Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/09/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
849 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO THE GRIDS AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE PLAINS BUT NOTHING ELSE MAJOR. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP AS WELL AS EARLIER CIRA SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT SOME DRIBBLES AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN
THINGS MID MORNING PRIOR TO THE NEXT ROUND FIRING UP AROUND
MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS THE MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN
PLAINS. RAIN FALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ABLE TO REACH OVER AN INCH IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
STREET FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
TONIGHT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY PROGRESS
EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASED BR AND HAZE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR TOMORROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THAT WILL MOVE FLOW MORE WESTERLY
THURSDAY BEFORE GOING BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL HELP TO CUT OFF A BIT OF THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
HEATING AND FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE BY 18Z. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE. MAIN THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1 INCH AND GUSTY
WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL
HEATING AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DRIER AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
BEST THREAT OF TSTMS WILL BE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH JUST ISOLD
POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHIFTS BACK TO OVER NEW MX/TX. BY SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 90...WITH JUST ISOLD TSTMS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WILL WORK ITS WAY UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO COLORADO.
AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT TO KEEP
LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES MAY REMAIN
LOW DUE TO HAZY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED AFTER AROUND 18Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE...AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM NEAR
1 INCH IN THE MORNING UP TO 1.12 INCHES ABOUT 21Z. THE BEST UPLIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS WILL BE OVER NW CO EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT CO ZONE 12 IN THE ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW SO LONGER DURATION SHOWERS AND
PROBLEMS FROM EXCESS RUNOFF ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE AS THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH
KEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO SE UT AND SW COIN
THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HRRR SOLUTION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND TRANSITORY RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM AZ THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT...
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN BENEATH CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MAY GET PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHEARS NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT CLEAR AS
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TYPICALLY DO NOT TRACK INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER THERE IS FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. "DRIER" DOES NOT MEAN DRY
AS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD STILL OCCUR TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE AND SW COLORADO. ONCE THE PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
DOWNSTREAM...THE MONSOON REASSERTS ITSELF AND EXPECT THE MOISTURE
STREAM FROM MEXICO TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THOUGH
MOUNTAINS REMAIN FAVORED...A NUMBER OF AIRPORTS WILL EXPERIENCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. AIRPORTS WITH ILS BREAKPOINTS AT
OR ABOVE 4500 FEET MAY BE BRIEFLY IMPACTED. EXPECT A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SUSTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HRRR STILL HINTING AT A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO
THE SW OF DENVER WHICH COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT WOULD HINDER FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT WITH PWS STILL HOVERING AROUND 1.15 INCHES
COULD DROP UP TO AN INCH IN 1 HOUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SMOKE
FROM CANADA THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS
DISSIPATED TO AN EXTENT BUT LOW LEVEL HAZE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS VS CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM
DENVER EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO LIFT. SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EARLY MORNING...ONLY TO INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE SPONSORED BY A BIT
OF LIFT SUPPLIED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT
WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALSO WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE A
DENVER CYCLONE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBILITY
OF A LANDSPOUT TORNADO. OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LOW TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...BUT ALSO SPREAD
EAST TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL NON-DIURNAL PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE RATHER LOW BUT HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE CONVECTION. AS THE WEEK WEARS ON THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO COLORADO BRING MONSOON-
LIKE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
DIURNAL PATTERN OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE BEST AREAS TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUCH AS
PARK COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 921 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VIS WILL HOVER AROUND 3-5 SM WITH HAZE
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE SW OF DENVER WITH A POSSIBLE CYCLONE BUT
WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AIRPORT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND 21 TO 22Z WITH MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT. WINDS AT THE AIRPORT
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE...AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM NEAR
1 INCH IN THE MORNING UP TO 1.12 INCHES ABOUT 21Z. THE BEST UPLIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS WILL BE OVER NW CO EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT CO ZONE 12 IN THE ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW SO LONGER DURATION SHOWERS AND
PROBLEMS FROM EXCESS RUNOFF ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE AS THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH
KEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO SE UT AND SW COIN
THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HRRR SOLUTION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND TRANSITORY RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM AZ THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT...
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN BENEATH CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MAY GET PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHEARS NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT CLEAR AS
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TYPICALLY DO NOT TRACK INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER THERE IS FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. "DRIER" DOES NOT MEAN DRY
AS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD STILL OCCUR TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE AND SW COLORADO. ONCE THE PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
DOWNSTREAM...THE MONSOON REASSERTS ITSELF AND EXPECT THE MOISTURE
STREAM FROM MEXICO TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND BY LATE MORNING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BRINGS
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 15Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NRN HALF AFTER 17Z WITH NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA
AND LOCAL CIGS BKN030CB. ISOLATED +TSRA/+SHRA IS EXPECTED WITH
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AND LOCALIZED G25-30KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 17Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE...AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM NEAR
1 INCH IN THE MORNING UP TO 1.12 INCHES ABOUT 21Z. THE BEST UPLIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS WILL BE OVER NW CO EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT CO ZONE 12 IN THE ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW SO LONGER DURATION SHOWERS AND
PROBLEMS FROM EXCESS RUNOFF ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE AS THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH
KEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO SE UT AND SW COIN
THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HRRR SOLUTION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND TRANSITORY RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM AZ THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT...
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN BENEATH CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MAY GET PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHEARS NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT CLEAR AS
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TYPICALLY DO NOT TRACK INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER THERE IS FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. "DRIER" DOES NOT MEAN DRY
AS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD STILL OCCUR TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE AND SW COLORADO. ONCE THE PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
DOWNSTREAM...THE MONSOON REASSERTS ITSELF AND EXPECT THE MOISTURE
STREAM FROM MEXICO TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY BRINGS AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NRN
HALF AFTER 17Z WITH NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA AND LOCAL CIGS BKN030CB.
ISOLATED +TSRA/+SHRA IS EXPECTED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AND
LOCALIZED G25-30KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY
CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY NUMEROUS OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL THIS REGION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN POPS SLOWLY DECREASE. ENOUGH SUNSHINE HAS
OCCURRED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE RAPIDLY...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGHS
FOR TODAY BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE
80S ACROSS VALLEYS LOCATIONS...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE NEARBY APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS
MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...PWAT VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THESE
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN
EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE OF RATHER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW
FOR TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...AND WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.
SKIES TODAY LOOK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...BEFORE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON JUST
HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.
MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH LATER TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE
TAF SITES WED MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY...AND LARGELY
DEPEND ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF BETWEEN 10Z-15Z/WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
TOWARD AND ESP AFTER 18Z/WED.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...IT APPEARS THAT AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD ONLY REMAIN ISOLATED. SO...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN
TAFS...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT 5-
10 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
THEN INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WED MORNING AT 8-
12 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.
ALSO...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AROUND
FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY FILLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING BREAKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SW VT. SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE
MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE AREAL
COVERAGE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...AND OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS AND PA.
LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE NEARBY APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS
MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...PWAT VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THESE
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN
EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE OF RATHER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW
FOR TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...AND WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.
SKIES TODAY LOOK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...BEFORE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON JUST
HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.
MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
THE MAIN SHOWER AREA WAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. EXPECTATIONS TODAY
ARE FOR THE CIGS TO REMAIN WITHIN MVFR/VFR BORDER THRESHOLDS AS
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE INCREASING WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS.
PER THE HRRR...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS WE AWAIT FOR THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AROUND
FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SOME LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND
BERKSHIRES.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND
THESE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOON. WITH THE
DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AT SOME POINT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW THEM TO HAVE A
GREATER COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM
HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...PWAT VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE
OF RATHER HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SVR STORMS AREN/T A CONCERN TODAY
THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.
SKIES TODAY LOOK TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.
MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
KPOU-KPSF. THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB
SOON THEN INTO KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH EITHER A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR. HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.
AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ...WHERE
SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND BERKSHIRES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE CATSKILLS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...ALTHOUGH
SOME 50S WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THE LONGEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL MUGGY....AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.
WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR KPOU-KPSF.
THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB SOON THEN INTO
KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH EITHER A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR. HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.
AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND ONLY
DROP TO 50-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
920 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED
JUST N OF THE FL PANHANDLE WITH A SECONDARY AXIS DRAPED ALONG THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. LIGHT BUT STEADY E/SERLY BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL PUSHED
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE W OF LAKE APOPKA BEFORE AN EARLY EVNG
COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST BREEZE OCCURRED OVER SRN LAKE/NRN POLK
COS. MERGER SPARKED A CLUSTER OF TSRAS ALONG AND W OF SR27 THAT HAS
GENERATED BTWN 1.5"-2.0" OF RAIN ALONG AN N OF SR50. LCL FLOODING
PSBLE S OF LEESBURG THRU LATE EVNG...BUT NEITHER TEMP/INSTABILITY
PROFILES NOR RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SVR WX ATTM. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
OVER LAKE CO SHOULD BURN OUT WITHIN THE HR ONCE AVAILABLE CAPE HAS
BEEN CONSUMED.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE BAHAMA BANK TO ALLOW
ISOLD SHRAS TO FORM IN ITS WAKE EDDIES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEDGE OF DRY AIR POSITIONED HUGGING THE E FL COAST
WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH AOB 60PCT... H85-H50 RH BLO 40PCT. THIS WILL
HAMPER ANY SHRAS FROM PRODUCING MEASUREABLE PRECIP ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...INDEED RADAR TREND HAS SHOWN MOST OF THESE
DISSIPATING QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OUT OF THE GULF STREAM. STILL...
LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW WILL FRESHEN AS THE NOCTURNAL BOUDNARY LYR
DVLPS...ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS ALONG THE COAST S OF
SEBASITIAN INLET THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD.
WILL DELAY THE EVNG UPDATE UNTIL CURRENT CONVECTION OVER LAKE COUNTY
DISSIPATES...BUT WILL ISSUE NLT 0230Z.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 10/00Z
SFC WNDS: THRU 09/06Z...E/SE 7-10KTS DECREASING TO AOB 3KTS...CONTG
THRU 09/13Z. BTWN 09/13Z-09/16Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 7-11KTS...CONT
THRU 10/00Z.
VSBY/WX/CIGS: THRU 09/13Z...SLGT CHC BRIEF MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB. AFT
09/17Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALNG THE ECSB W OF
KOMN-KSUA MVG W ARND 10KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE AFTN FCST. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATLC
RIDGE POSITIONED JUST N OF THE FL PANHANDLE...GENERATING A LIGHT TO
GENTLE E/SE BREEZE. DATA BUOYS MEASURING SEAS AOB 2FT WITH DOMINANT
PDS 8-9SEC. ISOLD SHRAS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE EDDIES DOWNWIND OF
THE NRN BAHAMAS BUT WILL REMAIN S OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
IMPACT WX.............VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
CONVECTION WAS FAIRLY SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THROUGH 20Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE 12Z
TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING WERE ONLY 1.55 (AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY JULY) AND THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET WITH A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.
.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGING
WILL BRING MORE SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES PEAKING AROUND 102 IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. IT WILL BE HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY]
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT TLH AND VLD TERMINALS, PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 74 94 73 94 74 / 20 30 20 30 10
PANAMA CITY 77 89 76 90 76 / 10 30 10 30 10
DOTHAN 74 95 74 94 73 / 10 20 10 30 10
ALBANY 73 95 74 96 74 / 10 30 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 72 95 73 95 74 / 20 30 20 30 20
CROSS CITY 73 92 72 93 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
APALACHICOLA 77 90 74 90 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
FRANKLIN.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CAMP/LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...CAMP/LAMERS
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT. KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD SEE THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE SETTING UP AFTER 18Z WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 23Z TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER KAPF TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VCSH
WILL IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITE. THE CEILING AND
VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE CEILING AND VIS COULD
FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM AT KAPF
TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30
MINUTES. SO WILL KEEP THE CEILING AND VIS IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME FOR KAPF TAF SITE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
THERE WAS SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH WATERSPOUTS
REPORTED OFF OF LAKE WORTH AND THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE
FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND 06Z GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING MID-MORNING ACROSS INLAND
MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE 12Z SOUNDING
ANALYSIS INDICATED A PWAT JUST SHY OF TWO INCHES AND INSTABILITY
IN GENERAL INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD START AS EARLY AS
17Z AND COULD BE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. THUS AT
17Z ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL
KAPF AROUND 18Z WITH ON-SET OF WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.
BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.
MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 79 / 60 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 40 20 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 91 79 / 50 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 76 92 75 / 60 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THERE WAS SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH WATERSPOUTS
REPORTED OFF OF LAKE WORTH AND THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE
FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND 06Z GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING MID-MORNING ACROSS INLAND
MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE 12Z SOUNDING
ANALYSIS INDICATED A PWAT JUST SHY OF TWO INCHES AND INSTABILITY
IN GENERAL INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE ALSO POSSIBLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD START AS EARLY AS
17Z AND COULD BE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. THUS AT
17Z ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL
KAPF AROUND 18Z WITH ON-SET OF WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.
BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.
MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 50 20 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 91 79 / 50 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 76 92 75 / 50 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD START AS EARLY AS
17Z AND COULD BE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. THUS AT
17Z ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL
KAPF AROUND 18Z WITH ON-SET OF WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.
BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.
MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 40 20 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 91 79 / 40 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 76 92 75 / 40 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.
BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.
MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 40 20 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 91 79 / 40 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 76 92 75 / 40 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WAS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN WE INITIALLY THOUGHT, PERHAPS
DUE TO THE CAP BEING TOO STRONG AND TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AS THE DRY LAYER WAS ABNORMALLY LOW IN HEIGHT. CONVECTION HAS
WANED WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS PRESENT. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...
DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FL. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
SURFACE-BASED CAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO 4500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. THE 500 MB TEMP ON THE MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS -9.3C/COLDEST HISTORICALLY FOR THIS
DATE. SO UPDRAFTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE AS WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK. THE THREATS WILL BE BOTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL.
THE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. TSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NOW WEST OF THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. ADDITIONAL INTENSE TSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TSTORM
OUTFLOW COULD SPAWN NEW TSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COASTS
EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION
OF AN E-SE WIND FLOW PATTERN WITH DAILY CONVECTION FOCUSED
INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND SOME NIGHTTIME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE NAVY MODEL SHOWS THE SAL IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL TOMORROW
THEN DEPARTING THE AREA ON WED WITH SAL REMAINING OVER THE CARIB
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SO A RETURN TO MORE BLUER SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA
(FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS IMPRESSED
WITH A PASSING H5 TUTT- LIKE LOW PUSHING INTO THE BAHAMAS BY
MIDWEEK...WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.5
INCHES BY FRIDAY. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MORE LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVERALL.
MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF MOSTLY 1-3 FT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 91 80 / 50 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 40 30 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 91 79 / 40 30 20 20
NAPLES 91 76 93 75 / 50 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ON TRACK. THE HRRR SOLUTION
HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR...SO EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT SCATTERED DOWNPOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND AND POTENTIALLY ADVECTS BACK OVER COASTAL AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON. TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALONG I 95 CORRIDOR
WHERE SHOWERS AND SKY COVER HAVE HAD GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL ANTICIPATED MOST EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. THUS...EXPECT A LOW SEVERE RISK...MAINLY
A RESULT OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE BIGGEST HAZARD.
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION INLAND EARLY WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUILD OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...THEN BECOME CENTERED JUST
WEST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE COAST
WITH ITS AXIS EVENTUALLY EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE/MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL GENERALLY ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT CONSIDERABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE FOR NO CONVECTION AT ALL BY FRIDAY. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE...SO WILL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING UPWARDS OF 105-107 IN SOME
SPOTS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S APPEAR REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE BECOMES REESTABLISHED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER NEAR OR EVEN
OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE FOR RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
DOES INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS AS IS
ALWAYS POSSIBLE THIS TIME WITH THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO MAYBE
EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE OF A FACTOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
CONTINUED WARMING INTO SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES INTO
NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC WITH INDICES JUST OVER 105 POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE SEABREEZE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING/COVERAGE...VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS FROM 17-21Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15
KT...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AT NIGHT WITH WEAK NOCTURNAL SURGING AND
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1203 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK...LEADING TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAP MODEL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. PWAT RANGING FROM 1.50 ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING LIFTED INDICES MINUS 6C AND SURFACE BASED CAPES 2500 TO
3000 J/KG.
THE SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY
SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS
UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
SEA BREEZE WORKS INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SCATTERED CONVECTION. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE VCNTY OF OGB AT 16Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS
OR LESS UNTIL SUNSET. A 25 KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
920 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST TODAY WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST SO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WEST AND 1.8 INCHES EAST.
THE SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
ONLY SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS
UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
SEA BREEZE WORKS INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 4000 FT DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.
LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS SUPPORTS
ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10
KNOTS OR LESS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY EVENING. A 25
KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST TODAY WHILE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST SO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WEST AND 1.8 INCHES EAST. THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT ONLY
SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS
UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
SEA BREEZE WORKS INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS SUPPORTS
ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8
KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. A 25
KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
242 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET SO SOME ISOLATED
FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME
HEAVY RAIN MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN THE GRIDS.
TODAY...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHEAST. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST SO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH
SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE
COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZE WORKS
INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG.
EVENING RAIN AROUND OGB AND AGS HAS ADDED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR AGS/OGB. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR FOG BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. LESS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SUPPORTS ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE.
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR
LESS AND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. A 25 KNOT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE I328
TO I332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
THE FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS HOWEVER ARE
NOT AS EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL AS WHAT THEY ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW, IMPROVING MOISTURE, AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO LATE MAY GIVE RISE TO
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SO WILL BE SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT WILL BE LOCATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON LOCATION OF A WEST
TO EAST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 12Z THURSDAY AND WHERE THE
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. WILL THEREFORE FOCUS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THESE LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE UPPER
LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z TUESDAY, IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF RAINFALL FOR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS LATE WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST
HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPERING
PRECIPITATION OFF AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 90S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SUSTAINED WINDS THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 77 56 81 64 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 77 56 85 65 / 10 10 30 50
LBL 78 57 83 65 / 20 10 20 50
HYS 77 56 80 63 / 10 10 10 60
P28 73 60 78 65 / 80 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE I328
TO I332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
THE FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS HOWEVER ARE
NOT AS EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL AS WHAT THEY ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW, IMPROVING MOISTURE, AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO LATE MAY GIVE RISE TO
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SO WILL BE SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT WILL BE LOCATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON LOCATION OF A WEST
TO EAST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 12Z THURSDAY AND WHERE THE
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. WILL THEREFORE FOCUS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THESE LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE UPPER
LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z TUESDAY, IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF RAINFALL FOR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS LATE WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST
HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPERING
PRECIPITATION OFF AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 90S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
FROM SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THIS
WILL LAST, ALTHOUGH LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVEMENT BY 15Z. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE
WITH TIME. WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 78 56 81 64 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 77 56 85 65 / 10 10 30 50
LBL 75 57 83 65 / 20 10 20 50
HYS 77 56 80 63 / 10 10 10 60
P28 74 60 78 65 / 80 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE 850
MB TROUGH AXIS. 700 MB TROUGH AXIS WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES SINCE 06Z
OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNRISE WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL JET BACKS TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASES FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM EMPORIA TO LAWRENCE SOUTH WITH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 ASSIGNED
THE HIGHEST POPS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FACT THAT WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING WILL
BE LOCATED. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS AS IT HAS THE BETTER LIFT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL KEEP THE BEST LIFT FOCUSED OVER MISSOURI AND,
THUS ONLY FAR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE CLIPPED BY PRECIPITATION.
HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THIS LATTER SOLUTION AND THUS HAVE TRIMMED
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION IS
LIMITED, THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S. THE CWA LOOKS TO BE BRIEFLY BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AS
THE WAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, HELPING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THERE ARE SLIGHT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS WARM FRONT AND
WHERE THE BEST ZONE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL BE, THEY ALL
SHOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION SO HAVE
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT WARM-AIR
ADVECTION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING BACK INTO THE 90S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN KS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRYER AIR. THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
HOLD ON LONGER. AT THIS TIME, AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBY AT TOP AND FOE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN
ANY CASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE I328
TO I332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
THE FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS HOWEVER ARE
NOT AS EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL AS WHAT THEY ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW, IMPROVING MOISTURE, AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO LATE MAY GIVE RISE TO
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SO WILL BE SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT WILL BE LOCATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON LOCATION OF A WEST
TO EAST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 12Z THURSDAY AND WHERE THE
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. WILL THEREFORE FOCUS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THESE LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE UPPER
LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z TUESDAY, IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF RAINFALL FOR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS LATE WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST
HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPERING
PRECIPITATION OFF AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 78 56 81 64 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 77 56 85 65 / 10 10 30 50
LBL 75 57 83 65 / 20 10 20 50
HYS 77 56 80 63 / 10 10 10 60
P28 74 60 78 65 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.
SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE 328 TO
332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 78 56 81 64 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 77 56 85 65 / 10 10 30 50
LBL 75 57 83 65 / 20 10 20 50
HYS 77 56 80 63 / 10 10 10 60
P28 74 60 78 65 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1214 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH 250MB JET STREAK LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE BASE OF THE
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER EAST A
500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A THE 700MB AND 850MB BAROCLINIC/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN AREA OF BETTER 850MB
AND 700MB MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE AT 00Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY NEAR THIS SURFACE HIGH RANGED FROM +14
TO +16C.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 80 64 88 / 10 30 50 40
GCK 55 81 64 89 / 10 40 50 30
EHA 55 85 65 90 / 10 50 50 20
LBL 56 83 66 90 / 10 50 50 20
HYS 56 80 63 84 / 10 20 60 60
P28 61 80 66 90 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN KS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRYER AIR. THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
HOLD ON LONGER. AT THIS TIME, AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBY AT TOP AND FOE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN
ANY CASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1239 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1225 PM UPDATE: OUTSIDE OF FCST HRLY TEMPS AND DWPTS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIG CHGS. NOON OBSVD
TEMPS SHOWED SEVERAL LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST ME ALREADY AT OR JUST ABV
FCST HI TEMPS IN THIS AREA...RESULTING IN US RAISING HI TEMPS
THERE 2 TO 3 DEG F AND RE-DOING FCST HRLY TEMPS WHERE WE SHOW A
LVLG OFF OF TEMPS AND THEN A GRADUAL DROP DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING
SEA BREEZE OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN A
LITTLE FASTER THEN THE PREV FCST...BUT THE RATE OF RISE SHOULD LVL
OFF SOME INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SLIDE EAST TODAY W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
APCH THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT
AND A CAP. 7 TO 8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM AS SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING
FACTOR INITIALLY WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT
FORCING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
COOLER W/THE ONSHORE WIND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER
TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A
STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT
LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF
35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL
WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1119 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 45 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDED; 1) TO ADD HAZY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY DUE TO LEFT OVR ELEVATED SMOKE FROM WRN CAN
FIRES. 2) PRODUCTION OF HIGH RESOLUTION HRLY GRIDS WHICH
DISTINGUISHES CNVCTN TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME HTG OVR THE NW LATE THIS
AFTN...POTENTIAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOVG SW TO NE OVR THE SRN PTN OF THE
FA OVRNGT FROM THE MID LVL VORT MAX FROM THE N CNTRL APLCHNS. 3)
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE N AND W VERY LATE TNGT AND ACROSS THE FAR
NE...E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WED MORN TO MIDDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN BR S/WV TRACKING EWRD
MSLY JUST N OF THE FA. THE ONLY ENHANCED WORDING WITH ANY TSTMS
FROM LATE THIS AFTN INTO WED MORN IS HVY RNFL...GIVEN LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FCST SFC OR ML CAPE DUE TO WARM MID LVL TEMPS...BUT
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED CAPE
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT INTO WED MORN.
LASTLY...WE COMPLETELY RE-DID FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU TDY AND TNGT
BASED ON CURRENT 10-11 AM OBS...FCST HI TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN THAT
WE USED YSTDY TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS ERLY WED MORN.
ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SLIDE EAST TODAY W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
APCH THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT
AND A CAP. 7 TO 8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM AS SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING
FACTOR INITIALLY WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT
FORCING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
COOLER W/THE ONSHORE WIND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER
TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A
STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT
LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF
35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL
WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
711 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
707 AM UPDATE...HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE PUSHING OUT W/THE RIDGE MOVING E. REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS OK.
HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THE CWA WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL APCH THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND A CAP. 7 TO
8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AS
SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING FACTOR INITIALLY
WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER W/THE ONSHORE
WIND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER
TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A
STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT
LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF
35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL
WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
414 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY W/INCREASING HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THE CWA WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL APCH THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND A CAP. 7 TO
8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AS
SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING FACTOR INITIALLY
WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER W/THE ONSHORE
WIND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER
TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A
STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT
LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF
35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL
WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
AFTERNOON CU HAS POPPED IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SFC
HIGH WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE SW
FLOW CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 - 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WED...KEEPING THE SW
FLOW IN PLACE. THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT JUST SOME CU TO DEVELOP. SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z WED - SUN...THE FRONT APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON SO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS OF VIS AND CEILINGS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED DRYING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO NRN LOWER MI SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY FLOW
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH UPPER MI. THIS HAS BROUGHT COOL AIR INTO
THE AREA WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S. VIS LOOP SHOWED AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF BU MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILLL BRING VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. EXPECT TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WAS INCLUDED.
WED...SUNSHINE WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 800 MB WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE PRIMARILY
TEMPS THRU FRI AND THEN POPS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
RIDING OVER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS/ASSOCIATED WARM FNT IN THE
UPR MIDWEST. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THRU THE LONGER TERM AS
THE UPR RDG BLDS OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR W
THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS NEXT WEEK...COOLER WX MAY RETURN THEN.
WED NGT/THU...DISTURBANCE RIDING THRU THE FASTER NRN BRANCH FLOW
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRAG A WEAK LO PRES TROF/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH ACROSS THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF LINGERING SFC HI PRES
RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THE BULK
OF THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
NW ONTARIO AND THERE WL BE ONLY MARGINAL MSTR INFLOW INTO THE UPR
LKS AHEAD OF THE TROF...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA. A
BIT STRONGER WSW FLOW AND HIER PWAT APRCHG AN INCH WL MAKE FOR A
MUCH WARMER NGT ON WED NGT. WITH H85 TEMPS ON THU FCST IN THE 13-14C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS ON THU WL REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S AWAY FM LK
MODERATION.
THU NGT/FRI...UNDER REBOUNDING UPR HGTS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV
PASSING INTO QUEBEC AND N OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...SFC HI
PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LKS WL DOMINATE UPR MI WX AND BRING DRY
CONDITIONS. WSW FLOW ARND THE SFC HI TO THE S AND H85 TEMPS RISING
TO ABOUT 15-17C BY 00Z SAT SUPPORT A SLOW WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS
ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S AT SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FM MAINLY LK
MI COOLING...EVEN IF THERE IS AN INCRS IN HI CLD AS SOME MODELS HINT
TO THE N OF A WARM FNT DRIFTING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST.
WEEKEND...BLDG UPR RDG CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY W INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHRTWV RIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FNT SITUATED IN THE UPR MIDWEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV/LOCATION OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FNT AND AXIS OF PCPN. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z/12Z
ECMWF SHOWED A FARTHER S LOCATION OF THE FNT/PCPN WHILE THE 00Z
CNDN/12Z GFS MODELS FCST A FARTHER N POSITION AND RETURN OF
SHOWERS/TS AS EARLY AS LATE FRI NGT. THESE FARTHER N MODELS ALSO
INDICATE H85 TEMPS WL BE AT LEAST NEAR 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES ON LATE PERIOD/WARM SEASON FCST DETAILS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR RDG AXIS AMPLIFIES IN THE PLAINS...
TREND FOR THE UPR FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW MAY ALLOW CNDN HI
PRES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPR LKS AND PUSH COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR TO
THE S. BUT THERE ARE SGNFT DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THESE
EVENTS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY BRING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TS ON MON/TUE BEFORE THE STRONGER COLD FROPA...SO WL HOLD
ON TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTEROON AT SAW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTN AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AS HI PRES APPROACHES THE LAKE THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
UNDER 20 KTS. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER
STABILITY TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMER DOMINATING THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED DRYING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO NRN LOWER MI SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY FLOW
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH UPPER MI. THIS HAS BROUGHT COOL AIR INTO
THE AREA WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S. VIS LOOP SHOWED AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF BU MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILLL BRING VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. EXPECT TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WAS INCLUDED.
WED...SUNSHINE WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 800 MB WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
DURING THE LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA. TROF ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
CNTRL CANADA (FAIRLY NOTABLE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR JULY)
WILL EXTEND WEAKLY INTO THE NCNTRL CONUS/GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN...IT WILL WEAKEN/LIFT N DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED 500MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS
WHICH WILL THEN RETROGRADE QUICKLY AND EVOLVE INTO A RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NW TERRITORIES BY MON. THIS WILL FORCE
INCREASED TROFFING INTO SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR UPPER MI...THESE LARGE SCALE CHANGES WILL MEAN
BLO NORMAL TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TREND GRADUALLY UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COULD BE QUITE COOL (FOR JULY STANDARDS) FOR A TIME NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON LONGITUDE OF WRN RIDGE AXIS AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE
ACTUALLY BECOMES. AS FOR PCPN...THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY WITH
ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING BY TO THE N OF HERE. AS THE FLOW TURNS
WSW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE HIGH/RIDGE
RETROGRADING FROM THE SE CONUS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN LOOKS
UNLIKELY ATTM.
ON WED/THU...A FAIRLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW
AND ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AND NW MN WED. SCT CONVECTION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WITHIN NARROW BAND OF INSTABIILTY...BUT WITH FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF
HERE WED...PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT E WED NIGHT/THU...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN APPROACHING FRONT WASHING OUT WITH TIME.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PCPN WED NIGHT/THU. IF ANYTHING...ISLE ROYALE MIGHT GET CLIPPED
BY AN ISOLD SHRA.
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON FRI...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF DRY
WEATHER. THE GFS AND GEM DO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE
WEAKENING OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THRU THE BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS...NOT EXPECTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT TO
PROVIDE A RISK OF PCPN HERE ON FRI.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE HIGH/RIDGE
RETROGRADING FROM THE SE CONUS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND. PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TSTM CLUSTERS RUNNING ALONG THE EDGE OF MID LEVEL CAP AND
EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE
WAVES AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY INSTABILITY BUILDS TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES...FCST WILL SHOW MOSTLY LOWER RANGE CHC POPS. 00Z ECMWF
TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MORE
SUPPRESSED...RESULTING IN WHAT WOULD PROBABLY BE A DRY WEEKEND HERE.
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN THIS IDEA AND IF OTHER
MODELS TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BEFORE DOWNPLAYING WEEKEND PCPN
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTEROON AT SAW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTN AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
N-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTN EXCEPT WSW WINDS MAY KICK UP TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS. THE HIGH
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY BLO 15 KTS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF CROSSING NRN
ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
221 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.
FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
OTHER THAN LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME SMOKE WILL STILL BE ALOFT...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS AT THE SFC FOR VISIBILITY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1051 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...PW/S LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES IN THE 12Z JAN UA ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING WITH A CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 850 MB. SHOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH...IF ANY...CONVECTION WITH THIS SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT...BUT
HRRR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...
MAINLY BELOW 700 MB...WITH PW/S JUMPING TO AT LEAST 1.7 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CAP ERODING AWAY. HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS. HRRR IS
SHOWING THUNDERSTORM GUST POTENTIALS OF 40-45 KNOTS WITH THESE
STORMS AND WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST IS YIELDING A CHANCE CATEGORY.
WILL NOT UPDATE HWO AT PRESENT AS BELIEVE SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE
TOO SPARSE.
UPDATED GRIDS TO ADD SLIGHT POPS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP GRIDS APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK./26/7/
&&
.AVIATION...MAY ADD SOME VCTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
JAN...MEI AND HBG. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 9Z WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE MEI/HBG. /7/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE INCREASING PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING AFTERNOON HIGHS...MILD
NIGHTS...AND RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS
THAT INDEED DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY...AND RANGE IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 90S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S. ALSO OF NOTE...THESE ADVERTISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS HOVERING
AROUND 70F...COULD YIELD SOME AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND THE
100 DEGREE MARK. /19/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE THINKING IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM RECENT FORECASTS - TYPICAL
MID-JULY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE AS A STOUT MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS. RATHER HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AFTN/EVNG TSTMS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE. IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY MAY SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE GIVEN THAT HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (~1.9 IN) WILL
BEGIN TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE RIDGE CENTER AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS GREATER MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL TSTM
CHANCES AND HAVE INCREASED GUIDANCE POPS A BIT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LOOKING LESS REMARKABLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO WORK WITH AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS A
RESULT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HEAT STRESS TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH HEAT
INDICES LIKELY REACHING THE 100-105F RANGE EACH DAY...PERHAPS
PEAKING AT AROUND 105 OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST HEAT STRESS VALUES ARE NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. /EC/
AVIATION...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS
AS A RESULT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR PATCHY LOW STRATUS... PRIMARILY AT
KGTR...KMEI...AND KHBG...VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT ALL SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THESE VFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 7-12 KNOTS...AND WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS
TONIGHT. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 73 94 72 / 18 11 4 12
MERIDIAN 93 70 94 71 / 16 12 3 11
VICKSBURG 93 73 93 71 / 16 11 4 8
HATTIESBURG 93 73 94 72 / 18 3 5 8
NATCHEZ 92 74 91 73 / 18 4 8 8
GREENVILLE 91 74 92 72 / 12 14 10 9
GREENWOOD 91 73 92 72 / 16 14 6 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. THE LATEST RAP RUN HAS BACKED OFF THE INSTSABILITY,
BOTH IN NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH, AND IN
MAGNITUDE. REGARDLESS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE NOSES UP INTO OUR CWFA
FROM NEAR ELLINGTON UP TO SALEM. 200-300 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM HELICITY
AND AROUND 100 M2/S2 0-1KM HELICITY IS PLENTY OF SHEAR TO PROMOTE
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
ALONG WITH WANING DIURNAL HEATING. TRULY WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
GET A TORNADO WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER, BUT I WOULDN`T
THINK THE THREAT WILL LAST TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING.
OTHER CONCERN IS CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI FLASH FLOOD WATCH DROPS AT 00Z, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONTINUING UNTIL 06Z. WHILE I THINK THE
THREAT FOR TRULY HEAVY RAIN IS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, WE ARE SO
WET THAT I THINK THE WATCH IS STILL VALID UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH, POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAIN IS STILL A VERY REAL THREAT.
CARNEY
.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT DOESN`T GET VERY FAR
SOUTH BEFORE STALLING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
STALL OVER SOUTEHRN MISSOURI OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS
IT LOITERS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY INTO, THEN
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WHICH ENVIGORATES THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PUSHES THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY RESULTING
IN HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 5960M 500MB
RIDGE SPINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE SOME
REAL JULY HEAT THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEEKEND WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE OVER
THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
THE REST OF THE AREA.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS TIMING
THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA. AT 2300 UTC...SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
NEAR KJEF AND IS EXPECTED TO HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD METRO ST. LOUIS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. BELIEVE THREAT OF THUNDER WILL PREDOMINANTLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
REMAINS SOUTH OF METRO. IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND FOG IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS FOR RAIN...WILL BE BY AND LARGE DONE AT KCOU AND KUIN WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE METRO
STIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS TIMING
THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA. AT 2300 UTC...SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
NEAR KJEF AND IS EXPECTED TO HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD METRO ST. LOUIS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. BELIEVE THREAT OF THUNDER WILL PREDOMINANTLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND FOG IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT/SFC
LOW TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO
LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 0400 UTC. BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
GOSSELIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 63 79 69 89 / 100 10 60 30
QUINCY 57 75 63 85 / 70 10 60 50
COLUMBIA 59 77 66 88 / 40 20 60 30
JEFFERSON CITY 61 79 67 89 / 50 30 60 30
SALEM 67 77 66 87 / 90 20 40 30
FARMINGTON 67 80 67 90 / 70 40 40 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-IRON
MO-JEFFERSON MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-
PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-
ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-KNOX
MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-SHELBY MO-
WARREN MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
Main near term concern is the chances for renewed convective
development over the eastern cwfa.
A pocket of somewhat higher instability has developed over south
central MO where sfc temperatures have risen into the low-mid
80s. Progged RUC instability of 500-1000 j/kg is expected in this
area this afternoon. High resolution models are tending to
intensify convection along/ahead of the ongoing showers, at least
on a scattered basis. A continued strong low level inflow/jet will
enhance low level helicity with the potential of stronger
storms/low topped supercells. Already seeing weak rotation with
convection in the northeast cwfa. Helicity may be enhanced by west-
east warm front over central/east central MO. HRRR develops
somewhat stronger updrafts toward 21z-22z and then on into the
early evening. Some sw-ne training of convection may occur over our
eastern counties as well early this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
Another shortwave is progged to move into eastern KS late in the
day with further chances for renewed precip into Thu night. In
general, better precip chances will then shift north of the area
for a bit as an upper level ridge works it`s way over the region
Fri-Sat-Sun. Very warm/hot/steamy weather is then expected Fri
into early next week. First look at general guidance has low 90s
for highs for this time frame (Fri-Mon).
Active weather then may occur again by Tue-Wed as the upper
pattern amplifies as a ridge builds over Rockies and we are under
upper level nw flow. Hard to get too detailed yet out that far.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The back edge of an area of showers
will move through the KSGF and KBBG areas over the next 2-3 hours.
Abundant low level moisture and light winds will allow ifr cat stratus
to develop and build down fairly quickly and remain in place
before finally lifting during the 15z-18z time frame. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase again late in the taf
period with the approach of an upper level disturbance.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ082-083-096>098-
104>106.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>081-088>095-101>103.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
921 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A COUPLE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. SATELLITE SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF SMOKE BEING PUSHED
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. NOT SEEING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
SO CHANCES WERE REMOVED FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR A STRONGER STORM WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS SET UP AND WHERE THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THERE WAS NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY OUTSIDE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS S INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALSO SETS
UP OVER SE MT. THE SREF SHOWED SURFACE CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER SE MT INTO BIG HORN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LESSER PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE ELSEWHERE. THERE WAS ALSO
A CHANCE OF 40 KT OF SHEAR OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 1 INCH
OVER THE SE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RAP LINED UP WELL WITH THE
SREF WITH IT/S INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. NOTED THE WRF SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY HAD HIGHER CAPES THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WITH KBHK
PEAKING OUT AT 1600 J/KG BY 00Z WED. SO...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER SOME MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGHER POPS
IN SE MT...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NNE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
UPSLOPE.
MIXING TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE SMOKE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
A COOLER PUSH OF AIR WILL DRIVE S THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF SMOKE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKED EVEN WEAKER OVER THE AREA ON WED IN A WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...THEN
RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. MIXING TO 700 MB WILL
MAKE FOR A MARGINALLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. KEPT SOME POPS OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING...THEN WENT MAINLY DRY AFTER 06Z DUE TO WANING
INSTABILITY. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WIDESPREAD 90+ F HIGHS ARE FORECAST. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE LAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES HAVE OFFERED UP SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
THAT WAVE...BUT IN GENERAL THERE/S AGREEMENT THAT DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AND THUS THE SEVERE STORM RISK
WILL BE LIMITED...ALBEIT NON-ZERO. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE GREATER
STORM HAZARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO INTENSIFY AND BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOTTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOO.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THIS PATTERN IF THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES LIKE THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST. HOWEVER...BY NEXT TUESDAY THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
COULD YIELD SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE DID INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE TAFS
TO COVER THAT POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY
ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. FINALLY...SMOKE MAY RETURN AT THE SURFACE BY
EVENING THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 056/080 058/086 061/090 062/087 062/092 063/092
2/T 22/T 11/B 23/T 32/T 21/B 11/U
LVM 081 049/077 051/084 054/085 055/083 055/089 055/090
3/T 33/T 23/T 24/T 33/T 21/B 12/T
HDN 085 055/082 057/089 060/094 060/090 060/095 060/095
2/T 22/T 11/B 23/T 42/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 084 056/082 058/089 063/094 064/092 063/094 064/093
2/T 22/T 11/B 13/T 33/T 21/B 11/U
4BQ 083 055/080 057/087 061/093 062/091 062/093 062/091
3/T 22/T 12/T 13/T 32/T 11/B 11/U
BHK 079 053/079 055/085 060/090 062/090 061/090 061/089
3/T 22/T 11/U 12/T 33/T 22/T 11/B
SHR 079 052/074 053/083 056/087 056/086 056/089 056/089
2/T 33/T 33/T 23/T 32/T 11/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
254 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THERE WAS NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY OUTSIDE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS S INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALSO SETS
UP OVER SE MT. THE SREF SHOWED SURFACE CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER SE MT INTO BIG HORN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LESSER PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE ELSEWHERE. THERE WAS ALSO
A CHANCE OF 40 KT OF SHEAR OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 1 INCH
OVER THE SE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RAP LINED UP WELL WITH THE
SREF WITH IT/S INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. NOTED THE WRF SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY HAD HIGHER CAPES THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WITH KBHK
PEAKING OUT AT 1600 J/KG BY 00Z WED. SO...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER SOME MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGHER POPS
IN SE MT...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NNE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
UPSLOPE.
MIXING TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE SMOKE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
A COOLER PUSH OF AIR WILL DRIVE S THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF SMOKE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKED EVEN WEAKER OVER THE AREA ON WED IN A WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...THEN
RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. MIXING TO 700 MB WILL
MAKE FOR A MARGINALLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. KEPT SOME POPS OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING...THEN WENT MAINLY DRY AFTER 06Z DUE TO WANING
INSTABILITY. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WIDESPREAD 90+ F HIGHS ARE FORECAST. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE LAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES HAVE OFFERED UP SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
THAT WAVE...BUT IN GENERAL THERE/S AGREEMENT THAT DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AND THUS THE SEVERE STORM RISK
WILL BE LIMITED...ALBEIT NON-ZERO. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE GREATER
STORM HAZARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO INTENSIFY AND BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOTTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOO.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THIS PATTERN IF THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES LIKE THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST. HOWEVER...BY NEXT TUESDAY THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
COULD YIELD SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE DID INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE TAFS
TO COVER THAT POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY
ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. FINALLY...SMOKE MAY RETURN AT THE SURFACE BY
EVENING THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 056/080 058/086 061/090 062/087 062/092 063/092
2/T 22/T 11/B 23/T 32/T 21/B 11/U
LVM 081 049/077 051/084 054/085 055/083 055/089 055/090
3/T 33/T 23/T 24/T 33/T 21/B 12/T
HDN 085 055/082 057/089 060/094 060/090 060/095 060/095
2/T 22/T 11/B 23/T 42/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 084 056/082 058/089 063/094 064/092 063/094 064/093
2/T 22/T 11/B 13/T 33/T 21/B 11/U
4BQ 083 055/080 057/087 061/093 062/091 062/093 062/091
4/T 22/T 12/T 13/T 32/T 11/B 11/U
BHK 079 053/079 055/085 060/090 062/090 061/090 061/089
2/T 22/T 11/U 12/T 33/T 22/T 11/B
SHR 079 052/074 053/083 056/087 056/086 056/089 056/089
2/T 33/T 33/T 23/T 32/T 11/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SH/TS. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
AT MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT GUP/FMN. LOW CLOUDS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE COMMONPLACE AT LVS/TCC/ROW AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ABQ/AEG/SAF DUE TO A NEARLY SATURATED LOWER LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MVFR CIGS COULD PLAGUE THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. SH/TS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. NEAR AWW WIND SPEEDS AT ABQ THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1010 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. ABUNDANT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND WESTERN AREAS NEVER GOT GOING
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS SOUTHEAST AREAS IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. DO NOT EXPECT
STORM INTENSITY TO REACH THAT OF EARLIER CONVECTION NOW THAT WE
HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO PERCOLATE OUT THERE AS WELL. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL AIRMASS FOR EARLY JULY WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY AREAS NOT RISING OUT OF
THE 70S ON TUESDAY. THIS COOL AIR WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY HOWEVER SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE STORMS ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EAST WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.2
AND 1.4 ARE INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING ALOFT FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HAMMERING THE EAST
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FFA
LOOKS VERY GOOD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...HOWEVER
FARTHER WEST CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
ACTIVITY NOTED ON LATEST 18Z NAM/HRRR PRODUCTS. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW SINCE STORMS MAY STILL FIRE UP LATER AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RIPE ALONG THE DIVIDE.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND
VERY COOL AIR FOR EARLY JULY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL ATTEMPT THE RECYCLE PROCESS
AGAIN WITH A THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM. A BIG
UPTICK IS SHOWN THURSDAY WITH A MONSOON BURST PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS. A HUGE SLUG OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT ELEVATED THREAT WINDOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NOTED FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT TREND WESTWARD TOWARD THE AZ STATE LINE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD EASTERN NM.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM MOST ANY
STORM DUE TO THE EXCEEDINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT. A GUSTY EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TRACKS WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FEATURED TUESDAY CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE
THE EAST SHOULD BE QUIETER. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE CONSIDERABLE DEW POINT DECREASE FORECASTED BY THE NAM. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY THURSDAY GFS INDICATES AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL THETA E VALUES AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND KEEPS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY DRYING ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TEMPORARY GLITCH.
THE PLUME...AND UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR EAST...GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T CHANGE LOCATIONS SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT DOWN THE FLOW
OF MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THE EAST MIGHT BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE WETTING
RAIN NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROJECTED STEERING FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE...WITH THE OVERALL WARMEST AND CLOSEST TO AVERAGE DAYS NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE THE BEST OVERALL. AREA OF POOR
VENT RATES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AS
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NM.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1010 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. ABUNDANT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND WESTERN AREAS NEVER GOT GOING
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS SOUTHEAST AREAS IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. DO NOT EXPECT
STORM INTENSITY TO REACH THAT OF EARLIER CONVECTION NOW THAT WE
HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO PERCOLATE OUT THERE AS WELL. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...550 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INSTIGATE NUMEROUS
SH/TS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. EVENTUALLY
THE TS WILL DWINDLE BUT GIVE WAY TO LONG DURATION RAINFALL. LOW
CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE A CERTAINTY AT MANY OF THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE EASTERN LOCATIONS
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. A STRONG EAST CANYON
WIND WILL ALSO PLAGUE ABQ BUT DUE TO CONVECTION ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE MTNS IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER AWW SPEEDS WILL BE MET FOR A
LONG DURATION LATER TONIGHT. SUSPECT THEY COULD BASE ON A STRONG
COLD POOL TO THE EAST SO AN AWW COULD BE FORTHCOMING THIS EVE.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL AIRMASS FOR EARLY JULY WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY AREAS NOT RISING OUT OF
THE 70S ON TUESDAY. THIS COOL AIR WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY HOWEVER SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE STORMS ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EAST WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.2
AND 1.4 ARE INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING ALOFT FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HAMMERING THE EAST
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FFA
LOOKS VERY GOOD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...HOWEVER
FARTHER WEST CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
ACTIVITY NOTED ON LATEST 18Z NAM/HRRR PRODUCTS. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW SINCE STORMS MAY STILL FIRE UP LATER AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RIPE ALONG THE DIVIDE.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND
VERY COOL AIR FOR EARLY JULY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL ATTEMPT THE RECYCLE PROCESS
AGAIN WITH A THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM. A BIG
UPTICK IS SHOWN THURSDAY WITH A MONSOON BURST PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS. A HUGE SLUG OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT ELEVATED THREAT WINDOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NOTED FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT TREND WESTWARD TOWARD THE AZ STATE LINE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD EASTERN NM.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM MOST ANY
STORM DUE TO THE EXCEEDINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT. A GUSTY EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TRACKS WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FEATURED TUESDAY CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE
THE EAST SHOULD BE QUIETER. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE CONSIDERABLE DEW POINT DECREASE FORECASTED BY THE NAM. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY THURSDAY GFS INDICATES AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL THETA E VALUES AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND KEEPS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY DRYING ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TEMPORARY GLITCH.
THE PLUME...AND UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR EAST...GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T CHANGE LOCATIONS SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT DOWN THE FLOW
OF MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THE EAST MIGHT BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE WETTING
RAIN NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROJECTED STEERING FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE...WITH THE OVERALL WARMEST AND CLOSEST TO AVERAGE DAYS NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE THE BEST OVERALL. AREA OF POOR
VENT RATES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AS
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NM.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
855 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT WILL BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY...DISSIPATING SUNDAY. A BETTER FLOW OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIFTED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE BERMUDA HIGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM...SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST. THE ATM AHEAD OF THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...WITH
LATEST SBCAPE IN THE 3K TO 4K RANGE AND LIS -6 AND LOWER. WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME INSOLATION...WOULD EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN-SOME AS WE FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING. HAVE RE-
STRUCTURED POPS ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. WILL RIDE THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ILM CWA THIS
EVENING...AND EXITING THE PENDER COUNTY AREA BY 2 AM WED. VERY
LITTLE TWEAKING DONE TO MIN TEMPS. DID ADJUST THE SFC DEWPOINTS
AS A RESULT OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHED
THESE HIER DEWPOINTS INLAND.
PREVIOUS.........................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WE JUST DON`T SEEM TO HAVE ADEQUATE LIFT
FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGELY PINNED SEABREEZE APPEARS
TO HAVE A DEPTH OF ABOUT 3700FT ACCORDING TO THE FINE LINE ON
KLTX WHEREAS THE RUC ANALYSIS ON THE SPC PAGE SHOWS LFC`S CLOSER
TO 4500KT. IT IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN RECENT AFTERNOONS DESPITE THE
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS CLOUD COVER, WHICH IS NOT OVERLY OPAQUE BUT
CERTAINTY MADE SKY COVER FORECAST INTERESTING. HAVE MAINTAINED
VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN FARTHER
WEST COMPLIMENTS OF PIEDMONT TROUGH. INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HIGHEST POPS THEN COME OVER EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE WRF IN PARTICULAR SHOWS LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP ON
FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AFFECTING NE NC. LOCALLY RUN HRRR HAS
STORMS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND BRUSHING NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG
31-32 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STEERING ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS.
WARM DESCENDING AIR WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO MINIMIZE THE
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON`S SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN A REGIME OF
850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY >70 PERCENT. WE`RE LESS THAN 50
PERCENT THROUGH THAT LAYER TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND SHOULDN`T
RECOVER MUCH MOISTURE HERE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
HEAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY: WITH 850 MB TEMPS EDGING TOWARD +20C I
ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. FORECAST HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
100-105 BOTH DAYS. THE AMOUNT OF WESTERLY WIND DELAYING THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING WHICH DAY IS
WARMEST AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS
SHOULD BE FRIDAY. STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE WINDS
THURSDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. MY
FORECAST LOWS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE: 75-80...
WARMEST NEAR THE COAST.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OH-PA THURSDAY
AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE NOW UNIVERSALLY INDICATING THIS
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES AS
THE RIDGE TRANSLATES WESTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
MORNING TO TX/NM DURING SUNDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DIRECT HARD TO PINPOINT/TIME IMPULSES TOWARD THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWN TO INCREASE...THUS THE
TREND IS FOR A BUMP IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. STAYED WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO EXCEPT FOR
SUNDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THE CONVECTION IN
RALEIGH`S AREA...HOWEVER A STRAY STORM COULD MAKE INTO OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 01-04Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT...WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
FOG...BUT THERE COULD BE ISOLATED 5SM POCKETS AROUND SUNRISE. THE
TROUGH STAYS IN THE VICINITY ON THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...ATTM...WINDS ARE RUNNING SW 10-15 KT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND SSW-SW 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS. THE HIER WINDS NEAR SHORE ARE DUE TO THE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THE LOW LEVEL JET LESS THAN 1K FT OFF THE OCEAN SFC
IS PROGGED NOT TO BE AS STRONG LIKE PAST NIGHTS...RUNNING 15 TO 25
KT. ENOUGH MIXING OVERNIGHT AND A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG TO
YIELD WINDS BECOMING SW AROUND 15 KT THRUOUT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO
20 KT IF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A BIT STRONGER. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS...AND 3 TO 4
FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. A SOLID 1.5 TO 2.0 FOOT ESE-SE GROUND
SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. THIS
SWELL WILL HAVE A GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY WHEN COMPARED TO THE
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES.
