Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/08/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ

951 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AIR
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SELIGMAN TO TUBA
CITY, TO FOUR CORNERS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SEASONABLY HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THIS
MORNINGS BELLEMONT SOUNDING INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS UP TO AROUND 15K FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL. STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THOUGH POSSIBLY NOT AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. AREAS NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT RESIDE IN THAT
AREA. UPDATES SENT A SHORT TIME AGO TO END MORNING SHOWERS SOUTH
OF I-40, OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/... VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FINALLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AT
3 AM AFTER RAINING FOR MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA IS LIKELY
WORKED OVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE PER HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION TO AFTER 11 AM...WITH STORMS
MOST LIKELY FORMING OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND EASTERN RIM
FIRST...AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN
AZ.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD BE SEEING DRY WEATHER
WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE
TO PAYSON. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SETS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES PER MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS SHOW THE MONSOON PLUME TO PUSH WESTWARD STARTING SATURDAY
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW SUIT.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STORMS. ISOLD-SCT
TSRA/-SHRA MAY ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND USTABLE
CIRCULATION PATTERN GOING TODAY FOR A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
RESULTING IN LESS STORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...JJ/DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

840 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RENEWED THIS AFTERNOON WELL EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN SUNDAY. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH....WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NEXT
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW AND GRAVITY WAVE WHICH TRIGGERED THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
MARICOPA COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DEPARTED WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT SUPPORTING THESE STORMS HAS ALSO MOVED
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE STRIPPED THE VAST MAJORITY
OF POPS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC BASIN...AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE IN
MIXING RATIOS ABOVE THE H5 LAYER. VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD FURTHER
REDUCED MEAN ATMOSPHERIC MIXING RATIOS IN THE SFC-H5 LAYER THROUGH
THE DAY...AND BEST SUPPORTING GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION PRIMARILY LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/458 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015/
TODAY...
THERE IS A MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER
ARIZONA. EARLIER THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO HAD
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 40S AND BLYTHE DROPPED TO NEAR 50. DEW POINTS
HAVE GONE BACK UP...MOST NOTICEABLY AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO. MEANWHILE
DEW POINTS HAVE STAYED WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...EMANATING FROM
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH IS HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DESPITE THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CIN DEPICTED
IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING THOUGH NOT AS
MUCH AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. FOR LATER TODAY...MODELS NOT
OPTIMISTIC ON STORM COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
OTHER MODELS. WHILE WE TEND NOT TO GET MUCH ACTIVITY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MORE THAN ONE MODEL IS INDICATING A 500
MB SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST TAKES
OVER. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL INCREASE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTER MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA...WITH DRY AIR WEST OF THERE. ALSO A VORT
LOBE SWINGS THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA
AS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
INDICATING SOME DIFLUENCE RELATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. NOT
KNOWING JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...MADE SOME JUST
SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS.
THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY BUT IS REPLACED
WITH RENEWED TROUGHING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. THUS THE
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE BEING SHIFTED FURTHER EAST...TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE BIT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST WITH MOISTURE IMPROVING OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS. THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION THE
ECMWF. WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER AND WHICH COULD OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE THE MOISTURE INCREASE.
TOOK CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY EXPANDED POPS TO PINAL COUNTY.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH
HIGHS NUDGING UP ABOVE 105.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH CIGS CLEARING MID
MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
CONFINED MAINLY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ELY SFC WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT AROUND TO WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIMITED AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND GUSTS AT KBLH MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK...PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WELL TO
THE EAST OF PHOENIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY ACTIVE REGIONS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY MAY LACK
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL RETREAT BACK INTO A 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ALL WEEK...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE GUSTINESS THAN IS TYPICAL DURING MONSOON SEASON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...MO/HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

458 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE LIMITED TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STORM CHANCES REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH LESS
ACTIVITY THAN WAS SEEN SUNDAY. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MONSOON MOISTURE BEING
CONFINED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FOR SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

LATE NIGHT STORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY FROM
BACK-BUILDING STORMS THAT HAD BEEN OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
FAR SOUTHWEST YAVAPAI. THOSE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED OUTFLOW ALONG WITH
EVEN EARLIER STORMS FROM CENTRAL YAVAPAI WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE
TRIGGERED NEW STORMS OVER NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY AND AS OF THIS
WRITING ISOLATED WEAK ECHOES OVER METRO PHOENIX. THERE IS A MOISTURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER ARIZONA. EARLIER
TONIGHT THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO HAD DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 40S AND BLYTHE DROPPED TO NEAR 50. DEW POINTS HAVE GONE
BACK UP...MOST NOTICEABLY AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO. MEANWHILE DEW
POINTS HAVE STAYED WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
METRO PHOENIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE...EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DESPITE THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN DEPICTED IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
INDICATING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
MORNING THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. FOR LATER
TODAY...MODELS NOT OPTIMISTIC ON STORM COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. WHILE WE TEND NOT TO GET MUCH
ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MORE THAN ONE MODEL IS
INDICATING A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA. THUS REINTRODUCED
POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANTICIPATE BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST TAKES
OVER. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL INCREASE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTER MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA...WITH DRY AIR WEST OF THERE. ALSO A VORT
LOBE SWINGS THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA
AS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
INDICATING SOME DIFFLUENCE RELATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. NOT
KNOWING JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...MADE SOME JUST
SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS.
THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY BUT IS REPLACED
WITH RENEWED TROUGHING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. THUS THE
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE BEING SHIFTED FURTHER EAST...TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE BIT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST WITH MOISTURE IMPROVING OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS. THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION THE
ECMWF. WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER AND WHICH COULD OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE THE MOISTURE INCREASE.
TOOK CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY EXPANDED POPS TO PINAL COUNTY.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH
HIGHS NUDGING UP ABOVE 105.

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PHOENIX METRO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AT KPHX
AND SOMEWHAT LOWER AT KSDL/KIWA. CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LOWER TO 6K FT
AT KPHX THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ

345 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AIR TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION... VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FINALLY
WINDING DOWN ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AT 3 AM AFTER RAINING FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA IS LIKELY WORKED OVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE PER HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION TO AFTER 11 AM...WITH STORMS MOST
LIKELY FORMING OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND EASTERN RIM FIRST...AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY IS LOOKING
SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN AZ.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD BE SEEING DRY WEATHER WITH
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO
PAYSON. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES PER MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS SHOW THE MONSOON PLUME TO PUSH WESTWARD STARTING SATURDAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW SUIT.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE..ISOLD-SCT TSRA/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF COCONINO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED BTWN 17-04Z
TODAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CIRCULATION PATTERN GOING TODAY FOR A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
RESULTING IN LESS STORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION & FIRE WEATHER...TEC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

400 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST TAKES
OVER. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL INCREASE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS RATHER
LOW. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON STRONG SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS MOVED INTO THE AREA...
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH...AND SHIFTING THE PREDOMINANT WEST WIND TO A
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. HAVE EXPECTED WINDS TO RETURN BACK TO
THE WEST...AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED...AFTER THE OUTFLOW WINDS
DISSIPATED BUT THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOW LOW THAT
WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT LATER THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KPHX. CANNOT RULE OUT WINDS LATER RETURNING
TO THE WEST DUE TO A LONG-TRAVELING OUTFLOW WIND GENERATED FROM
STORMS IN LA PAZ COUNTY...BUT WILL NOT PUT THIS POTENTIAL OUTCOME
INTO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE REMOVED WEST WINDS FROM THE
PHOENIX TAFS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

LESS OF A THREAT FOR STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SKIES TO BE GENLY CLEAR AT KIPL AND KBLH
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SOUTH
NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...BECOMING LOCALLY GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY AFTN.
LESS CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AT KIPL...THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST
LESS THAN 15KT BUT MAY BRIEFLY SWING TO THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

824 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG INVERSION MAY HOLD JULY
GLOOM OVER SOME COASTAL AREAS AGAIN TODAY...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
INLAND SLOWLY CLEAR. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL JULY DAY. FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
SPREADS INLAND. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN FURTHER INLAND COOLING AND PERIODS OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE
MTS/DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z MIRAMAR RELEASE...THE 12Z NAM...AND EVEN
THE LIMITED EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE PASSES AT 09Z SHOW INCREASED
INSTABILITY TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR LAYER PW...WHILE LOWER
LEVEL OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MTS. WINDS BELOW 500 MBS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND HAVE
BACKED TO THE SE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MOISTURE BELOW 9000 FT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE 500
MBS GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE FROM THE SW. COUPLE THIS WITH FULL
HEATING...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
OVER THE MTS...AND MOVING OFF INTO THE DESERTS.

THE 12Z NAM12 SHOWS THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND HAS WEAK VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDED LIFT. THE 14Z HRRR RUN ALSO HAS
CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALL ALONG THE MTN CRESTS BY 20Z.

EXPECT A FEW STRONG CELLS WITH GUSTY DOWNDRAFT OUTFLOWS...CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE MARINE
STRATUS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES...WHILE
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MTS AND DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2950 FT MSL.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THU. FALLING/HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
FURTHER COOLING THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND TEN DEGREES F BELOW AVERAGE. THE DRYING ALOFT WILL SNUFF
OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER TODAY.

GRADUALLY WARMER THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THE MARINE LAYER DECREASES.

.AVIATION... 061450Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC-BKN STRATUS FILLING THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...WITH BASES 1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS 2900-3200
FT MSL...WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH 1900
UTC...WITH BKN-OVC STRATUS 2000-3000 FT MSL LINGERING WITHIN 10 SM
OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 07/0200 UTC...INCLUDING KCRQ
AND KSAN. BETTER CHANCE OF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST CLEARING. 11 DEG
C MARINE LAYER INVERSION THIS MORNING. 07/0200-1500 UTC...OVC
STRATUS FILLING IN OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS AGAIN...WITH BASES
1800-2200 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE 1900-07/0200 UTC TIME-PERIOD OVER
THE MTNS AND DESERTS...WITH BASES 8000-10000 FT MSL AND CB TOPS TO
40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.MARINE... 750 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND MY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1124 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...FRONT TO BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...

UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING
OVER 120-160% OF NORMAL...MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE POTENTIAL FLOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
HELPING TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SO AS DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THROUGH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
CO...THIS WILL SEND A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS. FORCING APPEARS A BIT STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SUSPECT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SPREAD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN A
GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CO WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30-
35 MPH AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GFS STILL THE MORE HEAVY HANDED OF THE MODELS. MAJORITY
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HARD TO ARGUE WITH KEEPING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE MONSOON
PLUME OUT WEST...AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/-
TSRA ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. MAJORITY OF THE
PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM/MCS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.

MONDAY MORNING SHOULD START TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE EAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS NV
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP WATERS FALL OFF A BIT IN BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...SO PERHAPS
A LITTLE LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OUT THAT WAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.
DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS...SO ASSUMING WE CAN
REALIZE THE INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO
STRONG STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...THEN STRONGER CONVECTION MAY STAY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD OVER STABLE
AIRMASS...AND DIMINISHING. VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SCENARIO.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH PLAINS LOOKING
MORE CAPPED. MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25. BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT MOST
PRECIP TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA FARTHER EAST. ON TUESDAY...MUCH THE SAME SET-UP
AS MONDAY...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE AGAIN LACK OF INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS WILL MEAN
ONLY SOME WEAK CONVECTION EAST OF I-25. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP BACK
UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE MAXES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WED AND
THU...WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW STAYS S-SW AS UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND UPPER HIGH IS FAIRLY FAR EAST OVER THE GULF
COAST. INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON AS CAPES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1000 J/KG...AND WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES BOTH WED/THU. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF
USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA CYCLE AS WELL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS ALL AREAS AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW UPWARD CRAWL...WITH READINGS BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THU AFTERNOON.

FRI-SUN PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER/WARMER AS WESTERN UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND FLAT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO.
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MONSOON MOISTURE TAP WILL STAY SUPPRESSED TO
OUR SOUTH...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S/90S LOWER ELEVATIONS...NOT TOO HOT BY MID
JULY STANDARDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE VCNTY
OF KCOS AND KPUB LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED...MAY HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS
FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

334 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SLOWER TO GET GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BUT THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY WAS QUITE ACTIVE. THIS WILL SET
UP A STRONG EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS OCCURRING TOWARDS THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FROM
ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN THE FOCUS
SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH BREVARD AND REACH TO OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
IN THE EVENING. COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE 50-60 PERCENT...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

TUE-WED...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON TUE WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH ON WED. LIGHT S/SSW MORNING WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO SE/ESE EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST 1.70-1.90 INCHES ON TUE THEN DRIER AIR IS STILL
FORECAST TO INFILTRATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE WED. LATEST MOS HAS
HIGHEST COASTAL POPS IN THE NORTH...TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THEIR 40-50 PERCENT VALUES FOR THE
NORTH COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR. ON WED...20-30 PERCENT ARE
INDICATED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUE...THEN SERLY/ERLY ON WED.

THU-MON...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE CENTER OF MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLC
TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PENINSULA ON THU WILL GET NUDGED
FURTHER SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. ERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS FORECAST EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA.
AS A RESULT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. CONSENSUS MOS POPS HAVE RISEN FOR SUN/MON AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A BACK DOOR FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS.

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZES PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND AND THERE WILL BE A MERGER
BETWEEN THE TWO AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.
THERE IS STILL SOME WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...SO THE STORMS THAT
FORM INLAND WILL PROBABLY PUSH BACK AND TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO EVENING AT SOME OF THE EAST COASTAL SITES. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING. ON TUE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE TYPICALLY MOIST. STEERING FLOW LOOKS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES
ACROSS INLAND SITES.

.MARINE...

TUE-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA TUE WILL
LIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA WED-FRI. A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF OF THE
COAST FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD TUE. STEERING FLOW THEN BACKS TO
EASTERLY WED-FRI AND SOME DRYING OCCURS...BRINGING DECREASED STORM
CHANCES TO THE WATERS. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AOB
3 FT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND ADVANCE
INLAND WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 90 74 89 / 40 40 20 20
MCO 74 94 74 92 / 30 50 20 40
MLB 73 88 75 88 / 30 30 20 20
VRB 72 89 73 90 / 30 20 20 20
LEE 75 94 76 92 / 20 40 20 40
SFB 75 93 75 92 / 40 50 20 40
ORL 76 93 76 91 / 30 50 20 40
FPR 71 89 73 89 / 30 20 20 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

GRIDS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

1019 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND COMBINE WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO MUCH OF THE INLAND BIG BEND AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF
STORMS.

THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING WAS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 850-700 MB
COULD HELP SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]...ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND.

.PREV DISCUSSION [636 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE 91 73 94 72 93 / 60 20 50 20 40
PANAMA CITY 88 78 89 75 89 / 40 10 30 10 30
DOTHAN 90 73 94 73 94 / 30 20 30 10 30
ALBANY 91 73 94 73 94 / 30 20 40 20 40
VALDOSTA 91 72 95 73 95 / 50 20 40 20 40
CROSS CITY 92 73 93 72 93 / 40 20 50 20 40
APALACHICOLA 89 77 90 75 90 / 40 10 30 10 30

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...PETERSON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...
AVIATION...WESTON/PETERSON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

930 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOME DRIER AIR HAS
CREEPED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A VORT MAX THAT HAD PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE GFS DID NOT QUITE SHOW THE EXTENT OF THIS DRYING. THERE WAS
LIKELY A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
HOWEVER...THIS WAS COMING AT THE EXPENSE OF QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS. THE SLIGHT DRYING AND LINGERING CLOUDINESS SHOULD ACT
TO DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTION. THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
WERE SHOWING. HOWEVER...ONCE LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS GET
GOING...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THE HRRR AND WRF LIKE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE GREATEST
COVERAGE...BUT THINK THAT THE EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION WILL
GENERATE THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. HAVE MADE
MINOR POP AND WEATHER GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
TRENDS...THINKING THAT SCATTERED POPS WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS LAST NIGHT.

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING.
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO TS 17-20Z ALONG COAST EXCEPT 18Z-21Z DAB.
LATER ONSET FOR INTERIOR AERODROMES WITH HIGHEST PROBS 20Z-24Z.
LINGERING DEBRIS RA AND A FEW TS RUMBLES POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THESE WINDOWS.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO WIND/SEA CONCERNS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE WATERS PRODUCES A LIGHT-GENTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BREEZE. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOULD BE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1251 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
1130 AM CDT

LOOKING AT A MURKY PATTERN TODAY WITH NO SET OF GUIDANCE PICKING
UP ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE MCS OVER IOWA AS A WHOLE HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING...BUT NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD
OF THE MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THINKING THE
STORMS WILL STAY TIED TO THE MCV NORTH OF I-80/I-88 INTO THIS
AFTN AS THE MCV SHIFTS NE INTO WI. HAVE CONCERNS ON THE EFFECT OF
THE MCS CLOUD SHIELD AS IT MAY LIMIT MIXING...HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY. WHILE CAPE VALUES MAY NOT BE VERY ROBUST...THINKING
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR GENERAL TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM
WEST OF I-55 THROUGH THE MID AFTN. BETTER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT STRONG STORMS ARE PROBABLE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK PRETTY GOOD OUTSIDE OF NORTH CENTRAL IL
INCLUDING THE RFD AREA WHERE THE CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

JEE

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.

THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.

THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

* MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR TUESDAY MORNING.

* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT TUESDAY.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED EASTWARD
EXPANSION. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL PUTS FIRST ROUND OF THUNDER TO
ORD/MDW CLOSE TO 20Z. AS THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
MAIN STORM COMPLEX...THEY ARE LOSING THEIR INTENSITY. FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF FIRST ROUND OF THUNDER...EXPECT VCSH ON AND OFF UNTIL
THE NEXT ROUND OF TSRA APPROACHES. MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS THUNDER
AT ORD/MDW AGAIN NEAR 02-03Z...LASTING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.

LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS...BR...AND OCCL SHOWERS. LOW-BASED INVERSION
EARLY TUESDAY WILL KEEP MVFR LIKELY WITH A CHANCE FOR CEILINGS
DROPPING UNDER 1KFT. THE INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT JUST AFTER 12Z
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MEDIUM ON TIMING.

* HIGH ON MVFR TUESDAY...MEDIUM LOW ON IFR OCCURRING.

* HIGH ON NORTH WINDS OVER 10KT.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
431 AM CDT

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO 30KT ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DID
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY
LATER THAN THE START TIME TO THE ADVISORY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SOME SLIGHTLY VARIABILITY
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DO LOOK
LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ONCE
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1136 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
1130 AM CDT

HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK PRETTY GOOD OUTSIDE OF NORTH CENTRAL IL
INCLUDING THE RFD AREA WHERE THE CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

JEE

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY.

* NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT TUESDAY.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT ONE
TO TWO HOURS...WHILE DENSE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING PRECIP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DESPITE
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH TIMING/COVERAGE. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THIS PRECIP COULD ARRIVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO MOVED UP TIMING A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A POSSIBLE EARLIER ARRIVAL SEEMS PROBABLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUE TO
STEADILY PROGRESS EAST. WITH EASTWARD EXPANDING INSTABILITY AXIS
TODAY...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR...THAN AN EVEN EARLIER ARRIVAL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP
LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDER ALSO
LIKELY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT ONLY SHIFT
THE WINDS...BUT ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IFR IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MEDIUM ON TIMING.

* MEDIUM HIGH ON MVFR EARLY TUESDAY.

* MEDIUM HIGH ON WINDS OVER 10KT FROM NORTHEAST TUESDAY.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
431 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1106 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY.

* NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT TUESDAY.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MEDIUM ON TIMING.

* MEDIUM HIGH ON MVFR EARLY TUESDAY.

* MEDIUM HIGH ON WINDS OVER 10KT FROM NORTHEAST TUESDAY.

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
431 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

847 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* MVFR VIS THIS MORNING.

* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

* MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RODRIGUEZ/MM

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

RODRIGUEZ/MM

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
431 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

704 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

* MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
431 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

432 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY STAYING WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. PATCHY
FOG WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVING A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE TERMINALS IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND TIMING. AM MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD FIRST IMPACT RFD BY LATE
MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH RFD...BUT SHOULD ALSO OBSERVE A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES. BEST FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY PRECIP AS WELL AS TIMING AND DURATION. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP IN THE TAFS WITH RFD HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE TO OBSERVE IT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE
REMAINING TERMINALS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AT THIS TIME...AS SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING THIS PRECIP IN
EARLIER. OTHER CHALLENGES WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION LIKELY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY.

* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
431 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

353 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY.

* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
220 PM CDT

WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.

THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

309 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

KMD

.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

KMD

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY.

* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
220 PM CDT

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 60 78 57 / 70 60 20 10
GCK 78 59 79 57 / 70 30 10 10
EHA 79 59 78 60 / 60 40 20 20
LBL 83 62 78 59 / 70 60 20 20
HYS 81 59 78 56 / 70 30 10 10
P28 94 64 76 61 / 90 90 50 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE KGCK/KDDC
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR KHYS, WHERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER AROUND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15-25 KT BETWEEN 12Z-
18Z AND THEN NORTHERLY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 60 78 57 / 60 70 20 10
GCK 80 60 79 57 / 40 40 10 10
EHA 81 59 78 60 / 40 50 20 20
LBL 85 62 78 59 / 60 60 20 20
HYS 81 59 78 56 / 60 50 10 10
P28 90 64 76 61 / 70 80 50 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

307 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 60 78 57 / 70 70 20 10
GCK 80 60 79 57 / 50 40 10 10
EHA 81 59 78 60 / 50 50 20 20
LBL 85 62 78 59 / 70 60 20 20
HYS 81 59 78 56 / 60 50 10 10
P28 90 64 76 61 / 90 80 50 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 62 78 58 / 80 60 10 10
GCK 84 61 80 58 / 60 20 10 10
EHA 80 61 79 60 / 40 20 10 20
LBL 85 64 78 60 / 40 20 10 10
HYS 82 60 79 56 / 70 30 10 10
P28 90 64 78 62 / 80 90 40 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

940 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

JUST ISSUED A MID-EVENING GRID/TABULAR/TEXT FORECAST UPDATE TO
REFLECT TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT. MAIN
INSTABILITY AND MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

HOWEVER...ELEVATED (ISOLATED) THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A PERRYVILLE MO...HARRISBURG IL...EVANSVILLE IN
LINE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT.

