Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
959 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL ELEVATE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER PATTERN THIS EVENING IS DEFINED UP AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATED OVER NEW MEXICO AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NUDGE EAST...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION TO MORE OF A POSITIVE
NE-SW TILT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVER FAR SW
NEW MEXICO AND COCHISE COUNTY IN FAR SE ARIZONA HAS HELPED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA HAS BEEN RATHER QUIET. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN MCV THAT TRACKED NORTH THRU THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THE REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST SONORA LATE THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I
UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS
SHOW A RIDGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE CLOUDS
ARE MOSTLY LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND PUSHED
INTO COCHISE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV SEEMINGLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES
AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. NORMALLY WHEN THESE
FEATURES DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THE CONVECTION TENDS TO DEVELOP ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT IS THE CASE CURRENTLY WITH
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHWEST OF
TUCSON THROUGH PARTS OF THE METRO AND INTO THE CATALINA`S. THESE
STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER PARTS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AS WELL. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY SEEN OVER COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.
THE 17Z RUN OF THE HRRR WANTS TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS WE
HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...AND THIS WOULD GIVE CREDANCE TO THE NOTION
THAT THE MCV TENDS TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY NEAR THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR
(EVEN THE 16Z RUN) WERE SHOWING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...GIVEN THAT TODAY IS THE FOURTH...WITH
PLENTY OF EVENING FESTIVITIES SCHEDULED...THINK THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WOULD BE TO KEEP THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. THEN...IF SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE 17Z RUN OF
THE HRRR WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS CORRECT...THE EVENING SHIFT
CAN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LOWER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING EVENING HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS.
MODELS SUGGEST SUNDAY WITH BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE MCV HAVING
MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME. IF WE SEE MORE SUN
TOMORROW...THEN WE SHOULD DEFINITELY HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY.
BY MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
WINDS...WHICH WILL PUSH MOISTURE EASTWARD...THUS LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/06Z.
ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE IS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AGAIN THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE OF WEAK -SHRA/-TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/
-SHRA WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
40-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF BRIEF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT REDUCED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY. THEREAFTER...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. GENERALLY
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
927 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES WILL KEEP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AGAIN TODAY...
DECREASING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR SOME BEACHES EACH DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED WELL INLAND. THE MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2600 FT. THIS
WAS ABOUT 300 FT DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY ANS THE INVERSION SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVERALL
AND HAD ACTUALLY BECOME NEUTRAL FOR A TIME THIS MORNING TO NV.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AT 9 AM PDT IN THE WIND-PRONE DESERT PASSES AND
SLOPES WERE UNDER 25 MPH.
GIVEN THE INFERRED DEPTH OF THE STRATUS DECK AND VERY STRONG
INVERSION...CLEARING MY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY MOST AREAS...
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN...EVEN AT THE COAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE STRATUS SPREADS BACK INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEST OF THE MTS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...BUT STILL SEASONALLY HOT IN THE DESERTS.
CONVECTION PARAMETERS...
MOISTURE...BASED ON GPS SENSORS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THE PW
LEVEL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MTS
ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT OVER THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS WHERE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW 1K FT DEEP HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S F...SOME OF THIS HAS BLED INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS. (MODERATE)
STABILITY...BASED ON THE NKX SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN
12Z YESTERDAY WITH A MODIFIED MU CAPE OF 604 J/K VS. 247 YESTERDAY.
THE 12Z NAM12 BASED MODEL SOUNDINGS AT 21Z OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INDICATE MU CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/K WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6. EXPERIMENTAL NUCAPS (SATELLITE DERIVED
SOUNDING) OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AT 10Z SHOWS LOW VALUES OF
MODIFIED CAPE. (WEAK/MODERATE)
WINDS...WEAK WINDS BELOW 500 MBS SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOLAR INSOLATION...FULL SUN EXPECTED FOR HEATING (STRONG)
MODEL FORECAST PRECIP...THE LATEST 12Z WRFEMS HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM RUN...OTHERWISE
DRY. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 15Z HRRR SHOWS MODEST PRECIP
BULLS EYES AT MOUNTAIN TOP ALL ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTH INTO BAJA.
SO BASED ON THE ABOVE...THUNDER IS EXPECTED AND CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER DESERTS...AND MAYBE OVER
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER CAN BE DRAWN UP THE LOWER DESERT SLOPE TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. PARAMETERS LOOK
WEAKER ON MON...WITH LESS MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIP INDICATED BY THE LATEST WRF OR NAM.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEK
CONTINUES THE THEME OF BREAKING DOWN THE REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR EAST
PACIFIC AND ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO LIFT THE CUT-OFF LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE BLOCK NE THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY FRI. THIS
PATTERN WILL LOCK OUT THE MONSOON OVER SOCAL...AND LOCK IN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE SUMMER DAYS AND EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THIS WEEK. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK DIMINISHES AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC MODEL STRENGTHENS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SW...WHILE THE GFS FAVORS MORE OF A
WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND TROUGHING. THIS IS MOSTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD...AND WHILE BOTH SUGGEST DRY WEATHER...THE EXTENT OF
MARINE INFLUENCE INLAND...AND RESULTANT DAYTIME TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT.
&&
.AVIATION... 051610Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR 17-19Z TO ABOUT 5 MILES FROM THE COAST...WITH BASES
1400-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL AND AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURED. LOCAL VIS 2-4 MI WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 19Z...AREAS
OF BKN STRATUS WILL LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 01Z AND COVER MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH SIMILAR
CLOUD BASES.
MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BASES MOSTLY
9000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL WEST SFC WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FEW
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE... 900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...FRONT TO BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING
OVER 120-160% OF NORMAL...MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE POTENTIAL FLOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
HELPING TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SO AS DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THROUGH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
CO...THIS WILL SEND A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS. FORCING APPEARS A BIT STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SUSPECT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SPREAD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN A
GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CO WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30-
35 MPH AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GFS STILL THE MORE HEAVY HANDED OF THE MODELS. MAJORITY
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HARD TO ARGUE WITH KEEPING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE MONSOON
PLUME OUT WEST...AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/-
TSRA ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. MAJORITY OF THE
PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM/MCS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD START TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE EAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS NV
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP WATERS FALL OFF A BIT IN BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...SO PERHAPS
A LITTLE LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OUT THAT WAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.
DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS...SO ASSUMING WE CAN
REALIZE THE INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO
STRONG STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...THEN STRONGER CONVECTION MAY STAY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD OVER STABLE
AIRMASS...AND DIMINISHING. VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SCENARIO.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH PLAINS LOOKING
MORE CAPPED. MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25. BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. -KT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT MOST
PRECIP TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA FARTHER EAST. ON TUESDAY...MUCH THE SAME SET-UP
AS MONDAY...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE AGAIN LACK OF INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS WILL MEAN
ONLY SOME WEAK CONVECTION EAST OF I-25. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP BACK
UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE MAXES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WED AND
THU...WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW STAYS S-SW AS UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND UPPER HIGH IS FAIRLY FAR EAST OVER THE GULF
COAST. INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON AS CAPES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1000 J/KG...AND WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES BOTH WED/THU. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF
USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA CYCLE AS WELL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS ALL AREAS AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW UPWARD CRAWL...WITH READINGS BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THU AFTERNOON.
FRI-SUN PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER/WARMER AS WESTERN UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND FLAT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO.
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MONSOON MOISTURE TAP WILL STAY SUPPRESSED TO
OUR SOUTH...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S/90S LOWER ELEVATIONS...NOT TOO HOT BY MID
JULY STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
KCOS AND KPUB...
A BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH BETWEEN 21-23Z BRINGING A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
VCTS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF
-TSRA FOR THE TAF SITES. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION STARTING AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP STARTING AROUND 1300Z
AS A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AROUND 17-18Z MONDAY MORNING.
KALS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LUKINBEAL
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...AEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI AS OF NOON. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON TEMPS THERE. STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO GO UP
ALONG THE CT COAST BUT GRADUALLY WITH MODIFIED SWLY FLOW. MAINLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN WITH SOME CU. CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE MOST SWRN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH
MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO
NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT
KHPN/KISP.
S/SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB BTWN 19 AND 20Z...WITH S
SEABREEZE WORKING INTO KLGA BTWN 18 AND 19Z. WINDS LIGHTEN THIS
EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WITH
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS
LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW
BECOMING NE.
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU...BUT
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1226 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI AS OF NOON. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON TEMPS THERE. STILL SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO GO UP
ALONG THE CT COAST BUT GRADUALLY WITH MODIFIED SWLY FLOW. MAINLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN WITH SOME CU. CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE MOST SWRN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN
TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THU...BUT
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALSO...POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED
FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN
TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED
THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
943 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED
FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
ANY LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY. VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LIGHT W/NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT
TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED
THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
706 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY IN NYC METRO...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
ANY LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY. VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LIGHT W/NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY IN NYC METRO...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL
PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT
MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND
SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND
PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL
NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.DISCUSSION... MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME EVEN MORE MOIST AS
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS PULL CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CUMULUS
ALREADY STARTING TO FORM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THREE COUNTIES OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE 9AM BUOY OBS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC SUGGEST
THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAD SHIFTED TEMPORARILY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL BUT FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH AGAIN PER THE 05/06Z GFS RUN.
MADE EARLIER UPDATES TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING POP AND WX GRIDS NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS/SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE
COAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
REST OF THE FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING LOOKS
GOOD.
.AVIATION...THE 5SM IN HAZE AT KLEE AND KTIX SHOULD MIX OUT MID
MORNING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL/SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPO MVFR 16Z-19Z VCTS COASTAL LOCATIONS KTIX SOUTH. TEMPO MVFR 20Z-
23Z VCTS INTERIOR SITES.
.MARINE...NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE FORMED
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY NOON...COME ASHORE...CROSSED THE INDIAN
RIVER LAGOON AND HEADING FOR INTERSTATE 95. SEA BREEZE A LITTLE
LATER...BY MID AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
BOATERS ON THE WATER NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT FOR EASTWARD MOVING STORMS.
PREVIOUS AFD
PERSISTENT WX PATTERN AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER THE MID
ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE PARKED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. NO SIG CHANGE IN POSITION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH THE
AXIS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL AND EXTENDING TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT SRLY
WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR...BCMG MORE W/SW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR AS
THE MID LVL PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED OVER S FL. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL ACRS THE PENINSULA WITH 00Z RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 1.8" AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING H100-
H70 MEAN RH ARND 70PCT...H85-H50 RH BTWN 60-70PCT.
ALOFT...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ENHANCED MID LVL VORT MAX THAT WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE PENINSULA ON SAT MVG OFF THE E FL COAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE H85-H50 WRLY FLOW WITH MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...H30-H20 ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OMEGA PATTERN
OVERHEAD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE GULF STREAM...
GENERATING WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT DESPITE WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KTS.
WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW NWD STORM MOTION...
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEAR FULL SUN THEY ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO
THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY
ARE IN THE U80S/L90S...WHICH SHOULD BE MET BY NOON. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND...SCT SHRAS/TSRA WILL DVLP W OF I-95...BCMG
NMRS ALONG AND W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.
THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION DVLPG AFT 21Z...REASONABLE GIVEN
THE DIMINISHED MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. HOWEVER...ALL THIS WILL DO
IS ALLOW THE LOW LVL AIRMASS TO COME TO A BOIL BY THE TIME THE SEA
BREEZES MERGE. LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS PSBL WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -8C
AND -9C. LIGHT WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME BLOWBACK
POTENTIAL...BUT WINDS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION
PAST THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE THEY BURN OUT BY EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
MON-WED...GFS/ECM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICKLY NEWD-DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A TUTT-TYPE LOW WITH A RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION WILL RETROGRADE WWD ACROSS THE CTRL BAHAMAS TUE-TUE NIGHT
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE FL STRAITS BY WED NIGHT.
WHILE THE MORE CONVECTIVELY SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE TUTT WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL STILL SEE GRADUAL MEAN DRYING ASCD WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF BY
ABOUT 10 PCT EACH DAY FROM 50 COAST/60 INLAND MONDAY TO 30 COAST/40
INLAND BY WED.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN CWA...
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...U80S/90F
AT/NEAR THE COAST AND L90S FARTHER INLAND. MINS AROUND 73-75F.
THU-SUN...THE TUTT OVER THE FL STRAITS DEFORMS AS ITS REMAINS DAMPEN
OUT WWD INTO THE SRN GOMEX. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FL REMAINS IN
CONTROL INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT BY SUNDAY SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE ERN
CONUS/WRN ATLC. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION FARTHER
EAST OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SRN/SERN CONUS AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NRLY OVER
FL AND THE ADJCT ATLC. THE ECM SHOWS BROADER BUT LESS AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC WITH LOWER H50 HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER MID/UPPER FLOW AS A BROAD COL DEVELOPS OVHD BY SUN.
THE GFS "BACK DOORS" A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE SWD THIS WEEKEND. THE
ECM DOES SHOW SOME MOISTENING TAKING PLACE...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE
SAME EXTENT. TEH CURRENT FCST CONTINUES TO SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
PROBS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THU-FRI...SLOWLY RISING BY NEXT SAT
OWING TO AT LEAST SOME ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MEAN MOISTURE. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION THRU 06/12Z...
SFC WINDS: THRU 05/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 05/13Z-05/16Z...BCMG
E/SE 8-12KTS COASTAL SITES...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S 5-8KTS. BTWN
05/17Z-05/20Z...BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS ALNG I-4 CORRIDOR...AFT 05/20Z AT
KLEE. BTWN 06/03Z-06/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 05/15Z-05/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 05/18Z-05/24Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...BTWN 05/22Z-06/01Z SLGT CHC +TSRA
WITH SFC G40KTS INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN
06/01Z-06/03Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE PENINSULA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC
WATERS... S/SE OFF THE TREASURE COAST...S/SW N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
WINDS BCMG E/SE NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.
MON-THU...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THE MAOR IN A
FAVORABLE REGIME FOR BOATING WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WIND
FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3FT RANGE WITH THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRC NEAR THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO MODESTLY INCREASE AND BACK MORE
ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 71 90 74 / 40 10 60 30
MCO 95 74 92 74 / 60 20 60 30
MLB 89 73 89 75 / 40 10 50 20
VRB 90 71 90 74 / 40 10 40 20
LEE 95 72 92 76 / 60 20 60 30
SFB 94 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30
ORL 95 74 92 75 / 60 20 60 30
FPR 89 72 90 74 / 40 10 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WX PATTERN AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF OVER THE MID
ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE PARKED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. NO SIG CHANGE IN POSITION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH THE
AXIS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL AND EXTENDING TO THE TX COAST. LIGHT SRLY
WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR...BCMG MORE W/SW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR AS
THE MID LVL PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED OVER S FL. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL ACRS THE PENINSULA WITH 00Z RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 1.8" AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING H100-
H70 MEAN RH ARND 70PCT...H85-H50 RH BTWN 60-70PCT.
ALOFT...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ENHANCED MID LVL VORT MAX THAT WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE PENINSULA ON SAT MVG OFF THE E FL COAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE H85-H50 WRLY FLOW WITH MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...H30-H20 ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OMEGA PATTERN
OVERHEAD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE GULF STREAM...
GENERATING WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT DESPITE WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KTS.
WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW NWD STORM MOTION...
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEAR FULL SUN THEY ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO
THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY
ARE IN THE U80S/L90S...WHICH SHOULD BE MET BY NOON. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND...SCT SHRAS/TSRA WILL DVLP W OF I-95...BCMG
NMRS ALONG AND W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.
THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION DVLPG AFT 21Z...REASONABLE GIVEN
THE DIMINISHED MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. HOWEVER...ALL THIS WILL DO
IS ALLOW THE LOW LVL AIRMASS TO COME TO A BOIL BY THE TIME THE SEA
BREEZES MERGE. LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS PSBL WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -8C
AND -9C. LIGHT WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME BLOWBACK
POTENTIAL...BUT WINDS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION
PAST THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE THEY BURN OUT BY EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
MON-WED...GFS/ECM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD WWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICKLY NEWD-DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A TUTT-TYPE LOW WITH A RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION WILL RETROGRADE WWD ACROSS THE CTRL BAHAMAS TUE-TUE NIGHT
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE FL STRAITS BY WED NIGHT.
WHILE THE MORE CONVECTIVELY SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE TUTT WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL STILL SEE GRADUAL MEAN DRYING ASCD WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF BY
ABOUT 10 PCT EACH DAY FROM 50 COAST/60 INLAND MONDAY TO 30 COAST/40
INLAND BY WED.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN CWA...
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...U80S/90F
AT/NEAR THE COAST AND L90S FARTHER INLAND. MINS AROUND 73-75F.
THU-SUN...THE TUTT OVER THE FL STRAITS DEFORMS AS ITS REMAINS DAMPEN
OUT WWD INTO THE SRN GOMEX. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FL REMAINS IN
CONTROL INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT BY SUNDAY SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE ERN
CONUS/WRN ATLC. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION FARTHER
EAST OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SRN/SERN CONUS AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NRLY OVER
FL AND THE ADJCT ATLC. THE ECM SHOWS BROADER BUT LESS AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC WITH LOWER H50 HEIGHTS
AND WEAKER MID/UPPER FLOW AS A BROAD COL DEVELOPS OVHD BY SUN.
THE GFS "BACK DOORS" A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE SWD THIS WEEKEND. THE
ECM DOES SHOW SOME MOISTENING TAKING PLACE...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE
SAME EXTENT. TEH CURRENT FCST CONTINUES TO SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
PROBS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THU-FRI...SLOWLY RISING BY NEXT SAT
OWING TO AT LEAST SOME ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MEAN MOISTURE. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION THRU 06/12Z...
SFC WINDS: THRU 05/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 05/13Z-05/16Z...BCMG
E/SE 8-12KTS COASTAL SITES...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S 5-8KTS. BTWN
05/17Z-05/20Z...BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS ALNG I-4 CORRIDOR...AFT 05/20Z AT
KLEE. BTWN 06/03Z-06/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 05/15Z-05/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 05/18Z-05/24Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...BTWN 05/22Z-06/01Z SLGT CHC +TSRA
WITH SFC G40KTS INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN
06/01Z-06/03Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE PENINSULA
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC
WATERS... S/SE OFF THE TREASURE COAST...S/SW N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
WINDS BCMG E/SE NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.
MON-THU...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THE MAOR IN A
FAVORABLE REGIME FOR BOATING WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WIND
FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3FT RANGE WITH THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRC NEAR THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO MODESTLY INCREASE AND BACK MORE
ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 71 90 74 / 40 10 60 30
MCO 95 74 92 74 / 60 20 60 30
MLB 89 73 89 75 / 40 10 50 20
VRB 90 71 90 74 / 40 10 40 20
LEE 95 72 92 76 / 60 20 60 30
SFB 94 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30
ORL 95 74 92 75 / 60 20 60 30
FPR 89 72 90 74 / 40 10 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TN WELL DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW.
WV STILL SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GOMEX. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTH AND THEN IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NORTHERN PRECIP IS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW...AND MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE. THE PRECIP DOWN SOUTH IS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP
DOWN SOUTH...WHEREAS THE WRF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP UP
NORTH. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
HOW THE CONVECTION DOWN ALONG THE COAST EVOLVES.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS
ITS CLOSED CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS
HOUR. ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING AND
HAS ROTATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED ANOTHER BAND FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER BY
MID MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH ALABAMA. WILL
INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND INTO COLUMBUS THROUGH 12Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
THEREAFTER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THINKING WE WILL HAVE
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED SPOKE OF VORTICITY COMING UP FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION TO AFFECT AREAS FROM CSG TO AHN AND SOUTHWARD. SECOND AREA
WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS LOW CLOUDS EVENTUALLY THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. UPPER
LOW THEN PROVIDES THE NECESSARY ENERGY FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF
STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH GA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ATL METRO BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO -10C AT 500MB WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH WINDS AND
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
DUE TO THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP FOR NORTH GA...WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.
UPPER LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND HINTS OF SOME DRIER
AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WORKING IN SHOULD RESULT IN REDUCED POPS.
SOME GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MONDAY BUT WOULD
LIKE ATMOSPHERE TO PROVE IT TO ME FIRST BASED ON ACTIVE PATTERN
THIS SUMMER. HAVE THEREFORE GONE CLOSER TO 40 TO 50 POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
DEESE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH BY MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER RIDGE
INFLUENCE BEGINS TO TAKE BETTER HOLD BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
RIDGE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HELP PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HEAT WILL WARRANT HOLDING
ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY... AND
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING MAX HEATING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MAYBE AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM. MODEL SOUNDINGS PROGGING SOME LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE GONE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE WITH MVFR CIGS AND
SCT IFR. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH SCT COVERAGE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 82 68 86 70 / 50 50 30 20
ATLANTA 81 70 84 71 / 50 40 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 75 63 81 64 / 50 50 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 81 67 84 69 / 50 40 40 20
COLUMBUS 83 70 87 72 / 60 40 40 20
GAINESVILLE 80 68 84 70 / 50 50 30 20
MACON 86 69 88 71 / 60 40 40 20
ROME 81 68 85 69 / 60 30 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 68 85 70 / 60 30 40 20
VIDALIA 90 71 88 72 / 60 50 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
..SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO MOVE IN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 69 86 69 / 60 40 50 20
ATLANTA 81 69 84 71 / 60 40 50 20
BLAIRSVILLE 76 63 79 64 / 70 50 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 80 68 84 68 / 70 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 85 71 87 72 / 60 40 50 30
GAINESVILLE 80 68 83 70 / 60 50 50 20
MACON 88 70 88 71 / 60 40 50 20
ROME 81 68 85 68 / 70 40 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 82 69 85 69 / 60 40 50 20
VIDALIA 92 72 89 72 / 60 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
253 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
1123 AM CDT
THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO BRING COOLER LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES ONSHORE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOCATIONS FARTHER OUT IS HELPING WARM MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS HAVE ALSO STARTED BREAKING OUT OF THE
THIN HAZY OVERCAST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT AT ORD
SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 875 MB AND THEN A
WARM CAPPING LAYER ABOVE THAT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY ARE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S...WHILE MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS IOWA THEY ARE REACHING
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THAT AREA WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION IN THE SPC SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA POST INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LINGERING HAZY SKIES
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
UPSTAIRS WITH MORE DOMINANT UPPER JET HEADING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON
BAY AND WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING JET HEADED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY DRY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KDVN AND KILX AND UPSTREAM
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY..THOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLIP THE AREA ALONG
WITH LINGERING SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS LIE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER WELL NORTHWEST BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TODAY AS WELL. 850/925 TEMPS GET A 2-3C DEGREE BOOST AND WITH THE
MIXING DOES SOLIDLY SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S. LOCAL CLIMO
SUGGESTING A 90 NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT KEPT TEMPS
UNDER THAT GIVEN THE SMOKE STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA. AGAIN A LAKE
BREEZE SEEMS A GOOD BET...BUT WITH MIXING TO 850 TAPPING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS...FEELING AT THIS POINT THAT IT REMAINS EAST OF
ORD/MDW. ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS AT OR BELOW 80.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A NORTHWARD
SHOVE IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MOVES THROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD A LAKE BREEZE AT BAY.
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN FROM ITS
SPEEDIER CURRENT TRACK...AS THE UPPER JET INITIALLY REMAINS PARALLEL
TO THE LOWER LEVEL FRONT. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY
WINDS...COINCIDENT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AS ADDITIONAL COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR IN OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODULATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF...WHILE
TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INITIALLY DRY AND
COOLER STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL
WAVES TO BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TO REMAIN AT OR JUST EAST OF ORD/MDW TODAY.
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES LAKE BREEZE MAKING WEAK INROADS
ATTM. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO STAY JUST EAST OF MDW AND
ORD TODAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SHUNT THE LAKE BREEZE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL CONFINE THE EAST WINDS TO WITHIN 5 MILES
OF THE SHORE. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
REMAIN AT 4-5KFT TODAY. THEY MAY OCCASIONALLY GATHER INTO A BROKEN
DECK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO
RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DECENT MIXING TO 850MB WILL ALLOW 25KT WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FROPA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-LOW IN LAKE BREEZE STAYING EAST OF TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE MORNING TSRA. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.
THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
224 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
1123 AM CDT
THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO BRING COOLER LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES ONSHORE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOCATIONS FARTHER OUT IS HELPING WARM MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS HAVE ALSO STARTED BREAKING OUT OF THE
THIN HAZY OVERCAST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT AT ORD
SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 875 MB AND THEN A
WARM CAPPING LAYER ABOVE THAT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY ARE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S...WHILE MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS IOWA THEY ARE REACHING
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THAT AREA WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION IN THE SPC SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA POST INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LINGERING HAZY SKIES
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
UPSTAIRS WITH MORE DOMINANT UPPER JET HEADING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON
BAY AND WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING JET HEADED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY DRY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KDVN AND KILX AND UPSTREAM
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY..THOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLIP THE AREA ALONG
WITH LINGERING SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS LIE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER WELL NORTHWEST BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TODAY AS WELL. 850/925 TEMPS GET A 2-3C DEGREE BOOST AND WITH THE
MIXING DOES SOLIDLY SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S. LOCAL CLIMO
SUGGESTING A 90 NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT KEPT TEMPS
UNDER THAT GIVEN THE SMOKE STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA. AGAIN A LAKE
BREEZE SEEMS A GOOD BET...BUT WITH MIXING TO 850 TAPPING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS...FEELING AT THIS POINT THAT IT REMAINS EAST OF
ORD/MDW. ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS AT OR BELOW 80.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A NORTHWARD
SHOVE IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MOVES THROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD A LAKE BREEZE AT BAY.