PREVIOUS.......................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS FINALLY COMING UP OVER THE WATERS
ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO
DEVELOP NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL COASTAL JETLETS AND THIS ONE MAY
POISED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT. FRYING PAN HAS PICKED UP TO 13G15KT
AND 4 FT WHILE OLDER SWAN RUNS WANTED 4 FT ALREADY. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF OLDER FORECAST AND WNA WAVE GUIDANCE. IT
MAY BE A BIT OF A NOWCASTING TYPE SCENARIO TO SEE IF GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25KT DEVELOP...IT SEEMS A BIT UNLIKELY. EVEN IF THEY DO THEY
SHOULD BE SO LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE THAT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY NO BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 30
DEGREES LATITUDE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE TYPICAL SOUTHWEST WIND
WE EXPERIENCE WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BY ANOTHER 5-10 KT...AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE WINDS EXCEED 20 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RECENT COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
SHOULD SHIFT OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT IN THE
WEAKER OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A COMBINATION
OF 10-SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND LOCAL WIND CHOP.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE ONSET
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BACK TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..THEN 3 FT BY
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. COUPLE OF AREAS OF CONGESTED CU DEVELOPING...ONE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND ANOTHER IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HAVE AGAIN
BACKED OFF ON THE IGNITION TIME A LITTLE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS
TONIGHT AND LIMITED THE THUNDER POTENTIAL AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID KEEP SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
CENTRAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
06 UTC NAM AND LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AND MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SHOWS 600-800 J/KG
OF CAPE AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS. FOR NOW
TRIMMED BACK ON THE EASTERN EXTEND OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. SMOKE HAD ABATED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINED OVER THE WEST. A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE SMOKE OVER THE
WEST...BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SMOKE IS FROM THE
CANADIAN FIRES...IN ADDITION TO FIRES OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
ADJUSTED SMOKE DENSITY A BIT UP TO PATCHY SMOKE FROM AREAS OF
SMOKE AS OTHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST VISIBILITIES WERE GENERALLY 6
MILES OR BETTER. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOE 1500 OR BETTER CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY NOON TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE STATE.
VISIBILITIES WERE REDUCED TO AROUND 4 MILES DUE TO SMOKE AT
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ALSO AT
SIDNEY MONTANA. WILL STILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER MAINLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE THE MENTION OF SMOKE OUT
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE TAIL END OF A
JET STREAK ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.
TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. ANOTHER
JET STREAK MOVING OUT OF WYOMING MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. BEST CAPE
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH. BEST SHEAR IS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHEN BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST AT AROUND 40-45 KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE PROMINENT UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND MIGRATE
NORTH AS A PACIFIC FLOW BEGINS TO EMERGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RETROGRADING H500 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING IN A
MORE TYPICAL JULY WARMTH. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
70S...GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY 90 BY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC/TROPICAL FLOW REACHES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
IT APPEARS THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN AND NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES IN
MORE ALOFT TODAY THAN THE PAST FEW...THUS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER SMOKE REMAINS AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO KISN AND KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND TAF
SITES THE THREAT OF THUNDER DIMINISHES. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION 06-12Z BEFORE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
06 UTC NAM AND LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AND MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SHOWS 600-800 J/KG
OF CAPE AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS. FOR NOW
TRIMMED BACK ON THE EASTERN EXTEND OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. SMOKE HAD ABATED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINED OVER THE WEST. A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE SMOKE OVER THE
WEST...BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SMOKE IS FROM THE
CANADIAN FIRES...IN ADDITION TO FIRES OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
ADJUSTED SMOKE DENSITY A BIT UP TO PATCHY SMOKE FROM AREAS OF
SMOKE AS OTHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST VISIBILITIES WERE GENERALLY 6
MILES OR BETTER. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOE 1500 OR BETTER CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY NOON TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE STATE.
VISIBILITIES WERE REDUCED TO AROUND 4 MILES DUE TO SMOKE AT
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ALSO AT
SIDNEY MONTANA. WILL STILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER MAINLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE THE MENTION OF SMOKE OUT
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE TAIL END OF A
JET STREAK ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.
TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. ANOTHER
JET STREAK MOVING OUT OF WYOMING MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. BEST CAPE
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH. BEST SHEAR IS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHEN BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST AT AROUND 40-45 KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE PROMINENT UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND MIGRATE
NORTH AS A PACIFIC FLOW BEGINS TO EMERGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RETROGRADING H500 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING IN A
MORE TYPICAL JULY WARMTH. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
70S...GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY 90 BY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC/TROPICAL FLOW REACHES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS TAF SITES. KDIK AND KHEI WERE REPORTING 3-5SM IN SMOKE THE
PAST FEW HOURS. PUT IN SCATTERED DECK AS WHEN SMOKE BECOMES THICKER
THE ASOS REPORTS THE SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR VSBYS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MENTIONED VCTS AT TAF SITES. LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY ADD TEMPO GROUP
WITH -TSRA AS TIME OF OCCURRENCE APPROACHES. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.
BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.
WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.
BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.
HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
738 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG IT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED DUE TO THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD SLIGHTLY
CLEAR BUT REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES AIM ON OUR LOCAL
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIDE INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY HOWEVER AS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IT SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY MORNING-THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE SOLIDLY LINKED TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70 KT 300 HPA JET. WE/LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TSRA AS 0-1KM STORM REL HELICITY RAMPS UP TO SOME
LOFTY LEVELS OF 2-3.5 M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THIS
PERIOD. A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PA. THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC WAS INCREASED TO
SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF
MULTI- CELL SEVERE AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS SHOULD NEGATE ANYTHING FOR THAN A FEW ELEVATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
PWAT OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL QUICKLY ADVECT BACK INTO THE STATE
AND HELP TO JUICE UP THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE
A FEW...TRAINING TSRA COULD EASILY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF
JUST 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IN A 48 HOUR/2-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY
DRY/LOW PW AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA COAST WHICH
IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL DURING
THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER
MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH THIS
ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES DIMINISHED THE
ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM.
AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING FROM NEAR KUNV SE TOWARD KTHV AT
00Z...WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH MID EVENING. EASTERN AREAS
MOSTLY VFR WHILE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN EXPERIENCING
MVFR CIGS.
WITH MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING W-E ACROSS
NY STATE...CIG REDUCTIONS WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
MTNS OVERNIGHT. KJST-KBFD WILL DIP EVEN FURTHER TO IFR WHILE
CENTRAL TERMINALS FALL TO MVFR. SE SHOULD REMAIN VFR...THOUGH A
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT OF MIDWEST WILL DRAG FRONT BACK
NORTHWARD ON THU...AND WILL BRING LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND
REDUCTIONS TO CENTRAL PA. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN LATE MORNING IN THE NW
AND MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SE. CAPES HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAT SCT TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSS...ESP FROM KJST-KLNS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. SHOWERS/TSTMS SRN 1/2. MVFR CIGS WITH
LCL IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. GENERALLY VFR IN SE.
FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...THEN STALL
OUT ALONG...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST VESTIGES OF THE GREATLY WEAKENED UPPER TROUGH ARE SEEN AS
JUST A FEW HIGHLY ISOLATED /BUT BRIEFLY HVY/ RAIN SHOWERS
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
STRATUS OR STRATO CU CLOUDS /AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/ WILL BE AROUND
EARLY TODAY AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP SWRLY
FLOW...SLIGHTLY DECREASING SFC DEWPOINTS/PWAT...AND A DEG C OR
TWO OF MID-LEVEL WARMING /LATE/ WILL COMBINE TO BRING US A VERY
WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW- SVRL DEG F ABOVE NORMAL...AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN MOST PLACES.
SOME CONCERN THAT A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER...AND TO THE EAST OF THE
SUSQ VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL CAP /NOTED BY
A RIBBON OF 700 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 6C/ COUPLED WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET COULD SPARK
ISOLATED-SCT COVERAGE OF PULSE SHRA/TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE LOWER GLAKES AND
BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER MULTI-CELL TSRA
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL. 8H TEMPS TEMPS NR 17C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OUT
NEAR...OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
MAIN FCST PROBLEM/CHALLENGE FOR THE UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL BE TO
TRY TO PIN DOWN /VIA SOME SEMBLANCE OF MODEL CONSENSUS/ THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE FEATURES/AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL FORM AND RIDE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...A GEFS/NAM/SREF BLEND POINT TWD THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF
PENN WEDNESDAY...WHERE PWAT WILL STAY AOA 2.0 INCHES. THE SHARP
GRADIENT TO MUCH LOWER PWAT /AOB 0.75 OF AN INCH/ WILL STAY NEAR
OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE PENN/NEW YORK BORDER WHERE CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOW WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF WED NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY TURN OUT TO BE SEVERAL DEG F OR
MORE BELOW CURRENT FCST VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. CURRENT TEMP FCST
BUSTING ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY`S HIGH IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. WILL BE ADJUSTING THESE TEMPS WITH 03Z SREF AND 06Z
OP GUIDANCE WHERE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A FOCUS FOR PCPN ON DAY 3/THURS. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PERTURBATION/SFC WAVE
EMERGING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND PROGRESSING EWD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A NORTHERN BIAS WITH QPF AXES ASSOCD
WITH THESE MESO FEATURES...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED WPC LEAD WITH
CLUE FROM THE HI-RES MODELS IN SHIFTING MAX POPS SWD OF CONSENSUS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES CENTRAL PA THURSDAY AFTERNOON..IN WHICH
CASE IT WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WX AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RISK. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE GREATER VISIBILITY
AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN ITS PROJECTION THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STEADILY EVOLVE TOWARD
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER 48. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY WAY OF NRN PAC ENERGY FEEDING
INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
THAT RETROGRADES WWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING NWD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WRN CANADA...AND DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EAST EXTENDING SWD FROM
HUDSON BY VORTEX.
A 24-48HR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE AS
OF LATE...COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE D3 CONVECTIVE LOW. THE
PLACEMENT OF PIVOTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MSTR/PW AXIS
WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PCPN RISK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE NW
OR SW OF CENTRAL PA. THE OTHER FACTOR WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO
ENERGY EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE CA IN THE SHORT
RANGE. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE THAT THIS
ENERGY SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AND
THEN HELP TO CARVE OUT THE DEVELOPING ERN TROUGH DOWNSTREAM.
HOWEVER SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT LOCKED ONTO HOW SHEARED THE ENERGY WILL
BECOME...WHICH ALONG WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL FACTORS LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING OF NEXT PCPN
OPPORTUNITY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND MARGINAL VISBYS WILL IMPROVE THRU 15Z WITH VFR
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE INTO THE EVENING. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR TSTM THRU THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NW PA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MODIFIED SHRA/TSRA TIMING AT BFD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT WEST-TO-EAST ALONG
THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SW 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS WERE REDUCED AGAIN EARLY IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
NAM AND ADJMAV.
AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD. ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES. THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO. POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN AREAS
TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. PREFERRED
GUIDANCE DOE NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT...BUT DOE AT
NEIGHBORING SITES TO THE S AND N. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS FAVOR A LOW VFR CLOUD
DECK.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT AT KAVL
GUIDANCE VEERS WINDS NW TONIGHT AND LEAVES THEM THERE. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT IS VFR AT
FOOTHILLS SITES...THROUGH SOME SITES NEAR KHKY ARE MVFR. LOW VFR
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG...THROUGH
IF KAVL CAN GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A CIG RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAWN.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
955 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EDT UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE REDUCED EARLY ON BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS
WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.
AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD. ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES. THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO. POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MRNG FOG WILL DISSOLVE QUICKLY AFTER
12Z AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAND...WHERE THE LAYER IS
THICK ENOUGH THAT A LIFR CIG IS REPORTED. OTHERWISE SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING VSBYS. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS...BUT KAVL
WILL START OFF NLY AND FLIP AT MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. KAVL HAS A VCSH MENTION BUT OTHER SITES ARE DRY.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
COVERAGE...THOUGH MTN VALLEYS AND SITES IN THE NRN CATAWBA VALLEY
STILL LOOK TO SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD. ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES. THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO. POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MRNG FOG WILL DISSOLVE QUICKLY AFTER
12Z AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAND...WHERE THE LAYER IS
THICK ENOUGH THAT A LIFR CIG IS REPORTED. OTHERWISE SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING VSBYS. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS...BUT KAVL
WILL START OFF NLY AND FLIP AT MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. KAVL HAS A VCSH MENTION BUT OTHER SITES ARE DRY.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
COVERAGE...THOUGH MTN VALLEYS AND SITES IN THE NRN CATAWBA VALLEY
STILL LOOK TO SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD. ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES. THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO. POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 96% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
STRATOCU IS PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY THIN
OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPTS STILL APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. INTERESTINGLY THERE
IS A SMALL POCKET OF LIKELY STRATUS OR FOG OVER ABBEVILLE CO THAT
MATCHES WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS. THE HRRR SPREADS THESE CLOUDS NEWD
THRU DAWN...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME VERY LOW VSBYS IN THE SAME AREA.
I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND OBS...THOUGH THE LOW VSBYS DO
NOT SEEM AS LIKELY AS THE STRATUS.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.
MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.
ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 91% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
906 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAS REASSERTED
ITSELF TODAY, PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST A
BIT FARTHER AWAY, ENABLING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND KEEPING THE RAIN AWAY. EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX
DOES SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS EVENING, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.37 INCHES, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, A 1011 MB LOW IS SITUATED
NEAR ST. LOUIS, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT RUNNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THERE IS PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
SLIPPING INTO WESTERN KY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WE ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED POP`S IN OUR FAR NW FOR TONIGHT. AM NOT INCLINED TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HOURLY GRIDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MVFR FOG AT CKV BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PROLONGED ISSUES.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS
OUT OF THE WEST.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. TOMORROW THE BOUNDARY
WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST. MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF I40 GIVEN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE BOUNDARY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
AND MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK MOSTLY
DRY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH. LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY MIDDLE TN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE STARTING ON TUESDAY AS GFS CUTS OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
OPEN... MOVES IT THROUGH THE AREA... AND BEGINS TO BRING BACK SOME
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ THURSDAY MORNING. POPS MID
WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHICH SCENARIO OCCURS BUT FOR NOW WENT
WITH A BLEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND
SNEAK UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20 C. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT AS
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY. THE PROPOSED GFS CUT OFF
LOW WOULD GREATLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AGAIN...DID NOT BITE ON THIS SCENARIO YET.
REAGAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 91 70 93 / 10 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 88 69 93 / 20 20 20 10
CROSSVILLE 70 86 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 71 92 70 94 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 71 92 70 93 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 72 89 70 93 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO THE NORTH...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE NAM IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH SHOWING
INCREASING 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...LIMITING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST IS THE TRANSITION BACK TO
DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WAS
ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN WEST-CENTRAL MO WITH AN ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ORIENTED EAST/WEST SOUTH OF I-70.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN
STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BEST COLLOCATION OF
THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS IS LOCATED ACROSS E MO/SRN IL. SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...WIND FIELDS ALOFT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MID-SOUTH BEGINS A SLOW WARM
UP. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20 C
ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S ON THURSDAY INCREASING TO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL STILL BE OPPRESSIVE FOR THOSE
WORKING FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
IN THE LONG-TERM...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO
SMALLER-SCALE PATTERN DETAILS...BUT MOST LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A CUTOFF LOW/VORT MAX WILL BECOME
DISPLACED FROM THE LARGER HUDSON BAY CIRCULATION BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING OFF ENERGY...BUT
AGREES THAT A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
COOLER/WETTER PERIOD WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BUT DETAILS OF
SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION NUISANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SMALL
WINDOW NEAR SUNRISE WHEN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. BROKEN LINE OF
T-STORMS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
SKIRTING JBR...OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL BE DRY AND VFR.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
550 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
NAM EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES FURTHER
SOUTH AND ALSO WENT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SENT. IN THE PROCESS
OF UPDATING THE ZONE FORECASTS...GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP THROUGH THIS REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING WEST TO EAST WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO
INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BETWEEN 3 AND
5 INCHES...LOCALLY MORE.
ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH MS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...BUT THINK THESE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OVER MISSOURI. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE NEW FOCUS FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THESE AREAS ARE PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO EXCEED 2.25
INCHES. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE REFOCUSING FURTHER
NORTH ALONG A RETREATING SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH
HPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ALIGN WELL WITH THE HPC MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND MLCAPES EXCEED 1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
AREAWIDE AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
EAST BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERALL...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
OCCURS AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SPREAD BACK OVER THESE AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO CREEP
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 100-105 WHICH WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALONG
ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO
SET UP AGAIN WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ALSO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TODAY.
HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VCTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
JBR...MEM AND MKL. JBR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF LONGER DURATION
TSRA PERHAPS ALSO REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 4SM. WINDS HAVE
ALSO INCREASED ABOVE 10 KTS AREA-WIDE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO SIMILAR
VALUES.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
532 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
NAM EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES FURTHER
SOUTH AND ALSO WENT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SENT. IN THE PROCESS
OF UPDATING THE ZONE FORECASTS...GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP THROUGH THIS REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING WEST TO EAST WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OVER MISSOURI. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE NEW FOCUS FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THESE AREAS ARE PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO EXCEED 2.25
INCHES. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE REFOCUSING FURTHER
NORTH ALONG A RETREATING SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH
HPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ALIGN WELL WITH THE HPC MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND MLCAPES EXCEED 1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
AREAWIDE AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
EAST BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERALL...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
OCCURS AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SPREAD BACK OVER THESE AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO CREEP
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 100-105 WHICH WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALONG
ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO
SET UP AGAIN WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ALSO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TODAY.
HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VCTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
JBR...MEM AND MKL. JBR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF LONGER DURATION
TSRA PERHAPS ALSO REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 4SM. WINDS HAVE
ALSO INCREASED ABOVE 10 KTS AREA-WIDE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO SIMILAR
VALUES.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
119 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCT -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
THEN REACHING CKV THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
EASTWARD TOWARDS BNA/CSV THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR CONFIRMS WITH
ACTIVITY NOW FORMING IN WEST TN. PREVIOUS TAFS GENERALLY HAD THIS
REASONING/TIMING AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. VFR CIGS/VIS
GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA/-TSRA. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS...AND TWEAK HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. THIS RESULTED IN
KEEPING MAINLY ISO SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS MID STATE THRU
MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON HRS...EXPECT NW WHERE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS. AFT 00Z...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
CKV AND BNA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL
PROXIMITY. OTW...VCNTY SHOWERS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
OTW...LOOK FOR LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED UPSTREAM. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. HRRR TRANSLATES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD BEFORE
DYING OUT BY 12Z.
FOR TODAY...THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RAMPING UP A BIT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN PARTICULAR. WILL INCLUDE A 50 POP
ACROSS OUR NW...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU
GO.
TONIGHT...VORT CHANNEL WILL STILL LOOK BEST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR NW AND TAPER THAT DOWN TO 30 POPS
EAST AND SOUTH.
ON WED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE LOWER POPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THU AS WELL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE GREATEST DOMINANCE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY. THUS...THIS PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS RATHER
DRY AT THIS TIME. BUT...WILL STILL INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS AS WE MOVE
A BIT TOWARD CLIMO NUMBERS IN TERMS OF PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...HOT WEATHER TO RETURN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20-22C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 91 70 89 / 30 40 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 72 87 69 87 / 60 40 20 20
CROSSVILLE 69 85 66 85 / 30 40 20 20
COLUMBIA 73 92 70 91 / 30 30 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 73 91 71 91 / 20 30 20 20
WAVERLY 73 90 70 87 / 60 30 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS...AND TWEAK HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. THIS RESULTED IN
KEEPING MAINLY ISO SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS MID STATE THRU
MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON HRS...EXPECT NW WHERE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS. AFT 00Z...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
CKV AND BNA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL
PROXIMITY. OTW...VCNTY SHOWERS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
OTW...LOOK FOR LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED UPSTREAM. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. HRRR TRANSLATES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD BEFORE
DYING OUT BY 12Z.
FOR TODAY...THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RAMPING UP A BIT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN PARTICULAR. WILL INCLUDE A 50 POP
ACROSS OUR NW...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU
GO.
TONIGHT...VORT CHANNEL WILL STILL LOOK BEST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR NW AND TAPER THAT DOWN TO 30 POPS
EAST AND SOUTH.
ON WED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE LOWER POPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THU AS WELL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE GREATEST DOMINANCE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY. THUS...THIS PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS RATHER
DRY AT THIS TIME. BUT...WILL STILL INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS AS WE MOVE
A BIT TOWARD CLIMO NUMBERS IN TERMS OF PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...HOT WEATHER TO RETURN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20-22C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 89 73 91 70 / 20 30 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 72 87 69 / 60 60 40 20
CROSSVILLE 85 69 85 66 / 20 30 40 20
COLUMBIA 90 73 92 70 / 20 30 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 89 73 91 71 / 20 20 30 20
WAVERLY 88 73 90 70 / 60 60 30 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
610 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS. AFT 00Z...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
CKV AND BNA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL
PROXIMITY. OTW...VCNTY SHOWERS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
OTW...LOOK FOR LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED UPSTREAM. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. HRRR TRANSLATES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD BEFORE
DYING OUT BY 12Z.
FOR TODAY...THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RAMPING UP A BIT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN PARTICULAR. WILL INCLUDE A 50 POP
ACROSS OUR NW...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU
GO.
TONIGHT...VORT CHANNEL WILL STILL LOOK BEST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR NW AND TAPER THAT DOWN TO 30 POPS
EAST AND SOUTH.
ON WED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE LOWER POPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THU AS WELL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE GREATEST DOMINANCE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY. THUS...THIS PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS RATHER
DRY AT THIS TIME. BUT...WILL STILL INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS AS WE MOVE
A BIT TOWARD CLIMO NUMBERS IN TERMS OF PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...HOT WEATHER TO RETURN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20-22C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 89 73 91 70 / 40 30 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 72 87 69 / 40 60 40 20
CROSSVILLE 85 69 85 66 / 30 30 40 20
COLUMBIA 90 73 92 70 / 30 30 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 89 73 91 71 / 20 20 30 20
WAVERLY 88 73 90 70 / 40 60 30 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED UPSTREAM. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. HRRR TRANSLATES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD BEFORE
DYING OUT BY 12Z.
FOR TODAY...THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RAMPING UP A BIT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN PARTICULAR. WILL INCLUDE A 50 POP
ACROSS OUR NW...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU
GO.
TONIGHT...VORT CHANNEL WILL STILL LOOK BEST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR NW AND TAPER THAT DOWN TO 30 POPS
EAST AND SOUTH.
ON WED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE LOWER POPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THU AS WELL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE GREATEST DOMINANCE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY. THUS...THIS PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS RATHER
DRY AT THIS TIME. BUT...WILL STILL INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS AS WE MOVE
A BIT TOWARD CLIMO NUMBERS IN TERMS OF PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...HOT WEATHER TO RETURN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20-22C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 89 72 91 72 / 40 30 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 86 71 89 72 / 40 60 40 20
CROSSVILLE 82 70 86 69 / 30 30 40 20
COLUMBIA 90 71 92 71 / 30 30 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 88 71 91 71 / 20 20 30 20
WAVERLY 88 72 90 72 / 40 60 30 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
658 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.AVIATION...
GREATEST AVIATION THREAT WILL BE SCT-NUM TS TONIGHT MAINLY AT PVW
AND CDS AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING SE FROM THE WRN
TX PANHANDLE. INSERTED TEMPOS BY 06Z FOR THIS SCENARIO
HIGHLIGHTING GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER CIGS. LBB COULD CATCH THE
REMNANTS OF THESE TS BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
IS DRY. ALSO...EARLIER FORECAST FOR LOW CIGS BY SUNRISE IS NO
LONGER LOOKING AS CERTAIN...SO HAVE DOWNPLAYED THIS MENTION SOME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS TOOK A WHILE TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING ACROSS THE AREA
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS OF 3
PM. MODELS SHOW THAT WE STILL REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER THE EXIT REGION
OF THE JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT AS WELL AS KEEPING BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SLOWER
SPEEDS AROUND 700 HPA THAT MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH STORM
MORPHOLOGY. THE 12Z TTU WRF LOOKS TO HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THINGS ARE INITIATING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
DEVELOPS THIS INTO A FAIRLY DECENT MCS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN AFTER DARK AND THIS MAY HELP THE MCS TO
PROPAGATE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN DUE EAST WHICH RESULTED IN THE
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL WITH THE 18Z
NAM...12Z HIRES-ARW...AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS SOMEWHERE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IN SOME CASES
DUE SOUTH. INITIALLY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE A WET
MICROBURST/DOWNBURST THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THE ONLY WRENCH
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC MACHINERY IS THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DO
FEEL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PULL IN SOME LOW CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AS WELL AS ANY REMNANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF AND
PRECIPITATION MAY COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. THERE IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION A BIT THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MAY HELP TO
PUSH CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. JORDAN
LONG TERM...
QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART IN THE LONG TERM. UPPER LOW
WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE WORKING NEWD INTO EASTERN
AZ AND ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING...MOISTURE
AND FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER GIVEN UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
FROM THE EAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE UNDERWAY. NAM IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS COMPARED TO GFS WHICH HAS AXIS
RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WARMING LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPS. WILL REACH THE 90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH 90+ TEMPS EMERGING ON THE CAPROCK BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN S
PLAINS/SW PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY WITH NO MENTION OF POPS BY
SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WITH WEAKNESS IN RIDGE POSSIBLE AND NW FLOW ON EASTERN
SIDE OF HIGH ALLOWING FOR A RE-EMERGENCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESP NORTH. TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MON-TUE BUT WITH ABDUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE AND STANDING
WATER...FEEL THAT MAY BE A LITTLE AGRESSIVE SO BACKED DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. JAMES
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
617 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH
BKN VFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL TEND TO THIN OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME MVFR CIGS SPREADING NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
HAVE A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS FROM 12-15Z
ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT. AT WACO...BETTER COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
SO WILL PREVAIL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS...NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
IN THE MID LEVELS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...THAT REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WHATS LEFT OF A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT A LINE FROM GRAYSON COUNTY...THROUGH DENTON COUNTY TO
PARKER AND EARTH COUNTIES...THEN DOWN INTO COMANCHE COUNTY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR THAT AREA. WHERE THIS FRONT MOVES WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. WHERE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT TRACKS WILL BE
THE MOST CONCERNING. THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...THEY BOTH HAVE IT TRACKING EAST AND THEN
LIFTING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO FALL APART AT THIS POINT IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS AND THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...WITH THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
REMOVED.
BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THEREFORE, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
MIGHT START TO SEE SOME OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THIS
YEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT SOME
CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE KEEP WEATHER OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
78.JG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 93 76 94 76 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 92 73 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 72 91 73 93 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 74 91 72 94 72 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 75 93 74 92 74 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 76 93 77 95 78 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 74 91 74 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 75 91 75 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 91 72 92 72 / 5 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 90 71 91 71 / 10 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
501 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.EVENING UPDATE...
WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS NORTH OF VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTY
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO WANT TO DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS
THE CWA BUT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT AGREE.
CONTINUE TO CLOUD TOPS BELOW -75 DEGREES AS OF THE 22Z AND PLENTY
OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE UPDRAFTS OF THESE CELLS TO ANTICIPATE
THEIR LONGEVITY ENOUGH TO ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES FOR
TONIGHT AND INCREASED POPS A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD. DO THINK THE
DOWNTREND WILL BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WE SHOULD LOSE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT. ALSO...700 MB
MOISTURE DECREASES FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SO ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS WELL.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TOO WARM OUT WEST AS
WELL SO REPOPULATED OBS AND BLENDED INTO RAP TRENDS AS THESE HAD
THE CLOSEST HANDLE ON WHATS GOING ON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO HAS
WEAKENED WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. LOOKING
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS...SOME CLEARING IS UNDERWAY. RADAR DATA IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO DESTABILIZE
THE LOWER LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77
CORRIDOR. THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT GIVEN A
MOIST AXIS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL NOT MENTION A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
BEYOND 7 PM. ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN VAL VERDE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES...WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE/LL ALSO
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP. THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RETURN FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
INTO OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
OUR REGION THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WE/LL CALL
FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 92 75 93 73 / 10 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 92 75 92 73 / 10 - - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 74 91 73 / 10 - - 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 91 71 / 20 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 94 76 94 75 / 30 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 75 91 72 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 73 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 75 91 72 / 10 - - 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 92 75 91 74 / 10 - 0 - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 75 92 73 / 10 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 75 91 74 / 10 - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS A
SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT HAS JUST
MADE ITS WAY INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NEAR WHATS LEFT OF A COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE MAIN THREAT THIS
CONVECTION POSES TO NORTH TEXAS IS HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE THAT BOUNDARY WILL END UP AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
IT. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TONIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL
HELP FIRE UP MORE CONVECTION. EXPANDED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST...AND KEPT POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM SHERMAN TO DENTON TO THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVERNIGHT IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD THE
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES. THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE AN AREA TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IF IT
MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A
FEW DEGREES DUE TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. THERE
IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIMING FOR THE
WATCH WILL REMAIN THE SAME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES...MOSTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20.
BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
78.JG
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
/18Z TAFS/
MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL CONCERN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONSET OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT NW OF THE AREA AND UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR
WICHITA FALLS WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE
WEST HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
WELL WEST OF THE AIRPORTS.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 HIGH RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THINGS THE BEST
SO FAR...BUT NOT PERFECTLY BY ANY MEANS. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALOFT ARE NOT GIVING A STRONG INDICATION
HOW...IF ANY COLD POOL INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND BE ABLE TO SHIFT
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HELD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
TAF TRENDS OUTSIDE OF DELAYING VCTS TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDING UP THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRYING TO PIN DOWN BEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION WAS DIFFICULT AND
WILL JUST HAVE TO PLAY THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 88 73 93 74 / 50 30 10 5 0
WACO, TX 74 92 73 93 74 / 10 5 0 5 0
PARIS, TX 73 88 71 91 70 / 40 20 10 5 0
DENTON, TX 72 84 72 92 71 / 70 50 10 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 75 87 72 92 71 / 50 30 10 5 0
DALLAS, TX 73 88 74 94 75 / 40 20 10 5 0
TERRELL, TX 76 89 73 91 73 / 30 10 5 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 76 91 75 92 73 / 10 5 0 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 73 91 73 92 71 / 10 5 0 5 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 85 71 91 69 / 80 50 10 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>093-
100>103-115>118-129-131.
&&
$$
/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
105 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL CONCERN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONSET OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT NW OF THE AREA AND UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR
WICHITA FALLS WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE
WEST HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
WELL WEST OF THE AIRPORTS.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 HIGH RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THINGS THE BEST
SO FAR...BUT NOT PERFECTLY BY ANY MEANS. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALOFT ARE NOT GIVING A STRONG INDICATION
HOW...IF ANY COLD POOL INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND BE ABLE TO SHIFT
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HELD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
TAF TRENDS OUTSIDE OF DELAYING VCTS TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDING UP THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRYING TO PIN DOWN BEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION WAS DIFFICULT AND
WILL JUST HAVE TO PLAY THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED...DUE TO ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE NORMAL SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
JG.78
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELDS THAT RESIDES ALONG A LINE FROM THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS...THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MID LEVEL WEAKNESS...AND AS OF NOW WAS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF
MIDLAND TO NEAR VERNON AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. THE FRONT
WAS EFFECTIVELY STATIONARY BUT IT DID MAKE SOME SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS LAST NIGHT AS A RESULT OF RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS FROM
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
ALSO OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS WAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AT 250MB THAT WAS SUPERIMPOSED ABOVE THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS
AND COLD FRONT. CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A HIGH ALTITUDE RIDGE
IS AN INTERESTING OCCURRENCE FOR OUR REGION...AS IT IS USUALLY
SOMETHING THAT OCCURS IN THE TROPICS. HAVING THIS UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA MEANS THAT THE TROPOPAUSE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH OVER THE
REGION...WHICH ALLOWS FOR VERY DEEP AND TALL CONVECTION. THE
CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAD CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -85C. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION
THAT IS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH MORE
VERTICAL SPACE FOR HYDROMETEORS TO DEVELOP IN A THUNDERSTORM
WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND LOWISH HUMIDITY SEEN ON THE REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS LAST NIGHT.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHERE THIS DEEP CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND QPF AXIS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED IN THE SHORT-TERM HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY...BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL BECOME
A FOCUS FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG. IN
ADDITION TO THE FRONT...A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST
WITH DYNAMIC LIFT INCREASING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF RAIN WHERE POPS OF 60-80 PERCENT ARE NOW FORECAST. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE FRONT...WE ARE ALSO HIGHLIGHTING A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS WEST TEXAS
SHOULD MAKE SLOW AND STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LIKELY IMPACTING THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER
MIDDAY...EXPECT THE COMPLEX TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AND
POSSIBLY DISSIPATE...BUT IT SHOULD SEND OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO HELP KICK OFF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. POPS ARE NEAR 20-30
PERCENT SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO DFW TO SHERMAN LINE...WITH
THE LIKELY POPS RESERVED FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST LOW TO MID 80S IN
THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOL...WITH
LOWER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
BELIEVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL COME
TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO COMANCHE LINE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES ITS MAXIMUM. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A TRAINING BAND OF SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH MULTI-INCH
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 80
PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST...RAPIDLY DECREASING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO RETREATS
NORTH DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS PRETTY SIMPLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST DURING THE MID-LATE
WEEK PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A SLOW CLIMB. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT IS LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST AND KEEPING THEM MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARD
OFF DFW AND WACO/S FIRST 100 DEGREE READING THROUGH THIS 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IT IS CERTAINLY GOING TO BE HOT AND
DRY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 74 90 75 93 / 30 50 30 5 5
WACO, TX 91 76 93 75 93 / 20 10 5 0 5
PARIS, TX 87 75 89 72 91 / 20 40 20 5 5
DENTON, TX 85 71 87 73 92 / 40 70 40 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 87 74 90 74 92 / 30 50 30 5 5
DALLAS, TX 90 76 91 75 93 / 30 40 20 5 5
TERRELL, TX 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 76 92 74 92 / 20 10 5 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 90 76 92 74 92 / 20 10 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 84 70 90 72 92 / 60 80 40 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115-116-129.
&&
$$
05/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...RE-EMERGENCE OF AN EARLY MORNING/DAWN
LLJ OUT WEST MAY (RE)INTRODUCE SHORT LIVED MVFR DECKS OVER MORE
WESTERN HUBS EARLY WED AM. TODAY...A THICKENED CUMULUS FIELD WITH
A SEA BREEZE LIFTING OFF THE COAST AS INLAND TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE
90F...OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS TOO RANDOM TO PLACE WITHIN 18Z
TAFS. A DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD AID IN
JUST KEEPING A FEW CU DECK AROUND TOMORROW...SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING WIND PARALLEL CLOUD STREETS OVER THE AREA...
WITH A STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES STREAMING
INTO JEFFERSON AND FAR EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES. STILL VERY HOT
AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MADE FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A
TAD FAR SE ZONES GIVEN CONVERGENCE BAND AND STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTING
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THINK 20 PERCENT AREAL COVERAGE AS PER GOING
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. 46
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEW POINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45
&&
MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT. 39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 94 75 93 74 / 0 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 94 76 92 76 / 0 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 90 81 90 81 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CONVECTION OVER MEXICO
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. CURRENTTHINKING
IS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KDRT WITH ONLY
RAIN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WILL INCLUDE VCSH TO COVER THE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF I-35. DO NOT THINK ANY TERMINALS WILL
BE IMPACTED AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL SEE S/SE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREAS OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 03Z- 06Z AT THE I-35 SITES. SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AGAIN BY 16Z-19Z WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS AFTER 16Z WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SPREAD THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MAVERICK COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS...DEW POINTS
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
POPS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY WERE RAISED A CATEGORY AS RADAR TRENDS
ARE HOLDING STEADY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXPAND POPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FOR
PWAT VALUES AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PROVE TO BE ACCURATE.
AVIATION... /12 TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BROUGHT TSRA CAPABLE CELLS NOT FAR FROM
DRT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE AS VCSH DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
AND ISOLATED NATURE. LATER TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A PROB30 GROUP
AS INCREASING PWAT TRENDS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT THAT BENEFITS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW
CLOUD...THANKS TO A SOLID SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SITS
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND...AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE MID LEVEL ASCENT TODAY AND INTERACTION WITH BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
(CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. ALSO...A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALONG WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO GONZALES LINE. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA INTO
TONIGHT. THEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRYING IS SHOWN BY
MOST MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS BOTH DAYS FOR THIS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 76 93 75 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 75 92 74 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 92 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 91 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 93 73 93 / - 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 20 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 - 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 75 93 75 92 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 74 92 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1052 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SPREAD THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MAVERICK COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS...DEW POINTS
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
POPS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY WERE RAISED A CATEGORY AS RADAR TRENDS
ARE HOLDING STEADY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXPAND POPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FOR
PWAT VALUES AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PROVE TO BE ACCURATE.
AVIATION... /12 TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BROUGHT TSRA CAPABLE CELLS NOT FAR FROM
DRT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE AS VCSH DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
AND ISOLATED NATURE. LATER TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A PROB30 GROUP
AS INCREASING PWAT TRENDS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT THAT BENEFITS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW
CLOUD...THANKS TO A SOLID SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SITS
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND...AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE MID LEVEL ASCENT TODAY AND INTERACTION WITH BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
(CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. ALSO...A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALONG WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO GONZALES LINE. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA INTO
TONIGHT. THEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRYING IS SHOWN BY
MOST MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS BOTH DAYS FOR THIS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 76 93 75 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 75 92 74 92 / 20 0 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 92 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 91 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 93 73 93 / - 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 20 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 - 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 75 93 75 92 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 74 92 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING WIND PARALLEL CLOUD STREETS OVER THE
AREA...WITH A STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STIKES STREAMING
INTO JEFFERSON AND FAR EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES. STILL VERY HOT
AND HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MADE FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A
TAD FAR SE ZONES GIVEN CONVERGENCE BAND AND STREAMER SHOWERS
IMPACTING THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THINK 20 PERCENT AREAL
COVERAGE AS PER GOING FORECAST IS ON TARGET. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW PASSING SHRA BUT NOTHING THAT IS
IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR KLBX/LGLS FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT COMES OFF THE GULF.
CIGS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOR
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. KCLL HAD SOME BREIF IFR CIGS BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE
LIFTING. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE DAY.
LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF CIGS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM S/SE AND MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5-10KTS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROAD WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45
MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT.
39
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 77 94 75 93 / 20 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 78 94 76 92 / 20 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 81 90 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
POPS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY WERE RAISED A CATEGORY AS RADAR TRENDS
ARE HOLDING STEADY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXPAND POPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FOR
PWAT VALUES AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PROVE TO BE ACCURATE.
&&
.AVIATION... /12 TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BROUGHT TSRA CAPABLE CELLS NOT FAR FROM
DRT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE AS VCSH DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
AND ISOLATED NATURE. LATER TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A PROB30 GROUP
AS INCREASING PWAT TRENDS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT THAT BENEFITS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW
CLOUD...THANKS TO A SOLID SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SITS
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND...AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE MID LEVEL ASCENT TODAY AND INTERACTION WITH BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
(CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. ALSO...A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALONG WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO GONZALES LINE. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA INTO
TONIGHT. THEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRYING IS SHOWN BY
MOST MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS BOTH DAYS FOR THIS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 76 93 75 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 75 92 74 92 / 20 0 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 92 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 91 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 93 73 93 / - 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 20 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 - 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 75 93 75 92 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 74 92 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW PASSING SHRA BUT NOTHING THAT IS
IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR KLBX/LGLS FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT COMES OFF THE GULF.
CIGS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOR
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. KCLL HAD SOME BREIF IFR CIGS BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE
LIFTING. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE DAY.
LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF CIGS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM S/SE AND MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5-10KTS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROAD WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45
MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT.
39
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 77 94 75 93 / 20 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 78 94 76 92 / 20 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 81 90 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45
&&
.MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT.
39
$$
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 77 94 75 93 / 20 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 78 94 76 92 / 20 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 81 90 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
A GENERAL PERSISTENCE TREND IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES OVER THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INSTABILITY OVER NW TX COULD SPREAD
SE INTO THE DRT AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...AND A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD GENERATE GUSTY OUTFLOWS. A WIDE WINDOW FOR TIMING AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THIS
TAF UPDATE FROM INCLUDING THUNDER. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME AND EVENING WINDS GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 27 KNOTS. THE WELL MIXED AIR SHOULD KEEP MORNING STRATUS
LAYERS MAINLY MVFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
UPDATE...
SMALL BATCH OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THAT CONVECTION IS
NOW GONE BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF CHANCE POP OUT WEST ACROSS
MAINLY VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME SH/TS
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
BOARD WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT WITH LARGE CLUSTER OF
STORMS ACROSS NW TEXAS...AND OBVIOUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER TEXAS...WILL KEEP THE POP IN PLACE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN TO OUR AREA.
WINDS STILL REMAIN GUSTY IN MANY LOCATIONS AND THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER NW TEXAS MAY KEEP THEM A BIT STRONGER OVERNIGHT OR
AT LEAST DELAY A DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE THIS EVENING. DID SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT GRIDS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH FEW/SCT050 FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. OFF TO THE NW OF THE REGION...STRONGER TSRA
IS AIDING IN CIRRUS BLOWOFF AND THIS WILL SHIFT OVER KDRT FIRST AND
THEN REST OF REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE TSRA/SHRA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ANY TAF SITES...LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP 05-
08Z ACROSS CENTRAL SITES AND FALL TO LOW MVFR WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF IFR POSSIBLE. HRRR INDICATES SOME CHANCES AT CIGS REDUCING TO 600-
900 FEET AT TIMES 09-14Z BUT FEEL OVERALL LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL. CIGS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR
TO TODAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS LATE AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY CALM OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN NEAR 10-15 KT AND PICK BACK UP TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT BY THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY PEAKING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST (40%) ACROSS
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH CHANCES DECREASING TO 20% ALONG A DEL
RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VAL
VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...DRY AND WARM
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS
ALMOST ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AS SOILS DRY OUT AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
NEAR 100 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 93 75 92 74 / 0 0 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 93 73 / 0 0 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 95 76 95 74 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 92 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 74 / 0 0 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 75 92 74 / 0 0 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1241 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECAST WILL PERSIST AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS
TERMINALS THROUGH TUE MORNING DUE TO PERIODICALLY INCR/DECR CIGS
AND VSBYS AND EMBEDDED TS WITHIN NUMEROUS SHRA. STILL ANTICIPATE
CIGS TO EVENTUALLY DROP WELL INTO MVFR AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE VSBYS FOLLOW THAT TREND AS WELL.
EARLIER THOUGHTS OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY BE PREMATURE. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ALL THREE TERMINALS COULD
BE UNDER MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUE. THIS TREND HAS
BEEN REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. JH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE EXPANSION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST TO
THE NM STATE LINE. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA RECEIVED ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH SEVERAL LARGE AREAS
RECEIVING WELL OVER TWO INCHES AND HAVE CAUSED SOME AREAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THAT WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOOD RISK. JH/GS
AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MAKE TERMINAL
FORECASTS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST FOR KLBB AND KPVW AND A BIT
BEYOND FOR KCDS WITH VSBYS FALLING TO MVFR WITH STRONGER TSRA.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE CIGS DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY TO IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY OUTSIDE
AREAS OF PCPN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. JH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...THE WORK WEEK IS ROARING TO A START. A COLD
FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST
ENTERING AMA AS OF 20Z. WE ALSO HAVE A SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIRD INGREDIENT...AMPLE MOISTURE. AS OF 20Z...WE ARE SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FIRING ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THERE IS THE SET UP.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BREAKOUT OF THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH SHOW A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST DURATION OF RAIN TO BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. HAVE PAID ATTENTION
TO ONE NOTABLE FEATURE PRESENT ON THE GFS AROUND THE 6Z TIME
PERIOD...AN ENHANCED AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA THAT
MAY PROVIDE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THE FRONT AND SFC LOW EXIT THE AREA...THUS TAKING WITH
IT THE RAINFALL. HAVE UPDATED THIS FORECAST TO HAVE THE DRYING TREND
START IN THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH BOTH OF THE EXITING FEATURES LATE
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...
PRECIP WILL STILL BE ONGOING LATE TUES/EARLY WED AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN LIFT BEHIND AN
ALREADY PASSED FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE TROF
LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH BY MID WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AND THIS FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST THRU LATE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WE SIT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND JUST EAST OF A TROF.
RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH THE CENTER OF THE 594 DM
HIGH RIGHT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE PLACING THE WEST TEXAS REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TERRAIN INFLUENCED CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE IN OUR
DIRECTION. UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 69 58 84 / 80 40 20 30
TULIA 61 68 59 82 / 80 50 30 30
PLAINVIEW 62 69 61 82 / 80 60 30 30
LEVELLAND 63 73 61 84 / 80 50 30 30
LUBBOCK 64 73 62 83 / 80 60 40 30
DENVER CITY 66 77 63 85 / 80 50 30 30
BROWNFIELD 64 76 62 85 / 80 60 30 30
CHILDRESS 66 73 64 85 / 90 80 50 30
SPUR 65 75 63 85 / 90 80 50 30
ASPERMONT 68 82 66 88 / 80 80 60 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>038.
&&
$$
02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1117 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL STAY UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO/PA AREA BY
THURSDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGES HEADS WEST ALLOWING A
BACKDOOR FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN DRIFTING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOW.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...AND ONLY SOME VERY MEAGER
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN OH. HRRR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING NOW TO BELOW MENTIONABLE BY 06Z...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE A LINGER SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL BASED ON CURRENT READINGS STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND DEWPOINTS 68 TO 74 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA.
AS OF 1000 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED. SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT REMOVED BY SPC. ONLY LIGHT RAIN TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA
AT THIS TIME...AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITED HEATING TODAY. EVENING SOUNDING
SHOWED 500MB TEMP OF -5C...QUITE WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS FOR
NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
VA/WV/MD.
FOCUS WILL NOW TURN TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE A MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LATE DAY/EVENING EVENT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR WITH A SLIGHT RISK
UP IN THE LWX AREA. OVERALL...WOULD EXPECT TOMORROW TO PRESENT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THAN TODAY...BUT IT MAY
BE A LATE DAY EVENT...WITH NOT MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EVALUATING FLOOD THREAT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THREAT...PIEDMONT REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER NOT HELPING WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SO FAR THERE HAS BASICALLY BEEN NOTHING ACROSS THE
AREA...THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF WHICH IS IN A MARGINAL RISK.
ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE WHETHER OR NOT OUTFLOW FROM DISSIPATING
ACTIVITY IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THIS AREA AND SPARK
OFF NEW CONVECTION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PROBABILITY FOR
THIS TO OCCUR SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT NOTING ACTIVITY DOWN
TOWARD KRDU/KGSO...IT SEEMS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL COORDINATE WITH
SPC AND IF FEELING IS THAT SEVERE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...WILL
REMOVE FROM THIS THREAT FROM THE HWO.
WITH RESPECT TO THE FLOOD THREAT AND THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...WILL LEAVE AS IS SINCE IT ONLY HAS A LITTLE OVER TWO HOURS
LEFT. TO THIS POINT...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FFA. WATCHING AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SPREADING TOWARD THE WV COUNTIES FROM
RALEIGH/FAYETTE/NICHOLAS COUNTY AREA. WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR
NOW...BUT IF THIS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...WILL LIKELY CANCEL FFA
EARLY.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/POPS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ELECTED TO POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST UNTIL
10 PM WITH LOW FFG AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED TO OUR NORTH
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
BEEN HINDERED BY THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECTED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE IN THE UNSTABLE MOIST AIR
WITH CAPES 2 TO 3K J/KG AND LIS FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FROM WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 KTS. WPC
HAS US A SLICE OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO BATH COUNTY VA IN
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WITH VERY LOW 1 TO 3
HOUR FFG. SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED CREEK LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
WITH THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPING OUR AREA IN GENERAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
ENERGY AND AREA OF RAIN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT...WITH MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR US TONIGHT. ADDED FOG TO ISC GRIDS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN SOME CLEARING...LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BEING SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED POPS CLOSER TO GFS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AND TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS SOUTHEAST. SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS PUSH THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL INTO NORTH PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...HEIGHTS FALLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...TO SINK SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A DAILY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN CWA FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT...ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO BECOME HUNG-UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...EXPANDING INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT
WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH. THE
GFS IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF THE SOLUTIONS...ENTERTAINING A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH VCNTY OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED...ITS RUN TO RUN
SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES VS NO
CUTOFF SOLUTION AT ALL.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE FRONTAL
ZONE REMAINING CLOSE...IF NOT ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SUGGESTS A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PATH OF DEEP
CONVECTION. AS SUCH LONG TERM FORECAST REFLECTS A SHOTGUN STANCE
FOR POPS...ALTHOUGH FAVORED THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR GREATEST POPS/THUNDER COINCIDENT WITH PEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMS...ALTHOUGH WOULD
FAVOR SOMETHING JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY
03-04Z/11PM-12AM. AFTER THIS TIME...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
GREATLY WANED ACROSS THE REGION OR DRIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
IN ITS WAKE WILL BE REDUCED DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM BOTH THE
AMBIENT CONDITIONS AND WITHIN AREAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
RECEIVED...OR IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE...A MEASURABLE RAIN OF AT
LEAST ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO DECREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12-13Z/8AM-9AM ON FRIDAY AS
LOW LEVEL MIXING TAKES PLACE AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME SUSTAINED
AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. AT THAT
TIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE...SUBJECT TO DAILY
THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THIS AFTERNOONS SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH LIS AROUND
MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. SFC BASED CAPES ARE RESPECTIVE AT 1000 TO 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED US IN GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN ANY CASE...ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINING WEST OF US. BUT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WORK INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THIS EVENING
THEN GFS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP
STALL A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND
BORDER WEST TO OHIO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST FOR
THE MOST PART...BUT INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
TRIGGER A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PLACED THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST
WITH MARGINAL ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WAVERING SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL TRY TO MAKE INROADS
LATE WEDNESDAY...RETREATING THURSDAY...ONLY TO RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...BUT DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING ARE NOT THAT
CLEAR-CUT...ESP WHEN DEALING WITH A WAVERING FRONT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE TRACK FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER PER FASTER WESTERLIES ALOFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.
INCREASING INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER WIND ENVELOPE WILL ALSO
SUPPORT PULSE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING THURSDAY.
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WILL REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...AND TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE
SOUTH UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS PER INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD AID
IN ADIABATIC WARMING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH 85H TEMPS
APPROACHING +20 DEG C...SURFACE READING SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE L-M 90S PENDING SUNSHINE. WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL...PER THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD TEXAS/OKLAHOMA FOR THE WEEKEND THEN
EXPAND NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT
WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CARVE OUT FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MODELS
HINTING THIS FEATURE WILL CUTOFF OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TOO OR DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION PROMOTING DAILY THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PATH OF DEEP
CONVECTION LACKING. AS SUCH LONG TERM FORECAST REFLECTS A SHOTGUN
STANCE...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR GREATEST POPS/THUNDER COINCIDENT WITH PEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOTHING EXTREME...WILL FAVOR THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...THEN RETREAT TO SOMETHING NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CU AND
STRATOCU INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN KY AND
NRN/WRN WV ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT
AND EALRY WED...THE RISK FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE...ESP AT BLF AND LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WV/MD BORDER WEST TO OHIO BY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF
THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO BURN OFF...ALTHOUGH TAKING A BIT LONGER
THAN USUAL. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE OUR DRIER OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE ARE BETWEEN
IMPULSES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. STILL NOT A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DRY...AS THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AIDED
BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UP STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 AND
MORE INTO WV/FAR SW VA INTO KY. A VERY WARM DAY SINCE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED WITH SW FLOW AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST LOOKS GOOD.
TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO KY AND MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE ACTIVE WX STAYING IN A REGION FROM
MISSOURI TO WRN PA. STILL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY WORK INTO THE MTNS OF WV OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT HIGHER POPS OVER
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO NC MTNS. MUGGY LOWS EXPECTED WITH MID TO UPPER
60S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 70S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CAUSING IT TO STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. REGARDLESS...
STILL SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH RAIN CHANCES
HIGHEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MODEST FOR THE MOST PART...BUT INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR TO TRIGGER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND EXPECT
MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN
CHANCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST FOR THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW FURTHER EAST CAUSING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK UP.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
JUST TO OUR SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR
NORTHWEST FOR ANY APPROACHING DISTURBANCES AS THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHIFT
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK OFF A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM LOW 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES FOR MID/LATE WEEK WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA FOR THE WEEKEND THEN EXPAND NORTHWEST INTO THE
ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WHICH WILL INITIALLY TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THIS
WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WANES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. AS TROUGHING ALOFT INCREASES...EXPECT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGION PROVIDING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADDITION TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO IDENTIFY ANY GIVEN DAY WHERE WE COULD
COMPLETELY REMOVE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...THUS ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT DAILY CHC OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOTHING EXTREME...WILL FAVOR THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...THEN RETREAT TO SOMETHING NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CU AND
STRATOCU INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN KY AND
NRN/WRN WV ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT
AND EALRY WED...THE RISK FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE...ESP AT BLF AND LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WV/MD BORDER WEST TO OHIO BY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF
THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
834 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR ST. LOUIS AT 8 PM THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO CLIP THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND THIS IS ALREADY
HANDLED PRETTY WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS/FORECASTS...SO
LITTLE FORECAST ADJUSTMENT IS NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING BY.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE KENW AREA LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING
BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT DOESN/T APPEAR THESE LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL MAKE IT UP TO MILWAUKEE. OTHER THAN THESE LOWER CIGS EARLY IN
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL IL AND IN/MI
BORDER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
THAT COULD CLIP KENOSHA COUNTY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD INTO OUR SE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE 08.17 HRRR MODEL ISN/T AS OPTIMISTIC WITH
THE PRECIP CHANCES AS IT IS KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS SLOWLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE OTHER SYNOPTIC
MODELS IN BRINGING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMTS IN THE SE SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO INTRODUCED CHANCES OF -RA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LONE ROCK AREA.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
SRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU NT-FRI. 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER WI DURING THIS TIME WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASANT SUMMER WX IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WI SAT/SAT NT. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 1.8 INCHES AS WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION ENSUES. ONLY MARGINAL CAPE IS EXPECTED VIA POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT SHOWERS AND SOME TSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY SAT AFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND SAT NT OVER ALL OF
SRN WI.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
FOR SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY BUT
POSSIBLY BECOME CUTOFF OVER LOWER MI WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WITHIN NW FLOW. THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND MAY AFFECT THE AREA INTO TUE. THUS THERE WILL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUE NT
AND WED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES AS CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD STAY WITHIN VFR CRITERIA. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE ENW TAF SITE AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
TRANSLATES NORTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM THESE
SHOWERS. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE MSN
TAF SITE NEAR LONE ROCK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE 07.17Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 10 KNOTS OR
GREATER CREATING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND IT ALSO
DOES NOT PRODUCE SATURATION AT THE SURFACE KEEPING A 3C TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREAD. THESE SIGNALS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG TO
FORM AND THE AVIATION FORECASTER ALSO IS NOT ENTHUSED ABOUT
FOG...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE NOW IN
CONSENSUS AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE RAIN ALSO STAYING TO THE SOUTH. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD MOVED TO A DRY SOLUTION AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REMAIN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SPREAD ON THE
TIMING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 07.12Z ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BRINGING IT ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE 07.12Z GFS AND GEM LOOK TO BE MUCH
WEAKER WITH IT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN...DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING
WITH THE GFS BLOWING IT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF JUST STARTS TO GET IT TO THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HOLDS IT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. WITH THESE
INCONSISTENCIES...HELD THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT OR LOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS
SIGNAL THAT THE REMAINS OF THE CURRENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
BROKEN CUMULUS OVER THE AIRFIELDS TODAY...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
WE NEAR SUNDOWN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...SUBSIDENCE AND
LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. COOL AIRMASS AS WELL...SO THIS SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR VALLEY FOG. WE DID HAVE RECENT
RAINFALL TO HELP MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT GOOD DRYING
TODAY WORKING TO OFFSET THAT TO A DEGREE. PER PREVIOUS FORECASTER
THINKING...FEEL IT IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE THAT VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE BCFG THAT WAS INTRODUCED FOR KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
927 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND MODEST MID-LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE...SO WE TRENDED
LOWER WITH POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...BUT FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE MOIST LLVL AIR
MASS IN PLACE AFTER RECENT RAINS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD LLVL SATURATION AFTER 06Z WITH WEAK UPSLOPE STAYING INTACT
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS FROM 06-15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLIP SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SE WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR SHOWING A
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NRN COLORADO TO THE SE OF CHEYENNE. IT
APPEARS THIS CIRCULATION IS DRAWING SOME DRIER AIR SOUTH OVER SE
WY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVER THAT AREA. EXPECT THE
BULK OF THE PCPN TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME TSTRMS REFIRING LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS MODEST INSTABILITIES GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA AND WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH WEAK
RIDGING PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
FRIDAY WILL BRING IN WARMING TEMPS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN. SE WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASE INSTABILITIES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THERE...AIDED BY A SFC
TROF THAT SHOULD LIE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVR THE SRN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...YIELDING A GENERALLY DRY
WEEKEND. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVR THE HIER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE 12Z ECMWF BRUSHES THE CWFA WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NRN WYOMING. THE GFS SUGGESTS NO SUCH SHORTWAVE. LEFT ANY MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES AND WARMING
TEMPS. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 15-16C...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NR NORMAL WITH 80S AND SOME LOW 90S EXPECTED.
UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL AMPLIFY RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE MED BOWS AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER/MORE SEASONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE-WED ELSEWHERE...AS UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
FALL IN FLATTENING ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
WYOMING TAFS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH IFR
DEVELOPING AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WITH VFR AT RAWLINS. VFR PREVAILS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEBRASKA TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND
SIDNEY WITH VFR AT ALLIANCE AND CHADRON. BECOMING VFR AT
ALL SITES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR AT
SITES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
NO CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. DRYING SOME ALONG WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT CONDITIONS
REMAINING NON-CRITICAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED IN THE 12Z TAFS. KEEPING IFR CEILING IN
HERE AT KCYS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AT KRWL AND KLAR. WHILE OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CEILINGS AROUNF 4-5K FEET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ109>116.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
359 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...AND THUS ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE BY CLOSE TO AN INCH
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY THIS STILL MEANS THAT
1.50" PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF ARKANSAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY FROM TEXAS. 6Z NAM AND 5Z HRRR ARE BY FAR THE MOST
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS FEATURE...EVEN BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/WRF ARE MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH FFG
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS STILL WELL OVER 2" FOR 6HRS AND 1.5" FOR
2HRS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...AND THE 6Z HRRR COMING IN QUITE A
BIT DRIER...THE PREVAILING THINKING IS THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NATURAL STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS KEEPING
THE CENTER OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE.
SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT FOR THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EVEN HERE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 90 74 93 75 / 30 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 83 69 90 71 / 50 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 94 76 94 76 / 10 0 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 91 70 93 72 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 70 92 72 / 50 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 70 93 72 / 20 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 91 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 93 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST WED JUL 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN USUAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONSOON SEASON...AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DESPITE THE LACK OF STORM ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL RADAR ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSHOWERS THAT SKIRTED
THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY HIGHER TERRAIN A FEW HOURS AGO. 00Z/03Z PSR
BALLOONS INDICATED THE DEEP MIXING PROFILE TODAY AND A THINNING PWAT
SFC DOWN AROUND THE 1 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH DOMINANT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PROFILE. THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALSO SHUNTED THE STORM ACTIVITY
OFF WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTH...KEEPING AREAS OF NM...UT...AND CO
BUSY WITH STORMS THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE RADAR SCOPES WERE GENERALLY QUIET TONIGHT...STRONG
WESTERLY GAP/SUNDOWNER WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES
BETWEEN SAN DIEGO AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES. LATEST OBS OUT OF EL CENTRO
NAS HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S WITH SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN
BLOWING DUST. EVENING CROSS SECTION MODEL FCSTS INDICATE THE STABLE
LAYER DEFLECTION AND RESULTING GUSTY SFC WINDS INTO THE IMPERIAL
VALLEY...AND EVEN A BIT FURTHER INTO THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF
IMPERIAL COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE I8 GRADE INTO IN-KO-PAH THROUGH THURSDAY
AM.
GRID UPDATES TONIGHT INCLUDED EXPANDING THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY
BLOWING DUST/SAND WORDING THROUGH EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL OVERNIGHT. THE
GFS-GEM-NAM 00Z RUNS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP ACTIVITY
BUBBLING UP OVER GILA AND FAR EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY SIMILAR TO THE THIN BAND OF ACTIVITY OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EVENING HI-RES FCSTS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSED...BUT THE HRRR SAT FCST PRODUCT DOES INDICATE SOME COOLER
CLOUD TOPS AND MAYBE A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE RIM AND EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS WHILE MOSTLY ZEROING OUT POPS FOR
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST WITH LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND ADDITIONAL DRYING WORKING INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES
INSTABILITY SOLELY RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE...WITH LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION (SANS SRN GILA COUNTY). THEREFORE...ATTENTION TURNS TO
IMPACTS FROM GUSTY WINDS INCLUDING THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE AND UNSEASONABLE SUNDOWNER EVENT THROUGH SWRN IMPERIAL
COUNTY. THE AREA WEST OF EL CENTRO THROUGH THE IN-KO-PAH GORGE ALONG
I-8 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CREATING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...JUSTIFYING
A WIND ADVISORY FOR JUST THE SMALL SOUTHWEST SEGMENT OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY. WHILE STRONGER WINDS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TRADITIONALLY THE TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS SUGGESTS
AROUND AND THE FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST
GUSTS AND LARGEST IMPACTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH AN
ANOMALOUS JET STREAK AND VORT MAX RAPIDLY SWINGING THROUGH THE
MOHAVE DESERT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT...12Z
KTWC AND KNKX SOUNDINGS SAMPLED H2 WESTERLY WINDS NEAR
100KT...CORRESPONDING TO A U-WIND COMPONENT ANOMALY OF AN IMPRESSIVE
4-5 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE (VERY UN-MONSOON
SEASON LIKE). GIVEN THE UNUSUAL JET STRENGTH...A NICE BULLSEYE OF Q
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY CENTER LIFTS INTO NWRN
ARIZONA...HOWEVER ONLY BRUSHES EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES.
TO VARYING DEGREES...MODELS DO INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
BACKED MIDLEVEL WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING LOW. THUS...SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA WERE RETAINED. THIS LOW ALSO WILL PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES.
HIGH TEMPS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. AS THE FIRST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS...TROUGHING
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. THUS ANTICIPATE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WITH RENEWED
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IS PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF....WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION VERSUS THE ECMWF. EVEN
TAKING THE GFS AT FACE VALUE...1000-700MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS LOOK
BORDERLINE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MODEST
FORECAST CAPE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL IMPINGE UPON SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A SITUATION WHERE STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND BLOWING DUST WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT. OF NOTE...THE GFS BRINGS A PERTURBATION/VORT
MAX THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY BUT CANNOT PUT A LOT OF STOCK IN
THAT SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING...TEMPS
BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW FOR MONDAY THAN THE ECMWF RESULTING IN MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT
STILL LOOKS BORDERLINE. THE GFS THEN SHOWS SOME DECLINE IN MOISTURE
TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGHING MOVES ASHORE AND THE RIDGE SAGS
SOUTHWARD A BIT. STILL NOT AS DRY AS ECMWF BUT ENOUGH SUCH THAT
STORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE MEAGER. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AT MANY OF THE LOW DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING
THE 110 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ELEVATED WEST SFC WINDS TO PERSIST LATE INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE 09/10-11Z AM HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING
THE SHIFT FOR KPHX...BUT BETTER FOR THE SATELLITE AIRFIELDS OF KSDL
AND KIWA. EARLY EVENING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
GNLY AOA 25KFT MOVING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY AM.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS...IN EXCESS OF
35KT...WHICH WILL LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
SUNRISE/13Z WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THEN PICK BACK UP NEAR 18Z
ALBEIT WEAKER. EARLY EVENING SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...GNLY AOA 20-25KFT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AND UNFAVORABLE
FOR EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND STORMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...TO MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SEASON SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...THOUGH COULD BEGIN MOVING
WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN A 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE DURING THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE TO A 15-25 PERCENT RANGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS
AND DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THIS TIME...THOUGH STRONGER
THAN USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...NOLTE/INIGUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...18
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST
AND SOME VALLEYS WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP THIS MORNING. A UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WAS JUST
SOUTH OF MONTEREY CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ONLY
DROP SOUTH TO SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST AND FILLING IN BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALREADY
STARTING TO KICK UP OVER NW KERN COUNTY IN A DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN
LOST HILLS AND BUTTONWILLOW. THE HRRR MODEL INITIATED WELL AND
SHOWED THESE SHOWERS BEING SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE TO THE NE. NOT
MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF TODAY. HOWEVER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MTNS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND MT BALDY IN L.A.
COUNTY WAS INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST THERE WAS ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
MOISTURE POOL WAS AROUND 700 MB OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS WHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERCEPTIBLE WATERS WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH OF AVAILABLE PW TO WORK WITH. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS...AND WESTERLY STEERING WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP STORMS
MOVE ALONG MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AROUND
THE LOCKWOOD VALLEY AREA WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY FLOODED
ROADS.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE VERY DEEP
MARINE LAYER OR DEEP (STABLE)MOIST LAYER AS HIGH AS 5000 FT DEEP
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OR EVEN SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND LA CANADA AND LA
CRESCENTA FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALL DAY ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR VALLEYS IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. OR...THERE COULD BE A REVERSE
CLEARING SITUATION WHERE THE BEACHES CLEAR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S AS WELL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR LANCASTER THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
AROUND 97 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING NE...ANOTHER DEEPER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND NUDGE INTO THE MOST SOUTHERN
PORTION OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BOTH
FRI AND SAT A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER AZ/EASTERN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TRIES TO NUDGE IN UNDER THE TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO GET MORE CONTROL OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH RETREATS A BIT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
TUE/WED WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND VALLEYS...LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHILE COAST AND SOME COASTAL VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION WILL BE
SHALLOWER SO VALLEYS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKER WHILE A FEW BEACH CITIES
MIGHT FIND IT TOUGH TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...09/0703Z.
AT 06Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS BASED AROUND 4300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KLAX AND KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...08/900 PM.
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE E SBA CHANNEL
THIS EVENING...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA IN ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING
TO SCA LEVELS IN THE OUTER WATERS SUN AND MON.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US...AND DIFFLUENT/SW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES PLAINS...ONE OVER WYOMING...THE OTHER OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS IN NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA...HOWEVER BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE WELL SOUTH. GOOD MOISTURE AND LIMITED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MUCH
DRIER THAN GUIDANCE 12HR AGO. AREA OBS/SATELLITE SHOW LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS...AND WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE IN PLACE I DECIDED TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE (PWATS/TD). AS THE DAY GOES ON CAPE
VALUES INCREASE...AND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG KS/CO BORDER MAY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF MODEL
CONTINUITY/CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE FEATURES.
I KEPT 20-40 POPS IN PLACE BASED ON MODEL PRECIP SIGNALS/CURRENT
CONSENSUS TIMING FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY TODAY AS EVEN WITH LESS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS. I COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEPENDING ON CLEARING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER...WITH THE DECREE OF WAA ADVERTISED BY EVEN
CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 90F. IN
FACT...MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE
AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100F. SOME GUIDANCES KEEPS SURFACE TROUGH A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY "COOLER"...HOWEVER
EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER ACROSS A LOT OF THE AREA. STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
DUE TO RIDGE. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. IM NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS...BUT DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WEST AND ELONGATE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY... RAISING POPS INTO
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. CAPE AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE MODEST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE A RISK FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND RAISE POPS ONCE MORE ACROSS THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BEING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED. BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AS GULF MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON THIS
FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1255 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO UPDATED
FORECAST FOR EXPIRATION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO LMK...WILL BE ENDING THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SHORT-
LIVED...AND NOT THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS NEEDED TO WARRANT THE
WATCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS THROUGH 06Z.
THERE IS QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
ADVERTISED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER ARKANSAS...AND
MISSOURI IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE THAT FAR BEHIND.
THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE
00Z-06Z PERIOD. IN BOTH CASES...THE CONVECTION REALLY WEAKENS...IF
NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATES...AS IT REACHES SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEST KENTUCKY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN
ACTIVITY...AND SPARES MOST OF THE AREA FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF.
TRIED TO USE THE NAM/HRRR SOLUTIONS AS A GUIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP...SO
THE NORTHWEST SEGMENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
06Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.
FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS ALL DRAPE THE FRONT ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE NAM DEVELOPS
AND HOLDS ONTO WEAKER CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE FRONT
THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO THE CONVECTION FOR AWHILE. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND THAT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE A SMALL POP FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE GETTING HOT BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO THE LOWER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
ECMWF, GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SLOWLY SLIDING WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, MOVING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. MODELS ALL
SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED TROF GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RETURN TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF OF COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AND EXPANDING SOUTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR INTO OUR
REGION. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTHEAST, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT ALL FORECAST
TERMINALS. BY LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...A TREND
TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS IS ANTICIPATED. AT THIS POINT...WE BELIEVE
THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD PUT A DAMPER ON ANY DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF MORE
SUNSHINE MATERIALIZES...WE MAY NEED TO ADD A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN LATER FORECASTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
Main near term concern is the chances for renewed convective
development over the eastern cwfa.
A pocket of somewhat higher instability has developed over south
central MO where sfc temperatures have risen into the low-mid
80s. Progged RUC instability of 500-1000 j/kg is expected in this
area this afternoon. High resolution models are tending to
intensify convection along/ahead of the ongoing showers, at least
on a scattered basis. A continued strong low level inflow/jet will
enhance low level helicity with the potential of stronger
storms/low topped supercells. Already seeing weak rotation with
convection in the northeast cwfa. Helicity may be enhanced by west-
east warm front over central/east central MO. HRRR develops
somewhat stronger updrafts toward 21z-22z and then on into the
early evening. Some sw-ne training of convection may occur over our
eastern counties as well early this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
Another shortwave is progged to move into eastern KS late in the
day with further chances for renewed precip into Thu night. In
general, better precip chances will then shift north of the area
for a bit as an upper level ridge works it`s way over the region
Fri-Sat-Sun. Very warm/hot/steamy weather is then expected Fri
into early next week. First look at general guidance has low 90s
for highs for this time frame (Fri-Mon).
Active weather then may occur again by Tue-Wed as the upper
pattern amplifies as a ridge builds over Rockies and we are under
upper level nw flow. Hard to get too detailed yet out that far.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
IFR conditions developing this evening across the forecast area in
the wake of showers and thunderstorms earlier. Ceilings have
dipped at or below 1500 feet with visibilities starting to
decrease to around 3 miles at SGF. Scattered showers starting to
develop along a boundary stretching from near BBG into northeast
OK. Have gone with VCSH wording at BBG taf overnight. IFR
conditions expected at all 3 sites. Convection will expand
northward on Thursday with scattered showers/thunderstorms
expected during the afternoon/evening at the 3 taf sites.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ082-083-096>098-
104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
T-STORMS IN NRN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION DISSIPATING TO SHOWERS
NOW AND WILL HAVE SCT -SHRA IN SMALL AERA IN LOW REGION TIL 07Z.
O/W REMAINING PATCHY CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL MOVE OUT.
CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME PATCHY FOG AS HRRR DOES
INDICATE PATCHY LOW VSBY IN SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...THEN TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON INSTABILITY.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE GONE AROUND
3Z...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS THIS WAY. PATCHY FOG CAN/T BE RULED OUT
LATER TONIGHT...AND BUFKIT INDICATES FOG IS FAVORED IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE DVL
BASIN 8-13Z.
FOR THU....EXPECT A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING
AND A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AS WELL...AND A NICE SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
ON FRIDAY...EVEN WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE
ONLY THING THAT COULD LIMIT TEMPS IS IF SMOKE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT IF THERE IS NO SMOKE IT COULD BE AROUND 90.
FOR SAT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH PWATS RISING
OVER 1.5 INCHES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH WITH NO REAL SFC
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS MAINLY VALLEY WEST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM AND IF THERE IS SMOKE AIR
QUALITY COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN.
.EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
THINKING REGARDING THIS PERIOD. SUNDAY SHOWS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNSURE HOW
WIDESPREAD/STRONG STORMS WILL BE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE WITHIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION GIVES THUNDER CHANCES EVERY DAY...BEST
CHANCES PROBABLY MORE TOWARD MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
PATCHY GROUND FOG PSBL EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND DAWN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND VSBY KEEPS ME FROM MENTIONING FOG AT ANY
TAF SITE ATTM. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND THURSDAY AFTN. GUST TO NR 20 KTS
PSBL WEST OF THE RRV THU AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...TG/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
248 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW LIES TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW. THROUGH TODAY, THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS TREK, THE INFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. THIS WILL
LEAVE TODAY AS THE LAST BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
MOISTURE AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE
MAIN CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION, STORMS TODAY ARE
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CONCENTRATING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE CASCADES OF OREGON, AND SOME ARE SUGGESTING A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ORBITING THE LOW TO THE SOUTH, FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES AND
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES, AND
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE, AND THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
THE NAM AND GFS BRING THE WAVE THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR BRINGS IT IN SLIGHTLY
EARLIER. THE LATER SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY, GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME. THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO
DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE EARLIER,
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING, AND THEREFORE LIMIT
CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS THE LESSER POSSIBILITY, BUT STILL A
POSSIBILITY. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER, AND THIS
COULD TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, SHOULD
ANY AREAS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY, A SECOND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG IN ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME RESIDUAL
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, AND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO
NEAR NOTHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR DOWNWARD SWING AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER KEEPS THE INCOMING
SUNLIGHT AT BAY. AS AN EXAMPLE, WEDNESDAY WAS THE FIRST IN FIFTEEN
DAYS THAT THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT GET ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN MEDFORD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/06Z TAF CYCLE...FOR INLAND AREAS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FROM 21Z-04Z. STRONG GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS.
ALONG THE COAST...A MIX OF MFR/IFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED MVFR OR IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR TO
VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN A MIX OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN DURING THE EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 01Z-04Z.
/CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND VARIABLE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR AND LIFT TODAY BUT THEN EXPECT LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DOMINATE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL BE LOW TO
MODERATE IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET DUE TO
MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONGER PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED RETURN TO THE
COAST WITH INCREASED NORTH WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS AROUND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH. /CC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 240 AM PDT, THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015... LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MONTERREY BAY, CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
IT DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST TODAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CURRY COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO INCREASED
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN STORM CORES.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO SOME
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
BPN/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL AND INTO EASTERN AR. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE TN/KY BORDER. LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ISOL ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE LATER TODAY.
THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...BUT
ONLY FOR THE NORTH HALF.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE TREND REMAINS THE SAME. UPPER HIGH
WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
BE LOW(GENERALLY 20%) AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE AFT AND EVE
HOURS AND ACROSS THE NORTH.
FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...VALUES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR TODAY LOOKS LIKELY. UPPER
RIDGING DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF ITS
WESTWARD MOMENT. THEREFORE...TEMPS MAY BACK DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
BY SAT.
IN THE EXT FCST...NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 1ST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED...THE FLOW WILL CARRY A SMALL DEGREE OF
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. BY THE END OF THE EXT...THE FLOW WILL
STRAIGHTEN OUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM.
THUS...POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH 22C FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL EQUATE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(ABOUT 5F OR SO).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 71 91 71 / 20 20 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 90 70 91 70 / 20 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 89 67 84 66 / 10 20 20 20
COLUMBIA 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 91 71 92 70 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. REMOVED THE MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AT KCKV BUT
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKING WESTWARD BY 07-08Z FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
BRIEF SHOWER. WILL LEAVE OUT OF PREVAILING FOR NOW AND AMD AS
NECESSARY.
A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DROPPING STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE THURSDAY
EVENING. HAVE ADDED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TS BY 00Z FRIDAY AT
KCKV WITH A VCTS.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAS REASSERTED
ITSELF TODAY, PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST A
BIT FARTHER AWAY, ENABLING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND KEEPING THE RAIN AWAY. EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX
DOES SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS EVENING, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.37 INCHES, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, A 1011 MB LOW IS SITUATED
NEAR ST. LOUIS, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT RUNNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THERE IS PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
SLIPPING INTO WESTERN KY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WE ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED POP`S IN OUR FAR NW FOR TONIGHT. AM NOT INCLINED TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HOURLY GRIDS SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP WELL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. UPDATED
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MENTIONED THAT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO
NORTHWEST TN. WILL HAVE THE UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS OUT
SOON.
JCL
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO THE NORTH...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE NAM IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH SHOWING
INCREASING 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...LIMITING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST IS THE TRANSITION BACK TO
DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WAS
ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN WEST-CENTRAL MO WITH AN ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ORIENTED EAST/WEST SOUTH OF I-70.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN
STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BEST COLLOCATION OF
THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS IS LOCATED ACROSS E MO/SRN IL. SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...WIND FIELDS ALOFT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MID-SOUTH BEGINS A SLOW WARM
UP. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20 C
ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S ON THURSDAY INCREASING TO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL STILL BE OPPRESSIVE FOR THOSE
WORKING FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
IN THE LONG-TERM...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO
SMALLER-SCALE PATTERN DETAILS...BUT MOST LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A CUTOFF LOW/VORT MAX WILL BECOME
DISPLACED FROM THE LARGER HUDSON BAY CIRCULATION BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING OFF ENERGY...BUT
AGREES THAT A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
COOLER/WETTER PERIOD WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BUT DETAILS OF
SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION
06Z TAFS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A STRAY SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE AT JBR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AT 5 TO 11 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM...JBR
AND MKL BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 10/01Z.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. UPDATED
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MENTIONED THAT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO
NORTHWEST TN. WILL HAVE THE UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS OUT
SOON.
JCL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO THE NORTH...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE NAM IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH SHOWING
INCREASING 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...LIMITING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST IS THE TRANSITION BACK TO
DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WAS
ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN WEST-CENTRAL MO WITH AN ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ORIENTED EAST/WEST SOUTH OF I-70.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN
STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BEST COLLOCATION OF
THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS IS LOCATED ACROSS E MO/SRN IL. SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...WIND FIELDS ALOFT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MID-SOUTH BEGINS A SLOW WARM
UP. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20 C
ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S ON THURSDAY INCREASING TO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL STILL BE OPPRESSIVE FOR THOSE
WORKING FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
IN THE LONG-TERM...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO
SMALLER-SCALE PATTERN DETAILS...BUT MOST LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A CUTOFF LOW/VORT MAX WILL BECOME
DISPLACED FROM THE LARGER HUDSON BAY CIRCULATION BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING OFF ENERGY...BUT
AGREES THAT A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
COOLER/WETTER PERIOD WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BUT DETAILS OF
SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION NUISANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SMALL
WINDOW NEAR SUNRISE WHEN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. BROKEN LINE OF
T-STORMS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
SKIRTING JBR...OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL BE DRY AND VFR.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
353 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The subtropical ridge over the southeast states will begin
to build west into Texas the next 24 hours, and will be the
main weather feature affecting our weather through tonight.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
east-southeast across the Texas Panhandle and far northwest Texas
early this morning. This activity will track east along the Red
River Valley through the morning hours, with the majority of the
precipitation remaining north of the area. The HRRR however, does
generate some QPF across Haskell and Throckmorton counties this
morning. Cannot rule this out so have added slight POPs to the
forecast for both counties this morning. Otherwise, morning cloud
cover will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon, with
highs around 90 degrees. We`ll see some stratus redevelop late
tonight across southern sections, with overnight lows around 70
degrees.
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
On Friday, an upper level ridge across the Southeast United States
will continue to build west toward West Central Texas. In the
meantime, daytime heating should allow for the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Texas. The 00z NAM
is the most aggressive with this scenario, which drifts the
convection east, toward our western counties. Whether any of this
convection makes it into our western counties will be dependent on
the strength of the developing ridge, but for now the forecast was
kept dry. Highs on Friday will be below seasonal normals,
generally in the lower 90s.
A much quieter weather pattern is expected this weekend through much
of next week as an upper level ridge dominates the weather.
Temperatures will slowly creep up each day, although plentiful soil
moisture should help to keep temperatures a few degrees below MOS
guidance. High temperatures for the first part of next week will
generally be in the mid to upper 90s, although a few locations may
reach the century mark. No rain is forecast through the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 90 70 91 71 91 / 5 0 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 70 92 71 92 / 5 5 5 5 0
Junction 91 70 90 70 90 / 5 0 5 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JW/Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015
.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SCT/BKN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR STRATUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO BKN MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
IN THE MID LEVELS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...THAT REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WHATS LEFT OF A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT A LINE FROM GRAYSON COUNTY...THROUGH DENTON COUNTY TO
PARKER AND EARTH COUNTIES...THEN DOWN INTO COMANCHE COUNTY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR THAT AREA. WHERE THIS FRONT MOVES WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. WHERE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT TRACKS WILL BE
THE MOST CONCERNING. THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...THEY BOTH HAVE IT TRACKING EAST AND THEN
LIFTING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO FALL APART AT THIS POINT IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS AND THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...WITH THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
REMOVED.
BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THEREFORE, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
MIGHT START TO SEE SOME OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THIS
YEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT SOME
CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE KEEP WEATHER OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
78.JG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 93 76 94 76 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 92 73 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 72 91 73 93 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 74 91 72 94 72 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 75 93 74 92 74 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 76 93 77 95 78 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 74 91 74 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 75 91 75 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 91 72 92 72 / 5 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 90 71 91 71 / 10 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
134 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL STAY UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO/PA AREA BY
THURSDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGES HEADS WEST ALLOWING A
BACKDOOR FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE VIRGINIAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN DRIFTING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOW.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...AND ONLY SOME VERY MEAGER
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN OH. HRRR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
OCCURRING NOW TO BELOW MENTIONABLE BY 06Z...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE A LINGER SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL BASED ON CURRENT READINGS STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND DEWPOINTS 68 TO 74 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA.
AS OF 1000 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED. SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT REMOVED BY SPC. ONLY LIGHT RAIN TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA
AT THIS TIME...AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITED HEATING TODAY. EVENING SOUNDING
SHOWED 500MB TEMP OF -5C...QUITE WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS FOR
NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
VA/WV/MD.
FOCUS WILL NOW TURN TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE A MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LATE DAY/EVENING EVENT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR WITH A SLIGHT RISK
UP IN THE LWX AREA. OVERALL...WOULD EXPECT TOMORROW TO PRESENT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THAN TODAY...BUT IT MAY
BE A LATE DAY EVENT...WITH NOT MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EVALUATING FLOOD THREAT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THREAT...PIEDMONT REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER NOT HELPING WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SO FAR THERE HAS BASICALLY BEEN NOTHING ACROSS THE
AREA...THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF WHICH IS IN A MARGINAL RISK.
ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE WHETHER OR NOT OUTFLOW FROM DISSIPATING
ACTIVITY IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH THIS AREA AND SPARK
OFF NEW CONVECTION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PROBABILITY FOR
THIS TO OCCUR SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT NOTING ACTIVITY DOWN
TOWARD KRDU/KGSO...IT SEEMS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL COORDINATE WITH
SPC AND IF FEELING IS THAT SEVERE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...WILL
REMOVE FROM THIS THREAT FROM THE HWO.
WITH RESPECT TO THE FLOOD THREAT AND THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...WILL LEAVE AS IS SINCE IT ONLY HAS A LITTLE OVER TWO HOURS
LEFT. TO THIS POINT...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FFA. WATCHING AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SPREADING TOWARD THE WV COUNTIES FROM
RALEIGH/FAYETTE/NICHOLAS COUNTY AREA. WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR
NOW...BUT IF THIS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...WILL LIKELY CANCEL FFA
EARLY.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/POPS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ELECTED TO POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST UNTIL
10 PM WITH LOW FFG AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED TO OUR NORTH
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
BEEN HINDERED BY THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECTED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE IN THE UNSTABLE MOIST AIR
WITH CAPES 2 TO 3K J/KG AND LIS FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FROM WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 KTS. WPC
HAS US A SLICE OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO BATH COUNTY VA IN
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WITH VERY LOW 1 TO 3
HOUR FFG. SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED CREEK LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
WITH THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPING OUR AREA IN GENERAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
ENERGY AND AREA OF RAIN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT...WITH MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR US TONIGHT. ADDED FOG TO ISC GRIDS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN SOME CLEARING...LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BEING SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED POPS CLOSER TO GFS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AND TAPERING OFF AS ONE
HEADS SOUTHEAST. SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS PUSH THE MARGINAL
POTENTIAL INTO NORTH PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN RETROGRADE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...HEIGHTS FALLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...TO SINK SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A DAILY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN CWA FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT...ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO BECOME HUNG-UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...EXPANDING INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT
WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH. THE
GFS IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF THE SOLUTIONS...ENTERTAINING A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH VCNTY OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED...ITS RUN TO RUN
SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES VS NO
CUTOFF SOLUTION AT ALL.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE FRONTAL
ZONE REMAINING CLOSE...IF NOT ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SUGGESTS A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PATH OF DEEP
CONVECTION. AS SUCH LONG TERM FORECAST REFLECTS A SHOTGUN STANCE
FOR POPS...ALTHOUGH FAVORED THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR GREATEST POPS/THUNDER COINCIDENT WITH PEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMS...ALTHOUGH WOULD
FAVOR SOMETHING JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PROBABILITY OF FOG INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT. MODELS ARE NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD
BUT HAVE TEMPO FOR DENSE FOG AT LWB...WHILE BCB MAY HIT IFR AT
TIMES BETWEEN 09-12Z. A LITTLE FOG AT DANVILLE WILL OCCUR ALSO BUT
EXPECT ONLY MVFR AT TIMES BETWEEN 09-13Z.
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY NORTH OF A BLF-LYH LINE...BUT THE LATEST
MODELS HOLD OFF ON ANY THREAT UNTIL LATE EVENING...AND EVEN THEN
IT IS LOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE...SUBJECT TO DAILY
THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
DRY WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS
IT TRACKS FROM CENTRAL IL TO THE IN/OH/MI BORDER AREA AROUND
12Z...AND PA/NY BY 00Z FRI. 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT SWEEPS ACROSS U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...MOVING EAST OF THE STATE BY 18Z.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE NOTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE...BUT THIS LAYER
NEVER FULLY SATURATES ON THE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE ALSO SUPPORTS NO
MORE THAN SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CUMULUS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ON NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...THEN TEMPS STEADY OUT AS WINDS TURN NW TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MID-UPPER 70S...WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE FAR EAST.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
500 MB RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER MN/IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI AND SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE LOWER 80S BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AS LONG AS THE CLOUDS
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH IOWA WILL
COMBINE WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850MB FRONTOGENESIS TO
BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL COOLING
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAPE OVER THE AREA. THE
LLJ SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE VEERING AWAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN MCS-LIKE
FEATURE DEVELOPING IN THE IA/WI/IL AREA. SPC HAS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE THE TIME HANDLING THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES... IT SEEMS THEY ARE
HEADING TOWARD AGREEMENT... AT LEAST FOR THE SATURDAY-SAT NT TIME
FRAME.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT IN THE MORNING. THEN ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STATIONED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WI
AREA SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE 00Z ECWMF IS MAINTAINING A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS BACK TO ITS NORTHERLY SOLUTION. THUS... LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS
STILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
WI... BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHICH
SIDE OF THE FRONT THEY ARE ON. THE HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHOWS
NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK... SO EXPECT THIS
NORTHWESTERLY... ACTIVE AND UNCERTAIN FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN WI.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE FAR SE TO LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 03Z SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE...BUT THIS LAYER NEVER FULLY
SATURATES ON THE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE ALSO SUPPORTS NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN VFR LEVEL CUMULUS. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS
OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY. NAM GUIDANCE ALONE IN SHOWING ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH FOG
AT TAF SITES...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1011 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND MODEST MID-LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE...SO WE TRENDED
LOWER WITH POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...BUT FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE MOIST LLVL AIR
MASS IN PLACE AFTER RECENT RAINS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD LLVL SATURATION AFTER 06Z WITH WEAK UPSLOPE STAYING INTACT
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS FROM 06-15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLIP SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SE WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR SHOWING A
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NRN COLORADO TO THE SE OF CHEYENNE. IT
APPEARS THIS CIRCULATION IS DRAWING SOME DRIER AIR SOUTH OVER SE
WY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVER THAT AREA. EXPECT THE
BULK OF THE PCPN TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME TSTRMS REFIRING LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS MODEST INSTABILITIES GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA AND WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH WEAK
RIDGING PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
FRIDAY WILL BRING IN WARMING TEMPS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN. SE WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASE INSTABILITIES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THERE...AIDED BY A SFC
TROF THAT SHOULD LIE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVR THE SRN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPS WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...YIELDING A GENERALLY DRY
WEEKEND. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVR THE HIER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE 12Z ECMWF BRUSHES THE CWFA WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NRN WYOMING. THE GFS SUGGESTS NO SUCH SHORTWAVE. LEFT ANY MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES AND WARMING
TEMPS. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 15-16C...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NR NORMAL WITH 80S AND SOME LOW 90S EXPECTED.
UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL AMPLIFY RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE MED BOWS AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BETTER/MORE SEASONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE-WED ELSEWHERE...AS UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
FALL IN FLATTENING ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
WYOMING TAFS...MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH IFR DEVELOPING AT LARAMIE
AND CHEYENNE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH VFR AT RAWLINS.
VFR PREVAILS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEBRASKA TAFS...IFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR AT ALL
SITES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR AT SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2015
NO CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. DRYING SOME ALONG WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT CONDITIONS
REMAINING NON-CRITICAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
641 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTH AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST ELSEWHERE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWEHERE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...AND THUS ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE BY CLOSE TO AN INCH
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY THIS STILL MEANS THAT
1.50" PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF ARKANSAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY FROM TEXAS. 6Z NAM AND 5Z HRRR ARE BY FAR THE MOST
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS FEATURE...EVEN BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/WRF ARE MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH FFG
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS STILL WELL OVER 2" FOR 6HRS AND 1.5" FOR
2HRS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...AND THE 6Z HRRR COMING IN QUITE A
BIT DRIER...THE PREVAILING THINKING IS THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NATURAL STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS KEEPING
THE CENTER OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE.
SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT FOR THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EVEN HERE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 90 74 93 75 / 30 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 83 69 90 71 / 50 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 94 76 94 76 / 10 0 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 91 70 93 72 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 70 92 72 / 50 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 91 75 93 76 / 20 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 70 93 72 / 20 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 91 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 93 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
844 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BRING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS HAVE PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. 12Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.09 INCH. THUS MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS OF
THE SJV. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...IR/WV IMAGERY INDICATING THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...IS FINALLY PUSHING INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BEING THE MOST FAVORED AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS FOR THE
PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE LOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES OF THE COASTAL RANGE. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THROUGH 500 AM PDT THIS
MORNING WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR CWFA TODAY
AND PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUDS...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
7-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TODAY. THE 06Z WRF IS INDICATING THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD...BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ON FRIDAY AS THE
PREVAILING AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
THIS WEEKEND. RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD AND RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING DRIER AIR AT
THE MID/UPPER LAYERS SO OUR AREA SO EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND FREE OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST ON
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
INDICATING CENTRAL CA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY UNTIL 03Z. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-09 113:1905 78:1936 81:2008 55:1983
KFAT 07-10 112:2008 81:1974 82:2008 54:1904
KFAT 07-11 110:1961 82:1888 78:2002 52:1974
KBFL 07-09 113:1905 83:1980 84:2008 52:1923
KBFL 07-10 113:1905 82:1936 85:2008 51:1914
KBFL 07-11 110:1961 83:1936 79:2002 51:1906
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
750 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION
TOMORROW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES AND LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG RESTRICTED TO TYPICAL AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP THIS MORNING. A UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WAS JUST
SOUTH OF MONTEREY CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ONLY
DROP SOUTH TO SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST AND FILLING IN BY THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
STARTING TO KICK UP OVER NW KERN COUNTY NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN
LOST HILLS AND BUTTONWILLOW. THE HRRR MODEL INITIATED WELL AND
SHOWED THESE SHOWERS BEING SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE TO THE NE. NOT
MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF TODAY. HOWEVER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MTNS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND MT BALDY IN L.A.
COUNTY WAS INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST THERE WAS ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
MOISTURE POOL WAS AROUND 700 MB OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS WHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE COMBINATION OF MODEST PW...AND WESTERLY STEERING WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH WILL HELP STORMS MOVE ALONG MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES AROUND THE LOCKWOOD VALLEY AREA WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALLY FLOODED ROADS.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE VERY DEEP
MARINE LAYER OR DEEP (STABLE)MOIST LAYER AS HIGH AS 5000 FT DEEP
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OR EVEN SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND LA CANADA AND LA
CRESCENTA FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALL DAY ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR VALLEYS IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. OR...THERE COULD BE A REVERSE
CLEARING SITUATION WHERE THE BEACHES CLEAR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S AS WELL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR LANCASTER THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
AROUND 97 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING NE...ANOTHER DEEPER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND NUDGE INTO THE MOST SOUTHERN
PORTION OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BOTH
FRI AND SAT A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER AZ/EASTERN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TRIES TO NUDGE IN UNDER THE TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO GET MORE CONTROL OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH RETREATS A BIT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
TUE/WED WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND VALLEYS...LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHILE COAST AND SOME COASTAL VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION WILL BE
SHALLOWER SO VALLEYS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKER WHILE A FEW BEACH CITIES
MIGHT FIND IT TOUGH TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...09/0703Z.
AT 06Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS BASED AROUND 4300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KLAX AND KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...09/300 AM.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...RM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
312 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
UPDATED MARINE SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY BRINING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR COAST
AND SOME VALLEYS WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING
UP THIS MORNING. A UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WAS JUST
SOUTH OF MONTEREY CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ONLY
DROP SOUTH TO SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST AND FILLING IN BY THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
STARTING TO KICK UP OVER NW KERN COUNTY NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN
LOST HILLS AND BUTTONWILLOW. THE HRRR MODEL INITIATED WELL AND
SHOWED THESE SHOWERS BEING SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE TO THE NE. NOT
MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF TODAY. HOWEVER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MTNS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND MT BALDY IN L.A.
COUNTY WAS INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST THERE WAS ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
MOISTURE POOL WAS AROUND 700 MB OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS WHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE COMBINATION OF MODEST PW...AND WESTERLY STEERING WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH WILL HELP STORMS MOVE ALONG MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES AROUND THE LOCKWOOD VALLEY AREA WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALLY FLOODED ROADS.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE VERY DEEP
MARINE LAYER OR DEEP (STABLE)MOIST LAYER AS HIGH AS 5000 FT DEEP
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OR EVEN SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND LA CANADA AND LA
CRESCENTA FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALL DAY ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR VALLEYS IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. OR...THERE COULD BE A REVERSE
CLEARING SITUATION WHERE THE BEACHES CLEAR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER
80S AS WELL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR LANCASTER THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
AROUND 97 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING NE...ANOTHER DEEPER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND NUDGE INTO THE MOST SOUTHERN
PORTION OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BOTH
FRI AND SAT A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER AZ/EASTERN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TRIES TO NUDGE IN UNDER THE TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO GET MORE CONTROL OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH RETREATS A BIT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
TUE/WED WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND VALLEYS...LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHILE COAST AND SOME COASTAL VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE INVERSION WILL BE
SHALLOWER SO VALLEYS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKER WHILE A FEW BEACH CITIES
MIGHT FIND IT TOUGH TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...09/0703Z.
AT 06Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS BASED AROUND 4300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 5400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KLAX AND KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LINGERING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...09/300 AM.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
325 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/WV IMAGERY INDICATING THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS
BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...IS FINALLY PUSHING INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BEING THE MOST FAVORED AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS FOR THE
PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE LOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES OF THE COASTAL RANGE. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THROUGH 500 AM PDT THIS
MORNING WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR CWFA TODAY
AND PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUDS...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
7-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TODAY. THE 06Z WRF IS INDICATING THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD...BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ON FRIDAY AS THE
PREVAILING AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
THIS WEEKEND. RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD AND RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING DRIER AIR AT
THE MID/UPPER LAYERS SO OUR AREA SO EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND FREE OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST ON
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
INDICATING CENTRAL CA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-09 113:1905 78:1936 81:2008 55:1983
KFAT 07-10 112:2008 81:1974 82:2008 54:1904
KFAT 07-11 110:1961 82:1888 78:2002 52:1974
KBFL 07-09 113:1905 83:1980 84:2008 52:1923
KBFL 07-10 113:1905 82:1936 85:2008 51:1914
KBFL 07-11 110:1961 83:1936 79:2002 51:1906
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING CAZ089-091.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1010 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO ERODE A BIT... WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL SEEING
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM ABOUT PEORIA-LINCOLN EASTWARD IN THE
LOWER CLOUDS...BUT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HRRR TRYING
TO SHOW THE CLOUDS CONTRACTING FROM ALL SIDES...WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW THE HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A BIT AND CONCENTRATED THE LOWER READINGS
ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1010MB LOW JUST NORTH OF KDNV...WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. AS THE LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...FRONT WILL SETTLE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...TODAY WILL BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DESPITE THE
DRYING TREND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SO PROSPECTS FOR CLEARING ARE BLEAK. DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
WITH FRONT GETTING PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOUTHWARD AS WELL
TONIGHT. BOTH GFS AND NAM NOW SHOW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORMING
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING E/SE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO FEATURE ONLY LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO
MATTOON LINE TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...HOWEVER IF 12Z MODELS SHIFT IT FURTHER NORTHWARD A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. AFTER
MORNING STORM COMPLEX TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
I-74 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...HOWEVER 00Z JULY 9 GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH WEAKER WITH THE
RIDGE. THIS MEANS THE ONCE DRY FORECAST WILL NOW BE REPLACED BY A
MORE UNSETTLED SCENARIO WHERE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT MCS LOOKS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING OVER
IOWA...THEN TRACK E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS NORTH
OF THE PEORIA AREA AT THAT TIME...TAPERING DOWN TO DRY CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF I-70. AFTER THAT...RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS ONCE
THOUGHT. END RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HUMID WEATHER
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIFR CLOUDS AND MVFR FOG THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE WE SHOULD
SEE VIS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS
LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
ALL TERMINAL SITES BY SUNSET, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MVFR FOG REDEVELOPS WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AT 8-12KT TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
529 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US...AND DIFFLUENT/SW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES PLAINS...ONE OVER WYOMING...THE OTHER OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS IN NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA...HOWEVER BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE WELL SOUTH. GOOD MOISTURE AND LIMITED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MUCH
DRIER THAN GUIDANCE 12HR AGO. AREA OBS/SATELLITE SHOW LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS...AND WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE IN PLACE I DECIDED TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE (PWATS/TD). AS THE DAY GOES ON CAPE
VALUES INCREASE...AND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG KS/CO BORDER MAY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF MODEL
CONTINUITY/CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE FEATURES.
I KEPT 20-40 POPS IN PLACE BASED ON MODEL PRECIP SIGNALS/CURRENT
CONSENSUS TIMING FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY TODAY AS EVEN WITH LESS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS. I COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEPENDING ON CLEARING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER...WITH THE DECREE OF WAA ADVERTISED BY EVEN
CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 90F. IN
FACT...MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE
AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100F. SOME GUIDANCES KEEPS SURFACE TROUGH A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY "COOLER"...HOWEVER
EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER ACROSS A LOT OF THE AREA. STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
DUE TO RIDGE. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. IM NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS...BUT DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WEST AND ELONGATE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY... RAISING POPS INTO
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. CAPE AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE MODEST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE A RISK FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND RAISE POPS ONCE MORE ACROSS THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. HOWEVER...BESIDES ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR
KGLD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING/COVERAGE. I DECIDED TO ONLY INCLUDE MENTION AT KGLD FOR
NOW. STRATUS AND FOG AND DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
AROUND BOTH TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID MORNING...HOWEVER BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. I WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD DUE TO IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KMCK...AND
BETTER CONDITIONS IN AREAS SURROUND KMCK. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT BEST CHANCES FOR FOG/STRATUS (IFR
CONDITIONS OR LOWER) WILL BE AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE AS
ADVERTISED POSITION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1001 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL BRING A WAVE OF RAIN TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FINGER
LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK...AND
ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...THERE WILL ALSO BE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AFTER THE
SYSTEM EXITS LATE TONIGHT...WELCOME DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINS BY 1-2 HOURS AS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
TIMING WITH THE RAP...WRF_NMM AND WRF_ARW ALSO PRETTY CLOSE. THE
NAM12 BEGINS SLOW BUT CATCHES UP AND BRINGS A BATCH OF PRECIP
ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA BY 16-20Z. STILL APPEARS HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLS BTWN 18Z AND 23Z. BASIN AVE QPF AMNTS STILL LOOK TO BE 1-2
INCHES IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES AS ADVERTISED BUT CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOW MUCH NARROWER STRIPES OF HEAVIER RAIN AS ONE
WUD EXPECT. A STRIPE OF 3-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A SMALLER
AREA AND HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. IT STILL APPEARS BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACRS THE TWIN-TIER REGION BUT FARTHER S THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH HEAVY RAINS TOO AS PWATS ARE
OVER 2 INCHES!! THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE VIS SATELLITE IN NE PA AND
MODELS SHOW CAPE BUILDING UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING IN NE PA. WITH
THE SFC LOW TRACK JUST N OF NE PA...THIS AREA WILL SEE VERY HIGH
LL WIND SHEAR. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED TO RANGE AROUND 25
KNOTS...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY AT KAVP ON THE 6Z NAM AT 242 M2/S2
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED CAPES REACHING CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. THE 6Z
NAM JOGGED THE SFC LOW TO THE N AND THAT IS WHY KAVP/S SOUNDING
LOOKS SO IMPRESSIVE. BUT THIS SIGNALS THAT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ARE
VERY CLOSE TO A SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER THREAT LATER TODAY. THIS
CUD BE A MINI-SUPERCELL TORNADO DAY AND WE CONCUR WITH THE
ENHANCED RISK JUST TO OUR SRN BRDR COUNTIES FROM SPC. PREVIOUS
DSCN IS BELOW.
430 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN CATSKILLS IN NY AND ALL
OF NORTHEAST PA...AND ALSO THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTHEAST PA.
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO
DAWN...BUT ONLY WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO SHOW FOR
IT IN THE POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY...VIRGA ELSEWHERE DUE TO
DRY AIR IN THE 6-14 KFT AGL LAYER. THAT WAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT AND
LEAVE US TEMPORARILY QUIET THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...STRONGER WAVE WILL ZIP THROUGH THE
AREA AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ROUGHLY ALONG THE NY-PA
BORDER BEFORE SHUNTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOT GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...MOST IMPORTANTLY PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES TO ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
40-50 KTS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TRANSPORTING THIS
MOISTURE...MEANWHILE ALOFT WE GET FORCED ASCENT VIA RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET AT 250-300MB. ADD WELL MARKED
SURFACE BOUNDARY-SURFACE LOW...AND ALREADY MOIST SOILS DUE TO
REPEATED RAINS OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS...AND INGREDIENTS ARE COMING
TOGETHER. FREEZING LEVEL IS ACTUALLY EXCEEDING 15 KFT AGL...WHICH
WILL YIELD VERY EFFICIENT RAIN. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN /THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IT WOULD TAKE IN
AN HOUR TO START CAUSING FLOOD PROBLEMS/...IS ONLY 0.8 TO 1.4
INCHES. THIS SYSTEM ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF FLASH FLOODING
INCLUDING CURRENT FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF IL-IN- KY.
BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS...IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WE HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN TIER-
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES-WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY...AND ALL OF
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
NORTH MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE SYSTEM TRACK
CHANGES JUST SLIGHTLY...IN WHICH CASE THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE ALSO HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR AT LEAST
NORTHEAST PA. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH CAPE WE CAN MANAGE
CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST
SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY WHICH
WOULD PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE. PROBLEMATIC SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LESS
OF A CHALLENGE TO ATTAIN...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR.
RUNNING THE NUMBERS THROUGH OUR LOCAL ANALOG TOOL BRINGS UP CASES
WITH FLASH FLOODING BUT ALSO SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND IN ONCE
CASE EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
0-1KM SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES. SPC INCLUDES ALMOST ALL OF NEPA
IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...WITH MARGINAL RISK REACHING JUST PAST
PA/NY BORDER. HAIL WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE OF WARM
CLOUD DEPTH...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH THERE WILL BE RAIN NORTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS
/TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOW 70S/ TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO HAVE RAIN WILL LINGER A WAYS INTO THE
EVENING...A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BECAUSE UPPER
JET SUPPORT LASTING INTO THE NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT
THOUGH...LEAVING AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BRINGING WELCOME DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE FRIDAY-SATURDAY. HIGHS UPPER 70S-LOW 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
IN MID 50S TO NEAR 60...WILL FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE.
HOWEVER...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RAINFALL...WILL MAKE VALLEY FOG FORMATION
LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY TO A
SLIGHT LESSER DEGREE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOPE DOWN TOWARD AN
ATLANTIC TROF THIS PERIOD, WITH WEAK WAVES RIDING DOWN THE RIDGE
INTO NY AND PA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST EACH PERIOD.
THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN UL CLOSED LOW TO BREAK OFF FROM THE FLOW AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK TROF DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
3 PM UPDATE...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CARVING
OUT OF YET ANOTHER BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...AND
POSSIBLY A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES BY MON-TUES.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE BIG THREE (GFS/ECMWF/GGEM)...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE...UNSETTLED
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY SHOULD ESCAPE RAIN
FREE UNTIL TOWARD EVENING WHEN SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT IN ON A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AFTER THAT...AT LEAST THE
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIRAL DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS, LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO MVFR TERRITORY. BRIEF IFR IS
EXPECTED, BUT THE DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT TO JUSTIFY A TEMPO
GROUP.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 19Z THURSDAY AND
00Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK...
THU AFTRN THROUGH EARLY FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA THU...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS-FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
MID MORNING FRI THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR PAZ040-048-072.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ038-039-043-044-047.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ022>025-044-045-055-056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/DJP/JAB
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
707 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT WILL BUILD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN DISSIPATE. A BETTER FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIFTED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY
THE BERMUDA HIGH NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS
LIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE/THIN AS THE SUN RISES FURTHER ABOVE THE HORIZON
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION LAST
NIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT STRAY FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MAY JUST BE A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE.
IT WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING
THE HEAT INDEX UP TO 100 TO 104 DEGREES MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW INLAND SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 105 DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT GEOGRAPHIC AREA WILL HIT 105 DEGREES FOR TWO HOURS OR
MORE AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP LOWER AS DRY AIR
ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE AS STRONG HEATING ENSUES. THUS...DO NOT
PLAN ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THE SEABREEZE
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE LOWER 90S. TEMPS
THIS EVE WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS NOT DROPPING TO 80 DEGREES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...80 DEGREES
OR SO AT THE BEACHES.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ITS POSITION ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AS HEAT RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS FURTHER. TEMPS AT
850 MB WILL REACH AROUND 21 DEG C TODAY...ABOUT A DEGREE HIGHER THAN
ON WED. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD AGAIN BE A PROMINENT FEATURE AS
WILL THE SEABREEZE. THESE STRENGTHENING BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SW OR WSW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AT THE
BEACHES.
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 2000 J/KG DURING THE TIME
OF PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM THE
CONVECTION WHICH DISSIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LAST
NIGHT...IT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE A STRETCH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WORKING AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WARM AIR ALOFT...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN
AND PARTICULARLY IN THE MID LEVELS...AND A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 25 KFT. THUS...AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AGAIN ONE OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND MAINLY DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
HANGS ON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 INLAND AND THE UPPER 90S
ALONG THE COAST. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN DURING MAX
HEATING WILL PROBABLY KEEP AN OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY FROM BEING
ISSUED. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE A SMATTERING OF 105 VALUES BUT THE
LONGEVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED.
A SLOW DECREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES COMMENCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY CRAWLS SLOWLY SOUTH. THE EFFECTS
WILL BE GRADUAL BUT OVERALL THIS SHOULD SHAVE 3-4 DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S. THERE IS SOME
SIGNALS OF CONVECTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ON PRIMARILY THE NORTHEAST
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A RETREATING MID LEVEL RIDGE MAKES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK
TO THE EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSING IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SURFACE FEATURES ARE WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF JULY. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND A SERIES OF FADING FRONTS
ESPECIALLY LATE MAKING A FUTILE PUSH INTO BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL KEEP THE DAYS BEYOND MONDAY FAIRLY
UNSETTLED. WE HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY AND MORESO AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MAINLY SCT MID/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING THIS
MORNING...DENSEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS ARE SW-W 5 TO 10
KT.
VFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SW-
W...EXCEPT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...BUT WITH
W WINDS ALOFT THE BOUNDARYS INLAND PROGRESS WILL BE IMPEDED. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE IN
COASTAL TAFS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND...LAND/SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES COULD PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
FROM THE SSW.
ONLY ISOLATED AIRMASS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY THUS WILL
OMIT MENTION FROM TAFS. PROBABLY THE BEST AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE NW OF KCRE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IT COULD MOVE TOWARDS KCRE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE ITS AN
OVERALL HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE WINDS
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SCT LO/MID CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
JETTING WILL AGAIN HELP TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS ELEVATED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT...15 TO 20 KT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE SW. SEAS
WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT. AN 8 TO 10 SECOND SE GROUND SWELL
WILL PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10- 15 KNOTS...HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. A WEAK
BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE WINDS TO WEST AND EVEN NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY IS SO WEAK HOWEVER THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE MOST PART.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE...ATTEMPTING TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP A
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THESE
FEATURES HAVE FADED AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL TO DRIVE SEAS BEYOND THE TOKEN VALUES DRIVEN BY
THE WINDS...2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
442 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW LIES TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW. THROUGH TODAY, THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS TREK, THE INFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. THIS WILL
LEAVE TODAY AS THE LAST BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
MOISTURE AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE
MAIN CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION, STORMS TODAY ARE
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CONCENTRATING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE CASCADES OF OREGON, AND SOME ARE SUGGESTING A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ORBITING THE LOW TO THE SOUTH, FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES AND
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES, AND
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE, AND THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
THE NAM AND GFS BRING THE WAVE THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR BRINGS IT IN SLIGHTLY
EARLIER. THE LATER SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY, GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME. THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO
DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE EARLIER,
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING, AND THEREFORE LIMIT
CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS THE LESSER POSSIBILITY, BUT STILL A
POSSIBILITY. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER, AND THIS
COULD TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, SHOULD
ANY AREAS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY, A SECOND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG IN ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME RESIDUAL
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, AND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO
NEAR NOTHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR DOWNWARD SWING AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER KEEPS THE INCOMING
SUNLIGHT AT BAY. AS AN EXAMPLE, WEDNESDAY WAS THE FIRST IN FIFTEEN
DAYS THAT THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT GET ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN MEDFORD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE...FOR INLAND AREAS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FROM 21Z-04Z. STRONG GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS.
ALONG THE COAST...A MIX OF MFR/IFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED MVFR OR IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY, EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE
COAST. THEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND VARIABLE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR AND LIFT TODAY BUT THEN EXPECT LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DOMINATE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL BE LOW TO
MODERATE IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET DUE TO
MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONGER PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED RETURN TO THE
COAST WITH INCREASED NORTH WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS AROUND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH. /CC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 240 AM PDT, THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015... LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MONTERREY BAY, CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
IT DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST TODAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CURRY COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO INCREASED
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN STORM CORES.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO SOME
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
BPN/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
956 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ALL OF MIDDLE TN IS DRY THIS MORNING WITH E-W BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH IN CENTRAL KY. HRRR KEEPS THE CWA MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTH. POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS WELL. HOURLY GRIDS ARE LOOKING
GOOD WITH THE WARM UP THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
REAGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/
12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE CKV
VICINITY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT....POSSIBLY EVEN BNA. OUTSIDE
OF A BRIEF STORM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 71 91 71 / 20 20 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 90 70 91 70 / 30 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 89 67 84 66 / 10 20 20 20
COLUMBIA 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 94 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 91 71 92 70 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
644 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Currently seeing MVFR stratus across the southern terminals
and this should persist through the mid morning hours before
scattering out to VFR. South winds will increase 15 to 20 kt
today, diminishing by sunset. Stratus is expected to develop
across towards daybreak Friday, with MVFR ceilings returning
to the southern terminals after 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The subtropical ridge over the southeast states will begin
to build west into Texas the next 24 hours, and will be the
main weather feature affecting our weather through tonight.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
east-southeast across the Texas Panhandle and far northwest Texas
early this morning. This activity will track east along the Red
River Valley through the morning hours, with the majority of the
precipitation remaining north of the area. The HRRR however, does
generate some QPF across Haskell and Throckmorton counties this
morning. Cannot rule this out so have added slight POPs to the
forecast for both counties this morning. Otherwise, morning cloud
cover will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon, with
highs around 90 degrees. We`ll see some stratus redevelop late
tonight across southern sections, with overnight lows around 70
degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
On Friday, an upper level ridge across the Southeast United States
will continue to build west toward West Central Texas. In the
meantime, daytime heating should allow for the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Texas. The 00z NAM
is the most aggressive with this scenario, which drifts the
convection east, toward our western counties. Whether any of this
convection makes it into our western counties will be dependent on
the strength of the developing ridge, but for now the forecast was
kept dry. Highs on Friday will be below seasonal normals,
generally in the lower 90s.
A much quieter weather pattern is expected this weekend through much
of next week as an upper level ridge dominates the weather.
Temperatures will slowly creep up each day, although plentiful soil
moisture should help to keep temperatures a few degrees below MOS
guidance. High temperatures for the first part of next week will
generally be in the mid to upper 90s, although a few locations may
reach the century mark. No rain is forecast through the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 90 70 91 71 91 / 5 0 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 70 92 71 92 / 5 5 5 5 0
Junction 91 70 90 70 90 / 5 0 5 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1003 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW. 925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 18-19C TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THAN THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS...THOUGH STILL LIKELY FALLING A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOWER LYING AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
DRY WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND SURFACE LOW AS
IT TRACKS FROM CENTRAL IL TO THE IN/OH/MI BORDER AREA AROUND
12Z...AND PA/NY BY 00Z FRI. 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THAT SWEEPS ACROSS U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...MOVING EAST OF THE STATE BY 18Z.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE NOTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE...BUT THIS LAYER
NEVER FULLY SATURATES ON THE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE ALSO SUPPORTS NO
MORE THAN SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CUMULUS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ON NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...THEN TEMPS STEADY OUT AS WINDS TURN NW TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MID-UPPER 70S...WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH AND ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE FAR EAST.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
500 MB RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER MN/IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER
THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI AND SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE LOWER 80S BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AS LONG AS THE CLOUDS
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH IOWA WILL
COMBINE WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850MB FRONTOGENESIS TO
BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL COOLING
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAPE OVER THE AREA. THE
LLJ SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE VEERING AWAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN MCS-LIKE
FEATURE DEVELOPING IN THE IA/WI/IL AREA. SPC HAS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE THE TIME HANDLING THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES... IT SEEMS THEY ARE
HEADING TOWARD AGREEMENT... AT LEAST FOR THE SATURDAY-SAT NT TIME
FRAME.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRYING OUT IN THE MORNING. THEN ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STATIONED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WI
AREA SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE 00Z ECWMF IS MAINTAINING A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS BACK TO ITS NORTHERLY SOLUTION. THUS... LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS
STILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
WI... BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHICH
SIDE OF THE FRONT THEY ARE ON. THE HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHOWS
NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK... SO EXPECT THIS
NORTHWESTERLY... ACTIVE AND UNCERTAIN FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN WI.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE FAR SE TO LIFT BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 03Z SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE...BUT THIS LAYER NEVER FULLY
SATURATES ON THE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE ALSO SUPPORTS NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN VFR LEVEL CUMULUS. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS
OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY. NAM GUIDANCE ALONE IN SHOWING ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH FOG
AT TAF SITES...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
801 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
THE DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN CHEYENNE
AND THE SUMMIT HAS LIFTED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THERE MAY BE A FEW
POCKETS OF FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY
ERODE. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM MAIN CONCERN IS WITH DENSE FOG THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ALONG I-80 AND I-25 IN
THESE AREAS WILL GO UP AND DOWN BETWEEN 1/8TH OF A MILE TO 1 MILE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GO A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATE MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK/LIFT THE AREAS OF FOG.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
16Z.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN A BIT...AROUND 0.80
INCHES MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER SE
WYOMING TODAY WHERE MORE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
MORE STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND MUCAPES AROUND 1100 J/KG
AROUND CHEYENNE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING DO SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MAYBE JUST EAST...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
VIRTUALLY NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED YESTERDAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIES DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. TODAY
WE STILL SEE A CAP AROUND 700 MB OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT
THAT CAP IS WEAKER. TODAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND A SMALL
POTENTIAL TO BREAK THE CAP SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST MOVERS TODAY GIVEN ONLY
10-15 KT OF STORM MOTION...SO AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF
POTENTIAL ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES WHERE STRONGER STORMS FORM
UP...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
STORMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. ANY LINGERING STORMS INTO
THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAST AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW POPS
GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY...ONE THING THAT CATCHES THE EYE IS MODELS PEGGING THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MIDLVEL
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY FAT CAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
TOMORROW...BUT SOME WEAK ROTATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW WITH INCREASED HAIL POTENTIAL FOR
OUR EASTERN-MOST ZONES. LATER FORECASTS CAN BETTER DEFINE ANY
SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH LOWER THREAT EAST
TO THE LARAMIE RANGE OF WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
NICE...DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GETS
DRAWN NORTH INTO MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WYOMING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +12
TO +14C. COULD BE WINDY OUT WEST AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 40KTS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TUESDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH OUT OF COLORADO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCYS. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE WITH LATEST HRRR FINALLY
BREAKING OUT KSNY BY 16-17Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AFTER STRATUS BREAKS UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
ABOVE NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NOTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO
BECOME DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MONSOONAL PATTERN OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES COMES BACK BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
513 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM MAIN CONCERN IS WITH DENSE FOG THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ALONG I-80 AND I-25 IN
THESE AREAS WILL GO UP AND DOWN BETWEEN 1/8TH OF A MILE TO 1 MILE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GO A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATE MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK/LIFT THE AREAS OF FOG.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
16Z.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN A BIT...AROUND 0.80
INCHES MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER SE
WYOMING TODAY WHERE MORE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
MORE STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND MUCAPES AROUND 1100 J/KG
AROUND CHEYENNE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING DO SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MAYBE JUST EAST...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
VIRTUALLY NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED YESTERDAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIES DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. TODAY
WE STILL SEE A CAP AROUND 700 MB OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT
THAT CAP IS WEAKER. TODAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND A SMALL
POTENTIAL TO BREAK THE CAP SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST MOVERS TODAY GIVEN ONLY
10-15 KT OF STORM MOTION...SO AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF
POTENTIAL ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES WHERE STRONGER STORMS FORM
UP...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
STORMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. ANY LINGERING STORMS INTO
THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAST AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW POPS
GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY...ONE THING THAT CATCHES THE EYE IS MODELS PEGGING THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MIDLVEL
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY FAT CAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
TOMORROW...BUT SOME WEAK ROTATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW WITH INCREASED HAIL POTENTIAL FOR
OUR EASTERN-MOST ZONES. LATER FORECASTS CAN BETTER DEFINE ANY
SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH LOWER THREAT EAST
TO THE LARAMIE RANGE OF WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
NICE...DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GETS
DRAWN NORTH INTO MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WYOMING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +12
TO +14C. COULD BE WINDY OUT WEST AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 40KTS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TUESDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH OUT OF COLORADO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCYS. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE WITH LATEST HRRR FINALLY
BREAKING OUT KSNY BY 16-17Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AFTER STRATUS BREAKS UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
ABOVE NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NOTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO
BECOME DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MONSOONAL PATTERN OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES COMES BACK BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. VISIBLE STLT SHOWING SUFFICIENT CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. WL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST MESOETA
SHOWS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS FM ROUGHLY 09Z-
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING. NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD CAPES OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WITH VALUES OF 1400 TO 2200 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. DECENT
PW VALUES AS WELL...0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES. BUT NAM12 QG IN THE MID
LEVELS SHOWS DECENT DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WHICH MAY KEEP
THE AMS CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHICH WL WIN OUT BUT IT
DOES LOOK SUFFICIENT ENUF TO CAP THINGS. FOR NOW WL KEEP SCT
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS
NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...BUT EVERYTHING ELSE WOULD SUGGEST QUITE LIMITED
CONVECTION. STICKING WITH KEEPING ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL EVENTUALLY
BE SOME WEAK WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...AT LEAST BRINGING A
LITTLE LIFT TO HELP MARGINAL CONVECTION AND BRING SOME COOLING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS US NEAR 90 DURING THE WEEKEND THEN DROPPING
INTO THE 80S WITH SEASONAL POPS BY MID WEEK...AND THAT LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z. IF A THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER THE
AIRPORTS THEN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE
PASSING STORMS. MAY NEED TO KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 09Z...POTENTIAL FOR LOW STATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DOES
EXIST...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRPORT. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND LESS TSTM COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MID SHIFT DID AN
EXCELLENT JOB DESCRIBING THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION AND THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS THINKING. IMPRESSIVE LLJ AT ILN OF 40 TO 50
KTS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 500MB
TEMPS ARE WARM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, THEY
WILL BE COOLING AS WILL 700MB TEMPS (10C POOL OVER US THIS
MORNING). WE ARE IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250MB/300MB JET. OUR BIGGEST WHAT IF REMAINS TIMING AS THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING. THE CAVEAT AS
MENTIONED IF A COLD POOL FORMS, THE TENDENCY IS FOR THE EVENT TO
OCCUR FASTER AND THUS INCREASE OUR SEVERE CHANCES. RIGHT NOW THE
SPC ENHANCED OUTLOOK REGION DOES LOOK VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ALL OF
THE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY PARAMETERS.
WE ARE HEDGING A LITTLE BIT FASTER BASED ON MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS BRINGING MEASURABLE TO PHL BY 00Z. HAVE NOTICED A COUPLE
OF THE LATEST HRRR AND COSPA RUNS ARE SLOWING TSTMS DOWN JUST A
TAD.
WITH CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING, WE ARE HOLDING ON TO PREDICTED MAX
TEMPS AND THE GAP BETWEEN PREDICTED AND OBSERVED TEMPS (GENERALLY
LOWER) IS CLOSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE NY-PA BORDER. THE GREATEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT SPREADS INTO THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHEN UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND DPVA FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES.
THE UPSTREAM MCS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA IN THE
22Z-03Z PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEEPER INTO THE
WARM SECTOR TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST (BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT). POPS THIS
EVENING ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ AS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED BY PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS FROM
WET DOWNBURSTS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT WOULD
ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL A BIT NORTHWEST OF PHILA. HODOGRAPHS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES UNTIL THE EVENING,
WHEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HELPS ENHANCES ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY
CONSIDERABLY.
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL CERTAINLY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS: MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD SHOW SATURATION
IN A DEEP 15 KFT DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, PWATS 2-2.25 INCHES, AND A
FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (I.E., ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE FOR DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT). ASIDE FROM THE 00Z NAM, WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER,
GUIDANCE HAS PLACED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR THE FRONT TO BE
NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR OUR AREA, EXPECT THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN TO
BE RATHER SHORT AS THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AT A STEADY
PACE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT A BIT BUT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVG AWAY FROM THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDD PD AND HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE W.
THEREFORE, A DRY FRI IS IN STORE AND A NICE WEEKEND AS WELL LOOKS
TO BE IN THE CARDS, OR AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU SAT AND INTO SUN. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND CMC ARE DRY THRU 13/00Z MON. THE GFS HAS SOME VERY LOW POPS
(DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA) N AND W. SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY SOME VERY
LOW POPS, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF IT WAS COMPLETELY DRY.
AFTER 00Z MON, BOTH THE CMC AND ECMWF BRING IN PRECIP WITH A LOW
FROM THE W AND A WMFNT. THE GFS IS DRY THROUGH 13/12Z, BUT BRINGS
IN SOME PRECIP AFTER 13/12Z. THE EC IS QUITE WET ON MON. THE CMC
IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND THE GFS IS DRY. THEN BY TUE, THE GFS IS
THE WETTEST MDL,. WITH ANOTHER LOW AND AN APPROACHING CDFNT, WHILE
THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC IS THE COMPROMISE SOLN. SO, WHAT CAN
WE DEDUCE FROM THIS? AT LEAST PART OF MON IS LIKELY TO BE WET AND
PSBLY MORE. TUE IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND WED AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON WED. THE EC HINTS AT SOME BUT IS DRIER.
BUT BOTH DAYS COULD STILL BE UNSETTLED.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT OR A BIT ABV NRML THRU THE PD, BUT DEWPTS SHUD
BE COMFORTABLE UNTIL PSBLY TWD THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAF MAINTAINS A HIGH TSRA IMPACT ACROSS OUR TERMINAL AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT FOR NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS WITH
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT FOR ANY DELMARVA AIRPORTS SOUTH OF
KILG.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...TERMINALS START VFR WITH WINDS SLOWING
BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTINESS INCREASING, GETTING
CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS.
WE CONTINUE A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG TSRAS AFFECTING ALL OF
OUR TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE QUITE LIKELY WITH IFR
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
LIKELY. HIGHEST SVR CHANCE KRDG AND KABE. NOT SURE ABOUT A
DOUBLE BARREL (LESSER SECOND) SHOT AND WE HAVE SHOWERS FOR NOW TO
COVER THE CHANCE.
LATER THIS EVENING, THE CFP IS PREDICTED WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
VFR.
OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH WIND WE BELIEVE TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR, OR AT THE MOST A SCATTERED VFR
DECK LINGERING.
FRIDAY...VFR NO CIG EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THERE MIGHT BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTINESS ONCE BETTER
MIXING OCCURS DURING THE MORNING. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY AT
AIRPORTS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, SO NOT INCLUDED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN...VFR. W TO NW WIND UNDER 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY W ON SUN.
SUN NIGHT - MON...MOSTLY VFR. SOME AFTN SHRA/TSRA PSBL. LOW TO
MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. THE MAIN
WX-CONCERN ON THE WATERS TODAY WILL BE TSTMS. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH MON...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PD.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE AS LOW PRES ON FRI MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WIND
GUSTS WILL GENLY BE 15 TO 20 KT ON FRI, THEN 10-15 KT THRU SUN,
BEFORE APPROACHING 20 KT AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. DIRECTIONS WILL
BE OUT OF THE N THRU SAT NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SW TO W SAT
NIGHT THU MON.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MID SHIFT DID AN
EXCELLENT JOB DESCRIBING THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION AND THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS THINKING. IMPRESSIVE LLJ AT ILN OF 40 TO 50
KTS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 500MB
TEMPS ARE WARM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, THEY
WILL BE COOLING AS WILL 700MB TEMPS (10C POOL OVER US THIS
MORNING). WE ARE IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250MB/300MB JET. OUR BIGGEST WHAT IF REMAINS TIMING AS THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING. THE CAVEAT AS
MENTIONED IF A COLD POOL FORMS, THE TENDENCY IS FOR THE EVENT TO
OCCUR FASTER AND THUS INCREASE OUR SEVERE CHANCES. RIGHT NOW THE
SPC ENHANCED OUTLOOK REGION DOES LOOK VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ALL OF
THE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY PARAMETERS.
WE ARE HEDGING A LITTLE BIT FASTER BASED ON MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
MODELS BRINGING MEASURABLE TO PHL BY 00Z. HAVE NOTICED A COUPLE
OF THE LATEST HRRR AND COSPA RUNS ARE SLOWING TSTMS DOWN JUST A
TAD.
WITH CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING, WE ARE HOLDING ON TO PREDICTED MAX
TEMPS AND THE GAP BETWEEN PREDICTED AND OBSERVED TEMPS (GENERALLY
LOWER) IS CLOSING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE NY-PA BORDER. THE GREATEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT SPREADS INTO THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHEN UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND DPVA FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES.
THE UPSTREAM MCS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA IN THE
22Z-03Z PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEEPER INTO THE
WARM SECTOR TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST (BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT). POPS THIS
EVENING ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ AS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED BY PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS FROM
WET DOWNBURSTS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT WOULD
ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL A BIT NORTHWEST OF PHILA. HODOGRAPHS
DO NOT LOOK PARTICULAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES UNTIL THE EVENING,
WHEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HELPS ENHANCES ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY
CONSIDERABLY.
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL CERTAINLY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS: MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD SHOW SATURATION
IN A DEEP 15 KFT DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, PWATS 2-2.25 INCHES, AND A
FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (I.E., ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE FOR DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT). ASIDE FROM THE 00Z NAM, WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER,
GUIDANCE HAS PLACED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR THE FRONT TO BE
NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR OUR AREA, EXPECT THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN TO
BE RATHER SHORT AS THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AT A STEADY
PACE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT A BIT BUT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVG AWAY FROM THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDD PD AND HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE W.
THEREFORE, A DRY FRI IS IN STORE AND A NICE WEEKEND AS WELL LOOKS
TO BE IN THE CARDS, OR AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU SAT AND INTO SUN. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND CMC ARE DRY THRU 13/00Z MON. THE GFS HAS SOME VERY LOW POPS
(DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA) N AND W. SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY SOME VERY
LOW POPS, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF IT WAS COMPLETELY DRY.
AFTER 00Z MON, BOTH THE CMC AND ECMWF BRING IN PRECIP WITH A LOW
FROM THE W AND A WMFNT. THE GFS IS DRY THROUGH 13/12Z, BUT BRINGS
IN SOME PRECIP AFTER 13/12Z. THE EC IS QUITE WET ON MON. THE CMC
IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND THE GFS IS DRY. THEN BY TUE, THE GFS IS
THE WETTEST MDL,. WITH ANOTHER LOW AND AN APPROACHING CDFNT, WHILE
THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC IS THE COMPROMISE SOLN. SO, WHAT CAN
WE DEDUCE FROM THIS? AT LEAST PART OF MON IS LIKELY TO BE WET AND
PSBLY MORE. TUE IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND WED AS WELL. THE GFS HAS
MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON WED. THE EC HINTS AT SOME BUT IS DRIER.
BUT BOTH DAYS COULD STILL BE UNSETTLED.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT OR A BIT ABV NRML THRU THE PD, BUT DEWPTS SHUD
BE COMFORTABLE UNTIL PSBLY TWD THE END OF THE EXTENDD PD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EXPECT VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND A
LIGHT WIND. ADDED A 2-HR TSRA TEMPO GROUP IN THE 00Z TAFS FOR EACH
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHEN THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF
STORMS TODAY THAN USUAL. WE WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT
THE IMPACT FROM VSBYS AND WINDS ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO OBTAIN MORE
CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING, BEFORE A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH SUN...VFR. W TO NW WIND UNDER 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY W ON SUN.
SUN NIGHT - MON...MOSTLY VFR. SOME AFTN SHRA/TSRA PSBL. LOW TO
MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. THE MAIN
WX-CONCERN ON THE WATERS TODAY WILL BE TSTMS. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH MON...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PD.
SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE AS LOW PRES ON FRI MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WIND
GUSTS WILL GENLY BE 15 TO 20 KT ON FRI, THEN 10-15 KT THRU SUN,
BEFORE APPROACHING 20 KT AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. DIRECTIONS WILL
BE OUT OF THE N THRU SAT NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SW TO W SAT
NIGHT THU MON.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD STARTING TO ERODE A BIT... WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL SEEING
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM ABOUT PEORIA-LINCOLN EASTWARD IN THE
LOWER CLOUDS...BUT THE HEIGHT OF THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HRRR TRYING
TO SHOW THE CLOUDS CONTRACTING FROM ALL SIDES...WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW THE HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A BIT AND CONCENTRATED THE LOWER READINGS
ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1010MB LOW JUST NORTH OF KDNV...WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. AS THE LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...FRONT WILL SETTLE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...TODAY WILL BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DESPITE THE
DRYING TREND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SO PROSPECTS FOR CLEARING ARE BLEAK. DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
WITH FRONT GETTING PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOUTHWARD AS WELL
TONIGHT. BOTH GFS AND NAM NOW SHOW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORMING
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING E/SE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO FEATURE ONLY LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO
MATTOON LINE TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...HOWEVER IF 12Z MODELS SHIFT IT FURTHER NORTHWARD A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. AFTER
MORNING STORM COMPLEX TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
I-74 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...HOWEVER 00Z JULY 9 GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH WEAKER WITH THE
RIDGE. THIS MEANS THE ONCE DRY FORECAST WILL NOW BE REPLACED BY A
MORE UNSETTLED SCENARIO WHERE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT MCS LOOKS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING OVER
IOWA...THEN TRACK E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS NORTH
OF THE PEORIA AREA AT THAT TIME...TAPERING DOWN TO DRY CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF I-70. AFTER THAT...RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS ONCE
THOUGHT. END RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HUMID WEATHER
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
AREA OF IFR CEILINGS CONTRACTING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WERE
CENTERED ALONG THE KSPI-KCMI CORRIDOR AT 17Z. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND VFR BY AROUND
23Z...ALTHOUGH AM A BIT MORE SKEPTICAL FOR KCMI AND KEPT THEM MVFR
INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS ALREADY IMPROVING TO VFR AT KPIA AND
SHOULD FOLLOW SOON AT KBMI.
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT FOR POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
INCOMING CONVECTION. AM MOST WORRIED ABOUT KBMI...WHICH HAD OVER 4
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE SOME LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO GO ALONG WITH THE EXCESSIVELY WET
SOIL. WENT WITH 1SM VISIBILITY LATE NIGHT THERE...BUT WITH AROUND
4SM ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING TAF SITES ARE ALL CLOSE TO
HEAVY RAIN TRACKS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AS FOR
THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POST-12Z
TIME FRAME AS BEING MOST LIKELY FOR SHOWERS. DID NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER FOR NOW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
322 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
1930Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADAS. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH AZ WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS OK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT
WAS OBSERVED FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO.
THE NAM AND RAP HAVE TRENDED TO KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE FROM THIS
MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS KEPT THE PRECIP
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH. EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING, THINK THE SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST TAKING THE FORCING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS EVENING. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WE CLEAR OUT, TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE LOW LYING
AREAS. FOR FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM AZ MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
AND HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM
DEVELOP SOME REASONABLE INSTABILITY, SO THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POP UP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK SO AM NOT
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT MAY BE. ALSO MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST
SKILL IN HANDLING THESE WEAK WAVES KICKING OUT, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE HEAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CO ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA,
DEEPENING THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ALL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEST TO
EAST WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS AND NE BORDER. THE INCREASING LLJ
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WERE CENTERED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, HIGHEST NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
25 KTS. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS STRONG MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB ADVECTS TEMPS TO THE UPPER 20S C INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS. AT THIS TIME, HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS
INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH LOWER 90S FURTHER EAST. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S, BELIEVE
HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR
SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY VARY BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON HOW WELL WE
CAN MIX OUT THE LOW 70 DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX
HEAT INDICES FROM 103 TO 106 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BOARDER. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN IN WESTERN KANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO
BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 90S UP
TO 101 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES THROUGHOUT THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 100 DEGREES, POSSIBLY UP TO 105 IN SOME AREAS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE OK STATE LINE PER THE 17Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING THE BETTER PVA
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS, THINK CHANCES THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS IS DECREASING AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. NAM AND GFS PROGS SHOW SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT SINCE THE RAP WANTS TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY SEEM PLAUSIBLE, ALTHOUGH I AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THE
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MET MOS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN/HELLER
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1149 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE CLOSED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US...AND DIFFLUENT/SW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES PLAINS...ONE OVER WYOMING...THE OTHER OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS IN NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA...HOWEVER BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE WELL SOUTH. GOOD MOISTURE AND LIMITED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MUCH
DRIER THAN GUIDANCE 12HR AGO. AREA OBS/SATELLITE SHOW LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS...AND WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE IN PLACE I DECIDED TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE (PWATS/TD). AS THE DAY GOES ON CAPE
VALUES INCREASE...AND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG KS/CO BORDER MAY ACT AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF MODEL
CONTINUITY/CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE FEATURES.
I KEPT 20-40 POPS IN PLACE BASED ON MODEL PRECIP SIGNALS/CURRENT
CONSENSUS TIMING FRIDAY EVENING. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RETROGRADING/STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY TODAY AS EVEN WITH LESS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS. I COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEPENDING ON CLEARING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER...WITH THE DECREE OF WAA ADVERTISED BY EVEN
CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 90F. IN
FACT...MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SHOWING RIDGE FURTHER EAST/MORE
AMPLIFIED MAY SUPPORT MID-UPPER 90S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100F. SOME GUIDANCES KEEPS SURFACE TROUGH A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY "COOLER"...HOWEVER
EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER ACROSS A LOT OF THE AREA. STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
DUE TO RIDGE. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING CAP WEAKENING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. IM NOT REALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS...BUT DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WEST AND ELONGATE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY... RAISING POPS INTO
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. CAPE AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE MODEST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE A RISK FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND RAISE POPS ONCE MORE ACROSS THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK UP. LATER THIS EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES WITH SOME POSSIBLE
MVFR NEAR STORMS. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDTIONS AT KMCK AND KGLD FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OUT WEST AT THIS HOUR...WHILE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S EVEN WITH PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER. WARM FRONT HAS SETTLED TO OUR SOUTH IN OKLAHOMA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE SOME HAZE OR
FOG IN LOW SPOTS OR ALONG BODIES OF WATER BY MORNING BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVER.
FOR TODAY...SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO LIFT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS...SO MORE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WITH
CONVECTION. SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY THE NOON HOUR
BUT THINK POINTS NORTHEAST WILL NOT SEE MUCH UNTIL THIS EVENING AND
HAVE SPREAD POPS SW TO NE ACCORDINGLY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A SECONDARY WAVE INCREASES THE 850 FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR TEMPERATURES...AS FRONT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME SITES REACH THE 80 MARK TODAY
BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S OVERNIGHT IN CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
BY FRIDAY MORNING, A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, WITH ONE SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KS AND TRACK OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. IF ANYTHING, MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACKING OF THIS WAVE BEING MORE OVER THE
CWA RATHER THAN HOVERING NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER AS SOME PREVIOUS RUNS
WERE SUGGESTING. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
TIMING AND TRACKING OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN A
SLOWER NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FASTEST SOLUTION, BUT IN GENERAL THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND PROGRESS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING AND LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH KEEPING PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS INTO
SATURDAY WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY UPWARDS OF 20-25KTS AND LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO LOOK MORE MOIST ADIABATIC.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S., BROADLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN RIDGE AXIS, CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE INCONSISTENT AMONGST THEMSELVES AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACKING OF THESE WAVES, SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
WHEN AND WHERE THESE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME, HAVE A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. DURING
THIS TIME, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA,
KEEPING PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEADY WARM-AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE CWA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES SOARING INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., RESULTING IN MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. A FEW MORE EMBEDDED WAVES MAY TRACK OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THIS SHIFT IN THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
SHOWERS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE OK STATE LINE PER THE 17Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPING THE BETTER PVA
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS, THINK CHANCES THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS IS DECREASING AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. NAM AND GFS PROGS SHOW SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH RH IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT SINCE THE RAP WANTS TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY SEEM PLAUSIBLE, ALTHOUGH I AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THE
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MET MOS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR RETURNS.
NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER LINE OF
STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THIS
CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS TO EXTRAPOLATE
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KY SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF SME AND LOZ...WHILE
STORMS AFFECTING SJS WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY. GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING EVEN AFTER VISIBILITY IMPROVES TO 7
OR GREATER MILES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
251 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OCCURRING WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OF STORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE HRRR SUPPORTS A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WHILE THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WITH THE THREAT FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE
STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KY SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF SME AND LOZ...WHILE
STORMS AFFECTING SJS WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY. GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING EVEN AFTER VISIBILITY IMPROVES TO 7
OR GREATER MILES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SWING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS WILL SEE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY
FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE
PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY END THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OREGON, AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH OF THESE SAME
AREAS DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP
VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS GOING ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WALLOWA
COUNTY. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACNW SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE
FLOW OVER THE AREA SOUTHWESTERLY. THUS VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. 90
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONSENSUS IN
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR
127W SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING EAST, THUS GIVING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE INTO FORECAST
AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION
RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING SINKING MOTION EAST OF THE CASCADES
THUS YIELDING DRY ND STABLE CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM IN
WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE IN A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH PRODUCES WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES RESULTING IN SINKING AIR WHICH RESULTS IN DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SCT-BKN 110-150 KRDM
AND KBDN TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z FOR KRDM AND KBDN WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 21Z-04Z.
OTHERWISE, FEW-SCT 150-200 AGL THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH INTO THESE AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA WILL SPREAD WEST INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE OCHOCO AND ALDRICH
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY MOVE TO THE VICINITY OF KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AFTER
01Z; HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR THESE TAF SITES TO GET VCTS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. POLAN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD GET A SIGH OF RELIEF
AS THE WEATHER TRANSITIONS FROM THE HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS TO MORE COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE THE TIME OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED SOME OF THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN DESCHUTES COUNTY PRODUCED ABOUT 60 STRIKES IN THE PAST 30
MINUTES. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR NEW AND EXISTING FIRES. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. MANY STORMS WILL BRING UP TO
A HALF OF AN INCH AND SOME ONE INCH OR MORE...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FIREFIGHTERS IN STEEP
TERRAIN SHOULD WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS
DEBRIS FLOWS. WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 68 92 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
ALW 72 94 68 87 / 20 30 30 20
PSC 70 98 69 91 / 10 20 20 10
YKM 69 97 66 90 / 10 20 20 10
HRI 71 96 68 90 / 20 20 20 20
ELN 69 93 65 86 / 10 20 20 10
RDM 58 84 55 82 / 40 30 20 20
LGD 52 86 56 79 / 40 60 60 60
GCD 59 88 58 84 / 50 70 60 60
DLS 72 88 68 83 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ610-611-
640>645.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ643-645.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ030.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/99/99/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
931 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLTALE
OF HOW SIGNIFICANT THE DYNAMICS ARE SURROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT HAS BEEN DICTATING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AT LEAST 6 IMPULSES CAN BE SEEN PINWHEELING AROUND
THE UPPPER LOW...FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...RUNNING CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE LOW TO NORTHWEST NEVADA. THESE UPSTREAM IMPUSLES IN
NEVADA WILL HELP SPARK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS THEY TRANSIT FROM EAST TO WEST.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY IS THE DIFFERENCE
IN CLOUD COVER. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THIS MORNING LIKE YESTERDAY...THEY ARE THINNER AND HAVE
MORE BREAKS THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY...AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING
TODAY. SO...WHERE THERE IS GOOD SUNSHINE TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF
JOSEPHINE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE PARTS OF JACKSON COUNTY...NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...THE CASCADES...AND EAST SIDE...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES...BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER AN INCH.
I HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING AND HAVE TONED DOWN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE A LITTLE WEST OF THE CASCADES BASED ON MORNING
ANALYSIS...BUT HAVE KEPT THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE FORECAST
INTACT...WHICH CONVEYS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
OF THE INLAND AREAS TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE...FOR INLAND AREAS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FROM 21Z-04Z. STRONG GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS.
ALONG THE COAST...A MIX OF MFR/IFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED MVFR OR IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY, EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE
COAST. THEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015...VARIABLE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR AND LIFT TODAY BUT THEN EXPECT
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DOMINATE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS AND WIND WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED RETURN TO THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTH WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH. SK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 240 AM PDT, THURSDAY 9 JULY 2015... LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MONTEREY BAY, CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
IT DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST TODAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CURRY COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO INCREASED
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN STORM CORES.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO SOME
BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. /CC
&&
.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY REPRESENTED THE FIRST DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 35 DAYS.
THAT IS QUITE REMARKABLE AND HIGHLIGHTS FURTHER HOW HOT A JUNE AND
EARLY JULY IT HAS BEEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW LIES TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW. THROUGH TODAY, THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS TREK, THE INFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT. THIS WILL
LEAVE TODAY AS THE LAST BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
MOISTURE AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE
MAIN CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION, STORMS TODAY ARE
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CONCENTRATING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE CASCADES OF OREGON, AND SOME ARE SUGGESTING A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ORBITING THE LOW TO THE SOUTH, FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES AND
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES, AND
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE, AND THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
THE NAM AND GFS BRING THE WAVE THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR BRINGS IT IN SLIGHTLY
EARLIER. THE LATER SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY, GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME. THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO
DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVE EARLIER,
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING, AND THEREFORE LIMIT
CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS THE LESSER POSSIBILITY, BUT STILL A
POSSIBILITY. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER, AND THIS
COULD TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, SHOULD
ANY AREAS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY, A SECOND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG IN ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME RESIDUAL
ENERGY AND INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, AND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO
NEAR NOTHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR DOWNWARD SWING AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER KEEPS THE INCOMING
SUNLIGHT AT BAY. AS AN EXAMPLE, WEDNESDAY WAS THE FIRST IN FIFTEEN
DAYS THAT THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT GET ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN MEDFORD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
NSK/NSK/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...VERY LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE
LOWER 60S MOST AREAS...AND EVEN UPPER 50S IN OTHERS. THIS HAS CAPPED
SBCAPE VALUES AT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...AND WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WILL
FURTHER SERVE TO CURTAIL LATE DAY CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
ISOLD WEAK RIDGE TOP SHOWERS/TSRA. THE HRRR DOES FEATURE SCATTERED
NC FOOTHILLS CONVECTION DEVELOPING CIRCA 19Z...BUT THIS WILL BE A
STRUGGLE GIVEN THE MIXED OUT DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...AN H5 RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
SE COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING MAINLY BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
MAY MAKE SOME PROGRESS SWD INTO THE NRN TIER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI.
NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NRN TIER...BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CINH IN SOUNDINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TO
ONCE AGAIN LIMIT INSTABILITY AND TSTM POTENTIAL DURING PEAK HEATING.
THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER OH
VALLEY FRI WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NRN NC MTNS LATE
IN THE DAY. AND...A FEW MODELS DEPICT ISOLD ACTIVITY OUT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT WARM MINS AND MAXES ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A 593DM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LIES THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM EAST TO
WEST NEAR THE NC/SC STATELINE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE ACROSS SE
KY...SW VA...AND E TN AND IMPACT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY THE 500MB RIDGE RETROGRADES FURTHER WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PLACING THE AREA IN GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AS WELL. GUIDANCE BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS VIRGINIA AND INTO NE NC HEADING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STAYS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS ALSO BRINGING A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GENERAL
SHORTWAVE TRACK JUSTIFIES CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NC PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ON SUNDAY WE REMAIN IN GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE SC COASTAL PLAIN
AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW...SUNDAY APPEARS TO SUPPORT
CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ONCE
AGAIN THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING SO WE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS EXTENDING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
NC AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS...AND
EASTWARD OVER THE GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THIS TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE CHANNELED WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT...THE EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES...AND CHANNELED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
CROSS OUR AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR
AREA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...DESPENING ON MODEL TIMING. THE FRONT
STALLS JUST TO OUR SE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINS OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND GREATER
INSTABILITY THAT WILL ONLY PARTIALLY DIMINISH EACH NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...FAVORING A BETTER CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE
TIME...BUT STEERING FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CELLS
MOVING...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTN. THE
HRRR DOES HINT AT ISOLD DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE....BUT DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S SO
THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. EXPECT MAINLY FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MTN RIDGES BOTH LATE AFTN TODAY
AND AGAIN FRI MORNING. LOW END WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
SUNDOWN...WITH MAINLY WSW FLOW EAST OF THE MTN AND NW WINDS AT KAVL.
FLOW SHOULD COME UP FROM THE NW THROUGHOUT WITH MIXING LATE FRI
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND TO PERMIT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER ANY CONVECTION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN
MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...VERY LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE
LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. THIS HAS CAPPED SBCAPE VALUES AT LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...AND WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WILL FURTHER SERVE TO CURTAIL
LATE DAY CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS ISOLD WEAK RIDGE TOP
SHOWERS/TSRA. THE HRRR HAS SCT NC FOOTHILLS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
CIRCA 19Z...BUT THIS WILL BE A STRUGGLE GIVEN THE MIXED OUT
DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...AN H5 RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE SE COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...WITH ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RIDING MAINLY BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY MAY MAKE SOME PROGRESS SWD INTO THE NRN TIER LATE DAY. IN
ADDITION...NW FLOW WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NRN TIER...BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CINH IN SOUNDINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TO
ONCE AGAIN LIMIT INSTABILITY AND TSTM POTENTIAL. THERE SHOULD BE AN
AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRI WHICH MAY
MAKE A RUN EASTWARD TOWARD THE NRN NC MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW
MODELS ALSO DEPICT ISOLD ACTIVITY OUT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
EXPECT WARM MINS AND MAXES ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. BENEATH THESE SHORTWAVES AT
THE SURFACE...AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
THERMAL PROFILES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO FAVOR SOME LOW LEVEL CIN AND POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THANKS THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. SOUNDINGS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST OVER WESTERN NC AND PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE ARE A TAD MORE
UNSTABLE WITH LESS CIN IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS LEAN TOWARD
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THESE MORE
FAVORABLE ZONES. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MCS PROPAGATION ALSO COMES
INTO PLAY LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR THE WESTERN NC MTNS AS
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KY AND
MIDDLE/EAST TN. EXPECTING A RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH DRY
PROFILES ALOFT THUS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
STRONG/SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. POPS
ON FRIDAY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS.
MODELS TRY TO SAG THE OLD FRONTAL AXIS INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS BEING UNCLEAR SUCH AS
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE INTRUSION. THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO WESTERN NC...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NC/SC STATELINE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE A TAD LESS AGGRESSIVE AS THEY
KEEP THE AXIS A HUNDRED OR SO MILES FURTHER NORTH.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL GUID FAVORS CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL AXIS WITH PERHAPS YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM MCS RIDING THE NW
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. PROFILES ARE A BIT
MORE MOIST ON SATURDAY THEREFORE LAPSE RATES AREA POORER WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY DEEP STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY COULD BE WET MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON BOTH IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FCST
POPS ON SATURDAY FAVOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GA AND UPSTATE SC.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT DOES LOOK PUSH FURTHER SOUTH SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE SC MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY MORNING AMIDST FURTHER RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST....WHILE A SHORTWAVE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...MODELS
LEAN TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT WOULD PLACE THE OLD FRONTAL AXIS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. GUIDANCE DOES
FAVOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE BOUNDARY LOCATION. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS AT OR A TAD BELOW CLIMO FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO VEER SOUTHERLY YIELDING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEND THEMSELVES TO
EVEN HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THANKS TO A BUILDING/DIVING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH COULD SWING INTO
THE PICTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING HIGHS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTN. THE
HRRR DOES HINT AT ISOLD DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE....BUT DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S SO
THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. EXPECT MAINLY FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MTN RIDGES BOTH LATE AFTN TODAY
AND AGAIN FRI MORNING. LOW END WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
SUNDOWN...WITH MAINLY WSW FLOW EAST OF THE MTN AND NW WINDS AT KAVL.
FLOW SHOULD COME UP FROM THE NW THROUGHOUT WITH MIXING LATE FRI
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND TO PERMIT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER ANY CONVECTION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY BEFORE...AND IN
MTN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015
.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to include a slight chance of thunderstorms
across all of the Big Country this afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm outflow boundary moving slowly south along a Roby...
Stamford...Woodson line at Noon will be focus for isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Lee trough will bring gusty south winds this afternoon and
again Friday beginning mid morning. Winds gusts between
20 and 25 KTS expected. MVFR stratus will return towards
morning Friday, scattering out mid morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Currently seeing MVFR stratus across the southern terminals
and this should persist through the mid morning hours before
scattering out to VFR. South winds will increase 15 to 20 kt
today, diminishing by sunset. Stratus is expected to develop
across towards daybreak Friday, with MVFR ceilings returning
to the southern terminals after 09Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
The subtropical ridge over the southeast states will begin
to build west into Texas the next 24 hours, and will be the
main weather feature affecting our weather through tonight.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
east-southeast across the Texas Panhandle and far northwest Texas
early this morning. This activity will track east along the Red
River Valley through the morning hours, with the majority of the
precipitation remaining north of the area. The HRRR however, does
generate some QPF across Haskell and Throckmorton counties this
morning. Cannot rule this out so have added slight POPs to the
forecast for both counties this morning. Otherwise, morning cloud
cover will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon, with
highs around 90 degrees. We`ll see some stratus redevelop late
tonight across southern sections, with overnight lows around 70
degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
On Friday, an upper level ridge across the Southeast United States
will continue to build west toward West Central Texas. In the
meantime, daytime heating should allow for the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Texas. The 00z NAM
is the most aggressive with this scenario, which drifts the
convection east, toward our western counties. Whether any of this
convection makes it into our western counties will be dependent on
the strength of the developing ridge, but for now the forecast was
kept dry. Highs on Friday will be below seasonal normals,
generally in the lower 90s.
A much quieter weather pattern is expected this weekend through much
of next week as an upper level ridge dominates the weather.
Temperatures will slowly creep up each day, although plentiful soil
moisture should help to keep temperatures a few degrees below MOS
guidance. High temperatures for the first part of next week will
generally be in the mid to upper 90s, although a few locations may
reach the century mark. No rain is forecast through the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 90 70 91 71 91 / 20 0 5 0 0
San Angelo 91 70 92 71 92 / 5 5 5 5 0
Junction 91 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 5 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADA PROVINCES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER
IOWA...ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE 09.12Z NAM AND 09.15Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION DEVELOPING AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH 5000 FEET TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 07Z
FRIDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF FIRST IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER DPROG/DT. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM
INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE PERIOD AND EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY OUT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW PV
ADVECTION/LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
IMPULSE AND FOCUS THE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT...PER DPROG/DT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR WITH
THE IMPULSE TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EFFECIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS/IMPULSE WOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AT ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION.
SUNDAY...IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IMPULSE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 09.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE IMPULSE PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEVELOP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEN...THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE...WHERE THE 09.12Z GFS BREAKS
DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND THE
09.12Z ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 09.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DECENT LIFT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW AND SURFACE FRONT/LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ON AND
OFF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015
IT SEEMS CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DEEPER LIGHT
WIND LAYER AND THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL BE QUITE DRY. SINCE WE
ARE EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED SOME IFR BR
CONDITIONS AT KLSE AROUND SUNRISE. THE CIG IFR CONDITIONS ARE OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF 1/4SM AT KLSE AROUND 11Z. IF YOU HAVE AVIATION
INTERESTS AT KLSE IN THE MORNING...MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1035 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
THE REST OF THIS MORNING BUT STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS NOON TIME WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOW
GENERALLY SHOWING BETWEEN 500 AND 1200 J/KG AND WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
VERY LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
THE DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN CHEYENNE
AND THE SUMMIT HAS LIFTED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THERE MAY BE A FEW
POCKETS OF FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY
ERODE. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM MAIN CONCERN IS WITH DENSE FOG THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ALONG I-80 AND I-25 IN
THESE AREAS WILL GO UP AND DOWN BETWEEN 1/8TH OF A MILE TO 1 MILE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GO A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATE MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK/LIFT THE AREAS OF FOG.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
16Z.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN A BIT...AROUND 0.80
INCHES MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER SE
WYOMING TODAY WHERE MORE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
MORE STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND MUCAPES AROUND 1100 J/KG
AROUND CHEYENNE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING DO SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MAYBE JUST EAST...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
VIRTUALLY NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED YESTERDAY EAST OF THE
LARAMIES DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. TODAY
WE STILL SEE A CAP AROUND 700 MB OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT
THAT CAP IS WEAKER. TODAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND A SMALL
POTENTIAL TO BREAK THE CAP SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST MOVERS TODAY GIVEN ONLY
10-15 KT OF STORM MOTION...SO AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF
POTENTIAL ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES WHERE STRONGER STORMS FORM
UP...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
STORMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. ANY LINGERING STORMS INTO
THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAST AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW POPS
GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY...ONE THING THAT CATCHES THE EYE IS MODELS PEGGING THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MIDLVEL
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY FAT CAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
TOMORROW...BUT SOME WEAK ROTATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW WITH INCREASED HAIL POTENTIAL FOR
OUR EASTERN-MOST ZONES. LATER FORECASTS CAN BETTER DEFINE ANY
SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH LOWER THREAT EAST
TO THE LARAMIE RANGE OF WYOMING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
NICE...DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GETS
DRAWN NORTH INTO MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WYOMING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +12
TO +14C. COULD BE WINDY OUT WEST AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 40KTS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TUESDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH OUT OF COLORADO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCYS. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE WITH LATEST HRRR FINALLY
BREAKING OUT KSNY BY 16-17Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AFTER STRATUS BREAKS UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2015
ABOVE NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NOTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO
BECOME DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MONSOONAL PATTERN OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES COMES BACK BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE MINIMAL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG