Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/10/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

943 AM MST WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE PRESSURE ADVECTION ALONG THE 315 KELVIN ISENTROPIC
SURFACE. THE EDGE OF THIS ASCENT WAS INITIALLY MARKED BY A LINE OF
MID LEVEL...ACCAS...CLOUD EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED NW OF TUCSON IN THE AREA OF GREATEST PRESSURE ADVECTION AND
LIMITED CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS TYPE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION USUALLY DOES NOT PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORM LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE PREVIOUS
ASSESSMENT OF TSTORMS FORMING ON MOUNTAINS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
APPEARS ON TRACK BASED ON BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF
KTUS THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD
ESPECIALLY NEAR TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON THRU ABOUT 09/03Z. CLEAR
SKIES SOUTHWEST OF KTUS THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K FT
AGL NORTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH FEW TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING MAY CAUSE A FEW SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY -TSRA/-SHRA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY.
STILL ANTICIPATING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
TUCSON TO NOGALES. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS THINKING FOR
TODAY. MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST TO BUILD BACK TOWARD
THE WEST RESULTING IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SATURDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD/FRENCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

920 AM MST WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN USUAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONSOON SEASON...AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DESPITE THE LACK OF STORM ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHEARING WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS
ENCOUNTERED JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND THE
10K FT LAYER THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN ARC OF MORE INVIGORATED
ACCAS FROM TUCSON THROUGH WICKENBURG. MODEST ASCENT ALONG LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN
THIS SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING NORTHEAST. RECENT HRRR FORECASTS HAVE
CAPTURED THIS EVOLUTION AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY QUICK
MOVING...SHORT LIVED...AND REMAINING ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING FOR
MORE EXTENISVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...ANALYSIS OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN FAR SWRN IMPERIAL COUNTY SUPPORTS A VERY
SMALL AREA OF GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THIS AREA WEST OF EL CENTRO
THROUGH THE IN-KO-PAH GORGE ALONG I-8 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...JUSTIFYING A WIND ADVISORY FOR JUST THE
SMALL SOUTHWEST SEGMENT OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. WHILE STRONGER WINDS MAY
BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRADITIONALLY THE TIMING OF
STRONGEST WINDS SUGGESTS AROUND AND THE FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET WILL
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND LARGEST IMPACTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/513 AM MST WED JUL 8 2015/
TODAY...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS ADVECTED
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS WELL AS SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE LOW
IS ADVERTISED TO NUDGE EASTWARD A BIT TODAY AND A SUBTLE
PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERTS...MAINLY OVER VEF CWA. BOTH
NAM AND GFS DEPICT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TODAY
COMPARED TO TUESDAY BUT CAPE WILL BE LIMITED TO EASTERN ARIZONA WITH
GILA COUNTY BEING ONLY AREA IN OUR CWA WITH ANY POPS. LOCAL AND
NATIONAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN VORT
MAX OF THE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE MOHAVE DESERT REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NICE BULLSEYE OF Q FORCING WITH IT BUT AT
BEST IT ONLY BRUSHES EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS. TO
VARYING DEGREES...MODELS INDICATE A MOISTURE INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW. THUS POPS OVER OUR
EASTERNMOST AREAS ARE A BIT HIGHER. THE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. IN FACT...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. AS THE FIRST LOW QUICKLY
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS...TROUGHING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. THUS ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
BUT WITH EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS HAS
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ADVECTS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN
THE ECMWF. EVEN TAKING THE GFS AT FACE VALUE...1000-700MB MEAN MIXING
RATIOS LOOK BORDERLINE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MODEST FORECAST CAPE.
WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
IMPINGE UPON SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE A SITUATION WHERE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS AND BLOWING DUST WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT. OF
NOTE...THE GFS BRINGS A PERTURBATION/VORT MAX THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY VERSUS
SATURDAY BUT CANNOT PUT A LOT OF STOCK IN THAT SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING...TEMPS BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
FOR MONDAY THAN THE ECMWF...AND THUS MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT STILL
LOOKS BORDERLINE. THE GFS THEN SHOWS SOME DECLINE IN MOISTURE TUESDAY
AS THE COASTAL TROUGHING MOVES ASHORE AND THE RIDGE SAGS SOUTHWARD A
BIT. STILL NOT AS DRY AS ECMWF BUT ENOUGH SUCH THAT STORM ACTIVITY WOULD
BE MEAGER. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AT
MANY OF THE LOW DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PHOENIX AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT BY 20Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT
KIPL...WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 10 KT WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AND UNFAVORABLE
FOR EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND STORMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...TO MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SEASON SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...THOUGH COULD BEGIN MOVING
WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN A 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE DURING THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE TO A 15-25 PERCENT RANGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS
AND DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THIS TIME...THOUGH STRONGER
THAN USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ033.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

323 AM MST WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY. STILL
ANTICIPATING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM TUCSON TO
NOGALES. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS THINKING FOR TODAY.
MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY.
THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE WEST
RESULTING IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SATURDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED FROM KTUS VICINITY
EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD AFTER 08/18Z THRU ABOUT 09/03Z. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

759 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST ACROSS FRONT RANGE AND
ONTO THE PLAINS. SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE
STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
THEY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. MOST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVITY LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. VISIBLE STLT SHOWING SUFFICIENT CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. WL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST MESOETA
SHOWS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS FM ROUGHLY 09Z-
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING. NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD CAPES OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WITH VALUES OF 1400 TO 2200 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. DECENT
PW VALUES AS WELL...0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES. BUT NAM12 QG IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOWS DECENT DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WHICH MAY KEEP
THE AMS CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHICH WL WIN OUT BUT IT
DOES LOOK SUFFICIENT ENUF TO CAP THINGS. FOR NOW WL KEEP SCT
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS
NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...BUT EVERYTHING ELSE WOULD SUGGEST QUITE LIMITED
CONVECTION. STICKING WITH KEEPING ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL EVENTUALLY
BE SOME WEAK WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...AT LEAST BRINGING A
LITTLE LIFT TO HELP MARGINAL CONVECTION AND BRING SOME COOLING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS US NEAR 90 DURING THE WEEKEND THEN DROPPING
INTO THE 80S WITH SEASONAL POPS BY MID WEEK...AND THAT LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE DENVER AREA.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
09Z. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DENVER AREA. WILL MENTION FEW AT 2000
FEET FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...JUST ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY 21Z TO 03Z. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WIND WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

733 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING BRINGING
RAIN...AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY LEAVE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...RAIN NOW COVERED MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME OF IT
WAS MODERATE. SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN OUR REGION...EVEN
CLOUD TO CLOUD.

IT LOOKS AS THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A QCLS OVER
NE PA/NW NJ MIGHT STAY JUST MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
MEANWHILE THERE WAS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A RUMBLE
OR TWO...THAT PRODUCED SOME SERIOUS PONDING OF WATER OVER CHENANGO COUNTY.
THIS CELL LOOKS TO HEAD RIGHT INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY...THEN THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THE 18Z NAM ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS FEATURES...AND HAD A BULLS EYE OF OVER
2 INCHES NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AGAIN AWAY FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. WHILE THIS BULLS EYE MIGHT ACTUALLY WORK OUT FOR ONCE...WE BELIEVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH ALTHOUGH UNOFFICIALLY THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OVER AN INCH UPSTREAM IN CHENANGO COUNTY.

WE WILL HANDLE THIS COMPLEX WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR NOW...
SINCE OUR AREA HAD A LOT LESS RAINFALL BGM/S. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE THUNDERSTORMS
IN NW NJ COULD WORK TO ABOUT THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE...THE HRRR HAS THUS FAR
PERFORMED ABYSMALLY REGARDING THIS WHOLE RAINFALL EVENT.
IT GAVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO ALBANY PROPER
FOR THE WHOLE EVENT AND WE LIKELY HAVE MORE THAN THAT
ALREADY (EVEN WITHOUT THIS HEAVIER RAIN) MOVING IN.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...EXPECT RAIN...MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY
AT TIMES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH BRIEFLY.

SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IS THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE SHOWALTER
VALUES DOWN TO ABOUT -1.5 AND K INDICES TO AROUND 35. THE K INDEX
IS MEASUREMENT OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HOW MUCH RAIN COULD
FALL. THE PWAT VALUES WILL BE UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES.

ALSO...THIS AREA (AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL REGION) WILL BE UNDER THE
DIVERGENT AREA OF A 100 KT JET STREAK AT 250 MBS...ALONG WITH GOOD
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND IT LOOKS TO PULL AWAY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A LITTLE FOG.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...(LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN
ZONES).

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. ALOFT...WE WILL
STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST FUTURE
MCS COMPLEXES WELL TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE THOUGH TRAILING TO THE NORTH MIGHT BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
MOST OF THE TIME.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY...MID TO
UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S
TO LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WELL INTO THE 80S...NEAR 90 IN SOME AREAS...AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL WE GET THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
OF THE YEAR AT ALBANY? MAYBE OR MAYBE NOT.

THERE IS A DECENT CONSENSUS ON A SLOWLY DEVELOPING UPPER SYSTEM IN
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY APPROACHING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH A SURFACE PREFRONTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AS THERE IS LESS
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE AS TO WHEN AND IF THE FRONT TRACKS EAST AND
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT COULD
STALL OVER OUR REGION...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE ENTIRE PERIOD. OR...WE COULD
SEE A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE.

AT THIS TIME...BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ACKNOWLEDGING POTENTIAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY. SO...NOT INDICATING COOL WEATHER AND NOT SUGGESTING A
WASHOUT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LETTING EVERYONE BE AWARE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IF THERE ARE OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEK.

STILL... HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...SOME MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. THE LOW IS CURRENT MOVING ALONG THE PA/NY AND WILL SHOULD
REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z/FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PASSES BY. THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL IMPACT KGFL. A BATCH OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA IMPACTING KALB AND KPSF.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE RAIN WITH IFR OCCURRING
WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE LOW HEADS OFF TO OUR EAST AND THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX AND DRIER AIR IS DRAWN IN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY 12-13Z/FRIDAY THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

LINGERING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS GETTING
AROUND AN INCH FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
FURTHER NORTH.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN...WILL LEAVE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN TO BRING
DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OFF NEAR NORMAL...THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL.

EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL TRENDS WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT
HUMIDITY EVERY OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS EACH
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES THROUGH
300 AM.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
ITSELF WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND PWATS WILL BE THE HIGHEST. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING AN
INCH PER HOUR AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF ALBANY.

IF HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS...IT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND PERHAPS SOME RAPID RISES ON STREAMS AND EVEN SOME RIVERS.

THEREFORE WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY
IN MASSACHUSETTS...LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT AND
COLUMBIA... GREENE...ULSTER...AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NEW YORK
FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

720 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING BRINGING RAIN...AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY LEAVE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...RAIN NOW COVERED MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME OF IT
WAS MODERATE. SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN OUR REGION...
EVEN CLOUD TO CLOUD.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...EXPECT RAIN...MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY
AT TIMES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH BRIEFLY.

ALSO...THIS AREA (AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL REGION) WILL BE UNDER THE
DIVERGENT AREA OF A 100 KT JET STREAK AT 250 MBS...ALONG WITH GOOD
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE.

STILL... HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...SOME MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO BKN-OVC
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOWER CLOUDS AT 4-5 KFT AT
KPOU/KPSF THANKS TO A STALLED NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

LATER IN THE DAY TODAY...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. THE MODELS STILL AREN/T
HANDLING THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE VERY WELL...BUT IT APPEARS TO
BEGIN AT THE TERMINALS AT SOME POINT BETWEEN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE RAIN LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
KGFL...BUT THE OTHERS TERMINALS LOOK TO SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING. SFC BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS...AS THUNDER MAY
POTENTIALLY NEED TO BE INCLUDED AT SOME POINT THANKS TO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

WITHIN THE RAIN...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR
LEVELS FOR KALB/KPSF/KPOU. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AS WELL...SO IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE OCCUR FOR A PERIOD AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT/S
STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY FOR WHERE AND HOW LONG. RIGHT NOW...KPSF/KPOU
LOOK TO PROBABLY SEE SOME IFR...ALTHOUGH IT/S ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
KALB TOO. WILL INCLUDE SOME PROB30S FOR NOW...AND LATER TAF
ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER HANDLE THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THESE IFR CONDITIONS.

BEHIND THE RAINFALL...IT WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SO
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS
AND THEN FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS GETTING
AROUND AN INCH FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
FURTHER NORTH.

EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL TRENDS WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT
HUMIDITY EVERY OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS EACH
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

IF HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS...IT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND PERHAPS SOME RAPID RISES ON STREAMS AND EVEN SOME RIVERS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

215 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION. DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...A COLD HAS CROSSED MOST OF OUR REGION...
EXCEPT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE WERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
IN THIS REGION WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE WAS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE.
WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON OBS/THE LATEST HRRR AND
OTHER GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED 5-10 DEGREES...GENERALLY IN THE 60-65 RANGE...BUT STILL
AROUND 70 FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE.

WE TINKERED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT DID NOT CHANGE MUCH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS LOOK
FOR MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S (MOUNTAINS) TO LOWER
80S (CAPITAL REGION). A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...THE THREAT OF SHOWER
OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
80 ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
I-84...TWO WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG IT. THE FIRST AND WEAKER WAVE WAS BACK
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH..BUT COULD BRING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

THE NIGHT WILL START OUT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONE MORE AS THE FIRST WAVE APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 FAR NORTHERN AREAS...UPPER 50S CAPITAL REGION
TO LOWER AND EVEN MID 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL WORK A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHWARD TO
THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN (ESPECIALLY SOUTH)
...SIDE ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY SOUTH). LOOK FOR HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S...LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 BUT SURFACE AND EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED.

THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY ON. THERE WILL BE CLEARING. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING...BUT THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF BREEZE IN SOME
SECTIONS TO MITIGATE ITS FORMATION. FOR NOW...NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS JUST YET.

LOWS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AROUND 60 CAPITAL REGION
AND MID 50S FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

FINE WEATHER SHOULD BE THEME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND NIGHTS MAINLY CLEAR. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 80S ALBANY SOUTHWARD A BIT WARMER
SATURDAY...UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...MID TO UPPER 80S
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
I-84...TWO WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG IT. THE FIRST AND WEAKER WAVE WAS BACK
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH..BUT COULD BRING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN (ESPECIALLY SOUTH)
...SIDE ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY SOUTH). LOOK FOR HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S...LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 BUT SURFACE AND EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED.

LOWS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AROUND 60 CAPITAL REGION
AND MID 50S FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A WARM AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
OUT TO SEA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPS WILL BE LIFTED FROM THE PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
WARMING TO AS HIGH AS 16 DEGREES C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...SO IT WON/T BE OVERLY MUGGY QUITE YET.
LOWS ON SAT NIGHT LOOK MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WITH THE BROAD W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL PROBABLY BE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS SYSTEM MAY WIND UP CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN...DIGGING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US...SO A FEW DAY PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY POINT BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT/S MOST LIKELY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TIME...AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S FOR SUNDAY...BUT PROBABLY ONLY 70S
TO NEAR 80 FOR MON/TUES WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND.
DEWPOINTS WILL START TO CREEP UP INTO THE 60S MAKING IT FEEL A
LITTLE MUGGY AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE KPOU AREA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...WITH A
VFR CEILING BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AS
A FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG IT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CALM
WINDS FOR ALL SITES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP AROUND
KPOU AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS
THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 14Z...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
OUTLOOK...

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THE MUGGY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND DROP TO 30 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH TONIGHT...AND VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR FLOODING ON THE STILL
RIVER AT BROOKFIELD. VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THIS AREA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN
PLACE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

208 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS 10-15
KTS TODAY ON THE EAST COAST WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
COASTAL SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS THURS AM, SO VCSH WAS INSERTED. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AROUND DAWN. STORM
EVOLUTION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY ON THURSDAY, MAINLY INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE JUST OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DISSIPATING. EASTERLY FLOW PUTS
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WBZ HEIGHT LOWEST IN SEVERAL DAYS, INDICATIVE OF DRIER MIDLEVEL
AIR, WHICH COULD MAKE HAIL A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER IN
CONTRAST, 12Z RAOB MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE BELOW 6C/KM, WHICH
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM STRENGTH. REGARDLESS, WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS ON GULF COAST FOR THIS PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

AVIATION...

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KMIA/KOPF,
BUT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT MVFR CIGS
WILL LIFT. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
WITH PREDOMINATE EASTERLY FLOW, THUS VCTS WAS MAINTAINED FOR APF.
A TEMPO GROUP MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR APF AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SYNOPTIC
SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC PROVIDING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS.

BY THURSDAY A TUTT LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...UNDERNEATH THE STRONG
DEEP LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN
AIDE IN GENTLY PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS IT DOES...IT WILL ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO
COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO FILTER
IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AS PWATS PLUMMET AROUND 1.4 INCHES OR JUST BELOW...NEAR THE
10TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING AND ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FINALLY PUSHES WELL TO THE WEST AND
SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A BROAD H5 TROUGH TO
SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BECAUSE OF THIS
AND THE DEPARTURE OF UPPER RIDGING...FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THIS NEW FLOW PATTERN
ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS MAY
BE THE MORE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH
WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS
STREAMING INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE
PLACED VCSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AT ALL EAST COAST
SITES. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

MARINE...
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES TO THE WEST.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 90 79 91 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 90 / 30 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 80 91 / 30 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 93 75 93 / 30 50 30 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1000 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE JUST OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADEMOVINGG
INLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DISSIPATING. EASTERLY FLOW PUTS
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WBZ HEIGHT LOWEST IN SEVERAL DAYS, INDICATIVE OF DRIER MIDLEVEL
AIR, WHICH COULD MAKE HAIL A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER IN
CONTRAST, 12Z RAOB MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE BELOW 6C/KM, WHICH COULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM STRENGTH. REGARDLESS, WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS ON GULF COAST FOR THIS PM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 90 79 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 89 80 / 20 30 20 20
MIAMI 92 79 90 80 / 40 30 20 20
NAPLES 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

808 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 90 79 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 89 80 / 20 30 20 20
MIAMI 92 79 90 80 / 40 30 20 20
NAPLES 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

337 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SYNOPTIC
SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC PROVIDING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS.

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH
WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS
STREAMING INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE
PLACED VCSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AT ALL EAST COAST
SITES. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

.MARINE...
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES TO THE WEST.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 90 79 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 89 80 / 10 30 20 20
MIAMI 92 79 90 80 / 20 30 20 20
NAPLES 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

156 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT AFFECTED THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST HAVE MOSTLY ENDED. THERE IS ONE LARGE CELL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE METRO AREA OF SOUTHERN BROWARD
AND NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CELL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MIAMI-
DADE AND POSSIBLY BROWARD METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A CONVERGENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF GRAND BAHAMA OVER THE
NORTHEAST REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TUTT LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MEANDER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN GET STRETCHED
EAST/WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...OR AROUND THE 10TH-25TH PERCENTILE. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EACH MORNING BELOW THE INVERSION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. DRY AIR AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REGION. HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND EAST COAST TROUGHING TRIES TO DEVELOP.

MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS BELOW 3 FT WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 91 80 91 80 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 93 75 93 75 / 60 30 40 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

758 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A DRY AND WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST WITH MODEL PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 00Z
SPC WRF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WITH POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT. RISING THICKNESSES WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE
CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...WITH THE ONLY REAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BEING ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME EAST. DRY AND MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONTINUED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AT BEST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE UPPER 90S. EVEN WITH THE HIGH PUSHING FURTHER WESTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW
THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A
WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER IMPULSES...OR
SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POPS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL A DEGREE
OR SO EACH AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

628 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST WITH MODEL PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE FA WHILE THE 00Z SPC WRF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE HRRR WITH POPS AROUND 20. RISING THICKNESSES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET...LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MILD
LOWS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS FOR
POPS...WITH THE ONLY REAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME EAST. DRY
AND MILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONTINUED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AT BEST EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
CLOSE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 90S. EVEN WITH THE HIGH PUSHING FURTHER WESTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

354 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST WITH MODEL PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG
THE SEABREEZE BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE FA WHILE THE 00Z SPC
WRF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE HRRR WITH POPS AROUND 20. RISING THICKNESSES WILL PROMOTE
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. MILD LOWS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE
CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...WITH THE ONLY REAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BEING ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME EAST. DRY AND MILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS SHOW
SOME LOW-LEVEL MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
FOG. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE AT OGB WHERE THE ADDED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER VALLEY AND RECENT RAIN MAY HELP SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO A
DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. A FEW
STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BUT EXPECT OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF
THE FA WHILE THE 00Z SPC WRF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WITH POPS AROUND 20.
RISING THICKNESSES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S. BY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER IMPULSES...OR SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

943 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND
OREGON IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND OVER GEM AND PAYETTE COUNTIES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO FOCUSED NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE NEVADA
BORDER...AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NO MORNING
UPDATES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST UNDER
AN INCH ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH
WITH SOME STORMS AS WELL.

.AVIATION...VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE KBNO-KBOI-
KMYL. VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10KFT MSL...VARIABLE 5-
10KTS...THEN AFTER 09/06Z EAST AT 10-15 KTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PAYETTE/BOISE RIVER
BASINS FROM AROUND NEW PLYMOUTH TO GARDEN VALLEY AS OF 630
AM...MOVING EAST AROUND 7 MPH. LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED AROUND 612
AM 39 MILES NORTH OF BOISE NEAR BANKS. THESE WERE IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND WERE A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR THAT. ALSO THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED OVER 1000
J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND ALMOST AN INCH OF PWAT /0.91/ SO
UPDATED THUNDERSTORM ATTRIBUTES TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. /END UPDATE/. THERE WERE A FEW NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER EAST CENTRAL CAMAS COUNTY AROUND 2 AM MDT AND
STEENS MTN AROUND MIDNIGHT PDT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR SHOW
THE CENTRAL ID ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO PIH/S AREA BY 6 AM AND AN
INCREASE IN STORMS NEAR THE NV BORDER. WATERVAPOR IMAGE SHOWS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH NE OREGON AND THE ID PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS N NV LIFTING SLOWLY N. THIS MOIST
AXIS IS ON THE N FLANK OF A COASTAL LOW. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
THE TROUGH WILL GET AS FAR S AS KBKE-KMYL AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND THAT THE
MOIST AXIS WILL LIFT TO SRN PARTS OF OREGON AND IDAHO AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE NEARER THE
NV BORDER AND CENTRAL ID. STORMS AGAIN WILL HAVE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WORKING
WITH PWAT AROUND ONE INCH.

LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL UPPER LOW MOVES
INLAND...SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO...TO GENERALLY ACROSS KBNO-KBKE-KMYL THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY MILD IN THE 60S VALLEY AND 40S TO 50S
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AROUND
90 VALLEYS AND MID 70S TO 80S MTNS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
GREATEST THREAT PF STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE NECK OF THE COASTAL
TO CALIFORNIA LOW...ACROSS OREGON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 90-95TH
PERCENTILE AT BOISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE 10-
20KT SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS AND STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS AND A THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE STORM CHARACTER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SHEAR ALOFT AND THREATS WILL
MAINLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
ORZ636-637.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT

NWS BOISE ID

333 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PAYETTE/BOISE RIVER
BASINS FROM AROUND NEW PLYMOUTH TO GARDEN VALLEY AS OF 630
AM...MOVING EAST AROUND 7 MPH. LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED AROUND 612
AM 39 MILES NORTH OF BOISE NEAR BANKS. THESE WERE IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND WERE A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR THAT. ALSO THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED OVER 1000
J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND ALMOST AN INCH OF PWAT /0.91/ SO
UPDATED THUNDERSTORM ATTRIBUTES TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. /END UPDATE/. THERE WERE A FEW NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER EAST CENTRAL CAMAS COUNTY AROUND 2 AM MDT AND
STEENS MTN AROUND MIDNIGHT PDT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR SHOW
THE CENTRAL ID ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO PIH/S AREA BY 6 AM AND AN
INCREASE IN STORMS NEAR THE NV BORDER. WATERVAPOR IMAGE SHOWS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH NE OREGON AND THE ID PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS N NV LIFTING SLOWLY N. THIS MOIST
AXIS IS ON THE N FLANK OF A COASTAL LOW. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
THE TROUGH WILL GET AS FAR S AS KBKE-KMYL AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND THAT THE
MOIST AXIS WILL LIFT TO SRN PARTS OF OREGON AND IDAHO AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE NEARER THE
NV BORDER AND CENTRAL ID. STORMS AGAIN WILL HAVE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WORKING
WITH PWAT AROUND ONE INCH.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 90-95TH
PERCENTILE AT BOISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE 10-
20KT SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS AND STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS AND A THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE STORM CHARACTER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SHEAR ALOFT AND THREATS WILL
MAINLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SE OF A LINE FROM
KBOI-KSNT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBOI-KMYL THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOUNTAINS NEAR KBKE. SURFACE WINDS...12KT OR LESS...EXCEPT ERRATIC
GUSTS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...GENERALLY EASTERLY 5-10KT.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
ORZ636-637.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

324 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

1021MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
EVIDENCED BY 08Z/3AM DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...REACHING SAINT LOUIS
BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS ALREADY SHOW
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...HOWEVER
PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY NE FLOW AS IT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY
FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. MOST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY. AS
THE AIRMASS MOISTENS...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE
AT A MINIMUM. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 60S. IN FACT...THESE
READINGS WILL LIKELY BREAK PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE HEART OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...LOCATIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL PUNCH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA
COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 4KM NAM. HAVE THEREFORE HIT THUNDER HARDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...WITH JUST ISOLATED MENTION
ELSEWHERE. TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY/TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 1.50 INCHES...BUT WILL BE LIGHTER NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE
WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. HAVE HUNG ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN CASE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
STRONGEST WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS WEST
OF I-55 OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER EAST...POPS DECREASE TO JUST
LOW CHANCE ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER EXACT STRENGTH OF RIDGE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IT
STILL APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MAIN
STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION MAY BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM THE
PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD AND A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF
SITES WHILE LARGE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL IL NE.
6-8K FT CEILINGS AT SPI AND DEC WHILE CEILINGS DROP OFF TO
1.5-4.5K FROM MACOMB TO LITCHFIELD TO EFFINGHAM SW. THESE LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK NE
ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING OVERNIGHT...REACHING SPI IN 1-2 HOURS AND
TO I-74 LATE TONIGHT. HRRR AND RAP MODELS HAVE TRENDED 1-2 HOURS
QUICKER WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING BACK NE BUT HESITANT ABOUT
THIS DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO MID 50S THAT HAS ADVECTED
INTO CENTRAL IL ON NE FLOW. EVENTUALLY BROUGHT IN IFR TO LOW END
MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT OR WED MORNING WITH VSBYS 2-4 MILES IN
RAIN SHOWERS DURING WED AND WED EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD
PUSHED SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND SE MO AND EXTENDED TO WEAK
1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR TX/OK BORDER. LOW PRESSURE TO
TRACK NE ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING WED EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWER EXPECTED WED/WED EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF I-72 (SOUTH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK) SO WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
ENE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURNING
DURING OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT. AREAS FROM GALESBURG...PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON WILL LIKELY
STAY DRY MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL RAIN SHOWERS HOLDING OFF TIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NE CWA WILL ALLOW
COOLER LOWS IN LOW TO MID 50S FROM LINCOLN NE WHILE MILDER LOWER
60S FOR LOWS IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE SKIES STAY CLOUDY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO SE MO AND CONNECTED
TO 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR OK/TX
BORDER. LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK TRACK INTO NE OK/SW OK WED MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO RETURN SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY WED AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WED AND WED NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL 1 INCH
RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH OF I-72.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WELL DEFINED MCV FEATURE NOW OFF INTO INDIANA. STILL SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES AROUND 80
DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LAWRENCEVILLE...BUT HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA NEAR CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE.
RATHER THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT LOW CLOUDS
GIVING WAY INTO MORE DIURNAL-TYPE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

STILL QUITE A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOWING AN OVERALL NORTHWARD SHIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WILL LINGER CHANCE
POP`S SOUTH OF I-70 THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING THEM BACK TO THE
LIKELY (60%) RANGE AFTER 3 AM. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS
I-72 BY SUNRISE...BUT WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA DRY
OVERNIGHT. THAT AREA WILL SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH OF PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON. LOWS 55-60
WILL BE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH LOWER 60S
SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST
WITH PW VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WED TO WED NIGHT PERIOD. GROUND IS VERY SOGGY STILL AND EVEN
THOUGH FFG GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 1.8 TO 2.3 INCHES IN AN HR FOR FLASH
FLOODING, AM CONCERNED THAT THESE NUMBER MAY BE A TAD TOO HIGH. SO
THINK WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A PROBLEM. SO...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR THE WHOLE CWA. MODELS PLACE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WHILE WPC PLACES
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-72. THEREFORE WHOLE CWA IS IN THE
WATCH.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE LOW PRESS AREA...BUT ALL FORECAST A
SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL IL. AFTER THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
THROUGH THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN...BUT A FRONT WILL LAY
OUT IN THE SOUTHERN IL AREA WHICH WILL KEEP A CHC OF POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST IL FOR THUR. THIS SEMI-DRY BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. GUIDANCE LOOKS
TOO COOL...EVEN WITH PCPN AND CLOUD COVER ALL DAY TOMORROW. GUIDANCE
LOOKS BETTER FOR THUR AND FRI.

FURTHER OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD BRING DEFINITE DRY PERIODS INTO
THE FORECAST...MAINLY DURING THE WEEKEND. ANY FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH AND MAY ONLY EFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. SO LOOKING
AT SAT AND SUN AS BEING DRY WITH SAT NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN IN
THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BREAK DOWN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE RETURN FOR MORE PCPN FOR MON AND TUE.

TEMPS WILL GET WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

700 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE
FRONT AND PUSHES INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SNEAK ACROSS UNDER THE RIDGE BUILDING
DOWN OVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK LOOK BRIEFLY DRIER. HOWEVER...THE RAINY PATTERN APPEARS
TO PICK BACK UP BY NEXT WEEK WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

AT THIS HOUR (3 PM) WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AS NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS
PREDICTED...THERE IS GOING TO BE AT LEAST A 3-4 HOUR LULL IN
ACTIVITY WHICH THE HRRR DID AN EXCELLENT JOB OF DEPICTING EARLIER
THIS MORNING. THIS MODEL SHOWED WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON
THE RADAR MOSAIC AND PER TRENDS UPSTREAM...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WSW TO NE FROM AROUND 20-21Z THROUGH 00Z EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEN RAIN CHANCES LOOK EVEN GREATER...IF THAT IS EVEN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. MOST CERTAINLY WETTER WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE BEGINNING TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING AFTER 00Z. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WHICH GOES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS VERY
NECESSARY FOR THE AREA AND THUS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
SECOND...STRONGER SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. PWATS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE...EASILY IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH A VERY SATURATED COLUMN WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERING THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
GOOD FORCING MECHANISM. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ALL NIGHT THOUGH
AND GENERALLY CUT BACK ON ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...PER GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS/CONSISTENCY AND NOW FORECAST
PERSISTENCE...ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH 100 PERCENT POPS MOST LOCATIONS.
SAVE FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF AS OF LATE.

AS ONGOING FLOODING MAY STILL BE OCCURRING...THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO STOP FALLING AS THE SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE FORCING EXITS
BY THURSDAY MORNING TO THE EAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS
TONIGHT TOWARD STEADY STATE WET BULB VALUES FOR MID TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THURSDAY MORNING RAIN SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
HIGH POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AND TREND POPS
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE PLAN IS STILL TO END THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT 18Z THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE EXPECTED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD HAVE ENDED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IF CONDITIONS
TREND TOWARD NEEDED AN EARLIER EXPIRATION TIME...THIS CAN BE
ADJUSTED LATER BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO STICK WITH THIS EXPIRATION
TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RESIDUAL OR REMAINING FLOODING TROUBLE
SPOTS. FOR TEMPERATURES TRENDED COOLER FOR HIGHS THAN
MAVMOS RANGING FROM LOW 70S (NORTH) TO 78 (SOUTH).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER FRIDAY DOES NOT LOOK AS DRY AS A WEAK SYSTEM IS STILL
TRYING TO RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HAD TO BUMP UP POPS TO JUST SHY OF LIKELY ON FRIDAY. WEAKER PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AND CREATE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ALBEIT THE CHANCES REMAIN WEAK. FOR TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

ECMWF AND GFS LOOK GOOD TO START OUT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. REACHING
INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF INDIANA. THE MODELS DIVERGE BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DROP SSEWD OVER IL/IN FOR
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE THAN IS THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE WILL
DROP OFF AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED. IF THE GFS BECOMES THE
RIGHT SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT.

IN ANY CASE...LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
COMING UP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOOKS LIKE THAT
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AT
ALL TAF SITES...WITH CEILINGS IN IFR CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL PASS CLOSE TO...BUT
NORTH OF...LAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AND AFTER THE LEADING WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH...LEAVING ALL SITES IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPORARY LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. VICINITY SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT OUT OF THE LOW. CEILINGS WILL THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...MMB/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

434 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 082100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

INITIAL BAND OF LIFT/PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE KIND
VICINITY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY LULL
IN THE RAINFALL.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RATHER STRONG LIFT WILL BE MOVING
IN LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 090300Z-090600Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW
SPREADING OVER IL AND WILL BE MOVING OVER INDIANA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THUS...LOOKS LIKE IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR SHOULD BE THE
RULE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOR KIND AND KBMG...WITH MAINLY IFR
FOR KHUF AND KLAF.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA TONIGHT AND GIVE AN
INCREASE OF SOME -TSRA WITH IFR/LIFR CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THU
MORNING FOR KIND/KBMG AS THERE WILL BE SOME COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR COME AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ENE OUT
OF THE AREA.

LOOKS LIKE THEN THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE NOON.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

341 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LOOKS LIKE THEN THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE NOON.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WET WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING
INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE AN IDEAL SET UP FOR RAIN. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

1400Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MADE A FEW
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS BOTH HERE AND
UPSTREAM.

FIRST PULLED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AND ONLY LEFT IN ISOLATED STORMS
FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THUNDER EARLY TODAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION WITH SUPPORT FROM A WEAKLY SHEARED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR...AND HEAD
FOR INDIANA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POPS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS THINKING IN KEEPING WITH 100 PERCENT POPS ALL AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE POINTING TO A LULL IN ACTIVITY...THE HRRR POSSIBLY DEPICTS
THIS THE BEST WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WSW TO NE
FROM AROUND 20-21Z THROUGH 00Z. THEN RAIN CHANCES LOOK EVEN
GREATER (IF THAT IS EVEN POSSIBLE) AND DEFINITELY WETTER WITH A
MORE POTENT WAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING
AFTER 00Z.

OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE TO INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THINKING IS THAT THE WARM RAIN PROCESS TYPE EVENT FROM YESTERDAY
(TUESDAY) WILL PLAY OUT SIMILARLY TODAY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
NOT REACH THE ZERO DEGREE LINE UNTIL UPWARDS OF OVER 15K FT. THIS
MEANS THERE WILL BE NO ICE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE LAYER TO INTERFERE
WITH THE RAIN PROCESSES...AND THIS IN TURN MEANS THAT HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS THAN EVEN THE MOST ROBUST MODELS ARE PREDICTING ARE VERY
LIKELY. AND HENCE THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
TECHNICALLY BEGINS AT NOON TODAY AND GOES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH STILL LOOKS *VERY* NECESSARY FOR THE AREA
AND THUS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SOME
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST AND ALL
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

AGAIN WE HAVE A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. GFS AND
NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PUSHING IN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HE
SOUTH BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
QUICKLY SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH PRECIPITATBLE WATER ONCE AGAIN
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW GOOD LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS ONLY MARGINAL
LIFT...HOWEVER SOME VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE IN
PLACE...OVER 8-9 K/KG THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE COOLER
AND DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE FOR A
BIT...OVERRUNNING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
THUS WILL BE TREND POPS TOWARD 100 AGAIN TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN
MAVMOS...CLOSER TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS AND OVER SATURATED
IN OTHERS DUE TO RAIN FALL YESTERDAY...IN COMBINATION WITH RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH STARTING LATE
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

WITH ONGOING RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WE PUSH INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO A SECOND SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. AGAIN..PWATS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE...GFS
PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES BY 06Z THURS...AMID A SATURATED COLUMN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION THOUGH 600 MB...WHERE THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE. THIS IS IDEAL FOR WARM RAIN
PROCESSES..PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. FURTHER ALOFT...200MB LEVEL
SHOWS GOOD FORCING ARRIVING AS INDIANA FINDS ITSELF IN A RIGHT
REAR JET SECTION. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AGAIN SHOWS MODERATE
LIFT ALONG WITH A VERY HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OVER 10 G/KG. BY 06Z
NAM TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A VERY MOIST COLUMN AND VERY STRONG
LIFT...NEAR 20 -UBAR/S. SUMMING UP ALL THIS STUFF...WE HAVE LOTS
OF MOISTURE...AND VERY STRONG FORCING. AGAIN WILL TREND TOWARD 100
POPS...WITH A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AS ONGOING FLOODING MAY STILL BE
OCCURRING AND THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO STOP FALLING AS THE
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE FORCING EXITS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO
THE EAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT TOWARD STEADY STATE
WET BULB VALUES.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...AT 12Z THURSDAY...RAIN MAY STILL FALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE FORCING DEPARTS...HOWEVER THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT DEPARTING AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW A TOP DOWN DRYING AS
EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH POPS ON THURSDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST...BUST TREND POPS LOWER AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WILL PLAN ON ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT 18Z
THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO GO COMPLETELY
DRY...BUT SUGGEST UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AS THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME RIDGE RIDING
ENERGY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES. REALLY
WANT TO TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. WILL TREND TOWARD LOW CHC POPS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A
BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LOOKS LIKE THEN THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE NOON.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1242 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

1400Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MADE A FEW
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS BOTH HERE AND
UPSTREAM.

THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SOME
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST AND ALL
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FORCING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH. AS
A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL COME DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO INDIANA ON SUNDAY EVENING.
SO...PRECIPIATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH PLENTIFUL WARM ADVECTION AT
THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL SUBSIDE BACK TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY THOUGH AS
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE
AREA.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LOOKS LIKE THEN THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE NOON.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1119 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CENTRERED OVER WESTERN MO AT THIS TIME MOVING TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO INDIANA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
RESULT IN MODERATE...MAYBE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOOKING AT SPC SHARP
SOUNDING ANALYSES THIS MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT KILX
IS 1.64 INCHES...AT KILN IS AT 1.86 INCHES...BUT KSGF IN SOUTHWEST
MO WHERE THE SYSTEM IS VALUES ARE 2.07 INCHES. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMING FROM SOUTHWEST MO ON NOSE OF
35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
CONTENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AGAIN WITH OVER 1 INCH/HOUR
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MO ENEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA JUST NORTH
OF THE OH RIVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE TRACK THAT MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS AND
HRRR INDICATE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND COMES IN AFTER 09/00Z.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

1400Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MADE A FEW
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS BOTH HERE AND
UPSTREAM.

THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SOME
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST AND ALL
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

OCCASIONAL LIFR...MOSTLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AT KIND AS VISIBILITIES ARE DOWN TO A MILE AND
CEILINGS ARE AT 900 FT AGL. LOOKS LIKE THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
NORM FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES FROM MO INTO
INDIANA THRUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO SOUTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO TAF SITES
BEFORE MID-MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING
FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THIS MORNING...BUT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES
CLOSER AND FORCING STRENGTHENS...SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE
INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN KIND TAF PERIOD AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS BY TOMORROW MORNING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1114 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

1400Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MADE A FEW
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS BOTH HERE AND
UPSTREAM.

OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE TO INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK THE WARM RAIN PROCESS TYPE EVENT FROM YESTERDAY (TUESDAY)
WILL PLAY OUT SIMILARLY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT REACH THE
ZERO DEGREE LINE UNTIL UPWARDS OF OVER 15K FT...WHICH MEAN THERE
WILL BE NO ICE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE LAYER TO INTERFERE WITH THE
RAIN PROCESSES. AND THIS IN TURN MEAN MOST LIKELY THAT HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS THAN EVEN THE MOST ROBUST MODELS ARE PREDICTING ARE VERY
LIKELY. AND HENCE THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
TECHNICALLY BEGINS AT NOON TODAY AND GOES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH STILL LOOKS VERY NECESSARY FOR THE AREA AND
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SOME
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST AND ALL
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN KIND TAF PERIOD AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES IMPROVE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1030 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.MESO DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE
TO THE OHIO RIVER. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING COOLER...NORTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN TO THE 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MEANWHILE...JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT VERY
MOIST AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S REMAINED IN PLACE. LOOKING AT
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHED
FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
WAS FOUND WITHIN THIS STREAM...OVER OKLAHOMA...PUSHING NORTHEAST.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN KIND TAF PERIOD AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES IMPROVE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.

.MESO DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS IFR CONDITIONS
ARE REPORTED AT MOST SITES. KHUF ONLY ONE RIGHT NOW AT VFR...BUT
LOOKING OVER INTO IL THERE ARE VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 5 MI WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN. KIND JUST WENT DOWN TO 1.5 MI...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
IFR...MAYBE LIFR OCCASIONALLY...FOR SOME SITES TODAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN KIND TAF PERIOD AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES IMPROVE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

1930Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADAS. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH AZ WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS OK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT
WAS OBSERVED FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO.

THE NAM AND RAP HAVE TRENDED TO KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE FROM THIS
MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS KEPT THE PRECIP
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH. EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING, THINK THE SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST TAKING THE FORCING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS EVENING. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WE CLEAR OUT, TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE LOW LYING
AREAS. FOR FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM AZ MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
AND HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM
DEVELOP SOME REASONABLE INSTABILITY, SO THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POP UP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK SO AM NOT
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT MAY BE. ALSO MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST
SKILL IN HANDLING THESE WEAK WAVES KICKING OUT, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE HEAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CO ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA,
DEEPENING THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ALL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEST TO
EAST WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS AND NE BORDER. THE INCREASING LLJ
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE CENTERED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, HIGHEST NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
25 KTS. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS STRONG MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB ADVECTS TEMPS TO THE UPPER 20S C INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS. AT THIS TIME, HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS
INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER 90S FURTHER EAST. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S, BELIEVE
HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR
SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY VARY BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON HOW WELL WE
CAN MIX OUT THE LOW 70 DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX
HEAT INDICES FROM 103 TO 106 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BOARDER. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WESTERN KANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO
BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 90S UP
TO 101 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES THROUGHOUT THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 100 DEGREES, POSSIBLY UP TO 105 IN SOME AREAS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. CONDITIONS SEEM
REASONABLE FOR LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES FROM VFR TO LIFR SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE.
WENT WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS FROM 07-15Z, WITH VFR PREVAILING AFTER
15Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z TOMORROW, HOWEVER,
BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY TERMINALS TO SEE RAIN WILL BE
TOWARD 00Z DUE TO THIS, HAVE LEFT CHANCES FOR VCTS OUT OF THIS TAF
PACKAGE.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN/HELLER
AVIATION...HELLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1233 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

FOR TODAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
STARTING TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE ROCKIES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. RAP SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY,
AND LATE DAY CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH BETTER SHEAR AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY BEING LOCATED
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN LATE DAY
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND FORCING EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPROVE NEAR THE NOSE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE WITH THIS SHIFTING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION NORTHWARD SO WILL KEEP THE TREND. THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF DODGE
CITY. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE OVER
EASTERN/NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION,
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
NAM CONTINUES TO ANY SUGGEST ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHILE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND HAS ONGOING
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY JUST NORTH OF GARDEN
AND DOGE CITY. OVERNIGHT HAZARD FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

ON THURSDAY ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW SOON GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS PERSISTENCE ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY ON THURSDAY
GIVEN WHERE THE 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOCATED AT 12Z
THURSDAY. DID TRIM CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

CLOUD COVER, ONGOING CONVECTION, AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ALL UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
WILL BE STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE
DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WHERE SOME AFTERNOON SUN DOES DEVELOP THE HIGHS COULD
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80.

A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL SET UP LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CONVECTION INITIATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG OR EVEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN
RETROGRADE/REDEVELOP FURTHER WEST. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH EVEN A FEW 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES BEING
POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BUT BUT NOT ABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A LATE DAY ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORM SOMEWHERE IN
WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
CLOUDS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET CREATING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 64 83 66 / 10 50 50 30
GCK 80 64 82 66 / 20 60 40 40
EHA 80 64 88 65 / 40 60 40 40
LBL 79 65 88 67 / 30 60 40 40
HYS 80 63 78 65 / 20 70 70 50
P28 79 67 85 69 / 10 60 60 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

600 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

FOR TODAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
STARTING TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE ROCKIES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. RAP SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY,
AND LATE DAY CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH BETTER SHEAR AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY BEING LOCATED
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN LATE DAY
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND FORCING EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTERM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME BKN050
BY 18Z. SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSRA IN
THE 02-05Z TIME FRAME FOR KDDC/KGCK. WINDS WILL BE SE 5-10 KT THIS
MORNING AND INCREASE 10-15 KT BY 18Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 64 83 66 / 0 50 50 30
GCK 80 64 82 66 / 0 60 40 40
EHA 84 64 88 65 / 40 60 40 40
LBL 82 65 88 67 / 20 60 40 40
HYS 80 63 78 65 / 0 70 70 50
P28 80 66 85 69 / 0 60 60 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

249 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

FOR TODAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
STARTING TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE ROCKIES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. RAP SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY,
AND LATE DAY CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH BETTER SHEAR AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY BEING LOCATED
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN LATE DAY
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND FORCING EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTERM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY MID DAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AT GCK AND DDC AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 64 82 67 / 20 60 60 30
GCK 82 64 82 66 / 30 70 30 30
EHA 83 64 85 66 / 50 80 30 30
LBL 83 65 85 67 / 50 70 40 30
HYS 80 63 79 66 / 20 60 60 50
P28 81 66 85 69 / 30 60 60 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

207 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

FOR TODAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
STARTING TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE ROCKIES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. RAP SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY,
AND LATE DAY CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH BETTER SHEAR AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY BEING LOCATED
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN LATE DAY
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND FORCING EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPROVE NEAR THE NOSE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE WITH THIS SHIFTING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION NORTHWARD SO WILL KEEP THE TREND. THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF DODGE
CITY. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE OVER
EASTERN/NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION,
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ANY SUGGEST ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT HAZARD FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BE CONFINED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME FRAME AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH SITS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA. MODELS THEN SUGGEST
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES WESTWARD AND A DISTURBANCE RIDES UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE. CLIMBING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN THE 80S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO START OUT IN
THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

SOME DECENT ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT THERE TODAY. BUT
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER A
BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TOTALLY DISSIPATING. WILL MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND BRING THEM IN LINE WITH
HOURLY TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR RETURNS.
NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER LINE OF
STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THIS
CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS TO EXTRAPOLATE
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAKING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA FELT GUIDANCE...AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL
LATELY IS PROBABLY TOO PESSIMISTIC. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE
FORECAST AND ALSO DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG A BIT LATER THAN
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WAITING FOR DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
AND UNTIL BETTER CLEARING OCCURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE VALLEY AREAS THOUGH TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FRIDAY. BUT AS LONG AS THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

545 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO LMK...WILL BE ENDING THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SHORT-
LIVED...AND NOT THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS NEEDED TO WARRANT THE
WATCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS THROUGH 06Z.

THERE IS QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
ADVERTISED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER ARKANSAS...AND
MISSOURI IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE THAT FAR BEHIND.

THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE
00Z-06Z PERIOD. IN BOTH CASES...THE CONVECTION REALLY WEAKENS...IF
NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATES...AS IT REACHES SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEST KENTUCKY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN
ACTIVITY...AND SPARES MOST OF THE AREA FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF.

TRIED TO USE THE NAM/HRRR SOLUTIONS AS A GUIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP...SO
THE NORTHWEST SEGMENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
06Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.

FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS ALL DRAPE THE FRONT ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE NAM DEVELOPS
AND HOLDS ONTO WEAKER CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE FRONT
THURSDAY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO THE CONVECTION FOR AWHILE. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND THAT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE A SMALL POP FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE GETTING HOT BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

ECMWF, GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SLOWLY SLIDING WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, MOVING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. MODELS ALL
SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED TROF GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RETURN TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF OF COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AND EXPANDING SOUTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR INTO OUR
REGION. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTHEAST, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAINTAINED GENERAL THEME OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH NEARBY
BOUNDARY YIELDING TSRA CHANCE ESP N/W LATER TONIGHT
(KCGI/KEVV)...THEN DIURNALLY TMRW ALL TERMINALS AS IT IS STILL IN
THE VICINITY. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE GENERAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS
WITH TIME AND MOVE INTO MVFR IF/AS PCPN OCCURS. SIMILAR WITH VSBYS
IF RESTRICTIONS OCCUR.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>111.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>087.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ004-005.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

309 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE GETTING HOT BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

AS THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTHEAST, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE WARM FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF KEVV...AND MAY TAKE AWHILE TO
PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AT
KEVV...IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT...BUT A SOUTH
WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT LIKELY...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO. TS MOST LIKELY AT KCGI LATE THIS EVENING AS A DECAYING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
NOT SURE IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OR REMAIN
ACTIVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD VEER TO WESTERLY IN THE MORNING...AND MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE
LEFT OVER FRONT...MAINLY NEAR KPAH AND KOWB THURSDAY MORNING.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>111.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>087.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ004-005.

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

342 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH REGION STAYING DRY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT W/A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN MAINE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MAINE PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE NAM12 MESOCALE MODEL
ALONG W/THE HRRR 3KM MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS ALTHOUGH
THE TIMING WAS OFF BY 1 HOUR OR SO. LATEST LAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED
THINGS TO BE PRETTY STABLE. PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES RESIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS SETS UP THROUGH MIDDAY
ALLOWING. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KTS IS THERE. THEREFORE, BASED ON
THE SHEAR AND HIGH PWATS, SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING
COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED W/THE
FRONT, SO DECIDED TO YANK THE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA
COULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE W/THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF AS WINDS
VEER TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE COLUMN IS FORECAST TO
START DRYING OUT ABOVE 850 MBS BY 18Z OR SO. LAPSE RATES ARE
MEAGER AT BEST FOR INSTABILITY(6.0 C/KM). ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY
ISOLATED TSTMS FOR EASTERN HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. NO
ENHANCED WORDING. MAX QPF FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS BE AROUND 0.25
INCHES W/LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS GO WNW W/GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
CLEAR TONIGHT AND COOLER AND LESS HUMID W/WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS
HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT ON TEMPERATURE.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINE SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ON THURSDAY AND WILL
LEAD TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DOWN EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND
DEVELOPING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S DOWN EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AT NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING W/THE EXCEPTION
OF FVE(MVFR). EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO HAVE IFR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO MVFR. KBGR AND KBHB WILL HANG ON
TO IFR A WHILE LONGER AND THEN MVFR AS THEY WILL BE S OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON W/SW WINDS
VEERING TO A WNW DIRECTION. GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY NIGHT TIME FOG COULD
RESULT IN LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS ON THE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT ON
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

131 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED DRYING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO NRN LOWER MI SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY FLOW
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH UPPER MI. THIS HAS BROUGHT COOL AIR INTO
THE AREA WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S. VIS LOOP SHOWED AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF BU MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILLL BRING VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. EXPECT TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WAS INCLUDED.

WED...SUNSHINE WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 800 MB WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE PRIMARILY
TEMPS THRU FRI AND THEN POPS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
RIDING OVER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS/ASSOCIATED WARM FNT IN THE
UPR MIDWEST. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THRU THE LONGER TERM AS
THE UPR RDG BLDS OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR W
THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS NEXT WEEK...COOLER WX MAY RETURN THEN.

WED NGT/THU...DISTURBANCE RIDING THRU THE FASTER NRN BRANCH FLOW
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRAG A WEAK LO PRES TROF/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH ACROSS THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF LINGERING SFC HI PRES
RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THE BULK
OF THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
NW ONTARIO AND THERE WL BE ONLY MARGINAL MSTR INFLOW INTO THE UPR
LKS AHEAD OF THE TROF...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA. A
BIT STRONGER WSW FLOW AND HIER PWAT APRCHG AN INCH WL MAKE FOR A
MUCH WARMER NGT ON WED NGT. WITH H85 TEMPS ON THU FCST IN THE 13-14C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS ON THU WL REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S AWAY FM LK
MODERATION.

THU NGT/FRI...UNDER REBOUNDING UPR HGTS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV
PASSING INTO QUEBEC AND N OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...SFC HI
PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LKS WL DOMINATE UPR MI WX AND BRING DRY
CONDITIONS. WSW FLOW ARND THE SFC HI TO THE S AND H85 TEMPS RISING
TO ABOUT 15-17C BY 00Z SAT SUPPORT A SLOW WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS
ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S AT SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FM MAINLY LK
MI COOLING...EVEN IF THERE IS AN INCRS IN HI CLD AS SOME MODELS HINT
TO THE N OF A WARM FNT DRIFTING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST.

WEEKEND...BLDG UPR RDG CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY W INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHRTWV RIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FNT SITUATED IN THE UPR MIDWEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV/LOCATION OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FNT AND AXIS OF PCPN. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z/12Z
ECMWF SHOWED A FARTHER S LOCATION OF THE FNT/PCPN WHILE THE 00Z
CNDN/12Z GFS MODELS FCST A FARTHER N POSITION AND RETURN OF
SHOWERS/TS AS EARLY AS LATE FRI NGT. THESE FARTHER N MODELS ALSO
INDICATE H85 TEMPS WL BE AT LEAST NEAR 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES ON LATE PERIOD/WARM SEASON FCST DETAILS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR RDG AXIS AMPLIFIES IN THE PLAINS...
TREND FOR THE UPR FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW MAY ALLOW CNDN HI
PRES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPR LKS AND PUSH COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR TO
THE S. BUT THERE ARE SGNFT DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THESE
EVENTS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY BRING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TS ON MON/TUE BEFORE THE STRONGER COLD FROPA...SO WL HOLD
ON TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. BASED ON THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ON TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT A LAYER
OF SMOKE ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY.