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN FROM ITS
SPEEDIER CURRENT TRACK...AS THE UPPER JET INITIALLY REMAINS PARALLEL
TO THE LOWER LEVEL FRONT. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY
WINDS...COINCIDENT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AS ADDITIONAL COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR IN OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODULATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF...WHILE
TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INITIALLY DRY AND
COOLER STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL
WAVES TO BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TO REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW TODAY.
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES LAKE BREEZE MAKING WEAK INROADS
ATTM. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO STAY JUST EAST OF MDW AND
ORD TODAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SHUNT THE LAKE BREEZE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL CONFINE THE EAST WINDS TO WITHIN 5 MILES
OF THE SHORE. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
REMAIN AT 4-5KFT TODAY. THEY MAY OCCASIONALLY GATHER INTO A BROKEN
DECK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO
RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DECENT MIXING TO 850MB WILL ALLOW 25KT WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FROPA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE STAYING EAST OF TAF SITES.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE MORNING TSRA. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.
THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
1123 AM CDT
THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO BRING COOLER LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES ONSHORE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOCATIONS FARTHER OUT IS HELPING WARM MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS HAVE ALSO STARTED BREAKING OUT OF THE
THIN HAZY OVERCAST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT AT ORD
SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 875 MB AND THEN A
WARM CAPPING LAYER ABOVE THAT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY ARE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S...WHILE MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS IOWA THEY ARE REACHING
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THAT AREA WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION IN THE SPC SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA POST INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LINGERING HAZY SKIES
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
UPSTAIRS WITH MORE DOMINANT UPPER JET HEADING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON
BAY AND WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING JET HEADED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY DRY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KDVN AND KILX AND UPSTREAM
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY..THOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLIP THE AREA ALONG
WITH LINGERING SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS LIE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER WELL NORTHWEST BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TODAY AS WELL. 850/925 TEMPS GET A 2-3C DEGREE BOOST AND WITH THE
MIXING DOES SOLIDLY SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S. LOCAL CLIMO
SUGGESTING A 90 NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT KEPT TEMPS
UNDER THAT GIVEN THE SMOKE STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA. AGAIN A LAKE
BREEZE SEEMS A GOOD BET...BUT WITH MIXING TO 850 TAPPING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS...FEELING AT THIS POINT THAT IT REMAINS EAST OF
ORD/MDW. ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS AT OR BELOW 80.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A NORTHWARD
SHOVE IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MOVES THROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD A LAKE BREEZE AT BAY.
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN FROM ITS
SPEEDIER CURRENT TRACK...AS THE UPPER JET INITIALLY REMAINS PARALLEL
TO THE LOWER LEVEL FRONT. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY
WINDS...COINCIDENT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AS ADDITIONAL COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR IN OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODULATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF...WHILE
TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INITIALLY DRY AND
COOLER STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL
WAVES TO BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TO REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW TODAY.
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES LAKE BREEZE MAKING WEAK INROADS
ATTM. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO STAY JUST EAST OF MDW AND
ORD TODAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SHUNT THE LAKE BREEZE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL CONFINE THE EAST WINDS TO WITHIN 5 MILES
OF THE SHORE. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
REMAIN AT 4-5KFT TODAY. THEY MAY OCCASIONALLY GATHER INTO A BROKEN
DECK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO
RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DECENT MIXING TO 850MB WILL ALLOW 25KT WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FROPA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE STAYING EAST OF TAF SITES.
* HIGH IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE MORNING TSRA. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
309 AM CDT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT
WILL BE LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS
WIND PERSISTING TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO INITIALLY 15 TO
25 KT...BUT THEN INCREASING TO 30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE 30KT WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF STRONGEST
SPEEDS. STILL THINK THAT HAZARDOUS WINDS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NEARSHORES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH GALES DONT
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A WINDOW
OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTH HALF LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITH LINGERING HIGHER WAVES
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF AND NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
1123 AM CDT
THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE HAS STARTED TO BRING COOLER LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES ONSHORE IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOCATIONS FARTHER OUT IS HELPING WARM MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS OF LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS HAVE ALSO STARTED BREAKING OUT OF THE
THIN HAZY OVERCAST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT AT ORD
SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 875 MB AND THEN A
WARM CAPPING LAYER ABOVE THAT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY ARE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S...WHILE MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS IOWA THEY ARE REACHING
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT SHORT TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THAT AREA WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTION IN THE SPC SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE WARM CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA POST INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LINGERING HAZY SKIES
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
UPSTAIRS WITH MORE DOMINANT UPPER JET HEADING NORTH TOWARD HUDSON
BAY AND WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING JET HEADED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY DRY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KDVN AND KILX AND UPSTREAM
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY..THOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLIP THE AREA ALONG
WITH LINGERING SKY OBSCURATION DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS LIE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER WELL NORTHWEST BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TODAY AS WELL. 850/925 TEMPS GET A 2-3C DEGREE BOOST AND WITH THE
MIXING DOES SOLIDLY SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S. LOCAL CLIMO
SUGGESTING A 90 NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...BUT KEPT TEMPS
UNDER THAT GIVEN THE SMOKE STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA. AGAIN A LAKE
BREEZE SEEMS A GOOD BET...BUT WITH MIXING TO 850 TAPPING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS...FEELING AT THIS POINT THAT IT REMAINS EAST OF
ORD/MDW. ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS AT OR BELOW 80.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GETS A NORTHWARD
SHOVE IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON MOVES THROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD A LAKE BREEZE AT BAY.
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LOOK TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS DOWN FROM ITS
SPEEDIER CURRENT TRACK...AS THE UPPER JET INITIALLY REMAINS PARALLEL
TO THE LOWER LEVEL FRONT. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...SLOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND GUSTY
WINDS...COINCIDENT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AS ADDITIONAL COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR IN OFF THE LAKE. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODULATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF...WHILE
TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INITIALLY DRY AND
COOLER STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL
WAVES TO BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS TODAY.
RODRIGUEZ/MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH VIS RESTRICTION
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SMOKE/HAZE/FOG IN PLACE FROM
OVERNIGHT WONT LIKELY DIMINISH OR MIX OUT UNTIL WINDS PICK
UP...LIKELY IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. HOWEVER...VIS SHOULD
BE SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THAT TIME. VFR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS REMAINING SOUTH TODAY.
RODRIGUEZ/MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE MORNING TSRA. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
309 AM CDT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT
WILL BE LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS
WIND PERSISTING TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO INITIALLY 15 TO
25 KT...BUT THEN INCREASING TO 30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE 30KT WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF STRONGEST
SPEEDS. STILL THINK THAT HAZARDOUS WINDS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NEARSHORES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH GALES DONT
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A WINDOW
OF AT LEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTH HALF LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION OF GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITH LINGERING HIGHER WAVES
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF AND NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1108 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS CONTINUING TO BRING A RATHER QUIET WEATHER SCENE TO
CENTRAL THRU SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM
AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ANY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A RESULT...NO EVENING UPDATE WILL BE
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NICE 4TH OF JULY NIGHT LIES AHEAD FOR CENTRAL/SE IL FOR FIREWORK
DISPLAYS AT DUSK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB OVER CENTRAL IL
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K FT WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME HAZY
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WITH FAIR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING TOWARD DEWPOINTS OF 60-65F
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SE OF THE IL RIVER. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
APPEAR IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH HRRR NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
FORMATION AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS WEEK. LATEST NAM MODEL HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT AND
HAS IT JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...WHILE
THE REMAINING MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR EARLIER TRENDS OF BEING
JUST EAST OF I-55 BY THAT TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS
USED FOR THE EARLY WEEK WEATHER.
HAVE LIMITED MENTIONABLE POP`S MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WITH THE MAIN SHOW COMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE.
SUCH VALUES LINGER ACROSS AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF
ON STALLING THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF THIS INDEED STALLS OVER OUR AREA...BUT IN
THE MEANTIME WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POP`S SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW (5% ON LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK) AS
THE FRONT WOULD BE ARRIVING AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A NORTHWARD SURGE IN
THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO EJECT NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER PATTERNS ARE SHOWING A
FAIR RANGE IN THESE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MORE OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONVERGING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE GFS WITH IT MORE OVERHEAD
OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE EXACTLY TO FOCUS THE
HIGHER POP`S LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO AROUND 40%
UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT COMES INTO PLAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE THREAT FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS
IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT
WIND AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST CMI...DEC AND SPI MAY SEE THE LOWEST VSBYS
IN FOG/HAZE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES
FORM SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT BY 13Z/8AM...AFTER WHICH JUST SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH BASES OF 2500-3500 FEET
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY
AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 85 61 / 20 20 70 60
GCK 98 71 82 60 / 10 30 60 40
EHA 98 70 81 60 / 10 20 50 40
LBL 97 73 83 63 / 10 20 70 60
HYS 99 73 82 61 / 20 30 60 30
P28 98 74 89 66 / 10 10 70 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NOTHING LESS THAN VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25
KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING THEN DECREASE TONIGHT 10-20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 85 61 / 10 20 70 60
GCK 98 71 82 60 / 10 30 60 40
EHA 98 70 81 60 / 10 20 50 40
LBL 97 73 83 63 / 10 20 70 60
HYS 99 73 82 61 / 20 30 60 30
P28 97 74 89 66 / 20 10 70 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.
MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.
SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONCENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HAZE FROM AREA FIREWORKS WILL CAUSE MVFR VIS CONDS AT TOP/FOE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR VIS/CIG CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HRRR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF MHK EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...OMITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 85 61 / 10 30 70 60
GCK 98 71 82 60 / 10 30 60 40
EHA 98 70 81 60 / 10 30 50 40
LBL 97 73 83 63 / 10 20 70 60
HYS 99 73 82 61 / 10 40 60 30
P28 97 74 89 66 / 20 10 70 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...JUST WEST OF
THE TR-STATE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA A WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS. HOWEVER AM THINKING THE LARGE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 50 MB OR MORE AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF 30-40J/KG
WILL KEEP AN SEVERE STORMS FAIRLY SPOTTY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE STORMS OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
KANSAS. BY THE LATE EVENING LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DECLINE AS IT MOVES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE...EXPECT STORM
COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM MODELS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SINCE A SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD GO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WARMER AS THE DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A WARMER AIR MASS WITH IT.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTED ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DOES MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 71 85 61 / 10 30 70 60
GCK 98 71 82 60 / 10 30 60 40
EHA 98 70 81 60 / 10 30 50 40
LBL 97 73 83 63 / 10 20 70 60
HYS 99 73 82 61 / 10 40 60 30
P28 97 74 89 66 / 20 10 70 80
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION AND SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
AT 00Z SUNDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEING LOCATED NEAR THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AXIS
OVER EASTERN UTAH. A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA TO WESTERN KANSAS. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +10C AT
DODGE CITY TO +16C AT DENVER. AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE WAS ALSO
LOCATED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE +12 TO +14Z TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. A SURFACE AND 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES WITH MID 20C 850MB TEMPERATURES OBSERVED AT 00Z SUNDAY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT 03Z A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHERE WEAK 850MB-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WERE
LOCATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NEBRASKA WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-
70 CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE. 700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
AROUND 12 CELSIUS WHICH MAY INHIBIT AN MCS FROM DEVELOPING. TIMING
OF THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE FROM 10 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE OUT OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP, SOME COULD BE NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH QUARTER TO
LARGER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH STORMS IN THE HAYS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22
MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MILD AND FROM 68 TO 71 DEGREES.
FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 85 62 80 / 30 70 70 20
GCK 71 82 61 81 / 30 60 50 10
EHA 69 81 61 81 / 30 40 40 20
LBL 72 83 62 80 / 20 70 60 30
HYS 72 82 61 82 / 40 60 60 20
P28 74 89 66 79 / 10 70 80 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...JUST WEST OF
THE TR-STATE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA A WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS. HOWEVER AM THINKING THE LARGE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 50 MB OR MORE AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF 30-40J/KG
WILL KEEP AN SEVERE STORMS FAIRLY SPOTTY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
TONIGHT THE STORMS OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
KANSAS. BY THE LATE EVENING LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DECLINE AS IT MOVES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. IN ADDITION THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE...EXPECT STORM
COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
BASED ON THE NEAR TERM MODELS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SINCE A SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD GO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WARMER AS THE DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A WARMER AIR MASS WITH IT.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...BASED ON
LATEST GFS/NAM/SREF RUNS...TIMING OF FROPA THRU THE CWA HAS SLOWED.
MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTING TREK THRU THE REGION BY 00Z
MONDAY IN NE COLORADO...FOLLOWED BY 700MB TROUGH BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
MONDAY. THIS TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER AIDED BY
DYNAMICS OF TROUGH...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION THRU THE DAY
MONDAY AS FRONT REMAINS OVER EASTERN ZONES THRU 00Z TUESDAY. HIGH
PW/S VALUES STILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT HAVE SHIFTED
ENHANCEMENT IN RW TO +RW TO COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH. WARMEST LOWS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL OCCUR EARLY ON
AS FRONT BEGINS SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKING FOR NUMBERS TO RANGE
FROM LOWS 60S WEST TO NEAR 70F EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
ON MONDAY...WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL VALUES AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH.
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN
INCREASING WARMING TREND WITH CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR MUCH OF
TIME...IS EXPECTED. H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE AS WEEK PROGRESSES WITH WSW FLOW.
ALSO...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL WORK AROUND THE THE LOW...MOVE THRU
THE ROCKIES OVER THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WILL COMBINE WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHS TO GIVE
AREA CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME LEANING
TOWARDS THE WED/WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE GOING TO VARY
FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN DRY AND WARM WITH A SOUTHEAST BREEZE...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
A MODERATE CAP SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WITH
INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...AND
SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING...IT SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL FEW HOURS
SURROUNDING SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS TO MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TO PROVIDE MOIST
ADVECTION ALOFT BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE MCS TO SOME DEGREE INTO CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THIS
APPEARS TO FALL BETWEEN 3 AM AND 10 AM WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
BEING IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. MUCAPE MAY BE
ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME MODERATE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR BUT BELIEVE THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE LOW WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STONES...AND AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS...AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
WITH A WARM AND MUGGY DAY ENSUING. SO LONG AS SUNSHINE IS NOT
LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...AND IT SHOULD NOT BE BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 70. THIS SHOULD GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMAL INHIBITION BUT WHAT IS LACKING IS A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL WANT
TO WATCH ANY OUTFLOW THAT MAY DEVELOP WITH EARLY CONVECTION BUT FOR
NOW ONLY HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF A
MARYSVILLE TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...
QUALITY INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A LOCALIZED HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ON SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER SD AND NE, WHICH WILL GUIDE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS ON TRACK TO GET ABSORBED BY A DECENT
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN US. SOME OF
THIS ENERGY APPEARS TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER KS AND MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE DEW POINTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AS
IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE THAT STEEP, AND THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY ONLY BE AROUND 20 KTS. INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH
REGARDS TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GEM ARE THE SLOWEST
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS FASTER. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GET AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH LOCATIONS SEE THE ORGANIZED STORMS, AND WHEN NORTH
CENTRAL KS WILL DRY OUT. AS FOR NOW THE FASTEST SOLUTIONS WOULD
STILL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL RUN INTO SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS, WHICH COULD BE VERY HEAVY
AND EFFICIENT. MODELS AGREE THAT PWAT VALUES APPROACH AS HIGH AS 2.5
INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS REACH 12 KFT THEREFORE SUPPORTING THIS
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.75 INCHES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
BOTH THE NAM AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THEREFORE IT STALLS
OUT IN SOUTHERN KS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US AND OVER THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SEND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KS.
WITH SATURATED GROUNDS IN PLACE FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IS THIS
WERE TO OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF
THIS PRECIP POSING LESS OF A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ISSUES. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIP MISSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL MORE
OF THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EACH
CAUSING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOMEWHERE. AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK, BUT LATE WEEK
LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HAZE FROM AREA FIREWORKS WILL CAUSE MVFR VIS CONDS AT TOP/FOE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR VIS/CIG CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HRRR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF MHK EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRACH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...OMITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
809 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...RADARS AND STLT QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OVER THE GULF AND HRRR CONFIRMS
ISOLATED WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER ON TNITE. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
BUT DID RAISE POPS TO THE SILENT 10S INTO LCH AND LFT AND OUT OVER
THE GULF. OVERALL FCST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...LEAVING THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE...S WINDS 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z. PLACED VCSH FOR AEX/LFT/ARA WHERE ~20% POPS
EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON POPS BELOW CLIMO NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MAINLY DUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE/EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...RAIN CHANCES ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK. POPS WERE GENERALLY LOWERED A
TAD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CAME IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 00Z RUNS.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.
27
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 92 75 92 / 0 20 10 10
LCH 79 90 78 91 / 10 10 10 20
LFT 76 91 76 91 / 10 20 10 20
BPT 79 91 78 91 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
THE 2500 RANGE AND PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REACHES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL MS THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL RATES FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. 21
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/
LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.
MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 91 73 / 70 30 20 10
BTR 88 74 92 74 / 60 20 10 10
ASD 88 73 91 74 / 60 30 20 10
MSY 88 76 91 77 / 60 20 20 10
GPT 86 76 87 77 / 70 30 20 10
PQL 87 72 89 74 / 70 30 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REPRESENTED IN THE SOUNDING
THIS MORNING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 2400 J/KG AND PW IS ABOVE
AVERAGE AT 1.96 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN SW MISSISSIPPI.
THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM ABOUT 900 TO 750 MB... WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A MICROBURST THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED
TODAY AFTER A THIN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MIXES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. 500 MB TEMP IS -10 C AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
7 C/KM. THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING HAS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT...
WHICH WILL BE REALIZED OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOME STORMS TODAY
COULD BE SEVERE AND THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK.
TREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
STORMS FIRING TO THE SW OFF THE GULF AND OTHER CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST LA AND WEST CENTRAL MS.
KRAUTMANN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/
LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.
MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 91 73 / 60 30 20 10
BTR 88 74 92 74 / 40 10 10 10
ASD 88 73 91 74 / 50 20 20 10
MSY 88 76 91 77 / 50 20 20 10
GPT 86 76 87 77 / 50 30 20 10
PQL 87 72 89 74 / 50 30 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/
.LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.
&&
.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 91 73 / 60 30 20 10
BTR 88 74 92 74 / 40 10 10 10
ASD 88 73 91 74 / 50 20 20 10
MSY 88 76 91 77 / 50 20 20 10
GPT 86 76 87 77 / 50 30 20 10
PQL 87 72 89 74 / 50 30 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...WILL STAY WITH VFR AND VCSH BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN, NOCTURNAL GULF DEVELOPMENT,
AND AMPLE MOISTURE. BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY VCTS AND VFR EXCEPT AEX
WHERE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM A MOISTURE POOL WILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT -TSRA WITH VFR TO START WITH. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
RADAR IMAGERY DEFINE PERIODS OF ANY MVFR TEMPOS. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 90 75 93 / 60 40 10 10
LCH 76 90 77 92 / 20 20 10 10
LFT 75 90 76 92 / 50 30 10 10
BPT 77 91 78 92 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE: JUST ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HI TEMPS A DEG
OR 2 F OVR NE...CNTRL AND COASTAL DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION
BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM 1 PM SFC OBS. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE THEN
UPDATED INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TODAY. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1223 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE: LATEST ACTUAL RADAR REF INDICATING A LITTLE LESS
SHWR CVRG THEN SHOWN BY THE 13Z HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF RUN...
BUT WITH THE LATEST 15Z HRRR MODEL RUN STILL INDICATING MORE SHWR
AND ISOLD TO SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVR THE N AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS...WE WILL HOLD ON NUMEROUS SHWR
CVRG OVR THESE AREAS FOR NOW. BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS ACROSS THE N
OVR THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME LCTNS TO WARM
UP...WHILE MSLY UNINTERRUPTED HTG HAS OCCURRED UP TO MIDDAY OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS OF THE FA WITH PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES.
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN WERE AGAIN UPDATED BASED ON 11AM-
NOON OBS...WITH SOME LCTNS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING FCST HI TEMPS OVR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE MAY ISSUE
ONE MORE FCST UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN BEFORE THE FCST PCKG BEGINNING
WITH THE NGT PD LATER THIS AFTN.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
947 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE: POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY (NUMEROUS) ACROSS THE
N AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BASED ON FCST SHWR CVRG FROM FCST
HRLY SIM RADAR REF FROM THE HRRR MODEL. GIVEN GREATER CLD CVR
ACROSS THE N...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS HERE...BUT RAISED HI TEMPS
ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST A COUPLE OF MORE DEG F WHERE THE GREATEST
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVR OUR FA IS XPCTD...AND WHERE WE XPCT LMTD
SEA BREEZE ALG THE VERY IMMEDIATE COAST (MAYBE A FEW MILES
INLAND). FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THIS EVE BASED ON
THESE CHGS AND OBSVD 9 AM OBS...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF HR
TO HR FCST TEMPS WHERE SHWRS ARE MOST NUMEROUS. REGARDING MAX
CNVCTV POTENTIAL...WE DO NOT HAVE ANY MORE CERTAINTY THEN THE
PRIOR MID SHIFT...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CHC TSTMS W/O ANY ENHANCED
WORDING AND WILL CONT TO MONITOR.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
658 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER TO SHOW MORE SUN THIS MORNING
AND PULLED BACK THE POPS A BIT BASED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY. STILL LOOKING FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED TO
FIT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AS SOME AREAS TO THE W AND NW DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 40S SUCH AS K40B(CLAYTON LAKE). REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS OK.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE MBS AREA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME IFR WITHIN
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THERE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE COOLEST PART OF THE DAY. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO PREVENT IFR DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH/LATER IN THE
DAY BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOLID MVFR CEILING WITH INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE POST FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH WILL BRING A
RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING FROM MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
FOR DTW... FRONTAL TIMING AT DTW IN 15-18Z TIME FRAME WILL BE
SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING. GREATER COVERAGE WILL SUPPORT FASTER TIMING...GREATER
INTENSITY WILL SUPPORT SLOWER TIMING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 943 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
UPDATE...
MID EVENING CONVECTION IS SURVIVING THE TRIP ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT GENERATES ELEVATED INSTABILITY. UPDATED RAP OUTPUT
INDICATES 850 MB LI RUNNING NEAR -3C AND MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THIS PLUME OF
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD STEADILY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NIGHT. BOTH THE DTX AND APX 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVELY CAPPED
AND ARE A SNAPSHOT OF THE PREEXISTING LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT
THAT WILL CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
THE PROFILE FROM BELOW. THERE IS NOT MUCH COOLING ALOFT BUT WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL PROVIDE A MODEST
CONTRIBUTION TO THE PROFILE ALOFT. STILL EXPECT LIKELY/NUMEROUS
COVERAGE SPREADING NW TO SE OVER THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
VALID REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL BEING LIMITED BY LOW OVERALL
INSTABILITY. A WEAK WIND PROFILE AND 14 KFT FREEZING LEVEL IS
ALSO A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
HIGH STABILITY SHOWN ON KDTX RAOB THIS MORNING...INDICATIVE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
DRY AND QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CU FIELD OVER WESTERN
MICHIGAN HAS BEEN EXPANDING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE UNDER AN
INVERSION. RADAR IMAGERY OVER WISCONSIN SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AHEAD
OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRACKING ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE FIRING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LOOKS
THE STRONGEST PER NAM/GFS. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST. CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HI-RES AND GLOBAL
MODELS HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
SLIGHTLY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. NEWER
TIMING DOES LOOK GOOD...AS MODELS SEEM TO HAVE GOTTEN A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN...AND WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE...WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED. WARMER AIR ALOFT
SURGING IN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ACTIVITY (AND
INSTABILITY) ELEVATED AND EVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL TOO
IMPRESSIVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...RISING DEWPOINTS...AND AROUND 10 MPH OF WIND FROM THE
SOUTH. ONLY EXPECTING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF LOWER HEIGHTS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...PROMPTED BY A COMBINATION OF A
STRONGER INBOUND WAVE ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AND A WEAKER IMPULSE
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
EFFECTIVELY SHIFTING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW
THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTING JUST UPSTREAM /PW VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES/ INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
DIMINISHING STABILITY AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS AND WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE AS MODEST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE TRANSLATES THROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND ORGANIZATION
APPEARS LIMITED. MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS AND FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
DURING THIS TIME...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN LARGELY POSITIONED SOUTH OF
THE GREATER MID LEVEL ASCENT AND CORRESPONDING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELD. IN ADDITION...RESIDUAL WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
QUESTIONABLE PROSPECTS FOR GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
GIVEN AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING /CENTERED 14Z-18Z/ WILL LEAVE PALTRY
LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. 12Z NAM AGAIN RUNNING HIGH
ON PROJECTED DEWPOINTS /3-5 DEGREES TOO MOIST/...YIELDING AN
OVERZEALOUS EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE RESPONSE. A MORE MODIFIED
PARCEL WITH A T/TD OF 80/70 DOES ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES WITHIN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TOWARD SUPPORTING
A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS...WITH A CORRESPONDING WINDOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS. MAIN ISSUE GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
PROGRESSIVE POST-FRONTAL DRYING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY RELATIVE TO TUESDAY.
MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TAKING HOLD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVOLUTION WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A
PERIODICALLY ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THIS PROCESS WILL INITIATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
A LEAD WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GROWING UPPER HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. RESPECTABLE SURFACE WAVE APPEARS TO EMERGE WITH
THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN A COMPACT BUT STRONG CORRIDOR OF FORCING
AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING
REMAINS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED YET...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE EVENTUAL
PRECIPITATION SWATH. THIS CONTINUES TO WARRANT A BROADER AND MORE
CONSERVATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS STAGE.
THE EXTENSIVE HIGHER CLOUD AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CAP
HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY...REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION
TIMING/COVERAGE.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WILL EXPAND NORTH/WESTWARD. THIS LOOKS TO RAISE
HEIGHTS LOCALLY TO SOME DEGREE LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A CLEAN PROCESS THOUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A FEW SHORTWAVES IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. POST-FRONTAL
10 TO 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF MODEST EASTERLY
FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....MR/DT
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
943 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
MID EVENING CONVECTION IS SURVIVING THE TRIP ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT GENERATES ELEVATED INSTABILITY. UPDATED RAP OUTPUT
INDICATES 850 MB LI RUNNING NEAR -3C AND MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THIS PLUME OF
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD STEADILY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NIGHT. BOTH THE DTX AND APX 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVELY CAPPED
AND ARE A SNAPSHOT OF THE PREEXISTING LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT
THAT WILL CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
THE PROFILE FROM BELOW. THERE IS NOT MUCH COOLING ALOFT BUT WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL PROVIDE A MODEST
CONTRIBUTION TO THE PROFILE ALOFT. STILL EXPECT LIKELY/NUMEROUS
COVERAGE SPREADING NW TO SE OVER THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
VALID REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL BEING LIMITED BY LOW OVERALL
INSTABILITY. A WEAK WIND PROFILE AND 14 KFT FREEZING LEVEL IS
ALSO A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 657 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AT ISSUANCE TIME
WILL FOLLOW GREATER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER DURING
THE EVENING. THAT WILL LEAVE JUST THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SE MICHIGAN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL ALSO INCREASE. SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN THE MBS AREA FIRST AND
THEN SPREAD NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR SOLID MVFR CEILING WITH THE
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD SUNRISE AT MBS AND TOWARD NOON AT DTW. PRIOR REASONING
REMAINS VALID ON LIMITATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.
FOR DTW... FRONTAL TIMING AT DTW IN 15-18Z TIME FRAME WILL BE
SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
SUPPORT FASTER TIMING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
HIGH STABILITY SHOWN ON KDTX RAOB THIS MORNING...INDICATIVE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
DRY AND QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CU FIELD OVER WESTERN
MICHIGAN HAS BEEN EXPANDING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE UNDER AN
INVERSION. RADAR IMAGERY OVER WISCONSIN SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AHEAD
OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRACKING ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE FIRING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LOOKS
THE STRONGEST PER NAM/GFS. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST. CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HI-RES AND GLOBAL
MODELS HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
SLIGHTLY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. NEWER
TIMING DOES LOOK GOOD...AS MODELS SEEM TO HAVE GOTTEN A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE OVER
WISCONSIN...AND WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE...WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED. WARMER AIR ALOFT
SURGING IN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ACTIVITY (AND
INSTABILITY) ELEVATED AND EVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL TOO
IMPRESSIVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...RISING DEWPOINTS...AND AROUND 10 MPH OF WIND FROM THE
SOUTH. ONLY EXPECTING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF LOWER HEIGHTS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...PROMPTED BY A COMBINATION OF A
STRONGER INBOUND WAVE ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA AND A WEAKER IMPULSE
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
EFFECTIVELY SHIFTING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW
THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTING JUST UPSTREAM /PW VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES/ INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
DIMINISHING STABILITY AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS AND WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE AS MODEST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE TRANSLATES THROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND ORGANIZATION
APPEARS LIMITED. MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS AND FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
DURING THIS TIME...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN LARGELY POSITIONED SOUTH OF
THE GREATER MID LEVEL ASCENT AND CORRESPONDING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELD. IN ADDITION...RESIDUAL WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
QUESTIONABLE PROSPECTS FOR GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
GIVEN AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING /CENTERED 14Z-18Z/ WILL LEAVE PALTRY
LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. 12Z NAM AGAIN RUNNING HIGH
ON PROJECTED DEWPOINTS /3-5 DEGREES TOO MOIST/...YIELDING AN
OVERZEALOUS EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE RESPONSE. A MORE MODIFIED
PARCEL WITH A T/TD OF 80/70 DOES ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES WITHIN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TOWARD SUPPORTING
A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS...WITH A CORRESPONDING WINDOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS. MAIN ISSUE GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
PROGRESSIVE POST-FRONTAL DRYING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY RELATIVE TO TUESDAY.
MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TAKING HOLD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVOLUTION WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A
PERIODICALLY ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THIS PROCESS WILL INITIATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
A LEAD WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE GROWING UPPER HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. RESPECTABLE SURFACE WAVE APPEARS TO EMERGE WITH
THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN A COMPACT BUT STRONG CORRIDOR OF FORCING
AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING
REMAINS SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED YET...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE EVENTUAL
PRECIPITATION SWATH. THIS CONTINUES TO WARRANT A BROADER AND MORE
CONSERVATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS STAGE.
THE EXTENSIVE HIGHER CLOUD AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CAP
HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY...REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION
TIMING/COVERAGE.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WILL EXPAND NORTH/WESTWARD. THIS LOOKS TO RAISE
HEIGHTS LOCALLY TO SOME DEGREE LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A CLEAN PROCESS THOUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A FEW SHORTWAVES IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. POST-FRONTAL
10 TO 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF MODEST EASTERLY
FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....MR/DT
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.
FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
SMOKE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW VISIBILITIES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES AND CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS. AS MIXING
STOPS BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID EVENING AND
WILL GO VFR AT ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.
TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.
MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.
THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.
THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AT
KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL
APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.
SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.
SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.
THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.
LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
REGION. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AFTER 04Z AND THEN INTO
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z OR SO. SEVERE THREAT GREATEST OVER NORTHWEST
AREA...WITH MAINLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE WEST INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.
KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH METRO. TIMING OF WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ...06Z-10Z. LINGERING
THUNDER AND SHRA INTO MIDMORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN MN
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VCSH USED AT KRWF AND
KAXN. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO WESTERN WI BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHOW STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD IMPACT
KAXN...KSTC AND KRWF IN THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS INSERTED INTO
THE TEMPO GROUPS AS THE STORMS BOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN.
EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THIS TIME...MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE
LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
METRO. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS/VSBYS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL BE MVFR
OR LOWER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON AFTN...VFR WITH SHRA ENDING. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS EASTERN SD.
THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WITH THE 850-
300MB THICKNESS PATTERN ALMOST N-S ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING IN THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AS MIXING ENSUES...VARIOUS CAMS SUGGEST
SOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OR END BY LATE
MORNING...TIED TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...SOME CHANCES POPS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
THIS MORNING.
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING
ACTIVITY MAY END UP FESTERING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN REINTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION GOES AS FAR AS DEVELOPING THINGS ALL THE
WAY BACK TO REDWOOD FALLS. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BUILDING CAPE. POSSIBLY OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE
A BUILDING CAP. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
CONTAINS SEVERAL PERTURBATION THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AIDING IN THE FORCING. SO...A CHANGE MADE OVERNIGHT
WAS TO ADD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE METRO ON NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY...WHICH COULD DERAIL ALL OF THE
ABOVE...ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MT. EARLIER RUNS IN THE NIGHT
OF THE HRRR SHOWED A STRONG BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST RUN HAS
WEAKENED THIS TREND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT SHOULD MEANDER FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...FROM ABERDEEN SD THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS. CAMS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A LITTLE
LATER SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN. THESE STORMS MAY RACE EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING
WINDS WERE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING PRETTY HIGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.25 INCHES FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
IN THIS SAME AREA AND HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. OUR QPF GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF OVER 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH
OVERNIGHT FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...BECAUSE OF THE VARYING CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THE FIRE SMOKE HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED ALOFT. WEST CENTRAL MN IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING/DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM DEAL WITH TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY...THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THU
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
12Z MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT BISECTING MN FROM ABOUT SIOUX
FALLS TO DULUTH...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND A 1002 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MOVING INTO WRN WI...LIKELY IN A
DECAYING PHASE. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC LOW IS...WE
COULD HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF STRATIFORM PRECIP TRAILING THE FRONT IN
WRN MN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION WEST OF THE LOW. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WE ARE SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP MOVES OUT...WITH THE ECMWF HANGING PRECIP BACK A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS. FAVORED POPS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO LADYSMITH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST FRONTAL
PRECIP EITHER AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1020MB HIGH
WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RAW MODEL BLEND
HAS...WHICH IS UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...TUESDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO SKIP WORK AND DO
SOMETHING OUTSIDE AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLEMISH FOR TUESDAY IS THE THREAT FOR SMOKE TO
ACCOMPANY THE CANADIAN HIGH ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI...THOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SAID POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYTHING MIDWEEK.
THE THU NIGHT/FRI PRECIP CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE GFS/CANADIAN...
WHICH SHOW POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
WORKING TOWARD WI. THE ECMWF HAS THIS WAVE AS WELL...BUT DRIVES IT
SOUTH ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BRING WARMER...MORE HUMID...AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE STARTS
BUILDING TO OUR SW. AS IT DOES SO...ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WORKING BACK UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPS AROUND 70 FOR NEXT WEEKEND. QUESTION FOR PRECIP WILL BECOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF WAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEALTHY BOUTS OF
PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD IS REMAINING
HAZE/SMOKE OVER OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR VISIBILITY SHOULD
PERSIST AT EAU AND RNH OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HAZE...AND BETWEEN
09Z-13Z THIS COULD BECOME IFR AS THE CONDENSATION NUCLEI FROM THE
SMOKE COULD HELP PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIR. THE SMOKE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW STORMS COULD
PUSH INTO WESTERN MN IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND AXN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING...WITH A
LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN
00-06Z. RWF AND STC COULD POTENTIALLY BE IMPACTED BEFORE 06Z AS
WELL WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING LOOK LIKE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
KMSP...SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE AT THE
TERMINAL...AND ALTHOUGH THE THICKEST HAZE WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST...MVFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MSP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20 KTS AFTER NOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY ADJUST POPS AND WX THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE REGION IS FOCUSED IN
THE HEART OF A CONVECTIVE LULL IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER
TODAY WITH MAIN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING IN AN ARC FROM
CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST TO LAKE PONCHATRAIN...AND THEN NORTHWEST TO THE
ARKLATEX. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS NEXT INCOMING LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH OVERHEAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL SPARK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SOMEWHERE ALONG AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AT WHICH POINT POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES A GREAT DEAL. POPS IN THIS
TIME FRAME FOCUSED ON THIS MENTIONED AXIS AND REDUCED ELSEWHERE. OF
COURSE SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY BUT UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING A BIT
MUCH TO WARRANT TRYING TO PINPOINT JUST YET IN THE HWO. MAY DO THAT
WITH THE OFFICIAL EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. UPDATES OUT THE DOOR. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD./7/
AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 84 72 89 / 37 59 60 23
MERIDIAN 70 83 69 89 / 29 58 64 37
VICKSBURG 70 85 73 91 / 54 59 52 16
HATTIESBURG 71 84 73 91 / 50 66 34 18
NATCHEZ 71 87 73 90 / 59 61 22 15
GREENVILLE 71 86 72 90 / 20 46 60 23
GREENWOOD 68 85 71 89 / 18 47 53 30
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/7/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE EVENING LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DISSIPATING DIURNAL CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GREATER MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS BY THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE RAP THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS, THEN
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK PETURBATION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 3000-7000 FT LAYER AND ATTENDANT THERMAL AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE 07-15Z TIME
FRAME. I HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS IN MIND. OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT AND A
RATHER WARM DAY IS ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY. THE MODELS NOW ALL HAVE
A BIT SLOWER PROGRESS WITH THE COLD FRONT, NOT ENTERING FAR
NORTHWEST MO UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THIS SLOWER SPEED
AND LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST WAA REGIME, I EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 90. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE BROAD WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY
FOCUS WITH THE MODELS HAVING SOME GROWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME
FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND WHERE THE FRONT MAY LIE. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST AGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUSH EARLY ON THEN WAVERS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DON`T MOVE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN WAVER IT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WAVES MOVE ALONG IT, FINALLY
PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE REGION SPANNING
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND A BROAD REGION OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ONCE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE REGION A BIT BETTER.
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FORM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WEAK SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO COU. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR FORECAST WITH SOME MORINING FOG AND
HAZE.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CONTINUED MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ONCE AGAIN AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGHT TO STOP IN. NAM AND GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD, AND A VICINITY WOULD BE ALL THIS IS NEEDED, WILL
LEAVE DRY.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
357 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CAN FORM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITH THE COLD FRONT/SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY.
AT 12Z...H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A BROAD TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
H7 MOISTURE WAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE H7 TROF WITH 2 TO 4 DEG H7
DEWPOINTS. 12Z H85 DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN TO 12 TO 14 DEG C ACROSS
THE STATE. MORNING CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DISSIPATED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOW HIGHEST MLCAPE TORWARD FAIRBURY AND
LINCOLN AND THE WEAKEST CAP IS IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BUILDING IN TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE SHORT-TERM HIRES MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THIS
EVENING. THE RAP AND SPC HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH CAPE/WEAK CAP AREA. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IF STORMS BREAK
THE CAP...THE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
TONIGHT...THERE IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND OMEGA WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROF. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES WITH
THESE FEATURES...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA REMAINING WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 03Z...THEN SPREAD INTO
THE REST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE COLD FRONT. THROUGH
12Z...A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG IS FORECAST. DO MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE ZONE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
MORNING...ANOTHER PUSH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN THOUGH BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT TO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND RE-GENERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN WITH THE HIGH PWATS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NAM20 EVEN HAS A RARE 3
INCH BULLSEYE FOR PWAT NEAR FNB AT 00Z MONDAY EVENING. TRAINING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AREA POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STORM MOTIONS DO DROP DOWN
TO AROUND 15KTS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH A
RIDGE AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ISOLD TSRA CONTINUED TO DECREASE BY AROUND MID DAY. CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL TSRA MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CHANCES AT KLNK AND
KOMA ARE BEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY AT KOFK AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KOFK BEFORE 12Z. WIND SHIFT AT KOMA AND KLNK WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER 14Z AND DID NOT INCLUDE THAT FOR NOW SINCE TAFS
WERE ALREADY FAIRLY LONG.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AIDE IN KEEPING
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY MID MORNING. LOWERED CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY IF NOT OVER THE
TAF SITE BY MID MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.
SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHC A STORM MAY REACH THE TERMINALS HOWEVER CHCS ARE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
329 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY COOL
OFF THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE/CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW
STRONG CELLS IN EACH LOCATION. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SHEAR
SLIGHTLY...SO THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. PWATS ARE STILL 0.8 TO AROUND 1.0 INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH...SO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A THREAT. DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...WHICH SHOULD END CONVECTION
QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
ON MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
THIS TIME...CENTRAL NEVADA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
NAM/GFS/SHREF AGREE NICELY ON LOCATION OF PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FAVORABLE DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING
PULSE/MULTICELLUAR STORMS. PWATS WILL LOWER TO 0.75 INCHES...SO
DRIER STORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
STORMS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT EVENT SEEMS IN THE
OFFERING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE LOSING CONGRUENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST MOVING INLAND AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPS THE LOW STATIONARY FOR A LITTLE LONGER...THROWING
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO ITS ECCENTRIC ROTATION.
THE ENSEMBLE SUGGESTION IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BRUSH NEVADA AS AN
OPEN WAVE LATER THIS WEEK. EITHER WAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEVADA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. ALL TAF SITES COULD BE
AFFECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH DRIER
STORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET.
PWATS DROP ON TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE HYBRID STORMS. THE STORMY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY INCREASING IN
NW NEVADA LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES IN.
MODEST/GOOD RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
94/92/92/94
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&
.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO KEEP GOING IN AND AROUND DEATH VALLEY
NATIONAL PARK THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK LOOKING ON RADAR, IT IS HARD TO STILL DISCOUNT A THUNDERSTORM
OUT THERE IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN TRENDS POPS WERE INCREASED
AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDED IN THIS AREA FOR THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NYE COUNTY WHERE
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT LATER ON BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST/WEST STEERING
FLOW. THE HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD WANE BY 08Z
SUNDAY OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHIFT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT BUT IT MAY
NOT BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z-07Z SUNDAY AS SPEEDS REMAIN WEAK AND
SUPPORT ALOFT IS WEAK AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT TO ALLOW ANY HIGHER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. LOCAL AREAS
OF FU ALOFT FROM FIREWORK SMOKE IS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA SHOULD END BY 08Z OR SO SUNDAY ACROSS INYO AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO, ESMERALDA, LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND IN THE SPRING MTS AND SHEEP RANGE. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
357 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEP
RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WHILE A BIT LESS LIKELY THAN WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA. THEN ON MONDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS PROGGED TO HEAD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE AND PUSH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH AND WEST...MAKING IT AT LEAST
CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE BY WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER RISK SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING...THEN TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL...A NICE CURVE BALL THROWN AT US BY MA NATURE RENDERED
ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO NEARLY THIRD OF THE STATE TOTALLY
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...DESPITE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF AZ. DECIDED TO TRIM THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK OUT OF THE
WATCH...WHILE KEEPING IT GOING ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM SE AZ...IT APPEARS IN
PART THAT THE 2 MCV/S THAT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND THE STORM STEERING FLOW TO
W AND NW OF ABQ HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY IMPLY WEAK
RIDGING THAT HAS DEVELOPED THERE. HRRR MODEL STILL DEVELOPS PRETTY
GOOD AMT OF CONVECTION TO W OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z
AND MOVES IT INTO THE JEMEZ WHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS DECENT
CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVE GENERALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
SO SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS NOTED.
MON TO TUE PERIOD STILL LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON AND FROM HIGHLANDS
JUST EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST TO THE DIVIDE DUE LARGELY
TO ADDED MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON NIGHT...RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. KEPT THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN WX GRIDS THROUGH
MON...THOUGH EXPANDED EAST SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT IN THE EARLIER
UPDATE. WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...POPS REDUCED A BIT. BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CHANCES ALONG WITH
WHAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPING TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL INDICATED
FOR WED...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK. FOR
LATE WEEK INTO SAT THE GFS STILL BULLISH FOR A DECENT BUT SOMEWHAT
NARROWER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND W NM...MAINTAINING DECENT TO VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. ECMWF MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL
EXPANDS UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE SOONER THAN THE GFS.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A POSSIBLE
DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE AND UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS MAY THEN
ARRIVE FOR LATE WEEK.
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WILL
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINFALL BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND REFOCUS MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE DIVIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/SANDIAS AND MANZANO MTS. GUSTY CANYON WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS WELL HOWEVER PEAK SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE REGULATED BY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES AND GENERALLY GOOD OR
BETTER VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND
BEGIN A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND. THE MAIN AXIS OF STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK AND FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN NM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND BACK INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S WHILE MAX TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVITY FIRING UP LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WILL TURN TO NUMEROUS VIGOROUS TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. VSBYS FROM A
DIRECT HIT AT ANY TERMINAL COULD FALL TO BTWN 2 AND 3SM. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE A DRIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS. FAVORED
AREAS TODAY WILL BE FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ/KAEG AND KLVS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER PERSISTING ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KGUP TO KABQ/KSAF AND KLVS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE
A WIND SHIFT MOVING SW OVER EASTERN NM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 62 92 62 89 / 20 20 20 20
DULCE........................... 54 86 53 79 / 30 30 50 50
CUBA............................ 55 84 53 78 / 60 50 70 40
GALLUP.......................... 56 85 54 86 / 30 30 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 54 83 52 83 / 50 40 60 30
GRANTS.......................... 57 84 54 85 / 40 40 50 30
QUEMADO......................... 58 84 57 83 / 40 30 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 57 87 55 89 / 40 30 20 20
CHAMA........................... 51 78 51 74 / 30 60 70 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 82 57 75 / 70 70 70 60
PECOS........................... 57 80 55 73 / 40 70 70 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 77 52 71 / 50 70 60 70
RED RIVER....................... 47 67 47 63 / 50 70 70 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 67 51 63 / 40 70 70 70
TAOS............................ 54 80 52 75 / 30 40 50 40
MORA............................ 54 75 51 69 / 50 70 70 70
ESPANOLA........................ 59 87 56 79 / 50 30 60 40
SANTA FE........................ 59 82 58 76 / 50 50 70 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 84 58 80 / 40 30 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 86 64 83 / 60 30 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 88 65 85 / 60 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 90 63 87 / 50 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 89 65 86 / 50 30 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 90 63 86 / 50 30 40 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 88 64 86 / 50 30 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 66 91 65 89 / 40 20 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 83 56 78 / 70 40 70 60
TIJERAS......................... 59 85 55 79 / 70 40 70 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 84 53 79 / 50 30 60 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 80 54 74 / 30 40 70 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 83 57 79 / 50 30 70 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 87 62 85 / 40 20 60 30
RUIDOSO......................... 58 81 55 75 / 50 50 70 40
CAPULIN......................... 60 75 53 73 / 40 70 60 20
RATON........................... 59 78 54 74 / 30 70 60 30
SPRINGER........................ 60 80 55 75 / 30 70 60 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 77 52 71 / 30 70 60 40
CLAYTON......................... 65 80 57 77 / 20 60 50 20
ROY............................. 62 78 57 75 / 30 70 60 20
CONCHAS......................... 66 85 62 79 / 20 70 60 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 88 61 79 / 30 50 60 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 90 62 82 / 20 50 60 20
CLOVIS.......................... 67 88 62 79 / 10 40 60 30
PORTALES........................ 68 90 64 80 / 10 30 70 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 93 64 81 / 20 30 60 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 94 68 86 / 20 30 50 30
PICACHO......................... 63 88 63 81 / 30 50 50 30
ELK............................. 61 84 62 77 / 50 50 50 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505>509-518>522-524>526.
&&
$$
43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
830 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO
CREATE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BUILD LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH CONTINUED TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW COLLISIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED ACROSS THE ILM CWA. VIA LATEST KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS...REMAINING CONVECTION IS ALSO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING.
AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE POPS BY
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HRS. PIEDMONT SFC TROF MAY CONTRIBUTE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTION INITIATION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF THE ILM CWA.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE UP OVER THE ADJACENT
ATL WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS...AND MAY CLIP THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE ILM CWA AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT AND/OR MOVE TO
THE N OR NE. WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN AOK WITH NO TWEAKING
NEEDED THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS....................................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... DEEP CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR FAILED TO
DEVELOP TODAY. SHALLOWER EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP
BRIEFLY ALONG THE NC SEABREEZE AND AT THIS TIME OVER SC SEA
BREEZE. PIEDMONT TROUGH ALSO SEEING SIMILARLY SCANT ACTIVITY.
GIVEN THAT THE NORMAL DIURNAL PEAK IS UPON US AND IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY REAL FORCING LATER ON THIS IS PROBABLY IT. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN INSISTING THAT THE SEABREEZE CONTINUES TO BE PRODUCTIVE BUT
IS NOW FALLING A BIT BEHIND THE 8BALL IN BEING OVERDONE W ITS
INITIALIZATION. EVEN SO...IT IS JULY IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND
WE NEED A STRONGER CAP THAN THE PALTRY ONE IN THE CHS REFERENCED
THIS MORNING TO BRING A COMPLETELY DRY DAY SO THE SMALL POPS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALBEIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY THOUGH WE COULD SEE A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE GULF STREAM CONVECTION AFFECTED THE
VERY IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE
HIGHER THICKNESSES...BUT WILL HELP TO SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD...LIKELY
REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT AND DRIVE AFTN CONVECTION ALONG THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BOUNDARIES. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT MORE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE.
CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY EACH DAY...BUT CONTINUED SW WINDS
WILL KEEP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 75 EACH
NIGHT...FALLING FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE CLOSE OUT
ON THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ILLUSTRATE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EXTENDING BACK AS FAR WEST AS TEXAS. WITH INCREASING
HEIGHTS...FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO
MOVE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DROP SOUTH CLOSE TO
THE AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT WITH INCREASED POPS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH INTO MONDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES AS IN ADDITION TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TROPICAL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THE ONLY IMPEDIMENTS TO AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE A LITTLE
MVFR FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT LIMITED COVERAGE DOESN`T WARRANT INCLUSION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LIKELY FIRE UP AGAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE N TO NE AT 10 KT OR LESS AND WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES...AND POSSIBLY MOVE ONSHORE AT
TIMES. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A SW WIND DIRECTION. SYNOPTIC
SFC PG TO YIELD 10-15 KT...EXCEPT THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
EVENING WILL RUN SSW 15 TO 20 KT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MESOSCALE
INDUCED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT THRUOUT...EXCEPT A SOLID 3 TO 4 FT FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET DUE TO THE SW FETCH. LATEST WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN
MODELS AND THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS...ALL INDICATE THAT A 1.5 TO
2.0 FOOT ESE-SE GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IDENTIFIABLE DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HRS.
THIS SWELL MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 FOOT
DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS. FOR NOW...THE SSW-SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AND THE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL ARE NEARLY EVEN POWER-WISE WHEN
LOOKING AT THE SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS.
PREVIOUS.....................................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT BY
ABOUT 5 KTS AS A VERY WEAK LLJ DEVELOPS. EXPECTING NO WORSE THAN
ABOUT THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE THUS PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORIES OR
HEADLINES. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE
BUMP IN SPEED COULD CHANGE A FEW ZONES` FORECAST FROM 3 TO 4 FT TO
JUST A MAINLY 4 FT FCST AS THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT
GRADIENT DIMINISHES EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND SW WINDS TO PERSIST IN
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION THIS PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
10-15 KTS...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN/EVE DUE TO THE SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS OF 3-4
FT ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SW WIND WAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE
SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AS THE WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL SEE CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15
KTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE OF WAVE HEIGHTS...AS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH A BLEND OF WIND WAVES AND A
LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS COMING INTO PLAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...SHK
M
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO
CREATE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BUILD LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH CONTINUED TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... DEEP CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR FAILED TO
DEVELOP TODAY. SHALLOWER EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP
BRIEFLY ALONG THE NC SEABREEZE AND AT THIS TIME OVER SC SEA
BREEZE. PIEDMONT TROUGH ALSO SEEING SIMILARLY SCANT ACTIVITY.
GIVEN THAT THE NORMAL DIURNAL PEAK IS UPON US AND IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY REAL FORCING LATER ON THIS IS PROBABLY IT. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN INSISTING THAT THE SEABREEZE CONTINUES TO BE PRODUCTIVE BUT
IS NOW FALLING A BIT BEHIND THE 8BALL IN BEING OVERDONE W ITS
INITIALIZATION. EVEN SO...IT IS JULY IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND
WE NEED A STRONGER CAP THAN THE PALTRY ONE IN THE CHS REFERENCED
THIS MORNING TO BRING A COMPLETELY DRY DAY SO THE SMALL POPS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALBEIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY THOUGH WE COULD SEE A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE GULF STREAM CONVECTION AFFECTED THE
VERY IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE
HIGHER THICKNESSES...BUT WILL HELP TO SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD...LIKELY
REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT AND DRIVE AFTN CONVECTION ALONG THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BOUNDARIES. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT MORE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE.
CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY EACH DAY...BUT CONTINUED SW WINDS
WILL KEEP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 75 EACH
NIGHT...FALLING FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE CLOSE OUT
ON THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ILLUSTRATE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EXTENDING BACK AS FAR WEST AS TEXAS. WITH INCREASING
HEIGHTS...FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO
MOVE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DROP SOUTH CLOSE TO
THE AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT WITH INCREASED POPS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH INTO MONDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES AS IN ADDITION TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TROPICAL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THE ONLY IMPEDIMENTS TO AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE A LITTLE
MVFR FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT LIMITED COVERAGE DOESN`T WARRANT INCLUSION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT BY
ABOUT 5 KTS AS A VERY WEAK LLJ DEVELOPS. EXPECTING NO WORSE THAN
ABOUT THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE THUS PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORIES OR
HEADLINES. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE
BUMP IN SPEED COULD CHANGE A FEW ZONES` FORECAST FROM 3 TO 4 FT TO
JUST A MAINLY 4 FT FCST AS THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT
GRADIENT DIMINISHES EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND SW WINDS TO PERSIST IN
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION THIS PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
10-15 KTS...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN/EVE DUE TO THE SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS OF 3-4
FT ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SW WIND WAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE
SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AS THE WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL SEE CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15
KTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE OF WAVE HEIGHTS...AS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH A BLEND OF WIND WAVES AND A
LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS COMING INTO PLAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA
AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NE TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY OR
SOUTHERN OH BY 12Z MON...SLOWED BY UPSTREAM SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE PLAINS STATES INTO-AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING AN MCV OVER THE SC UPSTATE AT
08Z...WILL BE DIRECTED AROUND THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
NC. THESE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING THE SC MCV THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z...WILL
BE MIGRATING THROUGH A FIELD OF OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
AT 08Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --A DEEP ONE THAT EXTENDED THROUGH
THE 925-850 MB LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP DATA-- EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
SW AND SOUTHERN VA...FROM A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
NASHVILLE TN. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE THE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR
THE VA/NC STATE LINE...THOUGH LIKELY MODULATED SOUTHWARD BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT FORM ALONG...AND/OR MOVE
TOWARD...IT. A LEE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW...THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO EASTERN GA.
HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ARCS/BANDS OF MULTI-
CELL CONVECTION WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV...AND WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH A
DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NEARS/CONCENTRATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS ARE APT TO FIRE IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROBABLE LEAD
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
WEAK INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE TOO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE APT TO LINGER TONIGHT FOR THE SAME
REASONING..THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.
HIGHS IN THE 80S - WARMEST NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.
&&
..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.
&&
..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...
A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.
&&
..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...HUMID SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS, OTHERWISE MOST OTHER CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP-13 MODELS LOOK A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z NAM-12
WAS FORECASTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AND BASED ON
TRENDS IN THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST THOUGH AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS PHENOMENA WILL FORECAST SCATTERED 900 CLOUDS INLAND WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20%
COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
VICINITY OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY AROUND 1
AM. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY CENTRAL LEG AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6 FT
THERE. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH
WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS
RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS STILL DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING OUT AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN PICKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FIRST LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IMPACTING OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
80S WITH 60S DEW POINTS...BRINGING SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR OF
2500 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS
IMPROVED TO 40-45KTS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA. THE HRRR HAS STORMS NOT REDEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR 23Z...BY
WHICH POINT THE FRONT IS NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. THINK THIS IS A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE CONTINUES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MOSTLY
SHOWERS AS SHOWALTERS BECOME POSITIVE IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINK DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ONLY
A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT THINK THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT THERE
COULD BE A RETURN TO SMOKE IN THE AIR AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNDER WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE 70S. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. CURRENTLY THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC TROUGH LOOK QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
STILL FOR WEDNESDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER CONVECTION ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE DRY
AND WARMER AS OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHERWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...ALG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR
AFT MID AFTERNOON FROM DVL INTO GFK...AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GFK INTO VWU. AREAS SOPUTH OF HWY 200 WILL SEE
SCATTERED MVFR CONDS IN TUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY EVENING FROM FAR-BWP LINE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
POST FRONTAL DRYING AND RETURN TO VFR CONDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
138 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO PULL THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE WATCH OUT. THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SMALL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THINK THAT CELLS GOING
UP IN THAT AREA WILL BE SUB SEVERE AND SHORT LIVED. KEPT CASS
COUNTY AND MN COUNTIES STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POLK COUNTY MADE
IT COMPLICATED AS CROOKSTON IS WELL IN THE COOL AIR AND FOSSTON IS
STILL OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. KEPT THE WEIRD SHAPED COUNTIES
IN JUST FOR EASE AND WILL PULL THEM OUT IN THE NEXT UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE STARTED TO LOSE THEIR
PUNCH AS THEY HAVE MOVED EAST. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
GFK AND VALLEY CITY...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN DESTABILIZING NICELY. THE HRRR HAS SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND 19-21Z AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS REDEVELOPING
MOSTLY OVER OUR SOUTH AND EAST NEAR THE BOUNDARY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN
CWA ARE STARTING TO PUT OUT SOME WIND...AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION HAS FIRED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST LIFT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. INCLUDED A SEVERE
MENTION EVEN THIS MORNING GIVEN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PULSED
UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COULD IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...ALG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR
AFT MID AFTERNOON FROM DVL INTO GFK...AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GFK INTO VWU. AREAS SOPUTH OF HWY 200 WILL SEE
SCATTERED MVFR CONDS IN TUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY EVENING FROM FAR-BWP LINE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
POST FRONTAL DRYING AND RETURN TO VFR CONDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE STARTED TO LOSE THEIR
PUNCH AS THEY HAVE MOVED EAST. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
GFK AND VALLEY CITY...AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN DESTABILIZING NICELY. THE HRRR HAS SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND 19-21Z AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS REDEVELOPING
MOSTLY OVER OUR SOUTH AND EAST NEAR THE BOUNDARY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN
CWA ARE STARTING TO PUT OUT SOME WIND...AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION HAS FIRED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST LIFT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. INCLUDED A SEVERE
MENTION EVEN THIS MORNING GIVEN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PULSED
UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COULD IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN...ALG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR
AFT MID AFTERNOON FROM DVL INTO GFK...AND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GFK INTO VWU. AREAS SOPUTH OF HWY 200 WILL SEE
SCATTERED MVFR CONDS IN TUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY EVENING FROM FAR-BWP LINE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
POST FRONTAL DRYING AND RETURN TO VFR CONDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN
CWA ARE STARTING TO PUT OUT SOME WIND...AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION HAS FIRED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST LIFT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. INCLUDED A SEVERE
MENTION EVEN THIS MORNING GIVEN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PULSED
UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COULD IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP
CIGS VFR. THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION HAS FIRED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST LIFT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY TAKES OVER. INCLUDED A SEVERE
MENTION EVEN THIS MORNING GIVEN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PULSED
UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COULD IMPACT DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP
CIGS VFR. THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
UNFORTUNATELY STILL UNSURE HOW EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT
IS GOING TO UNFOLD. AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND IS ABOUT TO
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DELAYED...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH (LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO JAMESTOWN LINE). WILL NEED TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE CONSIDERING
MOST INCOMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP
CIGS VFR. THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AND THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY (08Z) EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DVL TO BDE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AROUND 18Z...WITH 80F TO
90F TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG). THE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA TODAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD. 00Z
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT NEAR 30 KNTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. JUDGING FROM THE PAST OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...SEVERE STORMS SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. HAIL UP TO 2-2.5
INCHES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND TRAINING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WHICH IS A CONCERN CONSIDERING THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGHER PRECIP RATES (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES).
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION...AND HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM MIGHT OCCUR (CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE REGION).
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL UNFOLD AND
HOW THIS AFFECTS STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES MCV FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOPEFULLY WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS WITH THE 7AM UPDATE.
MONDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SHOWERS. IT WILL BE
COOL AND WINDY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
AT START OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AS OVERALL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A BIT OUT OF PHASE TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED
1045 AM UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE
FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH
LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE
TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE
TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N
FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE
ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S
WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS
FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.
STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION. WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW. DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT. WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.
STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION. WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW. DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT. WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WATCH
FARTHER NORTH IN HWO.
WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.
STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION. WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW. DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT. WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
233 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH
IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DROPPING THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTH OR NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR NORTH OF A MADRAS-SPRAY-LA GRANDE
LINE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVE WILD FIRES IN
PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECT SOME PATCHY SMOKE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE DAY ON MONDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHERN GRANT
COUNTY. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN
250-500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND -2 PRESENTLY. THE LATEST
19Z HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL DESCHUTES COUNTY BETWEEN NOW AND
00Z THIS EVENING...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH
AND OUT OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 04 TO 07Z THIS EVENING. THIS FITS WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND RATHER
QUIET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO MID-
50S MOUNTAINS. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER CENTRAL OREGON AS THE BAND OF CLOUDS LINGERS
OVER THIS AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
OREGON AND ESPECIALLY DESCHUTES COUNTY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST
OVER DESCHUTES COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER DESCHUTES COUNTY
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS REASON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 611 FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION). HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST...SWITCHING
THE FLOW TO NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 98-103 DEGREES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS...THIS IS ABOUT 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 77
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY
FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS AS
THE LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MUCH
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ML
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON BORDER THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ML
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MIGRATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN CHALLENGING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN FAR SE DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 60 PERCENT THAT
STORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED WITH 10+ STRIKES IN THE DESCHUTES
NATIONAL FOREST ON MONDAY...AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA (FIRE ZONE
611). THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THE SISTERS RANGER
DISTRICT...ALTHOUGH LAL 3 IS POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL AS THE TRACK
OF THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA TURNS SOUTH. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OREGON LATE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE LOW OPENS
AND DEVELOPS A BROAD TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT STORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 62 97 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 68 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 65 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 64 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 62 99 65 99 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 57 94 58 95 / 0 10 10 10
LGD 56 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 56 95 58 98 / 0 10 10 10
DLS 68 101 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ611.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
77/93/93/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
805 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL ALONG JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
23Z REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING CONVECTION DECREASING IN COVERAGE...AS
BLYR BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. WEAK SHEAR AND NON-EXISTENT DCAPES
IMPLY A VERY LOW CHC OF SVR WX. MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE ISOLD FLOODING FROM ANY TRAINING TSRA. WET
GROUND/LOW FFG VALUES MAKE THE AREA ABNORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD
AMTS OVR 1 INCH BTWN 00Z-06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A FFA DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF
THREAT.
EXPECT SHRA TO DWINDLE W/LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOCUS OF
REMAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG REMNANT LL
JET AND PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NEAR TERM MDLS
MOVE THIS FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 03Z...THEN EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION MUGGY WITH LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
PARTIAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH WET GROUND AND A NEARLY CALM WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN A MAINLY RAIN-FREE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THRU EARLY PM. WARMING TEMPS
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA DURING THE PM HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW
MTNS...WHERE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LKLY PUSH A LINE OF
TSRA INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
FOR A MARGINAL RISK TUES EVENING.
HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL. 8H TEMPS TEMPS NR 17C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 07/00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW AMPLITUDE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES. AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE GIVEN DEGREE OF SPREAD AND MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THIS LARGELY
UNSETTLED AND RECENTLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY RETROGRESSION OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OFF THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCENTRL U.S. THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT WEEK/JULY 13TH AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM CA UPPER LOW
EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERLIES AND TEAMS WITH VORTEX OVER
HUDSON BAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL PA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
BECOMES WAVY AS IT STALLS OUT FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER/MASON DIXON
LINE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN THRU LATE WEEK MOST LKLY
DUE TO MCS REMNANTS OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS TRACKING EWD FROM
THE MID MS/OH VLY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT TIMING/LOCATION
AT THIS POINT. FWIW THE MODEL BIAS IS USUALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
MCS ACTIVITY. PCPN RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CA LOW ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES.
WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SENT 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
ADJUSTED TAFS BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDTIONS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LARGEST STORMS SE OF UNV.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MID DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER
LAKES/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
AIRSPACE TUE NIGHT/WED BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR PA/MD BORDER
THURS INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
738 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL ALONG JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
23Z REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING CONVECTION DECREASING IN COVERAGE...AS
BLYR BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. WEAK SHEAR AND NON-EXISTENT DCAPES
IMPLY A VERY LOW CHC OF SVR WX. MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE ISOLD FLOODING FROM ANY TRAINING TSRA. WET
GROUND/LOW FFG VALUES MAKE THE AREA ABNORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD
AMTS OVR 1 INCH BTWN 00Z-06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A FFA DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF
THREAT.
EXPECT SHRA TO DWINDLE W/LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOCUS OF
REMAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG REMNANT LL
JET AND PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NEAR TERM MDLS
MOVE THIS FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 03Z...THEN EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION MUGGY WITH LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
PARTIAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH WET GROUND AND A NEARLY CALM WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN A MAINLY RAIN-FREE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THRU EARLY PM. WARMING TEMPS
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA DURING THE PM HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW
MTNS...WHERE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LKLY PUSH A LINE OF
TSRA INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
FOR A MARGINAL RISK TUES EVENING.
HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL. 8H TEMPS TEMPS NR 17C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 07/00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW AMPLITUDE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES. AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE GIVEN DEGREE OF SPREAD AND MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THIS LARGELY
UNSETTLED AND RECENTLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY RETROGRESSION OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OFF THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCENTRL U.S. THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT WEEK/JULY 13TH AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM CA UPPER LOW
EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERLIES AND TEAMS WITH VORTEX OVER
HUDSON BAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL PA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
BECOMES WAVY AS IT STALLS OUT FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER/MASON DIXON
LINE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN THRU LATE WEEK MOST LKLY
DUE TO MCS REMNANTS OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS TRACKING EWD FROM
THE MID MS/OH VLY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT TIMING/LOCATION
AT THIS POINT. FWIW THE MODEL BIAS IS USUALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
MCS ACTIVITY. PCPN RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CA LOW ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES.
WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SENT 21Z TAF PACKAGE.
ADJUSTED TAFS BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDTIONS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MID DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER
LAKES/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
AIRSPACE TUE NIGHT/WED BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR PA/MD BORDER
THURS INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
VISUAL LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ALL BURNED
OFF. THE CU FIELD FROM SRN PA SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO GROW IN AN
AREA OF MODEST CAPE AS DEPICTED BY THE RAP. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE CREEPING SOME SHOWERS
UP INTO THE LAURELS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE TN VALLEY
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AND SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS SOME 10 WARMER THAN EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 5 DEG MILDER
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-35 KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH FOR
JULY REGISTERS AS SOME 1-3 STD DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF
AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS
GETTING WET DURING THE DAY. QPF OF A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ON AVERAGE
SEEMS REASONABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE
AIRSPACE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT
NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRO...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISUAL LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ALL BURNED
OFF. THE CU FIELD FROM SRN PA SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO GROW IN AN
AREA OF MODEST CAPE AS DEPICTED BY THE RAP. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE CREEPING SOME SHOWERS
UP INTO THE LAURELS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE TN VALLEY
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE OPENING UP AND SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS SOME 10 WARMER THAN EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 5 DEG MILDER
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-35 KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH FOR
JULY REGISTERS AS SOME 1-3 STD DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF
AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS
GETTING WET DURING THE DAY. QPF OF A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ON AVERAGE
SEEMS REASONABLE.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HEART OF A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04-20Z TUESDAY. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FORM INVOF A LEE TROUGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
MUCH OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD APPEARS THAT IT/LL
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STILL A
CLOSE CALL ENOUGH CALL FOR ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA
/MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/ LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND A WEAKENING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT WORTH ASSIGNING ANY
MORE THAN 30-40 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE
AIRSPACE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL OUT
NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRO...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...THREE AREAS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
THE LARGEST WAS A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. WILL RAISE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO LIKELY MAINLY ALONG AND E
OF I-77 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEXT WAS A LINEAR BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE UPSTATE. WILL RAISE TO LIKELY MAINLY ALONG
THE I-26 CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
MTNS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCT FOR AREAS OF RAIN COOLED
AIR. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
WORK OUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FORM AMONG THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER
SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT
HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% HIGH 90% MED 64% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 57% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FORM AMONG THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER
SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT
HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% HIGH 81% MED 63% MED 79%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 86%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 5.5 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM WITH
THE IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT EVEN AFTER
ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 00Z. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE WATCH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING MORE INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF
THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.
BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% HIGH 81% MED 63% MED 79%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 86%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS ROUNDING THE CIRCULATION...BUT
WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RADARS ALSO SHOW CONVECTION SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE SHOWERS AROUND THE LOW SHOULD
STEADILY FILL IN OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THE SRN TIER
CONVECTION MAY WRAP UP ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AS WELL...SO A GENERAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FROM TOCCOA TO ELBERTON AND ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE...SO WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 00Z.
OTHERWISE...MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT AND
SCATTER...BUT LAPS SBCAPE IS REBOUNDING NICELY WITH PLENTY OF 1000
TO 1300 J/KG VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS. WITH ANY BREAKS AT
ALL...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MANAGE TO FIRE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL
BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST
THROUGH LATE DAY. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
OUR FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE NVA SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.
BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SHOULD
SCATTER MORE RAPIDLY 15Z TO 17Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AIRFIELD 18Z TO 19Z...BUT
IT HAS BEEN OVERDONE ON RECENT DAYS IN THIS AIRMASS. A NARROW TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTN SINCE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE ALREADY NEAR 1500 J/KG NEAR THE AIRFIELD. ANTICIPATE SW
WINDS TO INCREASE WITH LOW END GUSTS WITH MIXING. ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL END THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ANY RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT/SCATTER THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY
NOON. LOWER VFR CIGS WILL FILL IN WITH ANY HEATING...AND SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL GIVEN THE UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS MAY FORM THROUGHOUT WITH SBCAPE OFF
TO A GOOD START DESPITE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS. SW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE UPSTATE SITES THIS AFTN WITH MIXING.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST. THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 75% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ATOP THE
TN VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
BENEATH REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JETMAX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
VORT IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE H5 LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. A
STRONGER IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF AROUND DAYBREAK LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS EASTCENTRAL GA. ALTHOUGH WEAK...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF SAID ACTIVITY YIELDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...THE OLD STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO SW VA WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR BEST SFC
CONVERGENCE AND THUS RESIDUAL MODEL QPF TODAY. THAT SAID...CANNOT
RULE OUT CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
MTNS THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AND ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
FROM MODEST SSW LLJ. THE FCST FEATURES NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GA/NC HIGH TERRAIN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. POPS ARE TAPERED DOWN A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
WHERE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LEVELS ARE FAVORED. ALL SAID...AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE/CONVECTION THIS MORNING THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL BEFORE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. EVEN
THEN...MODELS FAVOR RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES THUS WOULD BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY TSRA WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CELLS BEING SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE
BEST HEATING IS LIKELY. POPS WILL TAPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS EJECTING NORTHEAST. WITH
THAT...THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH
EXPIRATION AT 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AMIDST PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.
BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID MORNING
SHRA...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS UNDER SCT MID TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS. A 3HR TEMPO WAS ADDED FROM
11Z-14Z AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHRA RIDING UP THE I85
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS
TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS UNDER BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.
PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THAT OF KCLT ABOVE...HOWEVER
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH SOME DETERIORATION FCST AT KAVL AS
CURRENT PRECIP SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE AIRFIELD WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE...TRIED TO TIME PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING PER LATEST
CAMS AT ALL AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NC ADJACENT TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THUS KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH
VCTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES FEATURE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST. THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% HIGH 88% HIGH 97% HIGH 93%
KHKY HIGH 86% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 96% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NC AT THIS TIME. RATES HAVENT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BEST THERMO FORCING
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EVIDENT ON LATEST SPC MUCAPE PLOTS.
TWEAKED POPS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
COVERAGE AND CAMPOP TRENDS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL THEREFORE NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE/NEEDED IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID MORNING
SHRA...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA. INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS UNDER SCT MID TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS. A 3HR TEMPO WAS ADDED FROM
11Z-14Z AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHRA RIDING UP THE I85
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS
TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS UNDER BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.
PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THAT OF KCLT ABOVE...HOWEVER
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH SOME DETERIORATION FCST AT KAVL AS
CURRENT PRECIP SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE AIRFIELD WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE...TRIED TO TIME PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING PER LATEST
CAMS AT ALL AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NC ADJACENT TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THUS KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH
VCTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES FEATURE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST. THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 57% MED 78% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 66% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
900 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
A PERSISTENT BUT RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST THROUGH THIS AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.74 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. UPDATED
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THIS THREAT. ALSO...HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS
THROUGH THIS AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS.
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA AND HELP TO
INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE COMING TO AN END.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN CWA
BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
RANGES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...THERE MAY BE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AS STORMS TEND TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LOWER POPS
AREAWIDE AND CONFINE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
THESE STORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS THESE AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MID JULY SUMMER
WEATHER. SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
HELPING TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE KTUP AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
944 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS HAS QUICKLY FORMED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
SINCE SUNRISE...LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AN EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST WORDING ACCORDINGLY.
STILL APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MIDSUMMER PATTERN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WSR-88D PROFILERS
SHOWED AND UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE TN...LIFTING EAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AR...SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT.
TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW LIFT INTO EASTERN KY...WITH GRADUALLY
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OR
REDEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE WEEK...AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW DROPS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AREAS NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I40 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL DOWN TO OR BELOW
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER A TWO WEEK PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED TS. ADDED VCTS
AT ALL 4 SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS STORMS
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW 5-8KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 2-4KTS OVERNIGHT.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
657 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MIDSUMMER PATTERN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WSR-88D PROFILERS
SHOWED AND UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE TN...LIFTING EAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AR...SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT.
TODAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW LIFT INTO EASTERN KY...WITH GRADUALLY
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OR
REDEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE WEEK...AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW DROPS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AREAS NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I40 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL DOWN TO OR BELOW
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER A TWO WEEK PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED TS. ADDED VCTS
AT ALL 4 SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS STORMS
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE
S-SW 5-8KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 2-4KTS OVERNIGHT.
JPM3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
952 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE EXPANSION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST TO
THE NM STATE LINE. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA RECEIVED ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH SEVERAL LARGE AREAS
RECEIVING WELL OVER TWO INCHES AND HAVE CAUSED SOME AREAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THAT WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOOD RISK. JH/GS
&&
.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MAKE TERMINAL
FORECASTS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST FOR KLBB AND KPVW AND A BIT
BEYOND FOR KCDS WITH VSBYS FALLING TO MVFR WITH STRONGER TSRA.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE CIGS DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY TO IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY OUTSIDE
AREAS OF PCPN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. JH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...THE WORK WEEK IS ROARING TO A START. A COLD
FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST
ENTERING AMA AS OF 20Z. WE ALSO HAVE A SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIRD INGREDIENT...AMPLE MOISTURE. AS OF 20Z...WE ARE SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FIRING ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THERE IS THE SET UP.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BREAKOUT OF THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH SHOW A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST DURATION OF RAIN TO BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. HAVE PAID ATTENTION
TO ONE NOTABLE FEATURE PRESENT ON THE GFS AROUND THE 6Z TIME
PERIOD...AN ENHANCED AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA THAT
MAY PROVIDE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THE FRONT AND SFC LOW EXIT THE AREA...THUS TAKING WITH
IT THE RAINFALL. HAVE UPDATED THIS FORECAST TO HAVE THE DRYING TREND
START IN THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH BOTH OF THE EXITING FEATURES LATE
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...
PRECIP WILL STILL BE ONGOING LATE TUES/EARLY WED AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN LIFT BEHIND AN
ALREADY PASSED FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE TROF
LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH BY MID WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AND THIS FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST THRU LATE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WE SIT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND JUST EAST OF A TROF.
RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH THE CENTER OF THE 594 DM
HIGH RIGHT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE PLACING THE WEST TEXAS REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TERRAIN INFLUENCED CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE IN OUR
DIRECTION. UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 69 58 84 / 80 40 20 30
TULIA 61 68 59 82 / 80 50 30 30
PLAINVIEW 62 69 61 82 / 80 60 30 30
LEVELLAND 63 73 61 84 / 80 50 30 30
LUBBOCK 64 73 62 83 / 80 60 40 30
DENVER CITY 66 77 63 85 / 80 50 30 30
BROWNFIELD 64 76 62 85 / 80 60 30 30
CHILDRESS 66 73 64 85 / 90 80 50 30
SPUR 65 75 63 85 / 90 80 50 30
ASPERMONT 68 82 66 88 / 80 80 60 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>038.
&&
$$
02/23/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
SMALL BATCH OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THAT CONVECTION IS
NOW GONE BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF CHANCE POP OUT WEST ACROSS
MAINLY VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME SH/TS
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
BOARD WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT WITH LARGE CLUSTER OF
STORMS ACROSS NW TEXAS...AND OBVIOUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER TEXAS...WILL KEEP THE POP IN PLACE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN TO OUR AREA.
WINDS STILL REMAIN GUSTY IN MANY LOCATIONS AND THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER NW TEXAS MAY KEEP THEM A BIT STRONGER OVERNIGHT OR
AT LEAST DELAY A DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE THIS EVENING. DID SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT GRIDDS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH FEW/SCT050 FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. OFF TO THE NW OF THE REGION...STRONGER TSRA
IS AIDING IN CIRRUS BLOWOFF AND THIS WILL SHIFT OVER KDRT FIRST AND
THEN REST OF REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE TSRA/SHRA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ANY TAF SITES...LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP 05-
08Z ACROSS CENTRAL SITES AND FALL TO LOW MVFR WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF IFR POSSIBLE. HRRR INDICATES SOME CHANCES AT CIGS REDUCING TO 600-
900 FEET AT TIMES 09-14Z BUT FEEL OVERALL LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL. CIGS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR
TO TODAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS LATE AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY CALM OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN NEAR 10-15 KT AND PICK BACK UP TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT BY THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY PEAKING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST (40%) ACROSS
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH CHANCES DECREASING TO 20% ALONG A DEL
RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VAL
VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...DRY AND WARM
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS
ALMOST ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AS SOILS DRY OUT AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
NEAR 100 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 92 75 93 75 / - - 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 91 75 92 74 / - - 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 74 92 74 / - 0 0 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 74 91 73 / - 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 94 77 95 76 / 20 20 20 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 91 75 92 74 / - 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 93 73 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 75 92 74 / - 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 91 76 92 75 / - 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 92 75 92 74 / - 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 74 92 75 / - 0 0 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH FEW/SCT050 FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. OFF TO THE NW OF THE REGION...STRONGER TSRA
IS AIDING IN CIRRUS BLOWOFF AND THIS WILL SHIFT OVER KDRT FIRST AND
THEN REST OF REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE TSRA/SHRA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ANY TAF SITES...LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP 05-
08Z ACROSS CENTRAL SITES AND FALL TO LOW MVFR WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF IFR POSSIBLE. HRRR INDICATES SOME CHANCES AT CIGS REDUCING TO 600-
900 FEET AT TIMES 09-14Z BUT FEEL OVERALL LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL. CIGS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR
TO TODAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS LATE AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY CALM OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN NEAR 10-15 KT AND PICK BACK UP TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT BY THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY PEAKING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST (40%) ACROSS
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH CHANCES DECREASING TO 20% ALONG A DEL
RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VAL
VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...DRY AND WARM
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS
ALMOST ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AS SOILS DRY OUT AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
NEAR 100 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 92 75 93 75 / - - 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 91 75 92 74 / - - 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 74 92 74 / - 0 0 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 74 91 73 / - 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 94 77 95 76 / 20 20 20 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 91 75 92 74 / - 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 93 73 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 75 92 74 / - 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 91 76 92 75 / - 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 92 75 92 74 / - 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 74 92 75 / - 0 0 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z NORTHEAST OF A KADM /ARDMORE OKLAHOMA/
TO KF44 /ATHENS TEXAS/ LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES.
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AS OF 04Z...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE WACO REGION BY
11Z AND MAYBE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 13Z. THUS HAVE PLACED
BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 11-16Z PERIOD AND A TEMPO BKN025 IN
THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 13-16Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
EARLIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SENT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BACK TO THE WEST WHICH HAS SINCE SUPPORTED
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. AIDED BY WEAK ASCENT FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL
SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THIS CONVECTION
HAS EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST PARTS OF FANNIN...LAMAR AND
DELTA COUNTIES THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY
THE HRRR THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH
CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF NORTH TEXAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
EARLY AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADARS OBSERVED SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND SOUTH NEAR A LINE
FROM COPPERAS COVE TO CENTERVILLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GOOD
NEWS FOR THIS EVENING`S INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES IS THAT
SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND RADAR DATA DO NOT INDICATE ANY SOURCE OF
ORGANIZED LIFT TO SUPPORT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITHOUT AN
OBVIOUS SOURCE OF LIFT...ASSUME BUOYANCY IS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY
MEANS OF CONVECTION INITIATION...AND BUOYANCY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNSET AS THE SURFACE HEATING BUDGET TURNS
OVER TO COOLING VERSUS WARMING.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDED THE COVERAGE OF 20 POPS TO
INCLUDE COUNTIES RIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS DEVELOPING AT 230 PM CDT.
LEFT IN THE 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN CENTRAL TEXAS
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TO THE GULF COAST. LEFT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS OUTFLOW
FROM THE PERSISTENT MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION NEAR ARKLATEX HAS
LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RIGHT AT THE LAMAR/RED RIVER COUNTY LINE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING UPON THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
CAUSING A REGENERATION OF STORMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NOW...AND
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD OVER LAMAR...DELTA...AND
HOPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LEFT 10 POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OTHER AREAS AS A "POP-UP" SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DRIVEN BY
THE HEATING OF THE DAY/BUOYANCY IS HARD TO RULE OUT JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 7 PM.
FOR THIS EVENING...THINK THAT ANY BUOYANCY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS WE APPROACH
SUNSET...BEFORE 9 PM. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTERRUPT EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES
IS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...EAST OF A BONHAM TO GREENVILLE TO
EMORY LINE. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD FROM RED RIVER
COUNTY...IT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST SUNSET. THINK
THAT WITH SUBSIDENCE WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE REGION IN
GENERAL...THAT A LOT OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL ONLY CARRY 20
POPS THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS EVENING...AND MOST INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO COMMENCE WITHOUT DELAY OR INTERRUPTION FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY...MANY OF THE CONVECTION PARAMETERIZING MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE QPF OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SIMPLY WENT AHEAD WITH 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA AS AN ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM WAS DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT IN ANY OF THE MODEL DATA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO APPEARS TO
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS ENERGY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. THINK
THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE.
IF THE ONGOING MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION SIMPLY CONTINUES TO
REGENERATE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IT MAY LEAVE A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY. IF A COHERENT BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN CWA TOMORROW...THE LIFT WOULD TEND TO BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AS OUR CWA WOULD REPRESENT THE
WARMER SIDE OF THIS WEAK FRONT. LEFT SOME 20 POPS IN PLACE ALONG A
LINE FROM BONHAM TO EMORY TO HEARNE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...IF NO BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE...MAY BE ABLE TO
LOWER THESE POPS TOMORROW. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA...SO LEFT 10 POPS IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THIS TROUGH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
SEND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
LINED UP WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD ONLY ADD RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
HELP SEND THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE STORMS ARE
ALONG THIS FRONT...THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...IT
WILL PROBABLY STALL OUT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO
THE CWA IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE BASICALLY RELYING ON THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO DRAG IT
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A VALID
SOLUTION...STRONG CONSOLIDATED COLD POOLS OFTEN TIMES ACT JUST
LIKE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONTS. THE MAIN REASON CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IS BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT ARE
ADVERTISING THIS SOLUTION DO NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST
CONVECTION...BUT RATHER PARAMETERIZE CONVECTION TO SAVE
COMPUTATION TIME.
CONVECTION IS COMPLEX...AND IF THE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE AS MANY
STORMS ALONG IT AS MODELS ARE INDICATING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY
STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IF THAT OCCURS...OUR RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. CAN NOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL BRING THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THIS CONSENSUS UNLESS OBSERVATION
DATA...I.E. A SPARSE COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
UPSTREAM...INDICATES OTHERWISE. ASSUMING THE FRONT MAKES IT TO
NORTH TEXAS...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ASSUMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD AS ADVERTISED...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WHILE HEAT BUILDS
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 NEXT WEEKEND WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE MOST. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
HIGHS START OUT IN THE MID 90S...CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 93 77 93 77 / 10 10 5 5 10
WACO, TX 75 92 75 93 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 73 89 74 90 75 / 30 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 75 92 75 93 76 / 20 10 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 91 75 91 76 / 20 10 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 77 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 75 90 75 92 76 / 20 10 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 92 75 92 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 74 91 74 92 76 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 74 92 74 93 75 / 10 10 5 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.
MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE
MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN
CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...ESPECIALLY KLWB AND KBLF. LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WHERE SOLAR HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. DAN IS THE TAF SITE WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AFTER THE
HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTH.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT 4-7KTS TONIGHT. THEN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.
MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE WISCONSIN DELLS AT 8 PM
THIS EVENING...AND WILL ARRIVE IN MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE
ABOUT 1 AM. NONE OF THIS STUFF HAS HAD LIGHTNING AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAPE OUT
THERE TO SUPPORT IT IF IT CAN GET ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NIL AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY POOR. THE
BEST SUPPORT IS ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS
DECENT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED AND LEADING TO SOME LOW LCL
HEIGHTS. WE/RE GETTING SOME SCARY LOOKING CLOUDS AND ONE DID
RESULT IN A CITIZEN REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER THIS EVENING UP IN
COLUMBIA COUNTY. A SPOTTER PIC CAME IN AND CONFIRMED IT WAS JUST A
SATURATING UPDRAFT.
THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE BY 3-4AM TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DUMP
SOME QUICK HEAVY RAIN.
AS STATED IN AN SPS EARLIER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SMOKE POOLING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
IN THE POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. A PARTICULATE FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KMSN BY 03Z
THIS EVENING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 06-07Z TUE. THE COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO BRING THESE LOWER OPERATING CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL LIFT
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION. WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU. ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT. FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL. COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY. GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA. SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH. NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES. TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.
BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.
PC
&&
.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY. HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH. LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.
VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.
STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
MARINE...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH. LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.
VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.
STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
543 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA. HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING. THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER. KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...VFR PREVAILS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND MVFR...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER SUPPER TIME WITH STORM
STRENGTH DECREASING...AND LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE EVENING IN STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE...AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM NEAR
1 INCH IN THE MORNING UP TO 1.12 INCHES ABOUT 21Z. THE BEST UPLIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS WILL BE OVER NW CO EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT CO ZONE 12 IN THE ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW SO LONGER DURATION SHOWERS AND
PROBLEMS FROM EXCESS RUNOFF ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE AS THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH
KEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO SE UT AND SW COIN
THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HRRR SOLUTION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND TRANSITORY RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM AZ THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT...
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN BENEATH CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MAY GET PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHEARS NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT CLEAR AS
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TYPICALLY DO NOT TRACK INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER THERE IS FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. "DRIER" DOES NOT MEAN DRY
AS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD STILL OCCUR TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE AND SW COLORADO. ONCE THE PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
DOWNSTREAM...THE MONSOON REASSERTS ITSELF AND EXPECT THE MOISTURE
STREAM FROM MEXICO TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY BRINGS AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NRN
HALF AFTER 17Z WITH NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA AND LOCAL CIGS BKN030CB.
ISOLATED +TSRA/+SHRA IS EXPECTED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AND
LOCALIZED G25-30KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AROUND
FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SOME LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND
BERKSHIRES.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND
THESE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOON. WITH THE
DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AT SOME POINT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW THEM TO HAVE A
GREATER COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM
HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...PWAT VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE
OF RATHER HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SVR STORMS AREN/T A CONCERN TODAY
THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.
SKIES TODAY LOOK TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.
MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
KPOU-KPSF. THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB
SOON THEN INTO KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH EITHER A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR. HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.
AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ...WHERE
SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND BERKSHIRES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE CATSKILLS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...ALTHOUGH
SOME 50S WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THE LONGEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL MUGGY....AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.
WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR KPOU-KPSF.
THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB SOON THEN INTO
KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH EITHER A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR. HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.
AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND ONLY
DROP TO 50-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.
BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.
MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 40 20 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 91 79 / 40 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 76 92 75 / 40 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WAS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN WE INITIALLY THOUGHT, PERHAPS
DUE TO THE CAP BEING TOO STRONG AND TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AS THE DRY LAYER WAS ABNORMALLY LOW IN HEIGHT. CONVECTION HAS
WANED WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS PRESENT. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...
DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FL. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
SURFACE-BASED CAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO 4500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. THE 500 MB TEMP ON THE MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS -9.3C/COLDEST HISTORICALLY FOR THIS
DATE. SO UPDRAFTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE AS WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK. THE THREATS WILL BE BOTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL.
THE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. TSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NOW WEST OF THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. ADDITIONAL INTENSE TSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TSTORM
OUTFLOW COULD SPAWN NEW TSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COASTS
EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION
OF AN E-SE WIND FLOW PATTERN WITH DAILY CONVECTION FOCUSED
INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND SOME NIGHTTIME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE NAVY MODEL SHOWS THE SAL IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL TOMORROW
THEN DEPARTING THE AREA ON WED WITH SAL REMAINING OVER THE CARIB
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SO A RETURN TO MORE BLUER SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA
(FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS IMPRESSED
WITH A PASSING H5 TUTT- LIKE LOW PUSHING INTO THE BAHAMAS BY
MIDWEEK...WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.5
INCHES BY FRIDAY. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MORE LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVERALL.
MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF MOSTLY 1-3 FT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 91 80 / 50 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 40 30 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 91 79 / 40 30 20 20
NAPLES 91 76 93 75 / 50 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
242 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET SO SOME ISOLATED
FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME
HEAVY RAIN MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN THE GRIDS.
TODAY...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHEAST. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST SO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH
SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE
COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZE WORKS
INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG.
EVENING RAIN AROUND OGB AND AGS HAS ADDED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR AGS/OGB. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR FOG BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. LESS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SUPPORTS ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE.
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR
LESS AND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. A 25 KNOT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE 850
MB TROUGH AXIS. 700 MB TROUGH AXIS WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES SINCE 06Z
OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNRISE WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THE LOW LEVEL JET BACKS TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASES FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM EMPORIA TO LAWRENCE SOUTH WITH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 ASSIGNED
THE HIGHEST POPS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FACT THAT WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING WILL
BE LOCATED. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS AS IT HAS THE BETTER LIFT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL KEEP THE BEST LIFT FOCUSED OVER MISSOURI AND,
THUS ONLY FAR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE CLIPPED BY PRECIPITATION.
HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THIS LATTER SOLUTION AND THUS HAVE TRIMMED
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION IS
LIMITED, THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S. THE CWA LOOKS TO BE BRIEFLY BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AS
THE WAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, HELPING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THERE ARE SLIGHT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS WARM FRONT AND
WHERE THE BEST ZONE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL BE, THEY ALL
SHOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING SOME PRECIPITATION SO HAVE
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT WARM-AIR
ADVECTION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING BACK INTO THE 90S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN KS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRYER AIR. THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
HOLD ON LONGER. AT THIS TIME, AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBY AT TOP AND FOE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN
ANY CASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE I328
TO I332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
THE FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS HOWEVER ARE
NOT AS EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL AS WHAT THEY ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW, IMPROVING MOISTURE, AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO LATE MAY GIVE RISE TO
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SO WILL BE SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT WILL BE LOCATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON LOCATION OF A WEST
TO EAST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 12Z THURSDAY AND WHERE THE
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. WILL THEREFORE FOCUS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THESE LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE UPPER
LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z TUESDAY, IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF RAINFALL FOR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS LATE WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST
HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPERING
PRECIPITATION OFF AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 78 56 81 64 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 77 56 85 65 / 10 10 30 50
LBL 75 57 83 65 / 20 10 20 50
HYS 77 56 80 63 / 10 10 10 60
P28 74 60 78 65 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.
SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE 328 TO
332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 78 56 81 64 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 77 56 85 65 / 10 10 30 50
LBL 75 57 83 65 / 20 10 20 50
HYS 77 56 80 63 / 10 10 10 60
P28 74 60 78 65 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1214 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH 250MB JET STREAK LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE BASE OF THE
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER EAST A
500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A THE 700MB AND 850MB BAROCLINIC/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN AREA OF BETTER 850MB
AND 700MB MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE AT 00Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY NEAR THIS SURFACE HIGH RANGED FROM +14
TO +16C.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 80 64 88 / 10 30 50 40
GCK 55 81 64 89 / 10 40 50 30
EHA 55 85 65 90 / 10 50 50 20
LBL 56 83 66 90 / 10 50 50 20
HYS 56 80 63 84 / 10 20 60 60
P28 61 80 66 90 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN KS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRYER AIR. THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
HOLD ON LONGER. AT THIS TIME, AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBY AT TOP AND FOE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN
ANY CASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
414 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY W/INCREASING HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THE CWA WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL APCH THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND A CAP. 7 TO
8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AS
SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING FACTOR INITIALLY
WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER W/THE ONSHORE
WIND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER
TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A
STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT
LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF
35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL
WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
221 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.
FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
OTHER THAN LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME SMOKE WILL STILL BE ALOFT...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS AT THE SFC FOR VISIBILITY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
254 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THERE WAS NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY OUTSIDE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS S INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALSO SETS
UP OVER SE MT. THE SREF SHOWED SURFACE CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER SE MT INTO BIG HORN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LESSER PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE ELSEWHERE. THERE WAS ALSO
A CHANCE OF 40 KT OF SHEAR OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 1 INCH
OVER THE SE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RAP LINED UP WELL WITH THE
SREF WITH IT/S INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. NOTED THE WRF SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY HAD HIGHER CAPES THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WITH KBHK
PEAKING OUT AT 1600 J/KG BY 00Z WED. SO...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER SOME MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGHER POPS
IN SE MT...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NNE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
UPSLOPE.
MIXING TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE SMOKE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
A COOLER PUSH OF AIR WILL DRIVE S THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF SMOKE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKED EVEN WEAKER OVER THE AREA ON WED IN A WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...THEN
RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. MIXING TO 700 MB WILL
MAKE FOR A MARGINALLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. KEPT SOME POPS OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING...THEN WENT MAINLY DRY AFTER 06Z DUE TO WANING
INSTABILITY. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WIDESPREAD 90+ F HIGHS ARE FORECAST. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE LAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES HAVE OFFERED UP SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
THAT WAVE...BUT IN GENERAL THERE/S AGREEMENT THAT DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AND THUS THE SEVERE STORM RISK
WILL BE LIMITED...ALBEIT NON-ZERO. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE GREATER
STORM HAZARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO INTENSIFY AND BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOTTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOO.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THIS PATTERN IF THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES LIKE THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST. HOWEVER...BY NEXT TUESDAY THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
COULD YIELD SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE DID INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE TAFS
TO COVER THAT POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY
ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. FINALLY...SMOKE MAY RETURN AT THE SURFACE BY
EVENING THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 056/080 058/086 061/090 062/087 062/092 063/092
2/T 22/T 11/B 23/T 32/T 21/B 11/U
LVM 081 049/077 051/084 054/085 055/083 055/089 055/090
3/T 33/T 23/T 24/T 33/T 21/B 12/T
HDN 085 055/082 057/089 060/094 060/090 060/095 060/095
2/T 22/T 11/B 23/T 42/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 084 056/082 058/089 063/094 064/092 063/094 064/093
2/T 22/T 11/B 13/T 33/T 21/B 11/U
4BQ 083 055/080 057/087 061/093 062/091 062/093 062/091
4/T 22/T 12/T 13/T 32/T 11/B 11/U
BHK 079 053/079 055/085 060/090 062/090 061/090 061/089
2/T 22/T 11/U 12/T 33/T 22/T 11/B
SHR 079 052/074 053/083 056/087 056/086 056/089 056/089
2/T 33/T 33/T 23/T 32/T 11/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SH/TS. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
AT MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT GUP/FMN. LOW CLOUDS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE COMMONPLACE AT LVS/TCC/ROW AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ABQ/AEG/SAF DUE TO A NEARLY SATURATED LOWER LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. MVFR CIGS COULD PLAGUE THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. SH/TS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. NEAR AWW WIND SPEEDS AT ABQ THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1010 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. ABUNDANT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND WESTERN AREAS NEVER GOT GOING
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS SOUTHEAST AREAS IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. DO NOT EXPECT
STORM INTENSITY TO REACH THAT OF EARLIER CONVECTION NOW THAT WE
HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO PERCOLATE OUT THERE AS WELL. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL AIRMASS FOR EARLY JULY WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY AREAS NOT RISING OUT OF
THE 70S ON TUESDAY. THIS COOL AIR WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY HOWEVER SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE STORMS ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EAST WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.2
AND 1.4 ARE INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING ALOFT FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HAMMERING THE EAST
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FFA
LOOKS VERY GOOD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...HOWEVER
FARTHER WEST CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
ACTIVITY NOTED ON LATEST 18Z NAM/HRRR PRODUCTS. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW SINCE STORMS MAY STILL FIRE UP LATER AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RIPE ALONG THE DIVIDE.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND
VERY COOL AIR FOR EARLY JULY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL ATTEMPT THE RECYCLE PROCESS
AGAIN WITH A THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM. A BIG
UPTICK IS SHOWN THURSDAY WITH A MONSOON BURST PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS. A HUGE SLUG OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT ELEVATED THREAT WINDOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NOTED FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT TREND WESTWARD TOWARD THE AZ STATE LINE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD EASTERN NM.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM MOST ANY
STORM DUE TO THE EXCEEDINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT. A GUSTY EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TRACKS WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FEATURED TUESDAY CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE
THE EAST SHOULD BE QUIETER. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE CONSIDERABLE DEW POINT DECREASE FORECASTED BY THE NAM. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY THURSDAY GFS INDICATES AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL THETA E VALUES AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND KEEPS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY DRYING ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TEMPORARY GLITCH.
THE PLUME...AND UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR EAST...GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T CHANGE LOCATIONS SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT DOWN THE FLOW
OF MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THE EAST MIGHT BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE WETTING
RAIN NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROJECTED STEERING FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE...WITH THE OVERALL WARMEST AND CLOSEST TO AVERAGE DAYS NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE THE BEST OVERALL. AREA OF POOR
VENT RATES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AS
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NM.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1010 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. ABUNDANT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND WESTERN AREAS NEVER GOT GOING
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS SOUTHEAST AREAS IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. DO NOT EXPECT
STORM INTENSITY TO REACH THAT OF EARLIER CONVECTION NOW THAT WE
HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO PERCOLATE OUT THERE AS WELL. UPDATES ALREADY
OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...550 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INSTIGATE NUMEROUS
SH/TS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. EVENTUALLY
THE TS WILL DWINDLE BUT GIVE WAY TO LONG DURATION RAINFALL. LOW
CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE A CERTAINTY AT MANY OF THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE EASTERN LOCATIONS
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. A STRONG EAST CANYON
WIND WILL ALSO PLAGUE ABQ BUT DUE TO CONVECTION ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE MTNS IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER AWW SPEEDS WILL BE MET FOR A
LONG DURATION LATER TONIGHT. SUSPECT THEY COULD BASE ON A STRONG
COLD POOL TO THE EAST SO AN AWW COULD BE FORTHCOMING THIS EVE.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY COOL AIRMASS FOR EARLY JULY WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY AREAS NOT RISING OUT OF
THE 70S ON TUESDAY. THIS COOL AIR WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY HOWEVER SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE STORMS ARE ON TAP WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EAST WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.2
AND 1.4 ARE INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING ALOFT FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HAMMERING THE EAST
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FFA
LOOKS VERY GOOD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...HOWEVER
FARTHER WEST CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
ACTIVITY NOTED ON LATEST 18Z NAM/HRRR PRODUCTS. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN WATCH FOR NOW SINCE STORMS MAY STILL FIRE UP LATER AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RIPE ALONG THE DIVIDE.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND
VERY COOL AIR FOR EARLY JULY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL ATTEMPT THE RECYCLE PROCESS
AGAIN WITH A THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM. A BIG
UPTICK IS SHOWN THURSDAY WITH A MONSOON BURST PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS. A HUGE SLUG OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT ELEVATED THREAT WINDOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NOTED FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT TREND WESTWARD TOWARD THE AZ STATE LINE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
WARMER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD EASTERN NM.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM MOST ANY
STORM DUE TO THE EXCEEDINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT. A GUSTY EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TRACKS WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FEATURED TUESDAY CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE
THE EAST SHOULD BE QUIETER. SOME DRIER AIR MAY ATTEMPT TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE CONSIDERABLE DEW POINT DECREASE FORECASTED BY THE NAM. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY THURSDAY GFS INDICATES AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL THETA E VALUES AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND KEEPS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY DRYING ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TEMPORARY GLITCH.
THE PLUME...AND UPPER HIGH CENTER TO OUR EAST...GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T CHANGE LOCATIONS SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT DOWN THE FLOW
OF MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THE EAST MIGHT BE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE WETTING
RAIN NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE PROJECTED STEERING FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE...WITH THE OVERALL WARMEST AND CLOSEST TO AVERAGE DAYS NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE THE BEST OVERALL. AREA OF POOR
VENT RATES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AS
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NM.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD. ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES. THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO. POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 96% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
STRATOCU IS PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY THIN
OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPTS STILL APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. INTERESTINGLY THERE
IS A SMALL POCKET OF LIKELY STRATUS OR FOG OVER ABBEVILLE CO THAT
MATCHES WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS. THE HRRR SPREADS THESE CLOUDS NEWD
THRU DAWN...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME VERY LOW VSBYS IN THE SAME AREA.
I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND OBS...THOUGH THE LOW VSBYS DO
NOT SEEM AS LIKELY AS THE STRATUS.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.
MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.
ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 91% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED UPSTREAM. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. HRRR TRANSLATES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD BEFORE
DYING OUT BY 12Z.
FOR TODAY...THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RAMPING UP A BIT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN PARTICULAR. WILL INCLUDE A 50 POP
ACROSS OUR NW...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU
GO.
TONIGHT...VORT CHANNEL WILL STILL LOOK BEST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR NW AND TAPER THAT DOWN TO 30 POPS
EAST AND SOUTH.
ON WED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE LOWER POPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THU AS WELL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE GREATEST DOMINANCE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY. THUS...THIS PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS RATHER
DRY AT THIS TIME. BUT...WILL STILL INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS AS WE MOVE
A BIT TOWARD CLIMO NUMBERS IN TERMS OF PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...HOT WEATHER TO RETURN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20-22C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 89 72 91 72 / 40 30 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 86 71 89 72 / 40 60 40 20
CROSSVILLE 82 70 86 69 / 30 30 40 20
COLUMBIA 90 71 92 71 / 30 30 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 88 71 91 71 / 20 20 30 20
WAVERLY 88 72 90 72 / 40 60 30 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
A GENERAL PERSISTENCE TREND IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES OVER THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INSTABILITY OVER NW TX COULD SPREAD
SE INTO THE DRT AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...AND A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD GENERATE GUSTY OUTFLOWS. A WIDE WINDOW FOR TIMING AND MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THIS
TAF UPDATE FROM INCLUDING THUNDER. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME AND EVENING WINDS GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 27 KNOTS. THE WELL MIXED AIR SHOULD KEEP MORNING STRATUS
LAYERS MAINLY MVFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
UPDATE...
SMALL BATCH OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THAT CONVECTION IS
NOW GONE BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF CHANCE POP OUT WEST ACROSS
MAINLY VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME SH/TS
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
BOARD WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT WITH LARGE CLUSTER OF
STORMS ACROSS NW TEXAS...AND OBVIOUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER TEXAS...WILL KEEP THE POP IN PLACE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN TO OUR AREA.
WINDS STILL REMAIN GUSTY IN MANY LOCATIONS AND THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER NW TEXAS MAY KEEP THEM A BIT STRONGER OVERNIGHT OR
AT LEAST DELAY A DECREASE IN SPEEDS LATE THIS EVENING. DID SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT GRIDS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH FEW/SCT050 FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. OFF TO THE NW OF THE REGION...STRONGER TSRA
IS AIDING IN CIRRUS BLOWOFF AND THIS WILL SHIFT OVER KDRT FIRST AND
THEN REST OF REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE TSRA/SHRA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ANY TAF SITES...LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP 05-
08Z ACROSS CENTRAL SITES AND FALL TO LOW MVFR WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF IFR POSSIBLE. HRRR INDICATES SOME CHANCES AT CIGS REDUCING TO 600-
900 FEET AT TIMES 09-14Z BUT FEEL OVERALL LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL. CIGS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SIMILAR
TO TODAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS LATE AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY CALM OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN NEAR 10-15 KT AND PICK BACK UP TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT BY THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY PEAKING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST (40%) ACROSS
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH CHANCES DECREASING TO 20% ALONG A DEL
RIO TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VAL
VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...DRY AND WARM
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS
ALMOST ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AS SOILS DRY OUT AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
NEAR 100 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 93 75 92 74 / 0 0 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 93 73 / 0 0 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 95 76 95 74 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 73 / 0 0 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 92 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 74 / 0 0 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 75 92 74 / 0 0 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1241 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECAST WILL PERSIST AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS
TERMINALS THROUGH TUE MORNING DUE TO PERIODICALLY INCR/DECR CIGS
AND VSBYS AND EMBEDDED TS WITHIN NUMEROUS SHRA. STILL ANTICIPATE
CIGS TO EVENTUALLY DROP WELL INTO MVFR AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE VSBYS FOLLOW THAT TREND AS WELL.
EARLIER THOUGHTS OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY BE PREMATURE. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ALL THREE TERMINALS COULD
BE UNDER MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUE. THIS TREND HAS
BEEN REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. JH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE EXPANSION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST TO
THE NM STATE LINE. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA RECEIVED ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH SEVERAL LARGE AREAS
RECEIVING WELL OVER TWO INCHES AND HAVE CAUSED SOME AREAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THAT WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOOD RISK. JH/GS
AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MAKE TERMINAL
FORECASTS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST FOR KLBB AND KPVW AND A BIT
BEYOND FOR KCDS WITH VSBYS FALLING TO MVFR WITH STRONGER TSRA.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE CIGS DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY TO IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY OUTSIDE
AREAS OF PCPN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. JH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...THE WORK WEEK IS ROARING TO A START. A COLD
FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST
ENTERING AMA AS OF 20Z. WE ALSO HAVE A SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIRD INGREDIENT...AMPLE MOISTURE. AS OF 20Z...WE ARE SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FIRING ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THERE IS THE SET UP.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BREAKOUT OF THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH SHOW A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST DURATION OF RAIN TO BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. HAVE PAID ATTENTION
TO ONE NOTABLE FEATURE PRESENT ON THE GFS AROUND THE 6Z TIME
PERIOD...AN ENHANCED AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA THAT
MAY PROVIDE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THE FRONT AND SFC LOW EXIT THE AREA...THUS TAKING WITH
IT THE RAINFALL. HAVE UPDATED THIS FORECAST TO HAVE THE DRYING TREND
START IN THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH BOTH OF THE EXITING FEATURES LATE
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...
PRECIP WILL STILL BE ONGOING LATE TUES/EARLY WED AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN LIFT BEHIND AN
ALREADY PASSED FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE TROF
LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH BY MID WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AND THIS FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST THRU LATE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WE SIT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND JUST EAST OF A TROF.
RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH THE CENTER OF THE 594 DM
HIGH RIGHT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE PLACING THE WEST TEXAS REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TERRAIN INFLUENCED CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE IN OUR
DIRECTION. UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 69 58 84 / 80 40 20 30
TULIA 61 68 59 82 / 80 50 30 30
PLAINVIEW 62 69 61 82 / 80 60 30 30
LEVELLAND 63 73 61 84 / 80 50 30 30
LUBBOCK 64 73 62 83 / 80 60 40 30
DENVER CITY 66 77 63 85 / 80 50 30 30
BROWNFIELD 64 76 62 85 / 80 60 30 30
CHILDRESS 66 73 64 85 / 90 80 50 30
SPUR 65 75 63 85 / 90 80 50 30
ASPERMONT 68 82 66 88 / 80 80 60 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>038.
&&
$$
02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HRRR STILL HINTING AT A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO
THE SW OF DENVER WHICH COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT WOULD HINDER FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT WITH PWS STILL HOVERING AROUND 1.15 INCHES
COULD DROP UP TO AN INCH IN 1 HOUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SMOKE
FROM CANADA THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS
DISSIPATED TO AN EXTENT BUT LOW LEVEL HAZE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS VS CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM
DENVER EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO LIFT. SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EARLY MORNING...ONLY TO INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE SPONSORED BY A BIT
OF LIFT SUPPLIED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT
WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALSO WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE A
DENVER CYCLONE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBILITY
OF A LANDSPOUT TORNADO. OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LOW TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...BUT ALSO SPREAD
EAST TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL NON-DIURNAL PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE RATHER LOW BUT HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE CONVECTION. AS THE WEEK WEARS ON THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO COLORADO BRING MONSOON-
LIKE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
DIURNAL PATTERN OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE BEST AREAS TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUCH AS
PARK COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 921 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VIS WILL HOVER AROUND 3-5 SM WITH HAZE
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE SW OF DENVER WITH A POSSIBLE CYCLONE BUT
WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AIRPORT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND 21 TO 22Z WITH MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT. WINDS AT THE AIRPORT
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE...AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM NEAR
1 INCH IN THE MORNING UP TO 1.12 INCHES ABOUT 21Z. THE BEST UPLIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS WILL BE OVER NW CO EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT CO ZONE 12 IN THE ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW SO LONGER DURATION SHOWERS AND
PROBLEMS FROM EXCESS RUNOFF ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE AS THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH
KEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO SE UT AND SW COIN
THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HRRR SOLUTION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND TRANSITORY RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM AZ THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT...
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN BENEATH CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MAY GET PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHEARS NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT CLEAR AS
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TYPICALLY DO NOT TRACK INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER THERE IS FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. "DRIER" DOES NOT MEAN DRY
AS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD STILL OCCUR TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE AND SW COLORADO. ONCE THE PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
DOWNSTREAM...THE MONSOON REASSERTS ITSELF AND EXPECT THE MOISTURE
STREAM FROM MEXICO TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND BY LATE MORNING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BRINGS
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 15Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NRN HALF AFTER 17Z WITH NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA
AND LOCAL CIGS BKN030CB. ISOLATED +TSRA/+SHRA IS EXPECTED WITH
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AND LOCALIZED G25-30KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 17Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AROUND
FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY FILLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING BREAKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SW VT. SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE
MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE AREAL
COVERAGE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...AND OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS AND PA.
LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE NEARBY APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS
MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...PWAT VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THESE
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN
EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE OF RATHER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW
FOR TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...AND WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.
SKIES TODAY LOOK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...BEFORE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON JUST
HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.
MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
THE MAIN SHOWER AREA WAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. EXPECTATIONS TODAY
ARE FOR THE CIGS TO REMAIN WITHIN MVFR/VFR BORDER THRESHOLDS AS
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE INCREASING WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS.
PER THE HRRR...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS WE AWAIT FOR THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THERE WAS SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH WATERSPOUTS
REPORTED OFF OF LAKE WORTH AND THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE
FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND 06Z GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING MID-MORNING ACROSS INLAND
MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE 12Z SOUNDING
ANALYSIS INDICATED A PWAT JUST SHY OF TWO INCHES AND INSTABILITY
IN GENERAL INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE ALSO POSSIBLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD START AS EARLY AS
17Z AND COULD BE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. THUS AT
17Z ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL
KAPF AROUND 18Z WITH ON-SET OF WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.
BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.
MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 50 20 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 91 79 / 50 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 76 92 75 / 50 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD START AS EARLY AS
17Z AND COULD BE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. THUS AT
17Z ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL
KAPF AROUND 18Z WITH ON-SET OF WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.
BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.
MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 40 20 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 91 79 / 40 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 76 92 75 / 40 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
920 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST TODAY WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST SO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WEST AND 1.8 INCHES EAST.
THE SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
ONLY SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS
UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
SEA BREEZE WORKS INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 4000 FT DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.
LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS SUPPORTS
ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10
KNOTS OR LESS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY EVENING. A 25
KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...LEADING
TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST TODAY WHILE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST SO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES WEST AND 1.8 INCHES EAST. THE
SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT ONLY
SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS
UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
SEA BREEZE WORKS INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS SUPPORTS
ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8
KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. A 25
KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE I328
TO I332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
THE FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS HOWEVER ARE
NOT AS EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL AS WHAT THEY ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW, IMPROVING MOISTURE, AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO LATE MAY GIVE RISE TO
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SO WILL BE SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT WILL BE LOCATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON LOCATION OF A WEST
TO EAST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 12Z THURSDAY AND WHERE THE
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. WILL THEREFORE FOCUS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THESE LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE UPPER
LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z TUESDAY, IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF RAINFALL FOR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS LATE WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST
HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPERING
PRECIPITATION OFF AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 90S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
FROM SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THIS
WILL LAST, ALTHOUGH LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVEMENT BY 15Z. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE
WITH TIME. WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 78 56 81 64 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 77 56 85 65 / 10 10 30 50
LBL 75 57 83 65 / 20 10 20 50
HYS 77 56 80 63 / 10 10 10 60
P28 74 60 78 65 / 80 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1119 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 45 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDED; 1) TO ADD HAZY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY DUE TO LEFT OVR ELEVATED SMOKE FROM WRN CAN
FIRES. 2) PRODUCTION OF HIGH RESOLUTION HRLY GRIDS WHICH
DISTINGUISHES CNVCTN TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME HTG OVR THE NW LATE THIS
AFTN...POTENTIAL SHWRS/TSTMS MOVG SW TO NE OVR THE SRN PTN OF THE
FA OVRNGT FROM THE MID LVL VORT MAX FROM THE N CNTRL APLCHNS. 3)
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE N AND W VERY LATE TNGT AND ACROSS THE FAR
NE...E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WED MORN TO MIDDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN BR S/WV TRACKING EWRD
MSLY JUST N OF THE FA. THE ONLY ENHANCED WORDING WITH ANY TSTMS
FROM LATE THIS AFTN INTO WED MORN IS HVY RNFL...GIVEN LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FCST SFC OR ML CAPE DUE TO WARM MID LVL TEMPS...BUT
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED CAPE
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT INTO WED MORN.
LASTLY...WE COMPLETELY RE-DID FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU TDY AND TNGT
BASED ON CURRENT 10-11 AM OBS...FCST HI TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN THAT
WE USED YSTDY TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS ERLY WED MORN.
ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SLIDE EAST TODAY W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
APCH THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT
AND A CAP. 7 TO 8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM AS SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING
FACTOR INITIALLY WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT
FORCING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
COOLER W/THE ONSHORE WIND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER
TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A
STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT
LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF
35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL
WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
711 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
707 AM UPDATE...HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE PUSHING OUT W/THE RIDGE MOVING E. REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS OK.
HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THE CWA WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL APCH THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND A CAP. 7 TO
8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AS
SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING FACTOR INITIALLY
WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER W/THE ONSHORE
WIND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER
TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A
STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT
LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF
35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL
WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1051 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...PW/S LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES IN THE 12Z JAN UA ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING WITH A CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 850 MB. SHOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH...IF ANY...CONVECTION WITH THIS SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT...BUT
HRRR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...
MAINLY BELOW 700 MB...WITH PW/S JUMPING TO AT LEAST 1.7 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CAP ERODING AWAY. HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS. HRRR IS
SHOWING THUNDERSTORM GUST POTENTIALS OF 40-45 KNOTS WITH THESE
STORMS AND WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST IS YIELDING A CHANCE CATEGORY.
WILL NOT UPDATE HWO AT PRESENT AS BELIEVE SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE
TOO SPARSE.
UPDATED GRIDS TO ADD SLIGHT POPS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP GRIDS APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK./26/7/
&&
.AVIATION...MAY ADD SOME VCTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
JAN...MEI AND HBG. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 9Z WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE MEI/HBG. /7/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE INCREASING PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING AFTERNOON HIGHS...MILD
NIGHTS...AND RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS
THAT INDEED DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY...AND RANGE IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 90S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S. ALSO OF NOTE...THESE ADVERTISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS HOVERING
AROUND 70F...COULD YIELD SOME AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND THE
100 DEGREE MARK. /19/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE THINKING IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM RECENT FORECASTS - TYPICAL
MID-JULY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE AS A STOUT MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS. RATHER HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AFTN/EVNG TSTMS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE. IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY MAY SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE GIVEN THAT HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (~1.9 IN) WILL
BEGIN TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE RIDGE CENTER AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS GREATER MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL TSTM
CHANCES AND HAVE INCREASED GUIDANCE POPS A BIT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LOOKING LESS REMARKABLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO WORK WITH AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS A
RESULT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HEAT STRESS TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH HEAT
INDICES LIKELY REACHING THE 100-105F RANGE EACH DAY...PERHAPS
PEAKING AT AROUND 105 OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST HEAT STRESS VALUES ARE NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. /EC/
AVIATION...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS
AS A RESULT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR PATCHY LOW STRATUS... PRIMARILY AT
KGTR...KMEI...AND KHBG...VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT ALL SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THESE VFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 7-12 KNOTS...AND WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS
TONIGHT. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 73 94 72 / 18 11 4 12
MERIDIAN 93 70 94 71 / 16 12 3 11
VICKSBURG 93 73 93 71 / 16 11 4 8
HATTIESBURG 93 73 94 72 / 18 3 5 8
NATCHEZ 92 74 91 73 / 18 4 8 8
GREENVILLE 91 74 92 72 / 12 14 10 9
GREENWOOD 91 73 92 72 / 16 14 6 9
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
921 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A COUPLE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. SATELLITE SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF SMOKE BEING PUSHED
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. NOT SEEING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
SO CHANCES WERE REMOVED FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR A STRONGER STORM WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS SET UP AND WHERE THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THERE WAS NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY OUTSIDE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS S INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALSO SETS
UP OVER SE MT. THE SREF SHOWED SURFACE CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER SE MT INTO BIG HORN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LESSER PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE ELSEWHERE. THERE WAS ALSO
A CHANCE OF 40 KT OF SHEAR OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 1 INCH
OVER THE SE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RAP LINED UP WELL WITH THE
SREF WITH IT/S INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. NOTED THE WRF SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY HAD HIGHER CAPES THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WITH KBHK
PEAKING OUT AT 1600 J/KG BY 00Z WED. SO...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER SOME MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGHER POPS
IN SE MT...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NNE FLOW WILL PROVIDE
UPSLOPE.
MIXING TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE SMOKE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
A COOLER PUSH OF AIR WILL DRIVE S THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF SMOKE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKED EVEN WEAKER OVER THE AREA ON WED IN A WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...THEN
RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. MIXING TO 700 MB WILL
MAKE FOR A MARGINALLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. KEPT SOME POPS OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING...THEN WENT MAINLY DRY AFTER 06Z DUE TO WANING
INSTABILITY. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WIDESPREAD 90+ F HIGHS ARE FORECAST. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE LAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES HAVE OFFERED UP SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
THAT WAVE...BUT IN GENERAL THERE/S AGREEMENT THAT DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AND THUS THE SEVERE STORM RISK
WILL BE LIMITED...ALBEIT NON-ZERO. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE GREATER
STORM HAZARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO INTENSIFY AND BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOTTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOO.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED INITIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THIS PATTERN IF THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES LIKE THE 00 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST. HOWEVER...BY NEXT TUESDAY THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
COULD YIELD SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE DID INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE TAFS
TO COVER THAT POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY
ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. FINALLY...SMOKE MAY RETURN AT THE SURFACE BY
EVENING THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 056/080 058/086 061/090 062/087 062/092 063/092
2/T 22/T 11/B 23/T 32/T 21/B 11/U
LVM 081 049/077 051/084 054/085 055/083 055/089 055/090
3/T 33/T 23/T 24/T 33/T 21/B 12/T
HDN 085 055/082 057/089 060/094 060/090 060/095 060/095
2/T 22/T 11/B 23/T 42/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 084 056/082 058/089 063/094 064/092 063/094 064/093
2/T 22/T 11/B 13/T 33/T 21/B 11/U
4BQ 083 055/080 057/087 061/093 062/091 062/093 062/091
3/T 22/T 12/T 13/T 32/T 11/B 11/U
BHK 079 053/079 055/085 060/090 062/090 061/090 061/089
3/T 22/T 11/U 12/T 33/T 22/T 11/B
SHR 079 052/074 053/083 056/087 056/086 056/089 056/089
2/T 33/T 33/T 23/T 32/T 11/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
06 UTC NAM AND LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AND MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SHOWS 600-800 J/KG
OF CAPE AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS. FOR NOW
TRIMMED BACK ON THE EASTERN EXTEND OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. SMOKE HAD ABATED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINED OVER THE WEST. A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE SMOKE OVER THE
WEST...BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SMOKE IS FROM THE
CANADIAN FIRES...IN ADDITION TO FIRES OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
ADJUSTED SMOKE DENSITY A BIT UP TO PATCHY SMOKE FROM AREAS OF
SMOKE AS OTHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST VISIBILITIES WERE GENERALLY 6
MILES OR BETTER. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOE 1500 OR BETTER CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY NOON TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE STATE.
VISIBILITIES WERE REDUCED TO AROUND 4 MILES DUE TO SMOKE AT
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ALSO AT
SIDNEY MONTANA. WILL STILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER MAINLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE THE MENTION OF SMOKE OUT
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE TAIL END OF A
JET STREAK ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.
TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. ANOTHER
JET STREAK MOVING OUT OF WYOMING MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. BEST CAPE
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH. BEST SHEAR IS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHEN BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST AT AROUND 40-45 KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE PROMINENT UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND MIGRATE
NORTH AS A PACIFIC FLOW BEGINS TO EMERGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RETROGRADING H500 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING IN A
MORE TYPICAL JULY WARMTH. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
70S...GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY 90 BY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC/TROPICAL FLOW REACHES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS TAF SITES. KDIK AND KHEI WERE REPORTING 3-5SM IN SMOKE THE
PAST FEW HOURS. PUT IN SCATTERED DECK AS WHEN SMOKE BECOMES THICKER
THE ASOS REPORTS THE SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR VSBYS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MENTIONED VCTS AT TAF SITES. LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY ADD TEMPO GROUP
WITH -TSRA AS TIME OF OCCURRENCE APPROACHES. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...THEN STALL
OUT ALONG...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST VESTIGES OF THE GREATLY WEAKENED UPPER TROUGH ARE SEEN AS
JUST A FEW HIGHLY ISOLATED /BUT BRIEFLY HVY/ RAIN SHOWERS
DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
STRATUS OR STRATO CU CLOUDS /AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/ WILL BE AROUND
EARLY TODAY AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP SWRLY
FLOW...SLIGHTLY DECREASING SFC DEWPOINTS/PWAT...AND A DEG C OR
TWO OF MID-LEVEL WARMING /LATE/ WILL COMBINE TO BRING US A VERY
WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW- SVRL DEG F ABOVE NORMAL...AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN MOST PLACES.
SOME CONCERN THAT A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER...AND TO THE EAST OF THE
SUSQ VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL CAP /NOTED BY
A RIBBON OF 700 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 6C/ COUPLED WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET COULD SPARK
ISOLATED-SCT COVERAGE OF PULSE SHRA/TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE LOWER GLAKES AND
BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER MULTI-CELL TSRA
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL. 8H TEMPS TEMPS NR 17C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...BEFORE STALLING OUT
NEAR...OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
MAIN FCST PROBLEM/CHALLENGE FOR THE UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL BE TO
TRY TO PIN DOWN /VIA SOME SEMBLANCE OF MODEL CONSENSUS/ THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE FEATURES/AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL FORM AND RIDE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...A GEFS/NAM/SREF BLEND POINT TWD THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF
PENN WEDNESDAY...WHERE PWAT WILL STAY AOA 2.0 INCHES. THE SHARP
GRADIENT TO MUCH LOWER PWAT /AOB 0.75 OF AN INCH/ WILL STAY NEAR
OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE PENN/NEW YORK BORDER WHERE CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOW WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF WED NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY TURN OUT TO BE SEVERAL DEG F OR
MORE BELOW CURRENT FCST VALUES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. CURRENT TEMP FCST
BUSTING ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY`S HIGH IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. WILL BE ADJUSTING THESE TEMPS WITH 03Z SREF AND 06Z
OP GUIDANCE WHERE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A FOCUS FOR PCPN ON DAY 3/THURS. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PERTURBATION/SFC WAVE
EMERGING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND PROGRESSING EWD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A NORTHERN BIAS WITH QPF AXES ASSOCD
WITH THESE MESO FEATURES...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED WPC LEAD WITH
CLUE FROM THE HI-RES MODELS IN SHIFTING MAX POPS SWD OF CONSENSUS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES CENTRAL PA THURSDAY AFTERNOON..IN WHICH
CASE IT WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WX AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RISK. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE GREATER VISIBILITY
AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN ITS PROJECTION THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STEADILY EVOLVE TOWARD
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER 48. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY WAY OF NRN PAC ENERGY FEEDING
INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
THAT RETROGRADES WWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING NWD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WRN CANADA...AND DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EAST EXTENDING SWD FROM
HUDSON BY VORTEX.
A 24-48HR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE AS
OF LATE...COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE D3 CONVECTIVE LOW. THE
PLACEMENT OF PIVOTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MSTR/PW AXIS
WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PCPN RISK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE NW
OR SW OF CENTRAL PA. THE OTHER FACTOR WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO
ENERGY EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE CA IN THE SHORT
RANGE. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE THAT THIS
ENERGY SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AND
THEN HELP TO CARVE OUT THE DEVELOPING ERN TROUGH DOWNSTREAM.
HOWEVER SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT LOCKED ONTO HOW SHEARED THE ENERGY WILL
BECOME...WHICH ALONG WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL FACTORS LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING OF NEXT PCPN
OPPORTUNITY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND MARGINAL VISBYS WILL IMPROVE THRU 15Z WITH VFR
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE INTO THE EVENING. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR TSTM THRU THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NW PA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MODIFIED SHRA/TSRA TIMING AT BFD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT WEST-TO-EAST ALONG
THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SW 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
955 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EDT UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE REDUCED EARLY ON BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS
WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.
AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD. ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES. THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO. POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MRNG FOG WILL DISSOLVE QUICKLY AFTER
12Z AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAND...WHERE THE LAYER IS
THICK ENOUGH THAT A LIFR CIG IS REPORTED. OTHERWISE SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING VSBYS. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS...BUT KAVL
WILL START OFF NLY AND FLIP AT MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. KAVL HAS A VCSH MENTION BUT OTHER SITES ARE DRY.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
COVERAGE...THOUGH MTN VALLEYS AND SITES IN THE NRN CATAWBA VALLEY
STILL LOOK TO SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD. ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES. THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO. POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MRNG FOG WILL DISSOLVE QUICKLY AFTER
12Z AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAND...WHERE THE LAYER IS
THICK ENOUGH THAT A LIFR CIG IS REPORTED. OTHERWISE SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING VSBYS. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS...BUT KAVL
WILL START OFF NLY AND FLIP AT MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. KAVL HAS A VCSH MENTION BUT OTHER SITES ARE DRY.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
COVERAGE...THOUGH MTN VALLEYS AND SITES IN THE NRN CATAWBA VALLEY
STILL LOOK TO SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
610 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS. AFT 00Z...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
CKV AND BNA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL
PROXIMITY. OTW...VCNTY SHOWERS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
OTW...LOOK FOR LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED UPSTREAM. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. HRRR TRANSLATES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD BEFORE
DYING OUT BY 12Z.
FOR TODAY...THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RAMPING UP A BIT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN PARTICULAR. WILL INCLUDE A 50 POP
ACROSS OUR NW...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU
GO.
TONIGHT...VORT CHANNEL WILL STILL LOOK BEST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR NW AND TAPER THAT DOWN TO 30 POPS
EAST AND SOUTH.
ON WED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE LOWER POPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THU AS WELL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE GREATEST DOMINANCE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY. THUS...THIS PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS RATHER
DRY AT THIS TIME. BUT...WILL STILL INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS AS WE MOVE
A BIT TOWARD CLIMO NUMBERS IN TERMS OF PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...HOT WEATHER TO RETURN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20-22C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 89 73 91 70 / 40 30 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 72 87 69 / 40 60 40 20
CROSSVILLE 85 69 85 66 / 30 30 40 20
COLUMBIA 90 73 92 70 / 30 30 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 89 73 91 71 / 20 20 30 20
WAVERLY 88 73 90 70 / 40 60 30 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1052 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SPREAD THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MAVERICK COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS...DEW POINTS
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
POPS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY WERE RAISED A CATEGORY AS RADAR TRENDS
ARE HOLDING STEADY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXPAND POPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FOR
PWAT VALUES AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PROVE TO BE ACCURATE.
AVIATION... /12 TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BROUGHT TSRA CAPABLE CELLS NOT FAR FROM
DRT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE AS VCSH DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
AND ISOLATED NATURE. LATER TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A PROB30 GROUP
AS INCREASING PWAT TRENDS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT THAT BENEFITS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW
CLOUD...THANKS TO A SOLID SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SITS
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND...AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE MID LEVEL ASCENT TODAY AND INTERACTION WITH BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
(CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. ALSO...A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALONG WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO GONZALES LINE. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA INTO
TONIGHT. THEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRYING IS SHOWN BY
MOST MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS BOTH DAYS FOR THIS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 76 93 75 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 75 92 74 92 / 20 0 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 92 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 91 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 93 73 93 / - 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 20 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 - 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 75 93 75 92 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 74 92 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING WIND PARALLEL CLOUD STREETS OVER THE
AREA...WITH A STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STIKES STREAMING
INTO JEFFERSON AND FAR EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES. STILL VERY HOT
AND HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MADE FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A
TAD FAR SE ZONES GIVEN CONVERGENCE BAND AND STREAMER SHOWERS
IMPACTING THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THINK 20 PERCENT AREAL
COVERAGE AS PER GOING FORECAST IS ON TARGET. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW PASSING SHRA BUT NOTHING THAT IS
IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR KLBX/LGLS FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT COMES OFF THE GULF.
CIGS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOR
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. KCLL HAD SOME BREIF IFR CIGS BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE
LIFTING. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE DAY.
LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF CIGS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM S/SE AND MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5-10KTS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROAD WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45
MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT.
39
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 77 94 75 93 / 20 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 78 94 76 92 / 20 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 81 90 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
POPS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY WERE RAISED A CATEGORY AS RADAR TRENDS
ARE HOLDING STEADY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXPAND POPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FOR
PWAT VALUES AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PROVE TO BE ACCURATE.
&&
.AVIATION... /12 TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BROUGHT TSRA CAPABLE CELLS NOT FAR FROM
DRT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE AS VCSH DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
AND ISOLATED NATURE. LATER TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A PROB30 GROUP
AS INCREASING PWAT TRENDS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT THAT BENEFITS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW
CLOUD...THANKS TO A SOLID SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SITS
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND...AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE MID LEVEL ASCENT TODAY AND INTERACTION WITH BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
(CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. ALSO...A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALONG WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO GONZALES LINE. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA INTO
TONIGHT. THEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRYING IS SHOWN BY
MOST MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS BOTH DAYS FOR THIS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 76 93 75 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 75 92 74 92 / 20 0 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 92 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 91 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 93 73 93 / - 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 20 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 - 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 75 93 75 92 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 74 92 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW PASSING SHRA BUT NOTHING THAT IS
IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR KLBX/LGLS FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT COMES OFF THE GULF.
CIGS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOR
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. KCLL HAD SOME BREIF IFR CIGS BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE
LIFTING. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE DAY.
LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF CIGS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM S/SE AND MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5-10KTS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROAD WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45
MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT.
39
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 77 94 75 93 / 20 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 78 94 76 92 / 20 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 81 90 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45
&&
.MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT.
39
$$
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 77 94 75 93 / 20 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 78 94 76 92 / 20 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 81 90 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1012 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO BURN OFF...ALTHOUGH TAKING A BIT LONGER
THAN USUAL. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE OUR DRIER OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE ARE BETWEEN
IMPULSES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. STILL NOT A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DRY...AS THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AIDED
BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UP STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 AND
MORE INTO WV/FAR SW VA INTO KY. A VERY WARM DAY SINCE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED WITH SW FLOW AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST LOOKS GOOD.
TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO KY AND MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE ACTIVE WX STAYING IN A REGION FROM
MISSOURI TO WRN PA. STILL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY WORK INTO THE MTNS OF WV OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT HIGHER POPS OVER
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO NC MTNS. MUGGY LOWS EXPECTED WITH MID TO UPPER
60S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 70S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CAUSING IT TO STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. REGARDLESS...
STILL SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH RAIN CHANCES
HIGHEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MODEST FOR THE MOST PART...BUT INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR TO TRIGGER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND EXPECT
MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN
CHANCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST FOR THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW FURTHER EAST CAUSING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK UP.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
JUST TO OUR SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR
NORTHWEST FOR ANY APPROACHING DISTURBANCES AS THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHIFT
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK OFF A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM LOW 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES FOR MID/LATE WEEK WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA FOR THE WEEKEND THEN EXPAND NORTHWEST INTO THE
ROCKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WHICH WILL INITIALLY TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THIS
WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WANES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. AS TROUGHING ALOFT INCREASES...EXPECT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGION PROVIDING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADDITION TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO IDENTIFY ANY GIVEN DAY WHERE WE COULD
COMPLETELY REMOVE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...THUS ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT DAILY CHC OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOTHING EXTREME...WILL FAVOR THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...THEN RETREAT TO SOMETHING NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOG AT ALL SITES BUT ROANOKE...AND VLIFR ATTM AT LWB/BCB. THIS FOG
WITH SOME LOW CIGS WILL LIFT/ERODE BY 13-14Z. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY
ISOLATED AND CONFINED WEST OF THE WV/VA BORDER. BETTER EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE FRONT TONIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TOWARD
BLF/LWB LATE...SO ATTM HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR LWB...AS THINK THE
TIMING IS IFFY.
OVERNIGHT AS WELL FOG SHOULD FORM AGAIN AT LWB/BCB AND PERHAPS
DAN...THOUGH MORE HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTERAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT
FOG BECOMING DENSE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WV/MD BORDER WEST TO OHIO BY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF
THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM THE I-80 SUMMIT DOWN THROUGH CHEYENNE AND PINE BLUFFS...BUT
THE DRIZZLE IS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
HAS WEAKENED A BIT HERE SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MID MORNING...AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS IN EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
SEE BREAKS. OTHERWISE...WE SEE SOME SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS MORNING
FOR THOSE AREAS. BY LATE MORNING...WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE WEST
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OUT ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES RECEIVED A HALF INCH OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND STORM MOTIONS ONLY AROUND 13 KNOTS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE GROUNDS IN SOME AREAS OF CARBON
AND SOUTH ALBANY COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...WE POSTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS WESTWARD...WITH LESS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW (MOST AREAS) WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE
STABILIZED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN ACTIVE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW IN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS. THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY
THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED OR EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON TRENDS TODAY AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
FOCUS TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GFS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWFA SHOWING PWATS OF .8 INCHES NEAR RAWLINS TO WELL
OVER AN INCH IN THE PANHANDLE. ALL THATS NEEDED IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF.
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
STARTING OFF THURSDAY...ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE BEING
KICKED OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NEVADA...MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW ITSELF TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
AS THIS HAPPENS WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. NEED TO BE WATCHING MONSOON MOISTURE THOUGH AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED IN THE 12Z TAFS. KEEPING IFR CEILING IN
HERE AT KCYS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AT KRWL AND KLAR. WHILE OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CEILINGS AROUNF 4-5K FEET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
A MOSTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE WET PATTERN
CONTINUES. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEAR TERM.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ109>116.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...JG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INCREASE...AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM NEAR
1 INCH IN THE MORNING UP TO 1.12 INCHES ABOUT 21Z. THE BEST UPLIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPEARS WILL BE OVER NW CO EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT CO ZONE 12 IN THE ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW SO LONGER DURATION SHOWERS AND
PROBLEMS FROM EXCESS RUNOFF ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE AS THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH
KEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO SE UT AND SW COIN
THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HRRR SOLUTION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND TRANSITORY RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM AZ THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT...
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN BENEATH CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MAY GET PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHEARS NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT CLEAR AS
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TYPICALLY DO NOT TRACK INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. HOWEVER THERE IS FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. "DRIER" DOES NOT MEAN DRY
AS A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD STILL OCCUR TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE AND SW COLORADO. ONCE THE PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
DOWNSTREAM...THE MONSOON REASSERTS ITSELF AND EXPECT THE MOISTURE
STREAM FROM MEXICO TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THOUGH
MOUNTAINS REMAIN FAVORED...A NUMBER OF AIRPORTS WILL EXPERIENCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. AIRPORTS WITH ILS BREAKPOINTS AT
OR ABOVE 4500 FEET MAY BE BRIEFLY IMPACTED. EXPECT A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SUSTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY
CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY NUMEROUS OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL THIS REGION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN POPS SLOWLY DECREASE. ENOUGH SUNSHINE HAS
OCCURRED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE RAPIDLY...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGHS
FOR TODAY BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE
80S ACROSS VALLEYS LOCATIONS...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE NEARBY APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS
MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...PWAT VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THESE
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN
EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE OF RATHER HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW
FOR TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...AND WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.
SKIES TODAY LOOK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...BEFORE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON JUST
HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.
MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH LATER TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE
TAF SITES WED MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY...AND LARGELY
DEPEND ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE KGFL AND
KPSF...WHERE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF BETWEEN 10Z-15Z/WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
TOWARD AND ESP AFTER 18Z/WED.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...IT APPEARS THAT AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD ONLY REMAIN ISOLATED. SO...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN
TAFS...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT 5-
10 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND
THEN INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WED MORNING AT 8-
12 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.
ALSO...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
CONVECTION WAS FAIRLY SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THROUGH 20Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE 12Z
TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING WERE ONLY 1.55 (AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY JULY) AND THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET WITH A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.
.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGING
WILL BRING MORE SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES PEAKING AROUND 102 IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. IT WILL BE HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY]
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT TLH AND VLD TERMINALS, PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 74 94 73 94 74 / 20 30 20 30 10
PANAMA CITY 77 89 76 90 76 / 10 30 10 30 10
DOTHAN 74 95 74 94 73 / 10 20 10 30 10
ALBANY 73 95 74 96 74 / 10 30 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 72 95 73 95 74 / 20 30 20 30 20
CROSS CITY 73 92 72 93 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
APALACHICOLA 77 90 74 90 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
FRANKLIN.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CAMP/LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...CAMP/LAMERS
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT. KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD SEE THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE SETTING UP AFTER 18Z WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 23Z TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER KAPF TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VCSH
WILL IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITE. THE CEILING AND
VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE CEILING AND VIS COULD
FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM AT KAPF
TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30
MINUTES. SO WILL KEEP THE CEILING AND VIS IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME FOR KAPF TAF SITE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
THERE WAS SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH WATERSPOUTS
REPORTED OFF OF LAKE WORTH AND THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE
FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE AND 06Z GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THESE TRENDS WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING MID-MORNING ACROSS INLAND
MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE 12Z SOUNDING
ANALYSIS INDICATED A PWAT JUST SHY OF TWO INCHES AND INSTABILITY
IN GENERAL INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD START AS EARLY AS
17Z AND COULD BE CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. THUS AT
17Z ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE JUST WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL
KAPF AROUND 18Z WITH ON-SET OF WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA...FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING AFTER SUNRISE
TO HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL MORNINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE...DRYING OUT EAST COAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO EVENING ACROSS
WEST/INTERIOR. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE FAR GREATER THREAT OF LIGHTNING.
BY TONIGHT...SUBTLE CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AS SWLY MOVING
TUTT/H5 LOPRES ENTERS BAHAMAS...ON ITS WAY TO CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY HINDER MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER AIR POURING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG EAST
COAST...BUT BEST COVERAGE /SCATTERED/ EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NAPLES AREA.
MAXIMA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY...WITH MINIMA ALONG EAST
COAST CONTINUING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGH MINIMA MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS USUALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. ERN CONUS LOPRES TROUGH MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO TURN FLOW
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ESTABLISHED
GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 18Z. LATEST HRRR SHOWS EAST COASTAL
SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE STARTED VCSH AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT 12Z. KEPT VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST FOR NOW...THINKING THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED INLAND AND
TOWARD KAPF WITH EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
ESE WIND 10-15 KT WILL SEAS BELOW 3 FT PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 79 / 60 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 80 / 40 20 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 91 79 / 50 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 76 92 75 / 60 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ON TRACK. THE HRRR SOLUTION
HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR...SO EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT SCATTERED DOWNPOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND AND POTENTIALLY ADVECTS BACK OVER COASTAL AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON. TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALONG I 95 CORRIDOR
WHERE SHOWERS AND SKY COVER HAVE HAD GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL ANTICIPATED MOST EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. THUS...EXPECT A LOW SEVERE RISK...MAINLY
A RESULT OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE BIGGEST HAZARD.
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION INLAND EARLY WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUILD OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...THEN BECOME CENTERED JUST
WEST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE COAST
WITH ITS AXIS EVENTUALLY EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE/MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL GENERALLY ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT CONSIDERABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE FOR NO CONVECTION AT ALL BY FRIDAY. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE...SO WILL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING UPWARDS OF 105-107 IN SOME
SPOTS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S APPEAR REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEST-EAST ORIENTATED RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE BECOMES REESTABLISHED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER NEAR OR EVEN
OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE FOR RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
DOES INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS AS IS
ALWAYS POSSIBLE THIS TIME WITH THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO MAYBE
EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE OF A FACTOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
CONTINUED WARMING INTO SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES INTO
NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC WITH INDICES JUST OVER 105 POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE SEABREEZE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING/COVERAGE...VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS FROM 17-21Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15
KT...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AT NIGHT WITH WEAK NOCTURNAL SURGING AND
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1203 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK...LEADING TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAP MODEL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. PWAT RANGING FROM 1.50 ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING LIFTED INDICES MINUS 6C AND SURFACE BASED CAPES 2500 TO
3000 J/KG.
THE SPC WRF AND HRRR BOTH SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY
SHOW ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND WEAKEN AS
UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
SEA BREEZE WORKS INLAND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...CONTINUING
TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR
REMNANT MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SCATTERED CONVECTION. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE VCNTY OF OGB AT 16Z...AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS
OR LESS UNTIL SUNSET. A 25 KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE I328
TO I332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
THE FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS HOWEVER ARE
NOT AS EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL AS WHAT THEY ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW, IMPROVING MOISTURE, AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO LATE MAY GIVE RISE TO
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SO WILL BE SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT WILL BE LOCATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON LOCATION OF A WEST
TO EAST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 12Z THURSDAY AND WHERE THE
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. WILL THEREFORE FOCUS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THESE LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE UPPER
LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z TUESDAY, IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF RAINFALL FOR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS LATE WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST
HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPERING
PRECIPITATION OFF AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 90S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SUSTAINED WINDS THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 50
GCK 77 56 81 64 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 77 56 85 65 / 10 10 30 50
LBL 78 57 83 65 / 20 10 20 50
HYS 77 56 80 63 / 10 10 10 60
P28 73 60 78 65 / 80 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1239 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WARM
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1225 PM UPDATE: OUTSIDE OF FCST HRLY TEMPS AND DWPTS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIG CHGS. NOON OBSVD
TEMPS SHOWED SEVERAL LCTNS OVR DOWNEAST ME ALREADY AT OR JUST ABV
FCST HI TEMPS IN THIS AREA...RESULTING IN US RAISING HI TEMPS
THERE 2 TO 3 DEG F AND RE-DOING FCST HRLY TEMPS WHERE WE SHOW A
LVLG OFF OF TEMPS AND THEN A GRADUAL DROP DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING
SEA BREEZE OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN A
LITTLE FASTER THEN THE PREV FCST...BUT THE RATE OF RISE SHOULD LVL
OFF SOME INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SLIDE EAST TODAY W/A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
APCH THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM12,WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT
AND A CAP. 7 TO 8C AT 700MBS AND -8C AT 500MB. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM AS SOME SB/MUCAPE IS THERE(500-800 JOULES). LACKING
FACTOR INITIALLY WILL BE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT
FORCING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DOWNEAST AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
COOLER W/THE ONSHORE WIND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATER
TONIGHT W/SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS. A
STABLE LAYER IS IN PLACE IN THE LLVLS W/ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THAT
LAYER. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2 INCHES W/A K INDEX OF
35 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 25 KTS AND AN INCREASING SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
STABLE LAYER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THERE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE PARAMETERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
HOLD, THEN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN ANT TSTMS. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 80 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING A SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS AFTER SOME MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTM/PTACHY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 10 TO 15 KT W/GUSTS TO 20 K`S. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL
WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
AFTERNOON CU HAS POPPED IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SFC
HIGH WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE SW
FLOW CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 - 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WED...KEEPING THE SW
FLOW IN PLACE. THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT JUST SOME CU TO DEVELOP. SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z WED - SUN...THE FRONT APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON SO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS OF VIS AND CEILINGS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED DRYING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO NRN LOWER MI SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY FLOW
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH UPPER MI. THIS HAS BROUGHT COOL AIR INTO
THE AREA WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S. VIS LOOP SHOWED AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF BU MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILLL BRING VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. EXPECT TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WAS INCLUDED.
WED...SUNSHINE WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 800 MB WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE PRIMARILY
TEMPS THRU FRI AND THEN POPS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
RIDING OVER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS/ASSOCIATED WARM FNT IN THE
UPR MIDWEST. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THRU THE LONGER TERM AS
THE UPR RDG BLDS OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR W
THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS NEXT WEEK...COOLER WX MAY RETURN THEN.
WED NGT/THU...DISTURBANCE RIDING THRU THE FASTER NRN BRANCH FLOW
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRAG A WEAK LO PRES TROF/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH ACROSS THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF LINGERING SFC HI PRES
RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THE BULK
OF THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
NW ONTARIO AND THERE WL BE ONLY MARGINAL MSTR INFLOW INTO THE UPR
LKS AHEAD OF THE TROF...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA. A
BIT STRONGER WSW FLOW AND HIER PWAT APRCHG AN INCH WL MAKE FOR A
MUCH WARMER NGT ON WED NGT. WITH H85 TEMPS ON THU FCST IN THE 13-14C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS ON THU WL REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S AWAY FM LK
MODERATION.
THU NGT/FRI...UNDER REBOUNDING UPR HGTS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV
PASSING INTO QUEBEC AND N OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...SFC HI
PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LKS WL DOMINATE UPR MI WX AND BRING DRY
CONDITIONS. WSW FLOW ARND THE SFC HI TO THE S AND H85 TEMPS RISING
TO ABOUT 15-17C BY 00Z SAT SUPPORT A SLOW WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS
ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S AT SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FM MAINLY LK
MI COOLING...EVEN IF THERE IS AN INCRS IN HI CLD AS SOME MODELS HINT
TO THE N OF A WARM FNT DRIFTING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST.
WEEKEND...BLDG UPR RDG CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY W INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHRTWV RIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FNT SITUATED IN THE UPR MIDWEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV/LOCATION OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FNT AND AXIS OF PCPN. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z/12Z
ECMWF SHOWED A FARTHER S LOCATION OF THE FNT/PCPN WHILE THE 00Z
CNDN/12Z GFS MODELS FCST A FARTHER N POSITION AND RETURN OF
SHOWERS/TS AS EARLY AS LATE FRI NGT. THESE FARTHER N MODELS ALSO
INDICATE H85 TEMPS WL BE AT LEAST NEAR 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES ON LATE PERIOD/WARM SEASON FCST DETAILS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR RDG AXIS AMPLIFIES IN THE PLAINS...
TREND FOR THE UPR FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW MAY ALLOW CNDN HI
PRES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPR LKS AND PUSH COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR TO
THE S. BUT THERE ARE SGNFT DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THESE
EVENTS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY BRING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TS ON MON/TUE BEFORE THE STRONGER COLD FROPA...SO WL HOLD
ON TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTEROON AT SAW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTN AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
AS HI PRES APPROACHES THE LAKE THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
UNDER 20 KTS. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER
STABILITY TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMER DOMINATING THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED DRYING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO NRN LOWER MI SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY FLOW
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH UPPER MI. THIS HAS BROUGHT COOL AIR INTO
THE AREA WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S. VIS LOOP SHOWED AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF BU MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EAST.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILLL BRING VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. EXPECT TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WAS INCLUDED.
WED...SUNSHINE WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 800 MB WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
DURING THE LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA. TROF ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
CNTRL CANADA (FAIRLY NOTABLE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR JULY)
WILL EXTEND WEAKLY INTO THE NCNTRL CONUS/GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN...IT WILL WEAKEN/LIFT N DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED 500MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS
WHICH WILL THEN RETROGRADE QUICKLY AND EVOLVE INTO A RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NW TERRITORIES BY MON. THIS WILL FORCE
INCREASED TROFFING INTO SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR UPPER MI...THESE LARGE SCALE CHANGES WILL MEAN
BLO NORMAL TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TREND GRADUALLY UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COULD BE QUITE COOL (FOR JULY STANDARDS) FOR A TIME NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON LONGITUDE OF WRN RIDGE AXIS AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE
ACTUALLY BECOMES. AS FOR PCPN...THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY WITH
ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING BY TO THE N OF HERE. AS THE FLOW TURNS
WSW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE HIGH/RIDGE
RETROGRADING FROM THE SE CONUS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN LOOKS
UNLIKELY ATTM.
ON WED/THU...A FAIRLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW
AND ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AND NW MN WED. SCT CONVECTION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WITHIN NARROW BAND OF INSTABIILTY...BUT WITH FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF
HERE WED...PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT E WED NIGHT/THU...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN APPROACHING FRONT WASHING OUT WITH TIME.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PCPN WED NIGHT/THU. IF ANYTHING...ISLE ROYALE MIGHT GET CLIPPED
BY AN ISOLD SHRA.
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON FRI...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF DRY
WEATHER. THE GFS AND GEM DO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE
WEAKENING OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THRU THE BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS...NOT EXPECTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT TO
PROVIDE A RISK OF PCPN HERE ON FRI.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE HIGH/RIDGE
RETROGRADING FROM THE SE CONUS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND. PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TSTM CLUSTERS RUNNING ALONG THE EDGE OF MID LEVEL CAP AND
EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE
WAVES AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY INSTABILITY BUILDS TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES...FCST WILL SHOW MOSTLY LOWER RANGE CHC POPS. 00Z ECMWF
TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MORE
SUPPRESSED...RESULTING IN WHAT WOULD PROBABLY BE A DRY WEEKEND HERE.
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN THIS IDEA AND IF OTHER
MODELS TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BEFORE DOWNPLAYING WEEKEND PCPN
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTEROON AT SAW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTN AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
N-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTN EXCEPT WSW WINDS MAY KICK UP TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS. THE HIGH
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY BLO 15 KTS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF CROSSING NRN
ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. COUPLE OF AREAS OF CONGESTED CU DEVELOPING...ONE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND ANOTHER IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HAVE AGAIN
BACKED OFF ON THE IGNITION TIME A LITTLE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS
TONIGHT AND LIMITED THE THUNDER POTENTIAL AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID KEEP SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
CENTRAL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
06 UTC NAM AND LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AND MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SHOWS 600-800 J/KG
OF CAPE AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS. FOR NOW
TRIMMED BACK ON THE EASTERN EXTEND OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. SMOKE HAD ABATED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINED OVER THE WEST. A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE SMOKE OVER THE
WEST...BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SMOKE IS FROM THE
CANADIAN FIRES...IN ADDITION TO FIRES OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
ADJUSTED SMOKE DENSITY A BIT UP TO PATCHY SMOKE FROM AREAS OF
SMOKE AS OTHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST VISIBILITIES WERE GENERALLY 6
MILES OR BETTER. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOE 1500 OR BETTER CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY NOON TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE STATE.
VISIBILITIES WERE REDUCED TO AROUND 4 MILES DUE TO SMOKE AT
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ALSO AT
SIDNEY MONTANA. WILL STILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER MAINLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE THE MENTION OF SMOKE OUT
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE TAIL END OF A
JET STREAK ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.
TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. ANOTHER
JET STREAK MOVING OUT OF WYOMING MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. BEST CAPE
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH. BEST SHEAR IS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHEN BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST AT AROUND 40-45 KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
THE PROMINENT UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND MIGRATE
NORTH AS A PACIFIC FLOW BEGINS TO EMERGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RETROGRADING H500 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING IN A
MORE TYPICAL JULY WARMTH. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
70S...GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY 90 BY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC/TROPICAL FLOW REACHES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
IT APPEARS THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN AND NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES IN
MORE ALOFT TODAY THAN THE PAST FEW...THUS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER SMOKE REMAINS AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO KISN AND KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND TAF
SITES THE THREAT OF THUNDER DIMINISHES. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION 06-12Z BEFORE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.
BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.
WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.
BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.
HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS WERE REDUCED AGAIN EARLY IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
NAM AND ADJMAV.
AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD. ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES. THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO. POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN AREAS
TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. PREFERRED
GUIDANCE DOE NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT...BUT DOE AT
NEIGHBORING SITES TO THE S AND N. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS FAVOR A LOW VFR CLOUD
DECK.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT AT KAVL
GUIDANCE VEERS WINDS NW TONIGHT AND LEAVES THEM THERE. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT IS VFR AT
FOOTHILLS SITES...THROUGH SOME SITES NEAR KHKY ARE MVFR. LOW VFR
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG...THROUGH
IF KAVL CAN GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A CIG RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAWN.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
550 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
NAM EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES FURTHER
SOUTH AND ALSO WENT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SENT. IN THE PROCESS
OF UPDATING THE ZONE FORECASTS...GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP THROUGH THIS REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING WEST TO EAST WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO
INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BETWEEN 3 AND
5 INCHES...LOCALLY MORE.
ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH MS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...BUT THINK THESE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OVER MISSOURI. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE NEW FOCUS FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THESE AREAS ARE PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO EXCEED 2.25
INCHES. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE REFOCUSING FURTHER
NORTH ALONG A RETREATING SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH
HPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ALIGN WELL WITH THE HPC MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND MLCAPES EXCEED 1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
AREAWIDE AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
EAST BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERALL...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
OCCURS AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SPREAD BACK OVER THESE AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO CREEP
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 100-105 WHICH WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALONG
ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO
SET UP AGAIN WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ALSO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TODAY.
HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VCTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
JBR...MEM AND MKL. JBR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF LONGER DURATION
TSRA PERHAPS ALSO REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 4SM. WINDS HAVE
ALSO INCREASED ABOVE 10 KTS AREA-WIDE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO SIMILAR
VALUES.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
532 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
NAM EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES FURTHER
SOUTH AND ALSO WENT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SENT. IN THE PROCESS
OF UPDATING THE ZONE FORECASTS...GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP THROUGH THIS REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING WEST TO EAST WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OVER MISSOURI. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE NEW FOCUS FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THESE AREAS ARE PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO EXCEED 2.25
INCHES. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE REFOCUSING FURTHER
NORTH ALONG A RETREATING SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH
HPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ALIGN WELL WITH THE HPC MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND MLCAPES EXCEED 1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
AREAWIDE AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
EAST BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERALL...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
OCCURS AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SPREAD BACK OVER THESE AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO CREEP
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 100-105 WHICH WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN ALONG
ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO
SET UP AGAIN WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ALSO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TODAY.
HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VCTS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
JBR...MEM AND MKL. JBR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF LONGER DURATION
TSRA PERHAPS ALSO REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 4SM. WINDS HAVE
ALSO INCREASED ABOVE 10 KTS AREA-WIDE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TONIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO SIMILAR
VALUES.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
119 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCT -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST
THEN REACHING CKV THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
EASTWARD TOWARDS BNA/CSV THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR CONFIRMS WITH
ACTIVITY NOW FORMING IN WEST TN. PREVIOUS TAFS GENERALLY HAD THIS
REASONING/TIMING AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. VFR CIGS/VIS
GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA/-TSRA. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS...AND TWEAK HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. THIS RESULTED IN
KEEPING MAINLY ISO SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS MID STATE THRU
MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON HRS...EXPECT NW WHERE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS. AFT 00Z...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
CKV AND BNA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL
PROXIMITY. OTW...VCNTY SHOWERS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
OTW...LOOK FOR LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED UPSTREAM. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. HRRR TRANSLATES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD BEFORE
DYING OUT BY 12Z.
FOR TODAY...THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RAMPING UP A BIT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN PARTICULAR. WILL INCLUDE A 50 POP
ACROSS OUR NW...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU
GO.
TONIGHT...VORT CHANNEL WILL STILL LOOK BEST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR NW AND TAPER THAT DOWN TO 30 POPS
EAST AND SOUTH.
ON WED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE LOWER POPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THU AS WELL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE GREATEST DOMINANCE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY. THUS...THIS PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS RATHER
DRY AT THIS TIME. BUT...WILL STILL INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS AS WE MOVE
A BIT TOWARD CLIMO NUMBERS IN TERMS OF PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...HOT WEATHER TO RETURN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20-22C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 91 70 89 / 30 40 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 72 87 69 87 / 60 40 20 20
CROSSVILLE 69 85 66 85 / 30 40 20 20
COLUMBIA 73 92 70 91 / 30 30 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 73 91 71 91 / 20 30 20 20
WAVERLY 73 90 70 87 / 60 30 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS...AND TWEAK HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. THIS RESULTED IN
KEEPING MAINLY ISO SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS MID STATE THRU
MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON HRS...EXPECT NW WHERE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS. AFT 00Z...WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
CKV AND BNA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL
PROXIMITY. OTW...VCNTY SHOWERS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
OTW...LOOK FOR LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOCATED UPSTREAM. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. HRRR TRANSLATES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD BEFORE
DYING OUT BY 12Z.
FOR TODAY...THE MID STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RAMPING UP A BIT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN PARTICULAR. WILL INCLUDE A 50 POP
ACROSS OUR NW...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU
GO.
TONIGHT...VORT CHANNEL WILL STILL LOOK BEST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR NW AND TAPER THAT DOWN TO 30 POPS
EAST AND SOUTH.
ON WED...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE LOWER POPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THU AS WELL.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH THE GREATEST DOMINANCE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND FRONTOGENESIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY. THUS...THIS PARTICULAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS RATHER
DRY AT THIS TIME. BUT...WILL STILL INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS AS WE MOVE
A BIT TOWARD CLIMO NUMBERS IN TERMS OF PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...HOT WEATHER TO RETURN. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20-22C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 89 73 91 70 / 20 30 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 72 87 69 / 60 60 40 20
CROSSVILLE 85 69 85 66 / 20 30 40 20
COLUMBIA 90 73 92 70 / 20 30 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 89 73 91 71 / 20 20 30 20
WAVERLY 88 73 90 70 / 60 60 30 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
501 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.EVENING UPDATE...
WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS NORTH OF VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTY
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO WANT TO DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS
THE CWA BUT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT AGREE.
CONTINUE TO CLOUD TOPS BELOW -75 DEGREES AS OF THE 22Z AND PLENTY
OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE UPDRAFTS OF THESE CELLS TO ANTICIPATE
THEIR LONGEVITY ENOUGH TO ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES FOR
TONIGHT AND INCREASED POPS A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD. DO THINK THE
DOWNTREND WILL BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WE SHOULD LOSE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT. ALSO...700 MB
MOISTURE DECREASES FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SO ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS WELL.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TOO WARM OUT WEST AS
WELL SO REPOPULATED OBS AND BLENDED INTO RAP TRENDS AS THESE HAD
THE CLOSEST HANDLE ON WHATS GOING ON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO HAS
WEAKENED WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. LOOKING
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS...SOME CLEARING IS UNDERWAY. RADAR DATA IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO DESTABILIZE
THE LOWER LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77
CORRIDOR. THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT GIVEN A
MOIST AXIS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL NOT MENTION A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
BEYOND 7 PM. ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN VAL VERDE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES...WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE/LL ALSO
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP. THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RETURN FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
INTO OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
OUR REGION THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WE/LL CALL
FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 92 75 93 73 / 10 - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 92 75 92 73 / 10 - - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 74 91 73 / 10 - - 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 73 91 71 / 20 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 94 76 94 75 / 30 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 75 91 72 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 73 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 75 91 72 / 10 - - 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 92 75 91 74 / 10 - 0 - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 75 92 73 / 10 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 75 91 74 / 10 - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS A
SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT HAS JUST
MADE ITS WAY INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NEAR WHATS LEFT OF A COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE MAIN THREAT THIS
CONVECTION POSES TO NORTH TEXAS IS HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE THAT BOUNDARY WILL END UP AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
IT. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TONIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL
HELP FIRE UP MORE CONVECTION. EXPANDED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST...AND KEPT POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM SHERMAN TO DENTON TO THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVERNIGHT IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD THE
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES. THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE AN AREA TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IF IT
MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A
FEW DEGREES DUE TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. THERE
IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIMING FOR THE
WATCH WILL REMAIN THE SAME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES...MOSTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20.
BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
78.JG
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
/18Z TAFS/
MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL CONCERN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONSET OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT NW OF THE AREA AND UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR
WICHITA FALLS WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE
WEST HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
WELL WEST OF THE AIRPORTS.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 HIGH RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THINGS THE BEST
SO FAR...BUT NOT PERFECTLY BY ANY MEANS. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALOFT ARE NOT GIVING A STRONG INDICATION
HOW...IF ANY COLD POOL INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND BE ABLE TO SHIFT
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HELD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
TAF TRENDS OUTSIDE OF DELAYING VCTS TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDING UP THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRYING TO PIN DOWN BEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION WAS DIFFICULT AND
WILL JUST HAVE TO PLAY THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 88 73 93 74 / 50 30 10 5 0
WACO, TX 74 92 73 93 74 / 10 5 0 5 0
PARIS, TX 73 88 71 91 70 / 40 20 10 5 0
DENTON, TX 72 84 72 92 71 / 70 50 10 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 75 87 72 92 71 / 50 30 10 5 0
DALLAS, TX 73 88 74 94 75 / 40 20 10 5 0
TERRELL, TX 76 89 73 91 73 / 30 10 5 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 76 91 75 92 73 / 10 5 0 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 73 91 73 92 71 / 10 5 0 5 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 85 71 91 69 / 80 50 10 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>093-
100>103-115>118-129-131.
&&
$$
/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
105 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL CONCERN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONSET OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT NW OF THE AREA AND UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR
WICHITA FALLS WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE
WEST HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
WELL WEST OF THE AIRPORTS.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 HIGH RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THINGS THE BEST
SO FAR...BUT NOT PERFECTLY BY ANY MEANS. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALOFT ARE NOT GIVING A STRONG INDICATION
HOW...IF ANY COLD POOL INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND BE ABLE TO SHIFT
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HELD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
TAF TRENDS OUTSIDE OF DELAYING VCTS TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDING UP THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRYING TO PIN DOWN BEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION WAS DIFFICULT AND
WILL JUST HAVE TO PLAY THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED...DUE TO ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE NORMAL SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
JG.78
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELDS THAT RESIDES ALONG A LINE FROM THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS...THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MID LEVEL WEAKNESS...AND AS OF NOW WAS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF
MIDLAND TO NEAR VERNON AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO. THE FRONT
WAS EFFECTIVELY STATIONARY BUT IT DID MAKE SOME SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS LAST NIGHT AS A RESULT OF RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS FROM
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
ALSO OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS WAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AT 250MB THAT WAS SUPERIMPOSED ABOVE THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS
AND COLD FRONT. CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A HIGH ALTITUDE RIDGE
IS AN INTERESTING OCCURRENCE FOR OUR REGION...AS IT IS USUALLY
SOMETHING THAT OCCURS IN THE TROPICS. HAVING THIS UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA MEANS THAT THE TROPOPAUSE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH OVER THE
REGION...WHICH ALLOWS FOR VERY DEEP AND TALL CONVECTION. THE
CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
HAD CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -85C. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION
THAT IS CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH MORE
VERTICAL SPACE FOR HYDROMETEORS TO DEVELOP IN A THUNDERSTORM
WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND LOWISH HUMIDITY SEEN ON THE REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS LAST NIGHT.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHERE THIS DEEP CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND QPF AXIS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED IN THE SHORT-TERM HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY...BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL BECOME
A FOCUS FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG. IN
ADDITION TO THE FRONT...A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST
WITH DYNAMIC LIFT INCREASING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF RAIN WHERE POPS OF 60-80 PERCENT ARE NOW FORECAST. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE FRONT...WE ARE ALSO HIGHLIGHTING A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS WEST TEXAS
SHOULD MAKE SLOW AND STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LIKELY IMPACTING THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER
MIDDAY...EXPECT THE COMPLEX TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AND
POSSIBLY DISSIPATE...BUT IT SHOULD SEND OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO HELP KICK OFF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. POPS ARE NEAR 20-30
PERCENT SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO DFW TO SHERMAN LINE...WITH
THE LIKELY POPS RESERVED FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST LOW TO MID 80S IN
THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOL...WITH
LOWER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
BELIEVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL COME
TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO COMANCHE LINE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES ITS MAXIMUM. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A TRAINING BAND OF SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH MULTI-INCH
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 80
PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST...RAPIDLY DECREASING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO RETREATS
NORTH DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS PRETTY SIMPLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST DURING THE MID-LATE
WEEK PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A SLOW CLIMB. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT IS LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST AND KEEPING THEM MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARD
OFF DFW AND WACO/S FIRST 100 DEGREE READING THROUGH THIS 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IT IS CERTAINLY GOING TO BE HOT AND
DRY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 74 90 75 93 / 30 50 30 5 5
WACO, TX 91 76 93 75 93 / 20 10 5 0 5
PARIS, TX 87 75 89 72 91 / 20 40 20 5 5
DENTON, TX 85 71 87 73 92 / 40 70 40 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 87 74 90 74 92 / 30 50 30 5 5
DALLAS, TX 90 76 91 75 93 / 30 40 20 5 5
TERRELL, TX 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 76 92 74 92 / 20 10 5 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 90 76 92 74 92 / 20 10 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 84 70 90 72 92 / 60 80 40 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115-116-129.
&&
$$
05/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...RE-EMERGENCE OF AN EARLY MORNING/DAWN
LLJ OUT WEST MAY (RE)INTRODUCE SHORT LIVED MVFR DECKS OVER MORE
WESTERN HUBS EARLY WED AM. TODAY...A THICKENED CUMULUS FIELD WITH
A SEA BREEZE LIFTING OFF THE COAST AS INLAND TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE
90F...OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS TOO RANDOM TO PLACE WITHIN 18Z
TAFS. A DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD AID IN
JUST KEEPING A FEW CU DECK AROUND TOMORROW...SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING WIND PARALLEL CLOUD STREETS OVER THE AREA...
WITH A STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES STREAMING
INTO JEFFERSON AND FAR EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES. STILL VERY HOT
AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MADE FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A
TAD FAR SE ZONES GIVEN CONVERGENCE BAND AND STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTING
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THINK 20 PERCENT AREAL COVERAGE AS PER GOING
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. 46
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEW POINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45
&&
MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT. 39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 94 75 93 74 / 0 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 94 76 92 76 / 0 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 90 81 90 81 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CONVECTION OVER MEXICO
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. CURRENTTHINKING
IS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KDRT WITH ONLY
RAIN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WILL INCLUDE VCSH TO COVER THE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF I-35. DO NOT THINK ANY TERMINALS WILL
BE IMPACTED AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL SEE S/SE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREAS OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 03Z- 06Z AT THE I-35 SITES. SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AGAIN BY 16Z-19Z WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS AFTER 16Z WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SPREAD THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MAVERICK COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS...DEW POINTS
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
UPDATE...
POPS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY WERE RAISED A CATEGORY AS RADAR TRENDS
ARE HOLDING STEADY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXPAND POPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FOR
PWAT VALUES AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS PROVE TO BE ACCURATE.
AVIATION... /12 TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BROUGHT TSRA CAPABLE CELLS NOT FAR FROM
DRT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE AS VCSH DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
AND ISOLATED NATURE. LATER TODAY...WILL ALLOW FOR A PROB30 GROUP
AS INCREASING PWAT TRENDS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT THAT BENEFITS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW
CLOUD...THANKS TO A SOLID SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SITS
BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND...AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE MID LEVEL ASCENT TODAY AND INTERACTION WITH BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
(CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. ALSO...A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALONG WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO GONZALES LINE. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA INTO
TONIGHT. THEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRYING IS SHOWN BY
MOST MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS BOTH DAYS FOR THIS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 76 93 75 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 75 92 74 92 / 20 - 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 92 / 10 - 0 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 91 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 93 73 93 / - 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 92 74 91 / 20 - 0 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 92 75 91 / 20 - 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 75 93 75 92 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 74 92 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THIS AFTERNOONS SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH LIS AROUND
MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5. SFC BASED CAPES ARE RESPECTIVE AT 1000 TO 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED US IN GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN ANY CASE...ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINING WEST OF US. BUT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WORK INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THIS EVENING
THEN GFS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL HELP
STALL A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND
BORDER WEST TO OHIO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MODEST FOR
THE MOST PART...BUT INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
TRIGGER A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. SPC DAY TWO CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PLACED THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST
WITH MARGINAL ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WAVERING SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL TRY TO MAKE INROADS
LATE WEDNESDAY...RETREATING THURSDAY...ONLY TO RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...BUT DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING ARE NOT THAT
CLEAR-CUT...ESP WHEN DEALING WITH A WAVERING FRONT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE TRACK FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER PER FASTER WESTERLIES ALOFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.
INCREASING INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER WIND ENVELOPE WILL ALSO
SUPPORT PULSE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING THURSDAY.
FORECAST FOR THE AREA WILL REFLECT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...AND TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE
SOUTH UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS PER INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD AID
IN ADIABATIC WARMING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH 85H TEMPS
APPROACHING +20 DEG C...SURFACE READING SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE L-M 90S PENDING SUNSHINE. WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL...PER THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD TEXAS/OKLAHOMA FOR THE WEEKEND THEN
EXPAND NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR NEXT WEEK...JULY 13-17. SHORT
WAVE ENERGY PASSING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CARVE OUT FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MODELS
HINTING THIS FEATURE WILL CUTOFF OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TOO OR DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION PROMOTING DAILY THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PATH OF DEEP
CONVECTION LACKING. AS SUCH LONG TERM FORECAST REFLECTS A SHOTGUN
STANCE...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR GREATEST POPS/THUNDER COINCIDENT WITH PEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOTHING EXTREME...WILL FAVOR THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...THEN RETREAT TO SOMETHING NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CU AND
STRATOCU INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN KY AND
NRN/WRN WV ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT
AND EALRY WED...THE RISK FOR RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE...ESP AT BLF AND LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WV/MD BORDER WEST TO OHIO BY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF
THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE 07.17Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 10 KNOTS OR
GREATER CREATING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND IT ALSO
DOES NOT PRODUCE SATURATION AT THE SURFACE KEEPING A 3C TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREAD. THESE SIGNALS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG TO
FORM AND THE AVIATION FORECASTER ALSO IS NOT ENTHUSED ABOUT
FOG...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE NOW IN
CONSENSUS AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE RAIN ALSO STAYING TO THE SOUTH. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD MOVED TO A DRY SOLUTION AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REMAIN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SPREAD ON THE
TIMING WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 07.12Z ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BRINGING IT ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE 07.12Z GFS AND GEM LOOK TO BE MUCH
WEAKER WITH IT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN...DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING
WITH THE GFS BLOWING IT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF JUST STARTS TO GET IT TO THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HOLDS IT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. WITH THESE
INCONSISTENCIES...HELD THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT OR LOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS
SIGNAL THAT THE REMAINS OF THE CURRENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015
BROKEN CUMULUS OVER THE AIRFIELDS TODAY...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
WE NEAR SUNDOWN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...SUBSIDENCE AND
LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. COOL AIRMASS AS WELL...SO THIS SUGGESTS
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR VALLEY FOG. WE DID HAVE RECENT
RAINFALL TO HELP MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT GOOD DRYING
TODAY WORKING TO OFFSET THAT TO A DEGREE. PER PREVIOUS FORECASTER
THINKING...FEEL IT IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE THAT VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE BCFG THAT WAS INTRODUCED FOR KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MW