILL BE COOLING AS WILL 700MB TEMPS (10C POOL OVER US THIS
MORNING). WE ARE IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250MB/300MB JET. OUR BIGGEST WHAT IF REMAINS TIMING AS THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING. THE CAVEAT AS
MENTIONED IF A COLD POOL FORMS, THE TENDENCY IS FOR THE EVENT TO
OCCUR FASTER AND THUS INCREASE OUR SEVERE CHANCES. RIGHT NOW THE
SPC ENHANCED OUTLOOK REGION DOES LOOK VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ALL OF
THE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY PARAMETERS.
WE ARE HEDGING A LITTLE BIT FASTER BASED ON MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS BRINGING MEASURABLE TO PHL BY 00Z. HAVE NOTICED A COUPLE
OF THE LATEST HRRR AND COSPA RUNS ARE SLOWING TSTMS DOWN JUST A
TAD.
WITH CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING, WE ARE HOLDING ON TO PREDICTED MAX
TEMPS AND THE GAP BETWEEN PREDICTED AND OBSERVED TEMPS (GENERALLY
LOWER) IS CLOSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE NY-PA BORDER. THE GREATEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT SPREADS INTO THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHEN UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND DPVA FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES.
THE UPSTREAM MCS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA IN THE
22Z-03Z PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEEPER INTO THE
WARM SECTOR TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST (BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT). POPS THIS
EVENING ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ AS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED BY PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS FROM
WET DOWNBURSTS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT WOULD
ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL A BIT NORTHWEST OF PHILA. HODOGRAPHS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES UNTIL THE EVENING,
WHEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HELPS ENHANCES ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY
CONSIDERABLY.
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL CERTAINLY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS: MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD SHOW SATURATION
IN A DEEP 15 KFT DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, PWATS 2-2.25 INCHES, AND A
FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (I.E., ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE FOR DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT). ASIDE FROM THE 00Z NAM, WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER,
GUIDANCE HAS PLACED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR THE FRONT TO BE
NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR OUR AREA, EXPECT THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN TO
BE RATHER SHORT AS THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AT A STEADY
PACE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT A BIT BUT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVG AWAY FROM THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDD PD AND HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE W.
THEREFORE, A DRY FRI IS IN STORE AND A NICE WEEKEND AS WELL LOOKS
TO BE IN THE CARDS, OR AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU SAT AND INTO SUN. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND CMC ARE DRY THRU 13/00Z MON. THE GFS HAS SOME VERY LOW POPS
(DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA) N AND W. SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY SOME VERY
LOW POPS, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF IT WAS COMPLETELY DRY.
AFTER 00Z MON, BOTH THE CMC AND ECMWF BRING IN PRECIP WITH A LOW
FROM THE W AND A WMFNT. THE GFS IS DRY THROUGH 13/12Z, BUT BRINGS
IN SOME PRECIP AFTER 13/12Z. THE EC IS QUITE WET ON MON. THE CMC
IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND THE GFS IS DRY. THEN BY TUE, THE GFS IS
THE WETTEST MDL,. WITH ANOTHER LOW AND AN APPROACHING CDFNT, WHILE
THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC IS THE COMPROMISE SOLN. SO, WHAT CAN
WE DEDUCE FROM THIS? AT LEAST PART OF MON IS LIKELY TO BE WET AND
PSBLY MORE. TUE IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND WED AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON WED. THE EC HINTS AT SOME BUT IS DRIER.
BUT BOTH DAYS COULD STILL BE UNSETTLED.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT OR A BIT ABV NRML THRU THE PD, BUT DEWPTS SHUD
BE COMFORTABLE UNTIL PSBLY TWD THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EXPECT VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND A
LIGHT WIND. ADDED A 2-HR TSRA TEMPO GROUP IN THE 00Z TAFS FOR EACH
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHEN THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF
STORMS TODAY THAN USUAL. WE WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT
THE IMPACT FROM VSBYS AND WINDS ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO OBTAIN MORE
CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING, BEFORE A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SUN...VFR. W TO NW WIND UNDER 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY W ON SUN.
SUN NIGHT - MON...MOSTLY VFR. SOME AFTN SHRA/TSRA PSBL. LOW TO
MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. THE MAIN
WX-CONCERN ON THE WATERS TODAY WILL BE TSTMS. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH MON...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PD.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE AS LOW PRES ON FRI MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WIND
GUSTS WILL GENLY BE 15 TO 20 KT ON FRI, THEN 10-15 KT THRU SUN,
BEFORE APPROACHING 20 KT AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. DIRECTIONS WILL
BE OUT OF THE N THRU SAT NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SW TO W SAT
NIGHT THU MON.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
851 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL
CHANNELS ARRIVING FROM THE PACIFIC OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE FIRST
IS RIDING WELL TO THE NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER TOP A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE SECOND
CHANNEL IS ARRIVING OVER THE BAJA REGION AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTH OF THIS FLOW...A BROAD WEST TO EAST
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST CONUS/FL PENINSULA. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A STEADY FLOW OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS
DRIER AIR ALOFT HELPED TO KEEP THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DOWN TODAY. WE DEFINITELY STILL SAW SCATTERED
UPDRAFTS OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT...BUT THE ACTIVITY WAS NOT AS INTENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS
PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS
EVEN A BIT LESS ACTIVITY THAN WAS SEEN TODAY.
THE DRY AIR ALOFT WAS SAMPLED QUITE WELL BY THE 00Z KTBW
SOUNDING...SHOWING A "V" CONFIGURATION ABOVE 700MB. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED UNDER A LARGE UPPER RIDGE...THE LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-
LEVELS ARE ALSO ON THE WEAKER SIDE...WHICH AIDED IN KEEPING THE
INTENSITY OF THE STORMS TODAY DOWN.
THE MOST ACTIVE STORMS AS OF 830 PM ARE OVER LEVY COUNTY...AND
EXPECT THESE TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY AROUND 02Z. EAST COAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE NOW COLLIDING ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. ANYTIME YOU SEE THIS KIND OF
DEFINED BOUNDARY COLLISION...A FEW ADDITIONAL LATE EVENING STORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...EVEN WITH THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...SO FAR...WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH...AND
JUST HAVE 30% POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 03Z FROM I-75 WESTWARD TO
THE COAST. END ALL ACTIVITY FOR THE LAND MASS AFTER 03Z WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
SETUP. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE WEST-
COAST SEA BREEZE FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS NOT FAVORABLE TOWARD DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB...AND MEAGER LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS. A FEW STORMS HERE AND THERE WILL BE ABLE
TO ROOT THEMSELVES...BUT WILL DESCRIBE THE COVERAGE GENERALLY AS
WIDELY SCATTERED. IF ANY PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE
FAVORED FOR A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IT WILL BE THE NATURE
COAST...WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY A FEW OF THE MODEL MEMBERS
TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE DAY.
GFS/NAM DO BOTH SHOW MID-LEVEL TO SURFACE THETAE DIFFERENCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-25K. THESE VALUES...OBVIOUSLY
CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTION...HAVE BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL STUDIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORMATION OF WET MICROBURSTS. SO THE STORMS
THAT WE DO SEE MIGHT VERY WELL HAVE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM BEFORE 03Z AT THE
TERMINALS...BUT OTHERWISE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
BELOW CLIMO FOR MID JULY ON SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS. WILL MENTION VCTS FOR NOW AFTER 18-19Z...HOWEVER
BEST CHANCES FOR LATER DAY STORMS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO EXIST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TERMINALS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OTHER
THAN TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA...WITH FLOW TURNING WEAKLY ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 79 93 / 30 30 20 30
FMY 76 94 76 94 / 20 20 10 30
GIF 76 96 76 95 / 10 20 10 50
SRQ 77 90 78 92 / 30 20 20 30
BKV 74 94 74 95 / 20 30 20 40
SPG 79 93 80 92 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
946 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN CALM WINDS FOR
THE EVENING SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THE DWPTS ARE STILL IN THE 60S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING THE TEMPS
FROM DROPPING QUICKLY. STORMS TO THE SW ARE PART OF AN UPPER WAVE
THAT WILL BE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT NOT INCREASING THE THREAT TOO MUCH UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SO FAR, THE FORECAST IS GOING WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
LOW CLOUD DECK FINALLY EXITING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT IS SLOWER
TO CLEAR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE MORE IN A WEST-
EAST CONFIGURATION. DIURNAL CUMULUS IS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS...
AFFILIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS KANSAS.
MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE TRACKING OF THIS CONVECTION.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TOP OF SOME
RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS...AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF...ARE FOCUSING THE BULK OF IT JUST TO OUR WEST...SPREADING
INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AFTER ABOUT 3 AM.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS ONLY HINTS AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST CWA TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE THUS CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAINLY FROM ABOUT PEORIA-
SPRINGFIELD WESTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS GENERALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR...DEPENDING ON
BOUNDARY LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING
WITH OUR NORTH THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE
IN POSITION TO CONTINUE TO FEED HIGH THETA-E AIR NORTHEAST INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MCS WHICH MAY CONTINUE THE STORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND AGAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURS
SATURDAY DOES TO THE BOUNDARY LOCATION...WILL ULTIMATELY DECIDE
WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION FORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHIFT THE GREATER RAIN
THREAT TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY DROPS OFF WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE
AND PLACEMENT OF THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MOST MODELS SHOWING EXTREME INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER
OUR AREA WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+ DGREES/KM...BUT 700 MB
TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN +12 TO +14 DEGREES C WHICH MAY TEND TO
SUPPRESS THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. THE LATEST ECMWF
DOES SHIFT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY BRING A BREAK FROM THE DAILY CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TEND TO OVERAMPLIFY THESE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TROFS INTO
THE LAKES RESULTING IN A MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSH TO THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE ULTIMATE FRONTAL LOCATION
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. WILL NEED TO SEE A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MAKING
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UNTIL THEN...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST EARLIER...VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED LOW AND BKN CIRRUS
THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV FORECAST WAS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER THE MORE RECENT HRRR AND NAM ARE BOTH
IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.
HAVE TRIED TO TIME BEST CHANCES WITH VC, KEEPING THE TS IN THE
SHORTER RANGE, ESP WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIF THUNDER IN MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY SW OF THE OFFICE. CONCERN FOR VIS REDUCTION MAY
WORK INTO THE NEXT FORECAST IN BMI/CMI REGION IF THE PRECIP IS
A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
720 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
LOW CLOUD DECK FINALLY EXITING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT IS SLOWER
TO CLEAR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE MORE IN A WEST-
EAST CONFIGURATION. DIURNAL CUMULUS IS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS...
AFFILIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS KANSAS.
MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE TRACKING OF THIS CONVECTION.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TOP OF SOME
RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS...AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF...ARE FOCUSING THE BULK OF IT JUST TO OUR WEST...SPREADING
INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AFTER ABOUT 3 AM.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS ONLY HINTS AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST CWA TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE THUS CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAINLY FROM ABOUT PEORIA-
SPRINGFIELD WESTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS GENERALLY A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR...DEPENDING ON
BOUNDARY LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING
WITH OUR NORTH THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE
IN POSITION TO CONTINUE TO FEED HIGH THETA-E AIR NORTHEAST INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MCS WHICH MAY CONTINUE THE STORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND AGAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURS
SATURDAY DOES TO THE BOUNDARY LOCATION...WILL ULTIMATELY DECIDE
WHERE THE NEW CONVECTION FORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHIFT THE GREATER RAIN
THREAT TO OUR NORTH BY LATER SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY DROPS OFF WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE
AND PLACEMENT OF THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MOST MODELS SHOWING EXTREME INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER
OUR AREA WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+ DGREES/KM...BUT 700 MB
TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN +12 TO +14 DEGREES C WHICH MAY TEND TO
SUPPRESS THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. THE LATEST ECMWF
DOES SHIFT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY BRING A BREAK FROM THE DAILY CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TEND TO OVERAMPLIFY THESE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TROFS INTO
THE LAKES RESULTING IN A MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSH TO THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE ULTIMATE FRONTAL LOCATION
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. WILL NEED TO SEE A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MAKING
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UNTIL THEN...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST EARLIER...VERY WARM
AND HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED LOW AND BKN CIRRUS
THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV FORECAST WAS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER THE MORE RECENT HRRR AND NAM ARE BOTH
IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.
HAVE TRIED TO TIME BEST CHANCES WITH VC, KEEPING THE TS IN THE
SHORTER RANGE, ESP WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIF THUNDER IN MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY SW OF THE OFFICE. CONCERN FOR VIS REDUCTION MAY
WORK INTO THE NEXT FORECAST IN BMI/CMI REGION IF THE PRECIP IS
A BIT SLOWER TO THE AREA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO ERODE A BIT... WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL SEEING
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM ABOUT PEORIA-LINCOLN EASTWARD IN THE
LOWER CLOUDS...BUT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HRRR TRYING
TO SHOW THE CLOUDS CONTRACTING FROM ALL SIDES...WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW THE HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A BIT AND CONCENTRATED THE LOWER READINGS
ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1010MB LOW JUST NORTH OF KDNV...WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. AS THE LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...FRONT WILL SETTLE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...TODAY WILL BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DESPITE THE
DRYING TREND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SO PROSPECTS FOR CLEARING ARE BLEAK. DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
WITH FRONT GETTING PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOUTHWARD AS WELL
TONIGHT. BOTH GFS AND NAM NOW SHOW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORMING
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING E/SE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO FEATURE ONLY LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO
MATTOON LINE TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...HOWEVER IF 12Z MODELS SHIFT IT FURTHER NORTHWARD A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. AFTER
MORNING STORM COMPLEX TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
I-74 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...HOWEVER 00Z JULY 9 GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH WEAKER WITH THE
RIDGE. THIS MEANS THE ONCE DRY FORECAST WILL NOW BE REPLACED BY A
MORE UNSETTLED SCENARIO WHERE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT MCS LOOKS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING OVER
IOWA...THEN TRACK E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS NORTH
OF THE PEORIA AREA AT THAT TIME...TAPERING DOWN TO DRY CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF I-70. AFTER THAT...RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS ONCE
THOUGHT. END RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HUMID WEATHER
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
AREA OF IFR CEILINGS CONTRACTING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WERE
CENTERED ALONG THE KSPI-KCMI CORRIDOR AT 17Z. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND VFR BY AROUND
23Z...ALTHOUGH AM A BIT MORE SKEPTICAL FOR KCMI AND KEPT THEM MVFR
INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS ALREADY IMPROVING TO VFR AT KPIA AND
SHOULD FOLLOW SOON AT KBMI.
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT FOR POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
INCOMING CONVECTION. AM MOST WORRIED ABOUT KBMI...WHICH HAD OVER 4
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE SOME LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO GO ALONG WITH THE EXCESSIVELY WET
SOIL. WENT WITH 1SM VISIBILITY LATE NIGHT THERE...BUT WITH AROUND
4SM ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING TAF SITES ARE ALL CLOSE TO
HEAVY RAIN TRACKS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AS FOR
THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POST-12Z
TIME FRAME AS BEING MOST LIKELY FOR SHOWERS. DID NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER FOR NOW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1010 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO ERODE A BIT... WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL SEEING
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM ABOUT PEORIA-LINCOLN EASTWARD IN THE
LOWER CLOUDS...BUT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HRRR TRYING
TO SHOW THE CLOUDS CONTRACTING FROM ALL SIDES...WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW THE HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A BIT AND CONCENTRATED THE LOWER READINGS
ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1010MB LOW JUST NORTH OF KDNV...WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. AS THE LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...FRONT WILL SETTLE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...TODAY WILL BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DESPITE THE
DRYING TREND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SO PROSPECTS FOR CLEARING ARE BLEAK. DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
WITH FRONT GETTING PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOUTHWARD AS WELL
TONIGHT. BOTH GFS AND NAM NOW SHOW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORMING
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING E/SE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO FEATURE ONLY LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO
MATTOON LINE TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...HOWEVER IF 12Z MODELS SHIFT IT FURTHER NORTHWARD A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. AFTER
MORNING STORM COMPLEX TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
I-74 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...HOWEVER 00Z JULY 9 GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH WEAKER WITH THE
RIDGE. THIS MEANS THE ONCE DRY FORECAST WILL NOW BE REPLACED BY A
MORE UNSETTLED SCENARIO WHERE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT MCS LOOKS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING OVER
IOWA...THEN TRACK E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS NORTH
OF THE PEORIA AREA AT THAT TIME...TAPERING DOWN TO DRY CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF I-70. AFTER THAT...RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS ONCE
THOUGHT. END RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HUMID WEATHER
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIFR CLOUDS AND MVFR FOG THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE WE SHOULD
SEE VIS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS
LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
ALL TERMINAL SITES BY SUNSET, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MVFR FOG REDEVELOPS WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AT 8-12KT TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SHIMON
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN KS PER THE 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA. THIS
WAVE IS RATHER SUBTLE HOWEVER. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE
SPINNING OVER NV WHILE THE MEAN WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL NORTH ACROSS
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED JUST NORTH OF WICHITA
AND FORT SCOTT KANSAS. STRONGER DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE.
THINK SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER AS LONG AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE REMAINS ALOFT SINCE THERE IS NOT MUCH INHIBITION. ANY
SURFACE BASED STORMS TAPPING INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TORNADO IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IN WHEN
STORMS WILL FALL APART IS RATHER LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SOME QPF THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER ONE WOULD EXPECT THE WAVE TO
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OR SHEAR OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE POPS GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUES LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.
FOR SATURDAY, MODELS ARE SKETCHY ON WHETHER THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVERHEAD. THE NAM HAS SIGNS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY, WHILE THE GFS ADVECTS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NO SIGNS OF FORCING. IN GENERAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LESS BULLISH WITH THEIR QPF PROGS AND WITH HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH
THE DAY THINK THE GFS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER
EAST CENTRAL KS TO THE UPPER 90S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS BASED ON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED DEPTH. MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THAN IT SHOULD BE IN EASTERN KS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST OVER IA AND
MO. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET AS IT VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. TOWARDS SUNRISE AND
SHORTLY AFTER THE JET WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE KS/MO STATE. ALSO THE JET COULD
INTERACT WITH ANY POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE PROGAGATING FROM THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HAVE LEFT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE BETTER LIFT COULD BE FOCUSED JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH. THE REST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S, AND DEW POINTS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND
HIGHEST DEW POINTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN KS. THIS COMBINATION WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE NEAR 105 MAKING CONDITIONS RATHER
UNCOMFORTABLE. DURING THE DAY MONDAY A SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
RATHER WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SOMEWHAT REMOVED TO THE
NORTHEAST. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SURFACE HEATING WILL REMOVE THE CAP
IN PLACE AND ANY ORGANIZED LIFT COULD SET OFF A HIGH BASE STORM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWS ITS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP CHANCES DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RANGE FROM 100-107 MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DECIDED TO LOWER DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY
FROM THE GUIDANCE THINKING THAT THE MIXING WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES, HELPING TO
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS WILL BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STATIONARY FRONT SITS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS HELPING TO AID IN LOW
LEVEL FORCING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY WILL BE HOT WITH
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND HEAT INDICIES BETWEEN
98-103 DEGREES. THE REST OF THE WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION STAYING
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. MODELS INDICATE SITES SHOULD SEE
AN END TO PRECIPITATION BY 03Z, ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON A
MCS MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST BY APPROXIMATELY 02Z. BELIEVE
IF THIS HAPPENS, STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TAF
SITES. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT ANY FURTHER MENTION OF VCTS OUT
AFTER 03Z ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED IF TRENDS CHANGE.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...HELLER/SANDERS
AVIATION...HELLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
322 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
1930Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADAS. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH AZ WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS OK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT
WAS OBSERVED FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO.
THE NAM AND RAP HAVE TRENDED TO KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE FROM THIS
MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS KEPT THE PRECIP
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH. EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING, THINK THE SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST TAKING THE FORCING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS EVENING. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WE CLEAR OUT, TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE LOW LYING
AREAS. FOR FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM AZ MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
AND HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM
DEVELOP SOME REASONABLE INSTABILITY, SO THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POP UP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK SO AM NOT
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT MAY BE. ALSO MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST
SKILL IN HANDLING THESE WEAK WAVES KICKING OUT, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE HEAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CO ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA,
DEEPENING THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ALL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEST TO
EAST WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS AND NE BORDER. THE INCREASING LLJ
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE CENTERED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, HIGHEST NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
25 KTS. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS STRONG MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB ADVECTS TEMPS TO THE UPPER 20S C INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS. AT THIS TIME, HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS
INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER 90S FURTHER EAST. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S, BELIEVE
HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR
SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY VARY BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON HOW WELL WE
CAN MIX OUT THE LOW 70 DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX
HEAT INDICES FROM 103 TO 106 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BOARDER. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WESTERN KANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO
BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 90S UP
TO 101 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES THROUGHOUT THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 100 DEGREES, POSSIBLY UP TO 105 IN SOME AREAS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE OK STATE LINE PER THE 17Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING THE BETTER PVA
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS, THINK CHANCES THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS IS DECREASING AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. NAM AND GFS PROGS SHOW SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT SINCE THE RAP WANTS TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY SEEM PLAUSIBLE, ALTHOUGH I AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THE
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MET MOS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN/HELLER
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1149 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US...AND DIFFLUENT/SW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES PLAINS...ONE OVER WYOMING...THE OTHER OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS IN NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA...HOWEVER BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE WELL SOUTH. GOOD MOISTURE AND LIMITED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MUCH
DRIER THAN GUIDANCE 12HR AGO. AREA OBS/SATELLITE SHOW LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS...AND WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE IN PLACE I DECIDED TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE (PWATS/TD). AS THE DAY GOES ON CAPE
VALUES INCREASE...AND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG KS/CO BORDER MAY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF MODEL
CONTINUITY/CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE FEATURES.
I KEPT 20-40 POPS IN PLACE BASED ON MODEL PRECIP SIGNALS/CURRENT
CONSENSUS TIMING FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY TODAY AS EVEN WITH LESS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS. I COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEPENDING ON CLEARING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER...WITH THE DECREE OF WAA ADVERTISED BY EVEN
CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 90F. IN
FACT...MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE
AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100F. SOME GUIDANCES KEEPS SURFACE TROUGH A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY "COOLER"...HOWEVER
EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER ACROSS A LOT OF THE AREA. STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
DUE TO RIDGE. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. IM NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS...BUT DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WEST AND ELONGATE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY... RAISING POPS INTO
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. CAPE AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE MODEST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE A RISK FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND RAISE POPS ONCE MORE ACROSS THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK UP. LATER THIS EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES WITH SOME POSSIBLE
MVFR NEAR STORMS. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDTIONS AT KMCK AND KGLD FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT WEST AT THIS HOUR...WHILE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S EVEN WITH PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER. WARM FRONT HAS SETTLED TO OUR SOUTH IN OKLAHOMA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE SOME HAZE OR
FOG IN LOW SPOTS OR ALONG BODIES OF WATER BY MORNING BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVER.
FOR TODAY...SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO LIFT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS...SO MORE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WITH
CONVECTION. SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY THE NOON HOUR
BUT THINK POINTS NORTHEAST WILL NOT SEE MUCH UNTIL THIS EVENING AND
HAVE SPREAD POPS SW TO NE ACCORDINGLY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A SECONDARY WAVE INCREASES THE 850 FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR TEMPERATURES...AS FRONT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME SITES REACH THE 80 MARK TODAY
BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S OVERNIGHT IN CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
BY FRIDAY MORNING, A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, WITH ONE SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KS AND TRACK OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. IF ANYTHING, MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACKING OF THIS WAVE BEING MORE OVER THE
CWA RATHER THAN HOVERING NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER AS SOME PREVIOUS RUNS
WERE SUGGESTING. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
TIMING AND TRACKING OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN A
SLOWER NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FASTEST SOLUTION, BUT IN GENERAL THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING AND LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH KEEPING PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS INTO
SATURDAY WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY UPWARDS OF 20-25KTS AND LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO LOOK MORE MOIST ADIABATIC.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S., BROADLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN RIDGE AXIS, CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE INCONSISTENT AMONGST THEMSELVES AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACKING OF THESE WAVES, SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
WHEN AND WHERE THESE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME, HAVE A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. DURING
THIS TIME, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA,
KEEPING PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEADY WARM-AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE CWA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES SOARING INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., RESULTING IN MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. A FEW MORE EMBEDDED WAVES MAY TRACK OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THIS SHIFT IN THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE OK STATE LINE PER THE 17Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING THE BETTER PVA
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS, THINK CHANCES THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS IS DECREASING AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. NAM AND GFS PROGS SHOW SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT SINCE THE RAP WANTS TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY SEEM PLAUSIBLE, ALTHOUGH I AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THE
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MET MOS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
529 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US...AND DIFFLUENT/SW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES PLAINS...ONE OVER WYOMING...THE OTHER OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS IN NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA...HOWEVER BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE WELL SOUTH. GOOD MOISTURE AND LIMITED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MUCH
DRIER THAN GUIDANCE 12HR AGO. AREA OBS/SATELLITE SHOW LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS...AND WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE IN PLACE I DECIDED TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE (PWATS/TD). AS THE DAY GOES ON CAPE
VALUES INCREASE...AND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG KS/CO BORDER MAY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF MODEL
CONTINUITY/CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE FEATURES.
I KEPT 20-40 POPS IN PLACE BASED ON MODEL PRECIP SIGNALS/CURRENT
CONSENSUS TIMING FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY TODAY AS EVEN WITH LESS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS. I COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEPENDING ON CLEARING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER...WITH THE DECREE OF WAA ADVERTISED BY EVEN
CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 90F. IN
FACT...MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE
AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100F. SOME GUIDANCES KEEPS SURFACE TROUGH A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY "COOLER"...HOWEVER
EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER ACROSS A LOT OF THE AREA. STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
DUE TO RIDGE. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. IM NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS...BUT DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WEST AND ELONGATE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY... RAISING POPS INTO
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. CAPE AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE MODEST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE A RISK FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND RAISE POPS ONCE MORE ACROSS THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. HOWEVER...BESIDES ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR
KGLD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING/COVERAGE. I DECIDED TO ONLY INCLUDE MENTION AT KGLD FOR
NOW. STRATUS AND FOG AND DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
AROUND BOTH TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID MORNING...HOWEVER BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. I WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD DUE TO IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KMCK...AND
BETTER CONDITIONS IN AREAS SURROUND KMCK. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT BEST CHANCES FOR FOG/STRATUS (IFR
CONDITIONS OR LOWER) WILL BE AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE AS
ADVERTISED POSITION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US...AND DIFFLUENT/SW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES PLAINS...ONE OVER WYOMING...THE OTHER OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS IN NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA...HOWEVER BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE WELL SOUTH. GOOD MOISTURE AND LIMITED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MUCH
DRIER THAN GUIDANCE 12HR AGO. AREA OBS/SATELLITE SHOW LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS...AND WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE IN PLACE I DECIDED TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE (PWATS/TD). AS THE DAY GOES ON CAPE
VALUES INCREASE...AND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG KS/CO BORDER MAY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF MODEL
CONTINUITY/CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE FEATURES.
I KEPT 20-40 POPS IN PLACE BASED ON MODEL PRECIP SIGNALS/CURRENT
CONSENSUS TIMING FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY TODAY AS EVEN WITH LESS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS. I COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEPENDING ON CLEARING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER...WITH THE DECREE OF WAA ADVERTISED BY EVEN
CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 90F. IN
FACT...MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE
AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100F. SOME GUIDANCES KEEPS SURFACE TROUGH A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY "COOLER"...HOWEVER
EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER ACROSS A LOT OF THE AREA. STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
DUE TO RIDGE. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. IM NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS...BUT DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WEST AND ELONGATE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY... RAISING POPS INTO
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. CAPE AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE MODEST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE A RISK FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND RAISE POPS ONCE MORE ACROSS THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BEING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED. BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AS GULF MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON THIS
FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR RETURNS.
NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER LINE OF
STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THIS
CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS TO EXTRAPOLATE
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KY SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF SME AND LOZ...WHILE
STORMS AFFECTING SJS WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY. GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING EVEN AFTER VISIBILITY IMPROVES TO 7
OR GREATER MILES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
251 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KY SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF SME AND LOZ...WHILE
STORMS AFFECTING SJS WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY. GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING EVEN AFTER VISIBILITY IMPROVES TO 7
OR GREATER MILES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1255 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO UPDATED
FORECAST FOR EXPIRATION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO LMK...WILL BE ENDING THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SHORT-
LIVED...AND NOT THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS NEEDED TO WARRANT THE
WATCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS THROUGH 06Z.
THERE IS QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
ADVERTISED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER ARKANSAS...AND
MISSOURI IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE THAT FAR BEHIND.
THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE
00Z-06Z PERIOD. IN BOTH CASES...THE CONVECTION REALLY WEAKENS...IF
NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATES...AS IT REACHES SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEST KENTUCKY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN
ACTIVITY...AND SPARES MOST OF THE AREA FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF.
TRIED TO USE THE NAM/HRRR SOLUTIONS AS A GUIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP...SO
THE NORTHWEST SEGMENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
06Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.
FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS ALL DRAPE THE FRONT ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE NAM DEVELOPS
AND HOLDS ONTO WEAKER CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE FRONT
THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO THE CONVECTION FOR AWHILE. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND THAT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE A SMALL POP FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE GETTING HOT BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO THE LOWER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
ECMWF, GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SLOWLY SLIDING WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, MOVING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. MODELS ALL
SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED TROF GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RETURN TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF OF COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AND EXPANDING SOUTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR INTO OUR
REGION. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTHEAST, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT ALL FORECAST
TERMINALS. BY LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...A TREND
TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS IS ANTICIPATED. AT THIS POINT...WE BELIEVE
THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD PUT A DAMPER ON ANY DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF MORE
SUNSHINE MATERIALIZES...WE MAY NEED TO ADD A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN LATER FORECASTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP AND NEW 00Z NAM ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS NOW
ALMOST BISECTING THE AREA ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DECENT
850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE VORTMAX LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF
CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO MID-HIGH CHANCE AND EVEN LIKELY
UP ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A
RESULT.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO DVLP ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A SUBTLE
SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE. BNDRY THAT HAS BEEN STUCK ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS FCST TO FINALLY START MVNG TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THERE SHOULD BE ONGOING
ISLD/SCTTRD CONVECTION ALONG THE BNDRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRD.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THRU THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH THRU THE AREA. BEST CHNACE/COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE MO AS A TSTM COMPLEX THAT DVLPD ACROSS
ERN KS/NE AND NW MO/WRN IA THIS EVNG TRACKS NE.
2%
.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
N/NE/E SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE ON THE STHRN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK THRU THE WKND WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE ONGOING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS THRU THE WKND. CONVECTION SHOULD LIFT NE BY
MID/LATE MRNG. UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISLD/SCTTRD
CONVECTION N/NE/E OF THE STL METRO AREA DRNG THE PM HRS. ANOTHER
TSTM COMPLEX IS FCST TO TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY
ALSO BRUSH THE N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE FA BY LATE MRNG WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
WHICH MAY CLIP AREAS FROM NE MO/W CNTRL IL TO S CNTRL IL...BUT THIS
SCENARIO IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN TONIGHT OR SAT NIGHT/S COMPLEX AND
IF IT DOES HAPPEN WILL LIKELY BE EVEN FARTHER NE THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS.
WARMER TEMPS ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY THIS WKND. A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SAT AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80 TO MID 90S ON SAT
WITH LOW/MID 90S AREA WIDE ON SUN. THE COOLER TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE
ACROSS NE MO/W CNTRL IL SE INTO S CNTRL IL WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. DPS ARE
ALSO FCST TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S MAKING FOR A MUGGY WKND. WENT AT
OR ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE THRU THE WKND EXCEPT IN THE STL METRO
ARE ON SUN WHERE USED MORE OF A BLEND. DIDN`T WANT TO GO WITH THE
UPPER 90S THAT THE MAV IF FCSTNG JUST YET.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
CWA INTO NW FLOW. THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
BY MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS THAT THE N/NE/E PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN NEAR THE STHRN
EDGE OF THE STORM TRACK THRU THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MRNG PASSING THRU THE FA MON NIGHT. THIS ENERGY
SHOULD INITIATE TSTM DVLPMNT...BUT IT IS A BIT EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION THIS FAR UT BUT SPC HAS THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA
IN THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS
FCST TO APPROACH THE NW FA LATE MON AND APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CWA THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BNDRY IN THE AREA MEANS DAILY CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N/NE/E
PORTION OF THE FA DUE TO COOLER MID LVL TEMPS AND PROXIMITY TO THE
STORM TRACK.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LVLS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. DPS ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 70S THRU THE WEEK. THE BNDRY
SHOULD HELP POOL THE DPS DRNG THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL
MODELS HINTING AT 80 DEGREE DPS. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THAT SOLUTION
BUT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND
EVAPOTRANSPORTION IN HIGH GEAR.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SHORT RANGE MODELS (RAP, HRRR) ARE AGREEING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH
OVERNIGH. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK BEST OR UIN WHERE THERE APPEARS TO
BE BETTER DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. TIMEING ON CURRENT TAF LOOKS
GOOD WITH SHROT RANGE MODELS SO WILL CHANGE PROB30 TO A TEMPO
GROUP. A VCSH FOR COU MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST.
WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH COU AT 14Z AND UIN AND 18Z.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: RAP AND HRRR DEVELOP PRECIPITATON NW-SE ALONG
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF IT HAPPENS IT LOOKS TO BE 10Z TO 14Z.
STILL, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE VICINITY FOR
NOW. WILL DELAY THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO 18Z
FOLLWING THE RAP/HRRR.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1021 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP AND NEW 00Z NAM ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS NOW
ALMOST BISECTING THE AREA ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DECENT
850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE VORTMAX LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF
CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO MID-HIGH CHANCE AND EVEN LIKELY
UP ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A
RESULT.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO DVLP ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A SUBTLE
SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE. BNDRY THAT HAS BEEN STUCK ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS FCST TO FINALLY START MVNG TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THERE SHOULD BE ONGOING
ISLD/SCTTRD CONVECTION ALONG THE BNDRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRD.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE THRU THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH THRU THE AREA. BEST CHNACE/COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE MO AS A TSTM COMPLEX THAT DVLPD ACROSS
ERN KS/NE AND NW MO/WRN IA THIS EVNG TRACKS NE.
2%
.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
N/NE/E SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE ON THE STHRN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK THRU THE WKND WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE ONGOING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS THRU THE WKND. CONVECTION SHOULD LIFT NE BY
MID/LATE MRNG. UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISLD/SCTTRD
CONVECTION N/NE/E OF THE STL METRO AREA DRNG THE PM HRS. ANOTHER
TSTM COMPLEX IS FCST TO TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY
ALSO BRUSH THE N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE FA BY LATE MRNG WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
WHICH MAY CLIP AREAS FROM NE MO/W CNTRL IL TO S CNTRL IL...BUT THIS
SCENARIO IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN TONIGHT OR SAT NIGHT/S COMPLEX AND
IF IT DOES HAPPEN WILL LIKELY BE EVEN FARTHER NE THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS.
WARMER TEMPS ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY THIS WKND. A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SAT AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80 TO MID 90S ON SAT
WITH LOW/MID 90S AREA WIDE ON SUN. THE COOLER TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE
ACROSS NE MO/W CNTRL IL SE INTO S CNTRL IL WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. DPS ARE
ALSO FCST TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S MAKING FOR A MUGGY WKND. WENT AT
OR ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE THRU THE WKND EXCEPT IN THE STL METRO
ARE ON SUN WHERE USED MORE OF A BLEND. DIDN`T WANT TO GO WITH THE
UPPER 90S THAT THE MAV IF FCSTNG JUST YET.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
CWA INTO NW FLOW. THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
BY MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS THAT THE N/NE/E PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN NEAR THE STHRN
EDGE OF THE STORM TRACK THRU THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MRNG PASSING THRU THE FA MON NIGHT. THIS ENERGY
SHOULD INITIATE TSTM DVLPMNT...BUT IT IS A BIT EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION THIS FAR UT BUT SPC HAS THE NERN PORTION OF THE CWA
IN THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS
FCST TO APPROACH THE NW FA LATE MON AND APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CWA THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BNDRY IN THE AREA MEANS DAILY CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N/NE/E
PORTION OF THE FA DUE TO COOLER MID LVL TEMPS AND PROXIMITY TO THE
STORM TRACK.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LVLS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. DPS ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 70S THRU THE WEEK. THE BNDRY
SHOULD HELP POOL THE DPS DRNG THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL
MODELS HINTING AT 80 DEGREE DPS. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THAT SOLUTION
BUT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND
EVAPOTRANSPORTION IN HIGH GEAR.
2%
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WARM FRONT FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BY 18Z
SAT. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM BY ABOUT 3 HOURS. NO STRONG
FEELING AS TO WHICH IS RIGHT SO WILL COMPROMISE THE TIMING. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CEMTRAL
IL WITH COU IN THE MIX AS WELL. PROB30 LOOKS GOOD FOR UIN AND
VICINITY FOR COU. OTHER QUESTION IS WILL STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS USUAL NAM HITS THIS HARDER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THAT THE NAM WAS BETTER WITH THE CLOUDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH IT BUT WILL BACK OFF A BIT THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THE LOCATION THE FRONT MIDDAY SAT AT
LEAST A VICINITY MAY BE NEEDED AT UIN.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT FOR SAT AM
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. THE RANGE ACCORDING TO THE GUIDANCE IS
THROUGH STL EITHER BY 15Z WITH THE GFS AND 18Z. SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SOLUTION. WILL STRATUS REDEVELOP?
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO. WILL LEAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD IN FOR NOW PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WILL LOOK
MORE CLOSELY AT THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
WOULD LIKELY BE 10-14Z. CHANCES LOW SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
Main near term concern is the chances for renewed convective
development over the eastern cwfa.
A pocket of somewhat higher instability has developed over south
central MO where sfc temperatures have risen into the low-mid
80s. Progged RUC instability of 500-1000 j/kg is expected in this
area this afternoon. High resolution models are tending to
intensify convection along/ahead of the ongoing showers, at least
on a scattered basis. A continued strong low level inflow/jet will
enhance low level helicity with the potential of stronger
storms/low topped supercells. Already seeing weak rotation with
convection in the northeast cwfa. Helicity may be enhanced by west-
east warm front over central/east central MO. HRRR develops
somewhat stronger updrafts toward 21z-22z and then on into the
early evening. Some sw-ne training of convection may occur over our
eastern counties as well early this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
Another shortwave is progged to move into eastern KS late in the
day with further chances for renewed precip into Thu night. In
general, better precip chances will then shift north of the area
for a bit as an upper level ridge works it`s way over the region
Fri-Sat-Sun. Very warm/hot/steamy weather is then expected Fri
into early next week. First look at general guidance has low 90s
for highs for this time frame (Fri-Mon).
Active weather then may occur again by Tue-Wed as the upper
pattern amplifies as a ridge builds over Rockies and we are under
upper level nw flow. Hard to get too detailed yet out that far.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
IFR conditions developing this evening across the forecast area in
the wake of showers and thunderstorms earlier. Ceilings have
dipped at or below 1500 feet with visibilities starting to
decrease to around 3 miles at SGF. Scattered showers starting to
develop along a boundary stretching from near BBG into northeast
OK. Have gone with VCSH wording at BBG taf overnight. IFR
conditions expected at all 3 sites. Convection will expand
northward on Thursday with scattered showers/thunderstorms
expected during the afternoon/evening at the 3 taf sites.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ082-083-096>098-
104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
HIT AND MISS SH/TS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID EVENING. THEN MAIN FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE SE
PLAINS DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HITTING ROW TERMINAL
FORECAST HARD WITH SH/TS IMPACTS. ANOTHER CROP OF STORMS SHOULD
FORM BY 18Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY/S CROP SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TODAY WITH A LITTLE DRIER TREND NEAR THE AZ STATE
LINE. USED VCSH/VCTS AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S
ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO PASSING STORMS WOULD
BE AT TCC/ROW NEAR TERM AND THEN ROW LATER TONIGHT.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE
STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS TO RETURN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
FORCING A STRONG 40-60KT UPPER JET OVER AZ/NM. A 594DM H5 UPPER
HIGH DRIFTING WEST OVER EAST TX IS TAPPING A JUICY ATMOSPHERE FROM
MEXICO AND SHIFTING IT NORTHWARD INTO THE FASTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
IN THIS PATTERN IS FORCING SEVERAL STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE STORM COVERAGE IS
LESS TODAY AND ACTIVITY IS BUMPING ALONG QUICKLY FOR JULY...THUS
LIMITING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS
BETWEEN 3PM AND 7PM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION
PATTERN REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. STORM MOTIONS MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST AND IMPINGES ON
THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER BURST IS ADVERTISED BY
MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. INCREASED POPS AGAIN SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...
A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE THE FEWEST STORMS WHILE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES REMAIN MORE ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY REACH NORMAL OR HIGHER LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST DAYS WITH LOWER VALUES...AND SOME AREAS OF
POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION ON SUNDAY AND THURSDAY.
INTERESTING PATTERN FOR JULY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW
POSITIONED CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
JET EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN BAJA...ACROSS ARIZONA AND OVER NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME ARE PRODUCING HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING
HAVE NOT REALLY TRANSLATED INTO WESTERN ZONES TODAY. THUS...
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...MAINTAINING THE FLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDING OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN A WESTWARD NUDGE OF THE MONSOON
PLUME. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE MOST ZONES...WITH THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CORNERS LEAST FAVORED. BY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERN ZONES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FAVORED.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1001 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL BRING A WAVE OF RAIN TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FINGER
LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK...AND
ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...THERE WILL ALSO BE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AFTER THE
SYSTEM EXITS LATE TONIGHT...WELCOME DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINS BY 1-2 HOURS AS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
TIMING WITH THE RAP...WRF_NMM AND WRF_ARW ALSO PRETTY CLOSE. THE
NAM12 BEGINS SLOW BUT CATCHES UP AND BRINGS A BATCH OF PRECIP
ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA BY 16-20Z. STILL APPEARS HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLS BTWN 18Z AND 23Z. BASIN AVE QPF AMNTS STILL LOOK TO BE 1-2
INCHES IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES AS ADVERTISED BUT CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOW MUCH NARROWER STRIPES OF HEAVIER RAIN AS ONE
WUD EXPECT. A STRIPE OF 3-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A SMALLER
AREA AND HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. IT STILL APPEARS BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACRS THE TWIN-TIER REGION BUT FARTHER S THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH HEAVY RAINS TOO AS PWATS ARE
OVER 2 INCHES!! THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE VIS SATELLITE IN NE PA AND
MODELS SHOW CAPE BUILDING UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING IN NE PA. WITH
THE SFC LOW TRACK JUST N OF NE PA...THIS AREA WILL SEE VERY HIGH
LL WIND SHEAR. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED TO RANGE AROUND 25
KNOTS...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY AT KAVP ON THE 6Z NAM AT 242 M2/S2
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED CAPES REACHING CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. THE 6Z
NAM JOGGED THE SFC LOW TO THE N AND THAT IS WHY KAVP/S SOUNDING
LOOKS SO IMPRESSIVE. BUT THIS SIGNALS THAT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ARE
VERY CLOSE TO A SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER THREAT LATER TODAY. THIS
CUD BE A MINI-SUPERCELL TORNADO DAY AND WE CONCUR WITH THE
ENHANCED RISK JUST TO OUR SRN BRDR COUNTIES FROM SPC. PREVIOUS
DSCN IS BELOW.
430 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN CATSKILLS IN NY AND ALL
OF NORTHEAST PA...AND ALSO THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTHEAST PA.
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO
DAWN...BUT ONLY WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO SHOW FOR
IT IN THE POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY...VIRGA ELSEWHERE DUE TO
DRY AIR IN THE 6-14 KFT AGL LAYER. THAT WAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT AND
LEAVE US TEMPORARILY QUIET THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...STRONGER WAVE WILL ZIP THROUGH THE
AREA AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ROUGHLY ALONG THE NY-PA
BORDER BEFORE SHUNTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOT GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...MOST IMPORTANTLY PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES TO ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
40-50 KTS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TRANSPORTING THIS
MOISTURE...MEANWHILE ALOFT WE GET FORCED ASCENT VIA RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET AT 250-300MB. ADD WELL MARKED
SURFACE BOUNDARY-SURFACE LOW...AND ALREADY MOIST SOILS DUE TO
REPEATED RAINS OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS...AND INGREDIENTS ARE COMING
TOGETHER. FREEZING LEVEL IS ACTUALLY EXCEEDING 15 KFT AGL...WHICH
WILL YIELD VERY EFFICIENT RAIN. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN /THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IT WOULD TAKE IN
AN HOUR TO START CAUSING FLOOD PROBLEMS/...IS ONLY 0.8 TO 1.4
INCHES. THIS SYSTEM ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF FLASH FLOODING
INCLUDING CURRENT FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF IL-IN- KY.
BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS...IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WE HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN TIER-
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES-WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY...AND ALL OF
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
NORTH MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE SYSTEM TRACK
CHANGES JUST SLIGHTLY...IN WHICH CASE THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE ALSO HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR AT LEAST
NORTHEAST PA. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH CAPE WE CAN MANAGE
CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST
SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY WHICH
WOULD PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE. PROBLEMATIC SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LESS
OF A CHALLENGE TO ATTAIN...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR.
RUNNING THE NUMBERS THROUGH OUR LOCAL ANALOG TOOL BRINGS UP CASES
WITH FLASH FLOODING BUT ALSO SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND IN ONCE
CASE EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
0-1KM SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES. SPC INCLUDES ALMOST ALL OF NEPA
IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...WITH MARGINAL RISK REACHING JUST PAST
PA/NY BORDER. HAIL WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE OF WARM
CLOUD DEPTH...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH THERE WILL BE RAIN NORTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS
/TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOW 70S/ TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO HAVE RAIN WILL LINGER A WAYS INTO THE
EVENING...A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BECAUSE UPPER
JET SUPPORT LASTING INTO THE NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT
THOUGH...LEAVING AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BRINGING WELCOME DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE FRIDAY-SATURDAY. HIGHS UPPER 70S-LOW 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
IN MID 50S TO NEAR 60...WILL FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE.
HOWEVER...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RAINFALL...WILL MAKE VALLEY FOG FORMATION
LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY TO A
SLIGHT LESSER DEGREE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOPE DOWN TOWARD AN
ATLANTIC TROF THIS PERIOD, WITH WEAK WAVES RIDING DOWN THE RIDGE
INTO NY AND PA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST EACH PERIOD.
THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN UL CLOSED LOW TO BREAK OFF FROM THE FLOW AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK TROF DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
3 PM UPDATE...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CARVING
OUT OF YET ANOTHER BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...AND
POSSIBLY A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES BY MON-TUES.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE BIG THREE (GFS/ECMWF/GGEM)...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE...UNSETTLED
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY SHOULD ESCAPE RAIN
FREE UNTIL TOWARD EVENING WHEN SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT IN ON A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AFTER THAT...AT LEAST THE
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIRAL DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS, LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO MVFR TERRITORY. BRIEF IFR IS
EXPECTED, BUT THE DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT TO JUSTIFY A TEMPO
GROUP.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 19Z THURSDAY AND
00Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK...
THU AFTRN THROUGH EARLY FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA THU...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS-FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
MID MORNING FRI THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR PAZ040-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ038-039-043-044-047.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ022>025-044-045-055-056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/DJP/JAB
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
707 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WILL BUILD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN DISSIPATE. A BETTER FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIFTED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY
THE BERMUDA HIGH NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS
LIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE/THIN AS THE SUN RISES FURTHER ABOVE THE HORIZON
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION LAST
NIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT STRAY FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MAY JUST BE A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE.
IT WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING
THE HEAT INDEX UP TO 100 TO 104 DEGREES MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW INLAND SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 105 DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT GEOGRAPHIC AREA WILL HIT 105 DEGREES FOR TWO HOURS OR
MORE AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP LOWER AS DRY AIR
ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE AS STRONG HEATING ENSUES. THUS...DO NOT
PLAN ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE LOWER 90S. TEMPS
THIS EVE WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS NOT DROPPING TO 80 DEGREES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...80 DEGREES
OR SO AT THE BEACHES.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ITS POSITION ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AS HEAT RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS FURTHER. TEMPS AT
850 MB WILL REACH AROUND 21 DEG C TODAY...ABOUT A DEGREE HIGHER THAN
ON WED. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD AGAIN BE A PROMINENT FEATURE AS
WILL THE SEABREEZE. THESE STRENGTHENING BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SW OR WSW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AT THE
BEACHES.
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 2000 J/KG DURING THE TIME
OF PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM THE
CONVECTION WHICH DISSIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LAST
NIGHT...IT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE A STRETCH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WORKING AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WARM AIR ALOFT...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN
AND PARTICULARLY IN THE MID LEVELS...AND A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 25 KFT. THUS...AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AGAIN ONE OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND MAINLY DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
HANGS ON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 INLAND AND THE UPPER 90S
ALONG THE COAST. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN DURING MAX
HEATING WILL PROBABLY KEEP AN OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY FROM BEING
ISSUED. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A SMATTERING OF 105 VALUES BUT THE
LONGEVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED.
A SLOW DECREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES COMMENCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY CRAWLS SLOWLY SOUTH. THE EFFECTS
WILL BE GRADUAL BUT OVERALL THIS SHOULD SHAVE 3-4 DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S. THERE IS SOME
SIGNALS OF CONVECTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ON PRIMARILY THE NORTHEAST
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A RETREATING MID LEVEL RIDGE MAKES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK
TO THE EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSING IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SURFACE FEATURES ARE WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF JULY. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND A SERIES OF FADING FRONTS
ESPECIALLY LATE MAKING A FUTILE PUSH INTO BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL KEEP THE DAYS BEYOND MONDAY FAIRLY
UNSETTLED. WE HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY AND MORESO AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MAINLY SCT MID/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING THIS
MORNING...DENSEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS ARE SW-W 5 TO 10
KT.
VFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SW-
W...EXCEPT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...BUT WITH
W WINDS ALOFT THE BOUNDARYS INLAND PROGRESS WILL BE IMPEDED. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE IN
COASTAL TAFS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND...LAND/SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES COULD PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
FROM THE SSW.
ONLY ISOLATED AIRMASS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY THUS WILL
OMIT MENTION FROM TAFS. PROBABLY THE BEST AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE NW OF KCRE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IT COULD MOVE TOWARDS KCRE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE ITS AN
OVERALL HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE WINDS
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SCT LO/MID CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
JETTING WILL AGAIN HELP TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS ELEVATED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT...15 TO 20 KT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE SW. SEAS
WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT. AN 8 TO 10 SECOND SE GROUND SWELL
WILL PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10- 15 KNOTS...HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. A WEAK
BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS TO WEST AND EVEN NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY IS SO WEAK HOWEVER THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE MOST PART.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE...ATTEMPTING TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP A
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THESE
FEATURES HAVE FADED AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL TO DRIVE SEAS BEYOND THE TOKEN VALUES DRIVEN BY
THE WINDS...2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS ANY
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC NAM AND 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WHILE ISOLATED CELLS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR HAVE LEAD TO VERY
QUICK DISSIPATION OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE HRRR THUS FAR THIS
EVENING FROM RUN TO RUN HAS OVER DEVELOPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE/LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT. THUS...FAVORED
THE 18 UTC NAM AND 15 UTC SREF WHOSE QPF FIELDS ARE CLOSET TO
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC. DO EXPECT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...CONTINUED WEAK
SHEAR PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2150 UTC OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A
TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 18-20 UTC HRRR RUNS...INTRODUCED POPS
TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH
A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. OVER OUR
AREA...SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STARTING
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY
A VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES...THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR IS AVAILABLE
SO EXPECT STORMS OVERALL TO REMAIN TAME AND RATHER PULSE.
ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DRAWING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A DRYLINE WILL SETUP
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TIMING OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIETY OF SHORT
WAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST SHEAR
TO BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE SATURDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
RECEIVE MANY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. A RATHER
WARM AND MUGGY SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE INDICATING
VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST SPC
SEVERE OUTLOOKS PLACE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST.
AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS WEEKEND`S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY. ANY DIRECT IMPACT TO ONE
OF THE TERMINALS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO A SMALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
740 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WHILE ISOLATED CELLS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR HAVE LEAD TO VERY
QUICK DISSIPATION OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE HRRR THUS FAR THIS
EVENING FROM RUN TO RUN HAS OVER DEVELOPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE/LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT. THUS...FAVORED
THE 18 UTC NAM AND 15 UTC SREF WHOSE QPF FIELDS ARE CLOSET TO
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC. DO EXPECT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...CONTINUED WEAK
SHEAR PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2150 UTC OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A
TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 18-20 UTC HRRR RUNS...INTRODUCED POPS
TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH
A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. OVER OUR
AREA...SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STARTING
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY
A VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES...THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR IS AVAILABLE
SO EXPECT STORMS OVERALL TO REMAIN TAME AND RATHER PULSE.
ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DRAWING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A DRYLINE WILL SETUP
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TIMING OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIETY OF SHORT
WAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST SHEAR
TO BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE SATURDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
RECEIVE MANY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. A RATHER
WARM AND MUGGY SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE INDICATING
VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST SPC
SEVERE OUTLOOKS PLACE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST.
AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS WEEKEND`S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY. ANY DIRECT IMPACT TO ONE
OF THE TERMINALS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO A SMALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
T-STORMS IN NRN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION DISSIPATING TO SHOWERS
NOW AND WILL HAVE SCT -SHRA IN SMALL AERA IN LOW REGION TIL 07Z.
O/W REMAINING PATCHY CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL MOVE OUT.
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME PATCHY FOG AS HRRR DOES
INDICATE PATCHY LOW VSBY IN SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...THEN TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON INSTABILITY.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE GONE AROUND
3Z...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS THIS WAY. PATCHY FOG CAN/T BE RULED OUT
LATER TONIGHT...AND BUFKIT INDICATES FOG IS FAVORED IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE DVL
BASIN 8-13Z.
FOR THU....EXPECT A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING
AND A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AS WELL...AND A NICE SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
ON FRIDAY...EVEN WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE
ONLY THING THAT COULD LIMIT TEMPS IS IF SMOKE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT IF THERE IS NO SMOKE IT COULD BE AROUND 90.
FOR SAT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH PWATS RISING
OVER 1.5 INCHES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH WITH NO REAL SFC
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS MAINLY VALLEY WEST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM AND IF THERE IS SMOKE AIR
QUALITY COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN.
.EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
THINKING REGARDING THIS PERIOD. SUNDAY SHOWS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNSURE HOW
WIDESPREAD/STRONG STORMS WILL BE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE WITHIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION GIVES THUNDER CHANCES EVERY DAY...BEST
CHANCES PROBABLY MORE TOWARD MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
PATCHY GROUND FOG PSBL EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND DAWN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND VSBY KEEPS ME FROM MENTIONING FOG AT ANY
TAF SITE ATTM. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND THURSDAY AFTN. GUST TO NR 20 KTS
PSBL WEST OF THE RRV THU AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...TG/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1031 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SEEING THE MCS/MCV TYPE SYS COMING TO FRUITION OVER SE OH AND NE
KY OVER THE LAST HR. LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES BEAR THIS OUT
ALONG WITH RADAR. 00Z NAM AND LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
LATCHED ON TO THIS NOW THAT IT HAS DEVELOPED. AS SUCH...HAVE
LEANED HEAVILY ON THESE MODELS FOR REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN OF A RENEWED FLASH FLOOD EVENT IN THE C
LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT...OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT HARD THE PAST
FEW DAYS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES UNDER A SOMEWHAT NARROW
BAND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROUTE 33 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE N
MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THAT WONT FALL
OFF THE TURNTABLE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 1730Z. HIGH
PWS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY 1.6 TO 2 INCHES...ONCE
AGAIN. UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE MIDWEST...IS
HELPING TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME WITH
FLOODING RAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
SOME FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED...AND HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE MAY BE A LITTLE LONG IN DURATION...BUT
WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...MCS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
AFFECT AT LEAST WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. HAVE A
WATCH OUT FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL 4 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEN...MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE
AT H500 CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES MODELS BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THEREFORE...INCREASE POPS TO TO
HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY AND TO LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PWATS GOING BACK TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LUSH VEGETATION...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS... TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ALSO HUMID. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ALLOWED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES BY THE
MODELS IN THE LONG PERIOD. THEREFORE...ALLOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON.
WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.
WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THRU 06Z UNTIL AN S/W
TROF CAN CROSS. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA WITH
LOCALIZED IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHRA. AFTER 09Z...THE ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT INTO THE MTNS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND 12Z AS THE S/W TROF
MOVES E OF THE AREA.
ABSENT PRECIP...EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR IN PLACES LATE. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME IFR OR WORSE VSBY AS WELL.
ANY STRATUS OR FG WILL MIX OUT INTO BKN MVFR CU FOR A TIME MID
MORNING BEFORE SCT OUT ALL TOGETHER OVER SE OH...NE KY...W WV. A
BKN CU FIELD MAY LINGER FOR E TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>008-
013>018-024>030-033>039-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ105.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>008-
013>018-024>030-033>039-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ105.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SWING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL SEE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE
PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY END THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON, AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH OF THESE SAME
AREAS DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP
VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS GOING ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WALLOWA
COUNTY. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACNW SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE
FLOW OVER THE AREA SOUTHWESTERLY. THUS VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. 90
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONSENSUS IN
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR
127W SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST, THUS GIVING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO FORECAST
AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION
RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING SINKING MOTION EAST OF THE CASCADES
THUS YIELDING DRY ND STABLE CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM IN
WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE IN A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH PRODUCES WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES RESULTING IN SINKING AIR WHICH RESULTS IN DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SCT-BKN 110-150 KRDM
AND KBDN TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z FOR KRDM AND KBDN WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 21Z-04Z.
OTHERWISE, FEW-SCT 150-200 AGL THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH INTO THESE AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA WILL SPREAD WEST INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE OCHOCO AND ALDRICH
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY MOVE TO THE VICINITY OF KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AFTER
01Z; HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE TAF SITES TO GET VCTS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. POLAN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD GET A SIGH OF RELIEF
AS THE WEATHER TRANSITIONS FROM THE HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS TO MORE COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE THE TIME OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED SOME OF THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN DESCHUTES COUNTY PRODUCED ABOUT 60 STRIKES IN THE PAST 30
MINUTES. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. MANY STORMS WILL BRING UP TO
A HALF OF AN INCH AND SOME ONE INCH OR MORE...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FIREFIGHTERS IN STEEP
TERRAIN SHOULD WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS
DEBRIS FLOWS. WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 68 92 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
ALW 72 94 68 87 / 20 30 30 20
PSC 70 98 69 91 / 10 20 20 10
YKM 69 97 66 90 / 10 20 20 10
HRI 71 96 68 90 / 20 20 20 20
ELN 69 93 65 86 / 10 20 20 10
RDM 58 84 55 82 / 40 30 20 20
LGD 52 86 56 79 / 40 60 60 60
GCD 59 88 58 84 / 50 70 60 60
DLS 72 88 68 83 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-
640>645.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ643-645.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ030.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/99/99/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
931 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLTALE
OF HOW SIGNIFICANT THE DYNAMICS ARE SURROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT HAS BEEN DICTATING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AT LEAST 6 IMPULSES CAN BE SEEN PINWHEELING AROUND
THE UPPPER LOW...FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...RUNNING CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE LOW TO NORTHWEST NEVADA. THESE UPSTREAM IMPUSLES IN
NEVADA WILL HELP SPARK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS THEY TRANSIT FROM EAST TO WEST.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY IS THE DIFFERENCE
IN CLOUD COVER. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THIS MORNING LIKE YESTERDAY...THEY ARE THINNER AND HAVE
MORE BREAKS THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY...AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING
TODAY. SO...WHERE THERE IS GOOD SUNSHINE TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF
JOSEPHINE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE PARTS OF JACKSON COUNTY...NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...THE CASCADES...AND EAST SIDE...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES...BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER AN INCH.
I HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING AND HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE A LITTLE WEST OF THE CASCADES BASED ON MORNING
ANALYSIS...BUT HAVE KEPT THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE FORECAST
INTACT...WHICH CONVEYS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
OF THE INLAND AREAS TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE...FOR INLAND AREAS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FROM 21Z-04Z. STRONG GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS.
ALONG THE COAST...A MIX OF MFR/IFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED MVFR OR IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY, EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE
COAST. THEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015...VARIABLE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR AND LIFT TODAY BUT THEN EXPECT
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DOMINATE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS AND WIND WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED RETURN TO THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTH WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH. SK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 240 AM PDT, THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015... LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MONTEREY BAY, CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
IT DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST TODAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CURRY COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO INCREASED
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN STORM CORES.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO SOME
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. /CC
&&
.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY REPRESENTED THE FIRST DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 35 DAYS.
THAT IS QUITE REMARKABLE AND HIGHLIGHTS FURTHER HOW HOT A JUNE AND
EARLY JULY IT HAS BEEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW LIES TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW. THROUGH TODAY, THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS TREK, THE INFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. THIS WILL
LEAVE TODAY AS THE LAST BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
MOISTURE AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE
MAIN CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION, STORMS TODAY ARE
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CONCENTRATING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE CASCADES OF OREGON, AND SOME ARE SUGGESTING A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ORBITING THE LOW TO THE SOUTH, FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES AND
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES, AND
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE, AND THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
THE NAM AND GFS BRING THE WAVE THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR BRINGS IT IN SLIGHTLY
EARLIER. THE LATER SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY, GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME. THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO
DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE EARLIER,
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING, AND THEREFORE LIMIT
CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS THE LESSER POSSIBILITY, BUT STILL A
POSSIBILITY. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER, AND THIS
COULD TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, SHOULD
ANY AREAS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY, A SECOND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG IN ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME RESIDUAL
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, AND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO
NEAR NOTHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR DOWNWARD SWING AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER KEEPS THE INCOMING
SUNLIGHT AT BAY. AS AN EXAMPLE, WEDNESDAY WAS THE FIRST IN FIFTEEN
DAYS THAT THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT GET ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN MEDFORD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
NSK/NSK/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
442 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW LIES TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW. THROUGH TODAY, THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS TREK, THE INFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. THIS WILL
LEAVE TODAY AS THE LAST BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
MOISTURE AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE
MAIN CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION, STORMS TODAY ARE
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CONCENTRATING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE CASCADES OF OREGON, AND SOME ARE SUGGESTING A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ORBITING THE LOW TO THE SOUTH, FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES AND
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES, AND
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE, AND THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
THE NAM AND GFS BRING THE WAVE THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR BRINGS IT IN SLIGHTLY
EARLIER. THE LATER SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY, GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME. THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO
DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE EARLIER,
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING, AND THEREFORE LIMIT
CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS THE LESSER POSSIBILITY, BUT STILL A
POSSIBILITY. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER, AND THIS
COULD TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, SHOULD
ANY AREAS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY, A SECOND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG IN ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME RESIDUAL
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, AND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO
NEAR NOTHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR DOWNWARD SWING AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER KEEPS THE INCOMING
SUNLIGHT AT BAY. AS AN EXAMPLE, WEDNESDAY WAS THE FIRST IN FIFTEEN
DAYS THAT THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT GET ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN MEDFORD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE...FOR INLAND AREAS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FROM 21Z-04Z. STRONG GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS.
ALONG THE COAST...A MIX OF MFR/IFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED MVFR OR IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY, EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE
COAST. THEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND VARIABLE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR AND LIFT TODAY BUT THEN EXPECT LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DOMINATE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL BE LOW TO
MODERATE IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET DUE TO
MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONGER PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED RETURN TO THE
COAST WITH INCREASED NORTH WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS AROUND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH. /CC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 240 AM PDT, THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015... LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MONTERREY BAY, CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
IT DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST TODAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CURRY COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO INCREASED
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN STORM CORES.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO SOME
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
BPN/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
248 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW LIES TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW. THROUGH TODAY, THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS TREK, THE INFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. THIS WILL
LEAVE TODAY AS THE LAST BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
MOISTURE AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE
MAIN CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION, STORMS TODAY ARE
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CONCENTRATING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE CASCADES OF OREGON, AND SOME ARE SUGGESTING A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ORBITING THE LOW TO THE SOUTH, FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES AND
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES, AND
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE, AND THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
THE NAM AND GFS BRING THE WAVE THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR BRINGS IT IN SLIGHTLY
EARLIER. THE LATER SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY, GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME. THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO
DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE EARLIER,
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING, AND THEREFORE LIMIT
CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS THE LESSER POSSIBILITY, BUT STILL A
POSSIBILITY. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER, AND THIS
COULD TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, SHOULD
ANY AREAS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY, A SECOND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG IN ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME RESIDUAL
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, AND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO
NEAR NOTHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR DOWNWARD SWING AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER KEEPS THE INCOMING
SUNLIGHT AT BAY. AS AN EXAMPLE, WEDNESDAY WAS THE FIRST IN FIFTEEN
DAYS THAT THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT GET ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN MEDFORD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/06Z TAF CYCLE...FOR INLAND AREAS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FROM 21Z-04Z. STRONG GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS.
ALONG THE COAST...A MIX OF MFR/IFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED MVFR OR IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR TO
VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN A MIX OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN DURING THE EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 01Z-04Z.
/CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND VARIABLE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR AND LIFT TODAY BUT THEN EXPECT LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DOMINATE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL BE LOW TO
MODERATE IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET DUE TO
MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONGER PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED RETURN TO THE
COAST WITH INCREASED NORTH WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS AROUND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH. /CC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 240 AM PDT, THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015... LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MONTERREY BAY, CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
IT DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST TODAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CURRY COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO INCREASED
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN STORM CORES.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO SOME
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
BPN/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...VERY LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE
LOWER 60S MOST AREAS...AND EVEN UPPER 50S IN OTHERS. THIS HAS CAPPED
SBCAPE VALUES AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...AND WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WILL
FURTHER SERVE TO CURTAIL LATE DAY CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
ISOLD WEAK RIDGE TOP SHOWERS/TSRA. THE HRRR DOES FEATURE SCATTERED
NC FOOTHILLS CONVECTION DEVELOPING CIRCA 19Z...BUT THIS WILL BE A
STRUGGLE GIVEN THE MIXED OUT DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...AN H5 RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
SE COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING MAINLY BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
MAY MAKE SOME PROGRESS SWD INTO THE NRN TIER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI.
NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NRN TIER...BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CINH IN SOUNDINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TO
ONCE AGAIN LIMIT INSTABILITY AND TSTM POTENTIAL DURING PEAK HEATING.
THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FRI WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NRN NC MTNS LATE
IN THE DAY. AND...A FEW MODELS DEPICT ISOLD ACTIVITY OUT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT WARM MINS AND MAXES ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A 593DM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LIES THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM EAST TO
WEST NEAR THE NC/SC STATELINE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE ACROSS SE
KY...SW VA...AND E TN AND IMPACT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY THE 500MB RIDGE RETROGRADES FURTHER WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PLACING THE AREA IN GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AS WELL. GUIDANCE BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS VIRGINIA AND INTO NE NC HEADING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STAYS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS ALSO BRINGING A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GENERAL
SHORTWAVE TRACK JUSTIFIES CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NC PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ON SUNDAY WE REMAIN IN GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE SC COASTAL PLAIN
AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW...SUNDAY APPEARS TO SUPPORT
CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ONCE
AGAIN THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING SO WE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS EXTENDING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
NC AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS...AND
EASTWARD OVER THE GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THIS TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE CHANNELED WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT...THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES...AND CHANNELED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CROSS OUR AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR
AREA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...DESPENING ON MODEL TIMING. THE FRONT
STALLS JUST TO OUR SE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINS OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND GREATER
INSTABILITY THAT WILL ONLY PARTIALLY DIMINISH EACH NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...FAVORING A BETTER CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE
TIME...BUT STEERING FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CELLS
MOVING...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTN. THE
HRRR DOES HINT AT ISOLD DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE....BUT DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S SO
THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. EXPECT MAINLY FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MTN RIDGES BOTH LATE AFTN TODAY
AND AGAIN FRI MORNING. LOW END WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
SUNDOWN...WITH MAINLY WSW FLOW EAST OF THE MTN AND NW WINDS AT KAVL.
FLOW SHOULD COME UP FROM THE NW THROUGHOUT WITH MIXING LATE FRI
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND TO PERMIT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER ANY CONVECTION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN
MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...VERY LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE
LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. THIS HAS CAPPED SBCAPE VALUES AT LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...AND WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WILL FURTHER SERVE TO CURTAIL
LATE DAY CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS ISOLD WEAK RIDGE TOP
SHOWERS/TSRA. THE HRRR HAS SCT NC FOOTHILLS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
CIRCA 19Z...BUT THIS WILL BE A STRUGGLE GIVEN THE MIXED OUT
DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...AN H5 RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE SE COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...WITH ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RIDING MAINLY BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY MAY MAKE SOME PROGRESS SWD INTO THE NRN TIER LATE DAY. IN
ADDITION...NW FLOW WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NRN TIER...BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CINH IN SOUNDINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TO
ONCE AGAIN LIMIT INSTABILITY AND TSTM POTENTIAL. THERE SHOULD BE AN
AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRI WHICH MAY
MAKE A RUN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NRN NC MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW
MODELS ALSO DEPICT ISOLD ACTIVITY OUT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
EXPECT WARM MINS AND MAXES ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. BENEATH THESE SHORTWAVES AT
THE SURFACE...AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
THERMAL PROFILES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO FAVOR SOME LOW LEVEL CIN AND POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THANKS THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. SOUNDINGS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST OVER WESTERN NC AND PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE ARE A TAD MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LESS CIN IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS LEAN TOWARD
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THESE MORE
FAVORABLE ZONES. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MCS PROPAGATION ALSO COMES
INTO PLAY LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR THE WESTERN NC MTNS AS
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KY AND
MIDDLE/EAST TN. EXPECTING A RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH DRY
PROFILES ALOFT THUS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
STRONG/SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. POPS
ON FRIDAY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS.
MODELS TRY TO SAG THE OLD FRONTAL AXIS INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS BEING UNCLEAR SUCH AS
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE INTRUSION. THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO WESTERN NC...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NC/SC STATELINE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE A TAD LESS AGGRESSIVE AS THEY
KEEP THE AXIS A HUNDRED OR SO MILES FURTHER NORTH.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL GUID FAVORS CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL AXIS WITH PERHAPS YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM MCS RIDING THE NW
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. PROFILES ARE A BIT
MORE MOIST ON SATURDAY THEREFORE LAPSE RATES AREA POORER WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY DEEP STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY COULD BE WET MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FCST
POPS ON SATURDAY FAVOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GA AND UPSTATE SC.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT DOES LOOK PUSH FURTHER SOUTH SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE SC MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY MORNING AMIDST FURTHER RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST....WHILE A SHORTWAVE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...MODELS
LEAN TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT WOULD PLACE THE OLD FRONTAL AXIS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. GUIDANCE DOES
FAVOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE BOUNDARY LOCATION. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS AT OR A TAD BELOW CLIMO FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO VEER SOUTHERLY YIELDING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEND THEMSELVES TO
EVEN HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THANKS TO A BUILDING/DIVING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH COULD SWING INTO
THE PICTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING HIGHS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTN. THE
HRRR DOES HINT AT ISOLD DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE....BUT DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S SO
THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. EXPECT MAINLY FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MTN RIDGES BOTH LATE AFTN TODAY
AND AGAIN FRI MORNING. LOW END WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
SUNDOWN...WITH MAINLY WSW FLOW EAST OF THE MTN AND NW WINDS AT KAVL.
FLOW SHOULD COME UP FROM THE NW THROUGHOUT WITH MIXING LATE FRI
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND TO PERMIT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER ANY CONVECTION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN
MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
956 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ALL OF MIDDLE TN IS DRY THIS MORNING WITH E-W BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH IN CENTRAL KY. HRRR KEEPS THE CWA MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTH. POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS WELL. HOURLY GRIDS ARE LOOKING
GOOD WITH THE WARM UP THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
REAGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/
12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE CKV
VICINITY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT....POSSIBLY EVEN BNA. OUTSIDE
OF A BRIEF STORM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 71 91 71 / 20 20 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 90 70 91 70 / 30 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 89 67 84 66 / 10 20 20 20
COLUMBIA 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 91 71 92 70 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL AND INTO EASTERN AR. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE TN/KY BORDER. LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ISOL ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE LATER TODAY.
THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...BUT
ONLY FOR THE NORTH HALF.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE TREND REMAINS THE SAME. UPPER HIGH
WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
BE LOW(GENERALLY 20%) AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE AFT AND EVE
HOURS AND ACROSS THE NORTH.
FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...VALUES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR TODAY LOOKS LIKELY. UPPER
RIDGING DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF ITS
WESTWARD MOMENT. THEREFORE...TEMPS MAY BACK DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
BY SAT.
IN THE EXT FCST...NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 1ST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED...THE FLOW WILL CARRY A SMALL DEGREE OF
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. BY THE END OF THE EXT...THE FLOW WILL
STRAIGHTEN OUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM.
THUS...POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH 22C FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL EQUATE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(ABOUT 5F OR SO).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 71 91 71 / 20 20 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 90 70 91 70 / 20 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 89 67 84 66 / 10 20 20 20
COLUMBIA 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 91 71 92 70 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. REMOVED THE MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AT KCKV BUT
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKING WESTWARD BY 07-08Z FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
BRIEF SHOWER. WILL LEAVE OUT OF PREVAILING FOR NOW AND AMD AS
NECESSARY.
A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DROPPING STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE ADDED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TS BY 00Z FRIDAY AT
KCKV WITH A VCTS.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAS REASSERTED
ITSELF TODAY, PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST A
BIT FARTHER AWAY, ENABLING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND KEEPING THE RAIN AWAY. EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX
DOES SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS EVENING, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.37 INCHES, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, A 1011 MB LOW IS SITUATED
NEAR ST. LOUIS, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT RUNNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THERE IS PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
SLIPPING INTO WESTERN KY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WE ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED POP`S IN OUR FAR NW FOR TONIGHT. AM NOT INCLINED TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HOURLY GRIDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP WELL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. UPDATED
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MENTIONED THAT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO
NORTHWEST TN. WILL HAVE THE UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS OUT
SOON.
JCL
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO THE NORTH...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE NAM IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH SHOWING
INCREASING 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...LIMITING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST IS THE TRANSITION BACK TO
DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WAS
ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN WEST-CENTRAL MO WITH AN ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ORIENTED EAST/WEST SOUTH OF I-70.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN
STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BEST COLLOCATION OF
THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS IS LOCATED ACROSS E MO/SRN IL. SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...WIND FIELDS ALOFT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MID-SOUTH BEGINS A SLOW WARM
UP. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20 C
ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S ON THURSDAY INCREASING TO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL STILL BE OPPRESSIVE FOR THOSE
WORKING FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
IN THE LONG-TERM...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO
SMALLER-SCALE PATTERN DETAILS...BUT MOST LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A CUTOFF LOW/VORT MAX WILL BECOME
DISPLACED FROM THE LARGER HUDSON BAY CIRCULATION BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING OFF ENERGY...BUT
AGREES THAT A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
COOLER/WETTER PERIOD WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BUT DETAILS OF
SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION
06Z TAFS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A STRAY SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE AT JBR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AT 5 TO 11 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM...JBR
AND MKL BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 10/01Z.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. UPDATED
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MENTIONED THAT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO
NORTHWEST TN. WILL HAVE THE UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS OUT
SOON.
JCL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO THE NORTH...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE NAM IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH SHOWING
INCREASING 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...LIMITING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST IS THE TRANSITION BACK TO
DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WAS
ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN WEST-CENTRAL MO WITH AN ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ORIENTED EAST/WEST SOUTH OF I-70.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN
STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BEST COLLOCATION OF
THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS IS LOCATED ACROSS E MO/SRN IL. SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...WIND FIELDS ALOFT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MID-SOUTH BEGINS A SLOW WARM
UP. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20 C
ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S ON THURSDAY INCREASING TO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL STILL BE OPPRESSIVE FOR THOSE
WORKING FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
IN THE LONG-TERM...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO
SMALLER-SCALE PATTERN DETAILS...BUT MOST LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A CUTOFF LOW/VORT MAX WILL BECOME
DISPLACED FROM THE LARGER HUDSON BAY CIRCULATION BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING OFF ENERGY...BUT
AGREES THAT A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
COOLER/WETTER PERIOD WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BUT DETAILS OF
SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION NUISANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SMALL
WINDOW NEAR SUNRISE WHEN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. BROKEN LINE OF
T-STORMS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
SKIRTING JBR...OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL BE DRY AND VFR.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED NORTH TEXAS
AIRSPACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND
GOOD FLYING WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME VERY BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS IN WACO JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET BRINGS SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANY
MVFR CEILINGS DO DEVELOP IN WACO THEY WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY
16Z SATURDAY.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 7 AND 13 KNOTS.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/
AT MID AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER AND A RISE IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND HRRR TRY TO SHOW A FEW
CELLS MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL JUST LEAVE 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO WEATHER MENTIONED. A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DECREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 94 76 96 77 / 5 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 73 94 74 96 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 73 92 73 93 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 72 94 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 74 93 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 76 95 77 96 78 / 5 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 74 93 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 76 93 74 94 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 93 73 95 73 / 5 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 93 73 95 73 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015
.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to include a slight chance of thunderstorms
across all of the Big Country this afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm outflow boundary moving slowly south along a Roby...
Stamford...Woodson line at Noon will be focus for isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Lee trough will bring gusty south winds this afternoon and
again Friday beginning mid morning. Winds gusts between
20 and 25 KTS expected. MVFR stratus will return towards
morning Friday, scattering out mid morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Currently seeing MVFR stratus across the southern terminals
and this should persist through the mid morning hours before
scattering out to VFR. South winds will increase 15 to 20 kt
today, diminishing by sunset. Stratus is expected to develop
across towards daybreak Friday, with MVFR ceilings returning
to the southern terminals after 09Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The subtropical ridge over the southeast states will begin
to build west into Texas the next 24 hours, and will be the
main weather feature affecting our weather through tonight.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
east-southeast across the Texas Panhandle and far northwest Texas
early this morning. This activity will track east along the Red
River Valley through the morning hours, with the majority of the
precipitation remaining north of the area. The HRRR however, does
generate some QPF across Haskell and Throckmorton counties this
morning. Cannot rule this out so have added slight POPs to the
forecast for both counties this morning. Otherwise, morning cloud
cover will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon, with
highs around 90 degrees. We`ll see some stratus redevelop late
tonight across southern sections, with overnight lows around 70
degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
On Friday, an upper level ridge across the Southeast United States
will continue to build west toward West Central Texas. In the
meantime, daytime heating should allow for the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Texas. The 00z NAM
is the most aggressive with this scenario, which drifts the
convection east, toward our western counties. Whether any of this
convection makes it into our western counties will be dependent on
the strength of the developing ridge, but for now the forecast was
kept dry. Highs on Friday will be below seasonal normals,
generally in the lower 90s.
A much quieter weather pattern is expected this weekend through much
of next week as an upper level ridge dominates the weather.
Temperatures will slowly creep up each day, although plentiful soil
moisture should help to keep temperatures a few degrees below MOS
guidance. High temperatures for the first part of next week will
generally be in the mid to upper 90s, although a few locations may
reach the century mark. No rain is forecast through the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 90 70 91 71 91 / 20 0 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 70 92 71 92 / 5 5 5 5 0
Junction 91 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 5 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
644 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Currently seeing MVFR stratus across the southern terminals
and this should persist through the mid morning hours before
scattering out to VFR. South winds will increase 15 to 20 kt
today, diminishing by sunset. Stratus is expected to develop
across towards daybreak Friday, with MVFR ceilings returning
to the southern terminals after 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The subtropical ridge over the southeast states will begin
to build west into Texas the next 24 hours, and will be the
main weather feature affecting our weather through tonight.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
east-southeast across the Texas Panhandle and far northwest Texas
early this morning. This activity will track east along the Red
River Valley through the morning hours, with the majority of the
precipitation remaining north of the area. The HRRR however, does
generate some QPF across Haskell and Throckmorton counties this
morning. Cannot rule this out so have added slight POPs to the
forecast for both counties this morning. Otherwise, morning cloud
cover will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon, with
highs around 90 degrees. We`ll see some stratus redevelop late
tonight across southern sections, with overnight lows around 70
degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
On Friday, an upper level ridge across the Southeast United States
will continue to build west toward West Central Texas. In the
meantime, daytime heating should allow for the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Texas. The 00z NAM
is the most aggressive with this scenario, which drifts the
convection east, toward our western counties. Whether any of this
convection makes it into our western counties will be dependent on
the strength of the developing ridge, but for now the forecast was
kept dry. Highs on Friday will be below seasonal normals,
generally in the lower 90s.
A much quieter weather pattern is expected this weekend through much
of next week as an upper level ridge dominates the weather.
Temperatures will slowly creep up each day, although plentiful soil
moisture should help to keep temperatures a few degrees below MOS
guidance. High temperatures for the first part of next week will
generally be in the mid to upper 90s, although a few locations may
reach the century mark. No rain is forecast through the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 90 70 91 71 91 / 5 0 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 70 92 71 92 / 5 5 5 5 0
Junction 91 70 90 70 90 / 5 0 5 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
353 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The subtropical ridge over the southeast states will begin
to build west into Texas the next 24 hours, and will be the
main weather feature affecting our weather through tonight.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
east-southeast across the Texas Panhandle and far northwest Texas
early this morning. This activity will track east along the Red
River Valley through the morning hours, with the majority of the
precipitation remaining north of the area. The HRRR however, does
generate some QPF across Haskell and Throckmorton counties this
morning. Cannot rule this out so have added slight POPs to the
forecast for both counties this morning. Otherwise, morning cloud
cover will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon, with
highs around 90 degrees. We`ll see some stratus redevelop late
tonight across southern sections, with overnight lows around 70
degrees.
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
On Friday, an upper level ridge across the Southeast United States
will continue to build west toward West Central Texas. In the
meantime, daytime heating should allow for the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Texas. The 00z NAM
is the most aggressive with this scenario, which drifts the
convection east, toward our western counties. Whether any of this
convection makes it into our western counties will be dependent on
the strength of the developing ridge, but for now the forecast was
kept dry. Highs on Friday will be below seasonal normals,
generally in the lower 90s.
A much quieter weather pattern is expected this weekend through much
of next week as an upper level ridge dominates the weather.
Temperatures will slowly creep up each day, although plentiful soil
moisture should help to keep temperatures a few degrees below MOS
guidance. High temperatures for the first part of next week will
generally be in the mid to upper 90s, although a few locations may
reach the century mark. No rain is forecast through the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 90 70 91 71 91 / 5 0 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 70 92 71 92 / 5 5 5 5 0
Junction 91 70 90 70 90 / 5 0 5 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JW/Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SCT/BKN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR STRATUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO BKN MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
IN THE MID LEVELS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...THAT REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WHATS LEFT OF A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT A LINE FROM GRAYSON COUNTY...THROUGH DENTON COUNTY TO
PARKER AND EARTH COUNTIES...THEN DOWN INTO COMANCHE COUNTY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR THAT AREA. WHERE THIS FRONT MOVES WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. WHERE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT TRACKS WILL BE
THE MOST CONCERNING. THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...THEY BOTH HAVE IT TRACKING EAST AND THEN
LIFTING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO FALL APART AT THIS POINT IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS AND THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...WITH THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
REMOVED.
BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THEREFORE, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
MIGHT START TO SEE SOME OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THIS
YEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT SOME
CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE KEEP WEATHER OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
78.JG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 93 76 94 76 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 92 73 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 72 91 73 93 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 74 91 72 94 72 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 75 93 74 92 74 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 76 93 77 95 78 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 74 91 74 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 75 91 75 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 91 72 92 72 / 5 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 90 71 91 71 / 10 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
134 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL STAY UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO/PA AREA BY
THURSDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGES HEADS WEST ALLOWING A
BACKDOOR FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN DRIFTING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOW.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...AND ONLY SOME VERY MEAGER
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN OH. HRRR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING NOW TO BELOW MENTIONABLE BY 06Z...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE A LINGER SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL BASED ON CURRENT READINGS STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND DEWPOINTS 68 TO 74 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA.
AS OF 1000 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED. SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT REMOVED BY SPC. ONLY LIGHT RAIN TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA
AT THIS TIME...AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITED HEATING TODAY. EVENING SOUNDING
SHOWED 500MB TEMP OF -5C...QUITE WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS FOR
NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
VA/WV/MD.
FOCUS WILL NOW TURN TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE A MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LATE DAY/EVENING EVENT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR WITH A SLIGHT RISK
UP IN THE LWX AREA. OVERALL...WOULD EXPECT TOMORROW TO PRESENT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THAN TODAY...BUT IT MAY
BE A LATE DAY EVENT...WITH NOT MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EVALUATING FLOOD THREAT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THREAT...PIEDMONT REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER NOT HELPING WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SO FAR THERE HAS BASICALLY BEEN NOTHING ACROSS THE
AREA...THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF WHICH IS IN A MARGINAL RISK.
ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE WHETHER OR NOT OUTFLOW FROM DISSIPATING
ACTIVITY IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THIS AREA AND SPARK
OFF NEW CONVECTION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PROBABILITY FOR
THIS TO OCCUR SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT NOTING ACTIVITY DOWN
TOWARD KRDU/KGSO...IT SEEMS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL COORDINATE WITH
SPC AND IF FEELING IS THAT SEVERE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...WILL
REMOVE FROM THIS THREAT FROM THE HWO.
WITH RESPECT TO THE FLOOD THREAT AND THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...WILL LEAVE AS IS SINCE IT ONLY HAS A LITTLE OVER TWO HOURS
LEFT. TO THIS POINT...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FFA. WATCHING AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SPREADING TOWARD THE WV COUNTIES FROM
RALEIGH/FAYETTE/NICHOLAS COUNTY AREA. WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR
NOW...BUT IF THIS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...WILL LIKELY CANCEL FFA
EARLY.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/POPS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ELECTED TO POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST UNTIL
10 PM WITH LOW FFG AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED TO OUR NORTH
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
BEEN HINDERED BY THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECTED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE IN THE UNSTABLE MOIST AIR
WITH CAPES 2 TO 3K J/KG AND LIS FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FROM WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 KTS. WPC
HAS US A SLICE OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO BATH COUNTY VA IN
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WITH VERY LOW 1 TO 3
HOUR FFG. SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED CREEK LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
WITH THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPING OUR AREA IN GENERAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
ENERGY AND AREA OF RAIN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT...WITH MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR US TONIGHT. ADDED FOG TO ISC GRIDS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN SOME CLEARING...LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BEING SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED POPS CLOSER TO GFS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AND TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS SOUTHEAST. SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS PUSH THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL INTO NORTH PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...HEIGHTS FALLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...TO SINK SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A DAILY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN CWA FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT...ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO BECOME HUNG-UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...EXPANDING INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT
WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH. THE
GFS IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF THE SOLUTIONS...ENTERTAINING A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH VCNTY OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED...ITS RUN TO RUN
SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES VS NO
CUTOFF SOLUTION AT ALL.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE FRONTAL
ZONE REMAINING CLOSE...IF NOT ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SUGGESTS A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PATH OF DEEP
CONVECTION. AS SUCH LONG TERM FORECAST REFLECTS A SHOTGUN STANCE
FOR POPS...ALTHOUGH FAVORED THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR GREATEST POPS/THUNDER COINCIDENT WITH PEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMS...ALTHOUGH WOULD
FAVOR SOMETHING JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PROBABILITY OF FOG INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT. MODELS ARE NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD
BUT HAVE TEMPO FOR DENSE FOG AT LWB...WHILE BCB MAY HIT IFR AT
TIMES BETWEEN 09-12Z. A LITTLE FOG AT DANVILLE WILL OCCUR ALSO BUT
EXPECT ONLY MVFR AT TIMES BETWEEN 09-13Z.
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY NORTH OF A BLF-LYH LINE...BUT THE LATEST
MODELS HOLD OFF ON ANY THREAT UNTIL LATE EVENING...AND EVEN THEN
IT IS LOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE...SUBJECT TO DAILY
THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADA PROVINCES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER
IOWA...ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE 09.12Z NAM AND 09.15Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION DEVELOPING AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH 5000 FEET TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 07Z
FRIDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF FIRST IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER DPROG/DT. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM
INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE PERIOD AND EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY OUT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW PV
ADVECTION/LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
IMPULSE AND FOCUS THE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT...PER DPROG/DT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WITH
THE IMPULSE TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EFFECIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS/IMPULSE WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AT ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION.
SUNDAY...IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IMPULSE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE IMPULSE PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEN...THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE...WHERE THE 09.12Z GFS BREAKS
DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND THE
09.12Z ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DECENT LIFT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW AND SURFACE FRONT/LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ON AND
OFF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
IT SEEMS CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DEEPER LIGHT
WIND LAYER AND THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL BE QUITE DRY. SINCE WE
ARE EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME IFR BR
CONDITIONS AT KLSE AROUND SUNRISE. THE CIG IFR CONDITIONS ARE OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF 1/4SM AT KLSE AROUND 11Z. IF YOU HAVE AVIATION
INTERESTS AT KLSE IN THE MORNING...MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1003 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW. 925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 18-19C TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THAN THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS...THOUGH STILL LIKELY FALLING A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOWER LYING AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
DRY WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS
IT TRACKS FROM CENTRAL IL TO THE IN/OH/MI BORDER AREA AROUND
12Z...AND PA/NY BY 00Z FRI. 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT SWEEPS ACROSS U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...MOVING EAST OF THE STATE BY 18Z.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE NOTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE...BUT THIS LAYER
NEVER FULLY SATURATES ON THE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE ALSO SUPPORTS NO
MORE THAN SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CUMULUS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ON NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...THEN TEMPS STEADY OUT AS WINDS TURN NW TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MID-UPPER 70S...WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE FAR EAST.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
500 MB RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER MN/IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI AND SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE LOWER 80S BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AS LONG AS THE CLOUDS
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH IOWA WILL
COMBINE WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850MB FRONTOGENESIS TO
BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL COOLING
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAPE OVER THE AREA. THE
LLJ SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE VEERING AWAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN MCS-LIKE
FEATURE DEVELOPING IN THE IA/WI/IL AREA. SPC HAS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE THE TIME HANDLING THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES... IT SEEMS THEY ARE
HEADING TOWARD AGREEMENT... AT LEAST FOR THE SATURDAY-SAT NT TIME
FRAME.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT IN THE MORNING. THEN ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STATIONED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WI
AREA SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE 00Z ECWMF IS MAINTAINING A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS BACK TO ITS NORTHERLY SOLUTION. THUS... LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS
STILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
WI... BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHICH
SIDE OF THE FRONT THEY ARE ON. THE HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHOWS
NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK... SO EXPECT THIS
NORTHWESTERLY... ACTIVE AND UNCERTAIN FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN WI.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE FAR SE TO LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 03Z SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE...BUT THIS LAYER NEVER FULLY
SATURATES ON THE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE ALSO SUPPORTS NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN VFR LEVEL CUMULUS. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS
OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY. NAM GUIDANCE ALONE IN SHOWING ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH FOG
AT TAF SITES...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
DRY WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS
IT TRACKS FROM CENTRAL IL TO THE IN/OH/MI BORDER AREA AROUND
12Z...AND PA/NY BY 00Z FRI. 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT SWEEPS ACROSS U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...MOVING EAST OF THE STATE BY 18Z.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE NOTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE...BUT THIS LAYER
NEVER FULLY SATURATES ON THE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE ALSO SUPPORTS NO
MORE THAN SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CUMULUS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ON NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...THEN TEMPS STEADY OUT AS WINDS TURN NW TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MID-UPPER 70S...WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE FAR EAST.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
500 MB RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER MN/IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI AND SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE LOWER 80S BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AS LONG AS THE CLOUDS
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH IOWA WILL
COMBINE WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850MB FRONTOGENESIS TO
BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL COOLING
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAPE OVER THE AREA. THE
LLJ SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE VEERING AWAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN MCS-LIKE
FEATURE DEVELOPING IN THE IA/WI/IL AREA. SPC HAS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE THE TIME HANDLING THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES... IT SEEMS THEY ARE
HEADING TOWARD AGREEMENT... AT LEAST FOR THE SATURDAY-SAT NT TIME
FRAME.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT IN THE MORNING. THEN ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STATIONED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WI
AREA SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE 00Z ECWMF IS MAINTAINING A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS BACK TO ITS NORTHERLY SOLUTION. THUS... LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS
STILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
WI... BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHICH
SIDE OF THE FRONT THEY ARE ON. THE HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHOWS
NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK... SO EXPECT THIS
NORTHWESTERLY... ACTIVE AND UNCERTAIN FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN WI.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE FAR SE TO LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 03Z SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE...BUT THIS LAYER NEVER FULLY
SATURATES ON THE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE ALSO SUPPORTS NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN VFR LEVEL CUMULUS. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS
OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY. NAM GUIDANCE ALONE IN SHOWING ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH FOG
AT TAF SITES...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1035 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
THE REST OF THIS MORNING BUT STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS NOON TIME WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOW
GENERALLY SHOWING BETWEEN 500 AND 1200 J/KG AND WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
VERY LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
THE DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN CHEYENNE
AND THE SUMMIT HAS LIFTED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THERE MAY BE A FEW
POCKETS OF FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY
ERODE. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM MAIN CONCERN IS WITH DENSE FOG THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ALONG I-80 AND I-25 IN
THESE AREAS WILL GO UP AND DOWN BETWEEN 1/8TH OF A MILE TO 1 MILE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GO A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATE MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK/LIFT THE AREAS OF FOG.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
16Z.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN A BIT...AROUND 0.80
INCHES MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER SE
WYOMING TODAY WHERE MORE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
MORE STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND MUCAPES AROUND 1100 J/KG
AROUND CHEYENNE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING DO SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MAYBE JUST EAST...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
VIRTUALLY NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED YESTERDAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIES DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. TODAY
WE STILL SEE A CAP AROUND 700 MB OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT
THAT CAP IS WEAKER. TODAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND A SMALL
POTENTIAL TO BREAK THE CAP SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST MOVERS TODAY GIVEN ONLY
10-15 KT OF STORM MOTION...SO AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF
POTENTIAL ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES WHERE STRONGER STORMS FORM
UP...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
STORMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. ANY LINGERING STORMS INTO
THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAST AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW POPS
GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY...ONE THING THAT CATCHES THE EYE IS MODELS PEGGING THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MIDLVEL
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY FAT CAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
TOMORROW...BUT SOME WEAK ROTATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW WITH INCREASED HAIL POTENTIAL FOR
OUR EASTERN-MOST ZONES. LATER FORECASTS CAN BETTER DEFINE ANY
SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH LOWER THREAT EAST
TO THE LARAMIE RANGE OF WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
NICE...DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GETS
DRAWN NORTH INTO MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WYOMING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +12
TO +14C. COULD BE WINDY OUT WEST AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 40KTS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TUESDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH OUT OF COLORADO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCYS. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE WITH LATEST HRRR FINALLY
BREAKING OUT KSNY BY 16-17Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AFTER STRATUS BREAKS UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
ABOVE NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NOTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO
BECOME DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MONSOONAL PATTERN OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES COMES BACK BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
801 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
THE DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN CHEYENNE
AND THE SUMMIT HAS LIFTED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THERE MAY BE A FEW
POCKETS OF FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY
ERODE. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM MAIN CONCERN IS WITH DENSE FOG THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ALONG I-80 AND I-25 IN
THESE AREAS WILL GO UP AND DOWN BETWEEN 1/8TH OF A MILE TO 1 MILE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GO A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATE MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK/LIFT THE AREAS OF FOG.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
16Z.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN A BIT...AROUND 0.80
INCHES MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER SE
WYOMING TODAY WHERE MORE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
MORE STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND MUCAPES AROUND 1100 J/KG
AROUND CHEYENNE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING DO SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MAYBE JUST EAST...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
VIRTUALLY NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED YESTERDAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIES DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. TODAY
WE STILL SEE A CAP AROUND 700 MB OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT
THAT CAP IS WEAKER. TODAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND A SMALL
POTENTIAL TO BREAK THE CAP SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST MOVERS TODAY GIVEN ONLY
10-15 KT OF STORM MOTION...SO AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF
POTENTIAL ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES WHERE STRONGER STORMS FORM
UP...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
STORMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. ANY LINGERING STORMS INTO
THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAST AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW POPS
GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY...ONE THING THAT CATCHES THE EYE IS MODELS PEGGING THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MIDLVEL
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY FAT CAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
TOMORROW...BUT SOME WEAK ROTATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW WITH INCREASED HAIL POTENTIAL FOR
OUR EASTERN-MOST ZONES. LATER FORECASTS CAN BETTER DEFINE ANY
SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH LOWER THREAT EAST
TO THE LARAMIE RANGE OF WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
NICE...DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GETS
DRAWN NORTH INTO MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WYOMING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +12
TO +14C. COULD BE WINDY OUT WEST AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 40KTS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TUESDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH OUT OF COLORADO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCYS. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE WITH LATEST HRRR FINALLY
BREAKING OUT KSNY BY 16-17Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AFTER STRATUS BREAKS UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
ABOVE NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NOTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO
BECOME DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MONSOONAL PATTERN OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES COMES BACK BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
513 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM MAIN CONCERN IS WITH DENSE FOG THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ALONG I-80 AND I-25 IN
THESE AREAS WILL GO UP AND DOWN BETWEEN 1/8TH OF A MILE TO 1 MILE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GO A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATE MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK/LIFT THE AREAS OF FOG.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
16Z.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN A BIT...AROUND 0.80
INCHES MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER SE
WYOMING TODAY WHERE MORE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
MORE STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND MUCAPES AROUND 1100 J/KG
AROUND CHEYENNE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING DO SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MAYBE JUST EAST...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
VIRTUALLY NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED YESTERDAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIES DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. TODAY
WE STILL SEE A CAP AROUND 700 MB OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT
THAT CAP IS WEAKER. TODAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND A SMALL
POTENTIAL TO BREAK THE CAP SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST MOVERS TODAY GIVEN ONLY
10-15 KT OF STORM MOTION...SO AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF
POTENTIAL ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES WHERE STRONGER STORMS FORM
UP...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
STORMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. ANY LINGERING STORMS INTO
THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAST AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW POPS
GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY...ONE THING THAT CATCHES THE EYE IS MODELS PEGGING THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MIDLVEL
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY FAT CAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
TOMORROW...BUT SOME WEAK ROTATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW WITH INCREASED HAIL POTENTIAL FOR
OUR EASTERN-MOST ZONES. LATER FORECASTS CAN BETTER DEFINE ANY
SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH LOWER THREAT EAST
TO THE LARAMIE RANGE OF WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
NICE...DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GETS
DRAWN NORTH INTO MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WYOMING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +12
TO +14C. COULD BE WINDY OUT WEST AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 40KTS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TUESDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH OUT OF COLORADO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCYS. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE WITH LATEST HRRR FINALLY
BREAKING OUT KSNY BY 16-17Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AFTER STRATUS BREAKS UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
ABOVE NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NOTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO
BECOME DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MONSOONAL PATTERN OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES COMES BACK BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1011 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND MODEST MID-LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE...SO WE TRENDED
LOWER WITH POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...BUT FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE MOIST LLVL AIR
MASS IN PLACE AFTER RECENT RAINS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD LLVL SATURATION AFTER 06Z WITH WEAK UPSLOPE STAYING INTACT
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS FROM 06-15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLIP SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SE WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR SHOWING A
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NRN COLORADO TO THE SE OF CHEYENNE. IT
APPEARS THIS CIRCULATION IS DRAWING SOME DRIER AIR SOUTH OVER SE
WY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVER THAT AREA. EXPECT THE
BULK OF THE PCPN TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME TSTRMS REFIRING LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS MODEST INSTABILITIES GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA AND WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH WEAK
RIDGING PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
FRIDAY WILL BRING IN WARMING TEMPS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN. SE WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASE INSTABILITIES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THERE...AIDED BY A SFC
TROF THAT SHOULD LIE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVR THE SRN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...YIELDING A GENERALLY DRY
WEEKEND. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVR THE HIER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE 12Z ECMWF BRUSHES THE CWFA WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NRN WYOMING. THE GFS SUGGESTS NO SUCH SHORTWAVE. LEFT ANY MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES AND WARMING
TEMPS. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 15-16C...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NR NORMAL WITH 80S AND SOME LOW 90S EXPECTED.
UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL AMPLIFY RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE MED BOWS AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER/MORE SEASONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE-WED ELSEWHERE...AS UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
FALL IN FLATTENING ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
WYOMING TAFS...MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH IFR DEVELOPING AT LARAMIE
AND CHEYENNE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH VFR AT RAWLINS.
VFR PREVAILS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEBRASKA TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR AT ALL
SITES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR AT SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
NO CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. DRYING SOME ALONG WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT CONDITIONS
REMAINING NON-CRITICAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA/WRN NV CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CONFINE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO FAR ERN AND SERN AZ...MAINLY AREAS EAST
OF PHOENIX. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WEST OF PHOENIX
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EAST. A COUPLE OF
INTERESTING THINGS TO NOTE...DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS SEEN IN THE
LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA...MOISTURE DID INCREASE IN THE PHOENIX AREA
DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY AND THE PHOENIX RAOB SHOWED PWAT UP TO 1.35
INCHES...WHICH WAS HIGHER THAN TUCSON WHICH REPORTED 1.21 INCHES.
ALSO...FRI EVENING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS HAD
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...A RISE OF MORE THAN 20 DEGREES
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SO...DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
VERY LAMINAR UPPER STREAMLINE FIELD AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...AROUND MIDNIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH VALLEY...NEAR NEW RIVER...AND THEY
MOVED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TROFFING TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW THE MAIN UPPER HIGH
TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS. STILL...THE MAIN HIGH CENTER REMAINS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF ARIZONA AND AS SUCH
STEERING FLOW REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH WE ARE STILL
EXPECTED CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AS
WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 28 ACROSS NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY.
ALL AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY SHOULD STAY GENLY CLEAR WITH POPS
LOW SINGLE DIGITS OR ZERO.
AS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT TROFFING TO OUR
NORTHWEST...OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE MAIN UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE
MINIMAL FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD EACH DAY AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX. WE ARE LOOKING AT A VERY LOW GRADE MONSOON FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HOTTER DESERTS REACHING NEAR 110 DEGREES.
DESPITE H5 HEIGHTS STAYING MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 591DM EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...ITS UNUSUAL THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOMENTUM
AND ENERGY IN THE WEST COAST TROF HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONTROL THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER AZ IN MID JULY. THIS HAS PREVENTED THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SEASONALLY BULGING TO AZ THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...INCLUDING NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS IN
ORDER FOR OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WHERE MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST AZ PROVIDING A DAILY
THREAT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT/DIURNAL IN NATURE AROUND 12Z. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY STORMS AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS...NOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM DISTANT STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH ONLY SLIM
CHANCES OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE DESERTS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
FORECAST PWATS REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH TODAY WITH VALUES OF AN INCH
OR JUST ABOVE FAVORED IN THE RAP AND NAM WHILE GFS AND SREF PUT
VALUES BETWEEN .75 TO .9 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TX AND AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH.
NAM12 AND GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND NOON AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE JET STREAM IS LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF...UP THROUGH
LAS VEGAS AND CENTRAL UTAH WHICH WILL INCREASE ASCENT AND ALSO
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS ALWAYS HELPFUL IN CONVECTION. STRONGER
STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH VERY ISOLD
CONVECTION AFTER THAT.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS SUNDAY. THE NAM PAINTS AN
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS FAVORS THE SAN
JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH FOR MORE PRECIP. NOT SOLD ON NAM AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THOUGH LOWER...WILL STILL REMAIN AND THOUGH
THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE JET STREAM SHIFTS TO THE PLAIN
STATES...ENOUGH SUPPORT MAY ALLOW SOME RAIN TO FALL. WITH THAT IN
MIND...KEPT SCHC CONVECTION IN FORECAST FOR QUITE A BIT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A BIT MUCH BUT WE CAN TRIM THE FORECAST AS
NEWER MODELS COME IN.
TEMPS START TO RISE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MODELS ASSERT THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY
...EXPECT THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL CONTINUE AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST COAST. THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL FUEL MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MORE SUBTLE FEATURES NOT WELL HANDLED BY LARGE SCALE MODELS MAY
COME INTO PLAY.
MODELS POINT TO A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AT MIDWEEK AS ENERGY
EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENING THE RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD CUTTING OFF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL ERODE THE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING WITH GFS FASTER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
WITH GREATLY REDUCED MOIST CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK SO EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO CONTINUE. DRIER AIR TRANSLATES INTO GREATER SOLAR INSOLATION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
TREND UPWARD AS RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY...THOUGH
A WEAK DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM MAY GET A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTED OVER THE SAN JUAN/S PRIOR TO NOON. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG
WITH OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. CHANCES OF STORMS LOWERING CIGS
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS ARE LOW WITH OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING AIRPORT
OPERATIONS MORE LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND SO FAR ONLY A
FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR THE SRN SANGRES AND THE SWRN CO MTNS.
THE HRRR SHOWS ONLY SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN ENDING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE NAM IS QUITE
SIMILAR. LATE TONIGHT THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A LEE TROF OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS...AND EARLY SAT MORNING THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR OR NR KIOWA COUNTY...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WL
GO WITH A DRY SOLUTION FOR NOW.
ON SAT AN UPR HIGH CENTER WL MOVE WESTWARD INTO ERN TX...WITH AN UPR
TROF BEING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WL BE LIMITED MSTR OVR THE
FORECAST AREA ON SAT AND AS A RESULT...JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT
SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANY STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STORMS REMAINING MAINLY HIGH BASED
PRODUCING MORE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THAN RAINFALL. WARM TEMPS
ALOFT (14C TO 18C AT H7)...LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER AND
WETTER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
SENDING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER MAY AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS DRIER AIR WITHIN DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
342 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD BUT STILL REMAIN
EXTENDED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A
SWATH OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW DELAYING THE SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND FRIDAY.
AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE VERY DRY WITH GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES...MAYBE A LITTLE GREATER INLAND
NORTH SECTIONS. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR IS GENERATING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...THINK THAT THE DRYNESS OF
THE AIR WILL PRECLUDE MENTIONABLE CHANCES EXCEPT WHERE THE
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION OCCURS NEAR THE LAKE/ORANGE COUNTY
LINE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIMITED AND DELAYED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. MID 90S WERE INDICATED INLAND
YESTERDAY AT THE MAIN OBSERVATION AND FAWN SITES. THEREFORE HAVE
STUCK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AGAIN TODAY...
WITH NORTH COASTAL ZONE EVEN PUSHING TOWARDS 93-95 DEGREES.
SUN-TUE...EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHIFTS
WESTWARD AS TROUGH DEVELOPS DOWN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHIFTS SFC RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOSS
OF SUPPRESSION FROM RIDGE ALOFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
CAPE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY WHERE DRIER AIR LINGERS. HIGHEST POPS (UP TO
40-50 PERCENT) WILL EXIST FROM I-4 CORRIDOR WEST WHERE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL BE FAVORED LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES THEN SHIFT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES W/SW...FAVORING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
GREATER STORM COVERAGE OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID
90S INTERIOR ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MON/TUE
AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER.
WED-FRI...TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEAKENS INTO LATE WEEK WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH...BUT STILL
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOW LEVEL W/SW FLOW
MID WEEK GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE S/SW BY WEEKS END WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO HAVE MORE INLAND MOVEMENT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE FRI. LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...PUSHING EASTWARD OVER
EAST CENTRAL FL WED/THU WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES THEN TRANSITIONING TO
THE INTERIOR FRI.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...ANOTHER DAY WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON KSFB-KMCO-KISM WITH A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE AT KLEE BY EVENING. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS JUST YET.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR A 10 KNOT AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. THEN AS THE RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS FROM
ABOUT THE CAPE NORTHWARD. DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR WAS PRODUCING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SUN...RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO START OUT OF
THE S/SW IN THE MORNING AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING S/SE AND
INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KNOTS INTO THE AFT AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND
MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 3-4 FEET
OFFSHORE.
MON-WED...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL WITH WINDS MORE
PREDOMINANTLY S/SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AOB 4FT. MAIN
CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS IN THE AFT AND EVE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 74 95 74 / 10 10 30 30
MCO 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 40 40
MLB 91 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 91 71 92 73 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 95 78 96 77 / 30 20 50 40
SFB 95 76 96 76 / 10 10 30 40
ORL 95 77 96 76 / 10 10 40 40
FPR 91 71 92 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MO ARE OCCURING IN ASSOCIATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ. BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND CAMS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING
THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD THIS MORNING IN CONJUCTION WITH THE STEERING
FLOW ALOFT AND GRADUALLY VEERING LLJ. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ANY STORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE CURRENT MID
CLOUD EXTENT AND VEERING LLJ, I THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED-
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXISTS THIS MORNING AT LEAST DOWN TO THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLOUDS, CONVECTION AND LIFTING WARM FRONT, WARMING
LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME IN JULY.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THERE ARE LOTS OF QUESTIONS AND FORECAST CAVEATS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OUR LOCATION ON THE PERIPHERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO BOTH BIG HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TO THIS END THE MODELS ARE QUITE
VARIED ON THE STRENGTH OF LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING AND EASTERN EDGE
OF THE STRONGER CAPPING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF. THE ECMWF SEEMS MOST
AGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF QPF INTO OUR CWA DURING MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIODS. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS THIS THAT THE VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND ONLY MODERATELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
TONIGHT ARE SUFFICIENT TO MERIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, STRONG WARMING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FORMIDABLE CAP TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. A
RELATIVELY HOT AFTERNOON IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-103. THESE HI VALUES ARE LARGELY
BASED ON THE BELIEF THE MODELS ARE A BIT AGRESSIVE IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS. IF THE TDS ARE HIGHER THEN
WE MIGHT HAVE SOME 105 HIS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY A SHORT
WAVE TROF DIGGING FROM THE UPPER MS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD LEAD TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND COOLING AND WESTWARD RETREAT
OF THE EDGE OF CAPPING, ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO IL. THIS COULD BE A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES/CLUSTERS AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OVER THE NEXT 3 WITH CONTINUED
WARMING OF THE LOW-MID LEVELS - H85 TEMPS AOA +24 DEGC AND H7
TEMPS OF +12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z TUES. THIS LOOKS LIKE A DAY THAT
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED PROVIDED THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY SOMEHOW DOESN`T HAMPER IT. HEAT INDICES IN
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE 105+. I DON`T ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION
BEYOND THE MORNING RESIDUAL AND THE AFTERNOON CAP SHOULD BECOME
STOUT. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT COULD DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
PROVIDING FORCING AND WEAKENING THE CAP. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER STOUT AT 35-40 KTS. ALL
THE PARAMETERS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL DERECHO SWEEPING FROM
EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD AND IMPACTING FAR EASTERN MO
INTO IL.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY SINKS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN
WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE WEEK RESULTING IN PROLONGED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF IT.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
SHORT RANGE MODELS (RAP, HRRR) ARE AGREEING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH
OVERNIGH. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK BEST OR UIN WHERE THERE APPEARS TO
BE BETTER DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. TIMEING ON CURRENT TAF LOOKS
GOOD WITH SHROT RANGE MODELS SO WILL CHANGE PROB30 TO A TEMPO
GROUP. A VCSH FOR COU MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST.
WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH COU AT 14Z AND UIN AND 18Z.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: RAP AND HRRR DEVELOP PRECIPITATON NW-SE ALONG
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF IT HAPPENS IT LOOKS TO BE 10Z TO 14Z.
STILL, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE VICINITY FOR
NOW. WILL DELAY THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO 18Z
FOLLWING THE RAP/HRRR.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ROUNDS OF TS/SH WILL IMPACT THE SE PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ROW STANDS A GOOD CHANCE TO BE IMPACTED. OTHERWISE VERY
LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PERHAPS A STRAY
STRIKE OR TWO ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. ISOLD TO SCT STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. USING
VCTS/VCSH AT MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT FOR LVS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHLANDS WEST OF LVS SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DOWN DAY. BASED
ON THE STEERING FLOW...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ROW
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED BUT REALLY CANT
RULE OUT MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE
STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS TO RETURN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
FORCING A STRONG 40-60KT UPPER JET OVER AZ/NM. A 594DM H5 UPPER
HIGH DRIFTING WEST OVER EAST TX IS TAPPING A JUICY ATMOSPHERE FROM
MEXICO AND SHIFTING IT NORTHWARD INTO THE FASTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
IN THIS PATTERN IS FORCING SEVERAL STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE STORM COVERAGE IS
LESS TODAY AND ACTIVITY IS BUMPING ALONG QUICKLY FOR JULY...THUS
LIMITING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS
BETWEEN 3PM AND 7PM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION
PATTERN REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. STORM MOTIONS MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST AND IMPINGES ON
THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER BURST IS ADVERTISED BY
MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. INCREASED POPS AGAIN SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...
A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE THE FEWEST STORMS WHILE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES REMAIN MORE ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY REACH NORMAL OR HIGHER LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND
MUCH OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST DAYS WITH LOWER VALUES...AND SOME AREAS OF
POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION ON SUNDAY AND THURSDAY.
INTERESTING PATTERN FOR JULY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW
POSITIONED CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
JET EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN BAJA...ACROSS ARIZONA AND OVER NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME ARE PRODUCING HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING
HAVE NOT REALLY TRANSLATED INTO WESTERN ZONES TODAY. THUS...
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...MAINTAINING THE FLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDING OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN A WESTWARD NUDGE OF THE MONSOON
PLUME. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE MOST ZONES...WITH THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CORNERS LEAST FAVORED. BY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERN ZONES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FAVORED.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS ANY
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC NAM AND 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
WHILE ISOLATED CELLS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR HAVE LEAD TO VERY
QUICK DISSIPATION OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE HRRR THUS FAR THIS
EVENING FROM RUN TO RUN HAS OVER DEVELOPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE/LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT. THUS...FAVORED
THE 18 UTC NAM AND 15 UTC SREF WHOSE QPF FIELDS ARE CLOSET TO
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC. DO EXPECT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...CONTINUED WEAK
SHEAR PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2150 UTC OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A
TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 18-20 UTC HRRR RUNS...INTRODUCED POPS
TO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH
A VARIETY OF WEAK VORTICES WORKING AROUND THE SYSTEM. OVER OUR
AREA...SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STARTING
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY
A VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES...THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR IS AVAILABLE
SO EXPECT STORMS OVERALL TO REMAIN TAME AND RATHER PULSE.
ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DRAWING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A DRYLINE WILL SETUP
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TIMING OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIETY OF SHORT
WAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES QUITE A BIT
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST SHEAR
TO BRING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE SATURDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
RECEIVE MANY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE SUCH UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. A RATHER
WARM AND MUGGY SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE INDICATING
VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST SPC
SEVERE OUTLOOKS PLACE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST.
AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS WEEKEND`S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SEEING THE MCS/MCV TYPE SYS COMING TO FRUITION OVER SE OH AND NE
KY OVER THE LAST HR. LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES BEAR THIS OUT
ALONG WITH RADAR. 00Z NAM AND LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
LATCHED ON TO THIS NOW THAT IT HAS DEVELOPED. AS SUCH...HAVE
LEANED HEAVILY ON THESE MODELS FOR REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN OF A RENEWED FLASH FLOOD EVENT IN THE C
LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT...OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT HARD THE PAST
FEW DAYS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES UNDER A SOMEWHAT NARROW
BAND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROUTE 33 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE N
MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THAT WONT FALL
OFF THE TURNTABLE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 1730Z. HIGH
PWS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY 1.6 TO 2 INCHES...ONCE
AGAIN. UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE MIDWEST...IS
HELPING TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME WITH
FLOODING RAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
SOME FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED...AND HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE MAY BE A LITTLE LONG IN DURATION...BUT
WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...MCS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
AFFECT AT LEAST WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. HAVE A
WATCH OUT FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL 4 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEN...MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE
AT H500 CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES MODELS BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THEREFORE...INCREASE POPS TO TO
HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY AND TO LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PWATS GOING BACK TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LUSH VEGETATION...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS... TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT ALSO HUMID. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ALLOWED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES BY THE
MODELS IN THE LONG PERIOD. THEREFORE...ALLOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON.
WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.
WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH THE LOW STRATUS ONCE THE SHOWERS PASS TO THE EAST OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD KEEP THE VISIBILITIES FROM GOING DOWN TOO
FAR THIS MORNING.
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER 12Z TODAY...AND ONCE HEATING TAKES
PLACE...EXPECTING SLOW IMPROVEMENTS OF THE CEILINGS...BUT COULD
TAKE UNTIL 15-16Z TODAY TO REACH VFR.
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BEING AN
ISSUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW STRATUS CLOUD FORMATION IS IN QUESTION.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
&&
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>008-
013>018-024>030-033>039-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ105.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>008-
013>018-024>030-033>039-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ105.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
356 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK THERMAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND HOP/WRF KEEP THE CONVECTION VERY
SPOTTY AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW
AND ENHANCE AS DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS CAPPING FROM INCREASINGLY WARM AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA. BY LATE
IN THE DAY THIS ACTIVITY...IF THERE IS ANY LEFT...SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME MINIMAL NEW
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...STRONG WARMING OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA MAY INCLUDE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE GETS CLOSER. THIS IDEA WAS
DEEMED REASONABLE IN THE EARLIER FORECAST AND STILL LOOKS SO...BUT
AGAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE.
THE SURGE OF WARMING AND HEATING SHOULD TAKE TEMPERATURES UP TO THE
90S WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID 80S EAST. LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL
BE PREVALENT IN AREAS EAST THIS MORNING SHOULD HEAT OUT AND
GENERALLY DECREASE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF STORMS FAR EAST WITH THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE A WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES WITHING A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HEAT AT THE FOREFRONT OF MID RANGE CONCERNS. CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TRAPPING NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE QUITE EFFECTIVELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN THIS EVENING WILL
ACT TO MODIFY ENVIRONMENT TO SOME DEGREE...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REINFORCE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EASTWARD.
EVENTUALLY...APPEARS AS IF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY OR A BIT EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND OTHER
THAN A BUFFER OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS...
MIXING WILL BE QUITE CHALLENGED BY THE STRONG INVERSION. AS A
RESULT...WILL PROBABLY NOT GET QUITE AS TOASTY FROM AROUND I29
EASTWARD...BUT STILL PLENTY WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE AREAS
WEST OF THE TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO FIND A FEW SPOTS REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK...AS DEWPOINTS MIX GREATLY INTO THE 50S. EVEN WITH THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...DEWPOINTS WILL SOAR WELL
INTO THE 70S...AND WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF 100 TO 105 DEGREE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX. JAMES VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE WORST
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE START TO SEE MIXING LOWERING THE MOISTURE
CONTENT. WITH THE LONG PERIOD SINCE LAST EXTREME HEAT AND THE
NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON THE WEEKEND...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
HEAT ADVISORY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY.
NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND A ROGUE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM TO
START THE DAY...BUT SUCH A LOW CHANCE THAT HAVE KEPT CLEAR OF THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND START TO ERODE SOME
OF THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT. REALLY HARD TO PICTURE THERE BEING ENOUGH
LIFT TO BREAK RESIDUAL INVERSION EVEN AFTER FULL HEATING...WITH
CIN LIKELY IN THE 50-150 J/KG RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE
CHANCE THERE COULD BE A GOLDILOCKS LOCATION WHERE THE WEAKENING
CAP AND FORCING ARE JUST RIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT WORTH
CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THREAT. HOWEVER...KEEP
AWARE...AS THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO MAKE
FOR A STRONGER STORM. PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR THINGS TO
COME TOGETHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
FORCING DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUICKLY
CLOSING WINDOW AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES QUICKLY PAST AND DEEPER
DRYING ON WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND ALLOW THE SURFACE TO RECOVER QUITE
A BIT IN THOSE FULLY MIXED AREAS...AND RETAIN SOME UPPER 60S
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ON MONDAY...AS SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...THE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELAXED SOMEWHAT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHEST READINGS EAST OF I 29 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
DEEPER MIXING SHOULD TAKE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WEST TO LOWER TO
MID 60S EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES. THE HEAT INDEX WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S. WILL HAVE TO
SEE IF WE GET ANOTHER INCREASE IN SMOKE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS COULD IMPACT TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WOULD SEEMINGLY BE A
BIT MORE ACTIVE IN GENERAL...WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BREACHED PERIODICALLY WITH SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COMMON FEATURE IN MODELS IS WAVE AROUND
WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FROM NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION IN
ECMWF COULD KEEP A BETTER BACKDOOR BOUNDARY AROUND MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WAVE HAS PROXIMITY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...BUT
DRASTICALLY DIFFERING TIMING IN GREATER ENSEMBLE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
SURFACE REFLECTION. WATCHING FOR ANOTHER EASTWARD SURGE IN WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...WHICH COULD BE ON THE WAY FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
FOR THE 06Z TAF SET...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT MVFR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW
THE THERMAL INVERSION. IN FACT EVEN CURRENTLY...THERE IS HIGHER
BASED STRATUS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND IN EASTERN NEBRASKA JUST
INSIDE THE VFR CATEGORY. SO THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
NOT A HUNDRED PERCENT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER...SO
KEPT THE CEILINGS AS BROKEN AND CERTAINLY DID NOT WANT TO GO IFR
AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE
TAF SET DRY BELIEVING THAT TSRA CHANCES ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
053>056-059>062-065>071.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITH ANOTHER OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE TREND IN THE 11.00Z MODELS AND
11.03Z RAP IS FOR THE WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO FLATTEN
OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TOP PART OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH WITH A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF IT REACHING ABOUT THE IOWA/MISSOURI
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS
WELL. THE MESO MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS AS WELL
WITH THE 11.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND NMM KEEPING THE AREA
DRY WHILE THE 11.00Z NAM12 AND 11.05Z HRRR STILL TRY TO BRING THE
REMAINS OF SOME DEVELOPING CENTRAL IOWA CONVECTION INTO THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR THIS MORNING. BASED ON ALL THESE
SOLUTIONS...HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN FOR TODAY WITH
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH TO AT MOST A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AS IT COULD END
UP BEING TOTALLY DRY NORTH OF THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE BIT OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TAKING ON A MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE NAM REALLY
RAMPS UP THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY AND BREAKS OUT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 11.00Z GFS SOMEWHAT HINTS AT THIS AS WELL WHILE THE
11.00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE HI-RES NMM IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHILE
THE HI-RES ARW IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT
THE NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT AND WILL
ONLY CARRY A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE REAL ACTION AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY COME SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER OREGON AND NEVADA. THIS WAVE SHOULD TOP
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT COMES ACROSS.
THIS LIFT SHOULD BE AIDED BY SOME JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE 300 MB JET AS THIS COMES IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTH EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO ILLINOIS WITH THE GFS SHOWING WEAK
TO MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER NORTH OF THE
FRONT. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SHOULD FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS
TO WORK WITH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS UP TO
2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE SUNDAY EVENING ONLY DROPPING OFF TO 1500 J/KG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UP TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR SHOULD MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THIS BEING PRIMARILY IN THE
0-3 KM LAYER. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NOCTURNAL
MCS TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SEVERE WIND THREAT. HAIL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF THREAT WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON THE ORDER
OF 3.5 TO 4 KM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL RATES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE FLATTENING OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW AND COME ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF A
WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS HANDLED. THE GFS OPENS THIS SYSTEM UP AND BRINGS IT
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AS
A CLOSED LOW HOLDING IT BACK WITH RIDGING OVER THE REGION. WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF TAF AIRFIELDS WITH ONLY A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP 11.06Z TAFS DRY FOR NOW GIVEN COVERAGE/
TIMING UNCERTAINTY. ASSUMING RUNWAYS REMAIN DRY...ANY CEILINGS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000 FT AGL...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO WATCH NORTHWARD EXTENT OF POTENTIAL MVFR DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL PERSIST AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
500 MB RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG A WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOME -SHRA CAN BE
SEEN IN SOUTHEAST IOWA AT 08Z SATURDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR 80F ACROSS
S WI...AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 20C BY THE GFS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHEAST.
11.06 HRRR MESO MODEL IS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER AS THE HRRR
IS PROGGING AN MCV DEVELOPING ACROSS N IL. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
GFS MODEL AS WELL...KEEPING THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SUPPORT SOUTH AS
ISENTROPIC OMEGA VALUES REACH NEARLY 9 UBAR/S IN THE GFS.
SO...REDUCED THE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY AXIS REACHES S WI. KEPT LIKELY
POPS AS BETTER 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND 850-700 MB Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE CREEPS INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF A JANESVILLE TO
CROSS PLAINS TO LOGANVILLE LINE. GOOD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL WAA COMES IN. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH
2500+ J/KG ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING MUCAPE ONLY AOA 1000 J/KG.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GRADUAL BUILDING OF HEIGHTS WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS BLOWS UP ANOTHER ONE WITHIN THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS REGIME BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE ERRONEOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING A CLEANER BUILDUP OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING SHRA/PSBL TSRA PRIOR TO 18Z WITH
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE AND 850/925 BAROCLINICITY. THE 850
FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER NE WITH 925 TEMPS REALLY SOARING THOUGH THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS ONTO THIS BOUNDARY LONGER WHICH SHOWS A COOLER
REGIME THAN WHAT THE NAM/GFS IMPLIES. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES
BUILDING UP TO 3000 J/KG WITH INVERSION JUST UNDER 5K FEET. SOME
AREAS SEEING SIGNIFICANT CIN DEVELOPING. LIFT BECOMES LESS
DISCERNIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON NORTHWARD SHIFT OF WARM FRONT AND ANY
UPPER FORCING QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE PROGGD ERRONEOUS VORT
BULLSEYE ON THE GFS. WILL GO WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
SOME ONSHORE COOLING EFFECTS IN THE EAST.
.SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING AN MCS TO RIDE ALONG LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLY PLACED WITH LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AND MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW GREATEST WINDOW OF CONCERN BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH 12-18Z BEING MORE
PRIME. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE QUICKER SOLUTION. AIRMASS
WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PER SPC DISC FOR SWODY2
THE CONVECTION AFFECTING SRN WI WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO MORE OF A
WIND EVENT AS THESE STORMS RIDE IN NW-SE. CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON HOW BOUNDARIES LAY OUT AFTER THE
MORNING STORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW STILL CYCLONIC WITH 250 JET STILL
POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH DIVERGENCE STILL NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA. IF AIRMASS CAN RELOAD LOOKING AT CAPE BUILDUP WITH AFTERNOON
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN LOTS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW AIRMASS SETS UP AFTER THE MORNING ACTIVITY. ATTM SPC SWODY3
IS KEYING ON THIS BEING MORE ROBUST FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR CWA
PROBABLY MORE CO-LOCATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
ECMWF/NAM SHOW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WITH NE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN.
SO NEED TO RETAIN SOME POPS FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WHICH
INCLUDES THE NAM AS WELL. ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT WAVE
ARRIVINGDURING PRIME TIME AS WELL. HOPEFULLY FUTURE MODEL RUNS
WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH NE-E FLOW AND COOLER
AIRMASS.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH IN
PLACE THIS PERIOD AS NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HANGS OUT
IN THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP. GIVEN THE
DISPARITY WILL LEAN ON THE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -SHRA MOVE
INTO THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP IN TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AT THAT TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...JTS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME BIG CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF MONSOON MOISTURE. FOR THE
PAST 2 DAYS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS CONTAINED IN SOUTHEAST AZ WITH
THE DRY LINE WAVERING BETWEEN PHOENIX AND TUCSON. THIS MORNINGS
PHOENIX SOUNDING NOW SHOWS THE CENTRAL DESERTS IN THE MONSOON
SOUP...SO TO SPEAK. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12Z FRIDAY PHOENIX SOUNDING
SHOWED A PRECIP WATER (PW) VALUE OF 0.69 INCHES AND AN 800 MB
DEWPOINT OF 0 DEGREES C. IN CONTRAST...ITS NOW 1.35 INCHES OF PW
WITH AN 800 MB DEWPOINT OF 13 DEG C. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST AND NORTH THIS WEEKEND...COVERING THE ENTIRE
STATE BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...BOTH PHOENIX AND TUCSON SOUNDINGS SHOWED CONSIDERABLE
ML C.A.P.E.(500-1000 J/KG)...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS
(GLOBE 78 DEG F... TUCSON 89 F...AND HILLTOP AT 5700 FEET 70
F)...AND SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...BETTER IN SOUTHEAST
AZ. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST AZ FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OFFSHORE NORTHERN BAJA.
STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TENDS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A
BIT...BUT WORKING AGAINST STRONG AFTERNOON THERMODYNAMICS TODAY WITH
A EARLY START TO MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENTIAL
ENERGY HAS INCREASED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN PHOENIX AND CASA
GRANDE...WE STILL THINK STORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX. PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ON THE LOWER DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ALSO BECAUSE OF THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES...SOME
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 MAY BECOME ORGANIZED WITH
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED TODAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...511 AM MST...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA/WRN NV CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CONFINE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO FAR ERN AND SERN AZ...MAINLY AREAS EAST
OF PHOENIX. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WEST OF PHOENIX
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EAST. A COUPLE OF
INTERESTING THINGS TO NOTE...DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS SEEN IN THE
LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA...MOISTURE DID INCREASE IN THE PHOENIX AREA
DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY AND THE PHOENIX RAOB SHOWED PWAT UP TO 1.35
INCHES...WHICH WAS HIGHER THAN TUCSON WHICH REPORTED 1.21 INCHES.
ALSO...FRI EVENING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS HAD
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...A RISE OF MORE THAN 20 DEGREES
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SO...DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
VERY LAMINAR UPPER STREAMLINE FIELD AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...AROUND MIDNIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH VALLEY...NEAR NEW RIVER...AND THEY
MOVED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TROFFING TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW THE MAIN UPPER HIGH
TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS. STILL...THE MAIN HIGH CENTER REMAINS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF ARIZONA AND AS SUCH
STEERING FLOW REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH WE ARE STILL
EXPECTED CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AS
WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 28 ACROSS NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY.
ALL AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY SHOULD STAY GENLY CLEAR WITH POPS
LOW SINGLE DIGITS OR ZERO.
AS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT TROFFING TO OUR
NORTHWEST...OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE MAIN UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE
MINIMAL FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD EACH DAY AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX. WE ARE LOOKING AT A VERY LOW GRADE MONSOON FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HOTTER DESERTS REACHING NEAR 110 DEGREES.
DESPITE H5 HEIGHTS STAYING MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 591DM EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT STAYING AWAY FROM THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND REESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN
AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS IN A 10-15 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
511 AM MST SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA/WRN NV CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CONFINE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO FAR ERN AND SERN AZ...MAINLY AREAS EAST
OF PHOENIX. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WEST OF PHOENIX
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EAST. A COUPLE OF
INTERESTING THINGS TO NOTE...DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS SEEN IN THE
LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA...MOISTURE DID INCREASE IN THE PHOENIX AREA
DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY AND THE PHOENIX RAOB SHOWED PWAT UP TO 1.35
INCHES...WHICH WAS HIGHER THAN TUCSON WHICH REPORTED 1.21 INCHES.
ALSO...FRI EVENING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS HAD
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...A RISE OF MORE THAN 20 DEGREES
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SO...DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
VERY LAMINAR UPPER STREAMLINE FIELD AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...AROUND MIDNIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH VALLEY...NEAR NEW RIVER...AND THEY
MOVED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TROFFING TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW THE MAIN UPPER HIGH
TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS. STILL...THE MAIN HIGH CENTER REMAINS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF ARIZONA AND AS SUCH
STEERING FLOW REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH WE ARE STILL
EXPECTED CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AS
WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 28 ACROSS NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY.
ALL AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY SHOULD STAY GENLY CLEAR WITH POPS
LOW SINGLE DIGITS OR ZERO.
AS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT TROFFING TO OUR
NORTHWEST...OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE MAIN UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE
MINIMAL FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD EACH DAY AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX. WE ARE LOOKING AT A VERY LOW GRADE MONSOON FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HOTTER DESERTS REACHING NEAR 110 DEGREES.
DESPITE H5 HEIGHTS STAYING MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 591DM EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT STAYING AWAY FROM THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND REESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN
AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS IN A 10-15 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
759 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY PICKING UP IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
POWELL ON EDGE ON WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. ECMWF AND RUC SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS MINOR RIPPLE LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY WAVE LOOKS TO
SPIN UP AROUND NOON...WITH MORE ACTIVITY LIFTING ACROSS MESA
COUNTY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
ADJUST POPS TO FIT CURRENT SITUATION AND BOOSTED VALUES UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
FORECAST PWATS REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH TODAY WITH VALUES OF AN INCH
OR JUST ABOVE FAVORED IN THE RAP AND NAM WHILE GFS AND SREF PUT
VALUES BETWEEN .75 TO .9 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TX AND AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH.
NAM12 AND GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND NOON AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE JET STREAM IS LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF...UP THROUGH
LAS VEGAS AND CENTRAL UTAH WHICH WILL INCREASE ASCENT AND ALSO
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS ALWAYS HELPFUL IN CONVECTION. STRONGER
STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH VERY ISOLD
CONVECTION AFTER THAT.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS SUNDAY. THE NAM PAINTS AN
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS FAVORS THE SAN
JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH FOR MORE PRECIP. NOT SOLD ON NAM AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THOUGH LOWER...WILL STILL REMAIN AND THOUGH
THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE JET STREAM SHIFTS TO THE PLAIN
STATES...ENOUGH SUPPORT MAY ALLOW SOME RAIN TO FALL. WITH THAT IN
MIND...KEPT SCHC CONVECTION IN FORECAST FOR QUITE A BIT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A BIT MUCH BUT WE CAN TRIM THE FORECAST AS
NEWER MODELS COME IN.
TEMPS START TO RISE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MODELS ASSERT THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY
...EXPECT THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL CONTINUE AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST COAST. THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL FUEL MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MORE SUBTLE FEATURES NOT WELL HANDLED BY LARGE SCALE MODELS MAY
COME INTO PLAY.
MODELS POINT TO A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AT MIDWEEK AS ENERGY
EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENING THE RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD CUTTING OFF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL ERODE THE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING WITH GFS FASTER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
WITH GREATLY REDUCED MOIST CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK SO EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO CONTINUE. DRIER AIR TRANSLATES INTO GREATER SOLAR INSOLATION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
TREND UPWARD AS RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY...THOUGH
A WEAK DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM MAY GET A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTED OVER THE SAN JUAN/S PRIOR TO NOON. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG
WITH OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. CHANCES OF STORMS LOWERING CIGS
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS ARE LOW WITH OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING AIRPORT
OPERATIONS MORE LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1002 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND
REFINE SOME OF THE TRENDS. BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
SHOWING AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATTACHED WING
OF SHOWERS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING...BUT WILL BE
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CUMULUS IS CURRENTLY STARTING TO APPEAR ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
WHERE THERE IS SOME CLEARING...AND THIS IS LIKELY WHAT THE HRRR IS
PICKING UP ON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POP`S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WITH THE MCS...BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP THE SOUTHERN
AREAS ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IL TODAY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AS
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AS A RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY APPEARS TIMED FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
POTENTIAL GAP IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MID AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES AGAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS LATER ROUND OF STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG AS MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 00Z OVER
CENTRAL IL. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY AROUND 25 KTS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL...FOR WHICH SPC HAS A MARGINAL (5%) RISK IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. POPS TODAY GENERALLY RANGING FROM CHANCE TO
LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST
AREA...RANGING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO REFLECT
ABOVE REASONING. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO PREVALENT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MCS TO TRACK SE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL TONIGHT AND INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FOR 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SET UP JUST NE OF CENTRAL IL NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL HAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SE ALONG BOUNDARY BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT.
HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL WET GROUND HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT STILL HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F SUNDAY AND UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S MON. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO 95-100F SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 99-104F
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
105F.
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MCS TRACKING SE FROM UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPES OF 3-4K J/KG SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND 4-6K J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON.
00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
IL THROUGH MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO RIDE OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS) THAT WILL TRACK NEAR IL WHICH IS IN WNW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. A COLD FRONT TO TRACK SE THROUGH IL SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONTINUES CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
SOUTHEAST IL NEAR 90 AT TIMES WHILE LOWS CLOSE TO MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY WORSE HAZE AND FOG TO CONTINUE
UNTIL 13Z-14Z. LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION...AND HAVE INCORPORATED VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA TO REFLECT
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE FOR KPIA-KBMI-KSPI...USING HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS RELATIVELY ON TRACK WITH THE 11Z RUN. AFTER
THIS BAND...MODELS INDICATE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRACKING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH NORTHERN SITES KPIA-KBMI SO HAVE NOT BEEN
ABLE TO TIME A CLEAR BREAK IN ACTIVITY THERE. AT OTHER
SITES...INCORPORATED VCTS AND LOW VFR CEILINGS 20Z AND LATER AS
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AT THIS TIME. WINDS SE 3-6 KTS BECOMING SSE 6-10 KTS AFTER
14Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
702 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IL TODAY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AS
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AS A RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY APPEARS TIMED FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
POTENTIAL GAP IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MID AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES AGAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS LATER ROUND OF STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG AS MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 00Z OVER
CENTRAL IL. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY AROUND 25 KTS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL...FOR WHICH SPC HAS A MARGINAL (5%) RISK IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. POPS TODAY GENERALLY RANGING FROM CHANCE TO
LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST
AREA...RANGING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO REFLECT
ABOVE REASONING. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO PREVALENT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MCS TO TRACK SE ACORSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL TONIGHT AND INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FOR 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SET UP JUST NE OF CENTRAL IL NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL HAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SE ALONG BOUNDARY BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT.
HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL WET GROUND HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT STILL HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F SUNDAY AND UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S MON. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO 95-100F SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 99-104F MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH IS JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F.
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MCS TRACKING SE FROM UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPES OF 3-4K J/KG SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND 4-6K J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON.
00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
IL THROUGH MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO RIDE OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS) THAT WILL TRACK NEAR IL WHICH IS IN WNW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. A COLD FRONT TO TRACK SE THROUGH IL SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONTINUES CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
SOUTHEAST IL NEAR 90 AT TIMES WHILE LOWS CLOSE TO MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY WORSE HAZE AND FOG TO CONTINUE
UNTIL 13Z-14Z. LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION...AND HAVE INCORPORATED VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA TO REFLECT
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE FOR KPIA-KBMI-KSPI...USING HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS RELATIVELY ON TRACK WITH THE 11Z RUN. AFTER
THIS BAND...MODELS INDICATE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRACKING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH NORTHERN SITES KPIA-KBMI SO HAVE NOT BEEN
ABLE TO TIME A CLEAR BREAK IN ACTIVITY THERE. AT OTHER
SITES...INCORPORATED VCTS AND LOW VFR CEILINGS 20Z AND LATER AS
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AT THIS TIME. WINDS SE 3-6 KTS BECOMING SSE 6-10 KTS AFTER
14Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE DAY. AFTER THAT
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY HEAD
EAST...CAUSING VERY WARM HUMID AIR TO FLOW ACROSS OUR STATE.
EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE INDIANA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER FLOW
OF WARM HUMID AIR BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS NOW ALL BUT BURNED OFF ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH THE WELCOME SIGHT OF THE SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
SLOWLY EAST. 14Z TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AND WILL DIMINISH SUNSHINE UNFORTUNATELY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS QUITE A BIT MORE STABLE THAN AREAS
FURTHER WEST...SO EXPECTATION IS THAT ONGOING STORMS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE WABASH VALLEY AROUND
MIDDAY. HRRR AND NMM-WRF BOTH HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
THINKING AND WAS UTILIZED FOR POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL
INTRODUCE SCHC POPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WABASH VALLEY BY
17Z WITH A SLOW EASTWARD EXPANSION THEREAFTER.
STILL THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST AND OVERNIGHT FOR MOST. INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
RESIDING IN THE WABASH VALLEY BY LATE DAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN HOW CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP LATER ON OUT WEST WITH SOME HINTS
AT INITIATION ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AIDED BY THE JET. STILL ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO RIDE
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND REMNANT BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE LATER ON
TODAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AS FOR SOME TIME...PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
ALL MODELS HAVE THE CWA UNDER POSITIVE ADVECTION OF WET BULB
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. THIS IS LIABLE TO FIRE A CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REFLECT THIS FAIRLY WELL IN THEIR WET POPS.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOESNT LOOK QUITE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN AND A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. IT IS ENOUGH TO MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THINGS GET COMPLICATED. THERE IS A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF SUBTLE
FEATURES THAT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION. WITH THAT
UNCERTAINTY...CHANCE POPS SEEM BEST MOST OF THE TIME.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POPS THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
TEMPERATURES. ON AVERAGE...A CONSENSUS FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO IN
SUCH SITUATIONS...SO AN CONSENSUS OF THE MAV AND MET WILL BE USED.
AN EXCEPTION WILL BE MADE TUESDAY. SLIGHT CUTS WILL BE MADE.
ITS HARD TO SEE MANY PLACES HITTING 90 GIVEN THE GROUND SHOULD
BE QUITE WET.
AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR
TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY
MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL U.S. BROADENS AND FLATTENS OUT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH MAIN FLOW. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF THESE PERTURBATIONS...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INITIALIZATION RESPONSE OF INCLUDING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID STILL EXPECT DRY TIMES DURING
THE LONG TERM...JUST UNABLE TO PIN THEM DOWN AT THIS POINT.
INITIALIZATION KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 80S
AND SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS...ALTHOUGH NOT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THESE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TO DECREASE
THEM WHEN IT DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 111200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
FOG AND LOW/OBSCURED CEILINGS SHOULD BURN OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
OF ISSUANCE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE DAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL WON/T BE ARRIVING UNTIL LATE.
THUS PUSHED BACK ONSET OF VCTS BACK TO AROUND 3Z OR SO IN THE WEST
AT KHUF AND OVERSPREAD THE OTHER SITES FROM THERE. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS INDICATE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RISING MOTION TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING SO ONCE VCTS STARTS WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR THE
DURATION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1047 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT A FEW TENTHS BELOW
THAT OF YESTERDAY MORNING. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. RADAR JUST NOW DEPICTING A FEW PINPOINT
SHOWERS INLAND. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH LOW END POPS. NO UPDATE
COMING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
AVIATION...RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE MID LEVELS INTO THE UPPER
LEVELS. ALTHOUGH HRRR IS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL OPT TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED FROM ALL THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
VFR.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A S TO
SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING A FEW NOCTURNAL SHRA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PARISHES/COUNTIES AND DISSIPATING.
LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT AND FOCUS WILL LIMITED CONVECTION TO ISO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE ONGOING 20% STILL LOOKING
GOOD FOR THE FORECAST. LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY A BIT TOWARDS MON-WED...LIMITING CONVECTION
EVEN MORE...BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO BUMP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
MODEL BLEND ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOWARDS
FRI...WITH 20% EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...MOST NOTABLE FOR LOWS.
DML
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 94 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 10
LCH 91 77 92 77 / 20 10 10 10
LFT 92 75 93 76 / 20 10 10 10
BPT 91 77 92 76 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
650 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.AVIATION...RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE MID LEVELS INTO THE UPPER
LEVELS. ALTHOUGH HRRR IS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL OPT TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED FROM ALL THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
VFR.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A S TO
SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING A FEW NOCTURNAL SHRA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PARISHES/COUNTIES AND DISSIPATING.
LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT AND FOCUS WILL LIMITED CONVECTION TO ISO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE ONGOING 20% STILL LOOKING
GOOD FOR THE FORECAST. LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY A BIT TOWARDS MON-WED...LIMITING CONVECTION
EVEN MORE...BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO BUMP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
MODEL BLEND ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOWARDS
FRI...WITH 20% EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...MOST NOTABLE FOR LOWS.
DML
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 94 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 10
LCH 91 77 92 77 / 20 10 10 10
LFT 92 75 93 76 / 20 10 10 10
BPT 91 77 92 76 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1018 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ANOTHER IDEAL MORNING IN NORTHERN MI. SKIES ARE JUST ABOUT
CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH-BASED CU IN THE GD TRAV BAY REGION...AND
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
WARM FRONT ADVANCING EAST NEAR MUNISING/ISQ...AND IS OCCURRING IN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE TOP OF YESTERDAYS MIXED LAYER. THERE
IS STRONG INVERSION PRESENT ABOVE THIS. PER 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...700MB TEMPS ARE 9C AT APX...10C AT GRB. THIS IS NOT
SURPRISING...GIVEN A 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DEAD
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SO IT WILL TAKE SOME SERIOUS WORK TO OVERCOME THIS CAP. THE
06Z/12Z NAM RUNS BOTH MANAGE TO DO SO...POPPING A STORM IN NE
LOWER BY EARLY EVENING. IT MANAGES THIS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED (NE MONTMORENCY)...WHERE THE TWO DIFFERENT ORIENTATIONS
OF THE LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE INTERSECT AND MEET THE BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC SW WIND. AN 84/60 SURFACE PARCEL SURFACE PARCEL GENERATES
ABOUT 800J/KG OF SBCAPE (AND DOES GET PAST THE CAP)...BUT MLCAPE
IS STILL NEGLIGIBLE. AM A TOUCH MORE NERVOUS ABOUT A DRY FORECAST
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT STILL BELIEVE DRY IS THE
WAY TO GO. (NOTE THE SPC HRRR KEEPS US DRY.)
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS CU FIELD WILL BUBBLE UP AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDDAY...IN PARTICULAR NE LOWER AND NW CHIPPEWA CO.
THAT WILL CERTAINLY NOT PREVENT A WARM AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
FROM NEAR 80F TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
...TURNING UP THE HEAT JUST A LITTLE MORE...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
OVERVIEW: SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SRN GULF STATES...DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HEAT/HUMIDITY IS STREAMING
FROM MEXICO UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES THEN BACK INTO THE PAC NW...WHERE SEVERAL SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE ONGOING. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES ALONG SOME SEMBLANCE OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THAT
REGION. BUT ONCE AGAIN A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.
PATTERN FORECAST: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
WESTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS BY SUNDAY...AND RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING UP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT THIS DOES SHIFT AXIS OF
HEAT/HUMIDITY INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND SETS UP A PROVERBIAL
"RING OF FIRE" AND POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES TO IMPACT THE REGION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORTER TERM IS WHETHER OR NOT NRN MICHIGAN CAN "CATCH" ANY PRECIP
FROM ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS. SHORT ANSWER IS...PROBABLY NOT.
TODAY...NO WORRIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
PLAYER. TAKE YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS AND TAG ON ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
AS WARMER AIR INCHES IT/S WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EDGING H8 TEMPS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN INTO THE 15C TO
16C RANGE BY EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. BUT PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST (AND AS
SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z NAM BUT WHICH AGAIN IS OVERDOING SFC
DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY). BUT LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL NOT BE ADDING
ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DWINDLE AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO OVER TEXAS...FORCING HEAT/MOISTURE
AXIS TOWARD THE MIDWEST. NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY OF THAT CAN SNEAK
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN SHORT ANSWER IS PROBABLY NOT. ALL
GUIDANCE KEEPS AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHICH IS WHERE CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
RESIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DECENT SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO DRAG SOMETHING THIS FAR NORTH...I JUST DON/T SEE IT.
HENCE HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY.
(7/12)SUNDAY...THE FORECAST WAS TOUGH TO DETERMINE AS THE TWO MODELS
WERE AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING. HOWEVER, FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A
ROW, THE ECMWF HAS MANAGED TO PLAY CATCH UP TO THE GFS IDEA. SO HAVE
STARTED TO LEAN MORE TO THE GFS IDEAS WITH THE CONVECTION. LOOKING
AT THE SFC BASED CAPES OVER THE REGION THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HAVE AROUND 1000J/KG ON ONE MODEL AND NEARLY 2000J/KG ON
THE OTHER. COUPLED WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPING SFC
WAVE, WILL PUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION AS IT LOOKS
TO BE SCATTERED. OVERNIGHT DOESN`T LOOK AT GOOD, BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL AS THE INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS OKAY. THE ONE DOWNSIDE TO
ALL OF THIS CONVECTION IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
RAW MODELS, SO THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE A FIGMENT OF THE MODELS
IMAGINATION.
(7/13)MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POPS TO A MINIMUM AS THE
DEWPOINTS ON THE MODELS ENDS UP IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS IS RARELY THE
CASE IN N MICHIGAN. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER, IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS
OUT, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON THE LOWER CHANCE SIDE.
THIS FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WET, BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
FOR THE YEAR SO FAR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOONER THAN THE ECMWF (TUESDAY NIGHT).
HOWEVER, THE BASIC IDEA IS THE SAME, WITH THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EVERY OTHER DAY OR TWO. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH JUST A
GRADUAL ARRIVAL AND LOWERING OF THICKER CIRRUS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY IMPACTING THE APN
TERMINAL SITE.
WINDS...LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING THEN TURNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...THOUGH INFLUENCED BY LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AROUND KAPN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
OVERALL LARGE SCALE SW-S FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS CLOSER TO SHORE WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION. A
SIMILAR STORY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE
JUST A BIT MORE HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK THERMAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND HOP/WRF KEEP THE CONVECTION VERY
SPOTTY AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW
AND ENHANCE AS DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS CAPPING FROM INCREASINGLY WARM AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA. BY LATE
IN THE DAY THIS ACTIVITY...IF THERE IS ANY LEFT...SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME MINIMAL NEW
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...STRONG WARMING OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA MAY INCLUDE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE GETS CLOSER. THIS IDEA WAS
DEEMED REASONABLE IN THE EARLIER FORECAST AND STILL LOOKS SO...BUT
AGAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE.
THE SURGE OF WARMING AND HEATING SHOULD TAKE TEMPERATURES UP TO THE
90S WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID 80S EAST. LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL
BE PREVALENT IN AREAS EAST THIS MORNING SHOULD HEAT OUT AND
GENERALLY DECREASE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF STORMS FAR EAST WITH THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE A WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES WITHING A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HEAT AT THE FOREFRONT OF MID RANGE CONCERNS. CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TRAPPING NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE QUITE EFFECTIVELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN THIS EVENING WILL
ACT TO MODIFY ENVIRONMENT TO SOME DEGREE...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REINFORCE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EASTWARD.
EVENTUALLY...APPEARS AS IF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY OR A BIT EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND OTHER
THAN A BUFFER OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS...
MIXING WILL BE QUITE CHALLENGED BY THE STRONG INVERSION. AS A
RESULT...WILL PROBABLY NOT GET QUITE AS TOASTY FROM AROUND I29
EASTWARD...BUT STILL PLENTY WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE AREAS
WEST OF THE TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO FIND A FEW SPOTS REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK...AS DEWPOINTS MIX GREATLY INTO THE 50S. EVEN WITH THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...DEWPOINTS WILL SOAR WELL
INTO THE 70S...AND WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF 100 TO 105 DEGREE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX. JAMES VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE WORST
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE START TO SEE MIXING LOWERING THE MOISTURE
CONTENT. WITH THE LONG PERIOD SINCE LAST EXTREME HEAT AND THE
NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON THE WEEKEND...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
HEAT ADVISORY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY.
NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND A ROGUE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM TO
START THE DAY...BUT SUCH A LOW CHANCE THAT HAVE KEPT CLEAR OF THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND START TO ERODE SOME
OF THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT. REALLY HARD TO PICTURE THERE BEING ENOUGH
LIFT TO BREAK RESIDUAL INVERSION EVEN AFTER FULL HEATING...WITH
CIN LIKELY IN THE 50-150 J/KG RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE
CHANCE THERE COULD BE A GOLDILOCKS LOCATION WHERE THE WEAKENING
CAP AND FORCING ARE JUST RIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT WORTH
CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THREAT. HOWEVER...KEEP
AWARE...AS THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO MAKE
FOR A STRONGER STORM. PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR THINGS TO
COME TOGETHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
FORCING DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUICKLY
CLOSING WINDOW AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES QUICKLY PAST AND DEEPER
DRYING ON WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND ALLOW THE SURFACE TO RECOVER QUITE
A BIT IN THOSE FULLY MIXED AREAS...AND RETAIN SOME UPPER 60S
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ON MONDAY...AS SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...THE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELAXED SOMEWHAT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHEST READINGS EAST OF I 29 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
DEEPER MIXING SHOULD TAKE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WEST TO LOWER TO
MID 60S EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES. THE HEAT INDEX WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S. WILL HAVE TO
SEE IF WE GET ANOTHER INCREASE IN SMOKE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS COULD IMPACT TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WOULD SEEMINGLY BE A
BIT MORE ACTIVE IN GENERAL...WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BREACHED PERIODICALLY WITH SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COMMON FEATURE IN MODELS IS WAVE AROUND
WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FROM NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION IN
ECMWF COULD KEEP A BETTER BACKDOOR BOUNDARY AROUND MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WAVE HAS PROXIMITY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...BUT
DRASTICALLY DIFFERING TIMING IN GREATER ENSEMBLE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
SURFACE REFLECTION. WATCHING FOR ANOTHER EASTWARD SURGE IN WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...WHICH COULD BE ON THE WAY FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UNTIL 11/16Z FREQUENT CEILINGS 1-3K FT AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM/BR
WITH LOCAL CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET. AFTER 12/16Z VFR. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA UNTIL 12/03Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
053>056-059>062-065>071.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
622 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITH ANOTHER OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE TREND IN THE 11.00Z MODELS AND
11.03Z RAP IS FOR THE WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO FLATTEN
OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TOP PART OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH WITH A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF IT REACHING ABOUT THE IOWA/MISSOURI
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS
WELL. THE MESO MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS AS WELL
WITH THE 11.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND NMM KEEPING THE AREA
DRY WHILE THE 11.00Z NAM12 AND 11.05Z HRRR STILL TRY TO BRING THE
REMAINS OF SOME DEVELOPING CENTRAL IOWA CONVECTION INTO THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR THIS MORNING. BASED ON ALL THESE
SOLUTIONS...HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN FOR TODAY WITH
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH TO AT MOST A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AS IT COULD END
UP BEING TOTALLY DRY NORTH OF THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE BIT OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TAKING ON A MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE NAM REALLY
RAMPS UP THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY AND BREAKS OUT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 11.00Z GFS SOMEWHAT HINTS AT THIS AS WELL WHILE THE
11.00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE HI-RES NMM IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHILE
THE HI-RES ARW IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT
THE NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT AND WILL
ONLY CARRY A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE REAL ACTION AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY COME SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER OREGON AND NEVADA. THIS WAVE SHOULD TOP
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT COMES ACROSS.
THIS LIFT SHOULD BE AIDED BY SOME JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE 300 MB JET AS THIS COMES IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTH EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO ILLINOIS WITH THE GFS SHOWING WEAK
TO MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER NORTH OF THE
FRONT. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SHOULD FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS
TO WORK WITH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS UP TO
2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE SUNDAY EVENING ONLY DROPPING OFF TO 1500 J/KG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UP TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR SHOULD MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THIS BEING PRIMARILY IN THE
0-3 KM LAYER. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NOCTURNAL
MCS TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SEVERE WIND THREAT. HAIL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF THREAT WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON THE ORDER
OF 3.5 TO 4 KM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL RATES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE FLATTENING OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW AND COME ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF A
WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS HANDLED. THE GFS OPENS THIS SYSTEM UP AND BRINGS IT
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AS
A CLOSED LOW HOLDING IT BACK WITH RIDGING OVER THE REGION. WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A GENERALLY VFR PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
DOES LOOK TO SPREAD 3500-4500 FT BKN CIGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THESE CLOUDS/MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME DRYING OF THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN TONIGHT...WITH MORE SCT CUMULUS/STRATO-
CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 01-02Z. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AT THE TAF SITES
MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. GIVEN EXPECTED WIDELY
SCT TO SCT COVERAGE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AND
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY PERIODS WHEN SHRA/TSRA WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LEAVING VCSH/VCTS
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF DETAILS BECOME CLEARER ON SHRA/TSRA
OCCURRENCE NEAR/AT KLSE/KRST LATER CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO MENTION OF
SUCH TO THE TAFS AS NEEDED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
143 PM MST SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
ARIZONA...GENERALLY EAST OF PHOENIX.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 840 AM MST 11 JULY/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME BIG CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF MONSOON MOISTURE. FOR THE
PAST 2 DAYS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS CONTAINED IN SOUTHEAST AZ WITH
THE DRY LINE WAVERING BETWEEN PHOENIX AND TUCSON. THIS MORNINGS
PHOENIX SOUNDING NOW SHOWS THE CENTRAL DESERTS IN THE MONSOON
SOUP...SO TO SPEAK. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12Z FRIDAY PHOENIX SOUNDING
SHOWED A PRECIP WATER (PW) VALUE OF 0.69 INCHES AND AN 800 MB
DEWPOINT OF 0 DEGREES C. IN CONTRAST...ITS NOW 1.35 INCHES OF PW
WITH AN 800 MB DEWPOINT OF 13 DEG C. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST AND NORTH THIS WEEKEND...COVERING THE ENTIRE
STATE BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...BOTH PHOENIX AND TUCSON SOUNDINGS SHOWED CONSIDERABLE
ML C.A.P.E.(500-1000 J/KG)...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS
(GLOBE 78 DEG F... TUCSON 89 F...AND HILLTOP AT 5700 FEET 70
F)...AND SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...BETTER IN SOUTHEAST
AZ. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST AZ FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OFFSHORE NORTHERN BAJA.
STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TENDS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A
BIT...BUT WORKING AGAINST STRONG AFTERNOON THERMODYNAMICS TODAY WITH
A EARLY START TO MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENTIAL
ENERGY HAS INCREASED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN PHOENIX AND CASA
GRANDE...WE STILL THINK STORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX. PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ON THE LOWER DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ALSO BECAUSE OF THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES...SOME
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 MAY BECOME ORGANIZED WITH
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED TODAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...511 AM MST...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA/WRN NV CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CONFINE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO FAR ERN AND SERN AZ...MAINLY AREAS EAST
OF PHOENIX. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WEST OF PHOENIX
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EAST. A COUPLE OF
INTERESTING THINGS TO NOTE...DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS SEEN IN THE
LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA...MOISTURE DID INCREASE IN THE PHOENIX AREA
DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY AND THE PHOENIX RAOB SHOWED PWAT UP TO 1.35
INCHES...WHICH WAS HIGHER THAN TUCSON WHICH REPORTED 1.21 INCHES.
ALSO...FRI EVENING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS HAD
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...A RISE OF MORE THAN 20 DEGREES
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SO...DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
VERY LAMINAR UPPER STREAMLINE FIELD AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...AROUND MIDNIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH VALLEY...NEAR NEW RIVER...AND THEY
MOVED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TROFFING TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW THE MAIN UPPER HIGH
TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS. STILL...THE MAIN HIGH CENTER REMAINS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF ARIZONA AND AS SUCH
STEERING FLOW REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH WE ARE STILL
EXPECTED CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AS
WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 28 ACROSS NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY.
ALL AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY SHOULD STAY GENLY CLEAR WITH POPS
LOW SINGLE DIGITS OR ZERO.
AS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT TROFFING TO OUR
NORTHWEST...OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE MAIN UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE
MINIMAL FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD EACH DAY AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX. WE ARE LOOKING AT A VERY LOW GRADE MONSOON FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HOTTER DESERTS REACHING NEAR 110 DEGREES.
DESPITE H5 HEIGHTS STAYING MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 591DM EACH DAY...THE
DRIER AIR AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE
PHOENIX AREA AIR FIELDS. EXPECTING A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 20 KT. INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND REESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND LIKELY SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN A 10-15 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND MOSTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
230 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND AVERAGE BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS DOWN TO THE SIERRA CREST OF MONO COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR AND NAM ARE FAVORING SOME CHANCES OF A
THUNDERSTORM AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A 15% COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE, ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN PERSHING COUNTY. THEN, DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY ONWARD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVER-CONVECTING MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN MONO COUNTY, BUT MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM; KEPT
CHANCES AROUND 10%. THE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ONLY
BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA BY MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. BOYD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE
PATTERN IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TO START THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA
VALLEYS NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH ALPINE AND
MONO COUNTIES EACH DAY WITH MAINLY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT WILL
KEEP CHANCES BELOW 15% FOR THESE AREAS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP MENTION
OF STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY STILL IS
SIZABLE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC ATTEMPT A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WHICH LEAVES THE SIERRA IN MORE OF A TROUGH PATTERN TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND IN THE GFS WHILE THE EC DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS IS
ALMOST THE REVERSE OF WHAT EACH MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE LAST FEW CYCLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ENSEMBLES SPREADS ARE
LARGE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z MAINLY FOR AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF KNFL, BUT OVERALL AVIATION-RELATED IMPACTS
WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. FOR SUNDAY, ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A FALLON-SUSANVILLE LINE BUT THE MAIN
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS
20- 25 KT ARE PROBABLE, MAINLY BTWN 21Z-04Z. TF
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. ELSEWHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
WARMING AND DRYING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AS THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAD FORECAST...MIDDAY SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING NOT ONLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA BUT ALSO OVER THE DIABLO RANGE NEAR THE JUNCTION OF SAN
BENITO...MONTEREY AND FRESNO COUNTIES AND OVER /AND SOUTH OF/ THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS NEAR FRAZIER PARK. AS OF 20Z /1300 PDT/ NO
LIGHTNING HAD BEEN DETECTED IN THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA
BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTED THAT CONVECTION MIGHT NOT BEGIN BEFORE 22Z
/1500 PDT/.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BUILD AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WESTWARD...LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY
WHEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 100. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER CONCERNING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE FORECAST HAS LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE MODELS SLOWLY LIFT THE SYSTEM...
WHICH WOULD BE NAMED DOLORES IF IT REACHES TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH... NORTHWEST WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
THAN THE GFS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM WEST OF THE
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...AND THE EXTENDED GFS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...COULD SEE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO INTERIOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN SINGLE DIGITS
NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 AND IN THE VICINITY OF FRAZIER PARK EARLY THIS
EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL 06Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-11 110:1961 82:1888 78:2002 52:1974
KFAT 07-12 109:2012 82:1995 81:1999 54:1965
KFAT 07-13 110:1983 84:1932 83:1999 55:1903
KBFL 07-11 110:1961 83:1936 79:2002 51:1906
KBFL 07-12 113:1913 81:1995 80:1999 48:1914
KBFL 07-13 111:1908 87:1995 85:1999 46:1914
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
958 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINSAND
TO THE DIABLO RANGE NEAR COALINGA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION WITH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SIERRA
WILL CONTINUE. BY SATURDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL
BRINGING A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING/S HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/WRF-NMM/HRRR AND
NAM-12...ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE SAN
EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS NEAR FRAZIER PARK...AND OVER THE DIABLO RANGE
WEST OF COALINGA...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HRRR RADAR
FORECAST INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
22Z /1500 PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z SUNDAY /1900 PDT THIS
EVENING/. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROKE OUT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND WITH THE WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE REGION, THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL AS HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW FOR MID JULY. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE OVER
THE SIERRA GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST WHILE A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK
OF KEEPING A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS ALLOW
FOR A SLOW RETURN TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR JULY.
BY LATER IN THE WEEK MODELS BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF A
RIDGE OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EAST PACIFIC AND TRANSITORY
TROUGHS WORKING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS PATTERN WILL
NOT ALLOW THE MONSOON TO KICK BACK IN, THUS THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LCL MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SIERRA NEVADA CREST BETWEEN
20Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-11 110:1961 82:1888 78:2002 52:1974
KFAT 07-12 109:2012 82:1995 81:1999 54:1965
KFAT 07-13 110:1983 84:1932 83:1999 55:1903
KBFL 07-11 110:1961 83:1936 79:2002 51:1906
KBFL 07-12 113:1913 81:1995 80:1999 48:1914
KBFL 07-13 111:1908 87:1995 85:1999 46:1914
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
248 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AN UPR HIGH CENTER IS OVR ERN TX TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD OVR TX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MSTR OVR THE
AREA TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVR AND
NR THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TIED TO THE HIGHER TRRN...
INCLUDING THE PALMER DVD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE OUT OVR THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND OVR BACA AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE MSTR WL STILL BE LIMITED AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
MONDAY...DURING THE DAY THE NORTHWEST US TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EDGE EAST...AND MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE HAVE LOW END SCATTERED TO ISOLATED POPS GOING AND THAT
SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE CWA...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S
PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 50S TO 70S MOUNTAINS.
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED SOUTH SOME...AND
THE MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SUBTROPICS WILL STILL BE OVER THE CWA.
SO...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO MONDAYS READINGS.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH BUT IT SHOULD BE CENTERED FAR TO OUR NORTH. STILL...ANOTHER
SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME FORCING ALOFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
SOME TO THE WEST...AND THE ROCKIES WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW AND A
LITTLE MORE SETTLED WEATHER. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY.
OF COURSE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
IMPACT BURN SCARS...SO THAT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
VCNTY OF KCOS OR KALS THIS EVENING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON KALS COULD SEE
A TSTM IN THE VCNTY BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY PICKING UP IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
POWELL ON EDGE ON WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. ECMWF AND RUC SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS MINOR RIPPLE LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY WAVE LOOKS TO
SPIN UP AROUND NOON...WITH MORE ACTIVITY LIFTING ACROSS MESA
COUNTY AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
ADJUST POPS TO FIT CURRENT SITUATION AND BOOSTED VALUES UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
FORECAST PWATS REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH TODAY WITH VALUES OF AN INCH
OR JUST ABOVE FAVORED IN THE RAP AND NAM WHILE GFS AND SREF PUT
VALUES BETWEEN .75 TO .9 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TX AND AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH.
NAM12 AND GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND NOON AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE JET STREAM IS LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF...UP THROUGH
LAS VEGAS AND CENTRAL UTAH WHICH WILL INCREASE ASCENT AND ALSO
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS ALWAYS HELPFUL IN CONVECTION. STRONGER
STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN ALL WEEK. SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH VERY ISOLD
CONVECTION AFTER THAT.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS SUNDAY. THE NAM PAINTS AN
ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS FAVORS THE SAN
JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH FOR MORE PRECIP. NOT SOLD ON NAM AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THOUGH LOWER...WILL STILL REMAIN AND THOUGH
THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE JET STREAM SHIFTS TO THE PLAIN
STATES...ENOUGH SUPPORT MAY ALLOW SOME RAIN TO FALL. WITH THAT IN
MIND...KEPT SCHC CONVECTION IN FORECAST FOR QUITE A BIT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A BIT MUCH BUT WE CAN TRIM THE FORECAST AS
NEWER MODELS COME IN.
TEMPS START TO RISE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MODELS ASSERT THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY
...EXPECT THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL CONTINUE AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST COAST. THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL FUEL MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS. NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MORE SUBTLE FEATURES NOT WELL HANDLED BY LARGE SCALE MODELS MAY
COME INTO PLAY.
MODELS POINT TO A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AT MIDWEEK AS ENERGY
EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENING THE RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD CUTTING OFF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL ERODE THE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING WITH GFS FASTER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
WITH GREATLY REDUCED MOIST CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK SO EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES
TO CONTINUE. DRIER AIR TRANSLATES INTO GREATER SOLAR INSOLATION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
TREND UPWARD AS RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 02Z. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 KTS...SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FAST MOVING STORMS. EXPECT
ILS CIGS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOUNTAIN TOPS
BECOMING OBSCURED. AWAY FROM SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
340 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY
02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH
THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE
ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD
TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE
RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH
TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSST THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE FOR THIS
FORECAST. LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING FROM NEAR
KUIN-KGBG MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUSED SOME TEMPO
PERIODS FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF`S FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
LINE ITSELF. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION BEFORE MORE FORMS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN NARROWING DOWN A SPECIFIC
TIME FRAME YET...SO WILL KEEP MENTION AS VCTS FOR NOW. HAVE
INDICATED SOME DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047-048.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND
REFINE SOME OF THE TRENDS. BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO
SHOWING AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATTACHED WING
OF SHOWERS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING...BUT WILL BE
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CUMULUS IS CURRENTLY STARTING TO APPEAR ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
WHERE THERE IS SOME CLEARING...AND THIS IS LIKELY WHAT THE HRRR IS
PICKING UP ON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POP`S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA WITH THE MCS...BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP THE SOUTHERN
AREAS ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IL TODAY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AS
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AS A RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY APPEARS TIMED FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
POTENTIAL GAP IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MID AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES AGAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS LATER ROUND OF STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG AS MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 00Z OVER
CENTRAL IL. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY AROUND 25 KTS.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL...FOR WHICH SPC HAS A MARGINAL (5%) RISK IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. POPS TODAY GENERALLY RANGING FROM CHANCE TO
LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST
AREA...RANGING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO REFLECT
ABOVE REASONING. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES TO THE LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO PREVALENT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MCS TO TRACK SE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL TONIGHT AND INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FOR 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SET UP JUST NE OF CENTRAL IL NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL HAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SE ALONG BOUNDARY BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT.
HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL WET GROUND HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT STILL HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F SUNDAY AND UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S MON. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO 95-100F SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 99-104F
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
105F.
SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MCS TRACKING SE FROM UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPES OF 3-4K J/KG SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND 4-6K J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON.
00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
IL THROUGH MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO RIDE OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS) THAT WILL TRACK NEAR IL WHICH IS IN WNW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. A COLD FRONT TO TRACK SE THROUGH IL SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONTINUES CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
SOUTHEAST IL NEAR 90 AT TIMES WHILE LOWS CLOSE TO MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE FOR THIS
FORECAST. LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING FROM NEAR
KUIN-KGBG MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUSED SOME TEMPO
PERIODS FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF`S FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
LINE ITSELF. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION BEFORE MORE FORMS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN NARROWING DOWN A SPECIFIC
TIME FRAME YET...SO WILL KEEP MENTION AS VCTS FOR NOW. HAVE
INDICATED SOME DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE DAY. AFTER THAT
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY HEAD
EAST...CAUSING VERY WARM HUMID AIR TO FLOW ACROSS OUR STATE.
EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE INDIANA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER FLOW
OF WARM HUMID AIR BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS NOW ALL BUT BURNED OFF ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH THE WELCOME SIGHT OF THE SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
SLOWLY EAST. 14Z TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AND WILL DIMINISH SUNSHINE UNFORTUNATELY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS QUITE A BIT MORE STABLE THAN AREAS
FURTHER WEST...SO EXPECTATION IS THAT ONGOING STORMS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE WABASH VALLEY AROUND
MIDDAY. HRRR AND NMM-WRF BOTH HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
THINKING AND WAS UTILIZED FOR POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL
INTRODUCE SCHC POPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WABASH VALLEY BY
17Z WITH A SLOW EASTWARD EXPANSION THEREAFTER.
STILL THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST AND OVERNIGHT FOR MOST. INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
RESIDING IN THE WABASH VALLEY BY LATE DAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN HOW CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP LATER ON OUT WEST WITH SOME HINTS
AT INITIATION ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AIDED BY THE JET. STILL ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO RIDE
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND REMNANT BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE LATER ON
TODAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AS FOR SOME TIME...PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
ALL MODELS HAVE THE CWA UNDER POSITIVE ADVECTION OF WET BULB
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. THIS IS LIABLE TO FIRE A CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REFLECT THIS FAIRLY WELL IN THEIR WET POPS.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOESNT LOOK QUITE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN AND A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. IT IS ENOUGH TO MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THINGS GET COMPLICATED. THERE IS A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF SUBTLE
FEATURES THAT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION. WITH THAT
UNCERTAINTY...CHANCE POPS SEEM BEST MOST OF THE TIME.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POPS THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
TEMPERATURES. ON AVERAGE...A CONSENSUS FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO IN
SUCH SITUATIONS...SO AN CONSENSUS OF THE MAV AND MET WILL BE USED.
AN EXCEPTION WILL BE MADE TUESDAY. SLIGHT CUTS WILL BE MADE.
ITS HARD TO SEE MANY PLACES HITTING 90 GIVEN THE GROUND SHOULD
BE QUITE WET.
AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR
TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY
MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
STOP ME IF YOUVE HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE...STORMS WILL BE A THREAT
EACH PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL US LOOKS TO KEEP STORM TRACK NORTH AND
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL RIDGE RIDING STORM SYSTEMS TO
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIODS...BUT STORM CHANCES WILL BE REQUIRED
EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES BUT WITH VERY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING...CAN SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM
CONSENSUS NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT A QUIET AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS MAY GET INTO THE SITES EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL MOVE SHOWER/VCTS MENTION UP A FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ONCE IT IS IN WILL KEEP IT IN FOR THE DURATION.
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES WHEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACT THE SITES BUT THESE IMPACTS ARE FAR TOO UNCERTAIN FOR MENTION
AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE DAY. AFTER THAT
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY HEAD
EAST...CAUSING VERY WARM HUMID AIR TO FLOW ACROSS OUR STATE.
EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE INDIANA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER FLOW
OF WARM HUMID AIR BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS NOW ALL BUT BURNED OFF ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH THE WELCOME SIGHT OF THE SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
SLOWLY EAST. 14Z TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AND WILL DIMINISH SUNSHINE UNFORTUNATELY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS QUITE A BIT MORE STABLE THAN AREAS
FURTHER WEST...SO EXPECTATION IS THAT ONGOING STORMS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE WABASH VALLEY AROUND
MIDDAY. HRRR AND NMM-WRF BOTH HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
THINKING AND WAS UTILIZED FOR POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL
INTRODUCE SCHC POPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WABASH VALLEY BY
17Z WITH A SLOW EASTWARD EXPANSION THEREAFTER.
STILL THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST AND OVERNIGHT FOR MOST. INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
RESIDING IN THE WABASH VALLEY BY LATE DAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN HOW CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP LATER ON OUT WEST WITH SOME HINTS
AT INITIATION ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AIDED BY THE JET. STILL ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO RIDE
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND REMNANT BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE LATER ON
TODAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AS FOR SOME TIME...PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
ALL MODELS HAVE THE CWA UNDER POSITIVE ADVECTION OF WET BULB
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. THIS IS LIABLE TO FIRE A CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REFLECT THIS FAIRLY WELL IN THEIR WET POPS.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOESNT LOOK QUITE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN AND A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. IT IS ENOUGH TO MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THINGS GET COMPLICATED. THERE IS A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF SUBTLE
FEATURES THAT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION. WITH THAT
UNCERTAINTY...CHANCE POPS SEEM BEST MOST OF THE TIME.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POPS THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
TEMPERATURES. ON AVERAGE...A CONSENSUS FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO IN
SUCH SITUATIONS...SO AN CONSENSUS OF THE MAV AND MET WILL BE USED.
AN EXCEPTION WILL BE MADE TUESDAY. SLIGHT CUTS WILL BE MADE.
ITS HARD TO SEE MANY PLACES HITTING 90 GIVEN THE GROUND SHOULD
BE QUITE WET.
AN INTERESTING FEATURE ON MONDAY IS THE FORECAST CAPES NOT TOO FAR
TO OUR WEST. THEY ARE LITERALLY THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN. MONDAY
MAY BE AN EXCITING DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL U.S. BROADENS AND FLATTENS OUT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH MAIN FLOW. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF THESE PERTURBATIONS...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INITIALIZATION RESPONSE OF INCLUDING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. THAT SAID STILL EXPECT DRY TIMES DURING
THE LONG TERM...JUST UNABLE TO PIN THEM DOWN AT THIS POINT.
INITIALIZATION KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 80S
AND SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS...ALTHOUGH NOT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THESE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TO DECREASE
THEM WHEN IT DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 11/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT A QUIET AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS MAY GET INTO THE SITES EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL MOVE SHOWER/VCTS MENTION UP A FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ONCE IT IS IN WILL KEEP IT IN FOR THE DURATION.
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES WHEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACT THE SITES BUT THESE IMPACTS ARE FAR TOO UNCERTAIN FOR MENTION
AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
ARLATX REGION. MEANWHILE THERE WERE SEVERAL WAVES OVER THE WEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE WAVES MOVING ON SHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK VORT
MAX OVER THE TX PANHANDLE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE,
A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR PHILLIPSBURG KS TO NORTH OF
HEBRON AND INTO NORTHERN MO.
FOR THIS EVENING, THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. THERE CERTAINLY IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FOR STORMS TO FORM, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS COULD
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE UPDRAFTS. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
SOLUTION SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE ALONE MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING. THERE REMAINS SOME WILDCARDS THOUGH. THE
HRRR ALSO WANTS TO DEVELOP AN MCS AND BRING IT INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL
KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH STORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PLAUSIBLE. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW SOME
LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES, HOWEVER THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF SATURATED AIR BEING LIFTED. SO I DON`T HAVE A GOOD
FEELING FOR WHETHER STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND I THINK THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONE
TO CAUSE SOME ELEVATED STORMS. IN THE END HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON OR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
WARM AIR NORTH.
FOR SUNDAY, MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WHILE 700
MB TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE DAY. SO UNLESS SOMETHING UNEXPECTED
HAPPENS, LIKE AN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KS IN THE MORNING, THINK
THE STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOW
LIMITED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KS WHILE NORTH
CENTRAL KS COULD MIX TO NEAR 800MB. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS SOME DRY
AIR MOVING IN AT 850 WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 15C. SO ACROSS
EASTERN KS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S BUT
WITH LESS MIXING SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD APPROACH 100 WITH DEEPER MIXING, BUT
SHOULD MIX SOME OF THE DRYER AIR TO THE SURFACE. IN THE END, HEAT
INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 105 SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM GETTING TOO FAR ABOVE 100, BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING. HEAT INDICES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL INTO ADVISORY AND PERHAPS
WARNING LEVELS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS IS USUAL AT
THIS RANGE, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND JUST HOW MUCH THE POOLED MOISTURE CAN MIX OUT BEING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT ON APPARENT TEMPS. THIS ALSO LEADS TO INSTABILITY/CAP VALUES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DESPITE WEAK CONVERGENCE. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER
FLOW LEADS TO MODERATE SHEAR AND COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION FOR NEAR SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH WIND POTENTIAL. HAVE
TRIMMED PRECIP CHANCES IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE QUICKER FRONT TIMING WITH MORE MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH STILL
MODEST RELIEF TO THE HEAT, ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY EXTENSION TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY IN CHECK.
THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN A SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE AND ENTERING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY,
WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT FOR DECENT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES L0CALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT COOLER WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE,
WITH RIDGE REGAINING SOME STRENGTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND IN THE LATE
WEEK. DEWPOINTS AT TO ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK COULD EASILY BRING
ABOUT MORE HEAT HEADLINE POTENTIAL BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAVING LIFTED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS, THINK DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS PROG 30-35KT AT THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. AT THIS TIME, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING. BECAUSE
OF THIS CONFIDENCE IN LLWS DEVELOPING IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE A
MENTION JUST YET.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
329 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY
KICKED IN ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING AND TODAY.
MOST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE SLIGHT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...BENDING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE EASTERN
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OBSERVED SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 1PM CDT SPRAWLED OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEND OUTFLOWS AND SOME UPSHEAR LIFT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
CLOSE TO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS FOR PARTS
OF PIKE...WARRICK AND SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IN
COLLABORATION WITH NWS INDIANAPOLIS...DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE IN SPACE AND TIME. IT
WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...ADDED A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
GRIDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VERY
ROBUST CAPE FOR UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR
INITIATION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE INVERSION IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND POSSIBLY A MICROBURST OR TWO) WITH THIS
REGIME IN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SUNDAY. THE ONLY
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE ANY DELAY IN REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SURFACE OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LEFT
OVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL EXPAND WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE/SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS DEFINITELY CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE 3KM HRRR FOR THE EXTREMELY SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...BLENDING TOWARD THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE IN THE
LONGER TIME PERIODS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS AND WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF REGARDING ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE AREA...DRIVEN BY
A MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MED RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
TUE. PCPN CHANCES (HIGHEST IN THE SERN QUADRANT) ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FORCING WILL WANE TUE NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW GOES
SLIGHTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC...LEAVING WED DRY. BY MIDDAY THU...A
SECOND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR WEST
(PARTS OF SERN MO) CLOSER TO A DOMINANT SRN CONUS RIDGE. SOME
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MINOR ENERGY IMPULSE
IN THE WESTERLIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS EVENT SHOULD END
THU NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND THE ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE
MARK IN SERN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS NEWD THROUGH THE NERN HALF OF
THE REGION TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL BE MORE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS A
POSSIBLE TSTM COMPLEX MAY MOVE THROUGH. THERE WAS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO FOR NOW
SHOWERS/TSTMS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE KEVV/KOWB TAFS. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE RE-EVALUATED DURING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME IFR FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KPAH.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU/STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A TSTM
OR TWO OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH CONVECTION FCST TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN
NATURE AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BATTLES AGAINST MASS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE. INSERTED VCSH AT
THE I-10 TERMINALS WHERE HIGHEST...ALBEIT STILL LOW...PROBABILITY
RESIDES.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT A FEW TENTHS BELOW
THAT OF YESTERDAY MORNING. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. RADAR JUST NOW DEPICTING A FEW PINPOINT
SHOWERS INLAND. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH LOW END POPS. NO UPDATE
COMING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
AVIATION...RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE MID LEVELS INTO THE UPPER
LEVELS. ALTHOUGH HRRR IS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL OPT TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED FROM ALL THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
VFR.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A S TO
SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING A FEW NOCTURNAL SHRA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PARISHES/COUNTIES AND DISSIPATING.
LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT AND FOCUS WILL LIMITED CONVECTION TO ISO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE ONGOING 20% STILL LOOKING
GOOD FOR THE FORECAST. LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY A BIT TOWARDS MON-WED...LIMITING CONVECTION
EVEN MORE...BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO BUMP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
MODEL BLEND ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOWARDS
FRI...WITH 20% EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...MOST NOTABLE FOR LOWS.
DML
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 94 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 10
LCH 91 77 92 77 / 20 10 10 10
LFT 92 75 93 76 / 20 10 10 10
BPT 91 77 92 76 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
133 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ANOTHER IDEAL MORNING IN NORTHERN MI. SKIES ARE JUST ABOUT
CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH-BASED CU IN THE GD TRAV BAY REGION...AND
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
WARM FRONT ADVANCING EAST NEAR MUNISING/ISQ...AND IS OCCURRING IN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE TOP OF YESTERDAYS MIXED LAYER. THERE
IS STRONG INVERSION PRESENT ABOVE THIS. PER 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...700MB TEMPS ARE 9C AT APX...10C AT GRB. THIS IS NOT
SURPRISING...GIVEN A 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DEAD
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SO IT WILL TAKE SOME SERIOUS WORK TO OVERCOME THIS CAP. THE
06Z/12Z NAM RUNS BOTH MANAGE TO DO SO...POPPING A STORM IN NE
LOWER BY EARLY EVENING. IT MANAGES THIS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED (NE MONTMORENCY)...WHERE THE TWO DIFFERENT ORIENTATIONS
OF THE LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE INTERSECT AND MEET THE BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC SW WIND. AN 84/60 SURFACE PARCEL SURFACE PARCEL GENERATES
ABOUT 800J/KG OF SBCAPE (AND DOES GET PAST THE CAP)...BUT MLCAPE
IS STILL NEGLIGIBLE. AM A TOUCH MORE NERVOUS ABOUT A DRY FORECAST
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT STILL BELIEVE DRY IS THE
WAY TO GO. (NOTE THE SPC HRRR KEEPS US DRY.)
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS CU FIELD WILL BUBBLE UP AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AFTER MIDDAY...IN PARTICULAR NE LOWER AND NW CHIPPEWA CO.
THAT WILL CERTAINLY NOT PREVENT A WARM AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
FROM NEAR 80F TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
...TURNING UP THE HEAT JUST A LITTLE MORE...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
OVERVIEW: SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SRN GULF STATES...DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HEAT/HUMIDITY IS STREAMING
FROM MEXICO UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES THEN BACK INTO THE PAC NW...WHERE SEVERAL SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE ONGOING. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES ALONG SOME SEMBLANCE OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THAT
REGION. BUT ONCE AGAIN A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.
PATTERN FORECAST: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
WESTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS BY SUNDAY...AND RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING UP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT THIS DOES SHIFT AXIS OF
HEAT/HUMIDITY INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND SETS UP A PROVERBIAL
"RING OF FIRE" AND POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES TO IMPACT THE REGION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORTER TERM IS WHETHER OR NOT NRN MICHIGAN CAN "CATCH" ANY PRECIP
FROM ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS. SHORT ANSWER IS...PROBABLY NOT.
TODAY...NO WORRIES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
PLAYER. TAKE YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS AND TAG ON ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
AS WARMER AIR INCHES IT/S WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EDGING H8 TEMPS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN INTO THE 15C TO
16C RANGE BY EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. BUT PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST (AND AS
SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z NAM BUT WHICH AGAIN IS OVERDOING SFC
DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY). BUT LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL NOT BE ADDING
ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DWINDLE AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO OVER TEXAS...FORCING HEAT/MOISTURE
AXIS TOWARD THE MIDWEST. NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY OF THAT CAN SNEAK
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN SHORT ANSWER IS PROBABLY NOT. ALL
GUIDANCE KEEPS AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHICH IS WHERE CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
RESIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DECENT SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO DRAG SOMETHING THIS FAR NORTH...I JUST DON/T SEE IT.
HENCE HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY.
(7/12)SUNDAY...THE FORECAST WAS TOUGH TO DETERMINE AS THE TWO MODELS
WERE AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING. HOWEVER, FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A
ROW, THE ECMWF HAS MANAGED TO PLAY CATCH UP TO THE GFS IDEA. SO HAVE
STARTED TO LEAN MORE TO THE GFS IDEAS WITH THE CONVECTION. LOOKING
AT THE SFC BASED CAPES OVER THE REGION THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HAVE AROUND 1000J/KG ON ONE MODEL AND NEARLY 2000J/KG ON
THE OTHER. COUPLED WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND THE DEVELOPING SFC
WAVE, WILL PUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION AS IT LOOKS
TO BE SCATTERED. OVERNIGHT DOESN`T LOOK AT GOOD, BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL AS THE INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS OKAY. THE ONE DOWNSIDE TO
ALL OF THIS CONVECTION IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
RAW MODELS, SO THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE A FIGMENT OF THE MODELS
IMAGINATION.
(7/13)MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POPS TO A MINIMUM AS THE
DEWPOINTS ON THE MODELS ENDS UP IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS IS RARELY THE
CASE IN N MICHIGAN. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER, IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS
OUT, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON THE LOWER CHANCE SIDE.
THIS FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WET, BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
FOR THE YEAR SO FAR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE DRY AIR INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOONER THAN THE ECMWF (TUESDAY NIGHT).
HOWEVER, THE BASIC IDEA IS THE SAME, WITH THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EVERY OTHER DAY OR TWO. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR.
LITTLE CHANGE THRU TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED IN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CU FIELD WILL LAST THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NW LOWER. THAT RAMPS UP TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHRA TOMORROW...BUT MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
OVERALL LARGE SCALE SW-S FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS CLOSER TO SHORE WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION. A
SIMILAR STORY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE
JUST A BIT MORE HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT 19Z...PLENTY OF CUMULUS HAD FORMED AND COVERED THE AREA. A LAKE
BREEZE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITH A NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA WAS KEEPING IT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INLAND.
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT HAD FORMED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED. 17Z HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY ANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. AFTER
06Z...MODELS POINT TOWARD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF. WITH THE WAA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CAPPING INVERSION
MAY KEEP STORMS FROM HAPPENING. MODEL QPF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND
HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR QPF AND HAVE POPS TO MATCH.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY
HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND
WITH POPS. IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE IMPACT OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE LOW POPS ALIGNED OVER THE APEX OF
THE INVERSION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION. USED
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON TAP. THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE STORMY
PATTERN...BUT THEN BY LATE WEEK THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF BOTH THIS NIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE
AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT AS WARM WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE LAKE AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST DEW POINTS WILL FALL...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THIS EVENING...CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
AT BRD/DLH/HYR. THEN LATE TONIGHT /AFTER MIDNIGHT/ EXPECT PATCHY
FOG AND IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP...WITH A FEW SPOTS DEVELOPING LIFR
CEILINGS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10KTS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
GUSTS TO 15-20KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 80 63 79 / 40 30 70 50
INL 62 85 64 83 / 10 40 40 50
BRD 65 89 65 87 / 50 30 70 40
HYR 65 83 66 82 / 30 40 60 50
ASX 62 82 63 80 / 10 30 60 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON...
FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS AND SHUTS DOWN CHANCES THERE. A WARMING TREND IS
UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW...AND HOLD AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SHIFT
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ONLY THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON
RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MONSOON MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS. TODAY`S ROUND OF STORMS FAVORS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WHERE SHEAR IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THE CURRENT CROP OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND IMPACT THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SOCORRO...
BELEN AND ALBUQUERQUE. THE 19Z HRRR SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO
BETWEEN 23-01Z. LOOKING MORE LIKE A GOOD BET HERE IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO WITH A LAST LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT
3 PM MDT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DIFFERENT THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH...
CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES...
MAINLY EAST...AND A FOCUSING OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH
MOVING-IN. SO...EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SLOWER
MOTION TO TILT THE THREAT TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MUCH
LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE.
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND BACK DOWN MON/TUE AS THE UPPER HIGH BACKS
OFF TO THE EAST A BIT...ALLOWING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO
TILT BACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA...
LEAVING-OUT ONLY THE SOUTHEAST IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK-WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT THE IDEAL PLUME POSITIONING WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUR FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD CLIMO FOR FRI/SAT.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DOWN TREND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...WITH
LESS ACTIVITY EAST CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
BIT...FINALLY REACHING ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...WHILE REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. HAINES
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...WITH AREAS OF 5 TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. VENTILATION TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF
POOR TO FAIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING A FAIRLY ROBUST MONSOON SURGE FROM MEXICO INTO NEW
MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAVORED THE WEST. RH
RECOVERIES TODAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL ZONES.
AS THE UPPER CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE PLUME WILL BE
NUDGED TO THE WEST AS WELL SUCH THAT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE WEST WILL SEE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE WETTING
RAIN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THERE ON MONDAY
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY
COULD ALSO HELP EXTEND THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH COULD WEAKEN/FLATTEN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOME ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MONSOON PLUME COULD REPOSITION OVER NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIALLY FAVOR
THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 20KT. COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO START DEVELOPING BEFORE NOON ON SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 57 87 59 86 / 20 20 20 30
DULCE........................... 48 81 51 81 / 20 20 30 30
CUBA............................ 49 81 51 80 / 50 40 30 40
GALLUP.......................... 52 83 54 83 / 30 30 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 51 81 51 80 / 40 40 30 50
GRANTS.......................... 54 82 53 83 / 30 30 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 54 81 55 81 / 40 30 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 56 87 56 87 / 30 40 30 50
CHAMA........................... 45 78 48 78 / 30 50 40 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 83 59 84 / 50 50 40 50
PECOS........................... 53 83 56 83 / 30 20 30 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 80 51 80 / 30 50 40 40
RED RIVER....................... 44 69 45 69 / 50 50 50 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 71 49 71 / 50 50 50 50
TAOS............................ 48 84 52 84 / 10 20 20 30
MORA............................ 52 79 53 79 / 50 40 40 50
ESPANOLA........................ 53 87 57 87 / 30 20 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 57 84 59 85 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 86 57 87 / 20 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 88 65 89 / 30 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 89 66 90 / 20 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 91 63 92 / 20 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 90 65 90 / 20 20 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 90 63 91 / 20 20 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 89 64 90 / 20 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 62 92 64 93 / 20 20 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 83 58 84 / 40 20 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 55 86 57 87 / 40 20 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 86 53 87 / 20 20 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 84 57 84 / 20 20 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 84 58 86 / 30 20 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 88 62 90 / 20 20 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 56 79 58 83 / 30 30 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 56 85 58 85 / 10 20 20 30
RATON........................... 52 88 56 88 / 10 10 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 54 89 57 89 / 5 10 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 84 55 85 / 10 10 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 61 96 65 95 / 5 5 20 10
ROY............................. 61 90 61 91 / 5 5 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 65 96 66 98 / 5 5 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 95 66 96 / 5 5 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 98 69 99 / 5 5 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 65 93 65 96 / 10 5 5 5
PORTALES........................ 66 94 67 97 / 10 5 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 94 66 97 / 5 5 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 68 97 67 100 / 10 5 5 5
PICACHO......................... 61 89 62 92 / 10 10 10 10
ELK............................. 59 85 59 88 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...BIG PICTURE ON WATER VAPOR SHOWS NW
FLW ALOFT WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE NOTED A VERY WEAK 5H VORT WITH SOME
MID LVL MOISTURE NEAR MANIWAKI, QC...WITH GENERAL SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
TWD OUR NORTHERN CWA BY TONIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW
VERY WEAK QPF OUTPUT FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH GREATEST CHCS OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NEK OF VT. WL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING A
MENTION SCHC TO VERY LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT.
ANY QPF WL BE LIGHT <0.10". EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
50S IN THE COOLER MTN VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED SFC DWPTS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH SOME BL WINDS BTWN 10
AND 15 KNOTS AND NO RAIN IN THE PAST 30 HOURS...WL NOT MENTION FOG
IN FCST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING
HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED
500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO
WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS
SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM
SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY
TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE
GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800
AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE
DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV
4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND
SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL
FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO
THE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DEPRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND POSITION
OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
ECMWF THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO...KEEPING
CHANCE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...BUT LACK OF FORCING ON ECMWF MAY
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DECREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DEPRESSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY THURSDAY AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS ALLOWS FOR HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. BROKEN DECK OF MID CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA. COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NORTH...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. COULD ALSO BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT FOG OR MIST...MAINLY AT MPV/SLK. BUT GIVEN EXPECTED MID
CLOUD DECK...HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND KEPT OUT
ANY MENTION OF FOG. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT MSS. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN
FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK. ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER.
00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...BIG PICTURE ON WATER VAPOR SHOWS NW
FLW ALOFT WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE NOTED A VERY WEAK 5H VORT WITH SOME
MID LVL MOISTURE NEAR MANIWAKI, QC...WITH GENERAL SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
TWD OUR NORTHERN CWA BY TONIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW
VERY WEAK QPF OUTPUT FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH GREATEST CHCS OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NEK OF VT. WL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING A
MENTION SCHC TO VERY LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT.
ANY QPF WL BE LIGHT <0.10". EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
50S IN THE COOLER MTN VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED SFC DWPTS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH SOME BL WINDS BTWN 10
AND 15 KNOTS AND NO RAIN IN THE PAST 30 HOURS...WL NOT MENTION FOG
IN FCST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY WEAK 5H VORT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING
HELPING TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AFTN. HAVING DIFFICULTIES SEEING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT AND PROGGED
500MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO
WILL MENTION JUST ISOLATED CHCS ATTM FOR SUNDAY. GFS QPF FIELDS
SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE FROM
SATURDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEY
TOWNS TO M/UPPER 80S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY UNDERCUTTING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND PRODUCING AREAS OF QPF ACROSS OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LIS BTWN -2C AND -4C OFF THE
GFS...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS GREATER SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1800
AND 2400 J/KG AND LIS NEAR -6C. THINKING THESE NUMBERS ARE OVERDONE
DUE TO PROGGED SFC DWPTS TEMPS OF 20C OFF THE NAM SOLUTION. NAM/BTV
4KM INDICATES A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SE FLOW AROUND
SFC HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AHEAD OF NEXT SFC COLD
FRNT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LLVL
FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW
CHC POPS ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING...BUT THINKING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS
MID/UPPER 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...SFC DWPTS WILL CONT TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES...ADDING TO
THE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER UNSETTLED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. BROKEN DECK OF MID CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA. COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NORTH...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. COULD ALSO BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT FOG OR MIST...MAINLY AT MPV/SLK. BUT GIVEN EXPECTED MID
CLOUD DECK...HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND KEPT OUT
ANY MENTION OF FOG. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT MSS. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN
FOG MONDAY...MAINLY MPV/SLK. ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
12Z MON-00Z THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDER.
00Z THU-00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA HAS TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NC IN A STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS
NORTHEAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED AND LESS INTENSE THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN....WITH REALLY JUST SHOWERS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF I-95...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT
HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE RAH
CWA AND WITHIN THE ONGOING SEVERE TSTORM WATCH. TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN EXPANDING BUT NO MORE THAN A STRAY
SHOWER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OFFSHORE
AND ALLOW A SECONDARY...EFFECTIVE FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SLIP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL ADVECT SOME LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER VA... WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE 1000-
2000FT RANGE...SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...BUT
NAM/GFS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER EAST OF US HWY 1. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOWER SOUTH AND EAST 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SATURDAY...
WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE NC/VA COAST...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. THICKNESSES AROUND
1400M SUNDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 10M BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS SHOULD BE
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 87-91 RANGE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND/OR OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME SOME
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING OR EVEN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND ITS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY THERE WILL BE TO AID IN ANY
ADDITIONAL MUCAPE OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP WEST TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST...FOLLOWING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED OVER TX/LA...WITH
TROUGHS OVER EACH COAST...THROUGH THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO POTENTIAL
REMNANT MCS/MCVS TRACKING OVERHEAD AND HENCE SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN PRECISE TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY
CONVECTION...WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL TYPE POPS EACH DAY. AS OF NOW...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE AS
MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION BETTER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE PROGGED OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35
KNOTS IS EXPECTED AND MODELS INDICATE A MODIFIED EML ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THE ECMWF IS STILL 12-24 HOURS BEHIND IN RELATION TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST SHORTWAVE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
SHOW THE RELATIVE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH AT LEAST CLIMO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT THIS COULD BE ALTERED
BY HIGHER CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
INCREASE AND COVERAGE AND ALSO IN INTENSITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KRWI BETWEEN 18Z AND 21. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 15-
18KT SPORADICALLY...THEN TURNING TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS AND A COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF KRDU. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR
STRATUS AND OTHERS INDICATE AS LOW AS LIFR. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR
CONDITIONS ISN`T VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT...BUT KRWI WOULD LIKELY HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF THE POOREST CONDITIONS.
DRIER AIR AND LESS INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO FEW STORMS ON
SUNDAY...IF ANY...AND VFR CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
MONDAY...WHEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA HAS TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NC IN A STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS
NORTHEAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED AND LESS INTENSE THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN....WITH REALLY JUST SHOWERS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF I-95...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT
HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE RAH
CWA AND WITHIN THE ONGOING SEVERE TSTORM WATCH. TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN EXPANDING BUT NO MORE THAN A STRAY
SHOWER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OFFSHORE
AND ALLOW A SECONDARY...EFFECTIVE FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SLIP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL ADVECT SOME LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER VA... WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE 1000-
2000FT RANGE...SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...BUT
NAM/GFS AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER EAST OF US HWY 1. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOWER SOUTH AND EAST 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT: WITH THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WITH A RESERVOIR OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY/LOWER THETA-E AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS BY JULY
STANDARDS WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
AS FCST MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW...ON THE
NORTHEASTERN FLANKS OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDER MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED OWING TO THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED OVER TX/LA...WITH
TROUGHS OVER EACH COAST...THROUGH THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO POTENTIAL
REMNANT MCS/MCVS TRACKING OVERHEAD AND HENCE SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN PRECISE TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY
CONVECTION...WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL TYPE POPS EACH DAY. AS OF NOW...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE AS
MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION BETTER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE PROGGED OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35
KNOTS IS EXPECTED AND MODELS INDICATE A MODIFIED EML ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THE ECMWF IS STILL 12-24 HOURS BEHIND IN RELATION TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST SHORTWAVE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
SHOW THE RELATIVE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH AT LEAST CLIMO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT THIS COULD BE ALTERED
BY HIGHER CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
INCREASE AND COVERAGE AND ALSO IN INTENSITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KRWI BETWEEN 18Z AND 21. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 15-
18KT SPORADICALLY...THEN TURNING TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS AND A COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF KRDU. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR
STRATUS AND OTHERS INDICATE AS LOW AS LIFR. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR
CONDITIONS ISN`T VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT...BUT KRWI WOULD LIKELY HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF THE POOREST CONDITIONS.
DRIER AIR AND LESS INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO FEW STORMS ON
SUNDAY...IF ANY...AND VFR CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
MONDAY...WHEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
222 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WELL-DEFINED
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE COAST NOW...AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY GENERIC SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NOW
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND DON`T EXPECT MANY STORMS TODAY
BECAUSE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA.
TONIGHT...THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST AREA. TOMORROW IS TRENDING LESS UNSTABLE PER RECENT
MODEL RUNS...THOUGH STILL A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY. WE HAVE
KEPT CONFIDENCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST VERSUS COVERAGE...SIMPLY
BECAUSE THE PATTERN AND THE PARAMETERS THAT SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT VERY ROBUST TOMORROW AND THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS
ALIGN WITH THIS THINKING. SAID MORE SUCCINCTLY...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH WE`LL HAVE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON MONDAY MIDLEVEL FLOW SWITCHES MORE WESTERLY AND THIS BRINGS IN
DRIER AIR ALOFT...FURTHER REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING.
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NUDGES EASTWARD SOME...WARMING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH THE EC AND GFS...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SHOW A HEFTY
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC WATERS. THE EC PEGS IT AT 561
DM. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IN A
REGION OF NORTHERLY OR WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY KEEPING US
DRY AND PREVENTING ANY HEATWAVES. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY DICTATE OUR WEATHER OUT PAST DAY 7. OF NOTE ARE SOME
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC THAT WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED...AND MAY
WREAK HAVOC ON MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN...MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED TO VFR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL OBSCURATION
OF HIGHER TERRAIN. WEST WINDS WILL BE A FEW MPH STRONGER DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BECOME CHOPPY AND WIND-DRIVEN. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS TUESDAY...SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. -MND
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SATURDAY 11 JULY 2015...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH..THE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY COOLER BUT MUCH DRIER AIR.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AND THE VALLEYS AND
LOWER SLOPES OF THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR IS
ENTRENCHED.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA
WILL BE IN THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDING INDICATES LIFTED INDEX OF -3 IS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE THIS AREA
IN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES..THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND LIFTING OF THE PARCEL FROM THE CLOUD BASE ONLY GIVES
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY..A THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXPAND
NORTH INTO THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTHERN OREGON LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWERING NIGHT TIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
NSK/NSK/FJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 700MB
READINGS ARE IN THE +8 TO +11C RANGE...WITH WARMEST READINGS OVERTOP
THE DRY LINE BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70F...ENOUGH TO GENERATE OVER
4000 J/KG MLCAPE. WINDS THROUGH THE PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SPC SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. POOR OVERALL
CONFIDENCE STEMS FORM THE LACK OF ANY UPPER WAVE...AND A LACK OF
CONVECTION BEING GENERATED IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE WITH ONLY THE MOST
RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR DEPICTING ANY STORMS. BEST
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK
THE CAP...WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S.
A MORE DISCERNIBLE WAVE IS EVIDENT FOR SUNDAY. THE DRY LINE WILL
ALSO BE PUSHED INTO THE JAMES VALLEY...SO TEMPERATURES COULD MAX OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 100. WILL LEAVE HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINE IN PLACE.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT FETCH OUT OF THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE
REGION AND MORE SMOKE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON STORM MONDAY THANKS
TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF
S/W ENERGY AS A DECENT JET DIGS A TROF INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRETTY DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SOME DRYNESS AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE
TNT...THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD MOSTLY VFR. LATE
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABR/KATY BUT FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ006>008-011-
018>023.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1218 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK THERMAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND HOP/WRF KEEP THE CONVECTION VERY
SPOTTY AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW
AND ENHANCE AS DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS CAPPING FROM INCREASINGLY WARM AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA. BY LATE
IN THE DAY THIS ACTIVITY...IF THERE IS ANY LEFT...SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME MINIMAL NEW
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...STRONG WARMING OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA MAY INCLUDE ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP FAR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE GETS CLOSER. THIS IDEA WAS
DEEMED REASONABLE IN THE EARLIER FORECAST AND STILL LOOKS SO...BUT
AGAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE.
THE SURGE OF WARMING AND HEATING SHOULD TAKE TEMPERATURES UP TO THE
90S WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID 80S EAST. LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL
BE PREVALENT IN AREAS EAST THIS MORNING SHOULD HEAT OUT AND
GENERALLY DECREASE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF STORMS FAR EAST WITH THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE A WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES WITHING A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HEAT AT THE FOREFRONT OF MID RANGE CONCERNS. CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TRAPPING NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE QUITE EFFECTIVELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN THIS EVENING WILL
ACT TO MODIFY ENVIRONMENT TO SOME DEGREE...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REINFORCE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EASTWARD.
EVENTUALLY...APPEARS AS IF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY OR A BIT EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND OTHER
THAN A BUFFER OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS...
MIXING WILL BE QUITE CHALLENGED BY THE STRONG INVERSION. AS A
RESULT...WILL PROBABLY NOT GET QUITE AS TOASTY FROM AROUND I29
EASTWARD...BUT STILL PLENTY WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE AREAS
WEST OF THE TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO FIND A FEW SPOTS REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK...AS DEWPOINTS MIX GREATLY INTO THE 50S. EVEN WITH THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...DEWPOINTS WILL SOAR WELL
INTO THE 70S...AND WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF 100 TO 105 DEGREE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX. JAMES VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE WORST
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE START TO SEE MIXING LOWERING THE MOISTURE
CONTENT. WITH THE LONG PERIOD SINCE LAST EXTREME HEAT AND THE
NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON THE WEEKEND...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
HEAT ADVISORY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY.
NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND A ROGUE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM TO
START THE DAY...BUT SUCH A LOW CHANCE THAT HAVE KEPT CLEAR OF THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND START TO ERODE SOME
OF THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT. REALLY HARD TO PICTURE THERE BEING ENOUGH
LIFT TO BREAK RESIDUAL INVERSION EVEN AFTER FULL HEATING...WITH
CIN LIKELY IN THE 50-150 J/KG RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE
CHANCE THERE COULD BE A GOLDILOCKS LOCATION WHERE THE WEAKENING
CAP AND FORCING ARE JUST RIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT WORTH
CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THREAT. HOWEVER...KEEP
AWARE...AS THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO MAKE
FOR A STRONGER STORM. PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR THINGS TO
COME TOGETHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
FORCING DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUICKLY
CLOSING WINDOW AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES QUICKLY PAST AND DEEPER
DRYING ON WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND ALLOW THE SURFACE TO RECOVER QUITE
A BIT IN THOSE FULLY MIXED AREAS...AND RETAIN SOME UPPER 60S
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ON MONDAY...AS SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...THE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELAXED SOMEWHAT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHEST READINGS EAST OF I 29 DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
DEEPER MIXING SHOULD TAKE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WEST TO LOWER TO
MID 60S EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES. THE HEAT INDEX WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S. WILL HAVE TO
SEE IF WE GET ANOTHER INCREASE IN SMOKE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS COULD IMPACT TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WOULD SEEMINGLY BE A
BIT MORE ACTIVE IN GENERAL...WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BREACHED PERIODICALLY WITH SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COMMON FEATURE IN MODELS IS WAVE AROUND
WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FROM NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION IN
ECMWF COULD KEEP A BETTER BACKDOOR BOUNDARY AROUND MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WAVE HAS PROXIMITY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...BUT
DRASTICALLY DIFFERING TIMING IN GREATER ENSEMBLE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
SURFACE REFLECTION. WATCHING FOR ANOTHER EASTWARD SURGE IN WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...WHICH COULD BE ON THE WAY FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MVFR CEILINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
053>056-059>062-065>071.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HI-RES ARW AND NMM SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE RAP IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN SO THOUGHT
THE NAM/RAP WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE. PW VALUES WILL PEAK NEAR 2.00
INCHES THIS AFTN SO FEEL VCSH IS WARRANTED. WILL WATCH TREND AND
MAY HAVE TO CARRY THUNDER LATER THIS AFTN AS THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GENERATE THUNDER. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SO WENT GENERALLY
VFR. COULD GET SOME FOG AT KCXO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. VFR/DRY ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
UPDATE...
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE HAD SPREAD
FARTHER WEST FROM EVENING OBSERVATIONS... WITH 1-2 DECAMETER
HEIGHT RISES SEEN OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND OKLAHOMA.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF 1.6
TO 1.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THIS PLUME APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED FARTHER INLAND THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY HOWEVER /ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 59
CORRIDOR NOW/ AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN LIBERTY
AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. AS DEEPER MOISTURE THIS MORNING SPREADS
INLAND... ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES TRENDS WELL WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW ISO SHOWERS OFF THE COAST IN
THE GULF WHERE GOES SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.8 INCHES. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND TODAY AND SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS
594/595 DM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF INCLUDING SE TX.
WHILE HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THINK AT LEAST SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT
THE ACTIVITY. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE OVER MUCH OF TX AND S
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
S PLAINS AND TX FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. HIGHER MOISTURE MAY ALSO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF WHICH WILL BRING BACK A MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NEXT FRI/SAT.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO NUMBERS
OR MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. HOUSTON IAH STILL HAS NOT
REACHED 95 DEGREES FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE THIS YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE
THAT MARK WILL BE REACHED SUN/MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.
39
MARINE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING MARINE FCST. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN MOSTLY PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. SPEEDS OFFSHORE USUALLY A BIT
STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 94 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 94 75 95 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 91 80 92 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HAVE BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE MORNING AT TRYING TO KEEP AHEAD OF
THE WEATHER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY UPSTREAM MOVING AT THE AREA
IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MINOR MUCAPE
/250 J/KG/ OF INSTABILITY TO POP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER.
BELIEVE THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND
FEEL SOME DIMINISHMENT MAY OCCUR AS IT DOES. BEHIND THE
WAVE...BELIEVE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD WITH LITTLE
FORCING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES BEHIND
THE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...BUT AM STILL ASSESSING LATER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD AND RAIN HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO REALLY STAY
COOL. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY SOME...BUT SOME LATE SUN COULD POP
THEM UP FAST. SO...HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON COOL WITH A LATE JUMP.
RAIN RATES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH SUCH LITTLE CAPE. THESE
LITTLE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE CAUSING SOME GOOD DOWNPOURS. 50DBZ
CORE NEAR AUTIN MN CAUSED 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME. HERE COMES THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH 1.5 INCH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITH ANOTHER OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE TREND IN THE 11.00Z MODELS AND
11.03Z RAP IS FOR THE WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO FLATTEN
OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TOP PART OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH WITH A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF IT REACHING ABOUT THE IOWA/MISSOURI
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS
WELL. THE MESO MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS AS WELL
WITH THE 11.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND NMM KEEPING THE AREA
DRY WHILE THE 11.00Z NAM12 AND 11.05Z HRRR STILL TRY TO BRING THE
REMAINS OF SOME DEVELOPING CENTRAL IOWA CONVECTION INTO THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR THIS MORNING. BASED ON ALL THESE
SOLUTIONS...HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN FOR TODAY WITH
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH TO AT MOST A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AS IT COULD END
UP BEING TOTALLY DRY NORTH OF THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE BIT OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TAKING ON A MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE NAM REALLY
RAMPS UP THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY AND BREAKS OUT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 11.00Z GFS SOMEWHAT HINTS AT THIS AS WELL WHILE THE
11.00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE HI-RES NMM IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHILE
THE HI-RES ARW IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT
THE NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT AND WILL
ONLY CARRY A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE REAL ACTION AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY COME SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER OREGON AND NEVADA. THIS WAVE SHOULD TOP
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT COMES ACROSS.
THIS LIFT SHOULD BE AIDED BY SOME JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE 300 MB JET AS THIS COMES IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTH EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO ILLINOIS WITH THE GFS SHOWING WEAK
TO MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER NORTH OF THE
FRONT. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SHOULD FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS
TO WORK WITH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS UP TO
2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE SUNDAY EVENING ONLY DROPPING OFF TO 1500 J/KG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UP TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR SHOULD MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THIS BEING PRIMARILY IN THE
0-3 KM LAYER. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NOCTURNAL
MCS TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SEVERE WIND THREAT. HAIL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF THREAT WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON THE ORDER
OF 3.5 TO 4 KM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL RATES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE FLATTENING OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW AND COME ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF A
WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS HANDLED. THE GFS OPENS THIS SYSTEM UP AND BRINGS IT
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AS
A CLOSED LOW HOLDING IT BACK WITH RIDGING OVER THE REGION. WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND OVER THE NEXT HOURS AT KRST AS IFR CIGS
WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR IF
SOME SHOWERS WORK INTO KLSE BUT LATEST 60 MINUTES OF RADAR
INDICATE A DIMINISHING TREND.
OVERNIGHT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEAR SKIES...IN
CONCERT WITH COOLER HIGHS TODAY UNDER THE CLOUDS...WILL SET UP THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.
THIS IS ALL NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
I-35. THIS CLOUD AREA WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION...ANCHORED IN WI. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING IFR CLOUD FORECAST IS MEDIUM. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS SHOULD IT ALL COME TOGETHER IDEALLY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1233 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.UPDATE...
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST BRUSH SOUTHERN WI WITH PRECIP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A REMNANT MCV
THAT WILL BE ROLLING ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WHOLE MKX FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS COMING IN ARE NOW SHOWING A DRIER
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS WELL.
SPC REMOVED OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER
SOUTHERN WI TODAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S NEAR
THE IL BORDER... BUT ARE ALREADY AROUND 80 TOWARD SHEBOYGAN WITH
MORE SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THEY REACH SOUTHEAST WI
BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP CROSSING
NORTHERN IL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN WI SO SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON COMPOSITE RADAR ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND...
APPARENT ON THE LOCAL MKX RADAR. THERE MAY BE VIRGA INSTEAD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DIMINISHING FOR
TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST.
I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT.
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
WHICH IS TYPICALLY A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HOWEVER...
THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PRECLUDE THEIR
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
500 MB RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG A WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOME -SHRA CAN BE
SEEN IN SOUTHEAST IOWA AT 08Z SATURDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR 80F ACROSS
S WI...AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 20C BY THE GFS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHEAST.
11.06 HRRR MESO MODEL IS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER AS THE HRRR
IS PROGGING AN MCV DEVELOPING ACROSS N IL. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
GFS MODEL AS WELL...KEEPING THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SUPPORT SOUTH AS
ISENTROPIC OMEGA VALUES REACH NEARLY 9 UBAR/S IN THE GFS.
SO...REDUCED THE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY AXIS REACHES S WI. KEPT LIKELY
POPS AS BETTER 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND 850-700 MB Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE CREEPS INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF A JANESVILLE TO
CROSS PLAINS TO LOGANVILLE LINE. GOOD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL WAA COMES IN. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH
2500+ J/KG ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING MUCAPE ONLY AOA 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GRADUAL BUILDING OF HEIGHTS WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS BLOWS UP ANOTHER ONE WITHIN THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS REGIME BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE ERRONEOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING A CLEANER BUILDUP OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING SHRA/PSBL TSRA PRIOR TO 18Z WITH
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE AND 850/925 BAROCLINICITY. THE 850
FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER NE WITH 925 TEMPS REALLY SOARING THOUGH THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS ONTO THIS BOUNDARY LONGER WHICH SHOWS A COOLER
REGIME THAN WHAT THE NAM/GFS IMPLIES. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES
BUILDING UP TO 3000 J/KG WITH INVERSION JUST UNDER 5K FEET. SOME
AREAS SEEING SIGNIFICANT CIN DEVELOPING. LIFT BECOMES LESS
DISCERNIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON NORTHWARD SHIFT OF WARM FRONT AND ANY
UPPER FORCING QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE PROGGD ERRONEOUS VORT
BULLSEYE ON THE GFS. WILL GO WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
SOME ONSHORE COOLING EFFECTS IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING AN MCS TO RIDE ALONG LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLY PLACED WITH LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AND MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW GREATEST WINDOW OF CONCERN BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH 12-18Z BEING MORE
PRIME. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE QUICKER SOLUTION. AIRMASS
WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PER SPC DISC FOR SWODY2
THE CONVECTION AFFECTING SRN WI WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO MORE OF A
WIND EVENT AS THESE STORMS RIDE IN NW-SE. CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON HOW BOUNDARIES LAY OUT AFTER THE
MORNING STORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW STILL CYCLONIC WITH 250 JET STILL
POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH DIVERGENCE STILL NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA. IF AIRMASS CAN RELOAD LOOKING AT CAPE BUILDUP WITH AFTERNOON
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN LOTS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW AIRMASS SETS UP AFTER THE MORNING ACTIVITY. ATTM SPC SWODY3
IS KEYING ON THIS BEING MORE ROBUST FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR CWA
PROBABLY MORE CO-LOCATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
ECMWF/NAM SHOW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WITH NE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN.
SO NEED TO RETAIN SOME POPS FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WHICH
INCLUDES THE NAM AS WELL. ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT WAVE
ARRIVINGDURING PRIME TIME AS WELL. HOPEFULLY FUTURE MODEL RUNS
WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH NE-E FLOW AND COOLER
AIRMASS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH IN
PLACE THIS PERIOD AS NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HANGS OUT
IN THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP. GIVEN THE
DISPARITY WILL LEAN ON THE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -SHRA MOVE
INTO THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP IN TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AT THAT TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1206 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST BRUSH SOUTHERN WI WITH PRECIP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A REMNANT MCV
THAT WILL BE ROLLING ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WHOLE MKX FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS COMING IN ARE NOW SHOWING A DRIER
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS WELL.
SPC REMOVED OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER
SOUTHERN WI TODAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S NEAR
THE IL BORDER... BUT ARE ALREADY AROUND 80 TOWARD SHEBOYGAN WITH
MORE SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THEY REACH SOUTHEAST WI
BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP CROSSING
NORTHERN IL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN WI SO SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON COMPOSITE RADAR ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND...
APPARENT ON THE LOCAL MKX RADAR. THERE MAY BE VIRGA INSTEAD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DIMINISHING FOR
TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
500 MB RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG A WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOME -SHRA CAN BE
SEEN IN SOUTHEAST IOWA AT 08Z SATURDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR 80F ACROSS
S WI...AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 20C BY THE GFS. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHEAST.
11.06 HRRR MESO MODEL IS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER AS THE HRRR
IS PROGGING AN MCV DEVELOPING ACROSS N IL. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
GFS MODEL AS WELL...KEEPING THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SUPPORT SOUTH AS
ISENTROPIC OMEGA VALUES REACH NEARLY 9 UBAR/S IN THE GFS.
SO...REDUCED THE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY AXIS REACHES S WI. KEPT LIKELY
POPS AS BETTER 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND 850-700 MB Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE CREEPS INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF A JANESVILLE TO
CROSS PLAINS TO LOGANVILLE LINE. GOOD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL WAA COMES IN. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH
2500+ J/KG ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING MUCAPE ONLY AOA 1000 J/KG.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GRADUAL BUILDING OF HEIGHTS WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS BLOWS UP ANOTHER ONE WITHIN THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS REGIME BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE ERRONEOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING A CLEANER BUILDUP OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING SHRA/PSBL TSRA PRIOR TO 18Z WITH
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE AND 850/925 BAROCLINICITY. THE 850
FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER NE WITH 925 TEMPS REALLY SOARING THOUGH THE
12Z ECMWF HANGS ONTO THIS BOUNDARY LONGER WHICH SHOWS A COOLER
REGIME THAN WHAT THE NAM/GFS IMPLIES. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES
BUILDING UP TO 3000 J/KG WITH INVERSION JUST UNDER 5K FEET. SOME
AREAS SEEING SIGNIFICANT CIN DEVELOPING. LIFT BECOMES LESS
DISCERNIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON NORTHWARD SHIFT OF WARM FRONT AND ANY
UPPER FORCING QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE PROGGD ERRONEOUS VORT
BULLSEYE ON THE GFS. WILL GO WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
SOME ONSHORE COOLING EFFECTS IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING AN MCS TO RIDE ALONG LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLY PLACED WITH LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AND MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW GREATEST WINDOW OF CONCERN BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH 12-18Z BEING MORE
PRIME. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE QUICKER SOLUTION. AIRMASS
WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PER SPC DISC FOR SWODY2
THE CONVECTION AFFECTING SRN WI WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO MORE OF A
WIND EVENT AS THESE STORMS RIDE IN NW-SE. CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON HOW BOUNDARIES LAY OUT AFTER THE
MORNING STORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW STILL CYCLONIC WITH 250 JET STILL
POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH DIVERGENCE STILL NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA. IF AIRMASS CAN RELOAD LOOKING AT CAPE BUILDUP WITH AFTERNOON
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN LOTS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW AIRMASS SETS UP AFTER THE MORNING ACTIVITY. ATTM SPC SWODY3
IS KEYING ON THIS BEING MORE ROBUST FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR CWA
PROBABLY MORE CO-LOCATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
ECMWF/NAM SHOW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WITH NE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN.
SO NEED TO RETAIN SOME POPS FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WHICH
INCLUDES THE NAM AS WELL. ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT WAVE
ARRIVINGDURING PRIME TIME AS WELL. HOPEFULLY FUTURE MODEL RUNS
WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH NE-E FLOW AND COOLER
AIRMASS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH IN
PLACE THIS PERIOD AS NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HANGS OUT
IN THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP. GIVEN THE
DISPARITY WILL LEAN ON THE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -SHRA MOVE
INTO THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP IN TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AT THAT TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1147 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
HAVE BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE MORNING AT TRYING TO KEEP AHEAD OF
THE WEATHER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY UPSTREAM MOVING AT THE AREA
IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MINOR MUCAPE
/250 J/KG/ OF INSTABILITY TO POP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER.
BELIEVE THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND
FEEL SOME DIMINISHMENT MAY OCCUR AS IT DOES. BEHIND THE
WAVE...BELIEVE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD WITH LITTLE
FORCING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES BEHIND
THE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...BUT AM STILL ASSESSING LATER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD AND RAIN HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO REALLY STAY
COOL. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY SOME...BUT SOME LATE SUN COULD POP
THEM UP FAST. SO...HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON COOL WITH A LATE JUMP.
RAIN RATES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH SUCH LITTLE CAPE. THESE
LITTLE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE CAUSING SOME GOOD DOWNPOURS. 50DBZ
CORE NEAR AUTIN MN CAUSED 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME. HERE COMES THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH 1.5 INCH
VALUES TRANSPORTING NORTH OVER THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITH ANOTHER OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE TREND IN THE 11.00Z MODELS AND
11.03Z RAP IS FOR THE WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO FLATTEN
OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TOP PART OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH WITH A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF IT REACHING ABOUT THE IOWA/MISSOURI
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS
WELL. THE MESO MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS AS WELL
WITH THE 11.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND NMM KEEPING THE AREA
DRY WHILE THE 11.00Z NAM12 AND 11.05Z HRRR STILL TRY TO BRING THE
REMAINS OF SOME DEVELOPING CENTRAL IOWA CONVECTION INTO THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR THIS MORNING. BASED ON ALL THESE
SOLUTIONS...HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN FOR TODAY WITH
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH TO AT MOST A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AS IT COULD END
UP BEING TOTALLY DRY NORTH OF THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE BIT OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TAKING ON A MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE NAM REALLY
RAMPS UP THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY AND BREAKS OUT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 11.00Z GFS SOMEWHAT HINTS AT THIS AS WELL WHILE THE
11.00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE HI-RES NMM IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHILE
THE HI-RES ARW IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT
THE NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT AND WILL
ONLY CARRY A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE REAL ACTION AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY COME SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER OREGON AND NEVADA. THIS WAVE SHOULD TOP
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT COMES ACROSS.
THIS LIFT SHOULD BE AIDED BY SOME JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE 300 MB JET AS THIS COMES IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTH EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO ILLINOIS WITH THE GFS SHOWING WEAK
TO MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER NORTH OF THE
FRONT. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SHOULD FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS
TO WORK WITH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS UP TO
2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE SUNDAY EVENING ONLY DROPPING OFF TO 1500 J/KG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UP TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR SHOULD MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THIS BEING PRIMARILY IN THE
0-3 KM LAYER. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NOCTURNAL
MCS TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SEVERE WIND THREAT. HAIL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF THREAT WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON THE ORDER
OF 3.5 TO 4 KM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL RATES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE FLATTENING OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW AND COME ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF A
WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS HANDLED. THE GFS OPENS THIS SYSTEM UP AND BRINGS IT
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AS
A CLOSED LOW HOLDING IT BACK WITH RIDGING OVER THE REGION. WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
A GENERALLY VFR PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
DOES LOOK TO SPREAD 3500-4500 FT BKN CIGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THESE CLOUDS/MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME DRYING OF THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN TONIGHT...WITH MORE SCT CUMULUS/STRATO-
CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 01-02Z. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AT THE TAF SITES
MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. GIVEN EXPECTED WIDELY
SCT TO SCT COVERAGE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AND
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY PERIODS WHEN SHRA/TSRA WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LEAVING VCSH/VCTS
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF DETAILS BECOME CLEARER ON SHRA/TSRA
OCCURRENCE NEAR/AT KLSE/KRST LATER CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO MENTION OF
SUCH TO THE TAFS AS NEEDED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST WYO. EXPECT THAT SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS AM. LLVL MOISTURE IS MODEST...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG PER THE LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS FROM SPC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 03Z...AT
WHICH POINT THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHUT THINGS OFF. DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE ANYTHING SEVERE TODAY WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS
IN THE DRIER SFC ENVIRONMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY TO BE FREE OF ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL WEAK MIDLVL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE FLOW...BUT H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS FROM
THE GFS/NAM/ECM ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT
THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS SOME LIGHT QPF SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS IN
THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME RECENTLY WITH
THE MOIST LLVL ENVIRONMENT AND SMALL-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...SO
HONESTLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS NEED TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TSTM OR TWO ON THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTN. IT WILL
BE MUCH WARMER ALOFT THOUGH...SO CAPPING WILL PLAY A ROLE. SHOULD BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH H7 TEMPS +14 TO +16 C.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR GIVEN THAT SMALL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF THESE SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE NUMERICAL MODELS TO
DETERMINE WITH GREAT ACCURACY.
BY MID NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATE IN THE WEEK BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...
BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY COOL SHOT OF AIR FOR MID JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE INTO THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE MON INTO
TUE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1200 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO ADD LOW-END POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE
SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE THIS AFTN/EVE. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS
STILL DECENT LLVL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LLVL FORCING ALONG
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS. RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS WELL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY INITIATED ALONG A MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED WEST-EAST NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AND WAS
SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK VORTICITY MOVING
OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE AS IT MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING REMAINING
MOSTLY DRY.
TODAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST JET OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE CWA. IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY WE WILL HAVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
THE EVENING. TEMPS AT H7 WILL INCREASE TO 13-14C BY 00Z THO WHICH
SHOULD MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS. SO MAINTAINED FOCUS FOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH AN ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR STORMS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO OVERALL LOW INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING T-STORM
POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A 100 KT JET
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE SFC THO...LEAVING LITTLE IN
TERMS OF SFC FORCING OTHER THAN GENERAL OROGRAPHICS. ALSO...MODELS
SHOW A DRY PUNCH ADVECTING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO KEPT CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAINS STORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL VISIT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY SO
EXPECT TYPICAL HIGH BASED STORMS TO OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NEARBY HIGH VALLEYS. WEAK WESTERLY SFC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA
EXCEPT PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH THE
HOTTEST DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MID 80-90S ACROSS THE EAST AND 70S-80S IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ON TUES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS 700-500MB RH
VALUES COME UP. THUS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN AFTN AND EVENING
CONVECTION ON TUES. WILL FCST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS FOR NOW. STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH RATHER
LIMITED INSTABILITY/SHEAR. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME DRYING BY WED
WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE MIDLVL MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD FOR ONE
MORE DAY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY THURS WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS WYOMING...BRINGING IN SOME DRYING AND REDUCED
CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THURS
NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER MONTANA.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR MID JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE INTO THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1014 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO ADD LOW-END POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE
SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE THIS AFTN/EVE. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS
STILL DECENT LLVL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LLVL FORCING ALONG
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS. RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS WELL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY INITIATED ALONG A MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED WEST-EAST NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AND WAS
SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK VORTICITY MOVING
OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE AS IT MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING REMAINING
MOSTLY DRY.
TODAY WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST JET OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE CWA. IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY WE WILL HAVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
THE EVENING. TEMPS AT H7 WILL INCREASE TO 13-14C BY 00Z THO WHICH
SHOULD MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS. SO MAINTAINED FOCUS FOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH AN ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR STORMS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO OVERALL LOW INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING T-STORM
POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A 100 KT JET
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE SFC THO...LEAVING LITTLE IN
TERMS OF SFC FORCING OTHER THAN GENERAL OROGRAPHICS. ALSO...MODELS
SHOW A DRY PUNCH ADVECTING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO KEPT CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAINS STORMS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL VISIT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY SO
EXPECT TYPICAL HIGH BASED STORMS TO OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NEARBY HIGH VALLEYS. WEAK WESTERLY SFC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA
EXCEPT PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH THE
HOTTEST DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MID 80-90S ACROSS THE EAST AND 70S-80S IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ON TUES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS 700-500MB RH
VALUES COME UP. THUS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN AFTN AND EVENING
CONVECTION ON TUES. WILL FCST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS FOR NOW. STRONG STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH RATHER
LIMITED INSTABILITY/SHEAR. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME DRYING BY WED
WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE MIDLVL MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD FOR ONE
MORE DAY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY THURS WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS WYOMING...BRINGING IN SOME DRYING AND REDUCED
CHANCES FOR TSTMS. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THURS
NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER MONTANA.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR MID JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT SNY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF
TSTMS IS QUITE SMALL SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20-30 KTS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM