Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
158 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL ELEVATE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE CLOUDS
ARE MOSTLY LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND PUSHED
INTO COCHISE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV SEEMINGLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES
AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. NORMALLY WHEN THESE
FEATURES DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THE CONVECTION TENDS TO DEVELOP ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT IS THE CASE CURRENTLY WITH
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHWEST OF
TUCSON THROUGH PARTS OF THE METRO AND INTO THE CATALINA`S. THESE
STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER PARTS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AS WELL. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY SEEN OVER COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.
THE 17Z RUN OF THE HRRR WANTS TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS WE
HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...AND THIS WOULD GIVE CREDANCE TO THE NOTION
THAT THE MCV TENDS TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY NEAR THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR
(EVEN THE 16Z RUN) WERE SHOWING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...GIVEN THAT TODAY IS THE FOURTH...WITH
PLENTY OF EVENING FESTIVITIES SCHEDULED...THINK THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WOULD BE TO KEEP THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. THEN...IF SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE 17Z RUN OF
THE HRRR WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS CORRECT...THE EVENING SHIFT
CAN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LOWER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING EVENING HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS.
MODELS SUGGEST SUNDAY WITH BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE MCV HAVING
MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME. IF WE SEE MORE SUN
TOMORROW...THEN WE SHOULD DEFINITELY HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY.
BY MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR
WINDS...WHICH WILL PUSH MOISTURE EASTWARD...THUS LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF BRIEF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT REDUCED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. GENERALLY
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
1012 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. ..WHILE THE
EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE.
&&
.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
GETTING AN EARLY START NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS CONVECTION
BEGAN DEVELOPING JUST AFTER 9 AM. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW IN THE MORNING
RAOB BELOW ABOUT 10 KM SO WE ARE SEEING SOME SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AGAIN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE STORM MOTION PICK UP A LITTLE
WITH TIME TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRECIP CHANCES WERE UPDATED TO ADD TIME RESOLUTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT AREAS WEST OF I-17/US 89 MAY BE MOSTLY
QUIET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AGAIN
FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU/MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST SAT JUL 4/...AREA RADARS SHOW LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF COCONINO AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND AS WELL. FRIDAY NIGHTS PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DELAY THE START OF CONVECTION TODAY UNTIL
LATE MORNING IN THE WHITE MTNS AND EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.
SEEING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AZ ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY TODAY AND THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER MOVES TO
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THUS MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SHOWER AND TSTORM CHANCES GOING...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WORKING INTO WESTERN AZ TUESDAY NIGHT
/WEDNESDAY. AREAS WEST OF A PAGE TO PAYSON LINE SHOULD BE DRY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD
CURRENT PROGS VERIFY. AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE STILL HANG ON TO SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE...THOUGH NOT AS RICH AS WHAT WE HAVE OVERHEAD THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF A KCMR TO
KSJN LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER 21-23Z...STORMS WILL
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KFLG-KPAN LINE. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HRS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AZ.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE AND MOIST MONSOON PATTERN WILL BRING
DAYTIME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT TODAY
AND SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AT NIGHT...WITH DEBRIS CLOUD
AND SCATTERED STRATIFORM SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE...WITH FALLING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...AT/DL
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
929 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL
ELEVATE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOSTLY LEFT
OVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND PUSHED INTO COCHISE COUNTY. STILL
SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY...GENERALLY WEST OF SELLS. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
MOST RECENT HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THE EVENTS OF EARLIER THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM DEPICTS
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SO...BASED ON THIS...THINK THE POP FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
GRAHAM/COCHISE/GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. FOR THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT
AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COMBINATION
OF BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORABLE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR FOR AN UPSWING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL READINGS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
248 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL
ELEVATE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW MOVING NORTHWARD FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER SONORA MEXICO HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SOLUTION APPEARED TO BE DEPICTING THE LOCATION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT RATHER WELL. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS DEEP AND MOIST
CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH AND WESTWARD TODAY. IN GENERAL...THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORABLE TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR FOR AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO.
THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE WEST
COAST OF CALIFONIA AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL READINGS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
GRAHAM/COCHISE/GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. FOR THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT
AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COMBINATION
OF BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
940 PM MST FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. BY NEXT WEEK...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION AND PUSH MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN...LATE EVENING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PHOENIX METRO DESPITE PALTRY LOOKING INSTABILITY PER PSR
SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS. SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR HAD BEEN
DEPICTING OUTFLOW FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO PHOENIX
METRO THIS EVENING BUT WITHOUT THE STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT WE ARE
SEEING. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...PWAT VALUES
ARE STILL A GOOD 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA...LESS SO FURTHER
WEST...AND THUS THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NOTABLE RAINFALL. IN
FACT...THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST
OVER WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND LA PAZ COUNTY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW...NOT ANTICIPATING THAT ACTIVITY TO
ADVECT IN A BIG WAY OVER OUR AREA. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE LESS
ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE HAD LAST NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING DEBRIS CLOUDS/SHOWERS
FROM SONORA BUT THAT ACTIVITY IS ALSO LESS ROBUST TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...ANTICIPATE LESS CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS SATURDAY
MORNING THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 246 PM MST/PDT...
RAIN SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM AND
SPANNING WESTWARD INTO AZ AND EVEN ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. BROAD
CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE DAY HAS KEPT MOST
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOL...WITH MANY SITES
AROUND PHOENIX-COOLIDGE-WICKENBURG STILL IN THE 90S. CLOUD COVER HAS
EXPANDED TOWARDS AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THEIR FORECAST HIGHS IN PLACES LIKE YUMA AND
IMPERIAL AROUND 103-106F. AROUND THE REGION...INVERTED TROUGH
CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON SATELLITE LOOPS AND UA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AZ WAS MOSTLY CAPTURED IN THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODEL INITIALIZATION...HOWEVER MOISTURE FIELDS WERE
STILL GENERALLY UNDERDONE. EVEN WITHOUT A FAIR INITIALIZATION...FCST
MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION STILL QUITE EXCESSIVE FOR THIS
EARLY IN THE MONSOON WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS 10-12C AND 700MB DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE 3-6C RANGE. LOOK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO PERCOLATE FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SLOWER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AZ/NORTHERN SONORA
CORNER OF THE WORLD.
WITH SUCH A RICH MOISTURE SFC...ANY RIPPLE/DISTURBANCE/OUTFLOW/MCV
THAT TRAVELS INTO THE AREA COULD HELP GEN-UP PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AZ DESERT LOCALES. THE BETTER INITIALIZED HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE AN ACTIVE AFTN/EVENING ON THE RIM COULD SEND SOME OUTFLOWS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ALSO...CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE FROM OUR
NEIGHBORS IN TUCSON LENDS ITSELF TO ANOTHER LARGE SONORA STORM
COMPLEX THAT COULD FURTHER ADD STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT FROM LA PAZ TO GILA...MARICOPA AND
PINAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY DECREASING ML/UL WIND FIELDS
WILL GENERALLY POINT TO SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN AREA IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT LATER INTO THE
EVENING.
300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE THROUGH NM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...VEERING SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
COULD SPREAD AS FAR
WEST AS BLH AND I ALSO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AFTER 09Z. NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IPL DRY ALTHOUGH THEY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP/DISSIPATE OVER
MEXICO.
G THE BELT OF STRONG UL WINDS AND STEERING FLOW
FURTHER INTO SOCAL AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY. MODEL STREAMLINE
FORECASTS DO NOT POINT TO ANYONE PARTICULAR DISTURBANCE OR INVERTED
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR SATURDAY...BUT DO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOMETHING
MORE ORGANIZED TO COME UP FROM THE GULF OF CA FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA
IS ALSO PROGGED TO GET ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE THE SOUTH...TAPPING
INTO A POTENTIAL 2 INCH PWAT SURFACE ACROSS SONORA...PUSHING 850MB
AND 700MB DEWPOINTS BEYOND THE 8 AND 10C MONSOON LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY. SATURDAY CARRIES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES IN TERMS OF
PERCENTAGES AND AREAL COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO THE BE RULE THIS PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF RAIN-COOLED AIR AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS LEAVING DAYTIME TEMPS RUNNING THE UPPER 90 TO 105
RANGE OR SO.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LATEST GFS MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YDA...AND NOW
FORECASTS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THRU
FRIDAY. ONLY ONE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.
MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE A ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.
NEXT SATURDAY...
MODELS FORECAST AN INVERTED TROF IN THE EASTERLIES TO ROTATE OUT OF
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHERN AZ FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH CREDENCE IS PUT INTO THE EXTENDED MODEL
FORECASTS DURING THE MONSOON...THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
LOW GRADE MONSOON THREAT OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS OVER
PINAL...EASTERN MARICOPA...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY AS OF 04Z ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE PHOENIX
METRO. MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE KSDL. NOT
ANTICIPATING AS MUCH ACTIVITY AS LAST NIGHT BUT KPHX WILL HAVE A
50/50 CHANCE OF GETTING TSRA AND GUSTY/VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 04Z-
08Z. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 KFT MSL BUT HEAVIEST SHOWERS COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY TO DROP BELOW 3SM. AFTER 09Z...DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REMNANTS OF SONORA
MEXICO STORMS. THUS THE MENTION OF VCSH.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY LA
PAZ AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL TO LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING STORMS TO BE SEVERE AND CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 KFT MSL. HEAVIEST SHOWERS COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW 3SM.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE TO BE RE-POSITIONED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASED CHANCE OF DESERT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIRLY TYPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES ANTICIPATED ALL WEEK. HIGHER VALUES WILL BE SEEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS
WILL DOMINATE ALL WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
410 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR
THE VALLEY WHILE MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE WARM WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VALLEY: THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY (REDDING/RED BLUFF
VICINITY) WILL BE THE HOTTEST REGION. THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY (SACRAMENTO METRO AREA) AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
(STOCKTON/MODESTO VICINITY) WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE DELTA BREEZE
AND BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. WITH THAT IN MIND, HERE`S A LOOK AT HOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT DURING THE DAY...FOR RUNS/WALKS AND
PARADES IN THE MORNING HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE
MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AROUND 7 AM THEN WARM UP TO THE MID 80S AND
UPPER 90S BY NOON. THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE BETWEEN 4-6
PM WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 92 TO 105 DEGREES. MOST FIREWORKS
SHOWS WILL START AROUND 9 PM WITH 80-95 DEGREES BECOMING 75-90 BY
10 PM.
DELTA: 7 AM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S THEN REACH 70-80
DEGREES BY NOON. PEAK HEAT BETWEEN 4-6 PM WILL BE 80S TO LOW 90S.
BETWEEN 9-10 PM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS: THE HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SIERRA CREST NEAR AND NORTH OF YOSEMITE AROUND 11 AM THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL RANGE
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL IMPACT THE
SAFETY OF PEOPLE OUTSIDE FOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES. PLEASE WATCH THE
SKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STAY SHELTERED IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. BY NOON,
TEMPS WILL BE MID 70S TO MID 90S. PEAK HEAT WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 100S BETWEEN 3-6 PM. 9-10 PM TEMPS WILL BE MID
60S TO UPPER 80S.
FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE PATTERN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WILL PERSIST.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. BY TUESDAY, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CA COASTLINE. JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TRANSITING THE TROUGH
FROM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS NORCAL INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HRS EXC LCL MVFR/IFR VCNTY THUNDERSTORMS OMTNS
22Z-04Z. GENLY LGT WINDS BECMG SLY 10-15 KTS IN THE SAC VLY AFT
23Z (NWLY IN THE NRN SJ VLY) EXC WLY 20-30 KTS VCNTY CARQUINEZ
STRAIT.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF DELAWARE AT MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT
THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS EVE AND
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W TONIGHT. LTST RADAR SHOWED
PRECIP COMING TO AN END ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHWRS BACK OVER VA AND THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THESE
CUD AFFECT MAINLY SRN AREAS THRU LATE AFTN, BUT ALL PRECIP SHUD
END BY SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE SHWRS WILL EVEN
IMPACT THE AREA.
THEN FOR TONIGHT, DRY WX WITH LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. PRECIP IS COMING TO AN
END ACRS THE REGION. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS TO THE N AND W WHERE IT
WAS STEADIER EARLIER CONDS REMAINED VFR FOR THE MOST PART. THERE
CUD STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHWRS THRU LATE AFTN, MAINLY S AND W,
BUT WILL STILL GO WITH VFR CONDS. AFTER 00Z, ANY AND ALL PRECIP
CHCS WILL HAVE ENDED. THEN EXPECT A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY. FEW IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUN, WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE S.
THE NE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, MORE NLY
EARLY ION SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S OR SW LATER ON SUN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THRU THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA.
BASED ON THE LTST RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS N AND W IN THE NEAR
TERM AND DECREASED S AND E. THE MOST CURRENT HRRR INDICATES PRECIP
MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES SEWD AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, THEN POPS WILL BE OVERDONE. WE`LL REASSESS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS (UPWARD)
TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S
N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS OF THIS
WRITING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME TIDAL SITES MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 404
NEAR TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
SHORT TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
LONG TERM...DRAG 404
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 404
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 404
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...404
RIP CURRENTS...404
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST CHANGE WAS TO START MORNING SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN MARTIN COUNTY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 AND FLORIDA
TURNPIKE EAST TO THE OCEAN. THE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY AND
ENTERING MARTIN COUNTY.
TOO EARLY TO MESS WITH THE REST OF THE ZONES FORECAST AT THIS
MOMENT. GOING TO WATCH RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24HRS. A
FRONTAL TROF STALLED OVER THE MID ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ATLC SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE AXIS HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE N BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL...
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NRN GOMEX. SRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR
AOB 10KTS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP BY MIDDAY. NO
SIG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS THE 00Z PENINSULA RAOBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW NO MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR...DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE DVLPS.
PRIMARY DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE AS THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT OVER
S FL WORKING THEIR WAY NWD. MID LVL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH
H70-H50 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND 3C WILL SUSTAIN THE DIURNAL CU
FIELD AS IT DVLPS.
WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTION...THEY
ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE...
WHICH WILL EXCEED THE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY (U80S/L90S).
FURTHERMORE...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LCL COL IN THE H85-H50 LYR OVER
THE W PENINSULA THAT IS ENHANCING THE LCL MID LVL VORT FIELDS THAT
SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. AS THE SEA BREEZE
PROPAGATES INLAND...SHOULD SEE SCT/NMRS SHRAS/TSRA DVLP ALONG AND W
OF THE FL TURNPIKE.
THE 04/00Z MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS FROM 40-50 ALNG
THE COAST TO 50-60 INLAND...A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS
HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAINING N OF THE INTERSTATE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS IS COMMON IN HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS. OVERNIGHT
MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
SUN-TUE...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...LIFTING OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CTRL PENINSULA
WITH LGT SWRLY STEERING FLOW SUN BECOME A VERY LIGHT/CHAOTIC SRLY
DRIFT MON-TUE. POPS REMAIN 50 COAST/60 NORTH/INLAND DROPPING BY 10
PCT ON TUE. TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO...MAXES 89-90F ALONG THE
COAST AND L90S INLAND...MINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 75F.
WED-FRI...THE TUTT LOW WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE XTD PORTION OF
FRI`S DISCUSSION WILL START OFF LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS. THIS IN TURN IS PROGGED TO SHUNT THE TUTT LOW TOWARD
THE WSW AND INTO THE FL STRAITS WHILST DEFORMING IT. WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT A WARMING/DRYING TREND WITH POPS LOWERING COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
BY SAT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND
TOWARD THE WRN ATLC. THIS ERODES THE MEAN RIDGE OVER FL...LEADING TO
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN CONUS. INCREASING SWRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE
SAGGING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPELL AN
INCREASING TREND IN POPS...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT THIS FAR OUT (DAY 7-8)
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION THRU 05/12Z...
ADDED MORNING VCTS TO THE KSUA AND KFPR TAFS.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 04/13Z-04/16Z...E OF
KTIX-KOBE BCMG E/SE 5-8KTS...W OF KTIX-KOBE S/SE 4-7KTS. BTWN 04/16Z-
04/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG THRU 05/02Z. BTWN
04/19Z-04/21Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS CONTG THRU 04/02Z.
BTWN 05/02Z-05/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 04/15Z-04/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 04/18Z-04/22Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...SLGT CHC +TSRA WITH SFC G35KTS
INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN 04/22Z-
05/01Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL FL WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...
S/SE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...S/SW N OF THE INLET. WINDS BCMG E/SE
NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.
SUN-WED...NIL TO MINIMAL CHG IN THE POSN OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP
STAGNANT WX PATTERN IN PLACE. A GENTLE TO MDT SSE TO SSW FLOW ABOUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BACK ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS 2FT OR A LITTLE LESS NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 72 90 74 / 30 20 60 30
MCO 94 74 92 74 / 60 30 60 30
MLB 90 72 88 75 / 30 20 50 30
VRB 90 72 89 75 / 40 20 50 30
LEE 93 72 93 76 / 60 30 60 30
SFB 94 72 91 74 / 50 30 60 30
ORL 94 74 91 75 / 60 30 60 30
FPR 91 72 89 74 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
652 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY]...
DHN AND ABY REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING, WITH DHN TEETERING
ON IFR. UNEXPECTEDLY, VLD FELL TO LIFR LEVELS THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT DHN AND ABY. BY THIS EVENING, WE`LL LIKELY JUST BE
LEFT WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS DECK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [325 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, A +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE PLAINS AND ROLL ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WILL YIELD DEEP-LAYER, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAKENING MCS JUST NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION HAS SPAWNED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS GRADUALLY PROPAGATING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, OUTFLOW FROM THE DEVELOPING MCS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL ALSO REACH OUR AREA. THIS WILL CERTAINLY WREAK HAVOC ON THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TODAY. THE RAP, AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE 4KM NAM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT REALLY CAPTURE THE
INITIAL OUTFLOW ENTERING THE REGION. NEITHER OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON START TO THE
SEABREEZE FRONTS, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND COASTLINES. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRI-STATE
INTERSECTION WHERE THE SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY MEET
THE SEABREEZE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, SOUTH GEORGIA, AND THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL
RECEIVE RAIN.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT GOES, IT REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW OF TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE THAT A SLUG OF HIGH SBCAPE, SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES,
AND MARGINAL DELTA THETA-E VALUES WILL OVERLAP. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NEAR THE TRI-
STATE INTERSECTION. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSY IN NATURE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
THIS EVENING WE EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WITH A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN, LIGHT WINDS, AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
(RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE TO 50 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AL AND
GA).
A BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY, ENHANCING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION BY MONDAY, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DEEP MOIST
CONVECTIVE CELLS. WITH THE EXPECTED ABOVE-AVERAGE CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FORECAST THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY, TO BE REPLACED
BY A RELATIVELY SKINNY RIDGE WHICH WILL ACT AS A BRIDGE BETWEEN
HEIGHT MAXIMA IN TX AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS,
ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY
CORRELATES WELL WITH CLIMO POPS (30-40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING) AND TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S).
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.
.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 93 73 90 72 91 / 50 20 60 30 40
PANAMA CITY 88 78 85 77 86 / 20 20 60 20 40
DOTHAN 89 72 87 71 88 / 60 30 60 30 40
ALBANY 91 72 88 71 89 / 60 30 60 40 40
VALDOSTA 94 72 91 71 91 / 50 20 60 30 40
CROSS CITY 92 73 91 73 91 / 40 20 50 30 40
APALACHICOLA 89 78 86 75 88 / 20 20 40 20 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24HRS. A
FRONTAL TROF STALLED OVER THE MID ATLC/MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE ATLC SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE AXIS HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE N BUT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS DRAPED OVER CNTRL FL...
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NRN GOMEX. SRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR
AOB 10KTS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP BY MIDDAY. NO
SIG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS THE 00Z PENINSULA RAOBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW NO MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR...DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE DVLPS.
PRIMARY DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE AS THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT OVER
S FL WORKING THEIR WAY NWD. MID LVL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH
H70-H50 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND 3C WILL SUSTAIN THE DIURNAL CU
FIELD AS IT DVLPS.
WHILE THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTION...THEY
ALSO WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO THE L/M90S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE...
WHICH WILL EXCEED THE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS FOR THE DAY (U80S/L90S).
FURTHERMORE...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LCL COL IN THE H85-H50 LYR OVER
THE W PENINSULA THAT IS ENHANCING THE LCL MID LVL VORT FIELDS THAT
SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT. AS THE SEA BREEZE
PROPAGATES INLAND...SHOULD SEE SCT/NMRS SHRAS/TSRA DVLP ALONG AND W
OF THE FL TURNPIKE.
THE 04/00Z MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS FROM 40-50 ALNG
THE COAST TO 50-60 INLAND...A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THE 3KM WRF AND HRRR MODELS
HINT AT EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALNG AND N
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
REMAINING N OF THE INTERSTATE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS IS COMMON IN HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS. OVERNIGHT
MINS HOLDING IN THE L/M70S.
SUN-TUE...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...LIFTING OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CTRL PENINSULA
WITH LGT SWRLY STEERING FLOW SUN BECOME A VERY LIGHT/CHAOTIC SRLY
DRIFT MON-TUE. POPS REMAIN 50 COAST/60 NORTH/INLAND DROPPING BY 10
PCT ON TUE. TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO...MAXES 89-90F ALONG THE
COAST AND L90S INLAND...MINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 75F.
WED-FRI...THE TUTT LOW WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE XTD PORTION OF
FRI`S DISCUSSION WILL START OFF LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS. THIS IN TURN IS PROGGED TO SHUNT THE TUTT LOW TOWARD
THE WSW AND INTO THE FL STRAITS WHILST DEFORMING IT. WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT A WARMING/DRYING TREND WITH POPS LOWERING COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
BY SAT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND
TOWARD THE WRN ATLC. THIS ERODES THE MEAN RIDGE OVER FL...LEADING TO
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN CONUS. INCREASING SWRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE
SAGGING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPELL AN
INCREASING TREND IN POPS...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT THIS FAR OUT (DAY 7-8)
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION THRU 05/12Z...
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/13Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. BTWN 04/13Z-04/16Z...E OF
KTIX-KOBE BCMG E/SE 5-8KTS...W OF KTIX-KOBE S/SE 4-7KTS. BTWN 04/16Z-
04/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG THRU 05/02Z. BTWN
04/19Z-04/21Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG E/SE 6-9KTS CONTG THRU 04/02Z.
BTWN 05/02Z-05/06Z...BCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.
WX/VSBYS/CIGS: BTWN 04/15Z-04/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG
ALNG THE ECSB MVG N/NW AOB 10KTS. BTWN 04/18Z-04/22Z...SHRAS/TSRAS
BCMG NMRS AND DRIFTING INLAND...SLGT CHC +TSRA WITH SFC G35KTS
INTERIOR SITES...PREVAILING VFR E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN 04/22Z-
05/01Z...N OF KTIX-KISM AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH -RA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED E-W ACRS CENTRAL FL WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...
S/SE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...S/SW N OF THE INLET. WINDS BCMG E/SE
NEAR THE COAST ARND MIDDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT.
SUN-WED...NIL TO MINIMAL CHG IN THE POSN OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP
STAGNANT WX PATTERN IN PLACE. A GENTLE TO MDT SSE TO SSW FLOW ABOUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BACK ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS 2FT OR A LITTLE LESS NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 72 90 74 / 30 20 60 30
MCO 94 74 92 74 / 60 30 60 30
MLB 90 72 88 75 / 30 20 50 30
VRB 90 72 89 75 / 40 20 50 30
LEE 93 72 93 76 / 60 30 60 30
SFB 94 72 91 74 / 50 30 60 30
ORL 94 74 91 75 / 60 30 60 30
FPR 91 72 89 74 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, A +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO EXIT THE PLAINS AND ROLL ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WILL YIELD DEEP-LAYER, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAKENING MCS JUST NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION HAS SPAWNED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS GRADUALLY PROPAGATING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, OUTFLOW FROM THE DEVELOPING MCS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL ALSO REACH OUR AREA. THIS WILL CERTAINLY WREAK HAVOC ON THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TODAY. THE RAP, AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE 4KM NAM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT REALLY CAPTURE THE
INITIAL OUTFLOW ENTERING THE REGION. NEITHER OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WE`LL LIKELY SEE A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON START TO THE
SEABREEZE FRONTS, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND COASTLINES. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRI-STATE
INTERSECTION WHERE THE SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY MEET
THE SEABREEZE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, SOUTH GEORGIA, AND THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL
RECEIVE RAIN.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT GOES, IT REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW OF TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE THAT A SLUG OF HIGH SBCAPE, SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES,
AND MARGINAL DELTA THETA-E VALUES WILL OVERLAP. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NEAR THE TRI-
STATE INTERSECTION. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSY IN NATURE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
THIS EVENING WE EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WITH A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN, LIGHT WINDS, AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
(RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE TO 50 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AL AND
GA).
A BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY, ENHANCING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION BY MONDAY, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DEEP MOIST
CONVECTIVE CELLS. WITH THE EXPECTED ABOVE-AVERAGE CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FORECAST THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY, TO BE REPLACED
BY A RELATIVELY SKINNY RIDGE WHICH WILL ACT AS A BRIDGE BETWEEN
HEIGHT MAXIMA IN TX AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS,
ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY
CORRELATES WELL WITH CLIMO POPS (30-40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING) AND TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S).
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] MVFR CEILINGS MAY OVERSPREAD ECP, DHN, AND
ABY LATER THIS MORNING. RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY SCATTER SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, THOUGH A SCATTERED DECK AROUND MVFR LEVELS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT PRETTY MUCH ALL TERMINALS TODAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT DHN AND ABY. BY THIS EVENING, WE`LL
LIKELY JUST BE LEFT WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS DECK.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 93 73 90 72 91 / 50 20 60 30 40
PANAMA CITY 88 78 85 77 86 / 20 20 60 20 40
DOTHAN 89 72 87 71 88 / 60 30 60 30 40
ALBANY 91 72 88 71 89 / 60 30 60 40 40
VALDOSTA 94 72 91 71 91 / 50 20 60 30 40
CROSS CITY 92 73 91 73 91 / 40 20 50 30 40
APALACHICOLA 89 78 86 75 88 / 20 20 40 20 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 84 69 86 / 50 60 40 50
ATLANTA 70 81 69 84 / 60 60 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 63 76 63 79 / 60 60 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 68 80 68 84 / 70 60 40 50
COLUMBUS 72 85 71 87 / 60 60 40 50
GAINESVILLE 68 80 68 83 / 60 60 50 50
MACON 71 88 70 88 / 30 60 40 50
ROME 68 81 68 85 / 70 60 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 69 82 69 85 / 60 60 40 50
VIDALIA 73 92 72 89 / 30 60 40 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN GA SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD BE
MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE AND ISOLD/SCT IN COVERAGE. FURTHER
SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GOOD HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.
HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.
01
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 81 70 85 69 / 100 50 60 40
ATLANTA 80 71 84 70 / 100 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 74 64 78 63 / 90 70 70 50
CARTERSVILLE 80 68 83 67 / 100 70 70 40
COLUMBUS 87 72 87 71 / 50 60 60 40
GAINESVILLE 80 69 82 68 / 100 60 60 50
MACON 86 71 89 70 / 40 40 60 40
ROME 80 69 83 68 / 100 70 70 40
PEACHTREE CITY 81 70 84 69 / 100 60 60 40
VIDALIA 91 71 91 72 / 40 40 60 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.
HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.
01
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
DEESE/01
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 70 85 69 / 100 60 60 40
ATLANTA 83 71 84 70 / 100 70 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 75 64 78 63 / 100 70 70 50
CARTERSVILLE 81 68 83 67 / 100 70 70 40
COLUMBUS 87 72 87 71 / 60 60 70 40
GAINESVILLE 79 69 82 68 / 100 70 70 50
MACON 90 71 89 70 / 50 60 70 40
ROME 82 69 83 68 / 100 70 70 40
PEACHTREE CITY 84 70 84 69 / 100 70 70 40
VIDALIA 93 71 91 72 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
254 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A NICE 4TH OF JULY NIGHT LIES AHEAD FOR CENTRAL/SE IL FOR FIREWORK
DISPLAYS AT DUSK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1017 MB OVER CENTRAL IL
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K FT WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET LEAVING JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME HAZY
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WITH FAIR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING TOWARD DEWPOINTS OF 60-65F
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SE OF THE IL RIVER. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
APPEAR IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH HRRR NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
FORMATION AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS WEEK. LATEST NAM MODEL HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT AND
HAS IT JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...WHILE
THE REMAINING MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR EARLIER TRENDS OF BEING
JUST EAST OF I-55 BY THAT TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS
USED FOR THE EARLY WEEK WEATHER.
HAVE LIMITED MENTIONABLE POP`S MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WITH THE MAIN SHOW COMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE.
SUCH VALUES LINGER ACROSS AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF
ON STALLING THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF THIS INDEED STALLS OVER OUR AREA...BUT IN
THE MEANTIME WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POP`S SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW (5% ON LATEST SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK) AS
THE FRONT WOULD BE ARRIVING AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A NORTHWARD SURGE IN
THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO EJECT NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER PATTERNS ARE SHOWING A
FAIR RANGE IN THESE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MORE OF A SPLIT
FLOW CONVERGING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THE GFS WITH IT MORE OVERHEAD
OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL AFFECT WHERE EXACTLY TO FOCUS THE
HIGHER POP`S LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO AROUND 40%
UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT COMES INTO PLAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT THIS AFTERNOON COULD GO BROKEN A
FEW TIMES INTO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG I-72 AIRPORTS WHERE
SPI HAS MVFR CEILING NEAR 2K FT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET/0130Z LEAVING JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-4K FT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AFTER 15Z/SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL MO/IL/IN
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS INTO TONIGHT BECOME SSE NEAR 6 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS NEAR I-72. HRRR SHOWING PATCHY
FOG BY 06-07Z EAST OF I-55. ANY PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIFT TO A LIGHT HAZE BY 13Z/SUN.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A BEAUTIFUL 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THAT PANS
OUT THAT WILL BE THE 1ST DRY WEEKEND IN CENTRAL IL SINCE MAY 2-3.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WHICH
LIFTED BY MID MORNING. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER WITH A LITTLE MORE
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING SE OF THE IL RIVER
WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH OF
I-70. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
THOUGH STILL MAY HAVE A LINGERING HAZE FROM THE SMOKE FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILDFIRES. HIGHS 80-85F THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL/MO TODAY. DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO ABOUT 875MB...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DESPITE THE WARMER
CONDITIONS...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TOLERABLE IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S BOTH DAYS...WHILE DEWPOINTS CLIMB OVER 70 DEGREES.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...TRIGGERING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY THEN TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
TUE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BY LATE MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE FRONT...WITH THE 00Z
JULY 4 RUNS NOW KEEPING IT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ABSENT AND 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE MEAGER AT JUST 15-20KT. AM THEREFORE EXPECTING A
LARGELY HOT AND DRY DAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING
IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE CUT BACK POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...IT
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONSENSUS...THINK BOUNDARY WILL SLIP
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO END RAIN CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL
CONTINUE POPS AS A WEAK WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS
FEATURE PASSES TO THE EAST...ECMWF SHOWS FRONT GETTING SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH A LARGELY DRY FORECAST DURING THAT TIME
ACCORDINGLY. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND FRONT GETS PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT THIS AFTERNOON COULD GO BROKEN A
FEW TIMES INTO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG I-72 AIRPORTS WHERE
SPI HAS MVFR CEILING NEAR 2K FT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET/0130Z LEAVING JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-4K FT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AFTER 15Z/SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL MO/IL/IN
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS INTO TONIGHT BECOME SSE NEAR 6 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS NEAR I-72. HRRR SHOWING PATCHY
FOG BY 06-07Z EAST OF I-55. ANY PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIFT TO A LIGHT HAZE BY 13Z/SUN.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1108 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...HAS SHIFTED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
IN ITS PLACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL THRU
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKY AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AND QUICK TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A WARM DAY SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE FOR EARLY JULY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRENDS...AS A RESULT...NO ZFP UPDATE
WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 06Z SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES. ANY FOG WE DO SEE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FORMING
WITH BASES IN THE 3000-4000 FOOT LEVEL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.
TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THEN
DEEPEN ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 12-18KT INTO
TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AFTER 15Z TO 15-25KT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF INTO TONIGHT AS NVA SPREADS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. NEW MODELS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL EXCEPT FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN
ELEVATED STORM NEAR HAYS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 69 98 70 / 10 10 10 40
GCK 91 69 98 70 / 10 10 10 40
EHA 95 70 98 67 / 20 20 10 30
LBL 94 70 97 70 / 20 10 10 30
HYS 91 69 99 71 / 10 10 10 50
P28 91 71 97 73 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.
TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST
YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WAS IF TO PUT TS/CB GROUPS IN THE TAFS. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OR NOT, SO WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE 5-7 KFT CLOUD DECK AND WINDS WILL BE
SE/SSE 10-20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 69 96 70 / 20 20 10 40
GCK 91 69 98 70 / 20 20 10 40
EHA 95 70 97 67 / 20 20 20 30
LBL 94 70 97 70 / 20 20 10 30
HYS 90 69 98 71 / 20 20 20 50
P28 91 71 95 73 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING
EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS WARM
LAYER AND WHERE AN AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THIS AS
NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO
NEBRASKA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE
HUMID AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES FROM THE RAP AND NAM INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 21Z SATURDAY. 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY,
SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO BE LOCATED ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE, HOWEVER WEAK
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES LATE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. STILL GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER
WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH HINTS OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 70
MPH. AN ISOLATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL STONE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BASED ON THE WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
850MB TO 800MB LEVEL THE HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND
6F WARMER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS YESTERDAY. HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR 95 DEGREES.
TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MEAN STORM MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WINDY, AND WARMER. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES, HOWEVER GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT GO THAT WARM JUST YET AND HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND BY 12Z MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. BY 00Z
MONDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER 0-1KM FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM THE NAM WERE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL
BE PRESENT LATE DAY BUT BASED ON EXPECTED HIGHS AM NOT COMPLETELY
ABLE TO RULE OUT A LATE DAY STORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ADVERTISED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND TIMING OF THE COOLER
SPREADING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IT APPEARS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT STAY FAR. BETTER COOLING EXPECTED WILL OCCUR ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES INDICATED HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COOL DOWN WILL END BY THURSDAY
AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE 5000 TO 1000FT AGL LEVEL WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BURF SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TREND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE GCK AREA
THROUGH 08Z. ELSEWHERE ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVLOP
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THEY WILL PASS DDC OR HYS AIRPORTS. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY ALSO APPEARS SMALL SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 69 96 70 / 20 20 10 40
GCK 91 69 98 70 / 20 20 10 40
EHA 95 70 97 67 / 10 10 20 30
LBL 94 70 97 70 / 20 20 10 30
HYS 90 69 98 71 / 20 20 20 50
P28 91 71 95 73 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.
SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 73 90 75 / 40 30 30 20
MLU 85 72 88 73 / 80 50 60 20
DEQ 84 71 86 72 / 50 30 40 30
TXK 86 72 88 74 / 50 30 60 30
ELD 84 71 87 73 / 100 50 40 30
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 30 20 20 10
GGG 88 73 91 75 / 30 20 30 10
LFK 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.
KRAUTMANN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 88 72 / 60 60 60 20
BTR 89 74 90 74 / 60 60 50 10
ASD 90 74 89 74 / 60 60 50 20
MSY 89 77 89 76 / 60 60 50 10
GPT 88 76 87 75 / 50 50 50 30
PQL 89 74 88 74 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.
SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 73 90 75 / 60 30 30 20
MLU 86 72 88 73 / 60 50 60 20
DEQ 84 71 86 72 / 40 30 40 30
TXK 86 72 88 74 / 60 30 60 30
ELD 85 71 87 73 / 80 50 40 30
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 20 10
GGG 88 73 91 75 / 40 20 30 10
LFK 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.
SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 73 90 75 / 60 30 30 20
MLU 86 72 88 73 / 60 50 60 20
DEQ 84 71 86 72 / 40 30 40 30
TXK 86 72 88 74 / 60 30 60 30
ELD 85 71 87 73 / 80 50 40 30
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 20 10
GGG 88 73 91 75 / 40 20 30 10
LFK 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.
.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 73 90 75 / 60 30 30 20
MLU 86 72 88 73 / 60 50 60 20
DEQ 84 71 86 72 / 40 30 40 30
TXK 86 72 88 74 / 60 30 60 30
ELD 85 71 87 73 / 80 50 40 30
TYR 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 20 10
GGG 88 73 91 75 / 40 20 30 10
LFK 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 72 88 72 / 60 60 60 20
BTR 89 74 90 74 / 60 60 50 10
ASD 90 74 89 74 / 60 60 50 20
MSY 89 77 89 76 / 60 60 50 10
GPT 88 76 87 75 / 50 50 50 30
PQL 89 74 88 74 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL REMAIN THE RULE TNITE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS PER LATEST HRRR MOVING IN FROM THE GULF INTO BPT AND LCH
BEFORE MORNING. WILL GO WITH LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED VCTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE 4TH AS THE UPPER TROF BRINGS IN A COOL POOL ALOFT
AND ALLOWS CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND
THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 90 74 91 / 20 60 20 40
LCH 77 90 77 90 / 10 30 20 30
LFT 77 89 76 90 / 10 40 20 40
BPT 77 90 78 91 / 10 30 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. WE`RE SEEING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. THE HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE DO SHOW SOME STRONGER RETURNS
ACROSS DOWNEAST/BANGOR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
MINIMAL ACTUAL RAINFALL. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
VERY DRY, SO EXPECT THAT ANY RAIN DROPS WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY
HIT THE GROUND. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, AND
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS, AND TODAY AND
THIS EVENING STILL LOOK DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING
OUT OF CLOUD BASES 10000 TO 15000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT ECHOES
SHOW UP ON RADAR LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WARM AROUND 80.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE TONIGHT AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER LATE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LACKING, THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW SB/MUCAPE HITTING 500-1000 JOULES FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
AOA 1.00 INCHES W/MODEST 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM. A
NOTE ON ALL THIS IS THAT LLVL WARMING IS ON A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT W/LITTLE TO NO CAP. SO, THE BUOYANCY IS THERE.
FACTORS THAT POINT AWAY FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS W/THE MAM MOST AGGRESSIVE W/ITS MOISTURE
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS MOIST. BOTH SHOW WEAK SHEAR < 20 KTS
DESPITE THE INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE ATTM IS
NOT TOO HIGH AND GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS(30-40%) W/THE HIGHEST POPS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS BUT LEFT OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY
W/LATER GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT W/HIGH PRES MOVING IN FOR MONDAY AND WARMER.
USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE QPF W/AREAL BASIN AVERAGES
<0.10". STAYED CLOSE THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES W/UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ON MONDAY
W/MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND CONTINUED WARM INTO TUESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FOR WEDNESDAY W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
DIFFERENCES EXIST W/THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER W/MOVING FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG THE FRONT BACK BY ABOUT 6 HRS W/A
WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP RAIN IN LONGER ALONG THE MAINE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE WSW WHICH COULD FAVOR A
SLOWER ENDING TO THE RAINFALL W/THE FRONT BEING HELD UP LONGER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO
KEEP 20-30% POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH W/TEMPERATURES AS WELL LEANING W/MID TO UPPER 70S INTO
THE LATE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THINGS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT EVEN BY LATE TONIGHT,
EXPECT CEILINGS STILL AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET.
SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. VFR MONDAY RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM W/WINDS PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO 10-15 KTS. A CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. USED THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WNAWAVE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
821 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.
TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.
MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.
THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MON
MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN
INCREASES. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.
SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.
THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.
LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.
THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.
LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.
SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.
REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
DIURNAL CU FIELDS BEGINNING TO GROW AND STILL EXPECTING A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES
ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.
(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.
(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.
MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.
(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.
MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.
SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.
REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AFFECTING KIWD/KSAW WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE NEXT HR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.
SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.
REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.
SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.
REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.
(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
VFR.
A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.
ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE EVENING LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DISSIPATING DIURNAL CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GREATER MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS BY THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE RAP THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS, THEN
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK PETURBATION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 3000-7000 FT LAYER AND ATTENDANT THERMAL AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE 07-15Z TIME
FRAME. I HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS IN MIND. OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT AND A
RATHER WARM DAY IS ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY. THE MODELS NOW ALL HAVE
A BIT SLOWER PROGRESS WITH THE COLD FRONT, NOT ENTERING FAR
NORTHWEST MO UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THIS SLOWER SPEED
AND LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST WAA REGIME, I EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 90. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE BROAD WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY
FOCUS WITH THE MODELS HAVING SOME GROWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME
FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND WHERE THE FRONT MAY LIE. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST AGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUSH EARLY ON THEN WAVERS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DON`T MOVE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN WAVER IT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WAVES MOVE ALONG IT, FINALLY
PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE REGION SPANNING
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND A BROAD REGION OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ONCE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE REGION A BIT BETTER.
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MVFR HAZE DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THINK MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD OVERNIGHT...THOUGH VSBYS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS LOW AS
LAST NIGHT WITHOUT SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT A STRATUS LAYER COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE OZARKS AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THIS LAYER COULD BE VERY LOW...AT OR
BELOW 1,500 FT. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRO THIS INTO THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUING
INTO MID-MORNING. AS ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
BE LIGHT AND VERY ISOLATED, HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. MONDAY SHOULD BE VFR AFTER ANY LINGERING FOG/HAZE/STRATUS
DISSIPATES WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LAMBERT...AND VSBY TO DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING. THINK IFR VSBYS ARE VERY UNLIKELY
TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER WIND AND LOW LEVEL MIXING...NOT TO MENTION
LACK OF FIREWORKS. A LAYER OF STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OZARKS
LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
THIS LAYER COULD BE VERY LOW...AT OR BELOW 1,500 FT. AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRO THIS INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUING INTO MID-
MORNING. AS ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT
AND VERY ISOLATED, HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY SHOULD BE VFR AFTER ANY LINGERING FOG/HAZE/STRATUS
DISSIPATES WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CAN FORM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITH THE COLD FRONT/SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY.
AT 12Z...H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A BROAD TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
H7 MOISTURE WAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE H7 TROF WITH 2 TO 4 DEG H7
DEWPOINTS. 12Z H85 DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN TO 12 TO 14 DEG C ACROSS
THE STATE. MORNING CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DISSIPATED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOW HIGHEST MLCAPE TORWARD FAIRBURY AND
LINCOLN AND THE WEAKEST CAP IS IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BUILDING IN TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE SHORT-TERM HIRES MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THIS
EVENING. THE RAP AND SPC HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH CAPE/WEAK CAP AREA. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IF STORMS BREAK
THE CAP...THE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
TONIGHT...THERE IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND OMEGA WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROF. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES WITH
THESE FEATURES...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA REMAINING WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 03Z...THEN SPREAD INTO
THE REST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE COLD FRONT. THROUGH
12Z...A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG IS FORECAST. DO MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE ZONE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
MORNING...ANOTHER PUSH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN THOUGH BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT TO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND RE-GENERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN WITH THE HIGH PWATS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NAM20 EVEN HAS A RARE 3
INCH BULLSEYE FOR PWAT NEAR FNB AT 00Z MONDAY EVENING. TRAINING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AREA POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STORM MOTIONS DO DROP DOWN
TO AROUND 15KTS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH A
RIDGE AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
TOWARD KOFK BY 04-06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH KOFK BY 10-12Z AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KOMA AND KLNK BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.
SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEN STATES WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN CANADA. FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE SMOKE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST FROM
FIRES FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE BLACK
HILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PV ANOMALY DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
WRN SD AND WRN NEB. SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF CONVECTION INITIATION LOCATION AS WELL AS EXTENT AND
COVERAGE. ON THE LARGE SCALE...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER PV ANOMALY IS
PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO CONTINUE ITS SEWD TRACK ACROSS SD AND
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES BEHIND AS
WRN STATES RIDGE FLATTENS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS FROM CANADA. LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER WRN NEB/SD AND INTO NERN CO AS A MORE WRLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND IS THE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...OR NOT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TWD A MORE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON DESPITE BEING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY. WILL SIDE WITH THE IDEA
THAT AS THIS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS SRLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
EAST OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL ALLOW LOW TO MID 60S DEW
POINTS TO MOVE NWD WHICH WILL ALLOW A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP...SUFFICIENT FOR THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE INIT TO OCCUR. WHERE THIS HAPPENS IS WHERE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON. RUC SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON AN AREA
FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NWRN NEB. WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS
THAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THERE IS A SUFFICIENT CAPE-SHEAR
BALANCE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. IN
FACT...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE INIT
SHOW THIS AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP FURTHER
CONVECTION SWWD INTO NEB. RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS ARE PROGGED TO
MOVE SLOWLY AND SWWD AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ON STORMS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE BASED ON THE REASONING ABOVE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SRLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THE PAST WEEK OR SO WILL FINALLY MAKE A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM. SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS
A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY TEMPS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST
CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS SE THROUGH DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DEW
PTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE A FEW AROUND 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS CORRELATES TO GOOD MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN AS PWATS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND COULD SURPASS 2 INCHES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD LIFT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUED THE 60 OR HIGHER POPS.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...1.50 INCHES OR MORE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY AND SIMILAR TO
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
AND BEGIN A RETURN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER AREA. MODELS FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...THEN WITH MORE MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IT SHOULD DRIFT TOWARDS THE CWA. COVER
STILL IN QUESTION AS UPPER SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AND STORMS MAY DIE
AS THE MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FLOW TO
PRIMARILY TO BE ZONAL. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THE EASTERLY MOVEMENT WILL BRING THEM OVERHEAD. RIDGE
DOES BUILD A LITTLE AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TO
HIGHLIGHT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE TIMING OF
TSRA NEAR THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN CANADA. FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE SMOKE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST FROM
FIRES FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE BLACK
HILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PV ANOMALY DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
WRN SD AND WRN NEB. SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF CONVECTION INITIATION LOCATION AS WELL AS EXTENT AND
COVERAGE. ON THE LARGE SCALE...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER PV ANOMALY IS
PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO CONTINUE ITS SEWD TRACK ACROSS SD AND
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY. GOOD HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES BEHIND AS
WRN STATES RIDGE FLATTENS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS FROM CANADA. LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER WRN NEB/SD AND INTO NERN CO AS A MORE WRLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND IS THE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...OR NOT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TWD A MORE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON DESPITE BEING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY. WILL SIDE WITH THE IDEA
THAT AS THIS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS SRLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
EAST OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL ALLOW LOW TO MID 60S DEW
POINTS TO MOVE NWD WHICH WILL ALLOW A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP...SUFFICIENT FOR THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE INIT TO OCCUR. WHERE THIS HAPPENS IS WHERE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON. RUC SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON AN AREA
FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NWRN NEB. WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS
THAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THERE IS A SUFFICIENT CAPE-SHEAR
BALANCE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. IN
FACT...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE INIT
SHOW THIS AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP FURTHER
CONVECTION SWWD INTO NEB. RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS ARE PROGGED TO
MOVE SLOWLY AND SWWD AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ON STORMS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE BASED ON THE REASONING ABOVE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SRLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THE PAST WEEK OR SO WILL FINALLY MAKE A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM. SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS
A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY TEMPS STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO FAR NORTHWEST
CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS SE THROUGH DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DEW
PTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE A FEW AROUND 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS CORRELATES TO GOOD MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN AS PWATS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND COULD SURPASS 2 INCHES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD LIFT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUED THE 60 OR HIGHER POPS.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...1.50 INCHES OR MORE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY AND SIMILAR TO
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
AND BEGIN A RETURN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER AREA. MODELS FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE...THEN WITH MORE MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IT SHOULD DRIFT TOWARDS THE CWA. COVER
STILL IN QUESTION AS UPPER SUPPORT IS MARGINAL AND STORMS MAY DIE
AS THE MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FLOW TO
PRIMARILY TO BE ZONAL. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THE EASTERLY MOVEMENT WILL BRING THEM OVERHEAD. RIDGE
DOES BUILD A LITTLE AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015
THE LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS NERN WYOMING AND SERN MONTANA WAS
NOT HANDLED BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS TONIGHT AS THEY WERE
INDICATING QPF WHICH SHOULD BE ONGOING ATTM. WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
IS INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA AN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SD OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DECENT FORCING TONIGHT...HAVE
OPTED FOR A CLOUD FREE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HAZE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SMOKE FROM FIRES IN
CANADA...CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.