BLENDED POP/WEATHER/WEATHER TYPE/INTENSITY GRIDS WITH HRRR AND
NAM-WRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z (7 AM CDT) WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM CDT AS THE FLOW
CHANGES AND DRAWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHEAST OVER THE
RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST QPF
(RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH CROWLEY`S RIDGE IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (NORTH OF ROUTE 13) BETWEEN 7
AM AND 1 PM ON WEDNESAY.

THE PERIOD BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO QPF...WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN
RAIN WEST OF A GREENVILLE...POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI LINE...WITH A
SECONDARY MAXIMUM IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION OF
WEST KENTUCKY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS PAH FA IS HELPING FOCUS SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG IT. HIGH PW`S AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS ADDING
TO PREDECESSOR RAINS TO HEIGHTEN FLOOD CONCERNS...COLLABORATED FOR
FFA ACROSS ENTIRE FA THRU 00Z THU.

ANTICIPATE MORE OR LESS CONTINUAL PULSING OF STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY
AND REPEAT TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS THRU TONITE INTO TMRW...AS
PIECES OF ENERGY RUN ALONG IT WITH PARALLEL FLOW ATOP IT. THIS
WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL.

BEYOND THAT...TAPERING CHANCES AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND
STARTS TO SQUEEZE OUT/DISINTEGRATE SAID BOUNDARY WITH TIME.
CLOUDS/CONVECTION TO HOLD DIURNAL RANGES DOWN UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
A FAIRLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER OVER OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON FRIDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. KEPT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY FOR FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FRIDAY, AND INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY, AND THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SURFACE LOW SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CANADIAN SEEMS
TO KEEP THIS FEATURE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THOUGH THE GFS ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, OVERALL THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SEEM
A REASONABLE SOLUTION TO FOLLOW. A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

PRIMARY CHALLENGES FOR THE 00Z WEDNESDAY WFO PAH TAF PRODUCT
ISSUANCE WILL BE HANDLING CHANGING WIND DIRECTION WITH THE
STALLING...THEN NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE AND LIFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE IN THE 06-12Z TIME PERIOD KPAH/KCGI AND
SLIGHTLY LATER FOR KOWB/KEVV AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD. VFR
VISIBILITIES SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES, BUT
BROKEN UPPER IFR/LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

UPDATE...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LAST
NIGHT...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS FIVE HUNDRED FEET. THIS LOW STRATUS
SPREAD ACROSS KPAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH KEVV/KOWB BEFORE
THEIR BASES CLIMB TO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE FOG HAS BEEN LESS OF A
PROBLEM THIS MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBYS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS...BUT TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...THEN A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.

ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

810 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...THE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
INCLUDING ALL OF SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THERE SO WILL TWEAK TEMPS UP FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
PRODUCING A RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MUCH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THANKS TO
CONTINUED RIDGING AT MID LEVELS, WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING
TNITE, WILL ADD SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR IS HINTING AT THIS AS WELL.

.MARINE...WINDS LOOK TO BE INCREASING OVER THE OUTER WESTERN
WATERS TNITE. WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OUT
THERE.

SWEENEY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
S WINDS 10-12 KTS EARLY...DIMINISHING TO 6-8 KTS AFTER 02Z INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 09-13Z
WITH THE STRATOCU DECK COMING OFF THE GULF TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AFTER
15Z...S WINDS 10-14 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED AGAIN. WITH
20% OVER SC LA BY THE AFTERNOON...PLACED VCSH FOR LFT/ARA TERMINALS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON
AT THE EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...DESPITE THE MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND NEAR
REGIONS THAT MSAS SHOWS DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING...AND THEREFORE...SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINLY HOLD ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF SOUTH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ALONG THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO BE A
LITTLE BETTER.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE...SEEN BEST ON THE PROGS AT 70H...WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE AND FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE AROUND THAT LEVEL...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN THE DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS AGAIN PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE VERY
NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO
LEVELS WHERE THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS
OR FORECAST.

RUA

MARINE...
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAKING FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MODERATE WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE REGION.

RUA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 93 74 92 / 20 10 10 20
LCH 79 91 77 91 / 20 10 10 20
LFT 78 91 76 91 / 20 20 10 30
BPT 80 92 77 92 / 10 10 10 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ470.

PUBLIC...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...RADARS AND HRRR MODEL ARE QUIET TNITE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD BE BUILDING WHILE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE GULF CONTINUES BELOW
THE INVERSION. THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LCH. MONDAY
EVENING BOTH BPT AND LCH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN.

SWEENEY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 93 74 92 / 20 10 10 20
LCH 77 91 78 91 / 10 10 10 20
LFT 74 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 20
BPT 78 91 78 91 / 10 10 10 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

915 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
S/WV ENERGY HAS SUPPORTED TSRA CROSSING WVA AND INTO THE CWFA. AMS
AHD OF LINE HAS SUFFICIENT INSTBY...ALTHO THAT LVL DIMINISHES
FURTHER EAST. /2000+ J/KG CAPE FROM RNK SNDG BUT LESS THAN 1000
J/KG AT IAD./ SHEAR PROFILES NOT THAT GREAT...PLUS DIURNAL HEATING
HAS BEEN LOST WITH THE SETTING SUN. OVERALL...XPCT TSRA TO BE
NON- SVR...AND WKNG THRU THE EVNG. SOME GUSTY WINDS /30-40 KT/
PSBL NEXT HR OR TWO. HV BUMPED POPS UPWD W OF THE BLURDG ONCE
ALREADY...AND BASED ON LTST TRENDS SUSPECT I/LL BE DOING IT YET
AGAIN. RAP RUNS SUGGEST IT MAY MAKE IT TO DC...ALTHO LTST RAP LESS
EMPHATIC THAN PRVS CYCLES.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED MORNING...WITH INCRSG
COVERAGE OF PCPN OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT SEEMS TO BE WITH
COLD FRONTS THIS SUMMER...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NEARLY
ZONAL...RESULTING IN THE FRONT TAKING A MORE EAST- WEST POSITION
THAN NE-SW. WITH THIS SET UP AS WELL...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MINIMAL
PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH...WITH IT STALLING NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
WED-WED NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL
DYNAMICS WOULD KEEP ANY SVR THREAT MINIMAL.

DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS ON WED EXPECTED INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY
MARK.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO REMAIN AND HIGHS MAY ONCE
AGAIN REACH THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF US...BUT SUGGEST A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND CAPE...SO A STRAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DOESNT LOOK IMPOSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO THE 90S FOR A DAY OR TWO. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO LOWER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
PRETTY LOW ON FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE THEM FROM THE
FORECAST JUST YET IN CASE FUTURE MODELING IS SLOWER IN DRAGGING
THE FRONT THROUGH.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI NIGHT AS A
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR SAT. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NW INTO SUN
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTS LATER THAT DAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AFFECTS THE AREA MON INTO TUE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO
BE SUN THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NGT. LINE OF TSRA CROSSING THE
APLCNS ATTM. XPCT A BIT OF A WEAKENING TREND...BUT A FEW STORMS
LKLY WL MAKE IT TO THE BLURDG. LOW CONFIDENCE WHAT WL HPPN
THEREAFTER. MRB NEAREST STORMS...AND ADDED MVFR TEMPO GROUP TO
TAF. HWVR...A BREAK HAS DVLPD IN THE LINE...AND ITS PSBL THAT EVEN
MRB MAY MISS THIS ACTIVITY. AM WITHHOLDING ANY MENTION DC/BALT
METROS ATTM SINCE CONFIDENCE TOO LOW. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE
FOR BRIEF AOB IFR W/ GUSTY WINDS 30-40 KT. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS PCPN TO MRB BTWN 02-03Z...CHO/IAD
BTWN 03-04Z...AND ELSW AFTR 04Z /ASSUMING IT SURVIVES/.

THE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN IMPACTING THE TERMINALS TOMORROW. COULD
SEE PCPN AS EARLY AS 12Z...BUT INCRSG CHC AFTR 15/16Z...LASTING
THRU THE AFTN...TAPERING OFF WED EVENING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL
IN ANY STORM.

WINDS S-SW THIS AFTN 8-12 KTS...BCMG S 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SW AFTR 12Z WED...BCMG
LIGHT/VRB WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION. DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY ALIGNS...COULD SEE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DEVELOPING STRATUS/FOG.

MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY IS POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE BE VFR WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ATTM. AS THE FRONT NEARS
TONIGHT...COULD SEE INCRSG SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN CHANNELING ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR NOW...BUT WL BE
REEVALUATING IT SHORTLY. AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE SW WED...SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY BRING SOME SCA-LEVEL WINDS TO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. WINDS APPEAR TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED OUR AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN THURSDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/SEARS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/RCM/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/RCM/IMR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

144 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
ACRS MOST OF SE VA/NE NC. THIS IS WHERE LATEST RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTS SFC BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH SOME
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ADDED "HEAVY RAIN" WORDING TO THE
FORECAST HERE AS WELL. LATEST HRRR PICKING UP WELL ON THIS.
OVERALL...EXPECT COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS TO DIMINISH TO SCATTERED
AFTER 21Z...AS AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT
SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING NORTH INTO NRN VA/DELMARVA REGION.
FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM THE UPPER
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO 2.00". CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING ONE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER ERN/NE NC AND THIS
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE OUTER BANKS. ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE SKIES AVG
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NOTHING ON THE RADAR.WITH THE FRONT VERY
WEAK AND SLIDING N...AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR W AND FILLING
IN/HEIGHTS RISING THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO). A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT
OF FEATURES LATER TODAY (GFS HITTING SEABREEZE HARDER WHILE THE
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE FARTHER INLAND). FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TSTM WORDING THIS AFTN...MAINLY AFTER 18Z WITH POPS
40-50% MOST AREAS (HIGHEST FAR NW AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SE). MAY RAISE POPS TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SOME CELL TRAINING/BACK-
BUILDING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION TO THE MEAN FLOW FROM 600-850MB
(LOW MBE VALUES). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT
NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO. VRB
CLDS- PCLDY TODAY...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND
90F SE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARY ECG/ORF/PHF FROM 18Z THROUGH
23Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO RIC AND SBY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN IFR VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES
ESPECIALLY AT ORF...PHF AND ECG BETWEEN 18Z TO 23Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FASTER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL EVENINGS.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. JUST
ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/JAO
MARINE...TMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

721 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED DRYING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO NRN LOWER MI SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY FLOW
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH UPPER MI. THIS HAS BROUGHT COOL AIR INTO
THE AREA WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S. VIS LOOP SHOWED AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF BU MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILLL BRING VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. EXPECT TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WAS INCLUDED.

WED...SUNSHINE WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 800 MB WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE PRIMARILY
TEMPS THRU FRI AND THEN POPS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
RIDING OVER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS/ASSOCIATED WARM FNT IN THE
UPR MIDWEST. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THRU THE LONGER TERM AS
THE UPR RDG BLDS OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR W
THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS NEXT WEEK...COOLER WX MAY RETURN THEN.

WED NGT/THU...DISTURBANCE RIDING THRU THE FASTER NRN BRANCH FLOW
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRAG A WEAK LO PRES TROF/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH ACROSS THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF LINGERING SFC HI PRES
RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THE BULK
OF THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
NW ONTARIO AND THERE WL BE ONLY MARGINAL MSTR INFLOW INTO THE UPR
LKS AHEAD OF THE TROF...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA. A
BIT STRONGER WSW FLOW AND HIER PWAT APRCHG AN INCH WL MAKE FOR A
MUCH WARMER NGT ON WED NGT. WITH H85 TEMPS ON THU FCST IN THE 13-14C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS ON THU WL REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S AWAY FM LK
MODERATION.

THU NGT/FRI...UNDER REBOUNDING UPR HGTS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV
PASSING INTO QUEBEC AND N OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...SFC HI
PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LKS WL DOMINATE UPR MI WX AND BRING DRY
CONDITIONS. WSW FLOW ARND THE SFC HI TO THE S AND H85 TEMPS RISING
TO ABOUT 15-17C BY 00Z SAT SUPPORT A SLOW WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS
ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S AT SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FM MAINLY LK
MI COOLING...EVEN IF THERE IS AN INCRS IN HI CLD AS SOME MODELS HINT
TO THE N OF A WARM FNT DRIFTING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST.

WEEKEND...BLDG UPR RDG CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY W INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHRTWV RIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FNT SITUATED IN THE UPR MIDWEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV/LOCATION OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FNT AND AXIS OF PCPN. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z/12Z
ECMWF SHOWED A FARTHER S LOCATION OF THE FNT/PCPN WHILE THE 00Z
CNDN/12Z GFS MODELS FCST A FARTHER N POSITION AND RETURN OF
SHOWERS/TS AS EARLY AS LATE FRI NGT. THESE FARTHER N MODELS ALSO
INDICATE H85 TEMPS WL BE AT LEAST NEAR 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES ON LATE PERIOD/WARM SEASON FCST DETAILS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR RDG AXIS AMPLIFIES IN THE PLAINS...
TREND FOR THE UPR FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW MAY ALLOW CNDN HI
PRES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPR LKS AND PUSH COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR TO
THE S. BUT THERE ARE SGNFT DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THESE
EVENTS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY BRING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TS ON MON/TUE BEFORE THE STRONGER COLD FROPA...SO WL HOLD
ON TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AS HI PRES APPROACHES THE LAKE THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
UNDER 20 KTS. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER
STABILITY TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMER DOMINATING THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

421 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.

TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

148 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

738 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
WILL ALL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO LIFR TODAY...BEGINNING DURING
THE MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. AT
KSAW...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AS MDT TO
AT TIMES HVY SHRA ARRIVE. COULD BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. WIND SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT. COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX
LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1229 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL
INTO WESTERN WI AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX
FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH
METRO...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.

NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT EXITING INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND SHRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE A COLD
FRONT/FGEN REGION. THIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY WILL END THROUGH 00Z
TUE. FARTHER WEST...MVFR CIGS SHIFTING EAST...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING. HZ/FU ANOTHER ISSUE AS IT HAS BEEN BLOWN SOUTH OVER
WESTERN AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SMOKE IS ADVANCING
SOUTH...AND MAY CLEAR OUT DISSIPATE OVER THE WEST LATE. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN THE SMOKE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOKS
LIKE FOG WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. COULD SEE SOME INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE. WINDS N-NW
AN GUSTY WITH FROPA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
01Z MON. EXPECT VFR TUE.

KMSP...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END THROUGH 20Z-21Z WITH IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH 01Z TUE. MAY SEE A SMOKE
ISSUE INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL LEAVE 6SM HZ FOR NOW. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
AND TUE WITH NORTH WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
023>025.

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING KEAU AROUND 19Z. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF KEAU WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IFR/LOW MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON IN
THE SHOWERS AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15G25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

KMSP...CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHRA WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NNW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
023>025.

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FFA EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL INTO WESTERN WI
AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM. SOME COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE
NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH METRO...WITH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WITH CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CORES. A LARGER...ALBEIT LIGHTER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS LINE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AS WINDS BECOME NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KMSP...SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN AROUND 06Z WITH THE HEAVIEST ARRIVING
BETWEEN 07-10Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
023>025.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1051 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATE STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
VERTICAL TOTALS APPROACHING 27-30 DEG C. WITH SFC MOISTURE/THETA-E
SLOWLY CREEPING BACK IN...DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S AND H3
UPPER JET/DIFFLUENCE MOVING IN FROM THE W...MODIFIED 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING INDICATES FAVORABLE MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT AND SOME
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY E
OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO GRENADA. WITH BEST VERTICAL TOTALS PER
KLCH/KLIX SOUNDINGS AND HI-RES ARW/NMM AND HRRR INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT IN E/NE LA AND MOVING NE...ADJUSTED HWO/GRAPHICS TO
REFLECT THIS. TIMING LOOKS MAINLY IN THE MID AFTERNOON FOR
DEVELOPMENT BUT LEFT SOME POPS A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING STORMS. ADJUSTED POPS/QPF WESTWARD DUE TO HI-RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION IN REGION
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOK GOOD OVERALL IN THE
LOW 90S. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS IFR CIGS AT KGLH AND
KGWO. THESE SHOULD LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITES FOR LOCAL IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON. /SW/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...IT HAS BEEN A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. CURRENT SATELLITE AND
ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WHICH IS
REFLECTED BY THE MID 60 DEWPOINTS BEING OBSERVED. THIS IS ABOUT 1-3
DEGREES DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS THAT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS RESIDING OVER THE REGION...AND
LIKELY HAVING SOME CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER.

TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER AIR THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE DURING
THAT TIME MODELS(PARTICULARLY THE HI-RES SUITE) HAD NOT BEEN
DEPICTING THE EXPECTED WEATHER SCENARIO THE BEST...THEY WERE A LOT
WETTER/MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT IS BEING SHOWN FOR TODAY. THIS LENDS
SOME CONFIDENCE THAT COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. IN
FACT...ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE SSEO INDICATE THE BEST LOCATION
FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
WITH LOWER POPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT MORE CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WAIT
UNTIL AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP AS CURRENT DRY AIR SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A
BIT MOISTER AIR AS DEPICTED BY AN INCREASE IN THETA-E VALUES AND PW
VALUES(EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON). IN TERMS OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE GREAT TODAY THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM GIVEN
VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 27-29C AND CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG AMONG OTHER
PARAMETERS. HAVE KEPT THE LIMITED RISK IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS BUT WILL
SHRINK THE AREA TO BETTER FIT WHERE STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A CONDITIONAL RISK AS
PARAMETERS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR A STRONG STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING ANY CONVECTION IS LOWER.

AFTER TODAY RAIN CHANCES START TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STALLED FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO GET WARMER. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. /JC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

INCREASING HEAT AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEST DESCRIBE THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST. NWP GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS
WE GO FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HAVE STUCK WITH THE LOW GUIDANCE POPS GIVEN RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR/LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA)/ WELL-MIXED RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER LAYER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. WITH THAT SAID...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
FOR A SOLID RIDGE IN MID JULY (H500 TEMPS ~ -8 DEG C) AND COMBINED
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HEAT SHOULD RESULT RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SO STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE.

MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN TO KEEP TSTM
COVERAGE LIMITED. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO REACH THE MID
90S...IT LOOKS LIKE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 F RANGE WILL BE MORE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DELTA REGION. THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /EC/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 72 92 73 / 22 16 8 8
MERIDIAN 90 70 91 70 / 30 16 5 3
VICKSBURG 91 72 92 73 / 18 12 7 8
HATTIESBURG 93 73 92 73 / 21 16 6 10
NATCHEZ 89 74 91 74 / 16 12 9 9
GREENVILLE 90 74 92 74 / 21 12 3 8
GREENWOOD 88 70 90 73 / 22 16 6 6

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DC/SW/JC/EC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EVENING LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DISSIPATING DIURNAL CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GREATER MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS BY THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE RAP THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS, THEN
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK PETURBATION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 3000-7000 FT LAYER AND ATTENDANT THERMAL AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE 07-15Z TIME
FRAME. I HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS IN MIND. OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT AND A
RATHER WARM DAY IS ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY. THE MODELS NOW ALL HAVE
A BIT SLOWER PROGRESS WITH THE COLD FRONT, NOT ENTERING FAR
NORTHWEST MO UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THIS SLOWER SPEED
AND LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST WAA REGIME, I EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 90. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE BROAD WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.

GLASS

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY
FOCUS WITH THE MODELS HAVING SOME GROWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME
FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND WHERE THE FRONT MAY LIE. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST AGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUSH EARLY ON THEN WAVERS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DON`T MOVE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN WAVER IT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WAVES MOVE ALONG IT, FINALLY
PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE REGION SPANNING
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND A BROAD REGION OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ONCE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE REGION A BIT BETTER.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.

GLASS

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER BETWEEN 4-6SM FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. I THINK THERE`S TOO MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TO
SUPPORT FOG MUCH THICKER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...NOTICED THAT KUNO
CAME IN WITH AN 800FT CEILING AT 0435Z. EXPECT THESE IFR CEILINGS
TO SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT
REALLY SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET BEFORE
SUNRISE, BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ARE DEFINITELY UNDER
THE GUN. MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE TOO INTERESTED IN
SPREADING THE CEILINGS AS FAR NORTH AS I-70, BUT I CAN`T RULE IT
OUT. STRATUS AND FOG/HAZE SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 1-3 HOURS OF
SUNRISE. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE WIDE-SPREAD NATURE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
REMAINDER OF MONDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, MOST
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
EVENING...MOSTLY OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VSBY AT LAMBERT TO WAVER BETWEEN 5-6SM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STRATUS WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY MOVE UP TO OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINAL BY SUNRISE, BUT THE CHANCE THIS WILL HAPPEN DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT A CEILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING...BUT LIKE THE STRATUS IT LOOKS LIKE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BECOMING GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY 30% AT BEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE`S ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

CARNEY

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

926 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THIS
MORNINGS UPDATE. NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO HOLD A
STRATUS DECK ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF BUT SATELLITE IS SHOWING THIS
TO BE BREAKING UP SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED. SATELLITE AND OBS STILL
SHOW SOME AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.
HAZE IS ALSO BEING REPORTED AND OBSERVED ACROSS SOME AREAS. IN
ADDITION...REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS AS RADAR IS CLEAR AND LOWERED POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE FOR THE MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR
THE ABOVE HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LOW...WAS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH NE MT.
THIS ENERGY WAS COMBINING WITH LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
SHOWERS AND SHOWED THEM INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SE MT AROUND
12Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED SATURATED LOW TO MID LAYERS FROM KBIL S
AND E THIS MORNING...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND KBIL
TO CHANCE POPS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY E AND OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...WHERE THE BEST LIFT FROM THE WAVE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT
STRATUS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...THEN
SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED-V IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO JUST
BELOW 700 MB. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE SREF. LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SMOKE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BASED ON THE ABOVE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEPT SMOKE IN THE GRIDS DUE TO THE CONTINUED
LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASED MIXING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE SE ZONES. SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A STRONG WAVE
MOVING E THROUGH WY. THE WY WAVE WILL HELP PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
N INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS...HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...INVERTED TROUGH...INCREASING MOISTURE
AND THE SREF SHOWING POSSIBLY 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. SIMILAR
PATTERN PERSISTS FOR TUE NIGHT AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER S
INTO THE AREA SO INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS. BETTER MIXING ON TUE
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SHEAR AND CAPES LOOK TOO WEAK
TUE/TUE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY WARM WEATHER
AND SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IT/S DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A 500-MB LOW LIFTING OUT OF CALIFORNIA AND
SHEARING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES MONTANA. THE 00
UTC ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE LAST SEVERAL GFS SOLUTIONS BY HAVING
THAT WAVE CUT THROUGH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS DESPITE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.

BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THAT MAY INCITE A MORE BONAFIDE WARMUP
OVER SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST STORM ACTIVITY
RELEGATED TO NORTHERN MT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THOUGH ANY SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE RIDGE/S AMPLIFICATION COULD CHANGE THAT. SCHULTZ

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND IN SOME CASES FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY UNTIL MID TO
LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SMOKE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THOUGH SOME LIGHT SMOKE MAY CONTINUE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT.
SCHULTZ/SINGER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 056/081 059/080 058/088 062/090 062/088 062/091
0/B 02/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 075 050/080 051/079 051/085 055/087 056/084 054/088
0/B 14/T 33/T 23/T 23/T 33/T 31/B
HDN 076 056/084 057/083 057/091 060/093 060/091 060/093
1/B 03/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
MLS 073 055/082 058/082 059/090 063/095 064/091 063/090
2/W 02/T 22/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
4BQ 073 055/081 057/082 058/088 063/094 063/090 062/090
2/W 03/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 070 052/077 055/079 055/085 061/093 061/089 061/087
2/W 03/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
SHR 070 052/078 053/077 054/084 056/087 056/086 056/089
2/W 13/T 42/T 22/T 23/T 22/T 21/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

630 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
NO SIGN OF SMOKE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING SO HAVE REMOVED IT
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE MT WHERE N SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP AREAS OF SMOKE OVER THIS PART OF THE REGION. ALSO
ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500` WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE ZERO. ADDED FOG TO A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS AS
WELL...BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS. HAVE THE FOG IN THROUGH
15Z. ARTHUR

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

.AVIATION...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 056/081 059/080 058/088 062/090 062/088 062/091
2/W 02/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 075 050/080 051/079 051/085 055/087 056/084 054/088
0/B 14/T 33/T 23/T 23/T 33/T 31/B
HDN 076 056/084 057/083 057/091 060/093 060/091 060/093
2/W 03/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
MLS 073 055/082 058/082 059/090 063/095 064/091 063/090
3/W 02/T 22/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
4BQ 073 055/081 057/082 058/088 063/094 063/090 062/090
4/W 03/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 070 052/077 055/079 055/085 061/093 061/089 061/087
3/W 03/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
SHR 070 052/078 053/077 054/084 056/087 056/086 056/089
3/W 13/T 42/T 22/T 23/T 22/T 21/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

310 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

.AVIATION...

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND SMOKE ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LIFT AND IN MANY AREAS SCATTER OUT BY 18
UTC...AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE WILL DIMINISH TOO.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EVEN
THOUGH SOME LIGHT SMOKE OR HAZE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. SCHULTZ

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 056/081 059/080 058/088 062/090 062/088 062/091
2/W 02/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 075 050/080 051/079 051/085 055/087 056/084 054/088
0/K 14/T 33/T 23/T 23/T 33/T 31/B
HDN 076 056/084 057/083 057/091 060/093 060/091 060/093
2/W 03/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
MLS 073 055/082 058/082 059/090 063/095 064/091 063/090
3/W 02/T 22/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
4BQ 073 055/081 057/082 058/088 063/094 063/090 062/090
4/W 03/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 070 052/077 055/079 055/085 061/093 061/089 061/087
3/W 03/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
SHR 070 052/078 053/077 054/084 056/087 056/086 056/089
3/W 13/T 42/T 22/T 23/T 22/T 21/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1216 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE EVENING COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH STORMS...THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CHCS FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE PROGRESSING FRONT. ONCE BOUNDARY
MOVES THRU WINDS WILL TRANSITION NORTHERLY AND INCREASE. THE
BETTER PRESSURE RISES OCCUR IN THE AFTN/EVE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES. CIGS LOOK TO
BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS BUT MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
IFR CIGS AND WILL MONITOR.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE EVENING COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN ISSUE IS A WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE TIME
STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CAN FORM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITH THE COLD FRONT/SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY.

AT 12Z...H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A BROAD TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
H7 MOISTURE WAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE H7 TROF WITH 2 TO 4 DEG H7
DEWPOINTS. 12Z H85 DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN TO 12 TO 14 DEG C ACROSS
THE STATE. MORNING CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DISSIPATED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES.

SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOW HIGHEST MLCAPE TORWARD FAIRBURY AND
LINCOLN AND THE WEAKEST CAP IS IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BUILDING IN TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE SHORT-TERM HIRES MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THIS
EVENING. THE RAP AND SPC HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH CAPE/WEAK CAP AREA. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IF STORMS BREAK
THE CAP...THE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THERE IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND OMEGA WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROF. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES WITH
THESE FEATURES...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA REMAINING WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 03Z...THEN SPREAD INTO
THE REST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE COLD FRONT. THROUGH
12Z...A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG IS FORECAST. DO MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE ZONE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
MORNING...ANOTHER PUSH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN THOUGH BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT TO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND RE-GENERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN WITH THE HIGH PWATS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NAM20 EVEN HAS A RARE 3
INCH BULLSEYE FOR PWAT NEAR FNB AT 00Z MONDAY EVENING. TRAINING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AREA POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STORM MOTIONS DO DROP DOWN
TO AROUND 15KTS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH A
RIDGE AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AND PERHAPS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL CENTER AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20-30KTS.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

1052 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL
START A TREND OF DRYING CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, GRIDS AND THUS THE
FORECAST WERE UPDATED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT TO KEEP IN THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOHAVE
COUNTY AS THE MOIST-DRY INTERFACE CONTINUES TO TOUCH OFF ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA. THIS AREA HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO SHUT DOWN AND SO IT
APPEARS THINGS HERE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DIMINISH.

FURTHER NORTH A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM NEAR MOAPA TO
PRIMM HAS PUSHED EAST GENERATING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH (LOCALLY
HIGHER) AS IT ROLLED ON THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A
RESULT, I ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ALLOW
FOR THIS ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD END IN ANOTHER HOUR SO AT MOST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR SKY
COVER ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON WHERE POPS WERE TWEAKED.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...A NICELY DEFINED MOIST-DRY INTERFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ON WATER VAPOR. WE
HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION FIRE ON THIS
MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING. THIS BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN INYO COUNTY TOWARD EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MOHAVE COUNTY. AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE ARE DONE WITH SEEING ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED NICELY. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MOHAVE
COUNTY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER TO WEAKEN ALTOGETHER IN
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THUS POPS WERE INCREASED HERE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO A LATER PERIOD TONIGHT FOR WESTERN
CLARK, SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTIES WHICH BASED ON
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK TO SEE ACTIVITY WORK ON
IN. FURTHER SOUTH, THE HRRR FORECASTS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN IN MOHAVE
COUNTY, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT LOOK ON RADAR, THIS ACTIVITY WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY GO LONGER THAN WHAT THE HRRR THINKS.

CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM EAST FROM ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SKY
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED UP FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW BUT IF ANY DO
WE COULD SEE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL REDUCED CIGS. THE BEST
TIME ON THIS WOULD BE THROUGH 08Z OR SO MONDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN THERE COULD BE A FEW SHRA AND TSRA ON MONDAY IN AND
AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY MAINLY AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 10K-15K FEET WITH LOWER BASES IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD
DECREASE GRADUALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z MONDAY. ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
BE EAST OF KTPH-KDRA-KEED LINE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR
ANY SHRA/TSRA WITH CIGS AND VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 20Z AND ENDING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z TUESDAY. FAVORED
AREAS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SHRA/TSRA MOVING
NORTHEAST. SCT-BKN CIGS MAINLY AOA 10-15K FEET WITH LOWER BASES NEAR
ANY SHRA/TSRA. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER IN AND NEAR ANY
SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 120 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT SEE ANY
SPECIFIC TRIGGER FOR STORMS OTHER THAN HEATING AND TERRAIN. A DRYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST TUESDAY WITH
JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR EAST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

903 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM EAST FROM ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SKY
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED UP FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 120 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1139 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO AS WINDS ALOFT TREND
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. WDLY SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH GENERALLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATION. SFC LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AFT 06Z WITH WIND SHIFT
INTO NE NM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS AFT
06/15Z...EVENTUALLY FOCUSING TSTMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND NE/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AREAS MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AFT 06/23Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION...924 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.UPDATE...
CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY EARLY AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LATEST HRRR
PROGS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS
ON MONDAY ACROSS NE/EC NM. VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION EXISTS...BUT
IN GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WOULD
PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY MEAN SLOW MOVING...TRAINING...
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES WILL ALSO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS IN
THE MTNS. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECTED A VERY BUSY DAY. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...357 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEP
RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WHILE A BIT LESS LIKELY THAN WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA. THEN ON MONDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS PROGGED TO HEAD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE AND PUSH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH AND WEST...MAKING IT AT LEAST
CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE BY WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER RISK SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING...THEN TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
WELL...A NICE CURVE BALL THROWN AT US BY MA NATURE RENDERED
ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO NEARLY THIRD OF THE STATE TOTALLY
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...DESPITE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF AZ. DECIDED TO TRIM THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK OUT OF THE
WATCH...WHILE KEEPING IT GOING ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM SE AZ...IT APPEARS IN
PART THAT THE 2 MCV/S THAT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND THE STORM STEERING FLOW TO
W AND NW OF ABQ HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY IMPLY WEAK
RIDGING THAT HAS DEVELOPED THERE. HRRR MODEL STILL DEVELOPS PRETTY
GOOD AMT OF CONVECTION TO W OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z
AND MOVES IT INTO THE JEMEZ WHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS DECENT
CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVE GENERALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
SO SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS NOTED.

MON TO TUE PERIOD STILL LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON AND FROM HIGHLANDS
JUST EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST TO THE DIVIDE DUE LARGELY
TO ADDED MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON NIGHT...RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. KEPT THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN WX GRIDS THROUGH
MON...THOUGH EXPANDED EAST SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT IN THE EARLIER
UPDATE. WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...POPS REDUCED A BIT. BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CHANCES ALONG WITH
WHAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPING TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL INDICATED
FOR WED...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK. FOR
LATE WEEK INTO SAT THE GFS STILL BULLISH FOR A DECENT BUT SOMEWHAT
NARROWER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND W NM...MAINTAINING DECENT TO VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. ECMWF MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL
EXPANDS UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE SOONER THAN THE GFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A POSSIBLE
DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE AND UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS MAY THEN
ARRIVE FOR LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WILL
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINFALL BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND REFOCUS MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE DIVIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/SANDIAS AND MANZANO MTS. GUSTY CANYON WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS WELL HOWEVER PEAK SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE REGULATED BY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES AND GENERALLY GOOD OR
BETTER VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND
BEGIN A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND. THE MAIN AXIS OF STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK AND FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN NM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND BACK INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S WHILE MAX TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

GUYER

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-523-527>535.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

339 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO
CREATE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITYWILL BUILD LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH CONTINUED TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... DEEP CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR FAILED TO
DEVELOP TODAY. SHALLOWER EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP
BRIEFLY ALONG THE NC SEABREEZE AND AT THIS TIME OVER SC SEA
BREEZE. PIEDMONT TROUGH ALSO SEEING SIMILARLY SCANT ACTIVITY.
GIVEN THAT THE NORMAL DIURNAL PEAK IS UPON US AND IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY REAL FORCING LATER ON THIS IS PROBABLY IT. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN INSISTING THAT THE SEABREEZE CONTINUES TO BE PRODUCTIVE BUT
IS NOW FALLING A BIT BEHIND THE 8BALL IN BEING OVERDONE W ITS
INITIALIZATION. EVEN SO...IT IS JULY IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND
WE NEED A STRONGER CAP THAN THE PALTRY ONE IN THE CHS REFERENCED
THIS MORNING TO BRING A COMPLETELY DRY DAY SO THE SMALL POPS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALBEIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY THOUGH WE COULD SEE A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE GULF STREAM CONVECTION AFFECTED THE
VERY IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE
HIGHER THICKNESSES...BUT WILL HELP TO SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD...LIKELY
REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT AND DRIVE AFTN CONVECTION ALONG THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BOUNDARIES. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT MORE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE.
CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY EACH DAY...BUT CONTINUED SW WINDS
WILL KEEP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 75 EACH
NIGHT...FALLING FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTNS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE CLOSE OUT
ON THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ILLUSTRATE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EXTENDING BACK AS FAR WEST AS TEXAS. WITH INCREASING
HEIGHTS...FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO
MOVE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DROP SOUTH CLOSE TO
THE AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT WITH INCREASED POPS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH INTO MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES AS IN ADDITION TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOKING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RESULTANT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND.
COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NEAR THE COAST. CONVECTION WILL DIE
DIURNALLY THIS EVENING...WITH A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. SOME
CONVECTION MAY REFIRE TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT ON THE TIMING AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT BY
ABOUT 5 KTS AS A VERY WEAK LLJ DEVELOPS. EXPECTING NO WORSE THAN
ABOUT THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE THUS PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORIES OR
HEADLINES. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE
BUMP IN SPEED COULD CHANGE A FEW ZONES` FORECAST FROM 3 TO 4 FT TO
JUST A MAINLY 4 FT FCST AS THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT
GRADIENT DIMINISHES EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND SW WINDS TO PERSIST IN
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION THIS PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
10-15 KTS...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN/EVE DUE TO THE SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS OF 3-4
FT ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SW WIND WAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE
SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AS THE WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL SEE CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15
KTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE OF WAVE HEIGHTS...AS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH A BLEND OF WIND WAVES AND A
LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS COMING INTO PLAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MBB/DL
MARINE...JDW/MBB/SGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1030 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AT
THE COAST. DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE
IN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...JUST A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TWEAK TO POPS TODAY. DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT EAST-WEST
GRADIENT BUT LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z WRF NOT
TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN COVERAGE TODAY. WEAK INVERSION JUST ABOVE
700MB MAY BE TO BLAME ESP AS IT ADVECTS INTO THE AREA IN SWRLY FLOW.

AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE RISK THROUGH
MID MORNING LARGELY CONFINED TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND WEAKENS. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BYPASS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE
NW AND N. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED
FRONT TO OUR N WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING
TROUGHINESS TO OUR W TODAY. THEN THERE IS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING AND SLUGGISHLY MOVING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST AT THE COAST WITH THE AIRMASS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER AS YOU MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AND TRAIL THE POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE WELL
INLAND.

LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A LINGERING
RISK AT THE COAST WHERE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
MAY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAINLY MID
80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THESE TEMPS ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. SOME STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE WILL RUN
ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP OVER 1.8 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW GREATEST MOISTURE ABOVE H30
AND THEREFORE THINK THERE WILL BE CIRRUS STREAMING UP THROUGH THE
AREA BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS. OVERALL COUNTING
ON SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND SOME
DIURNALLY FORCED CU AND AN ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR FURTHER
INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRI IT WILL BE
SPRAWLED FROM WEST TO EAST EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EAST OVER TO
BERMUDA. LOOKS LIKE H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURS INTO FRI WITH A
FALLING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND KEEP LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION MAINLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND FURTHER INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A
GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THE
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING BY OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WED NIGHT INTO THURS WITH SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. THIS
MAY ACT TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND STEER ANY
DEBRIS CLOUDS OR STORMS EAST TOWARD THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE...WITH
PLENTY OF MID SUMMER SUNSHINE TO HELP. WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S MOST
PLACES...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND EXPECT SOME
SPOTS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT.

BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH STRONGER NW WINDS
DEVELOPING ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE
RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND MAY DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS MAY ACT
TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH OR MAKE THEM MORE VARIABLE AND
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PERHAPS A FEW COMING ASHORE AROUND BRUNSWICK
COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEPICT TOO MANY SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ALONG THE RESULTANT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TODAY...SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND... HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT WINDS
FROM DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...REACHING 4 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND UP
TO 5 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY BEYOND 12 NM. SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. A DECENT LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
THURS INTO FRI. A SHORTWAVE MAY ACT TO DRIVE A TROUGH EAST AND
COULD HELP TO VEER WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION BRIEFLY
BUT OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT A SPIKE IN WINDS AND WIND CHOP EACH AFTN
AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

650 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE RISK THROUGH
MID MORNING LARGELY CONFINED TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAINLY MID
80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THESE TEMPS ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

626 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...FROM S TO N.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND WEAKENS. THE BRUNT OF THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BYPASS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE NW AND N.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT TO OUR N WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE N. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING TROUGHINESS TO OUR W
TODAY. THEN THERE IS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND SLUGGISHLY MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAINLY MID
80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THESE TEMPS ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND...
HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM
DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...REACHING 4 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND UP
TO 5 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY BEYOND 12 NM. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
THURS INTO FRI. A SHORTWAVE MAY ACT TO DRIVE A TROUGH EAST AND
COULD HELP TO VEER WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION BRIEFLY
BUT OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT A SPIKE IN WINDS AND WIND CHOP EACH
AFTN AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AS THE AREA MOVES EAST. LATEST HRRR ITERATION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION WITH TIME WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SO...LOWERED CHANCES WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST IN MONTANA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE LATER TODAY. THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES NECESSARY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES OR WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. DID NOT
GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY...BUT DID CREATE A MUCH TIGHTER POP
GRADIENT. WE ALSO LIMITED THE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES EVEN
MORE...WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HELD ONTO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE RAP13 SHOWS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 6SM OR 7SM. KBIS AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINK NIGHTTIME INVERSION
SETTING UP WILL HELP VSBYS LOWER OR REMAIN LOW AND WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT CHANGING VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING
THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRIMMED POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE TIP OF THE FA.
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS QUITE A BIT OF THE SE FA. ALSO REMOVED
SEVERE THREAT FROM THE FAR SE. STILL SOME WEAK RETURNS LIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS N CENTRAL MN AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SMOKE BEGINNING TO REDUCE VSBY IN THE DVL
AREA AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS STILL DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING OUT AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN PICKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FIRST LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IMPACTING OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
80S WITH 60S DEW POINTS...BRINGING SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR OF
2500 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS
IMPROVED TO 40-45KTS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA. THE HRRR HAS STORMS NOT REDEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR 23Z...BY
WHICH POINT THE FRONT IS NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. THINK THIS IS A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE CONTINUES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MOSTLY
SHOWERS AS SHOWALTERS BECOME POSITIVE IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINK DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ONLY
A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT THINK THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT THERE
COULD BE A RETURN TO SMOKE IN THE AIR AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNDER WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE 70S. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. CURRENTLY THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC TROUGH LOOK QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
STILL FOR WEDNESDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER CONVECTION ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE DRY
AND WARMER AS OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE MENTION IN TAFS HOWEVER TOUGH TO DISCERN COVERAGE
AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NO CIGS ANTICIPATED BY MID MORNING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1034 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LINES/CELLS ARE MOVING MUCH QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS HOWEVER...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS IN TERMS FOR KEEPING
WATER ISSUES AT BAY FOR NOW. STILL...THE LONGEVITY OF THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN KEEP THE NECESSITY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN STALL OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...CONTINUING THE THEME OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN. WHILE VISIBILITIES CAN VARY IN
STORMS...THE WIND OVER 5KTS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM UP IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...AND KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR
CEILINGS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...THUS...PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH VCTS/CB AT TIMES IS THE
NORM FOR THIS FORECAST. BECAUSE IT BLANKETS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...MUST KEEP THE CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PERIODS OF NO WEATHER IN LATER
FORECASTS OR AMENDMENTS. NEED TO WATCH BKW CEILING FOR IFR. BRIEF
IFR IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER 00 THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

745 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED IN NATURE...CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNCHAINED...HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED
POP TIMINGS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN STALL OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...CONTINUING THE THEME OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN. WHILE VISIBILITIES CAN VARY IN
STORMS...THE WIND OVER 5KTS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM UP IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...AND KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR
CEILINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

AFTER 00 THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PENDLETON OR

925 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTED ACROSS THE DESCHUTES COUNTY LINE
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THESE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINED SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. SOME SMOKE WAS LINGERING OVER GRANT COUNTY AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPS THE PRESENT SHORT TERM DRY FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH
IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DROPPING THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTH OR NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR NORTH OF A MADRAS-SPRAY-LA GRANDE
LINE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVE WILD FIRES IN
PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECT SOME PATCHY SMOKE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE DAY ON MONDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHERN GRANT
COUNTY. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN
250-500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND -2 PRESENTLY. THE LATEST
19Z HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL DESCHUTES COUNTY BETWEEN NOW AND
00Z THIS EVENING...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH
AND OUT OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 04 TO 07Z THIS EVENING. THIS FITS WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND RATHER
QUIET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO MID-
50S MOUNTAINS. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER CENTRAL OREGON AS THE BAND OF CLOUDS LINGERS
OVER THIS AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
OREGON AND ESPECIALLY DESCHUTES COUNTY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST
OVER DESCHUTES COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER DESCHUTES COUNTY
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS REASON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 611 FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION). HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST...SWITCHING
THE FLOW TO NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 98-103 DEGREES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS...THIS IS ABOUT 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 77

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY
FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS AS
THE LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MUCH
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ML

FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MIGRATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN CHALLENGING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN FAR SE DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 60 PERCENT THAT
STORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED WITH 10+ STRIKES IN THE DESCHUTES
NATIONAL FOREST ON MONDAY...AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA (FIRE ZONE
611). THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THE SISTERS RANGER
DISTRICT...ALTHOUGH LAL 3 IS POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL AS THE TRACK
OF THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA TURNS SOUTH. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OREGON LATE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE LOW OPENS
AND DEVELOPS A BROAD TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT STORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WISTER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 64 97 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 68 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 65 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 64 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 60 99 65 99 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 57 94 58 95 / 0 10 10 10
LGD 55 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 56 95 58 98 / 0 10 10 10
DLS 68 101 68 100 / 0 0 0 0

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ611.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

97/97

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

537 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF REMNANT
UPPER LOW ON THE PA/OH BORDER. WEAK SHEAR AND NON-EXISTENT DCAPES
IMPLY A VERY LOW CHC OF SVR WX. MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE ISOLD FLOODING FROM ANY TRAINING TSRA. WET
GROUND/LOW FFG VALUES MAKE THE AREA ABNORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD AMTS OF 2+ INCHES
BTWN 21Z-03Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A FFA DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT.