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AS HI PRES APPROACHES THE LAKE THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
UNDER 20 KTS. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER
STABILITY TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMER DOMINATING THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

951 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME AS
IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR AS WELL AS RAP AND ECWMF, KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE AND
HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF I-70. SO CANCELLED A PORTION OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS ACTUALLY BEEN PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING, BUT DO
EXPECT IT TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH LATE TONIGHT. SO MOST AREAS TO
SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

BYRD
&&

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT. MCV ORIGINATING
FROM A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THIS AFTN ALONG THE UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW AND
PASS THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NE OK/SE
KS/SW MO WILL SPREAD NE THRU THE EVNG IN ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
MEANWHILE, THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY CURRENTLY LAYED OUT FROM NE
OK ACROSS STHRN MO AND STHRN IL AND ON INTO THE OH VLY WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE MCV. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN NORTH AS WELL. INDICATIONS ARE IS
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE I44 CORRIDOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FCSTS SO WILL MOVE UP THE START TIME OF A PORTION OF THE
FFA ACROSS CNTRL MO TO 2Z/9PM. MCV SHIFTS NE OF THE FA FRI MRNG.

.LONG TERM: (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FOR THE WKND. THE
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BNDRY DOESN`T GET TOO FAR NORTH OF THE CWA BUT
FAR ENOUGH THAT A HOT/STICKY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND DPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-5000 J/KG
RANGE. A SHORT WAVE SHOULD INDUCE ANOTHER TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS IA
FRI NIGHT WHICH MAY DROP SE SAT MRNG ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY
AFFECTING NTHRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHRAS/TSTMS SHOULD GET GOING SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A BIT FARTHER
NORTH AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT THE FA ATTM. A DIURNAL THREAT
OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WKND...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NTHRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU THE WKND CLOSER TO THE
BNDRY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS ON SUN THAN SAT DUE TO THE
BNDRY LIFTING FURTHER N AND MID LVL TEMPS INCREASING. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A DECENT GRADIENT WRT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT NE OF THE STL
METRO AREA DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

THE WET PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LVL RIDGE SHIFTS W ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE FA GETS BACK INTO NW FLOW WITH ANOTHER FROPA ON TUE. THE BNDRY
STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE KS/OK, MO/AR, KY/TN BORDER
WED. THE BNDRY IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK N LATE WED NIGHT/THU IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF AND DVLPNG MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER BNDRY APPROACHES THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL OFF FROM THE VALUES EXPERIENCED THIS WKND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONAL IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 NEXT WEEK DUE TO 850
TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

2%
&&

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE TAIL END OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL
TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS TO MVFR DOWN SOUTH, WITH POCKETS
OF IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH WE WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS AND FOG
DEVELOPING. THINK IFR CEILINGS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE SECOND WAVE OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI WILL LIKELY LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON FRIDAY WITH
CEILINGS RISING TOWARD THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT LAMBERT THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER 06Z.
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AFTER
06Z, ALTHOUGH AM NOT CERTAIN ON THE TIMING. ONCE CEILINGS DO DROP,
I THINK IT WILL STAY DOWN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO LIFT THE CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT RIGHT NOW THE CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ON THE
TERMINAL LOOK PRETTY LOW.

CARNEY
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-
WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR JEFFERSON MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR RANDOLPH IL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-
MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

$$
WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

359 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. THE LATEST RAP RUN HAS BACKED OFF THE INSTSABILITY,
BOTH IN NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH, AND IN
MAGNITUDE. REGARDLESS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE NOSES UP INTO OUR CWFA
FROM NEAR ELLINGTON UP TO SALEM. 200-300 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM HELICITY
AND AROUND 100 M2/S2 0-1KM HELICITY IS PLENTY OF SHEAR TO PROMOTE
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
ALONG WITH WANING DIURNAL HEATING. TRULY WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
GET A TORNADO WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER, BUT I WOULDN`T
THINK THE THREAT WILL LAST TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING.

OTHER CONCERN IS CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI FLASH FLOOD WATCH DROPS AT 00Z, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONTINUING UNTIL 06Z. WHILE I THINK THE
THREAT FOR TRULY HEAVY RAIN IS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, WE ARE SO
WET THAT I THINK THE WATCH IS STILL VALID UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH, POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAIN IS STILL A VERY REAL THREAT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT DOESN`T GET VERY FAR
SOUTH BEFORE STALLING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
STALL OVER SOUTEHRN MISSOURI OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS
IT LOITERS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY INTO, THEN
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WHICH ENVIGORATES THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PUSHES THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY RESULTING
IN HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 5960M 500MB
RIDGE SPINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE SOME
REAL JULY HEAT THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEEKEND WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE OVER
THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
THE REST OF THE AREA.

CARNEY

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF KFAM AS OF 1700
UTC. KCOU AND KUIN WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL
DEAL WITH IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE METRO TAFS...APPEARS THAT A NARROW WINDOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS
LIKELY AND KEPT IN TAF. HOWEVER...IF WARM FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT
AS FAR NORTH AS ANTICIPATED...THEN THE CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD
DIMINISH. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE METRO TAFS DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF KFAM AS OF 1700
UTC. FOR LAMBERT FIELD...APPEARS THAT A NARROW WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS LIKELY
AND KEPT IN TAF. HOWEVER...IF WARM FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS ANTICIPATED...THEN THE CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD DIMINISH.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT AND
ITS UNCERTAIN NORTHWARD PUSH.

GOSSELIN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 63 79 69 89 / 80 10 60 30
QUINCY 57 75 63 85 / 80 10 60 50
COLUMBIA 59 77 66 88 / 60 20 60 30
JEFFERSON CITY 61 79 67 89 / 60 30 60 30
SALEM 67 77 66 87 / 80 20 40 30
FARMINGTON 67 80 67 90 / 80 40 40 10

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-IRON
MO-JEFFERSON MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-
PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-
ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON
MO.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-KNOX
MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-SHELBY MO-
WARREN MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

327 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

CARNEY

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MDLS CONTINUE
TO PROG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRI AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MDLS PROG THE LOW, CURRENTLY OFF THE WRN COAST, TO
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ON MON. REGION REMAINS UNDER
NW FLOW THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HAVE CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. POPS INCREASE AS
NW FLOW RETURNS, BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPS IN GOING FORECAST MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED, ESP FOR MON WHEN THERMAL RIDGE REALLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF A
CDFNT, WILL KEEP FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREV FOR NOW.

TILLY

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF KFAM AS OF 1700
UTC. FOR LAMBERT FIELD...APPEARS THAT A NARROW WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS LIKELY
AND KEPT IN TAF. HOWEVER...IF WARM FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS ANTICIPATED...THEN THE CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD DIMINISH.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT AND
ITS UNCERTAIN NORTHWARD PUSH.

GOSSELIN

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-KNOX
MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-SHELBY MO-
WARREN MO.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

131 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

Main near term concern is the chances for renewed convective
development over the eastern cwfa.

A pocket of somewhat higher instability has developed over south
central MO where sfc temperatures have risen into the low-mid
80s. Progged RUC instability of 500-1000 j/kg is expected in this
area this afternoon. High resolution models are tending to
intensify convection along/ahead of the ongoing showers, at least
on a scattered basis. A continued strong low level inflow/jet will
enhance low level helicity with the potential of stronger
storms/low topped supercells. Already seeing weak rotation with
convection in the northeast cwfa. Helicity may be enhanced by west-
east warm front over central/east central MO. HRRR develops
somewhat stronger updrafts toward 21z-22z and then on into the
early evening. Some sw-ne training of convection may occur over our
eastern counties as well early this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

Another shortwave is progged to move into eastern KS late in the
day with further chances for renewed precip into Thu night. In
general, better precip chances will then shift north of the area
for a bit as an upper level ridge works it`s way over the region
Fri-Sat-Sun. Very warm/hot/steamy weather is then expected Fri
into early next week. First look at general guidance has low 90s
for highs for this time frame (Fri-Mon).

Active weather then may occur again by Tue-Wed as the upper
pattern amplifies as a ridge builds over Rockies and we are under
upper level nw flow. Hard to get too detailed yet out that far.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

Generally, MVFR conditions likely with IFR conditions possible
through the period. Overcast skies continue to overspread the area
and should continue through at least Thursday morning. Cig/Vis
numbers will vary a bit, but again should remain within the ranges
highlighted above. Low level wind shear will also be possible this
afternoon...then should relax as time progresses.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR MOZ082-083-096>098-
104>106.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

623 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT WILL BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY...DISSIPATING SUNDAY. A BETTER FLOW OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIFTED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE BERMUDA HIGH
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WE JUST DON`T SEEM TO HAVE ADEQUATE LIFT FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGELY PINNED SEABREEZE APPEARS TO HAVE
A DEPTH OF ABOUT 3700FT ACCORDING TO THE FINE LINE ON KLTX WHEREAS
THE RUC ANALYSIS ON THE SPC PAGE SHOWS LFC`S CLOSER TO 4500KT. IT IS
MORE UNSTABLE THAN RECENT AFTERNOONS DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS
CLOUD COVER, WHICH IS NOT OVERLY OPAQUE BUT CERTAINTY MADE SKY COVER
FORECAST INTERESTING. HAVE MAINTAINED VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN FARTHER WEST COMPLIMENTS OF PIEDMONT TROUGH.
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HIGHEST POPS THEN COME OVER
EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES AS THE WRF IN PARTICULAR SHOWS LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS DEVELOP ON FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AFFECTING NE NC.
LOCALLY RUN HRRR HAS STORMS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND BRUSHING
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG
31-32 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STEERING ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS.
WARM DESCENDING AIR WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO MINIMIZE THE
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON`S SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN A REGIME OF
850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY >70 PERCENT. WE`RE LESS THAN 50
PERCENT THROUGH THAT LAYER TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND SHOULDN`T
RECOVER MUCH MOISTURE HERE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.

HEAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY: WITH 850 MB TEMPS EDGING TOWARD +20C I
ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. FORECAST HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
100-105 BOTH DAYS. THE AMOUNT OF WESTERLY WIND DELAYING THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING WHICH DAY IS
WARMEST AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS
SHOULD BE FRIDAY. STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE WINDS
THURSDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. MY
FORECAST LOWS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE: 75-80...
WARMEST NEAR THE COAST.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OH-PA THURSDAY
AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE NOW UNIVERSALLY INDICATING THIS
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES AS
THE RIDGE TRANSLATES WESTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
MORNING TO TX/NM DURING SUNDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DIRECT HARD TO PINPOINT/TIME IMPULSES TOWARD THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWN TO INCREASE...THUS THE
TREND IS FOR A BUMP IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. STAYED WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO EXCEPT FOR
SUNDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THE CONVECTION IN
RALEIGH`S AREA...HOWEVER A STRAY STORM COULD MAKE INTO OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 01-04Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT...WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
FOG...BUT THERE COULD BE ISOLATED 5SM POCKETS AROUND SUNRISE. THE
TROUGH STAYS IN THE VICINITY ON THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS FINALLY COMING UP OVER THE WATERS
ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO
DEVELOP NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL COASTAL JETLETS AND THIS ONE MAY POISED
TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT. FRYING PAN HAS PICKED UP TO 13G15KT AND 4 FT
WHILE OLDER SWAN RUNS WANTED 4 FT ALREADY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF OLDER FORECAST AND WNA WAVE GUIDANCE. IT MAY BE A BIT OF
A NOWCASTING TYPE SCENARIO TO SEE IF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KT
DEVELOP...IT SEEMS A BIT UNLIKELY. EVEN IF THEY DO THEY SHOULD BE SO
LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE THAT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NO
BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 30
DEGREES LATITUDE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE TYPICAL SOUTHWEST WIND
WE EXPERIENCE WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BY ANOTHER 5-10 KT...AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE WINDS EXCEED 20 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RECENT COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
SHOULD SHIFT OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT IN THE
WEAKER OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A COMBINATION
OF 10-SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND LOCAL WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE ONSET
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BACK TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..THEN 3 FT BY
MONDAY EVENING.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

314 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SCT LOW WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED PER COASTAL PIER
OBSERVATIONS. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING FURTHER INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IMPEDING ITS PROGRESS.
THUS TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IS UNCERTAIN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A TIGHT GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SSW WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KT. ONLY ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NOTHING
ORGANIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM TAFS
BUT PROBABLY THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY VCSH IS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.

WINDS DECREASE 02-03Z TO LIGHT SW WITH SCT LO/MID CLOUDS AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER 03-06Z AT
KLBT/KILM BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONTINUES WITH SW-
WSW WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A COMBINATION
OF 10-SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND LOCAL WIND CHOP.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

103 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN TO MOBRIDGE SD.
ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z-19Z FROM AROUND LINTON TO CARRINGTON AND
THEN SPREADING MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COVERED
PRETTY WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST...BUT DID EXTEND THIS AREA BACK A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST...FROM AROUND SELFRIDGE...TO JUST EAST OF
BISMARCK...TO AROUND CARRINGTON...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

SCATTERED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT CREATING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG AT PLACES LIKE DICKINSON AND MINOT. OTHERWISE
SKIES WERE CLEARING WEST AND CENTRAL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD. WILL DROP
MENTION OF SMOKE AFTER 12Z.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ALSO...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED IN DICKINSON...LIKELY DUE TO AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS THAT WERE REPORTED
ON TUESDAY EVENING. NEW HRADEC IN DUNN COUNTY ALSO REPORTED HEAVY
RAIN...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING
THERE AS WELL. THUS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STARK AND
DUNN COUNTIES REGARDING DENSE FOG OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO
COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY
TODAY...WITH THE MODELS INDICATING SOME ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MENTION THUNDER LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON MOST
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND AREAS EAST. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOWER
70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 70S WEST AND SOUTH.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A WEAK H500 (HIGH OVER LOW) REX BLOCK
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WHICH RESULTS IN RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION
TWO DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THE
REX BLOCK KICKS OUT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE EASTERN PACIFIC FLOW.
THIS WILL BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING THE REGION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE ACTIVE ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. PERHAPS THE LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM GETTING NORTH. THIS EXPLAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AS MODELS APPEAR A BIT CAUTIOUS IN PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE
H500 RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

WILL START OUT WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMOT WITH THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO A BRIEF TEMPO PERIOD AT
KISN FOR SMOKE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT KJMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A
TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

129 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECTING FRONT TO STALL N CNTRL WV TO NEAR TRI STATE VCNTY HTS TODAY...
THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT. FRONT OSCILLATING BACK SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LINES/CELLS ARE MOVING MUCH QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS HOWEVER...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS IN TERMS FOR KEEPING
WATER ISSUES AT BAY FOR NOW. STILL...THE LONGEVITY OF THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN KEEP THE NECESSITY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FRONT AT 05Z FROM NEAR PIT TO ZZV TO SOUTH OF CVG. FIGURING FRONT WILL
STILL NEAR CKB AND JUST SOUTH OF PKB AND NEAR HTS DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z PERIOD.
HAVE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY.

CEILINGS LOWER 06Z TO 12Z WITH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT IN THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIIA COUNTIES NEAR THE FRONT...WITH 2 TO 3 THSD FT CEILINGS IN
SE WV AND SW VA. VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN SHOWERS. IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SAY
VCNTY UNI AND NORTH CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW 1 THSD FT THROUGH 15Z IN LOW STRATUS.

WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY HTS-CRW-EKN ON SOUTH TODAY...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE PKB AND CKB 06Z SET OF TAFS.

HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AROUND 00Z AND THEN BY 06Z IN THE NORTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
VARY. EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS...IF A BIT FURTHER CEILINGS COULD
DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST AT PKB FOR 10Z TO 15Z.

AFTER 06 THURSDAY...
ADDITONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH
AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...KTB/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

630 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TIMING OF STORMS WAS BASED ON THE
LATEST RUC13 DATA...SHOWING THE BAND SHIFTING EAST GRADUALLY THRU
THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING BY AROUND 00Z.

LACY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MUCH ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN BAND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
ARDMORE...AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST GIVEN THE
OBSERVED SURFACE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE HIGHWAY
75 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE PRECIPITATION
RATES OBSERVED SO FAR THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TAPER OFF IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
FASHION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GREATER FORCING SHIFTS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF ONGOING
RAINFALL...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OF THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES COULD BE DROPPED EARLY...POSSIBLY BY MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BORDER LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME
LATE THIS WEEK...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS AS THE RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AT THAT POINT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS CAN DRY OUT FROM THE CURRENT ROUND OF RAINFALL...WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OF THE YEAR. GIVEN HOW
WARM PARTS OF THE AREA WERE ABLE TO GET IN EARLY JUNE NOT LONG
AFTER THE FLOODS OF MAY...WOULD BET THAT THIS WILL OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY THAN MOST WOULD EXPECT. MOST CERTAINLY HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS...LIKELY LEADING TO OUR FIRST HEAT
ADVISORIES OF THE SUMMER.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 77 69 87 73 / 90 50 50 10
FSM 80 70 89 72 / 90 40 30 10
MLC 77 71 88 72 / 100 30 20 10
BVO 76 66 85 71 / 90 50 50 30
FYV 75 68 85 69 / 90 50 50 10
BYV 75 68 85 69 / 90 50 50 10
MKO 76 69 87 71 / 100 50 40 10
MIO 74 66 83 71 / 100 50 50 20
F10 76 70 88 72 / 90 40 30 10
HHW 83 72 90 72 / 80 10 10 10

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.

AVIATION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PENDLETON OR

708 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INLAND TODAY. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING PLENTY OF VORTICIES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW. THESE ARE
ENHANCING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MUCH OF
THIS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER
VORT CENTER IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
EVENING TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY BASIN. THE UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A
LITTLE COOLER TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BRING HIGHS DOWN ABOUT 3-8 DEGREES. GRADIENTS ALSO SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. FOR THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE IN THE 70S. 94

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SWING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL SEE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE
PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY END THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON, AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH OF THESE SAME
AREAS DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP
VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS GOING ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WALLOWA
COUNTY. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACNW SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE
FLOW OVER THE AREA SOUTHWESTERLY. THUS VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONSENSUS IN
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR
127W SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST, THUS GIVING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO FORECAST
AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION
RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING SINKING MOTION EAST OF THE CASCADES
THUS YIELDING DRY ND STABLE CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM IN
WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE IN A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH PRODUCES WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES RESULTING IN SINKING AIR WHICH RESULTS IN DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...SCT-BKN 110-150 AT KRDM AND KBDN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
KBDN AND KRDM INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VARIABLE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA AND A FEW ISOLD
TSRA WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. POLAN

FIRE WEATHER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD GET A SIGH OF RELIEF
AS THE WEATHER TRANSITIONS FROM THE HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS TO MORE COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE THE TIME OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED SOME OF THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN DESCHUTES COUNTY PRODUCED ABOUT 60 STRIKES IN THE PAST 30
MINUTES. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. MANY STORMS WILL BRING UP TO
A HALF OF AN INCH AND SOME ONE INCH OR MORE...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FIREFIGHTERS IN STEEP
TERRAIN SHOULD WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS
DEBRIS FLOWS. WISTER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 67 91 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
ALW 71 94 68 87 / 20 30 30 20
PSC 69 98 69 91 / 10 20 20 10
YKM 69 95 67 88 / 10 20 20 10
HRI 70 96 68 90 / 20 20 20 20
ELN 68 93 65 86 / 10 20 20 10
RDM 58 83 55 82 / 40 30 20 20
LGD 52 85 56 79 / 40 60 60 60
GCD 59 84 58 84 / 50 70 60 60
DLS 71 87 68 83 / 20 20 10 10

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-
640>645.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ643-645.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ030.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PENDLETON OR

400 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SWING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL SEE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE
PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY END THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON, AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH OF THESE SAME
AREAS DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP
VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS GOING ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WALLOWA
COUNTY. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACNW SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE
FLOW OVER THE AREA SOUTHWESTERLY. THUS VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONSENSUS IN
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR
127W SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST, THUS GIVING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO FORECAST
AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION
RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING SINKING MOTION EAST OF THE CASCADES
THUS YIELDING DRY ND STABLE CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM IN
WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE IN A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH PRODUCES WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES RESULTING IN SINKING AIR WHICH RESULTS IN DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. POLAN

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...SCT-BKN 110-150 AT KRDM AND KBDN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
KBDN AND KRDM INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VARIABLE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA AND A FEW ISOLD
TSRA WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. POLAN

.FIRE WEATHER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD GET A SIGH OF RELIEF
AS THE WEATHER TRANSITIONS FROM THE HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS TO MORE COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE THE TIME OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED SOME OF THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN DESCHUTES COUNTY PRODUCED ABOUT 60 STRIKES IN THE PAST 30
MINUTES. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. MANY STORMS WILL BRING UP TO
A HALF OF AN INCH AND SOME ONE INCH OR MORE...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FIREFIGHTERS IN STEEP
TERRAIN SHOULD WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS
DEBRIS FLOWS. WISTER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 68 92 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
ALW 72 94 68 87 / 20 30 30 20
PSC 70 98 69 91 / 10 20 20 10
YKM 69 97 66 90 / 10 20 20 10
HRI 71 96 68 90 / 20 20 20 20
ELN 69 93 65 86 / 10 20 20 10
RDM 58 84 55 82 / 40 30 20 20
LGD 52 86 56 79 / 40 60 60 60
GCD 59 88 58 84 / 50 70 60 60
DLS 72 88 68 83 / 20 20 10 10

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-
640>645.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ643-645.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ030.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

90/99/99/85

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

649 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG IT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED DUE TO THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD SLIGHTLY
CLEAR BUT REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES AIM ON OUR LOCAL
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIDE INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY HOWEVER AS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IT SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY MORNING-THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE SOLIDLY LINKED TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70 KT 300 HPA JET. WE/LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TSRA AS 0-1KM STORM REL HELICITY RAMPS UP TO SOME
LOFTY LEVELS OF 2-3.5 M2/S2.THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THIS PERIOD. A PERSISTENT
BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA. THE
DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC WAS INCREASED TO SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MULTI- CELL SEVERE AND A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS SHOULD
NEGATE ANYTHING FOR THAN A FEW ELEVATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

PWAT OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL QUICKLY ADVECT BACK INTO THE STATE
AND HELP TO JUICE UP THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE
A FEW...TRAINING TSRA COULD EASILY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF
JUST 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.

CONFIDENCE IN A 48 HOUR/2-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY
DRY/LOW PW AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA COAST WHICH
IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL DURING
THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER
MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH THIS
ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES DIMINISHED THE
ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM.

AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED THOUGH WITH THE LOW STRATO
CUE REMAINING ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW IFR CIGS
AT JST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST
AT BFD...AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LGT SHOWERS
WILL PUSH SEWD AND THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE
AIRSPACE DRYING OUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SCT
P.M. SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM
JST/AOO/UNV...HOWEVER DUE TO LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS CONFIDENCE IS
WAINING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. TSTMS SRN 1/2. VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LCL
IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. STRONG TSTMS PSBL SRN 1/3.

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

347 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD SLIGHTLY
CLEAR BUT REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED THOUGH WITH THE LOW STRATO
CUE REMAINING ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW IFR CIGS
AT JST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST
AT BFD...AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LGT SHOWERS
WILL PUSH SEWD AND THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE
AIRSPACE DRYING OUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SCT
P.M. SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM
JST/AOO/UNV...HOWEVER DUE TO LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS CONFIDENCE IS
WAINING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. TSTMS SRN 1/2. VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LCL
IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. STRONG TSTMS PSBL SRN 1/3.

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

317 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD SLIGHTLY
CLEAR BUT REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.

CONFIDENCE IN A 48 HOUR/2-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE LATEST MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY/LOW PW AIR
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THURSDAY`S
CONVECTIVE FRONTAL WAVE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA COAST WHICH
SHOULD REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAFL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST
LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD
CONVECTIVE IMPULSES ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FCST THAT
MAY STILL TAKE A WHILE TO BE RESOLVED.

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED THOUGH WITH THE LOW STRATO
CUE REMAINING ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW IFR CIGS
AT JST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST
AT BFD...AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LGT SHOWERS
WILL PUSH SEWD AND THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE
AIRSPACE DRYING OUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SCT
P.M. SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM
JST/AOO/UNV...HOWEVER DUE TO LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS CONFIDENCE IS
WAINING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. TSTMS SRN 1/2. VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LCL
IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. STRONG TSTMS PSBL SRN 1/3.

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1143 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE
OUT ALONG AHEAD OF IT...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MUCH OR THE
REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. THE CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS THE SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE...THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN THE SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL AND IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT LESS CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES AIM ON OUR LOCAL
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIDE INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS /WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEG F
OR MORE COOLER THAN PRESENT LOWS/.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THIS PERIOD. BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES IN
OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN OUR COUNTIES. HIGH END AMOUNTS WOULD BE 0.5 TO 1.0.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER AS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY IT SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NRN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY MORNING-THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE SOLIDLY LINKED TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70 KT 300 HPA JET. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS OUR SE ZONES
INCLUDED IN THEIR MARGINAL RISK AREA...WE/LL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE TSRA AS 0-1KM STORM REL HELICITY
RAMPS UP TO SOME LOFTY LEVELS OF 2-3.5 M2/S2. A BLEND OF MULTI-
CELL SEVERE AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS SHOULD NEGATE ANYTHING FOR THAN A FEW ELEVATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED THOUGH WITH THE LOW STRATO
CUE REMAINING ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW IFR CIGS
AT UNV AND JST SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST AT BFD...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LGT SHOWERS WILL PUSH SEWD AND THE LATEST
HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE AIRSPACE DRYING OUT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SCT P.M. SHOWERS OR ISOLD
TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM JST/AOO/UNV...HOWEVER DUE TO LATEST NEAR
TERM MODELS CONFIDENCE IS WAINING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. TSTMS SRN 1/2. VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LCL
IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. STRONG TSTMS PSBL SRN 1/3.

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1056 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM...LIGHT BL MIXING IS SLOWING THE DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 80S LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...
TEMPS ARE A SOLID FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY/S READINGS AT THIS
TIME. NEVERTHELESS...CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND DRIER AIR
SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
THU MORNING...GENERALLY A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO. CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...AND IS
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MUCH MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THUS...POPS WILL REMAIN AT
LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 740 PM...A VERY WARM EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS STILL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER/MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.
FORTUNATELY...UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT BEARABLE. THE RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS HAS ALSO
KEPT THE LID ON BUOYANCY/DEEP CONVECTION...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO AT LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...VERY LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE
LOWER 60S MOST AREAS...AND EVEN UPPER 50S IN OTHERS. THIS HAS CAPPED
SBCAPE VALUES AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...AND WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WILL
FURTHER SERVE TO CURTAIL LATE DAY CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
ISOLD WEAK RIDGE TOP SHOWERS/TSRA. THE HRRR DOES FEATURE SCATTERED
NC FOOTHILLS CONVECTION DEVELOPING CIRCA 19Z...BUT THIS WILL BE A
STRUGGLE GIVEN THE MIXED OUT DEWPOINTS.

OTHERWISE...AN H5 RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
SE COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING MAINLY BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
MAY MAKE SOME PROGRESS SWD INTO THE NRN TIER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI.
NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NRN TIER...BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CINH IN SOUNDINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TO
ONCE AGAIN LIMIT INSTABILITY AND TSTM POTENTIAL DURING PEAK HEATING.
THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FRI WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NRN NC MTNS LATE
IN THE DAY. AND...A FEW MODELS DEPICT ISOLD ACTIVITY OUT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT WARM MINS AND MAXES ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGHOUT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A 593DM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LIES THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM EAST TO
WEST NEAR THE NC/SC STATELINE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE ACROSS SE
KY...SW VA...AND E TN AND IMPACT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY THE 500MB RIDGE RETROGRADES FURTHER WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PLACING THE AREA IN GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AS WELL. GUIDANCE BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS VIRGINIA AND INTO NE NC HEADING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STAYS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS ALSO BRINGING A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GENERAL
SHORTWAVE TRACK JUSTIFIES CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NC PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

ON SUNDAY WE REMAIN IN GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE SC COASTAL PLAIN
AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW...SUNDAY APPEARS TO SUPPORT
CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ONCE
AGAIN THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING SO WE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS EXTENDING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
NC AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS...AND
EASTWARD OVER THE GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THIS TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE CHANNELED WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT...THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES...AND CHANNELED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CROSS OUR AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR
AREA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL TIMING. THE FRONT
STALLS JUST TO OUR SE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINS OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND GREATER
INSTABILITY THAT WILL ONLY PARTIALLY DIMINISH EACH NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...FAVORING A BETTER CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE
TIME...BUT STEERING FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CELLS
MOVING...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AVIATION WX FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT EVER GETS AROUND HERE DURING EARLY JULY... WITH
A DRY AIR MASS SUPPORTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES
FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE MTNS FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A MENTION AT KAVL. W/SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BECOMING W/NW
AT MOST TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND TO PERMIT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER ANY CONVECTION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN
MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

745 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM...A VERY WARM EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS STILL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER/MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.
FORTUNATELY...UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT BEARABLE. THE RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS HAS ALSO
KEPT THE LID ON BUOYANCY/DEEP CONVECTION...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO AT LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AVIATION WX FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT EVER GETS AROUND HERE DURING EARLY JULY... WITH
A DRY AIR MASS SUPPORTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES
FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE MTNS FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A MENTION AT KAVL. W/SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BECOMING W/NW
AT MOST TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

541 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO THE NORTH...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE NAM IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH SHOWING
INCREASING 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...LIMITING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.

JCL

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST IS THE TRANSITION BACK TO
DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WAS
ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN WEST-CENTRAL MO WITH AN ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ORIENTED EAST/WEST SOUTH OF I-70.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN
STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BEST COLLOCATION OF
THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS IS LOCATED ACROSS E MO/SRN IL. SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...WIND FIELDS ALOFT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MID-SOUTH BEGINS A SLOW WARM
UP. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20 C
ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S ON THURSDAY INCREASING TO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL STILL BE OPPRESSIVE FOR THOSE
WORKING FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS.

IN THE LONG-TERM...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO
SMALLER-SCALE PATTERN DETAILS...BUT MOST LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A CUTOFF LOW/VORT MAX WILL BECOME
DISPLACED FROM THE LARGER HUDSON BAY CIRCULATION BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING OFF ENERGY...BUT
AGREES THAT A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
COOLER/WETTER PERIOD WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BUT DETAILS OF
SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

TVT

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH MKL LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS. JBR HAS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT MEM...MKL...AND TUP PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE RAIN. VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN UP THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

WER

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1249 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
WEAK SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FOR THIS REASON...CHANCES WERE INCREASED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES IN OUR
CWA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED
FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN NW TENNESSEE AS SOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING STORMS EXIT THE AREA AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS
SUBSIDED THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOODING WATCH HAS BEEN/WILL BE CANCELLED MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM TODAY MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CANNOT COUNT OUT A STRONG STORM OVER THOSE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE. MODELS DEPICT DIFFERING SCENARIOS WITH THE
AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY WITH THE
EURO AND GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE...THE NAM KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
THE HRRR DEPICTING SCATTERED PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS
THE HRRRS SOLUTION. IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM AND FRONT PULLING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER REGION LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT CLEARER SKIES AND A MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE WEATHER STORY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT
AFTERNOON 925MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
25-27 DEGREES WHICH CONVERT TO SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. THOSE SURFACE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES.
HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS POINT BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INCREASING OUR CHANCES OF RAIN AND
DECREASING TEMPERATURES.

JPM3

AVIATION...18Z TAF CYC

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH MKL LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS. JBR HAS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS EVENING, BUT MEM, MKL, AND TUP PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE
RAIN. VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN UP THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

WER

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1028 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...

TVT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

JPM3

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY SITE...BUT THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT JBR. WILL INCLUDED VCSH AT JBR
BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...BUT NO WEATHER MENTIONED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND VIS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

614 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

JPM3

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

505 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

JPM3

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DYER-GIBSON-
HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

UPDATE...

BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
NAM EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES FURTHER
SOUTH AND ALSO WENT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SENT. IN THE PROCESS
OF UPDATING THE ZONE FORECASTS...GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP THROUGH THIS REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING WEST TO EAST WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO
INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BETWEEN 3 AND
5 INCHES...LOCALLY MORE.

ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH MS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...BUT THINK THESE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

JCL

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OVER MISSOURI. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE NEW FOCUS FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THESE AREAS ARE PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO EXCEED 2.25
INCHES. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE REFOCUSING FURTHER
NORTH ALONG A RETREATING SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH
HPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ALIGN WELL WITH THE HPC MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND MLCAPES EXCEED 1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
AREAWIDE AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
EAST BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERALL...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
OCCURS AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SPREAD BACK OVER THESE AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO CREEP
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 100-105 WHICH WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALONG
ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO
SET UP AGAIN WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ALSO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

332 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS TOOK A WHILE TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING ACROSS THE AREA
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS OF 3
PM. MODELS SHOW THAT WE STILL REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER THE EXIT REGION
OF THE JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT AS WELL AS KEEPING BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SLOWER
SPEEDS AROUND 700 HPA THAT MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH STORM
MORPHOLOGY. THE 12Z TTU WRF LOOKS TO HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THINGS ARE INITIATING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
DEVELOPS THIS INTO A FAIRLY DECENT MCS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN AFTER DARK AND THIS MAY HELP THE MCS TO
PROPAGATE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN DUE EAST WHICH RESULTED IN THE
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL WITH THE 18Z
NAM...12Z HIRES-ARW...AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS SOMEWHERE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IN SOME CASES
DUE SOUTH. INITIALLY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE A WET
MICROBURST/DOWNBURST THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THE ONLY WRENCH
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC MACHINERY IS THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DO
FEEL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PULL IN SOME LOW CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AS WELL AS ANY REMNANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF AND
PRECIPITATION MAY COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. THERE IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION A BIT THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MAY HELP TO
PUSH CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART IN THE LONG TERM. UPPER LOW
WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE WORKING NEWD INTO EASTERN
AZ AND ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING...MOISTURE
AND FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER GIVEN UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
FROM THE EAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE UNDERWAY. NAM IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS COMPARED TO GFS WHICH HAS AXIS
RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WARMING LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPS. WILL REACH THE 90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH 90+ TEMPS EMERGING ON THE CAPROCK BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN S
PLAINS/SW PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY WITH NO MENTION OF POPS BY
SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WITH WEAKNESS IN RIDGE POSSIBLE AND NW FLOW ON EASTERN
SIDE OF HIGH ALLOWING FOR A RE-EMERGENCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESP NORTH. TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MON-TUE BUT WITH ABDUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE AND STANDING
WATER...FEEL THAT MAY BE A LITTLE AGRESSIVE SO BACKED DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. JAMES

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 86 64 83 / 40 30 50 40
TULIA 60 85 66 84 / 40 20 40 30
PLAINVIEW 63 85 67 84 / 30 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 65 88 67 84 / 30 20 40 40
LUBBOCK 67 87 68 86 / 30 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 64 89 67 86 / 30 20 30 30
BROWNFIELD 66 88 68 86 / 30 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 67 90 71 90 / 50 30 20 10
SPUR 67 88 69 88 / 20 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 68 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 0

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

211 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE MID LEVELS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...THAT REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WHATS LEFT OF A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT A LINE FROM GRAYSON COUNTY...THROUGH DENTON COUNTY TO
PARKER AND EARTH COUNTIES...THEN DOWN INTO COMANCHE COUNTY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR THAT AREA. WHERE THIS FRONT MOVES WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. WHERE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT TRACKS WILL BE
THE MOST CONCERNING. THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...THEY BOTH HAVE IT TRACKING EAST AND THEN
LIFTING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO FALL APART AT THIS POINT IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS AND THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...WITH THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
REMOVED.

BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THEREFORE, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
MIGHT START TO SEE SOME OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THIS
YEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT SOME
CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE KEEP WEATHER OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.

78.JG

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 103 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

MAIN CHALLENGES LIE IN THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECT THE
DFW AREA AIRPORTS...PARTICULARLY DFW/AFW/FTW. WACO SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AND REMAIN VFR. TIMING LOW
MVFR CIGS IN OVERNIGHT MAY BE TRICKY AND RELATED TO STRENGTH OF
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND IF THERE IS ANY CORRUPTION OF
THE AMBIENT FLOW BY CURRENT STORM OUTFLOW.

WE WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING THE MAIN THREAT OF TSRA WITH TEMPO
IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 20Z ACROSS THE DFW AREA...BEFORE GOING
VCTS THROUGH 23Z. WACO WILL REMAIN VFR. AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AFTER 00Z...AIRPORTS WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE MVFR STRATUS RETURNS BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE STRONG JULY HEATING AND MIXING...MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. GUSTY S WINDS 15-20 KTS
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY.

05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 93 76 94 76 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 92 73 93 74 / 0 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 72 91 73 93 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 74 91 72 94 72 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 75 93 74 92 74 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 76 93 77 95 78 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 74 91 74 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 75 91 75 93 74 / 0 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 91 72 92 72 / 0 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 90 71 91 71 / 10 5 0 0 0

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ092-093-
102-103-116>118-129>131-141.

/78

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1230 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
NO REAL CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE KDRT FORECAST DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. S/SE WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOOKING FOR WINDS TO BE S/SE AT 10-15 KNOTS. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR 03Z-05Z AND AROUND 11Z
FOR KDRT. CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z-17Z THURSDAY WITH S/SE
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...WE HAVE
REMOVED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A CARRIZO SPRINGS TO UVALDE TO
KERRVILLE LINE WHILE MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS WEST OF THAT LINE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND AREAS EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW EJECTS TO THE NE...SO A
GRADUAL DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES OVER PARTS OF
VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL...AND KINNEY COUNTIES WHERE LOW CLOUDS
KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S YESTERDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TODAY TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ELSEWHERE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT SAT/AUS WITH IFR AT DRT.
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. ISOLATED SHRAS
CURRENTLY NW OF SAT...OVER HILL COUNTRY...WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY NORTH
OF DRT. OTHERWISE...S WINDS WILL BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE... /SLIGHT INCREASE IN MORNING POPS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/
HIGH PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO EXTEND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY THIS MORNING. NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG A STRIPE
FROM EAGLE PASS TO JUST WEST OF LLANO...SO THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
SHOULD SEE SOME EXTRA RAIN POTENTIAL BEFORE THE DRY AIR SURGE
MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER INLAND LATE TODAY. RAPID REFRESH MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DECREASING COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A COMPACT HEAVY RAIN PATTERN ALONG A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY WILL BE PINCHED NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT
NOT BEFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FELL OVER A
FEW LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE KICKER TO FORCE RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NW IS EXPECTED TO BE A SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OFF THE GULF AND A SUBSIDENT REGION OF A WESTWARD MOVING
TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. THE INFLUENCES SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING THE DEEP MOISTURE LAYER OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY OVER AREAS W
OF ECU/DRT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CA
COAST IS SHARPENING THE BUILD-UP OF UPPER RIDGING OVER NRN MEXICO
INTO TX.

MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT...AND
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FOR A WHILE AFTER TODAY. THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD CURVE NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US...BUT ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF
GOOD SUMMER BREEZES IS EXPECTED OVER TX WHILE THE FASTER ZONAL/SW
FLOW ALOFT TAKES TIME TO RETREAT NWD. THE WELL MIXED GULF
INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME THE WARMING TREND
VERY SLOW IN THE SHORT-TERM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCES SUGGEST A DROP-OFF TREND IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BY FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
ACCELERATION OF THE WARMING TREND FOR MAXES AND ALSO ENABLE
SLIGHTLY LOWER NIGHTTIME MINS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD ON A
CONTINUED RIDGE BUILD-UP OVER TX/NM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SEA-BREEZE OVER THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. AS MUCH DRIER AIR SETTLES BENEATH THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP INTO THE MID 90S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG I-35...WITH A FEW AREAS TO THE SW POSSIBLY
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. AS WITH MOST OF THE RECENT EL-NINO
INFLUENCED WARM SEASONS...THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT VEGETATION OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 IN THIS FIRST WEEK OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 75 92 74 92 / - - 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 75 92 73 92 / - - 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 92 73 92 / - 10 0 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 90 72 91 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 75 93 74 94 / 30 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 91 73 92 / - 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 93 73 93 / - 0 0 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 92 73 92 / - 10 0 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 75 92 74 92 / - 0 - 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 75 92 74 92 / - 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 93 74 93 / - 0 - 0 -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1146 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...WE HAVE
REMOVED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A CARRIZO SPRINGS TO UVALDE TO
KERRVILLE LINE WHILE MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS WEST OF THAT LINE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND AREAS EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW EJECTS TO THE NE...SO A
GRADUAL DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES OVER PARTS OF
VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL...AND KINNEY COUNTIES WHERE LOW CLOUDS
KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S YESTERDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TODAY TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ELSEWHERE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1022 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES UNDER UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER GA...PUT
A LID ON CONVECTION IN OUR CWA TODAY. CONVECTION TRIED TO CREEP
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT WOULD DIMINISH AS SOON AS IT TRIED
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE AGAIN AT THIS HOUR...CONVECTION
CREEPING INTO TAZEWELL AND SMYTH...AND SHOWING SIGNS OF
DIMINISHING AS IT DOES SO. HRRR DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AND NEITHER DO LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD FRI AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WSW. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR
DESTINED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT AND DRIFT ESE...AND COULD
REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THUS...TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THAT THINKING AND CURRENT CONVECTION...HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS...TO MAINLY CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...TAPERING
TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FIRING CONVECTION AND
LATEST AREA RADARS SHOW A LINE OF STORMS ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP.
INSTABILITY IS MODEST BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECENT AND THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRIMARILY FOR WIND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH A WESTERN TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND AND A LOT
OF FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY DO NOT ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WILL
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SO HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WEST BUT POPS WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS SUMMER...THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
CLEAR THE REGION AND REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
INDICATIONS FOR ACTIVITY TO INITIATE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT AND THEN SLIDE EASTWARD. THUS...RATHER THAN BLANKETING THE
WHOLE AREA WITH POPS WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND HAVE A
SLICE OF HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE MIDSECTION WITH LOWER POPS NORTH
AND SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST SO HEAVY RAINERS
LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.

WITH NO PUSH TO THE FRONT THERE WILL BE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MIDDLE 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY WITH LOWER 90S EAST TO LOW/MID 80S
WEST.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAK FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN A WAVE TO THE SE AND ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED MCS TYPE FEATURE TO THE NW UNDER
AN UPPER WAVE. PROGGED LIFT/CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK ESPCLY GIVEN LOSS OF
HEATING UNTIL THE FEATURE TO THE NW ARRIVES...PERHAPS OVER THE NW BY
DAYBREAK PER LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND NAM. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXCEPT RAMPING UP OVER THE FAR
NW TO HIGH CHANCE LATE.

RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY THEN TRAVERSE THE NORTH/NE SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND ACT AS A WAVE TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE STILL IFFY BUT
MAY ACTUALLY REDUCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ELSW GIVEN LIKELY SURROUNDING
LIGHTER SHRA EARLY ON AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS PUTS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
THIRD WITH LOW CHANCES SOUTH PENDING TRACK OF THE POSSIBLE COMPLEX.
OTRW THINKING MORE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS BELOW MOS AS MANY MAY STAY IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH BUMPING CLOSER TO
THE UPPER 80S.

SHOULD SEE A LULL SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE
WAVE TO THE EAST SO GOING PC WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED POPS OVERALL. NEXT
WAVE TO THE NW WILL START TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK TO THE NE AS A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST UNDER A
PASSING SHEAR AXIS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A QUICK RETURN IN
HIGHER PWATS SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY AND A FEW SHRA/TSRA BANDS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. OTRW
HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH LOWS REMAINING ON THE WARM/MUGGY
SIDE...MAINLY MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT EASTERN 5H TROUGH WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES RETROGRADES
WESTWARD AND EXPANDS ALLOWING INCREASING NW FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD CAUSE THIS
UPPER TROFFINESS TO AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
MODELS REMAIN DIFFERENT IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH
THE GFS THE WETTEST IN KEEPING A SURFACE FRONT OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION...WHILE THE EARLIER ECMWF A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST CMC...APPEARS THE WETTER SCENARIO LIKELY BEST AT THIS POINT.

THUS PLAN TO KEEP DAILY POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST. APPEARS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE FAR WEST MONDAY WITH APPROACH
OF THE FRONT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST TUESDAY PER THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY AND PERHAPS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SPILLING SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE
INCLUDING SOME SPOTTY LIKELY POPS OTRW MID/HIGH CHANCES OVERALL.
SHOTGUN TYPE CHANCE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PENDING LOCATION
OF THE FRONT AND OLD OUTFLOW...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTRW MOSTLY PC...WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EXCEPT PERHAPS WARMER PIEDMONT WHERE LOW 90S
POSSIBLE ESPCLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE TIED TO BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT.
TODAY...THIS HAS GENERALLY BEEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA AS A
POCKET OF QUITE STABLE AIR RESIDED ACROSS THE CWA. THIS HAS PUT A
LID ON CONVECTION SO FAR...WITH CONVECTION EITHER TRACKING NORTH
OF I-64...OR REMAINING WEST AND DISSIPATING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
CROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. MESO-SCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT
UPSTREAM MCS OR NEW -SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO REACH WESTERN COUNTIES.
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LWB/BLF/BCB
WITH ASSOCIATED LATE NIGHT REMNANT MCS OR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFT 08Z.

GIVEN THE HOT AIR MASS AND LARGER T/TD SPREADS THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS CLOUDY...MILD...AND SOME RAIN
DURING THE DAY...COMPARED TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND NO LATE DAY RAIN
TODAY...FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED FROM WHAT
WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED IFR-LIFR
BR/FG AT LWB...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN NEAR THE AREA TODAY...AND
MVFR BR AT BCB.

FOR FRI...FEEL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAN TODAY.
BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE CWA FROM WNW-ESE...INSTABILITY IS
GREATER...MINIMUM POCKET WILL BE GONE THAT WAS IN PLACE
TODAY...AND THERE IS EVEN A DECENT SHEAR AXIS NOTED ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO ALL TAFS IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON TEMPO TSRA UNTIL LATER MODEL RUNS
AND TIMING CAN BE OBTAINED.

WINDS...MOSTLY WNW 5-10KTS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH LOW
END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FRI.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING OF CONVECTION OR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL BE DRIVEN BY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT AND RESIDENT INSTABILITY.
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS SATURDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY...BUT TIMING OF SUCH SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE EVENTS THIS
FAR OUT IS NOT PRACTICAL. BEST TO SAY AN UNSETTLED PATTER WILL
REMAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDING SQUARELY
OVER THE CWA MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING LWB/BCB/LYH.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE HINTON WEST VA NOAA WEATHER RADIO...BROADCASTING ON A
FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MHZ...REMAINS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS HAVE
BEEN NOTIFIED AND A TECHNICIAN IS IN ROUTE TO THE SITE AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RESTORATION OF SERVICE.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM/MBS/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JM/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1017 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WINDS...MOSTLY WNW 5-10KTS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH LOW
END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FRI.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM/MBS/RAB
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

138 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL STAY UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REACH AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL WV TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO/PA AREA BY THURSDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND THE
UPPER RIDGES HEADS WEST ALLOWING A BACKDOOR FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
VIRGINIAS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 932 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGE AND TRENDS. LEANED LATE
MORNING POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND NAM. IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS AND
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH SURFACE OBS
AND TWEAKED TOWARDS LAV GUIDE FOR LATE MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SEE
HOW WEATHER DEVELOPS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY.

AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS HAVE FADED IN INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...WITH BROAD AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES STRETCHING FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS UP
THE BLUE RIDGE INTO VA...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO SE WV.

TRIMMED POPS SOME THIS MORNING MODIFYING CLOSER TO THE HRRR...BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. THIS MODEL TAKES FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 14Z...WITH AREA OF
STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN KY MOVING INTO OUR FAR SW VA CWA
BY MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

KEEPING A WATCH ON PRECIP UPSTREAM OVER WV INTO KY THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS ARE DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS LINED UP FROM NRN WV WEST INTO NRN KY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES TODAY FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH SPEED OF THE LOW LVLS ACCELERATES STORMS...WITH STORM
MOTION FROM WSW AT 25-35 KTS. WPC HAS US A SLICE OF SE WV INTO BATH
COUNTY VA IN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WHICH 1
HR FFG RUNS FROM AS LOW AS ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO 1.5 INCHES IN SE WV.

GIVEN THAT WE SAW LIMITED RAINFALL TUESDAY...THINK ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AT BEST...SO FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOLLOWED THE 04Z HRRR AND 00Z HI-RES ARW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE HI-RES ARW-GFS-ECWMF ENTERING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM WILL NOT BE USED AS IT FIRES UP SECONDARY AREA OF
HEAVIER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN VA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE ODD
MODEL OUT...WITH OTHERS KEEPING THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 MORE
IN LINE WITH HIGHER POPS.

WITH HIGHER SHEAR...THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS...WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE WHERE THE HIGHER SHEAR
EXISTS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WITH TODAYS
CONVECTION.

FOR POPS WILL HAVE IT RANGING FROM LIKELY POPS FROM THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE OF SW VA EAST TOWARD CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...OR ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM MARION TO CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION MORE OVER NC/VA BORDER AND SOUTH. THIS AREA COULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE INCREASING CAPES...SO SVR THREAT HERE COULD BE GREATER
THAN FURTHER NORTH...THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS.

TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ONE UPPER VORT
MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. MODELS KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OHIO/NRN KY THROUGH WRN PA LATER
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SE WV/ALLEGHANYS.
ADDED FOG TONIGHT GIVEN CLEARING SKIES...MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN TUESDAY/S
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO BLACKSBURG TO ROANOKE TO
LYNCHBURG. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALLEGHANYS/SE
WV...TO AROUND 80 NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS...TO MID 80S
ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG...AND NEAR 90 DANVILLE/REIDSVILLE.

TONIGHT...NOT CHANGING THE AIRMASS SO MUGGY LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT WESTWARD...PASSING FROM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY
MORNING TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE OUR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO A
SOLID NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
HEATING THURSDAY...PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW/MID 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY DISORGANIZED POP-UP VARIETY THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT THAT A FEW
OF THOSE THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LOCATED.

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN RIDGES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BREAKING UP
FURTHER EAST IN THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDFLOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SINK THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE CAROLINAS...BEFORE STALLING LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

WE WILL THEN HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAKE AN APPROACH FROM AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TIMING AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE FEATURES
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODELS RUNS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE DISTURBANCE TO ENTER OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
EACH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO
THE LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...EXPANDING INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT
WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH MODELS HINTING THIS FEATURE WILL CUTOFF OVER THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TOO OR DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION PROMOTING DAILY THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PATH OF DEEP
CONVECTION LACKING. AS SUCH LONG TERM FORECAST REFLECTS A SHOTGUN
STANCE...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR GREATEST POPS/THUNDER COINCIDENT WITH PEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOTHING EXTREME...WILL FAVOR THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...THEN RETREAT TO SOMETHING NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION AND
LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT AREAS OF IFR-LIFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAD FALLEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA INTO MARYLAND
TONIGHT...THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.
MVFR/IFR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE...SUBJECT TO DAILY
THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

933 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 932 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GIVEN THAT WE SAW LIMITED RAINFALL TUESDAY...THINK ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AT BEST...SO FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOLLOWED THE 04Z HRRR AND 00Z HI-RES ARW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE HI-RES ARW-GFS-ECWMF ENTERING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...NOT CHANGING THE AIRMASS SO MUGGY LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO
THE LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY...STARTING WITH SOME MVFR IN
BLF/LWB...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF MOST TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING
LWB FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

WEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE MTNS.

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN/DEVELOP OVER THE WV/SW VA
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE NORTH OF A BLF-DAN LINE...SO NO
CHANGES REALLY TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH
FOG POSSIBLY FORMING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BARRING ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THIS FRONT WILL BE HANGING UP FROM CENTRAL WV INTO MD TONIGHT THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. FOR US WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE...SUBJECT TO DAILY THREAT FOR MVFR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF BRIEF ROUNDS OF
MVFR/IFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

749 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GIVEN THAT WE SAW LIMITED RAINFALL TUESDAY...THINK ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AT BEST...SO FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOLLOWED THE 04Z HRRR AND 00Z HI-RES ARW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE HI-RES ARW-GFS-ECWMF ENTERING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...NOT CHANGING THE AIRMASS SO MUGGY LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO
THE LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE MTNS.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH
FOG POSSIBLY FORMING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BARRING ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

359 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THAT WE SAW LIMITED RAINFALL TUESDAY...THINK ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AT BEST...SO FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOLLOWED THE 04Z HRRR AND 00Z HI-RES ARW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE HI-RES ARW-GFS-ECWMF ENTERING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...NOT CHANGING THE AIRMASS SO MUGGY LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO
THE LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS LIES FRO EKN-BKW-TRI. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE BRINGING
THIS AREA INTO THE LWB/BLF SITES BY 08-09Z...SO HAVE VCSH WITH
TEMPO SHRA AT BOTH SITES WHERE CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR. THINK FOG
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
SOME FOG AT BCB POSSIBLE EARLY ON BEFORE LOWER CIGS ARRIVE BY 10Z.
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT BCB BETWEEN 10-12Z. DO NOT
FORESEE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MAKING IT PAST THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING BUT CIGS ARE GOING TO LOWER TO A MID DECK AROUND 7-12KFT.
MODELS WERE BRINGING SOME GOOD MIXING OUT OF THE WEST TODAY WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS POPPING UP FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST OVER THE ROA/BCB TAF SITES AND WEST. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPSTREAM FRONT MOVES CLOSER LATER TODAY AND OLD OUTFLOW
HEADS EAST...THE RISK FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ESPCLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN EITHER A PREVAILING VFR MENTION FOR SHRA
OR VCTS FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCLUDING
KDAN WHERE SHOULD BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH
FOG POSSIBLY FORMING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BARRING ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

147 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AT 01Z/9PM COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINING MAINLY WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WORK INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON THE
LATEST LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP
STALL A COLD FRONT NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND BORDER WEST TO
OHIO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO TRIGGER A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST WITH MARGINAL
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WAVERING SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL TRY TO MAKE INROADS
LATE WEDNESDAY...RETREATING THURSDAY...ONLY TO RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...BUT DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING ARE NOT THAT
CLEAR-CUT...ESP WHEN DEALING WITH A WAVERING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE TRACK FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER PER FASTER WESTERLIES ALOFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.
INCREASING INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER WIND ENVELOPE WILL ALSO
SUPPORT PULSE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING THURSDAY.
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WILL REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...AND TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE
SOUTH UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS PER INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD AID
IN ADIABATIC WARMING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH 85H TEMPS
APPROACHING +20 DEG C...SURFACE READING SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE L-M 90S PENDING SUNSHINE. WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL...PER THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD TEXAS/OKLAHOMA FOR THE WEEKEND THEN
EXPAND NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT
WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CARVE OUT FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MODELS
HINTING THIS FEATURE WILL CUTOFF OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH
FOG POSSIBLY FORMING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BARRING ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

642 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADA PROVINCES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER
IOWA...ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE 09.12Z NAM AND 09.15Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION DEVELOPING AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH 5000 FEET TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 07Z
FRIDAY.

SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF FIRST IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER DPROG/DT. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM
INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE PERIOD AND EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY OUT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW PV
ADVECTION/LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
IMPULSE AND FOCUS THE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT...PER DPROG/DT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WITH
THE IMPULSE TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EFFECIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS/IMPULSE WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AT ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

SUNDAY...IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IMPULSE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE IMPULSE PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEN...THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE...WHERE THE 09.12Z GFS BREAKS
DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND THE
09.12Z ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DECENT LIFT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW AND SURFACE FRONT/LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ON AND
OFF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

CONFIDENCE OF VALLEY FOG AT KLSE FRIDAY MORNING PERHAPS NOT AS
HIGH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS INCREASING WIND FROM 10 TO 20 KTS
BETWEEN 100 TO 1400 FT AGL IN THE HOURS IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING
SUNRISE. IF THESE WINDS DO INDEED DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...
FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT BOTH KLSE/KRST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

303 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL IL AND IN/MI
BORDER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
THAT COULD CLIP KENOSHA COUNTY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD INTO OUR SE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE 08.17 HRRR MODEL ISN/T AS OPTIMISTIC WITH
THE PRECIP CHANCES AS IT IS KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS SLOWLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE OTHER SYNOPTIC
MODELS IN BRINGING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMTS IN THE SE SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO INTRODUCED CHANCES OF -RA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LONE ROCK AREA.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
SRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU NT-FRI. 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER WI DURING THIS TIME WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASANT SUMMER WX IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WI SAT/SAT NT. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 1.8 INCHES AS WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION ENSUES. ONLY MARGINAL CAPE IS EXPECTED VIA POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT SHOWERS AND SOME TSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY SAT AFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND SAT NT OVER ALL OF
SRN WI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

FOR SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY BUT
POSSIBLY BECOME CUTOFF OVER LOWER MI WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WITHIN NW FLOW. THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND MAY AFFECT THE AREA INTO TUE. THUS THERE WILL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUE NT
AND WED.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES AS CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD STAY WITHIN VFR CRITERIA. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE ENW TAF SITE AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
TRANSLATES NORTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM THESE
SHOWERS. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE MSN
TAF SITE NEAR LONE ROCK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

PRETTY QUIET PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE 07.17Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 10 KNOTS OR
GREATER CREATING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND IT ALSO
DOES NOT PRODUCE SATURATION AT THE SURFACE KEEPING A 3C TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREAD. THESE SIGNALS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG TO
FORM AND THE AVIATION FORECASTER ALSO IS NOT ENTHUSED ABOUT
FOG...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE NOW IN
CONSENSUS AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE RAIN ALSO STAYING TO THE SOUTH. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD MOVED TO A DRY SOLUTION AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REMAIN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SPREAD ON THE
TIMING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 07.12Z ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BRINGING IT ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE 07.12Z GFS AND GEM LOOK TO BE MUCH
WEAKER WITH IT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN...DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING
WITH THE GFS BLOWING IT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF JUST STARTS TO GET IT TO THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HOLDS IT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. WITH THESE
INCONSISTENCIES...HELD THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT OR LOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS
SIGNAL THAT THE REMAINS OF THE CURRENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

EXPECT PESKY CLOUD DECK FROM 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN INTO SOUTHWEST WI TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NEAR SURFACE LAYER HAS MOISTENED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WINDS
HAVE GONE CALM...BUT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER NOW PUTS A QUESTION
MARK ON FOG POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH BCFG AT KLSE AND AMEND
AS NECESSARY IF FOG DOES INDEED FORM LATE TONIGHT. VERY SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER FROM 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SCT-BKN CUMULUS. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH PV HEIGHT
ANOMALY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING
EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN
WITH STATIONARY FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MORNING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT. NEAR OUR CWA THE MAIN CLUSTERS ARE JUST
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTH AND EAST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND COMBINED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE (RAP/NAM) ARE INDICATING MODERATE TO
HIGH CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER
VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. IF THIS IS REALIZED WE COULD SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH SHEER PROFILES TENDING TO SUPPORT MORE OF A
LINEAR/CLUSTER EVENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS IS NOT A
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH HIGHER LFCS AND LOWER 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEASONALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING
WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE JUST EAST OF SURFACE
TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. I CONSIDERED KEEPING
FORECAST DRY...WITH DUE TO QUESTIONS ON CAP STRENGTH AND LACK OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL (HIGHER DCAPE VALUES) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE CAP
WEAKENS. FOR NOW I JUST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION TO THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ADVERTISED.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET...SO I HAVE
THIS ENDING BY 03Z.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY...RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. WITH
MAXIMIZED MIXING WE COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 105 ON THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE (PRIMARILY IN OUR EASTER CWA). STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN OK ON MONDAY
WILL KEEP POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVG FOR MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND
ELONGATE EARLY TUESDAY AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO ROTATE ALONG
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. POPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED NIGHT
INTO THURS MORNING WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AS A
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. GOOD MOISTURE AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE TUES THROUGH FRI.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

GLD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN
07-09Z AS CONDITIONS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY MVFR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS.

MCK WILL START OUT VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-16Z
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING IFR BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AS FOG AND LOWER
CEILINGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN
BY 16Z AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE
A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE
EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY
CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST
KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP
THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION
OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR
WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY...
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD
OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND
NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE...
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN
OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO
ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END
UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE
HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE
NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL
COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW
TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM
TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN...
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO
MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR
AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.

THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO
DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION
MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT
THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR
THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE
REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG IT...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE FORECAST THAN
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING FOR A
TIME...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH
ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LATER WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

319 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

5H shortwave trof over Missouri early this morning has been
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Show-Me State through
the night. Model guidance have a pretty good handle on this
feature, moving it eastward into the Ohio Valley today along the
edge of an expansive upper ridge over the southeast United States.
The SPC SREF and RAP have been verifying the best overnight and are
the models of choice for today.

Although the winds aloft will be slightly weaker today than
yesterday, and sounding progs suggest there won`t be as much of a
dry layer aloft or as much DCAPE today compared to yesterday, there
is still come concern associated with the incoming disturbance. The
wave will be entering the region at or near peak heating with lifted
index values around -5C and CAPE in the vicinity of 2000 J/kg. There
will also be what is left of an old surface boundary draped
east-west roughly along the Ohio River, and precipitable water
numbers around two inches. So, robust thunderstorm development will
still be possible, and some of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Freezing levels are rather high for much of a large hail threat.
Though low level helicity and 0-6km bulk shear aren`t particularly
impressive, storms near the surface boundary and storm interactions
will need to be watched for any signs of rotation.

Locally torrential downpours will be possible in the juicy
atmosphere. After discussion with ILN and JKL, decided to hold off
on a Flash Flood Watch for now. Most FFG numbers in the area of
potentially heavy rain are fairly high, and flash flooding problems
are expected to be local, under the heaviest cores. Nevertheless, if
training starts to become a problem, a headline may be issued later.

The presence of clouds and convection will greatly influence
temperatures today, but in general will aim for highs in the 80s.
Southern Kentucky will be south of the main shower/storm activity
for much of the day so 90 degrees will be attainable there once
again.

Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the
overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70.

On Saturday we will sit on the northeast edge of the retrograding
southern U.S. upper ridge. Isolated thunderstorm development can`t
be entirely ruled out in this pattern, so will hold on to a small
chance of storms. The best chances will be from southern Indiana to
the northern Blue Grass, where the GFS and NAM12 show a weak wave
moving through. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s to
around 90.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

The synoptic pattern Saturday night is expected to feature an upper
level ridge centered over Texas with embedded shortwave troughs
riding the periphery from the central Plains, Upper Midwest and
lower Great Lakes. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over
the local area with mild/humid conditions in place.

A complex of storms is likely to initiate across parts of the Upper
Midwest and lower Great Lakes Saturday night and then track
east/southeastward. The storm complex would likely be on a weakening
trend through the night and some of the guidance suggests it could
approach southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky by sunrise
Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty, kept POPs in the chance
range over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on
lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For Sunday, another impulse in the upper levels will slide through
Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon/evening hours. Timing during
peak heating with modest instability values across the area should
yield scattered showers/storms, especially along and north of the KY
parkways. Highs mid 80s to low 90s, warmest across south-central
Kentucky where less clouds and a lesser chance of rain will exist.

Monday into much of next week, further retrogression of the upper
ridge will channel shortwave trough energy over the lower Ohio
Valley. Several impulses look to pass over the region, inducing
periodic rounds of showers/storms, some strong at times, throughout
the week. Timing these waves still pose a challenge, but for now,
model guidance in agreement showing one arriving Monday
afternoon/evening. Again, combination of peak heating, modest
instability and upper level support should fuel scattered storms,
some of which will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.

For Tuesday through Thursday, model differences creep up as the
10.00z GFS is more unsettled showing numerous shortwaves in the
upper level flow. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with these
features. Will advertise 30-50 percent POPs each day with
temperatures right around normal. In between shortwaves, if clouds
clear out and timing is right, highs could easily reach the low/mid
90s especially across the south. This would make for some hot and
humid conditions with heat indices approaching 100 to 103 during the
afternoon. Plan on mild/muggy nights with lows in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 127 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning
in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and
interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary
across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward
into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of
thunderstorms. Considered going with a prevailing TSRA at SDF during
the early to mid afternoon hours, but since it`s still a ways off
decided to stick with VCTS and watch model and radar trends between
now and the 12Z package.

Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving
us with quiet weather tonight.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

255 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH MORNING.
ALSO TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

INTERESTING EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THINGS VERY
WELL...SURPRISE. FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN IL TO JUST SOUTH OF
ELIZABETHTOWN TO LEX...TO IOB AND THEN SYM TO SOUTH OF CRW.
RELATIVELY WEAK H925-H850 FLOW IS SETTING UP SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER MO/IL. FLOW THEN BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT OWENSBORO EASTWARD. ADD TO THE
MIX A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...OBVIOUSLY
CONCERN IS THAT TRAINING MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT SOME
LOCATIONS. PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM LIFTS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...THE HRRR TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE ECMWF...
GFS...AND RAP SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH STAYS PUT. MODELS
ALSO SEEM TO BE A LITTLE SLOW MOVING A WAVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE HRRR IS BEGINNING TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...
POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE TRAINING HOWEVER AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY...HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

INTERESTING EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THINGS VERY
WELL...SUPRISE. FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN IL TO JUST SOUTH OF
ELIZABETHTOWN TO LEX...TO IOB AND THEN SYM TO SOUTH OF CRW. RELATIVELY
WEAK H925-H850 FLOW IS SETTING UP SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVER MO/IL. FLOW THEN BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT OWENSBORO EASTWARD. ADD TO THE MIX A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...OBVIOUSLY
CONCERN IS THAT TRAINING MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT
SOME LOCATIONS. PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH RESPECT TO MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. NAM LIFTS THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...THE HRRR TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE ECMWF...
GFS...AND RAP SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH STAYS PUT. MODELS
ALSO SEEM TO BE A LITTLE SLOW MOVING A WAVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE HRRR IS BEGINNING TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...
POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE TRAINING HOWEVER AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY...HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

341 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR FRESNO CA WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
OF AROUND 89 DEGREES IS REACHED. HRRR DOES INDICATE HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS WITH PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 22Z. WSR-88D THIS MORNING SHOWS
A FEW TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS
EXPECTED UNDER A RIDGE AS LOW TO MID 90S ARE RECORDED AGAIN TODAY.
/KEG/

.LONG TERM...
OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST
AND CENTER OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR KAMA. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SOME SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY VORT MAX/SHORT WAVES THAT
MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME
SUPPORT FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A DOWNBURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER TSTMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE SE LA/MS GULF
COAST. SPC HAS SOME OF THIS AREA OUTLOOKED AS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 100 TO 105 MARK.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THIS SAME PATTERN THROUGH 200
HOURS WITH SOME BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
RUN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WHERE THE EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
"POPCORN" SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH
DAY ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. /KEG/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KHUM AND
KMCB. CONVECTION COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/

.MARINE...OVERALL NOT MUCH TO REALLY DISCUSS WITH REPSECT TO THE
MARINE FCST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 6-12KTS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE NEAR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS
WHICH WOULD PROVIDELOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 20 10
BTR 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 10
ASD 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 10
MSY 91 77 92 77 / 30 10 20 10
GPT 89 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10
PQL 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1157 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

BYRD

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.LONG TERM: (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

AREA OF RAIN...WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...IS MOVING
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THIS AREA OF RAIN, BUT KUUV IS REPORTING 600FT
OVERCAST AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS OBVOUSLY SOME EMBEDDED LOW
STRATUS. SHOULD SEE MVFR AND THEN IFR SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS ONLY NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS STAYING IN LOW MVFR CATEGORY. THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, BUT TRAILING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF IF NOT
ALL OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE
MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AND INTO VFR CATEGORY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

KUUV ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAMBERT REPORTED 600FT OVERCAST
CEILINGS WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN, SO WILL START LAMBERT OUT WITH A
TEMPO FOR IFR CEILNIGS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME VARIABILITY FOR
A FEW HOURS, WITH IFR SETTLING DOWN BY 10-12Z. THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, BUT TRAILING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF IF NOT
ALL OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE
MORNING FOR CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AND INTO VFR CATEGORY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.

CARNEY

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-
WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR JEFFERSON MO-ST.
CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR RANDOLPH IL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-
FAYETTE IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
WASHINGTON IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

327 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...FIRST STARTING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING...THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THE MONSOONAL PLUME
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND HEATING UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS PAST
WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO.

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WANE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT....ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM...LIKELY ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET...THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW STORMS POP UP...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF
THAT. OTHER MODELS...HOWEVER...SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM...LIMITING CONVECTION. DO SEE SOME DRYING ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO SUSPECT THAT STORMS WILL BE EARLIER RATHER
THAN LATER ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THANKS TO A VORT MAX IN THE SW FLOW. SHOULD
HAVE DECENT STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD
HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH WITH THAT SAID...SOILS
ARE SATURATED AND IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH WATER TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS.

THE UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND... PUSHING THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PLUME WESTWARD. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE...SO SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN NM. THUS...BEST
STORM CHANCES WILL BE THERE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
CLIMB...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE MONDAY AND MORESO ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
OTHERWISE...THE HIGH WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IT MAY SHIFT JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND ON
OCCASION. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO AT LEAST
NW NM BY MID WEEK AS MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND FLATENNED. EC IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
HIGH...SO TIME WILL TELL. DOES LOOK LIKE IT WONT BE AS ACTIVE NEXT
WEEK AS IT HAS BEEN THIS PAST WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER JET RELATED TO UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO COLORADO AND
WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE EARLY THIS MORNING
WESTERN NM SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS SUGGEST DEW POINTS MAY STILL MIX OUT SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST...BUT
THIS TREND DID NOT WORK OUT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME
30S DEW POINTS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS MORNING SO
PERHAPS THE MODELS WILL BE END UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY TODAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND A SLOWLY WESTWARD SHIFTING UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TEND
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MORE DIRECTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO. BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED PROCESS AND
OVERALL THE WEEK LOOKS LESS ACTIVE THAN THE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
MODELS STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING ALONG/WEST OF THE
BAJA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
NEW MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WARM
CLOSER TO...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES
SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS DRIER NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL RECOVERIES REMAIN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND
SATURDAY THEN LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT IMPROVE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN TS/SH COVERAGE THROUGH 08/09Z WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS WHICH INCLUDES IMPACTS TO TCC. ANOTHER BATCH OF SEMI
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCT SH AND ISOLD TS WILL BE
FOUND CROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. IMPACTS TO GUP/FMN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT PRETTY HIT AND MISS. EVENTUALLY ABQ/AEG SHOULD SEE
SOME SH DVLPMENT BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER. CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP IN EARNEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL MTNS LATE
MORN/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OUT IN COVERAGE. DOESNT APPEAR TO
BE AS MUCH COVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED TODAY SO USING
VCTS/VCSH. ROW/TCC HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF DIRECT TS HOWEVER AND
LASTING WELL INTO TMRW EVE. HAVE SCALED BACK MVFR CIG POTENTIAL AT
TCC LATE TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 81 55 86 58 / 30 10 10 20
DULCE........................... 74 46 78 48 / 40 30 20 30
CUBA............................ 74 49 77 52 / 50 40 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 79 48 84 53 / 30 10 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 75 49 81 52 / 40 20 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 78 50 83 54 / 30 30 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 76 52 81 55 / 30 20 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 81 55 85 58 / 30 20 40 40
CHAMA........................... 72 44 74 46 / 50 40 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 55 78 57 / 50 50 40 40
PECOS........................... 74 52 78 54 / 50 50 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 48 75 51 / 30 30 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 66 43 70 46 / 40 30 30 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 46 72 48 / 50 40 30 30
TAOS............................ 78 47 79 51 / 30 30 10 20
MORA............................ 74 50 77 52 / 50 50 40 40
ESPANOLA........................ 80 54 84 56 / 40 40 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 77 56 81 57 / 40 40 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 55 84 57 / 30 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 81 60 84 63 / 40 40 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 63 86 66 / 30 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 60 87 63 / 30 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 61 86 64 / 30 30 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 60 86 63 / 30 30 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 82 61 86 63 / 30 30 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 84 62 88 63 / 30 30 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 56 80 58 / 50 50 30 40
TIJERAS......................... 79 56 83 59 / 40 50 30 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 52 83 54 / 40 40 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 77 55 80 57 / 50 50 30 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 56 80 59 / 50 50 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 61 84 61 / 50 50 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 74 57 75 57 / 60 70 60 40
CAPULIN......................... 78 54 82 57 / 30 30 20 20
RATON........................... 82 54 85 55 / 30 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 83 56 86 58 / 30 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 53 81 55 / 40 40 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 84 61 92 64 / 20 30 10 10
ROY............................. 81 58 86 61 / 30 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 86 64 91 66 / 40 30 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 85 62 89 64 / 50 40 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 65 94 67 / 40 40 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 84 63 89 64 / 50 50 20 10
PORTALES........................ 84 65 90 65 / 50 50 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 64 88 65 / 50 40 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 88 66 93 67 / 50 50 20 10
PICACHO......................... 81 61 85 61 / 60 50 40 20
ELK............................. 76 59 79 58 / 60 60 40 30

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PENDLETON OR

1022 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 100-150 TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCT
SHOWERS MAINLY IMPACTING RDM BDN. WEST WINDS 15-25KT AT DLS.
OTHERWISE WINDS 5-10KT TONIGHT AND 10-20KT FRIDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-
640>645.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ643-645.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ030.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

557 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RIDE FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPECTACULAR DAWN PAINTING THE THIN CIRRUS DECK BRIGHT ORANGE AND
SHADES OF PINK BENEATH THE BACKGROUND OF BLUE.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE
TODAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

00Z GEFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WOULD IMPLY INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CLOUDS
VERY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE.

AFTER SOME PATCHY LARGE STREAM/RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES OVER
THE NEXT 3 HOURS...EXPECT A NICE END TO THE WORK WEEK WEATHER-WISE
WITH PLENTY OF SUN...WARM TEMPS AND JUST A LIGHT NWRLY BREEZE.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 14C SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE M80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES CREEPING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE PENN TURNPIKE EARLY SAT MORNING. A BLEND OF
THE OPER 06Z NAM...THE 03Z SREF...THE 00Z GEFS...AND HRRR POINT
TWD CONDITIONS STAYING TOTALLY DRY TODAY AND SATURDAY NEAR...AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN /PERHAPS UP TO 0.10 OF AN INCH/ LATE
TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE COOL U40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE MID 60S ON THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NORTH WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE THE SW 1/4 TO 1/3 OF PENN WILL SEE PERIODS OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND THE CHC FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY SAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SCOOTS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH ACRS WVA AND NRN VA.

HIGH TEMPS SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
RESIDES WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA
COAST...WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH
THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES
DIMINISHED THE ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND
LONG TERM.

AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE
REGION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW
INVERSION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOWER
STRATUS. KBFD HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KJST
TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

OVER CENTRAL AIRFIELDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES.

DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING IMPROVING AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WEST.
SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
MON-NIGHT-TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WITH RESTRICTIONS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

317 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONLY REAL MENTIONABLE FORECAST VARIABLE TODAY IS THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS SOMEWHAT OF
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THESE AREAS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST PRESSURE FALLS AND THE ORIENTATION
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT APPEARS A BIT OF A ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT MAY BE IN PLAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 18Z
TODAY. A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE MAXIMUM WAS
DEPICTED IN THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE RAP MODEL AND
WITH GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING 15+ KT WINDS ALREADY IN
PLACE...THOUGHT GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 30 MPH WAS VALID.

THERE STILL EXISTS A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AS SOME SEE BREEZE
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES WITH
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING DOESNT BODE WELL FOR THUNDER
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT. WENT
AHEAD AND LEFT ISO TRW IN JUST IN CASE BUT BASICALLY...THE ONLY
REASON ITS BEING MENTIONED IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO OTHER POP IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEP AND STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PARK ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AND MEANDER AROUND THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS ATTEMPTING TO
ADVERTISE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE ABANDONED
THAT THINKING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE AREA.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND MOISTURE DECREASING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING DEL
RIO...WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ASSUMING
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY.

PWAT VALUES IN THE LONG RANGE GFS BOUNCE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING GETTING PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WITH POPS ABSENT
FROM THE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND RH VALUES DECREASING
PROGRESSIVELY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SKEDADDLE...A FOCUS ON HOW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR
THE LATTER PART OF JULY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 73 92 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 72 93 / 0 - 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 71 90 72 94 / 0 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 74 93 75 96 / 0 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 90 73 93 / 0 - - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 91 72 94 / 0 - - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 91 73 93 / - - 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 74 91 74 92 / 10 - 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 91 74 94 / 0 - - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 94 / 0 - - 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

155 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FOLLOWED THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WHICH DIFFER ON
HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS IN SE WV MAKE IT. THE HRRR KEEPS IT
STREAMING EAST TO LYH BY 08Z...WHILE THE RAP DRIES IT OUT. WITH
NIGHTTIME WESTERLY FLOW SOMETIMES CAN SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT
INTO THE FOOTHILLS SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT NEAR
LYH.

NO OTHER CHANGES...BUT ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THROUGH THE MORNING A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT LWB/BLF...POSSIBLY
HITTING ROANOKE BUT OVERALL CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR.

WITH SOME BREAKS AFTER THE RAIN...FOG POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER
LWB/BLF...THOUGH THINK IT WILL BE LIMITED TO IFR AT TIMES.

MODELS TODAY WORK AN BAND OF STORMS FROM ERN KY INTO SRN
VA...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE IT EXACTLY LINES UP.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TAKES THE HIGHER THREAT FROM BLF-BCB/DAN.
CONFIDENCE THIS EARLY IS THAT AT LEAST VCTS WILL BE OBSERVED NEAR
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS LYH. WILL NOT THROW ANY TEMPO GROUPS
THIS FAR OUT...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
SIGMETS AND RADAR/TAF TRENDS LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE VFR.

THE CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH VFR
EXPECTED...THOUGH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS AT AIRPORTS THAT GET
RAIN LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER RESIDUAL AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO AREAS NORTH OF LYH/ROA BY 12Z SAT. THIS
COULD HINDER FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE AT LWB...AND POSSIBLY
BCB.

OUTFLOW INTERACTING WITH RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
MORE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER...WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS AT TIMES...EXCEPT IF ANY HEAVIER
RAIN MOVES ACROSS.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS MONDAY...BUT TIMING OF
SUCH SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE EVENTS THIS FAR OUT IS NOT PRACTICAL.
BEST TO SAY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDING SQUARELY OVER THE CWA MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING LWB/BCB/LYH.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1150 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WITH
THE IMPULSE TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS/IMPULSE WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AT ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

BACKED OFF ON VALLEY FOG AT KLSE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST VAD
WIND PROFILE FROM THE RADAR SEEMS TO CONFIRM EARLIER FORECAST
GUIDANCE...SHOWING WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KTS AT 2000
FT AGL. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED WINDS FROM THIS LEVEL
EXTENDING DOWNWARD TO THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THESE
STRONGER WINDS...COMBINED WITH A 10.04Z KLSE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
OF 8 DEGREES SHOULD LIMIT EXTENSIVE FOG FORMATION. AS A RESULT...
WILL CONFINE LOWER MVFR VISIBILITY/IFR CEILINGS TO A TWO-HOUR
TEMPO GROUP FROM 10.11Z TO 10.13Z...ALTHOUGH THIS STILL MAY BE TOO
BULLISH. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KLSE/KRST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

327 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND
WITH DECREASING STORM COVERAGE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND
AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR
DAYS NOW RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF DIVERGENCE UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER FORCING AND CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE
(CURRENTLY AROUND 0.80" PWAT IN RENO), SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA
AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE WEAK UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SO STORMS
WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY, WITH ANY ACCELERATED MOVEMENT RELIANT
ON UNPREDICTABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.

SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ONCE AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN SCARS, DOWNSTREAM OF STEEP
TERRAIN IN DRAINAGE BASINS, AS WELL AS IN URBANIZED POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS. GIVEN THE RECENT ISSUES IN DOUGLAS COUNTY, NEAR SIX-MILE
CANYON (AROUND STOREY-LYON COUNTY LINE) AND IN SPARKS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AREA IS DEEMED TO HAVE THE
LARGEST POTENTIAL/POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER,
NOTE THAT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

GOING INTO THIS EVENING, THE 3-KM HRRR AND NAM IMPLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE TOWARDS LOVELOCK
AND FALLON. OUTFLOWS YESTERDAY BROUGHT A HABOOB WITH VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 50 YARDS PER A SPOTTER REPORT FROM LOVELOCK. IF A LARGE
OUTFLOW OCCURS AGAIN TODAY, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING
DUST AFFECTING I-80 AND PERHAPS HIGHWAY 50. WHILE THIS IS
CONVECTIVELY DEPENDENT/UNCERTAIN, IT WAS WORTH THROWING BLOWING
DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS A HEADS UP FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE.

SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
CONUS WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT WHICH MAY RESTRICT
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL HANGING
AROUND AT LEAST A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF LASSEN-NORTHERN
WASHOE AND MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER TODAY SO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO WANE ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS GOING
NORTH OF I-80. HOWEVER, RECENT NAM RUNS ARE DRAGGING THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEVADA. I HAVE BEGUN THE
TREND OF BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH BUT HAVE NOT GONE
FULL BORE ON THE NAM QUITE YET. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NEXT WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN THIS WEEK AS A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNS TO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY BRING WEAK LATE DAY ZEPHYR
BREEZES TO NORTHEAST CA AND FAR WESTERN NV, THEN FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OVERALL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS
ARE PROBABLE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AS A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, BUT
MID LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITED FORCING SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS 85-90 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS ON MONDAY, THEN RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER-
MID 90S IN WESTERN NV AND 80-85 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MJD

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH ABOUT 30-40%
PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE MAIN TERMINALS. INITIAL CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 18-20Z NEAR THE SIERRA THEN 1-2 HOURS LATER FOR
WESTERN NV. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY,
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT. MOST CELLS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN BY 01Z NEAR THE SIERRA AND 04Z IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN
NV. FOR SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED WITH LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING THE MAIN
TERMINALS.

AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR PREVENTED FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK, BUT SOME CLEARING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITH RH NEAR 100% SO
FOG REMAINS LIKELY BETWEEN 12-16Z. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN AT KTRK
LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AM MAINLY BETWEEN 09-16Z. MJD

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
NVZ003.

CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND TODAY WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AS SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE. AN INLAND
TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 500 MB RIDGE IS PARKED ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA JUST A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WARM AIR DESCENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR ALL REGIONS INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING MEASURED AN 850 MB
TEMPERATURE OF +19C...PRECISELY WHAT BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM
MODELS FORECAST. THIS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO OUR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY.

DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON (MIXED-LAYER CAPE EASILY 2500 J/KG) PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT DUE TO THE RIDGE WILL LESSEN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND RAP SHOW VERY
MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN THE LCL AND LFC...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WHICH USUALLY MEANS CUMULUS
CLOUDS MAY ENTRAIN TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO GROW TALLER. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE WRF-NMM CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...
AND INDEED IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG
THE ONLY AVAILABLE SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE 20 POP FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL GEORGIA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.

TONIGHT...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND PLENTY OF
SINKING MOTION WITHIN THE VERTICAL...LINGERING CONVECTION FAR INLAND
THIS EVENING WILL COME TO AN END BY 9 OR 10 PM WITH NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TO DEVELOP. WINDS WON/T ENTIRELY DECOUPLE FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION AND GIVEN THE WARMTH OF TODAY WILL LIMIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LIKELY
ENHANCING THE SFC THROUGH INLAND AND PRODUCING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
INTO AN MCS THAT PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BEST CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP HAS NOW BEEN ADDED. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A WEAKENED SFC LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES
TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES
ROUND THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY FLOW COULD
LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER TO START OFF THE WEEK...IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A MID LVL TROUGH STRENGTHENS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ABSORBING A TUTT LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND WHILE THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS DEEPER MOISTURE TO
THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THE INLAND TROUGH INCHES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST BY
THE WEEKEND...LIMITING OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WARMEST OVER INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES OF ANY DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS TOO LOW TO SHOW AT
THIS TIME. BUT SHOULD ANY OCCUR THE MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE FROM
19-22Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...PROVIDING A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE SC/GA COASTAL WATERS. THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BACK WIND DIRECTIONS MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR
THE COAST WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE NORTH INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS CHARLESTON HARBOR DUE
TO INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE RIDGE. THE LATEST WAVE OBSERVATION
FROM THE EDISTO BUOY IS 3.5 FOOT SEAS PRIMARILY AT A 5 SECOND
PERIOD...SUPPORTIVE OF 2-3 FOOT SEAS INSIDE THE 0-20 MILE COASTAL
WATERS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
MORNING UPDATE.

TONIGHT...THE INLAND TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. SOUTH/SW WINDS
WILL FEEL SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING EFFECTS...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES OVER
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15
KTS NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20 KTS NEAR SEABREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL SURGES...ESPECIALLY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE COULD SEE A
FEW 25 KT WIND GUSTS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES EACH NIGHT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT THIS WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD TO 2-4 FT. WE COULD SEE 5 FT SEAS IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING
NORTH TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN KANSAS. THIS IS
IMPACTING THE KGLD TERMINAL WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. WHILE STILL NOT
REFLECTING THE IMPACTS OF THE FOG/STRATUS SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG LOCATION/TIMING...AND SHOWS
THIS FOG/STRATUS TRANSITIONING NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE FRONT LIFTS...EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE KMCK TERMINAL. LOWEST
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY AS A RESULT IN THE
CHANGING AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY AS
GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS POORLY SO FAR.

AFTER FOG/STRATUS LIFTS THIS MORNING...THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME HIGHEST CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE IS AT KMCK...SO I INTRODUCED
VCTS GROUP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING...SO IT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT KMCK AROUND 03Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND HEADING EAST. UPDATE WAS SENT TO
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINE UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. IF TRAINING STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...FLOODING
WOULD BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS...FLOW ALOFT IS
ALLOWING A RAPID MOVEMENT OF CELLS WHICH LIMITS THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS
THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING
UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE
A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE
EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY
CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

SOME IFR AND MVFR FOG AROUND THE SOUTHERN SITES RIGHT NOW...BUT
THAT SHOULD CLEAR UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS IS
STILL TO UNCERTAIN TO GO WITH A PREVAILING WITH TSRA ATTM SO VCTS
WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR THIS UPDATE. THE CONVECTION WANES LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
ALL SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120.

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1133 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

Small, but intense bowing segment continues to push eastward across
north-central KY. This storm did have supercellular characteristics
as it went through eastern Meade county, the Fort Knox area, and
through Bullitt county. The cell has bowed out now with a bookend
vortex on the north side heading through Shelby county. This will
head east-northeast through the rest of Shelby and into southern
Henry and western Franklin county over the next 30-45 minutes.

Convective line is moving steadily eastward at 45-48 knots. Based
on this speed, it would impact the Lexington metro and the Kentucky
Horse Park area in the next 30-35 minutes. We expect damaging winds
to be the primary threat with this activity...though an isolated
spinup could still occur.

Elsewhere, stratiform rain continues out behind the main convective
line. This will continue to move eastward as well. So the western
and southern areas of the forecast area will remain generally dry
for the next few hours. Additional convection is likely to develop
across central and southern KY this afternoon. This activity will
be aided by any outflows from the current convection going across
north-central and east-central KY and by strong surface heating.
Damaging winds will still be the primary threat.

Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch #400 is in effect until 400 PM
EDT. Will be monitoring convective trends for any expansions or
extensions in time later this afternoon.

Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

Early morning surface analysis reveals a surface frontal boundary
bisecting the region. Convection out across southwest Indiana
continues to move eastward at a good clip. The convection will help
re-enforce this boundary this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity this morning.
The highest risk of heavy rain/flash flooding will generally be
north of a line from Hartford (Ohio County) to Georgetown (Scott
County). Some of this convection may approach severe limits in the
next hour or so. Model proximity soundings show a bit of a stable
layer near the surface up near the Ohio River. However, as you get
closer to the WK and BG Parkways, the stable layer erodes a bit.

Once this convection moves out by late morning, we`ll continue to
see a destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
A mid-level wave out across Missouri will move eastward across the
region this afternoon that will force ascent across the region.
Higher dewpoints to the south/southwest should advect northward into
the region which should allow decent instability to develop across
the region. Afternoon CAPE values should approach 1700-2100 J/KG
combined with 35-40kts of bulk shear would be enough to produce
severe convection. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values are forecast from
our local and national high res WRF models to be in excess of 1000
J/KG, thus another round of wind damage looks to be in the cards
with this afternoon`s convection.

Current thinking is that additional convection will fire along and
south of the WK and BG Parkways this afternoon and steadily move
eastward. Convection looks to favor a mix of multi-cells and bowing
line segments containing damaging winds. Area at most risk for
seeing severe weather this afternoon would be in areas along an
south of the Ohio River. A gradual weakening will occur later
tonight, but it will lag well behind sunset.

Given this mornings convection moving across southern Indiana and
the expected convection to develop across much of KY this afternoon,
have gone ahead and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the northern
2/3rds of the forecast area. It does appear that we`ll see a fine
gradient of where the rain does fall and areas down along the KY/TN
border may not see much rain at all...but once you head north of the
Cumberland Parkway, this afternoon`s convection may end up being a
bunch of line segments training over the same areas...increasing the
flood threat. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches will likely be common,
though isolated swaths of 3-4 inches are not out of the question
where training of convection occurs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

Tonight showers and storms will slowly diminish through the
overnight hours as the wave exits to the east. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 635 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

An upper wave sparking showers and thunderstorms early this morning
in Missouri will track east today. As it encounters unstable air and
interacts with what`s left of a weak east-west surface boundary
across northern Kentucky, showers and storms will spread eastward
into the Commonwealth. SDF and LEX stand the best shot of
thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with gusty
winds and very heavy rain. Though prevailing conditions will be VFR,
individual storms will bring vsbys well below VFR.

Afternoon storms should move off to the east this evening, leaving
us with quiet weather tonight. We will again face the possibility of
patchy fog and/or low clouds towards morning.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-063>067.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

948 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2015