BY AFTERNOON...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE SAT AFTN/EVE...PINPOINTING WHERE AND IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IS VERY DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HANDLE THE TSRA MENTION WITH A VCTS GROUP FOR BOTH
TERMINALS AND CONFINE THIS TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN
LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE THE GREATEST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
924 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY EARLY AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LATEST HRRR
PROGS.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS
ON MONDAY ACROSS NE/EC NM. VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION EXISTS...BUT
IN GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WOULD
PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY MEAN SLOW MOVING...TRAINING...
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES WILL ALSO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS IN
THE MTNS. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECTED A VERY BUSY DAY. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...537 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO AS WINDS ALOFT TREND
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
04Z WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPARKING RANDOM DEVELOPMENT. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON BUT GENERALLY BRIEF WITH STORMS ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATION. SFC LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AFT
06Z WITH WIND SHIFT INTO NE NM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG FARTHER
INTO THE PLAINS AFT 06/15Z...EVENTUALLY FOCUSING TSTMS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS AFT
06/23Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...357 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEP
RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WHILE A BIT LESS LIKELY THAN WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA. THEN ON MONDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS PROGGED TO HEAD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE AND PUSH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH AND WEST...MAKING IT AT LEAST
CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE BY WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER RISK SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING...THEN TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL...A NICE CURVE BALL THROWN AT US BY MA NATURE RENDERED
ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO NEARLY THIRD OF THE STATE TOTALLY
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...DESPITE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF AZ. DECIDED TO TRIM THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK OUT OF THE
WATCH...WHILE KEEPING IT GOING ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM SE AZ...IT APPEARS IN
PART THAT THE 2 MCV/S THAT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND THE STORM STEERING FLOW TO
W AND NW OF ABQ HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY IMPLY WEAK
RIDGING THAT HAS DEVELOPED THERE. HRRR MODEL STILL DEVELOPS PRETTY
GOOD AMT OF CONVECTION TO W OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z
AND MOVES IT INTO THE JEMEZ WHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS DECENT
CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVE GENERALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
SO SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS NOTED.
MON TO TUE PERIOD STILL LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON AND FROM HIGHLANDS
JUST EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST TO THE DIVIDE DUE LARGELY
TO ADDED MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON NIGHT...RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. KEPT THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN WX GRIDS THROUGH
MON...THOUGH EXPANDED EAST SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT IN THE EARLIER
UPDATE. WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...POPS REDUCED A BIT. BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CHANCES ALONG WITH
WHAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPING TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL INDICATED
FOR WED...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK. FOR
LATE WEEK INTO SAT THE GFS STILL BULLISH FOR A DECENT BUT SOMEWHAT
NARROWER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND W NM...MAINTAINING DECENT TO VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. ECMWF MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL
EXPANDS UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE SOONER THAN THE GFS.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A POSSIBLE
DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE AND UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS MAY THEN
ARRIVE FOR LATE WEEK.
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WILL
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINFALL BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND REFOCUS MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE DIVIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/SANDIAS AND MANZANO MTS. GUSTY CANYON WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS WELL HOWEVER PEAK SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE REGULATED BY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES AND GENERALLY GOOD OR
BETTER VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND
BEGIN A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND. THE MAIN AXIS OF STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK AND FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN NM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND BACK INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S WHILE MAX TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-523-527>535.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO AS WINDS ALOFT TREND
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
04Z WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPARKING RANDOM DEVELOPMENT. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE COMMON BUT GENERALLY BRIEF WITH STORMS ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATION. SFC LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AFT
06Z WITH WIND SHIFT INTO NE NM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG FARTHER
INTO THE PLAINS AFT 06/15Z...EVENTUALLY FOCUSING TSTMS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS AFT
06/23Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...357 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEP
RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WHILE A BIT LESS LIKELY THAN WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA. THEN ON MONDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS PROGGED TO HEAD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE AND PUSH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH AND WEST...MAKING IT AT LEAST
CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE BY WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER RISK SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING...THEN TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL...A NICE CURVE BALL THROWN AT US BY MA NATURE RENDERED
ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO NEARLY THIRD OF THE STATE TOTALLY
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...DESPITE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF AZ. DECIDED TO TRIM THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK OUT OF THE
WATCH...WHILE KEEPING IT GOING ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM SE AZ...IT APPEARS IN
PART THAT THE 2 MCV/S THAT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND THE STORM STEERING FLOW TO
W AND NW OF ABQ HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY IMPLY WEAK
RIDGING THAT HAS DEVELOPED THERE. HRRR MODEL STILL DEVELOPS PRETTY
GOOD AMT OF CONVECTION TO W OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z
AND MOVES IT INTO THE JEMEZ WHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS DECENT
CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVE GENERALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
SO SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS NOTED.
MON TO TUE PERIOD STILL LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON AND FROM HIGHLANDS
JUST EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST TO THE DIVIDE DUE LARGELY
TO ADDED MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON NIGHT...RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. KEPT THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN WX GRIDS THROUGH
MON...THOUGH EXPANDED EAST SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT IN THE EARLIER
UPDATE. WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...POPS REDUCED A BIT. BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CHANCES ALONG WITH
WHAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPING TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL INDICATED
FOR WED...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK. FOR
LATE WEEK INTO SAT THE GFS STILL BULLISH FOR A DECENT BUT SOMEWHAT
NARROWER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND W NM...MAINTAINING DECENT TO VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. ECMWF MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL
EXPANDS UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE SOONER THAN THE GFS.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A POSSIBLE
DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE AND UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS MAY THEN
ARRIVE FOR LATE WEEK.
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WILL
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINFALL BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND REFOCUS MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE DIVIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/SANDIAS AND MANZANO MTS. GUSTY CANYON WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS WELL HOWEVER PEAK SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE REGULATED BY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES AND GENERALLY GOOD OR
BETTER VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND
BEGIN A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND. THE MAIN AXIS OF STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK AND FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN NM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND BACK INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S WHILE MAX TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505>509-518>522-524>526.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.
SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1039 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80% BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET
ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS.
FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
714 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80% BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET
ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS.
FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.
REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.
MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1012 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE TIP OF THE FA.
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS QUITE A BIT OF THE SE FA. ALSO REMOVED
SEVERE THREAT FROM THE FAR SE. STILL SOME WEAK RETURNS LIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS. NO
OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS N CENTRAL MN AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SMOKE BEGINNING TO REDUCE VSBY IN THE DVL
AREA AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS STILL DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING OUT AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN PICKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FIRST LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IMPACTING OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
80S WITH 60S DEW POINTS...BRINGING SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR OF
2500 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS
IMPROVED TO 40-45KTS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA. THE HRRR HAS STORMS NOT REDEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR 23Z...BY
WHICH POINT THE FRONT IS NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. THINK THIS IS A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE CONTINUES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MOSTLY
SHOWERS AS SHOWALTERS BECOME POSITIVE IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINK DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ONLY
A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT THINK THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT THERE
COULD BE A RETURN TO SMOKE IN THE AIR AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNDER WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE 70S. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. CURRENTLY THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC TROUGH LOOK QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
STILL FOR WEDNESDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER CONVECTION ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE DRY
AND WARMER AS OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONFINED T MENTION TO BJI AS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES BEHIND COLD
FRONT. K INTO THE DVL AREA AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. DID NOT
GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY...BUT DID CREATE A MUCH TIGHTER POP
GRADIENT. WE ALSO LIMITED THE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES EVEN
MORE...WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HELD ONTO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE RAP13 SHOWS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.
SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
830 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.
SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
628 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS N CENTRAL MN AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SMOKE BEGINNING TO REDUCE VSBY IN THE DVL
AREA AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS STILL DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING OUT AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN PICKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FIRST LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IMPACTING OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
80S WITH 60S DEW POINTS...BRINGING SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR OF
2500 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS
IMPROVED TO 40-45KTS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA. THE HRRR HAS STORMS NOT REDEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR 23Z...BY
WHICH POINT THE FRONT IS NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. THINK THIS IS A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE CONTINUES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MOSTLY
SHOWERS AS SHOWALTERS BECOME POSITIVE IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINK DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ONLY
A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT THINK THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT THERE
COULD BE A RETURN TO SMOKE IN THE AIR AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNDER WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE 70S. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. CURRENTLY THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC TROUGH LOOK QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
STILL FOR WEDNESDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER CONVECTION ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE DRY
AND WARMER AS OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONFINED T MENTION TO BJI AS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES BEHIND COLD
FRONT. K INTO THE DVL AREA AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FPR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHERWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE FROM DISTANT FIRES WILL PARTIALLY
DISPERSE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW...WITH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGHHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
NORTHEASTERN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND ARE POSSIBLE ALG THE RRV AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
DIMINISHING CIN AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES. LATEST ITERATION OF
THE HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MID TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE OVER
THE NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
132 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN...IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...AND THAT IS
WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE NOTE
IS THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN KLAMATH FALLS TODAY
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
SISKIYOU...SOUTHERN KLAMATH...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND MODOC COUNTIES
FROM ABOUT 4PM-8PM.
WE ARE MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS IS TYPICAL...ITS NOT A CUT
AND DRY SITUATION FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WATCH IS FOUND AT RFWMFR...AND PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH A
GENERALLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TODAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN IMPACT-BASED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ROGUE...SHASTA...SCOTT...KLAMATH RIVER...AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST COOLING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...THEN BURN BACK TO THE COAST MID-MORNING SUNDAY. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...GENERALLY FROM
THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON`S EAST SIDE.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF MEDICINE LAKE AND NORTH OF SUMMER
LAKE. THIS, TAKEN WITH THE MODEL INSTABILITY AND THE TRACKING OF
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH, WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY, EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF
INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD ALSO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW STARTS, INITIAL
ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE REASONS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
DURING THE DAY, AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL AGENCIES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/BPN/JRS/SBN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1219 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN...IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...AND THAT IS
WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE NOTE
IS THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN KLAMATH FALLS TODAY
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
SISKIYOU...SOUTHERN KLAMATH...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND MODOC COUNTIES
FROM ABOUT 4PM-8PM.
WE ARE MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS IS TYPICAL...ITS NOT A CUT
AND DRY SITUATION FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WATCH IS FOUND AT RFWMFR...AND PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH A
GENERALLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TODAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN IMPACT-BASED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ROGUE...SHASTA...SCOTT...KLAMATH RIVER...AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST COOLING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...THEN BURN BACK TO THE COAST MID-MORNING SUNDAY. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...GENERALLY FROM
THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON`S EAST SIDE.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF MEDICINE LAKE AND NORTH OF SUMMER
LAKE. THIS, TAKEN WITH THE MODEL INSTABILITY AND THE TRACKING OF
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH, WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY, EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF
INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD ALSO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW STARTS, INITIAL
ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE REASONS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
DURING THE DAY, AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL AGENCIES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/BPN/JRS/SBN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
842 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN...IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...AND THAT IS
WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE NOTE
IS THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN KLAMATH FALLS TODAY
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
SISKIYOU...SOUTHERN KLAMATH...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND MODOC COUNTIES
FROM ABOUT 4PM-8PM.
WE ARE MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS IS TYPICAL...ITS NOT A CUT
AND DRY SITUATION FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WATCH IS FOUND AT RFWMFR...AND PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH A
GENERALLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TODAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN IMPACT-BASED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ROGUEUTHE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST COOLING FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD WILL BURN OFF TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON`S EAST SIDE.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF MEDICINE LAKE AND NORTH OF SUMMER
LAKE. THIS, TAKEN WITH THE MODEL INSTABILITY AND THE TRACKING OF
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH, WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY, EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF
INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW
STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR
THESE REASONS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS DURING THE DAY, AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL
AGENCIES.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THAT WE ARE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN WASHINGTON STATE. THIS HAS IN A SENSE LEAVES US IN A COL
WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SINCE MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA.
TODAY WON`T BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE UP. THE NAM SHOWS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING.
THEREFORE THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. MODELS SHOW
WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE
DIRECTION. THE GFS IS SOUTHERLY WHILE THE NAM IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.
THE NAM SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH INTO MODOC...KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT, BUT WE`LL BE LOSING DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. OF NOTE, THE GFS SHOWS MORE
QPF IN NORTHERN CAL AND SOUTHWEST OREGON, BUT THERE`S NO TRIGGER
AND IT`S FAIRLY DRY AT THE MID LEVELS, SO FIND THIS SOLUTION
SUSPECT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING, THEREFORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST.
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
AND ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PATTERN OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVING INLAND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGHINESS THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ORZ621-623.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ282.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/MAP/SBN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SO FAR TIMING IS HOLDING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD NOW ENTERING MY EASTERN ZONES. WE
WILL SEE SLOW DRYING AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST.
THE HRRR STILL FORMS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ON THE EDGE OF THE
MORE SOLID CLOUDS IN AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MODEST
INSTABILITY.
FROM EARLIER...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.
A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.
IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.
LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PA IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS OF MID MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1004 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THE DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIP MOVES/ROTATES OFF TO THE N. STILL A MINOR CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER SOME PARTS OF THE AREA...LIKE EXTREME NE GEORGIA AND THE
NW PIEDMONT OF NC...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MAIN
CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS IN SOME THE PLACES WHERE RAIN FINALLY
MOVED THRU IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE
WATCH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS BAND OF TSRA SEEN ON RADAR BETWEEN
KCLT AND KCAE. THINK THE MOVEMENT NNE WILL CARRY IT TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AND THUS LIGHTNING IS NOT LIKELY VICINITY OF KCLT...BUT
WILL BE READY TO AMEND IF THAT THINKING CHANGES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. INSTEAD...WILL KEEP A VCSH IN PLACE THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. THINK LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN SCT AS LONG AS THE PRECIP BAND SLIPS EAST...WHILE WIND
REMAINS STEADY FROM THE S. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...AS THE RUC INDICATES MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THINK AT THIS POINT THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT
FAVOR AS MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO ADVECT IN. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WIND TO COME AROUND LIGHT SW WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN. MODELS NOT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES AWAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE AS MID/UPPER LEVELS LOOK UNFAVORABLE...SO WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH A VCSH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AROUND DAYBREAK...IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...MAINLY AT KAVL/KAND/KHKY. SHOWER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
GREAT AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN SW ON MONDAY...EXCEPT LIGHT NW
AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT MED 69% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 98% MED 74%
KHKY LOW 58% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 74% MED 71% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...ALTHO ONE CONCENTRATED BAND OVER THE SC
MIDLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRUSH PAST THE WRN NC PIEDMONT ZONES.
THINK IT SAFE TO START A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP PROBABILITY. MAIN
DECISION RIGHT NOW IS WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PRECIP AMTS SEEN
IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...COMBINED WITH
DIMINISHING TREND SEEN ON KMRX/KGSP RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS LETTING
IT EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NW AND N
THRU LATE EVENING. OTHER FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD ALSO BE OUTSIDE
THE OLD WATCH...OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IF THAT BAND MOVES ACROSS.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE SOME ALTERATIONS TO TEMP TREND TO ACCT FOR
POCKETS OF RAIN COOLED AIR.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE
WATCH.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS BAND OF TSRA SEEN ON RADAR BETWEEN
KCLT AND KCAE. THINK THE MOVEMENT NNE WILL CARRY IT TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AND THUS LIGHTNING IS NOT LIKELY VICINITY OF KCLT...BUT
WILL BE READY TO AMEND IF THAT THINKING CHANGES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. INSTEAD...WILL KEEP A VCSH IN PLACE THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. THINK LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN SCT AS LONG AS THE PRECIP BAND SLIPS EAST...WHILE WIND
REMAINS STEADY FROM THE S. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...AS THE RUC INDICATES MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THINK AT THIS POINT THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT
FAVOR AS MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO ADVECT IN. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WIND TO COME AROUND LIGHT SW WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN. MODELS NOT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES AWAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE AS MID/UPPER LEVELS LOOK UNFAVORABLE...SO WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH A VCSH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AROUND DAYBREAK...IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...MAINLY AT KAVL/KAND/KHKY. SHOWER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
GREAT AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN SW ON MONDAY...EXCEPT LIGHT NW
AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 87% HIGH 97% HIGH 94% HIGH 83%
KHKY MED 74% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 80% MED 74% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
650 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THERE IS STILL AN EASY TO RECOGNIZE FAIRLY STRONG SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH SPC DEPICTION OF POTENTIAL AND GENERAL
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE
SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. SOME OF
THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING FAIRLY EARLY
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE CASE OF THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR THIS LOOKS TO BE DONE TOO EARLY AND TOO FAR
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MODERATE YET STILL
INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
BY THE WAY FOR THE TIME BEING HAS PROGRESSED SOMEWHAT FASTER
TOWARD THE AREA THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. I WOULD EXPECT A
SLOWDOWN DUE TO WAVE ACTION WHICH PROBABLY ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPICTED STRONGLY ON THE MODELS.
IN SHORT...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND THE SEVERE
THREAT FROM LATE EVENING ON...AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST...BUT WE
WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS THE END
OF THE AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SCATTERED
WINDS AND HAIL EARLY AND ESPECIALLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS
ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN...CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED QPF AND CURRENT FFG DO NOT SHOW A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE NORTHEAST APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION BEHAVES.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND REACH
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER MONDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WITH THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST...WITH 70
OR SO LOWS SOUTHEAST.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE COOL AND DRY REGIME WILL
HAVE TAKEN OVER AND THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD
HAVE ENDED. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD AND GET MARGINALLY
BREEZY...WHILE TEMPERATURES HANG IN THE 70S AND SKIES BRIGHTEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. COOL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID-LVL FLOW. THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASING HUMIDITY AND THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF LOW-
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES IN
DOUBT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FORECAST HOLDS
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...AND WE MAY BE PUSHING 90S IN
MANY AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODS MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THE STORMS. STRONGEST CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
KHON...BUT COULD IMPACT KFSD AND/OR KSUX WITH STRONG WINDS AFTER
06Z. TAMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 06/12Z...THOUGH PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AFTER
06/18Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
131 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
THE COASTAL PRAIRIES CONVECTION HAS SO FAR STEERED CLEAR OF I-35
TAF SITES TO THE EAST WHERE HIGHER PWAT VALUES PERSIST. HRRR RUNS
SHOW DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO REACH THE I-35 TERMINALS
WITH EACH RUN...SO WILL CONITNUE TO EXCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE TAF CONSIDERATIONS ARE SIMPLY A
REFLECTION OF PERSISTENCE ON WINDS AND CIGS. IFR CIGS SHOULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT THE VSBYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER WITH NO BR MENTIONED IN TODAYS TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
AVIATION...
WE START WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM
TO LOWER TO IFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. VFR WILL RETURN BY AROUND NOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSRA IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING
A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO ALLOW FOR A
SEABREEZE. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SEABREEZE WILL LIFT THE MOISTURE
TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND A GUSTY DOWNDRAFT
WIND. HAVE LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS AS
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THEM. HOWEVER...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO
ALONG I-35 AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS THERE. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO BUILDS A LITTLE TO THE EAST DRYING THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY
FROM ABOVE. THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE PWS NEAR 1.7 INCHES REMAIN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK INTO MEXICO
BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER WESTERN
TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS NOTED IN THE ECMWF...GEM AND
NAM BRINGING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR WESTERN AREAS WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH NORTH WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. HAVE FAVORED
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO LOWER PECOS VALLEY. EARLIER RUNS OF
SOME MODELS SHOWED QPF FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE CAPS THE
AIRMASS FURTHER EAST. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
BY WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO
BEGIN A PROCESS OF BUILDING OVER TEXAS WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRYING AIRMASS WILL PREVENT RAIN. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP 100S OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 76 92 76 92 / 10 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 74 91 76 92 / 10 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 90 75 91 / 10 - 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 90 75 91 / 10 - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 76 93 76 95 / 10 - 10 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 90 76 91 / 10 - 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 90 75 92 / 10 - 10 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 90 76 92 / 10 - 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 75 91 77 91 / 20 - 20 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 76 91 76 92 / 10 - 10 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 76 91 76 92 / 10 - 10 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE. SCT DECK AT ALL TERMINALS
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AFTN WITH ANY CONVECTION WELL NE OF KCDS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS MVFR CIGS SOUTH AND EAST OF KLBB WITH VEERING WINDS SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE NOTED WEST OF THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SAID FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE TRANSLATED
TO ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY SAGGING
SWWRD WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS
INDICATIVE BY TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED ONE-HOURLY RAIN RATES FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO NEAR ONE INCH UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIEST CORES EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREQUENCY OF
LIGHTNING DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN STRENGTH
VIA RADAR ANALYSIS HAVE SINCE CAUSED THE RAINFALL RATES TO DECLINE.
HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE
WHILST PROPAGATING TO ACROSS ERN NM BY AOA 10Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...THUS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE STORMS BEING MAINTAINED MORE SO
ACROSS CNTRL NM NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS
OF A LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK COUPLED WITH A DECENT 250 MB JET STREAK /50 KTS OR
SO/ WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
KJ/KG ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
/POSSIBLY NEARING STRONG LEVELS/ THAT COULD TRY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. SRLY SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /15 KTS OR SO/ COURTESY OF THE
NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALL IN ALL...THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE COMPRISED OF LOW /ALBEIT NON-
ZERO/ RAIN CHANCES...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEASONAL WARMTH EXPECTED /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. TONIGHT...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR...AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SW
TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT TO OBSERVE FIREWORKS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MOISTENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS HAVE MOSTLY DISAPPEARED SUNDAY...WHILE
REMAINING A BIT MIXED SUNDAY NIGHT AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS
TO SPREAD IN. BY MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH BY THEN ALIGNS WITH SOLID PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
FROM ALL SOLUTIONS THOUGH DIFFERENT FOCUS AREAS. MORE SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES FACTOR IN EARLY TUESDAY AS WRF/NAM REMAINS SHARPEST
IF NOT EVEN CLOSED OFF AT H500 MB AND THUS ALSO WETTEST. BUT HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR VALID. UPPER
TROUGH WILL STEER OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THOUGH WE MAY SEE ANOTHER RIPPLE
OR TWO WITH ENOUGH ENERGY FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER. BETTER
AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ON A SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORMS EXCEPT NEAR THE
MONSOON FLOW WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH TO OUR WEST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL MOSTLY VALID THEREFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER MID WEEK AND WARMER AFTERWARDS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 91 67 87 / 10 10 20 50
TULIA 67 91 70 87 / 10 10 20 40
PLAINVIEW 67 90 70 87 / 10 10 20 40
LEVELLAND 67 92 71 91 / 10 10 20 40
LUBBOCK 68 92 71 90 / 10 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 66 92 70 92 / 10 10 20 30
BROWNFIELD 68 92 70 91 / 10 10 20 30
CHILDRESS 72 95 74 93 / 10 0 20 30
SPUR 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will continue at the northern terminals through the
TAF period. Stratus forming over the southern half of West Central
Texas will lower ceilings at the southern terminals to MVFR
beginning around 08Z at KJCT and an hour or so later at the
remaining southern terminals. Ceilings are not expected to
improve to VFR during the remainder TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the period, as
mid and high level cloudiness stream across the area. There is a
little MVFR cigs other the higher clouds that may affect the
southern terminals, but it would very brief if it does. Otherwise,
south winds of 5 to 15 knots will continue.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Fairly quiet July 4th across West Central Texas. We are a little
more concerned about the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms across the Big Country along and north of I-20 this
afternoon. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF both show isolated activity
developing as far south as Abilene and Sweetwater and even
Brownwood, but have held off on bringing the PoP chances this far
south quite yet. If course, these models also show convection
ongoing now where there is not anything ongoing, so initialization
is poor this morning. Will bring a mention back into the northern
Big Country however, roughly north of a Hamlin to Albany line. Will
need to watch the area farther south however as the day goes by.
Otherwise, lots of mid and high cloudiness will continue to stream
across the area. This will keep temperatures pretty close to where
they were yesterday.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday and Sunday Night)
The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for
convective development. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(Monday through Wednesday)
There will be a chance of rain across much of West Central Texas for
the early to middle part of the week. The combination of disturbances in
the upper level west-northwest flow, a surface boundary and some
instability will bring a few rounds of thunderstorms to the area.
The ECWMF model is the heaviest with the QPF amounts and the GFS and
CMC is drier. Going with chance Pops across much of the area, with
likely Pops across the northern Big Country during the Tuesday
daytime hours. However, have kept Kimble, Mason and San Saba
counties dry due to being closer to the high pressure ridge axis
aloft.
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
A return to a dry forecast as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s with
lows 70 to 75.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 74 93 74 92 73 / 10 10 10 10 40
San Angelo 72 92 73 93 73 / 5 10 10 10 20
Junction 73 90 73 91 74 / 5 10 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
635 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the period, as
mid and high level cloudiness stream across the area. There is a
little MVFR cigs other the higher clouds that may affect the
southern terminals, but it would very brief if it does. Otherwise,
south winds of 5 to 15 knots will continue.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Fairly quiet July 4th across West Central Texas. We are a little
more concerned about the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms across the Big Country along and north of I-20 this
afternoon. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF both show isolated activity
developing as far south as Abilene and Sweetwater and even
Brownwood, but have held off on bringing the PoP chances this far
south quite yet. If course, these models also show convection
ongoing now where there is not anything ongoing, so initialization
is poor this morning. Will bring a mention back into the northern
Big Country however, roughly north of a Hamlin to Albany line. Will
need to watch the area farther south however as the day goes by.
Otherwise, lots of mid and high cloudiness will continue to stream
across the area. This will keep temperatures pretty close to where
they were yesterday.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday and Sunday Night)
The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for
convective development. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(Monday through Wednesday)
There will be a chance of rain across much of West Central Texas for
the early to middle part of the week. The combination of disturbances in
the upper level west-northwest flow, a surface boundary and some
instability will bring a few rounds of thunderstorms to the area.
The ECWMF model is the heaviest with the QPF amounts and the GFS and
CMC is drier. Going with chance Pops across much of the area, with
likely Pops across the northern Big Country during the Tuesday
daytime hours. However, have kept Kimble, Mason and San Saba
counties dry due to being closer to the high pressure ridge axis
aloft.
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
A return to a dry forecast as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s with
lows 70 to 75.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 92 74 93 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 91 72 92 73 93 / 10 5 10 10 10
Junction 90 73 90 73 91 / 10 5 10 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AT 11-15 KTS...AND DECLINE TO 10 KTS OR LESS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. BKN VFR DECKS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
RETURN TO SCT-BKN BY THIS EVENING. SLIM CHANCES OF -SHRA/-TSRA
DEVELOPING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY
AT KCDS WHERE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE NEARBY. HAVE ELECTED
TO NOT INSERT A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE
AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE NOTED WEST OF THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SAID FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE TRANSLATED
TO ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY SAGGING
SWWRD WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS
INDICATIVE BY TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED ONE-HOURLY RAIN RATES FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO NEAR ONE INCH UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIEST CORES EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREQUENCY OF
LIGHTNING DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN STRENGTH
VIA RADAR ANALYSIS HAVE SINCE CAUSED THE RAINFALL RATES TO DECLINE.
HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE
WHILST PROPAGATING TO ACROSS ERN NM BY AOA 10Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...THUS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE STORMS BEING MAINTAINED MORE SO
ACROSS CNTRL NM NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS
OF A LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK COUPLED WITH A DECENT 250 MB JET STREAK /50 KTS OR
SO/ WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
KJ/KG ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
/POSSIBLY NEARING STRONG LEVELS/ THAT COULD TRY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. SRLY SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /15 KTS OR SO/ COURTESY OF THE
NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALL IN ALL...THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE COMPRISED OF LOW /ALBEIT NON-
ZERO/ RAIN CHANCES...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEASONAL WARMTH EXPECTED /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. TONIGHT...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR...AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SW
TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT TO OBSERVE FIREWORKS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MOISTENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS HAVE MOSTLY DISAPPEARED SUNDAY...WHILE
REMAINING A BIT MIXED SUNDAY NIGHT AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS
TO SPREAD IN. BY MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH BY THEN ALIGNS WITH SOLID PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
FROM ALL SOLUTIONS THOUGH DIFFERENT FOCUS AREAS. MORE SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES FACTOR IN EARLY TUESDAY AS WRF/NAM REMAINS SHARPEST
IF NOT EVEN CLOSED OFF AT H500 MB AND THUS ALSO WETTEST. BUT HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR VALID. UPPER
TROUGH WILL STEER OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THOUGH WE MAY SEE ANOTHER RIPPLE
OR TWO WITH ENOUGH ENERGY FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER. BETTER
AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ON A SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORMS EXCEPT NEAR THE
MONSOON FLOW WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH TO OUR WEST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL MOSTLY VALID THEREFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER MID WEEK AND WARMER AFTERWARDS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 65 91 67 / 10 10 10 20
TULIA 89 67 91 70 / 10 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 88 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 89 67 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 89 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 88 66 92 70 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 89 68 92 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 93 72 95 74 / 20 10 0 20
SPUR 91 70 91 71 / 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 93 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPRISED OF UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE NOTED WEST OF THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THE SAID FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH INITIATED
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE TRANSLATED
TO ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY SAGGING
SWWRD WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS
INDICATIVE BY TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED ONE-HOURLY RAIN RATES FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO NEAR ONE INCH UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIEST CORES EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREQUENCY OF
LIGHTNING DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN STRENGTH
VIA RADAR ANALYSIS HAVE SINCE CAUSED THE RAINFALL RATES TO DECLINE.
HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE
WHILST PROPAGATING TO ACROSS ERN NM BY AOA 10Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWRD TO ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...THUS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE STORMS BEING MAINTAINED MORE SO
ACROSS CNTRL NM NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS
OF A LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN
PANHANDLES/WRN OK COUPLED WITH A DECENT 250 MB JET STREAK /50 KTS OR
SO/ WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1.0-1.5
KJ/KG ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
/POSSIBLY NEARING STRONG LEVELS/ THAT COULD TRY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. SRLY SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN /15 KTS OR SO/ COURTESY OF THE
NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING A BIT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALL IN ALL...THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE COMPRISED OF LOW /ALBEIT NON-
ZERO/ RAIN CHANCES...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEASONAL WARMTH EXPECTED /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. TONIGHT...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR...AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SW
TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT TO OBSERVE FIREWORKS.
.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MOISTENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS HAVE MOSTLY DISAPPEARED SUNDAY...WHILE
REMAINING A BIT MIXED SUNDAY NIGHT AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS
TO SPREAD IN. BY MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH BY THEN ALIGNS WITH SOLID PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
FROM ALL SOLUTIONS THOUGH DIFFERENT FOCUS AREAS. MORE SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES FACTOR IN EARLY TUESDAY AS WRF/NAM REMAINS SHARPEST
IF NOT EVEN CLOSED OFF AT H500 MB AND THUS ALSO WETTEST. BUT HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR VALID. UPPER
TROUGH WILL STEER OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THOUGH WE MAY SEE ANOTHER RIPPLE
OR TWO WITH ENOUGH ENERGY FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER. BETTER
AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ON A SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORMS EXCEPT NEAR THE
MONSOON FLOW WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH TO OUR WEST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL MOSTLY VALID THEREFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER MID WEEK AND WARMER AFTERWARDS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 65 91 67 / 10 10 10 20
TULIA 89 67 91 70 / 10 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 88 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 89 67 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 89 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 88 66 92 70 / 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 89 68 92 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 93 72 95 74 / 20 10 0 20
SPUR 91 70 91 71 / 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 93 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
407 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Fairly quiet July 4th across West Central Texas. We are a little
more concerned about the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms across the Big Country along and north of I-20 this
afternoon. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF both show isolated activity
developing as far south as Abilene and Sweetwater and even
Brownwood, but have held off on bringing the PoP chances this far
south quite yet. If course, these models also show convection
ongoing now where there is not anything ongoing, so initialization
is poor this morning. Will bring a mention back into the northern
Big Country however, roughly north of a Hamlin to Albany line. Will
need to watch the area farther south however as the day goes by.
Otherwise, lots of mid and high cloudiness will continue to stream
across the area. This will keep temperatures pretty close to where
they were yesterday.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday and Sunday Night)
The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for
convective development. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(Monday through Wednesday)
There will be a chance of rain across much of West Central Texas for
the early to middle part of the week. The combination of disturbances in
the upper level west-northwest flow, a surface boundary and some
instability will bring a few rounds of thunderstorms to the area.
The ECWMF model is the heaviest with the QPF amounts and the GFS and
CMC is drier. Going with chance Pops across much of the area, with
likely Pops across the northern Big Country during the Tuesday
daytime hours. However, have kept Kimble, Mason and San Saba
counties dry due to being closer to the high pressure ridge axis
aloft.
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
A return to a dry forecast as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s with
lows 70 to 75.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 92 74 93 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 91 72 92 73 93 / 10 5 10 10 10
Junction 90 73 90 73 91 / 10 5 10 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.
THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
SUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.
THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.
A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.
WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLING SOMEWHAT...AND EVEN THOUGH SOME TURBULENT MIXING JUST
ABOVE MODEST NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR
AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
FROM STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA BACK TO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE FULL 00Z DATA SET TO SEE
IF THERE WILL BE A NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL
AWAIT A LOOK AT COMPLETE 00Z DATA SET TO SEE IF THERE IS A NEED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL BAND IN THE 06Z TAFS. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1000 FT CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL AWAIT FULL DATA SET TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST TREND
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5
MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.
&&
.BEACHES...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR THE BEACHES OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.
STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF. GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD. WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS. TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.
MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.
SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT. EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE. BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER. ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.
DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT. HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
$$
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION...PC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY
MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL
POPS. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY
MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
PC
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE THROUGH 18Z AND
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS THRU THE AFTN. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...ADDING A MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY. RECENT
MODIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO MEASURE THE LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
OVER THE WATER DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVE.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VERY WEAK 700 MB COOLING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK WARMING BY
TONIGHT. 700 MB DRYING BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 11 CELSIUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE TO 3 KM VALUES OF 8
CELSIUS/KM AND AROUND 9.7 FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. HOWEVER THE
MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 5.9
CELSIUS/KM...WITH A RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 700 TO 600 MB.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
/COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH
MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING
INLAND DURING THE DAY EAST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY TODAY. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO
AROUND 800 JOULES/KG. THE MESO MODELS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS KEYING MORE ON THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ASIDE FROM THE QUICKER GFS...MODELS HAVE SLOWED A BIT WITH THE TIMING
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING. SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS GOING
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. MODEL 925 MB
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO WENT WITH MID TO EVEN
UPPER 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS
GOING AT TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS
FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN LOW AREAS ENDING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN...SO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER TO CONTINUE FROM THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN
WILDFIRES.
MARINE...
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
RISE SLOWLY SO FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VERY WEAK 700 MB COOLING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK WARMING BY
TONIGHT. 700 MB DRYING BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 11 CELSIUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE TO 3 KM VALUES OF 8
CELSIUS/KM AND AROUND 9.7 FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. HOWEVER THE
MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 5.9
CELSIUS/KM...WITH A RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 700 TO 600 MB.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
/COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH
MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING
INLAND DURING THE DAY EAST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY TODAY. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO
AROUND 800 JOULES/KG. THE MESO MODELS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS KEYING MORE ON THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS.
.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ASIDE FROM THE QUICKER GFS...MODELS HAVE SLOWED A BIT WITH THE TIMING
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING. SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS GOING
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. MODEL 925 MB
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO WENT WITH MID TO EVEN
UPPER 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS
GOING AT TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS
FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN LOW AREAS ENDING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN...SO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER TO CONTINUE FROM THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN
WILDFIRES.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
RISE SLOWLY SO FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
407 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FOR MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A STORM TRIED TO INTENSIFY A
FEW HOURS AGO AS IT MOVED OFF THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE TOWARD
WHEATLAND...HOWEVER IT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT
THE STORMS WILL BE AS STRONG TODAY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG TO THE
EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS...SO THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME SVR POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
DAWES COUNTY BY 22Z THAT QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
PLATTES CWA. HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A
NICE EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA)
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER WYOMING. THERE IS GOOD MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE AFTN...WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER A BIT
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KTS WILL LIKELY BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOW...HOWEVER IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES COOLER. KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FIRST WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE
ON TUESDAY AND WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS OF LOW TO MID 50S INTO EASTERN
PLAINS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...WITH A FEW STORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
BECOME STRONG. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH JET DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER WYOMING AS THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS
LOOKING TO BE MORE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS
COULD SPIKE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S WITH A FEW
90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOULD STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY COULD
LIMIT CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO KAIA AND KCDR. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND COOLS THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...FRONT TO BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING
OVER 120-160% OF NORMAL...MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE POTENTIAL FLOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
HELPING TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SO AS DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THROUGH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
CO...THIS WILL SEND A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS. FORCING APPEARS A BIT STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SUSPECT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SPREAD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN A
GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CO WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30-
35 MPH AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GFS STILL THE MORE HEAVY HANDED OF THE MODELS. MAJORITY
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HARD TO ARGUE WITH KEEPING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE MONSOON
PLUME OUT WEST...AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/-
TSRA ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. MAJORITY OF THE
PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM/MCS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD START TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE EAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS NV
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP WATERS FALL OFF A BIT IN BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...SO PERHAPS
A LITTLE LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OUT THAT WAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.
DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS...SO ASSUMING WE CAN
REALIZE THE INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO
STRONG STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...THEN STRONGER CONVECTION MAY STAY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD OVER STABLE
AIRMASS...AND DIMINISHING. VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SCENARIO.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH PLAINS LOOKING
MORE CAPPED. MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25. BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. -KT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT MOST
PRECIP TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA FARTHER EAST. ON TUESDAY...MUCH THE SAME SET-UP
AS MONDAY...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE AGAIN LACK OF INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS WILL MEAN
ONLY SOME WEAK CONVECTION EAST OF I-25. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP BACK
UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE MAXES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WED AND
THU...WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW STAYS S-SW AS UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND UPPER HIGH IS FAIRLY FAR EAST OVER THE GULF
COAST. INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON AS CAPES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1000 J/KG...AND WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES BOTH WED/THU. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF
USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA CYCLE AS WELL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS ALL AREAS AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW UPWARD CRAWL...WITH READINGS BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THU AFTERNOON.
FRI-SUN PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER/WARMER AS WESTERN UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND FLAT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO.
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MONSOON MOISTURE TAP WILL STAY SUPPRESSED TO
OUR SOUTH...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S/90S LOWER ELEVATIONS...NOT TOO HOT BY MID
JULY STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE VCNTY
OF KCOS AND KPUB LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED...MAY HELP KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS
FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
432 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.
THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY STAYING WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. PATCHY
FOG WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVING A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE TERMINALS IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND TIMING. AM MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD FIRST IMPACT RFD BY LATE
MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH RFD...BUT SHOULD ALSO OBSERVE A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES. BEST FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY PRECIP AS WELL AS TIMING AND DURATION. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP IN THE TAFS WITH RFD HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE TO OBSERVE IT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE
REMAINING TERMINALS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AT THIS TIME...AS SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING THIS PRECIP IN
EARLIER. OTHER CHALLENGES WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION LIKELY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
431 AM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO 30KT ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DID
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY
LATER THAN THE START TIME TO THE ADVISORY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SOME SLIGHTLY VARIABILITY
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DO LOOK
LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ONCE
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
353 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.
THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY STAYING WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. PATCHY
FOG WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVING A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE TERMINALS IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND TIMING. AM MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD FIRST IMPACT RFD BY LATE
MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH RFD...BUT SHOULD ALSO OBSERVE A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES. BEST FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY PRECIP AS WELL AS TIMING AND DURATION. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP IN THE TAFS WITH RFD HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE TO OBSERVE IT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE
REMAINING TERMINALS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AT THIS TIME...AS SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING THIS PRECIP IN
EARLIER. OTHER CHALLENGES WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION LIKELY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.
THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
309 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.
THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY STAYING WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. PATCHY
FOG WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVING A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE TERMINALS IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND TIMING. AM MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD FIRST IMPACT RFD BY LATE
MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH RFD...BUT SHOULD ALSO OBSERVE A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES. BEST FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY PRECIP AS WELL AS TIMING AND DURATION. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP IN THE TAFS WITH RFD HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE TO OBSERVE IT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE
REMAINING TERMINALS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AT THIS TIME...AS SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING THIS PRECIP IN
EARLIER. OTHER CHALLENGES WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION LIKELY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM CDT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN
DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
MOVE OVER THE LAKE.
THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR
THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY
COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN
700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE
NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
...UPDATED HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.
CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 60 78 57 / 70 70 20 10
GCK 80 60 79 57 / 50 40 10 10
EHA 81 59 78 60 / 50 50 20 20
LBL 85 62 78 59 / 70 60 20 20
HYS 81 59 78 56 / 60 50 10 10
P28 90 64 76 61 / 90 80 50 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.
CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 62 78 58 / 80 60 10 10
GCK 84 61 80 58 / 60 20 10 10
EHA 80 61 79 60 / 40 20 10 20
LBL 85 64 78 60 / 40 20 10 10
HYS 82 60 79 56 / 70 30 10 10
P28 90 64 78 62 / 80 90 40 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.
BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.
ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.AVIATION...RADARS AND HRRR MODEL ARE QUIET TNITE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD BE BUILDING WHILE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE GULF CONTINUES BELOW
THE INVERSION. THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LCH. MONDAY
EVENING BOTH BPT AND LCH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.
A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 93 74 92 / 20 10 10 20
LCH 77 91 78 91 / 10 10 10 20
LFT 74 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 20
BPT 78 91 78 91 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.
PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.
HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.
NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.
AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.
TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.
MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.
HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.
NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.
TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.
MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.
MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.
THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.
AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FFA EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL INTO WESTERN WI
AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM. SOME COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE
NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH METRO...WITH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.
GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WITH CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CORES. A LARGER...ALBEIT LIGHTER AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS LINE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AS WINDS BECOME NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KMSP...SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN AROUND 06Z WITH THE HEAVIEST ARRIVING
BETWEEN 07-10Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
023>025.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE EVENING LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DISSIPATING DIURNAL CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GREATER MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS BY THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE RAP THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS, THEN
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. A VERY WEAK PETURBATION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 3000-7000 FT LAYER AND ATTENDANT THERMAL AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE 07-15Z TIME
FRAME. I HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS IN MIND. OTHERWISE MILDER TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT AND A
RATHER WARM DAY IS ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY. THE MODELS NOW ALL HAVE
A BIT SLOWER PROGRESS WITH THE COLD FRONT, NOT ENTERING FAR
NORTHWEST MO UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THIS SLOWER SPEED
AND LESSER CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST WAA REGIME, I EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 90. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE BROAD WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
GLASS
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET AND STORMY
PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI-DAY AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY
FOCUS WITH THE MODELS HAVING SOME GROWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME
FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND WHERE THE FRONT MAY LIE. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST AGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD PUSH EARLY ON THEN WAVERS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DON`T MOVE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN WAVER IT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WAVES MOVE ALONG IT, FINALLY
PUSHING NORTH OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE REGION SPANNING
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND A BROAD REGION OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ONCE WE CAN PIN DOWN THE REGION A BIT BETTER.
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
EXPECT VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER BETWEEN 4-6SM FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. I THINK THERE`S TOO MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TO
SUPPORT FOG MUCH THICKER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...NOTICED THAT KUNO
CAME IN WITH AN 800FT CEILING AT 0435Z. EXPECT THESE IFR CEILINGS
TO SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT
REALLY SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET BEFORE
SUNRISE, BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ARE DEFINITELY UNDER
THE GUN. MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE TOO INTERESTED IN
SPREADING THE CEILINGS AS FAR NORTH AS I-70, BUT I CAN`T RULE IT
OUT. STRATUS AND FOG/HAZE SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 1-3 HOURS OF
SUNRISE. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE WIDE-SPREAD NATURE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
REMAINDER OF MONDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, MOST
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
EVENING...MOSTLY OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
EXPECT VSBY AT LAMBERT TO WAVER BETWEEN 5-6SM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STRATUS WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY MOVE UP TO OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINAL BY SUNRISE, BUT THE CHANCE THIS WILL HAPPEN DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT A CEILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING...BUT LIKE THE STRATUS IT LOOKS LIKE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BECOMING GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY 30% AT BEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE`S ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
310 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LOW...WAS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH NE MT.
THIS ENERGY WAS COMBINING WITH LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
SHOWERS AND SHOWED THEM INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SE MT AROUND
12Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED SATURATED LOW TO MID LAYERS FROM KBIL S
AND E THIS MORNING...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND KBIL
TO CHANCE POPS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY E AND OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...WHERE THE BEST LIFT FROM THE WAVE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT
STRATUS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...THEN
SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED-V IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO JUST
BELOW 700 MB. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE SREF. LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SMOKE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BASED ON THE ABOVE.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEPT SMOKE IN THE GRIDS DUE TO THE CONTINUED
LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASED MIXING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE SE ZONES. SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A STRONG WAVE
MOVING E THROUGH WY. THE WY WAVE WILL HELP PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
N INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS...HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...INVERTED TROUGH...INCREASING MOISTURE
AND THE SREF SHOWING POSSIBLY 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. SIMILAR
PATTERN PERSISTS FOR TUE NIGHT AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER S
INTO THE AREA SO INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS. BETTER MIXING ON TUE
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SHEAR AND CAPES LOOK TOO WEAK
TUE/TUE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY WARM WEATHER
AND SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IT/S DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A 500-MB LOW LIFTING OUT OF CALIFORNIA AND
SHEARING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES MONTANA. THE 00
UTC ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE LAST SEVERAL GFS SOLUTIONS BY HAVING
THAT WAVE CUT THROUGH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS DESPITE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THAT MAY INCITE A MORE BONAFIDE WARMUP
OVER SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST STORM ACTIVITY
RELEGATED TO NORTHERN MT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THOUGH ANY SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE RIDGE/S AMPLIFICATION COULD CHANGE THAT. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND SMOKE ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LIFT AND IN MANY AREAS SCATTER OUT BY 18
UTC...AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE WILL DIMINISH TOO.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EVEN
THOUGH SOME LIGHT SMOKE OR HAZE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 056/081 059/080 058/088 062/090 062/088 062/091
2/W 02/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 075 050/080 051/079 051/085 055/087 056/084 054/088
0/K 14/T 33/T 23/T 23/T 33/T 31/B
HDN 076 056/084 057/083 057/091 060/093 060/091 060/093
2/W 03/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
MLS 073 055/082 058/082 059/090 063/095 064/091 063/090
3/W 02/T 22/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
4BQ 073 055/081 057/082 058/088 063/094 063/090 062/090
4/W 03/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 070 052/077 055/079 055/085 061/093 061/089 061/087
3/W 03/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
SHR 070 052/078 053/077 054/084 056/087 056/086 056/089
3/W 13/T 42/T 22/T 23/T 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1216 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE EVENING COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH STORMS...THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CHCS FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE PROGRESSING FRONT. ONCE BOUNDARY
MOVES THRU WINDS WILL TRANSITION NORTHERLY AND INCREASE. THE
BETTER PRESSURE RISES OCCUR IN THE AFTN/EVE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES. CIGS LOOK TO
BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS BUT MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
IFR CIGS AND WILL MONITOR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE EVENING COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS A WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE TIME
STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CAN FORM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITH THE COLD FRONT/SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY.
AT 12Z...H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A BROAD TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
H7 MOISTURE WAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE H7 TROF WITH 2 TO 4 DEG H7
DEWPOINTS. 12Z H85 DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN TO 12 TO 14 DEG C ACROSS
THE STATE. MORNING CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DISSIPATED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOW HIGHEST MLCAPE TORWARD FAIRBURY AND
LINCOLN AND THE WEAKEST CAP IS IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BUILDING IN TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE SHORT-TERM HIRES MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THIS
EVENING. THE RAP AND SPC HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH CAPE/WEAK CAP AREA. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IF STORMS BREAK
THE CAP...THE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
TONIGHT...THERE IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND OMEGA WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROF. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES WITH
THESE FEATURES...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA REMAINING WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 03Z...THEN SPREAD INTO
THE REST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE COLD FRONT. THROUGH
12Z...A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG IS FORECAST. DO MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE ZONE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
MORNING...ANOTHER PUSH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN THOUGH BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT TO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND RE-GENERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN WITH THE HIGH PWATS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NAM20 EVEN HAS A RARE 3
INCH BULLSEYE FOR PWAT NEAR FNB AT 00Z MONDAY EVENING. TRAINING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AREA POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STORM MOTIONS DO DROP DOWN
TO AROUND 15KTS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH A
RIDGE AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AND PERHAPS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL CENTER AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20-30KTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1052 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL
START A TREND OF DRYING CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, GRIDS AND THUS THE
FORECAST WERE UPDATED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT TO KEEP IN THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOHAVE
COUNTY AS THE MOIST-DRY INTERFACE CONTINUES TO TOUCH OFF ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA. THIS AREA HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO SHUT DOWN AND SO IT
APPEARS THINGS HERE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DIMINISH.
FURTHER NORTH A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM NEAR MOAPA TO
PRIMM HAS PUSHED EAST GENERATING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH (LOCALLY
HIGHER) AS IT ROLLED ON THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A
RESULT, I ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ALLOW
FOR THIS ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD END IN ANOTHER HOUR SO AT MOST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR SKY
COVER ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON WHERE POPS WERE TWEAKED.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...A NICELY DEFINED MOIST-DRY INTERFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ON WATER VAPOR. WE
HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION FIRE ON THIS
MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING. THIS BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN INYO COUNTY TOWARD EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MOHAVE COUNTY. AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE ARE DONE WITH SEEING ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED NICELY. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MOHAVE
COUNTY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER TO WEAKEN ALTOGETHER IN
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THUS POPS WERE INCREASED HERE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO A LATER PERIOD TONIGHT FOR WESTERN
CLARK, SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTIES WHICH BASED ON
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK TO SEE ACTIVITY WORK ON
IN. FURTHER SOUTH, THE HRRR FORECASTS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN IN MOHAVE
COUNTY, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT LOOK ON RADAR, THIS ACTIVITY WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY GO LONGER THAN WHAT THE HRRR THINKS.
CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM EAST FROM ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SKY
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED UP FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW BUT IF ANY DO
WE COULD SEE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL REDUCED CIGS. THE BEST
TIME ON THIS WOULD BE THROUGH 08Z OR SO MONDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN THERE COULD BE A FEW SHRA AND TSRA ON MONDAY IN AND
AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY MAINLY AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 10K-15K FEET WITH LOWER BASES IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD
DECREASE GRADUALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z MONDAY. ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
BE EAST OF KTPH-KDRA-KEED LINE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR
ANY SHRA/TSRA WITH CIGS AND VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 20Z AND ENDING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z TUESDAY. FAVORED
AREAS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SHRA/TSRA MOVING
NORTHEAST. SCT-BKN CIGS MAINLY AOA 10-15K FEET WITH LOWER BASES NEAR
ANY SHRA/TSRA. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER IN AND NEAR ANY
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 120 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT SEE ANY
SPECIFIC TRIGGER FOR STORMS OTHER THAN HEATING AND TERRAIN. A DRYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST TUESDAY WITH
JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR EAST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
903 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL
START A TREND OF DRYING CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...A NICELY DEFINED MOIST-DRY INTERFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ON WATER VAPOR. WE
HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION FIRE ON THIS
MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING. THIS BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN INYO COUNTY TOWARD EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MOHAVE COUNTY. AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE ARE DONE WITH SEEING ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED NICELY. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MOHAVE
COUNTY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER TO WEAKEN ALTOGETHER IN
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THUS POPS WERE INCREASED HERE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO A LATER PERIOD TONIGHT FOR WESTERN
CLARK, SOUTHERN NYE AND SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTIES WHICH BASED ON
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK TO SEE ACTIVITY WORK ON
IN. FURTHER SOUTH, THE HRRR FORECASTS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN IN MOHAVE
COUNTY, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT LOOK ON RADAR, THIS ACTIVITY WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY GO LONGER THAN WHAT THE HRRR THINKS.
CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM EAST FROM ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE SKY
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED UP FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW BUT IF ANY DO
WE COULD SEE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL REDUCED CIGS. THE BEST
TIME ON THIS WOULD BE THROUGH 08Z OR SO MONDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN THERE COULD BE A FEW SHRA AND TSRA ON MONDAY IN AND
AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY MAINLY AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 10K-15K FEET WITH LOWER BASES IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD
DECREASE GRADUALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z MONDAY. ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
BE EAST OF KTPH-KDRA-KEED LINE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR
ANY SHRA/TSRA WITH CIGS AND VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER 20Z AND ENDING BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z TUESDAY. FAVORED
AREAS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SHRA/TSRA MOVING
NORTHEAST. SCT-BKN CIGS MAINLY AOA 10-15K FEET WITH LOWER BASES NEAR
ANY SHRA/TSRA. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER IN AND NEAR ANY
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 120 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT SEE ANY
SPECIFIC TRIGGER FOR STORMS OTHER THAN HEATING AND TERRAIN. A DRYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST TUESDAY WITH
JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR EAST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO AS WINDS ALOFT TREND
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. WDLY SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH GENERALLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATION. SFC LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AFT 06Z WITH WIND SHIFT
INTO NE NM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS AFT
06/15Z...EVENTUALLY FOCUSING TSTMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND NE/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AREAS MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AFT 06/23Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...924 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.UPDATE...
CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY EARLY AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LATEST HRRR
PROGS.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS
ON MONDAY ACROSS NE/EC NM. VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION EXISTS...BUT
IN GENERAL...STORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WOULD
PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY MEAN SLOW MOVING...TRAINING...
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES WILL ALSO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS IN
THE MTNS. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECTED A VERY BUSY DAY. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...357 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEP
RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WHILE A BIT LESS LIKELY THAN WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA. THEN ON MONDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS PROGGED TO HEAD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE AND PUSH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH AND WEST...MAKING IT AT LEAST
CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE BY WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER RISK SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING...THEN TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL...A NICE CURVE BALL THROWN AT US BY MA NATURE RENDERED
ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO NEARLY THIRD OF THE STATE TOTALLY
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...DESPITE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF AZ. DECIDED TO TRIM THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK OUT OF THE
WATCH...WHILE KEEPING IT GOING ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM SE AZ...IT APPEARS IN
PART THAT THE 2 MCV/S THAT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND THE STORM STEERING FLOW TO
W AND NW OF ABQ HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY IMPLY WEAK
RIDGING THAT HAS DEVELOPED THERE. HRRR MODEL STILL DEVELOPS PRETTY
GOOD AMT OF CONVECTION TO W OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z
AND MOVES IT INTO THE JEMEZ WHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS DECENT
CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVE GENERALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
SO SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS NOTED.
MON TO TUE PERIOD STILL LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON AND FROM HIGHLANDS
JUST EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST TO THE DIVIDE DUE LARGELY
TO ADDED MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON NIGHT...RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. KEPT THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN WX GRIDS THROUGH
MON...THOUGH EXPANDED EAST SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT IN THE EARLIER
UPDATE. WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...POPS REDUCED A BIT. BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CHANCES ALONG WITH
WHAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPING TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL INDICATED
FOR WED...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK. FOR
LATE WEEK INTO SAT THE GFS STILL BULLISH FOR A DECENT BUT SOMEWHAT
NARROWER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND W NM...MAINTAINING DECENT TO VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. ECMWF MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL
EXPANDS UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE SOONER THAN THE GFS.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A POSSIBLE
DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE AND UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS MAY THEN
ARRIVE FOR LATE WEEK.
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WILL
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINFALL BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND REFOCUS MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE DIVIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/SANDIAS AND MANZANO MTS. GUSTY CANYON WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS WELL HOWEVER PEAK SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE REGULATED BY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES AND GENERALLY GOOD OR
BETTER VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND
BEGIN A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND. THE MAIN AXIS OF STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK AND FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN NM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND BACK INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S WHILE MAX TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ512>515-523-527>535.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AS THE AREA MOVES EAST. LATEST HRRR ITERATION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION WITH TIME WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SO...LOWERED CHANCES WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST IN MONTANA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE LATER TODAY. THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES NECESSARY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES OR WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. DID NOT
GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY...BUT DID CREATE A MUCH TIGHTER POP
GRADIENT. WE ALSO LIMITED THE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES EVEN
MORE...WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HELD ONTO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE RAP13 SHOWS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.
SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 6SM OR 7SM. KBIS AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINK NIGHTTIME INVERSION
SETTING UP WILL HELP VSBYS LOWER OR REMAIN LOW AND WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT CHANGING VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING
THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TRIMMED POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NO OTHER
CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE TIP OF THE FA.
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS QUITE A BIT OF THE SE FA. ALSO REMOVED
SEVERE THREAT FROM THE FAR SE. STILL SOME WEAK RETURNS LIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS. NO
OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS N CENTRAL MN AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SMOKE BEGINNING TO REDUCE VSBY IN THE DVL
AREA AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS STILL DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING OUT AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN PICKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FIRST LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IMPACTING OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
80S WITH 60S DEW POINTS...BRINGING SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR OF
2500 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS
IMPROVED TO 40-45KTS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA. THE HRRR HAS STORMS NOT REDEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR 23Z...BY
WHICH POINT THE FRONT IS NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. THINK THIS IS A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE CONTINUES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MOSTLY
SHOWERS AS SHOWALTERS BECOME POSITIVE IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINK DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ONLY
A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT THINK THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT THERE
COULD BE A RETURN TO SMOKE IN THE AIR AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNDER WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE 70S. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. CURRENTLY THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC TROUGH LOOK QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
STILL FOR WEDNESDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER CONVECTION ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE DRY
AND WARMER AS OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
MAINTAINED HAZE MENTION IN TAFS HOWEVER TOUGH TO DISCERN COVERAGE
AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NO CIGS ANTICIPATED BY MID MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
925 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTED ACROSS THE DESCHUTES COUNTY LINE
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THESE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINED SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. SOME SMOKE WAS LINGERING OVER GRANT COUNTY AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPS THE PRESENT SHORT TERM DRY FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH
IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DROPPING THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTH OR NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR NORTH OF A MADRAS-SPRAY-LA GRANDE
LINE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVE WILD FIRES IN
PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECT SOME PATCHY SMOKE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE DAY ON MONDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHERN GRANT
COUNTY. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN
250-500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND -2 PRESENTLY. THE LATEST
19Z HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL DESCHUTES COUNTY BETWEEN NOW AND
00Z THIS EVENING...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH
AND OUT OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 04 TO 07Z THIS EVENING. THIS FITS WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND RATHER
QUIET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO MID-
50S MOUNTAINS. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER CENTRAL OREGON AS THE BAND OF CLOUDS LINGERS
OVER THIS AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
OREGON AND ESPECIALLY DESCHUTES COUNTY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST
OVER DESCHUTES COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER DESCHUTES COUNTY
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS REASON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 611 FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION). HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST...SWITCHING
THE FLOW TO NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 98-103 DEGREES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS...THIS IS ABOUT 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 77
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY
FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS AS
THE LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MUCH
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ML
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MIGRATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN CHALLENGING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN FAR SE DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 60 PERCENT THAT
STORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED WITH 10+ STRIKES IN THE DESCHUTES
NATIONAL FOREST ON MONDAY...AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA (FIRE ZONE
611). THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THE SISTERS RANGER
DISTRICT...ALTHOUGH LAL 3 IS POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL AS THE TRACK
OF THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA TURNS SOUTH. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OREGON LATE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE LOW OPENS
AND DEVELOPS A BROAD TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT STORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WISTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 64 97 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 68 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 65 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 64 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 60 99 65 99 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 57 94 58 95 / 0 10 10 10
LGD 55 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 56 95 58 98 / 0 10 10 10
DLS 68 101 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ611.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1224 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THERE IS STILL AN EASY TO RECOGNIZE FAIRLY STRONG SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH SPC DEPICTION OF POTENTIAL AND GENERAL
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE
SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. SOME OF
THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING FAIRLY EARLY
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE CASE OF THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR THIS LOOKS TO BE DONE TOO EARLY AND TOO FAR
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MODERATE YET STILL
INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
BY THE WAY FOR THE TIME BEING HAS PROGRESSED SOMEWHAT FASTER
TOWARD THE AREA THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. I WOULD EXPECT A
SLOWDOWN DUE TO WAVE ACTION WHICH PROBABLY ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPICTED STRONGLY ON THE MODELS.
IN SHORT...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND THE SEVERE
THREAT FROM LATE EVENING ON...AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST...BUT WE
WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS THE END
OF THE AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SCATTERED
WINDS AND HAIL EARLY AND ESPECIALLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS
ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN...CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED QPF AND CURRENT FFG DO NOT SHOW A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE NORTHEAST APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION BEHAVES.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND REACH
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER MONDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WITH THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST...WITH 70
OR SO LOWS SOUTHEAST.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE COOL AND DRY REGIME WILL
HAVE TAKEN OVER AND THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD
HAVE ENDED. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD AND GET MARGINALLY
BREEZY...WHILE TEMPERATURES HANG IN THE 70S AND SKIES BRIGHTEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. COOL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID-LVL FLOW. THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASING HUMIDITY AND THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF LOW-
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES IN
DOUBT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FORECAST HOLDS
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...AND WE MAY BE PUSHING 90S IN
MANY AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH 12Z. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ039-040-
050-052>070.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001-002.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WX CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE MOVE OUT OF A BENIGN WX PATTERN TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
UA RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...THOUGH IT HAS FLATTENED QUITE A BIT THANKS TO AN UA
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS MOVED ESE FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS
DISTURBANCE THAT IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT. LOOKING CLOSER TO
HOME...SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SE SFC WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE CWA PER 08Z METARS. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE FA TO TRANSLATE NWRD AOA
DAYBREAK THUS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. PER 08Z METARS...THE STRATUS DECK WAS LOCATED AT AND SOUTH
OF MENARD TX WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE N-NW. IF THIS TRAJECTORY
PERSISTS AND THE CLOUD DECK HOLDS TOGETHER...IT MAY INDEED AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND SERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING.
LATER TODAY...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE PROSPECTS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ENDURING S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID TO
INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE BY PROGGED PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50-2.15 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING /DEWPOINTS NEARING THE 70S ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK/.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN AZ WILL PROGRESS
ENE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING LEADING TO
INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE ONLY THING MISSING IS A MESOSCALE
FEATURE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND UL SUPPORT. THIS IS
WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE FRONT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE AREA TODAY...BUT THE TIMING/SPEED OF THE FRONT IS IN
QUESTION. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAS THE FRONT AFFECTING
THE NWRN ZONES BY AOA 07/00Z /AND PUSHING SEWRD WITH TIME/...WITH
SIGNS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN...WRN...AND NWRN ZONES. ON THE OTHER-HAND...HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAS THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NWRN
ZONES BY AOA 06/18Z /WHICH IS A 6 HR DIFFERENCE FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF/ BUT IS ALSO EXHIBITING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE SAME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
QUITE IMPORTANT AS IT WILL DICTATE THE ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WILL ELECT TO HOLD ON TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
FROM 06/15-18Z...AND MAINTAIN THE EXPANSION OF POPS EWRD DURING THE
06/18-00Z TIME PERIOD. AFTN SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATING STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2.0 KJ/KG ACROSS THE
NRN AND NWRN ZONES DURING THE AFTN...DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW OF THOSE STORMS TO APPROACH STRONG LEVELS
/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS/...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS AS QUICK AS WHAT
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF ARE SHOWING...AS IT COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
BIT DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER RATHER WEAK SHEAR COULD
MITIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING THRU TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH
FROM GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL TO MORE OF A LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT...AS THE UA DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WHILST
THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS QUITE A BIT /PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-
2.00 INCH RANGE/. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...AND A RATHER WEAK MEAN-FLOW /COUPLED WITH
HIGH MOISTURE/ IS WHY THERE ARE HIGH CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL IS EVEN HIGHER IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS SLOWER SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD MEAN UL DYNAMICS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL
ALL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING-NIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT THEREFORE ARGUE
WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THE 07/00-12Z TIME-FRAME.
FURTHERMORE...THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A RAINFALL AMOUNT
RANGING FROM 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES TO MORE THAN 2.00
INCHES ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS VALID FOR 12Z TODAY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ANALYZE THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP TO DECIDE IF/WHEN THE DISSEMINATION OF A
FLOOD WATCH SHOULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS. /29
.LONG TERM...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EDGING SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY...LIFTING VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFTING MORE INTO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY. FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY WITH BRISK NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES. WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THE WRF/NAM
DEPICTION DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
WE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER NONE THE LESS. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND
VERY INTENSE WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS. WE REMAIN CAUTIOUS THAT A LARGE MCS COULD TAKE FIRMER
CONTROL OF INGEST OF THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER PRECIPITATION FOCUS...BUT BETTER INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS WILL BE MORE INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY LATE TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN MENTION OF FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OBVIOUSLY WILL
REMAINED TUNED TO ADDITIONAL FORECAST TRENDS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A BREAK IN
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BUT A WEAKER TRAILING IMPULSE
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
LOOKS CAPABLE OF DRAGGING DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUS
CHANCES FOR THUNDER.
BEYOND THAT...UPPER HEIGHTS APPEAR POISED TO CLIMB FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH RIDGE CENTER BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE NUDGING FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY. MONSOONAL FETCH LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL THIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO STEER MOISTURE AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OUR WAY. SO FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY
AND WARMER. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 63 75 59 / 60 80 30 30
TULIA 89 64 72 59 / 50 80 50 30
PLAINVIEW 90 65 72 60 / 40 80 50 40
LEVELLAND 91 66 75 62 / 40 80 50 40
LUBBOCK 92 67 74 62 / 30 80 60 50
DENVER CITY 91 67 77 63 / 40 70 40 40
BROWNFIELD 91 68 76 62 / 30 70 50 40
CHILDRESS 95 70 76 64 / 30 80 80 50
SPUR 92 71 76 63 / 20 60 80 60
ASPERMONT 94 74 81 66 / 10 50 80 70
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH CONVECTION INTO
TONIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW FFG IN THE WEST. RAINFALL RATES...MOVEMENT
AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE KEY ITEMS TO MONITOR. TRAINING OF
ECHOES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER SATURATED GROUND WILL BE OF HIGH
CONCERN. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ALSO HIGHLIGHTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SEVERE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CWA
WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
UPPER LOW OVER WAS OVER THE WEST VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY BORDER AT
23Z/7PM AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND WILL LIFT
NORTH AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. LEANED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...ARW AND CONTINUITY...THEN
TRIM BACK POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND
FROM THE WEST. ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
START WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND SHIFT POPS AXIS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY. ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUNDAYS
CONVECTION AND LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WANE MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
DON`T BLINK. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CONUS
WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN STALL EAST-WEST ALONG THE
MASON DIXON FOR MID WEEK.
MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MID-WEST ON TUESDAY. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY STRONG
CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT REACH OUR FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING
TUESDAY OR SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE
THEN STRENGTH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS ROBUST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE STORMS
FALLING APART AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BLOCK SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF FRONT...HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE OF AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...ESP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL TREND WARMER...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS ANTICIPATED PER INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD AID IN ADIABATIC WARMING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH 85H TEMPS APPROACHING +20 DEG C...SURFACE
READING SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE L-M
90S PENDING SUNSHINE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AVERAGE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...
RADAR MAINTAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG A ROA-LWB LINE TIL
09Z...THEN SHIFTING IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. NOT THINKING THUNDER AS
STABILITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH
ROA/LWB TO ACCOUNT FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CASE WILL BE WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALLOW CIGS TO INCREASE.
OVERALL THOUGH...THINK THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE ARE GOOD...THANKS TO HIGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS AND WINDS STAYING LIGHT. LOW CIGS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
THAN FOG WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS FROM WV TO PA TODAY AND WEAKENS. MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM
LWB-ROA-DAN NORTHEAST. ATTM WILL LEAVE VCSH IN...AND THINK AFTER
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG...VFR CIGS TO TAKE US FROM MID-LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY FORM
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING FROM LWB TO LYH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF
VFR WX ON TUESDAY.
ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>020.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY. AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.
ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES. THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.
MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.
THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BEACHES...
BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ052-060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RENEWED THIS AFTERNOON WELL EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN SUNDAY. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH....WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NEXT
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW AND GRAVITY WAVE WHICH TRIGGERED THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
MARICOPA COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DEPARTED WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT SUPPORTING THESE STORMS HAS ALSO MOVED
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE STRIPPED THE VAST MAJORITY
OF POPS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC BASIN...AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE IN
MIXING RATIOS ABOVE THE H5 LAYER. VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD FURTHER
REDUCED MEAN ATMOSPHERIC MIXING RATIOS IN THE SFC-H5 LAYER THROUGH
THE DAY...AND BEST SUPPORTING GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION PRIMARILY LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/458 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015/
TODAY...
THERE IS A MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER
ARIZONA. EARLIER THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO HAD
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 40S AND BLYTHE DROPPED TO NEAR 50. DEW POINTS
HAVE GONE BACK UP...MOST NOTICEABLY AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO. MEANWHILE
DEW POINTS HAVE STAYED WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...EMANATING FROM
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH IS HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DESPITE THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CIN DEPICTED
IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING THOUGH NOT AS
MUCH AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. FOR LATER TODAY...MODELS NOT
OPTIMISTIC ON STORM COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
OTHER MODELS. WHILE WE TEND NOT TO GET MUCH ACTIVITY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MORE THAN ONE MODEL IS INDICATING A 500
MB SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST TAKES
OVER. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL INCREASE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTER MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA...WITH DRY AIR WEST OF THERE. ALSO A VORT
LOBE SWINGS THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA
AS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
INDICATING SOME DIFLUENCE RELATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. NOT
KNOWING JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...MADE SOME JUST
SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS.
THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY BUT IS REPLACED
WITH RENEWED TROUGHING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. THUS THE
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE BEING SHIFTED FURTHER EAST...TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE BIT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST WITH MOISTURE IMPROVING OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS. THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION THE
ECMWF. WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER AND WHICH COULD OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE THE MOISTURE INCREASE.
TOOK CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY EXPANDED POPS TO PINAL COUNTY.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH
HIGHS NUDGING UP ABOVE 105.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH CIGS CLEARING MID
MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
CONFINED MAINLY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ELY SFC WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT AROUND TO WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIMITED AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND GUSTS AT KBLH MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK...PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WELL TO
THE EAST OF PHOENIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY ACTIVE REGIONS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY MAY LACK
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL RETREAT BACK INTO A 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ALL WEEK...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE GUSTINESS THAN IS TYPICAL DURING MONSOON SEASON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...MO/HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
458 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE LIMITED TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STORM CHANCES REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH LESS
ACTIVITY THAN WAS SEEN SUNDAY. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MONSOON MOISTURE BEING
CONFINED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FOR SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
LATE NIGHT STORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY FROM
BACK-BUILDING STORMS THAT HAD BEEN OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
FAR SOUTHWEST YAVAPAI. THOSE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED OUTFLOW ALONG WITH
EVEN EARLIER STORMS FROM CENTRAL YAVAPAI WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE
TRIGGERED NEW STORMS OVER NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY AND AS OF THIS
WRITING ISOLATED WEAK ECHOES OVER METRO PHOENIX. THERE IS A MOISTURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER ARIZONA. EARLIER
TONIGHT THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO HAD DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 40S AND BLYTHE DROPPED TO NEAR 50. DEW POINTS HAVE GONE
BACK UP...MOST NOTICEABLY AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO. MEANWHILE DEW
POINTS HAVE STAYED WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
METRO PHOENIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE...EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DESPITE THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN DEPICTED IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
INDICATING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
MORNING THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. FOR LATER
TODAY...MODELS NOT OPTIMISTIC ON STORM COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. WHILE WE TEND NOT TO GET MUCH
ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MORE THAN ONE MODEL IS
INDICATING A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA. THUS REINTRODUCED
POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANTICIPATE BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST TAKES
OVER. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL INCREASE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTER MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA...WITH DRY AIR WEST OF THERE. ALSO A VORT
LOBE SWINGS THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA
AS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
INDICATING SOME DIFFLUENCE RELATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. NOT
KNOWING JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...MADE SOME JUST
SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS.
THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY BUT IS REPLACED
WITH RENEWED TROUGHING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. THUS THE
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE BEING SHIFTED FURTHER EAST...TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE BIT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST WITH MOISTURE IMPROVING OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS. THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION THE
ECMWF. WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER AND WHICH COULD OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE THE MOISTURE INCREASE.
TOOK CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY EXPANDED POPS TO PINAL COUNTY.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH
HIGHS NUDGING UP ABOVE 105.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PHOENIX METRO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AT KPHX
AND SOMEWHAT LOWER AT KSDL/KIWA. CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LOWER TO 6K FT
AT KPHX THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND GUSTS AT KBLH MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK...PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WELL TO
THE EAST OF PHOENIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY ACTIVE REGIONS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY MAY LACK
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL RETREAT BACK INTO A 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ALL WEEK...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE GUSTINESS THAN IS TYPICAL DURING MONSOON SEASON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AIR TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION... VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FINALLY
WINDING DOWN ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AT 3 AM AFTER RAINING FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA IS LIKELY WORKED OVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE PER HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION TO AFTER 11 AM...WITH STORMS MOST
LIKELY FORMING OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND EASTERN RIM FIRST...AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY IS LOOKING
SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN AZ.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD BE SEEING DRY WEATHER WITH
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO
PAYSON. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES PER MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS SHOW THE MONSOON PLUME TO PUSH WESTWARD STARTING SATURDAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW SUIT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE..ISOLD-SCT TSRA/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF COCONINO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED BTWN 17-04Z
TODAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CIRCULATION PATTERN GOING TODAY FOR A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
RESULTING IN LESS STORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. && &&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION & FIRE WEATHER...TEC
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE LIMITED TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STORM CHANCES REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH LESS
ACTIVITY THAN WAS SEEN SUNDAY. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MONSOON MOISTURE BEING
CONFINED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FOR SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
LATE NIGHT STORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY FROM
BACK-BUILDING STORMS THAT HAD BEEN OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
FAR SOUTHWEST YAVAPAI. THOSE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED OUTFLOW ALONG WITH
EVEN EARLIER STORMS FROM CENTRAL YAVAPAI WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE
TRIGGERED NEW STORMS OVER NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY AND AS OF THIS
WRITING ISOLATED WEAK ECHOES OVER METRO PHOENIX. THERE IS A MOISTURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER ARIZONA. EARLIER
TONIGHT THE SURFACE DEW POINT AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO HAD DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 40S AND BLYTHE DROPPED TO NEAR 50. DEW POINTS HAVE GONE
BACK UP...MOST NOTICEABLY AT YUMA AND EL CENTRO. MEANWHILE DEW
POINTS HAVE STAYED WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
METRO PHOENIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE...EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DESPITE THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN DEPICTED IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
INDICATING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
MORNING THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. FOR LATER
TODAY...MODELS NOT OPTIMISTIC ON STORM COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. WHILE WE TEND NOT TO GET MUCH
ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MORE THAN ONE MODEL IS
INDICATING A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA. THUS REINTRODUCED
POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANTICIPATE BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST TAKES
OVER. ACCORDINGLY...HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL INCREASE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTER MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA...WITH DRY AIR WEST OF THERE. ALSO A VORT
LOBE SWINGS THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA
AS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
INDICATING SOME DIFFLUENCE RELATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. NOT
KNOWING JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...MADE SOME JUST
SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS.
THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY BUT IS REPLACED
WITH RENEWED TROUGHING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. THUS THE
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE BEING SHIFTED FURTHER EAST...TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE BIT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST WITH MOISTURE IMPROVING OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS. THE GFS IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION THE
ECMWF. WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER AND WHICH COULD OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE THE MOISTURE INCREASE.
TOOK CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY EXPANDED POPS TO PINAL COUNTY.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH
HIGHS NUDGING UP ABOVE 105.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS RATHER
LOW. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON STRONG SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS MOVED INTO THE AREA...
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH...AND SHIFTING THE PREDOMINANT WEST WIND TO A
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. HAVE EXPECTED WINDS TO RETURN BACK TO
THE WEST...AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED...AFTER THE OUTFLOW WINDS
DISSIPATED BUT THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOW LOW THAT
WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT LATER THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KPHX. CANNOT RULE OUT WINDS LATER RETURNING
TO THE WEST DUE TO A LONG-TRAVELING OUTFLOW WIND GENERATED FROM
STORMS IN LA PAZ COUNTY...BUT WILL NOT PUT THIS POTENTIAL OUTCOME
INTO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE REMOVED WEST WINDS FROM THE
PHOENIX TAFS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
LESS OF A THREAT FOR STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SKIES TO BE GENLY CLEAR AT KIPL AND KBLH
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SOUTH
NEXT 24 HOURS AT KBLH...BECOMING LOCALLY GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY AFTN.
LESS CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AT KIPL...THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST
LESS THAN 15KT BUT MAY BRIEFLY SWING TO THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK...PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WELL TO
THE EAST OF PHOENIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY ACTIVE REGIONS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY MAY LACK
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL RETREAT BACK INTO A 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ALL WEEK...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE GUSTINESS THAN IS TYPICAL DURING MONSOON SEASON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG INVERSION MAY HOLD JULY
GLOOM OVER SOME COASTAL AREAS AGAIN TODAY...WHILE AREAS FARTHER
INLAND SLOWLY CLEAR. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL JULY DAY. FARTHER
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER
TODAY AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
SPREADS INLAND. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN FURTHER INLAND COOLING AND PERIODS OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO THE DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE
MTS/DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z MIRAMAR RELEASE...THE 12Z NAM...AND EVEN
THE LIMITED EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE PASSES AT 09Z SHOW INCREASED
INSTABILITY TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR LAYER PW...WHILE LOWER
LEVEL OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MTS. WINDS BELOW 500 MBS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND HAVE
BACKED TO THE SE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MOISTURE BELOW 9000 FT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGHER LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE 500
MBS GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE FROM THE SW. COUPLE THIS WITH FULL
HEATING...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
OVER THE MTS...AND MOVING OFF INTO THE DESERTS.
THE 12Z NAM12 SHOWS THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND HAS WEAK VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDED LIFT. THE 14Z HRRR RUN ALSO HAS
CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALL ALONG THE MTN CRESTS BY 20Z.
EXPECT A FEW STRONG CELLS WITH GUSTY DOWNDRAFT OUTFLOWS...CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE MARINE
STRATUS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES...WHILE
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MTS AND DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A STRONG 11 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED NEAR 2950 FT MSL.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THU. FALLING/HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
FURTHER COOLING THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND TEN DEGREES F BELOW AVERAGE. THE DRYING ALOFT WILL SNUFF
OUT ANY CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER TODAY.
GRADUALLY WARMER THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THE MARINE LAYER DECREASES.
&&
.AVIATION... 061450Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC-BKN STRATUS FILLING THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...WITH BASES 1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS 2900-3200
FT MSL...WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH 1900
UTC...WITH BKN-OVC STRATUS 2000-3000 FT MSL LINGERING WITHIN 10 SM
OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 07/0200 UTC...INCLUDING KCRQ
AND KSAN. BETTER CHANCE OF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST CLEARING. 11 DEG
C MARINE LAYER INVERSION THIS MORNING. 07/0200-1500 UTC...OVC
STRATUS FILLING IN OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS AGAIN...WITH BASES
1800-2200 FT MSL AND TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MODERATE-TO-HIGH.
MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE 1900-07/0200 UTC TIME-PERIOD OVER
THE MTNS AND DESERTS...WITH BASES 8000-10000 FT MSL AND CB TOPS TO
40000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE... 750 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND MY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND COMBINE WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO MUCH OF THE INLAND BIG BEND AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF
STORMS.
THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING WAS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 850-700 MB
COULD HELP SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]...ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [636 AM EDT]...
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 91 73 94 72 93 / 60 20 50 20 40
PANAMA CITY 88 78 89 75 89 / 40 10 30 10 30
DOTHAN 90 73 94 73 94 / 30 20 30 10 30
ALBANY 91 73 94 73 94 / 30 20 40 20 40
VALDOSTA 91 72 95 73 95 / 50 20 40 20 40
CROSS CITY 92 73 93 72 93 / 40 20 50 20 40
APALACHICOLA 89 77 90 75 90 / 40 10 30 10 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...PETERSON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...
AVIATION...WESTON/PETERSON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOME DRIER AIR HAS
CREEPED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A VORT MAX THAT HAD PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE GFS DID NOT QUITE SHOW THE EXTENT OF THIS DRYING. THERE WAS
LIKELY A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
HOWEVER...THIS WAS COMING AT THE EXPENSE OF QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS. THE SLIGHT DRYING AND LINGERING CLOUDINESS SHOULD ACT
TO DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTION. THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
WERE SHOWING. HOWEVER...ONCE LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS GET
GOING...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THE HRRR AND WRF LIKE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE GREATEST
COVERAGE...BUT THINK THAT THE EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION WILL
GENERATE THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. HAVE MADE
MINOR POP AND WEATHER GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
TRENDS...THINKING THAT SCATTERED POPS WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS LAST NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING.
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO TS 17-20Z ALONG COAST EXCEPT 18Z-21Z DAB.
LATER ONSET FOR INTERIOR AERODROMES WITH HIGHEST PROBS 20Z-24Z.
LINGERING DEBRIS RA AND A FEW TS RUMBLES POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THESE WINDOWS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO WIND/SEA CONCERNS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE WATERS PRODUCES A LIGHT-GENTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BREEZE. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOULD BE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
847 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.
THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* MVFR VIS THIS MORNING.
* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
* MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ/MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT ONE
TO TWO HOURS...WHILE DENSE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING PRECIP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DESPITE
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH TIMING/COVERAGE. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THIS PRECIP COULD ARRIVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO MOVED UP TIMING A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A POSSIBLE EARLIER ARRIVAL SEEMS PROBABLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUE TO
STEADILY PROGRESS EAST. WITH EASTWARD EXPANDING INSTABILITY AXIS
TODAY...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR...THAN AN EVEN EARLIER ARRIVAL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP
LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDER ALSO
LIKELY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT ONLY SHIFT
THE WINDS...BUT ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IFR IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ/MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
431 AM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO 30KT ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DID
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY
LATER THAN THE START TIME TO THE ADVISORY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SOME SLIGHTLY VARIABILITY
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DO LOOK
LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ONCE
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
704 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.
THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
* MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT ONE
TO TWO HOURS...WHILE DENSE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING PRECIP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DESPITE
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH TIMING/COVERAGE. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THIS PRECIP COULD ARRIVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO MOVED UP TIMING A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A POSSIBLE EARLIER ARRIVAL SEEMS PROBABLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUE TO
STEADILY PROGRESS EAST. WITH EASTWARD EXPANDING INSTABILITY AXIS
TODAY...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR...THAN AN EVEN EARLIER ARRIVAL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP
LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDER ALSO
LIKELY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT ONLY SHIFT
THE WINDS...BUT ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IFR IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION
LATER THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
431 AM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO 30KT ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DID
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY
LATER THAN THE START TIME TO THE ADVISORY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SOME SLIGHTLY VARIABILITY
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DO LOOK
LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ONCE
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.
CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE KGCK/KDDC
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR KHYS, WHERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER AROUND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15-25 KT BETWEEN 12Z-
18Z AND THEN NORTHERLY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 60 78 57 / 60 70 20 10
GCK 80 60 79 57 / 40 40 10 10
EHA 81 59 78 60 / 40 50 20 20
LBL 85 62 78 59 / 60 60 20 20
HYS 81 59 78 56 / 60 50 10 10
P28 90 64 76 61 / 70 80 50 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.
ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.
BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LAST
NIGHT...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS FIVE HUNDRED FEET. THIS LOW STRATUS
SPREAD ACROSS KPAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH KEVV/KOWB BEFORE
THEIR BASES CLIMB TO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE FOG HAS BEEN LESS OF A
PROBLEM THIS MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBYS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS...BUT TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS.
THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...THEN A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.
PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.
HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.
NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
WILL ALL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO LIFR TODAY...BEGINNING DURING
THE MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. AT
KSAW...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AS MDT TO
AT TIMES HVY SHRA ARRIVE. COULD BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. WIND SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT. COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.
AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL
INTO WESTERN WI AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX
FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH
METRO...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.
GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING KEAU AROUND 19Z. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF KEAU WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IFR/LOW MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON IN
THE SHOWERS AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15G25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
KMSP...CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHRA WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NNW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
023>025.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1051 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATE STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
VERTICAL TOTALS APPROACHING 27-30 DEG C. WITH SFC MOISTURE/THETA-E
SLOWLY CREEPING BACK IN...DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S AND H3
UPPER JET/DIFFLUENCE MOVING IN FROM THE W...MODIFIED 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING INDICATES FAVORABLE MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT AND SOME
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY E
OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO GRENADA. WITH BEST VERTICAL TOTALS PER
KLCH/KLIX SOUNDINGS AND HI-RES ARW/NMM AND HRRR INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT IN E/NE LA AND MOVING NE...ADJUSTED HWO/GRAPHICS TO
REFLECT THIS. TIMING LOOKS MAINLY IN THE MID AFTERNOON FOR
DEVELOPMENT BUT LEFT SOME POPS A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING STORMS. ADJUSTED POPS/QPF WESTWARD DUE TO HI-RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION IN REGION
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOK GOOD OVERALL IN THE
LOW 90S. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS IFR CIGS AT KGLH AND
KGWO. THESE SHOULD LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITES FOR LOCAL IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON. /SW/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...IT HAS BEEN A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT THAN
PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. CURRENT SATELLITE AND
ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WHICH IS
REFLECTED BY THE MID 60 DEWPOINTS BEING OBSERVED. THIS IS ABOUT 1-3
DEGREES DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS THAT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS RESIDING OVER THE REGION...AND
LIKELY HAVING SOME CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER.
TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER AIR THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE DURING
THAT TIME MODELS(PARTICULARLY THE HI-RES SUITE) HAD NOT BEEN
DEPICTING THE EXPECTED WEATHER SCENARIO THE BEST...THEY WERE A LOT
WETTER/MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT IS BEING SHOWN FOR TODAY. THIS LENDS
SOME CONFIDENCE THAT COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. IN
FACT...ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE SSEO INDICATE THE BEST LOCATION
FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
WITH LOWER POPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT MORE CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WAIT
UNTIL AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP AS CURRENT DRY AIR SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A
BIT MOISTER AIR AS DEPICTED BY AN INCREASE IN THETA-E VALUES AND PW
VALUES(EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON). IN TERMS OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE GREAT TODAY THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM GIVEN
VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 27-29C AND CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG AMONG OTHER
PARAMETERS. HAVE KEPT THE LIMITED RISK IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS BUT WILL
SHRINK THE AREA TO BETTER FIT WHERE STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A CONDITIONAL RISK AS
PARAMETERS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR A STRONG STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING ANY CONVECTION IS LOWER.
AFTER TODAY RAIN CHANCES START TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STALLED FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO GET WARMER. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. /JC/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
INCREASING HEAT AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEST DESCRIBE THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST. NWP GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS
WE GO FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HAVE STUCK WITH THE LOW GUIDANCE POPS GIVEN RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR/LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA)/ WELL-MIXED RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER LAYER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. WITH THAT SAID...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
FOR A SOLID RIDGE IN MID JULY (H500 TEMPS ~ -8 DEG C) AND COMBINED
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HEAT SHOULD RESULT RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SO STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE.
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN TO KEEP TSTM
COVERAGE LIMITED. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO REACH THE MID
90S...IT LOOKS LIKE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 F RANGE WILL BE MORE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DELTA REGION. THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 72 92 73 / 22 16 8 8
MERIDIAN 90 70 91 70 / 30 16 5 3
VICKSBURG 91 72 92 73 / 18 12 7 8
HATTIESBURG 93 73 92 73 / 21 16 6 10
NATCHEZ 89 74 91 74 / 16 12 9 9
GREENVILLE 90 74 92 74 / 21 12 3 8
GREENWOOD 88 70 90 73 / 22 16 6 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/SW/JC/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THIS
MORNINGS UPDATE. NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO HOLD A
STRATUS DECK ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF BUT SATELLITE IS SHOWING THIS
TO BE BREAKING UP SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED. SATELLITE AND OBS STILL
SHOW SOME AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.
HAZE IS ALSO BEING REPORTED AND OBSERVED ACROSS SOME AREAS. IN
ADDITION...REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS AS RADAR IS CLEAR AND LOWERED POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE FOR THE MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR
THE ABOVE HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LOW...WAS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH NE MT.
THIS ENERGY WAS COMBINING WITH LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
SHOWERS AND SHOWED THEM INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SE MT AROUND
12Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED SATURATED LOW TO MID LAYERS FROM KBIL S
AND E THIS MORNING...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND KBIL
TO CHANCE POPS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY E AND OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...WHERE THE BEST LIFT FROM THE WAVE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT
STRATUS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...THEN
SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED-V IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO JUST
BELOW 700 MB. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE SREF. LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SMOKE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BASED ON THE ABOVE.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEPT SMOKE IN THE GRIDS DUE TO THE CONTINUED
LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASED MIXING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE SE ZONES. SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A STRONG WAVE
MOVING E THROUGH WY. THE WY WAVE WILL HELP PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
N INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS...HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...INVERTED TROUGH...INCREASING MOISTURE
AND THE SREF SHOWING POSSIBLY 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. SIMILAR
PATTERN PERSISTS FOR TUE NIGHT AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER S
INTO THE AREA SO INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS. BETTER MIXING ON TUE
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SHEAR AND CAPES LOOK TOO WEAK
TUE/TUE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY WARM WEATHER
AND SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IT/S DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A 500-MB LOW LIFTING OUT OF CALIFORNIA AND
SHEARING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES MONTANA. THE 00
UTC ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE LAST SEVERAL GFS SOLUTIONS BY HAVING
THAT WAVE CUT THROUGH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS DESPITE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THAT MAY INCITE A MORE BONAFIDE WARMUP
OVER SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST STORM ACTIVITY
RELEGATED TO NORTHERN MT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THOUGH ANY SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE RIDGE/S AMPLIFICATION COULD CHANGE THAT. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND IN SOME CASES FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY UNTIL MID TO
LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SMOKE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THOUGH SOME LIGHT SMOKE MAY CONTINUE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT.
SCHULTZ/SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 056/081 059/080 058/088 062/090 062/088 062/091
0/B 02/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 075 050/080 051/079 051/085 055/087 056/084 054/088
0/B 14/T 33/T 23/T 23/T 33/T 31/B
HDN 076 056/084 057/083 057/091 060/093 060/091 060/093
1/B 03/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
MLS 073 055/082 058/082 059/090 063/095 064/091 063/090
2/W 02/T 22/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
4BQ 073 055/081 057/082 058/088 063/094 063/090 062/090
2/W 03/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 070 052/077 055/079 055/085 061/093 061/089 061/087
2/W 03/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
SHR 070 052/078 053/077 054/084 056/087 056/086 056/089
2/W 13/T 42/T 22/T 23/T 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
630 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
NO SIGN OF SMOKE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING SO HAVE REMOVED IT
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE MT WHERE N SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP AREAS OF SMOKE OVER THIS PART OF THE REGION. ALSO
ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500` WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE ZERO. ADDED FOG TO A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS AS
WELL...BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS. HAVE THE FOG IN THROUGH
15Z. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER LOW...WAS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH NE MT.
THIS ENERGY WAS COMBINING WITH LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
SHOWERS AND SHOWED THEM INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SE MT AROUND
12Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED SATURATED LOW TO MID LAYERS FROM KBIL S
AND E THIS MORNING...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND KBIL
TO CHANCE POPS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY E AND OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...WHERE THE BEST LIFT FROM THE WAVE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT
STRATUS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...THEN
SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED-V IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO JUST
BELOW 700 MB. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE SREF. LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP SMOKE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BASED ON THE ABOVE.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEPT SMOKE IN THE GRIDS DUE TO THE CONTINUED
LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASED MIXING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE SE ZONES. SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A STRONG WAVE
MOVING E THROUGH WY. THE WY WAVE WILL HELP PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
N INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS...HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...INVERTED TROUGH...INCREASING MOISTURE
AND THE SREF SHOWING POSSIBLY 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. SIMILAR
PATTERN PERSISTS FOR TUE NIGHT AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER S
INTO THE AREA SO INCREASED COVERAGE OF POPS. BETTER MIXING ON TUE
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SHEAR AND CAPES LOOK TOO WEAK
TUE/TUE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY WARM WEATHER
AND SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IT/S DURING THAT TIME FRAME THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A 500-MB LOW LIFTING OUT OF CALIFORNIA AND
SHEARING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES MONTANA. THE 00
UTC ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE LAST SEVERAL GFS SOLUTIONS BY HAVING
THAT WAVE CUT THROUGH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS DESPITE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THAT MAY INCITE A MORE BONAFIDE WARMUP
OVER SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST STORM ACTIVITY
RELEGATED TO NORTHERN MT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THOUGH ANY SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE RIDGE/S AMPLIFICATION COULD CHANGE THAT. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND IN SOME CASES FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY UNTIL MID TO
LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SMOKE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THOUGH SOME LIGHT SMOKE MAY CONTINUE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 056/081 059/080 058/088 062/090 062/088 062/091
2/W 02/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 075 050/080 051/079 051/085 055/087 056/084 054/088
0/B 14/T 33/T 23/T 23/T 33/T 31/B
HDN 076 056/084 057/083 057/091 060/093 060/091 060/093
2/W 03/T 22/T 12/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
MLS 073 055/082 058/082 059/090 063/095 064/091 063/090
3/W 02/T 22/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
4BQ 073 055/081 057/082 058/088 063/094 063/090 062/090
4/W 03/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
BHK 070 052/077 055/079 055/085 061/093 061/089 061/087
3/W 03/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 23/T 22/T
SHR 070 052/078 053/077 054/084 056/087 056/086 056/089
3/W 13/T 42/T 22/T 23/T 22/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AT
THE COAST. DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE
IN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...JUST A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TWEAK TO POPS TODAY. DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT EAST-WEST
GRADIENT BUT LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z WRF NOT
TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN COVERAGE TODAY. WEAK INVERSION JUST ABOVE
700MB MAY BE TO BLAME ESP AS IT ADVECTS INTO THE AREA IN SWRLY FLOW.
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE RISK THROUGH
MID MORNING LARGELY CONFINED TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND WEAKENS. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BYPASS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE
NW AND N. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED
FRONT TO OUR N WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING
TROUGHINESS TO OUR W TODAY. THEN THERE IS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING AND SLUGGISHLY MOVING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST AT THE COAST WITH THE AIRMASS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER AS YOU MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AND TRAIL THE POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE WELL
INLAND.
LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A LINGERING
RISK AT THE COAST WHERE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
MAY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAINLY MID
80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THESE TEMPS ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. SOME STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE WILL RUN
ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP OVER 1.8 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW GREATEST MOISTURE ABOVE H30
AND THEREFORE THINK THERE WILL BE CIRRUS STREAMING UP THROUGH THE
AREA BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS. OVERALL COUNTING
ON SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND SOME
DIURNALLY FORCED CU AND AN ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR FURTHER
INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRI IT WILL BE
SPRAWLED FROM WEST TO EAST EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EAST OVER TO
BERMUDA. LOOKS LIKE H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURS INTO FRI WITH A
FALLING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND KEEP LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION MAINLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND FURTHER INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A
GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THE
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING BY OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WED NIGHT INTO THURS WITH SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. THIS
MAY ACT TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND STEER ANY
DEBRIS CLOUDS OR STORMS EAST TOWARD THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH.
EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE...WITH
PLENTY OF MID SUMMER SUNSHINE TO HELP. WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S MOST
PLACES...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND EXPECT SOME
SPOTS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT.
BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH STRONGER NW WINDS
DEVELOPING ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE
RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND MAY DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS MAY ACT
TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH OR MAKE THEM MORE VARIABLE AND
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PERHAPS A FEW COMING ASHORE AROUND BRUNSWICK
COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEPICT TOO MANY SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ALONG THE RESULTANT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TODAY...SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND... HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT WINDS
FROM DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...REACHING 4 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND UP
TO 5 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY BEYOND 12 NM. SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. A DECENT LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
THURS INTO FRI. A SHORTWAVE MAY ACT TO DRIVE A TROUGH EAST AND
COULD HELP TO VEER WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION BRIEFLY
BUT OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT A SPIKE IN WINDS AND WIND CHOP EACH AFTN
AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AT
THE COAST. DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE
IN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE RISK THROUGH
MID MORNING LARGELY CONFINED TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND WEAKENS. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BYPASS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE
NW AND N. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED
FRONT TO OUR N WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING
TROUGHINESS TO OUR W TODAY. THEN THERE IS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING AND SLUGGISHLY MOVING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST AT THE COAST WITH THE AIRMASS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER AS YOU MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AND TRAIL THE POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE WELL
INLAND.
LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A LINGERING
RISK AT THE COAST WHERE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
MAY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAINLY MID
80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THESE TEMPS ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. SOME STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE WILL RUN
ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP OVER 1.8 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW GREATEST MOISTURE ABOVE H30
AND THEREFORE THINK THERE WILL BE CIRRUS STREAMING UP THROUGH THE
AREA BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS. OVERALL COUNTING
ON SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND SOME
DIURNALLY FORCED CU AND AN ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR FURTHER
INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRI IT WILL BE
SPRAWLED FROM WEST TO EAST EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EAST OVER TO
BERMUDA. LOOKS LIKE H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURS INTO FRI WITH A
FALLING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND KEEP LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION MAINLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND FURTHER INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A
GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THE
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING BY OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WED NIGHT INTO THURS WITH SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. THIS
MAY ACT TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND STEER ANY
DEBRIS CLOUDS OR STORMS EAST TOWARD THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH.
EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE...WITH
PLENTY OF MID SUMMER SUNSHINE TO HELP. WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S MOST
PLACES...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND EXPECT SOME
SPOTS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT.
BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH STRONGER NW WINDS
DEVELOPING ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE
RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND MAY DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS MAY ACT
TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH OR MAKE THEM MORE VARIABLE AND
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PERHAPS A FEW COMING ASHORE AROUND BRUNSWICK
COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEPICT TOO MANY SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ALONG THE RESULTANT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TODAY...SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND... HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT WINDS
FROM DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...REACHING 4 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND UP
TO 5 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY BEYOND 12 NM. SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. A DECENT LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
THURS INTO FRI. A SHORTWAVE MAY ACT TO DRIVE A TROUGH EAST AND
COULD HELP TO VEER WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION BRIEFLY
BUT OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT A SPIKE IN WINDS AND WIND CHOP EACH AFTN
AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AT
THE COAST. DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE
IN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...FROM S TO N.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND WEAKENS. THE BRUNT OF THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BYPASS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE NW AND N.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT TO OUR N WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE N. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING TROUGHINESS TO OUR W
TODAY. THEN THERE IS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND SLUGGISHLY MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST AT THE COAST WITH THE AIRMASS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER AS YOU MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AND TRAIL THE POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE WELL
INLAND.
LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A LINGERING
RISK AT THE COAST WHERE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
MAY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAINLY MID
80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THESE TEMPS ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. SOME STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE WILL RUN
ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP OVER 1.8 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW GREATEST MOISTURE ABOVE H30
AND THEREFORE THINK THERE WILL BE CIRRUS STREAMING UP THROUGH THE
AREA BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS. OVERALL COUNTING
ON SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND SOME
DIURNALLY FORCED CU AND AN ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR FURTHER
INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRI IT WILL BE
SPRAWLED FROM WEST TO EAST EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EAST OVER TO
BERMUDA. LOOKS LIKE H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURS INTO FRI WITH A
FALLING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND KEEP LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION MAINLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND FURTHER INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A
GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THE
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING BY OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WED NIGHT INTO THURS WITH SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. THIS
MAY ACT TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND STEER ANY
DEBRIS CLOUDS OR STORMS EAST TOWARD THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH.
EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE...WITH
PLENTY OF MID SUMMER SUNSHINE TO HELP. WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S MOST
PLACES...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND EXPECT SOME
SPOTS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT.
BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH STRONGER NW WINDS
DEVELOPING ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE
RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND MAY DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS MAY ACT
TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH OR MAKE THEM MORE VARIABLE AND
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PERHAPS A FEW COMING ASHORE AROUND BRUNSWICK
COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEPICT TOO MANY SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ALONG THE RESULTANT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TODAY...SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND...
HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM
DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...REACHING 4 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND UP
TO 5 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY BEYOND 12 NM. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. A DECENT LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
THURS INTO FRI. A SHORTWAVE MAY ACT TO DRIVE A TROUGH EAST AND
COULD HELP TO VEER WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION BRIEFLY
BUT OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT A SPIKE IN WINDS AND WIND CHOP EACH
AFTN AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF KLBB IS MOVING
NORTH AND COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARDS KLBB AND KPVW LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT A TEMPO MVFR DECK MENTION AT
KLBB AND KPVW FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON /13-15 KT
SUSTAINED/. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT TO AFFECT ALL THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED A PREVAILING PRECIP MENTION AND
TRIED TO TIME THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR THE RAINFALL FOR EACH
TERMINAL. WITH THE STORMS WILL COME VARIABLE BREEZY WINDS. ONCE
AGAIN...THERE ARE HINTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW-SCT LOW VFR DECK HAS BEEN
INSERTED FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WX CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE MOVE OUT OF A BENIGN WX PATTERN TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
UA RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...THOUGH IT HAS FLATTENED QUITE A BIT THANKS TO AN UA
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS MOVED ESE FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS
DISTURBANCE THAT IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT. LOOKING CLOSER TO
HOME...SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SE SFC WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE CWA PER 08Z METARS. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE FA TO TRANSLATE NWRD AOA
DAYBREAK THUS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. PER 08Z METARS...THE STRATUS DECK WAS LOCATED AT AND SOUTH
OF MENARD TX WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE N-NW. IF THIS TRAJECTORY
PERSISTS AND THE CLOUD DECK HOLDS TOGETHER...IT MAY INDEED AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND SERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING.
LATER TODAY...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE PROSPECTS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ENDURING S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID TO
INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE BY PROGGED PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50-2.15 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING /DEWPOINTS NEARING THE 70S ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK/.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN AZ WILL PROGRESS
ENE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING LEADING TO
INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE ONLY THING MISSING IS A MESOSCALE
FEATURE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND UL SUPPORT. THIS IS
WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE FRONT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE AREA TODAY...BUT THE TIMING/SPEED OF THE FRONT IS IN
QUESTION. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAS THE FRONT AFFECTING
THE NWRN ZONES BY AOA 07/00Z /AND PUSHING SEWRD WITH TIME/...WITH
SIGNS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN...WRN...AND NWRN ZONES. ON THE OTHER-HAND...HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAS THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NWRN
ZONES BY AOA 06/18Z /WHICH IS A 6 HR DIFFERENCE FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF/ BUT IS ALSO EXHIBITING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE SAME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
QUITE IMPORTANT AS IT WILL DICTATE THE ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WILL ELECT TO HOLD ON TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
FROM 06/15-18Z...AND MAINTAIN THE EXPANSION OF POPS EWRD DURING THE
06/18-00Z TIME PERIOD. AFTN SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATING STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2.0 KJ/KG ACROSS THE
NRN AND NWRN ZONES DURING THE AFTN...DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW OF THOSE STORMS TO APPROACH STRONG LEVELS
/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS/...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS AS QUICK AS WHAT
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF ARE SHOWING...AS IT COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
BIT DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER RATHER WEAK SHEAR COULD
MITIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING THRU TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH
FROM GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL TO MORE OF A LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT...AS THE UA DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WHILST
THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS QUITE A BIT /PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-
2.00 INCH RANGE/. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...AND A RATHER WEAK MEAN-FLOW /COUPLED WITH
HIGH MOISTURE/ IS WHY THERE ARE HIGH CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL IS EVEN HIGHER IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS SLOWER SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD MEAN UL DYNAMICS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL
ALL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING-NIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT THEREFORE ARGUE
WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THE 07/00-12Z TIME-FRAME.
FURTHERMORE...THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A RAINFALL AMOUNT
RANGING FROM 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES TO MORE THAN 2.00
INCHES ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS VALID FOR 12Z TODAY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ANALYZE THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP TO DECIDE IF/WHEN THE DISSEMINATION OF A
FLOOD WATCH SHOULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS. /29
LONG TERM...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EDGING SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY...LIFTING VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFTING MORE INTO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY. FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY WITH BRISK NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES. WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THE WRF/NAM
DEPICTION DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
WE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER NONE THE LESS. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND
VERY INTENSE WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS. WE REMAIN CAUTIOUS THAT A LARGE MCS COULD TAKE FIRMER
CONTROL OF INGEST OF THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER PRECIPITATION FOCUS...BUT BETTER INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS WILL BE MORE INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY LATE TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN MENTION OF FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OBVIOUSLY WILL
REMAINED TUNED TO ADDITIONAL FORECAST TRENDS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A BREAK IN
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BUT A WEAKER TRAILING IMPULSE
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
LOOKS CAPABLE OF DRAGGING DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUS
CHANCES FOR THUNDER.
BEYOND THAT...UPPER HEIGHTS APPEAR POISED TO CLIMB FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH RIDGE CENTER BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE NUDGING FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY. MONSOONAL FETCH LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL THIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO STEER MOISTURE AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OUR WAY. SO FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY
AND WARMER. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 63 75 59 / 60 80 30 30
TULIA 89 64 72 59 / 50 80 50 30
PLAINVIEW 90 65 72 60 / 40 80 50 40
LEVELLAND 91 66 75 62 / 40 80 50 40
LUBBOCK 92 67 74 62 / 30 80 60 50
DENVER CITY 91 67 77 63 / 40 70 40 40
BROWNFIELD 91 68 76 62 / 30 70 50 40
CHILDRESS 95 70 76 64 / 30 80 80 50
SPUR 92 71 76 63 / 20 60 80 60
ASPERMONT 94 74 81 66 / 10 50 80 70
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
933 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 933 AM MONDAY EDT...
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT WSR-88D
TRENDS AND SHAPED LATE MORNING POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK WRFARW.
IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WITH
HIGH PWATS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. RAISED
QPF FOR TODAY. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
MADE MINOR CHANGES FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TODAY. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF STORMS SHOULD
LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT.
POPS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS.
BASICALLY KEEP CHANCE/LOW LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY INTO THE SW VA MTNS/FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTH AND EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A TROUGH AND
SHEARING OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INTO NRN VA/ERN WV...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING. ONE
AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF
LYNCHBURG.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
THE NC COUNTIES TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. MAY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE
SOUTH TODAY THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP. MOS BLEND USED WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...
EXPECT THE PATTERN TO WARM UP THIS PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AND END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TUESDAY
SHOULD BE OUR DRIER DAY THOUGH HOTTER...AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD WV/KY BY WEDNESDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS
WITH LITTLE TO NONE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL HANG ONTO
ISOLATED THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS.
WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT
500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA.
FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO OUR LAST FORECAST TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST...THEN
WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST PER HIGHER POPS...BUT
STILL WARM/SEASONAL WITH 80 TO 85...BUT STILL AROUND 90 OUT EAST.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOG HAS BEEN IN AND OUT AT SOME TAF SITES...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR LESS FOG...THOUGH THE DENSE FOG NEAR BCB/LWB IS NOT
FAR FROM THE AIRPORT.
KEPT CIGS SUB VFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
BCB/ROA/LWB/BLF...WITH SOME VFR TURNING UP BY MIDDAY OUT EAST..AND
OVER THE MTNS AFTER 17Z-18Z.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED
NORTH OF A BLF-LYH LINE...AND STILL HARD TO PINPOINT ANY ONE TIME
TO HAVE PREDOMINANT RAINFALL IN THE TAFS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW PIVOTS NE INTO PA LATER TONIGHT AND WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE WITH VFR EXPECTED EARLY BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOG ROLLS IN OVER AT LEAST LWB/BCB AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD
OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY.
ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.
PC
&&
.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT. WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.
MBK
&&
.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
PC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY. AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.
ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES. THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.
MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.
THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
BEACHES...
BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.
2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.
3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.
4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.
THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.
NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.
FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. LOOK FOR PREVALENT SHRA/TS AT KLSE AND KRST THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THEN CLEARING THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE...PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AT KRST AND 04Z AT KLSE AS
DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY. AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.
ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES. THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.
MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.
THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
BEACHES...
BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
951 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AIR
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SELIGMAN TO TUBA
CITY, TO FOUR CORNERS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SEASONABLY HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THIS
MORNINGS BELLEMONT SOUNDING INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS UP TO AROUND 15K FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL. STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THOUGH POSSIBLY NOT AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. AREAS NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT RESIDE IN THAT
AREA. UPDATES SENT A SHORT TIME AGO TO END MORNING SHOWERS SOUTH
OF I-40, OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/... VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FINALLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AT
3 AM AFTER RAINING FOR MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA IS LIKELY
WORKED OVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE PER HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION TO AFTER 11 AM...WITH STORMS
MOST LIKELY FORMING OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND EASTERN RIM
FIRST...AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN
AZ.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD BE SEEING DRY WEATHER
WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE
TO PAYSON. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SETS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES PER MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS SHOW THE MONSOON PLUME TO PUSH WESTWARD STARTING SATURDAY
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW SUIT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STORMS. ISOLD-SCT
TSRA/-SHRA MAY ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND USTABLE
CIRCULATION PATTERN GOING TODAY FOR A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
RESULTING IN LESS STORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JJ/DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...TC
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
334 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SLOWER TO GET GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BUT THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY WAS QUITE ACTIVE. THIS WILL SET
UP A STRONG EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS OCCURRING TOWARDS THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FROM
ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN THE FOCUS
SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH BREVARD AND REACH TO OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
IN THE EVENING. COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE 50-60 PERCENT...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
TUE-WED...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON TUE WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH ON WED. LIGHT S/SSW MORNING WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO SE/ESE EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST 1.70-1.90 INCHES ON TUE THEN DRIER AIR IS STILL
FORECAST TO INFILTRATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE WED. LATEST MOS HAS
HIGHEST COASTAL POPS IN THE NORTH...TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THEIR 40-50 PERCENT VALUES FOR THE
NORTH COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR. ON WED...20-30 PERCENT ARE
INDICATED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUE...THEN SERLY/ERLY ON WED.
THU-MON...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE CENTER OF MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLC
TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PENINSULA ON THU WILL GET NUDGED
FURTHER SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. ERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS FORECAST EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA.
AS A RESULT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL PCPN CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. CONSENSUS MOS POPS HAVE RISEN FOR SUN/MON AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A BACK DOOR FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZES PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND AND THERE WILL BE A MERGER
BETWEEN THE TWO AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.
THERE IS STILL SOME WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...SO THE STORMS THAT
FORM INLAND WILL PROBABLY PUSH BACK AND TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO EVENING AT SOME OF THE EAST COASTAL SITES. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING. ON TUE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE TYPICALLY MOIST. STEERING FLOW LOOKS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES
ACROSS INLAND SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TUE-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA TUE WILL
LIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA WED-FRI. A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF OF THE
COAST FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD TUE. STEERING FLOW THEN BACKS TO
EASTERLY WED-FRI AND SOME DRYING OCCURS...BRINGING DECREASED STORM
CHANCES TO THE WATERS. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AOB
3 FT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND ADVANCE
INLAND WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 90 74 89 / 40 40 20 20
MCO 74 94 74 92 / 30 50 20 40
MLB 73 88 75 88 / 30 30 20 20
VRB 72 89 73 90 / 30 20 20 20
LEE 75 94 76 92 / 20 40 20 40
SFB 75 93 75 92 / 40 50 20 40
ORL 76 93 76 91 / 30 50 20 40
FPR 71 89 73 89 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GRIDS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
1130 AM CDT
LOOKING AT A MURKY PATTERN TODAY WITH NO SET OF GUIDANCE PICKING
UP ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE MCS OVER IOWA AS A WHOLE HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING...BUT NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD
OF THE MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THINKING THE
STORMS WILL STAY TIED TO THE MCV NORTH OF I-80/I-88 INTO THIS
AFTN AS THE MCV SHIFTS NE INTO WI. HAVE CONCERNS ON THE EFFECT OF
THE MCS CLOUD SHIELD AS IT MAY LIMIT MIXING...HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY. WHILE CAPE VALUES MAY NOT BE VERY ROBUST...THINKING
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR GENERAL TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM
WEST OF I-55 THROUGH THE MID AFTN. BETTER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT STRONG STORMS ARE PROBABLE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK PRETTY GOOD OUTSIDE OF NORTH CENTRAL IL
INCLUDING THE RFD AREA WHERE THE CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.
THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.
* MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR TUESDAY MORNING.
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT TUESDAY.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED EASTWARD
EXPANSION. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL PUTS FIRST ROUND OF THUNDER TO
ORD/MDW CLOSE TO 20Z. AS THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
MAIN STORM COMPLEX...THEY ARE LOSING THEIR INTENSITY. FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF FIRST ROUND OF THUNDER...EXPECT VCSH ON AND OFF UNTIL
THE NEXT ROUND OF TSRA APPROACHES. MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS THUNDER
AT ORD/MDW AGAIN NEAR 02-03Z...LASTING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS...BR...AND OCCL SHOWERS. LOW-BASED INVERSION
EARLY TUESDAY WILL KEEP MVFR LIKELY WITH A CHANCE FOR CEILINGS
DROPPING UNDER 1KFT. THE INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT JUST AFTER 12Z
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
MM
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* HIGH ON MVFR TUESDAY...MEDIUM LOW ON IFR OCCURRING.
* HIGH ON NORTH WINDS OVER 10KT.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
431 AM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO 30KT ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DID
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY
LATER THAN THE START TIME TO THE ADVISORY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SOME SLIGHTLY VARIABILITY
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DO LOOK
LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ONCE
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1136 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
1130 AM CDT
LOOKING AT A MURKY PATTERN TODAY WITH NO SET OF GUIDANCE PICKING
UP ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE MCS OVER IOWA AS A WHOLE HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING...BUT NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AHEAD
OF THE MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THINKING THE
STORMS WILL STAY TIED TO THE MCV NORTH OF I-80/I-88 INTO THIS
AFTN AS THE MCV SHIFTS NE INTO WI. HAVE CONCERNS ON THE EFFECT OF
THE MCS CLOUD SHIELD AS IT MAY LIMIT MIXING...HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY. WHILE CAPE VALUES MAY NOT BE VERY ROBUST...THINKING
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR GENERAL TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM
WEST OF I-55 THROUGH THE MID AFTN. BETTER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT STRONG STORMS ARE PROBABLE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK PRETTY GOOD OUTSIDE OF NORTH CENTRAL IL
INCLUDING THE RFD AREA WHERE THE CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.
THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY.
* NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT TUESDAY.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT ONE
TO TWO HOURS...WHILE DENSE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING PRECIP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DESPITE
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH TIMING/COVERAGE. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THIS PRECIP COULD ARRIVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO MOVED UP TIMING A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A POSSIBLE EARLIER ARRIVAL SEEMS PROBABLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUE TO
STEADILY PROGRESS EAST. WITH EASTWARD EXPANDING INSTABILITY AXIS
TODAY...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR...THAN AN EVEN EARLIER ARRIVAL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP
LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDER ALSO
LIKELY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT ONLY SHIFT
THE WINDS...BUT ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IFR IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM HIGH ON MVFR EARLY TUESDAY.
* MEDIUM HIGH ON WINDS OVER 10KT FROM NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
431 AM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO 30KT ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DID
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY
LATER THAN THE START TIME TO THE ADVISORY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SOME SLIGHTLY VARIABILITY
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DO LOOK
LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ONCE
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1106 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
303 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A
LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN
RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT
LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION
HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS
LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO
SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD
EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT
WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE
SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH
AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW
DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL
SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME
CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND
SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD
KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT
WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME
REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS
FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST.
THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THAT TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS
SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING
WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH
CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE
HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME
POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS
BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70
BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY.
* NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT TUESDAY.
MM
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT ONE
TO TWO HOURS...WHILE DENSE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING PRECIP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DESPITE
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH TIMING/COVERAGE. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THIS PRECIP COULD ARRIVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO MOVED UP TIMING A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A POSSIBLE EARLIER ARRIVAL SEEMS PROBABLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUE TO
STEADILY PROGRESS EAST. WITH EASTWARD EXPANDING INSTABILITY AXIS
TODAY...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR...THAN AN EVEN EARLIER ARRIVAL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP
LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDER ALSO
LIKELY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT ONLY SHIFT
THE WINDS...BUT ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IFR IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM HIGH ON MVFR EARLY TUESDAY.
* MEDIUM HIGH ON WINDS OVER 10KT FROM NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
MM
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
431 AM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
TODAY WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO 30KT ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DID
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY
LATER THAN THE START TIME TO THE ADVISORY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SOME SLIGHTLY VARIABILITY
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE DO LOOK
LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ONCE
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.
CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 60 78 57 / 70 60 20 10
GCK 78 59 79 57 / 70 30 10 10
EHA 79 59 78 60 / 60 40 20 20
LBL 83 62 78 59 / 70 60 20 20
HYS 81 59 78 56 / 70 30 10 10
P28 94 64 76 61 / 90 90 50 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
144 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
ACRS MOST OF SE VA/NE NC. THIS IS WHERE LATEST RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTS SFC BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH SOME
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ADDED "HEAVY RAIN" WORDING TO THE
FORECAST HERE AS WELL. LATEST HRRR PICKING UP WELL ON THIS.
OVERALL...EXPECT COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS TO DIMINISH TO SCATTERED
AFTER 21Z...AS AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT
SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING NORTH INTO NRN VA/DELMARVA REGION.
FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM THE UPPER
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO 2.00". CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING ONE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER ERN/NE NC AND THIS
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE OUTER BANKS. ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE SKIES AVG
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NOTHING ON THE RADAR.WITH THE FRONT VERY
WEAK AND SLIDING N...AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR W AND FILLING
IN/HEIGHTS RISING THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO). A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT
OF FEATURES LATER TODAY (GFS HITTING SEABREEZE HARDER WHILE THE
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE FARTHER INLAND). FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TSTM WORDING THIS AFTN...MAINLY AFTER 18Z WITH POPS
40-50% MOST AREAS (HIGHEST FAR NW AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SE). MAY RAISE POPS TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SOME CELL TRAINING/BACK-
BUILDING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION TO THE MEAN FLOW FROM 600-850MB
(LOW MBE VALUES). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT
NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO. VRB
CLDS- PCLDY TODAY...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND
90F SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARY ECG/ORF/PHF FROM 18Z THROUGH
23Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO RIC AND SBY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN IFR VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES
ESPECIALLY AT ORF...PHF AND ECG BETWEEN 18Z TO 23Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FASTER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL EVENINGS.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. JUST
ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/JAO
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.
TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.
FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.
PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.
FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.
AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.
PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.
HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.
NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.
AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL
INTO WESTERN WI AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX
FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH
METRO...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.
GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
COLD FRONT EXITING INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND SHRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE A COLD
FRONT/FGEN REGION. THIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY WILL END THROUGH 00Z
TUE. FARTHER WEST...MVFR CIGS SHIFTING EAST...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING. HZ/FU ANOTHER ISSUE AS IT HAS BEEN BLOWN SOUTH OVER
WESTERN AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SMOKE IS ADVANCING
SOUTH...AND MAY CLEAR OUT DISSIPATE OVER THE WEST LATE. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN THE SMOKE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOKS
LIKE FOG WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. COULD SEE SOME INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE. WINDS N-NW
AN GUSTY WITH FROPA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
01Z MON. EXPECT VFR TUE.
KMSP...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END THROUGH 20Z-21Z WITH IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH 01Z TUE. MAY SEE A SMOKE
ISSUE INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL LEAVE 6SM HZ FOR NOW. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
AND TUE WITH NORTH WIND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
023>025.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO
CREATE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITYWILL BUILD LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH CONTINUED TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... DEEP CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR FAILED TO
DEVELOP TODAY. SHALLOWER EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP
BRIEFLY ALONG THE NC SEABREEZE AND AT THIS TIME OVER SC SEA
BREEZE. PIEDMONT TROUGH ALSO SEEING SIMILARLY SCANT ACTIVITY.
GIVEN THAT THE NORMAL DIURNAL PEAK IS UPON US AND IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY REAL FORCING LATER ON THIS IS PROBABLY IT. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN INSISTING THAT THE SEABREEZE CONTINUES TO BE PRODUCTIVE BUT
IS NOW FALLING A BIT BEHIND THE 8BALL IN BEING OVERDONE W ITS
INITIALIZATION. EVEN SO...IT IS JULY IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND
WE NEED A STRONGER CAP THAN THE PALTRY ONE IN THE CHS REFERENCED
THIS MORNING TO BRING A COMPLETELY DRY DAY SO THE SMALL POPS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALBEIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY THOUGH WE COULD SEE A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE GULF STREAM CONVECTION AFFECTED THE
VERY IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE
HIGHER THICKNESSES...BUT WILL HELP TO SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD...LIKELY
REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT AND DRIVE AFTN CONVECTION ALONG THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BOUNDARIES. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT MORE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE.
CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY EACH DAY...BUT CONTINUED SW WINDS
WILL KEEP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 75 EACH
NIGHT...FALLING FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE CLOSE OUT
ON THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ILLUSTRATE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EXTENDING BACK AS FAR WEST AS TEXAS. WITH INCREASING
HEIGHTS...FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO
MOVE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DROP SOUTH CLOSE TO
THE AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT WITH INCREASED POPS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH INTO MONDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES AS IN ADDITION TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOKING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RESULTANT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND.
COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NEAR THE COAST. CONVECTION WILL DIE
DIURNALLY THIS EVENING...WITH A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. SOME
CONVECTION MAY REFIRE TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT ON THE TIMING AT THIS
TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT BY
ABOUT 5 KTS AS A VERY WEAK LLJ DEVELOPS. EXPECTING NO WORSE THAN
ABOUT THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE THUS PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORIES OR
HEADLINES. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE
BUMP IN SPEED COULD CHANGE A FEW ZONES` FORECAST FROM 3 TO 4 FT TO
JUST A MAINLY 4 FT FCST AS THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT
GRADIENT DIMINISHES EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND SW WINDS TO PERSIST IN
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION THIS PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
10-15 KTS...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN/EVE DUE TO THE SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS OF 3-4
FT ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SW WIND WAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE
SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AS THE WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL SEE CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15
KTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE OF WAVE HEIGHTS...AS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH A BLEND OF WIND WAVES AND A
LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS COMING INTO PLAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MBB/DL
MARINE...JDW/MBB/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
537 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF REMNANT
UPPER LOW ON THE PA/OH BORDER. WEAK SHEAR AND NON-EXISTENT DCAPES
IMPLY A VERY LOW CHC OF SVR WX. MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE ISOLD FLOODING FROM ANY TRAINING TSRA. WET
GROUND/LOW FFG VALUES MAKE THE AREA ABNORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD AMTS OF 2+ INCHES
BTWN 21Z-03Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A FFA DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT.
EXPECT SHRA TO DWINDLE W/LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOCUS OF
REMAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG REMNANT LL
JET AND PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NEAR TERM MDLS
MOVE THIS FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 03Z...THEN EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION MUGGY WITH LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY BUT MAINLY RAIN-FREE. WARMING
TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP
LIMIT/CAP OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FAR NWRN PA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 07/00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW AMPLITUDE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES. AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE GIVEN DEGREE OF SPREAD AND MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THIS LARGELY
UNSETTLED AND RECENTLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY RETROGRESSION OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OFF THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCENTRL U.S. THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT WEEK/JULY 13TH AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM CA UPPER LOW
EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERLIES AND TEAMS WITH VORTEX OVER
HUDSON BAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL PA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
BECOMES WAVY AS IT STALLS OUT FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER/MASON DIXON
LINE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN THRU LATE WEEK MOST LKLY
DUE TO MCS REMNANTS OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS TRACKING EWD FROM
THE MID MS/OH VLY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT TIMING/LOCATION
AT THIS POINT. FWIW THE MODEL BIAS IS USUALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
MCS ACTIVITY. PCPN RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CA LOW ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES.
WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SENT 21Z TAF PACKAGE.
ADJUSTED TAFS BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDTIONS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MID DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER
LAKES/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
AIRSPACE TUE NIGHT/WED BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR PA/MD BORDER
THURS INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
517 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF REMNANT
UPPER LOW ON THE PA/OH BORDER. WEAK SHEAR AND NON-EXISTENT DCAPES
IMPLY A VERY LOW CHC OF SVR WX. MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE ISOLD FLOODING FROM ANY TRAINING TSRA. WET
GROUND/LOW FFG VALUES MAKE THE AREA ABNORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD AMTS OF 2+ INCHES
BTWN 21Z-03Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A FFA DUE TO ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT.
EXPECT SHRA TO DWINDLE W/LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOCUS OF
REMAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG REMNANT LL
JET AND PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NEAR TERM MDLS
MOVE THIS FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE
SUSQ VALLEY BY 03Z...THEN EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...LEAVING
THE REGION MUGGY WITH LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY BUT MAINLY RAIN-FREE. WARMING
TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP
LIMIT/CAP OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FAR NWRN PA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 07/00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW AMPLITUDE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES. AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE GIVEN DEGREE OF SPREAD AND MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THIS LARGELY
UNSETTLED AND RECENTLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY RETROGRESSION OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OFF THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCENTRL U.S. THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT WEEK/JULY 13TH AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM CA UPPER LOW
EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERLIES AND TEAMS WITH VORTEX OVER
HUDSON BAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL PA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
BECOMES WAVY AS IT STALLS OUT FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER/MASON DIXON
LINE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN THRU LATE WEEK MOST LKLY
DUE TO MCS REMNANTS OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS TRACKING EWD FROM
THE MID MS/OH VLY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT TIMING/LOCATION
AT THIS POINT. FWIW THE MODEL BIAS IS USUALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
MCS ACTIVITY. PCPN RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CA LOW ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES.
WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MID DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER
LAKES/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
AIRSPACE TUE NIGHT/WED BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR PA/MD BORDER
THURS INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MY CWA
AT THE CURRENT TIME. ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT OVER MD/VA STILL HAS ME
CONFIDENT THAT EVEN MY EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS HELPED
PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...SOME 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. RAP SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES IN THE 500-1000J RANGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE SEEM FAIRLY LOW. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MY FAR SERN ZONES FOR
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE. SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE
THERE...BUT AS OF MID DAY THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER SQUAT
AND NOT ORGANIZED.
MODEL BLENDED QPF OF A .25" TO .50" SEEMS REASONABLE FOR BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS IMPLY
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN PLACES WHERE SOME TRAINING OCCURS.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND 1HR FFG VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN THE HWO. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT MAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DWINDLE THIS EVENING...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AFTER WE
LOSE THE HEATING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE FALLING APART
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD SO OTHER THAN THE SHOWER CHANCES DROPPING
OFF...TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH LEAVING THE REGION MUGGY WITH
LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY BUT MAINLY RAIN-FREE. WARMING
TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP
LIMIT/CAP OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FAR NWRN PA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 07/00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW AMPLITUDE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES. AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE GIVEN DEGREE OF SPREAD AND MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THIS LARGELY
UNSETTLED AND RECENTLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY RETROGRESSION OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OFF THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCENTRL U.S. THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT WEEK/JULY 13TH AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM CA UPPER LOW
EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERLIES AND TEAMS WITH VORTEX OVER
HUDSON BAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL PA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
BECOMES WAVY AS IT STALLS OUT FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER/MASON DIXON
LINE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN THRU LATE WEEK MOST LKLY
DUE TO MCS REMNANTS OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS TRACKING EWD FROM
THE MID MS/OH VLY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT TIMING/LOCATION
AT THIS POINT. FWIW THE MODEL BIAS IS USUALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
MCS ACTIVITY. PCPN RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CA LOW ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES.
WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MID DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER
LAKES/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
AIRSPACE TUE NIGHT/WED BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR PA/MD BORDER
THURS INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
213 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STALL
ALONG JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MY CWA
AT THE CURRENT TIME. ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT OVER MD/VA STILL HAS ME
CONFIDENT THAT EVEN MY EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS HELPED
PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...SOME 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. RAP SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES IN THE 500-1000J RANGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE SEEM FAIRLY LOW. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MY FAR SERN ZONES FOR
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE. SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE
THERE...BUT AS OF MID DAY THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER SQUAT
AND NOT ORGANIZED.
MODEL BLENDED QPF OF A .25" TO .50" SEEMS REASONABLE FOR BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS IMPLY
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN PLACES WHERE SOME TRAINING OCCURS.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND 1HR FFG VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN THE HWO. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT MAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DWINDLE THIS EVENING...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AFTER WE
LOSE THE HEATING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE FALLING APART
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD SO OTHER THAN THE SHOWER CHANCES DROPPING
OFF...TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH LEAVING THE REGION MUGGY WITH
LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY BUT MAINLY RAIN-FREE. WARMING
TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP
LIMIT/CAP OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FAR NWRN PA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK...AND ABOUT 3-4
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 07/00Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW AMPLITUDE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES. AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS LOW
PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE GIVEN DEGREE OF SPREAD AND MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THIS LARGELY
UNSETTLED AND RECENTLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY RETROGRESSION OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OFF THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SCENTRL U.S. THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT WEEK/JULY 13TH AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM CA UPPER LOW
EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERLIES AND TEAMS WITH VORTEX OVER
HUDSON BAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL PA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
BECOMES WAVY AS IT STALLS OUT FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER/MASON DIXON
LINE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN THRU LATE WEEK MOST LKLY
DUE TO MCS REMNANTS OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LOWS TRACKING EWD FROM
THE MID MS/OH VLY...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT TIMING/LOCATION
AT THIS POINT. FWIW THE MODEL BIAS IS USUALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
MCS ACTIVITY. PCPN RISK SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CA LOW ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT LAKES.
WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH RELATIVE CERTAINTY IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY HEAT WAVES OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7+
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS OVER THE STILL MAINLY RAIN FREE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE NUMEROUS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO TREND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DIURNAL COOLING...VERY HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH AT
LEAST MARGINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT MANY SITES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOWER CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MID DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER
LAKES/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
AIRSPACE TUE NIGHT/WED BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR PA/MD BORDER
THURS INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/AFTN TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM...TEMPS WERE RUNNING ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN THE
TREND IN THE FCST...SO THAT WILL BE IMPROVED. OTHERWISE...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED ACROSS THE REGION AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.
IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.
MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.
ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.
ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.
IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.
MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.
ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.
ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE REALIGNED POPS TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHER UPSTATE/NE GA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR. STILL LOOKS LIKE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN DEFERENCE TO CAPE MINIMA ACROSS THAT AREA.
AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.
AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.
AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.
CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.
TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.
MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.
ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMPO
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.
ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT
KAND/KGSP/KGMU FROM 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT AVL AND HKY
SO WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR
SOME FOG AT KAVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S
TO LOWER TO AROUND 2 MILES AT KAVL IN FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.
AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.
AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.
CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.
TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST. POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING. DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.
POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS. MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA. IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT. PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS. OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH. ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION. THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
FOR TONIGHT...NEITHER THE RAP OR HRRR SHOW HARDLY ANY ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
OUR HEATING. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN CLOUDS MOVE IN
TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW...WEAK RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT THE LATEST 12Z NAM
SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME. THE INCOMING FRONT TO OUR NORTH LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY SUPPRESS THE RIDING SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SUPPRESSING OF RIDGE AND FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL YIELD LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOUNDINGS
ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO GET PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING
ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW OVER THE PLAINS
PRODUCES A SW FLOW OVER THE MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER MS AND WEST TN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS FARTHER FROM THE RIDGE. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO TX...A N-NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING SOME UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 89 71 91 / 20 30 20 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 87 70 88 / 20 30 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 87 69 88 / 20 30 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 85 66 87 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SR/DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...THE WORK WEEK IS ROARING TO A START. A COLD
FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST
ENTERING AMA AS OF 20Z. WE ALSO HAVE A SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIRD INGREDIENT...AMPLE MOISTURE. AS OF 20Z...WE ARE SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FIRING ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THERE IS THE SET UP.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BREAKOUT OF THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH SHOW A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST DURATION OF RAIN TO BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. HAVE PAID ATTENTION
TO ONE NOTABLE FEATURE PRESENT ON THE GFS AROUND THE 6Z TIME
PERIOD...AN ENHANCED AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA THAT
MAY PROVIDE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THE FRONT AND SFC LOW EXIT THE AREA...THUS TAKING WITH
IT THE RAINFALL. HAVE UPDATED THIS FORECAST TO HAVE THE DRYING TREND
START IN THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH BOTH OF THE EXITING FEATURES LATE
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...
PRECIP WILL STILL BE ONGOING LATE TUES/EARLY WED AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN LIFT BEHIND AN
ALREADY PASSED FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE TROF
LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH BY MID WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AND THIS FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST THRU LATE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WE SIT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND JUST EAST OF A TROF.
RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH THE CENTER OF THE 594 DM
HIGH RIGHT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE PLACING THE WEST TEXAS REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TERRAIN INFLUENCED CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE IN OUR
DIRECTION. UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.
ALDRICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 69 58 84 / 80 40 20 30
TULIA 61 68 59 82 / 80 50 30 30
PLAINVIEW 62 69 61 82 / 80 60 30 30
LEVELLAND 63 73 61 84 / 80 50 30 30
LUBBOCK 64 73 62 83 / 80 60 40 30
DENVER CITY 66 77 63 85 / 80 50 30 30
BROWNFIELD 64 76 62 85 / 80 60 30 30
CHILDRESS 66 73 64 85 / 90 80 50 30
SPUR 65 75 63 85 / 90 80 50 30
ASPERMONT 68 82 66 88 / 80 80 60 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ022>026-028>032-
034>038.
&&
$$
74/51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1258 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND IT. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER AT ALL SITES AFTER 03Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING TUE. PREFRONTAL STORMS ALSO MAY
IMPACT KPVW AND KLBB THIS AFTN AS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
SCT STORMS AS DISTURBANCEH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS CROSSING THE AREA BY 22Z AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON
SATELLITE/RADAR.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WX CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE MOVE OUT OF A BENIGN WX PATTERN TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
UA RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...THOUGH IT HAS FLATTENED QUITE A BIT THANKS TO AN UA
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS MOVED ESE FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS
DISTURBANCE THAT IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT. LOOKING CLOSER TO
HOME...SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SE SFC WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE CWA PER 08Z METARS. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE FA TO TRANSLATE NWRD AOA
DAYBREAK THUS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. PER 08Z METARS...THE STRATUS DECK WAS LOCATED AT AND SOUTH
OF MENARD TX WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE N-NW. IF THIS TRAJECTORY
PERSISTS AND THE CLOUD DECK HOLDS TOGETHER...IT MAY INDEED AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND SERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING.
LATER TODAY...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE PROSPECTS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ENDURING S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID TO
INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE BY PROGGED PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50-2.15 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING /DEWPOINTS NEARING THE 70S ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK/.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN AZ WILL PROGRESS
ENE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING LEADING TO
INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE ONLY THING MISSING IS A MESOSCALE
FEATURE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND UL SUPPORT. THIS IS
WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE FRONT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE AREA TODAY...BUT THE TIMING/SPEED OF THE FRONT IS IN
QUESTION. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAS THE FRONT AFFECTING
THE NWRN ZONES BY AOA 07/00Z /AND PUSHING SEWRD WITH TIME/...WITH
SIGNS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN...WRN...AND NWRN ZONES. ON THE OTHER-HAND...HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAS THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NWRN
ZONES BY AOA 06/18Z /WHICH IS A 6 HR DIFFERENCE FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF/ BUT IS ALSO EXHIBITING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE SAME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
QUITE IMPORTANT AS IT WILL DICTATE THE ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WILL ELECT TO HOLD ON TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
FROM 06/15-18Z...AND MAINTAIN THE EXPANSION OF POPS EWRD DURING THE
06/18-00Z TIME PERIOD. AFTN SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATING STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2.0 KJ/KG ACROSS THE
NRN AND NWRN ZONES DURING THE AFTN...DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW OF THOSE STORMS TO APPROACH STRONG LEVELS
/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS/...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS AS QUICK AS WHAT
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF ARE SHOWING...AS IT COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
BIT DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER RATHER WEAK SHEAR COULD
MITIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING THRU TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH
FROM GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL TO MORE OF A LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT...AS THE UA DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WHILST
THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS QUITE A BIT /PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-
2.00 INCH RANGE/. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...AND A RATHER WEAK MEAN-FLOW /COUPLED WITH
HIGH MOISTURE/ IS WHY THERE ARE HIGH CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL IS EVEN HIGHER IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS SLOWER SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD MEAN UL DYNAMICS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL
ALL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING-NIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT THEREFORE ARGUE
WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THE 07/00-12Z TIME-FRAME.
FURTHERMORE...THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A RAINFALL AMOUNT
RANGING FROM 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES TO MORE THAN 2.00
INCHES ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS VALID FOR 12Z TODAY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ANALYZE THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP TO DECIDE IF/WHEN THE DISSEMINATION OF A
FLOOD WATCH SHOULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS. /29
LONG TERM...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EDGING SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY...LIFTING VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFTING MORE INTO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY. FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY WITH BRISK NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES. WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THE WRF/NAM
DEPICTION DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
WE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER NONE THE LESS. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND
VERY INTENSE WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS. WE REMAIN CAUTIOUS THAT A LARGE MCS COULD TAKE FIRMER
CONTROL OF INGEST OF THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER PRECIPITATION FOCUS...BUT BETTER INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS WILL BE MORE INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY LATE TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN MENTION OF FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OBVIOUSLY WILL
REMAINED TUNED TO ADDITIONAL FORECAST TRENDS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A BREAK IN
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BUT A WEAKER TRAILING IMPULSE
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
LOOKS CAPABLE OF DRAGGING DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUS
CHANCES FOR THUNDER.
BEYOND THAT...UPPER HEIGHTS APPEAR POISED TO CLIMB FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH RIDGE CENTER BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE NUDGING FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY. MONSOONAL FETCH LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL THIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO STEER MOISTURE AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OUR WAY. SO FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY
AND WARMER. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 75 59 83 / 80 30 30 30
TULIA 64 72 59 81 / 80 50 30 30
PLAINVIEW 65 72 60 81 / 80 50 40 30
LEVELLAND 66 75 62 83 / 80 50 40 30
LUBBOCK 67 74 62 83 / 80 60 50 30
DENVER CITY 67 77 63 85 / 70 40 40 30
BROWNFIELD 68 76 62 84 / 70 50 40 30
CHILDRESS 70 76 64 85 / 80 80 50 30
SPUR 71 76 63 84 / 60 80 60 30
ASPERMONT 74 81 66 87 / 50 80 70 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1205 PM EDT MONDAY EDT...
ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS AXIS FURTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WHICH LEANED CLOSEST TO 14Z HRRR. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE BREAKS AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
AS OF 933 AM MONDAY EDT...
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT WSR-88D
TRENDS AND SHAPED LATE MORNING POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK WRFARW.
IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WITH
HIGH PWATS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. RAISED
QPF FOR TODAY. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
MADE MINOR CHANGES FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TODAY. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF STORMS SHOULD
LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT.
POPS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS.
BASICALLY KEEP CHANCE/LOW LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY INTO THE SW VA MTNS/FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTH AND EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A TROUGH AND
SHEARING OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INTO NRN VA/ERN WV...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING. ONE
AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF
LYNCHBURG.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
THE NC COUNTIES TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. MAY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE
SOUTH TODAY THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP. MOS BLEND USED WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...
EXPECT THE PATTERN TO WARM UP THIS PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AND END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TUESDAY
SHOULD BE OUR DRIER DAY THOUGH HOTTER...AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD WV/KY BY WEDNESDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS
WITH LITTLE TO NONE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL HANG ONTO
ISOLATED THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS.
WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT
500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA.
FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO OUR LAST FORECAST TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST...THEN
WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST PER HIGHER POPS...BUT
STILL WARM/SEASONAL WITH 80 TO 85...BUT STILL AROUND 90 OUT EAST.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...
MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO PENNNSYLVANIA LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED EARLY BEFORE POTENTIAL FOG ROLLS IN OVERNIGHT.
LOCATIONS WHICH RECIEVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ARE
LWB...BCB AND LYH AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD
OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION PER BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SUBJECT TO DAILY
THREAT FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1205 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1205 PM EDT MONDAY EDT...
ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS AXIS FURTHER SOUTH WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WHICH LEANED CLOSEST TO 14Z HRRR. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE BREAKS AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
AS OF 933 AM MONDAY EDT...
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT WSR-88D
TRENDS AND SHAPED LATE MORNING POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK WRFARW.
IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WITH
HIGH PWATS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. RAISED
QPF FOR TODAY. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
MADE MINOR CHANGES FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER TODAY...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TODAY. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF STORMS SHOULD
LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT.
POPS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS.
BASICALLY KEEP CHANCE/LOW LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY INTO THE SW VA MTNS/FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTH AND EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING...
THE ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP TO A TROUGH AND
SHEARING OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTIVATE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE INTO NRN VA/ERN WV...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING. ONE
AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF
LYNCHBURG.
OTHERWISE...COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
THE NC COUNTIES TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. MAY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE
SOUTH TODAY THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP. MOS BLEND USED WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...
EXPECT THE PATTERN TO WARM UP THIS PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS RISING. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FADE AND END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TUESDAY
SHOULD BE OUR DRIER DAY THOUGH HOTTER...AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD WV/KY BY WEDNESDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS
WITH LITTLE TO NONE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL HANG ONTO
ISOLATED THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS.
WED NIGHT...CONVECTION FADES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SWELL HEIGHTS AT
500 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING MORE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO NRN VA/MD/PA.
FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO OUR LAST FORECAST TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST...THEN
WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST PER HIGHER POPS...BUT
STILL WARM/SEASONAL WITH 80 TO 85...BUT STILL AROUND 90 OUT EAST.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S...TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOG HAS BEEN IN AND OUT AT SOME TAF SITES...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR LESS FOG...THOUGH THE DENSE FOG NEAR BCB/LWB IS NOT
FAR FROM THE AIRPORT.
KEPT CIGS SUB VFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
BCB/ROA/LWB/BLF...WITH SOME VFR TURNING UP BY MIDDAY OUT EAST..AND
OVER THE MTNS AFTER 17Z-18Z.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED
NORTH OF A BLF-LYH LINE...AND STILL HARD TO PINPOINT ANY ONE TIME
TO HAVE PREDOMINANT RAINFALL IN THE TAFS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW PIVOTS NE INTO PA LATER TONIGHT AND WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE WITH VFR EXPECTED EARLY BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOG ROLLS IN OVER AT LEAST LWB/BCB AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD
OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY.
ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.
2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.
3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.
4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.
THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.
NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.
FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