EXPECT SHRA TO DWINDLE W/LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOCUS OF
REMAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG REMNANT LL
JET AND PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NEAR TERM MDLS
MOVE THIS FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 03Z...THEN EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION MUGGY WITH LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY BUT MAINLY RAIN-FREE. WARMING
TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP
LIMIT/CAP OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FAR NWRN PA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 07/00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW AMPLITUDE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES. AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE GIVEN DEGREE OF SPREAD AND MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THIS LARGELY
UNSETTLED AND RECENTLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY RETROGRESSION OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OFF THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCENTRL U.S. THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT WEEK/JULY 13TH AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM CA UPPER LOW
EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERLIES AND TEAMS WITH VORTEX OVER
HUDSON BAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL PA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
BECOMES WAVY AS IT STALLS OUT FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER/MASON DIXON
LINE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN THRU LATE WEEK MOST LKLY
DUE TO MCS REMNANTS OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS TRACKING EWD FROM
THE MID MS/OH VLY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT TIMING/LOCATION
AT THIS POINT. FWIW THE MODEL BIAS IS USUALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
MCS ACTIVITY. PCPN RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CA LOW ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES.

WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SENT 21Z TAF PACKAGE.

ADJUSTED TAFS BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDTIONS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.

EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS.

EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MID DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER
LAKES/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
AIRSPACE TUE NIGHT/WED BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR PA/MD BORDER
THURS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

517 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.

EXPECT SHRA TO DWINDLE W/LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOCUS OF
REMAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG REMNANT LL
JET AND PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NEAR TERM MDLS
MOVE THIS FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE
SUSQ VALLEY BY 03Z...THEN EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...LEAVING
THE REGION MUGGY WITH LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

FAR NWRN PA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.

EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

412 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MY CWA
AT THE CURRENT TIME. ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT OVER MD/VA STILL HAS ME
CONFIDENT THAT EVEN MY EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS HELPED
PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...SOME 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. RAP SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES IN THE 500-1000J RANGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE SEEM FAIRLY LOW. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MY FAR SERN ZONES FOR
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE. SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE
THERE...BUT AS OF MID DAY THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER SQUAT
AND NOT ORGANIZED.

MODEL BLENDED QPF OF A .25" TO .50" SEEMS REASONABLE FOR BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS IMPLY
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN PLACES WHERE SOME TRAINING OCCURS.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND 1HR FFG VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN THE HWO. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT MAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DWINDLE THIS EVENING...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AFTER WE
LOSE THE HEATING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE FALLING APART
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD SO OTHER THAN THE SHOWER CHANCES DROPPING
OFF...TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH LEAVING THE REGION MUGGY WITH
LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

FAR NWRN PA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.

EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

213 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MY CWA
AT THE CURRENT TIME. ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT OVER MD/VA STILL HAS ME
CONFIDENT THAT EVEN MY EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY BUT MAINLY RAIN-FREE. WARMING
TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP
LIMIT/CAP OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FAR NWRN PA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.

EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

458 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM...TEMPS WERE RUNNING ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN THE
TREND IN THE FCST...SO THAT WILL BE IMPROVED. OTHERWISE...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED ACROSS THE REGION AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

240 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

158 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE REALIGNED POPS TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHER UPSTATE/NE GA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR. STILL LOOKS LIKE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN DEFERENCE TO CAPE MINIMA ACROSS THAT AREA.

AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.

AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMPO
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT
KAND/KGSP/KGMU FROM 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT AVL AND HKY
SO WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR
SOME FOG AT KAVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S
TO LOWER TO AROUND 2 MILES AT KAVL IN FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1239 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST. POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING. DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS. MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA. IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT. PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS. OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH. ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION. THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1224 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE IS STILL AN EASY TO RECOGNIZE FAIRLY STRONG SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH SPC DEPICTION OF POTENTIAL AND GENERAL
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE
SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. SOME OF
THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING FAIRLY EARLY
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE CASE OF THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR THIS LOOKS TO BE DONE TOO EARLY AND TOO FAR
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MODERATE YET STILL
INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
BY THE WAY FOR THE TIME BEING HAS PROGRESSED SOMEWHAT FASTER
TOWARD THE AREA THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. I WOULD EXPECT A
SLOWDOWN DUE TO WAVE ACTION WHICH PROBABLY ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPICTED STRONGLY ON THE MODELS.
IN SHORT...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND THE SEVERE
THREAT FROM LATE EVENING ON...AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST...BUT WE
WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS THE END
OF THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SCATTERED
WINDS AND HAIL EARLY AND ESPECIALLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS
ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN...CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED QPF AND CURRENT FFG DO NOT SHOW A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE NORTHEAST APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION BEHAVES.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND REACH
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER MONDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WITH THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST...WITH 70
OR SO LOWS SOUTHEAST.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE COOL AND DRY REGIME WILL
HAVE TAKEN OVER AND THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD
HAVE ENDED. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD AND GET MARGINALLY
BREEZY...WHILE TEMPERATURES HANG IN THE 70S AND SKIES BRIGHTEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. COOL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID-LVL FLOW. THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASING HUMIDITY AND THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF LOW-
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES IN
DOUBT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FORECAST HOLDS
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...AND WE MAY BE PUSHING 90S IN
MANY AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH 12Z. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ039-040-
050-052>070.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001-002.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

625 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

UPDATE...

BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
NAM EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES FURTHER
SOUTH AND ALSO WENT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SENT. IN THE PROCESS
OF UPDATING THE ZONE FORECASTS...GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP THROUGH THIS REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING WEST TO EAST WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO
INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BETWEEN 3 AND
5 INCHES...LOCALLY MORE.

ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH MS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...BUT THINK THESE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

JCL

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OVER MISSOURI. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE NEW FOCUS FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THESE AREAS ARE PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO EXCEED 2.25
INCHES. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE REFOCUSING FURTHER
NORTH ALONG A RETREATING SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH
HPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ALIGN WELL WITH THE HPC MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND MLCAPES EXCEED 1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
AREAWIDE AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
EAST BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERALL...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
OCCURS AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SPREAD BACK OVER THESE AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO CREEP
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 100-105 WHICH WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALONG
ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO
SET UP AGAIN WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ALSO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING
TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

304 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
FOR TONIGHT...NEITHER THE RAP OR HRRR SHOW HARDLY ANY ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
OUR HEATING. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN CLOUDS MOVE IN
TOMORROW MORNING.

TOMORROW...WEAK RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT THE LATEST 12Z NAM
SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME. THE INCOMING FRONT TO OUR NORTH LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY SUPPRESS THE RIDING SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SUPPRESSING OF RIDGE AND FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL YIELD LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOUNDINGS
ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO GET PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING
ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW OVER THE PLAINS
PRODUCES A SW FLOW OVER THE MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER MS AND WEST TN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS FARTHER FROM THE RIDGE. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO TX...A N-NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING SOME UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 89 71 91 / 20 30 20 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 87 70 88 / 20 30 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 87 69 88 / 20 30 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 85 66 87 / 20 30 20 30

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SR/DGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

650 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHRA FROM JUST WEST OF KPEZ TO KCVB TO K5C1 TO KBMQ TO
KILE WILL DRIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KSAT AS SHRA ARE IN VCNTY TO
THIS AIRPORT...THOUGH THEY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM IT AND DISSIPATE IN
A COUPLE OF HOURS. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM K6R6 TO KSOA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
KDRT WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE TO MENTION THERE IF NEEDED. SKIES WILL
START OUT VFR. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
BRIEF IFR CIGS. THE STRATUS WILL MIX OUT LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY
WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR. A REPEAT OF THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 8 TO 14 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
14 TO 18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TSRA. SOME LLWS
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS NORTH OF VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTY
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO WANT TO DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS
THE CWA BUT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT AGREE.
CONTINUE TO CLOUD TOPS BELOW -75 DEGREES AS OF THE 22Z AND PLENTY
OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE UPDRAFTS OF THESE CELLS TO ANTICIPATE
THEIR LONGEVITY ENOUGH TO ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES FOR
TONIGHT AND INCREASED POPS A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD. DO THINK THE
DOWNTREND WILL BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WE SHOULD LOSE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT. ALSO...700 MB
MOISTURE DECREASES FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SO ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS WELL.

HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TOO WARM OUT WEST AS
WELL SO REPOPULATED OBS AND BLENDED INTO RAP TRENDS AS THESE HAD
THE CLOSEST HANDLE ON WHATS GOING ON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO HAS
WEAKENED WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. LOOKING
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS...SOME CLEARING IS UNDERWAY. RADAR DATA IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO DESTABILIZE
THE LOWER LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77
CORRIDOR. THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT GIVEN A
MOIST AXIS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL NOT MENTION A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
BEYOND 7 PM. ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN VAL VERDE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES...WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE/LL ALSO
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP. THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RETURN FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
INTO OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
OUR REGION THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WE/LL CALL
FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 92 75 93 73 / 10 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 92 75 92 73 / 10 - - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 74 91 73 / 10 - - 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 91 71 / 20 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 94 76 94 75 / 30 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 75 91 72 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 73 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 75 91 72 / 10 - - 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 92 75 91 74 / 10 - 0 - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 75 92 73 / 10 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 75 91 74 / 10 - 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

331 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...THE WORK WEEK IS ROARING TO A START. A COLD
FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST
ENTERING AMA AS OF 20Z. WE ALSO HAVE A SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIRD INGREDIENT...AMPLE MOISTURE. AS OF 20Z...WE ARE SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FIRING ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THERE IS THE SET UP.

THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BREAKOUT OF THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH SHOW A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST DURATION OF RAIN TO BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. HAVE PAID ATTENTION
TO ONE NOTABLE FEATURE PRESENT ON THE GFS AROUND THE 6Z TIME
PERIOD...AN ENHANCED AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA THAT
MAY PROVIDE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THE FRONT AND SFC LOW EXIT THE AREA...THUS TAKING WITH
IT THE RAINFALL. HAVE UPDATED THIS FORECAST TO HAVE THE DRYING TREND
START IN THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH BOTH OF THE EXITING FEATURES LATE
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP WILL STILL BE ONGOING LATE TUES/EARLY WED AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN LIFT BEHIND AN
ALREADY PASSED FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE TROF
LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH BY MID WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AND THIS FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST THRU LATE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WE SIT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND JUST EAST OF A TROF.
RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH THE CENTER OF THE 594 DM
HIGH RIGHT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE PLACING THE WEST TEXAS REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TERRAIN INFLUENCED CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE IN OUR
DIRECTION. UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.

ALDRICH

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 69 58 84 / 80 40 20 30
TULIA 61 68 59 82 / 80 50 30 30
PLAINVIEW 62 69 61 82 / 80 60 30 30
LEVELLAND 63 73 61 84 / 80 50 30 30
LUBBOCK 64 73 62 83 / 80 60 40 30
DENVER CITY 66 77 63 85 / 80 50 30 30
BROWNFIELD 64 76 62 85 / 80 60 30 30
CHILDRESS 66 73 64 85 / 90 80 50 30
SPUR 65 75 63 85 / 90 80 50 30
ASPERMONT 68 82 66 88 / 80 80 60 40

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ022>026-028>032-
034>038.

74/51

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1258 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND IT. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER AT ALL SITES AFTER 03Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING TUE. PREFRONTAL STORMS ALSO MAY
IMPACT KPVW AND KLBB THIS AFTN AS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
SCT STORMS AS DISTURBANCEH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS CROSSING THE AREA BY 22Z AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON
SATELLITE/RADAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WX CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE MOVE OUT OF A BENIGN WX PATTERN TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.

UA RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...THOUGH IT HAS FLATTENED QUITE A BIT THANKS TO AN UA
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS MOVED ESE FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS
DISTURBANCE THAT IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT. LOOKING CLOSER TO
HOME...SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SE SFC WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE CWA PER 08Z METARS. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE FA TO TRANSLATE NWRD AOA
DAYBREAK THUS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. PER 08Z METARS...THE STRATUS DECK WAS LOCATED AT AND SOUTH
OF MENARD TX WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE N-NW. IF THIS TRAJECTORY
PERSISTS AND THE CLOUD DECK HOLDS TOGETHER...IT MAY INDEED AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND SERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING.

LATER TODAY...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE PROSPECTS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ENDURING S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID TO
INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE BY PROGGED PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50-2.15 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING /DEWPOINTS NEARING THE 70S ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK/.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN AZ WILL PROGRESS
ENE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING LEADING TO
INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE ONLY THING MISSING IS A MESOSCALE
FEATURE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND UL SUPPORT. THIS IS
WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE FRONT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE AREA TODAY...BUT THE TIMING/SPEED OF THE FRONT IS IN
QUESTION. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAS THE FRONT AFFECTING
THE NWRN ZONES BY AOA 07/00Z /AND PUSHING SEWRD WITH TIME/...WITH
SIGNS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN...WRN...AND NWRN ZONES. ON THE OTHER-HAND...HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAS THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NWRN
ZONES BY AOA 06/18Z /WHICH IS A 6 HR DIFFERENCE FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF/ BUT IS ALSO EXHIBITING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE SAME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
QUITE IMPORTANT AS IT WILL DICTATE THE ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WILL ELECT TO HOLD ON TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
FROM 06/15-18Z...AND MAINTAIN THE EXPANSION OF POPS EWRD DURING THE
06/18-00Z TIME PERIOD. AFTN SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATING STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2.0 KJ/KG ACROSS THE
NRN AND NWRN ZONES DURING THE AFTN...DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW OF THOSE STORMS TO APPROACH STRONG LEVELS
/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS/...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS AS QUICK AS WHAT
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF ARE SHOWING...AS IT COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
BIT DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER RATHER WEAK SHEAR COULD
MITIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING THRU TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH
FROM GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL TO MORE OF A LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT...AS THE UA DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WHILST
THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS QUITE A BIT /PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-
2.00 INCH RANGE/. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...AND A RATHER WEAK MEAN-FLOW /COUPLED WITH
HIGH MOISTURE/ IS WHY THERE ARE HIGH CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL IS EVEN HIGHER IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS SLOWER SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD MEAN UL DYNAMICS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL
ALL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING-NIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT THEREFORE ARGUE
WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THE 07/00-12Z TIME-FRAME.
FURTHERMORE...THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A RAINFALL AMOUNT
RANGING FROM 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES TO MORE THAN 2.00
INCHES ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS VALID FOR 12Z TODAY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ANALYZE THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP TO DECIDE IF/WHEN THE DISSEMINATION OF A
FLOOD WATCH SHOULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS. /29

LONG TERM...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EDGING SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY...LIFTING VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFTING MORE INTO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY. FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY WITH BRISK NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES. WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THE WRF/NAM
DEPICTION DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
WE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER NONE THE LESS. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND
VERY INTENSE WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS. WE REMAIN CAUTIOUS THAT A LARGE MCS COULD TAKE FIRMER
CONTROL OF INGEST OF THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER PRECIPITATION FOCUS...BUT BETTER INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS WILL BE MORE INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY LATE TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN MENTION OF FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OBVIOUSLY WILL
REMAINED TUNED TO ADDITIONAL FORECAST TRENDS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A BREAK IN
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BUT A WEAKER TRAILING IMPULSE
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
LOOKS CAPABLE OF DRAGGING DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUS
CHANCES FOR THUNDER.

BEYOND THAT...UPPER HEIGHTS APPEAR POISED TO CLIMB FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH RIDGE CENTER BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE NUDGING FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY. MONSOONAL FETCH LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL THIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO STEER MOISTURE AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OUR WAY. SO FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY
AND WARMER. RMCQUEEN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 75 59 83 / 80 30 30 30
TULIA 64 72 59 81 / 80 50 30 30
PLAINVIEW 65 72 60 81 / 80 50 40 30
LEVELLAND 66 75 62 83 / 80 50 40 30
LUBBOCK 67 74 62 83 / 80 60 50 30
DENVER CITY 67 77 63 85 / 70 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 68 76 62 84 / 70 50 40 30
CHILDRESS 70 76 64 85 / 80 80 50 30
SPUR 71 76 63 84 / 60 80 60 30
ASPERMONT 74 81 66 87 / 50 80 70 40

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

626 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF KLBB IS MOVING
NORTH AND COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARDS KLBB AND KPVW LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT A TEMPO MVFR DECK MENTION AT
KLBB AND KPVW FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON /13-15 KT
SUSTAINED/. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT TO AFFECT ALL THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED A PREVAILING PRECIP MENTION AND
TRIED TO TIME THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR THE RAINFALL FOR EACH
TERMINAL. WITH THE STORMS WILL COME VARIABLE BREEZY WINDS. ONCE
AGAIN...THERE ARE HINTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW-SCT LOW VFR DECK HAS BEEN
INSERTED FOR NOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 63 75 59 / 60 80 30 30
TULIA 89 64 72 59 / 50 80 50 30
PLAINVIEW 90 65 72 60 / 40 80 50 40
LEVELLAND 91 66 75 62 / 40 80 50 40
LUBBOCK 92 67 74 62 / 30 80 60 50
DENVER CITY 91 67 77 63 / 40 70 40 40
BROWNFIELD 91 68 76 62 / 30 70 50 40
CHILDRESS 95 70 76 64 / 30 80 80 50
SPUR 92 71 76 63 / 20 60 80 60
ASPERMONT 94 74 81 66 / 10 50 80 70

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

29/29/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

405 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WX CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE MOVE OUT OF A BENIGN WX PATTERN TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EDGING SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY...LIFTING VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFTING MORE INTO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY. FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY WITH BRISK NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES. WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THE WRF/NAM
DEPICTION DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
WE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER NONE THE LESS. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND
VERY INTENSE WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS. WE REMAIN CAUTIOUS THAT A LARGE MCS COULD TAKE FIRMER
CONTROL OF INGEST OF THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER PRECIPITATION FOCUS...BUT BETTER INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS WILL BE MORE INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY LATE TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN MENTION OF FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OBVIOUSLY WILL
REMAINED TUNED TO ADDITIONAL FORECAST TRENDS.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

29/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

950 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AT 01Z/9PM COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINING MAINLY WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WORK INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON THE
LATEST LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP
STALL A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND
BORDER WEST TO OHIO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST FOR
THE MOST PART...BUT INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
TRIGGER A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PLACED THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST
WITH MARGINAL ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WAVERING SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL TRY TO MAKE INROADS
LATE WEDNESDAY...RETREATING THURSDAY...ONLY TO RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...BUT DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING ARE NOT THAT
CLEAR-CUT...ESP WHEN DEALING WITH A WAVERING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE TRACK FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER PER FASTER WESTERLIES ALOFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.
INCREASING INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER WIND ENVELOPE WILL ALSO
SUPPORT PULSE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING THURSDAY.
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WILL REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...AND TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE
SOUTH UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS PER INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD AID
IN ADIABATIC WARMING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH 85H TEMPS
APPROACHING +20 DEG C...SURFACE READING SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE L-M 90S PENDING SUNSHINE. WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL...PER THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD TEXAS/OKLAHOMA FOR THE WEEKEND THEN
EXPAND NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT
WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CARVE OUT FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MODELS
HINTING THIS FEATURE WILL CUTOFF OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TOO OR DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION PROMOTING DAILY THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PATH OF DEEP
CONVECTION LACKING. AS SUCH LONG TERM FORECAST REFLECTS A SHOTGUN
STANCE...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR GREATEST POPS/THUNDER COINCIDENT WITH PEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOTHING EXTREME...WILL FAVOR THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...THEN RETREAT TO SOMETHING NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL CONTINUED VFR EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE POSSIBLY PUSHING EAST BEFORE
FADING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. THIS MAY BRIEF MVFR TO
SPOTS WHERE WILL COVER WITH VCSH/VCTS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. OTHER
CONCERN WITH AXIS OF MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONT THAT COULD REACH THE KBLF/KLWB VICINITY AROUND MIDNIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING. HOWEVER THIS AREA OF SHRA MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP SOME PREVAILING SHRA MENTION OVER THE FAR
WEST. FOG THE OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT ESPCLY WHERE SOME RAIN HAS OR
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR OVER
THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH DENSE FOG OUTSIDE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL SO KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY MVFR AT KLWB/KBCB WITH A BRIEF
INCLUSION AT KLYH/KBLF LATE. ANY FOG OR STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MID/LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS MIXING INCREASES WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPSTREAM FRONT MOVES CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY AND OLD OUTFLOW
HEADS EAST...THE RISK FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ESPCLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN EITHER A PREVAILING VFR MENTION
FOR SHRA OR VCTS FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT ALL LOCATIONS
EXCLUDING KDAN WHERE SHOULD BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WV/MD BORDER WEST TO OHIO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY THREAT FOR
MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
THAT OF WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF BRIEF ROUNDS
OF MVFR/IFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

718 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS AFTERNOONS SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH LIS AROUND
MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. SFC BASED CAPES ARE RESPECTIVE AT 1000 TO 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED US IN GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN ANY CASE...ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINING WEST OF US. BUT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WORK INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THIS EVENING
THEN GFS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/RAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

136 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1205 PM EDT MONDAY EDT...

ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS AXIS FURTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WHICH LEANED CLOSEST TO 14Z HRRR. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE BREAKS AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

AS OF 933 AM MONDAY EDT...

UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT WSR-88D
TRENDS AND SHAPED LATE MORNING POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK WRFARW.
IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WITH
HIGH PWATS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. RAISED
QPF FOR TODAY. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
MADE MINOR CHANGES FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY...

AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TODAY. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF STORMS SHOULD
LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT.

POPS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS.
BASICALLY KEEP CHANCE/LOW LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY INTO THE SW VA MTNS/FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTH AND EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A TROUGH AND
SHEARING OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INTO NRN VA/ERN WV...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING. ONE
AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF
LYNCHBURG.

OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
THE NC COUNTIES TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. MAY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE
SOUTH TODAY THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP. MOS BLEND USED WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECT THE PATTERN TO WARM UP THIS PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AND END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TUESDAY
SHOULD BE OUR DRIER DAY THOUGH HOTTER...AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD WV/KY BY WEDNESDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS
WITH LITTLE TO NONE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL HANG ONTO
ISOLATED THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS.

WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT
500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA.

FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO OUR LAST FORECAST TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST...THEN
WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST PER HIGHER POPS...BUT
STILL WARM/SEASONAL WITH 80 TO 85...BUT STILL AROUND 90 OUT EAST.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO PENNNSYLVANIA LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED EARLY BEFORE POTENTIAL FOG ROLLS IN OVERNIGHT.
LOCATIONS WHICH RECIEVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ARE
LWB...BCB AND LYH AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD
OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION PER BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY
THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1205 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1205 PM EDT MONDAY EDT...

AS OF 933 AM MONDAY EDT...

AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...

WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT
500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOG HAS BEEN IN AND OUT AT SOME TAF SITES...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR LESS FOG...THOUGH THE DENSE FOG NEAR BCB/LWB IS NOT
FAR FROM THE AIRPORT.

KEPT CIGS SUB VFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
BCB/ROA/LWB/BLF...WITH SOME VFR TURNING UP BY MIDDAY OUT EAST..AND
OVER THE MTNS AFTER 17Z-18Z.

OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED
NORTH OF A BLF-LYH LINE...AND STILL HARD TO PINPOINT ANY ONE TIME
TO HAVE PREDOMINANT RAINFALL IN THE TAFS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW PIVOTS NE INTO PA LATER TONIGHT AND WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE WITH VFR EXPECTED EARLY BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOG ROLLS IN OVER AT LEAST LWB/BCB AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD
OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

933 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 933 AM MONDAY EDT...

AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...

WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT
500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOG HAS BEEN IN AND OUT AT SOME TAF SITES...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR LESS FOG...THOUGH THE DENSE FOG NEAR BCB/LWB IS NOT
FAR FROM THE AIRPORT.

KEPT CIGS SUB VFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
BCB/ROA/LWB/BLF...WITH SOME VFR TURNING UP BY MIDDAY OUT EAST..AND
OVER THE MTNS AFTER 17Z-18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD
OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH CONVECTION INTO
TONIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW FFG IN THE WEST. RAINFALL RATES...MOVEMENT
AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE KEY ITEMS TO MONITOR. TRAINING OF
ECHOES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER SATURATED GROUND WILL BE OF HIGH
CONCERN. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ALSO HIGHLIGHTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SEVERE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CWA
WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

UPPER LOW OVER WAS OVER THE WEST VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY BORDER AT
23Z/7PM AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND WILL LIFT
NORTH AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. LEANED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...ARW AND CONTINUITY...THEN
TRIM BACK POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND
FROM THE WEST. ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
START WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND SHIFT POPS AXIS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY. ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUNDAYS
CONVECTION AND LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WANE MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

DON`T BLINK. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CONUS
WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN STALL EAST-WEST ALONG THE
MASON DIXON FOR MID WEEK.

MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MID-WEST ON TUESDAY. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY STRONG
CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT REACH OUR FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING
TUESDAY OR SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE
THEN STRENGTH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS ROBUST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE STORMS
FALLING APART AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BLOCK SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF FRONT...HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE OF AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...ESP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL TREND WARMER...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS ANTICIPATED PER INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD AID IN ADIABATIC WARMING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH 85H TEMPS APPROACHING +20 DEG C...SURFACE
READING SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE L-M
90S PENDING SUNSHINE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AVERAGE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

RADAR MAINTAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG A ROA-LWB LINE TIL
09Z...THEN SHIFTING IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. NOT THINKING THUNDER AS
STABILITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH
ROA/LWB TO ACCOUNT FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CASE WILL BE WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALLOW CIGS TO INCREASE.

OVERALL THOUGH...THINK THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE ARE GOOD...THANKS TO HIGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS AND WINDS STAYING LIGHT. LOW CIGS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
THAN FOG WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

UPPER LOW SHIFTS FROM WV TO PA TODAY AND WEAKENS. MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
LWB-ROA-DAN NORTHEAST. ATTM WILL LEAVE VCSH IN...AND THINK AFTER
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG...VFR CIGS TO TAKE US FROM MID-LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING FROM LWB TO LYH.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF
VFR WX ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

624 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

PRETTY QUIET PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE 07.17Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 10 KNOTS OR
GREATER CREATING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND IT ALSO
DOES NOT PRODUCE SATURATION AT THE SURFACE KEEPING A 3C TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREAD. THESE SIGNALS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG TO
FORM AND THE AVIATION FORECASTER ALSO IS NOT ENTHUSED ABOUT
FOG...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE NOW IN
CONSENSUS AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE RAIN ALSO STAYING TO THE SOUTH. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD MOVED TO A DRY SOLUTION AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REMAIN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SPREAD ON THE
TIMING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 07.12Z ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BRINGING IT ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE 07.12Z GFS AND GEM LOOK TO BE MUCH
WEAKER WITH IT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN...DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING
WITH THE GFS BLOWING IT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF JUST STARTS TO GET IT TO THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HOLDS IT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. WITH THESE
INCONSISTENCIES...HELD THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT OR LOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS
SIGNAL THAT THE REMAINS OF THE CURRENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DAYTIME CUMULUS TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SUN THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY PERIODS OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO 10 KFT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
VERY DRY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP BCFG FROM
08.09Z-08.14Z AT KLSE FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE IT WITH
THE 07.06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THERMAL CUMULUS AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CEILINGS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 3500 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.

2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.

3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.

4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.

THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT. WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY. AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES. THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.

3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.

4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. LOOK FOR PREVALENT SHRA/TS AT KLSE AND KRST THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THEN CLEARING THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE...PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AT KRST AND 04Z AT KLSE AS
DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MARINE...

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

.MARINE...

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

.BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

337 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SYNOPTIC
SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC PROVIDING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS.

BY THURSDAY A TUTT LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...UNDERNEATH THE STRONG
DEEP LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN
AIDE IN GENTLY PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
AS IT DOES...IT WILL ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO
COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO FILTER
IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AS PWATS PLUMMET AROUND 1.4 INCHES OR JUST BELOW...NEAR THE
10TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING AND ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FINALLY PUSHES WELL TO THE WEST AND
SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A BROAD H5 TROUGH TO
SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BECAUSE OF THIS
AND THE DEPARTURE OF UPPER RIDGING...FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THIS NEW FLOW PATTERN
ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS MAY
BE THE MORE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH
WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS
STREAMING INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE
PLACED VCSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AT ALL EAST COAST
SITES. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

.MARINE...
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES TO THE WEST.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 90 79 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 89 80 / 10 30 20 20
MIAMI 92 79 90 80 / 20 30 20 20
NAPLES 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

156 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT AFFECTED THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST HAVE MOSTLY ENDED. THERE IS ONE LARGE CELL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE METRO AREA OF SOUTHERN BROWARD
AND NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CELL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MIAMI-
DADE AND POSSIBLY BROWARD METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A CONVERGENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF GRAND BAHAMA OVER THE
NORTHEAST REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TUTT LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MEANDER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN GET STRETCHED
EAST/WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...OR AROUND THE 10TH-25TH PERCENTILE. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EACH MORNING BELOW THE INVERSION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. DRY AIR AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REGION. HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND EAST COAST TROUGHING TRIES TO DEVELOP.

MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS BELOW 3 FT WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 91 80 91 80 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 93 75 93 75 / 60 30 40 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

354 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST WITH MODEL PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG
THE SEABREEZE BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE FA WHILE THE 00Z SPC
WRF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE HRRR WITH POPS AROUND 20. RISING THICKNESSES WILL PROMOTE
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. MILD LOWS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE
CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...WITH THE ONLY REAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BEING ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME EAST. DRY AND MILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONTINUED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AT BEST EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
CLOSE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 90S. EVEN WITH THE HIGH PUSHING FURTHER WESTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW
THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A
WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER IMPULSES...OR
SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POPS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL A DEGREE
OR SO EACH AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS SHOW
SOME LOW-LEVEL MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
FOG. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE AT OGB WHERE THE ADDED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER VALLEY AND RECENT RAIN MAY HELP SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO A
DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE
COAST WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. A FEW
STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BUT EXPECT OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF
THE FA WHILE THE 00Z SPC WRF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WITH POPS AROUND 20.
RISING THICKNESSES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S. BY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER IMPULSES...OR SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

333 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE WERE A FEW NOCTURNALTHUNDERSTORMS...OVER
EAST CENTRAL CAMAS COUNTY AROUND 2 AM MDT AND STEENS MTN AROUND
MIDNIGHT PDT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR SHOW THE CENTRAL ID
ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO PIH/S AREA BY 6 AM AND AN INCREASE IN
STORMS NEAR THE NV BORDER. WATERVAPOR IMAGE SHOWS LARGE SCALE
TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH NE OREGON AND THE ID PANHANDLE AS WELL AS A
MOIST AXIS ACROSS N NV LIFTING SLOWLY N. THIS MOIST AXIS IS ON THE
N FLANK OF A COASTAL LOW. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
WILL GET AS FAR S AS KBKE-KMYL AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND THAT THE MOIST
AXIS WILL LIFT TO SRN PARTS OF OREGON AND IDAHO AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE NEARER THE
NV BORDER AND CENTRAL ID. STORMS AGAIN WILL HAVE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WORKING
WITH PWAT AROUND ONE INCH.

LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL UPPER LOW MOVES
INLAND...SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO...TO GENERALLY ACROSS KBNO-KBKE-KMYL THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY MILD IN THE 60S VALLEY AND 40S TO 50S
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AROUND
90 VALLEYS AND MID 70S TO 80S MTNS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
GREATEST THREAT PF STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE NECK OF THE COASTAL
TO CALIFORNIA LOW...ACROSS OREGON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 90-95TH
PERCENTILE AT BOISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE 10-
20KT SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS AND STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS AND A THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE STORM CHARACTER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SHEAR ALOFT AND THREATS WILL
MAINLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SE OF A LINE FROM
KBOI-KSNT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBOI-KMYL THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOUNTAINS NEAR KBKE. SURFACE WINDS...12KT OR LESS...EXCEPT ERRATIC
GUSTS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...GENERALLY EASTERLY 5-10KT.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
ORZ636-637.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

324 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

1021MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
EVIDENCED BY 08Z/3AM DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...REACHING SAINT LOUIS
BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS ALREADY SHOW
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...HOWEVER
PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY NE FLOW AS IT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY
FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. MOST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY. AS
THE AIRMASS MOISTENS...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE
AT A MINIMUM. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 60S. IN FACT...THESE
READINGS WILL LIKELY BREAK PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE HEART OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THIS PARTICULAR TRACK...LOCATIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL PUNCH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA
COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 4KM NAM. HAVE THEREFORE HIT THUNDER HARDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...WITH JUST ISOLATED MENTION
ELSEWHERE. TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY/TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 1.50 INCHES...BUT WILL BE LIGHTER NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE
WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. HAVE HUNG ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN CASE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
STRONGEST WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS WEST
OF I-55 OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER EAST...POPS DECREASE TO JUST
LOW CHANCE ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER EXACT STRENGTH OF RIDGE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IT
STILL APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MAIN
STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION MAY BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM THE
PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD AND A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF
SITES WHILE LARGE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL IL NE.
6-8K FT CEILINGS AT SPI AND DEC WHILE CEILINGS DROP OFF TO
1.5-4.5K FROM MACOMB TO LITCHFIELD TO EFFINGHAM SW. THESE LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK NE
ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING OVERNIGHT...REACHING SPI IN 1-2 HOURS AND
TO I-74 LATE TONIGHT. HRRR AND RAP MODELS HAVE TRENDED 1-2 HOURS
QUICKER WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING BACK NE BUT HESITANT ABOUT
THIS DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO MID 50S THAT HAS ADVECTED
INTO CENTRAL IL ON NE FLOW. EVENTUALLY BROUGHT IN IFR TO LOW END
MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT OR WED MORNING WITH VSBYS 2-4 MILES IN
RAIN SHOWERS DURING WED AND WED EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD
PUSHED SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND SE MO AND EXTENDED TO WEAK
1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR TX/OK BORDER. LOW PRESSURE TO
TRACK NE ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING WED EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWER EXPECTED WED/WED EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF I-72 (SOUTH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK) SO WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
ENE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURNING
DURING OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT. AREAS FROM GALESBURG...PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON WILL LIKELY
STAY DRY MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL RAIN SHOWERS HOLDING OFF TIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NE CWA WILL ALLOW
COOLER LOWS IN LOW TO MID 50S FROM LINCOLN NE WHILE MILDER LOWER
60S FOR LOWS IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE SKIES STAY CLOUDY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO SE MO AND CONNECTED
TO 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR OK/TX
BORDER. LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK TRACK INTO NE OK/SW OK WED MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO RETURN SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY WED AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WED AND WED NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL 1 INCH
RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH OF I-72.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WELL DEFINED MCV FEATURE NOW OFF INTO INDIANA. STILL SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES AROUND 80
DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LAWRENCEVILLE...BUT HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA NEAR CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE.
RATHER THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT LOW CLOUDS
GIVING WAY INTO MORE DIURNAL-TYPE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

STILL QUITE A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOWING AN OVERALL NORTHWARD SHIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WILL LINGER CHANCE
POP`S SOUTH OF I-70 THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING THEM BACK TO THE
LIKELY (60%) RANGE AFTER 3 AM. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS
I-72 BY SUNRISE...BUT WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA DRY
OVERNIGHT. THAT AREA WILL SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH OF PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON. LOWS 55-60
WILL BE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH LOWER 60S
SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST
WITH PW VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WED TO WED NIGHT PERIOD. GROUND IS VERY SOGGY STILL AND EVEN
THOUGH FFG GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 1.8 TO 2.3 INCHES IN AN HR FOR FLASH
FLOODING, AM CONCERNED THAT THESE NUMBER MAY BE A TAD TOO HIGH. SO
THINK WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A PROBLEM. SO...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR THE WHOLE CWA. MODELS PLACE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WHILE WPC PLACES
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-72. THEREFORE WHOLE CWA IS IN THE
WATCH.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE LOW PRESS AREA...BUT ALL FORECAST A
SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL IL. AFTER THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
THROUGH THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN...BUT A FRONT WILL LAY
OUT IN THE SOUTHERN IL AREA WHICH WILL KEEP A CHC OF POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST IL FOR THUR. THIS SEMI-DRY BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. GUIDANCE LOOKS
TOO COOL...EVEN WITH PCPN AND CLOUD COVER ALL DAY TOMORROW. GUIDANCE
LOOKS BETTER FOR THUR AND FRI.

FURTHER OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD BRING DEFINITE DRY PERIODS INTO
THE FORECAST...MAINLY DURING THE WEEKEND. ANY FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH AND MAY ONLY EFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. SO LOOKING
AT SAT AND SUN AS BEING DRY WITH SAT NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN IN
THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BREAK DOWN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE RETURN FOR MORE PCPN FOR MON AND TUE.

TEMPS WILL GET WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

249 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

FOR TODAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
STARTING TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE ROCKIES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. RAP SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY,
AND LATE DAY CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH BETTER SHEAR AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY BEING LOCATED
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN LATE DAY
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND FORCING EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTERM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPROVE NEAR THE NOSE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE WITH THIS SHIFTING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION NORTHWARD SO WILL KEEP THE TREND. THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF DODGE
CITY. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE OVER
EASTERN/NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION,
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
NAM CONTINUES TO ANY SUGGEST ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHILE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND HAS ONGOING
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY JUST NORTH OF GARDEN
AND DOGE CITY. OVERNIGHT HAZARD FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

ON THURSDAY ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON JUST HOW SOON GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS PERSISTENCE ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY ON THURSDAY
GIVEN WHERE THE 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOCATED AT 12Z
THURSDAY. DID TRIM CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

CLOUD COVER, ONGOING CONVECTION, AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ALL UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
WILL BE STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE
DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WHERE SOME AFTERNOON SUN DOES DEVELOP THE HIGHS COULD
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80.

A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL SET UP LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT BY LATE DAY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CONVECTION INITIATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG OR EVEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN
RETROGRADE/REDEVELOP FURTHER WEST. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH EVEN A FEW 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES BEING
POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BUT BUT NOT ABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A LATE DAY ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORM SOMEWHERE IN
WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY MID DAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AT GCK AND DDC AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 64 82 67 / 20 60 60 30
GCK 82 64 82 66 / 30 70 30 30
EHA 83 64 85 66 / 50 80 30 30
LBL 83 65 85 67 / 50 70 40 30
HYS 80 63 79 66 / 20 60 60 50
P28 81 66 85 69 / 30 60 60 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

207 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

FOR TODAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
STARTING TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE ROCKIES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. RAP SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY,
AND LATE DAY CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH BETTER SHEAR AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY BEING LOCATED
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN LATE DAY
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND FORCING EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPROVE NEAR THE NOSE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE WITH THIS SHIFTING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION NORTHWARD SO WILL KEEP THE TREND. THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF DODGE
CITY. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE OVER
EASTERN/NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION,
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ANY SUGGEST ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT HAZARD FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BE CONFINED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME FRAME AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH SITS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA. MODELS THEN SUGGEST
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES WESTWARD AND A DISTURBANCE RIDES UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE. CLIMBING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN THE 80S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS LOOK TO START OUT IN
THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

342 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH REGION STAYING DRY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT W/A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN MAINE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MAINE PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE NAM12 MESOCALE MODEL
ALONG W/THE HRRR 3KM MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS ALTHOUGH
THE TIMING WAS OFF BY 1 HOUR OR SO. LATEST LAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED
THINGS TO BE PRETTY STABLE. PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES RESIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS SETS UP THROUGH MIDDAY
ALLOWING. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KTS IS THERE. THEREFORE, BASED ON
THE SHEAR AND HIGH PWATS, SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING
COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED W/THE
FRONT, SO DECIDED TO YANK THE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA
COULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE W/THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF AS WINDS
VEER TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS THE COLUMN IS FORECAST TO
START DRYING OUT ABOVE 850 MBS BY 18Z OR SO. LAPSE RATES ARE
MEAGER AT BEST FOR INSTABILITY(6.0 C/KM). ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY
ISOLATED TSTMS FOR EASTERN HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. NO
ENHANCED WORDING. MAX QPF FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS BE AROUND 0.25
INCHES W/LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS GO WNW W/GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
CLEAR TONIGHT AND COOLER AND LESS HUMID W/WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS
HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE REGION. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT ON TEMPERATURE.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINE SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ON THURSDAY AND WILL
LEAD TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DOWN EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND
DEVELOPING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S DOWN EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AT NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING W/THE EXCEPTION
OF FVE(MVFR). EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO HAVE IFR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO MVFR. KBGR AND KBHB WILL HANG ON
TO IFR A WHILE LONGER AND THEN MVFR AS THEY WILL BE S OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON W/SW WINDS
VEERING TO A WNW DIRECTION. GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY NIGHT TIME FOG COULD
RESULT IN LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS ON THE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT ON
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

131 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. BASED ON THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ON TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT A LAYER
OF SMOKE ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY.

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

129 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECTING FRONT TO STALL N CNTRL WV TO NEAR TRI STATE VCNTY HTS TODAY...
THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT. FRONT OSCILLATING BACK SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LINES/CELLS ARE MOVING MUCH QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS HOWEVER...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS IN TERMS FOR KEEPING
WATER ISSUES AT BAY FOR NOW. STILL...THE LONGEVITY OF THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN KEEP THE NECESSITY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FRONT AT 05Z FROM NEAR PIT TO ZZV TO SOUTH OF CVG. FIGURING FRONT WILL
STILL NEAR CKB AND JUST SOUTH OF PKB AND NEAR HTS DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z PERIOD.
HAVE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY.

CEILINGS LOWER 06Z TO 12Z WITH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT IN THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIIA COUNTIES NEAR THE FRONT...WITH 2 TO 3 THSD FT CEILINGS IN
SE WV AND SW VA. VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN SHOWERS. IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SAY
VCNTY UNI AND NORTH CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW 1 THSD FT THROUGH 15Z IN LOW STRATUS.

WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY HTS-CRW-EKN ON SOUTH TODAY...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE PKB AND CKB 06Z SET OF TAFS.

HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AROUND 00Z AND THEN BY 06Z IN THE NORTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
VARY. EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS...IF A BIT FURTHER CEILINGS COULD
DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST AT PKB FOR 10Z TO 15Z.

AFTER 06 THURSDAY...
ADDITONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH
AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...KTB/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

UPDATE...

ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH MS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...BUT THINK THESE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

JCL

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
WEAKLEY.

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

359 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL STAY UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REACH AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL WV TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO/PA AREA BY THURSDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND THE
UPPER RIDGES HEADS WEST ALLOWING A BACKDOOR FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
VIRGINIAS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

KEEPING A WATCH ON PRECIP UPSTREAM OVER WV INTO KY THIS
MORNING...AND MODELS ARE DEVELOPING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS LINED UP FROM NRN WV WEST INTO NRN KY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES TODAY FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH SPEED OF THE LOW LVLS ACCELERATES STORMS...WITH STORM
MOTION FROM WSW AT 25-35 KTS. WPC HAS US A SLICE OF SE WV INTO BATH
COUNTY VA IN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WHICH 1
HR FFG RUNS FROM AS LOW AS ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO 1.5 INCHES IN SE WV.

GIVEN THAT WE SAW LIMITED RAINFALL TUESDAY...THINK ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AT BEST...SO FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOLLOWED THE 04Z HRRR AND 00Z HI-RES ARW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE HI-RES ARW-GFS-ECWMF ENTERING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM WILL NOT BE USED AS IT FIRES UP SECONDARY AREA OF
HEAVIER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN VA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE ODD
MODEL OUT...WITH OTHERS KEEPING THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 MORE
IN LINE WITH HIGHER POPS.

WITH HIGHER SHEAR...THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS...WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE WHERE THE HIGHER SHEAR
EXISTS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WITH TODAYS
CONVECTION.

FOR POPS WILL HAVE IT RANGING FROM LIKELY POPS FROM THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE OF SW VA EAST TOWARD CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...OR ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM MARION TO CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION MORE OVER NC/VA BORDER AND SOUTH. THIS AREA COULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE INCREASING CAPES...SO SVR THREAT HERE COULD BE GREATER
THAN FURTHER NORTH...THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS.

TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ONE UPPER VORT
MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. MODELS KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OHIO/NRN KY THROUGH WRN PA LATER
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SE WV/ALLEGHANYS.
ADDED FOG TONIGHT GIVEN CLEARING SKIES...MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN TUESDAY/S
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF BLUEFIELD TO BLACKSBURG TO ROANOKE TO
LYNCHBURG. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALLEGHANYS/SE
WV...TO AROUND 80 NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS...TO MID 80S
ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG...AND NEAR 90 DANVILLE/REIDSVILLE.

TONIGHT...NOT CHANGING THE AIRMASS SO MUGGY LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT WESTWARD...PASSING FROM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY
MORNING TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE OUR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO A
SOLID NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
HEATING THURSDAY...PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW/MID 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY DISORGANIZED POP-UP VARIETY THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT THAT A FEW
OF THOSE THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR...WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LOCATED.

LOW PRESSURE PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN RIDGES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BREAKING UP
FURTHER EAST IN THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDFLOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SINK THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE CAROLINAS...BEFORE STALLING LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

WE WILL THEN HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAKE AN APPROACH FROM AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TIMING AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE FEATURES
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODELS RUNS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE DISTURBANCE TO ENTER OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
EACH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO
THE LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...EXPANDING INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT
WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH MODELS HINTING THIS FEATURE WILL CUTOFF OVER THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS LIES FRO EKN-BKW-TRI. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE BRINGING
THIS AREA INTO THE LWB/BLF SITES BY 08-09Z...SO HAVE VCSH WITH
TEMPO SHRA AT BOTH SITES WHERE CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR. THINK FOG
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
SOME FOG AT BCB POSSIBLE EARLY ON BEFORE LOWER CIGS ARRIVE BY 10Z.
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT BCB BETWEEN 10-12Z. DO NOT
FORESEE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MAKING IT PAST THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING BUT CIGS ARE GOING TO LOWER TO A MID DECK AROUND 7-12KFT.
MODELS WERE BRINGING SOME GOOD MIXING OUT OF THE WEST TODAY WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS POPPING UP FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST OVER THE ROA/BCB TAF SITES AND WEST. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPSTREAM FRONT MOVES CLOSER LATER TODAY AND OLD OUTFLOW
HEADS EAST...THE RISK FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ESPCLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN EITHER A PREVAILING VFR MENTION FOR SHRA
OR VCTS FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCLUDING
KDAN WHERE SHOULD BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH
FOG POSSIBLY FORMING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BARRING ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THIS FRONT WILL BE HANGING UP FROM CENTRAL WV INTO MD TONIGHT THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. FOR US WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE...SUBJECT TO DAILY THREAT FOR MVFR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF BRIEF ROUNDS OF
MVFR/IFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

147 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP
STALL A COLD FRONT NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND BORDER WEST TO
OHIO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO TRIGGER A
FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST WITH MARGINAL
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH
FOG POSSIBLY FORMING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BARRING ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

EXPECT PESKY CLOUD DECK FROM 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN INTO SOUTHWEST WI TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NEAR SURFACE LAYER HAS MOISTENED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WINDS
HAVE GONE CALM...BUT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER NOW PUTS A QUESTION
MARK ON FOG POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH BCFG AT KLSE AND AMEND
AS NECESSARY IF FOG DOES INDEED FORM LATE TONIGHT. VERY SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER FROM 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SCT-BKN CUMULUS. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

323 AM MST WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY. STILL
ANTICIPATING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM TUCSON TO
NOGALES. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS THINKING FOR TODAY.
MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY.
THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE WEST
RESULTING IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SATURDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED FROM KTUS VICINITY
EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD AFTER 08/18Z THRU ABOUT 09/03Z. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1000 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE JUST OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADEMOVINGG
INLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DISSIPATING. EASTERLY FLOW PUTS
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WBZ HEIGHT LOWEST IN SEVERAL DAYS, INDICATIVE OF DRIER MIDLEVEL
AIR, WHICH COULD MAKE HAIL A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER IN
CONTRAST, 12Z RAOB MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE BELOW 6C/KM, WHICH COULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM STRENGTH. REGARDLESS, WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS ON GULF COAST FOR THIS PM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

AVIATION...

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KMIA/KOPF,
BUT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT MVFR CIGS
WILL LIFT. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
WITH PREDOMINATE EASTERLY FLOW, THUS VCTS WAS MAINTAINED FOR APF.
A TEMPO GROUP MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR APF AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SYNOPTIC
SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC PROVIDING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH
WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS
STREAMING INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE
PLACED VCSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AT ALL EAST COAST
SITES. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

MARINE...
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES TO THE WEST.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 90 79 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 89 80 / 20 30 20 20
MIAMI 92 79 90 80 / 40 30 20 20
NAPLES 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

808 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 90 79 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 89 80 / 20 30 20 20
MIAMI 92 79 90 80 / 40 30 20 20
NAPLES 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

758 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A DRY AND WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST WITH MODEL PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 00Z
SPC WRF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WITH POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT. RISING THICKNESSES WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE
CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...WITH THE ONLY REAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BEING ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME EAST. DRY AND MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONTINUED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AT BEST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE UPPER 90S. EVEN WITH THE HIGH PUSHING FURTHER WESTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

628 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST WITH MODEL PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE FA WHILE THE 00Z SPC WRF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE HRRR WITH POPS AROUND 20. RISING THICKNESSES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET...LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MILD
LOWS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS FOR
POPS...WITH THE ONLY REAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME EAST. DRY
AND MILD AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

943 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND
OREGON IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND OVER GEM AND PAYETTE COUNTIES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO FOCUSED NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE NEVADA
BORDER...AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NO MORNING
UPDATES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST UNDER
AN INCH ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH
WITH SOME STORMS AS WELL.

.AVIATION...VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE KBNO-KBOI-
KMYL. VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10KFT MSL...VARIABLE 5-
10KTS...THEN AFTER 09/06Z EAST AT 10-15 KTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PAYETTE/BOISE RIVER
BASINS FROM AROUND NEW PLYMOUTH TO GARDEN VALLEY AS OF 630
AM...MOVING EAST AROUND 7 MPH. LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED AROUND 612
AM 39 MILES NORTH OF BOISE NEAR BANKS. THESE WERE IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND WERE A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR THAT. ALSO THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED OVER 1000
J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND ALMOST AN INCH OF PWAT /0.91/ SO
UPDATED THUNDERSTORM ATTRIBUTES TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. /END UPDATE/. THERE WERE A FEW NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER EAST CENTRAL CAMAS COUNTY AROUND 2 AM MDT AND
STEENS MTN AROUND MIDNIGHT PDT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR SHOW
THE CENTRAL ID ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO PIH/S AREA BY 6 AM AND AN
INCREASE IN STORMS NEAR THE NV BORDER. WATERVAPOR IMAGE SHOWS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH NE OREGON AND THE ID PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS N NV LIFTING SLOWLY N. THIS MOIST
AXIS IS ON THE N FLANK OF A COASTAL LOW. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
THE TROUGH WILL GET AS FAR S AS KBKE-KMYL AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND THAT THE
MOIST AXIS WILL LIFT TO SRN PARTS OF OREGON AND IDAHO AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE NEARER THE
NV BORDER AND CENTRAL ID. STORMS AGAIN WILL HAVE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WORKING
WITH PWAT AROUND ONE INCH.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 90-95TH
PERCENTILE AT BOISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE 10-
20KT SO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS AND STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS AND A THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE STORM CHARACTER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SHEAR ALOFT AND THREATS WILL
MAINLY BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
ORZ636-637.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1119 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WET WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING
INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE AN IDEAL SET UP FOR RAIN. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CENTRERED OVER WESTERN MO AT THIS TIME MOVING TOWARDS CENTRAL IL.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO INDIANA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
RESULT IN MODERATE...MAYBE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOOKING AT SPC SHARP
SOUNDING ANALYSES THIS MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT KILX
IS 1.64 INCHES...AT KILN IS AT 1.86 INCHES...BUT KSGF IN SOUTHWEST
MO WHERE THE SYSTEM IS VALUES ARE 2.07 INCHES. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMING FROM SOUTHWEST MO ON NOSE OF
35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
CONTENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AGAIN WITH OVER 1 INCH/HOUR
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MO ENEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA JUST NORTH
OF THE OH RIVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE TRACK THAT MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS AND
HRRR INDICATE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND COMES IN AFTER 09/00Z.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

1400Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MADE A FEW
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS BOTH HERE AND
UPSTREAM.

FIRST PULLED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...AND ONLY LEFT IN ISOLATED STORMS
FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THUNDER EARLY TODAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION WITH SUPPORT FROM A WEAKLY SHEARED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR...AND HEAD
FOR INDIANA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POPS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS THINKING IN KEEPING WITH 100 PERCENT POPS ALL AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE POINTING TO A LULL IN ACTIVITY...THE HRRR POSSIBLY DEPICTS
THIS THE BEST WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WSW TO NE
FROM AROUND 20-21Z THROUGH 00Z. THEN RAIN CHANCES LOOK EVEN
GREATER (IF THAT IS EVEN POSSIBLE) AND DEFINITELY WETTER WITH A
MORE POTENT WAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING
AFTER 00Z.

OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE TO INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THINKING IS THAT THE WARM RAIN PROCESS TYPE EVENT FROM YESTERDAY
(TUESDAY) WILL PLAY OUT SIMILARLY TODAY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
NOT REACH THE ZERO DEGREE LINE UNTIL UPWARDS OF OVER 15K FT. THIS
MEANS THERE WILL BE NO ICE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE LAYER TO INTERFERE
WITH THE RAIN PROCESSES...AND THIS IN TURN MEANS THAT HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS THAN EVEN THE MOST ROBUST MODELS ARE PREDICTING ARE VERY
LIKELY. AND HENCE THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
TECHNICALLY BEGINS AT NOON TODAY AND GOES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH STILL LOOKS *VERY* NECESSARY FOR THE AREA
AND THUS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SOME
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST AND ALL
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

AGAIN WE HAVE A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR RAIN TODAY...MAINLY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. GFS AND
NAM BOTH DEPICT A SHORT WAVE PUSHING IN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HE
SOUTH BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
QUICKLY SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH PRECIPITATBLE WATER ONCE AGAIN
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW GOOD LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. 310K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS ONLY MARGINAL
LIFT...HOWEVER SOME VERY MOIST SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE IN
PLACE...OVER 8-9 K/KG THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE COOLER
AND DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE FOR A
BIT...OVERRUNNING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
THUS WILL BE TREND POPS TOWARD 100 AGAIN TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN
MAVMOS...CLOSER TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS AND OVER SATURATED
IN OTHERS DUE TO RAIN FALL YESTERDAY...IN COMBINATION WITH RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH STARTING LATE
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

WITH ONGOING RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WE PUSH INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...GFS AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO A SECOND SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. AGAIN..PWATS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE...GFS
PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES BY 06Z THURS...AMID A SATURATED COLUMN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION THOUGH 600 MB...WHERE THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE. THIS IS IDEAL FOR WARM RAIN
PROCESSES..PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. FURTHER ALOFT...200MB LEVEL
SHOWS GOOD FORCING ARRIVING AS INDIANA FINDS ITSELF IN A RIGHT
REAR JET SECTION. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AGAIN SHOWS MODERATE
LIFT ALONG WITH A VERY HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OVER 10 G/KG. BY 06Z
NAM TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A VERY MOIST COLUMN AND VERY STRONG
LIFT...NEAR 20 -UBAR/S. SUMMING UP ALL THIS STUFF...WE HAVE LOTS
OF MOISTURE...AND VERY STRONG FORCING. AGAIN WILL TREND TOWARD 100
POPS...WITH A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AS ONGOING FLOODING MAY STILL BE
OCCURRING AND THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO STOP FALLING AS THE
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE FORCING EXITS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO
THE EAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT TOWARD STEADY STATE
WET BULB VALUES.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...AT 12Z THURSDAY...RAIN MAY STILL FALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE FORCING DEPARTS...HOWEVER THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT DEPARTING AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW A TOP DOWN DRYING AS
EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH POPS ON THURSDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST...BUST TREND POPS LOWER AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WILL PLAN ON ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT 18Z
THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO GO COMPLETELY
DRY...BUT SUGGEST UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AS THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME RIDGE RIDING
ENERGY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES. REALLY
WANT TO TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...BUT DUE TO THE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. WILL TREND TOWARD LOW CHC POPS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A
BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FORCING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH. AS
A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL COME DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO INDIANA ON SUNDAY EVENING.
SO...PRECIPIATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH PLENTIFUL WARM ADVECTION AT
THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL SUBSIDE BACK TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY THOUGH AS
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE
AREA.

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

OCCASIONAL LIFR...MOSTLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AT KIND AS VISIBILITIES ARE DOWN TO A MILE AND
CEILINGS ARE AT 900 FT AGL. LOOKS LIKE THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
NORM FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES FROM MO INTO
INDIANA THRUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO SOUTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO TAF SITES
BEFORE MID-MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING
FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THIS MORNING...BUT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES
CLOSER AND FORCING STRENGTHENS...SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE
INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN KIND TAF PERIOD AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS BY TOMORROW MORNING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1114 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

1400Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MADE A FEW
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS BOTH HERE AND
UPSTREAM.

OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE TO INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK THE WARM RAIN PROCESS TYPE EVENT FROM YESTERDAY (TUESDAY)
WILL PLAY OUT SIMILARLY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT REACH THE
ZERO DEGREE LINE UNTIL UPWARDS OF OVER 15K FT...WHICH MEAN THERE
WILL BE NO ICE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE LAYER TO INTERFERE WITH THE
RAIN PROCESSES. AND THIS IN TURN MEAN MOST LIKELY THAT HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS THAN EVEN THE MOST ROBUST MODELS ARE PREDICTING ARE VERY
LIKELY. AND HENCE THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
TECHNICALLY BEGINS AT NOON TODAY AND GOES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH STILL LOOKS VERY NECESSARY FOR THE AREA AND
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SOME
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST AND ALL
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN KIND TAF PERIOD AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES IMPROVE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1030 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.MESO DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE
TO THE OHIO RIVER. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING COOLER...NORTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN TO THE 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MEANWHILE...JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT VERY
MOIST AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S REMAINED IN PLACE. LOOKING AT
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHED
FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
WAS FOUND WITHIN THIS STREAM...OVER OKLAHOMA...PUSHING NORTHEAST.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN KIND TAF PERIOD AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES IMPROVE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.

.MESO DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS IFR CONDITIONS
ARE REPORTED AT MOST SITES. KHUF ONLY ONE RIGHT NOW AT VFR...BUT
LOOKING OVER INTO IL THERE ARE VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 5 MI WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN. KIND JUST WENT DOWN TO 1.5 MI...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
IFR...MAYBE LIFR OCCASIONALLY...FOR SOME SITES TODAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN KIND TAF PERIOD AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES IMPROVE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

MESO UPDATE...DWM
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

600 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME BKN050
BY 18Z. SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSRA IN
THE 02-05Z TIME FRAME FOR KDDC/KGCK. WINDS WILL BE SE 5-10 KT THIS
MORNING AND INCREASE 10-15 KT BY 18Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 64 83 66 / 0 50 50 30
GCK 80 64 82 66 / 0 60 40 40
EHA 84 64 88 65 / 40 60 40 40
LBL 82 65 88 67 / 20 60 40 40
HYS 80 63 78 65 / 0 70 70 50
P28 80 66 85 69 / 0 60 60 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

630 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TIMING OF STORMS WAS BASED ON THE
LATEST RUC13 DATA...SHOWING THE BAND SHIFTING EAST GRADUALLY THRU
THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING BY AROUND 00Z.

LACY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MUCH ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN BAND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
ARDMORE...AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST GIVEN THE
OBSERVED SURFACE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE HIGHWAY
75 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE PRECIPITATION
RATES OBSERVED SO FAR THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TAPER OFF IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
FASHION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GREATER FORCING SHIFTS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF ONGOING
RAINFALL...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OF THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES COULD BE DROPPED EARLY...POSSIBLY BY MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BORDER LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME
LATE THIS WEEK...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS AS THE RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AT THAT POINT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS CAN DRY OUT FROM THE CURRENT ROUND OF RAINFALL...WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OF THE YEAR. GIVEN HOW
WARM PARTS OF THE AREA WERE ABLE TO GET IN EARLY JUNE NOT LONG
AFTER THE FLOODS OF MAY...WOULD BET THAT THIS WILL OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY THAN MOST WOULD EXPECT. MOST CERTAINLY HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS...LIKELY LEADING TO OUR FIRST HEAT
ADVISORIES OF THE SUMMER.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 77 69 87 73 / 90 50 50 10
FSM 80 70 89 72 / 90 40 30 10
MLC 77 71 88 72 / 100 30 20 10
BVO 76 66 85 71 / 90 50 50 30
FYV 75 68 85 69 / 90 50 50 10
BYV 75 68 85 69 / 90 50 50 10
MKO 76 69 87 71 / 100 50 40 10
MIO 74 66 83 71 / 100 50 50 20
F10 76 70 88 72 / 90 40 30 10
HHW 83 72 90 72 / 80 10 10 10

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.

AVIATION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1143 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE
OUT ALONG AHEAD OF IT...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MUCH OR THE
REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. THE CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS THE SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE...THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN THE SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL AND IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT LESS CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES AIM ON OUR LOCAL
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIDE INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS /WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEG F
OR MORE COOLER THAN PRESENT LOWS/.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THIS PERIOD. BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES IN
OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN OUR COUNTIES. HIGH END AMOUNTS WOULD BE 0.5 TO 1.0.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER AS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY IT SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NRN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY MORNING-THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE SOLIDLY LINKED TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70 KT 300 HPA JET. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS OUR SE ZONES
INCLUDED IN THEIR MARGINAL RISK AREA...WE/LL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE TSRA AS 0-1KM STORM REL HELICITY
RAMPS UP TO SOME LOFTY LEVELS OF 2-3.5 M2/S2. A BLEND OF MULTI-
CELL SEVERE AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS SHOULD NEGATE ANYTHING FOR THAN A FEW ELEVATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

PWAT OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL QUICKLY ADVECT BACK INTO THE STATE
AND HELP TO JUICE UP THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE
A FEW...TRAINING TSRA COULD EASILY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF
JUST 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.

CONFIDENCE IN A 48 HOUR/2-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY HAS INCREASED RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE LATEST MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY/LOW PW AIR
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THURSDAY`S
CONVECTIVE FRONTAL WAVE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA COAST WHICH
SHOULD REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAFL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST
LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD
CONVECTIVE IMPULSES ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FCST THAT
MAY STILL TAKE A WHILE TO BE RESOLVED.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED THOUGH WITH THE LOW STRATO
CUE REMAINING ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW IFR CIGS
AT UNV AND JST SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST AT BFD...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LGT SHOWERS WILL PUSH SEWD AND THE LATEST
HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE AIRSPACE DRYING OUT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SCT P.M. SHOWERS OR ISOLD
TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM JST/AOO/UNV...HOWEVER DUE TO LATEST NEAR
TERM MODELS CONFIDENCE IS WAINING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. TSTMS SRN 1/2. VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LCL
IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. STRONG TSTMS PSBL SRN 1/3.

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1028 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
WEAK SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FOR THIS REASON...CHANCES WERE INCREASED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TVT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES IN OUR
CWA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED
FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN NW TENNESSEE AS SOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING STORMS EXIT THE AREA AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS
SUBSIDED THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOODING WATCH HAS BEEN/WILL BE CANCELLED MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM TODAY MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CANNOT COUNT OUT A STRONG STORM OVER THOSE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE. MODELS DEPICT DIFFERING SCENARIOS WITH THE
AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY WITH THE
EURO AND GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE...THE NAM KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
THE HRRR DEPICTING SCATTERED PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS
THE HRRRS SOLUTION. IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY THROUGHOUT THE
MIDSOUTH AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM AND FRONT PULLING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER REGION LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT CLEARER SKIES AND A MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE WEATHER STORY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT
AFTERNOON 925MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
25-27 DEGREES WHICH CONVERT TO SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. THOSE SURFACE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES.
HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS POINT BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INCREASING OUR CHANCES OF RAIN AND
DECREASING TEMPERATURES.

JPM3

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY SITE...BUT THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT JBR. WILL INCLUDED VCSH AT JBR
BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...BUT NO WEATHER MENTIONED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND VIS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

614 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

JPM3

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

505 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

JPM3

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

ARS

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DYER-GIBSON-
HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

933 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 932 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGE AND TRENDS. LEANED LATE
MORNING POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND NAM. IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS AND
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH SURFACE OBS
AND TWEAKED TOWARDS LAV GUIDE FOR LATE MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SEE
HOW WEATHER DEVELOPS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY.

AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS HAVE FADED IN INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...WITH BROAD AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES STRETCHING FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS UP
THE BLUE RIDGE INTO VA...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO SE WV.

TRIMMED POPS SOME THIS MORNING MODIFYING CLOSER TO THE HRRR...BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. THIS MODEL TAKES FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 14Z...WITH AREA OF
STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN KY MOVING INTO OUR FAR SW VA CWA
BY MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GIVEN THAT WE SAW LIMITED RAINFALL TUESDAY...THINK ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AT BEST...SO FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOLLOWED THE 04Z HRRR AND 00Z HI-RES ARW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE HI-RES ARW-GFS-ECWMF ENTERING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...NOT CHANGING THE AIRMASS SO MUGGY LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO
THE LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY...STARTING WITH SOME MVFR IN
BLF/LWB...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF MOST TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING
LWB FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

WEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE MTNS.

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN/DEVELOP OVER THE WV/SW VA
MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE NORTH OF A BLF-DAN LINE...SO NO
CHANGES REALLY TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH
FOG POSSIBLY FORMING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BARRING ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

749 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GIVEN THAT WE SAW LIMITED RAINFALL TUESDAY...THINK ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AT BEST...SO FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOLLOWED THE 04Z HRRR AND 00Z HI-RES ARW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE HI-RES ARW-GFS-ECWMF ENTERING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...NOT CHANGING THE AIRMASS SO MUGGY LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO
THE LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE MTNS.

ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH
FOG POSSIBLY FORMING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BARRING ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

943 AM MST WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE PRESSURE ADVECTION ALONG THE 315 KELVIN ISENTROPIC
SURFACE. THE EDGE OF THIS ASCENT WAS INITIALLY MARKED BY A LINE OF
MID LEVEL...ACCAS...CLOUD EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED NW OF TUCSON IN THE AREA OF GREATEST PRESSURE ADVECTION AND
LIMITED CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS TYPE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION USUALLY DOES NOT PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORM LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE PREVIOUS
ASSESSMENT OF TSTORMS FORMING ON MOUNTAINS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
APPEARS ON TRACK BASED ON BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF
KTUS THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD
ESPECIALLY NEAR TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON THRU ABOUT 09/03Z. CLEAR
SKIES SOUTHWEST OF KTUS THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K FT
AGL NORTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH FEW TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING MAY CAUSE A FEW SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY -TSRA/-SHRA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY.
STILL ANTICIPATING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
TUCSON TO NOGALES. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS THINKING FOR
TODAY. MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST TO BUILD BACK TOWARD
THE WEST RESULTING IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SATURDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD/FRENCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

920 AM MST WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN USUAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONSOON SEASON...AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DESPITE THE LACK OF STORM ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHEARING WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS
ENCOUNTERED JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND THE
10K FT LAYER THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN ARC OF MORE INVIGORATED
ACCAS FROM TUCSON THROUGH WICKENBURG. MODEST ASCENT ALONG LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN
THIS SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING NORTHEAST. RECENT HRRR FORECASTS HAVE
CAPTURED THIS EVOLUTION AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY QUICK
MOVING...SHORT LIVED...AND REMAINING ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING FOR
MORE EXTENISVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...ANALYSIS OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN FAR SWRN IMPERIAL COUNTY SUPPORTS A VERY
SMALL AREA OF GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THIS AREA WEST OF EL CENTRO
THROUGH THE IN-KO-PAH GORGE ALONG I-8 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...JUSTIFYING A WIND ADVISORY FOR JUST THE
SMALL SOUTHWEST SEGMENT OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. WHILE STRONGER WINDS MAY
BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRADITIONALLY THE TIMING OF
STRONGEST WINDS SUGGESTS AROUND AND THE FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET WILL
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND LARGEST IMPACTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/513 AM MST WED JUL 8 2015/
TODAY...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS ADVECTED
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS WELL AS SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE LOW
IS ADVERTISED TO NUDGE EASTWARD A BIT TODAY AND A SUBTLE
PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERTS...MAINLY OVER VEF CWA. BOTH
NAM AND GFS DEPICT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TODAY
COMPARED TO TUESDAY BUT CAPE WILL BE LIMITED TO EASTERN ARIZONA WITH
GILA COUNTY BEING ONLY AREA IN OUR CWA WITH ANY POPS. LOCAL AND
NATIONAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN VORT
MAX OF THE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE MOHAVE DESERT REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NICE BULLSEYE OF Q FORCING WITH IT BUT AT
BEST IT ONLY BRUSHES EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS. TO
VARYING DEGREES...MODELS INDICATE A MOISTURE INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW. THUS POPS OVER OUR
EASTERNMOST AREAS ARE A BIT HIGHER. THE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. IN FACT...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES.
TEMPS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. AS THE FIRST LOW QUICKLY
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS...TROUGHING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. THUS ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
BUT WITH EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS HAS
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ADVECTS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAN
THE ECMWF. EVEN TAKING THE GFS AT FACE VALUE...1000-700MB MEAN MIXING
RATIOS LOOK BORDERLINE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MODEST FORECAST CAPE.
WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
IMPINGE UPON SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE A SITUATION WHERE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS AND BLOWING DUST WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT. OF
NOTE...THE GFS BRINGS A PERTURBATION/VORT MAX THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY VERSUS
SATURDAY BUT CANNOT PUT A LOT OF STOCK IN THAT SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING...TEMPS BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
FOR MONDAY THAN THE ECMWF...AND THUS MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT STILL
LOOKS BORDERLINE. THE GFS THEN SHOWS SOME DECLINE IN MOISTURE TUESDAY
AS THE COASTAL TROUGHING MOVES ASHORE AND THE RIDGE SAGS SOUTHWARD A
BIT. STILL NOT AS DRY AS ECMWF BUT ENOUGH SUCH THAT STORM ACTIVITY WOULD
BE MEAGER. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AT
MANY OF THE LOW DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PHOENIX AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT BY 20Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT
KIPL...WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 10 KT WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AND UNFAVORABLE
FOR EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND STORMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...TO MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SEASON SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...THOUGH COULD BEGIN MOVING
WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN A 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE DURING THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE TO A 15-25 PERCENT RANGE NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS
AND DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THIS TIME...THOUGH STRONGER
THAN USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ033.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

215 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION. DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...A COLD HAS CROSSED MOST OF OUR REGION...
EXCEPT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE WERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
IN THIS REGION WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE WAS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE.
WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON OBS/THE LATEST HRRR AND
OTHER GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED 5-10 DEGREES...GENERALLY IN THE 60-65 RANGE...BUT STILL
AROUND 70 FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE.

WE TINKERED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT DID NOT CHANGE MUCH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS LOOK
FOR MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S (MOUNTAINS) TO LOWER
80S (CAPITAL REGION). A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH.

FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...THE THREAT OF SHOWER
OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
80 ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
I-84...TWO WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG IT. THE FIRST AND WEAKER WAVE WAS BACK
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH..BUT COULD BRING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

THE NIGHT WILL START OUT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONE MORE AS THE FIRST WAVE APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 FAR NORTHERN AREAS...UPPER 50S CAPITAL REGION
TO LOWER AND EVEN MID 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL WORK A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHWARD TO
THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN (ESPECIALLY SOUTH)
...SIDE ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY SOUTH). LOOK FOR HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S...LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 BUT SURFACE AND EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED.

THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY ON. THERE WILL BE CLEARING. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING...BUT THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF BREEZE IN SOME
SECTIONS TO MITIGATE ITS FORMATION. FOR NOW...NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO PLACE IT IN THE GRIDS JUST YET.

LOWS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AROUND 60 CAPITAL REGION
AND MID 50S FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

FINE WEATHER SHOULD BE THEME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND NIGHTS MAINLY CLEAR. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 80S ALBANY SOUTHWARD A BIT WARMER
SATURDAY...UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...MID TO UPPER 80S
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
I-84...TWO WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG IT. THE FIRST AND WEAKER WAVE WAS BACK
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH..BUT COULD BRING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN (ESPECIALLY SOUTH)
...SIDE ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY SOUTH). LOOK FOR HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S...LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 BUT SURFACE AND EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED.

LOWS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AROUND 60 CAPITAL REGION
AND MID 50S FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A WARM AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
OUT TO SEA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPS WILL BE LIFTED FROM THE PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
WARMING TO AS HIGH AS 16 DEGREES C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...SO IT WON/T BE OVERLY MUGGY QUITE YET.
LOWS ON SAT NIGHT LOOK MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WITH THE BROAD W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL PROBABLY BE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS SYSTEM MAY WIND UP CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN...DIGGING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US...SO A FEW DAY PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY POINT BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT/S MOST LIKELY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TIME...AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S FOR SUNDAY...BUT PROBABLY ONLY 70S
TO NEAR 80 FOR MON/TUES WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND.
DEWPOINTS WILL START TO CREEP UP INTO THE 60S MAKING IT FEEL A
LITTLE MUGGY AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE KPOU AREA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...WITH A
VFR CEILING BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AS
A FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG IT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CALM
WINDS FOR ALL SITES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP AROUND
KPOU AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS
THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 14Z...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
OUTLOOK...

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THE MUGGY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND DROP TO 30 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH TONIGHT...AND VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR FLOODING ON THE STILL
RIVER AT BROOKFIELD. VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THIS AREA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN
PLACE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

208 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS 10-15
KTS TODAY ON THE EAST COAST WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
COASTAL SHOWERS AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS THURS AM, SO VCSH WAS INSERTED. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AROUND DAWN. STORM
EVOLUTION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY ON THURSDAY, MAINLY INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE JUST OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DISSIPATING. EASTERLY FLOW PUTS
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WBZ HEIGHT LOWEST IN SEVERAL DAYS, INDICATIVE OF DRIER MIDLEVEL
AIR, WHICH COULD MAKE HAIL A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER IN
CONTRAST, 12Z RAOB MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE BELOW 6C/KM, WHICH
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM STRENGTH. REGARDLESS, WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS ON GULF COAST FOR THIS PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 90 79 91 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 90 / 30 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 80 91 / 30 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 93 75 93 / 30 50 30 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

700 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE
FRONT AND PUSHES INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SNEAK ACROSS UNDER THE RIDGE BUILDING
DOWN OVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK LOOK BRIEFLY DRIER. HOWEVER...THE RAINY PATTERN APPEARS
TO PICK BACK UP BY NEXT WEEK WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

AT THIS HOUR (3 PM) WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AS NEARLY ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS
PREDICTED...THERE IS GOING TO BE AT LEAST A 3-4 HOUR LULL IN
ACTIVITY WHICH THE HRRR DID AN EXCELLENT JOB OF DEPICTING EARLIER
THIS MORNING. THIS MODEL SHOWED WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON
THE RADAR MOSAIC AND PER TRENDS UPSTREAM...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WSW TO NE FROM AROUND 20-21Z THROUGH 00Z EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEN RAIN CHANCES LOOK EVEN GREATER...IF THAT IS EVEN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. MOST CERTAINLY WETTER WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE BEGINNING TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING AFTER 00Z. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WHICH GOES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS VERY
NECESSARY FOR THE AREA AND THUS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
SECOND...STRONGER SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. PWATS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE...EASILY IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH A VERY SATURATED COLUMN WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERING THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
GOOD FORCING MECHANISM. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ALL NIGHT THOUGH
AND GENERALLY CUT BACK ON ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...PER GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS/CONSISTENCY AND NOW FORECAST
PERSISTENCE...ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH 100 PERCENT POPS MOST LOCATIONS.
SAVE FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF AS OF LATE.

AS ONGOING FLOODING MAY STILL BE OCCURRING...THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO STOP FALLING AS THE SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE FORCING EXITS
BY THURSDAY MORNING TO THE EAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS
TONIGHT TOWARD STEADY STATE WET BULB VALUES FOR MID TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THURSDAY MORNING RAIN SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
HIGH POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AND TREND POPS
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE PLAN IS STILL TO END THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT 18Z THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE EXPECTED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD HAVE ENDED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IF CONDITIONS
TREND TOWARD NEEDED AN EARLIER EXPIRATION TIME...THIS CAN BE
ADJUSTED LATER BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO STICK WITH THIS EXPIRATION
TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RESIDUAL OR REMAINING FLOODING TROUBLE
SPOTS. FOR TEMPERATURES TRENDED COOLER FOR HIGHS THAN
MAVMOS RANGING FROM LOW 70S (NORTH) TO 78 (SOUTH).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER FRIDAY DOES NOT LOOK AS DRY AS A WEAK SYSTEM IS STILL
TRYING TO RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HAD TO BUMP UP POPS TO JUST SHY OF LIKELY ON FRIDAY. WEAKER PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MAY ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AND CREATE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ALBEIT THE CHANCES REMAIN WEAK. FOR TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

ECMWF AND GFS LOOK GOOD TO START OUT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. REACHING
INTO SOUTHWEST PARTS OF INDIANA. THE MODELS DIVERGE BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DROP SSEWD OVER IL/IN FOR
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE THAN IS THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE WILL
DROP OFF AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED. IF THE GFS BECOMES THE
RIGHT SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT.

IN ANY CASE...LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
COMING UP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOOKS LIKE THAT
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AT
ALL TAF SITES...WITH CEILINGS IN IFR CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL PASS CLOSE TO...BUT
NORTH OF...LAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AND AFTER THE LEADING WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH...LEAVING ALL SITES IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPORARY LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. VICINITY SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT OUT OF THE LOW. CEILINGS WILL THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...MMB/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

434 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 082100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

INITIAL BAND OF LIFT/PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE KIND
VICINITY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY LULL
IN THE RAINFALL.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RATHER STRONG LIFT WILL BE MOVING
IN LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 090300Z-090600Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW
SPREADING OVER IL AND WILL BE MOVING OVER INDIANA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THUS...LOOKS LIKE IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR SHOULD BE THE
RULE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOR KIND AND KBMG...WITH MAINLY IFR
FOR KHUF AND KLAF.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA TONIGHT AND GIVE AN
INCREASE OF SOME -TSRA WITH IFR/LIFR CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THU
MORNING FOR KIND/KBMG AS THERE WILL BE SOME COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR COME AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ENE OUT
OF THE AREA.

LOOKS LIKE THEN THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE NOON.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

341 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LOOKS LIKE THEN THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE NOON.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

1400Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MADE A FEW
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS BOTH HERE AND
UPSTREAM.

THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SOME
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST AND ALL
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LOOKS LIKE THEN THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE NOON.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1242 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

1400Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MADE A FEW
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS BOTH HERE AND
UPSTREAM.

THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SOME
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST AND ALL
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LIKE RAIN? IF SO...THIS FORECAST IS FOR YOU.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

LOOKS LIKE THEN THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE NOON.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1233 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

FOR TODAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
STARTING TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE ROCKIES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALONG
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. RAP SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY,
AND LATE DAY CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH BETTER SHEAR AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY BEING LOCATED
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN LATE DAY
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND FORCING EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
CLOUDS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET CREATING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 64 83 66 / 10 50 50 30
GCK 80 64 82 66 / 20 60 40 40
EHA 80 64 88 65 / 40 60 40 40
LBL 79 65 88 67 / 30 60 40 40
HYS 80 63 78 65 / 20 70 70 50
P28 79 67 85 69 / 10 60 60 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

545 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO LMK...WILL BE ENDING THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SHORT-
LIVED...AND NOT THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS NEEDED TO WARRANT THE
WATCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS THROUGH 06Z.

THERE IS QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
ADVERTISED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER ARKANSAS...AND
MISSOURI IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE THAT FAR BEHIND.

THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE
00Z-06Z PERIOD. IN BOTH CASES...THE CONVECTION REALLY WEAKENS...IF
NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATES...AS IT REACHES SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEST KENTUCKY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN
ACTIVITY...AND SPARES MOST OF THE AREA FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF.

TRIED TO USE THE NAM/HRRR SOLUTIONS AS A GUIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP...SO
THE NORTHWEST SEGMENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
06Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.

FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS ALL DRAPE THE FRONT ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE NAM DEVELOPS
AND HOLDS ONTO WEAKER CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE FRONT
THURSDAY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO THE CONVECTION FOR AWHILE. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND THAT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE A SMALL POP FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE GETTING HOT BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

ECMWF, GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SLOWLY SLIDING WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, MOVING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. MODELS ALL
SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED TROF GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RETURN TO OUR NORTHEAST HALF OF COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AND EXPANDING SOUTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR INTO OUR
REGION. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTHEAST, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAINTAINED GENERAL THEME OF INHERITED FORECAST WITH NEARBY
BOUNDARY YIELDING TSRA CHANCE ESP N/W LATER TONIGHT
(KCGI/KEVV)...THEN DIURNALLY TMRW ALL TERMINALS AS IT IS STILL IN
THE VICINITY. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE GENERAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS
WITH TIME AND MOVE INTO MVFR IF/AS PCPN OCCURS. SIMILAR WITH VSBYS
IF RESTRICTIONS OCCUR.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>111.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>087.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ004-005.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

309 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE GETTING HOT BY FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

AS THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTHEAST, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE WARM FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF KEVV...AND MAY TAKE AWHILE TO
PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AT
KEVV...IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT...BUT A SOUTH
WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT LIKELY...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO. TS MOST LIKELY AT KCGI LATE THIS EVENING AS A DECAYING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
NOT SURE IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OR REMAIN
ACTIVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD VEER TO WESTERLY IN THE MORNING...AND MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE
LEFT OVER FRONT...MAINLY NEAR KPAH AND KOWB THURSDAY MORNING.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>111.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>087.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ004-005.

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

359 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. THE LATEST RAP RUN HAS BACKED OFF THE INSTSABILITY,
BOTH IN NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH, AND IN
MAGNITUDE. REGARDLESS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE NOSES UP INTO OUR CWFA
FROM NEAR ELLINGTON UP TO SALEM. 200-300 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM HELICITY
AND AROUND 100 M2/S2 0-1KM HELICITY IS PLENTY OF SHEAR TO PROMOTE
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
ALONG WITH WANING DIURNAL HEATING. TRULY WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
GET A TORNADO WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER, BUT I WOULDN`T
THINK THE THREAT WILL LAST TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING.

OTHER CONCERN IS CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI FLASH FLOOD WATCH DROPS AT 00Z, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONTINUING UNTIL 06Z. WHILE I THINK THE
THREAT FOR TRULY HEAVY RAIN IS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, WE ARE SO
WET THAT I THINK THE WATCH IS STILL VALID UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH, POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAIN IS STILL A VERY REAL THREAT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT DOESN`T GET VERY FAR
SOUTH BEFORE STALLING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
STALL OVER SOUTEHRN MISSOURI OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS
IT LOITERS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY INTO, THEN
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WHICH ENVIGORATES THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PUSHES THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY RESULTING
IN HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 5960M 500MB
RIDGE SPINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE SOME
REAL JULY HEAT THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEEKEND WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE OVER
THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
THE REST OF THE AREA.

CARNEY

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF KFAM AS OF 1700
UTC. KCOU AND KUIN WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL
DEAL WITH IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE METRO TAFS...APPEARS THAT A NARROW WINDOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS
LIKELY AND KEPT IN TAF. HOWEVER...IF WARM FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT
AS FAR NORTH AS ANTICIPATED...THEN THE CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD
DIMINISH. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE METRO TAFS DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF KFAM AS OF 1700
UTC. FOR LAMBERT FIELD...APPEARS THAT A NARROW WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS LIKELY
AND KEPT IN TAF. HOWEVER...IF WARM FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS ANTICIPATED...THEN THE CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD DIMINISH.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT AND
ITS UNCERTAIN NORTHWARD PUSH.

GOSSELIN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 63 79 69 89 / 80 10 60 30
QUINCY 57 75 63 85 / 80 10 60 50
COLUMBIA 59 77 66 88 / 60 20 60 30
JEFFERSON CITY 61 79 67 89 / 60 30 60 30
SALEM 67 77 66 87 / 80 20 40 30
FARMINGTON 67 80 67 90 / 80 40 40 10

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-IRON
MO-JEFFERSON MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-
PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-
ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON
MO.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-KNOX
MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-SHELBY MO-
WARREN MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

327 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

CARNEY

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MDLS CONTINUE
TO PROG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRI AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MDLS PROG THE LOW, CURRENTLY OFF THE WRN COAST, TO
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ON MON. REGION REMAINS UNDER
NW FLOW THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HAVE CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. POPS INCREASE AS
NW FLOW RETURNS, BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPS IN GOING FORECAST MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED, ESP FOR MON WHEN THERMAL RIDGE REALLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF A
CDFNT, WILL KEEP FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREV FOR NOW.

TILLY

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CURRENTLY...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF KFAM AS OF 1700
UTC. FOR LAMBERT FIELD...APPEARS THAT A NARROW WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS LIKELY
AND KEPT IN TAF. HOWEVER...IF WARM FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS ANTICIPATED...THEN THE CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD DIMINISH.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TONIGHT BEHIND THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT AND
ITS UNCERTAIN NORTHWARD PUSH.

GOSSELIN

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-KNOX
MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-SHELBY MO-
WARREN MO.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

131 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

Main near term concern is the chances for renewed convective
development over the eastern cwfa.

A pocket of somewhat higher instability has developed over south
central MO where sfc temperatures have risen into the low-mid
80s. Progged RUC instability of 500-1000 j/kg is expected in this
area this afternoon. High resolution models are tending to
intensify convection along/ahead of the ongoing showers, at least
on a scattered basis. A continued strong low level inflow/jet will
enhance low level helicity with the potential of stronger
storms/low topped supercells. Already seeing weak rotation with
convection in the northeast cwfa. Helicity may be enhanced by west-
east warm front over central/east central MO. HRRR develops
somewhat stronger updrafts toward 21z-22z and then on into the
early evening. Some sw-ne training of convection may occur over our
eastern counties as well early this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

Another shortwave is progged to move into eastern KS late in the
day with further chances for renewed precip into Thu night. In
general, better precip chances will then shift north of the area
for a bit as an upper level ridge works it`s way over the region
Fri-Sat-Sun. Very warm/hot/steamy weather is then expected Fri
into early next week. First look at general guidance has low 90s
for highs for this time frame (Fri-Mon).

Active weather then may occur again by Tue-Wed as the upper
pattern amplifies as a ridge builds over Rockies and we are under
upper level nw flow. Hard to get too detailed yet out that far.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

Generally, MVFR conditions likely with IFR conditions possible
through the period. Overcast skies continue to overspread the area
and should continue through at least Thursday morning. Cig/Vis
numbers will vary a bit, but again should remain within the ranges
highlighted above. Low level wind shear will also be possible this
afternoon...then should relax as time progresses.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR MOZ082-083-096>098-
104>106.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

623 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT WILL BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY...DISSIPATING SUNDAY. A BETTER FLOW OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIFTED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE BERMUDA HIGH
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WE JUST DON`T SEEM TO HAVE ADEQUATE LIFT FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGELY PINNED SEABREEZE APPEARS TO HAVE
A DEPTH OF ABOUT 3700FT ACCORDING TO THE FINE LINE ON KLTX WHEREAS
THE RUC ANALYSIS ON THE SPC PAGE SHOWS LFC`S CLOSER TO 4500KT. IT IS
MORE UNSTABLE THAN RECENT AFTERNOONS DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS
CLOUD COVER, WHICH IS NOT OVERLY OPAQUE BUT CERTAINTY MADE SKY COVER
FORECAST INTERESTING. HAVE MAINTAINED VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN FARTHER WEST COMPLIMENTS OF PIEDMONT TROUGH.
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HIGHEST POPS THEN COME OVER
EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES AS THE WRF IN PARTICULAR SHOWS LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS DEVELOP ON FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AFFECTING NE NC.
LOCALLY RUN HRRR HAS STORMS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND BRUSHING
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG
31-32 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STEERING ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS.
WARM DESCENDING AIR WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO MINIMIZE THE
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON`S SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN A REGIME OF
850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY >70 PERCENT. WE`RE LESS THAN 50
PERCENT THROUGH THAT LAYER TODAY (WEDNESDAY) AND SHOULDN`T
RECOVER MUCH MOISTURE HERE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.

HEAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY: WITH 850 MB TEMPS EDGING TOWARD +20C I
ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. FORECAST HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
100-105 BOTH DAYS. THE AMOUNT OF WESTERLY WIND DELAYING THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING WHICH DAY IS
WARMEST AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS
SHOULD BE FRIDAY. STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE WINDS
THURSDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. MY
FORECAST LOWS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE: 75-80...
WARMEST NEAR THE COAST.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OH-PA THURSDAY
AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE NOW UNIVERSALLY INDICATING THIS
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES AS
THE RIDGE TRANSLATES WESTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
MORNING TO TX/NM DURING SUNDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DIRECT HARD TO PINPOINT/TIME IMPULSES TOWARD THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWN TO INCREASE...THUS THE
TREND IS FOR A BUMP IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. STAYED WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO EXCEPT FOR
SUNDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THE CONVECTION IN
RALEIGH`S AREA...HOWEVER A STRAY STORM COULD MAKE INTO OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 01-04Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT...WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
FOG...BUT THERE COULD BE ISOLATED 5SM POCKETS AROUND SUNRISE. THE
TROUGH STAYS IN THE VICINITY ON THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS FINALLY COMING UP OVER THE WATERS
ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO
DEVELOP NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL COASTAL JETLETS AND THIS ONE MAY POISED
TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT. FRYING PAN HAS PICKED UP TO 13G15KT AND 4 FT
WHILE OLDER SWAN RUNS WANTED 4 FT ALREADY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF OLDER FORECAST AND WNA WAVE GUIDANCE. IT MAY BE A BIT OF
A NOWCASTING TYPE SCENARIO TO SEE IF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KT
DEVELOP...IT SEEMS A BIT UNLIKELY. EVEN IF THEY DO THEY SHOULD BE SO
LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE THAT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NO
BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 30
DEGREES LATITUDE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE TYPICAL SOUTHWEST WIND
WE EXPERIENCE WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BY ANOTHER 5-10 KT...AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE WINDS EXCEED 20 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RECENT COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
SHOULD SHIFT OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS ACTUALLY DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT IN THE
WEAKER OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A COMBINATION
OF 10-SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND LOCAL WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE ONSET
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BACK TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..THEN 3 FT BY
MONDAY EVENING.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

314 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SCT LOW WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED PER COASTAL PIER
OBSERVATIONS. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING FURTHER INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IMPEDING ITS PROGRESS.
THUS TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IS UNCERTAIN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A TIGHT GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SSW WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KT. ONLY ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NOTHING
ORGANIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM TAFS
BUT PROBABLY THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY VCSH IS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.

WINDS DECREASE 02-03Z TO LIGHT SW WITH SCT LO/MID CLOUDS AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER 03-06Z AT
KLBT/KILM BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONTINUES WITH SW-
WSW WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A COMBINATION
OF 10-SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND LOCAL WIND CHOP.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

103 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN TO MOBRIDGE SD.
ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z-19Z FROM AROUND LINTON TO CARRINGTON AND
THEN SPREADING MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COVERED
PRETTY WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST...BUT DID EXTEND THIS AREA BACK A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST...FROM AROUND SELFRIDGE...TO JUST EAST OF
BISMARCK...TO AROUND CARRINGTON...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

SCATTERED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT CREATING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG AT PLACES LIKE DICKINSON AND MINOT. OTHERWISE
SKIES WERE CLEARING WEST AND CENTRAL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD. WILL DROP
MENTION OF SMOKE AFTER 12Z.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ALSO...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED IN DICKINSON...LIKELY DUE TO AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS THAT WERE REPORTED
ON TUESDAY EVENING. NEW HRADEC IN DUNN COUNTY ALSO REPORTED HEAVY
RAIN...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING
THERE AS WELL. THUS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STARK AND
DUNN COUNTIES REGARDING DENSE FOG OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO
COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY
TODAY...WITH THE MODELS INDICATING SOME ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MENTION THUNDER LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON MOST
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND AREAS EAST. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOWER
70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 70S WEST AND SOUTH.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A WEAK H500 (HIGH OVER LOW) REX BLOCK
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WHICH RESULTS IN RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION
TWO DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THE
REX BLOCK KICKS OUT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE EASTERN PACIFIC FLOW.
THIS WILL BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING THE REGION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE ACTIVE ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. PERHAPS THE LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM GETTING NORTH. THIS EXPLAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AS MODELS APPEAR A BIT CAUTIOUS IN PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE
H500 RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

WILL START OUT WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMOT WITH THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO A BRIEF TEMPO PERIOD AT
KISN FOR SMOKE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT KJMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A
TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

649 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG IT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED DUE TO THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD SLIGHTLY
CLEAR BUT REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES AIM ON OUR LOCAL
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIDE INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY HOWEVER AS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IT SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY MORNING-THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE SOLIDLY LINKED TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70 KT 300 HPA JET. WE/LL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TSRA AS 0-1KM STORM REL HELICITY RAMPS UP TO SOME
LOFTY LEVELS OF 2-3.5 M2/S2.THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THIS PERIOD. A PERSISTENT
BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA. THE
DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC WAS INCREASED TO SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST. A BLEND OF MULTI- CELL SEVERE AND A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS SHOULD
NEGATE ANYTHING FOR THAN A FEW ELEVATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.

CONFIDENCE IN A 48 HOUR/2-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY
DRY/LOW PW AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA COAST WHICH
IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL DURING
THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER
MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH THIS
ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES DIMINISHED THE
ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM.

AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED THOUGH WITH THE LOW STRATO
CUE REMAINING ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW IFR CIGS
AT JST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST
AT BFD...AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LGT SHOWERS
WILL PUSH SEWD AND THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE
AIRSPACE DRYING OUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SCT
P.M. SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM
JST/AOO/UNV...HOWEVER DUE TO LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS CONFIDENCE IS
WAINING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. TSTMS SRN 1/2. VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LCL
IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. STRONG TSTMS PSBL SRN 1/3.

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

347 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD SLIGHTLY
CLEAR BUT REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED THOUGH WITH THE LOW STRATO
CUE REMAINING ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW IFR CIGS
AT JST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST
AT BFD...AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LGT SHOWERS
WILL PUSH SEWD AND THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE
AIRSPACE DRYING OUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SCT
P.M. SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM
JST/AOO/UNV...HOWEVER DUE TO LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS CONFIDENCE IS
WAINING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. TSTMS SRN 1/2. VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LCL
IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. STRONG TSTMS PSBL SRN 1/3.

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

317 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND FADE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 KEEP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD SLIGHTLY
CLEAR BUT REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER THE
ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED THOUGH WITH THE LOW STRATO
CUE REMAINING ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW IFR CIGS
AT JST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST
AT BFD...AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LGT SHOWERS
WILL PUSH SEWD AND THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE
AIRSPACE DRYING OUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR SCT
P.M. SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM
JST/AOO/UNV...HOWEVER DUE TO LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS CONFIDENCE IS
WAINING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...RAIN/SHOWERS NRN 1/2. TSTMS SRN 1/2. VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LCL
IFR VIS PSBL IN +RA. STRONG TSTMS PSBL SRN 1/3.

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

541 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS UNSTABLE
AND VERY MOIST. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO THE NORTH...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE NAM IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH SHOWING
INCREASING 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...LIMITING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.

JCL

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST IS THE TRANSITION BACK TO
DRIER/HOTTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WAS
ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN WEST-CENTRAL MO WITH AN ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ORIENTED EAST/WEST SOUTH OF I-70.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR GIVEN
STRONG BUOYANCY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BEST COLLOCATION OF
THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS IS LOCATED ACROSS E MO/SRN IL. SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...WIND FIELDS ALOFT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MID-SOUTH BEGINS A SLOW WARM
UP. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO NEAR 20 C
ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S ON THURSDAY INCREASING TO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL STILL BE OPPRESSIVE FOR THOSE
WORKING FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS.

IN THE LONG-TERM...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO
SMALLER-SCALE PATTERN DETAILS...BUT MOST LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST A WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A CUTOFF LOW/VORT MAX WILL BECOME
DISPLACED FROM THE LARGER HUDSON BAY CIRCULATION BY MID NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING OFF ENERGY...BUT
AGREES THAT A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
COOLER/WETTER PERIOD WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BUT DETAILS OF
SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

TVT

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH MKL LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS. JBR HAS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT MEM...MKL...AND TUP PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE RAIN. VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN UP THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

WER

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1249 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

JPM3

AVIATION...18Z TAF CYC

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH MKL LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS. JBR HAS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS EVENING, BUT MEM, MKL, AND TUP PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE
RAIN. VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN UP THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

WER

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

332 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS TOOK A WHILE TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING ACROSS THE AREA
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS OF 3
PM. MODELS SHOW THAT WE STILL REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER THE EXIT REGION
OF THE JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT AS WELL AS KEEPING BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SLOWER
SPEEDS AROUND 700 HPA THAT MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH STORM
MORPHOLOGY. THE 12Z TTU WRF LOOKS TO HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THINGS ARE INITIATING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
DEVELOPS THIS INTO A FAIRLY DECENT MCS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN AFTER DARK AND THIS MAY HELP THE MCS TO
PROPAGATE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN DUE EAST WHICH RESULTED IN THE
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL WITH THE 18Z
NAM...12Z HIRES-ARW...AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS SOMEWHERE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IN SOME CASES
DUE SOUTH. INITIALLY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE A WET
MICROBURST/DOWNBURST THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THE ONLY WRENCH
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC MACHINERY IS THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DO
FEEL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PULL IN SOME LOW CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AS WELL AS ANY REMNANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF AND
PRECIPITATION MAY COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. THERE IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION A BIT THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MAY HELP TO
PUSH CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART IN THE LONG TERM. UPPER LOW
WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE WORKING NEWD INTO EASTERN
AZ AND ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING...MOISTURE
AND FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER GIVEN UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
FROM THE EAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE UNDERWAY. NAM IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS COMPARED TO GFS WHICH HAS AXIS
RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WARMING LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPS. WILL REACH THE 90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH 90+ TEMPS EMERGING ON THE CAPROCK BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN S
PLAINS/SW PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY WITH NO MENTION OF POPS BY
SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WITH WEAKNESS IN RIDGE POSSIBLE AND NW FLOW ON EASTERN
SIDE OF HIGH ALLOWING FOR A RE-EMERGENCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESP NORTH. TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MON-TUE BUT WITH ABDUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE AND STANDING
WATER...FEEL THAT MAY BE A LITTLE AGRESSIVE SO BACKED DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. JAMES

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 86 64 83 / 40 30 50 40
TULIA 60 85 66 84 / 40 20 40 30
PLAINVIEW 63 85 67 84 / 30 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 65 88 67 84 / 30 20 40 40
LUBBOCK 67 87 68 86 / 30 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 64 89 67 86 / 30 20 30 30
BROWNFIELD 66 88 68 86 / 30 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 67 90 71 90 / 50 30 20 10
SPUR 67 88 69 88 / 20 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 68 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 0

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

211 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE MID LEVELS THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...THAT REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WHATS LEFT OF A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT A LINE FROM GRAYSON COUNTY...THROUGH DENTON COUNTY TO
PARKER AND EARTH COUNTIES...THEN DOWN INTO COMANCHE COUNTY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR THAT AREA. WHERE THIS FRONT MOVES WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. WHERE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT TRACKS WILL BE
THE MOST CONCERNING. THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST
WITH THIS FEATURE...THEY BOTH HAVE IT TRACKING EAST AND THEN
LIFTING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO FALL APART AT THIS POINT IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS AND THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...WITH THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
REMOVED.

BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THEREFORE, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
MIGHT START TO SEE SOME OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THIS
YEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT SOME
CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE KEEP WEATHER OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.

78.JG

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 103 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

MAIN CHALLENGES LIE IN THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECT THE
DFW AREA AIRPORTS...PARTICULARLY DFW/AFW/FTW. WACO SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AND REMAIN VFR. TIMING LOW
MVFR CIGS IN OVERNIGHT MAY BE TRICKY AND RELATED TO STRENGTH OF
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND IF THERE IS ANY CORRUPTION OF
THE AMBIENT FLOW BY CURRENT STORM OUTFLOW.

WE WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING THE MAIN THREAT OF TSRA WITH TEMPO
IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 20Z ACROSS THE DFW AREA...BEFORE GOING
VCTS THROUGH 23Z. WACO WILL REMAIN VFR. AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AFTER 00Z...AIRPORTS WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE MVFR STRATUS RETURNS BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE STRONG JULY HEATING AND MIXING...MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. GUSTY S WINDS 15-20 KTS
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY.

05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 93 76 94 76 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 92 73 93 74 / 0 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 72 91 73 93 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 74 91 72 94 72 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 75 93 74 92 74 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 76 93 77 95 78 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 74 91 74 93 74 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 75 91 75 93 74 / 0 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 91 72 92 72 / 0 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 90 71 91 71 / 10 5 0 0 0

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ092-093-
102-103-116>118-129>131-141.

/78

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1230 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
NO REAL CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE KDRT FORECAST DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. S/SE WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOOKING FOR WINDS TO BE S/SE AT 10-15 KNOTS. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR 03Z-05Z AND AROUND 11Z
FOR KDRT. CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z-17Z THURSDAY WITH S/SE
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...WE HAVE
REMOVED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A CARRIZO SPRINGS TO UVALDE TO
KERRVILLE LINE WHILE MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS WEST OF THAT LINE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND AREAS EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW EJECTS TO THE NE...SO A
GRADUAL DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES OVER PARTS OF
VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL...AND KINNEY COUNTIES WHERE LOW CLOUDS
KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S YESTERDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TODAY TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ELSEWHERE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT SAT/AUS WITH IFR AT DRT.
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. ISOLATED SHRAS
CURRENTLY NW OF SAT...OVER HILL COUNTRY...WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY NORTH
OF DRT. OTHERWISE...S WINDS WILL BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE... /SLIGHT INCREASE IN MORNING POPS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/
HIGH PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO EXTEND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY THIS MORNING. NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG A STRIPE
FROM EAGLE PASS TO JUST WEST OF LLANO...SO THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
SHOULD SEE SOME EXTRA RAIN POTENTIAL BEFORE THE DRY AIR SURGE
MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER INLAND LATE TODAY. RAPID REFRESH MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DECREASING COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A COMPACT HEAVY RAIN PATTERN ALONG A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY WILL BE PINCHED NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT
NOT BEFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FELL OVER A
FEW LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE KICKER TO FORCE RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NW IS EXPECTED TO BE A SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OFF THE GULF AND A SUBSIDENT REGION OF A WESTWARD MOVING
TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. THE INFLUENCES SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING THE DEEP MOISTURE LAYER OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY OVER AREAS W
OF ECU/DRT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CA
COAST IS SHARPENING THE BUILD-UP OF UPPER RIDGING OVER NRN MEXICO
INTO TX.

MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT...AND
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FOR A WHILE AFTER TODAY. THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD CURVE NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US...BUT ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF
GOOD SUMMER BREEZES IS EXPECTED OVER TX WHILE THE FASTER ZONAL/SW
FLOW ALOFT TAKES TIME TO RETREAT NWD. THE WELL MIXED GULF
INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME THE WARMING TREND
VERY SLOW IN THE SHORT-TERM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCES SUGGEST A DROP-OFF TREND IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BY FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
ACCELERATION OF THE WARMING TREND FOR MAXES AND ALSO ENABLE
SLIGHTLY LOWER NIGHTTIME MINS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD ON A
CONTINUED RIDGE BUILD-UP OVER TX/NM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SEA-BREEZE OVER THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. AS MUCH DRIER AIR SETTLES BENEATH THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP INTO THE MID 90S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG I-35...WITH A FEW AREAS TO THE SW POSSIBLY
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. AS WITH MOST OF THE RECENT EL-NINO
INFLUENCED WARM SEASONS...THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT VEGETATION OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 IN THIS FIRST WEEK OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 75 92 74 92 / - - 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 75 92 73 92 / - - 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 92 73 92 / - 10 0 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 90 72 91 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 75 93 74 94 / 30 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 91 73 92 / - 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 93 73 93 / - 0 0 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 92 73 92 / - 10 0 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 75 92 74 92 / - 0 - 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 75 92 74 92 / - 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 93 74 93 / - 0 - 0 -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1146 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL RUNS...WE HAVE
REMOVED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A CARRIZO SPRINGS TO UVALDE TO
KERRVILLE LINE WHILE MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS WEST OF THAT LINE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND AREAS EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW EJECTS TO THE NE...SO A
GRADUAL DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES OVER PARTS OF
VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL...AND KINNEY COUNTIES WHERE LOW CLOUDS
KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S YESTERDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TODAY TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ELSEWHERE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

138 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 932 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GIVEN THAT WE SAW LIMITED RAINFALL TUESDAY...THINK ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AT BEST...SO FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOLLOWED THE 04Z HRRR AND 00Z HI-RES ARW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARD THE HI-RES ARW-GFS-ECWMF ENTERING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...NOT CHANGING THE AIRMASS SO MUGGY LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO
THE LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION AND
LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT AREAS OF IFR-LIFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAD FALLEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA INTO MARYLAND
TONIGHT...THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.
MVFR/IFR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE...SUBJECT TO DAILY
THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTRW EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR- VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

303 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL IL AND IN/MI
BORDER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
THAT COULD CLIP KENOSHA COUNTY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD INTO OUR SE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE 08.17 HRRR MODEL ISN/T AS OPTIMISTIC WITH
THE PRECIP CHANCES AS IT IS KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS SLOWLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE OTHER SYNOPTIC
MODELS IN BRINGING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMTS IN THE SE SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO INTRODUCED CHANCES OF -RA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LONE ROCK AREA.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
SRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU NT-FRI. 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER WI DURING THIS TIME WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASANT SUMMER WX IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WI SAT/SAT NT. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 1.8 INCHES AS WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION ENSUES. ONLY MARGINAL CAPE IS EXPECTED VIA POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT SHOWERS AND SOME TSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY SAT AFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND SAT NT OVER ALL OF
SRN WI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

FOR SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY BUT
POSSIBLY BECOME CUTOFF OVER LOWER MI WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WITHIN NW FLOW. THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND MAY AFFECT THE AREA INTO TUE. THUS THERE WILL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUE NT
AND WED.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES AS CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD STAY WITHIN VFR CRITERIA. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE ENW TAF SITE AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
TRANSLATES NORTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM THESE
SHOWERS. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE MSN
TAF SITE NEAR LONE ROCK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING